Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC is stuck oscillating at 75,969, with the upper Bollinger band pressing at 79,913 and the lower band supporting at 73,305. The CPI midweek is all about liquidation clusters; whichever side gets hit first will hurt [reference:0].
$ETH is very conflicted; the staking queue has 1.37 million tokens waiting 24 days, and yields have been diluted to 2.2%, yet demand to enter remains blocked.
However, ETFs ran off more than 1.2 billion in October, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is clinging to a three-month low, and on-chain locked tokens and traditional withdrawal channels each tell their own story.
The A-share STAR 50 index gained 7.95% in a week, media stocks were even stronger at 13.6%, but all the money is flowing into the CSI 1000, while the CSI 300 only rose 1.72%, clearly betting on elasticity rather than weighting.
US nonfarm payrolls exploded, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 78%. On Friday, chip stocks reversed and the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, but the whole week still fell 3.4%. Don't mistake an oversold rebound for a reversal.
Now the three markets are each moving on their own; anyone trying to force a single framework will suffer.ETH overall follows the mainstream market's fluctuations, showing more resilience than high Beta altcoins, but it has not yet formed a strong upward momentum. The core logic of Ethereum remains on-chain assets, stablecoins, DeFi, and institutional applications, though funds are watching ETF flows, network activity, and ecosystem capital inflows. Recently, there has been a significant net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs, disturbing risk appetite, and ETH is also hard to completely escape the influence of the broader market. In the short term, it seems more like waiting for macro sentiment and capital flows to provide a new direction. $ETHXRP continues to fluctuate around the payment narrative and regulatory expectations, with clear market divergence. On one side, there is long-term potential in cross-border payments and institutional cooperation; on the other, there is waiting for short-term catalysts to materialize. Current order book shows some support below, but the rebound is not strong, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. Recent progress in US crypto regulatory rules has also brought more attention to payment and compliance narrative assets. Going forward, the key focus is whether trading volume can continue to recover. $XRPTRX's trend is relatively stable, reflecting the support of payment and stablecoin transfer demand for the on-chain fundamentals. TRON's long-term core advantages are low-cost transfers, stablecoin circulation, and mature on-chain application scenarios. Therefore, during market volatility, it tends to be more resilient than purely sentiment-driven assets. However, TRX's short-term explosive power is usually not outstanding; capital focuses more on on-chain transaction fees, stablecoin scale, and ecosystem activity. As long as these fundamentals remain stable, TRX is likely to follow a more defensive rhythm. $TRXOptions traders are splitting their bets, and the divergence between $BTC and $ETH is more telling than either headline number. Over the past 24 hours, bullish volume in Bitcoin options accounted for 54.00% of activity against 46.00% for bearish contracts — 7,896.46 BTC versus 6,725.33 BTC. That is a market still leaning long, but only just. Ethereum tells a sharper story: puts took 55.90% of volume at 128,689.05 ETH, while calls mustered 44.10% at 101,530.12 ETH. On the surface, positioning in Strategy holds 849,327 bitcoins at a cost basis of $75,451; some have already written off six years of hoarding as a total loss.
Spot price over the weekend was about $75,900, barely moving in 24 hours, hovering around the cost line. Saying six years were wasted is a bit much. Stocks definitely can't be closed out together: On Friday Eastern Time, it closed at $128.93, about 14.8% lower than the $151.29 on October 15, the day MSCI approved the new rules. The November review list came out Wednesday night; any adjustments would take effect after the close on November 30.
The list hasn't even been released yet, so hold off on the word "delisting" for now.
$MSTR #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% ADA continues its weak oscillation trend, representing a typical state of "narrative still present, but funds not sufficiently concentrated." The Cardano ecosystem has long-term highlights such as governance upgrades, DeFi, and privacy sidechains, but short-term funds tend to favor highly elastic new themes, causing ADA's attention to be easily diverted. There is some support at low levels, but the rebound strength is limited, indicating that bulls have not yet formed a consensus expectation. The subsequent ecosystem activity and on-chain fund inflow are key to observing the shift between strength and weakness. $ADA
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Good Sunday. Over the weekend, Bitcoin neither accelerated downward nor relieved pressure, consolidating narrowly between 75,500 and 76,400. Before Tuesday's CPI, this looks more like the market is waiting rather than having chosen a direction. Let's first review last week's capital flow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had net inflows only on Wednesday during the five trading days last week, with a total net outflow of about $1.28 billion for the week, the largest since late June, turning from net inflow to net outflow of about $910 million year-to-date. On Friday alone, the net outflow was about $410 million, with IBIT accounting for about $400 million. The Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of about $365 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of outflows. In the US stock market, the Nasdaq fell 3.37% last week, declining for four consecutive weeks, with the December rate hike priced in at about 80%. In summary: the trend has not been broken, and institutional funds have not returned. So what to focus on next: ETF capital flows. Whether the bleeding can be stopped will directly determine if the rebound has momentum. Monday: Asian market opening sentiment, whether semiconductors can continue last Friday's rebound, and Fed official Goolsbee's speech. Tuesday 11/10 21:30: US October CPI, the most important variable next week. After stronger non-farm payrolls, the market is more sensitive to inflation. Also next week, earnings reports from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials; US Treasury market closed on 11/11, liquidity will be thin that day. Geopolitical and AI regulatory news: sentiment is sentiment, wait for the right level to see the reaction. Technicals: Bitcoin is currently at two levels$BTC is stuck oscillating at 75.9K, with the Bollinger upper band at 79.9K and lower band at 73.3K, while the CPI weekly settlement cluster waits on both sides [reference:0]. The ETF ran over 1.2 billion in October, but on-chain staking locked 45.2 million coins; the queue to enter takes 24 days, with two groups each telling their own story.
This week, the STAR 50 led the A-shares with nearly an 8% gain, and media surged 13.6% [reference:2]. However, on Friday, the STAR 50 sharply dropped 5.48%, while baijiu rose 5% against the trend; funds fled growth stocks and rushed into consumer defensive sectors, switching decisively [reference:3].
US nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 pushed the December rate hike bets to 80%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12% on Thursday, and chip stocks rebounded on Friday but the Dow still closed in the red. $ETH
The exchange rate is close to a three-month low, ETFs show no turnaround, and no matter how long the staking queue is, it can't support the price.
In this market, whoever believes in one logic gets hit.Does an inflow of 10,000 BTC to an exchange necessarily mean selling pressure?
Just looking at this number, it's easy to get nervous.
But what if on the same day, 12,000 BTC flowed out of the exchange?
Then, by simply calculating these two data points, the exchange actually had a net outflow of 2,000 BTC.
This is why I think you shouldn't just focus on a single large transfer when looking at exchange fund flows.
And even if there is a net inflow, it doesn't mean these BTC have been sold; it could involve custody, collateral adjustments, or internal transfers.
What really matters is the net flow over several consecutive days and whether the exchange's reserves have changed significantly.
When you observe whale movements, do you pay more attention to single large transfers or the overall net flow of the exchange?$BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Hacker address selling ETH short does not mean they want to crash the market
3100 $ETH exchanged for 6.93 million USDC, but this is being interpreted as a sign of selling pressure.
Where did this money come from: 9 hours ago, coins were received from Tornado, then swapped to stablecoins via Cowswap.
After swapping, it was not withdrawn but deposited into Hyperliquid to open a position.
How is this number calculated: 20x short 8945 $ETH, simultaneously 20x long 263 $BTC.
Opening both sides at once, betting that $ETH will underperform $BTC, not that $ETH will drop.
The 3100 $ETH in hand has already been sold; the position is opened separately.
If they really wanted to crash the market, there’s no need to first open a 20x short position as a warning.
The position opening address is public and can be monitored by anyone.
Betting on exchange rates and crashing the market are two different things.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#$ETH $BTC Can UNI still lead the DeFi trend? Let's look at the wave structure
$UNI is, in my opinion, the strongest and most promising among the mainstream coins besides $ZEC and $HYPE.
Let's discuss UNI's mid-term structure and its upward target:
From the wave structure perspective, UNI's rise since June 5 could be the five-wave structure shown in the chart:
The first wave lasted from June 5 to July 31, rising from 2.32 to 4.58;
The second wave lasted from July 31 to August 14, retracing from 4.58 to 3.17;
The third wave lasted from August 14 to September 23, rising from 3.17 to 10.94;
The fourth wave started on September 23 and is currently nearing its end;
Regarding volume and price relationship, the trading volume during the fourth wave's retracement is significantly lower than the volume during the third wave's rise, indicating relatively low selling pressure recently. Although on October 29 and November 5 there were volume-increasing declines due to the Bn theft incident and the US stock market crash respectively, the volume on these days was still significantly less than the third wave's rising volume, and the price drop was limited. This kind of decline is more likely a low-level shakeout.
From the wave structure perspective, UNI has never broken the support level at 5.8 (the bottom of the third wave's sub-wave 4), maintaining a good upward pattern.
Overall, the probability of the five-wave structure being valid is high.
After the completion of the fourth wave, UNI is expected to have a fifth wave rise. According to wave structure calculations, UNI's fifth wave target could be around $15, and optimistically up to $19.5 $AAVE
AAVE's long-term relevance comes down to one important question: how much demand exists for decentralized borrowing and lending beyond speculative market cycles?
Its lending infrastructure has an established role in DeFi, but sustainable growth requires more than temporary increases in deposits. Borrowing demand, capital efficiency, liquidation management, and protocol revenue will ultimately reveal how durable its ecosystem really is.I always thought those daring to heavily invest this round were bulls, but it turns out the biggest money is hiding on the short side.
On Hyperliquid, Abraxas Capital holds a $452 million position, almost entirely short, with an unrealized profit of $30.77 million. The short exposure is $452 million.
The most heartbreaking comparison: Wintermute's perpetual exposure is $108 million, and it achieved 4 times that.
The positions are straightforward: $BTC $159 million, $HYPE $77.6 million, $ETH $75.27 million, $ZEC $63.51 million, all short.
So where is the bottom?$SEI
Speed is an attractive feature in blockchain infrastructure, but performance alone does not guarantee ecosystem success.
Sei's development as a high-performance Layer-1 makes its application ecosystem particularly important. The real test is whether developers can attract recurring users and meaningful liquidity. Without sustained application demand, even technically impressive networks can struggle to establish lasting competitive advantages.Stop staring at the K-line and first check these three “chip health reports”
The decline of these three coins cannot be explained by the K-line; the real clues lie in supply, unlocking, and order book depth.
$ONE: The seven-year mainnet is shutting down and migrating to Ethereum. This seems more like a project lifecycle endgame rather than a normal pullback. What’s more worth studying is the supply history: tens of trillions of tokens were once issued, but now the market cap is only in the tens of millions. After supply inflation by tens of thousands of times, a “low price” does not equal “cheap,” and the bottom-fishing logic may have been invalid from the start.
$AKE: Total supply is 100 billion, with only 22.8% circulating, about 77 billion still locked. A thin circulating supply means a small amount of capital can easily move the price, so pumping or dumping doesn’t require many chips. What really needs tracking is not the chart but when and how the remaining chips will enter the market.
$PIEVERSE: The price is supported by narrative; once the narrative stops, unlocking becomes the next challenge. When order book depth is insufficient, trying to exit might find no takers.
From a market-making perspective, it’s not about the pattern but how much supply hasn’t come out yet. Before the unreleased chips are digested, the so-called bottom is just a temporary quote.
Add one more background: BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over 100 million in a single week. When capital, chip supply, and narrative all face pressure simultaneously, the research order should be reversed: first calculate supply, then look at unlocking, and finally check the K-line. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 The market usually only focuses on who is buying. But Hyperliquid's position report shows that it's more worth looking at who is selling.
Abraxas Capital holds $451.85 million in open positions on the platform, almost entirely short, with a short exposure of $451.68 million and unrealized profits of $30.77 million. This is not hedging; it's a clear directional one-sided bet.
The contrast is even more obvious when placed in the industry context: Wintermute's perpetual exposure is $107.59 million, while Abraxas's is about 4 times that. A single fund's short volume surpassing the total exposure of a leading market maker is clearly not a casual position increase.
The position structure also confirms this. The top four shorts: $BTC $158.66 million, $HYPE $77.6 million, $ETH $75.27 million, $ZEC $63.51 million. BTC alone accounts for one-third, with the rest spread across public chain tokens and privacy coins, more like a unified bearish view on the entire sector.
Mechanically, Hyperliquid is an on-chain perpetual platform, with positions and P&L publicly verifiable, making it more credible than OTC rumors. The public positions themselves also create expectations: seeing $450 million in shorts with $30.77 million unrealized profit, the follow-the-trend traders tend to amplify the decline, which in turn makes this position safer.
What’s worth considering: the unrealized profit of $30.77 million indicates the average entry price was much higher than the current price. At what level will this $450 million start to reduce? Public data shows the positions but not the take-profit lines.BTC's movement this week is quite interesting. On November 4th, it closed at $80,299.90, but by November 6th, it had dropped to only $75,861.60. Calculating based on these two historical closing prices, it retraced about 5.53%. If you only look at the candlesticks, it's easy to mistake this for a normal pullback. But when placed in the context of the latest US employment and inflation data, I think there's a more interesting contradiction. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on November 6th: 165,000 new nonfarm jobs in October, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The economy does not show signs of a sudden widespread deterioration in employment. On the other hand, the overall PCE in September rose 3.6% year-over-year, and the core PCE still increased 3.1% year-over-year, which is still far from the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. On October 28th, the Fed kept the interest rate range at 3.75%–4.00%, and even two members leaned toward a 25 basis point rate hike. I think the market's dilemma lies here: if the economy is too weak, there are concerns about a recession; if the economy remains resilient but inflation doesn't come down, there may be worries that high interest rates will persist longer. Of course, we can't attribute this round of BTC's decline entirely to macro reasons. The crypto market's own spot demand, leverage positions, and liquidity also affect the price. Without further capital flow data, we can't determine which factor is dominant. So now I want to know what the market is actually repricing, rather than rushing to guess BTC's bottom. Upcoming US inflation data may provide new clues, but it won't solely determine BTC's direction. What do you think—does this retracement lean more toward macro pressure? Thanks Boss Evening Report After thinking for a long time, I found that after AI-related stocks faced sell-offs, the Korean won presented a buying opportunity. Claudio Piron, Head of Asia FX and Rates Strategy at the bank's Global Research Department, stated that the Korean won has recently weakened along with AI-related stocks, but South Korea's substantial current account surplus provides "considerable" support for investors to establish long positions. "This factor will start to play a role," he said, "Marginally, I believe that these current price levels offer investors an opportunity to build long positions in the Korean won. # This only represents a personal market view, trade cautiously $SNDK " My semiconductor longs don't mean I've turned bullish on the AI sector. My bigger-picture view remains bearish. These positions are simply short-term bets on an oversold rebound. I'm renting the recovery, not buying into a new bull market. Thursday brought broad deleveraging, while Friday saw chip stocks recover some of their losses. But one relief rally doesn't automatically mean the trend has reversed. The biggest mistake is confusing a lucky rebound with a confirmed change in market direction$BTC fell below 76,000 this afternoon, and $ETH softened along with most coins, while SOL and HYPE dropped even more sharply.
But the midterm election V-shaped rebound last week says a lot—the shorts covering aggressively pulled the price back from 75,700 to above 80,000, so the market isn't dead yet.
Ethereum is quite divided; Grayscale's mini ETF disclosed nearly $2 billion in staked assets, with 80% of positions locked to earn yield.
On the other hand, the staking queue dropped from 3.7 million tokens six months ago to 1.03 million now, the ETF has been bleeding for five consecutive weeks, and institutions are verbally optimistic but quietly withdrawing.
This week, the STAR 50 index in the A-shares market gained nearly 8%, with media leading at 13.6% for the week; funds are pulling out from large-cap blue chips and rushing into small- and mid-cap tech stocks.
US nonfarm payrolls surged by 165,000,
The probability of a rate hike next month soared to 70%, the Dow took a hit but chip stocks kept rising, with Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC all in the green.
Now everyone just accepts their own fate; don’t try to force one framework onto every scenario. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
An easily overlooked variable: Iridium acquisition
The direct consequence of Neutron's delay is that before 2027, Rocket Lab's financial performance will still be dominated by Electron and Space Systems, with Neutron unable to contribute meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, the approximately $8 billion Iridium acquisition is expected to close by mid-2027. Some analyses suggest that this deal alone could enable Rocket Lab to achieve profitability and positive free cash flow in 2027, regardless of whether Neutron has had its maiden flight by then.
This means Rocket Lab's valuation logic is shifting from a "launch service growth stock" to an "integrated satellite communications + launch platform." Neutron remains a core variable for long-term capacity, but the recurring connectivity revenue brought by Iridium may first change the shape of the income statement. The risk lies in the fact that the timing windows of these two events highly overlap: Neutron's maiden flight ramp-up and Iridium integration both occur in 2027, making the combined execution complexity and cash burn worth close attention.Friday's nonfarm payroll report is out: The US added 165,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. In theory, the economy shows resilience, so everyone should relax a bit. But the market still has another question to consider: If employment and wages hold up, yet prices don't come down, how much room does the Federal Reserve have to ease? It's like bringing your partner home to meet your parents — the partner has a stable job and can cook; the parents pause and say, "That's good, but don't rush into marriage." Parents are looking at whether the couple can make a life together. The market is the same. A good employment report still needs to be viewed alongside inflation. On the coin price side, at 13:27 on November 8, BTC was about $75,790, down 0.21% in the past 24 hours. This is a weekend intraday snapshot and cannot replace the reaction of the next trading day. I will look at it separately from the US Treasury bond movements on weekdays. The next report is the US October CPI at 21:30 UTC+8 on Tuesday, November 10. The key is to see whether employment and prices tell the same story or each sings its own tune. Which do you think the market is more likely to misread this time: the nonfarm payrolls or the CPI? Employment and CPI schedules come from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics; market data from CoinGecko. The above is my personal market observation. #BTC #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls #MacroBTC spot ETFs recorded $1.28B in outflows last week, their worst weekly performance since June. But the interesting detail is where the selling came from. IBIT accounted for approximately $403M of Friday's $412M total outflow, while FBTC still attracted $42.8M in inflows. This suggests selling pressure may be concentrated rather than representing a complete withdrawal of institutional demand. ETH funds also faced pressure, losing $93M on Friday as weakness across technology stocks weighed on bro#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's current real situation: from "discount arbitrage" to "leveraged belief"
SoftBank's classic investment logic in the past was "NAV discount" — market value long below net asset value, buying SoftBank was equivalent to indirectly holding its asset portfolio at a discount. But after this round of OpenAI-driven revaluation, the discount itself has significantly shrunk. According to calculations by Lyon Securities, even assuming OpenAI's valuation reaches $1 trillion, SoftBank's stock price still has about a 25% discount relative to its asset value; while Finimize Research points out that after the stock price doubled, this discount "has basically closed."
This means SoftBank's stock is no longer cheap, while the volatility on its asset side is rising sharply. OpenAI's $500 billion valuation corresponds to a huge computing power commitment and unproven ongoing monetization capability, and SoftBank, to fulfill its additional investment commitment to OpenAI (planning to invest another $22.5 billion in December), has already used various financing methods such as liquidating Nvidia shares, issuing bonds, and margin loans on Arm shares. The explosion of profits and the consumption of cash are accelerating simultaneously within the same quarter.$BTC
Just like the previous cycle, SPX is experiencing a correction during the early stages of the BTC bull run
Historically, these SPX corrections have coincided with Bitcoin forming significant lows before the next expansion higher. Rather than leading to a prolonged breakdown, these periods of weakness have provided opportunities to accumulate BTC ahead of the next leg up
We're seeing a similar setup again. SPX is correcting, BTC is pulling back, and the broader market bullish. U.S. Stock Market Update:
S&P 7377 (weekly -2.7%), Nasdaq 24579 (weekly -3.4%, has corrected about 10%+), Dow Jones 51286 (weekly -0.9%). After a sharp drop on Thursday, tech rebounded on Friday, but the weekly chart is all down.
Core reasons:
Post-midterm election concerns about tighter AI/data center regulations + doubts about AI capital expenditure returns + strong nonfarm payrolls boosting the probability of a December rate hike (about 76-78%). The market is shifting from "storytelling" to demanding real profits; tech is hit, and funds rotate into energy, consumer staples, utilities, etc.
Short-term outlook:
Volatile with a cautious bias; S&P support near 7300, Nasdaq support around 24000. Volatility remains high, avoid chasing rebounds.
Recommendations:
Control positions in the short term, wait for support before acting, and apply strict stop-losses. For the medium term, consider a barbell strategy (high-quality AI stocks bought gradually on dips + value/defensive stocks), and add more after CPI and key earnings for more stability. When tech is under pressure, risk assets (including crypto) tend to follow down in the short term. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ $ETH Ethereum Staking Queue Analysis: Nearly One Million ETH Waiting to Enter, Price Decline Has Not Triggered Large-Scale Withdrawals On the evening of Friday, November 6, nearly one million Ethereum (ETH) are queued waiting to enter staking, while only 4,320 ETH have applied to exit. This is a snapshot of data from validatorqueue.com. According to CoinGecko data, Ethereum's price on Friday evening was $2,229, down 13.4% from 30 days ago. The data shows that despite the price drop, almost no one has left staking, and the inflow remains large, resulting in a waiting time exceeding 17 days. Our assessment is as follows: the queue supports supply but does not replace new buyers in the market. Ethereum Staking Queue: 986,847 ETH with Over 17 Days Waiting Period The entry queue refers to the list of validators who have already deposited their stake but have not yet been allowed to participate in consensus validation. On November 6, this queue held 986,847 ETH. The estimated waiting time from validatorqueue.com is 17 days and 15 hours. Therefore, users registering as validators today will receive their first reward no earlier than November 24. On the other hand, 4,320 ETH are waiting to exit, with a waiting time of just over one day. This is followed by the so-called "liquidation" phase: after exit, it takes about 7.1 days for the balance to reach the registered withdrawal address. The third queueLet's do some quick math.
$ARX (Arcium) is currently at 0.196, down over 15% in 24 hours. The perpetual contract traded $3.54 million in the last 24 hours.
The combined depth of the top 400 order book levels is only about $24,000, less than 1% of the daily trading volume. The farthest buy order is at 0.026, which is 13% of the current price — basically just a placeholder.
Worse, ARX is not listed among the 1210 spot pairs on OKX, and CoinGecko shows the spot price at 0.1968. The only way to exit is through this thin order book.
The price dropped from 0.2501 on 11-07 to 0.194, a 22% decline, but open interest rose from 1.08 million to 1.2 million (+10.8%) — new money is still coming in. The funding rate jumped to +0.0171% at 04:00 on 11-08 (normally the floor is 0.005%), meaning longs are paying at the toughest position.
For comparison, $CASHCAT also dropped 10%, with an order book depth of about $11,000; the top 20 levels total less than $1,000, and open interest fell from 1.01 million to 820,000 (-19%). Longs there were liquidated, while here there is turnover.
Remember: stop-loss orders set the price, but execution is uncertain. Before placing an order, check the total depth of the top 400 levels; if it’s less than 10 times your exit amount, don’t touch it. This is purely about execution.
Have you recently been eaten by slippage on a thin order book? $ARX $CASHCAT To start with a cold splash of water, the phrase "bearish dominance" cannot be directly translated as "it will fall further later." I usually look for risks first, but this time I want to remind the bears: don't take a piece of data explaining the decline as the answer predicting the next market move. My judgment is that this news is bearish but is easily overinterpreted.
PANews cited CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., who said: Since October 14, the CVD has turned negative, dropping to 105,300 BTC, while the price fell from $84,000 to $76,000 during the same period. He believes the bears still dominate. I have two reservations: first, the deterioration of the indicator and the price drop happened simultaneously, which can show who was more active in this move but cannot alone prove that the subsequent momentum will be equally strong; second, CVD reflects the difference in active buy and sell volumes—more active selling does not necessarily mean more new short positions. Directly equating trade direction with an expansion of short positions is a logical leap.
Of course, he might be right. If active selling continues to dominate and the price keeps falling, I would be more convinced that the bearish advantage persists; if the CVD recovers and the price no longer weakens in sync, I would retract my bearish bias on the trend continuation. What I will watch next is whether the indicator and price can continue to confirm each other, without giving "bearish dominance" a long-term validity stamp.The contrast is painful. In October, the ETF net outflow for the whole month narrowed to just 26 million, and it barely turned positive for the year in the latter part of the month. However, the two weeks in November have reversed all that, with the year-to-date cumulative net inflow turning negative again by 416 million. Funds are indeed withdrawing, but the price has basically stayed pinned between 75,000 and 76,000 all week, without breaking the previous low. The selling pressure is concentra$BTC ETFs ran nearly 1.3 billion this week, yet the price stubbornly stayed around 76K without crashing; funds and market conditions are completely disconnected.
$ETH, on the other hand, is more resilient despite high fees, but the long positions' cost basis is clear, so holding firm doesn't mean there's no pressure.
In the A-share market, the past two days saw a surge in photovoltaic limit-ups and AI applications dancing along, with trading volume consecutively surpassing 2 trillion, but on Friday it flipped completely, with over 4,700 stocks turning red.
Funds quickly fled into agriculture and high-dividend stocks; Oriental Ocean had six limit-ups in seven days, clearly showing a risk-averse stance.
Over in the US stock market, tech stocks were just bloodbath-ed, and next week CPI and CoreWeave earnings will hit together, with the probability of a rate hike in December soaring to 80%.
There is no unified logic now; everyone is running their own race. $BTC ETFs bled $1.28B last week, the worst since June, and $403M of Friday's $412M outflow came from IBIT alone. FBTC still took in $42.8M. That looks like concentrated selling, not the whole bid vanishing. $ETH funds lost $93M Friday too, with tech weak. BTC is holding near $75K. Lose it and $69K is the next level traders watch. Takeaway: don't front-run a reversal until you see a full week of net inflows. Is IBIT-led selling a real top, or just rebalancing?#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
What to focus on in the November 9 earnings report
Wall Street's consensus expectation for Q3 is revenue of about $45-46 million, with a narrowed loss per share of about $0.41-0.42. But more important than the revenue figure is the update on the deployment schedule: after the Blue Origin accident, whether management has officially revised the target of 45 satellites to 2027, and whether the revised commercialization service launch window is clear. If the earnings report still maintains the original deployment schedule without adjustment, it may deepen market doubts about its execution transparency.
In summary: ASTS's technology and regulatory foundation have been revealed, but in the chain of "can build it, can launch it, can make money from it," the "can launch it" part is currently the most fragile link; the value of the Q3 earnings report lies not in the revenue itself, but in whether management provides a timeline that matches engineering realities.This weekend, the crypto market did not see a particularly strong rebound, nor did it continue with panic selling.
But I believe the real focus should not be on the weekend's slight ups and downs, but rather on what off-exchange funds are doing.
Let's first look at some noteworthy data:
* BTC hovered around $75,000 over the weekend, with 24-hour trading volume significantly below recent normal levels.
* On November 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $411.9 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $93.3 million.
* The total market cap of stablecoins dropped about 2.23% over the week, indicating that the on-chain USD liquidity pool is still contracting.
* BTC futures open interest decreased over the weekend, showing the market currently lacks strong leverage-driven buying intent.
Putting these signals together, I tend to think that current funds are not actively bottom-fishing but are reducing risk exposure while waiting for a new direction.
However, one detail is worth noting:
The price not continuing to drop sharply does not mean funds have started to flow back in.
It could also mean that previous longs have been cleared out, shorts are taking profits, and buyers and sellers have temporarily reached a balance.
So, the market on Monday could see three scenarios:
First: Funds flow back in.
If BTC breaks out of the weekend's consolidation range with volume, and ETH and major altcoins follow with gains, and spot buying strengthens, then the weekend's consolidation might be a short-term bottoming process.
Second: The rebound meets resistance and continues to seek support.
If BTC's rebound lacks volume support, ETFs continue to see net outflows, and the stablecoin liquidity pool keeps shrinking, then the rebound might just be short-term short covering rather than a trend reversal.
Third: Continued sideways movement, waiting for signals from US stocks and macro factors.
Funds lack a clear direction, and the market continues to shrink in volume and oscillate. In such a scenario, the most likely outcome is frequent spikes up and down, repeatedly trapping traders chasing rallies and selling into dips.
Personally, I am not in a hurry to define Monday's market.
What really needs to be observed are three signals:
1. Whether BTC spot trading volume rebounds, not just futures volume.
2. Whether US ETFs see sustained net inflows again.
3. After BTC stabilizes, whether ETH and altcoins can follow.
My core judgment: This currently looks more like a wait-and-see phase after a decline in risk appetite. The risk-off sentiment still exists, but it is not yet certain that funds have fully withdrawn.
After Monday's open, whoever puts real money on the table first is more likely to decide the next round's direction. Single-week net outflow of BTC+ETH spot ETFs exceeds $1.6 billion. Are institutions really running away this time?
Looking at the data: Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly outflow of $1.28 billion, Ethereum $365 million, and IBIT alone had a $400 million outflow on Friday.
BTC has turned negative cumulatively this year, and ETH has been bleeding for six consecutive weeks. Prices have also fallen back to around $75,000-$76,000. Retail investors are still waiting for a rebound, but institutional funds continue to flow out; this divergence is a warning sign.
But don’t just look at the surface. ETF outflows don’t mean institutions are completely bearish. Often, it’s profit-taking, position rebalancing, or opportunity cost considerations under the macro interest rate environment for non-yielding assets. ETH ETFs have no staking yield, making them more disadvantaged when U.S. Treasury yields are high. Funds leaving the ETF channel don’t mean they are leaving the crypto market entirely.
For short-term traders: during such continuous outflow phases, chasing longs is easy to get shaken out, and false breakout probability increases. Focus on the price’s support strength at key levels (like around $75,000) and whether daily ETF fund flows show significant convergence or turn positive. When volatility amplifies, using stop-loss and position control well is more important than betting on direction.
For medium to long-term: cumulative net inflows are still the big picture, and this week’s outflow accounts for a limited proportion of historical cumulative flows. Institutional demand indicators turning negative this year is a phase cooldown or a trend change that requires confirmation from data in the coming weeks. Don’t treat extreme single-week data as a direct signal of market reversal. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow of approximately $1.65 billion in a single week, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of $1.28 billion—the worst single week since the end of June—and Ethereum ETFs seeing a net outflow of $365 million, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses. BlackRock's IBIT was the largest outflow driver, with over $400 million withdrawn in a single day on Friday.
This data directly caused the cumulative fund flow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2026 to turn from positive to negative, with a net outflow of about $914 million year-to-date. On the surface, it appears institutions are retreating, but it is important to distinguish between flow and stock: since the product launch, BTC has still seen a cumulative net inflow exceeding $55 billion, and ETH about $12 billion, with this week's outflow accounting for a limited proportion of the historical total.
This round of outflows is highly concentrated and continuous. ETH has experienced net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with about $2 billion withdrawn since the end of September. The redemption intensity, calculated by asset size, is significantly higher than BTC. Funds are simultaneously leaving both major crypto ETF channels, indicating that the issue is not with a single asset or product, but a systemic contraction of institutional risk exposure.
Driving factors include a decline in risk appetite after the midterm elections, stronger-than-expected employment data pushing up US Treasury yields, cooling expectations for rate cuts, and the opportunity cost disadvantage caused by the lack of staking yields in ETH ETFs. As the most liquid channel, ETFs often become the primary target for institutions to reduce positions when adjusting their portfolios. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Before the $NVDA earnings report, which constraint test should be used for computing power growth?
NVIDIA has scheduled its earnings call for November 17. After chip supply expands, the power supply, cooling, and deployment pace of customer data centers will also determine system revenue. If shipment growth is accompanied by accelerated customer production, demand fulfillment will be more stable. If project schedules are delayed, even with strong purchasing intent, recent revenue may fall short of expectations.The scariest thing about trading is not getting stuck,
but that you clearly are in a downtrend
and yet you keep desperately searching for a “support level” to comfort yourself.
Yesterday it surged to 2450, many thought a major reversal was coming, but today a sharp guillotine cut straight down to 2236.
Let's state some objective facts: the highs are continuously moving lower, from 2526 to 2450 and then to 2236, which is a very obvious bearish structure.
The volume below is simply insufficient to support a reversal; a volume-less rebound is just a bull trap.
Don’t use your principal to guess the bottom.
My short position at 2671 can yield 1630% profit, relying not on luck but on position sizing tolerance.
Look at the forced liquidation price at 2699 in the screenshot; this huge safety buffer in the middle allows me to completely ignore short-term shakeouts.
As long as the forced liquidation price is far away and the trend is downward, this money is mine to earn.
What’s next? The idea is very clear. Weak rebounds mean short.
Watch the resistance zone at 2300 - 2320 above; if the rebound stalls here, it’s an excellent entry point for short positions.
Looking further down, breaking 2174 is just a matter of time, and the downside space will fully open. Follow the rhythm and do the high-probability trades.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 15 billion Naira, stablecoins pegged to the US dollar must pay an entry fee to enter Nigeria
New regulations by the Central Bank of Nigeria take effect on November 5
Foreign currency stablecoin issuers must register a company locally and obtain a license
Minimum paid-in capital of 15 billion Naira
Naira stablecoins require 10 billion Naira, other service providers 1 billion Naira
Existing institutions must apply for a license within 180 days
Algorithmic stablecoins are outright banned; reserves must be fully covered plus an additional 2% buffer
My view: licenses exchange for market access, compliance costs will push out small issuers, USDT and USDC can only remain through local entities
Failure scenario: threshold lowered within 180 days, or major issuers receive exemptions
One of two outcomes: this is a necessary path for stablecoins to go mainstream, or emerging markets are shutting their doors?
$USDT $USDC
#USCryptoRegulation: "CLARITY Act" progress stalled, 401(k) rules enter final review First, look at the current $BTC price 75723, buy orders are very weak, order balance 31 versus 69, sell orders are more than double the buy orders, and the most terrifying thing is a buy order worth $24.95 million at 75000, and above it at 75767 an immediate selling wall pressing down, this big order is just a show for you, if the selling actually happens, the main force will pull its orders faster than anyone, and will bury you quickly
Then look at $ETH current price 2233, the situation is similar, 32 versus 68, and the craziest thing is that the largest pending order is a huge sell wall worth 15.3 million at438 million transactions, but to pour some cold water first: I don't think this transaction volume is enough to label the entire Perp DEX sector as strongly recovering. In the material, the number of transactions rose month-on-month, hitting a new phase high, but still below the previous same period level. I tend to see it as an activity recovery rather than demand having reached a new level, so don't get excited too quickly.
I'm stuck on two points. First, transaction count does not equal user count; if growth mainly comes from a few high-frequency accounts, then no matter how frequent the trades, it doesn't indicate ordinary users are flooding in; this is just my speculation, as the material lacks account structure data. Second, transaction count does not equal revenue; the same trade can have different amounts and actual fees paid. Without trading volume and fee data, directly concluding that the protocol's profitability has improved, and then that related tokens benefit, skips two steps. When I read news, I fear this kind of metric substitution the most—there is indeed activity, but the value support may not keep up.
Of course, being bearish is not stubborn denial. If later we see independent active users, user retention, and fee income all improving together, rather than just transaction count rising, I will admit I underestimated this round of recovery. For now, I will put this news on the watchlist and wait for growth quality to catch up before changing my judgment. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Why is there a "rebound after a sharp drop"? This round of volatility is not caused by a single factor, but by three things combined: Increased regulatory concerns after the midterm elections After the Democratic Party won in multiple state-level elections, the market worries that data center-heavy areas like Texas might tighten approvals, energy consumption, and environmental regulations, thereby slowing the pace of AI infrastructure expansion. AI sector overvaluation and crowded trades Earlier, AI, chips, and optical communications saw large gains, and when funds take profits, it easily triggers a chain sell-off. On Thursday, the Nasdaq once plunged 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the Dow dropped over 1800 points. Nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations In October, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the previous two months were revised up by a total of 84,000. This raised the probability of a December rate hike from about 67% to about 78%–80%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield returned to about 4.87%. High interest rates still suppress high-valuation growth stocks. Why is the rebound "narrow"? On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2%, AMD rose over 11%, Intel rose over 7%, and Micron, Lumentum, and others also clearly recovered. But tech giants are not unified: Tesla rose 4.23%, Nvidia rose 2.87%, Meta and Google rose slightly; Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon closed lower. This indicates the market has not fully "re-embraced tech stocks," but funds are first replenishing positions $BTC
This is actually insane
Short liquidations currently outweigh long liquidations by roughly 5:1
There is only one small cluster of long liquidations left around 74k-73k, but besides that, max pain is definitely to
the upside
As I already mentioned, one more sweep below $75k is possible, but ultimately I’m expecting price to go a lot higher and take out the liquidity that has built above price U.S. tech stocks have sharply declined, essentially because the AI market has moved from the “storytelling phase” into the earnings verification period. Coupled with multiple factors such as interest rates, valuations, capital, and regulatory pressures causing valuation digestion, this does not mean the AI industry cycle is completely over, but the market pricing logic has changed. Going forward, key indicators to watch include: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, capital expenditure guidance in tech giants' earnings reports, AI-related product paid conversion data, and Federal Reserve policy statements. $SNDK $SOXL $NVDA #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
The Democratic Party swept the midterm elections, losing control of both houses of Congress. The policy benefits that the crypto industry relied on from the Republican Party over the past two years will need to be repriced overnight.
The Clarity Act was originally stalled in September, but now with the Democrats in power, Warren overseeing the Banking Committee and Waters the Financial Services Committee, regulation will only tighten and investigations will increase. This is not a case of "bad news fully priced in," but a real policy headwind.
Looking at Saylor's side, on November 7 he posted that Stretch raised 2.521 billion and bought 21,021 bitcoins. The key point is the timing—this was completed by July 2025.
Bringing up old news shows this is not new buying; it precisely indicates that Strategy's "financing to buy coins" flywheel has long stopped turning. mNAV fell below 1, issuing shares to buy coins is no longer cost-effective, so it doesn't buy, meaning the market loses one of its most prominent marginal buyers. The old ammunition is spent, and the new ammunition hasn't appeared yet, which suppresses sentiment.
Bitcoin is now hovering just above 75,000, and on November 7 ETFs withdrew over 400 million. My view remains unchanged: short-term weak oscillation, still recommend shorting on rallies Brothers, take a look at Brother 800's real trading account. Many people want to ask, after losing so much, can you still sleep at night?
First, let's look at the full account overview: total unrealized loss of 4.15 million U, overall performance drawdown of 93.68%. At its peak, four accounts combined lost over 30 million, and now it's still struggling to recover.
Breaking down the three long positions carefully: The first $BTC long position, 19x full margin, entry price 77624.2, current unrealized loss 30010.83 U, return rate -42.64%; the second $ETH long position, 17x isolated margin, entry price 2278.68, unrealized loss 15313.19 U, return rate -31.83%; the third BTC long position set at a low price, 20x isolated margin, entry price 67701.3, this one is profitable, unrealized profit 183675.26 U, return rate as high as +241.66%.
The holding logic is very clear: the early low-position BTC longs caught the big move and made a big profit; later, more was added at high prices chasing the long, and after the market pulled back, the high-position longs were directly trapped, and the profits from the profitable positions were largely eaten up by the losses from the high-position chasing longs.
This is the harshest part of high leverage: even if you once caught a doubling market, as long as you are greedy and continue to heavily add positions at high prices following the trend, a single pullback will significantly erode profits. Although the margin ratio is still high now and there is no liquidation risk for the time being, the account has already shrunk significantly, and the pressure to recover is huge.Regarding Moderna's financial report, beyond seeing how much profit was made, I am more interested in whether the money has actually been collected.
The net profit for Q3 was $162 million, a turnaround that deserves recognition. However, the company also mentioned that most of the payments from product sales during the quarter had not been collected by the end of the quarter. Accounts receivable at the end of September were about $1.367 billion, a significant increase compared to the end of lastHere's another arbitrage example. Recently, many people have been discussing the pre-listing contracts of Anthropic (ANT) on X.
Binance: prices are based on an assumed 1 billion shares, while hype:ANT is priced per share.
After the prospectus reveals the actual number of shares, Binance will adjust the contracts so both sides align on the same per-share price.
According to online research, there are about 12.7 billion shares. This morning at 6 AM, Binance was at 1,374, which converts to about $108 per share, while hype shows $97.5, a difference of around 11%.
So some people go long on hype and short on Binance, balancing according to share count.
At its peak, the price difference was 25%. As more people arbitraged, it shrank to 5% at one point, and now it's back to 11%, likely because some have taken profits and closed positions. The risk lies entirely in the share count calibration.
If Binance includes all options and such, the share count would be about 16.7 billion, making the per-share price only $82. Doing this would mean a loss of nearly 20% in reverse. In short, both sides are betting on which share count Binance will ultimately use; this is not risk-free arbitrage.
The game point: whether it's around 16.7 billion or closer to 12.7 billion shares. 16.7 billion means Binance goes up; 12.7 billion means Binance goes down. Based on SpaceX's precedent, the 12.7 billion figure is more likely.
This is also why more people are arbitraging based on 12.7 billion. If you still don't understand, better not to touch it. Playing it safe means not playing.The Binance 6.3 billion hack is still being digested, and $BTC is stuck grinding around 75.9K, unable to go up or down [reference:0][reference:1].
On-chain data is quite honest; ETFs have already withdrawn nearly 1.3 billion in November, institutions say it's nothing, but they're quicker than anyone to slip away.
CPI and PPI are coming this week, analysts have drawn a range from 73K to 80K, with liquidation clusters all in between—whichever side hits first will hurt [reference:3].
$ETH is interesting though, outperforming BTC by nearly 24 points in the past month, BitMine has swept up almost ten thousand coins, and over 80% are locked in staking.
But ETH’s own ETFs have also bled a lot; prices rose, but not much money came back.
The A-shares market is a completely different game: media stocks gained 13% in a week, power equipment went crazy, photovoltaics hit a limit-up wave, and turnover surged to 2.12 trillion.
However, the STAR Market plunged 5%, while liquor stocks pulled against the trend; capital rotation is very clear, so it’s not a full bull market at all.
The US non-farm payrolls blew past expectations, pushing the Dow down, but chip stocks collectively revived, with Advanced Micro Devices up 11% in a single day, and Tesla also jumped over 4%.
Right now, the market is everyone playing their own game; don’t expect a single logic to connect it all.