Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC Today's Trend Analysis📊$BTC
Current Price: Approximately $82,000, down about 2%-3% in 24 hours, once falling below the $82,000 mark.
Core Pressure: Driven by macro risk-off sentiment. The escalation of the Ukraine and Middle East situations has pushed international oil prices sharply higher (WTI broke $94, Brent rose to $107.25), causing market concerns that rising oil prices will fuel inflation, thereby strengthening expectations for Fed rate hikes and suppressing risk assets. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 67 a week ago to 56, returning to a neutral range.
Key Levels:
• Resistance above: Around 84,500, with a scale of about $180 million.
• Support below: 80,000 probability is 56%, probability of falling to $77,500 is 33%.
• Bull-Bear Divergence: Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, believes $80,000 is likely to be lost, but $77,000 is unlikely to be broken.
Key Variable: The US CPI data (released today) is the core catalyst to break the current consolidation. QCP Capital points out that the options market simultaneously holds defensive positions and bets on a breakout, with the direction still unclear. 我最早碰这玩意，是朋友半夜拉我进群。
群里天天有人喊冲，头像换来换去。
我那会儿连钱包和交易所都分不清。
第一次买 $BTC 的时候，手都在抖。
涨一点就想卖，跌一点就骂人。
后来才明白，这市场专治各种不服。
$ETH 让我交了不少学费。
gas费有时候比转账还贵，真离谱。
但链上转一圈，又觉得挺神奇。
$SOL 快的时候是真快，卡的时候也真卡。
别信谁喊单，尤其那种保证翻倍的。
真要玩，先想清楚这钱丢了会不会影响生活。
我现在的做法很土，分批买，留点现金。
涨了不追，跌了也不急着割。
晚上该睡就睡，盯盘盯不出财富自由。
群里热闹的时候，往往要小心。
没人说话的时候，反而可以慢慢看。
别碰不懂的合约，杠杆能把人拧成麻花。
空投可以撸，但别把身份信息乱给。
陌生链接别点，助记词谁要都别给。
交易所不是银行，放多了心慌。
自己保管私钥，丢了就真没了。
别老想着百倍，先想着怎么活下来。
赚了提一点出来，吃顿好的，买双鞋。
亏了也别演苦情戏，复盘比抱怨有用。
这行变化快，今天热点明天就凉。
多看少动，有时候是最难的操作。
我也不敢说自己懂，只是还在场。
能熬住的人，才有机会看到下一轮。
大概就这样，别上头，日子还长。#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Tại sao những đồng coin hồi phục mạnh nhất sau đợt giảm sâu lại chưa chắc là đồng coin đáng mua nhất? Khi mới bước vào thị trường tiền mã hóa, tôi rất tin vào sức mạnh của đợt hồi phục. Sau khi thị trường giảm mạnh, đồng coin nào tăng trước 20%, 30%, tôi nghĩ đó là đồng mạnh nhất, dòng tiền chủ lực đã quay lại trước. Sau này tôi mới biết, những đồng coin giảm sâu nhất thường cũng dễ hồi phục mạnh nhất. Trước đây, sau một đợt thanh lý toàn thị trường, tôi đã đuổi theo một đồng coin nhỏ hồi phục 4$ETH 失守2500美元！24小时近1.7亿美元爆仓，多头还要扛多久？
这轮下跌，ETH又成了重灾区
截至10月13日，ETH跌至2430美元附近，24小时跌幅约4.5%，而BTC也跌破82000美元，整个市场的抛压正在加重
📉 三个信号值得警惕：
① 多头正在集中出局
过去24小时，全市场爆仓约7.74亿美元，其中多单占比接近89%。ETH爆仓约1.69亿美元，多单占比超过86%。这不是普通的价格回调，杠杆资金正在被迫离场
② 2500美元失守，反弹压力加大
2500美元已经从心理关口变成短线压力。下方先看2400美元附近，如果继续失守，不排除进一步下探2350美元一带
③ ETF资金持续流出
截至10月9日当周，美国现货ETH ETF净流出约5.42亿美元，机构资金撤离也在削弱市场信心
我的看法： 现在最危险的不是跌了多少，而是下跌过程中多头不断被清算。如果BTC迟迟无法企稳，ETH即使出现反弹，也不能轻易认定趋势反转
$BTC $ZEC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $SKHYNIX is too fragile, it directly gapped down pre-market and dragged the storage sector down with it. $SNDK hit the stop loss, now just waiting for the market. Will consider entering short positions after a rebound.
Recently, all losses came from long positions on oversold rebounds. The rebounds without breaking the right-side structure didn’t lose, so adjustments are needed. The downtrend in US stocks means no more oversold rebounds will be traded; the market has officially started to recede.
For crypto, it has pulled back but not broken last Friday’s low. Long positions based on the right-side structure are still viable, just keep stop losses tight.
Summary: The crypto rebound cycle is not over, but the stock downtrend is continuing.
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed 【买卖点位】
- 买入点一：2450 USDT（接近4小时图前低2443，且为整数点位，可能获得支撑）
- 买入点二：2400 USDT（4小时图和日线图关键支撑区域，接近日线10月08日低点2406.11，买盘预期增强）
- 做多止损点：2370 USDT（低于关键支撑2400，提供足够缓冲，防止假突破）
- 卖出点一：2500 USDT（接近4小时图EMA7阻力2504.82，且为整数点位，可能产生抛压）
- 卖出点二：2550 USDT（接近4小时图EMA30阻力2530.81和前一个波段高点，抛压预期增强）
- 做空止损点：2570 USDT（高于关键阻力2550，提供足够缓冲，防止假突破）币圈今天又跌了。
$BTC 一度跌破8.15万，24小时大概跌接近3%，以太坊更惨，跌到2425附近，跌了将近5%。 $SOL 、 $XRP 这些主流山寨也跟着重挫6-7%以上，全网爆仓冲到七八亿，绝大多数是多单被清算。
为啥跌？其实跟股市一个逻辑。美债收益率还在高位，油价因为中东局势又涨了，资金对风险资产整体避险。高杠杆多头一跌就连环爆仓，放大了跌幅。ETF这边资金也在持续流出，买盘支撑不足。
宏观压制没过去之前，币圈短线还是偏弱，先观望。兄弟们注意了 这4个币的爆仓雷区已经摆在眼前了
现在最值得盯的不是涨跌 而是哪边的杠杆先扛不住
🔶 $BTC 现价82663
上方84415聚集4912万空头清算
下方81603聚集3426万多头清算
短线向上有逼空空间 向下也有多头止损压力
🔶 $ETH 现价2474
上方2497聚集4655万
下方2452聚集4053万
多空清算金额咬得很紧 一旦放量突破 很容易引发连锁清算
🔶 $SOL 现价105.72
上方107.35聚集594万
下方101.88聚集706万
下方清算压力更大 追多必须防止突然砸盘
🔶 $ZEC 现价1190
上方1212聚集349万
下方1165聚集383万
上下都有清算空间 方向还得看实际成交量
我的观点很明确
目前 $BTC 和 $ETH 上下两边都有大量清算流动性 价格越靠近这些区域 越要提防插针和快速反转
但记住 最大痛点不等于必到目标 清算热区也不是方向预测
别看见数字就冲进去 先等价格走出来再动手
合约市场最狠的地方 从来不是看错方向 而是方向看对了 仓位却先没了$ZEC 多军平均成本才979？千万别被这个数字骗了！
多军平均开仓价在979，离现价差了两百多刀，看着好像稳得很，可细看盈利比例却只有可怜的28.34%！628个多军乘上71.66%的亏损比例，足足有450个正在亏钱！
这个极低的平均成本，纯粹是被少数低位进场的狗庄硬生生拉低的，绝大部分多军的真实成本其实都在现价上面，早就被活埋了，多军账上那5356万利润，全揣在那一小撮人兜里，剩下的全在山顶吹风站岗。
多军的强是“被平均”出来的，站岗的那450个才是多军的大多数，大多数都被埋了，这多还怎么做？果断上车做空！麻吉大哥这仓位，真不是一般人敢玩的！链上最新数据看下来，他现在完全是在玩一场多空拉扯。
$BTC ：40倍杠杆做空243枚比特币。目前浮盈接近26万美元，资金费还能再收5万多美元。 这边是他的盈利主力，只要比特币不突然反向暴拉，空单就还能继续贡献利润。
$ETH ：25倍杠杆做多8700多枚以太坊，开仓价2546美元，目前浮亏超过40万美元。 方向跟BTC空单正好相反，行情要是继续走弱，这笔多单的压力还会增加。
还有5倍杠杆做空23万枚$HYPE ，浮亏高达486万美元。 开仓价63.9美元，爆仓价106.6美元。虽然账面亏得狠，但资金费反向进账约102万美元，多少能缓冲一部分压力。
这套仓位的核心，就是BTC空单赚钱，ETH多单和HYPE空单承压，再靠资金费补贴亏损。看起来有赚有亏，实际是在考验整体仓位能不能扛住行情波动。
但我觉得，最危险的不是某一笔单子亏了多少，而是高杠杆下的连锁反应。一旦行情突然单边拉升或下杀，原本互相牵制的仓位，也可能同时承压。
麻吉大哥敢这么玩，不代表普通人扛得住。看巨鲸操作可以，照着抄仓位就算了。$ETH $BTC #微软发布新一代目前还未是大盘直接下砸的趋势，目前属于博弈区间，还是k线博弈的时候，完全下跌开始才是情绪的博弈
💰筹码区，连续支撑，砸了之后拉起来，到反复支撑以上
🔢数字，8万是强支撑
☎️没有额外的负面消息，一时间量不够立马砸下来
📈k线指标反弹突破短期压制下行线 《5U挑战67000U · 第19天报告》
当前资产：200u浮动
本轮本金：5U + 充值200U = 205U
累计亏损：965
状态：亏麻了
今日操作：
第19天，亏损965。
之前说的是950，今天是965。又多了15。
15U不多，但问题是——它还在涨。
我盯着那个数字，没什么反应。不是不在乎，是不知道该怎么在乎了。200U冲进去，扛了这么多天，补了这么多次仓，最后账面还是这个数。
翻了翻记录，从第12天充值100U，到第15天又充100U，到第18天胜率41.67%、盈亏比1:0.31，到今天累计亏损965。
每一步都有理由，每一步都觉得自己在“救”，加起来就是这个结果。
我救了个什么？ 以太坊和比特币双双破防了。
昨晚有个粉丝问我，巨鲸卖BTC买ETH，是不是以太坊要起飞了。
我没回他，直接把4小时图发了过去。
2769砸到2406，反弹到2580就上不去了。量能一根比一根小，上方全是套牢盘。你管这叫起飞？这叫被人抬着上担架。
巨鲸换仓这件事，很多人只看表面。
卖410枚BTC，买14341枚ETH，听起来像调仓，实际上是换一个亏得慢的地方继续扛。
大资金在从比特币撤退，不是因为看好以太坊，是因为比特币也撑不住了。资金在找出口，不是在找机会。
散户现在88%在开空，这个比例太拥挤了。
但价格还在往下走，说明什么？
说明不是空头在砸盘，是有人在现货市场真金白银地跑。空头拥挤加现货流出，这种组合我见过太多次，最后都是多头先扛不住。
2458这个位置，有人觉得是底。我只想说，2600都站不上去的盘面，你跟我谈什么底。
$BTC $ETH $STRK
#英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 BTC从80985拉回82700，ETH从2407回到2477。这轮反弹，资金结构出现了一个有意思的分歧。
10:20前后的币安永续数据显示，BTC从日内低点反弹约2.1%，ETH反弹约2.9%。最近约一小时的主动买卖量合计，BTC买/卖比达到1.51，ETH达到1.62，买盘主动性确实改善了。
但我更关注OI：从08:45到10:15，BTC未平仓量略微减少约0.23%，ETH却增加约0.46%。
同样是回拉，一个仓位略缩，一个仓位扩张。这不等于ETH一定更强，因为新增合约无法直接判断多空方向。
目前BTC资金费率仍为正，ETH仍为负。我会重点观察ETH能否有效站回2480—2500，以及BTC能否守住82400附近。
我的判断：反弹已经有买盘支持，但还需要证明这些买盘能够持续。BTC and ETH both broke defenses! The 24-hour long-short liquidation ratio reached as high as 9:1!
Yesterday, before the US stock market opened, the crypto market started to dive; once the US stock market opened, the selling pressure indeed intensified further.
In 24 hours, BTC liquidations reached 165 million, ETH liquidations reached 167 million, SOL liquidations reached 60.76 million, with total network liquidations at 785 million USD! Long position liquidations accounted for as much as 88%, with leveraged longs facing concentrated liquidation, averaging 9 long positions liquidated for every 1 short position.
$BTC (82726): The lowest touched 81,032 USD, only 632 USD above the previous low of 80,400 USD. The previous low support is just within reach.
$ETH (2481): The lowest touched 2,409 USD, breaking below the 2,500 USD mark, short-term structure under pressure.
$SOL (106): The lowest touched 101 USD, just one step away from the 100 USD psychological level.
The most dangerous aspect of this round of market movement is not just the price drop, but the concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs. Continuous forced liquidations may form a negative feedback loop of "decline—liquidation—intensified selling pressure."
However, liquidation does not mean a full withdrawal of spot funds, nor can the market bottom be judged solely based on liquidation data.
Do you think it will continue to probe lower this time? #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #利雅得机场遇袭，沙特加快陆路输油布局 BTC跌下来收上来的速度都很快
好消息的没有跌破前低， 4小时2次探底
即使破前低也会形成4小时底背离
3日线目前macd 死叉，避免追高
目前还是逢高空安全一点
一旦方向改变，就不会轻易反转
现在多空比1.6，抄底的比较多
即时行情企稳也会反复探底
今天83500，84000依然可做空
止损84500即可
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $BTC 8万保卫战告急！江卓尔预警下探7.7万，主力狂逃8.18倍，山寨惨遭血洗，清算图曝光绞肉机！
急跌不抄底，破位不抗单。潮水退去，方知谁在裸泳！
结合1小时图看，BTC从87249狂泻至80344，现价82600附近弱势整理。消息面，江卓尔直言8万大概率失守，7.7万POC成最后防线；山寨惨遭血洗，BOME暴跌超30%，ENA、NEAR跌超13%。资金面上，Flow评分-68，流出加速8.18倍，7D净流出超37亿。清算图显示，下方81000多单尸横遍野，破8万将连环爆仓。个人观点：主力出逃引发踩踏，切勿盲目接飞刀。
操作策略（主空辅多）：
🔴主要思路：反弹做空。反弹至84500-86500区间分批空，目标80000，破位直指77000大关。
🟢次要思路：急跌博反弹。若急跌至76000-77000黄金坑，轻仓多，防守74000。#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Other targets recently followed (not buying now):
cake (main force on BSC, as long as Robinhood and Base mess around, it will have to make a move)
xrp series (xlm, hbar, algo are also manipulated by these people) and fil/icp, the last three months are prone to trouble, with Ripple having an anniversary event at the end of October
ai series: fet, tao, frequently mentioned by foreigners, worth observing; physical ai: peaq
defi: aero, ray, met"Maji Holding Shorts, Eleven Double Shorts, Boss Ten's Long Position Becomes Legendary: When the Direction is Right, Leverage is the Wings"
Maji stubbornly holds losing short positions, Boss Eleven's 30x double shorts make his heart race, but Boss Ten throws out a long position report card: Following the trend is the best leverage.
Historical positions revealed, three long trades, each hitting the mark:
$BTC: 10x full position, long opened at 85611 on November 18, closed long at 87217 on December 3. Max 300 coins, closed 400 coins, pocketed +641,000 U, return rate 18.73%. Heavy position held till the end, steady.
$XRP: 10x full position, long opened at 2.0795, closed long at 2.1725, holding 1.2 million coins. Earned +111,600 U in three days, return rate 44.72%. High elasticity altcoin, fully profited.
$SOL: 10x full position, average price 128.22, max 15,000 coins, realized +170,700 U. Long combo punches, solid profits.
Total of the three trades about 920,000 U. No hedging, no locking positions, just confident in the direction, fully invested. Compared to Maji's deep short losses and Eleven's double short gamble, Boss Ten proves: In front of the trend, direction is more important than leverage. When the direction is right, 10x is wings; when wrong, 10x is a meat grinder.
The market rewards those who follow the trend, not necessarily the bravest.
For personal observation only, not investment advice.
#VolatilityRadar: Coin Movement Watch
#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Tested
#Institutions Continue to Position, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure? Here's a little-known fact:
In the past 30 days, TRON's network fees amounted to $227 million, while Ethereum's ETH only had $15.9 million.
From the perspective of value capture, TRON's value is 46 times that of ETH.BTC surged to 84,000 early this morning, and the 57,000 short sellers were brutally squeezed! The logic behind it isn't that simple.
Early today, BTC rallied to 84,000, and the shorts at 57,000 were squeezed again. Many are puzzled: with the Saudi airport attack, oil prices soaring to 105, and global inflation supposedly worsening, shouldn't this be bearish for BTC? So why is it still rising?
Actually, the logic isn't complicated:
1. With the midterm elections approaching, Trump must rally votes. How? One way is to push oil prices down. Therefore, geopolitical conflicts are likely to ease soon. Russia has already relaxed diesel exports. Although the risk in the Strait of Hormuz still supports oil prices, the balance of the game is shifting.
2. Panic selling from ETF funds has basically cleared out. Last week, BTC's ETF net outflow was $681 million, mostly profit-taking. But on Friday, it finally turned positive with a $21 million inflow, indicating selling pressure has mostly released. The coin price has reclaimed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, repairing the technical structure.
Next, the key is whether BTC can break through the short-term resistance at 84,500. If it holds above, there is a chance to challenge the 87,000 resistance. However, it probably won't happen that fast; let's first see if Wednesday's CPI release can help BTC break through 84,500.
The short squeeze is just the surface; the real drivers of this rebound are the dual resonance of shifting geopolitical expectations and capital clearing. The market is still in a game of tug-of-war; chasing highs requires caution, and timing is more important than direction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test ETH Hits 2500: 85% Are Shorting, A Whale Just Switched $69.68 Million in Positions
An extreme signal: The ETH order book long-short account ratio reached 85%:15%, with almost everyone shorting. But in the past 24 hours, liquidations of short positions reached $569 million, funding rates dropped to -0.00219%, indicating shorts are paying longs.
What changed? The price rebounded from a low of 2407 to 2481, approaching the 2500 round number. On-chain, a whale/institution sold a total of 837.8 BTC and switched to buying 27,500 ETH, worth about $69.68 million, at an average price of $2534.
Why is this noteworthy? On one side, ETFs have seen a net outflow of $542 million over 9 consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $477 million; on the other, whales are swapping BTC for ETH, and an Ethereum Foundation-related wallet transferred 4393 ETH to Kraken. Institutions are exiting, whales are repositioning, moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like a recovery structure after crowded shorts and overselling, with a large buy wall near 2421 providing support, but 2500 to 2550 remains a resistance zone repeatedly generating selling pressure.
Next focus: October 14 CPI, expected overall inflation to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%. With 85% short positions, will they dare to hold through this data? $ETH Sister U 10.13 Tuesday BTC Thought Process
Entry Condition: Rebound to the 83200-83500 range
Stop Loss Position: 84200
First Take Profit Target: 82400
Second Take Profit Target: 81800
Market Logic: The rebound after the previous rapid bottom at 80344.8 is a corrective move following the decline, not a trend reversal. During the 1-hour level rebound, trading volume gradually shrinks, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The 83200-83500 area is a key resistance zone of previous decline chips; when the price reaches this area, the trapped positions above will create continuous selling pressure to suppress the price. Do not place short orders prematurely; wait for confirmation of weakening rebound signals before entering to avoid the risk of short-term price spikes triggering stop losses.BTC Hits 83,000: Whale Swaps $69.68 Million in Positions
A notable on-chain move: a certain whale/institution has cumulatively sold 837.8 BTC and swapped into 27,500 ETH, valued at about $69.68 million, with an average ETH purchase price of $2,534. Meanwhile, a Bitcoin OG address, silent for years, transferred out all 4,582 BTC, worth $378 million.
What changed? In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $195 million, with longs accounting for 73%; BTC rebounded from 80,961 to 82,737, but the order book long-short ratio reached 67%:33%, indicating crowded longs again.
Why is this worth watching? Old on-chain chips are rotating positions, while derivatives longs are increasing exposure—two forces moving in opposite directions. The 30-year US Treasury yield is as high as 5.55%, putting pressure on all risk assets due to funding costs.
Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like a repair phase after leverage clearing; longs are crowded but confidence is fragile. There is buying support near 82,000, and 83,400 is a key resistance above.
Next thing to watch: October 14 CPI, with expected overall inflation rising from 3.4% to 3.7%. With 67% long positions, will they dare to hold through this data? $BTC #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs are both experiencing net capital outflows simultaneously. The two major mainstream coins being redeemed at the same time is a risk signal that deserves attention.
Here’s my view: simultaneous outflows indicate that institutions are currently uniformly reducing their crypto risk exposure, not just rebalancing a single coin. This is more influenced by US Treasury yields and inflation expectations, with rising risk aversion.
However, it cannot be directly concluded that institutions are completely exiting; some of this is short-term profit-taking rather than full liquidation. Continuous outflows in the short term would be bearish, while single-day outflows have limited reference value.
Contract trading strategy: temporarily avoid heavy long positions. Continue to monitor whether ETF funds can return to net inflows, and watch BTC’s key support levels. If outflows persist for multiple days, treat rebounds primarily as oscillating rebounds and strictly use stop-losses.Big brothers sideways, little brothers fly: mid and small caps outperform large caps
In the past 24 hours, the CoinDesk 80 mid and small cap index rose 3%, 2.5 times the 1.2% gain of large-cap coins. BTC is stuck below 83,000, ETH rose 2.5% to 2550. Strategy bought another 21 million BTC last week, with total holdings around 70 billion. What does this mean?
Insights from mid and small caps leading the rally
First, risk appetite is rising — when BTC is sideways and mid and small caps lead, it usually signals a rise in risk appetite, with funds shifting from "safe-haven BTC accumulation" to "speculating on altcoin volatility," but this also means the market is more fragile; if BTC breaks down, altcoins will fall harder. Second, institutional and retail divergence — institutions like Strategy continue buying BTC (total holdings 848,000 coins), concentrating institutional funds in mainstream coins, while retail and speculative funds seek opportunities in mid and small caps, causing a divergence that results in "large caps stable, small caps active." Third, altcoin season signal? — sustained outperformance of mid and small caps over large caps is one of the signs of an upcoming altcoin season, but it is necessary to watch if BTC can hold above 80,000; if BTC breaks support between 77,000-72,000, the altcoin rebound may quickly reverse, so blindly chasing small coins is not advisable.
Mid and small caps leading indicate rising risk appetite, but BTC’s trend is uncertain; altcoin season needs confirmation, so be cautious about chasing highs.
Interaction: Is the altcoin season coming?Korean stocks plunge impacts crypto, ETH down 5%
This morning, Ethereum dropped over 5% to 2412, BTC fell 3.39% to 81062. South Korea's KOSPI plunged, SK Hynix fell nearly 4%, and storage chip stocks plummeted overnight. Tom Lee warned that the Korean stock crash could affect crypto, as Korean investors are major crypto holders and broker liquidations are occurring. What does this mean?
Insights from the Korean stock plunge
First, cross-market contagion — The Korean stock market plunged due to concerns over storage chips, triggering broker margin liquidations. Korean investors were forced to sell crypto to cover positions, with ETH under heavier pressure due to high retail holdings in Korea. This is a case of traditional markets transmitting shocks to crypto.
Second, ETH weaker than BTC — In this round, ETH's decline (5.18%) was significantly greater than BTC's (3.39%), reflecting that when risk appetite falls, funds prefer holding BTC as "digital gold." ETH's higher beta means greater volatility, with altcoins falling even more.
Third, short-term pain — Tom Lee believes this is short-term pain; after Korean liquidation pressure eases, stabilization may occur. However, attention should be paid to tomorrow's CPI; if inflation exceeds expectations, it will intensify risk asset sell-offs. Currently, it is advisable to reduce leverage.
Korean stock plunge impacts crypto, ETH under heavier pressure, may stabilize after short-term pain, reduce leverage.
Interaction: Will ETH break 2400?Morning Report 10.13
1. Bitcoin touched 84k yesterday, then followed the semiconductor slump in the US stock market and dropped back near 82,000. Still garbage time, don’t rush to go all in.
2. ETH at 2460 / SOL at 106, following a softer trend. QNT is also pulling back, don’t chase.
3. US stocks were mixed yesterday: Dow was up, Nasdaq down, storage and semiconductors mostly green. SanDisk and Micron took a heavy hit, really hard to understand. Money is moving from AI hardware to energy. CPI is coming Wednesday night Beijing time, and bank earnings reports are also due this week.
4. ETFs still saw outflows last week, BTC about 600-700 million USD out in a week. Slight inflow last night doesn’t change the big picture. 10Y yield remains above 5.2, oil is still expensive, macro continues to weigh.
5. NFT: Blur frontend will shut down on 11.12, Blend also stopped new loans, BLUR took a big hit. The old points airdrop scheme has run its course. Those with authorization, remember to withdraw.
6. Meme coins still show no strong new leader, I still don’t get the paper stuff. Keep holding on.$DOS That line was crazy, liquidating 6 million in a few minutes, first pumping 4x, then crashing 90% in 5 minutes. Rumor has it that the market maker account was force-liquidated by Binance's risk control, causing a chain liquidation. (This is the same script as AKE and LAB.)
But the key point is not how it liquidated, but that retail investors have gotten smarter. After a sharp drop, there's often a second wave, so they collectively ambush to go long, betting that the liquidation is a one-time event and the price will correct. Oversold conditions might rebound, but what really needs attention is the position size. When market makers liquidate, liquidity becomes fragmented, stop losses fail, and slippage maxes out. If you leverage to catch the dip, the next spike is your liquidation price. When everyone thinks "it should rebound after such a drop," it often hasn't bottomed yet.
High control, low liquidity, extreme volatility—when these three come together, the best position is no position. For this DOS move, focus on risk control and contract design, not on ambushing longs; it's the last all-in before the casino closes.Blur announced it will shut down its frontend in November and Blend will stop lending; BLUR on OKX plunged 29.0% to touch $0.01349
Blur announced it will completely shut down its web frontend on November 12. BLUR on OKX spot market plunged 29.0% with heavy volume, crashing to $0.01349. Those holding positions are advised to stay in the spot market and observe today. I saw the official announcement on Twitter this morning: the lending protocol Blend will stop matching new loans on the same day. Any outstanding loans must be repaid before the deadline; overdue loans will be considered defaults. The official team will only maintain withdrawal tools afterward. Although the protocol and fee toggles remain on-chain, the web frontend service is officially discontinued. The once wildly popular NFT leader is now shutting down its frontend, causing liquidity on the market to evaporate instantly.
I just switched to the OKX market page to check the market. The total open interest of perpetual contracts across the platform stands at $7.464 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for $3.026 billion. The altcoin-to-Bitcoin open interest ratio is 0.94, and the fear and greed index is 57. BLUR spot saw a single-day sell-off of 5.26 million USDT in volume, with fees dipping into negative territory and no buy-side support at all. On-chain authorization activity is even more intense. Yuga Labs’ 0xQuit reminded everyone that there are still NFT authorizations worth tens of millions of dollars left in the Blur contract. Since the contract has upgradeable permissions and the team is rumored to be disbanding, he urged everyone to revoke their authorizations as soon as possible.Latest news: Today's market is like a four-act play, featuring whales, chips, AI, and government bonds in turn. Act One, the ancient whale awakens. A certain $BTC ancient address, silent for years, suddenly transferred out all 4,582 $BTC, worth about $377.58 million. When an old wallet moves, the market can't help but speculate, but a transfer doesn't equal a sell-off, so don't scare yourself yet. Meanwhile, another whale or institution sold a total of 837.8 $BTC to buy 27,500 $ETH, worth about $69.68 million, with an average $ETH purchase price of $2,534. This is not a liquidation, just a position swap; the direction has simply changed. Also, a smart money address reduced its $VVV holdings again, transferring 100,908 coins into Coinbase, with an expected profit of over $9.84 million per coin—this move is indeed impressive. Act Two, chip stocks face a cold wind. The memory chip sector continues to be sold off; Micron fell six out of seven trading days, down nearly 20% from its high, SanDisk also dropped nearly 6%, and South Korea's $HXSCL plunged 9%. Even Elon Musk spoke out: "Once China masters manufacturing technology, its expansion capacity often exceeds the total of other regions worldwide." This sounds like both a reminder and a warning. Act Three, the AI circle is lively. The full X family bucket officially launched, bundling Grok, Cursor, and X Premium for $30, originally priced at $90—definitely a good value. The legal model GLM-Legal from Zhipu improved its pass rate from 6.7% to 19.2%, nearly tripling, with costs only one-seventieth of competitors at the same level. DeepSeek second roundLet's talk about the CPI data at 20:30 tomorrow night, giving everyone a reference standard:
If CPI≥3.9% and core CPI month-on-month reaches or exceeds 0.4%, then the expectation of rate hikes will heat up, which is bearish for $BTC;
If CPI is about 3.7% and core CPI month-on-month is about 0.2%-0.3%, it means it meets market expectations, and the market will continue to maintain its original oscillation rhythm, with the data release being a slight positive;
If CPI≤3.5% and core CPI month-on-month is 0.2 or lower, then the market's rate hike expectations will drop significantly, which is bullish for $BTC.
My view: leaning towards the second scenario, but the main focus is still on the core CPI data.
Because energy prices cause the overall CPI data to be high, but if the core inflation excluding food and energy slows down month-on-month, the market will think that the rise in energy prices has not yet transmitted to the underlying inflation, so there is no reason to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Sisters, I've broken even, I’m finally breaking even!
Yesterday I was wondering if SanDisk could drop to 1200, and now it seems it’s pretty much on target.
Many people say it’s already dropped so much, how could it possibly fall to 1200?
You can check the $SNDK long-short ratio data; currently, 81% of retail investors are long.
81.41% longs, with a long-short ratio pushed up to 4.38.
This data alone is enough to give you goosebumps.
All retail investors are crowded on the long side, lining up waiting for the pump from the big players to bail them out?
What a pipe dream!
The market is always counterintuitive; the more retail investors cluster in one place, the more it becomes a slaughterhouse for the big players.
Just based on this data, if it falls to 1200, I’d even say it’s a slow drop.
Look at the candlestick chart, it’s a waterfall drop straight from 1620 down to 1427.
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing downwards, a classic bearish alignment.
MACD’s DIF is -13.4, DEA -12.7; although the green bars have shortened, the two lines are stuck firmly below zero, showing weak momentum with no fight left.
No decent rebound at all, who’s risking their life to push it up?
My high short position at 1884.3 has steadily earned 235% profit.
The short position at 1405 that was stuck for a month is finally breaking even now.
The whole situation is completely under my control; this is the trend.
Others panic, I’m greedy; others bottom-fish, I add shorts.
In terms of strategy, don’t try to bottom-fish at this position; a slight short add around 1450-1460 on the rebound is fine, slowly grinding down.
The target is firmly locked at 1200; don’t exit before the target is reached.
I used to have hormonal imbalances every day, but tonight I can finally sleep soundly.
$BTC
$ETH
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an “energy ceasefire” agreement, progress pending confirmation
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high Boss Shi finally closed his short position. Is it time to go long now?
Don't rush. What really matters is not "he closed his position," but when he chose to close it.
Last night, at the worst of the waterfall drop, BTC was hammered down to around 81,000, ETH dipped to about 2,410, yet he didn't move his short positions; now BTC has rebounded to 82,700, ETH back to 2,480, and he chooses to take profits.
This indicates that in his view, the odds of further downside are no longer as comfortable. The short profits are thick enough, and being greedy might get wiped out by a retaliatory rebound.
But note:
Closing a short does not equal going long, nor does it mean the bull market has restarted.
My thinking is simple: if BTC holds steady at 83,000–83,300 and retests without breaking down, and ETH recovers above 2,500–2,520, then consider lightly entering long positions.
If BTC falls back below 81,800 and ETH loses 2,450 again, the long logic is canceled immediately.
Boss Shi closing his position means the bears have one less weapon.
But for the bulls to take back control, price itself still needs to prove it.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$CT top accounts are more bullish, positions still leaning bearish. The proportion of bullish accounts increased by 1.76 percentage points, the proportion of long positions increased by 0.51 percentage points, still at 46.7%.Given the current market, should you buy the dip or retreat? 🤔
This position is indeed awkward. $BTC has rebounded to around 84,000, $ETH back to about 2,546, and $ZEC is hovering around 1,275. Although the charts look red, this wave is actually short sellers being squeezed out—$164 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts making up the majority. Without new capital inflows, it's all driven by liquidations.
Now is neither the time for blind bottom-fishing nor panic selling. The mainstream structure remains intact, but ETFs saw an outflow of $681 million last week, and institutions are still watching. Before the CPI release on October 14, the direction is unclear. The market will likely continue to oscillate, rising a bit then falling back, repeatedly wearing traders down.
ZEC has recently had volatility over 6%, chasing highs risks getting stuck halfway up.
Don't rush into heavy positions, and don't panic exit either. Hold your core mainstream positions, keep small positions in sync with the rhythm. Wait for the CPI data to come out and the direction to become clear before making moves. Respect the cycle and patiently wait for signals. 🫡
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation BTC rebounded to 8.43 yesterday, then quickly pulled back with a wick down to 8.1, followed by a rapid rebound back above the support. The 8.27 level switched roles between resistance and support; after breaking through and stabilizing, the rebound is expected to continue. On the right side, once it stabilizes above 8.27, re-enter long to trade the rebound, with a stop loss at 8.17 and targets near 8.37 and 8.44.
On the daily chart, a bearish engulfing pattern is observed. On the left side, prepare to short at 8.44, with a stop loss at 8.52 and targets near 8.36 and 8.27.Held for a whole day, is it about to take off, whale! I won't let go unless it hits 0.16, I’m too lazy to even click to close this small profit!
After enduring a whole day and night, MAGIC finally stands strong! Current price 0.13961, up +14.45%! I opened a long at 0.12843, from a floating loss of -20% this morning to now a floating profit of +25.51% (+13.1U), this roller coaster ride was worth it!
MAGIC is completely strengthening. The first resistance above is at the previous high of 0.14688; once it breaks out with volume, it will directly target 0.15-0.16. The support below has moved up to 0.128 (near the entry price).
Won't let go unless it hits 0.16!
Having endured the toughest shakeout, now it's time to feast. Whale, give it some strength, pull it straight to 0.16 and make me happy!
Held for a whole day, finally about to take off. I won’t let go unless it hits 0.16, whale, you decide!
$MAGIC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Standing above the 52-week moving average for four weeks does not mean a bull market has arrived
$BTC has rebounded from the July 1 low of $57,820 to now.
It has closed above the 52-week moving average for four consecutive weeks.
Where did this money come from:
The starting point of this rebound was $57,820.
The 52-week moving average is currently around $78,000.
How is this number calculated:
Price standing above for four weeks only satisfies the breakout condition.
A pullback confirmation is still needed once, and the moving average direction is still downward.
Only one of the three principles is met.
So this rebound is most likely still a correction, not a new trend.
The moving average needs to flatten before turning, and there must be some consolidation in between.
I originally thought standing above for four weeks was enough.
Now I see, four weeks is just a ticket to enter; direction is the answer.
If this judgment is wrong, just consider it a tuition fee.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $BTC $BTC is trading near $81.4K, and I'm mapping out 3 possible paths for the next 2–3 months
Scenario 1: $80K sweep → $88K liquidity grab → rejection toward $75K
Scenario 2: Flush to $75K → consolidation → recovery toward $90K+
Scenario 3: Deeper correction to $65K → base formation → next leg higher
At this point, I wouldn't marry any single scenario. $80K is the immediate area to watch, while $75K and $65K become relevant if selling pressure acceleratesThe week of major U.S. inflation data is about to begin. At 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, the September CPI and core CPI will be released, followed by multiple key indicators including PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims at the same time on October 15.
The September FOMC minutes signaled that most Federal Reserve officials see the possibility of another rate hike within the year, but there is significant internal disagreement on the timing. As of October 10, the market prices only an 18% chance of a 25bp rate hike in October, with the mainstream betting that the rate hike window will be in December.
Rising energy prices will directly push up the overall inflation reading; the core CPI is the key gauge to observe whether inflationary pressure is spreading across the entire market. Retail and unemployment data are used to verify the resilience of U.S. consumption and employment.
The upcoming data will directly rewrite the Federal Reserve’s path:
✅ Inflation and consumption stronger than expected → October rate hike expectations rise again, strengthening the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, while risk assets come under pressure
✅ Core inflation declines moderately → Reinforces market consensus to pause rate hikes
This set of data will reshape the pricing logic of U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and risk assets. The major market turning point is very likely to occur after the release of these two days’ data. Middle East conflict triggers panic in Asian stock markets! $BTC trapped in a triangle consolidation
The Middle East war continues to escalate, with early trading seeing sharp declines in Japanese and South Korean stock markets, quickly spreading panic sentiment, and A-shares opening significantly lower.
As mentioned yesterday, once BTC breaks below 83270, the liquidity of buy walls below is thin. Coupled with the global risk-off sell-off panic this round, the price is naturally pushed down to the 81000 level. The final breakout point of the market depends on tomorrow night's CPI data.
1. Technical pattern: A daily converging triangle has formed, with lower support line at 80350-81000 and upper resistance line at 86600-84350. Bulls and bears are compressed within a narrow triangle structure, waiting for news to catalyze a breakout.
2. Range judgment: The short-term market is trapped oscillating between 81000-83500. The lower boundary at 81000 is the first defense line; if volume breaks down below it, there is a lack of strong buy orders to support, and selling pressure will further release. The upper boundary at 83500 is a short-term strong resistance, where rebounds will face trapped positions and short-sellers' pressure.
3. Core variable: Currently, market funds are in a wait-and-see mood and will not make unilateral moves in advance. All funds are waiting for the CPI inflation data release. Data above expectations will strengthen rate hike expectations, bearish for crypto assets; inflation easing may bring rebound and repair opportunities.
⚠️ The market is in a pre-news game phase; do not heavily bet on direction within the oscillation range. Wait for the CPI release to confirm the triangle breakout before trading with the trend. The most important sentence today: BTC has fallen back to $81K, and the real change in the past 24 hours is that three macro pressures have simultaneously intensified again—Brent crude oil rose 1.8% on Monday to $106.65, the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 102.56, and the latest Fed officials' remarks clearly emphasized that the US still needs a more restrictive monetary policy.
What is even more noteworthy is that the US bond market was closed yesterday due to a holiday, but new research has found that hedging transactions in the mortgage market may be amplifying the pressure on US Treasury sell-offs.
The biggest problem BTC faces now is no longer just ETF outflows, but a new resonance formed by energy inflation, a strong dollar, and high interest rates. The US CPI to be released tomorrow will be an important catalyst in determining whether this round of adjustment can end. 【XAU · 10/13】This wave of gold is a rebound, not a reversal!
Gold traders, pay attention.
In short: This wave of gold is a rebound, not a reversal, don’t get confused.
① What’s the situation?
Gold has touched the zero line on the 8-hour chart, a small timeframe has seen a top, and it’s directly pulling up.
② Key focus on 2-3 hours
There was support on the 2-3 hour chart, but it is now being broken down (EMA52 has been breached).
If it can’t hold → the 8-hour chart will rebound directly.
③ Rebound in progress
The 20-minute chart has already upgraded, now both 20-minute and 45-minute charts are pulling up together.
No bottom formed — if a bottom forms, the decline stops; if no bottom forms, the decline continues.
④ Important! This is not a reversal
No bottom formed on the 8-hour or daily charts → this wave is just an oversold rebound on the 8-hour chart, not a reversal!
The 5-day moving average bottom only counts after the daily chart forms a bottom. Until then, the overall trend is still bearish.
⑤ What to do?
For short positions: watch if the 23 or 30-minute charts form a bottom.
No bottom → hold on
Bottom formed → take profits (there will be a bounce two hours after the bottom forms)
In short: rebound ≠ reversal, shorts watch 23/30 minutes, daily chart no bottom, trend unchanged.🔪
#XAUUSD #Gold #CandlestickMomentum #TradingLogic
(Technical logic sharing only, not investment advice, trading involves risk)$ZEC quickly dropped to 1122, then made a rapid V-shaped rebound on the 15-minute chart.
The funding rate turned negative.
Most of this rebound comes from short covering, not new long positions entering.
Key levels:
Support at 1168
Resistance at 1200
Focus on open interest (OI).
If OI doesn't increase while price rises, it's just a dead cat bounce.$RIVER $CP Continuing to hold CP and made a T trade. The overall trend is still bearish. If it rises, I'll add to my position, no fear.
Waiting for the dog whales to perform.
Project fundamentals: Highly controlled, fundamentals continuously deteriorating.
RIVER is a chain-abstract stablecoin protocol (core product omni-CDP stablecoin satUSD), whose TVL has dropped from a peak of $600 million to about $160 million.
According to Arkham on-chain data, the top three addresses (ERC1967Proxy, Team Proxy, Investor Proxy) collectively control over 53%, making it an absolute "whale stock."
There is a dark history of manipulation with a crash from $87 to $11 in January, resulting in extremely low market trust.
Long-short ratio: Retail frenzy
Binance retail long-short ratio 2.8911, OKX retail long-short ratio 3.47
For whales: whale count long-short ratio 3.4543, but whale position long-short ratio only 1.5399.
$BTC #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #ASML Q3 earnings announced October 14, EUV orders are the focus Bitcoin surged to $84,254 yesterday, then fell back.
It is now hovering around $82,000, neither rising nor falling.
Everyone is waiting for one thing—the Wednesday CPI.
BTC touched $84,254 on Monday before retreating, with an intraday drop of up to 2.2%. The trigger was straightforward: an attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz caused Brent crude to spike to $107.25, WTI broke through $94, both hitting their highest levels since mid-September.
Oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → increased pressure for rate hikes → risk assets under pressure.
This transmission chain is operating in real time. The key node in this chain is the September CPI report this Wednesday.
The market expects the overall September CPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month and increase to 3.6%-3.7% year-over-year (previously 3.4%). This jump is mainly driven by gasoline prices—energy sub-index is expected to surge 5% month-over-month, gasoline up 9.23% month-over-month.
But the real focus is not the overall number, but the core CPI.
The market expects core CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, lower than August’s 0.3%. Natixis even predicts only 0.19%.
Core CPI is the variable that determines the probability of rate hikes. The overall number is clearly pushed up by oil prices; no one will reprice interest rates just because gasoline prices rose.
Key price levels for BTC.
First resistance above: $84,500.
On-chain data shows about $180 million in sell order liquidity at this level. Bitcoin was pushed back after hitting $84,254 yesterday; the roughly $200 difference is due to this wall.
The real resistance: $87,000.
QCP Capital clearly points out that BTC has repeatedly failed to break through $87,000. If it can hold above this level effectively, the next target is $94,000. The options market also supports this—call butterfly spreads expiring at the end of October concentrate at strike prices of $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000.
Support below: $82,000.
CoinGlass data shows buy support near $82,000, with the densest buy orders between $81,000 and $82,000. But note one detail: sell orders above $83,300 are very thin, meaning if BTC can quickly break through this range, the liquidity gap above may accelerate the move.
$82,000 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding it leaves room for an upward push; losing it points to the next dense buy zone at $78,000-$80,000.
Two scenarios, two paths.
Scenario 1: Core CPI ≤ 0.2%.
Core inflation is milder than expected, meaning the energy price surge hasn’t transmitted to the core level. Rate hike expectations cool down—the market currently prices only about an 18% chance of a rate hike in October, with December being the real window.
BTC may test the $84,500 sell wall. If it breaks through, it will head straight to the $87,000 resistance. A breakthrough there points to $94,000.
Scenario 2: Core CPI ≥ 0.3%.
Core inflation hasn’t slowed or is hotter than expected. Coupled with soaring oil prices, the market will reprice rate hike expectations.
BTC is very likely to break the $82,000 support. The downside target is the $78,000-$80,000 range. In extreme cases, the options market has already bought a large number of put options at $78,000 and $80,000 strikes as hedges—smart money is preparing for a downside.
10x Research data shows BTC’s near-term implied volatility has dropped to 33.5%, more than 4 percentage points below realized volatility, at the lowest level in five years.
What does this mean?
Options pricing is very cheap. The market isn’t paying a premium for upcoming volatility.
But CPI is a typical volatility event. When implied volatility is far below realized volatility, if data surprises, the market will be caught off guard. Price reactions will be more intense than usual.
Low volatility itself is a risk signal. It means the market is unprepared.
The CPI data itself is not scary.
Overall CPI jumping from 3.4% to 3.7% is already known by the market. Oil price rises are also known.
What’s truly scary is betting heavily on a direction.
Before the data drops, reduce leverage.
Wait for the core CPI numbers, see the market’s real reaction, then act.
Being slow won’t kill you. Being hasty might lose everything.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $BZ $CL On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have returned to profitability, which many analysts see as an on-chain signal of market recovery.
Here are my thoughts: Long-term holders breaking even and turning a profit indicates that the pressure from trapped positions in this correction has been absorbed. When long-term funds shift from unrealized losses to profits, as long as there is no large-scale concentrated withdrawal or sell-off, it means holder confidence remains stable and selling pressure will significantly weaken.
However, it is important to distinguish: long-term breakeven ≠ an immediate big rally. If whales cash out heavily after becoming profitable, it could instead create selling pressure. Meanwhile, macro factors like US debt and geopolitical risks still exist, so relying solely on this one on-chain indicator to go heavily long is unwise.
Trading approach: Do not chase highs with contracts. Continuously monitor long-term holders’ coin withdrawal trends and ETF capital inflows. Only when on-chain improvements coincide with sustained capital inflows is the rebound more reliable; cut losses promptly if the market weakens.BTC current price 82776, MACD golden cross below zero line, RSI weak, EMA entangled with short-term moving averages suppressing. Above 83000 short positions accumulate, below 82000 large long positions liquidate, current price stuck above liquidation zone, short-term has rebound momentum but resistance is obvious.
Just moved the enamel basin off the security booth windowsill to make space for phone to watch the market. The 83000 level is key; once short position liquidation triggers, there will be a pulse surge, but don't chase longs before breaking EMA resistance.
In operation, lightly buy on dips in the 82200 to 82500 range, defend at 81800, target first 83200 to 83500, reduce positions directly upon reaching. If volume breaks through near 83000 and liquidation completes, can chase a short-term long to 84000, but must use trailing stop. Avoid shorts for now, consider reversing only if stagnation signals appear in the 83500 to 84000 range. Core logic in one sentence: between 82000 and 83000 is a meat grinder, position control is top priority, don't heavily bet on direction.
$BTC
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
@OKX星球 Standing above the 52-week moving average for four weeks does not mean a bull market has arrived
$BTC has rebounded from the July 1 low of $57,820 to now.
It has closed above the 52-week moving average for four consecutive weeks.
Where did this money come from:
The starting point of this rebound was $57,820.
The 52-week moving average is currently around $78,000.
How is this number calculated:
Price standing above for four weeks only satisfies the breakout condition.
A pullback confirmation is still needed once, and the moving average direction is still downward.
Only one of the three principles is met.
So this rebound is most likely still a correction, not a new trend.
The moving average needs to flatten before turning, and there must be some consolidation in between.
I originally thought standing above for four weeks was enough.
Now I see, four weeks is just a ticket to enter; direction is the answer.
If this judgment is wrong, just consider it a tuition fee.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $BTC