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Just as the kitchen's oil pot began to emit the first wisp of blue smoke, an order came in from the front hall: Anthropic's main course, with Q3 revenue hitting $16.8 billion, nearly 50% higher quarter-over-quarter, and turning positive profit for two consecutive quarters, operating margin just over 10%, and cash flow back in the black. I've stood at this stove for twenty years and know exactly what these numbers feel like—this isn't a quick stir-fry just off the heat, it's a slow-simmered broth cooked for hours, clear in color, with evenly distributed oil spots, and the saltiness perfectly balanced on the tongue's root. But don't rush to serve the dish; I need to first taste the temperature. The quarter-over-quarter growth rate dropped compared to Q2, like the heat dial turned down halfway—still boiling, but the bubbling force is clearly weaker than before. The commercial seasoning is ample, but the fuel under the stove—chips, data centers—is a bottomless money pit; when the fire is too high, the broth easily scorches at the edges. Whether adjusting profit and cash flow can cover the big pot of computing costs is the key to whether this dish can be served. As for that valuation rumored to be close to two trillion, I treat it as a private room reserved in advance by a guest. No matter how big the room is reserved, if the dish can't be served, the guest will still turn hostile. From Q2 to Q3, growth slowed a bit; the dish is still cooking, but the queue for seats is getting tighter. Looking next door at the linked target, the spiciness of that dish is fiercer than I expected. It's like the extra-hot chili peppers I casually tossed into the pot—refreshing in the first few bites, but enough to have you clutching your stomach in the middle of the night. Many in the market now confuse the main dish and the chili: treating leverage as the staple and mainstream varieties as garnish. When this ratio is messed up, the taste is a disaster. My rule is simple: the main dish should take up 70% of the plate, seasoning at most 20%, and the extra-hot chili pepper portion is just to awaken the tongue, not to settle accounts with the stomach. Whoever eats chili as a meal will be guarding the restroom at closing time. Both pots are now burning simultaneously—one is the slow-simmered broth, fresh but costly to cook; the other is chili oil, fragrant and pungent. The real test of skill isn't how thick the broth is simmered, but knowing when to reduce the heat and when to hand over the stove to the next dish. Heat control is something never written on the menu. #anthropicq3revenue16.8b#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 What I find most worth noting in TSMC's earnings report is not the phrase "exceeding expectations," but that profits grew faster than revenue. Revenue increased by 50.9% year-over-year, while net profit rose by 68.7% year-over-year. Profit outpacing revenue means it's not just about selling more; each dollar earned is also more profitable. Advanced processes account for 79%, with 2nm just getting started but already making up 8%. The demand for AI chips is solidly reflected in the accounts. Interestingly, despite such a strong report, $TSM and xTSM actually dipped slightly that day. The reason is easy to guess: Q3 revenue had already been announced in advance, so the good news was already priced in by the market. Now everyone is focused on two things: the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditures will continue to be raised. My view is that "exceeding expectations" was already factored into the stock price before the report came out. What matters next is the guidance. If the guidance only meets expectations, the stock will likely move sideways in the short term; if capital expenditures are raised again, it means TSMC itself sees even further demand for AI.《PPI前的午间切片》🧊 $BTC ：81602，-2.51%，费率+0.0058%，持仓524亿。价格降温，杠杆没降温；24h爆仓1.98亿，多头买单为主。💧 $ETH ：2384，-5.11%，费率+0.0029%，持仓303亿，爆仓2.88亿，超过BTC。但币安费率已到-0.0013%，大资金先转向，小平台散户还在补仓。⚠️ $SOL ：102.99，-3.95%，费率+0.0077%全场最高，持仓66.9亿，爆仓3161万，92%是多头。跌得不算最狠，信仰税最重。🔥 结论：费率仍正，多头未清；ETH费率转负、SOL多头密集爆仓，说明聪明钱撤、散户扛。PPI今晚20:30前，不加仓，管住手。BTC失守81000看80000，ETH 2350，SOL 100。🍵#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 BLUR 24h +17.84% 不是妖盘，是 OKX 10-13 上 X-Perp 后的公告驱动行情。 事实链：10-13 12:00 公告 BLURUSD X-Perp 上线 → 凌晨到中午还在 0.010 横了十几小时 → 16:00 拉到 0.01048 → 17:00 收 0.01177（量 1 亿，前 12 根均量 520 万）→ 18:00 收 0.01228 → 19:00 现 0.01233。3 根 1H 涨 +17.6%，量放大约 20 倍。 为什么现在？① X-Perp 上线 2 天，perp 沉淀资金到位，基差拉得动；② 18:00 大盘在跌（BTC -2.78%、中位数 -6.4%），BLUR 逆势放量 = 资金挑弱拉强。公告→沉淀→拉盘，是 OKX 上 X-Perp 的标准三段式。 但 4H 还没确认，0.013（今日高点 0.01313）一带是阻力。追进去的问一句：公告行情谁来接盘？ 你们觉得 BLUR 冲 0.014 还是回 0.010 盘整？$BLUR⚡ $BTC at 81,000 USD (400-day moving average) is the critical line between bulls and bears, with three tests of the same support zone on October 9, 12, and 15. Each touch triggered a quick rebound, but the rebound strength weakened progressively. Holding this level suggests a rebound; breaking it could see a drop to the 80,000 psychological level or even 78,000. ⚡ $ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with early major whales who bought around 14 transferring 6,369 ETH (about 2,300) to exchanges, facing a dense sell wall resistance zone at 2,382 above. ⚡ $ZEC peaked at 1,698 and has fallen about 36%. 🔥 Macro: US September CPI year-on-year rose 3.7%, exceeding expectations (previous 3.4%), pushing the Fed's October rate hike probability up to 47% at one point. The Fear & Greed Index dropped sharply from 62 to 52, shifting the market mood from "greed" to "neutral." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 那是一根被抽掉承重柱的十五层悬挑结构，外立面还挂着百亿订单的幕布，地基却已经在渗水。十月十四日，CoreWeave股价塌了百分之十五点四六，二零三二年到期的债券收益率一度击穿百分之十五这条结构红线——在建筑行当里，这就是甲方站在楼下抬头看，发现主体沉降速率超过了设计冗余，于是所有分包商同时开始撤脚手架。 我必须说清楚一件事：订单储备不是地基，订单是效果图。一百亿美元的积压合同挂在那儿很好看，但它只是一张尚未浇筑的蓝图。真正决定这栋楼能不能立住的，是混凝土——是算力交付能不能按期转成营收，是营收能不能转成经营性现金流，而现金流才是唯一能去偿付那五百二十一亿美元债务与租赁负债的东西。六月末账上背着这个数，相当于你在软土地基上盖超高层，还用了高杠杆配筋。利率一上行，融资成本就成了侧向风载，你每一层都得重新验算。 这位掌门人说市场反应不理性。可结构工程从不接受"不理性"这个辩护词。风不会因为你相信自己稳就不吹。长期订单确实能支撑债务偿还——前提是交付节奏、供电配额、机柜上架率、客户履约意愿这四根柱子同时到位。任何一根出现剪力裂缝，整栋楼的内力重分布就会把压力转移到债券持有人身上。百分之十五的收益率不是情绪，那是市场在对这栋楼重新做极限承载力评估。 热通胀与科技板块疲软，等于同时降低了地基承载力和提高了风压取值。这时候所有同类项目都要被拿去做横向对比：谁的资本结构更干净，谁的交付曲线更可验证，谁在手订单的对手方信用更扎实。资金压力从来不会只压在一栋楼上，它会沿着供应链和信贷链条传导到相邻地块，让整片开发区的融资窗口同时收窄。 我看图纸从来不看渲染图，只看配筋图和地质勘察报告。这家公司的全部问题，浓缩成一句话：它用设计图的速度签了合同，却必须用施工的速度去还债。 #coreweavestockbonddrop$SKHYNIX 存储股还没跌完？现在抄底，小心抄在半山腰！ 今天还有兄弟问我，闪迪跌了这么多，现在能不能抄底？$SNDK 我的建议很明确：先别急！ 跌得多，不代表跌到底。尤其是现在这种行情，盲目进场，很容易抄在半山腰。 这波存储板块走弱，不是没有原因。国内存储市场竞争压力、回购提前结束带来的情绪变化，再加上韩股存储板块持续承压，市场资金开始重新评估存储股的估值。 昨晚CPI数据又超出预期，美元走强，利率预期升温，高估值科技股面临的压力进一步增加。 从盘面来看，低点不断下移，空头依旧占据主动，真正的止跌信号还没有明确出现。 所以我的思路还是不变：暂时不急着抄底，优先观察反弹做空的机会。 别总想着猜最低点。趋势没有扭转之前，便宜可能只是相对的。 等反弹、看压力、确认转弱，再考虑进场。机会永远不缺，重要的是别在趋势向下的时候，急着证明自己能抄到底。 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 雷达回波图上，曼哈顿上空出现了一个罕见的逆温层。10月13日，纽约梅隆银行把一笔两年期美国国债装进了私有账本，结算只用了数分钟，随后才接入隔夜回购融资。这是三方回购平台上第一笔代币化资产交易。同一天，DRW与Marex在另一条链上交换了挂钩代币化债券指数的总收益互换，而Ondo的代币化国债产品规模已经越过三十亿美元等压线。 我在值班室里盯着这组数据，第一反应不是价格，而是气压。 传统回购市场常年处于闷热低压状态——抵押品在托管行、清算所、经纪商之间来回搬运，每一道交接都要等T+1的积雨云散开。抵押品周转率低，就像水汽输运不畅，资金成本自然被抬在半空下不来。现在有人把国债搬到分布式账本上，结算周期从一天压缩到几分钟，相当于在锋面上开了一条通道，水汽瞬间贯通。这不是降温，这是改变了整层大气的环流结构。 但气象学教会我一件事：局地强对流从来不代表整个天气系统转型。目前的观测有三个关键变量尚未收敛。 第一，跨平台流动性。Ondo、Canton、私有账本各自形成独立气团，彼此之间没有稳定的急流通道。一个平台上的代币化国债，能否作为另一个平台的合格抵押品？如果不能，那只是三个孤立的雷暴单体，不是一条锋面。 第二，合规与风险控制。代币化资产的穿透式监管相当于给风暴装上探空仪，问题在于谁来放飞、数据归谁、断网时手动观测的备用方案是否存在。链上结算的最终性与法律上的最终性，目前还是两个不同高度的气压层。 第三，抵押品折价率。代币化国债在压力情景下能否获得与原生国债同等的折扣待遇，决定了它到底是真正的低价资金，还是只是换了个包装的高成本融资。 $xMSFT 这类美股代币标的的走势，本质上是在给这场环流调整做短临预报。它的波动放大，说明市场在对上述三个变量做高频博弈——资金在赌代币化能压低融资成本，但风险模型还没给出稳定的边界条件。 我的观测站目前给出的是黄色预警：系统形态已经具备，能量输送正在建立，但垂直风切变依然偏大，任何一个合规断层或流动性缺口，都可能把这场锋面打散成午后热对流。 凌晨两点的探空数据还没回传，气球还在往上飘。 #tokenizedtreasuryrepoPPI倒计时：BTC出现抢筹信号，为什么还不能确认反转？ 今晚美国PPI公布前，BTC、ETH分别出现约1845万和1560万美元的短线现货净流入，说明低位有资金尝试接盘。但拉长至4小时和24小时观察，整体资金流仍偏弱，SOL更是持续面临抛压。 这意味着局部买盘回暖，不等于市场已经反转。短线资金可能是在提前布局，也可能只是尝试抄底，关键要看数据公布后能否持续承接。 市场预期PPI环比上涨0.4%、同比上涨3.2%。若数据超预期，通胀与高利率担忧可能加剧，BTC下方支撑将面临考验；若低于预期，风险偏好有望回升，但反弹仍需量能确认。 接下来重点观察三件事：BTC现货买盘能否延续，ETH能否守住关键支撑，以及SOL资金流是否由负转正。 数据前有资金试探，数据后才看得出方向。别把短线抢筹当成趋势反转，真正的信号是持续买盘，而不是一时流入。$BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 大盘一片绿，$ZK 却逆势暴涨12%！技术突破是真的，还是资金在背后推波助澜？ 兄弟们，今天的 $ZK 确实有点不一样！ 大盘还在持续承压，同属L2赛道的 $ARB、$OP 表现疲软，$ZK 却硬是走出了独立行情。背后的催化也不简单：仅凭一张显卡，就为7200个连续的以太坊区块生成证明，而且据称99%的证明能在10秒内完成。 技术实力确实亮眼，但技术强，不代表代币就一定值得追！ 👀 我更在意的是，热闹的技术叙事背后，究竟有没有真实的生态需求和代币价值支撑？ 📉 第一，生态基本面还需要补课。 ZKsync Era目前的DeFi TVL约1500万美元，与ARB、OP所处生态相比，仍有明显差距。技术突破可以带来关注度，但能否进一步转化为用户、资金和实际应用，才是后续行情能否持续的关键。 ⚠️ 第二，代币价值捕获还存在不确定性。 此前规划的跨链收费机制，在v31调整后仍未正式启用。换句话说，技术进展并不意味着代币需求会同步增长，后续还得看具体机制何时落地，以及能否真正产生价值。 🐳 第三，筹码集中度值得警惕。 目前，$ZK 前十大地址的持仓占比接近51%。这种集中台积电Q3营收又创新高了，今晚财报就要揭晓，这跟闪迪到底有啥关系？ 法老直接说，台积电是“修路的”，闪迪是“路边卖水的”。路修得越宽，水卖得越多，但修路的时候尘土飞扬，卖水的也得先吃口灰。 先看台积电这成绩单有多硬。 Q3营收干到1.49万亿新台币，约467亿美元，同比增长50.9%，创单季历史新高，连续第六个季度刷新纪录。华尔街预期净利润约7463亿新台币，同比大增65%，又要创历史新高。前9个月营收已经干到3.89万亿新台币，直接超过去年全年。‌‌ 那对闪迪是利好还是利空？短期是“情绪误伤”，长期是“需求确认”。 先看短期的坑。 台积电Q3营收公布后，股价反而跌了1.4%。为什么？因为9月单月营收环比降了0.6%，市场觉得“利好出尽”。更扎心的是，台积电涨的时候，存储股在跌。 10月12日，美光跌超2%，闪迪跌近2%，SK海力士、西部数据全在跌。市场资金在半导体板块内部换仓，钱往台积电的先进制程跑，存储股被抽血。‌ 但长期逻辑是通的。 台积电的营收增长，核心驱动力是AI芯片代工需求，英伟达、AMD、博通这些客户在疯狂下单。AI芯片每多产一颗，后面就得配一堆$BTC 大饼没跳水是因为散户没筹码了，现在散户都在玩山寨📊 History always astonishingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin Looking back at the past few rounds: 🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election 🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election 🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie: 1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm. 2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier. Will there be new changes in 2026? But I am more concerned about three questions: 1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve? 2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing? 3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows? If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price then stabilizes and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. Here’s something you might not know: $STRK vs $NEAR quantum-resistant narrative comparison Both focus on post-quantum security, but their technical approaches are completely different. $STRK relies on the STARK proof system, fundamentally based on hash functions rather than elliptic curves, making the proof layer inherently quantum-resistant. Coupled with native account abstraction, the account signature logic can be upgraded independently without requiring a hard fork. Its drawback is that it is currently still an Ethereum L2, with underlying settlement security dependent on ETH. The team plans to transition to an independent L1, aiming to fully implement quantum resistance by 2027. Market hype focuses on the dual narrative of ZK + quantum resistance, with the ecosystem centered on ZK applications. $NEAR is an L1 public chain that has already launched on mainnet the NIST-standard ML-DSA lattice-based post-quantum signature. Users can rotate quantum-resistant keys per transaction without migrating addresses, making it the first mainstream public chain to implement account-level quantum-resistant signatures. However, its consensus layer has not yet completed quantum-resistant upgrades, with the account layer leading and further upgrades pending. An additional highlight is support for quantum-secure signatures for cross-chain assets, with the narrative leaning towards a general-purpose L1 infrastructure. Differences at the transaction layer: STRK’s quantum resistance is a fundamental advantage at the proof layer, emphasizing a long-term cryptographic security story; NEAR’s account signature feature is already live and verifiable in practice. Most underrated line in TSMC's report is the guide. Next-quarter revenue is guided to $52.3–54.3B vs $46.7B this quarter, with margins of 65–67%. If AI capex were peaking, that guide wouldn't look like this. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit 哈喽大家好，我是謀勝，在币圈謀利赚1万u目前来到了1800u，昨晚数据出来想试一下抄底发现反弹不怎么样后面就转空一手，随便小仓开个空$KORU 毕竟跌了那么多我不信韩国不出来救一下 本轮自年内高点持续回落，核心是HBM盈利预期下调、市场担忧AI资本开支放缓、存储供给风险升温；叠加美国CPI高于预期，美联储加息预期抬升，美债收益率走高，外资持续大额抛售韩半导体权重股。指数连续阴跌过程中，KORU依靠每日重置杠杆，跌幅被三倍放大，同时持续产生净值损耗，反弹回本难度大幅增加。 美债利率涨、加息预期强 → 美元强、外资跑韩股 → KORU必跌 降息、流动性宽松 → 韩股反弹、KORU爆发力最强#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CZ在X上说，以后硬件钱包都该用透明外壳。背景是本月转售商供应链事件，链上统计约8600万到9300万美元被盗，涉及300多个钱包。被改设备削薄电池塞进带LTE模块的板子，包装完好，官方检测照样通过，透明外壳能补上看不见的短板。被忽略的是，植入件能藏在芯片下面，普通人看到电路板也分不清。已确认损失全来自同一家转售商，问题在渠道，Trezor计划明年1月前砍掉第三方转售，OneKey砍掉95%转售商。CZ关联的YZi Labs投了OneKey，这条观点要打折看。我判断下季度厂商主推官方直销，透明外壳顶多算可选款。以上为个人观点记录, 不构成任何投资建议。#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 台积电Q3预估营收1.49万亿新台币、同比增约50%，创历史新高，本质是AI算力订单拉动先进制程放量。但营收高增只是规模表象，真正考验盈利质量的是毛利率能否守住65%-67%区间。当前台积电陷入扩产悖论：AI需求越旺盛，资本开支、折旧、海外建厂成本越高，叠加2nm新工艺爬坡带来的良率损耗，持续侵蚀利润弹性。AI订单高度集中，也暗藏客户议价与需求周期波动风险。若毛利率靠近区间上限，证明先进制程定价权足以覆盖新增成本；若毛利承压，即便营收亮眼，净利润增速也会显著跑输营收，市场会重新评估本轮AI红利的持续性。 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 特斯拉最新交付数据好于市场预期，短期打消了市场对需求持续走弱的担忧，但资金的重心已经从“卖了多少台车”，转移到毛利率能否修复。前期为拉动订单，特斯拉持续采用降价策略，属于典型的以价换量，虽然交付数据回暖，但单车利润被压缩，这也是当前最大的博弈点。 市场现在的核心疑问：销量回暖之后，能不能摆脱价格战，稳住甚至抬升整车毛利率。如果Q3财报毛利率修复、成本管控超预期，会带动TSLA走强，提振纳指成长股情绪 中长期加分项是FSD、Robotaxi和储能业务。FSD订阅是高毛利软件收入，储能业务毛利率显著高于整车，是未来盈利弹性来源；但短期贡献体量有限，很难快速对冲整车利润压力 传导到加密市场：特斯拉属于纳指高弹性标的，股价波动会带动整体风险偏好。如果财报盈利不及预期，容易引发成长股杀估值，间接压制BTC、ETH等高beta品种；盈利超预期，则短期托底情绪。不过这属于跨市场联动，很难走出独立行情 后续跟踪重点：整车毛利率、自由现金流，还有管理层对后续定价策略、FSD商业化落地的表态。交付数据只是前置信号，盈利指标才是决定资金态度的关键。$BTC $ETH 美国通胀数据高于预期，美债收益率走强，美元拉升直接抽走市场流动性。ETH昨日跌6.03%，最低摸到2318，收在2357附近。SOL同步走弱，报100.86，一周跌超7%。衍生品市场多单连环清算，期货未平仓量收缩，杠杆率下降，抛压来自被动平仓而非主动做空。 刚把岗亭窗台上的保温杯拧开，水还有点烫。 ETH现价2366.9。日线MACD金叉向上，RSI从超卖区反弹。但清算地图显示2350到2400区间堆着大量多头爆仓单，向上扫的过程中会先触发一轮清算抛压，短线有回调需求。2400是硬阻力。 操作上，回踩2340到2355区间接多，防守放2318下方，这个位置是昨日低点，破了就认错。第一止盈2400，第二止盈2460。若直接放量突破2400并站稳，可以加仓追多，目标2500。空单不碰，日线金叉结构下逆势空盈亏比太差。 长期趋势没坏，短期就是清算驱动的洗盘。控制仓位，别在2350附近追高。 对讲机响了，先去巡一圈。 $ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 @OKX星球 PPI data is about to be released, BTC has fallen below 81,000, but open interest has quietly surged to 2.58 billion. The lower the price falls, the more leverage is added; this is even scarier than the long-short ratio. In simple terms: $BTC current price 81,000, 24h low 80,168, open interest 2.583 billion, funding rate still positive, longs are still paying shorts. $ETH dropped to 2,363, open interest increased from 1.35 billion to 1.54 billion, people keep adding positions. $SOL is the worst, at 102.26, with a low of 100.46, funding rate has turned negative, shorts are starting to collect money, longs can’t even afford the interest. What does this mean? Longs haven’t fled, they’re still holding on. Price falls, open interest rises, a typical bloodied hold. If tonight at 20:30 PPI exceeds expectations, these added longs will be the first wave of fuel. Once the liquidation dense zone is breached, the chain reaction will be fiercer than last night. I’m not bearish; in this market, opening positions is a gamble on size. Let leverage clean itself out first, wait for liquidation data to cool down and market volatility to narrow, then consider entering with the trend. Key levels: BTC 80,000/78,000, ETH 2,300/2,200, SOL 100/95. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife below these round numbers. How are you planning to act on tonight’s PPI? #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $LINK 这条盘面是真的别扭。9天合作落地、Stellar那边数据服务正式跑起来，放平时这种新闻够拉一波了，结果它24小时跌6.8%，7天跌7%，正好蹲在近7日最低点，量还没放出来，就平时的1.4倍。 利好砸盘，说白了两件事：要么是消息早就被price in，前面30天涨10%、90天涨46%那波聪明钱已经走了；要么是这货压根不看新闻走，只看大饼脸色。今天大饼跌破81k，18万人爆仓，整个盘面都在被迫减仓，谁还有闲钱去接一个利好。 我倾向第一种。真正的好消息，盘面提前三周就在说了，等到公告出来开香槟的，往往是最后进场那批。 看12.02这个位置能不能稳住。要反弹，得先看到放量收回去，现在这种缩量阴跌，接不住。$LINK Predict Fun 单日捕获费用达 31.3 万美元，继世界杯决赛日后再次单日费用超过 30 万美元，位列 BNB Chain 协议费用榜第四 不少预测市场平台在世界杯后逐渐失去活跃度甚至停止运营，Predict Fun 却迎来了显著的二次增长 背后核心驱动力是以 BTC 5min 为代表的短时涨跌市场，贡献了超过 60% 的费用 在最近一个完整交易日中，Predict Fun 的 Crypto 5min 市场单日交易量创下新高，并在交易量、独立交易用户数和交易笔数三大核心指标上全面超越 Polymarket 此外，Predict Fun 在 15min 市场、TradFi 和 Esports 板块同样也在持续增长，特别是 15min 市场同样正逐步争夺 Polymarket 的市场份额The market sentiment has definitely shifted. Brother Maji used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time his total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts—short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH. He's playing a left-right ambidextrous game by himself. Breaking it down makes it clearer: On the BTC side, there's a 40x short opened at 84070, with an unrealized profit of about 220,000 U, and funding fees actually earned 56,600 U, so the account looks favorable; but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can hit him hard, so don't just focus on the unrealized profit. On the ETH side, there's a 25x long opened at 2541, with an unrealized loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's stubbornly holding the long position—either betting on a rebound or using it as a hedge in a portfolio. That strong spike this morning, I seriously suspect it was aimed at his position. HYPE is the harshest: a 5x short opened at 65.8, with an unrealized loss of 4.21 million U, funding fees collected 1.03 million U, which helps ease the cost, but price volatility doesn't care about your feelings. So this is not a full bearish stance; it's clearly a directional differentiation between coins. Going forward, watch three things: whether BTC can stabilize, whether ETH can rise, and whether this HYPE short can hold up. You can observe the smart money's positions, but don't copy blindly—the key is to figure out why they are positioned this way, not just to follow because they bought.存储板块前段时间涨得有多猛，现在跌得就有多干脆 AI需求增长是事实，但股价提前透支预期以及无风险资产影响 闪迪10月29日财报将至，市场已经开始重新定价 我选择继续持有空单，短期看空，但不代表长期看衰存储行业。 业绩再好，也得看市场提前给了多少估值 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Where is the Core public chain headed? Screenshot from OKX on October 15 at 17:02: CORE/USDT perpetual contract at 0.01798, down 2.49% in 24 hours, lowest at 0.01712, with a trading volume of 1.5581 million USDT. EMA5 at 0.01812, EMA10 at 0.01839, and EMA20 at 0.01878—all three lines are above the price, with the short-term moving average below the long-term moving average, indicating a classic bearish setup; MACD's DIFF is -0.00047, histogram -0.00018, still below the zero line; open interest has shrunk to 1.29 million USD, already below the sub-chart scale of 1.59 to 1.92 million. The only line worth watching below is the newly hit 0.01712 today. I went long at 0.02088, which is exactly the resistance line above on the chart. The nominal drop is 13.9%, which translates to approximately -69.4% of principal at 5x leverage, excluding funding fees. The profit/loss shown on screen is -195.93. To get back to 0.02088, it needs to rise 16.1%. The position is more critical than the drop. btc126 wrote today that the distance to the historical low is 8.80%, with that low point on July 28 at 0.0167. Three unresolved issues: On December 22, 2025, the Core Foundation released the 2026 roadmap, stating that repurchases of CORE would be funded by revenues from AMP, BTC LST, SatPay, and ETF/ETP, but no funds have been seen flowing back so far. The actual annual inflation is 35.73%, while the protocol's target is 3% to 5%. During the September validator over-issuance event, there was a hard fork with no rollback, five exchanges suspended deposits and withdrawals, the promised official technical review has not been made public to date, and on October 1, block production was handed over to an independent operator. Three questions for everyone: When will verifiable on-chain data for repurchases be available? If it breaks below 0.01712 to test 0.0167, do you see it as a risk or an opportunity? How much trust is left after an unexplained over-issuance? I am long at 0.02088 myself; this article does not discuss the next steps. All data have sources and snapshot times and do not constitute investment advice. Contracts involve leverage and liquidation risks.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high; what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report? Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform. Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention: ▶️ Gross margin and guidance Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises full-year revenue growth forecasts and increases capital expenditures. ▶️ The Texas factory drama Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved; moving to Texas is not urgent and seems more like a long-term layout or geopolitical bargaining chip for post-2030. Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time. Looking ahead: ▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback. ▶️ Long-term moat is very deep Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.This market really is brutal and heart-wrenching! $SKHYNIX has plunged sharply these past two days, dropping nearly 15% in 24 hours, now barely holding around $939. After last night's CPI data release, it just tanked like it took a laxative. The worst hit are those big players! From last night until now, three major whales got absolutely hammered, closing nearly $3.88 million worth of long positions combined, with actual losses hitting $887,000. Some actively cut losses with tears, others tried to hold on but got forcibly liquidated in batches. Now all three accounts are wiped out and gone—it's a bloodbath! But here's something interesting. This plunge pushed the funding rate into negative territory for a while, indicating panic selling flooding out. Yet this morning, bottom-fishing capital rushed back in aggressively, flipping the funding rate from negative to positive in just two hours—intense battle going on. Looking at the liquidation chart, there's still over $5 million in long liquidation exposure around $888, just about 5.5% below the current price. If it can't hold and dips further, expect another wave of cascading liquidations. The long-side risk is far from over.$ETH $BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report On the same day, $BTC $ETH $SOL all weakened together. But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different. Different reasons for the decline: $BTC is driven by sentiment selling, no large holders fleeing on-chain. There is still support near the 400-day moving average. $ETH is capital withdrawing: ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out. Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop. $SOL is pressured by contracts: Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage. Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover. Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend. Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CPI一热，全场挨锤。$ZEC 、$SOL 、$BTC 都在跌，但跌法完全不同。 $ZEC 摔得最重。24h跌12%，现价1096，持仓量缩13.6%，1900万清算几乎全是多单。资金费年化近10%，杠杆太拥挤，一反转就踩踏。1000是最后防线。 $SOL 被资金面拖着，基本面却最扎实。现价102.3，24h跌5%，ETF连卖7天。Q3应用收入3.65亿，同比增42.6%；10月21日Alpenglow上主网，确认时间从12.8秒压到150毫秒。破100看90。 $BTC 最能扛。现价80927，比ZEC少跌10个点，鲸鱼持仓303万枚，创近一年新高。但美元现货在撤，ETF上周流出6.8亿。跌破80000看78000。 三者本质：ZEC在还杠杆债，SOL在等资金回，BTC是资金没走净。今晚还有一场，继续跌还是止住？边走边看。#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced. TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC. The technology mix shows where demand is moving: · 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2 · 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10% #TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM $xTSM# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Perhaps expectations were too high, and the stock price has already been overdrawn. Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a quarterly record and surpassing market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, making this a very solid foundation. However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch going forward. #Strive increased its BTC holdings by 2,822 coins in two days, with total holdings exceeding 35,000 coins $BTC In eight weeks, it grew by 62%, while the largest one increased by less than 1%. ▪️ Added 12,527 coins from 8/14 to 10/9, a holding growth of about 62% ▪️ During the same period, Strategy's holdings rose from 840,447 to 848,250 coins, an increase of less than 1% ▪️ Added another 2,822 coins in two days, with holdings exceeding 35,000 coins ▪️ Metaplanet sold 10,000 coins in Q3 but bought back 11,000, a net increase of 1,000 coins ▪️ Twenty One has not increased holdings since July 2025, and MARA has remained basically flat since May The divergence is not about who holds the most coins, but about "holding rankings" in terms of volume stock and "growth rankings" in terms of volume increase. 840,447 to 848,250 is a change in stock, 12,527 versus 20,246 is a change in increment—two completely opposite rankings in the same industry. The direction suggests waiting and watching—small-cap companies continuing to absorb increments is the real trend; if the large-cap one accelerates again, the pattern returns to stock.🔥盘面解读｜韩股重挫，存储板块承压，今晚美股开盘预判 配图核心信息：韩国KOSPI盘中大跌超6%，触发Sidecar程序化卖盘暂停机制；SK海力士大跌超8%、三星电子跌近7%，连带日经225跌超3%，日韩芯片股集体走弱。$SNDK $MU ✅事件逻辑 韩股本轮杀跌核心就是半导体存储板块，市场担忧长鑫存储技术突破带来长期供给冲击，叠加通胀、利率预期扰动，资金集中抛售存储芯片标的。三星、SK海力士作为全球DRAM两大龙头大跌，会直接给美股存储股（美光MU、闪迪SNDK）带来情绪传导压力。 📊今晚美股开盘推演 1. 盘前情绪：存储板块大概率低开承压。日韩存储巨头大跌，属于板块负面情绪外溢，美光、闪迪开盘容易受拖累。但要区分：这是远期竞争预期利空，并非企业当期业绩暴雷。 2. 分化机会 美光MU：业务覆盖DRAM，受韩股下跌联动冲击更强，波动更大。 闪迪SNDK：主营NAND闪存，和DRAM赛道无直接竞争。若资金理性区分赛道，后续有机会走出相对抗跌行情。 3. 大盘变量 不能只看韩股，美债收益率、今晚PPI数据、纳指整体情绪，影响力同样很大。如果美债收益率回落，会对冲一部分芯片板块的恐慌。台积电Q3财报出来了，数字炸裂，但股价跌了。 营收同比增长50.9%到1.49万亿新台币，净利润同比增长68.7%到7631亿，创季度新高，超过市场预期。2nm制程占晶圆营收的8%，先进制程整体占比79%。AI芯片需求持续为业绩提供支撑，这个基本盘很硬。 但股价跌了2.67%。问题出在毛利率指引上。公司给的65%到67%，低于Q2实际的67.7%。市场担心的是，AI芯片再旺，如果毛利率往下走，说明先进制程的成本压力在吃掉利润。另外资本开支会不会进一步上调，也是接下来要盯的。 对BTC来说，这事不直接，但底层逻辑连着。台积电是AI算力基建的核心供应商，它的营收和利润验证了AI需求是真实的，算力经济的叙事没断，BTC作为底层锚定物的长期逻辑还在。但毛利率指引偏弱，说明烧钱的代价在上升，整个半导体链条$SKHYNIX SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix has started to consolidate while SanDisk is plummeting!!! Institutions have begun to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard. Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed its overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading the market to briefly lose confidence in SanDisk. Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions have started to support the stock, and retail investors and whales are beginning to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings report. SNDK current price is a good entry for short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $NEAR 永续50倍空单，5.075开，现4.563，浮盈+504.43%。 思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 5.075 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 5.2。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。 这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 4.8 让利润跑。4.2 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Netflix guided Q3 revenue growth of 12% and an operating margin of 33.2%. The year-ago margin was 28.2%, but that quarter included a $619M Brazil tax charge, so the comparison flatters it. A beat or miss hinges on ads. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 最脆弱的一环从来不是方向，是仓位太挤之后大家都不肯先走。 你猜现在最难受的是空头还是追高的人？ 刷到Maji大哥的永续持仓更新，我盯着那组数字看了很久。整体还是BTC空加ETH多再加HYPE空的组合，但账面盈亏已经跟着行情撕成两半。 - BTC空单四十倍全仓，持仓243.96枚，名义约1994万U，开仓84070，未实现盈利约56.87万U，资金费还收了6.41万U，爆仓价104380附近。 - ETH多单二十五倍全仓，持仓7222枚，名义约1743万U，开仓2541，浮亏约92.27万U，爆仓价1623.5。 - HYPE空单五倍全仓，持仓26.83万枚，名义约2168万U，开仓66.24，浮亏约390.94万U，但资金费收入约104.2万U，爆仓价99.76。 这组仓位其实在讲一件事。钱现在更愿意奖励看空BTC的人，却还在惩罚看空HYPE的人。前者顺着宏观避险和风险偏好收缩的方向，后者撞上了叙事和买盘的惯性。ETH夹在中间，既没跟上BTC的疲软，也没吃到HYPE那种情绪溢价，所以它的多单成了拖累。 我更在意的是情绪层面。HYPE这笔浮亏已经接近390万U，换成一般人早就砍了，但大哥#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️需要留意的风险 1. 毛利率小幅环比下滑，主要是2nm新制程爬坡阶段成本偏高，短期拖累毛利水平 ​ 2. 高度依赖AI大客户，若未来AI资本开支降温，订单会承压 ​ 3. 海外建厂（美国、日本）成本高、建设周期长，会持续抬升资本开支压力 ✅一句话总结 AI算力需求持续爆发，带动台积电先进制程订单饱满，推动利润连续六季创新高；2nm顺利量产，维持技术壁垒，但高资本开支与AI需求波动是未来两大变量。#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue also reached a new high; what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report? According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform. Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention: ▶️ Gross margin and guidance Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises the full-year revenue growth forecast and increases capital expenditure. ▶️ The Texas factory drama Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip. Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered. Looking ahead: ▶️ Beware of short-term profit-taking Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback. ▶️ Deep long-term moat Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend. Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or stick to steady progress?CPI一出，很多人第一反应：物价又烫了，黄金该闪亮登场了吧？✨ 现实反手一巴掌：金价跳水，1.65%瞬间蒸发，4096失守，4088都摸到了。😵 BTC却像没事人，81000—83000区间散步。🚶‍♂️ 逻辑不复杂：通胀顽固→美联储不敢松→高利率续命→美债收益率往上窜→黄金持有成本变贵→资金撤退。📉 黄金的剧本早改了：从前是“通胀来了我涨”，现在是“美联储鹰了我就跪”。🦅 说到底，黄金、BTC、美股，看起来各玩各的，其实都在押注同一道题：流动性松不松。💧 别跟K线较劲，先看央妈脸色。市场没变疯，只是换导演了。🎬#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 台积电Q3营收再创新高，但毛利率环比回落是本次财报最大看点。AI需求景气确定，但大规模扩产带来折旧压力，正在开始侵蚀毛利率。市场现在早已消化Q3的高营收，全部押注Q4营收指引与资本开支计划。 资本开支上调，远期利好产能、巩固先进制程垄断地位；短期代价就是利润率承压。马斯克Terafab洽谈代工属于远期题材，短期无业绩贡献。接下来财报会议，重点盯三件：Q4营收指引、资本开支上调幅度、管理层对未来毛利率中枢的表态。阿美总部遭袭，新闻让人紧张，但先别把办公楼受损写成原油已经减产。 美联社10月14日援引地区官员称，达兰的阿美总部遭打击，高层办公室所在楼层受损，未报告人员伤亡。这个消息说明核心企业的办公设施也受到威胁，可它本身没有告诉我们，油田产量或出口装船减少了多少。 我觉得这时候最该分开的，是已经发生的损失，和市场担心下一次袭击的风险。前者要靠生产、炼厂和港口运行信息核对；后者可能在尚未停产时，就让买家更担心交付。这两层都影响价格，但不能用同一组叙述替代。 如果后续确认生产照常，供应缺口就不该凭想象扩大。可下一次呢？连续袭击会让人继续追问，关键设施还能不能安全运转。风险仍在，具体损失却需要另外核实。 我希望伤亡和破坏都能尽快停止，也不愿把每一次袭击都当成刺激行情的素材。接下来会更留意阿美的运行说明，以及实际出口有没有改变。做能源判断，承认“目前不知道减产多少”，比为了一个鲜明观点随手填补证据更负责。总部受到打击已经够严重，不需要再给它添加尚未证实的供应损失。 #沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Q3净利润确实炸裂，但股价反而跌了2%多，典型的“利好落地即利空”。市场跌的不是现在，而是Q4毛利率指引（65%-67%）低于Q2。AI需求是确定的，但2nm爬坡和海外建厂的成本开始显现，加上资本开支可能进一步上调，资金担心利润率见顶。 短线是估值消化，长期看AI结构性逻辑没坏。我选择等回调企稳再考虑，不追高。 大家怎么看？毛利率下滑是短期扰动还是长期趋势？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️需要留意的风险 1. 毛利率小幅环比下滑，主要是2nm新制程爬坡阶段成本偏高，短期拖累毛利水平 ​ 2. 高度依赖AI大客户，若未来AI资本开支降温，订单会承压 ​ 3. 海外建厂（美国、日本）成本高、建设周期长，会持续抬升资本开支压力 ✅一句话总结 AI算力需求持续爆发，带动台积电先进制程订单饱满，推动利润连续六季创新高；2nm顺利量产，维持技术壁垒，但高资本开支与AI需求波动是未来两大变量。$BLUR 链上全是大额出货，这波空单我拿定了 兄弟们，绝大部分人都在看多，那咱们就反着来，看空！链上数据已经把底牌亮出来了。 据Arkham监测，今早一笔高达9857万枚BLUR（约400万美元）从匿名地址直接转入Coinbase Prime。这是大资金明牌出货。做市商Wintermute也没闲着，累计向OKX、Binance、Coinbase转入了约260万美元的BLUR。做市商往交易所转币，从来不是为了护盘，是准备卖。 最狠的一刀来自韩国交易所Upbit，已经把BLUR加入交易警告名单，并暂停了充提业务。这套流程老玩家都懂，接下来大概率就是下架。一旦下架，流动性瞬间枯竭，想跑都跑不掉。 链上数据比K线诚实。我0.0127开的空单继续拿着，防守放0.0132上方，下方先看0.012，跌破就是0.011。剩下的交给时间。 $BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced. TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC. The technology mix shows where demand is moving: · 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2 · 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10% #TSMCQ3RecordProfit #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 台积电这份Q3财报看着亮眼，利润创了季度新高，但毛利率不如上个季度。利好提前被市场消化，财报一出来资金就跑路，股价直接收跌，所以我觉得后续得看AI芯片订单能不能稳住。聊一下今天“预测一哥”的事情，我跟当事人并不熟悉，所以下面论事不论人。 其实很简单就是有些事情“不上称四两重，上了秤千斤都压不住”。预测市场在很多国家的法律都是灰色地带，不光是国内。而且大部分国家都把预测市场视为赌场或者菠菜的变种，基本都要有相应的牌照。 有时候自己私下玩玩基本不会有人管你，但是真要是搞社区，拉人去玩就会出问题。都说预测市场有技巧，但是99%人做不到稳赚不赔，赚钱了大家一团和气，赔钱了呢？输多上头以后可能真的会“点”了你这个拉他去玩的人。 刑法303条就是关于赌博的： 《刑法》第303条第1款：赌博罪 是以营利为目的，组织多人赌博或以赌博为业。 《刑法》第303条第2款：开设赌场罪 是经营赌场、控制赌博平台、做代理接受投注，或参与相关利润分成。 《刑法》第303条第3款：组织参与国（境）外赌博罪 是招揽中国公民去境外赌场赌博，达到法定严重情节。 所以自己玩玩没啥，拉人去玩还是要三思。因为我的简介中也写着预测市场，也有不少项目方找我做返佣分成，我是从来不做，有些钱不能挣，毕竟安全第一。