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Breadth is green, sentiment is not. 56% of 25 liquid pairs closed up, yet Fear & Greed prints 25: Extreme Fear. 14 up, 10 down, 1 flat. No one is selling here, no one is buying either. I am waiting for the index to clear 30 before adding risk. Wrong if breadth falls under 40% while fear holds. Breadth or the index? $BTC $ETH $SOL #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.The moment the non-farm payroll data popped up last night, I was watching the market closely. BTC first surged near 76,100 then quickly pulled back to around 75,500. That move felt like the "exhaustion of good news" breath. When you see this upper shadow candle, do you first think about chasing longs or reducing positions? I didn’t rush to act; I first wanted to see what this wave was really trading. October’s non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, about 65,000 higher than market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, which is a bit too strong. The December rate hike bet was pushed up to 70-80%, and risk appetite was immediately suppressed by one notch. What’s more worth watching here is the rhythm, not the direction. After the data release, $BTC couldn’t hold above 76,000, indicating short-term funds had already priced in "strong employment = more hawkish"; 75,000 is the current key support, and if it breaks, stop-loss orders might deepen the pullback. $ETH fell below 2,300 and settled near 2,230, with a drop noticeably larger than BTC’s; altcoins’ elasticity in this kind of macro shock actually becomes a burden. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 28, showing sentiment is already cold but not yet fully cleared out. I tend to see this as a divergence phase within the trend—not a start, nor a full distribution yet. The bullish path is: $BTC holds 75,000, consolidates to digest rate hike expectations, and after sentiment recovers, tests the upside again; the bearish risk is: December rate hike odds continue to rise, $ETH can’t lead altcoins, and risk budgets shrink further. At times like this, position management is more important than guessing price points—don’t let a single upper shadow candle decide your rhythm for you Leverage doesn't give a second chance
After looking at Brother 800's bill, the most glaring thing isn't the loss amount, but the leverage multiple. BTC full position 19x long, opened at 77700, current price 75800, unrealized loss of $30,000, return rate -45%; ETH 17x long, opened at 2295, current price 2231, unrealized loss of $17,000, -47%; there's also a 20x BTC long position not fully shown. All three are high-leverage longs, all in the wrong direction.
The overall account is even more brutal: lost $1.06 million in 7 days, nearly 30-day win rate 10.52%, maximum drawdown 73.8%. A few days ago there was over 8 million RMB, now the account only has $300,000 left, equivalent to just over 2 million RMB. This drawdown speed is even harsher than the US stock market crash.
The most heartbreaking part is, he previously favored SOXS—3x short semiconductor, basically shorting before the US stock market crashed, probably couldn't withstand the rebound and cut losses, then turned around to go all-in high-leverage longs on BTC and ETH. BTC dropped from 81000 to 75000, getting slapped on both ends.
Core
Brother 800 isn't not trying hard, it's just the leverage is too brutal. 19x, 20x full positions, a 5% adverse move means liquidation; a $300,000 account holding $1.27 million BTC positions, this isn't trading, it's gambling with life. How long to earn $8 million, but losing it all takes only 7 days.401(k) opening the door does not equal a bull market button; don't misinterpret "rule advancement" as "funds have arrived." Will this news really make long-term money rush into BTC immediately? Last night, I saw EBSA submit the final 1210-AC38 rule to OIRA for review. My first reaction was not excitement but recalling the market's early agitation before every "positive policy implementation." The 401(k) is the largest retirement savings pool in the U.S., measured in trillions of dollars. The Department of Labor has been cautious about crypto assets in the past. Now that the rule is under White House review, it does mean the legal pathway is becoming clearer. But note, this is just a procedural milestone, not that the funding channel has opened yet. What concerns me more is the emotional mismatch: many will directly translate this news as "institutional long-term money is coming," then chase prices higher. However, the final rule still needs to complete review and publication, usually with a transition period, and actual allocation takes time. In the short term, it is more likely to reflect a warming of risk appetite rather than real incremental capital. BTC and ETH will be the first to receive allocations, but the rhythm is more like emotions move first, prices validate later. On the bullish side, if the final version provides enough flexibility in allocation ratios, custody standards, and prudent assessments, the imagination space for long-term capital entry will open, which also reinforces ETH's institutional narrative a second time. The bearish risk lies in the details: unclear ratio caps, strict custody thresholds, and prolonged effective dates could turn the "positive" into a one-time emotional pulse, making altcoins more prone to hype and quick retreat. I will watch two signals: first, the finalNonfarm payrolls 165,000, expected 65,000, two and a half times.
Unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, hourly wages up 3.1%, and the previous two months were revised up by 84,000.
December rate hike bets surged directly to 80%.
By the old logic, the Nasdaq should have fallen.
But the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21% — it had just dropped 12.25% yesterday.
The data itself hasn’t failed: the bears had already sold off what should have fallen the day before, and the bad news actually became a reason to cover positions.
The market is no longer pricing in rate hikes, but rather "who will concede first."
Will you dare to chase this rebound on Monday?
☀️ Uncle’s Morning Report 11.07
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 When the $75,000 wall was pushed down, I stared at the order book for a long time. The activity was indeed lively, but the support underneath was so thin it made me uneasy. Have you noticed that the more everyone shouts "once in four years" on such nights, the easier it is to overlook what the structure itself is saying? The Binance spot buy wall of over $20 million was pushed from 75,000 down below 74,800. The previously mentioned spot buying point was really touched tonight. On the surface, it looks like "the opportunity has arrived," but what I want to say is another layer: the wall being eaten away does not mean someone is absorbing it below; more often, it’s just orders being canceled or penetrated, and the real transaction depth actually becomes shallower. This is the detail I care about most tonight. From the perspective of the volatility phase, the market is not really trading "cheap," but rather "who breaks first." After the buy wall disappears, short-term volatility is amplified, stop losses and leveraged liquidations are more easily triggered consecutively, and price swings near key levels become more intense. The bullish logic is: if the price can stand back above 74,800 with volume, it means this downward pressure was just washing out floating positions, risk appetite will quickly recover, and after BTC stabilizes, ETH and altcoins will have room to rotate. Conversely, if it can’t hold and the rebound lacks volume, it means the disappearance of this wall exposes real selling pressure, sentiment will slide from "bottom fishing" to "wait and see," and capital preference will shift toward defense. My own feeling is that tonight feels more like a volatility test rather than a clean bottom confirmation. The excitement is on the surface, the structure is underneath, and the two are not aligned $BTC spot buying has already started entering the market, but the perpetual contract market is heavily shorting.
This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin has been unable to rebound for a long time.
However, if spot buying continues to strengthen, shorts may be forced to liquidate en masse, which could trigger a fierce surge with a large bullish candle (God Candle).At this time last week, everyone was sharing screenshots of their profits in the square. Today at this time, they are sharing their position costs.
From 81,000 down to 74,888, in six trading days, over 6,300 dollars lost.
But I’m more focused on another number: the Fear and Greed Index dropped directly from 50 to 25. The price only fell 7.8%, but the sentiment dropped a full level. This shows that what’s falling is confidence, the structure hasn’t been broken.
My judgment: this round is washing out leverage and sentiment; BTC’s major cycle hasn’t been fundamentally damaged yet. The truly critical level is around 73,000.
The current position is very clear: 74,000 to 75,000 is the floor for this wave, 77,500 to 78,000 is the ceiling. In between, chasing highs or selling lows is easily stopped out, not an opportunity.
#BTC #ETH #FearAndGreedIndex #Futures #LiveTrading$BTC I've never quite understood: a coin spends its own money to buy itself back, then throws it into a black hole to burn it—what's the point?
Hyperliquid did exactly that yesterday, repurchasing and burning 21,040 HYPE tokens within 24 hours at an average price of $78.90, burning a total of $1.66 million. The platform's earnings didn't go into anyone's pocket; instead, they went back to the market to buy their own tokens and burn them.
There are indeed benefits: fewer HYPE tokens in circulation means tighter supply, making the price more likely to rise. But there's a very practical issue: the money spent on burning comes from transaction fees, which only exist if people trade. When the market cools down, what’s generous today might not be sustainable tomorrow.
So don't assume it's stable just because you see "burned $1.66 million."Many people are still waiting for Dogecoin to hit $1.
Let's do the math: to reach $1, it needs to achieve a market cap of over 150 billion, which is more than ten times the current value. Moreover, it has no total supply cap and keeps increasing its supply every year, continuously diluting its value.
Back when memes were at their wildest and Elon Musk was fully promoting it, the highest it reached was only 0.73. Unless the next super bull market happens and the entire crypto bubble and traffic shift over, the difficulty is extremely high.Seeing "participate on the IPO day," many people easily mistake it as a benefit of asset tokenization. Dinari promises to launch dShares on the Anthropic IPO day, allowing U.S. investors to participate; previously, Ondo announced plans targeting non-U.S. investors. This is still a promise, not yet implemented.
On the other hand, I think the real competitive point of this news is U.S. market access, not tokenization speed. One reason is that, although both revolve around Anthropic, their target audiences differ. If both plans are realized, then competition must be viewed based on investors' locations, not just who launches earlier.
Another reason is that Dinari's tokens in the U.S. are still non-transferable and cannot be used in DeFi; expanded access does not equal expanded on-chain utility. I would see this as a trial of the issuance channel, and next, watch how the promise is implemented, without rushing to add drama to the entire DeFi sector.One coin spent 1.66 million USD in a day to buy itself back, then burned it. Hyperliquid did exactly this in the past 24 hours: cumulatively repurchased and burned 21,040 $HYPE at an average price of 78.90 USD.
The numbers are not parallel. 21,040 multiplied by 78.90 equals 1.66 million USD. This money is the platform's real income, not newly issued tokens, not from the foundation's inventory, but money taken to buy on the market.
The mechanism is the key. Repurchase and burn do two things simultaneously: place real buy orders on the order book to support the price, and permanently remove these tokens from circulation. Most deflation is just locking tokens or promises; the coins still exist but are temporarily inactive. Burning means the coins disappear from the ledger, permanently cutting the supply curve.
What does this mean? Supply shrinks unilaterally, and as long as demand does not significantly shrink, the price's upward elasticity increases. But the key for models like $HYPE is not the burn amount on a single day, but whether it can be sustained—the burn money comes from transaction fees, i.e., platform activity. When activity rises, burning accelerates; when it falls, burning slows immediately.
So what really matters is not today's 1.66 million, but the burn amount at the same time next week. If it stays at this level for several consecutive weeks, it means stable income and structural deflation; if it drops after one week, today's figure is more like a nice number.
$BTC and $ETH of this scale won't use burning to control supply; this logic only works for small market cap, high cash flow protocols.U.S. stocks had a rough week. On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.1% to close at 24,579, still in a correction zone, down 3.4% for the week; the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, down 2.7% for the week; the Dow Jones fell another 0.5%. Thursday's sharp drop was due to elections—10 states held 41 local votes, with only one not siding against data center restrictions.
Friday's rebound was supported by chips, with Micron $MU up 5.1% and Nvidia $NVDA up 2.8%. Dragging behind was Microsoft, with reports saying it plans to use fewer new cloud providers, causing its stock to fall 1%, shaking confidence in AI computing power.
$OPENAI CFO Friar came out to steady nerves, saying the midterm elections didn’t fundamentally change anything; data center investments continue, demand is real, and funding will keep coming. CNBC confirmed that $11 billion has been raised so far in this round, with possibly another $9 billion in the coming weeks. She still looks to 2027 for IPOs, while Anthropic aims to get ahead with a Nasdaq listing targeted for mid-November.
An off-market highlight: Airbnb earned $3.16 per share in Q3, with revenue up 19% to $4.9 billion, and its stock rose 11.7% in one day.
Next week, eyes are on CoreWeave’s earnings report; its stock rose 6.3% on Friday. If Microsoft’s reduced use of new cloud providers is confirmed by its guidance, this rebound will be for nothing; orders and capital expenditures need to hold up for chip stocks to recover. No matter how tough Friar talks, losing 40 out of 41 ballot measures can’t be changed, and Texas approvals remain the real hurdle. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Bitcoin stayed flat around 75,900 overnight, and the Nasdaq's 1.1% rebound didn't lift it. The Treasury just kicked MEXC out of the US financial system, the market lacks momentum, and RAY, ARB, and ZEC each have their own issues.
$RAY near 1.79, a DEX supported by US stock tokens 📈
Up 6.2% in 24 hours, bouncing about 20% from Wednesday's low of 1.48. According to Blockworks data, 39% of Raydium's October swap revenue came from tokenized US stocks, memes only accounted for 32%, and Q3 net revenue rose 264% quarter-over-quarter.
$ARB near 0.166, watching frozen funds
Up 5.7% in 24 hours. Binance proposed on November 5 that ArbitrumDAO release 8,426 frozen ETH and about 74.56 million ARB; the vote process will take over seven weeks. Another approximately 92.65 million tokens will unlock on November 16.
$ZEC near 1,320, upgrade landed without a dump
Up 5.1% in 24 hours. NU7 activated on Friday, block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of fees are reserved for future miners. The anticipated positive effect was realized, but the market didn't react.
ZEC has the strongest fundamentals; pushing further to 1,375 will depend on Bitcoin's mood. RAY's story is the freshest, but 1.78 is pressing against the 4-hour 200 MA; if it can't break through, it's just a rebound. ARB is the weakest, with more tokens unlocking than frozen; the longer the DAO delays, the harder it is to sustain this gain. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 74888 formed a pin bar, but I still don't dare to catch the falling knife. Last night I stared at the 75200 line until midnight, but it still broke — Nonfarm payrolls came out with an increase of 165,000, more than double the expected 60,000, and the probability of a December rate hike jumped directly to 77%, $BTC plunged to 74888 overnight, the floor broke as soon as it was touched.
My inclination is: it broke but then recovered, this pin bar has some significance. After touching 74888, it pulled back above 75800 within an hour, and in the morning it was still hovering around 75900; on the US stock side, the Nasdaq rebounded 1.09%, AMD surged 11% in one go, the panic seems to have eased.
On the downside, we must acknowledge: a recovery doesn't mean it's all clear. Nonfarm is so hot, the 77% rate hike probability is a solid bearish factor; Nasdaq rebounded, but BTC didn't follow, hovering around 75900 all night without holding firm. If it really breaks 74888, the next stop is 73000, and by then, even calling it a fake drop would be stubborn.
So this morning, a straightforward question: do you think the 74888 pin bar is the bottom, and dare to catch the falling knife near 75000 betting it will rebound to 80000 first, or do you think breaking 75200 means it's broken, and acting now is just giving money to the bears, waiting to break 74888 before making a move?
For record-keeping only, not investment advice
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Scumbag's observation on Anthropic, IPO (2)
Anthropic
Q1: Revenue about $4.7 billion, the exact figure in S-1 is $4.731 billion.
Q2: Revenue $11.555 billion, year-over-year growth about 1,368%. The revised version discloses Q2 operating profit of $974 million, adjusted operating profit of $2.2 billion, adjusted profit margin 19%.
Q3: Revenue $16.96 billion, year-over-year growth 1,127%, quarter-over-quarter growth 47%, net loss $23.3 billion. Operating profit turned from Q2 profit to a $567 million loss, adjusted operating profit $2.5 billion, adjusted profit margin dropped to 15%.
Scumbag thinks the large loss in Q3 is largely due to spending big money renting SpaceX's computing power, but the revenue effect can only be seen in Q4.
On-chain valuation has dropped quite a bit again, currently at 1.37 trillion.
If the revenue at the end of '26, i.e., December, can reach $8.5 billion, then Scumbag thinks a 15~20x price-to-sales ratio is still relatively reasonable. That would be a valuation of 1.53~2.04 trillion.
The current on-chain valuation still has some attractiveness #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 The key point is not how much cash there is, but that cash is starting to decrease: Q1 peak was about $397 billion, Q2 dropped to about $365 billion, Q3 is expected to be about $358 billion; Q2 net stock purchases were about $20 billion, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling, and acquisitions include Taylor Morrison and an investment in Alphabet. Abel has shifted from "hoarding cash" to "active allocation," which is the most practical good news — money is starting to be used effectively, benefiting long-term shareholders.
Impact: If Q3 cash declines in an orderly manner and is directed toward high-quality assets, it will support the "Abel premium," and the stock price will be resilient; the decline in tech stocks also makes Berkshire a safe haven and may provide opportunities for favorable exits. Risks include weak insurance underwriting profits, EPS expected to drop about 5.6%, and unrealized losses on Alphabet investment; if cash declines too quickly or relies on high-priced buybacks to prop up the market, there will be concerns about "spending money just to spend money." Conclusion: The good news lies in allocation discipline, not in single-quarter profits.This market is a bit crazy! $BTC current short liquidations are about 5 times that of longs.
Below $74K–$73K, there is only a small chunk of long liquidation liquidity left; besides that, the market's biggest pain point seems to have shifted upwards.
It's possible the price might dip below $75K again to sweep liquidity, but I tend to think this is just the final shakeout.
What’s really worth looking forward to might be the subsequent breakout upwards, harvesting the large amount of liquidity accumulated above.#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments Berkshire no longer just hoards cash: After peaking at $397 billion, Abel starts "spending money"
Berkshire's massive cash reserves are reaching a turning point.
In Q1 2026, Berkshire's cash reserves hit a historic peak of about $397 billion, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of net stock sales. But by Q2, cash dropped to $365.5 billion, consuming about $31.5 billion in a single quarter—still the second highest in history, but the narrative has shifted from "why not spend money" to "how to start spending money."Last night, I was just one click away from opening a short position. But before placing the order, I decided to check spot market activity. What I found completely changed my perspective. Here's the breakdown: 📊 Spot vs. Futures Trading Volume - $BTC : $9.67B spot vs. $104.005B futures (9.3% spot) - $ETH : $4.116B spot vs. $59.878B futures (6.9% spot) - $SOL : $929M spot vs. $8.707B futures (10.7% spot) - $ZEC: $718M spot vs. $10.267B futures (7.0% spot) Futures volume is roughly 10 times highe#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 It's not the "end of the hoarding money era," but rather the capital allocation rhythm of the Abel era has changed. Cash decreased from 397.4 billion to 365.5 billion, but 365.5 billion is still a historical high — indicating it's not a full-scale chase for gains, but selective buying: Google, own stock, overall acquisitions, all are specific price/value opportunities.Last night, the US stock market finally stopped falling and rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising about 1.1%, the S&P 500 up about 0.3%, but the Dow Jones still closed lower. The Nasdaq had just plunged 5.52% the day before, so this rebound looks more like a recovery after a concentrated sell-off in tech stocks, and it does not yet indicate a full restoration of risk appetite. For BTC and ETH, the most important focus is the US nonfarm payroll data released last night and whether institutional funds are willing to re-enter the market. ① Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the Fed's easing expectations may continue to be under pressure. At 21:30 Beijing time last night, the US announced 165,000 new nonfarm jobs in October, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, showing stronger employment performance than market expectations. Steady employment indicates that the US economy still has resilience, but it may also leave the Fed with less reason to cut rates quickly. If the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen as a result, BTC and ETH may face pressure; conversely, if the market focuses more on a soft landing for the economy, risk assets may also benefit. ② Tech stocks rebounded, but US Treasury yields did not show a significant simultaneous decline. Last night, chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD rebounded, driving the Nasdaq higher. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.8%. My understanding is that funds are willing to buy back some tech stocks, but this does not mean the liquidity environment has improved. Especially since BTC is increasingly influenced by institutional funds, the sustained high US Treasury yields may continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. ③ ETF funds are the real issue BTC needs to face. On November 5, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 It's not the "end of the hoarding money era," but rather the capital allocation rhythm of the Abel era has changed. Cash decreased from 397.4 billion to 365.5 billion, but 365.5 billion is still a historical high — indicating it's not a full-scale chase for gains, but selective buying: Google, own stock, overall acquisitions, all are specific price/value opportunities.BTC current price is around 76K, short-term downward momentum is insufficient, a rebound is possible but reversal is not yet confirmed.
On the four-hour chart: after a long lower shadow bearish candle followed by a doji, a second doji is brewing, indicating that the dip is being supported and bulls and bears are in a stalemate. If the second doji closes, the short-term bottoming signal strengthens. There is large buy support at 76K, but volume is not accumulating, so bearish pressure could still break through.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December has risen above 70%. BTC did not continue to crash, which is a signal that bearish news is not causing a drop. If there is no new bearish news next week, a rebound is highly likely.
Upside targets are 77.3K, 78K, and further 79.8K; downside 75K–75.5K is the critical line—if not broken, no major issues. Currently, do not chase shorts. #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC $ZEC $HYPE @OKX中文 @OKX星球 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 首先我们直入主题，美国国会参众两院换届绝非简单的党派轮替，而是对美伊四十年来地缘博弈底层逻辑的重大重构。 行政层面的“灰色妥协”空间被立法铁幕彻底封死，中东火药桶的导火索再度被拉紧。 对于我们交易员而言，这不仅是一场地缘新闻扰动，更是一场涵盖“美联储利率天花板”、“全球流动性潮汐”、“加密资产属性阶级分化”与“OFAC链上制裁审查”的宏观风暴。 美国国会参众两院换届不仅是党派席位的轮替，更是美伊四十年来地缘博弈底层逻辑的重大转折点 首先我为什么会怎么说呢？为什么这将美伊底层博弈逻辑的重大改变呢？ 近年来，美伊局势一直处于微妙的“灰色默契”。美国白宫为了压制国内汽油价格通胀，在过去数年间，在对伊原油制裁执行层面采取了一定程度的“战略性睁一眼闭一眼”，以达到减缓自家石油价格膨胀，这种不存在于谈判桌上的“灰色协议”，致伊朗原油日出口量一度重返 150 万桶以上，大部分流向亚洲独立炼厂。 然而，新一届国会的交接与权力格局重塑，彻底终结了这一行政默契： 为什么这一届国会的交易，这种“灰色默契”彻底被撕碎了呢？ 主要原因权力的交接！两个班底不同的政策！不同的目标#BerkshireQ3CashOutlook 9:30, poured a glass of water and came back to check the market: BTC is still hovering around 76,000, 3 hours ago it was 76,020, now 75,925.
$BTC: Moved less than $100 in three hours
Current price 75,924.6, 24h down 0.05%. 24h high 76,379, low 74,888, lost 75,200 overnight but recovered. Long-short ratio 3.04, same as this morning. Open interest 2.63 billion U. In the past 8 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 1.142 million, shorts 1.564 million, shorts took more hits.
$ETH: Still hovering around 2,240, shorts took another 780,000
Current price 2,243.17, 24h up 0.52%. 24h high 2,254, low 2,210. Long-short ratio 3.56, lower than this morning's 3.63. Open interest 1.536 billion U. In the past 3 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 323,000, shorts 782,000, shorts got cleaned out.
$SOL: The best performer among the three, longs took the most hits
Current price 90.36, 24h up 0.75%, the highest among the three, holding above 90. Long-short ratio 3.74, highest among the three. Open interest 315 million U. In the past 10 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 800,000, shorts 293,000, longs bleeding the most.
Commentary: Price hasn't moved, long-short ratio hasn't changed, liquidations haven't stopped.
Summary: Sideways trading is not stabilization, the direction hasn't emerged. Chasing longs in the morning is easy to catch the baton. Is 76,000 a bottom test or a sharpening knife?
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 My first reaction when I see such a large long position is to put it on the watchlist; my second reaction is to remind myself: don't take someone else's position as your own entry condition. After learning quantitative trading, I always want to add a filter to impulsiveness 🤖
This time, the wallet Core Trader 64 (0x58b279…211f3) opened a long $HYPE position with 10x leverage, holding 5,000 tokens, with a nominal value of about $393,700, reference price $78.746. Currently, this is just an opening position info; the outcome is still unknown.
If I were to write this as a strategy, I would set it as: if a large leveraged long is detected, enter observation; only if independent entry conditions are met and the preset stop loss corresponds to a loss within budget, is trading allowed. My judgment is that large orders are suitable as alerts, not direct buy signals.
The reason is practical: nominal position is not principal; roughly calculated at 10x, the margin corresponds to about $39,370, but the actual margin setting is unknown; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about $3,937, and leverage amplifies the cost of trial and error. Moreover, we cannot see hedges or the full account; a single long order does not prove the other party is only betting on a rise.
The loophole in this rule is that "independent conditions" can easily be explained post hoc to fit expectations, so it must be fixed in advance. If you were to write this filter, would you require price confirmation, or first limit stop loss distance and single trade risk budget?#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
Stop hyping “cross-market diversification”! When the AI bubble bursts, Bitcoin will still take a heavy hit.
Last night’s massive plunge in the US stock market is definitely a historic macro turning point.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 12%, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2020. In just one day, $3 trillion in market value vanished into thin air.
Why the crash? On the surface, it’s due to post-midterm election concerns about stricter regulation on AI data centers and the unsustainable high valuations of tech stocks. But the underlying truth is revealed directly by the community views in the screenshot: crowded positions causing a stampede and deleveraging.
In recent years, Wall Street has been wildly hyping AI infrastructure. People buy chips in US stocks and AI concept tokens in crypto (like computing power, decentralized AI). It seems like cross-market diversification, but in reality, everyone is on the same boat betting on AI infrastructure.
Now it’s exploded: in a high interest rate environment, institutional funds can’t turn over. To cope with redemptions and margin pressure, what’s the first move institutions make? Indiscriminate asset sell-offs.
So, all risk assets are falling in sync. Bitcoin not only wasn’t spared but actually became the “ATM” for institutions deleveraging.
The current conclusion is clear: the fundamental belief hasn’t completely collapsed yet, but the liquidity crisis and deleveraging stampede are not over. Don’t try to guess the bottom before the selling pressure subsides.
What do you all think? How far will Bitcoin’s current shakeout go before it’s over? JPMorgan is optimistic about BTC returns in the long term but still considers high volatility a barrier to allocation
JPMorgan Asset Management estimates an annualized 10-year benchmark return of about 10% for $BTC, while also estimating its volatility at around 55%, and points out that its correlation with other assets is unstable. This combination is important: a high expected long-term return does not mean low short-term risk. Institutions may be willing to study BTC but are not necessarily willing to increase positions with every dip.
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 I've seen quite a few brothers shouting "🐮 is back," so I'll share my own judgment: I think it's still too early to say the bull is back.
This round of rally looks more like a recovery after concentrated negative news has settled, rather than a trend reversal. Previously, the midterm election results, regulatory expectations repeatedly fluctuating, and the Binance security incident all exerted pressure. BTC once dipped near $75,000, and ETH also clearly pulled back. After panic selling eased, selling pressure temporarily lightened; meanwhile, yesterday BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $74.6 million, ending three consecutive days of net outflows. Coupled with a large number of shorts being liquidated, short covering amplified the rebound.
So a short-term rebound is possible, but defining the rebound directly as a bull return is not well-founded. Currently, I remain bearish, at least until we see whether funds can continue to flow in and whether macro and regulatory disturbances truly ease. Don't let a single bullish candle change your conviction. Last night, the non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than expected: 165,000 new jobs added (the market was only hoping for around 60,000). $BTC dropped from about 76,040 near 20:00 to the hourly low of 74,888 at 22:00, a roughly 1.5% drop in two hours; $ETH simultaneously touched 2,210.
Currently, OKX spot BTC is around 75,900, ETH about 2,243, both rebounding about 1.3%–1.5% from the lows. The total BTC trading volume during those three non-farm payroll hourly candles was about 186 million USDT, then shrank to tens of millions in the following hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 28 yesterday to 25, entering extreme fear.
OKX perpetual BTC open interest remains around 2.63 billion USD, with a slightly positive funding rate (about 0.0056%). CoinGlass reported last night that liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours totaled about 470 million USD, with long positions accounting for nearly 80%.
My view is that the non-farm payrolls dealt another blow to "rate cut expectations." Holding 75,000 counts as a short-term win, but after the volume shrinks and prices rebound, don’t rush to chase; first, see if the US stock futures over the weekend cooperate.
$BTC $ETH Celebrity learning about crypto does not mean the market will rise
Aoi Sora posted that she is learning about $BTC, but the industry changes too fast and she finds it a bit hard to understand.
People in the comments are already asking her which coin she plans to buy.
The key point here: learning about crypto and buying crypto are two different things.
There are several steps between someone starting to understand assets and actually putting money in.
How is this number calculated: a post has 110,000 views and 102 likes.
This translates to an interaction rate of less than 0.1%, with the popularity staying at the spectator level.
Real money entering the market depends on placing orders, not posting.
Her first lesson should be how to keep private keys safe, not which coin to buy.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank has invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI, holding about 13% of the shares, with part of the funds coming from a record $11.1 billion high-yield bond. However, the Q2 (April–June) financial report released in August shows SoftBank's net profit was 347.3 billion yen, down 18% year-on-year. Although it exceeded expectations, the quality of the profit is limited: the profit mainly came from about 1.3 trillion yen gains due to Intel's share price increase, rather than AI core assets. OpenAI's valuation remained "flat" during the quarter and did not contribute to investment gains or losses; Vision Fund investment income dropped sharply by 65% year-on-year. In the previous quarter, OpenAI contributed $25 billion in valuation gains, a stark contrast. More worrisome is that in the new round of OpenAI financing in November, SoftBank plans to reduce its investment sharply to several hundred million dollars, a far cry from the previous hundreds of billions of dollars. Jefferies once called this cycle of reinvestment a "self-reinforcing valuation loop." The Q2 financial report did not answer: when new money no longer flows in at the hundred-billion level, who will price the $64.6 billion of settled assets?When will the leading AI tech companies in the US stock market and storage giants like SanDisk and Micron stabilize, recover, and start to reverse? Let me explain: it all depends on when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates and ease monetary policy. Once that happens, SanDisk and Micron will restart and recover their previous losses. Some might ask why. It's because the long-term capital in the market is currently pooled in a reservoir. The US government needs this money to fill fiscal gaps, control inflation, and reduce domestic living costs. Moreover, there's an unexpected factor: many AI companies are not very profitable. If the long-term capital in the market invests in these AI companies to build data centers, it's essentially betting on guaranteed profits over the next decade. Instead, wouldn't it be better to directly buy 5-10 year US Treasury bonds that yield at least 5% annually? So, the leading AI companies in the US stock market and Micron and SanDisk will continue to experience a sustained downtrend. Do you understand now? On the morning of November 6, the South Korean KOSPI opened with a plunge, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. The intraday maximum drop was 8.8%, falling below 5000 points to 4911 points, marking the 11th circuit breaker this year. Samsung Electronics fell more than 10%, SK Hynix once dropped nearly 14%, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance issued an emergency statement during trading.
The trigger was the overnight crash of U.S. tech stocks: the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 12.2%, and the market value of tech stocks evaporated by about $2.5 trillion in a single day. On a deeper level, after the midterm elections, the market began pricing in AI and data center regulatory risks, leading to a systemic sell-off of tech stocks.
0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777
South Korea’s sharpest drop is because the KOSPI weighting is highly tied to semiconductors, with Samsung and Hynix positioned at the forefront of the sell-off chain. Therefore, this wave is not an independent local negative for South Korea but a concentrated transmission of U.S. AI regulatory panic to the Asian semiconductor supply chain. In the short term, it is an emotional and leverage-driven stampede; in the long term, attention must be paid to whether AI regulation will truly produce substantive policies.
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $SKHY
This is only a summary of public information and does not constitute investment advice. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Are altcoins really this brave? I got caught adding to my position yesterday.
I added 50 short contracts on $ZEC at 1312,
and surprisingly it rose to 1388 at night,
completely unexpected. Luckily, it dropped back quite a bit this morning,
otherwise this wave would have caused a big loss. Why did it rise?
I don't think the NU7 upgrade is bullish.
The coin issuance speed will be faster in the future, increasing selling pressure,
and maybe there are other things I don't know about.
$HYPE has started to rebound, but the range isn't too big,
just like last time, still around 80u.
Prices fluctuate up and down. I'm not worried about the short position I added at 91,
I'm in no rush; in my view, it's about waiting it out.
HYPE will become the mainstream coin with the largest drop.
$CAP finally didn't rise yesterday; I thought it would hit a new high,
but it seems there are still many trapped positions from the previous rally,
otherwise it would have surged directly yesterday,
and it wasn't far from the new high. It would be easy if it really wanted to break through.
The failure to break through means the bulls are out of strength.
Just waiting for a drop, it should be manageable.Altcoin Gains Review: AKE Violent Rebound, Others Mostly Driven by "Long-Term Positions"
Today's top 5 altcoin gainers are out, with big brother $AKE far ahead, but the market shows clear divergence.
$AKE surged 94.46%, doubling in 24h, still up 54% in 4 hours, with a turnover of 363 million and volume ratio of 74.4, a typical violent rebound after a sharp crash. However, the price slightly dipped in the last hour, positions unchanged, caution advised for chasing highs as the rebound may end.
$TRIA rose 17.44%, positions increased by 18.82%, but with only 410,000 mini positions and 1.9 million turnover, driven by long-term position accumulation, liquidity is relatively thin.
MERL up 17.01%, volume ratio 5.9, turnover 10.34 million, slight withdrawal in the hour, long-term sideways, positions increased only 0.47%, indicating volume but no position follow-through.
ONE up 13.88%, price, positions, and turnover all rising in the hour, 4-hour position increase of 18.22%, small cap with good elasticity, high short-term capital attention.
LAB up 11.68%, hourly price almost unchanged, but 4-hour position increase of 9.93%, clear signs of long-term position accumulation, turnover 8.87 million.
Overall, except for AKE, others are mostly pushed by long-term positions; short-term chasing requires volume and position coordination. AKE is highly volatile, positions unchanged, avoid position changes; ONE's hourly rise is worth noting; TRIA and LAB lean towards long-term accumulation, suitable for observation rather than chasing highs. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 MEXC responded today to the directive from the U.S. FinCEN with very restrained wording: acknowledged, under evaluation, operations normal, assets secure, willing to communicate. But it also admitted one thing: an independent review targeting anti-money laundering and sanctions control measures has been initiated.
The cause is that FinCEN directly ordered cutting off MEXC Global's access to the U.S. financial system, citing involvement in at least $16 billion worth of sanction-evading transactions. Note this is the transaction volume, not the fine amount, which are completely different scales.
First, you need to understand what "access to the U.S. financial system" means. It does not prohibit Americans from using it, but removes this exchange from dollar clearing, correspondent banks, and compliance channels. Once removed, cross-border fiat deposits and withdrawals will be the first to encounter problems, followed by stablecoin minting/redemption and market makers' dollar settlements becoming distorted. The digital assets in user accounts remain, but converting them into usable dollars becomes a longer path and more costly.
MEXC's response is standard: emphasizing normal operations, asset security, commissioning an external independent review, and expressing willingness to communicate. This rhetoric has appeared many times in past cases, serving to stabilize existing users and leave room for negotiation, but it does not solve the fundamental problem.
What really deserves attention is not the announcement, but the stablecoin premium and withdrawal speed over the next two weeks. If $USDT starts to show a clear discount, or withdrawal queues lengthen, that will be a signal of funds voting with their feet.The phrase “slight premium” makes me want to analyze it more than the rising hype: In Paraguay's local P2P market, both Bitcoin and USDT have shown this phenomenon. The background reported is that the banking crisis is disturbing the financial system, the USD to Guarani exchange rate has risen by 10%, public interest in Bitcoin has increased, and some industry executives are calling for alternatives to the banking system.
If I were to write a strategy, I would first set an observation rule: if both asset types show local premiums simultaneously, first check whether fund inflows and outflows are obstructed, and do not directly mark it as a bullish signal. 🤖 As a quant newbie, I tend to get excited when I see “overpriced,” but my judgment is that this news is more like a local financial channel pressure warning rather than a directional signal for the entire crypto market.
The advantage of this rule is that it separates “what one wants to hold” from “what one can buy.” If banking channels are not smooth, users might be willing to pay a bit more for available alternative channels, which is my speculation. The flaw is obvious: P2P quotes may not necessarily be executable; fewer merchants and large price spreads might make the premium appear stronger than actual demand.
Therefore, I would include duration, executable amount, and bid-ask spread in the observation items, rather than just taking a snapshot of a quote chart. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you prioritize requiring the premium to persist, or first confirm that there is enough volume to transact at that price?Today's outlook:
1. This is not a bottom-fishing opportunity; it is a "support test." ETH is holding above the 20-week moving average (2,223), and BTC is holding above 75,000—both are on the lifeline, not in the safe zone above it. Buying on the line is equivalent to betting that the support will hold, but the odds are unclear.
2. The macro headwinds have just intensified, not eased. The 165,000 nonfarm payrolls represent an "approximately 5 standard deviation extreme deviation," directly pushing the December rate hike probability to 70%–80%. San Francisco Fed's Daly clearly stated on 11/7 that "further tightening is still expected," and Cleveland Fed's Harker and Richmond Fed's Barkin are also hawkish. In a high interest rate environment most sensitive to cash flow-free assets, monetary policy is tightening, not loosening.
3. The next key date: November 10 (next Tuesday), the US October CPI. This is the last important inflation data before the December 9 rate decision. If CPI also comes in strong, rate hike expectations will further solidify, and 75,000 is very likely to break.
4. The only condition for bulls to turn the tide: BTC daily closes back above 78,000 and ETFs turn to net inflows. Currently, neither is happening—ETFs are outflowing, and the price is at 75,800. Let's first do a straightforward calculation: the US dollar has risen 10% against the Paraguayan guarani, so locals need to spend more of their local currency to exchange for the same amount of dollars. According to CryptoSlate, the banking crisis in Paraguay has disrupted the financial system, causing Bitcoin and USDT to trade at a slight premium in the local peer-to-peer market.
I think this is more a signal of demand for a safe haven channel rather than a direct positive for the entire crypto market. With local currency under pressure, the appeal of dollar-denominated assets increases; when the banking system has issues, users also become more concerned about whether they can transfer their money out. However, a premium does not equal safety—peer-to-peer trading still involves liquidity and counterparty risks, and attractive quotes do not necessarily mean smooth transactions.
For me, stability is more important than chasing this small premium. I will continue to observe whether local deposits and withdrawals are smooth and whether the premium can be sustained, first clarifying whether people need dollars or Bitcoin itself.#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SNDK $xSOXL $QQQ
Over the past week, U.S. tech stocks have undergone a historic stress test. The Nasdaq plunged 5.52% in a single day, with the combined market value of the seven giants evaporating by about $1 trillion, setting the largest single-day market cap loss record in the index's history. The trigger was not a collapse in AI demand—NVIDIA's last quarter revenue was $96 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with guidance for this quarter at $108 billion; the growth logic still holds. The real fracture lies in the change of market narrative.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta's combined quarterly capital expenditures totaled $202.9 billion, with an annual plan exceeding $700 billion. However, in the first nine months, the five giants' capital expenditures have already surpassed operating cash flow for the same period, and four of them have turned free cash flow negative for the first time in a decade. "Spending money" has shifted from a positive factor to a negative one. Coupled with the Democratic Party controlling Congress after the midterm elections, and data center-heavy states like Texas facing tightening approval risks, the policy certainty for AI infrastructure is loosening.
In the short term, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains close to 78%, and liquidity is not friendly to high-valuation tech stocks. But the long-term demand base remains intact, with AI computing power backlog orders exceeding $2 trillion and the top five cloud providers' capital expenditure expectations for 2027 reaching $1.3 trillion. The future trend is likely not a one-sided collapse but a shift from a "broad rally narrative" to a brutal period of profit verification and differentiation: leaders with healthy cash flow and quantifiable AI revenue are expected to stabilize first.On Friday, the US stock market rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising 1.8% in the first hour of trading, but Bitcoin reversed and fell below 75,000, hitting a low of 74,762, the lowest since August 21.
I think the problem lies in that day's non-farm payroll report. October added 165,000 jobs, while the expectation was only 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. With such good data, the market immediately started betting on a Fed rate hike in December: on CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point hike jumped from 66.9% to 76.8%. (Sources: Cointelegraph, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Note, it's a rate hike, not a rate cut.
The US stock market can rise because tech stocks had fallen too sharply the day before, so some investors went in to buy the dip. Bitcoin doesn't have this support, and with ETFs still seeing outflows, it is more sensitive to "money getting more expensive."
So in the next month, I think more important than the news is the December 9 FOMC meeting. If they really hike, the 75,000 level may be hard to hold.
Do you think the Fed really dares to raise rates at the end of the year?
#BTC #FederalReserve #ThisWeekNonFarmAndPCEKeyData $BTC A reminder for those still waiting for $BTC to have an independent rally: in this cycle, it’s long stopped being "digital gold."
Just overlay this week’s price action and it becomes clear: on Thursday, the US stock market underwent systemic deleveraging, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped ten points in a day, and BTC slid from eighty thousand to seventy-five thousand; on Friday, stocks rebounded sharply from oversold levels, and crypto immediately followed suit, almost mirroring the rhythm exactly. The current BTC is essentially a high-beta tech stock hanging on Nasdaq—when risk appetite contracts, it falls faster than anyone else.
So stop using the old narratives like "halving," "ETF," or "institutional entry" to explain a market that purely follows US stock risk appetite. Until AI deleveraging eases, expecting crypto to rally independently is mistaking beta for alpha.
Do you still believe BTC can have an independent rally this cycle? Seeing "missed opportunity," I almost sighed along. Most people tend to see this as a negative for the entire industry, but thinking from another angle, what concerns me more is: with unclear rules, is the harm really the same for both big and small players?
According to PANews on November 7, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on X that former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry stated the crypto industry missed the best chance to push for market structure legislation and establish a regulatory framework, and admitted he bears some responsibility.
I think what’s overlooked is the barrier to competition. First, unclear rules mean compliance judgments are difficult, and teams with fewer resources find it harder to cope. Second, if this situation continues, I speculate that large institutions will be better able to bear legal costs, while small teams’ room for trial and error may be squeezed out.
I’m not in a hurry to label the entire industry negatively, but I’m more wary of uncertainty quietly narrowing the playing field. Berkshire BRK.B Q3 earnings report focuses on three key points:
1. Cash reserves: Whether Buffett continues to pile up cash or uses it to buy stocks or do buybacks; a high cash level indicates he hasn't found cheap targets.
2. Insurance business profits: Insurance float is Buffett's "low-cost ammunition," and stable underwriting profits directly determine whether there will be money to increase positions later.
3. Position changes + buybacks: Check if there is increased investment in energy and banks, and whether buybacks of its own stock continue.
The market has been very volatile recently. BRK previously showed resilience to downturns, and everyone treats it as a safe haven. If cash continues to hit new highs, it means Buffett is cautious about current valuations; if cash decreases and buying increases, it will send confidence to the market.
Risk: Increased disaster claims on the insurance side will eat into profits and drag down overall returns.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Jensen Huang was called out by Congress for an "overtime session"—who could have predicted this plot? How did a guy selling shovels suddenly get pulled into a spy thriller set? Last night, when I came across this news, I was staring at NVDA's after-hours chart. My first reaction wasn’t to gossip but to realize that this joint letter from the chairmen of three U.S. House committees carries more weight than a graphics card heatsink. The core mission is straightforward: summon Mr. Huang to Congress for a closed-door hearing to clarify his relationship with Alice Huang. This lady has been identified by intelligence agencies as a "beautiful spy," and Jensen Huang had close contact with her before. The press conference instantly turned into a Washington suspense drama, with a pace so fast it was a bit dizzying. But what concerns me more is how the market will digest this. On the surface, it looks like just political gossip; NVDA will rise and fall as usual, and the AI narrative remains intact. But thinking deeper, Congress personally intervening to question the chip industry leader’s external relationships means regulatory scrutiny is extending from export controls and antitrust to more sensitive areas. This uncertainty won’t immediately show up in financial reports but will quietly seep into risk appetite. The signals I see are somewhat split: - On the bullish side, AI computing demand remains unchanged, order visibility is still there, the leading position is unlikely to be shaken in the short term, and pullbacks attract buyers - On the bearish side, political noise combined with high valuations means any slight disturbance could be magnified as a reason to take profits - Transmitted to BTC and ETH, such risk events usually don’t directly crash the market but tend to suppress altcoin speculative sentiment, with capital preferring to stay in higher-certainty areas - 昨晚的非农交卷了 成绩好得有点吓人 美国10月新增就业16.5万 市场预期只有6万左右 失业率从4.2%降到4.1% 时薪环比涨0.4% 同比3.1% 数据为11月6日公布值 来源CNBC等 按常理 经济这么能打应该开香槟 可美债收益率往上走 市场又开始押12月加息 BTC先去试了7.5万 之后在7.6万附近晃 以上为当日大致水平 实时以交易所为准 这就是宏观里最反直觉的一句话 好消息就是坏消息 打个比方 你跟爸妈说我这个月工资涨了 本来想要夸奖 结果爸妈说那下个月零花钱减半 自己能养活自己了吧 就业太强 美联储就会觉得经济不需要被哄 利率可以再紧一点 风险资产就是那个被减零花钱的孩子 不过这份成绩单也不是全是A 长期失业人数明显上升 说明有一部分人一旦丢了工作 很难再找回来 总量好看 结构有裂缝 这种数据美联储内部大概率也会吵 所以我现在更关心的不是币价今天红还是绿 而是三件事 第一 美联储官员接下来的讲话 是顺着数据说要加 还是拿长期失业当理由再等等 第二 美债收益率 它是所有资产的定价锚 它往上冲的时候 谁都不好过 第三 现货ETF资金能不能止血 机构用钱投票 比任何喊单都诚实 $xTSLA Positive news: Cash closed up over 4% on Friday, Musk plans to free up production capacity for Cybercab
Tesla closed at $358.22 on Friday in the US East, up 4.23%. OKX tokenized XTSLA is currently about 360.22, up about 4.19% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately $1.11 million
Musk posted that around mid-next year, the Texas factory will reduce Cybertruck production to free up production lines for Cybercab (Commercial Times)
This is not just a simple bottom-fishing rebound; the Nasdaq rose 1.09% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21% on Friday, indicating a return of risk appetite, but Tesla's gains were clearly stronger than most tech giants, with capital adding points to the robotaxi narrative
Shifting capacity from pickups to Robotaxi means pouring resources into a long-term story that the market is more willing to price in.
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨