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$APR looks weak this week. The cliff unlocking on October 23 is only 6 days away, with a scale close to 47% of the already unlocked circulating supply, and the supply pressure is right in front of us. We backtested similar large unlock events; about three-quarters of them underperformed the market in the week before unlocking, with pressure concentrated in the last few days. After the unlocking day, there is no fixed direction. So the focus should be on the next few trading days. Within 24 hours, it once surged to 0.04856 but was pushed back. There were 103 long positions liquidated and only 24 short positions, indicating that those chasing the rally are repeatedly shaken out. Trading is thin, with open interest only at $10 million, and the support is weak. If some holders sell early, the price is likely to slide down. RSI at 30 looks low, but with unlocking imminent, the weak zone can last a long time. It will continue to be weak until the 23rd; first, watch if 0.0435 can hold. The condition for a bullish reversal is a daily close above 0.04856 and holding for two days, which would indicate someone is willing to take the unlocking chips early, invalidating the bearish outlook.【Gold and silver both plummeted, can central bank gold buying and silver shortages still save them?】
Gold $XAU has retraced about 27% from the high of $5608, while silver $XAG fared worse, dropping from $121 to $56, a decline of more than half. The story of tight supply and central bank gold purchases remains, yet prices still plunged. Those chasing highs should now understand what it means when fundamentals make sense but positions can't hold.
The Silver Institute expects a silver supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of shortage; in Q2, global central banks net bought 288.9 tons of gold, a 62% year-on-year increase. It sounds solid, but gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 45 tons in the same period, indicating that central bank buying doesn't mean all funds are buying.
The core of this correction is that the market is starting to recalculate the costs of interest rates, the dollar, and crowded positions. Physical shortages provide medium- to long-term support, not daily bid orders; silver also has industrial demand, so if the economy weakens, the shortage story may be discounted.
For now, don't rush to bottom-fish just because prices have fallen a lot, nor assume the precious metals bull market is over. First, watch if gold prices can hold around $4000 and if ETF funds flow back in. The supply-demand logic hasn't broken, but prices still need real money to catch them.Watching the market until 2 a.m., I suddenly realized that the way it’s falling now is different from before. Have you noticed that even the panic in this round of decline has become very restrained? Compared to the liquidation on October 10, 2025, the market’s backbone has actually changed. Back then, retail leverage dominated marginal pricing, and any slight disturbance triggered a chain stampede. Now ETF funds have become the new marginal buyers, backed by compliance constraints and risk control processes; they won’t dump the market out of fear like retail investors. So the intuitive feeling is that the downside is being supported, and the drop isn’t as out of control. But there’s an easily misunderstood point here: resilience to decline does not equal safety. I’m watching the derivatives structure closely; ETF creations and redemptions are centralized, so once there’s a sustained net outflow, the price impact is actually more sudden and blunt. Retail investors exit slowly, institutions leave as soon as the door opens. Volatility won’t disappear just because the money becomes "smarter"—it just shifts from high-frequency stampedes to low-frequency heavy blows. This is the core reason I’ve recently adjusted my position timing, no longer catching falls based on past panic patterns but waiting for fund flow data confirmation before acting. The second signal is even more worrisome. Money is gathering into BTC and ETH, and the depth of altcoin order books is visibly thinning. This isn’t ordinary sector rotation; it’s a contraction of pricing power. Tokens like ZEC occasionally have narrative-driven spikes but lack sustained buying support, so chasing them often leads to getting stuck. I’m now much stricter with my altcoin position discipline than before—better to miss out than get trapped in thin liquidity. The bullish path is clear: as long as the ETF channel maintains net inflows, B 炸裂信号！美股中位数狂泻15%，AI遮羞布快撑不住了，币圈小心补跌一刀！
别只盯着BTC横盘，真正的雷在美股！
10月17日美债收益率、美元、油价三线走高，金融条件“隐形加息”。标普500中位数已较52周高点回撤15%，等权重指数半年落后市值加权指数约6%，股权风险溢价跌破零，全靠AI巨头撑指数。
个人观点：这不是普通回调，是实际利率抬升对风险资产的全面估值压缩。比特币现在就是高贝塔科技股，别幻想独立行情。
对市场影响：若大型科技股补跌，BTC难独善其身；若普通股反弹，才是风险偏好修复。玩家别急抄底，盯10年期美债收益率是否见顶、科技股下跌时BTC是否跟跌；同跌=去杠杆未完。
8.2万若失守，下一站在哪？关注点点，下期拆链上杠杆地图。 $SNDK $AAPL $NVDA #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In this conversation between Jin Ming and Sun Yuchen, several points are worth serious study.
He is concerned about the impact of AI and quantum computing on Bitcoin's security system.
But he hasn't sold his core Bitcoin holdings.
He said he had previously reduced 80%–90% of his ETH position.
At the same time, he remains cautious about the short-term valuations of AI hardware sectors such as the Nasdaq, storage, and optical modules.
Interestingly, the direction he truly favors is shifting from computing power hardware to AI applications.
The most important thing to consider here is not who will rise or fall.
Rather, it is whether the capital market will reallocate valuations after the technological revolution enters different stages.
In recent years, those who could provide more computing power easily gained a premium.
In the future, if computing power supply gradually improves, companies that can truly turn AI into sustained revenue may become the focus of the next round of competition.
However, I also disagree with directly deducing that the long-term threat of quantum computing will inevitably cause a security crisis for Bitcoin within the next year or two.
The existence of technical risks does not mean the timing is certain.
The biggest fear in investing is not missing an opportunity.
It is mistaking a long-term trend worth studying for a trading signal that will materialize tomorrow. The market this weekend looks really painful, but what's scarier than the drop is retail investors frantically bottom-fishing while the main players are withdrawing funds overnight and running away.
Today, focus on these three, with all the data laid out clearly:
What shocks me the most is $SUI, currently priced at 1.0073, just stuck at the 1-dollar integer threshold. The long-short ratio has actually surged to 2.71; retail investors all think 1 dollar is a solid bottom and are rushing in desperately, but if you look at the position volume, it has directly dropped from over 40 million a few days ago to 32 million. What does this indicate? Retail investors are taking the bags while the main players are retreating. Once it breaks below 1 dollar, all these bottom-fishers become fuel.
Next, look at $HYPE, currently at 79.98, having failed to hold the 80 mark, with the daily chart showing a steady decline from 97. The long-short ratio is 2.03; bulls are still stubbornly holding on, but the funding rate is at the floor, with no big money paying interest to the bulls. This kind of grinding decline means as long as the bulls don't die, the downtrend won't stop.
Finally, $ZEC has plunged 5.4% today, currently at 1161. It had risen too much earlier, and profit-taking is happening en masse. The long-short ratio has fallen back to 1.11, funding rates are negative, and the bears are starting to take control.
My view is simple: liquidity is already poor over the weekend, so don't be the one catching the falling knife. I won't touch any of these three. I'll wait for SUI to break below 1 dollar and wash out the market, or for HYPE to completely shrink in volume and stabilize before considering.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? Three rate boards spread out, three ways of life. BTC all have positive rates, from 0.0059% to 0.0079%—the bulls are obediently paying rent, the sentiment looks calm, but actually it's the breath left after 69% of long positions were just liquidated: currently, the bias is 51.9% bearish, but the positive rate indicates the bulls are not dead yet, just taking hits quietly. Negative values appear in ETH rates, as low as -0.0001%, then suddenly jumping to 0.0091% on the right side, fierce local battles raising short costs quietly; after a two-way squeeze, the long-short ratio is slightly bullish at 51.5%, this slight negative rate is evidence of a short-term tug-of-war. SOL is the most passive, rates close to zero, even with a slight negative of -0.0005%, leverage is pressed to extremely low; long-short ratio is 50:50, after a round of liquidations, near-zero rates mean no one is betting on direction. Rates don't lie: one is taking hits quietly, one is biting and tugging, one is just lying flat.$XAU At this point, my only regret is not going all in with 100x leverage!!!
The first target price has been perfectly reached, but this is far from over.
Currently, the mainstream SOL top three are all showing a shakeout pattern up and down, which actually resembles a previous market situation. Those who have experienced it know that after a period of continuous up and down shakeouts, there is suddenly a sharp surge upward. Bitcoin’s rise to 80,000 was exactly like this, crossing from the 60,000 range directly into the 80,000 range and holding steady.
But gold is more stable; it hasn’t experienced large fluctuations in shakeouts. It has a slow upward trend, and the 4080 monthly line is a strong support level that is hard to break no matter how negative the news is. For those seeking stability, going long on gold is the best choice. Stop losses should be controlled below 4080. Holding long term is no problem. The next target is around 4250-4230.
[The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice]
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? 【CPI just exploded, and PPI dealt another blow, how can $BTC still rise?】
The US September PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 5.3%; the monthly increase was 1.3%, the largest since March 2022. The day before, CPI had already risen to 3.7%, clearly the inflation fire is not out yet.
Energy prices surged 10.8% in a single month, gasoline rose 20.3%, oil prices are a major driver. But excluding food, energy, and trade services, the related PPI still rose 5% year-on-year. You can't blame it all on oil; cost pressures are already showing signs of spreading.
With inflation uncontrollable, expectations for rate cuts are easily discounted, the dollar and interest rates may continue to suppress BTC, ETH, and high-valuation altcoins. Currently, the US stock market is also facing an AI stock sell-off, oil prices remain high, risk assets are not so easy to catch a break.
Don't rush to bottom-fish just because of the drop; first see if oil prices fall back and if long-term bond yields can stabilize. If inflation continues to heat up, I will be more cautious about a rebound; if energy prices cool down and yields fall back, then there is reason to be bullish again. Don't just focus on the candlestick chart, the macro knife is still hanging overhead.It's not that I'm stubborn, it's that this market really leaves no room for the bulls
$ETH has dropped from 2807 to 2325, I took profit on my short at 2509, now I'm waiting for a suitable point to enter a second short
Those in the comments who keep shouting "bulls will quickly return" have been quiet these past two days.
I don't like kicking someone when they're down, but those who shorted with me at the high positions probably aren't panicking now.
Why is it falling?
Because the smart money has already left.
#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 Spot ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with $542 million net outflow last week, the largest since January. BlackRock's ETHA alone accounted for the majority. Institutions are withdrawing, not retail investors selling off.
CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike by year-end is 96%, and rate cuts are off the table. High interest rates are suppressing, and high valuation assets are the first to get hit.
This is not a technical correction, it's liquidity running away.
I haven't opened a short yet. If it dares to rebound to 2450-2480, I'll add to my position. The first target is 2380, if broken then directly 2300.
Don't open a position before the right point, don't be itchy-handed, keep a long-term vision, only those who survive have the right to talk about taking profits.
If you disagree, come debate in the comments.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Brothers, the US PPI exploded again, soaring to 6.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, marking the largest increase since March 2022.
As soon as this data came out, the market's first reaction was: the Federal Reserve will turn hawkish again, and money will become more expensive. On the charts, BTC was indeed dragged along by this rhythm, dipping to around 79,800 at one point during the session, but last night the lowest still held above $80,000, indicating that the bulls' support at this level remains and there is no effective breakdown.
What does this mean for mainstream coins?
It's simple — expectations of liquidity tightening have returned. BTC, ETH, SOL, these mainstreams, like tech stocks, are risk assets most sensitive to liquidity. When interest rates rise, cheap money disappears, and leveraged longs are the first to be liquidated. Yesterday, nearly $1 billion was liquidated across the network, 90% of which were longs.
But is the trend broken? No.
Macro is the wind, the market is the wave. When the wind is strong, the waves shake, but the direction of the waves depends on key levels. BTC is now grinding repeatedly around 80,000; this level is the cost zone for large ETF holders. If it holds, there is hope; if it doesn't, it will look down to 78,000. ETH is oscillating around 2,400, SOL around 105, both waiting for a directional choice.
My trading idea: be cautious with mainstreams, but don't panic.
$BTC BTC: Hold 80,000, look up to 84,000; break below 78,000, risk increases. $ETH: 2,400 is short-term support, break below to look at 2,300. $SOL: 100 is a psychological barrier, if it doesn't break, there is still a chance! These three have taken three completely different paths this week; no one should confine the others to their own framework.
$ZEC around 1150, 24h -5.7%. The day before it surged to 1240, bounced up from 1100 but was smashed back down. On the 7th, it fluctuated between 1086 and 1340 with almost zero net change. It has risen 420% over the year, but this week is purely leveraged speculation, not a trend. The real signal is on October 20: after passing the testnet evaluation, the mainnet activation NU7 was set for 11/5. Resistance is between 1242 and 1264.
$HYPE around 80, -2.2%, down 6% on the 7th. The aid fund has repurchased 48 million tokens at a cost of $28, which is real financial backing. But November 6 is the team’s unlock date, with only 22% circulating. Historical patterns are consistent: the week before unlock averages a 5.5% rise, and it drops 3.3% on the third day after unlock. 78 is the short-term bottom.
$OKB at 117.4, +0.5%, up 4.6% over 30 days, the only positive among the three. The gas demand and deflationary burn from X Layer support it; total supply is only 21 million tokens, but it is still -48.6% from its all-time high of 228.7.
ZEC bets on upgrade, HYPE bets on unlock rhythm, OKB bets on no one selling.USDC is being prepared for entry into new markets. On October 16, the head of Circle told Reuters about plans to expand into approximately 40 countries. For the crypto market, this potentially means more channels for money inflow, but not yet a new capital influx. How to check the effect? Compare USDC issuance and redemption over a week, then the order book depth in the relevant trading pair. Even an increase in issuance may serve payments rather than BTC purchases. The expansion plan is a reason to monitor flows, not a ready signal.$NEAR: Cycle In-Depth Commentary
Current price is 5.05, having just pulled back about 17% from the 6.06 high. On the 4-hour chart, it oscillates near EMA25/66, RSI has returned to 46, indicating a short-term overbought condition followed by consolidation. On the weekly chart, it just started from the 0.84 bottom, reaching a high near the previous 9.02 peak. The price now stands above all weekly moving averages, with a MACD golden cross, marking the initial phase of the main upward wave.
Capital flow: Open interest has steadily increased from the low in early October to 13.94 million contracts. Funding rates have just turned positive, and the retail long-short ratio is relatively high. However, the spot market has seen a net outflow of nearly 40 million over 7 days, indicating this rally is mainly driven by contract funds, with large spot investors yet to enter on a large scale.
From a cycle perspective:
NEAR’s last bull market peak was over 9, and the lowest point in this bear market was 0.84, a 90% drop. It has now risen from 0.84 to over 6, a 7x rebound, but there is still room before the previous high of 9. NEAR remains below its previous peak, representing a secondary public chain catching-up rally.
Interpretation:
This short-term surge from just over 2 to 6 was rapid, so a pullback for digestion is normal; chasing highs has a low risk-reward ratio. But on the weekly level, this is the start of a new main upward wave, not a pulse rally. The pattern for secondary public chains is that the leader rises first, followed by a reactive catch-up after capital flows out from the top, which then creates catch-up elasticity. Medium to long-term holders need not rush; hold through the cycle. Pullbacks are opportunities to add positions with profits.
Just a personal view; trading is ultimately self-reliant.
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000? $XRP
XRP has dropped more than 2%, why can't the payment narrative directly act as support?
Spot price fell about 2.39% in 24 hours, ranging from 1.2893 to 1.3534, with the price positioned at about 25% of the range.
Growth in settlement business needs to translate into token demand, requiring a clear transmission mechanism. Price decline does not equal business failure, but not all pullbacks can be explained by business vision, nor can partnership headlines be directly counted as income for token holders.
If the upper boundary is reclaimed and held after turnover, short-term support will improve; if the lower boundary continues to be lost, the weak structure should be respected first. A true fundamental revaluation requires verifiable sustained usage.$ETH 的2400美元，不只是价格关口
BTC跌破8万美元后迅速收回82000美元附近，但ETH的处境更值得细看。价格一度下探2400美元附近，同时资金面出现三重压力：现货ETF连续净流出，10月14日约1.295亿美元、15日约6030万美元；过去三周交易所ETH储备增加约29万枚，按2400美元估算约6.96亿美元；杠杆端24小时清算约2.83亿美元，且未平仓合约美元值下降约11%，ETH数量却未同步明显减少，说明部分风险尚未充分释放。
这并不意味着ETH必然继续下跌，但反弹质量要看资金是否配合。接下来三个信号最关键：2400美元能否企稳；ETF净流出能否止住；交易所储备是否继续上升。若价格反弹而ETF仍失血、储备继续增加，反弹持续性存疑；只有流出放缓、现货买盘改善，ETH才有更可靠的上涨基础。
ETH缺的不是长期叙事，而是短期承接抛压的资金。跌下来不等于便宜，关键是跌下来后有没有资金愿意持续买入。$BTC 刚打完8万美元保卫战，ETH的2400美元，可能成为下一场多空争夺焦点。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 This weekend, stop using Friday's ETF funds to guarantee Saturday's market.
Farside records a net outflow of $82.4 million from the US BTC spot ETF on October 16. After entering the weekend, the ETF secondary market's regular trading is closed, but crypto spot trading continues. The timing on both sides is different, so Friday's data cannot explain the sudden buying and selling over the weekend.
At this time, even if you see a large address buying, you cannot casually infer that "institutional funds are all absorbing." One participant willing to buy means other sellers might be willing to sell at the same price. What needs to be observed is whether the price can stabilize after the purchase and whether there is continuous trading afterward.
I think the easiest misjudgment on weekends is to prematurely declare a reversal of fund sentiment based on a small rebound. When used to watching ETF inflows and outflows regularly, it's easy to treat them as real-time directional signals. But fund statistics have their own update rhythm; actual transactions do not wait for reports.
Weekend price changes can provide clues, but don't prematurely speak for next week's buyers. Whether the price can recover after a pullback, and whether ETF creations and redemptions support that recovery after the US stock market reopens, all need continued observation. Especially, don't force yourself to endure volatility you originally didn't want just because of a phrase like "whales are absorbing." Whether $80,000 can hold, I currently don't have enough evidence to give a definite answer.
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000? The same ETF data shows that the 5-day metric indicates a "narrowing outflow," while the single-day metric shows an "expanding outflow." Both conclusions are correct; the issue is that they are answering different questions. First, let's talk about the news. Using today's data as an example: the US spot ETF has a 5-day cumulative net outflow of $428.8 million (the previous period was $696.8 million, a clear narrowing), while the latest single-day net outflow is $263.2 million; the 10-day cumulative net outflow is $566.9 million. During the same period, BTC is priced at $82,116.6, with a 24-hour change of -0.36%, nearly a week change of -0.91%, and a 20-day range from $79,775.1 to $87,238.3; the Fear and Greed Index rose from 53 to 63; the US Dollar Index is 102.08, gold is 4,172.7, and the S&P 500 is 7,744.06. Next, let's look at the capital impact. The three metrics correspond to three different questions: the 5-day total answers "direction" (whether the funds are net outflow or net inflow this week), the single-day data answers "speed" (whether the outflow is accelerating or decelerating), and the 10-day data answers "trend" (whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a medium-term shift). Many seemingly contradictory views are actually just using different metrics to answer the same question. Writing the metric before the conclusion can avoid most misjudgments. Regarding BTC: according to today's metrics, the "direction" is still net outflow, the "speed" has worsened, and the "trend" is still outflow. In other words, the capital situation has not improved; only the daily intensity of outflow is lower than the previous week. Price rebounds under this condition usually lack sustainability unless the single-day metric continuously Comprehensive headline # Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus. The first half "growth may slow" has already been fully priced in by the stock price: closed at $70.53 on October 16, down 2.86% in one day, about 43.5% retracement from the 52-week high of $124.86, only 8.4% above the low of $65.08; after the Q2 earnings report, it once plunged about 9% in one day and hit the year's low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 21.5 times, pessimistic expectations are deeply factored in.
The second half "advertising becomes a new focus" is still an option: advertising accounts for only about 6% of revenue and needs continuous realization to be revalued; consensus target price is $91.39, implying about 29.6% upside, but the range is $57–135, with huge divergence. Therefore, the stock price is at a "bottom has appeared, reversal not yet": a downward biased slow decline, $65 may be repeatedly tested.
Upside depends on advertising realization; the earnings report on October 20 regarding viewing time and advertising rhythm is a short-term decision point.Brothers and sisters
The BTC derivatives market shorts are aggressively increasing their positions, but this signal does not necessarily mean the market will directly decline!
BTC perpetual funding rates have rapidly dropped, reaching deep negative territory not seen since June this year.
Behind the data is the current contract market's short-selling willingness far exceeding the longs.
An interesting divergence phenomenon: the price of Bitcoin has rebounded from the low and risen, but the funding rate has dropped to an extremely low negative value. The price goes up, yet a large number of traders continue to build short positions. This contrast deserves close attention.
Once short positions accumulate excessively, as long as the coin price continues to rise, it will trigger a chain reaction: shorts hit stop losses, are passively bought back to close positions, further pushing up the price, causing more shorts to be forcibly liquidated, which is commonly called a short squeeze.
But it should be viewed rationally; a deep negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze will occur. Arbitrage operations and hedging also cause such data changes.
Key points to observe going forward: if BTC continues to strengthen, total open interest declines, and funding rates gradually recover, it means shorts are exiting the market.
Healthy rallies do not require everyone to be bullish. Sometimes, clustered shorts can actually become a driving force for the market. Do you think these concentrated shorts entering the market will ultimately profit as they hope?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC What’s next for BTC? The bulls are quietly adding positions, and my long orders remain unchanged.
Yesterday I predicted that after the bearish news was fully absorbed, the price would rise. However, it first dropped to 79,800 before pulling back to 82,600, which felt really frustrating.
Compared to yesterday, the bullish strength is increasing:
Long position liquidations below: 1.5 billion → 2 billion
Short position liquidations above: 2.5 billion → 1.2 billion
Keep an eye on these prices:
81,500: First dense zone; breaking this triggers forced liquidation
80,000: Buffer thins, prone to chain liquidations
83,000: First cluster of short positions above
83,800: The fiercest squeeze breakout
Scenario analysis:
Downside: Break 81,500 → 80,000 long zone, thin buffer, chain forced liquidations
Upside: Hold above 83,000 → 83,800 → 84,500
My view: The bearish news has mostly been digested, data favors the bulls, leaning bullish. No further explanation, my longs remain.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $BTC ETH hasn't reclaimed 2500, and the longs on board are almost full
As of noon Beijing time, ETH is around 2427, with OKX 24-hour high at 2493.89 and low at 2393.33. The price hasn't even reclaimed 2500, but the contract side is heating up first.
Binance long accounts account for 74.61%, Bybit 71.82%, with funding rates on both sides at 0.005251% and 0.006156%, respectively, both still positive. This indicates most accounts are betting on a rebound, but one detail can't be ignored: this counts the number of accounts, not the position size.
Looking at active buying, Binance's buy ratio is only 50.4%, Bybit even lower than 50%. Simply put, many longs don't equal strong real capital.
Currently, ETH is stuck between two liquidation zones: long risk piled near 2397 below, short pressure near 2501 above. My judgment is clear: no chasing before a volume-backed reclaim of 2500; if it breaks below 2393 first, crowded longs may be liquidated in a round. Only after firmly standing above 2500 will I consider following.
The biggest fear for a rebound is never that no one is bullish, but that the market hasn't confirmed yet, and the seats are already full.
$ETH #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily This whale's operation is very informative: it continues to add positions while in a floating loss state, but the asset it is adding (ONDO) is precisely the one with the most concentrated fundamental risk among the three.
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📍 First, let's look at the panorama: the whale's current real profit and loss
Token Holdings Cost Price Current Price (10/17) Floating P/L
UNI 1,014,000 $8.79 $7.39 About -$1.42M
ONDO 2,455,000 $0.4662 About 0.45 Slight loss or break-even
LTC 12,400 $67.86 $63.45 About -$55K
UNI is the absolute heavy holding and also the absolute disaster zone—1,014,000 tokens at a cost of $8.91M, current price $7.49M, just this one alone has a floating loss close to $1.55M; the vast majority of the loss is contributed by UNI. The ONDO accumulation has not changed the overall profile of this address: “deep UNI lockup, slight LTC loss, slight ONDO loss.”
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🎯 The core contradiction of ONDO: the whale is buying, but the unlocking sword is hanging overhead
The whale's cost at $0.4662 is near the current price level, with almost no safety margin. ONDO's current price is repeatedly testing the 0.45 range; $0.42 is a short-term key support. If it breaks below, the next support is at $0.40, then the trendline area at 0.37. The daily RSI is about 42, MACD momentum is weakening, and technically it does not support the narrative of an "immediate reversal." When did MEME coins on SOL start becoming difficult to trade? I think there are two key points:
1. Pumpfun no longer relies on Raydium and created its own exchange. Newly launched coin pools all stay on their own DEX, trying to capture all the profits. This year, Raydium also jointly launched a launchpad, increasing the number of launch projects, making it harder for retail investors to operate.
2. Added creator fees. Previously, playing MEME basically had no taxes or fees, and the project team couldn't interfere with trading, making trading very pure. Now various trading taxes keep emerging, and after the project team sells their coins, they can still continuously collect fees, greatly diminishing the trading experience.
I really miss the atmosphere of playing MEME on SOL two years ago, when all you needed to watch were the narrative, volume, and K-line.$BTC BTC short-term holders' positions have risen to 4.08 million coins. On the market front, the Fed's rate hike expectations for October have fallen to about 17%, leading to a recovery in risk appetite. Fed Chair Powell made no prior commitments regarding October or December policies; trading prices indicate the market prefers to wait for more economic data.
However, inflation pressure remains: CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, PPI year-on-year at 6.3%. The Fed is merely postponing rate hikes, so inflation victory is not guaranteed, and the market tends to overlook the potential tightening risk in December.
For BTC, the downward trend in rate hike probability brings valuation recovery but is unlikely to generate sustained buying. If oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, or inflation expectations rebound, rate hike expectations could quickly rise again.
Going forward, the focus should not only be on the October meeting but also closely monitor December rate pricing. Near-term expectations are easing while long-term remain hawkish, so assets will continue to fluctuate. It is possible to trade on this round of expectation recovery, but positions must reserve tolerance for data reversals.
#Bitcoin #FedOctoberRateHikeProbabilityDropsToAbout17%
Main adjustments: compressed repetitive expressions, streamlined the logic of "expectation recovery — inflation risk — BTC impact — subsequent observation," and highlighted "potential December tightening risk" and "position tolerance" more prominently.$TIA's gain yesterday was quite impressive, but a one-day increase only indicates short-term capital concentration and does not mean that the long-term supply and demand have changed. Ajian does not believe that the entire modular blockchain sector has regained long-term capital. The same applies to $EIGEN; yesterday's rise seems more like a spread from meme to infrastructure assets and is not enough to be called a sector rebound. If the market truly prefers infrastructure again1. The necessity of the SpaceX and Tesla merger lies in whether the two companies can integrate to reduce the cost of orbital data centers. Whether SpaceX's orbital data center and related business model can succeed ultimately comes down to an economic calculation. Analyst Wood Mackenzie estimates that currently, building a 1GW orbital data center costs about $170 billion, more than three times that of an equivalent-scale ground data center, with satellite and launch costs accounting for about 60%. Regardless of how many advantages orbital computing has in terms of energy, land, and grid constraints, as long as the unit computing power cost is significantly higher than ground solutions in the long term, large-scale commercialization will be difficult. So the question becomes: for producing the same unit of effective computing power, when can the full lifecycle cost of orbital deployment approach or even fall below that of ground deployment? 2. The current roadmap provided by SpaceX can be summarized into three things: reducing launch costs, improving the performance-to-power ratio of chips, and turning satellites and computing equipment into large-scale industrial products through vertical integration. Tesla happens to have the other half of the capabilities that SpaceX lacks here. In November 2025, Musk mentioned Tesla's AI5 chip in a conversation with Ron Baron. AI5 is mainly aimed at autonomous driving and Optimus inference tasks, and Musk's goal at the time was to achieve two to three times the performance per watt of Nvidia chips in these tasks US Stock Real Trading 11
As of 0:00 yesterday, QQQ fell 1.56%, while I rose 0.16%. This week, the US stock market dropped 5.52%, and I gained 2.79%, outperforming the market by about 8 points. Overall, this week has been quite good.
Making money in a bear market is indeed not easy. The current market is really not suitable for being overly long. You can also refer to my position allocation: (only trading account, excluding current deposits) Eli Lilly 16.5%, Coca-Cola 16.5%, SK Hynix (short) 16.5%, S&P 33%, U33%. I even sold off TSMC, planning to buy it back when it drops to a better level. Overall, this is a very conservative approach. It's a pity about Eli Lilly and Coca-Cola because of historical reasons (you can refer to my US Stock Real Trading Issue 6 post), which caused my previous positions to be very low. I didn't plan to adjust the positions later, so these two stocks rose 10 points this week, and I missed out. I only added to the positions at 7 PM last night, missing out on a lot.
That's about it overall. Have a great weekend everyone!Bro, the direction this wave took was right, but now is the profit protection phase, not the excitement phase. Unrealized gains are not profits; only closing the position counts.
Coin Entry Price Current Price ROI Key Levels/Recommendations
BTC 81744.3 81666.49 +1.90% Just broke even, signal is more important than amount; move stop loss slightly above 81750–81850, if it breaks below 80,500, take partial profits, target 80,000
ETH 2449.21 2422.83 +21.57% Strongest position, but 2400 is only about 0.95% from current price; recommend partial profit-taking near 2400, move stop loss above entry price, then try for 2380/2350 with remaining position
DOGE 0.08131 0.08075 +13.73% Move stop loss slightly above 0.0813; take partial profits between 0.0795–0.078, don’t wait to sell all at 0.078
Total unrealized gains about 18.86U, all three positions short in the same direction with high correlation, diversification is false diversification, one rebound will cause simultaneous pullback. The three most important things to do now:
1. Move all stop losses to break-even: BTC just turned positive, easiest to get stopped out by a sudden spike; ETH/DOGE already have profits, at least push stop loss slightly above entry price.
2. Take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last bit: ETH at 2400, DOGE at 0.0795–0.078, BTC at 80,500–80,$TIA has surged crazily these past two days
It rose 23% in a single day and accumulated 83% over four weeks. Among altcoins, it is the brightest star
The actual data stored on the Celestia network hasn't kept up. On October 16, the blob size was 2.01 billion bytes, even less than 2.05 billion on the 15th
What’s really moving is leverage; $TIA futures open interest rose 55% in 24 hours, faster than the price increase
The volume forced buy-in by shorts is very small, less than $2 million per token
In other words, the buying pressure from short squeezes is limited; the main driver of the surge in open interest is new futures bets
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Altcoins now account for more than Bitcoin in open interest, reaching 41.4%
A similar crossover occurred in December 2024, after which altcoins dropped 44.3% in 90 days‼️❕
Price is running ahead of data, leverage is running ahead of price. This structure feels great when rising but turns quickly at the turning point
#TIA1. Your liquidation strategy (concise Chinese version)
ETH and SOL are both fully leveraged 50x long positions, sharing margin and compounding risk. Plan:
1. If there is a rebound, handle ETH first — it has the heaviest loss; reduce in batches near the entry price to relieve the greatest pressure first.
2. For SOL, reduce gradually when the rebound approaches the entry price.
3. If the market continues to fall unilaterally, do not stubbornly hold — prioritize closing ETH to reduce the overall long exposure of the account.
Reflection: Multiple coins in the same direction + 50x full leverage concentrates risk highly; reversals cause fast and severe drawdowns. Avoid heavy same-direction multi-coin positions in the future, lower leverage, and keep risk within a manageable range.
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2. Considering recent macro conditions: your "priority to reduce ETH" logic is supported in the current environment, but pay attention to timing
September CPI year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), PPI year-on-year 6.3% (far exceeding expectations, highest since December 2022), core CPI month-on-month steady at 0.3% for two consecutive months. The probability of a rate hike before year-end once approached 90%; after CPI, the October hike probability jumped from about 20% to around 50%, then fell back to about 30%, but the December hike pricing remains "firmly locked in." In the dot plot, 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year; none expect a rate cut.
This means for your positions: high interest rates will be maintained longer → risk assets (including ETH, SOL$DOGE #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Those hoarding Dogecoin hoping to get rich quick are "fools."
From the perspective of data and market capitalization, it's almost impossible for Dogecoin to rise to 8 dollars, at least under the current token mechanism and market scale, which is an extremely low-probability event.
In other words, even if it rises to 1 dollar, the market cap would have to exceed 150 billion dollars; to reach 8 dollars, a massive amount of global funds would need to continuously flow in and be locked in DOGE for the long term. Meanwhile, DOGE has no yield, no interest, no scarcity cap, and is continuously issued every year, so holders have no natural incentive to lock their coins long-term.
Currently, more optimistic analyses believe DOGE could reach 0.30-1 dollar in a strong bull market, with only a very few extremely optimistic views mentioning higher targets. But 8 dollars is not within the mainstream analysis framework and is more like a "dream price" in community sentiment. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Looking at BTC, not just BTC
The more uncertain the market, the more Bitcoin dominance acts like a sentiment thermometer. When risk appetite contracts, funds tend to flow first to the most liquid and widely agreed-upon asset, making BTC a temporary safe haven, while altcoins face more obvious selling pressure.
But note: BTC stabilizing does not mean the entire market is safe. If BTC holds steady sideways but altcoins continue to weaken, it looks more like funds are clustering defensively rather than a broad return to risk-taking. At this time, the market prefers "relative safety," not "full-on offense."
True recovery is not just about whether BTC is strong, but whether that strength can spill over. Improvements in altcoin trading volume, on-chain activity, sector rotation, and whether the total market cap can rise as dominance falls are the real diffusion signals.
Therefore, in the short term, use BTC dominance to read sentiment; in the long term, use capital diffusion to verify recovery. Don’t misinterpret BTC’s stability as springtime for the entire market. $BTC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report post-IPO to be unveiled #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new highlight 123The current market situation is like fire and ice! The hedge position of Maji Big Brother, valued at 50 million, has been disclosed, with both long and short layouts. The account profits show extreme divergence, and the scene of large investors' long-term game is very shocking.
Detailed breakdown of three sets of positions
① BTC short｜40x full position
Holding -243.96 BTC, position market value 20,039,500 U
Entry price 84070.0
Unrealized profit 470,700 U, funding fee income 68,400 U
Margin 501,000 U, liquidation price 104,583.12
This position continuously brings positive returns and is the safety base of the entire hedge portfolio.
② ETH long｜25x full position
Holding 7,223.81 ETH, position market value 17,736,600 U
Entry price 2500.18
Unrealized loss 324,300 U, funding fee expense 21,200 U
Margin 709,500 U, liquidation price 1672.24
Slight pullback is still within controllable range, a normal fluctuation within the hedge portfolio.
③ HYPE short｜5x full position
Holding -268,300 HYPE, position market value 21,952,000 U
Entry price 66.2399
Unrealized loss 4,179,800 U, funding fee income 1,047,000 U
Margin 4,390,400 U, liquidation price 100.6
Also the biggest pressure point of the entire portfolio, deep unrealized loss drags down overall account performance.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? To add a bit more, $STRK, $PYTH, and $ZRO have all had decent fundamentals recently. Ajian's homepage has some analysis on this, but the simultaneous drop today indicates that altcoin liquidity remains fragile. This isn't an issue with a single project; when funds withdraw from high-volatility assets, prices quickly lose support. This precisely shows that the market currently favors selective trading rather than a systemic altcoin rebound. Ordinary traders can take this moment to decide whether they should continue to increase their positions in the entire altcoin market Last night, watching ETH's fake breakout at 2500, I actually felt a jolt in my heart. Have you ever had that feeling where you know you should be excited, but your body preemptively reduces your position? In the afternoon, ETH tried 2500 once, but was pushed back decisively. When the US stock market opened in the evening, it slid down further along with the stock index. But honestly, this round of crypto decline is relatively mild; at least there was no panic selling. BTC closed near 79,000 the day before yesterday, moving so fast that it made me wonder if the market has already priced in the bad news. What I care about now is not whether it falls or not, but that the capital preference has changed. In the past, at times like this, money would flee to BTC and ETH, while altcoins would bleed heavily. This time? BTC and ETH are indeed relatively resistant to the drop, but altcoins haven't experienced a complete collapse either. What does this indicate? It means that funds in the market haven't massively withdrawn; they're just repositioning. Some people choose to wait and see, some are still betting on a rebound, and some are already tired, with narrative fatigue clearly evident. The FOMO sentiment is almost invisible, replaced by hesitation and numbness. This emotional structure is actually quite subtle. Bulls don't dare to chase, bears don't dare to heavily short; everyone is waiting for a clearer signal. The bullish logic is this: if the US stock market is just undergoing a normal correction and crypto has already had a round of decline in advance, then ETH reclaiming 2500 is only a matter of time, which will trigger a wave of catch-up buying sentiment, and altcoins will also get a breather. But the risk is also clear: if the US stock market adjustment has just begun#Barclays' Scenario of SpaceX Acquiring Tesla
Those analysts at Barclays actually wrote a script saying SpaceX is going to acquire Tesla.
It reads like it's real. They say the announcement could come as soon as before December 6, with 1 Tesla share exchanged for 0.7 SpaceX shares. If it really happens, Musk's voting power could reach 56%, making it a complete one-man show. What's the point? To tie AI, robotics, energy, and rockets all into one powerhouse.
But I have to pour cold water on this for you guys. This is purely analysts crunching numbers in their office, not even a hint of a formal decision, no board resolutions, no official negotiations—don't take it as gospel.
What does it have to do with us?
First, if these two trillion-dollar giants really merge, all the money will concentrate into this super platform. For our crypto space with its high-volatility assets, the short-term liquidity we can get will be even less.
Second, the core of the merger is about AI, energy, and aerospace. The demand for computing hardware will still rise, so miners' costs won't go down at all. Those small-cap coins in crypto just riding the AI hype by writing whitepapers won't stand a chance against these giants—they'll be left with nothing.
My view is simple.
Capital markets love storytelling. When reports like this come out, it's most likely to hype up the upcoming market moves. Let's just watch the show and definitely don't chase those random "merger concept" pump-and-dump coins—they're easy traps. Just wait patiently for the macro data.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH 20261017
3. The number of wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC has risen to 20,338, reaching a historic high
1. Large holders are buying, while others are desperately selling; both directions are happening simultaneously
2. Santiment: These wallets (holding 10-10,000 BTC) usually turn earlier than the price, so they are firm and usually a bottom signal. The price oscillates back and forth in the middle, but they haven't left. Short term may continue to fall
3. The futures market has turned; the funding rate for BTC on Binance has dropped below zero: most are shorting, expecting a drop; the last time it was this pessimistic was in June, when BTC was at 62,000, and money was also flowing out
4. US BTC spot net inflows were 3.5 billion and 2.6 billion in August and September respectively, with about 540 million net outflow in the first two weeks of October
5. The turning point is inflation data, hotter than expected, raising the probability of rate hikes
6. Key levels:
Downside: 80,000 has the largest buy wall, below that is 78,000
Upside: 80,000 is the cost basis for buyers over 8 to 12 months and also the position where shorts will be squeezed
Only when the daily closes above 88,000+, combined with ETF inflows, can it be considered that someone is really stepping in
7. If the price retests 80,000, watch if the wallet number continues to rise; large holders buying at low prices is a bullish signal
8. Large holders have hit a new high, shorts are also heavily stacked; historically, these two often appear simultaneously, then go their separate waysThe market has been quite twisted recently: On the crude oil side, risks in Middle East transportation have heated up, and with U.S. crude oil inventories dropping by 8.6 million barrels in one week, supply expectations suddenly tightened, pushing oil prices up. However, the price surge driven by this geopolitical conflict has a significant emotional component; once the situation eases, the pullback will be quick, so be cautious about chasing highs.
On the crypto side, after a big drop, it's slowly recovering. BTC was pulled back after falling below 80,000, indicating buyers are stepping in at that level, but with CPI and PPI continuously running hot, inflation pressure remains, and the Fed's stance can stir risk assets at any time. The 80,000 level will see repeated battles, and the 83,000 mark is the threshold for a rebound; don’t rush to call a reversal before a volume breakout.
ETH is weaker; first watch if 2,400 can hold, and if it can’t reclaim 2,500, it can’t be considered strong. Plus, spot ETF funds are still flowing out, so whether the rebound has momentum needs a few more days to observe. Overall: crude oil is strong but with emotional overtones, crypto is in recovery but don’t be too optimistic.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Tesla released the new generation Roadster last night, demonstrating short-distance flight and aerial attitude adjustment on site using cold air thrusters. Musk said this was developed in collaboration with SpaceX and is expected to enter mass production in 2028. The news initially drove the stock price up by 4.62%, then it gave back gains and turned down by 1.16%. The rise and fall of $TSLA itself is the market repricing this story. What really matters is not the car, but the timing. This car was unveiled in 2017, originally planned for production in 2020, but has been repeatedly delayed until now. Whether the market believes the new 2028 timeline is another matter. The flight feature sounds cool, but regulatory frameworks for flying cars on roads are not ready in any country, and the difficulty of implementation is greater than the technology itself. The stock price rising then falling indicates the market is doing the math. The Roadster is a plus, but Tesla’s real problem now is fundamentals: Q3 deliveries fell 2.1% year-over-year, automotive business profit margins are under pressure, and Robotaxi commercialization is still in progress. Relying on a repeatedly delayed sports car cannot support anxiety over the core business. For $BTC, this matter is not direct. Tesla and SpaceX represent AI and high-end manufacturing directions; the bigger the hype, the greater the imagination space for tech stocks, and risk appetite may warm up accordingly. But Tesla rising does not mean $BTC rises; their logics differ. $BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance from 83,500 to 84,500 and support from 81,500 to 82,000. Truly# US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) holdings have risen to 4.08 million coins.
Definition of STH: addresses holding for less than 155 days. This group is the most price-sensitive in the market—they tend to chase when prices rise and sell quickly when prices fall.
Currently at 4.08 million coins, which is below the level at the 2021 peak and even lower than in 2017.
Historical pattern: at the price peak of every bull market, it is often when the buying momentum of STH is exhausted. The more STH there are, the more newcomers are taking over; when this group's buying power runs out, prices stop rising.
From this perspective, 4.08 million coins are still some distance from the historical peak signal range—this is an optimistic interpretation.
But there is a key variable now:
Many of these 4.08 million STH built their positions during BTC's decline from the $126,198 high— their cost basis ranges between $80,000 and $100,000.
The good news: September data shows the STH-SOPR 30-day moving average has returned to 1.01, above the breakeven line for the first time in over a year, indicating reduced short-term selling pressure from loss clearing.
The bad news: BTC is now around $81,000, right in the cost pressure zone for many STH. If the market declines, this group is the most likely to stop loss, which could easily trigger a chain reaction in price.
With STH increasing to 4.08 million, what’s your take—are new funds stepping in to catch the dip, or is smart money waiting to sell?The most interesting contrast about BTC today: more people are long, yet contract funds are net outflowing.
No guessing the price direction today, let's break down leverage and capital structure.
▍Positions remain, trading cools down first
The total open interest of contracts across the network is about $140.564 billion, down only 0.51% in 24 hours, but trading volume dropped by 22.28%.
This indicates trading activity has decreased faster, existing positions have not exited proportionally, and trading is quiet.
▍More bulls, but buying pressure may not dominate
The network-wide 24-hour active buy-sell ratio is 49.56% to 50.44%, with selling slightly dominant.
OKX's BTC account long-short ratio reaches 1.8, meaning about 64.3% of accounts are long, but this does not necessarily mean an advantage.
▍Spot and contracts diverge
BTC in the last 4 hours:
Spot net inflow of $10.8 million.
Contract net outflow of $80.82 million.
Extended to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $37.46 million, contract net outflow is $61.82 million.
According to this capital flow, spot shows net buying, while contract active selling still dominates. But this does not prove all are shorts adding positions.
My judgment:
There is both support and divergence, not enough to confirm a reversal yet.
More worth watching than how many people are bullish is whether subsequent buying can push the price up. Delivery volume exceeding expectations has laid the foundation for revenue, but the profitability side faces triple pressures of low gross margins, energy storage deployment falling short of expectations, and surging R&D and capital expenditures. The probability of EPS falling short of expectations is high, and the overall financial report presents a "mixed bag" pattern—revenue may slightly exceed expectations, but earnings per share are very likely below consensus. Market focus will quickly shift to management's statements on FSD v15 progress, Robotaxi commercialization pace, and full-year free cash flow guidance.
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus SanDisk really made me question life this week 😇😇
At the beginning of the week, it was hovering around 1600, but once ChangXin Memory's new technology news came out, the entire storage sector got hit, and $SNDK especially kept dropping all the way down.
It fell 19% over the week, hitting a low of 1279...
I previously bought at 1419.1 and sold at 1504.6, which was a timely exit, then I bought back more than one long position at 1341.1.
Yesterday I was still up over 50 USD, but today when I checked again, the price had dropped back near 1300.
That's pretty frustrating.
However, my fundamental view on SanDisk hasn't fundamentally changed for now. ChangXin's breakthrough is in DRAM technology, while SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND, so the two can't be directly equated.
But the market has obviously started to reassess the entire storage sector. Next week, I want to focus on the reaction around 1300.
No matter how logical the fundamentals are, if the price keeps going down, you can't just pretend you don't see it.
NFA, DYOR!
#KoreanStockRecoveryRebound, can foreign capital selling pressure ease? Take the newly launched ctusdt as an example: 1 billion tokens were issued, and on the blockchain, about 19% are in circulation, which is 190 million. The current price is roughly $0.35. This DNA talks nicely about only 13% circulation and the rest being locked, but you actually issued 10 billion tokens, bro. That means you already have 1.3 billion in circulation. What are all these bulls thinking? Don't blindly follow the hype to go long. 📊 Profit & Margin Outlook
Analysts expect revenue to grow, but profitability may remain under pressure due to aggressive price cuts and substantial capital spending.
• EPS Expectations: Consensus forecasts range from $0.37 to $0.44 per share, below the peak levels seen in late 2025.
• Automotive Gross Margin Watch: Investors will be watching closely to see whether core automotive margins can stabilize or recover from the 16.3% reported in 2026.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #US PPI Year-on-Year Rises to 6.3%
[Old Leek Observation] US PPI Year-on-Year Surges to 6.3%, Adding Uncertainty to Rate Cut Expectations
US September PPI year-on-year growth rose from 5.6% to 6.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, marking the largest rise since March 2022. The rise in energy prices is a key driver of this rebound.
The issue is that if rising production costs continue to pass through to the consumer side, inflation may be harder to bring down than the market expects.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
If inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be limited, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields could again put pressure on risk assets like BTC.
But it’s not necessary to assume the market will fall just because PPI is rising. Whether the shock from energy prices can be sustained and whether subsequent CPI follows higher are key to judging the inflation trend.
Right now, the market’s biggest fear is not a temporary pause in rate cuts, but that the originally expected easing is repeatedly broken by data. If inflation remains stubbornly high, it will also be harder for BTC to sustain gains driven by rate cut expectations.
Next, focus on upcoming inflation data and the market’s repricing of the Federal Reserve’s rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL is bearish, current price 104.82. Most of the liquidations in the past day were longs, with $3.26 million in long positions liquidated, significantly more than shorts. The price hasn't dropped much, but longs were knocked out first, indicating that during the intraday downward sweep, the leveraged longs chasing at high levels were forced out, while shorts just followed the trend. The $930 million open interest remains, so this liquidation volume is a small portion; leverage is far from cleaned out. If the price tests lower again, another batch of longs will be forced to exit. The funding rate has turned slightly negative, which only indicates a cooler sentiment and shouldn't be used as a reason alone. The chart shows lower highs, bearish moving average alignment, and volume contraction on rebounds, consistent with the liquidation direction. Next, it is more likely to retest around 102.43. The condition for a bullish reversal is the price reclaiming 107.37, with long liquidations no longer leading shorts.