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#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
Nonfarm payrolls have increased market bets on a December rate hike, making this CPI report a key test. The Federal Reserve focuses more on core CPI, paying special attention to the stickiness of service and housing inflation.
Three scenarios
- Above expectations: Inflation stickiness strengthens, rate hike expectations heat up, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen, while gold and risk assets come under pressure.
- In line with expectations: The market will likely reflect expectations, mainly fluctuating, with little significant change to existing pricing.
- Significantly below expectations: Rate hike expectations cool down, the dollar weakens, benefiting gold and risk assets.
Key levels
Spot gold: resistance at 4080, 4106; support at 4026, strong defense at 3970
BTC: resistance at 76300; support at 74500, strong support at 73700
Nasdaq 100: support at 18200, resistance at 18850
Trading approach
Data releases often cause spikes; avoid heavy positions and premature speculation. Wait for the data to settle and the market to confirm before taking action. The core of the market movement lies in the expectation gap, not merely meeting expectations.
Brothers, what are your thoughts next? Let's discuss in the comments…After the 401(k)-related rules entered the final review, the market rushed to calculate how much buying power pensions could bring to crypto. Instead, I first thought about the costs.
The previously announced proposal requires managers to consider factors such as fees, liquidity, and valuation. The final rules are still under review, and the specific content is yet to come, but one thing is clear: long-term retirement savings are very sensitive to costs.
For example, purely hypothetically, with the same principal, if the annualized net return drops from 6% to 5%, the final value after 30 years would be about 25% less. Just a one percentage point difference per year, extended over time, makes a significant difference.
This is also why I am more selective about "products entering retirement accounts." How much management fee the user ultimately bears, whether there are other layers of fees, and whether exit is convenient all affect the long-term outcome.
The CLARITY Act is stalled, and market structure rules remain uncertain; the path for retirement products to move forward also requires specific products to withstand scrutiny. Regulatory progress is worth celebrating, but fees and services cannot be ignored just because the topic is popular.
I look forward to crypto gaining more recognition from long-term funds and hope these funds seriously compare products under conditions. Allocations that remain based on low costs, clear valuation, and stable service are usually more reliable than short-term buying driven by news hype. I can accept this process being a bit slower.
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 CORE Roadmap Breakdown: Is BTCFi the Ultimate Closed Loop or Just Another PPT? Three Signals Reveal the Truth
CORE presents a grand blueprint externally: to build a "Bitcoin Power Grid," relying on three major engines—AMP asset management protocol, LST liquidity staking, and SatPay payments—to construct a complete flywheel. The goal is for the ecosystem to generate real revenue, which feeds back into CORE token buybacks, breaking away from the old model solely dependent on inflation subsidies, thus completing the BTCFi business closed loop. The ideal is ambitious, but amid the current b14g coin theft crisis, governance disputes, and liquidity exhaustion, the market's biggest question is: can the roadmap truly be implemented, or is it just PPT storytelling? You can judge authenticity by focusing on three key verification signals. First, verifiable continuous buyback records. The core promise of the roadmap is that ecosystem revenue will be used to buy back CORE tokens, which is the foundation of the entire economic model. If long-term on-chain public and traceable buyback actions are not seen, no matter how perfect the flywheel design is, it remains just a paper story. Second, real ecosystem TVL and user growth. The closed loop is not written on paper; it is built by capital accumulation. Currently, CORE's on-chain activity is sluggish, and compared to projects like Babylon in the same track, capital is continuously flowing out. Only steady increases in staking volume and active addresses represent genuine user capture by the product. Third, governance security issues must be fully resolved. The coin theft incident left the biggest trust scar: the precedent of a hard fork to modify the ledger makes the market constantly worry about intervention risks. Only with a clear compensation plan and transparent transfer of governance rights will investors dare to re-enter.Elon Musk has pushed the "annualized $100 billion" heavy piece to the center of the board, while simultaneously reducing the government's revenue share from 16.6% to below 10%—this is not a tailwind attack, but a proactive sacrifice to open lines.
The nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q4 is a typical midgame tactical combination: taking the initiative and forcing the opponent to respond; the annualized $100 billion is a promotion line, not a single-step check. The government's share decline is like removing a lone pawn in front of the king, reducing single-client constraints, but short-term cash flow must be supplemented by commercial launches and satellite networks; if the supplement is slow, the pawn structure will reveal gaps.
Tesla plans to gradually phase out Cybertruck by mid-2027, freeing up Texas factory capacity for Cybercab, which is withdrawing the low-turnover heavy piece from the closed wing and deploying it to the robotaxi open line. The key is not the announcement, but the rhythm of capacity conversion: factory renovation, supply chain ramp-up, regulatory approval, demand validation—each step is like a precise king move in the endgame; one misstep turns a draw into a loss.
$xHOOD, as a light piece representing tokenized US stocks, is linked first to the liquidity pawn chain: it moves first when risk appetite rises and is constrained first when liquidity tightens. Narratives can check, but the "target" must not be mistaken for "promotion achieved"; trade depth, premium/discount, and tracking error are all squares that must be controlled.
The truly profitable players don’t move step by step but calculate twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. If SpaceX delivers on both lines, the valuation narrative checks; if both quarter-over-quarter growth and government share are lost simultaneously, it’s a blitz. If Tesla’s capacity switch is delayed, the Cybercab line becomes a hanging pawn. My judgment: this is not the endgame, but a midgame combination under time pressure; the most dangerous piece on the board is not the opponent’s king, but you mistaking the "target" for the "captured piece." #spacex100brevenuetargetThe overnight liquidation was brutal, totaling $855 million across the market, with bulls bearing 90% of it. $BTC dipped to 73,708 but was pulled back above 75,000. The price looks stable, but funding rates are so low they're negligible. The long-short ratio is 58 to 42, with both sides watching cautiously; no one dares to bet heavily. Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion last week, with 410 million running off on Friday alone—buying interest is truly absent.
The A-share market traded 1.02 trillion in half a day, shrinking by 112.6 billion compared to last Friday. Coal, telecom, and robotics sectors took turns leading the rally. Yushu Technology rose 8.7%, but volume lagged, making chasing highs risky.
The US tech-heavy index rebounded 4.2%, AMD surged 11%, but the whole week saw a 12% drop in the tech-heavy index. Only 37% of S&P components rose; the rebound failed to spread broadly.
$ETH is even weaker than $BTC, with funding rates hitting rock bottom. Solana's advertising in Shanghai was directly halted by the central bank, leaving no regulatory loopholes. If the short-term holding cost line at 75,700 can't be reclaimed, it remains a rebound, not a reversal.11 billion USD is just pouring the first floor slab to elevation, not the topping out; a valuation of 1.25 trillion USD below the earlier target is the most glaring red line of a downgrade on the blueprint. The capital consortium entering is like a pile foundation subcontractor; SoftBank and Middle Eastern funds are not just facade decorative lines but are shear walls bearing lateral forces; if the largest investor changes to a UAE consortium, it means the core tube is changing its load path, and every subsequent node must be recalculated.
Microsoft and a social media giant jointly issued 40 billion USD in bonds, Oracle raised 20 billion USD through equity and debt financing, which is like casting reinforced concrete for future computing power demand in advance. Debt is the embedded steel structure, cash flow is the concrete curing period; insufficient curing causes the slab to crack first, and then talking about the tower's pinnacle design is empty talk. Financing needs and valuation pressure have never been about who builds higher but whether the foundation bearing capacity, upper structure stiffness, and construction rhythm match. Money coming too fast is like rushing the schedule: adding floors before formwork is removed, once settlement monitoring alarms, no matter how bright the curtain wall is, it cannot hide the stress concentration in the core tube.
XPL and similar US stock tokenized mapped targets are more like a glass curtain wall system, with fast heat transfer and strong reflection, able to quickly reflect the smart infrastructure financing chain's temperature changes onto the market; but the curtain wall is not a load-bearing wall, don't mistake the skin stiffness for structural safety. Once the underlying asset cash flow node loosens, the curtain wall reacts first, then the core tube cracks. What really needs monitoring is the pile end bearing layer, shear wall continuity, and the anchorage length of debt nodes, not the lighting effects of the valuation tower crown. When the steel content of financing exceeds the cash flow bearing capacity, even the highest valuation tower pinnacle is just a sway under wind load. #openai11bfundingLet's start with a reality check: opening a large long position doesn't necessarily mean the direction is certain. When I see such orders, I usually first calculate how much they can withstand, rather than guessing what the big players know. For now, I don't consider this a bullish signal; the position size is quite noticeable, but the margin for error may not be enough.
Core Trader 14 (0x24fb65…bed0f) opened a long $ETH position with 15x leverage, amounting to 444 tokens, with a notional value of about $948,800, reference price $2136.9009. I am cautious for two reasons: roughly calculating initial margin by dividing notional position by leverage, it’s about $63,300; if the price moves 3% against the position, the unrealized loss would consume about 45% of this margin, excluding fees and margin calls, and this is not an exact liquidation estimate. Also, monitoring only shows this long position, without the wallet’s full hedging arrangements, so we can’t treat this partial position as a unilateral bet. If someone adds leverage in this direction without similar buffers, they might suffer more when the market moves against them than the original wallet.
Of course, the other side might be right. If the price continues to hold above the reference price and pullbacks hold as well, I will reduce my doubts about the direction; if I also observe active deleveraging, I will lower the risk assessment. Don’t get excited too quickly—I want to see if the position can withstand adverse volatility first. Regarding this 15x long, are you bullish or bearish? Is your reasoning based on price confirmation or leverage risk? Be specific.On the radar echo, USDC's on-chain moisture flux suddenly rose to 49%, while the dry cold advection behind the upper trough simultaneously pressed down — this is not a uniformly distributed rain-through, but a frontal passage characterized by "bright precipitation, weak energy." Q3 revenue and reserve income increased by 17% year-on-year to $865 million, while continuing operating net profit only rose 5% to $226 million, indicating that the cloud volume is expanding but latent heat of condensation is not being released synchronously. Reserve income dropped 8% to $658 million, equivalent to weakened sea surface temperature support and the removal of underlying thermal conditions; the more active the on-chain transaction volume, the more it resembles strong convection converging at low altitude, with intense instantaneous rainfall but duration depending on moisture supply.
Arc blockchain's token presale contributed $182 million, lifting other income into localized artificial rain: a sudden high echo appeared on the radar, concentrated in the landing area, with very nice rain gauge readings, but this does not mean the large-scale circulation has changed. Forecasters most fear mistaking single-station heavy rain for a climate trend, and also fear mistaking one-time topographic uplift for monsoon establishment. USDC's 49% is moisture flux, reserve income's -8% is energy supply, revenue's 17% is echo area, and net profit's 5% is actual rainfall — putting these four elements together, the readings are lukewarm, but the structure is fragmented.
Looking at the US stock token XIREN, it resembles a downstream observation station: as the upstream cloud mass passes, first observe moisture transport, then low-level shear, and finally whether the urban heat island will re-trigger the echo. Focusing only on transaction volume as a wind vane risks overlooking the decline in reserve yield, the dry tongue; once the dry tongue extends in, showers quickly turn to cloudy skies. Arc's presale income is a localized rain enhancement rocket, capable of producing a burst but cannot be taken as the subtropical high shifting north. The current pressure field has not formed a sustained deep trough; XIREN's linkage is more likely a shortwave trough passage: there is wind, rain, and thunder, but the geopotential height does not support continuous heavy rain. The divergence in ensemble forecasts lies not in revenue but in reserve income as the energy line; once sea surface temperature continues to drop, even if on-chain moisture is strong, it is difficult to raise precipitation efficiency to the previous level.
My judgment: this is a passage of high cloud cover and low-level conditional instability, with impressive apparent precipitation but declining thermal conditions; XIREN's radar echo has already shown peripheral clutter, which does not equal the storm center landing. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%Net outflows for six consecutive weeks, and what I'm focusing on is this "consecutive" aspect. First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the outflows continue and other buying forces fail to catch up, then the risk of price pressure remains unresolved. This is my scenario analysis. During the same period, some large addresses also bought or withdrew $ETH.
⚠️ What concerns me more is the persistence of capital outflows, not the comfort of "whales increasing holdings." There are two risk points: continuous outflows mean the ETF demand channel has not yet reversed; withdrawals do not equal new buying, so address activity cannot be directly equated with absorption capacity. These two types of data have different calibers and putting them together does not mean they can offset each other.
A habit from my previous risk control work is to first calculate what I can tolerate. A piece of advice for ordinary people: convert the maximum single loss you can bear into a proportion of your account, rather than just focusing on the stop-loss price. For me, whale activity can be observed but should not be used to reduce the risk budget.To be honest, I used to think that once the direction was clear, using higher leverage just meant occupying less principal. But after suffering losses, I realized the biggest pitfall I fall into is treating "can still hold on" as a plan, which results in heavier positions and more reluctance to admit mistakes.
This time, monitoring shows that Core Trader 12 just opened a $XYZ100 long position with 30x leverage, a nominal value of about $249,700. It's just an opening position now, and the outcome is unknown, so we can't endorse his judgment based on position size alone.
My view is that the key to this trade isn't whether he dares to go long, but whether the risk budget is clear enough. Roughly calculating with 30x leverage, if the price moves against him by about 1%, the loss would be around 30% of the initial margin, not including fees; such a seemingly small fluctuation is already enough to affect discipline in execution.
Another issue is that we don't know the total funds behind this wallet, nor whether there is any hedging. The same nominal position size represents very different pressure if it accounts for 10% of the account versus more than half. So I wouldn't judge whether he's making a prudent layout or taking a risk based solely on this opening position news.
I now stick to two rules: one is to first set the maximum loss for this trade, then reverse-calculate the position size based on stop-loss distance; the other is to write down exit conditions before entering, and not move the stop-loss further away just because of reluctance. Work is already mentally draining enough; in trading, I'd rather earn less than rely on stubbornly holding on to get by.While $BTC reclaimed $75,000, ETH fell over 5% to $2,060 overnight. Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin — that is classic risk-off, not a BTC-only story. My call: as long as alts keep leading down, $BTC upside stays capped into CPI. Strength returns when ETH stops making new lows. Not financial advice — DYOR.RKLB opportunity is here!
Latest interview statement from NASA Administrator Isaacman is very clear: As Falcon 9 gradually reduces production and exits the market, the short-term launch market will experience fluctuations, which is exactly the window Rocket Lab has been waiting for. The Neutron rocket is about to debut, and the demand in the launch market is indisputable.
With SpaceX's Falcon 9 gradually retiring, there will be a gap in medium and large launch capacity. Neutron is positioned to precisely fill this market gap, which is the long-awaited opportunity for RKLB. Market demand is confirmed, now it depends on the progress of Neutron's deployment. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ $BTC is on track for a fifth straight losing week — that has only happened twice since 2017. A weekly close above $78,232 ends the streak. My prediction: the streak probably extends one more week, but stretched trends snap back harder than people expect. The turn starts slow, then fast. Not financial advice — DYOR.The easiest cost to overlook in a technical upgrade is the developers' man-hours. When I saw this news, my first reaction was not "transaction fees will drop," but rather: will assembling on-chain applications in the future require an additional version check?
PANews, November 9 — Ethereum developer Leo Glicic submitted an EIP draft proposing to implement gas repricing with versioned opcodes while maintaining backward compatibility. Newly deployed contracts must use V2 opcodes and the gas schedule of EIP-8037/8038, while existing contracts will continue using the old schedule. This is still a draft.
My judgment is that this is more like a challenge for the development toolchain rather than an immediate signal of cost savings for ordinary users. Repricing does not mean a uniform price reduction; leaving room for future adjustment costs does not mean the transaction fees in your wallet will immediately decrease.
Specifically regarding collaboration, the new DELEGATECALL_V2 requires the target contract version to be at least 2, or it will fail immediately. If an application needs to combine across versions, the development team may need to add tests and call checks, which is my speculation. Protecting old contracts is valuable, but the interface between new and old systems also requires tools to manage.
So I am more concerned about whether the supporting tools can keep up, rather than prematurely labeling this as a positive. If the applications you frequently use need to adapt to this set of rules, would you most want the team to publicly share the compatibility list, test results, or estimated migration costs? Rocket Lab is releasing its earnings tonight. Here's a counterintuitive conclusion upfront: revenue and loss figures are unlikely to bring surprises—the market consensus is revenue of $257 million, up 66% year-over-year, right in the middle of the company's guidance range, which is a "known answer."
What really sets the price is another matter: whether the Neutron rocket will continue to be delayed.
The earnings report focuses on three things:
① Gross margin—guidance lowered to 29–31%, dragged down by the low-margin satellite business; watch the actual outcome;
② Losses—past three quarters have consistently beaten their own guidance, but this quarter's guidance unusually points to an increase (loss of $17–23 million); Q4 guidance is a new point of interest;
③ Neutron wording—just repeating "2027, no date" is neutral; explicitly stating "Q1 testing on schedule" would be positive.
The stock price already jumped 15% on Friday ahead of the report, with options implying ±15% volatility post-earnings.
The average sell-side target price is $97, implying doubling potential—provided Neutron doesn't disappoint again this time.
This is not just an earnings report; it's a vote of confidence.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Look at the two lines first: The red line represents the intensity of long position liquidations below, which steadily declines from the left and completely drops to zero around 74150. Brothers, note that the red line in the morning's chart hit zero at 75083, and now it has moved down to 74150—this indicates that all the long positions between 75000 and 74000 have been fully liquidated in this recent drop. The green line shows the intensity of short position liquidations above, climbing from 74150 up to 82142, and has now accumulated to 300 million. It was only 100 million in the morning, tripling in half a day.
Looking at the bars above: The 100x high-leverage orange bars are most concentrated around 76310 with 13.3 million, and near 76650 with 12 million. The 50x yellow bars are around 72746 with 9.6 million (below the current price), and near 77282 with 6.8 million.
Conclusion: The current price at 74055 is exactly stuck at the red line's zero point. The long positions near 74000 below have mostly been liquidated, so the downside space is actually limited—because there are no long position chips left to trigger chained liquidations. Above, around 76300, there is a wall of 13.3 million 100x short positions that the rebound will have to face.
This suggests a possible technical rebound near 74000 in the short term, since the long positions below have been cleaned out. But the rebound height is expected to reach 76300, where a large amount of short position liquidations will occur. If 74000 does not hold, the next long position liquidation zone is the 9.6 million 50x bar at 72700.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH Brothers, I’ve noticed that 八佰哥 now has a pretty serious problem: he’s losing too much and seems to be gradually losing the ability to independently judge the market.
Look at his operations these past few days:
On November 4, he went 8x long on SOXL, with an unrealized profit of 65,000 U and a return rate close to 94%. He boldly said it would either liquidate or take off.
On November 5, SOXL kept dropping, and his 10x long positions suffered large unrealized losses one after another, finally cutting losses on the last three trades consecutively. According to public posts, the weekly loss had already expanded to over 800,000 U.
By November 7, he was still planning for BTC to rise to 150,000 and ETH to 5,000, relying on a bull market to recover, still holding 20x long BTC positions.
On November 8, the 10x long SOXL position was closed at a -34.42% return.
To be blunt, 八佰哥 now gives me the feeling that he’s not really studying the market anymore; his mind is full of how to make back the lost money.
When it drops, he bottoms out; if it keeps falling, he waits for a rebound; after cutting losses, he switches coins and goes long again.
With such a large capital base, maintaining this trading rhythm after continuous losses really makes me sweat for him.
八佰哥@八佰哥爱理财, what you probably need most right now isn’t the next bull market or another long position.
It’s to stop first and seriously think: if the market still doesn’t follow your script this time, how many more chances do you really have to reopen positions?
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ My first reaction is: it's the usual tug-of-war between "capital withdrawal VS big players buying." I usually look at which side has more solid evidence first, and I don't rush to applaud the term "bottom fishing."
The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $365.3 million last week, marking six consecutive weeks of net outflows; meanwhile, some large addresses either bought or withdrew ETH during the same period. The same piece of news can indeed be read with two different sentiments.
But I think the weight of these two sides is not equal: continuous net outflows reflect sustained pressure on this type of product, and the explanation of weekly fluctuations is not enough; large address purchases reflect the willingness of some funds, but withdrawals do not equal new buying, nor can they directly prove they offset ETF outflows.
So regarding the short-term capital flow of $ETH, I am cautious; the actions of big players are not yet enough to be considered a reversal signal. Do you lean more towards "ETF outflows carry more weight" or "big player actions are worth tracking"? What evidence would make you switch sides?"ETH dropped to 2110.80 USD, with a 24-hour decline of 5.46%. Looking at the numbers alone, it doesn't seem too severe, but when you put the liquidation data alongside, the nature changes: during the same period, the total network contract liquidations reached 1.002 billion USD, with long positions accounting for 932 million. Almost all those liquidated in this round were bullish traders.
This is not an ordinary pullback; it's a one-sided liquidation. The shorts basically suffered no losses, indicating the price was pushed downward, with all the bulls crowded on the same side. The market's biggest fear has never been a drop, but everyone standing on the same side.
ETH itself liquidated 432 million USD within 24 hours, accounting for 43.11% of total liquidations. One coin consuming nearly half of the liquidation volume shows that $ETH is the center of this round of leverage, not a supporting player dragged down by the broader market. This ratio is more telling than the price drop because it reveals where the money is concentrated.
The sequence is also crucial: longs were liquidated first, then the price continued to fall. Liquidation itself is selling pressure. Forced liquidations dump sell orders, pushing the price down and triggering the next layer of liquidations. $BTC and $SOL weakened together, more like being pulled down by this chain.
So the question now isn't whether the drop is enough, but how many bulls remain. As long as leveraged longs aren't fully liquidated, every rebound will become new fuel. Only when the liquidation scale returns from the billion level to normal can we talk about recovery. Until then, bottom fishing and catching the falling knife are the same action, just with a nicer name.I imagined a restaurant after reading this: the owner says he holds shares, but when asked about the signature dish, he says you have to ask the kitchen. The business card is quite hot, but the menu is pretty cold 😂
Trump claims to be a co-owner of World Liberty Financial but doesn't understand the company's business. I think the celebrity status is overrated here: holding shares doesn't mean knowing how to run the business, and judging a project still requires looking at business disclosures—you can't take a group photo as a financial report.
Would you rather ask more about his responsibilities as a shareholder or the company's business details—who should report this menu?#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ This is the key reason why ETH's decline is deeper than BTC's.
After hackers steal large assets, stablecoins (USDT/USDC) can be urgently frozen by the issuers, but ETH cannot be frozen. Therefore, hackers prioritize converting stablecoins into ETH and gradually selling them off on decentralized exchanges (DEX), creating continuous and targeted selling pressure on ETH.
$ETH In addition, hackers still hold about 467,000 to 525,000 ETH (worth over $1 billion), which constitutes a huge potential oversupply, continuously suppressing market sentiment. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC at ~$74,300 is now below short-term holders' average cost of ~$75,700 — and below Strategy's ~$75,451 average too. When price sits under cost basis, holders sell into every bounce. My prediction: $75,700 is now resistance, not support, until a daily close reclaims it. Watch that level. Not financial advice — DYOR.The early morning spike was brutal, $BTC dropped straight from 75,700 to 73,500, with over 800 million liquidated in four hours, longs accounting for over 700 million. The price has recovered, but the funding rate is stuck at the floor, longs are paying but can't push the price up, something feels off.
The A-shares market was lively in the morning session, with commercial aerospace, CPO, and coal sectors taking turns to rally, half-day turnover exceeded one trillion, but volume shrank compared to last Friday. Whether the high open can hold is questionable.
In the US stock market, the semiconductor index rebounded over 4 points, AMD rose 11%, looking strong, but the Nasdaq fell 3.37% last week, with AI regulation and CPI still hanging over, the rebound feels more like a breather after a deep drop.
$ETH is even weaker than BTC, funding rate briefly turned negative, clearly weak. Solana's advertisement in Lujiazui was directly stopped, regulatory attitude left no room for ambiguity. What’s lacking now isn’t stories, but solid buying power. Huang admitted to an extramarital affair, and Nvidia perpetual contracts on OKX dropped nearly 4%, but when the Taiwan stock market opened today, Hon Hai, which assembles AI servers for Nvidia, surged nearly 6%🧐
Within half an hour of the open, Hon Hai recovered all the losses from Friday, and the entire Taiwan stock market rose more than 1,200 points.
Everyone outside was shouting that Asia would be hit by Huang on Monday, but Nvidia itself is falling while its Taiwanese supply chain is rising.
Just look at the timing to understand.
The Taiwan stock market closed at 1:30 PM on Friday, that evening the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.2%, and TSMC ADR rose 6.3%. Today’s Taiwan stock market is making up for that night.
Huang’s admission of guilt and the board’s investigation were both announced at 4 AM today, and Nvidia’s stock hasn’t traded even once since then.
The perpetual contract on OKX is now around 180, with funding rates turning negative, meaning shorts are paying longs.
The US stock market opens at 10:30 PM tonight. If Nvidia really opens 4% lower, how much of this 1,200-point gain in Taiwan stocks will remain tomorrow...The bulls are paying funding fees every day, and the price stubbornly stays at 75,000. This situation is a bit twisted. $BTC is barely holding on, $ETH is even weaker, and the leveraged longs are squeezed tightly. Any slight shake triggers a chain liquidation. The overnight long liquidation exceeding $1 billion was no joke.
On the other hand, the stock market is lively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 4 points, and AMD surged directly by 11%. But whether the A-shares can hold after a high open depends on whether the volume supports it; chasing highs is easy to get burned.
What the crypto market lacks now is not stories, but solid buying power. A positive funding rate only means the bulls are still holding on hard, not that they are strong. Spot ETFs have been flowing out continuously, and the risk appetite in tech stocks hasn't fully recovered yet. $BTC is stuck oscillating between 75,000 and 77,000; if it can't hold above, it will remain in a consolidation phase.The whole world is watching Huang Renxun's situation, fearing AI will continue to be under pressure! As of writing,
I checked, and the Nasdaq was unaffected, continuing to rise. It seems fundamentals are more important than this.After liquidating, he sold Ape NFTs to continue, and early this morning, Maji increased his long position to about $2.5 million.
At around 6 AM Beijing time, this drop forced liquidation of about 540 ETH longs, nominally about $1.18 million, realizing a loss of about $60,700. Minutes after the liquidation, he transferred about $16,600 remaining in one order book to another to continue trading.
He then sold 3 Bored Apes, acquiring about 17.2 ETH, approximately $36,800, and withdrew about 100 ETH, roughly $213,000, from the exchange. Around 9:30 AM, he deposited about 53,100 USDC into the original contract order book, opening about $1.48 million ETH longs at 25x leverage. Shortly after, he added about $30,000 more, further increasing his position.
At the time of posting, this long position had increased to about 1,175 ETH, nominally about $2.5 million, with an average entry price of about $2,138.59 and a liquidation price of about $2,110.66. Binance spot ETH was about $2,125, Bitcoin about $74,433, with an unrealized loss of about $17,000, only about 0.6% away from the liquidation price.
Another order book accumulated trading losses of about $1.62 million, after receiving about $485,000 in rewards, still net losing about $1.14 million.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the stock price has already risen 12% 👀
The earnings report will be released after the market closes tonight, and the conference call is at 5:30 AM tomorrow morning.
Guidance is below expectations: net bookings at 1.62 billion, Wall Street expects 1.79 billion.
What we're betting on isn't the earnings report, but something else.
GTA 6 launches in ten days, with 7.71 million pre-orders, after two delays.
I think there's no need to look at EPS tonight; watch if November 19th still holds.
If the date holds, this 12% rise is justified.
$TTWO
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% With one sentence from Musk, SoftBank dropped 10.8% in one day
Last Friday, Musk said on X, "SoftBank defaulted on turbine orders."
No evidence was provided, no supplier named, no project or amount specified.
SoftBank did not respond, but the market acted first: SoftBank's stock price fell 10.8% on Friday, 5-year CDS surged to 466 basis points, the highest since October 2022.
On the same day, Dutch bank ING was offloading about $500 million in data center loans, including $25 million linked to the Stargate construction site in New Mexico.
Oracle has already issued a force majeure notice to the developer of that site, allowing rent to be deferred, citing the possibility that the site may not open by 2028.
Stargate is the $500 billion plan announced by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle at the White House in January 2025.
Musk had said at the time they didn’t have that much money; SoftBank’s account balance is far less than $10 billion.
I think: the dispute isn’t about turbines, but about who will pay the $500 billion bill.
Some are starting to refuse to pay for AI infrastructure; just observing, not chasing.
Invalidation point: SoftBank closed for two consecutive days recovering more than half of last Friday’s drop, and Oracle withdrew the force majeure notice.
Which side are you on: Is Musk telling the truth or sabotaging competitors?
$TSLA $ORCL
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% After the non-farm payrolls data was released, gold prices quickly recovered, but essentially this is a capital game rather than a trend reversal. The macro news is torn between bullish and bearish, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable, so blind optimism is not advisable.
Resistance above: The non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, directly pushing the December rate hike bets to around 80%, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening, forming the toughest cap on the current market.
Support below: The central bank's strategic gold purchases have not stopped, combined with lingering tail risks from geopolitical issues, providing solid support from allocation demand below.
Capital game: Short-term leveraged funds are deleveraging and reducing positions, while long-term allocation funds are buying on dips; these two forces undermine each other, causing the market to frequently shake out.
Currently, all key variables are waiting for the CPI data to break the deadlock. Before the data is released, most breakouts and breakdowns are likely false moves. Maintain independent thinking, observe the real pricing of the US dollar and US Treasuries, and patiently await a certainty opportunity.Today's US-Iran situation continues to reverse after reversal
Intro
Not long after Trump just signaled it was unlikely to take military action against Iran again,
Brent Bz once dropped more than $1 in early trading.
Yet, news broke of three oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz, so shipping risks have not been smooth sailing (Is the blond guy just doing T back and forth?)
Qatar's Prime Minister plans to meet Trump to continue pushing for a ceasefire.
Iran's Foreign Minister Alaghezi also reiterated that the two-day plan is still valid, but the US must accept conditions such as ending all frontline conflicts, or Iran will respond militarily (Hopefully this time the crypto market won't be under too much pressure).
My view
Although both sides are talking now, it's still early to reach a real agreement. Trump just sent a signal of easing, and the market cooled crude oil prices first, but Iran's conditions are not something that can be solved by just a ceasefire.
The US is still tightening transport restrictions; sanctions on shipping and other frontline issues remain unresolved (The negotiation table is lively, but ships at sea still dare not sail with ease).
BZ: 97.67, -0.64%, once dropped more than $1 in early trading
BTC 74,971, +0.46%, has somewhat recovered from previous lows (When BTC was at 73K today, it felt a bit off)
XAU: 4,124.06, +1.68%, supported by falling oil prices and a weaker dollar
Hopefully
The upcoming negotiations can truly restore navigation through the strait, rather than just another round of verbal easing
#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解 $BTC $BZ $XAU That cut at 6 AM, the whale was sliced clearly.
253 million long positions, 140 million directly liquidated, losing 61.41 million USD.
$ETH accounted for 135 million, just this part lost 48.47 million, $BTC only lost 550,000.
After liquidation, 113 million long positions remain, with an unrealized loss of 12.39 million, ETH liquidation price hanging at 2004, ridiculously close.
Over 1 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, ETH liquidations at 448 million, more than BTC, bulls accounted for 90%.
The A-share market is a completely different picture, commercial aerospace triggered a surge in limit-ups, coal led the rise, half-day turnover directly broke 1 trillion.
US chip stocks are also recovering, AMD up 11%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 4.2%, but the Dow is still in the red.
Leverage was cleared in a round, money didn’t disappear, it just moved to another place.Last night's drop wasn't rooted in the market itself, but in Washington.
According to Reuters, the Democrats took control of the midterm elections, securing both the House and the Senate.
What the market fears now is that when the new Congress takes office in January next year, crypto regulations will tighten.
BTC plunged directly to 73708 late Sunday night, ETH dropped to 2223.
Both are the lowest prices since August.
The CLARITY Act got stuck in the Senate in September.
So now it's like holding your breath again.
But one thing must be made clear: so far, no new law has been passed.
Tightening is expected, not a knife already landed.
On election day, BTC even surged past 80000.
On November 5th, it fell from 80882 to 75573 in one day, wiping out all gains.
Over the weekend, liquidations exceeded 1 billion USD in 24 hours, with longs accounting for over 900 million.
ETH alone had liquidations of 448 million, with the largest single liquidation at 48 million.
Binance showed a sign of easing.
After losing 7 billion USD to theft, today the fund inflow has turned positive.
Withdrawals are also gradually resuming.
The worst panic phase may have already passed.
The market is now hovering around 74646, grinding below 75000.
Above, 77533 is the 50-week moving average; failing to reclaim it remains bearish.
Below, 73200 is the 200-day moving average; last night’s dip to 73510 was supported around here.
If it breaks, next support is at 72000.
My view in one sentence: regulation is a slow variable, scary but not fatal #btc is currently at a critical juncture of weak consolidation and the eve of a directional choice. The price is repeatedly tugging within the narrow range of $73,500 to $76,000#SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI: Can Q2 Earnings Deliver Impressive Results? SoftBank's Q2 net profit was ¥347.3 billion, down 18% year-over-year but more than double the market expectation of ¥166 billion, making the headline figure indeed "impressive." However, a closer look reveals that this performance is almost unrelated to the heavy investment in OpenAI—the valuation of OpenAI remained flat since the end of March, causing the Vision Fund's profits to plunge 99% to ¥5.43 billion. The real support for profits came from Intel's stake, which brought about an unexpected ¥1.3 trillion book gain, an "non-AI" asset hedge.
In other words, SoftBank's cumulative $64.6 billion investment for about 13% ownership in OpenAI was a "static card" in the Q2 earnings, not a growth engine. The market's real question is: when AI valuations no longer rise unilaterally, how will SoftBank fulfill Masayoshi Son's narrative that the "AI revolution scale is 50 times that of the internet bubble"? This earnings report cannot be called "impressive"; it feels more like a passing score on a stress test—numbers pass, but the structure is questionable. This time I'm not bottom-fishing, but I won't fully exit either: keeping a defensive position, waiting for a clear rebound. The news is too crowded, I haven't finished reading the midterm election voting omissions, geopolitical pressure is mounting again, mainstream coins are diving again, $ETH dropped about 200 points in just over ten minutes. Things aren't easy nearby either, US October non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, bets on a December rate hike are heating up; after a sharp drop in US tech stocks, there was some rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%; $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week. No current price or specific position given, I won't pretend to know, guessing hard at this position is easy to get wrong. Let's start with a reality check: the biggest risk for this long position isn't necessarily getting the direction wrong, but that the market might first move against it before moving in the right direction. Core Trader 66 just opened a long HYPE position with 10x leverage, with a nominal position size of about $100,000. My bearish stance isn't because "big players are always wrong," but because the logic of taking this opening notification as bullish evidence is flawed: just because someone is willing to take on risk doesn't mean the timing is advantageous.
I'm stuck on two points. First, path risk: based on nominal position and leverage, the initial margin is roughly $10,000; if the price drops 3% first, the unrealized loss would be about $3,000, which is 30% of that margin, not including fees, and doesn't necessarily reflect the actual account loss ratio. Second, incomplete information: we can't see his other positions or exit plans, so we can't tell if this is an isolated bet. If you chase longs just based on the notification without exit conditions, followers might suffer more than the original position holder when the market moves against them.
Of course, he might be right. I won't assume the longs will lose just because of high leverage. If the price continues to hold above the reference price of $74.7309 and any pullbacks don't quickly break below it, I'll reduce my doubts about the timing of this entry. This is just my observation, not a guarantee of profit. I'll be watching whether the price can support this long position, without letting the wallet's name influence my judgment.An on-chain address spent approximately $19.62 million to purchase 8,773.52 ETH, with an average cost of $2,236.75. The trader associated with this address previously bought 7,543 ETH in March at a cost of $2,048.69. Smart money or just lucky? What makes this transaction notable is not only its scale but also the trading history linked to this address. After buying at $2,048.69 in March, the Ethereum market experienced significant volatility, yet the trader chose to add more around $2,236, demonstrating an accumulation strategy based on conviction rather than short-term speculation. On-chain analysts typically track such wallets to gauge whale sentiment. Although a single address cannot define a trend, a trader who has timed the market accurately and repeatedly buys in may influence retail perception and suggest the value range recognized by smart money. What this transaction means for ETH demand: Ethereum has faced a complex environment in recent months, with Layer 2 growth, staking dynamics, and ETF capital flows all impacting price. A $19.62 million spot purchase is sizable but not enough to move the market alone; however, it reinforces the narrative that long-term holders are willing to accumulate during pullbacks. Cost discipline: The trader’s average costs of $2,048 and $2,236 indicate a preference for buying in the low $2,000 range rather than chasing breakouts. Position size: The second purchase was larger than the first, showing increased confidence or greater capital. Timing: ThisAltcoin season index is about 38–41, far from the altcoin season standard of 75.
BTC market dominance is about 60%, with funds still favoring top assets for defense.
Excluding stablecoins, BTC's share among active risk assets may be close to 64%–66%.
In the past 90 days, only about 25%–35% of altcoins have outperformed BTC.
It is still "Bitcoin season," not a full altcoin season. @山寨阿道夫 $SKHY $SKHYNIX Large sell orders placed! Woke up and found the profits directly in my pocket, who else understands this feeling!
Last week I already said that tech stocks would collectively weaken recently, bottom fishing is not a wise choice, so prioritize short positions, set take profit and stop loss, and leave the rest to time.
How to position today? I still focus on shorting the rebounds. AI storage is really too weak now, no funds are willing to enter and push the price up, the bottom cannot be found below, and it will continue to decline.
Therefore, temporarily do not consider bottom fishing, continue to enter short positions, wait for the rebound to around 860-880 to enter with better cost performance, target at 810.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $SPACE Rocket Lab plans to release its Q3 earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes and hold a conference call at 5 PM Eastern Time;
I will focus on four key points:
Whether revenue meets the mid-point or above of guidance, especially the project delivery and revenue recognition pace of the space systems business.
Whether gross margin and losses improve: revenue growth does not equal improved profit quality; we need to look at gross margin, expenses, and cash flow.
Whether the backlog can convert into revenue: Q2 disclosed a backlog of $2.36 billion, but backlog does not mean immediate revenue recognition, nor is it a profit guarantee. (investors.rocketlabcorp.com)
The new timeline, costs, and cash burn of Neutron: this may impact the market's long-term valuation of the company more than a slight beat in quarterly revenue.
Neutron progress: the direction is still moving forward, but the timeline has clearly been pushed back.
My judgment: the company's fundamentals are attractive, but before the earnings report, it is not suitable to treat it as a low-risk "earnings trade." The earnings report will focus on revenue and cash flow; the real valuation watershed remains whether Neutron can turn the "2027 target" into verifiable engineering progress. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Conclusion first: The water level of the crypto market is dropping. The total supply of stablecoins across the network is $292.98 billion, down $13.67 billion (-4.5%) from $306.65 billion a month ago, and down $4.69 billion from a week ago. $USDT alone decreased by $7.20 billion (from $184.00 billion to $176.80 billion), and $USDC decreased by $2.47 billion. The total market cap on CoinGecko is $2.47 trillion, down 5.8% in 24 hours, with $BTC accounting for 60.2%.
Where did the money go? It wasn’t eaten by coins; people are withdrawing. CoinDesk’s headline yesterday was accurate: stablecoin market cap remains steady, but the money inside is moving; bloomingbit reported on-chain payment volume jumped 45%—real usage is increasing, but new money is shrinking. According to 24/7 Wall St and Cryptonews, the market shrank by $5 to $6.7 billion in one week, the steepest drop this year.
For your wallet: when the stock shrinks, leverage is the first to be squeezed out. Today, 197 coins fell, 44 rose, with the median decline at -3.19%. During a period of falling water levels, don’t bet on direction; watch the water level first.
How much $USDT do you still hold? $ETH has pulled back for three consecutive days. Can the bulls hold this time?
Recently, Ethereum's trend has indeed been a bit torturous. The short-term selling pressure hasn't fully released, and the price once dropped to around 2050, but then rebounded and has now returned above 2130.
My view is that there is some support around 2050 for now, but it's too early to declare the bottom has appeared.
From the market perspective, after the earlier rebound, the trapped positions above and the bottom-fishing funds below are competing, and market sentiment is clearly still unstable.
Technically, there is no particularly clear reversal signal yet. The sustainability of buying pressure remains to be seen, and chasing the rally rashly in the short term is not worthwhile.
My approach going forward is simple: no rush to guess the bottom, first see if the rebound can hold, then observe if there is capital support on the pullback.
What the market fears most is not the drop itself, but being repeatedly driven by emotions before the direction is confirmed. Be patient and wait for signals before taking action! $BTC $SNDK #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ On November 6, the U.S. Treasury took action. FinCEN ordered U.S. financial institutions to prohibit fund transfers involving MEXC, determining that from May 2021 to May 2026 it handled at least $16 billion related to sanction evasion and cybercrime.
MEXC stated that deposits, withdrawals, and trading are normal and that it is reviewing the order. But cutting off the dollar channel is not a fine; it is blocking it from the U.S. financial system. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it bluntly: access to the dollar system means supporting the Iranian regime.
The path was already laid out. In November 2023, Binance settled for over $4.3 billion, CEO Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty and resigned, and accepted five years of compliance supervision.
The door is not closed because there is still business behind it. Binance partnered with Circle to expand $USDC usage, MGX invested $2 billion and settled in $USD1, and in March 2026, the Intercontinental Exchange invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation and obtained board seats.
Pleading guilty, bringing in U.S. partners, changing market access—compliance is a series of concrete arrangements. MEXC stands at a crossroads: let compliance have the power to block some revenue, or stay outside the system. It is worth considering, when the dollar stablecoin becomes the only high-quality incremental asset, is a platform that refuses to bow out squeezed out of the mainstream, or does it have another way to survive?The weekend calm in crypto looks less like stability and more like a coiled spring. $BTC is holding near 75913, yet the four-hour long/short ratio has settled around 3.0. That combination matters: a sharp selloff failed to shake out retail buyers, who are still adding and holding. When the truck is this heavy, there is no fuel for a clean rally. Range-bound price action is the bait, not the reward. $ETH tells a similar story with a different texture. At 2238, it is pinned above the 2200 line, un#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 This is not a "short squeeze followed by a big rally" scenario, but rather a stalemate of a "bear trap shape combined with bulls not yet dead".
A true short squeeze bottom usually comes with negative funding rates, a sharp drop in long positions, and active buying volume. None of these three conditions are met right now. If the 75500 level is pierced again, it may not trigger the "last shakeout" but could be the second round of liquidation of long leverage positions that have not yet been cleared.
Before the funding rate turns negative or the price recovers above 76210 (the 1-hour long-short boundary) and holds, treating every lower wick as a "short squeeze" to buy is betting on having more patience than the market, not being smarter than the market. Open the chart and keep observing these indicators continuously.
$BTC $ETH $SOL “About 35 ETH” was swapped for ZEC. I first consider the worst-case scenario: if a single swap is misinterpreted as a signal for the privacy track, after the hype dies down, those who follow the narrative might bear the drawdown alone. According to OnchainLens monitoring, this address withdrew ETH from Tornado Cash, then sold part of the ETH via Hyperliquid and bought ZEC.
⚠️ I tend to view this as just an address behavior, not evidence of a positive signal for the privacy track. There are two layers of risk: the fund flow does not equal trading motive, we don’t know why the swap happened; a single address buying cannot prove sustained demand afterward. Filling these two blanks with optimistic assumptions easily leads to uncontrolled risk exposure.
My habit in risk control is: first write down the maximum loss possible per trade, including potential slippage, and don’t treat news as a risk budget. When encountering such address swap news, how much stop loss do you usually set per trade? Do you tighten it compared to usual?Facing the same macro uncertainty, why is gold rising while BTC struggles to gain?
This might be the most thought-provoking question in the current market.
On November 9, spot gold rose about 1.4%, returning to around $4130. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell about 4.47% over the previous week, and the post-election rebound failed to hold.
The divergence between the two assets indicates the market is not simply buying in or withdrawing across the board.
Gold's rise has clearer macro support: falling oil prices ease inflation concerns, a weaker dollar, and the market readjusts expectations for interest rates and future monetary policy.
BTC is different; it remains highly influenced by risk appetite.
As investors begin to reassess tech stock valuations, AI capital expenditures, and economic outlooks, BTC, as a highly volatile asset, easily becomes a target for reducing risk exposure.
Another detail: a price rebound does not equal capital inflow.
True capital inflow requires improved spot trading volume, sustained net inflows into ETFs, and increasing active buying during the price rise.
So, for now, I tend to interpret the current market as:
Gold has gained some defensive allocation demand, while BTC remains in a cautious capital phase, waiting for directional confirmation.
This does not mean Bitcoin has lost value, nor that gold will keep rising indefinitely.
If gold continues to be strong and BTC’s rebound keeps shrinking in volume, the divergence in capital preference between the two assets may persist.
What the market lacks now is not a rebound, but capital willing to keep buying. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion in a single week, which is not an isolated event but a clear signal of a shift in institutional capital rhythm. Bitcoin products experienced a weekly outflow of $1.28 billion, wiping out and turning negative the cumulative net inflow for this year; Ethereum products have had net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a larger cumulative scale and a redemption intensity relative to their managed size significantly higher than Bitcoin's.
BlackRock's IBIT has dominated outflows on the Bitcoin side for several consecutive days, with most redemptions on the Ethereum side also contributed by BlackRock's funds. This appears more like a concentrated portfolio adjustment by large holders rather than retail sentiment-driven. Meanwhile, other crypto-related products showed differentiated performance, but mainstream BTC and ETH channels faced simultaneous pressure, indicating a cross-asset risk appetite contraction rather than a simple BTC/ETH rotation.
The impact on price lies in liquidity and expectations. ETF net outflows directly correspond to increased spot supply, combined with overall cautious market trading and sentiment, which tends to amplify volatility. Historical experience shows that after institutional capital phases out, if the macro environment does not further deteriorate, a recovery window often appears; however, the current consecutive weekly negative values have lasted a long time, and recovery requires clearer catalysts.
What the market needs to focus on now is whether the outflow pace is beginning to converge, whether redemptions in leading products are slowing, and whether spot absorption and on-chain data show improvement. The institutional channel's shift from "continuous net buying" to "phased net selling" has already changed the previous supply-demand narrative. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
Tomorrow night at 9:30, the US October CPI will be released. The market expects an overall month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a core month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both slightly lower than the previous values, indicating that the inflation cooling scenario is halfway written.
However, last Friday's non-farm payrolls did not cooperate at all: 165,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, with the previous two months revised upward by a total of 84,000. With employment this hot, the Federal Reserve has much less reason to ease.
The market is now very conflicted, on one hand betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is close to 80%, while on the other hoping the CPI will provide a way out. This data is that way out; whether it lands solidly or misses makes a big difference.
If both numbers meet or even fall below expectations, the rate hike bets will cool down, giving gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin some breathing room; if both exceed expectations, that 80% figure will likely rise, and risk assets will have to stay on high alert.
Another detail worth noting: because last October's data is missing, the year-on-year reading cannot be published this time, so the market can only focus on the month-on-month figures for judgment, which may cause greater volatility than usual.
No rush to take sides tonight; wait for the numbers to land before making a move, keeping bullets ready for the boots to drop.
The market never rewards those who guess earliest, only those who wait most steadily.