Orbit Post Sitemap
Brothers, next week is the FOMC, and the market now almost unanimously expects a pause (probability over 90%). But don’t get too happy too soon; "pause" does not mean "giving out candy." There are three variables to watch closely:
First, oil prices. Brent crude is still holding above 110. Any slight stir in the Middle East keeps inflation sticky. The Fed can hold steady, but it can’t pretend inflation is already solved.
Second, Wash’s speech. The market’s expectation for a December rate hike has already reached 67%. If he leans hawkish at the press conference, US Treasury yields will spike, and the crypto market will get hit again. If he leans dovish, the 80,000 level might be a short-term iron bottom.
Third, hawkish dissenting votes. Watch people like Harker closely. If the decision includes dissenting votes supporting a rate hike, that’s an early signal for a December hike.
A couple of words: BTC is currently struggling around 86,000, with 82,500 as the short-term lifeline—if it breaks, look for 70,000; on the upside, 87,000 is a strong ceiling. The current strategy is: don’t chase shorts, don’t blindly bottom-fish, wait for the news to settle and see how the main players shake out the market.
Brothers, do you think after the news drops BTC will take off or get smashed first? Let’s chat in the comments👇
$BTC $ETH $IRYS
#OctoberFOMCApproaching What variables remain for the Fed’s pause on rate hikes? I expect to be very busy next week, so let's talk about some miscellaneous things this week.
First, the altcoin market has recently seen many speculative coins. From what I've observed, they are all pure Ponzi schemes strongly controlled by the manipulators, with price movements almost entirely controlled. In my experience, if the manipulators want to go against you, you are almost guaranteed to fail. However, the price trends are relatively predictable. I won't mention specific coins to avoid riding traffic here. My personal advice is to avoid playing with them; after the pump-and-dump, short squeeze arbitrage, and chasing the long positions, almost everyone gets wiped out.
Next is the $BTC Bitcoin trend. It has reached the 80,000 level again. In the short term, there is a chance it will hold here. According to a rather traditional structural analysis method, the current bullish structure has not been broken yet, so you can try entering the market again. The risk-reward ratio is good (if the purple line breaks, I don't recommend entering). The short-term signal is also shown in Figure 1, indicating an entry opportunity.
For the mid-term elections, we can be sure there will be many fake news and market manipulations. I'm not very confident about the trend. (Don't believe any definitive statements; both bulls and bears have prepared corresponding news and will release whatever they want.)
The US stock market $SPY, semiconductors, storage, and AI sectors are performing very poorly. You can clearly see a double top pattern (see Figures 2 and 3). Don't try to bottom-fish here; it's a classic trap to cut retail investors. Wait for at least a period of bullish candles before considering entry... (Someone in the group discussed this a week ago as a warning; now I'm reminding again, although it's a bit late).$BTC At this time tonight, the most worth watching is not the candlestick chart, but the 10% in interest rate futures.
The market only gives a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. But the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points increase in December is 75% or higher. These conflicting numbers make traders not even believe themselves.
I was watching 80100 all morning, and the trading volume was less than 80% of usual. The price did drop, but no one really dumped. Now sitting on the couch watching the market, the price is touching around 80,600, and the volume is still half-dead, confirming what I said this morning — this kind of drop means no one is really selling, it's just that no one is buying.
What's interesting is the macro side. Previously, everyone hoped for rate cuts and a bad economy, because only when the economy is bad can there be easing. Now the economy is strong, and the Fed has the confidence to keep tightening. A good economy doesn't mean crypto is good; experienced traders have suffered losses from this before. $BTC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Although the market predicts a pause in rate hikes in October (over 80%), the crypto space's liquidity turning point still requires caution regarding four major variables:
💡 Secondary inflation pressure: Oil prices and service sector inflation remain sticky, making macro liquidity unlikely to ease in the short term.
💡 Hawkish Pause: If Powell hints at a rate hike in December, risk assets will face a secondary repricing shock.
💡 US Treasury yield squeeze: High risk-free rates continue to divert capital from the crypto market, putting altcoin liquidity under pressure.
💡 US stock/crypto correlation: Repeated rate hike expectations can easily trigger short-term high-leverage liquidation cascades.
💡 Trading approach: Don’t just focus on "whether there will be a hike in October"; pay attention to the tone of the press conference. If hawkish signals are released, guard against liquidity pullbacks in BTC and high-beta altcoins. $ETH $BTC That suggests capital hasn't disappeared at the same pace as speculative volume.
The challenge now is turning that capital into sustainable usage instead of relying on the next memecoin wave.
Tokenized equities and other RWAs could become a stronger foundation, especially given Robinhood's existing retail distribution and financial infrastructure.
With its October 27 earnings call approaching, I'm watching for signs that Robinhood can convert its massive user base into real onchain demand.For context, Solana is generating roughly $4M in daily app revenue, with $5.8B in DeFi TVL compared to Robinhood Chain's $1.138B.
Pons, one of the chain's biggest growth drivers, has also seen revenue fall to around $35K to $55K daily. That is a major cooldown from the explosive activity that briefly put it ahead of established launchpads like Pump .fun
But I wouldn't write the chain off just yet.
The more important detail is that TVL has held up better than trading activity.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix will release Q3 results on the 28th. Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin reaching 78%, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, supported by HBM4 volume growth and DRAM price increases.
Bernstein estimates Samsung's HBM revenue this quarter at about $8.7 billion, already surpassing SK's $7.6 billion. Rubin's delays have pushed shipments back, and there are reports that backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year.
The profit figures look good, but the real focus should be on actual HBM4 shipments and yield rates; catching up in market share is the next challenge.I have a small habit when calculating my position size: for coins that move up and down together, I group them to see how much they occupy, rather than allocating limits by coin name separately. Especially for coins within the same narrative, each individual position might not be large, but combined they could be quite heavy. I used to think that switching to a different coin was diversification, like changing a variable name in code and calling it a new feature. Now, when I want to add a coin to my watchlist and also buy it, I have to check my holdings page first—why is it always the same group again?This sharp drop is not due to internal issues within the crypto circle, but because global liquidity is being indiscriminately drained!
Spot gold has fallen below 4000, and French government bond yields have hit a 24-year high. What does this mean? It means that safe-haven assets and traditional bond markets are both experiencing severe turbulence. Wall Street funds are withdrawing from all high-volatility assets to cope with uncertainty.
The crypto market is under pressure simultaneously. In the past 24 hours, there have been liquidations totaling 490 million across the network, with long positions accounting for 350 million. Nearly 200,000 people have been forcibly liquidated, and Binance's largest single ETH liquidation exceeded 4.77 million USD. This is not simply a technical correction but a massive leverage liquidation triggered by external macro resonance. Long positions are too crowded, and even a slight drop causes a chain reaction of stampedes.
On the funding side, although ETFs are seeing moderate inflows, they cannot hold the bottom against the huge selling pressure from derivatives.
Practical insight: Before the macro environment stabilizes, do not blindly try to bottom-fish on the left side. This round of adjustment is not over yet; wait for the FOMC to fully conclude and provide direction before considering entry.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 #法国国债收益率创24年新高，债市风险会否外溢？ $BTC $ETH $XAU Lying in bed, I glanced at the overall market data and it hit hard. I stared at these numbers and couldn't recover; winners and retail investors are standing on completely opposite sides.
First, let's look at the three major mainstream coins: BTC is hovering around 80,750, down 1.03%, but positions increased by 0.23% to 54.171 billion. ETH is moving near 2,369, down 1.15%, with positions shrinking by 1.01% to 30.814 billion. SOL is grinding around 101.63, down 2.70%, with positions shrinking by 0.45%, leaving only 6.344 billion.
The winners' numbers are even more striking 😮, on a 24-hour basis: long positions 140 million, short positions 2.98 billion, shorts account for 95%. On a 7-day basis: longs 255 million, shorts 3.21 billion, shorts account for 93%. This morning, same basis: longs 299 million, shorts 1.90 billion, shorts account for 86%, with shorts up 57% and longs down 53% in 8 hours.
Comparing to retail investors' performance, the whole network blew up 494 million in one day, up 48.42%, with longs liquidated by 353 million, accounting for 71.4%, and shorts only liquidated 142 million. The largest single liquidation was still an ETH long, 4.77 million at 2,368.
To be clear, this is just a sample of the top 100 winners. On down days, winners naturally lean bearish, so this can't be equated with the entire market being bearish. But putting the two sets of numbers together is very straightforward: winners are profiting on the short side, retail investors are buying on the long side, and the position difference is today's biggest divergence 😬.
BTC account numbers: 54 long, 174 short.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The OKX earnings season is heating up this week, and my core prediction logic is simple: don't blindly trust paper data; the macro environment is the real driver.
For example, SK Hynix—I directly bet that the stock won't rise after the earnings report (buy No).
The reason is straightforward: with interest rate hike and cut expectations looming, the market is steadily declining every day, and funds are seeking safety.
Looking at the semiconductor industry's real situation, leaders like Micron and SanDisk are weak, and China's ChangXin Technology has evaporated trillions in market value. Simply put, there is overcapacity and weak demand now.
Without substantial demand support, no matter how good the earnings data looks, the market will ultimately reject it.
I applied the same logic to on-chain points contracts.
I was bearish on SpaceX all along and profited following the market; conversely, I went against the trend to bottom-fish and go long on gold, only to get stuck. This again proves that going against the macro trend often leads to losses.
Currently, I earned a 10U reward for this week's prediction, ranking 597th.
Looking at the newly released Gameweek leaderboard, a 41% return still hasn't made the list; there are too many experts this week, with 4 days left to keep pushing!
In summary: pay more attention to the market and interest rate hikes or cuts; following the trend is the hard truth.
@OKX星球 ETH whale sells another 3,000 coins, OG secures profits
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, ETH OG with a cost as low as $18.82 continues to sell 3,000 coins, with expected cumulative profits exceeding $15.74 million. The associated address 0xa4c…F02D0 recharged 3,000 ETH (approximately $7.23 million) to Kraken 10 hours ago. The timing of the position opening, source of funds, and recharge method all match previously tracked addresses. If belonging to the same entity, it is suspected to have sold 6,000 ETH since August 2025, totaling about $15.85 million, with an average recharge price of $2,642.42 and a return rate exceeding 139 times.
Low-cost chips continue to flow to exchanges, short-term selling pressure should be noted; however, whale profit-taking does not equal a trend reversal. The key lies in the actual sell orders after recharging and the market's absorption.ETFs appear to be buying on the surface, but the market is crashing—who is frantically dumping?
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $490 million, with long positions accounting for $350 million, and 196,000 people directly wiped out. The worst part is that despite ETF funds showing net inflows, the market was still smashed through.
This reveals a harsh truth: the mild inflows from ETFs are nowhere near enough to fill the huge selling pressure pit in the derivatives market. Earlier, long leverage was too crowded, and too many chased highs. The main players at this point are exploiting the divergence in capital flows to selectively clear out these high-leverage longs. BTC liquidations exceeded $95 million, ETH liquidations exceeded $63 million—these are all bloodied chips.
Looking externally, AI chip stocks are weakening, tech stocks are having valuation cuts, and hot money is fleeing faster than rabbits.
Practical trading insight: longs have just been bloodied; jumping in now to catch falling knives is just giving your head away. Watch closely if ETF funds can increase volume; if inflows remain mild like this, the market will continue to bottom out. Before the FOMC, keep your hands off.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 $BTC $ETH Mainstream coins under liquidation squeeze: which side will break short-term first
BTC, ETH, and SOL are currently squeezed between two liquidation zones above and below, with prices closer to the long liquidation line below. A slight short-term pullback could trigger concentrated liquidations.
Looking below, BTC's largest long liquidation is at 79786.1U, with a liquidation volume of 36.0328 million U, only -0.91% from the current price; ETH at 2352.1U, liquidation volume 17.3226 million U, -0.48% away; SOL at 101.02U, liquidation volume 3.7034 million U, -0.39% away. Among the three, ETH and SOL's lower liquidation zones are especially close to the current price, leaving very little room for pullback tolerance.
Above is the short pressure zone. BTC's largest short liquidation is at 82273.98U, liquidation volume 42.3178 million U, +2.18% from the current price; ETH at 2400.35U, liquidation volume 17.6441 million U, +1.56% away; SOL at 103.09U, liquidation volume 3.3562 million U, +1.64% away. The short liquidation zones are a bit farther, but once broken through, stop-loss orders may accelerate the release.
Overall, the market is in a "close below, distant above" liquidation structure: downward movement is more likely to trigger long liquidations first, while upward movement requires stronger momentum to reach the dense short zone. In the short term, if the price breaks below the liquidation level, a quick spike down may occur; if it holds and pushes up to the upper liquidation level, a short-covering rally may happen. Currently, it is more suitable to focus on reactions after key level breakouts rather than betting on direction prematurely.$ZEC
ZEC is having a rough day: in 24 hours it dropped from 1258 to 1141. I pulled OKX spot price at 1160 tonight, down nearly 6%, Binance's low was 1141.72, almost the same as OKX.
The positions side is even more interesting. Coinotag statistics show that the total network OI dropped by 12.45% in 24 hours, OKX perpetual positions are now at $131 million, with leverage rapidly being cleared. The fee rate is still positive at 0.0001, retail investors haven't switched to short.
There are two pieces of news. One is the NU7 upgrade around November 5th; the old pattern is that funds always pre-position before and after upgrades; the other is that the 2746 ZEC stolen from Bitget was transferred into a shielded pool, making its on-chain flow untraceable.
The expectation of the upgrade combined with the shadow of the theft, I prefer to see this sell-off as a leverage cleanup. If you really want to buy in, wait until OI and price stabilize together; it's pointless to catch a falling knife now.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC
I just said two hours ago that I was leaning towards the ETF side, but the data on Thursday slapped me in the face: the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $635.6 million, the largest single day since June 25, returning about 60% of the $1.07 billion inflow from the previous three days.
Breaking it down, IBIT outflow was $254 million, FBTC $217.5 million, ARKB $109 million, mainstream funds are all withdrawing. The cumulative total for October has therefore turned negative, about -$176 million. However, on a weekly basis, there was still a net inflow of $443 million, with buying in the first three days of the week.
I casually pulled the market data: OKX current price 80,775, 24-hour high 82,047, low 80,390, Binance low point 80,404, both matching. Fee rate 0.01%, perpetual positions $2.47 billion, no obvious shrinkage.
When money flows in, the price doesn't move; when money flows out, the price doesn't crash either, still stuck between those two Bitwise lines. This time I'm not in a hurry to change my stance; one day of ETF red candles doesn't indicate direction, but if 80,000 really can't hold, I admit it.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Mainstream Coin Traps: BTC Longs Liquidated for $440M, ETH Whales Accumulate but Price Stalls, SOL Upgrade Launch Backfires
The top three mainstream coins on the heat chart are telling three completely different contradictory stories
$BTC: Fell over 3% in 24 hours. After failing to break through the 84,800-85,000 resistance, it quickly retreated, briefly dropping below 81,000. $441 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 90%. 80,000 is the key support level that has repeatedly provided buy orders; holding it could form a double bottom, breaking it would open the way to lower levels.
$ETH: The decline was about 1.3 percentage points worse than BTC. The contradiction lies in the fact that whales are accumulating, with 133 addresses increasing holdings by over 426,000 ETH, and staking hitting a record high of 43.8 million ETH. However, the RSI is only 42, indicating bearish momentum still dominates. A break above 2,400 is needed to talk about recovery; breaking below would test 2,300.
$SOL: The Alpenglow upgrade went live overnight, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, yet the price dropped 2.4%. A typical case of good news already priced in. The 95-100 range is the last demand zone; breaking below it opens downside space.
Summary: For BTC, watch if 80,000 holds; for ETH, watch the 2,400 support and when whale accumulation turns into buying pressure; for SOL, watch the 95-100 defense line. The "news" on the heat chart often makes it easier for people to buy into rallies when good news hits than with less popular coins.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ SNDK at $1240, are you bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife?
3 days countdown to the earnings report, your finger hovers over "Buy"—is this trade bottom-fishing AI storage, or handing your head to Wall Street?
Hold on before you click.
Look at the candlestick: from the June high of 2354, it has been smashed down to 1240, a 47% retracement. 30-day drop of 30%, 7-day drop of 5%, still slowly declining in the last 24 hours.
Some in the group shout "AI storage is forever the god," while others quietly share liquidation screenshots.
First thing: AI's meat is in data centers, your meat is on liquidation orders
SanDisk is a top global NAND flash supplier. AI data centers need storage and computing, NAND demand is exploding. Last quarter revenue surged 372% YoY, gross margin hit over 70%, data center revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter. TrendForce says NAND will still rise in 2026.
Is the fundamental strong? Yes.
TTM PE only 17x, forward estimates partly 5-6x, analyst target price midpoint 1800-2200, some call for 3000+.
But the painful truth—
The stronger the fundamentals, the fiercer the earnings night.
On October 29 earnings, company guides revenue $10.3-10.8B, +357% YoY, EPS 44-46 cents. Market expectations are maxed out.
Beat expectations, price may recover to 1400-1600; miss expectations, or if data center guidance is a bit soft, a further 20-30% drop is not a scare.
Heavy bets before earnings are not investing, they are paying market makers' fees.
Second thing: A 47% drop is not cheap, the market is asking if you dare to catch a falling knife
Now at 1240, right at strong support of 1200-1230—near the 200-day moving average, previous lows, and 30-day low at 1232.
RSI daily near 30, oversold, with rebound momentum. MACD bearish but momentum weakening.
Sounds like an opportunity?
But you must see clearly: daily/weekly charts have broken the ascending channel, forming lower highs. Short term is oversold in a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
Resistance above: 1280-1300, then 1350-1400, and further up 1500+.
Support below: 1200-1230. If broken, next stop 1100-1150.
Oversold can get more oversold, support is meant to be broken—until it really holds.
Third thing: Macro is draining liquidity, AI bubble talk is fermenting
CPI about 3.7%, inflation is on the hot side. Fed meeting on October 27-28, hawkish stance continues to pressure high-valuation tech stocks.
AI financing costs rise, big players like Meta have free cash flow pressure highlighted, semiconductor sector overall retracts.
SNDK has contract lock-in and shortage logic, relatively resilient, but it has high Beta, when it falls it won’t talk fundamentals.
Bull vs bear, you decide
On one side:
Structural explosion in AI data center NAND demand
Revenue +372% YoY, gross margin 70%+, net cash
Long-term contracts lock future revenue
Valuation not expensive relative to growth, most analysts buy
RSI oversold, strong support at 1200-1230
On the other side:
47% retracement from ATH, trend still bearish
Earnings expectations extremely high, miss means double hit
Fed may be hawkish, semiconductor sector under pressure
Tokenized perpetuals have poor post-market liquidity, prone to spikes
Memory cycle attribute not gone, ASP peak is a landmine
Trading strategy
Before earnings (1-5 days):
Around 1240 try light long positions, stop loss 1180-1200, target 1280-1320, must reduce or exit before earnings.
If breaks 1200 with volume, no add-ons, switch to short or wait, watch below 1150.
After earnings (1-4 weeks):
Bias to long but wait for confirmation.
If earnings beat, data center guidance strong, gross margin stable, confirm reversal then add, target 1400-1600 or higher.
If guidance weak or macro worsens, don’t catch, wait for 1100-1150 or lower.
Long term (quarterly level):
AI storage shortage logic intact, contract lock-in + high cash flow is the bottom.
But scale in gradually, don’t go all in. If you can’t handle volatility, you won’t get the meat of the AI mega cycle.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2022—
Everyone knows AI is the future, but the stock price first halved, then halved again, then finally rose back.
Knowing the direction is right doesn’t mean you can endure that 47% drawdown.
The market always rewards the patient, punishes those who gamble on earnings night.
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Trading business growth not only continued but accelerated; new businesses (prediction markets, Bitstamp) also delivered incremental results beyond expectations. Overall performance fully exceeded Wall Street expectations, but the stock price still fell in after-hours trading following the earnings release, reflecting market doubts about the sustainability of high growth.
Trading Business: Significant Acceleration in Growth
Q3 trading revenue surged 129% year-over-year to $730 million, a substantial leap from Q2's 32% year-over-year growth rate:
· Options: Revenue of $304 million, up 50% year-over-year, the largest source of income.
· Cryptocurrency: Revenue of $268 million, up over 300% year-over-year, mainly driven by Bitstamp consolidation and active trading, but slightly below some analysts' expectations.
· Stocks: Revenue of $86 million, up 132% year-over-year.
New Business Increment: Prediction Markets as the Biggest Highlight
· Prediction Markets: Q3 trading volume reached 2.3 billion contracts, doubling quarter-over-quarter; October monthly trading volume already hit 2.5 billion contracts, exceeding the entire Q3 total. Annualized revenue surpassed $100 million in less than a year, becoming the fastest business line in the company to reach this milestone.
· Bitstamp: After acquisition completion in June, fully consolidated in Q3, contributing about $100 million in annualized revenue combined with prediction markets.
· Robinhood Gold: Subscription users reached 3.9 million, up 77% year-over-year, driving other revenues to double. I’m not bearish on storage this cycle, but I’m also not rushing to call for a doubling.
First, the consensus: AI training and inference push data volumes to the sky, and cold and warm data ultimately have to land on NAND; edge AI makes phones, PCs, and cars start from 128G and move up to 512G; if HBF really lands, it will be the second layer of video memory for AI accelerator cards. There’s almost no dispute on the demand side— the more humans develop, the more data they store.
But high demand doesn’t equal high stock prices. Storage is the most typical "demand grows every year, stock prices are a roller coaster" industry. In 2018 and 2022, demand was rising but prices crashed first because none of the five or six big manufacturers wanted to cut production first.
So SanDisk’s valuation depends not on demand but on two things:
1. Whether the market is willing to revalue it from a "cyclical stock" to an "AI storage stock." It’s the world’s only pure NAND play with the greatest elasticity; the BiCS joint venture with Kioxia secures cost control; enterprise SSD plus HBF shifts sales from chips to solutions.
2. Whether Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changcun’s capacity expansions will get out of control again. This is the most sensitive early sign of a cycle peak.
My approach: the long-term logic holds, and I manage position size according to the cycle table. I watch three signals—monthly NAND contract price month-over-month, major manufacturers’ capex, and quarterly gross margin slope.
Are you treating it as a ten-year holding or playing it as the elasticity of this cycle?Is Elon Musk now paying 8%–9% interest just to borrow money to buy chips? $SPCX is negotiating a $40 billion financing deal to purchase Nvidia chips through a special purpose vehicle to support AI business expansion. Names like Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and Pimco have appeared, making the lineup truly prestigious, but the money is not cheap at all.
Some of the previously discussed yields on subordinated debt were already in the 8%–9% range, and now with fluctuations in the AI market, investors want to renegotiate the price.
What does $40 billion mean? Assuming an 8.5% interest rate across the board, that's $3.4 billion in interest per year. Of course, the actual financing may be divided into different tranches, so it can't be calculated directly like this, but this cost of capital is already quite frightening.
I've always acknowledged Musk's influence. Whenever he casually talks about space AI or data centers, the market is willing to give astonishing valuations. SpaceX indeed has technology and business; there's no need to deny that. But when will these AI projects actually recoup their investments?
Especially this time, they are considering putting the debt off the balance sheet, partly to maintain SpaceX's own credit rating. The debt not being directly on the company's balance sheet doesn't mean the economic risk disappears.
Normally, the better the financing terms, the stronger the company's negotiating position. Now even Musk's projects have to face such high subordinated debt yields, making it hard for me to remain blindly optimistic about the entire AI capital expenditure cycle.
I remain bearish on SPCX. Musk can convince investors about stories ten years from now, but creditors want to receive interest payments on time every year.$DOGE vs $HYPE : Two Crowded Short Trades
Both assets face bearish pressure, but their positioning reveals different risks.
DOGE shorts are sitting on substantial profits, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control.
HYPE looks more interesting. Short exposure is nearly 12 times larger than longs, creating significant squeeze potential.
My view: DOGE remains structurally weak, while HYPE could experience a sharper reversal if buying momentum returns.
The bigger the short concentrationIs borrowing money this expensive for Musk now? Some debt interest rates are talked up to 8%–9%, and I really don't quite understand it.
$SPCX is preparing a $40 billion financing round to buy Nvidia chips to develop AI, and they even set up a special purpose vehicle to keep the debt off the books, trying not to affect their investment-grade rating.
Goldman Sachs and Apollo are in talks, and Pimco might also participate. But after a recent shakeup in the AI market, investors started complaining that the previously discussed interest rates weren't high enough and are preparing to renegotiate.
I just wonder, isn't Musk's influence big enough now? SpaceX, Tesla, Starlink—any of these names alone would attract investors. Yet when it comes to borrowing $40 billion, creditors still have to calculate carefully.
I've been bearish on SPCX for a while, and this is why. Musk is great at storytelling, and many of his stories actually come true, so the market is especially willing to give valuations in advance.
But the speed at which AI is burning money now is just crazy, right? The chips haven't even been bought yet, and who dares to guarantee that future revenues can cover the financing costs?
Especially this off-balance-sheet financing operation—it just doesn't sit well with me. The debt can be placed under whichever entity they design, but ultimately someone has to pay it back.
Now I'm even less interested in chasing SPCX at a high price. Musk's appeal is indeed strong, but I always feel the market has already paid for several years of his future stories in advance.
If someday AI capital expenditures start to cool down, these highly valued stocks will probably be the fastest to run.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Q3 Earnings: Will It Exceed Expectations?
Conclusion: Operating profit exceeded expectations, but revenue slightly missed forecasts
Operating Profit: Actual 11.38 trillion KRW, higher than the market estimate of 11.23 trillion KRW, setting a record high (operating margin about 46.5%), a core highlight of consecutive beats
Sales: Actual 24.45 trillion KRW, slightly below the forecast of 24.51 trillion KRW, still a 39% year-on-year increase.
Brief Comment: The slight revenue shortfall was mainly dragged down by weak prices in traditional memory (such as NAND), but strong shipments of high value-added HBM and server DRAM effectively drove overall profit beyond expectations, confirming the market logic of "AI inference demand hedging traditional memory weakness"
HBM4 Core Progress
HBM4 is not only a technological iteration but also SK Hynix's "moat" for maintaining high profitability
Pricing Power Advantage: Negotiations with NVIDIA for HBM4 completed, unit price about $560, over 50% higher than the previous generation HBM3E (about $370), exceeding the industry's previous expectation of $500, demonstrating strong bargaining power
Mass Production and Shipments: HBM4 development completed and mass production started in September, shipments begin in Q4, with full sales expansion in 2026.
Future Profit Guidance: Industry forecasts SK Hynix's HBM business sales to reach 40-42 trillion KRW in 2026, with an operating margin of about 60%, contributing approximately 25 trillion KRW in operating profit from this business alone$BTC The last U.S. midterm election was in November 2022. I recall it was also a bear market then. That cycle saw BTC drop from 69,000 to 15,000. In November, it fluctuated roughly between 17,000 and 20,000. The market only stabilized about half a year later in 2023.
Looking further back for similar times, November 2018 comes to mind. That was also when I accelerated my losses. It was when BTC and ETH both tested new lows again. By early 2019, BTC had dropped 85%, and ETH had fallen 95%.
Going further back, my memory is less clear. November 2014 was during a super bull market for the A-shares and big financial stocks. I’m not sure if that was related to the U.S. midterm elections at the time.
The market is likely influenced by more than one factor. I’m just trying to search for similar scenarios from my trading records to review and see if I can find better ways to respond today $ZEC $DOGE 📉 Market Consolidation or the Calm Before the Next Rally? The first bearish monthly candle after a bear-market bottom can mark an important phase in the market cycle. Historically, markets have often moved through periods of sideways consolidation before establishing their next major trend. What's interesting this time is that these consolidation phases appear to be getting shorter and tighter, with relatively milder volatility compared with previous cycles. 🚀 What to Watch Next: - $BTC : A co#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【ETF Alert】ETF: As of October 23 (partial data, 1 not yet released) net outflow of $137.9 million, outflow for 2 consecutive days, cumulative net outflow nearly $248.7 million over 3 days → Bearish (main basis); ① US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.988% (+4 bps, approaching 5%) + crude oil WTI $103.27 (+3.82%), interest rate and inflation double pressure on risk assets; ② Market BTC $80,602, 24h -1.33%, about -0.08% in the last hour, funding rate +0.01% neutral, ETF outflow aligns with price drop, no bearish dampening; ③ Sentiment turns bearish: foreign media say Bitcoin faces a do-or-die weekend, crash concerns intensify (Beijing 19:05), zeroing theory fermenting, weekend liquidity thin, volatility likely amplified; ④ Swiss Bitcoin ETF launched (Beijing 16:29), marginally bullish but small scale; Geopolitics: USS Washington carrier possibly rearming for action against Iran, increased Balochistan attacks (Beijing 17:32), has pushed oil prices up, tail risk → Net: bearish. Recommendation: Treat as bearish, do not chase rebounds, watch the $80,000 level and whether ETF turns to net inflow, consider switching only if ETF inflow occurs and 10-year yield falls below 4.9%; no change in strategy and allocation.Brothers, the most fatal thing in the crypto circle is never a sudden crash, but the itchy hands and reckless operations under a grinding market!
Currently, BTC is at the critical 80,000 mark. Institutional Wintermute clearly defines the core range: if it effectively breaks below here, the market will follow down to test the 76,000 level; only by standing firm on support again can it have conditions for a recovery rebound. The 87,700 level above is the concentrated cost zone of trapped positions before the New Year, with a pile of floating loss chips, making it a solid strong selling pressure level. Major institutions expect a year-end bullish target of 100,000–125,000, with the premise of holding the core 80,000 range.
My practical approach is very clear: 80,000 is the dual support of ETF cost and the psychological defense line of 80,000, serving as the short-term defensive bottom line. If it holds, expect oscillation and recovery; once broken, never blindly bottom-fish, patiently wait to redeploy at the 76,000 value center. Stick to not chasing highs or guessing bottoms, only trade the right-side confirmed market.
The market is very torn: in the past month, whales have accumulated nearly 90,000 BTC, but ETF funds have continuously flowed out in October. Big money quietly hoards coins while on-exchange channel funds withdraw; the oscillating shakeout is specifically designed to discipline frequent traders and itchy-handed retail investors.
Oscillating declines grind the mind and are the easiest way to lose principal. At this stage, just closely watch the key 80,000 level, control your hands, and quietly wait for the FOMC to deliver a clear direction!
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is just around the corner. On the surface, the market generally expects no change in October, but brothers, take a close look at the underlying data in this chart—there are strong undercurrents beneath the surface.
The latest preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI hit 57.6, with the Manufacturing PMI soaring to 56.0, marking a 53-month high. Even more critical, the increase in corporate selling prices is the fastest since August 2022. What does this mean? It means the U.S. economy is not in recession but rather heating up, and the root of inflation has not been removed.
The community comment at the bottom of the chart hits the nail on the head: "Pause is not a dovish pivot; 92.8% of pricing hides a December rate hike knife, the real signal is in the wording."
The trading strategy in recent days is very clear: before the meeting results are released, absolutely do not heavily bet on a one-sided move. If you hold long positions, take profits during this rebound; if you are out of the market, closely watch the post-meeting statement and capital flows. If Powell (or Waller) comes out hawkish and the market rebound is weak, we will follow the trend to short and take profits on the pullback. Don't be cannon fodder before the news lands; wait until the boot fully drops, then enter to pick up cheap chips. Keep cash in hand and wait for the wind to blow. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The storage sector is split, with Micron and SK Hynix gaining, while SanDisk and Western Digital are hit—why?
On Friday, the storage sector was very divided: Micron closed up 2.46%, SK Hynix's Korean stock rose 4.42%, but SanDisk fell 1.82%, and Western Digital dropped 2.97%.
Simply put, one thing happened: Hynix withdrew Solidigm's US IPO. Once this news came out, the market immediately realized—there won't be a large influx of new capital for NAND expansion, so the oversupply nightmare can take a break.
Micron benefits because it is a major NAND player; with less supply pressure, price expectations stabilize.
What about SanDisk and Western Digital? Western Digital's earnings beat expectations the day before but still got hammered; the market doesn't buy it, worrying whether price increases can sustain and if capital expenditures will rise. SanDisk lacks independent positive catalysts and just follows the sector; if it can't keep up, it falls behind.
You have to watch the earnings schedule closely: Hynix reports Q3 on Wednesday, October 28, and institutions have already raised operating profit forecasts above 76 trillion KRW.
Micron's next earnings report is pending; the last one was at the end of September, so no short-term catalyst. Western Digital just reported; the next wave is expected in January next year.
Directionally, this storage wave is not a broad rally but selective gains. If Hynix's earnings blow out the numbers, Micron is likely to follow up.$XAU BlackRock's statement this time actually provides investors with an analytical framework to "separately consider the long and short term." In the long term, structural issues such as global debt, deficits, and currency depreciation constitute strategic reasons for allocating gold; in the short term, the repeated shifts in monetary policy and interest rates mean that gold prices will not rise in a straight line, and increased volatility is the norm. #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 $BTC is being suppressed around 80,695.7, with $32.26 million long positions liquidated and $15.57 million short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, the longs are taking the hit. The funding rate has dropped from 0.0100% to 0.0034% over three periods, indicating leveraged longs are actively withdrawing. The US-China investment friction has spread to the crypto space, mainly affecting risk appetite. The options market is calm, with DVOL at 37.5, put/call open interest at 0.93, showing no one is paying for large volatility. The put/call volume at 1.20 leans defensive, more like short-term hedging. The judgment is a weak consolidation, the low at 80,404.6 will be repeatedly tested, this news alone cannot drive the direction. The total stablecoin supply is $304.3 billion, a single policy message cannot drain this much liquidity. Bearish breakout condition: break below 80,404.6 with a clear rise in DVOL, indicating the market starts pricing in US-China friction. Bullish breakout condition: funding rate returns above 0.0100%, and contract open interest continues to increase beyond $7.62 billion.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The reason why SK hynix will not exceed earnings expectations this quarter but instead decline is very simple
Right now Wall Street is not focused on "whether it can beat expectations," but rather "how much longer this storage cycle can last." SK hynix is about to release its Q3 2026 report (expected around October 27-28). THE LEDGER HAS A RECEIPT.
Two $75M subscriptions. Roughly 145M new sgBENJI shares. One receiving wallet.
Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money-market fund on XRP Ledger now holds nearly 193M shares, worth approximately $200M at the recorded share price.
One wallet doesn’t necessarily mean one investor. And tokenized fund issuance is not evidence of $XRP buying pressure.
Institutional adoption deserves attention. So does the distinction.
#XRP #RWAMSFT basically drew this chart this afternoon. At 14:00, it was 0.84 lots, 18:00 3.49, 19:00 4.85, 20:00 only 0.09 lots — not a volume contraction, but no one is there.
In nineteen hours, it slid from 526.55 to 523.2, down 3.3 points, without any hour showing resistance. This 3.3-point drop happened on zero volume, which doesn’t mean anyone really wants to sell.
At 21:00 yesterday, 450.74 lots pushed down to 516.8 then pulled back to 521.8 — real money hitting the floor; at 22:00, 245.57 lots pushed it up to 526.2 — real money sealing the ceiling. The price floats between these two points.
Current price 523.2, MA20 524.53.
The first 1H candle at 21:30 is the only one that matters.
$MSFT
Close above 524.53 with volume (≥150 lots), pull back to 523.6~524.0 to go long, stop loss at 522.6, target 526.2, risk-reward 2.0.
Close below 522.8 with volume (≥150 lots), rebound to 523.2~523.6 to go short, stop loss at 524.5, target 521.0 then 518.9, risk-reward 2.2.
522.8~524.5 is a vacuum zone, avoid trading inside it.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)$SNDK is showing how strong fundamentals don’t always protect a stock from a sharp correction.
After closing near $1,238, price remains under pressure following two consecutive down sessions. The AI memory growth story is still compelling: FY2026 revenue rose 175%, while data-center revenue surged 437%
But the market is now testing whether those expectations are already priced in.
With earnings due October 29, $1,215–$1,221 is a key zone to watch. Holding it could support a rebound#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, directly pushing international oil prices to high levels. Many people wonder what the core logic behind this round of price increases is and whether the upward trend can continue.
✅ Core drivers of rising oil prices
First, the risk at key maritime chokepoints is the biggest trigger. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea are global lifelines for crude oil transportation. Recently, oil tankers have been attacked and risks along these routes have increased. The market is trading not just on the risk of oil fields being bombed, but more on the risk of oil not being transported out. Marine insurance premiums have soared, and shipping routes are forced to detour, directly raising oil transportation costs. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to rise. Even if there is no large-scale supply cut at present, capital is preemptively speculating on the possibility of conflict spillover, pricing in risk ahead of time.
Second, low inventories are supporting oil prices. Previously, many countries released large amounts of strategic reserves for emergencies. Now, the space for reserve releases is limited, and many countries are taking the opportunity to replenish stocks, thinning the buffer. Once supply-side disruptions occur, gaps can quickly appear, providing strong bottom support for oil prices.
Third, structural tightness in refined oil products, especially diesel. It’s not just crude oil; some refineries in the Middle East have been impacted. Diesel, as a logistics and industrial essential, is in short supply, driving prices up along the entire energy chain and further boosting crude oil demand expectations.
Fourth, OPEC+ production cuts provide a floor. Oil-producing countries continue to implement production cut agreements, actively tightening supply. This, combined with geopolitical events, forms a double positive, providing fundamental support for oil prices.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Key levels and two scenarios
The range from 80,000 to 81,000 is critical because Glassnode estimates that the average cost for US spot ETF holders is close to 81,000, which is the breakeven point for marginal buyers. Holding this level means the $635 million large outflow on October 22 was just a pullback noise; breaking it means new buyers shift from holding positions to wanting to exit, potentially turning a single-day outflow into a continuous outflow. In the short term, watch if 81,190 to 81,200 can be reclaimed; 80,515 is the short-term defense line, and breaking below it could slide toward 80,000. The order book shows about $3.57 billion worth of long liquidation positions clustered near 80,000. There is a sell wall at 83,000.
Why ETH is still weaker than BTC
Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.18 billion in October, with outflows on 12 of 14 trading days. The funds did not rotate into altcoins but contracted overall. Therefore, ETH’s rebound depends more on a macro shift; relying solely on narrative is difficult. #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 $ETH hit 2351 last night and didn't continue to break lower afterward, which is more worth watching.
On 10/22, I mentioned that if it lost 2384 on the 2-hour chart, the next step would be to watch 2357. Last night it bottomed at 2351, basically following the expected path, so this judgment was correct.
But compared to reaching the target, I'm more concerned about its reaction afterward: it didn't slide down continuously but quickly pulled back. The rest of yesterday mainly ranged between 2351 and 2417, now back around 2365. Looking at BTC's movement during the same period, this wave is indeed strong, at least it hasn't shown unstoppable weakness for now.
However, the weekend's trading volume isn't convincing; in a low-volume environment, it's not easy to either continue dropping directly or reverse immediately. My understanding is that it will grind here first, allowing the previous selling pressure to slowly digest near support, using sideways movement instead of further decline, which is a more reasonable approach.
No need to guess too much later; first, see if it can hold 2392 on the 45-minute chart. Before stabilizing above it, it can only be considered a consolidation after a drop; once it holds, then we can talk about a short-term recovery. Then taking down 2417 will mean this downward pressure is truly reversed, not just another weak rebound.
One more thing not to forget: it is still heavily influenced by BTC. No matter how strong it moves on its own, if BTC suddenly drops, it’s hard for it to be completely independent. So watch 2392 and 2417, but also watch BTC’s condition.
Personal record, not investment advice. Today's price position
BTC is around 80,600, with a 24-hour high of 82,000 and a low of 80,400. The market status is marked as a downtrend, the fear and greed index is neutral, 24-hour trading volume is about $29.5 billion, and the total network hashrate is 562 EH/s. ETH is at $2,373, with a 24-hour range of 2,352 to 2,417, and sentiment is neutral at 51. Compared to around 81,000 in the morning, it ground down further in the afternoon, indicating that support remains weak.
Why is it still weak today? Mainly because of oil prices.
Brent closed near $117, the S&P fell 0.5%, the Dow dropped 1.2%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 5.00%. Ahead of the rate decision, funds accelerated their withdrawal from risk assets. The trigger is Middle East supply risks: the Houthis attacked Saudi facilities and the capital area for the fourth time in two days, Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oilfield was hit by drones, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that illegal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has completely stopped. More troubling is inventory: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 282.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982, and distillate inventories are 9% below the five-year average. Selling reserves seems more like a stopgap measure. Inflation expectations are also rising: the University of Michigan's October one-year consumer inflation expectation rose from 4.6% to 4.7%, and the long-term inflation expectation rose from 3.4% to 3.5%, both the highest since May #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
So far: Analysts expect another record-breaking quarter, with operating profit widely anticipated to approach 77 trillion KRW and a profit margin exceeding 70%, thanks to the full-scale launch of HBM4 shipments for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. But now Wall Street is not focused on "whether it can beat expectations," but rather "how long this memory cycle can last." SK hynix is about to release its Q3 2026 report (expected around October 27-28).
The core driver is that HBM4 officially started supplying Nvidia in Q3, with SK hynix capturing more than half the market share; meanwhile, general DRAM prices have doubled.
However, risks have emerged: Samsung's HBM4 yield has soared to 80%, narrowing the market share gap between the two companies from 37 percentage points at the start of the year to 17 points. Coupled with the Korean won's strengthening affecting exchange rates, Citi has already revised its expectations downward. The European session is winding down, approaching the US session's vanguard, the very moment for Liangshan Marsh to muster its troops.
On the ETH side, among 704 whales, the nominal long-short ratio is 30.52%, with short positions holding 1.05B U and longs only 322M; the short volume is more than three times the visible long. Above, 2684 is the former peak city; Lu Junyi led several charges but couldn't even touch the gate; below, 2350 is the moat of Zhu Family Village, where one can still catch a breath if stepped on, but if breached, it's the path to Pan Tuo Road. Even more interestingly, an institution just deposited 6,000 ETH (14.4M U) into a CEX, and another whale has deposited 70,000 ETH into exchanges over two days—this is no Liangshan hero, but clearly a flea on a drum, sneaking over the wall under the cover of darkness to deliver $ETH.
A single day saw 32,380 BTC, about 2.6B U, flowing into exchanges—the largest daily inflow since April. This momentum is like Qin Ming with his spiked club charging to the front lines, full of momentum. But looking closely, the funding rate has turned negative (8-hour average about -0.0044%), meaning shorts are paying longs—indicating that high-leverage "foot soldiers" have been cleared out, and now it's the strategist Wu Yong laying traps at the front: the shorts are piling up thicker, and once the 80,000 level holds, short covering will be ready-made fuel for a rebound.$BTC
A few words: For ETH, watch if the 2350 Zhu Family Village moat holds or if breaching the "painted gate" continues; for BTC, watch the 80,000 level for support. Crowded shorts are kindling, but the fuse is not in Liangshan's hands, it's in the macro firestarter. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Elon Musk doesn't even want to build towers, Friday sees US telecom tenants crash first as a salute
AT&T fell 7.96% to close at 20.93, nearly 100 million shares traded, double the average volume
T-Mobile dropped 7.71%, Verizon only down 1.19%, volume also doubled
All three tower companies rose on the same day, CCI led with a 9.06% increase
At first, I thought it was just about earnings
Looked at these numbers for a while
The US wireless wall has always been two stacks of bricks: spectrum and towers
SpaceX is not building new on either end
Spectrum was bought from EchoStar in July, AT&T just spent 23 billion on the same company's mid-band
Towers are now leased
AT&T has spent over 60 billion in six years buying spectrum, net leverage rose from 2.68 to 3.13
Morgan Stanley closed out bond trades on Wednesday: deleveraging still no progress
But its Q3 service revenue growth actually reached 3.8%, between zero and two in the past three years
So this cut has nothing to do with performance
A door was opened in the wall
Simply put, no need to tear down the wall, just rent a door to get in
Reports are just talks, no contracts signed
I won't chase on Monday if sentiment recovers
If it stands back at 22.74 with volume shrinking back under 50 million, I'll admit I was wrong
If it breaks below 19.89, it's not over
If CCI or SpaceX deny, I'll accept it
Give it until next Friday's close
For high dividend operators' positions, do you take this cut or dodge it?
$T $TMUS $CCI
#SpaceXTowerLeasing #TradingVoice The afternoon session said 1240~1246.7 is a vacuum zone, unsustainable. Six hours later, half of it was verified: the line broke, but not because of a money smash.
At 17:00, a single order of 5915 lots—only twice the previous 3082—pushed the price from 1238 down to 1233. Meanwhile, the 03:00 smash to 1230 used 54,656 lots. The same four dollars, one spent 54,000, the other less than 6,000. On the thin side, big money isn’t needed.
Now at 1237.5, MA20 at 1242.9 pressing down by 5.4. Starting at 18:00, three orders closed at 1237 / 1238 / 1238, volumes 2468 / 1264 / 240, narrowing tighter and tighter, neither side willing to move first.
$SNDK
Close above 1242.9 with volume (≥20,000 lots) then pull back to 1236~1238 to go long, stop loss at 1232, first target 1247 then 1262, odds 2.0.
Close below 1225.7 with volume (≥20,000 lots) then rebound to 1230~1234 to go short, stop loss at 1240, target 1210 then 1200, odds 2.8.
Between 1225.7~1242.9 is a vacuum; the real price will only be given at the 21:30 open, no orders placed in this range.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) Crude oil has been soaring wildly, while gold has fallen below the $4000 mark, and Bitcoin and Ethereum have also weakened.
First, looking at crude oil, Brent crude futures once touched around $117 intraday, and U.S. WTI crude also broke through $103. This rise is mainly due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increasing security risks to Saudi-related facilities, and market concerns about further disruptions to crude oil supply. The continuous rise in oil prices means that costs for energy, transportation, and other sectors may continue to increase, and inflationary pressures will also rise accordingly. If inflation does not come down soon, the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates will be limited.
International gold prices fell below $4000, hitting a low near $3986.5. Normally, rising geopolitical risks should benefit gold, but the market is currently more worried that high oil prices will trigger an inflation rebound, pushing interest rate expectations higher. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar and forced liquidation of positions have also intensified gold selling. This indicates that the short-term market focus has shifted from risk aversion to interest rates and liquidity.
The crypto market is also impacted. Bitcoin's previous rebound failed to hold at higher levels and then fell back to around $80,000, while Ethereum dropped to around $2400. Weakness in tech stocks, ETF outflows, and concentrated long position liquidations are all suppressing market performance. Especially when oil prices are high and rate cut expectations cool down, capital will be more cautious about high-volatility assets.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $BZ October 24, 2026. The wear from high-frequency trading fees will be very high, causing significant loss SpaceX is now the most traded stock on Solana
On $SOL, the most traded stock in October is not Nvidia, but SpaceX.
The tokenized stock of $SPCX has a trading volume of $333 million so far in October.
$NVDA (Nvidia) has a trading volume of $255 million so far in October.
Nvidia's market cap is much larger than SpaceX's, but on-chain, more people are willing to trade SpaceX. Nvidia, with a market cap of 4 trillion, loses in popularity to a company that has been listed for only four months.
The question is: Do on-chain players have more faith in SpaceX's potential, or has Nvidia's narrative become less appealing in the crypto community? Share your thoughts in the comments—did you contribute to the $333 million?Friends borrowing 1 million USDT, please note: On October 21, Aave moved the Ethereum Core market USDT interest rate breakpoint from 94% utilization to 92%, resulting in an extra $25,000 interest paid after one year.
New parameters: base 0%, first slope 4.5%, second slope 10%, above the breakpoint each 1% adds 1.25%. So at 94% utilization, the rate jumps from 4.5% to 7%, 1 million × 2.5% = 25,000.
Current status (October 23, 09:45 UTC, block 26,254,517): variable borrow APR 4.23%, deposit side 3.29%, utilization 86.45%, with 391.4 million USDT sitting in the contract. LlamaRisk model on October 20: supply 2.8922 billion, about 417 million idle.
It's not that borrowing is disallowed, but the expensive tier is brought forward. On DefiLlama, Aave V3 has 16.73 billion locked, the largest USDT pool deposit annualized at 3.38%, matching the 3.29%. $AAVE dropped from 147.85 to 140.18 in 24 hours (-5.2%).
Have you borrowed USDT? Do you know which interest rate tier you are paying? Not checked for a day, BTC has quietly slipped down to 80,618 again. Sliding all the way down from above 81,900, ETH also followed, dropping from 2,413 to 2,353, now priced at 2,365; ZEC is the worst hit, crashing directly from 1,255 to 1,153, breaking 1,200 as soon as it was tested. It was the most frenzied in the previous rise, now it’s falling the hardest.
No new news now, which is even more exhausting. The total daily trading volume is just over 20 billion, probably the sellers have mostly sold off, but there are even fewer buyers willing to catch the fall. Any slight rebound is pressed back by sell orders, bulls above 80,000 are unwilling to buy, and bears don’t dare to push the price down aggressively. ETH weekly chart is down nearly 2.8%.
This trend is more painful than a crash, like a dull knife cutting flesh, leveraged long positions are slowly worn down without resistance. At this point, no rush to bottom-fish; watch if BTC can hold above 80,000, if the trading volume recovers, and if ETH can reclaim 2,414. Until these conditions are met, continue to observe and don’t rush to act.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #AIMemoryDemand
*Oct 2026: RAM shortage is structural.*
- Samsung/SK/Micron using 22% of DRAM wafers for HBM (AI) → 30% by 2027
- DDR5 price 4x — 32GB kit $450 vs $80 in 2025, server RDIMM doubled
- HBM3E/HBM4 sold out for 2026, 75% of 2027 already booked
- No relief till new fabs in 2028-29. Supercycle = higher prices through 2027