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[ECB Corporate Finance Survey: Corporate Side Confirms "Price Up, Volume Down" Credit Environment]
On October 26, the ECB released the Q3 Corporate Finance Survey (SAFE). It mirrors the Consumer Expectations Survey published on October 23—one surveys households, the other surveys companies. Together, these two datasets provide a clear picture of the credit environment in Europe.
This round of the survey covered about 12,800 eurozone companies (93% of which are SMEs), conducted from August 26 to October 2. Key data: a net 46% of companies reported an increase in bank loan interest rates, higher than 42% in Q2, with large companies experiencing the most significant deterioration (55%, previously 41%); a net 27% reported increases in other financing costs (fees, commissions); the proportion tightening collateral requirements rose from 10% to 14%. On the demand side, conditions were also weak: loan availability net declined by 5% (previously -1%), while financing demand remained basically flat, resulting in a "financing gap" indicator that stayed positive—the gap between desired borrowing and actual borrowing capacity persists.
However, there is a quality reminder to consider with this data: the ECB explicitly noted in its release that the sample composition changed significantly this round (majority were first-time respondents), and numeric questions such as inflation expectations and price expectations are "currently difficult to interpret." In other words, directional conclusions (credit tightening) can be trusted, but specific figures should be recalibrated once the sample stabilizes in the next round—highlighting only the negative numbers without this premise is an incomplete interpretation.
This means the corporate sentiment and the bank data mutually confirm each other: Europe's implicit tightening is ongoing. This is not good news for the profit recovery of European small businesses and also lowers the market's expectation flexibility regarding the ECB's rate cut pace. Next, we will see if the ECB's Bank Lending Survey (BLS) on October 30 aligns with the corporate side's sentiment this time.Strategy's decision to repurchase roughly $205M of STRC while buying no BTC is a useful reminder that treasury strategy is also liability management. With 848.5K BTC held at a $75,446 average cost, the balance sheet is already vast.
What remains uncertain is whether buybacks reduce funding costs enough to preserve flexibility when market conditions turn.
#CryptoTreasuryShifts $ETH Smart Money: Caught Between Bulls and Bears, Who Will Let Go First
$ETH current price 2322, slightly down 0.61%, funding rate 0.0046%. Smart money total positions $1.74 billion, 2361 traders, nominal long-short ratio 23.70%, with a significantly larger short volume.
Longs: 885 traders, $333.53 million positions, average price 2874.44, unrealized loss $79.2097 million, profit ratio only 33.33%. Cost far above current price, loss area still expanding. Shorts: 1476 traders, $1.4 billion positions, average price 2306.97, unrealized loss $9.5897 million, profit ratio 61.58%. Note: Shorts are not overall profitable, just that the current price is slightly above average price; most shorts are slightly trapped, “quickly getting out of the trap” does not mean already out.
2322 is stuck between long and short costs: above there is selling pressure from longs getting out of the trap, below there is short covering demand, the market is tugged back and forth, forming a long-short double kill. Funding rate is low, indicating weak chasing sentiment; short positions are concentrated, if price rises rapidly, covering may amplify volatility.
Data is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Don’t rush to take sides, first see which side lets go first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 $INTC Revenue and DCAI will most likely meet or slightly exceed consensus, but this earnings report can hardly be called "better than expected" — profits are suppressed by foundry operations and capital expenditures, and the foundry story has been told for three quarters with no sign of external customers.
Q3 revenue consensus is $16.47 billion, management guidance midpoint is $16.3 billion, so there is little room to beat consensus. The real growth engine is the data center: Q2 DCAI revenue was $6.26 billion, soaring 59% year-over-year; Q3 consensus is $6.46 billion, with growth still at 57%. This part is solid, AI computing demand is indeed feeding the growth.
But the profit statement doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Q3 net profit consensus is only $1.49 billion, a sharp 63% year-over-year drop; adjusted EPS guidance is $0.38, even lower than Q2's $0.42. Where did the money go? Foundry. Q2 foundry operations lost $2.1 billion, with external customer revenue only $293 million — this external order volume is barely enough to cover minor expenses. 18A has indeed started mass production, but the officially announced external customers are still on mature process nodes; 14A won't mass produce until 2028, so the time gap before revenue arrives is at least two years.
The real "better than expected" isn't in the slight revenue beat of a few hundred million, but whether management dares to give a firm timeline for landing external foundry customers. The market has already voted with its feet: the stock price dropped 13% after the July earnings report and fell another 29% in the past month. Growth from DCAI alone cannot support the valuation of the "foundry transformation." #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC's Book Gains Rebound Sharply $MSTR The book figures are absolutely explosive, but this is a fake beat driven entirely by the coin price holding up.
That 20.9 billion "book gain" is purely unrealized profit calculated under accounting standards from Bitcoin's Q3 rebound, with no real relation to the core business. Software sales revenue is only $129 million, yet EPS is an absurd $21.5, purely a financial engineering smokescreen.
The real focus is on how the financing side survives. Last week it scrimped and saved to buy 267 bitcoins (over $20 million), then turned around and spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, even increasing the buyback limit by $1 billion. Why? Because STRC fell below its $100 par value, so buying back at a discount directly cuts the huge 12% annual interest burden, which is much better than buying Bitcoin at a high price.
So how to adjust capital allocation strategy? Simply put: the old "blindly issuing shares to borrow money to buy coins" flywheel no longer works; now it must first tighten cash to clean up and repair the balance sheet. Its current mNAV premium has dropped to the edge of 1x; the market is no longer naive, and no one wants to pay a high price for its shell anymore.
Summary: The income statement is indeed "better than expected," but that's thanks to Bitcoin, not Strategy. What really determines life or death is whether it can fix its broken financing channels.$BTC dropped below $80,000; will there still be a market rally?
There will be a rally, but most likely it won't be a one-sided trend. Instead, it will involve intense fluctuations and directional choices around the $80,000 mark. The drop on October 27 was more of a risk-off pressure ahead of an event, with the real catalyst coming later this week.
Currently, BTC is repeatedly tugging near $80,000, with buying support in the $79,400–$79,600 range below and short-term resistance between $80,500–$80,800 above. Spot buying in the U.S. remains weak; the Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, and leveraged longs betting on a rise have recently suffered heavy losses. This indicates a lack of genuine buying support in the market, making rebounds prone to weakness.
The key variables focus on upcoming events: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of October 29. The market widely expects no change, but the real risk lies in the chair's stance on a December rate hike—currently, the expectation for a December hike has risen to nearly 80%. If the language is hawkish, expectations of tightening liquidity will directly suppress BTC. Meanwhile, earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are concentrated, and if AI capital expenditures draw market funds away, it will also be bearish for the crypto market.
In short, the drop on October 27 was "pressure while waiting," and the market rally will most likely unfold after the Fed's decision. Whether $80,000 can hold is the short-term watershed; if it breaks and cannot quickly recover, the downside space may open up. Who dares to short $BZ now? Once there is news of war, it will explode directly on you 😭
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
$BZ is stuck at the high level of 109. The core support is not the US dollar or interest rates, but the Middle East geopolitical supply premium. This must be clearly understood.
The recent Fed decisions, GDP, and PCE data may provide an opportunity to briefly push down crude oil prices, but it is difficult to directly drive it into a major bear market.
If Walsh's speech leans hawkish and PCE inflation exceeds expectations, the US dollar will strengthen, and crude oil will experience a short-term pullback; but as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not ease, the pullback will be temporary, and after falling, it is easy to rally back to the high level.
Conversely, if the stance is dovish and rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar will weaken, and crude oil will have the momentum to continue rising.
In simple terms: macro news can only create short-term fluctuations; geopolitics is the foundation of this oil price.
To see crude oil continue to decline, relying solely on this rate hike is not enough; the Middle East situation must ease and supply risks must be resolved.
Before that, high-level oscillation is the norm, so do not lightly take heavy short positions. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 **Bitmine再扫超1万枚ETH，Tom Lee的买入计划是不是快到终点了？** Tom Lee旗下的 Bitmine 上周再度增持 10,452 枚 ETH，总持仓量升至约 605 万枚，占以太坊流通量的 4.95%。距离其长期设定的 5% 持仓目标，仅剩约 5.8 万枚 ETH。 但比增持本身更值得关注的，是买入节奏正在逐步放缓。 从此前单周增持 15,112 枚，到随后降至 12,535 枚，再到上周的 10,452 枚，Bitmine 的买入力度呈现递减趋势。考虑到公司此前将 5% 设为目标，随着这一目标越来越近，后续新增需求可能逐渐减弱。 📊 **再看市场表现，信号并不乐观。** ETH 当前报价约 2,329 美元，24 小时上涨 0.59%，但过去 7 天下跌 4.9%，近一个月累计下跌 13%。 与此同时，BMNR 股价收于 20.95 美元，下跌 6.47%，盘中最低触及 20.93 美元。 一边是 ETH 短线小幅反弹，另一边是 BMNR 股价明显承压。两者表现出现分化，反映出市场对企业持币模式的估值可能正在重新调整。不过，单日$BEAT 目前整体趋势依然偏空。散户抄底情绪越浓，越要提防庄家反向收割，暂时继续观察空头结构是否延续。 📊 **多空数据：散户抄底情绪明显升温** - **散户方面：** 币安散户账户多空比达到 3.207，OKX 更是高达 3.55，多头明显占据优势。 - **大户方面：** 大户人数多空比为 3.5935，看多人数依然占多数，但大户持仓多空比已经骤降至 1.7038，说明多头人数与实际资金布局之间存在明显落差。 🔍 **链上结构：筹码集中，价格波动风险较高** Arkham 持仓数据显示，TreasuryUpgradeableProxy 持有约 30.81% 的 BEAT，多个 Gnosis Safe 多签金库合计控制的代币超过 50%。 这种高度集中的持仓结构意味着实际流通筹码可能相对有限，一旦大额资金集中买卖，价格就可能出现剧烈波动。不过，地址持仓集中并不等于一定存在人为操纵。 🔥 **通缩机制存在，但支撑力度仍需观察** HTX 数据显示，10 月 19 日至 26 日期间，BEAT 销毁约 124.5 万枚，相关收入约 8.28 万美元，累计销毁量已超过 3,132Today's set of leverage data, I only focus on one point:
Long leverage has clearly accumulated.
In the past month, the overall long-short leverage ratio has risen, especially for BTC, ETH, and SOL, with the amount of borrowed coins for long positions significantly exceeding that for short positions.
$BTC : Long borrowed amount 1356.11 BTC, short borrowed amount 75.21 BTC
$ETH : Long borrowed amount 16,600 ETH, short borrowed amount 772.03 ETH
$SOL : Long borrowed amount 108,100 SOL, short borrowed amount 4241.84 SOL
This indicates that market sentiment is concentrating in the same direction.
But I won't directly take this as a bullish signal.
The more concentrated the leverage, the easier it is for the market to experience short-term liquidations, especially near news events and key levels.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last night I was still waiting for 81,000, and today I have to keep an eye on 79,000 again. This BTC rebound is really just enough to make people reluctant to sell. It finally bounced a bit this morning, but BTC turned down again near 80,300, ETH didn't even touch 2,335, and the more it bounces, the lower it goes. It just doesn't inspire much desire to go long.
I actually want to wait for BTC to return near 80,000 to short a bit. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041, right pressing down on the head, and MACD is still below the zero line. But if I sell directly at 79,800, I'm afraid it will bounce after I sell, since 79,650 below is too close. I'd rather set a reminder first and see if it really returns to 80,000–80,100, so I don't impulsively chase longs if a single bullish candle pulls up. I only want to put in a small position; if it reaches 80,350 again, I'll take it back and exit. This trade is only meant to play the current downtrend, not to hold and bet on the big direction.
I might take some off at 79,650, but 79,450 is just a thought, not necessarily waiting for it. Especially since it hasn't broken the intraday low today, don't short and then start hoping for a waterfall drop. I'm not interested in ETH for now; it hasn't reclaimed 2,321, and 2,300 is close below. Making a few bucks means getting swept back and forth. I'll leave SOL alone for now too; DeFi Development recently disclosed an increase of 5,346 tokens held, but the price still grinds back near 100. Damn, there's no shortage of bullish news, but what's missing is a price movement that lets me feel comfortable after buying. I'll wait for BTC to bounce; if I can't catch this short, then forget it. I really don't want to keep paying fees back and forth between 79,800 and 80,000.Pinched for two days, so tired, is 79,000 diamonds the bottom?Conclusion first: AI computing power rental has its first on-chain perpetual. On October 26, Injective launched the SICI index perpetual, with 10x leverage and USDC margin. But $INJ only rose 2.4%, the market did not price in this narrative.
SICI tracks the rental prices of five Nvidia cards: H100 accounts for 40%, B200 25%, plus H200, A100, and RTX 4090, updated based on a 7-day average price. It is not Nvidia's stock price, but "how much it costs to rent a card."
Three reminders. First, to trade you can only go to Injective's own dApp; this index is not on OKX, and it has separate liquidity from OKX's $INJ perpetual. Second, the index updates based on a 7-day average price, not spot quotes. Third, more people are bearish on rental prices now: Gartner warns that over 80% of professional AI clouds may not survive until 2030, and Musk said over 200 neoclouds might go bankrupt; rental prices are going down, so longs lose first.
$INJ 24-hour volume is $21.54 million, open interest only $5.43 million; funding rates are near the floor price, longs are not crowded.
Conclusion: This product is interesting but does not constitute a reason to buy $INJ. Will you try Injective's dApp?The "parasitic" nature of modular DA: Prosperity relies entirely on token issuance, who can generate independent value?
Modular and DA (Data Availability) sectors are often seen as the "water sellers" fueling the public chain boom. But looking deeper, some projects' lifelines still depend on the token issuance frenzy of L2.
Comparing these three targets:
$TIA: The token price movement heavily depends on "token issuance expectations." The actual on-chain Blob data demand remains weak, with recent monthly revenue only about 6500 TIA. Once the new L2 token issuance hype fades, DA networks lacking real external paid support are very likely to see their valuations drop sharply with the overall market liquidity contraction.
$EIGEN: The shared security mechanism has been implemented, but real AVS business has yet to scale. Although ELIP-12 stipulates that 100% of protocol fees route to the buyback contract, current monthly revenue is about $650,000, far below the tens of millions of dollars worth of token unlocks released monthly. Net deflation is minimal, and it still heavily relies on inflation subsidies in the short term.
$PENDLE: Has established an independent trajectory. As long as interest-bearing assets exist on-chain, there is a hedging demand between locked interest rates and speculative gains. Its mechanism of mandatorily using up to 80% of income for buybacks is built on real transaction fees, not on endless chain-building frenzies.
Reflection:
Though seemingly all infrastructure, if DA and AVS cannot establish real demand independent of "token issuance subsidies," they remain fragile high-beta assets. The true trump card to weather cycles is to find protocols that can collect tolls from real trading activity regardless of bull or bear markets. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Confirmed by the look in your eyes, I am the wrong personUSDe is now natively launched on X Layer, which is quite practical for those who often hold dollars on-chain.
First, let's explain how it differs from USDT. USDT itself does not generate interest; if you want to earn yields, you have to find products yourself and bear the risks of those products. Money just sits idle in your wallet. USDe is a synthetic dollar issued by Ethena. After staking it into sUSDe, you participate in yield distribution according to the rules, and the yield is not arbitrarily given.
Where does the money come from? Three sources: first, funding fees and basis from hedging trades; second, staking yields from assets like ETH; third, interest from some lending and reserve assets. Simply put, it earns money from market structure, not from inflation.
The significance of launching on X Layer lies in the use case. Previously, if you had USDe, your options were limited and you had to consider cross-chain usage; now you can directly hold and trade it on X Layer. Later, OKX Wallet will also support USDe staking, and USDe will be added to the yield farming cycles. For those who already have positions, there is an additional hassle-free option.
However, synthetic dollars are not deposits; yields come from strategies, and strategies can fail. In extreme market conditions, funding fees can turn negative, sUSDe can trade at a discount, and depegging may occur. Do not treat it as a risk-free piggy bank.
USDe is issued by the third-party protocol Ethena. The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.#Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备
The boss has something to say
There is a clear divergence in corporate treasury allocations.
Strategy did not buy BTC last week but instead repurchased about $205 million in STRC preferred shares, maintaining a holding of 848,500 shares. It chose to prioritize credit preservation and stabilize its capital structure. Strive increased its BTC holdings by 6,182 coins, bringing the total to 43,000 BTC, but the newly issued preferred shares carry a high dividend rate of 15%, resulting in very high financing costs. BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 10,452 coins, totaling 6.05 million ETH, of which 5.23 million are staked, with an expected annualized staking income of about $318 million.
I believe the competition now is about whose model is more stable. High-interest financing to buy coins can crush cash flow when prices stagnate. Strategy's repurchase action indicates the leader has started to manage risk. BitMine relies on staking for cash flow, which is relatively stable.
In the market, BTC fell 0.62%, ETH fell 0.66%. BTC experienced a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC After the U.S. stock market closes, let's first review the account. Three positions, three different statuses, and the subsequent handling strategies are completely different. $TSLA is already approaching the risk line. Current loss is 106.59 (−21.43%), mark price 394.19, liquidation price 416.23665, with a difference of about 22.05 dollars. The margin ratio has risen from 58.61% yesterday to 61.91%, increasing risk pressure further. Yesterday I only recorded the distance but did not specify the next step. After today's opening, this position must have a clear handling plan: either close the position and accept the 106.59 loss; or continue holding while reassessing the risk and follow-up plan. No more hesitation within today. $UNI has given back profits for the fourth consecutive day. The return rate dropped from +83.92% to +75.62%, then to +54.60%, and now only +38.38%. The profit amount also decreased from 71.92 to 37.94. I mentioned yesterday that I would set a clear exit line for it, and now it is officially set: if the mark price falls to 7.35, all remaining positions will be closed. This line is less than 2% away from the current price, which is indeed tight. But with profits shrinking for four consecutive days, it shows that the tolerance range cannot be endlessly relaxed. Rather than watching unrealized gains continue to erode, it is better to clarify exit conditions in advance. $DOGE remains unchanged for now. Current unrealized profit is 141.02 (+14.53%), mark price 0.0778 This week the market is being pulled by the same rope, with the Federal Reserve's rate meeting on the 27th to 28th, a strong dollar and high oil prices weighing on all risk assets.
BTC didn't benefit from the US stock market's rally; instead, it slid near the 80,000 mark, with spot ETFs seeing net outflows exceeding $700 million for two consecutive days, and US buyers showing weak willingness.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq rose 0.8% on Monday, with tech stocks ignited by Anthropic's IPO filing and major earnings reports, and NVDA rising 2.5%.
The same macro backdrop, but opposite sentiment on both sides: the crypto circle is waiting for the rate decision, while the stock market is betting that AI earnings can support the high valuations.
For BTC, the first support to watch is whether 80,000 can hold; if broken, 75,000 is the next reference. For the Nasdaq, attention is on whether Google and Microsoft earnings reports will provide a foothold.
$BTC $NVDA $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 ⚠️ The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting is approaching! The crypto market is entering a wait-and-see mode in advance
The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting is coming this Wednesday, and the market has already reacted in advance! The crypto market is the first to back down, with BTC falling below the 80,000 mark, ETH weakening simultaneously, and many traders actively reducing positions and shrinking risk, quietly waiting for the meeting to release key signals.
The focus this time is not whether to raise rates now, but whether Waller will release a hawkish hint about a rate hike in December. Once hawkish remarks are made, market liquidity will continue to tighten, and the risk of pressure on the crypto market will further increase.
But the market never lacks stubborn players! Just now, some funds boldly bet 68 million, wagering that BTC can surge past 90,000 after the midterm elections.
On one side, funds are fleeing for safety; on the other, large funds are betting on long positions against the trend. The intense battle between bulls and bears has pushed market divergence to the max. Volatility is often extremely fierce on the eve of the rate decision meeting, with frequent flash crashes. Do not hold heavy positions stubbornly; prioritize risk control and wait for the direction to become clear before acting accordingly!
$BTC $ETH
⚠️ Market views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile; trade cautiously
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC memory chips are the hottest AI sector this year, but in the past 30 days (from 9/27 to today), they have fallen much more sharply than BTC:
📉 SanDisk -29%
📉 SK海力士 -24%
📉 Samsung -20%
📉 Micron -16%
🟠 BTC -5.7%
What’s more worth noting is the latter half: since 10/17, SK海力士 has rebounded about 13% from its low, while BTC has still dropped 2%, sliding from 81,500 to 79,700.
When prices fall, BTC falls less; when prices rebound, it doesn’t keep up. This isn’t strength, it just means the funds aren’t here right now.
Resilience doesn’t equal strength; money flows determine where rebounds happen first.
Data compiled, not investment advice｜OKX daily close, stocks approximate OKX perpetual prices #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The market's expectations for Google are already high; the real focus is not on revenue growth, but on the growth rate of the cloud business, the commercialization returns of AI investments, and whether profit margins can continue to improve. AI is a long-term logic, but capital expenditures may also erode short-term profits. Earnings beating expectations does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise; the key is whether the guidance can exceed what the market has already priced in. The $78,000 buy orders look thick, but when broken down, most are futures limit orders; spot market orders haven't really come in.
Large buy orders are placed in the $78,000 to $79,000 range, but a significant portion comes from the futures market and may be withdrawn before execution, so it's not genuine spot demand. Meanwhile, exchange stablecoin reserves have dropped to their lowest in nearly 12 months, and the premium index has turned negative—there is less money available to buy spot.
$BTC is around 79,800–80,300. Yesterday, spot ETF net inflows were about $110 million, all from a single product, with zero liquidity elsewhere, indicating a highly concentrated structure. Buy orders above 79,300 are relatively thick, while sell orders concentrate near 81,000. A weekly close at $80,000 is more convincing than limit orders on the order book.
$ETH is around 2,309. Single-day spot ETF net outflows were about $88.6 million, dominated by one product's outflow, with another product seeing a slight inflow and zero liquidity elsewhere. The 2,300 level has been tested twice; buyers entered at 2,313 and 2,325, but holding twice doesn't mean it can hold indefinitely.
$SOL is around 100. Single-day ETF net outflows were about $8.23 million, with one product outflowing $7.22 million and another slightly inflowing against the trend. The $100 mark is a psychological anchor; daily closes are more important than intraday wicks.
In short: The interest rate decision will most likely remain unchanged, but spot liquidity is contracting, and futures limit orders cannot support a true bottom.
This is just a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 There's something quite ironic: the news outside these past two days has actually been improving.
The US and Iran are discussing the opening plan for the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have fallen from 103.5 to 100.7, the inflation fuel is retreating, gold has bounced back to 4020, and panic hasn't escalated further. The decision at 2 AM on the 29th is very likely to be a pause again.
Logically, with this combination, risk assets should be able to breathe a sigh of relief, but what about Bitcoin? It's at 79,695, grinding lower and lower; Ethereum is at 2,311; SOL is hovering around 100.
So stop blaming macro factors; the outside isn't crashing anymore, it's the crypto market itself that can't stand up.
The evidence is in the US stock market: MSTR fell 4.24% last night, Coinbase dropped 2.95%. Both the coin buyers and exchange operators are being sold off together. This isn't caused by bad news hitting the market; it's the crypto market's own funds withdrawing.
The root problem now isn't too many negative factors, but too few buyers.
On the flip side, the good news is already in place: oil prices have dropped, gold is stable. As long as the statement on the 29th doesn't come out harsh, the spring that's been compressed for so long will bounce back quickly. But if the positive news lands and the market remains weak, then we have to admit this weakness is deep-rooted.
What do you think will happen when the decision is announced? Will it bounce or keep grinding?
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $CL Sun Ge is really awesome, in less than half a month, he has already hoarded $PEPE again, having bought 11.8 trillion PEPE tokens. It seems this rally is not over yet:
PEPE's current price is hugging the moving average band, but the RSI at 52 is still strong. Right now, it's consolidating within a range to digest the previous big surge. Once the profit-taking clears out, a new direction is expected. For those wanting to follow, watch the upper edge of the 0.0000045 range; wait for a volume breakout above it before making a move.
It's just a pity for the so-called leading meme coin $DOGE. During the most pessimistic times this month, there wasn't even a single person calling trades. There was a $385,000 liquidation in 12 hours, with longs accounting for 72%. After the liquidation, no one added positions.
Currently, DOGE's moving averages are compressed into a ceiling: 20-day at 0.0818, 50-day at 0.0843, and 200-day at 0.090. The price at 0.0777 is lying at the bottom, and any rebound above 0.08 will face resistance from positions trying to break even.
Additionally, the manipulation of $DOOD doesn't seem over yet. It just surged 20% today, with RSI at 64 indicating short-term overbought, and the price has pulled far away from the 7-day moving average.
On the 21st, DOOD's trading volume was $358 million, and today's volume is already $200 million. I originally thought the four-day consecutive drop was over, but it seems the market maker hasn't given up. Honestly, no one knows how high DOOD plans to pump.After BitMine stops buying upon reaching the 5% cap, how will the supply-demand gap in the Ethereum secondary market change, and can spot ETFs and staking demand absorb it?
BitMine previously raised funds to buy coins through issuing preferred shares, convertible bonds, and ATM secondary offerings, representing a typical "price-insensitive buyer"—regardless of whether ETH is consolidating or declining, as long as financing is in place, it executes TWAP purchases in the secondary market. After it stops, the rigid marginal buy orders of 12,000 to tens of thousands of ETH per week will directly drop to zero, significantly thinning the market's support on the downside in the short term.
BitMine is not a swing trading fund but has allocated 86.5% of its reserves into node staking. Coupled with the current all-time high staking rate of 35.9% across the network and the multi-year low CEX ETH balances, the "floating supply" freely tradable in the secondary market is already in an extremely dry state.
One derivative risk the market currently fears is BitMine's flywheel mechanism: BitMine previously issued some preferred shares with an annual dividend rate as high as 9.5% to finance coin purchases, while the current on-chain staking and yield income for Ethereum is only about 2.6% to 3.5%. After stopping new share issuance to buy coins, how will this "cash flow interest rate gap" be filled? If ETH prices do not rise for a long time, BitMine will have to sell and liquidate approximately 150,000 to 180,000 ETH produced annually from staking on the secondary market to pay dividends.
$ETH Here's a summary of today's key financial data and events
1️⃣ To be determined: Israel holds general election
🔴 Extremely high priority · Geopolitical variable
The election outcome will influence the tone of Middle East negotiations. If there's a deadlock in forming a government or hardliners are defeated, geopolitical risk premium will decline → crude oil risk premium narrows; but during a tight race, gold/crude oil/BTC are prone to sudden moves from unexpected news. Not the main trend driver, but a volatility amplifier.
2️⃣ 20:15: US ADP Employment Change (weekly)
🟠 High priority · Employment barometer
The “mini nonfarm” shows private sector hiring momentum. Strong data → strong employment resilience → Fed more confident to maintain high interest rates → bearish for gold, suppresses BTC; weak data → allows some room for easing expectations.
3️⃣ 20:30: US September Durable Goods Orders MoM
🟡 Medium-high priority · Business sentiment
Shows whether factories and capital expenditures are willing to spend. Better than expected = economy not collapsed, rate hike threat remains; worse = recession narrative rises, but market may not buy it (fear is "stagnation" not "recession").
4️⃣ Next day 04:30 | API Crude Oil Inventory 🔴
Inventory draw = oil price support; inventory build = high-level oil pullback, combined with Middle East news as a hidden key factor.
Inventory draw → supports oil price; build → cools down high crude oil. Combined with Middle East news, oil is tonight’s hidden main actor.
In short:
Watch Israel election news disruptions during the day → US data chain in the US session focuses on “employment + consumption + manufacturing” to verify high interest rate logic → early morning API sets crude oil sentiment. $BTC $ETH #HOODQ3TradingGrowth robinhood chain, robinhood's blockchain where users trade stock tokens, saw dex volume fall 30% to $6.35b in october 6-12. but defi tvl rose to $1.058b from september 30 to october 12, and morpho, a lending protocol, held $486.8m of open loans there. so lending is now a large use, not only trading. that week, borrowers paid about $417k in interest and liquidation bonuses on morpho, but morpho recorded zero protocol revenue.$SOL
At the 100 mark, SOL has held steady for another day.
Just saw on-chain data: 3 wallets transferred out 482,200 SOL over 3 days, worth about 49 million USD, heading to exchanges, clearly preparing to sell. Normally, this would be a classic bearish scenario.
But today, I don't want to follow the script. Tested it out: SOL current price just above 100, 24-hour low at 99.93, it hasn't truly broken 100. Selling pressure of over 40 million caused only a one-dollar dip, this support is quite strong.
Of course, it could also be that the sell orders haven't been fully placed yet, so there might be a drop later.
We'll talk about the next level if 100 really breaks. Until then, I'd rather just watch.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
Addresses dormant for three years have moved.
Two giant whale wallets sent 2,571 BTC to Coinbase Prime today, which is about 205 million USD at the current price. The last movement was three years ago, and the holding cost of this batch of coins is negligible.
My first reaction is to see it as selling pressure. Coinbase Prime is an institutional desk; large amounts going in here usually aren't for withdrawal.
But on the same day, data from Santiment contradicts this: 30,000 Bitcoin wallets have recently emptied and exited. Historically, such forced exits by small retail investors often appear near market bottoms.
On one side, old whales are moving coins; on the other, small retail investors are cutting losses—both happening simultaneously on the same candlestick.
My view leans more toward the latter. If the old whales really wanted to dump, they wouldn't use the institutional channel and put it on the table three hours in advance. Sideways consolidation is tiring but at this position, I’m not keen to short anymore.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Although Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak in recent days, the volume-price relationship and capital flow do not appear so pessimistic.
From the volume-price perspective, the trading volume during the decline from October 22 to 26 was slightly less than that from October 5 to 8, indicating a slight reduction in selling pressure;
From the capital flow perspective, the US spot ETF saw net outflows of $636 million and $138 million on October 22 and 23 respectively, but yesterday it turned to a net inflow of $110 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot funds on Coinank ended a continuous 4-day net outflow, with a net inflow of $148 million yesterday. This indicates a lack of sustained capital outflow.
From this angle, although Bitcoin is expected to continue to dip, it is unlikely to break below the rebound trendline shown in the chart in the short term, and the probability of effectively breaking the support level at 74968 is also relatively small.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
#BTC #Bitcoin
#BTCETFFlowSwings · Macro "Super Week" Suppression: The Federal Reserve will meet on October 27-28. The market expects rates to likely remain unchanged in October, but there is a strong expectation of a rate hike in December. For the crypto market, this means liquidity tightening is still anticipated, and the foundation for a big rally is not solid.
· Uncertainty from Elections and Regulation: The U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and there is variability regarding the progress of crypto regulatory bills (such as the CLARITY Act). This uncertainty will make large investors more inclined to wait and see rather than enter the market rashly.
· ETF Funds Withdrawing: Although there are occasional inflows, the overall trend is not optimistic. The spot Bitcoin ETF recently experienced a single-day outflow exceeding $700 million. Without sustained large-scale buying, the continuation of technical rebounds is hard to guarantee.
· $BTC "Shrinking volume at the bottom, no one is selling anymore." In reality, the market is indeed focused on the $80,000 level. Once it breaks below, the next key support is around $76,000, and it might even test the $70,000 range. So, if the price really moves downward, the "can't wait for $75,000" mentioned in the post might actually come true.
· $ETH Oversold, "Can't break below 2200." Currently, ETH has indeed fallen below all moving averages. Although the RSI is low, the technical pattern is weak. If it breaks the key support at $2220, it could trigger further pullbacks. A rebound requires reclaiming the moving average resistance near $2473. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ 2785 ETH sold in one hour, about 6.42 million USD, with an average price of roughly 2305 USD each.
Wallets labeled as "related to the Ethereum Foundation" transferred another 4393 ETH to Kraken two weeks ago from two similar wallets.
In total, 7178 ETH, nearly 16.55 million USD.
Could this be an official sell-off? On-chain, we can only see address tags, not signatures, so no one can say for sure.
My view: the volume isn't large enough to move the market, but the sentiment is definitely suppressed. If they really want to reduce holdings, they would do it in batches, not bet heavily on a single piece of news. Sold 2,785 ETH in one hour, worth about 6.42 million USD, with an average price of roughly 2,305 USD each.
The wallet monitored by Lookonchain is labeled as "Ethereum Foundation related." Note that it is related, not personally signed off, so no one can confirm if this is an official sell-off.
But the timing is worth noting. Two weeks ago, two other wallets also labeled as related transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken.
Combined, that's 7,178 ETH, roughly 16.55 million USD at this price. Not a small amount.
Here’s my take.
First, on-chain wallets are more honest than announcements. Whether the foundation says it wants to sell is less important than whether the funds have actually moved.
Second, this volume entering the spot market won’t crash the market but will definitely affect sentiment. When retail investors see the words "Foundation related," their first reaction is to run.
Third, what matters more is what they buy after selling. If converted to stablecoins and held, that means paying salaries, grants, and normal operations. If converted to other assets, that’s a signal.
My approach is simple: use this kind of news only to adjust position timing, not to set direction. If you really want to reduce, do it in batches; don’t bet everything on one piece of news.
Don’t rush to find reasons when the market drops; first check if the trading volume has truly increased. News can deceive, but trading volume won’t.The midterm election downturn curse is probably unavoidable; funds hedge in advance before the election, cashing in on the downturn early.
After Anthropic announced operational profitability, I confirmed there would be a rebound in the next couple of days. The AI sector's recovery also helped Bitcoin rebound sharply, but the high plateau of oil prices plus the high yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remain unresolved.
Don't expect the rebound target to rise too high:
The first resistance is around 82,200-83,200, which is the previous breakdown point during the earlier consolidation and decline. Combined with moving averages, there should be resistance upon the first encounter.
If the rebound exceeds expectations, it will be around 83,500-84,000, which is a strong resistance line. I've said before this is an absolute shorting position, only a collective big rebound in AI could change that.
Mainly explaining why Bitcoin can't avoid the downturn this election:
It's still the high oil prices causing inflation, high interest rates restricting the economy, and the high uncertainty risk of the midterm elections. So funds can openly reduce positions early to hedge, accelerating the downturn rhythm and amplifying the decline, then flow back after the election results are out.
Shorting time window:
Prioritize waiting for the rebound to reach the resistance levels above before starting to short in batches; don't wait until November 3rd to short.
If crude oil crashes to $95, inflation pressure significantly eases, and macroeconomic bearish factors are lifted, then do not short anymore.In-depth ETH analysis: The whale buying spree is winding down! Faith remains, but bullets are being reloaded ⚠️
$ETH heavyweight institutional data breakdown! Top whale Bitmine continues to buy against the trend, adding 10,452 ETH in a single week, spending about $24.6 million.
Its total holdings have now surpassed 6.0519 million ETH, accounting for 4.95% of ETH circulation, nearly completing the market-recognized "5% alchemy" layout. But the institutional cost is heavy, with an average holding price of $3,331, current price only $2,360, a floating loss of up to $6.1 billion, a drop of over 30%!
Big player Tom Lee remains firmly bullish, stating ETH's pullback is much smaller than that of semiconductor stocks in the US market, signaling a bull market continuation, boldly predicting an ETH target of $62,000 in this cycle.
However, core risks have already emerged! Institutional funds are quietly shifting focus, with stock buybacks costing $45.9 million in a single week, nearly double the amount spent on buying coins; coin purchases continue to shrink, hitting a new low since August. Currently, only 55,000 ETH remain before reaching the 5% holding cap, and the largest long buy orders are about to extinguish.
Faith remains, but the main incremental bullets have changed direction, ETH lacks core bottom-funding capital going forward, market volatility is huge, so caution is essential!
$ETH
⚠️ Market review is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Busy at work during the day, no time to look closely; at night, I spread out the market data and when I came across this, my drowsiness was pulled away a bit 🌙. "Escaping the strong sell-off zone" easily lifts one's spirits, but what I really want to know is: has the pressure eased, or has the room for profit shrunk?
Glassnode indicates that recently $BTC buyers have escaped the strong sell-off zone; in late September, almost all short-term holders' supply was in profit, now it has dropped to about 70%. It also believes that for buyers expecting a continued upward trend, the current entry timing is better than a month ago.
My judgment is that this is a somewhat positive signal after sentiment cools down, but not yet a trend confirmation. The decline in the proportion of profitable supply means the coverage of floating profits has narrowed, which cannot be directly equated with the exhaustion of sell orders. For short-term holders, the thinning of the buffer on paper means that whether they can hold on during subsequent volatility is more critical than "how many people are still in profit."
As for "better timing," the premise is precisely that the upward trend can continue. My speculation is that if follow-up support is insufficient, then the decline in the profit ratio may only be part of an adjustment process, and this indicator alone cannot be used to judge a bargain. My reminder to myself: don't interpret easing pressure as a guarantee of a rise. Who else is still awake at this point? Are you looking at the profit ratio of short-term holders, or the volume and price support?"Schrödinger Navigation" of Hormuz
On October 26, Saudi media leaked: Qatar's mediation proposed a "five-day mutual concession plan," Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would lift the port blockade.
On the same day, Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, responded: false information. Iran has not proposed any new plan and does not accept the model of "exchanging strait navigation for lifting the blockade."
Who should you believe?
The answer is: you don't have to believe anyone.
What you need to understand is why these two messages can coexist.
Iran's logic hasn't changed at all.
Iran's parliament speaker Kalibaf has always held a list of seven conditions: lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing assets, canceling oil sanctions, stopping military actions, US troops withdrawing from the border, war damage compensation, and no interference with nuclear capabilities.
The order is clear: the US must meet the conditions first, then navigation through the strait will "naturally return." It's not about trading the strait for benefits.
Why did Tasnim immediately deny it?
Because for Iran, Hormuz is not a bargaining chip, but leverage. A chip can be priced and sold, but as long as leverage is held, pressure can be continuously applied. If the outside world gets the impression that "the strait can be bought and sold," then any future Iranian demands will be met with bargaining.
What is being denied is not a piece of news, but the attribute that the strait as a pressure tool cannot be traded.
The US logic hasn't changed either.
CNN reported on October 27: US forces in the Middle East are ready, and at Trump's command, a new large-scale strike on Iran can be launched within 96 hours. Officials said the order might be given after the midterm elections in November.
On one hand, they leak "Qatar is working on a five-day plan," on the other, they have a knife on the table.
Negotiation news is for the market. Military preparations are for the opponent. Both happen simultaneously.
So what exactly is the "five-day plan"?
It is a media plan, not an execution plan.
None of Iran's core conditions have softened. The US's core pressure has not retreated a step. The only thing moving is the headline.
And oil prices are pricing the headline.
On October 26, Brent crude rose to $116.72, pushed to the highest settlement price since spring by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. War risk insurance premiums have risen to 10% of vessel value, compared to less than 3% before the war.
The "five-day plan" briefly pulled oil prices down. But has actual navigation through the strait resumed? Have tanker insurance costs dropped? Have the Revolutionary Guard's naval mines been removed?
No. The risk premium fuel has been piling up.
What is truly stuck is BTC.
BTC is testing the 80k level for the third time.
What is pressing it is not "whether the US and Iran fight," but a colder chain: oil at $116 → rising inflation expectations → Fed rate cuts locked out → no incremental funds for risk assets.
The Fed already raised rates once in September; the market's pricing for rate cuts this year is only about one-third. High oil prices and 3.7% inflation have welded shut the door to "rate cuts."
Negotiation headlines can make oil prices drop by two dollars. But as long as Hormuz remains in a "Schrödinger navigation" state, the inflation rope won't loosen, and the pressure on BTC won't truly lift.
There is a huge gap between the "headline" and the "execution" of geopolitical news. Those trading headlines are always harvested by those trading execution.
The five-day plan is a headline. The seven conditions are execution. The 96-hour strike readiness is also execution.
Oil prices may drop again tonight due to some tweet. But if insurance costs for the strait don't drop tomorrow, today's decline is just sending chips to the executors.
$BTC $CL $BZ To start with a cold splash, I don't directly count this stolen coin news as a positive for the security sector. According to Scam Sniffer monitoring, a user suspected of private key leakage had about $1.58 million worth of Ethereum and Base assets stolen; the attacker transferred 682 ETH in less than 2 hours, of which about 281 ETH were subsequently sent to Tornado Cash.
I'm stuck on two points: the attribution is still "suspected," so we can't conclude that a certain type of security product can block it; a large loss amount also doesn't mean users are willing to keep paying. My guess is, if the market only trades on panic, then security demand might be misread as growth in the value of related tokens, missing the evidence of revenue and value capture in between.
Of course, the bullish might also be right. If verifiable protective effects, payment growth, and a clear link between revenue and token value appear later, I would change my view. Regarding the impact of this news on the security sector, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons, don't just state the direction.Brothers, let's first lock in the calendar: tonight durable goods orders and consumer confidence data will be released, and the FOMC meeting is on the eve. Before any results come out, I won't draw any firm conclusions, just watch which side the positions are stacking on.
The total network positions increased to 140.28 billion, up 1.24%, but the stacking is concentrated: the largest one accounts for just over 20%, CME's share is 16.61%, and the top two combined are close to 40%. When the direction changes, the leaders move first.
SOL is the most aggressively added in the last hour 🔥, with a 1-hour position increase of 1.69%, and a daily position increase of 2.67%, but the price is hovering around the 100 mark. Positions are increasing but price isn't following; I treat it as a leading candidate and only add a small portion when the 1-hour position continues to increase, and exit if it shrinks.
ZEC's daily position increased by 6.48%, still the leader in gains, but the 1-hour increase is only 0.19%, showing a slowdown. Chasing the tail of the leader isn't worthwhile; I only watch if it can boost the 1-hour position.
BTC's daily position increased by 1.14%, and 1-hour by 0.33%. Positions haven't collapsed, but the price is fluctuating below 80,000. Until it recovers above 80,000, I only treat it as an anchor in the consolidation, not a breakout to follow.
ETH's daily position increased by 1.14%, and 1-hour by 0.16%. Both ends are increasing but not strongly, showing a follower stance. Without acceleration in the 1-hour position, I won't add positions separately.
I will follow the small positions with SOL's direction, only watch BTC and ETH positions without adding, wait for ZEC's 1-hour position to accelerate before deciding. With positions concentrated and data not yet released, chasing the price is just handing chips to the leaders 👀.On October 27, Brent crude fell to $114.81, and WTI returned to $101.02.
The reason seems quite reasonable: senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan went to Tehran, Qatar’s mediation side proposed a "five-day concession plan," and there are signs that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen.
The market breathed a sigh of relief and began pricing in the "reopening of the Strait."
But on the same day, the Houthis said one thing that most people overlooked: we bombed Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline.
What is the East-West Pipeline?
It’s a 1,200-kilometer pipeline crossing the desert from Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil-producing region straight to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. Its entire significance is to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
It was just attacked by drones in September, damaging pump stations and causing a temporary shutdown. It only resumed operation on October 6 at 5.8 million barrels per day, close to the 7 million barrels per day design capacity.
Saudi Arabia even plans to expand it to 10 million barrels per day because it is currently the only physical redundancy in the Gulf to bypass the Strait.
The market is pricing in the Strait reopening. The Houthis are voting to shut down the alternative pipeline.
This is the most painful part of the whole matter.
You focus on the negotiation table at Hormuz, thinking that as long as the Strait is open, oil flows, inflation stabilizes, the Fed softens, and risk assets revive.
But the Houthis tell you: there’s another route you can cut off.
The East-West Pipeline doesn’t need to be completely destroyed. Just shutting down the pump stations once more, cutting off Yanbu’s export for a few days, and the market will face a harsh reality—there is no Plan C beyond Hormuz.
By then, negotiation progress will be worthless. Oil prices will ignore all diplomatic rhetoric and jump directly.
Then what?
Oil price jumps → secondary surge in inflation expectations → Fed doubles down on hawkish stance → real interest rates rise.
BTC is now fluctuating around $80,000, once dropping below $80,000 to a more than one-month low. This week’s FOMC is very likely to hold steady, but everyone is waiting to see if Powell will mention "energy inflation."
In this macro scenario, BTC’s beta to geopolitical escalation is negative, not positive.
War pushes oil prices up, oil prices push interest rates up, interest rates kill risk assets. Bitcoin stands at the end of this transmission chain with no exemption.
So there is a huge pricing gap in the market now.
On one side is the "negotiation premium" embedded in oil prices—everyone believes the Strait will open, supply will return, so oil prices have retreated from their highs.
On the other side is the "supply cut option" written by Houthi missiles—the alternative pipeline is within range, and the global oil buffer is being drawn down one by one.
The price difference between the two is the risk you need to manage.
Don’t wait until the pump stations smoke again to remember the name of this pipeline.
$BTC $CL $BZ $CORE Colend (Core Chain Lending Protocol) Current Status 1. The contract has not been shut down; the on-chain contract still exists, and the frontend website is still accessible, but the business is basically "substantially frozen," with activity almost at zero. - In March 2026, a sharp price crash of the CORE token triggered massive cascading liquidations, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement claims the protocol code itself was not hacked and that the damage was caused by market leverage liquidations with no bad debt, liquidity was severely destroyed. - Currently, the TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; liquidity for stablecoins and BTC-type assets is almost depleted. - Almost no assets can be borrowed: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no available liquidity; ordinary users can mainly only make deposits, and the lending function is basically unusable. 2. Token CLND Status - The CLND token is still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped significantly compared to its peak. - Colend's official social updates have greatly decreased in frequency, and large-scale incentive activities have ceased. 3. Key Reminders for Existing Users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets by manually redeeming and withdrawing through the app; do not continue to deposit new funds. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events, and the collateral is the highly volatile CORE token, carrying very high leverage risk. Simple Summary ✅ From a technical contract perspective, it has not been abandoned or closed, and is still accessible and usable There are three key moments this week, and the one I care about the least is the early Wednesday one. The interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC on October 28 is unanimously expected by the market to remain unchanged, so there’s really no suspense. This time, they won’t even release the economic projections summary or the dot plot; the only thing to dig into at the press conference is Powell’s wording on inflation. There’s no chance to ask about the path, so it’s normal that the market lacks momentum.
The real movers for the year-end pricing will be the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE at 12:30 UTC on the 29th. If rates stay unchanged in October, that’s basically locked in; the probability for December can only be adjusted based on these two numbers, with PCE being especially critical—if inflation readings fluctuate again in the past few months, the December probability will be cut sharply.
Positions before the meeting are not betting on direction. In the last round, spot $BTC ETF saw about $700 million outflow in a week; funds don’t plan to jump the gun before the decision.
Without the dot plot as a foundation, the information density this meeting can provide is very thin. The volatility on the 28th will most likely come from position adjustments themselves, with little new information.
The fork happens on the 29th: if PCE rises month-over-month combined with strong GDP, the expectation for a December rate cut will be cut, and $BTC’s limited rebound space ahead will be squeezed back; if both numbers are soft, then ETFs have reason to turn back to net inflows.
The work this week is to adjust the December pricing; direction is actually secondary. If the market moves in opposite directions between the post-meeting on the 28th and the data on the 29th, those two moves likely won’t last until the 29th data is fully released. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I just checked OKX BTC perpetual contracts; the accounts with the largest positions skewed further to the short side this morning, the most aggressive in these four days.
At first, I thought last night's drop was a false alarm and that the big holders had already pulled back from shorting. Last night I even said that if the short position ratio dropped below 0.912 before noon today, I would admit I was wrong. As of 11:00, it’s 0.910, so I admit this mistake.
The long-short ratio also surged to the highest in these four days, 2.23, with more than twice as many longs as shorts. The price has been grinding sideways all morning, while open interest has actually risen to the highest in four days.
Small accounts are increasingly crowding into longs, while the big holders on the other side haven’t budged at all; neither side has withdrawn. If by this time tomorrow the big holders’ position ratio returns above 0.92, it means the big holders have covered their shorts, and I’ll admit I was wrong.
Just to reconcile, I said yesterday that if BTC open interest dropped below 30,000 contracts by noon today, I’d be wrong. The same hourly candle shows just over 32,000 contracts, so it held up.💻 Breaking down the input by code review: Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP draft proposing to redirect the automatic 8% block subsidy allocated to ZCG to NSM. The draft states that ZCG holds about 91,452.98 $ZEC, valued at approximately $125 million, enough to continue supporting related activities. This is still a proposal and has not been implemented.
My judgment: It makes sense to re-examine automatic allocations, but "sufficient balance" should not be equated with "reasonable budget." Existing funds provide a buffer but do not mean subsequent funding needs disappear; without a clear spending plan, stopping allocations may affect developer expectations. Redirecting to NSM also depends on usage rules; changing the receiving address does not fix bugs.
If I were to revise it, I would require first disclosing ZCG's funding runway, pending funded projects, and NSM allocation rules before discussing the switch. Please help review: before stopping allocations, which data do you think should be supplemented most? Is there any key dependency my logic misses?Mainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC as BTC whales - latest statistics: 2,044 addresses ≥ 1,000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of circulating supply. However! Addresses ≠ Genuine and independent individuals/institutions, which is the easiest pitfall: Includes cold exchange wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all large individual users. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, which actually belong to the same institution. More detailed layering (another sub-caliber) - Sharks: 1,000–5,000 BTC - Whales: 5,000–10,000 BTC (narrow sense) ≈ over 100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): > 10,000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses. This includes MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, and large custodians. Two key misconceptions: 1. It's impossible to know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; A single wallet could also be the money of many users (exchanges), and on-chain you can only count addresses, making it hard to distinguish the entities behind them. 2. Different platforms have different entry barriers: Some media outlets are a bit more lenient, calling ≥100 BTC 'big holder,' and the number of addresses increases to nearly 20,000, so they shouldn't be confused. In short, summarize by the most commonly used in the circle: 1Focus on KORU, first tier target to earn 10,000u, new system experiment, do not follow
6th order in October, currently holding 1 position
1st order stop loss long position entry price 11.03, stop loss price 10.8, loss -172.33, switched to short
2nd order stop loss short position entry price 11.04, stop loss price 11.94, loss -1467.72, switched to long
3rd order stop loss long position entry price 11.96, stop loss price 10.52, loss -3161.92, switched to short
4th order profit short position entry price 10.52, take profit price 10.2, profit 1018.45, continue short
5th order stop loss short position entry price 10.25, stop loss price 11.48, loss -3915.67, switched to long
6th order KORU long position [3-hour level], focus on trend-following trades, normal to have back-and-forth losses
Entry price 11.48
Position size 3487.35
Entry amount 40000
Pending take profit price 13.76
First tier target to earn 10,000u, still short 17699.19
KORU currently loss -7699.19, unrealized profit/loss not included in earnings#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
Currently, the Middle East crude oil market appears to be resuming navigation on the surface, but the underlying logic is quite the opposite.
Moreover, high oil prices directly push up inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes, ultimately suppressing the entire risk asset market, leading to weakened liquidity and making capital reluctant to short oil.
As long as the cost of transporting oil does not come down, the high premium on oil prices will be firmly fixed, inflation expectations in the US cannot be suppressed, the Federal Reserve's room to turn dovish will be compressed, and US Treasury yields and the dollar will remain strong.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Hard fork ≠ creating two types of coins! Did CORE holders lose or gain from this upgrade?
When many people hear "hard fork," their first reaction is like Bitcoin's fork creating BCH, where holders suddenly get new coins. But this emergency hard fork by CORE to fix a validator reward vulnerability will not split into a second chain or airdrop new tokens. It is a forward protocol repair upgrade and will not roll back historical transactions. What the fork did: closed the vulnerability, stopped validators from over-mining CORE; executed on-chain destruction of excess tokens still held in addresses related to the vulnerability. What the fork did not do: approximately 69 million ghost tokens already transferred out to external wallets cannot be recovered, and historical transfers will not be reversed.
Did ordinary holders lose or gain?
In the short term, ordinary retail holders did not directly receive any token airdrops. The market originally expected huge sell pressure from the vulnerability incident, but the hard fork destroyed most abnormal tokens, somewhat alleviating inflation panic, which is positive; however, since 69 million ghost tokens remain in the market, the sell pressure has not been fully cleared, market confidence remains fragile, and the coin price has not seen a strong recovery. A deeper impact: this vulnerability incident exposed flaws in the protocol's economic model, compounded by the ongoing withdrawal of official validator nodes, further deepening investors' concerns about network security.
The hard fork was just a one-time stopgap; it did not solve fundamental issues like node loss, SatPay delays, or lack of on-chain revenue. In summary: no free forked new coins, the hard fork is a risk stop-loss operation, not a positive realization.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I lean towards "Q3 numbers are not a big issue, but the focus is on HBM4 guidance rather than betting on exceeding expectations." AI server demand + memory upgrade is the main theme, with tight HBM3E supply and HBM4 mass production progress supporting ASP/profit structure; however, capital expenditure, exchange rates, and equipment delivery times will pressure short-term margins, and the market is already fairly priced (related Outcome “Yes” about 83¢, odds are average).
Positioning: Currently holding a small position in SKHY/SKHYNIX for observation/not heavily invested, will consider adding after the 10/28 guidance confirmation, not chasing highs; only if management clearly confirms HBM4 customer validation and volume ramp-up pace would it be considered solid "exceeding expectations." Not investment advice.