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SpaceX's planned $40B lease financing for GPUs and data centers shows how AI infrastructure is becoming a credit-market story, not just a technology race. Starlink and launch revenue may strengthen funding access, but returns still hinge on delivery timing, financing costs, and compute demand. A year-end closing would not settle those questions.
#SpaceX40BGPUDealAgreed The largest coin hoarding company made zero purchases in a week; don't take it as a bottom-fishing invitation.
Noticed: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that from 10/19 to 10/25 it neither bought nor sold Bitcoin, holding steady at 848,517 coins, while repurchasing STRC preferred shares worth about $204.9 million during the same period; CME FedWatch prices about a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged on 10/28. OKX current price is about $79,700, with a 24-hour high of $80,849.9 and low of $79,455.8—stuck just below $80,000.
My view: The halt in buying is a company capital management move, not a buy signal for you; the rate hold is almost fully priced in, betting on a dovish statement to bottom-fish is the easiest way to get cut.
What I do: Stand firm and observe, don’t chase this "breakdown bargain"; if it breaks below the 24-hour low of $79,455.8 and fails to recover, consider this round of "$80k psychological support" invalid.
Before the FOMC statement, don’t assume a trend reversal to bullish.
Do you think $BTC will first hover around $79k, or continue testing $77k?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Strategy停买比特币 #美联储议息前观望 #Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备 Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, has released stunning Q3 data.
At the investor meeting on October 14, it was disclosed that quarterly revenue reached $16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-over-quarter surge, with revenue for the first three quarters already seven times last year's total.
The rolling 12-month growth rate peaked at 1200%, an exceptionally rare level of growth.
The growth is mainly driven by B2B enterprise purchases, with 80% of revenue coming from corporate clients, and the number of million-dollar clients has doubled.
Claude Code has ignited developer demand, combined with cloud channel expansion, and Q3 free cash flow has already turned positive, with October revenue accelerating further.
The key point is not just that AI companies are making money, but that it answers a core market question: the AI investments made can truly convert into sustainable cash flow.
The AI narrative is shifting from a story to financial report realization, and this logic will follow Nasdaq risk sentiment, indirectly transmitting to BTC.
This week, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are releasing earnings reports; let's see if resonance can be formed.
Do you think the AI commercialization market can continue to ferment? Follow for ongoing earnings analysis during earnings week.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $GOOGL $AAPL $MSFT 10.27 Financial Summary
1. The Dollar System 2.0 is a "Four-in-One" Combination
The Dollar itself: It still holds the dominant position in global trade and foreign exchange reserves, with the depth of the US Treasury market as its foundation.
Oil and key energy: The US continuously strengthens its control over the global energy market through military and other means; the dollar settlement right in energy trade is the basis of traditional hegemony.
AI chip semiconductors: The US leads in high-end chips and foundational models, but we are catching up quickly; the next 2-3 years are a critical competitive window.
Cryptocurrency and stablecoins: This is a new variable in the digital era. After the US "Genius Act" officially takes effect in January next year, progress will accelerate. Stablecoins will be deeply linked with the dollar and US Treasuries, becoming an extension of the dollar in the digital world.
2. Our response logic is very clear: first secure safety, then seek opportunities
Currently, the mainland is a major financial country but not yet a financial power, so the top priority is to maintain the financial safety bottom line.
Hong Kong’s positioning is an "offshore testing ground": it has the foundation of an offshore market and can isolate financial risks from the mainland, effectively serving as a "firewall" for us.
If it keeps pace: If stablecoins and tokenized markets truly become the trend, we can gain discourse power and opportunities through Hong Kong.
If it retreats: If development falls short of expectations, risks will not transmit to the mainland, avoiding major damage.
3. Timing window judgment
The US has accelerated progress on these four elements this year because it feels its "window period" is narrowing.
There is still some convergence this year, but starting next year, it will push forward rapidly and comprehensively, so our response window is actually very tight.
4. Additional information
Core of the "Genius Act": It requires stablecoin issuers to use US Treasuries and dollars as reserves, essentially converting global demand for stablecoins into demand for US Treasuries, further consolidating the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, while bringing stablecoins under US regulatory oversight to combat illegal financial activities.
Hong Kong’s actual actions: In 2026, it is already advancing stablecoin issuer regulations, digital asset trading licenses, and trial operations of a gold central clearing system, truly moving toward becoming an "offshore financial testing ground."
Summary: The Dollar System 2.0 is a combination of "traditional hegemony + new digital track." Our response is "using Hong Kong as a buffer, neither absent from future digital financial competition nor allowing risks to breach the firewall." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 On the eve of the FOMC: Four coins waiting for each other
Tuesday morning session, the last full day before the decision, the market is generally cautious.
$BTC is consolidating around 80,700, holding sideways at 80,000 for two days; after losing 81,000, it has not quickly reclaimed it. On-chain whales are distributing around 80,000, but retail inflows hit a six-month high. The probability of the FOMC holding steady at midnight is 84.5%, with focus on Powell's press conference: if 80,000 breaks, watch 78,000; if dovish, look at 82,000. It is not advisable to heavily bet on direction now.
$ENA is at 0.209, after an 8% rally two days ago due to preemptive rate cut expectations, it has stabilized, and chasing high is paused. Its USDe collateralized short-term Treasury yield logic remains; if the decision is dovish, it may rebound again; if hawkish, it might give back gains. Not recommended to chase.
$HYPE is at 76.6, on-chain exchanges did not follow the rally. Its order book is built on a self-developed L1, with protocol fees flowing back to holders; it did not follow ENA's rise, indicating funds prefer the yield narrative. 75 is the next level to watch; avoid leverage before the decision.
$WLD is at 0.472, consolidating for a day. The iris identity network lacks an interest rate story, privacy controversies and regulatory ambiguity remain; before the decision, it is more prone to follow the broader market with potentially larger volatility than mainstream coins.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Even with macro liquidity easing further, it cannot patch security vulnerabilities in protocols. On Nexus reported that its older trading platform DotSwap V1 was attacked; the attacker exploited the legacy server-side signature mechanism and within about 4 hours transferred approximately 8.5 BTC from liquidity pools and accounts, valued at around $685,000.
My speculation is: if external liquidity tightens, such incidents will raise the risk threshold for capital participation in Bitcoin DeFi. The reason is practical: if the old mechanism can still cause losses, capital must reassess security costs; if users withdraw liquidity as a result, trading depth may also be pressured, affecting the remaining users.
I tend to view this as a repricing of security risk rather than a direct macro negative for $BTC. Beyond the amount, I am more concerned whether capital is willing to continue bearing protocol risk. Facing this kind of news, are people now more focused on the Fed's interest rate path or on the impact of dollar liquidity on on-chain capital inflows?Is the coin-buying maniac Saylor not buying BTC this week? This time, the money was spent on his own company's stock. Last week, Strategy took out $205 million to repurchase about 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock, while the BTC holdings remain at 848,517 coins, not a single one added.
Seeing this news, my first reaction was also: Is the guy out of money? Looking further into the accounts, there’s still about $242 million in regular cash, and another $4.83 billion in dollar reserves, mainly kept for dividends and debt interest. The disposable cash has indeed decreased quite a bit, but just because he didn’t buy for one week doesn’t mean he’s out of funds. In the previous two weeks, he was still buying BTC while repurchasing STRC; this time he only bought preferred stock.
For the market, the bulls lost a familiar buying signal, which is a bit discouraging. Especially since BTC is still hovering around 79,800, just climbed back above 80,000 and got pushed down again. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041; until this is reclaimed, I’m not eager to chase longs. I want to wait and see around 79,000; if someone steps in, trying a small position is fine; if it really drops straight down, I might hesitate to press further. If longs break below 78,800, I’ll exit first, and take some off near 80,000, so I don’t get too optimistic after a rebound thinking it will go straight to 81,000.
I’m quite curious if Saylor will buy again next week. If he posts another buying chart, those who criticized him for being out of money today will probably immediately change their tune and shout that the bull market is back.Previously, after contract liquidations, the market could still recover on the same day. But in the past two days, after contract liquidations, the overall open interest (OI) in the contract market has generally dropped by more than 20%. This indicates that the entire market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision.
The fact that there will be no rate hike is basically certain. The market's focus is actually on the Fed's tone: whether it will proceed with a scheduled rate hike in December and another one next year, or take a more aggressive stance to fight inflation. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the critical points for several major coins basically lie in liquidity and interest rate stance:
$BTC's 80,000 level was originally a strong support, but now everyone is indifferent to it. Currently, BTC is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (both lines pressing near 82,000), with an RSI of 42.7, neutral to slightly bearish.
The 80,000 round number is now a psychological level and also the cost line for ETF participants. October still saw a net outflow of about 314 million. If the Fed's tone remains hawkish, I estimate it will break below 79,000.
$ETH has been the weakest in the past half month, with price holding below the 2,320 USD pivot, suppressed by the 50-period EMA. Exchange reserves have climbed to 14.93 million coins ready to sell anytime. Coinbase premium dropped to -0.1173, the lowest in two months. October ETF net outflow of about 1.08 billion is the worst of the year. If there is a hawkish statement, it will break below 2,200.
$SOL has the greatest elasticity but is most tightly bound by macro factors. It has now dropped below the 100.58 USD pivot, with RSI at 44.9, showing weakness.
SOL has potential because its ecosystem is real: Q3 saw 8.92 billion non-voting transactions, up 104% year-on-year, and September stablecoin transfers hit a record 5.57 billion. There is price misalignment here; once macro conditions recover, SOL's gains will be significant. A-share Queen Zhang Sufen was silent after seeing it: "CORE hard fork saved the chain, but who will take the 69 million 'ghost chips'?"
Investors familiar with Zhang Sufen's contrarian strategy know clearly that she dares to lurk in low-position unpopular stocks only when the risk boundaries are clear, with no hidden time bombs. Even if the listed company's performance is sluggish, there won't suddenly appear a large unknown chip amount to crash the market at any time; the total share capital and unlocking schedule are all open and transparent, and negative factors are measurable. In contrast, although the CORE hard fork urgently plugged the reward loophole and destroyed 186 million abnormal tokens still in the loophole address, saving the protocol from being destroyed by infinite inflation—one could say the hard fork saved this chain—69 million ghost chips had long been transferred to external wallets and cannot be recovered. This chip amount is an unpredictable hidden risk hanging over all holders' heads. The most terrifying aspect of this chip amount is: the holder's identity is unknown, the selling time is unknown, and the selling scale is unknown. Once the market warms up, it could be dumped in batches at any time, causing sudden selling pressure during the rise. In Zhang Sufen's evaluation system, this unquantifiable hidden chip risk is an extremely dangerous variable. Zhang Sufen, doing contrarian investment, can tolerate long-term price declines but will not accept a huge latent selling pressure with completely unknown unlocking time. The hard fork only stopped the bleeding; it did not eliminate the biggest chip risk. Even if the coin price is low, as long as the ghost chips remain, combined with continuous withdrawal of validation nodes and the SatPay landing being far off, it does not meet her stock selection safety standards. Folks, Glassnode just released a very interesting set of data, which is good news for those of us looking to get in now✨!
Here's a simple translation:
At the end of September, almost 100% of the short-term buyers of Bitcoin were making a profit😳. Think about it, when everyone is profiting, even a slight dip will cause everyone to rush to take profits, creating extremely heavy selling pressure.
But now? The profit ratio of this group has dropped to around 70%. This means that after a month of ups and downs, some of the people who chased the highs have given back profits or even got stuck. The impulse to "dump and run" has clearly cooled down💔.
So, for those optimistic about Bitcoin's future trend, the current entry environment is indeed much healthier than the extreme "everyone profiting" state from a month ago. Selling pressure has eased, so the resistance to upward movement is reduced. But remember, lighter selling pressure doesn't mean an immediate surge; it just means the foundation is more stable.
Do you think this is a good time to slowly build a position? Come to the comments and share your thoughts👇🥺
$BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's policy meeting officially started today 📅 Let's clarify the timeline first: The meeting runs from October 27 to 28 US time, today is the first day; the interest rate statement won't be released until 2 AM Beijing time on October 29, so don't rush to expect results during the day.
This time, I'm focusing on three things 👀 First, whether the interest rate aligns with market expectations; if it's already priced in, the number alone has limited significance. Second, how the Fed describes inflation and the subsequent path; if they continue to emphasize pressure and hint at maintaining high rates, risk assets might feel uncomfortable. Third, my biggest concern is BTC's movement: if it doesn't fall under bearish news, it means selling pressure might not be strong; if the news isn't bad but the rebound is weak, we should be wary of the market's own weakness.
Personally, I'm still cautious 🧊 I won't call a reversal just because of a pre-meeting rebound, nor will I conclude BTC must fall just because of the meeting. The key is not how hawkish or dovish the statement wording is, but the market's real reaction after hearing it. Is this meeting a turning point for BTC, or just another round of bulls and bears cutting each other? We'll keep watching 🔍
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 In the futures market, when the discount widens, I usually first look at hedging and position pressure, and I don't rush to conclude that prices will continue to fall. Turning to crypto, I also treat the funding rate as a signal of position cost rather than a directional indicator.
The public market data for Hyperliquid perpetual contracts shows that the highest absolute funding rate currently is for WLD, at -0.0067% per hour, which annualizes to about -59%, with a 24-hour change of -1.49%. A negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, which differs from traditional delivery contracts; perpetuals use this fee to balance longs and shorts.
My judgment is that this is more like a short cost warning rather than a bottom-fishing signal: if the negative funding rate persists, the cost of holding short positions will accumulate; but paying the fee does not necessarily mean shorts will exit, and prices may still face downward pressure. The annualized figure is just a projection based on the current rate and should not be considered a fixed return. Are there any friends who have transitioned from traditional markets and, when encountering such negative funding rates, interpret them like futures discounts?#BTC pullback after a rally, has market rotation begun? BTC is repeatedly tugging around $80,000, testing this level for the third time after three consecutive weeks of decline. The $79,400–$80,800 range is the short-term core battleground. The FOMC meeting will most likely determine the breakout direction; if $80,000 fails to hold, the next support is at $76,000. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, with institutions clearly turning cautious on short-term upside. $BTC The sun is rising from the west? The coin-buying maniac Saylor has actually stopped! He hasn't bought a single BTC in the past week; instead, he spent $205 million to repurchase 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock. He still holds over 840,000 BTC. The tone has suddenly changed—what kind of signal is this?
Don't listen to analysts talking about "optimizing capital structure"—to put it bluntly, even landlords have to do the math. STRC has floating dividends, so the buyback is just to save some future interest payments. But the reality is, after spending over $200 million, he has no money left to keep buying BTC. Also, looking at his books, the ordinary cash balance has dropped to only $240 million; the remaining tens of billions in reserves are lifesaving funds reserved for paying dividends and debt interest, which he can't touch.
Is he chickening out? Not necessarily, but he definitely is under financial pressure. In the short term, this is definitely a minor negative sentiment. BTC is already struggling like a dead dog around 80,000; the biggest bullish player suddenly stops supplying, and the market loses a major pillar. Expecting an immediate V-shaped rebound now is pure nonsense.
But I don't think the bull market is completely over. He's just adjusting finances, not liquidating and running. Next, let's closely watch two things: when he resumes buying coins and how much cash remains on his books. Don't rush to catch the falling knife. If BTC drops to 79,000 to 80,000 on this negative news with shrinking volume and stabilizes, then I'll consider picking up some bloodied chips. If it falls below 79,000 directly, just wait patiently for 77,000 to reassess. As for ETH, I don't even want to touch it for now.$Q's trend is literally writing madness all over its face!
It surged nearly 50 times from the bottom, with daily trading volume breaking 1 billion, even leaving $SOL behind. With the current market, having so much capital concentrated into one coin is very abnormal.
Looking back at history, every time it was a pump to dump, shakeout, then bottom consolidation to accumulate. The current hype is retail chasing highs while the main players are distributing. The cost basis at the bottom is extremely low, so selling even a little now is huge profit.
After the last pump, how many thought it could still surge? The result was a sharp pullback within a week, a 30% drop in one day. Those chasing highs probably can't even get off the ride now. From the smart money perspective, the high-level consolidation is not a buildup, but waiting for more people to take the bag.
On-chain data shows whales entered with large volume at the bottom, cost around 0.088, and despite a 130% rise, no large-scale selling yet. This is the scariest part—they haven't left, indicating big moves are still coming.
Old Li's comprehensive judgment is that $Q is currently a high-level bull trap, waiting for retail to rush in, then exploding short positions to take profits. If the trend worsens, it might first spike down to shake out before rebounding. But remember, this is not an opportunity, it's a trap.
Also, on November 2nd, 248M will unlock, and most likely someone will pump and dump before the unlock. Don't end up being the bag holder thinking you're a bottom buyer hero. $SNDK $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $XRP
Someone told me that XRP will drop to $1 within a few days, and he is ready to buy at that level.
I didn't respond and first checked the data. On October 27, XRP pulled back from 1.2725 to around 1.30, with a 24-hour trading volume increasing by more than 20%. After being oversold, this rebound is not weak. Just tested, current price is 1.298, with a high of 1.3133.
The bearish person's reason is that global liquidity hasn't improved, and XRP, which relies on sentiment, will eventually go back. I don't completely disagree with this, but $1 is still more than twenty points away from now, so it sounds more like he's trying to boost his own confidence.
The scariest thing during a rebound is not that someone is bearish, but that the bearish person also starts buying. Once he buys, the chips transfer from panicked holders to patient holders, making the drop less painful.
I don't hold XRP in my position, just watching the show. But this time, I lean more towards the rebound side and will admit if proven wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Altcoin activity on Hyperliquid is cooling, while stock-related contracts are attracting more trading volume. According to @TradingBeats_, 23 stock-related assets exceeded $10M in 24-hour volume, compared with just 13 altcoins. At the $5M threshold, stocks led 31 to 21. Key trends: ▪ Altcoin volume fell from September’s $4.108B peak to $1.254B, down nearly 70%. ▪ $HYPE and $ZEC accounted for 46.6% of total altcoin volume. ▪ Excluding them, altcoin volume was just $670M, less than half that of stTuttle applied for a 2x Asia Storage Stock ETF and a 2x Zcash ETF, and many people see this as a new capital inflow, initially calling it positive news.
On the other hand, I think this news has more significance for sentiment than as proof of demand. First, an application does not equal approval, so we can't count on capital inflow in advance; second, leverage amplifies exposure but does not mean increased usage demand for Zcash. Do you think $ZEC lacks more trading tools or actual use? Those with opposing views, come debate.Many people ask: Is saving up 5 BTC enough to retire?
The math is actually simple:
At $80k each, 5 coins are just under 3 million RMB. Following the 4% rule, you get 120,000 RMB per year, enough to live as a digital nomad in Dali or Chiang Mai; but to withstand inflation, raise kids, and prepare for old age in a first-tier city, it's far from enough. You’d at least need BTC to stabilize between $150k-$300k.
But whether you can retire on 5 coins is never really an "arithmetic problem," it’s a "human nature problem":
1. Scarcity is on your side: Globally, very few can hold a full coin securely, and 5 coins definitely make you a top player.
2. Volatility is the biggest test: If 100% of your assets are in crypto, a black swan event causing a 50% crash, combined with urgent family expenses, could force you to sell at a loss and plunge you back into poverty and the workforce.
The real "5 BTC retirement plan" isn’t to go all-in and sell everything at once, but rather: during bull markets, gradually cash out 1-2 coins to buy U.S. bonds, high-dividend stocks, or pay off your home as a "ballast"; keep the remaining 3 coins as a family heirloom, selling only 0.1-0.2 coins annually to cover living expenses.
Having coins in hand, plus cash flow and health insurance outside the market, is true freedom. How many $BTC do you think you need to save before you dare to fully relax?Strategy's market cap has surged into the global top 400, yet Saylor suddenly stopped buying Bitcoin.
This week's capital flow is very unusual. The company spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, but only $22 million on buying Bitcoin. The repurchase amount is nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying Bitcoin; money is still being spent, but the priority has completely changed.
The reason lies in dividends. STRC's annualized dividend yield is as high as 12%. The larger the issuance scale, the heavier the future dividend burden will be. The current repurchase essentially reduces financing costs and eases future cash flow pressure. Simply put, previously they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin; now they are first addressing the cost of borrowing.
Looking at the background makes it even clearer. Bitcoin fell below $80,000, and the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision. When the coin price drops, the valuation of the coins on the company's books is under pressure, but the high-yield preferred stock dividends will not decrease by a cent, nor will they automatically discount due to the coin price drop. Assets shrink, liabilities remain rigid, and the gap in between can only be borne by themselves.
This move indicates that Saylor's focus has shifted: from expanding holdings to maintaining financing channels. When the coin price rises, borrowing money to buy Bitcoin acts as an accelerator; when the price moves sideways or falls, the same leverage becomes a countdown.
If financing costs continue to rise and Bitcoin fails to rebound, this model of continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings through capital market financing will face increasing pressure. The real test is not whether to keep buying, but whether they can still borrow money cheaply. Watching the coin price also means watching these companies' financing costs.Strategy's market cap has entered the global top 400, yet Seller has stopped buying Bitcoin.
This week, the company spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, but only $22 million to buy coins; the repurchase is nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The reason is that those preferred shares have an annual dividend of 12%, and the larger the scale, the heavier the future interest payment pressure.
Bitcoin fell below $80,000, the coin's valuation shrank, but the dividends remain intact. Previously, they borrowed money to buy coins; now they are first reducing financing costs, showing a change in posture. Going forward, the real focus is not whether they will keep buying, but whether they can still borrow money cheaply.$BTC is still in a bearish trend, but do not chase shorts because many people have already been shorting around 79000. Be cautious of a rebound!!
In the past two days, BTC has been oscillating between 79000 and 81000. It hasn't broken below 79000 nor surpassed 81000, just grinding without giving a clear signal. Although we remain bearish in the mid-to-long term with a target of 75000, there is no clear direction in the short term, so shorting at this level is not advisable. The area around 79000 is close to a support level. Moreover, the key observation is that the contract CVD has hit a new low at this level, but the price hasn't made a new low, and the spot market hasn't followed the new low either; instead, it continues to rise, and open interest is increasing. What does this signify? It indicates that a rebound could happen at any time because when the price dropped near 79000, short positions kept increasing, but the price couldn't go lower, proving that spot holders are supporting the bottom. This situation often leads to a rebound that traps those chasing shorts, so avoid shorting here as a rebound is likely.
So where might the rebound go? The first range is 81000 to 81500 because the price has yet to break 81000, and there is a parallel top on the 4-hour chart, so there is considerable liquidity here, making a move to this range possible. The second target is to clear liquidity around 82000, potentially reaching 82400-82800, as there is a daily-level gap and liquidity here. These are two possible rebound zones. $ETH A few days ago, $IRYS and $ORDER were just hyped up, and now it's $DOOD's turn! Bitcoin is still stuck around 80,000, but the Korean market is doing well, specifically pumping these small coins to the moon!
DOOD once surged to around 0.0026, with a Korean platform's 24-hour spot trading volume exceeding 130 billion KRW! The nominal value of perpetual positions even once surpassed 30 million USD, while the circulating market cap is only about 18 million USD. It's an NFT ecosystem coin—how could it suddenly be worth so many people desperately opening leverage?
What's even more interesting is that on some platforms, the funding rate reached as low as -0.56% every 4 hours! The price keeps rising higher and higher, so shorts not only suffer unrealized losses but also have to pay funding fees! Looking at this liquidation data, total liquidations reached 1.2622 million USDT, with shorts accounting for 789,800 USDT, more than 60%! The short side really got taken out a lot!
I suspect some capital first swept the spot market, forcibly pushing the price up to attract shorts who think the price has peaked, then borrowed from short covering to continue pumping. The more the shorts resist, the easier they become fuel for the pump!
Yesterday it was IRYS and ORDER, today it's DOOD. The projects are unrelated, but the hype method is so familiar! I think this wave is all about capital, leverage, and human nature—don't force an NFT value reappraisal! Whether there will be a second wave is another matter, but for a market with such extreme negative funding rates, anyone thinking of casually catching the top should first calculate how long they can hold on! Backfired. Just yesterday evening, Zcash Labs released Zcash JS, a JavaScript toolkit for building Zcash applications on the web, server, and mobile platforms. $ZEC surged over 3% against the trend that day. On one hand, they halted the Crosslink staking upgrade; on the other, they delivered new developer tools. Ajian believes this ambidextrous move is a typical case of governance disagreements and product advancement happening simultaneously. The final outcome is clear: for short-term price impact, the toolkit is more important than the staking solution because it lowers application development costs and directly affects the ecosystem. From another perspective, the very existence of such conflicts at least shows this chain still has considerable vitality rather than declining or stagnating 🤐Midday Report: The Calm Before the Storm! $BTC BTC firmly defends the 79,600 moving average convergence, tonight's Fed "hawkish pause" will decide the fate
📝 Main Text
Good afternoon, brothers. This morning's market can be best described as "still waters with slight ripples."
BTC current price is about 79,718 (-0.85%), fluctuating narrowly between 79,427 and 80,822 in the past 24 hours. ETH is around 2,307 (-0.83%), also trapped in a tight range between 2,294 and 2,343. On the 15-minute chart, the MA5/MA10/MA20 of both major coins are highly converged—BTC’s three moving averages squeeze between 79,780-79,847, ETH’s between 2,311-2,314. This pattern means only one thing: both bulls and bears are waiting, waiting for tonight’s Fed.
📊 Technical Analysis: The window for a breakout has opened
BTC’s SUPERTREND is at 80,146, the first resistance overhead. Below, 79,607 is the early morning low and the last short-term defense line. ETH’s SUPERTREND is near 2,307, with price just clinging to this line, caught in a dilemma.
Such tight moving average convergence means that any slight push from either side could trigger a rapid directional move. Tonight is that opportunity.
🏛️ Tonight’s Core Issue: Not whether to hike, but how the "hawkish pause" is framed
The Fed will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28, with results announced tomorrow night. According to London Stock Exchange futures data, the probability of holding rates steady in October is as high as 90.6%, with the market almost unanimously expecting "no change."
But this is by no means a signal that "tightening is over."
The real game is in December. The market currently prices a 67.5% to 68.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike in December. In other words, the market’s script is: pause in October but leave the door open for a December hike—the so-called "hawkish pause."
More importantly, this October meeting will not release new economic forecasts (no dot plot), chaired by Kevin Walsh, with the post-meeting statement as the sole policy signal. Bank of America even expects the press conference to be unusually brief, about 30 minutes with no Q&A. This means the market will have to interpret December’s true intentions from a subtly worded statement.
There are two layers of impact on the crypto market:
First, the possibility of short-term "bad news fully priced in." After the September hike, BTC and ETH reacted mildly immediately but then rose 11.58% and 11.94% respectively over the next 7 days, with SOL surging 18.70%, indicating that once the policy is implemented and uncertainty removed, risk appetite actually recovers. If tonight’s statement is not more hawkish than expected, the market may replay the "bounce on landing" scenario.
Second, structural liquidity withdrawal. Besides the Fed, there is an underestimated variable: Anthropic’s IPO valuation range is as high as 1.5 to 2 trillion USD, planning to raise over 100 billion USD, expected to list mid-November. The AI giant’s IPO will siphon off market risk appetite and liquidity. Bitcoin at the 80,000 level must not only face the Fed’s wording but also competition from capital migrating from high-volatility assets to new stocks.
📰 Signals Beyond the Market
BTC spot ETFs barely maintained a net inflow of $301 million last week but saw a net outflow of $314 million for the full month of October, showing overall fund flow volatility. Institutional behavior is also diverging: Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases and switched to buying preferred shares; Strive, on the other hand, bought 6,182 BTC aggressively. Large funds have not formed a consensus at this level.
💡 Midday Trading Reminders (Extremely Important)
First, do not heavily bet on direction before tonight. Moving average convergence plus the eve of a major event is the most likely time for "both sides to get hit." Whether you are bullish or bearish, heavy positions before the statement are essentially gambling, not trading.
Second, those without positions should keep waiting. Wait for tonight’s statement, then see if BTC holds above 80,150 (SUPERTREND) or breaks below 79,600; see if ETH stabilizes above 2,320 or falls below 2,290. Once direction is clear, follow on the right side—even if profits are smaller, certainty is far better than guessing now.
Third, those with positions should reduce leverage to the minimum. If you have open trades, long or short, tighten stop losses before the event. Tonight’s volatility won’t be small; high leverage has no margin for error against spikes.
📌 Summary
BTC and ETH moving averages have converged to the extreme, and the market is holding its breath for the Fed’s "hawkish pause" tone. The consensus is no hike in October; the key is how the door is left open for December. Control your trades before tonight; follow the direction after. Cash in hand means opportunities are never lacking.
Brothers, what do you think? After tonight’s statement, will BTC break upward or downward? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Staring at the screen for a long time, I suddenly feel this market is quite darkly humorous.
Today's biggest bearish factor is not some macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "insiders" running first.
Arthur Hayes casually said on X, "I sold everything," and casually dumped 6,400 ETH worth $15.2 million. He said it very bluntly: "The market has to fall first before it can rise again."
More intriguingly, a wallet associated with the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap today at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and then converting it into stablecoins.
Even the project team is cashing out at this point, while retail investors are still staring at the candlestick charts waiting for a "bullish rebound."
The ETF side is even more straightforward. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow.
Throughout October, Ethereum ETFs have seen cumulative outflows exceeding $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs.
This is not a technical correction. This is capital voting with its feet.
As for my short position, the average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%. The liquidation price is far away at 2,779, with more than four hundred dollars in between. You are heavily buying near 2,300,
The game you are playing is "it should rebound after falling too much"; I hold a small position, playing "which direction the money is flowing."
Below $2,209, there is $978 million worth of long position liquidations pending. This number is the guillotine hanging over the bulls' heads.
I don't guess the bottom, I just follow the money. What do you think, when both the Foundation and Hayes are selling, how many more days can the 2,300 level hold?
$BTC $ETH $DOOD
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $BEAT manipulation by the whales is as simple as breathing, those holding short positions without exiting are regretting it.
I mentioned yesterday that tokens would unlock on November 1st, increasing market circulation. The whales will definitely use this wave to pump and dump, but the large amount of trapped positions above won't allow the price to rise too high, just around the range I predicted.
Taking both long and short positions is also a common tactic of the whales. You can see in the chart that the same address related to the project team is selling off in batches, so BEAT has a pullback trend, and the short positions are also taken advantage of accordingly.
Currently, that related address is buying back, and with volume increasing from hourly to daily charts, it is predicted that the whales are preparing a second wave of pump. This wave is expected to break the previous high again from 0.08607 to 0.095-0.1 (this is conservative; I feel it might return near 0.12).
Therefore, short positions should exit, and long positions shine again. I suggest those entering the market pay attention to position management and keep reserves for averaging down.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Tom was declaring the bull market officially underway on Monday, yet BitMine bought just 10,452 $ETH last week, worth $24.5M at an average price of $2,344, while spending around $46M on share buybacks.
It’s now only 58,000 $ETH away from its 5% supply target, but this slowdown has delayed progress a little.
Still, maybe this gives the E-Guardians five more weeks to mentally prepare! 🤪
#BTCETFFlowSwings Trading BTC, the biggest fear isn't missing the bottom, but thinking the bull market is back just after a few days of rebound.
Look at the recent ETF fund flows.
On October 19, there was a net inflow of about $527 million, and on the 21st, another inflow of about $525 million.
But on the 22nd, about $636 million flowed out at once, and on the 23rd, another $138 million flowed out.
Money comes fast and goes fast too.
So don't rush to chase the price just because of a large inflow in one day. ETF capital entering doesn't mean the market will immediately reverse.
I've been through several bull and bear cycles, and now I value one thing more: making a wrong judgment isn't scary, but making a wrong judgment and loading up your position fully is the real trouble.
I'd rather earn a little less and wait for both capital and price to give signals.
Market opportunities are always there, but once the principal is lost, it's not that easy to earn it back.
When you trade BTC now, do you start with a small position to test the waters, or wait for a clear trend before entering?
#BTC Terrifying, absolutely terrifying, looking at the current trend.
This wave of correction is really on a high level.
$ETH has rolled down all the way from the high of 2527, without even a decent rebound in between.
It's completely a one-sided slow bleeding meat grinder market.
The EMA5, 10, and 20 moving averages above the head form an impenetrable air defense net, tightly trapping the bulls underneath, not even leaving a gap to catch a breath.
Every time you think it has bottomed out, it reverses and smashes out a new low, now directly approaching 2300!
The scariest thing is not the crash itself, but this kind of chronic bleeding torture.
The overall funding environment is extremely tight, and the interest rate hike meeting feels like a huge stone pressing on the chest.
This is the cruelest truth of the financial market.
Back when I failed in my startup and was burdened with millions in debt, I had already experienced this suffocating feeling of being gradually driven to the edge by the trend.
So I don’t bet on the bottom; I only follow the trend.
My profit has already doubled, breaking through 101.71%!
From 2568 all the way down to now, how many times have I been tempted by fake rebounds?
This is discipline.
The 2300 level is by no means a solid bottom; this level of correction is aimed at breaking through retail investors’ psychological defenses.
The real abyss is still ahead.
$BTC
$SOL
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC is repeatedly testing $80,000, but ETF funds are like a "split personality." What the hell are we supposed to be watching?
(1/6) Brothers who have been watching the market recently should feel a strong sense of division.
On one side, BTC is stuck in a dilemma around $80,000, with the 10-year US Treasury yield high, suppressing risk appetite; on the other side, the capital flow in spot ETFs is as erratic as a "split personality disorder."
Peeling back the emotions, let's talk about the underlying logic of the current market with data.
(2/6) First, look at a set of strange data:
Last week, the overall net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was about $301 million, seemingly warming up; but the cumulative net outflow in October is still $314 million. Even more absurd, a few days ago BlackRock (IBIT) set a record for single-day inflow this year (about $665 million), but just a few days later, the entire ETF market saw a massive single-day outflow of $635 million.
Conclusion: Institutions haven't fled, but the divergence is huge, all engaging in very short-term swing trading.
It's a real, hard-fought battle.
(3/6) Who is draining BTC's liquidity?
Oil prices surged, AI concept stocks pulled back, and US Treasury yields oscillated at high levels. Against this backdrop, big money is essentially jumping back and forth between "risk aversion" and "FOMO on the sidelines."
BTC now is like a sandwich cookie; technically, it still holds above the 50-week moving average, but with any slight macro tremor, the psychological support at $80,000 has to be repeatedly tested. Galaxy Research Bullish Outlook: Now Is the Best Time to Buy $BTC!
Key points from the research report:
1. Technicals Confirm Recovery: BTC holds above the 200-week moving average, after a 44-week correction, it has reclaimed the 50-week moving average. The maximum drawdown this cycle is 53%, the shallowest bear market in history, and the halving cycle has surpassed previous bottom windows.
2. Selling Pressure Is Disappearing: Coins held for over 5 years have seen their monthly transfer volume nearly halved compared to 2024. Macro speculators and basis arbitrage funds have cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, but long-term holders and institutional base positions remain solid.
3. Institutions Are Still Accumulating: Spot ETFs have increased holdings by about 87,000 BTC since the end of June. Even though the price previously dropped by a maximum of 53%, ETF holdings only fell 11% from peak to trough, indicating substantial capital has not exited.
4. Stronger Currency Depreciation Logic: U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, the annual fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5%. Massive debt, interest burdens, and credit expansion driven by AI investment make BTC, with its fixed supply, more attractive in the long term.
5. Market Sentiment Near Historical Bottom: In 2015 and 2018, Wall Street was enthusiastic about blockchain but neglected Bitcoin, which was then followed by major BTC rallies. Today, stablecoins, RWA, and stock tokenization are booming, but Bitcoin search interest has dropped to multi-year lows, a familiar scenario reemerging.The $80,000 level is being contested repeatedly; the most dangerous scenario might not be breaking below it, but rather this kind of false rebound.
What I’m more cautious about now is not BTC touching $80,000 again, but that as soon as the price stands back there, everyone treats it as a reversal. The 24-hour high is about $80,850, the low about $79,456, and the current price is near $80,000; this only indicates the price is tugging within a range and does not prove that buyers have taken control.
I break confirmation into two steps: first, see if it can close back above around $80,850, not just spike through intraday; second, see if it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback and form a higher low. Only if both happen does the rebound have a chance to upgrade from a "fill-in" to a structural repair. If it only briefly stands above $80,000 and then falls back into the range, with rebound highs getting lower each time, it looks more like bears using the rebound to shake out positions, and chasing in risks hitting selling pressure.
Conversely, don’t immediately assume a waterfall drop just because it can’t hold above. If the range low near $79,456 holds and selling pressure weakens, BTC may continue to consolidate; only a decisive break below this area with a failed rebound signals rebound failure and increased downside risk. My focus is not on whether $80,000 breaks or not, but whether there is follow-through after a breakout and whether the pullback is supported. Until I see these two, I don’t treat a sharp rally as a trend reversal nor rush to bet on one side.
$BTC #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily I'm a bit reluctant to chase this ETH short position anymore. The Delta between whales and retail has narrowed to -0.295; it was -1.2 at the deepest point this month, and previously around -0.35. The price hasn't really risen much, but the difference has been steadily moving back. It looks like the shorts are starting to pull back, but just from this line alone, it's unclear how many shorts have been closed or if any longs have been opened.
The troublesome part is, ETH is still at 2315, and the 15-minute 20 moving average at 2321 hasn't been reclaimed. Damn, looking at the data makes me want to buy, but looking at the candlesticks makes me want to pull back. If I force it now, going up near 2330 means running into those who just sold earlier, which is uncomfortable to hold. I'd rather see it rise back to 2325 first, then pull back to observe; even if it's a few bucks more expensive, at least I won't be waiting to break even right after buying.
If I really try, I'll only put in a small amount. If it drops below 2305 again, I won't stick around; I don't want to risk principal again at 2296. If it can bounce back to 2335, I'll probably take some profit first and then see about the remaining at 2344. The most tempting thing right now is the phrase "whales are about to turn bullish," which always makes me feel like a big green candle is coming next. But after waiting with a long position for a long time, what might come first is 2300 again.ETH is still grinding downwards, but the whale and retail Delta have narrowed from -0.35 earlier to -0.295 now; earlier this month it was at -1.2. The difference is moving closer to the zero line, yet the price hasn't followed. Holding long positions while looking at this data makes it really easy to hesitate to cut losses. But relying solely on this line, it's still uncertain whether big players are reducing shorts or retail positions have changed, and we definitely can't directly call the downtrend over.
Currently ETH is at 2315, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 2321, it bounced up to around 2330 this morning but was sold down again. For now, I don't want to rush into longs just because the indicators are improving. I'm more interested in watching the 2320–2325 range; if it bounces back but can't hold, there might be a small short opportunity. Damn, selling directly at 2315 feels too low, and below that 2300 and 2296 are close by, so if I short in there, I’d have to consider closing the position quickly. If I do go for it, I will exit above 2335—I don't want to face a rebound caused by whales reducing shorts and stubbornly hold on.
This set of data makes me less greedy for short profits, but it's still not enough for me to flip to long. First, let's see if ETH can reclaim 2321; I don't want the indicators to turn positive while the price is still below the moving average. If it can really hold above 2335, then I'll seriously consider going long. For now, I won't try to guess the bottom for it.A person only needs to catch two bull markets in their lifetime, but precisely because there are only two, many people have already lost the money they made in the first round before the second round even begins.
There was a detail in that post that left a deep impression on me: turning 50,000 principal into 10 million is 200 times, which is impossible by doing short-term trades every day; you can only wait for that continuous trend during the bull market, rolling up floating profits by adding positions. Fu Haitang back then went all in with 50,000 on cotton and made 120 million, following this path.
But the latter part is even more ruthless. He said he now only uses 2 to 3 million USDT for contracts, divides the rest of the money into three parts: one part buys wealth management and funds, one part buys high-dividend bank stocks, and one part is kept to buy broad-based ETFs during crashes; he also bought 10 million in insurance.
The logic is actually very simple: one-tenth of the money is used to gamble on excess returns, and nine-tenths is used to take the market average returns. The winnings from the gamble are then recycled back as ammunition for the gamble.
The worst-case scenario is that the contract account loses everything, but life goes on; the best case is multiple times the returns, elevating the lifestyle. He said that even if the 2.5 million USDT is all lost, it doesn't matter to him, but if he earns, it's several times over.
He also admitted that many people make money in bull markets, and quite a few make big money, but very few are willing to take profits during the bull market and then patiently wait for the next round. 90% of people cannot get rich twice.Crypto Watch This Week: Pause on Contracts, Slow Accumulation on Spot (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Contract traders, don’t rush this week—there were 4 double liquidations in 3 days, that’s brutal (´･_･`). Spot can be held; ETF outflows are faster than expected, which actually looks like a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Macro is weak: rising inflation, Fed hawkish bias, midterm elections looming, and clear balance sheet reduction (｡•́︿•̀｡). Last week, only BTC and XRP had net ETF inflows, with BTC mainly supported by BlackRock.
BTC shorts are heavily placed; bulls get crushed as soon as they show up; the 80,000 mark is fiercely defended, 75,000 is the next critical level, and if the 82,000 platform isn’t reclaimed, don’t talk about a reversal. After SEC’s classification, XRP is surprisingly resilient; 1.2 is the base, 1.3–1.4 is heavy resistance, RSI is neutral to weak, hold above 1.3 before considering adding, no front-running. SOL’s Alpenglow upgrade achieves finality at millisecond level, solid foundation but the macro environment isn’t supportive; 100 is a psychological barrier, hold it to target 108–110 trapped zone, RSI around 48, moving averages flat, October ETF slightly down but on-chain activity rising, can accumulate below 100 (๑¯◡¯๑).
Rhythm: watch contracts, accumulate spot in batches, don’t get emotional. Risk on you~
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the issuer opposes, the final product implementation may fail, and the expectations around tokenized stocks could be dashed. According to PANews, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have newly opposed OKX and ICE Markets' plan to tokenize their stocks under the SEC's innovation exemption, bringing the total number of opposing issuers to 26.
I think this deserves more attention than the narrative of "more institutions entering the market," but opposition does not mean the plan has been halted. ⚠️ First, there is a divergence between the issuers' attitudes and the platform's plan, increasing uncertainty about implementation; second, if the trading arrangements or holders' rights are unclear, ordinary users may easily mistake "tokenized stocks" for the stocks themselves, misjudging the risk exposure.
My risk control habit is to first list the maximum loss I can bear per trade, then verify the product rights and exit rules, not substituting concepts for terms. When facing such news-driven themes, how much stop loss do you usually set per trade for yourself?#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? $COIN Q3 revenue is very likely to be around $1.87 billion, exceeding the consensus of $1.8 billion. The real growth comes from Deribit and USDC, not the spot market you watch every day.
Deribit was consolidated for only 47 days but contributed $52 million in revenue, with options nominal trading volume hitting a record high and market share exceeding 75%. This is just the beginning; after full consolidation in Q4, the contribution from derivatives will further expand. USDC is even more stable, with stablecoin revenue at $355 million, a 44% year-over-year increase, driven by the natural growth of USDC balances in Coinbase products, largely independent of coin price fluctuations.
But whether spot trading revenue can rebound depends on the definition. Q3 total trading volume was $295 billion, significantly up from $185 billion last year, and trading revenue returned to over $1 billion. The problem is, while the global spot market grew 38% quarter-over-quarter, Coinbase only grew 25%, so its market share is shrinking. The moat of institutional trust is being slowly eroded by Binance and Bybit on the spot side.
Revenue improvement is certain, but the driving force has shifted from "retail spot trading" to "institutions playing derivatives + stablecoin interest income." If the market still values Coinbase based on spot trading volume, the earnings report will cause a very ugly earnings surprise.Last night I came across a post: The company behind Claude has submitted its IPO materials, the top AI player is heading to Nasdaq with the ticker ANT, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming to list the week of November 16, with a valuation targeting 2 trillion.
Looking at the books:
Revenue: $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, compared to only $1.2 billion last year, a fourteenfold increase; the second quarter was the first time they made a profit in a single quarter.
Books: Net loss of 80.7 billion, but 72.4 billion of that is accounting adjustments from valuation increases and convertible bonds recalculated at market price, not actual cash outflow; the real operating loss is only 693 million, and operating cash flow is still positive at 3.93 billion.
Capital spent: Nearly 9 billion spent on computing power in the first half, with future committed computing expenses of 518 billion, exceeding 100 billion each for Amazon and Google — the car hasn’t even run yet, but the fuel has been bought for several years in advance.
Risks: Two unnamed clients account for 23% of revenue, and the filing itself states "may not be able to maintain profitability."
Driver’s perspective: Everyone envies the huge revenue, but the car is rented, and the fuel is prepaid by themselves; at the end of the month, the profit isn’t even enough to cover costs. Revenue is for outsiders to see, the books are the life they have to live.
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Consensus expects Q3 revenue around $1.43 billion, EPS $0.56. Goldman Sachs data from September shows crypto trading volume up 21% quarter-over-quarter, event contracts up 37%, both far surpassing market consensus. Bernstein is even more direct, forecasting revenue of $1.473 billion and EPS of $0.60, both above consensus.
The key lies in the structure. Q2 event contract revenue was $156 million, already exceeding stock trading at $129 million and crypto at $100 million, becoming the largest source of trading revenue. Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil price contracts are turning the prediction market from sports betting into a financial speculation tool. Q3 event contract volume surged to 16.4 billion contracts, accelerating quarter-over-quarter. Although crypto looks weak year-over-year, Q3 trading volume was about 50 billion, up 22% quarter-over-quarter, halting the decline. Net inflows and user assets are still expanding, with net inflows of 4 billion in August alone and platform assets at 383.7 billion, the foundation remains solid.
Therefore, beating consensus is highly likely, and revenue hitting a quarterly record is almost certain. But the stock price has dropped 22% in a month; the market’s concern is not about missing numbers this quarter, but the policy risk of the prediction market and the sustainability of crypto recovery. Good numbers are easy; the hard part is convincing the market this is not a one-time overdraw.昨天刷到一条消息，我第一反应是：稳定币这出戏，主角要换人了。 据 PYMNTS 10 月 26 日报道，美国货币监理署（OCC）当天在社交平台上公开喊话社区银行：可以考虑自己、或者通过子公司去申请成为"获准的支付稳定币发行方"。注意措辞，它说的是"考虑申请"，不是"已经批准"，更不是"明天就能发"。 这条消息为什么值得单独写一篇？因为过去两年，稳定币的故事基本是大机构的剧本：大交易所、大支付公司、大银行。而社区银行是什么？就是美国小镇上、街角那家你认识柜员名字的银行。监管现在把话递到它们面前，等于在问：支付这条赛道，要不要也给小银行留一个入口？ 先把时间线捋清楚，免得被标题带偏： 第一，规则已经定了，生效还没到。GENIUS 法案 2025 年 7 月 18 日生效，OCC 的实施细则 10 月 21 日才最终发布，2027 年 1 月 18 日起生效。也就是说，现在是"规则已出、窗口未开"的过渡期。 第二，申请通道还没开。OCC 自己的实施页面写明，目前暂不受理发行方申请和豁免请求，要等相关表格的信息采集获批后才公布开放时间。按 OCC 的说法，材料基本齐全后 120 天内给决定——I just checked OKX BTC perpetual futures, and large traders have pushed their short positions to the most aggressive level in four days. I initially thought last night’s drop was a false alarm and that whales had eased their short exposure. I even said I’d admit my mistake if the short-position ratio fell below 0.912 before noon today. At 11:00, it stood at 0.910. I was wrong. Meanwhile, the long-short ratio climbed to a four-day high of 2.23, meaning longs outnumber shorts by more than 2 to 1. Most people seeing this set of numbers would probably first label Ethereum as "institutional retreat." SoSoValue data shows that on October 26 Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $88.5769 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading with an outflow of $105 million.
On the other hand, I think this data tests the issuers' ability to retain customers more realistically than it indicates the direction of $ETH. One reason is that Fidelity's FETH had a net inflow of $16.1295 million during the same period, showing that fund movements differ across products; calling them all bearish institutions is too simplistic.
Another reason is that the outflow amount ranking is not the redemption rate ranking. ETHA's historical cumulative net inflow of $12.156 billion does not equal its current asset size and cannot be directly used to calculate redemption pressure. I will focus on the differences in fund retention among issuers and will not judge winners or losers based on absolute amounts for now. $BTC keeps struggling around 80,000 but just can't hold above it.
The bullish is already gone. At this level, big investors think it's expensive, and no one wants to take over the position. Retail bulls are trapped and simply give up, lying flat and letting it slide. The 81,000 barrier has been tested several times never broken.
A pullback to 75,000 or 76,000 is inevitable; it's only a matter of time before the floodgate opens.
On the Ethereum side, 2,000 is beckoning.$ETH $ZEC #DailyOrbit After starting a small company, I've noticed a discouraging habit in new business ventures: before even estimating how many orders can be taken, the first step is to calculate potential disputes and how much money must be reserved on the books. I view the news about stock tokenization the same way.
According to Eleanor Terrett's article, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have also raised objections to OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) tokenizing their stocks under the US SEC's innovation exemption mechanism without their consent, bringing the total number of opposing companies to 26.
My judgment is that this is a somewhat negative signal for the input-output expectations of the related business, but it does not directly mean that stock tokenization is unfeasible. The technology can produce the product, but whether this business can sustain profitability is a separate matter; what needs to be re-evaluated now is the latter.
If corporate objections increase coordination and legal costs, then the revenue generated from transactions must first cover these expenses. If product arrangements need to be adjusted as a result, initial investments may take longer to recover, and cash flow pressure will increase. This is my speculation, not a confirmed subsequent development. Risk reserves cannot be cut either; otherwise, a seemingly good business on paper could face liquidity issues when disputes arise.
What I am more interested in is how the involved parties factor these potential costs in, rather than just hearing about how large the market space is. Friends in business, if you were responsible for this line of business, would you set aside a separate reserve for such disputes, or wait until responsibilities are clearly defined before investing?Crypto markets often reward price moves with instant narratives, but the four tokens in Tuesday's tape tell a more disciplined story. $HYPE traded at 77.38, up 1.3% over 24 hours, yet open interest slipped 1.3% by coin count across six-hour position data. That divergence matters: price is recovering without a matching build in leverage. The rally looks real, but it is not yet explained by expanding contract size, which keeps the move on probation rather than in conviction territory. 🪁 $BICO offThe biggest Fed risk the market should be wary of right now is not the current pause in rate cuts, but the hidden possibility of restarting rate hikes later, which is the biggest invisible pressure in this macro cycle.
Combining the latest Reuters surveys and inflation data, the market consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this time, but the core risk remains unresolved. Recent U.S. inflation data has shown strong resilience with a slower decline than expected, leading many economists and institutions to reprice the probability of future rate hikes.
In the past, the market logic was simple: expect rate cuts and liquidity easing to boost risk assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. But now the logic has completely changed: rate cut expectations continue to be disappointed, the easing window keeps getting delayed, and even tightening expectations are making a comeback.
This means the market has shifted from "waiting for liquidity" to "being ready for tightening at any time," which puts a completely different kind of pressure on crypto assets.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market; most negative factors have already been priced in. Often, after the "no rate cut" outcome is confirmed, it is easier to see a relief rally. In the short term, a high probability of volatile fluctuations is expected. The key focus should be on whether the Fed’s statements leave room for future rate hikes, as this will determine the medium-term direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Bitcoin ETF this week, money is flowing out and then flowing back in 💸
According to Decrypt citing SoSoValue data: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $636 million last Thursday, and another outflow of about $138 million on Friday; but considering the inflows from previous days, the whole week still saw a net inflow of about $301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of net outflows. However, the entire month of October still has a net outflow of about $314 million.
HashKey researcher Tim Sun's view is that this decline is mainly a global risk asset correction, with the market doubting the valuation of AI tech stocks. He sees $75,000 as the next key support.
Today at 14:05 (Beijing time), OKEx spot $BTC is about 79,916 USDT, still just below 80,000.
My understanding: institutions are not retreating all at once, but rather reducing positions and observing before the interest rate decision and the US midterm elections on November 3. What’s really worth watching is where ETF flows go after the interest rate decision.
Do you watch ETF capital flows to judge direction?
Personal opinion, not investment advice $ETH ETH's RSI dropped to 33.7. What happened the last time it was at this level?
The technical indicators are sending extreme signals. ETH's daily RSI fell to 33.7, approaching the oversold red line. The last time it touched this area was on October 13 — followed by a 5.18% plunge within 24 hours to $2,412. But a similar reading also appeared earlier on June 5, after which it rebounded 26% over the next two weeks. Both oversold, yet the outcomes were vastly different.
The key difference lies in the on-chain capital flow. In June, exchanges saw a net outflow of 223,800 ETH, indicating accumulation at the bottom; this time on October 22, there was an outflow of 169,770 ETH, the direction is consistent but the scale shrank by 24%. More troubling is the ETF side bleeding for four consecutive weeks, with another $221 million outflow last week, 90% of which came from BlackRock's ETHA redemptions.
Three levels will determine the short-term trend: 2,283 (October 24 low, breaking below sets a new low) → 2,240 (August rebound starting point, mid-term lifeline) → 2,159 (200-day moving average, losing this points to the 1,820 vacuum zone).
The bulls need at least two of these three conditions to be met simultaneously for a counterattack: daily volume surging above 25 billion, ETF turning to net inflows, and the Fed's October 28 statement leaning dovish. Missing one means continued consolidation between 2,283-2,350. Conversely, if 2,240 breaks down on low volume, bears will dominate the next pricing round. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议