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ZEC is currently trading at about $1,297, up 3.16% in 24 hours, showing strength against the trend as Bitcoin falls below $80,000, making it one of the few assets recently outperforming the market. A key technical turning point has appeared: the daily MACD has just crossed above the signal line again, the histogram has turned positive after being negative for a whole month, and the RSI has risen to 51.93 and crossed above its own moving average, ending its previous state of staying below the moving average. The price oscillated around $1,235 throughout October, with buying pressure entering on dips and selling pressure encountered on breakouts. To confirm a recovery, it needs to reclaim $1,390 on the upside; the trendline support is near $1,170, and a daily close below $952 would invalidate the entire structure. There are three news points worth watching. October 28 marks ZEC's 10th anniversary; Grayscale's research head pointed out that its model of allocating 20% of block rewards to a development fund helped the network survive the long bear market. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed a draft on October 26 suggesting to end the automatic 8% block subsidy flow to community grants and redirect it to a network sustainability mechanism, reasoning that the ZCG treasury has accumulated about $125 million with annual expenses of only about $6 million, resulting in a serious surplus of funds. Signals from the derivatives side are complex: 74% of whales on Hyperliquid are long, there is a $4 million sell wall at $1,232, and longs and shorts are locked in a very narrow range; any forced liquidation of one side could trigger a chain reaction. The defense quality between $1,170 and $1,235 is more worth watching than any single indicator.Nightclub girl's diary of going ashore to trade crypto
BTC is about to hit a resistance level, so I'm openly setting up short positions!
The previous drop already broke below 79,000, and now with this rebound, I plan to catch the pullback after the bounce.
The logic is actually very simple: it's a gamble on a secondary pullback after a weak rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is just below the previously broken dense chip area, which is a strong resistance for this rebound.
BTC is pulling up from 80,000, but the trading volume can't keep up—this is a typical low-volume bull trap, looking lively but lacking buying momentum.
This kind of low-volume rebound is the easiest to trap people; it looks like a stable counterattack, but mostly it's just shorts covering pushing the price up.
Once it faces pressure and turns down near 81,488, that's a comfortable shorting opportunity.
But you have to keep a backup plan: if volume surges and it holds above this resistance, then this bearish idea fails and you shouldn't stubbornly hold on.
Before the market settles, no one can guarantee anything. Low-volume rebounds have very low tolerance for error, so leverage must be light. Nightclub girls cashing out to trade crypto diary
The US and Canada have started tightening interest payments on stablecoins. To put it simply: payments are for payments, hoarding coins is for hoarding coins.
This round of regulation is not just drawing a simple line; the core is to cut off the path of "earning interest just by holding stablecoins."
The final rule from the US OCC will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers cannot pay interest directly just because users hold the tokens. Interestingly, the clause in the draft that "third-party rewards are directly considered violations" was removed and replaced with case-by-case review, effectively leaving a loophole for exchanges and similar third parties.
Canada has also started a 60-day consultation, planning to ban non-financial issuers from distributing yields to coin holders, to be implemented in fall 2027.
Many people's first reaction is that this is good news for Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s not really a giveaway. The regulators want to firmly keep stablecoins positioned as payment tools, not to let them become substitutes for bank deposits.
The future landscape is gradually becoming clear: stablecoins are for transfers and payments; BTC is mainly for value storage and hoarding.
However, the US banking industry is already in an uproar. The banking association directly criticized the OCC’s rules, saying they will accelerate deposit outflows and squeeze community banks’ lending capacity.
The tug-of-war is far from over, and the detailed rules on stablecoin yields may still see repeated changes, with considerable uncertainty.
For the market, short-term sentiment disturbance is limited; long-term it is reshaping the capital logic. The space for earning passive income on stablecoins is gradually restricted, and funds will reconsider allocations among bank deposits, stablecoins, and BTC. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, a result already fully priced in by the market. What truly matters is the wording of the statement and the guidance from the chair's press conference — this will determine whether a rate hike in December is "highly likely" or "certain." The key contradiction lies in: inflation remains elevated (September core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, 3.7% year-over-year) vs. marginal weakening in employment and growth (September nonfarm payrolls only 29,000). The Federal Reserve tends to "wait and see before acting," postponing the rate hike window to December, using more data from October-November to verify the persistence of inflation. Tonight is the decision night, there are a few numbers that are more useful than guessing the rise or fall
First, about last night's early moves: Micron rose 2.34%, the Nasdaq rose a bit over 1%, and Bitcoin also touched 80835. It looked lively, but the double high at 80850 wasn’t surpassed before sleep. If you’re really determined to go long, you wouldn’t miss these 15 points
Next, the rate is still positive, those going long are still paying rent. After a week of decline, there are still many bottom-fishers, but this doesn’t look like a bottom. The bottom comes when no one dares to bottom fish
Also MSTR, which just dropped 4.24% on Monday, Coinbase also fell nearly 3%. Both coin buyers and exchange operators are being sold off, this is more honest than candlestick charts
So now, outside is rushing in, inside is retreating. The phrase at 2 AM tonight is here to pierce through this paper-thin layer
My plan is simple: if 80850 holds, I’ll admit defeat and chase a bit; if it doesn’t hold, I’ll keep watching. If 79200 breaks, don’t reach out to catch it. Don’t be reckless before the knife falls
Anyone staying up late tonight, or are you all preparing to wake up and see the result?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $MSTR US and Canada Tighten Stablecoin Interest Payments: Payments Are Payments, Hoarding Is Hoarding
The core of this round of stablecoin regulation in the US and Canada is not simply "drawing boundaries," but cutting off the path of "earning interest just by holding."
The US OCC's final rule will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers are prohibited from directly paying interest to users for holding tokens. More importantly, the draft's "third-party rewards are presumed violations" clause was removed and replaced with case-by-case review—effectively leaving a workable loophole for exchanges and other third parties. Canada has launched a 60-day consultation, proposing to ban non-financial institution issuers from paying yields to holders, effective fall 2027.
For BTC, in the short term, don’t treat it as "free tokens." Regulators are pressing stablecoins into payment tools, prohibiting them from becoming deposit substitutes, which actually clarifies BTC’s role as a "store of value": stablecoins are for spending, BTC is for hoarding.
But the US banking sector is already in uproar. The American Bankers Association criticizes the OCC for enabling deposit migration and threatening community bank lending. This tug-of-war is far from over, and stablecoin yield rules may still fluctuate.
$BTC $ETH
#美加稳定币监管明确收益边界
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been tugging back and forth around $80,000, but this week it faces a triple macro event overlap — this is not ordinary volatility, but a liquidity stress test. Wednesday's Fed rate decision, Thursday's US GDP and PCE inflation data, and Friday's roughly $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry all fall in the same week. What the market fears most is never bad news, but the concentrated release of uncertainty. First, looking at the structure: BTC previously struggled to break above $84,600, then fell back to the starting point, indicating real selling pressure above. $80,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears; the longer the price lingers here, the more leverage accumulates, and the pin effect of Friday's options expiry combined with market makers' hedging will more easily amplify volatility. The real risk is not direction, but rhythm — sudden sharp drops often happen when consensus is most relaxed. My judgment is cautious: if $80,000 is lost again, $76,000 will come into the retest view; conversely, only by holding above $82,000 can there be a short-term qualification to challenge $84,000 again. These two price levels carry more information than any prediction. $ETH and $ZEC will also be influenced by overall risk appetite, but this week's main focus is $BTC's options and the macro calendar. A second layer of logic worth emphasizing: the market generally treats the Fed decision as the sole variable but underestimates the timing mismatch between options expiry and macro data. After digesting Wednesday's decision, Friday's $11 billion expiry is the real liquidity event.Nightclub girls' diary of getting into crypto trading
Right now, the crypto market is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with oscillations and spikes destined to be the main theme.
$BTC has seen tight capital recently, with 12-hour bullish and bearish forces almost balanced, bears holding a slight edge. Most of the liquidations are from longs, with 6,997,700 U worth of long positions wiped out. There’s a cluster of short orders piled up at 81,142, while 79,494 is where long positions are concentrated. The current price is stuck between these two liquidation zones, increasing the risk of back-and-forth spikes.
$ETH shows bulls slightly stronger, but this advantage is unstable, and opinions remain divided. Many long orders are buried below 2,279, with pain points close to the current price. It basically follows $BTC and lacks the strength to form an independent one-sided trend.
$ZEC is also in a weakly balanced state, with bulls slightly stronger over 12 hours, but most liquidations are still from longs. It moves in sync with mainstream coins, with capital distribution balanced and no clear direction—typical consolidation and shakeout.
The common points for these three coins are clear: large divergence, capital fighting back and forth, and concentrated liquidation chips both above and below. In the short term, it’s highly likely to continue with back-and-forth spikes. Chasing rallies or selling into dips easily leads to losses on both ends. In this kind of market, controlling the rhythm is far more important than guessing the direction of price movements. Nightclub hostess's diary on landing and trading crypto
Funds are only flowing into Bitcoin, which hardly counts as a market-wide recovery.
On October 26, spot ETF data clearly diverged: BTC had a net inflow of $110.3 million, stopping the previous day's outflow of $137.9 million. In contrast, ETH continued to flow out with $88.58 million leaving, and SOL also saw an outflow of $8.2 million.
Although Bitcoin is seeing some capital return, the strength is quite average; the money that left yesterday hasn't been fully replenished today.
Money is coming in, but the price isn't keeping up, signaling that selling pressure above remains. ETH lacks incremental buying and is noticeably weaker. Once Bitcoin fails and turns downward, ETH will be the first to break, with key support levels easily breached. SOL's rebound looks resilient, but capital sentiment is cautious, so don't expect sustained strength.
In short, institutions are not fully entering to bottom-fish; they are merely reducing risk exposure and only dare to hold BTC as a safe haven.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. Until Bitcoin firmly breaks resistance levels, ETH and SOL rebounds should be seen as weak recoveries, so don't rush to go long. $BTC $ETH $SOL The Hormuz opening plan continues to be discussed, and oil prices have fallen. For risk assets, this might be a chance to catch a breath, but the reasons behind the decline need to be clarified.
If the market is trading on supply restoration, crude oil can be transported more smoothly, easing energy cost pressures, which helps many businesses and consumers. Such a drop in oil prices usually makes people more hopeful about an improved economic environment.
However, if the oil price decline comes from a clear weakening in demand, the implications are completely different. Less production by companies and less travel by consumers can also pressure crude oil, but risk assets may not feel comfortable because of it.
Therefore, I wouldn’t just label BTC as macro-favorable simply because oil prices turned green. I would also look at whether the stock market and other commodities show the same judgment—whether the market is betting on supply improvement or worrying about growth.
The changes brought by the current negotiation news are worth attention, but there’s no need to interpret a single decline as all inflation pressures being resolved. The actual procurement cost transmission to company accounts still takes time.
What’s been most exhausting recently is that every candlestick is accompanied by a complete story. I’d rather take it slower and clarify the reasons. Even if oil prices fall, buying into “supply restoration” versus buying into “demand weakening” can lead to very different experiences.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Hynix's earnings report is approaching, and this time I want to hear more about Solidigm.
On October 23, the company announced it would stop evaluating potential IPO and pre-IPO financing plans for Solidigm. But the announcement also made it clear: the need for capacity expansion and investment still exists, and other financing methods will continue to be explored.
What concerns me about this is that the financial arrangements have changed, but the money needed for the business has not disappeared.
If the original plan was to support new US capacity through external financing, and now that path is paused, it’s worth asking how and when the investment will proceed next. Whether the group invests directly or seeks other capital will affect fund allocation.
This also touches on another issue shareholders care about: how to balance capacity expansion and cash returns.
Progress on HBM4 is certainly important, but a company doesn’t operate solely on its hottest product line. The construction, financing, and capital arrangements of other businesses can also impact valuation.
I don’t think pausing the subsidiary’s IPO is necessarily a bad thing. When market conditions are unfavorable, not rushing to sell asset stakes may better serve existing shareholders’ interests. But a feasible alternative plan must be presented next.
It’s good if products sell well; good financial arrangements are what make that growth more stable. I hope management covers both aspects thoroughly in today’s conference call.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Before this rate decision, I specifically reviewed the minutes from the last meeting. There's a detail worth discussing: the Federal Reserve mentioned that it can purchase short-term Treasury securities if necessary to maintain ample bank reserves.
Seeing the words "purchase Treasury securities," the crypto community easily gets excited, immediately associating it with a new round of easing. But what problem this operation actually solves needs to be clarified first.
Supplementing reserves to maintain the normal operation of the money market is different in purpose and transmission from large-scale purchases of long-term assets to lower financing costs. Focusing only on the words "buy bonds" can easily lead to misreading a technical operation as a policy shift.
In this meeting, I will pay attention to operational arrangements beyond the interest rate statement: whether there are changes in reserve management and how the authorities explain them. Even if relevant adjustments occur, they need to be judged in combination with scale, duration, and implementation purpose.
Of course, I hope BTC will enjoy a more favorable funding environment. But if every time we see changes in the central bank's balance sheet, we immediately shout that the bull market is back, we will only confuse our own judgment.
Monetary policy is already complex enough; there is no need to flatten it with a few emotional labels. Rather than rushing to share "easing confirmed," I want to confirm through which channels this money enters the market and how long its impact will last. It's still timely to get excited after understanding it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After BTC fell below 80,000, the on-chain trend suddenly changed: retail investors are moving coins to exchanges, while whales are locking coins back up 🔒
In the past 24 hours, the amount of BTC deposited by retail investors has surged to a 6-month high. Translation: scared of the drop, they transfer first, ready to hit the sell button anytime 😰 Exchange deposit addresses are as busy as a clearance sale.
On the other hand, the amount of BTC whales deposit to exchanges has shrunk from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. What does this mean? Big players have no intention to deliver at this price 🤔 The door isn’t just locked from the inside; they simply don’t want to open it.
So the picture becomes: retail investors anxiously queueing to hand over chips below, while whales quietly watch the show above, casually picking up the bloodied coins 🎭 You might think cutting losses is stop-lossing, but it could just be a change of ownership.
The most painful cycle for retail investors: afraid to miss out when prices rise, afraid of going to zero when prices fall, always a half-beat behind 📉 Whales don’t shout signals, they just watch on-chain actions.
The above is based on on-chain data analysis and does not constitute any trading advice ⚠️$BTW plunged to 0.87 yesterday (-47%) in one sharp drop, then bounced back to 1.74 today, up 53%. I only dare to watch and trade lightly with this kind of coin.
I just hit the top and got stopped out three times.
Its trading style over the past month can be summed up in four words: long and short both get hit.
Started at 0.5 at the end of September, on October 14th it squeezed shorts driven by Binance's hype to 2.75, with shorts liquidated for $2.9 million in one day; after the spike, it dropped back to 1.8 in two days, then repeatedly poked between 1.6 and 2.1. Last Friday it fell to 1.2, dropped directly to 0.87 yesterday, and pulled back to 1.74 today.
After a big bullish candle comes a big bearish one; those chasing highs and bottom fishing get buried alternately.
My next judgment: this is an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Resistance at 1.87 and 2.08 is heavy with trapped positions; only 15% circulating supply, with more unlocking and selling pressure ahead. The near-zero fees indicate no shorts are being squeezed. This wave is bottom fishing, not a short squeeze.
My plan: don’t chase above 1.87; wait for volume to hold above 1.87 before lightly going long, targeting 2.08; also can buy on a stable pullback to 1.48–1.50; if it breaks 1.40, this rebound is invalid, watch 1.20.
Use small position and low leverage on contracts; this kind of market can spike and liquidate you twice in one move.
Do you think it will make a second run at 2.75, or continue stepping down after the rebound?
$BTW $BTC
#Bitway #Contract $ETH is bearish. In this +2.13% bullish candle, short positions worth $17.22 million were liquidated, while long positions only liquidated $3.77 million. The price increase is mainly driven by shorts being forced to cover. There are no clear signs of new leveraged longs; the funding rates for the three periods are slightly positive, which can only be considered background. The put/call open interest is basically balanced, but the put/call ratio of the day's trades surged to 2.79, indicating that some are concentrating on buying protection during the rise. The largest volume on the chart falls on the bullish candle, but much of this volume consists of shorts covering their positions, and after this squeeze, there is no follow-up. The descending trendline and moving averages are still aligned bearish overhead, and the price closed at the 24-hour high of 2,358.69, just below resistance. The short squeeze is nearing its end, and a pullback to test 2,296.3 is expected. Bullish reversal conditions: price holds above 2,358.69 and breaks through the descending trendline, which would invalidate this bearish view.In the latest disclosure of the eleven bosses' position updates, the ZEC short position has been closed, while the BTC and ETH long positions are still held. The key difference is not just how much profit was made, but whether the profit has been realized and what risks the remaining positions still bear. 📊 Breaking down the three positions: BTC: 30X full position, holding 1 BTC, margin 2691.82U; opening average price 79801.9U, marked price at disclosure 80754.8U, unrealized profit +952.84U, return rate +35.82%. ETH: also 30X full position, holding 1 ETH, margin 78.15U; opening average price 2285.95U, marked price at disclosure 2344.78U, unrealized profit +58.82U, return rate +77.19%. ZEC: 10X isolated margin short position, historical max position 2000 ZEC, opening average price 872.88U, closing average price 863.74U; realized profit disclosed +17293.96U, return rate +9.90%. 💡 My view. ETH has a higher return rate, but BTC has a larger unrealized profit amount. You cannot judge which trade contributed more just by percentage, nor mix unrealized profit with realized profit as total account profit. Closing the ZEC position ended the price exposure of this short, but it does not mean the remaining two long positions have a safety cushion. BTC and ETH move in the same direction; if they both pull back simultaneously, the unrealized profits of both may shrink together; under full position mode, risk cannot be understood simply by the margin listed for each position. Rather than using this profit to prove the strategy hasBitcoin has been fluctuating around $80,000 throughout October. On-chain data explains the reason: this price is stuck between two key cost lines.
The resistance above comes from spot ETF investors. Glassnode data shows that the weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is about $81,500. Every time the price rebounds to this range, it encounters many holders waiting to break even and exit. They entered at highs between late 2025 and early 2026, have been at a floating loss for months, and tend to sell once they break even. There are two support levels below. The first is the real market average price (the average buy cost of the entire market after excluding long-term inactive coins), about $77,500 to $78,000. The second is the average cost of short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days), about $74,600. The $80,000 price is sandwiched in the middle: above, some are eager to exit; below, the defense line has not yet been reached. But looking further, the underlying structure is much more stable than it appears. The realized price across the entire network (the weighted average price of all Bitcoins' last on-chain transfer) is about $54,000, and the average cost of long-term holders (those holding coins for over six months) is only about $49,000. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $XRP
This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give advance notice.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to hastily judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leverage funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL is supported by spot but futures are still retreating.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has expanded to $7.83 billion, indicating short-term buying has returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not yet over.
ETH spot net inflow in 4 hours is $51.64 million, futures net inflow is $221 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, 30-day spot net outflow is $3.77 billion, futures net outflow is $8.29 billion. Short-term replenishment is stronger than BTC, but mid-term capital structure remains weak.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $8.66 million, futures net inflow is $4.53 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures net outflow is $58.94 million. The 30-day futures cumulative net outflow is $2.17 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but leverage funds remain cautious about the rebound.
BTC short-term funds are flowing back, ETH futures funds are rushing in, and SOL spot support is most obvious. It currently looks more like capital replenishment after continuous retreat, not a trend reversal yet. Continue to watch if the rebound can bring sustained incremental volume; otherwise, there is still a risk of pullback after a rally.The most fragile link in silver has never been its slow rise, but that it is always the first to be pulled away to absorb selling when the macro narrative is at its hottest. Can your long silver positions withstand a "false breakout followed by a pullback"? Over the weekend, I reviewed that 5–7 year silver roadmap, and at first glance, I was indeed dazzled by numbers like 269, 410–569. But what really made me pause was that it marked the most fragile node in February 2027: looking for a phased bottom in the 37–39 range. In other words, even the bulls admit there will be a retracement big enough to clear leverage along the way.💫 The signal I see is very clear: 36.57–38.82 is an area where multiple Fibonacci levels and wave structures overlap; such resonance zones are often not starting points but battlegrounds where bulls and bears repeatedly tug back and forth. And the 29.86 line looks more like a script’s lifeline—once broken, the entire wave count becomes invalid, and the narrative instantly shifts from a "long bull path" to "structural failure." Looking at crypto, silver’s rhythm is actually a mirror of risk appetite. When it strengthens, it usually corresponds to a warming narrative around physical assets and inflation hedging, with BTC often benchmarked as "digital gold" telling the same story; but once it repeatedly false-breaks at resonance levels, speculative heat on the altcoin side tends to retreat first, because capital becomes more selective about depth of absorption rather than blindly chasing narratives. Beta assets like ETH are most sensitive to this sentiment switch. The bullish path is also clear: if the 37–39 range really holds, gold continues to rise, the gold-silver ratio compresses toward 30–40, then silver’s elasticity willIn the 24-hour liquidation statistics for October 28, ETH and ZEC short liquidations were significantly higher than long liquidations, while BTC was nearly balanced. Compared to just looking at total liquidation amounts, this directional difference is more worth breaking down. ETH: Total liquidation of 35.609 million U, accounting for 26.88%; longs 8.1562 million U, shorts 27.4528 million U. It has the largest liquidation scale among the three and is the main target under short pressure in this round. BTC: Total liquidation of 17.0729 million U, accounting for 12.89%; longs 8.9886 million U, shorts 8.0844 million U. Long liquidations are slightly higher, so the same explanation of "shorts being squeezed out" cannot be applied. ZEC: Total liquidation of 6.3653 million U, accounting for 4.80%; longs 0.6618 million U, shorts 5.7035 million U. The total is lower than ETH, but the directional skew in liquidations is more pronounced. 💡 My view. Liquidation amounts record passive exits, not new buying, and cannot be directly taken as the overall market long-short positions. ETH and ZEC data support the interpretation of concentrated short pressure but are insufficient to prove sustained capital relay in the upward trend; BTC’s two-way liquidations remind us that synchronization between coins is lacking. Next, I pay more attention to the follow-up after liquidation: if volume follows when prices strengthen and open interest (OI) increases again, there is more reason to discuss new participation; if prices rise but OI continues to decline, be cautious that the market is mainly driven by position exits, and after momentum fades, a pullback may occur. Are you more focused on the follow-up after ETH liquidation or BTC?#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Brothers, Strategy (MSTR) is about to release its earnings report. Many will get excited seeing this quarter's numbers—according to the new FASB rules, Bitcoin rose in Q3, resulting in a direct $21 billion book gain on the balance sheet, with EPS potentially hitting double digits.
Old Mo advises you to cool down first. This money is "calculated," not "realized".
Recall last quarter, when the coin price dropped, the same company recorded an $8.3 billion book loss. The income statement followed the candlestick roller coaster, making it meaningless.
What really matters is that their actions changed this quarter. In Q3, they very prudently bought only 334 BTC but repurchased $193 million of STRC preferred stock and even raised the buyback authorization to $3 billion.
Got it? Previously, they were crazily issuing debt to buy coins; now they are paying down debt to reduce leverage. After all, that 12% dividend on preferred stock is a rigid expense that must be paid in cold hard cash.
Old Mo says: The $21 billion profit is for retail investors to see; stopping unlimited accumulation is for institutions. This company is transforming from a "crazy coin hoarder" to a "capital manager." When the earnings report comes out, watch their mNAV premium/discount closely—it’s much more useful than focusing on that inflated EPS.
What do you think about Strategy's strategic shift? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $BTC $SOL That's indeed the case. In two days, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of over 770 million, with last week's inflows completely withdrawn, and long-term holding addresses reduced by more than 50,000 coins. This isn't retail investors dumping; it's large funds actively buying back. Even gold is softening, and everyone prefers to hold cash and wait.
But when I watch the futures market, I feel conflicted. Prices are grinding below key levels, yet positions aren't decreasing. The total open interest is increasing day by day, and most liquidations are on long positions. The spot side is withdrawing, while the leveraged side is gambling; both sides are opposing each other, and neither yields.
The divergence among the four is clear: BTC, ETH, and SOL positions are all increasing; SOL is still hovering around the 100 level; ZEC is even rising against the trend with the most aggressive position increases. The more the market struggles, the more people seek refuge in the smaller players. This kind of structure is most vulnerable to a missed news trigger, which would cause a cascade on the leveraged side first.
Looking ahead, there are two potential triggers. Tonight, consumer confidence data will be released; early Thursday morning, the interest rate decision will be announced. A no-change decision is basically expected; the risk lies in the wording and the press conference. If the chairperson is firm, the tension for December remains. These two potential shocks could explode in the same direction, and the leveraged positions below key levels are the fuel. Before that, the market will likely continue to grind.
I'm not worried about whether this counts as panic; I focus on the structure: spot money is leaving, leveraged money is gambling. If the structure isn't fixed, the difference between grinding and a cascade is just one piece of news. As long as ETF flows don't turn positive for a day, any rebound should be seen as a pullback. I'm not rushing to bottom-fish. Real stabilization requires outflows to narrow, long-term holding addresses to stop decreasing, and ETH funding to improve. Only when these three signals align should we talk about catching up on gains. For now, controlling your impulses is more important than guessing the bottom 👀.There are only a few paths to making tens of millions, but the luck and risk vary greatly among them:
1. Early-stage low-price long-term holding (most common)
Investing early in coins like SOL and PEPE, holding without selling casually, and catching a big bull market that multiplies your investment dozens or even hundreds of times. Heavy positions can directly roll into huge profits. The difficulty is enduring long periods of volatility and sharp drops without cutting losses.
2. Catching a big market move with heavy short-term positions
Hitting extreme market conditions (sharp rises and falls, explosive positive news), using high leverage and precisely timing the main upward wave. This is the riskiest approach; you might make tens of millions once, but if you get the next heavy position wrong, you can easily lose it all. Leverage liquidation is common in crypto.
3. Running Ponzi schemes/contract signal services, communities, and monetizing traffic
Not profiting from trading itself, but from membership fees, commissions, and referral rewards. Many appear to make big money trading but are actually earning from others’ losses. This area often crosses legal boundaries.
4. Primary market, new token launches, whitelist
Getting early low-cost tokens and selling them at high prices after listing. High entry barriers requiring insider resources.
Reality check:
Getting rich quickly in crypto is extremely rare and subject to survivor bias. You only see those who made tens of millions, while many others using the same methods lose everything. Most who get rich through leverage end up paying it back to the market.
This information is for market observation only and does not constitute trading advice. 81% vs 25%: On the same night of earnings reports, the casino set wildly different odds for Microsoft and Google.
Tonight after the US market close, Microsoft and Google will report earnings on the same night, with Amazon following tomorrow night.
These three companies hold nearly $1.7 trillion in signed but undelivered orders, yet plan to burn up to $600 billion this year building AI.
Cloud growth expectations are each more aggressive than the last: Google Cloud +95.1%, Azure +47.7%, AWS +38.2%.
But cash flow tells a different story: Microsoft expects to still have over $8 billion in free cash flow this quarter, while Google and Amazon are expected to burn cash.
Last week Meta delivered better-than-expected results but still fell 7%; now it depends on whether the cloud business can justify the cash burn.
My view: The casino’s lack of confidence in Google isn’t a bearish bet on Google itself, but reflects expectations so low that even beating them is tough. Tonight’s real test isn’t EPS, but whether free cash flow can provide a floor. Failure points: Microsoft Azure growth below 45%, or Google Cloud growth under 90%, or all three raising capital expenditure guidance again.
Who are you betting on tonight: Microsoft holding steady at an 81% win rate, or Google making a comeback in the 25% long shot?
$GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
#Google #EarningsReport Negative news can't shake it, is Bitcoin gearing up for a big move?🚀
1. Trading crypto is increasingly like guessing Trump's "next move"♟️; one sentence from him can stir oil prices, US stocks, and the crypto market.
2. Over the weekend, US oil $CL surged to 105, clearly hitting Trump's tolerance line. He immediately said he wouldn't strike Iran today, causing oil prices to drop 5%, and both crypto and US stocks finally caught a breather📉➡️📈.
3. What about $BTC going forward? Judging by this move, Trump is not ignoring the market; if it falls hard, he'll ease up. Downside risk is relatively limited, recent pullbacks are significant, so consider buying the dip; those who have bottomed out should be patient⏳.
4. Recent negative news clusters: US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen... but Bitcoin only dropped about 2% from 82,000 to 80,000, showing more resilience than US stocks, which itself is a bullish signal💪.
5. The current feeling is: negative news can't really shake it, after the drop it can still bounce back; if positive news comes later, the upside potential is huge. Besides easing geopolitical tensions, inflation data might also bring some warmth. Be patient, watch the strong support at 78,200; act if it hits, otherwise wait🎯.
6. Over the weekend I mentioned, oil prices are in a five-wave rise, with the fifth wave nearing the top⛽️. If oil prices continue to fall, risk appetite may recover, making the crypto rebound window worth watching👀.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $SOXL This position has been held for so long, and finally, I see a return. Next, let's see if it can rebound to around POC 102 as the next take-profit target.
The biggest test coming up is the Federal Reserve decision early Thursday morning this week.
Since a rate hike in October is now a high-probability event, what I hope most is that Powell's speech won't be too hawkish.
Although considering the current US inflation, economy, and employment environment, I judge that he will most likely lean hawkish, but according to his usual style, it should only be mildly hawkish, not enough to shock the market too much.
Moreover, if tech giants like Google and Amazon really deliver good earnings reports as expected, the bulls might still celebrate for a few more days, and everyone can have a happy weekend together.
Of course, these days every hurdle is tough, especially good earnings reports don't necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
Every hurdle is hard, but every hurdle must be overcome. Let's wait and see.FOMC countdown is on; the market is not really trading on "whether to raise rates or not," but on how Powell manages December expectations. The 90% probability of holding steady has long been priced in, so the decision itself is unlikely to be bullish; the real variable lies in the wording of the press conference. Currently, CME shows a 69% chance of a rate hike in December. As long as Powell hints that "action in December is not ruled out," risk assets will be repriced, and BTC is very likely to drop another level.
What’s more troublesome is that the macro backdrop does not support a dovish shift: Brent crude remains above 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 5%, and inflationary pressures have not materially eased. This means Powell lacks reasons to soften his stance. The most likely scenario is "no rate hike but hawkish tone"—after the decision, BTC will first face selling pressure and drop, then rebound as expectations are digested. Don’t bet on direction before the meeting; wait for the speech to land before making moves. Reduce positions to the minimum before Wednesday—not because of bearishness, but to avoid exposure to uncertainty. Bitcoin near 80,000, and some are already calling for a reversal. My view is: don't rush, if it can't take off at this position, let's start with the good news, there are many catalysts this week.
Wednesday: SK Hynix earnings report
Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time: Federal Reserve meeting, the market's probability of no move exceeds 90%
Friday early morning: SanDisk earnings report. If the market understands the AI spending, tech stocks will rally, and the crypto market can easily benefit.
But the bad news: funding rates remain high, bulls haven't been cleaned out, so the rebound space is limited.
This is the core contradiction now.
If a real reversal is to happen, I'm waiting for this signal: another drop to the previous low near 79,200, a volume break down, then a volume recovery. Only after this step is completed does it count.
Before that, it's just bottom consolidation at a low level. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Tom, who is shouting about the bull market, is quite honest with his actions
On Monday, Tom was still loudly proclaiming "the bull market has already started," but BitMine's moves last week were somewhat intriguing: they only bought 10,452 ETH, about $24.5 million, at an average price of $2,344; meanwhile, they spent about $46 million buying back their own stock. The money spent on buying coins is not even half of what was spent on stock buybacks.
What’s even more subtle is that BitMine is only 58,000 ETH away from their goal of holding 5% of the total ETH supply. Just at the doorstep, yet the pace has slowed down. The promised final sprint has turned into protecting the stock price first?
Of course, it can also be understood as giving the E-guards some psychological preparation time—another 5 weeks, is that enough? 🤪
Slogans are slogans, but the ledger is the ledger. No matter how loudly the bull market is shouted, where the real money is placed shows the true attitude.$AVGO rose 4% today, but what I'm really watching is the phrase "residual value support" in the press release.
Four major banks pooled $63 billion to buy Broadcom's chips and lease them to Anthropic.
Broadcom sells the chips and also provides a guarantee for the client, covering up to $43 billion.
Anthropic just filed for an IPO, so everything is smooth sailing for now.
But if one day they can't pay the rent, how much will these chips be worth when returned? The shortfall would be Broadcom's responsibility.
I really have no idea how much AI chips will be worth in a few years.
I'm not chasing it; I'll wait for the next earnings report to see how this guarantee is accounted for.
Do you think this is Broadcom's smart move to lock in a major client, or have they planted a ticking time bomb for themselves?
$AVGO $NVDA
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 Seeing this construction plan, my first reaction wasn’t to cheer, but to tighten the safety helmet strap one notch. Half a year revenue of 16.3 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year increase — this building is rising fast enough, but what I want to see is the foundation. A net loss of 80.7 billion, of which 72.4 billion is non-cash valuation adjustment; the operating loss is actually only 693 million. This is like having design change disturbances mixed into foundation settlement accounting; what really needs monitoring is whether the structure itself has cracks.
But look at the long-term computing power commitment: 750 billion. What concept is this? This is the steel reinforcement ratio of the load-bearing wall, not just casually welding a steel frame shed. No matter how fast the revenue growth is, you have to first pour concrete and wait for the curing period before you can start erecting the formwork. The market is bidding 1.5 to 2 trillion in floor price for this land, with SpaceX’s 1.77 trillion record as a reference axis — but what super high-rises fear most isn’t wind load, it’s core tube displacement.
I’ve been doing plans for twenty years and have seen too many projects with stunning renderings but terrible construction drawings. The 16.3 billion revenue is like scaffolding built beautifully; the 693 million operating loss is a normal construction error; but the 750 billion computing power commitment is the embedded parts buried in the floor slab. If the bearing capacity is miscalculated, the higher you build, the worse the shear wall cracks get. The 72.4 billion non-cash valuation adjustment is basically drawing change approvals — it doesn’t affect structural safety but makes the final settlement sheet look ugly.
What really determines whether this building can be topped out is whether the cash flow formwork turnover speed can keep up with the excavation depth of the computing power foundation pit. I don’t look at price-to-sales ratio or market dream rate; I only ask one question: can your beam-column joints maintain elastic stage without yielding under the eccentric load of 80 billion loss?
The upper structure of this building has already started pouring. But the anti-floating anchor rods of the foundation slab haven’t been verified yet. #anthropicipofiled- 2k This level, watching the market has become a bit mesmerizing ☕️ That small bearish candle in the thin weekend market, do you think it's a probe or is someone really pulling out? First, my feeling this week: the price hasn't really crashed, but the rhythm has become "tight." BTC current price 80.2k, 7-day -2.27%, RSI 41 weak, stuck below the 50D EMA 80.7k and above the 200D 76.2k, ATR about 2k, which equals a daily volatility of 2.5%. The range is very clear: lower bound 79.2k, upper bound 87.2k. In this structure, the real difficulty is not predicting direction, but how to keep your position alive through Wednesday. The event density is the main character this week. Tuesday to Wednesday FOMC, Thursday ECB combined with US Q3 GDP and PCE, and Friday BoJ. Three rounds of macro catalysts in four days, any expectation swing will be amplified. ETF net outflow in two days is 773M (635M + 138M), indicating some spot-side exposure reduction; but OKX funding is only 0.0096%, OI 2.48B is neutral, leverage hasn't reached a dangerous level. These two things together are quite interesting: spot is accumulating, contracts are not crazy, it's defensive position reduction, not panic selling. From a risk management perspective, what I care more about is "how much expectation has been priced in early." Polymarket gives a 96% chance of closing above 78k today, but only 6% chance of closing above 82k—the market $SNDK SanDisk: The rebound has happened, just one step left to confirm
After SanDisk found effective support at 1200, it indeed rebounded, but tonight's market is not strong: it just touched around 1280 and then fell back to the 1230 level, with short-term resistance continuing to shift down from the Friday 1300–1320 range. Compared horizontally with SK Hynix, Intel, and Micron, the latter two have already approached last week's rebound highs, while SanDisk previously pulled back deeper and recovered more slowly, showing relatively obvious weakness. Fundamentals still suggest "value is more than this," but technicals and macro sentiment have yet to provide synchronized confirmation, forming a typical divergence. The earnings report after the market close on 10.29 will be the moment of truth for bulls and bears; uncertainty is high before the release, and heavy positions in any direction carry strong speculative elements. In terms of operation, if short-term resistance cannot be firmly held, those with heavy positions should reduce exposure first and wait for clear signals from the earnings release and resistance breakout. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 - 这个位置被反复试探，像一根绷着没断的弦 它到底是在蓄力，还是只是还没轮到它倒下？ 看盘到这一段，我最大的感受是：BTC 现在不是没人要，而是没人愿意先动手。上方 805 到 808 压着，下方 800 是防守阵地，价格夹在中间，像在等一个外部信号来打破平衡。这种僵持本身就有信息量，它说明衍生品市场里的杠杆双方都不肯先撤，资金费率大概率还在一个不痛不痒的区间，没有极端多头拥挤，也没有恐慌性空头堆积，所以任何方向的突破都可能是被消息推着走，而不是被仓位结构自然引爆。 真正值得盯的是时间窗口。28 号 FOMC，11 月 3 号中期选举，中间这两周市场的运行速度大概率会提上来。纳指盘前有修复，但我不太期待它在结果落地前走出强趋势，能摸到 29300 到 29500 已经算体面。这个节奏传导到 crypto，意味着 BTC 的震荡区间可能会被压缩，然后在上方 805 到 808 和下方 800 之间选一个方向做插针式突破，而不是温吞地磨过去。历史上这种事件密集期，衍生品端的清算往往先于现货方向出现，所以短线的波动率会比方向感更值钱。 偏多的路径在于：如果纳指在 FOMC 前守住修复，风险偏Brothers, let's talk about some "twisted" data 📊: BTC has fallen below 80,000, and logically ETFs should be redeemed, but last week BTC ETFs actually had a net inflow of $440 million, after a net outflow of $220 million the week before — a complete turnaround in one week. Even stranger, there was a single-day outflow of $169 million on Sunday. What does this mean? Institutions aren't just buying nonstop; they buy in batches after a drop, picking up chips patiently 🧐.
The structure is also very clear: BlackRock IBIT is the only big buyer, while Fidelity and Grayscale are still seeing outflows. Funds are concentrating into top ETFs, and small ETFs are getting quieter. This suggests that long-term institutions might be slowly building positions below 80,000, but that doesn't mean a short-term pump — they're buying for long-term allocation, not to boost retail investors 🚫.
So don't rush to chase just because you see institutional inflows. They can hold for a year; you might not last a week. Understanding the rhythm of funds is more important than blindly following trades 💡.#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
The Strait of Hormuz negotiation easing: the oil price drop is just a fake fall
The news about negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz dragged oil prices down, but I advise you not to rush to short — this round of decline is essentially a temporary retreat of risk premium, not a complete reversal of geopolitical logic.
First, look at the negotiation itself: the five-day mutual concession plan led by Qatar seems like both sides are stepping back, but the core disagreements were not touched at all. Iran insists on "lifting the blockade first before discussing opening," the US refuses to loosen the execution order, and Iran even directly put the nuclear issue on the table as a bargaining chip, clearly negotiating while demanding, far from the stage of actual navigation resumption. What the market is trading now is just the sentiment repair of "the situation not worsening further," not solid proof of the Strait fully reopening.
More importantly, the geopolitical risk trump card has not been withdrawn. The Houthi forces immediately attacked Saudi oil pipelines, indicating that the threat to Middle East energy facilities always exists. As long as negotiations fluctuate or the shipping lane has issues again, oil prices can recover their losses at any time.
In the short term, Brent falling back to $114 and WTI dropping below $102 indeed released some of the previously squeezed bubble, but the underlying logic of tight supply balance remains unchanged. Don't bet on a one-sided decline next; the real turning point requires two signals: one is the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait, and the other is the US substantially loosening restrictions on Iranian energy exports. Before that, every round of oil price decline is just a correction within a high-level oscillation, not a trend reversal.
$CL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
October FOMC: A pause in rate hikes is expected, but the real impact lies in the wording
This week's October FOMC rate decision is imminent, and maintaining the current rate is already the market consensus, with no surprises. What can truly stir the market and determine BTC's direction is the Fed's guidance on the rate path for December.
This meeting does not include a dot plot or new economic forecasts; all focus is on the statement and Powell's press conference. The market has already priced in the start of a rate cut cycle, with some funds even speculating on a cut as early as December. However, given the resilience of inflation and stronger-than-expected employment fundamentals, the Fed is unlikely to ease easily and may instead signal a hawkish stance to temper overly optimistic rate cut expectations.
For the crypto market, the positive effect of pausing rate hikes has long been priced in. BTC is now waiting for the Fed's tone: if Powell signals dovishness and implies rate cuts are near, market sentiment will continue to heat up, and bulls may push prices higher; if he reiterates that "high rates will persist longer" and emphasizes inflation risks, disappointed funds will likely sell off, leading to a typical profit-taking scenario.
Additionally, the Q3 GDP and September PCE data released after the meeting are the key variables influencing year-end decisions. Simply put, this meeting is more of a transition, and no surprises would be the best outcome; but if Powell's tone is even slightly hawkish, the current optimistic rally could face a concentrated correction at any time. $BTC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood released its Q3 earnings after the market close tonight. Revenue growth is basically expected to continue, but the quality of that growth is questionable.
Q2 revenue increased 32% year-over-year, with a large portion of the growth coming from a rebound in crypto trading. This quarter, the platform aggressively launched new coins to capture the retail market, but the overall crypto market was flat in Q3, retail trading enthusiasm cooled, and the actual performance of crypto commission income is the key focus of the earnings report.
Additionally, Q2 saw a record high in net client deposits, essentially driven by the dual momentum of US stocks and crypto markets. Robinhood's user base is mainly retail investors; when the market is hot, trading is active, but when the market cools, revenue immediately comes under pressure. Its growth model is highly dependent on market conditions.
In simple terms, Robinhood is a barometer of retail investor sentiment. Its cooling crypto data means that off-exchange retail hot money is retreating. $INIT Long Position Battlefield: Small coins surge without logic, it's a matter of who blinks first.
This coin doesn't need to pretend to have fundamentals. The circulating supply is just over 20%, contract positions are stacked even more aggressively than spot, and the order book is as thin as paper. There was an incident on-chain recently; the price bounced from 0.115 back to 0.15. It's already a jittery bird; even a small amount of capital can push the candlestick sky-high.
I opened this 10x long position at 0.15098, now at 0.19391, with an unrealized profit of 284.34%. To be clear, it's not that I'm particularly bullish, but the shorts couldn't hold on first—altcoins fear this kind of gap-up surge the most. Once the short stop-losses are triggered, liquidation orders chase to buy back, and the price keeps spiking crazily.
But this money is hot. Altcoin rallies are jumpy, while declines are continuous: when pumping, even without buy orders it flies; when dumping, if no one catches it, it crashes off a cliff. 10x leverage looks stable, but if a 5% wick hits, a big chunk of unrealized profit can be wiped out.
Is it stable? No. Above 0.19 is all profit-taking. The FOMC results come out today; if BTC jitters even a bit, INIT could retrace 15 points.
So no greed. Move the stop to just above the entry price, exit half if it falls below 0.18, and hold the rest to see 0.20. This trade profits from sentiment, not value; once sentiment fades, you have to run.
The truth about altcoin contracts: you're not gambling against the market, you're betting against the people drawing the candlesticks. Win this round, then quit. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Ethereum stuck at 2300: False breakout recovery, but reversal is still early
In the early hours, the 2300 level staged a "false breakout recovery"—ETH tested the bottom twice and was pulled back, the previous low at 2282 was not broken, bulls are fiercely defending the lifeline. However, weak recovery does not equal reversal.
The moving average system is suppressing across the board: the 100-day EMA (2363) looms overhead, the 200-day EMA (2318) is closely entangled, the MACD green bars below the zero line have narrowed but no golden cross has appeared yet, RSI 33–36 is dulled at the oversold edge. The technical signals are very clear—there is an instinct to rebound, but no strength for a reversal. 2360 is just a threshold; all rebounds are low-volume empty plays.
On-chain hidden risks cannot be ignored either. The whale liquidation line for 93,000 ETH long positions is pressed in the 2182–2256 range, and below that, 676 million in leveraged long positions hang overhead. Once the daily close breaks below 2300–2282, programmed selling pressure will target 2220→2180, triggering a sweep order scenario immediately.
The capital side is also uncooperative. In October, ETH ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 1 billion, Coinbase premium turned negative, and US-side willingness to take over is weak. Without incremental funds, the rebound wall at 2360–2400 is hard to surpass, let alone the true strong threshold at 2470—that requires volume support after the FOMC.
Before the early hours of October 29 FOMC, don’t believe in an independent reversal. Bitcoin won’t return to 81.2K, ETH can’t take off. 2300 is the lifeline #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Just after 4 a.m., as the US stock market closed and settled, BTC was still hovering around 80400, but the market was hiding a deadly trap.
Just finished reviewing the latest derivatives data: On October 30, there will be a massive monthly options settlement exceeding $11 billion, with the biggest pain point concentrated near 78500. Retail investors are unusually clustered in bullish options, causing market makers' hedging pressure to surge. Funds are hedging in advance, and the price has already fallen back to around 80400.
$BTC: The 81000 rally was resisted, with the options pain point pulling downward
Previously referenced around 84500. With the $10 billion settlement imminent, buying momentum has clearly weakened. 81000 cannot hold, pulled down by the largest pain point at 78500, short-term profit-taking may continue. Watch 80000 below.
$ETH: Lost the 2400 level, large settlements intensify pressure
Previously referenced at 2500. Ethereum is simultaneously facing tens of billions in options settlements, and the rebound has never been confirmed by major funds. Without incremental capital support, whether 2300 can hold is more important than how high it can rally.
$SOL: The 100 level is in danger, inflows just appeared then immediately turned negative
Previously referenced near 108. Settlement week funds are hedging, slight inflows have again turned negative. Resistance near 105 remains, altcoins lack follow-through, rapid rises are prone to pullbacks.
Summary: The $10 billion settlement hides deadly traps, market makers are defending and suppressing prices, BTC leads the retreat, ETH and SOL show even less strength. Both price and capital are moving downward.
With settlement and interest rate decisions approaching simultaneously, the true direction may not have emerged yet.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Still awake watching the market 😪, the more I look, the more I feel this market isn't controlled by retail investors. BTC holdings have piled up to 55.052 billion, with the largest holder accounting for 20.49%, the second largest 16.43%, together making 36.92%. OKX only holds 5.93%. Positions are concentrated in the hands of a few. The ratio of holdings to turnover further illustrates the issue: BTC is 1.3761, SOL is 1.2459, ETH only 0.958. BTC's positions are stable, ETH's positions turn over fastest. Everyone is on a different rhythm. Looking at one day, BTC holdings increased by 1.96%, ETH by 1.42%, SOL by 2.35%, ZEC by 11.57%, still leading. But within one hour, BTC holdings barely moved, ETH shrank by 0.29%, SOL only increased by 0.11%, ZEC actually shrank by 0.44%. The leader loosens first, the heavy holders stay put. Total network holdings rose to 142.601 billion, up 1.49%, turnover shrank to 148.35 billion, down 16.14%. The FOMC is still in session, the decision will come early Thursday morning. I won't guess the outcome. BTC holds above 80,000, ETH hovers above 2,300, SOL clings to the 100 mark. Positions have split first. Let it grind, I neither chase nor flee. I'll wait for those holding large positions to make the first move, then I'll follow. When it grinds to the end and someone loosens first, I just hope it's not me 😢.$BTC has returned to $80,022, $ETH is reported at $2,322, while $SOL is stuck at $100.27—although all are rebounding, their situations are completely different. The real signal lies in the divergence: this is not a broad-based recovery, but a reordering of capital based on "survival priority." First, look at Bitcoin. The $80,000 level is being tugged back and forth, but institutions have not made large-scale withdrawals; solid holding costs are stacked in the $79,000–$80,000 range, and capital is willing to trade repeatedly at this level. This means $BTC has a significantly higher tolerance— even if it gets pierced by a spike, it can recover quickly. It is the only asset in the market with a "psychological anchor" attribute; as long as the macro environment is somewhat positive, it stabilizes first, giving other coins room to breathe. Ethereum’s problem is more structural. The $2,350 trendline has been lost, funding rates have quickly fallen, long leverage has clearly cooled, ETFs continue to see net outflows, and large holders are reducing positions. The pressure is not emotional but related to chip distribution. $2,300 has become a lifeline; if it cannot hold, leveraged positions will face chain liquidations. $ETH’s rebound requires $BTC to first provide a stable environment, as it lacks independent strength fuel. The weakest is $SOL. Whales continue to deposit to exchanges, effectively placing potential selling pressure on the order book; a head and shoulders pattern is forming, with $100 as the neckline—if it breaks down effectively, the next reference point is $80. Its volatility risk is far higher than the other two. Once the macro environment tightens, $上一轮那三张多单先把结果摆出来：XRP从1.3246走到1.3250（+0.03%），TRX从0.32989走到0.33047（+0.18%），HYPE从81.6670退到81.3090（-0.44%），三个止损一个都没碰到，方向还在，我不改。 这一轮冒出来的东西比价格有意思：链上永续市场里那批大户把仓位翻到了对面——空单14.5亿美元对着多单12.2亿，净空2.3亿，而这批人上一轮还在底部买多。同一时间，小散往交易所送的币创了六个月新高，30天累计从55亿美元涨到107.5亿；鲸鱼送币的量反而从八月底的59亿掉到38亿。想抛的人把币搬到了门口，握着大仓的一个币都不挪。这种场面我看了很多年，它通常出现在变盘之前，不是行情结束之后。 再算一笔很多人算错的账：上市产品只握住了可流通比特币的8.5%，个人79.6%、企业9.4%、政府2.5%；同一个口径下，美股有37.4%在基金手里。所以"赎回就砸盘"这套说法被放大了——它一天进出一亿美元，放在1.6万亿美元的盘子里连个水花都不算。真正压着价格的是81,000到82,500之间那批等解套的筹码，还有一直没清干净的杠杆。 大选一周后投票，议息🌌 Early Wednesday morning, three on-chain protocols' real ledgers before the decision
$HYPE 77.7, protocol fee dividends are waiting for quarterly settlement 📊
Hyperliquid distributes trading fees proportionally to token holders; if you hold HYPE, you receive a share of the on-chain fees, as written in the protocol. This week's on-chain trading data looks good, but the price doesn't rise, indicating the market is waiting for the quarterly dividends to be realized rather than speculating. At the 77.7 level, holders are waiting for the money to arrive, while those chasing highs are waiting for capital to flow back. Avoid leverage on such volatile coins before the FOMC early Thursday morning.
$ENA 0.217, high interest rates actually benefit yield-bearing coins 🌾
USDe is backed by a basket of short-term US Treasuries; when you deposit, you earn the Treasury yield. The market bets on no change this time, but if the Fed Chair's press conference is hawkish, given the rate hike in September, the market will reprice the duration of high rates, making yield-bearing stablecoins more attractive. This logic is opposite to rate cut expectations, so don't chase simply.
$BEAT 0.0679, audio copyright is still in early stages 🎧
Audiora puts audio work copyrights on-chain, allowing creators to share revenue from on-chain plays. With over three million USD in transactions, the market cap is small; real growth requires seeing actual play counts and protocol income increase to move beyond early stages. Currently, it drifts with the broader market.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A total value of up to $590 million in cryptocurrency perpetual contract full-position short orders, covering the three major mainstream coins BTC, ETH, and SOL, all using 5x leverage, representing a typical whale-level trend short position layout with very distinct overall operational logic and risk characteristics.
The $ETH short position currently has an unrealized profit of $3.612 million, while also accumulating $3.2802 million in funding fee income, making it the only position currently achieving both unrealized profit and positive funding fee income, indicating that ETH's current market price is significantly below the opening price of $2375.32, and the short direction judgment has perfectly caught the downward market rhythm.
The $BTC short position has an unrealized loss of $4.8169 million, and the $SOL short position has an unrealized loss of $2.3623 million; both coins currently have market prices above their opening prices and are temporarily in a stuck position. However, together they still receive positive funding fees of $2.7376 million + $497,500, continuously earning holding income during the position.
Overall, although the two coins are temporarily at unrealized losses, the cumulative positive funding fees exceed $6.5 million, largely offsetting the unrealized losses, so the actual net loss is far less than the sum of the book unrealized losses.
The liquidation thresholds for this short position are very special: BTC liquidation price is as high as $131,682.7, ETH liquidation price is as high as $4,287.71, and SOL liquidation price is as high as $593.95, all far above the current mainstream market price ranges.
This means that this 5x leveraged full-position short position almost has no liquidation risk under normal market conditions; only if BTC, ETH, and SOL simultaneously experience extreme doubling-level surges will forced liquidation be triggered. Essentially, the whale is betting on the overall crypto market entering a downward cycle using very low leverage and a very high safety buffer.
This position is not a short-term speculative trade but a typical macro hedging short: the whale puts up over $76 million in margin to leverage nearly $600 million in short exposure, holding short positions to bet on bearish markets while also earning high positive funding fees paid by bulls during bull markets. It's like betting on a market decline while lying down to earn holding interest, a very sophisticated large-capital risk control trading strategy.
#However, the hidden risk of such full-position short positions is also obvious: if the market experiences extreme positive news driving a collective surge in coins, even with very high liquidation prices set, there is still a risk of significant margin shrinkage. The tolerance for large capital betting on a one-sided trend is actually far less generous than it appears on paper.
#The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week $HYPE
123,000 HYPE, 10.02 million USD, a wallet that had been silent for 27 days, was directly swept up from Wintermute last night.
At the same time, the Bitwise BHYP ETF wallet received 47,000 tokens, 3.71 million USD, after unstaking. The market maker's desk is selling, while the whales and ETF are buying, clashing head-on.
HYPE is now at 81.4 USD, up 3.7% in 24 hours. By the way, Wintermute itself holds an 81% short position on Hyperliquid, mainly shorting ETH, SOL, XRP. This company has a habit of betting both ways, so don't get scared just because the market maker is selling.
My judgment: Market maker selling itself is not a bearish signal, but a whale returning to buy heavily after a whole month of silence is more honest than any candlestick. HYPE's tokens are moving from retail pockets into large cold wallets; the trend is intact.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 1300 lost, the rules have to change accordingly — this is the only thing to execute for this position now.
For this $ZEC position, 50x long, opened at 1202.72, current price about 1297.28, floating profit 393.15%.
Three numbers to watch: buffer 7.29%, support 1250, resistance 1300.
Buffer 7.29% — if it drops 7.29%, this 393% profit goes to zero. At 50x leverage, this small margin can't withstand a single pullback.
1300 has turned from support back to resistance, just 0.21% overhead. This level changed roles three times tonight: first resistance, then support at early morning, now resistance again. Such repeated role changes make the level unstable; if it can't hold above, the upward move is fake.
Set three fixed rules:
1. Cut position if it breaks below 1250. Don't wait for the cost line.
2. Only consider 1350 if it stands back above 1300. Note it just lost 1300; a pullback to confirm is standard, don't rush to assume it holds.
3. Set a time limit. 50x charges funding fees on nominal position size, holding overnight eats up nearly half the profit.
Add one more: absolutely no adding to the position. Floating profit dropped from 433% to 393%, which easily triggers the thought of "averaging down" — averaging down never solves problems, it only magnifies them. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 With just one sentence from Musk, New Cloud companies tremble first 😅
Last night, Musk casually said, "These companies will face major consolidation and closures," directly pressing a string of new cloud companies down: CoreWeave fell 4%, Nebius fell 4.7%, IREN followed the decline 📉
Interestingly—the person saying this is himself pouring money crazily into building computing power. So this is not bearish on AI, but rather a warning for the entire chain 🧨
The truly fragile link is never the giant holding hundreds of billions in cash. It's the middlemen who borrow money to buy GPUs and then sublease them. Wherever leverage is added, that layer cracks first 💥
If this round really goes wrong, it will most likely start with these names, not Nvidia. Keep an eye on them. 👀
In short: those selling shovels sit steadily by the fishing pond, those borrowing shovels to speculate on rent get buried first. 🪦#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落