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$ZEC $ZEC The ZEC community is actually proposing to shut down the development fund of over 300 million dollars early.
They want to directly split the granary and leave, so no one will maintain the code afterward.
This coin's consensus has always relied entirely on technological iteration, and the core team is clearly planning to withdraw now.
There are still funds stubbornly supporting the market.
The rice bowl is about to be smashed; buying at this position is purely paying for the exit fee.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$IMX
Gaming adoption in crypto is a different challenge from attracting DeFi traders. Players generally care about gameplay, ownership, transaction costs, and convenience rather than token narratives. Immutable focuses on blockchain infrastructure for gaming, positioning itself in a sector with considerable potential but demanding competition. Sustainable game launches and returning players matter more than temporary ecosystem excitement.$TRUMP 一根12%的绿柱，是反转的烟花还是给离场的人点的灯？ 这种脉冲，你第一反应是追还是先看谁在对面卖？ 这两天我盯 $TRUMP 的节奏，感觉更像"事件重定价"而不是趋势启动：沉寂几个月后一小时内拉出两位数涨幅，但别忘了它距高点已经回撤超过97%。价格在修复的是情绪，不是估值。RSI 已经贴到97附近，这种读数通常说明短线买盘被一次性抽干，后续需要新增资金接力，而不是靠同一批人反复点火。 衍生品视角更关键。快速拉升往往伴随持仓量陡增和资金费率转正甚至偏热，意味着多头在付钱维持仓位。一旦现货买盘跟不上，价格横住或小幅回踩，高杠杆多头就会变成最脆弱的拥挤交易，触发被动减仓，形成"拉高—挤压—回吐"的短周期结构。山寨整体的风险偏好也会被这种脉冲带一下，但传导很短，BTC、ETH 的稳定性才是决定这波能不能扩散的底座。 偏多路径也存在：如果拉升后持仓量温和回落、费率回归中性、价格守住涨幅中段不破，说明是换手而非纯投机，叙事可能重新获得一点关注度。但潜在风险是，这波涨幅里有多少已经被提前计价？一根绿柱改变不了长期稀释和注意力衰减的事实，追高的人很容易成为别人的出场对手盘。 我自己的节奏Tomorrow is the U.S. midterm election, so I won't be adding positions this week.
According to the prediction market prices now, the Democrats have about a 94% to 95% chance of taking the House and around 72% for the Senate. If they really take both chambers, the crypto legislation will likely slow down.
My reasoning:
In September, the Senate voted on advancing the CLARITY Act, but it failed 49 to 50, with all the attending Democratic senators voting against it. If legislation continues to stall, the recently hyped compliance narrative will cool off.
Of course, the market has already priced in some of this. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 37, so sentiment is already somewhat fearful; if the results come out as expected, the drop might not be as severe as imagined.
For ordinary people, don't bet on the election results to open leverage this week. Wait until the results are out and the direction is clear before making moves; it's not too late.
What do you think will happen to BTC when the election results come out—will it rise first or fall first?
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
(Personal opinion, not investment advice)
#BTC #美国中期选举I was wondering why $INTC dropped so much last Friday, turns out the big players were collectively running away.
Goldman Sachs data shows hedge funds have been net selling global AI stocks for 5 consecutive trading days,
returning all the AI positions bought since early 2025, which is a collective deleveraging, not much related to one or two earnings reports.
Last Friday, $INTC fell nearly 29% in a single day,
marking the worst day since 1974.
During such deleveraging, both good and bad stocks are sold together, who can hold on?
I won’t add to my $INTC for now, I’ll wait until they finish selling.😭$BTC continues to face pressure, with a clear divergence between capital flow and market trends. Recently, the price has repeatedly contested the $80,000 level, dipping multiple times near 79k or even lower, overall still in a recovery phase with about a 35% retracement from the October 2025 peak.
The Federal Reserve's maintained tight stance, high oil prices, capital siphoning effect in the AI sector, and risk-averse sentiment ahead of the midterm elections have led to insufficient price elasticity. However, capital flow and price show divergence.
Spot ETFs are not continuously experiencing net outflows; some trading days still record net inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars, but the scale and continuity are insufficient, mostly concentrated in leading products like IBIT, with limited contribution from others. On-chain and position data show that earlier basis arbitrage and macro fast money (some hedge funds and bank trading desks) have significantly reduced positions, CME asset management net longs and leveraged fund shorts have both been cut by more than half from their peaks, and open interest has noticeably contracted.
Meanwhile, wealth management platforms, sovereign funds, and long-term allocation players are absorbing chips, with large holders continuously increasing net positions. This "weak price, core capital intact" structure indicates that current selling pressure mainly comes from short-term and sentiment-driven sources rather than institutional systemic withdrawal. ETF capital flow tends to follow price rather than lead it, confirming the "buy high, sell low" characteristic. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 In the futures market, when a major player runs into trouble, risk control usually traces down through the capital and collateral relationships, rather than just looking at how much the market has dropped. I see this message follows the same logic: investigating whether risks might spill over.
The Bank of Korea is currently investigating 31 financial institutions to understand how the closure of large cryptocurrency exchanges, prolonged market downturns, or losses suffered by other companies might impact their operations. The crypto market differs from traditional futures in that exchanges often also involve asset custody, so closures cannot be understood solely based on market fluctuations.
My judgment is that this issue is more important for financial institutions' risk management than for short-term sentiment: closures test the availability of funds, and prolonged downturns test the resilience for sustained operations; these two pressures should not be conflated. As for whether business will be tightened, I think that depends on the investigation results; we cannot draw conclusions on behalf of the central bank. For friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets, would you consider exchange closures or prolonged downturns as the more severe stress scenario?To start with the conclusion, Yun Jie is quite bullish. I am optimistic about SNDK, not just because of the AI concept, but because its fundamentals are undergoing substantial changes. First, the data center business is becoming a new growth engine, with related revenue reaching $4.8 billion this quarter, a 61% quarter-over-quarter increase, and shipment share rising from about 12% previously to 38%. As AI inference scales up and data storage demand continues to grow, SanDisk, as a pure NAND and SSD player, is expected to benefit continuously. Second, the company has signed long-term supply agreements with 8 customers, locking in part of the shipments for the coming years in advance. The contracts also include deposits and other financial guarantees, significantly improving the visibility of future revenue. Meanwhile, NAND prices are still expected to rise, enterprise-level SSD demand is especially strong, and industry capacity is unlikely to be quickly released in the short term. Additionally, SanDisk is sharing factory construction costs with Kioxia, keeping capital expenditure pressure relatively manageable; the BiCS series continues to upgrade, and HBF high-bandwidth flash memory is also being positioned for the AI inference market. The company has ample cash reserves, low debt pressure, and continues to repurchase shares, further enhancing its long-term competitiveness. If HBF is successfully commercialized in the future, it could open new growth opportunities, but there are still technical and market validation risks at present. Looking at the K-line, the stock price previously fell from $1421 to a low of $1117, then stabilized around $1150, and has now rebounded to $1194. A short-term recovery signal has appeared, with $1200–$1220 as a key resistance zone. If it breaks through with volume, it is likely to continue challenging higher levels If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the same address buys spot and opens leveraged long positions simultaneously, it should be added to a watchlist but not directly trigger a directional judgment. Newcomers learning quant should first impose a restriction on themselves to avoid mistaking "big players taking action" for "the answer revealed" 🤖
According to PANews citing Lookonchain monitoring, whale t1JJnA bought 3,052 ZEC spot, worth $3.8 million; at the same time, established a corresponding 8,000 ZEC, $10.16 million 2x leveraged long position.
My judgment is that this has more observational value for $ZEC than follow-up value. Spot buying indeed brings buying pressure and carries more information than a mere statement of intent; but since spot and leveraged positions come from the same address, they cannot be treated as two independent bullish evidences, otherwise the strategy risks double counting.
The loophole in the rule is also obvious: leveraged positions are more constrained by price volatility, and if the market moves against the position, the pressure to reduce holdings may amplify volatility—this is my speculation. The data also does not fully disclose the entire position and hedging situation, so actions from a single address are insufficient to conclude a sector-wide strengthening.
Therefore, I prefer to observe whether there is continued accumulation or any reverse operations afterward, rather than scoring signals based on amount size. If you were to write this condition, would you require "continuous accumulation" or "multiple independent addresses acting simultaneously" to upgrade it into an effective signal? #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Can a true public chain also go to zero? CORE fell from 6.47 to 0.018, what is hidden behind the 99.7% crash?
As of November 2, CORE was priced at about $0.014, down more than 99% from its all-time high of about $6.14, with a market cap of only about $13.9 million, having fallen into the small-cap high-risk zone.
The crash of CORE is not simply due to a bear market drag. In March 2026, the ecological lending protocol Colend triggered a massive liquidation cascade, combined with a hard fork that temporarily unlinked some tokens from mining power, causing concentrated selling pressure and a single-day drop of over 50%. Since then, issues such as low ecological TVL, lack of hit applications, continuous token unlocking, and weak liquidity have continued to suppress rebounds.
Currently, CORE is still in a bearish trend and under technical pressure. If the BTCFi narrative fails to materialize, and buybacks and ecological implementation fall short of expectations, the price still faces downside risk. This serves as a reminder to all investors: no matter how attractive the public chain narrative is, it cannot withstand liquidity exhaustion and ecological hemorrhage.
Do you think CORE still has a chance to turn around? Share your judgment in the comments.$BTC is still under pressure, but the signals from capital and the market are no longer quite the same. The price keeps hovering around the 80,000 mark, and every rally is quickly pushed back down, looking weak with short-term bulls lacking confidence. The macro environment is indeed unfavorable: interest rate hike expectations persist, oil prices are high, AI stocks have absorbed a lot of risk appetite capital, and with the uncertainty before the elections, capital prefers to wait and see.
The divergence lies in the fact that not all money is running away. Some days, ETFs still see net inflows, though the scale is small and the continuity poor, and the price doesn't cooperate; but the real fast money (those doing basis trading and macro speculation) has basically withdrawn, with positions significantly reduced. What remains more are relatively stable allocation funds slowly stepping in. On-chain data also shows large holders increasing positions rather than selling off together. This indicates that the current pressure is more about short-term sentiment and leverage clearing, rather than a collective institutional sell-off.
In practice, this kind of divergence phase is most prone to whipsaws on both sides. Chasing longs can easily get shaken out, while chasing shorts might be suddenly hit by inflows pushing prices back up. It is recommended to control position sizes more tightly and focus on volume and ETF flow changes during key support tests, rather than rushing to bet on direction. Before macro events unfold, first observe whether capital is truly willing to continue buying at low levels, rather than just watching price movements. Patiently waiting for signals of divergence convergence is more reliable than guessing now. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 Hmm, currently 50 companies have opposed ICE-OKX's tokenized stock plan, whereas a week ago, the number reported by Ajian was still 22. Keep in mind the original proposal only covered 62 companies in total. You see, the biggest resistance to tokenized stocks isn't the SEC that we always criticize, but rather the listed companies themselves. The larger the company, the more concerned they are that tokenized shares might bypass transfer agents, affect vote counting, and weaken the company's control over the shareholder register.
They're all a bunch of clever monkeys. The RWA path is still too difficult. At this stage, the expansion speed of tokenized stocks is no longer determined by "how many exchanges are doing it," but by how many companies are willing to be tokenized The license deadline has arrived. Among 150 to 200 Brazilian crypto companies, only about 40 have submitted applications.
The application deadline set by the Central Bank of Brazil for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) was October 30. Those who have submitted can continue operating during the review period, while those who have not must orderly liquidate and exit within one month after the deadline. Starting November 6, banks will block transactions related to unlicensed crypto companies, directly cutting off their fiat currency channels, and the central bank's review period can last up to 2 years.
This is generally negative for local unlicensed platforms in Brazil. Fiat on/off ramps will concentrate among a few compliant players, benefiting leading exchanges, while small and medium platforms face clearance; the direct impact on BTC and other major coins is limited because local trading is mostly done through international platforms and OTC channels, but attention should be paid to slower and stricter local fiat on/off ramps.
Two scenarios to watch: first, which platforms can obtain licenses; second, after banks start blocking on November 6, whether OTC and P2P premiums will rise.
Are you more concerned about the license list or premium changes?
Source: PANews$BTC The Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes on September 16, and it has been 47 days since then. Surprisingly, BTC has been the best performer.
OKX Closing prices on the rate hike day → today at noon:
BTC +3.1%
S&P 500 +0.4%
Nasdaq 100 -1.6%
ETH -4.7%
Gold -8.9%
Silver -20.9%
The saying "Rate hikes = the end of crypto" did not come true this time. But don’t celebrate too early: BTC surged to 86,617 intraday before giving it all back. The closing price on the rate hike day was 76,201, almost the same as the October low of 76,265.
Now some officials are calling for "at least two more hikes," and CME FedWatch shows about a 70% chance of a rate hike in December. Most of the negative impact is already priced in. The real risk is an upside surprise: if this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are strong, pushing the probability to 90%, the 76,200 level will be the true test.
The rate hike itself is not scary; what’s scary is hiking more than expected.
Not investment advice | Data sources: OKX, Federal Reserve, CME FedWatch #NonfarmIncoming, will December rate hike plans change? USDC only decreased by $55.95 million in one week, such a relatively small change makes it impossible for me to take "collective capital withdrawal" as a ready-made conclusion. In this set of data from DefiLlama, the total amount of stablecoins across the network declined, with USDT's contraction being more obvious, but $USDC did not show a change of the same scale.
I run a small company, and when I see this kind of report, I would first adjust the growth budget rather than immediately assume that all old customers have left. My judgment is: this news is somewhat negative for narratives relying on new capital to realize expectations, but the impact on the entire market cannot be generalized. The inconsistent changes among different stablecoins at least indicate that you cannot explain all capital behavior with a single total.
Doing business is about input and output; expansion depends on cash flow, not on imagined orders. If new capital continues to lag, then optimistic expectations supported by subsequent follow-up are even harder to realize, which is my speculation. But circulation volume is not a transaction ledger; whether existing funds are willing to trade and how frequently they trade is not revealed by this information.
I would treat this kind of data as a reminder to check risk reserves rather than immediately drawing conclusions. Having money on the books and being able to confidently expand investment are two different things; next, I want to see whether the contraction will shift from localized differences to a widespread phenomenon.Using prediction markets to gauge sentiment on Bitcoin, I always want to ask first: can this market depth handle the money? If the order book is thin, then a slight move by big players can change the odds, making it look like everyone suddenly changed their mind, but in reality, it might just be that few are willing to take the other side. When trading coins normally, if the depth is poor, you can switch to another trading pair, but for the same prediction event, there might not be alternatives elsewhere. The odds on the screen are quite clear, but when you really want to exit, is there still someone on the other side?Google announced yesterday that satellites in orbit ran Gemma4 using TPU and even sent back a space haiku to the ground. Four TPUs, with a maximum power output of 1 kilowatt, can only fully power one at a time and run for just 20 minutes. Why send computing power to space? Is it still about electricity? The solar panels in orbit generate about 8 times the power compared to those on the ground. Miners on the ground are competing with AI for electricity, while data centers are already being deployed in space. It's truly mining in the sky #谷歌财报后股价大跌，AI投资回报受关注 $GOOGL To pour some cold water first, I don't directly take a sharp increase in open interest as bullish news. The $ZEC contract open interest rose from about $571 million to $662 million in 4 hours, an increase of 15.95%; during the same period, the price rose from $1241 to $1278. Even though both price and open interest increased, it cannot be directly concluded that bulls are controlling the market.
I am cautious for two reasons: open interest only indicates an increase in open contracts and cannot alone determine which side is stronger; the funding rate is 0.0047% per hour, which annualizes to about 42% at the current rate, meaning long positions have a cost. My speculation is that if buying pressure doesn't keep up, the added leverage might actually amplify the pullback rather than support the price.
Of course, those bullish might disagree. If subsequent trading volume continues to expand, the price stabilizes, and the funding rate cools down, I will reduce my bearish bias. Are you bullish or bearish on this increase in open interest? Share your reasons, especially how you view the relationship between open interest expansion and funding costs.Patricio Worthalter 10 小时前在链上抛售 2000 $ETH 换为 453 万枚 USDC，均价 $2269，随后他将 USDC 中转至 0x95A…C2C7f，即此前标记过的 ICO 远古巨鲸I always thought tokenized stocks were a benefit for retail investors, but it turns out the companies themselves were the first to block it.
By November 1st, 50 US-listed companies publicly opposed it, including Nvidia, Nike, and Costco. OKX teamed up with the NYSE parent company ICE to try it, covering over 60 companies, but before all votes were cast, the opposition had already piled up.
Later I realized: the companies don’t get a penny. Third parties package the stocks into tokens to sell, the platform earns fees, but the companies get no financing.
Being able to trade anytime doesn’t mean there’s always a buyer. Market makers are off duty when the market is closed, and when spreads widen, it can’t compare to the depth of something like $BTC.BITCOIN AND THE US MIDTERMS : WHAT HAPPENED LAST 3 TIMES
Midterms are Nov 3, Here is how $BTC behaved around 2014, 2018 and 2022 :
Q4 of the midterm year :
2014: ~-17%
2018: ~-42%
2022: ~-15%
The 12 months after the election :
2014: ~+24%
2018: ~+45%
2022: ~+92%
In each cycle, the major low came within 71 days of the vote
Three data points are not a pattern, and each cycle had its own driver (bear markets, FTX in 2022)
But traders will be watching最近的币圈有个怪现象：项目越来越会讲故事，真正能拿出可验证进展的，反倒不太容易被讨论。今晚聊三个之前没写过的币。 ALGO在押注“量子时代的安全”。10月27日，Algorand官方重提抗量子密码路线：Falcon-1024账户已在今年8月进入主网，老账户还得自行迁移。这是实打实的技术进展，但距离整个网络全面抗量子仍有路要走。技术领先，不代表ALGO马上涨。 APT让我关注的是供给。官方11月1日仪表盘显示，近30天销毁约17万枚APT，同期月度质押发行约150万枚。销毁确实存在，可距离净通缩还差很远。交易活跃度能否推高燃烧量，比口号更重要。 ENA则在摸索机构资金。10月29日，Ethena治理论坛公布机构借贷框架，列出对手方资质、抵押物和每日核验要求；这说明扩张开始更重视风控。但制度再漂亮，也不能消除抵押品暴跌与违约风险。 我喜欢这种能逐项核对的进展：ALGO看使用率，APT看净发行，ENA看风险敞口。你认为哪条路线更有可能熬出真实价值？ #ALGO #APT #ENA 非投资建议。A matter that seems good for everyone has been jointly suppressed by 50 companies.
As of November 1, 50 US-listed companies publicly opposed the tokenization of their own stocks, including Nvidia, Nike, Costco, and Reddit. OKX's cooperation with ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, aims to cover more than 60 US companies. Both supply and demand exist, but the business cannot move forward.
The apparent logic is that all three parties win, but the third party's gains are illusory: when stocks are put on-chain, the listed companies do not receive a penny. Platforms package stocks into tokens and sell them, with fees going to the platform; financing does not benefit the company, and the company cannot control issuance or circulation. It's equivalent to others creating a market with your stocks that you cannot enter.
The conflict is not just about money. Token prices may deviate from traditional markets during market closures; the same company's stocks are scattered in multiple places, fragmenting liquidity; whether token holders count as shareholders and can vote remains undecided.
An easily overlooked judgment is: being able to trade 24 hours and being able to execute trades anytime are two different things. During market closures, market makers decrease and spreads widen; the depth like $BTC has been built over more than a decade.
But the demand is real. Binance disclosed on October 15 that the bStocks ecosystem of $BNB reached over $1 billion in scale within four months, with about 42% of trading occurring outside normal US stock market hours as of August 2026. The SEC only provides an innovation exemption, not a free pass.Four midterm elections, four major crashes, tonight it's the fifth time!
Americans vote tomorrow, but crypto veterans are watching not the election results tonight, but the calendar.
After the past four midterm elections, Bitcoin's drops were 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, each time less severe but never avoided; in the fourth quarter of election years, Bitcoin closed down three out of four times with declines of -16.7%, -42.2%, and -14.8%; the fastest bottom appeared 13 days after voting, the slowest took 71 days.
However, CoinDesk's data analysis gave a reversal: tech stocks don't have this problem, their bottoming times align perfectly with the halving cycle. So the real curse is most likely the cycle, with elections just being the punctual scapegoat every year.
This time the variable is institutions exiting first: on October 30, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in one day, polls show Democrats leading 47% to 36%, and the bill's prospects remain uncertain.
The day before the election, the biggest gainer was TRUMP, rising 10% intraday—voters haven't cast ballots yet, but gamblers already have. The Fear & Greed Index is 37, the market has bled a bit but positions are holding at the door.
BTC is now at $78,300, just climbed back from $76,300. I only watch one line: $73,000, the average cost of short-term holders. Hold above it, and this year's script rewrites; break below, don't rush to sell, survive the election week first.
$BTC #中期选举btc
In terms of capital flow, institutional funds have shown a significant withdrawal. The US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $441 million over four consecutive trading days from October 26 to 29, but on October 30, it suddenly turned into a net outflow of about $643 million, with a significant expansion in single-day outflow scale. Among them, BlackRock IBIT outflowed about $234 million, Fidelity FBTC outflowed about $201 million, and ARKB outflowed about $130 million. The buying power accumulated from continuous inflows was basically interrupted by a one-time shock. It is worth noting that the ETF fund outflow occurred in the same time window as the Binance security incident, indicating that institutional funds currently prefer to reduce risk exposure rather than buy the dip.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently in a narrow range around $77,000. On November 1, the price was about $77,725, with an intraday high-low fluctuation of only about $656, which is a relatively low volatility level recently. This trend indicates that bulls and bears are temporarily in balance, but after a rapid decline, low volatility does not necessarily mean the bottom has been formed; rather, it may be waiting for new news to stimulate. In the short term, focus on the support around $76,300; if it breaks down effectively, it may further test $75,000. On the upside, pay attention to the resistance area between $78,000 and $80,000. Only by stabilizing above $80,000 again can the short-term structure be initially improved. $BTC price broke below the trendline, the rebound did not create a new high, and it broke below the secondary high's low point again, which aligns with Dow Theory's 123 rule. A double divergence appeared on the 15-minute chart, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The bullish positions below show that bulls exerted the greatest effort at the highest point but failed to produce results—effort without effect. This indicates that bears have taken short-term control of the market. Finally, a 15-minute candlestick closed below 78444, confirming the bears' entry. Stop loss is set at the previous high, and there are two take-profit levels: the first at the low point of this short-term trend, and the second at the daily 120 EMA. The final risk-reward ratio is about 3.5. The market may not always follow expectations, so be ready to take profits early on short positions.The U.S. midterm elections are coming!
Prediction markets show the Democrats have about a 93% chance of taking the House, around 70% for the Senate, and about a 70% chance of sweeping both chambers.
Three things related to the crypto space:
First, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on September 15, and with Congress changing hands, the legislative pace will likely be reset;
Second, the market worries that the U.S. might take action against Iran again after the election, which would push oil prices up and raise expectations for interest rate hikes;
Third, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record trading volumes in October, and election week will only get crazier.
On top of that, some voices at the Fed are calling for rate hikes,
Binance was hacked last week,
and this week $BTC is caught between politics, interest rates, and negative news, so it might be a bit difficult for it to have an independent rally.$FIL
Decentralized storage has a compelling proposition, but convincing customers to move beyond traditional cloud providers is not an easy task. Filecoin's long-term opportunity depends on practical storage demand, retrieval performance, pricing competitiveness, and reliable service providers. The technology addresses a genuine infrastructure challenge. However, sustainable customer activity will be a more meaningful indicator than network capacity alone.The unrealized gains of $ETH have been wiped out, meaning those who wanted to take profits have finished selling.
$ETH is now standing at the 2200 line.
The 20-day moving average at 2424 is still pressing overhead.
How is this number calculated: unrealized gains reset to zero means even the last batch of high-level buyers are no longer making a profit.
When they sell, the selling pressure is passed on to the next batch of buyers with lower cost.
In plain language: those willing to take profits at this price level have basically cleared out.
What remains are those unwilling to admit losses and those who just took over.
$SOL is stuck at the lower edge of the 90 to 125 range.
On-chain active addresses are 1.88 million, still a new high.
Active addresses mean people are using it, not necessarily buying it.
These two things are often confused.
The profit-taking selling is done, but that doesn’t mean buying is coming in.
It only indicates that the number of people pushing the price down has decreased.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$ETH $SOL 🔥 Don't rush to declare that a new super bull market for BTC has arrived! The truly dangerous market often isn't when no one is bullish, but when everyone starts believing in the bull market again while risks quietly accumulate.
📈 I lean towards one possibility: the current rise might just be a B-wave rebound within the bear market, also known as a "Fool’s Rally." Prices can rise, sentiment can heat up, and it might even make the market believe the super bull market is about to start, but that doesn't mean the bear market structure has ended.
🎯 What’s more worrisome is if this rebound surges all the way to $115,000, market sentiment could quickly heat up, and targets like $200,000 or $500,000 will be repeatedly mentioned. By then, more and more chasing funds might enter, and risks could be masked by optimistic sentiment.
⚠️ If this is just a temporary rebound within the bear market, then once it weakens again, the pullback could be quite severe. Of course, the B-wave judgment and the $115,000 target are just scenario projections and must be verified with subsequent price action.
🧠 The most important thing today is not guessing how high the bull market can go, but distinguishing between a rebound and a reversal. Brothers, do you think this BTC rally is a true new bull market, or the last spree within the bear market? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I'm a bit skeptical about "never selling." HODLing Bitcoin can be a long-term plan, but pretending the sell button doesn't exist—I just can't do that. Seeing companies buy in for the long haul, I admire their patience, but they have operating cash flow; I can't just copy that directly. If it were a strategy, there should be an exit for situations like needing cash urgently or changing your judgment. Otherwise, if you keep dollar-cost averaging and suddenly need money, do you have to argue with the tough promises you made to yourself at the start?A reduction in supply does not necessarily mean that the trading volume decreases proportionally. Upon seeing this news, my first reaction was not to rush into interpreting the "29%" as panic; the more eye-catching the number, the more important it is to understand exactly which layer it measures.
CryptoSlate cited ledger data showing that RLUSD's supply on the XRPL dropped by 29%, but the reserve of a $XRP/RLUSD trading pool changed little, and the situation of funded orders showed differentiation. As for the reason behind the supply decrease, it remains unclear at this time.
My judgment is that this is more like a liquidity signal that needs to be analyzed in parts and is not enough to conclude a full capital withdrawal. Supply is a total metric, while pool reserves correspond to local trading scenarios; the lack of synchronized contraction between the two indicates that the former cannot directly substitute for the latter. Conversely, a stable pool cannot serve as proof for the entire chain.
For ordinary users, I believe whether orders can absorb trades is closer to the actual experience than the supply figures themselves. If subsequently the pool reserves and funded orders both weaken, I will then raise my alert for trading friction. This is my observation approach, not a conclusion that has already occurred.
I will continue to monitor the reasons for the decline and whether liquidity changes synchronously, avoiding attaching premature narratives to a striking percentage.上个月开会10个人同意先按兵不动，但居然有2个人当场要求立刻加。达拉斯联储的洛根更是直接说至少还得再加两次、每次0.25个点。美联储这帮人真够狠的！ $BTC 在7.7万-7.8万美元附近震荡。10月整月跌得挺狠，从8万多一路滑下来，跌破了之前的支撑区间，短线明显偏弱。但上方8万关口压力较大，反弹是比较困难的。 $ETH 现在在2250美元左右。同样10月跌幅更大，资金明显在轮动回比特币，关键支撑在2200附近，上方2300-2350是比较强的阻力带，想要突破难度一样不小。 现在既有强烈的加息预期，又要出10月非农数据。短期已经被利率预期压得喘不过气了！ 就看非农落地后能不能给个明确方向了。 #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 📊 MARKET BRIEF – NOVEMBER 2, 2026
📈 MARKET UPDATE
• Gold rebounds to $3,900/oz.
• Bitcoin rises slightly to $78,000, while altcoins remain weak.
• Iran proposes a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
🚨 HIGHLIGHTS
• Binance: Nearly $6B in reported net withdrawals, mainly to personal wallets.
• Crypto ETFs: Weekly outflows of $202.6M (BTC), $431.5M (ETH), and $71M (SOL).
• OKXICE: Growing opposition to its tokenized stock initiative.
• BTCPay Server: Issues an urgent security warning. The market has rebounded, but everyone should note, the bears still dominate!
Chart 1 shows the long and short positions across the entire market; the major coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The hyperliquid top traders are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Chart 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 round number; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed down by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36—not oversold, but indicating no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back up to 2,300, leading the rally. But the foundation is still fractured: spot ETF funds retreated 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH—if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, hovering around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold, yet no funds are coming in to catch it. SOL is fundamentally strong but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, you can accumulate a bit at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there’s not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time.#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
The October nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 60,000, up from the previous 29,000. If the data meets expectations, it will strengthen bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with the current market pricing probability rising to about 75%. Hawkish divisions within the Fed are also widening, with the Dallas Fed President even suggesting at least two more rate hikes are needed.
The simultaneous sharp declines in U.S. stocks and gold are typical symptoms of a liquidity squeeze rather than a failure of safe-haven logic. The tech stock sell-off triggered institutional portfolio rebalancing and margin calls, forcing investors to sell gold to raise cash, causing gold to fall alongside risk assets in the short term. The high interest rate and strong dollar environment continue to suppress gold's rebound potential, with gold's safe-haven attribute giving way to liquidity needs.
$BTC's correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield has risen above 0.6, with the pricing focus shifting from pure "risk appetite" to a "sovereign credit hedge" narrative. However, high real interest rates still suppress valuation expansion. The current rebound relies more on leverage than incremental spot buying, with stablecoin supply showing no significant expansion. A true trend reversal requires sustained inflows of new capital. Meanwhile, after the Binance security incident in October, the industry's coordinated fund-freezing mechanism is beginning to take shape. CertiK estimates that cumulative industry losses by 2026 have reached about $9.2 billion, and the patching of security infrastructure is becoming part of the medium- to long-term credit reconstruction of crypto assets.
Risk appetite for U.S. stocks and crypto will continue to be under pressure, and gold is unlikely to strengthen independently before liquidity pressures ease; if data disappoints, the suppression of various assets may temporarily loosen.Seeing this message, I reflected on a bit of life experience: adding a big item, the purchase price is eye-catching, but the daily expenses afterward are easy to overlook. I study digital assets and am also used to first checking this detailed account.
ZEC contract open interest increased from about $571 million to $662 million over 4 hours, a 15.95% increase; during the same period, the price changed from $1241 to $1278. The funding rate is 0.0047% per hour, approximately 42% annualized. I think this message carries more weight for those planning to hold contracts long-term than for those just watching the excitement.
The expansion of open interest is more significant than the price change, indicating deeper contract participation, but this does not mean everyone is betting on a rise; if the positive funding rate continues, longs also bear costs, so direction judgment and holding costs must be calculated separately. The annualized figure is just a projection based on the current rate, not a full-year bill. Young friends, don’t just focus on price gains; I also remind myself: next, watch if the funding rate can fall, and don’t mistake the hype for confidence.$BEAT The original control beauty — this is not just coin speculation, it's a dog trader playing bungee jumping!
【Hardcore Review】:
On the 1-hour chart, it irrationally surged from the bottom at 0.065, skyrocketing nearly double to 0.115, now oscillating high at 0.105. Looking at the MACD red bars shortening, momentum is clearly exhausted.
Looking at the data in chart 3, I broke out in a cold sweat: the proportion of long accounts is as high as 69.38%! Retail investors are all immersed in this violent rise, crazily chasing longs.
Macro and Insights:
Market liquidity is extremely scarce now, speculative funds can only pick coins with small and controllable markets. The violent surge is just to attract retail investors to take the plate, creating a money-making illusion. This is not value discovery at all, purely a meat grinder of capital games.
My advice:
Too many longs at the high level means death! This kind of stock controlled by manipulators with no technical basis often follows violent surges with violent chain spike washouts. Don't chase the highs, and don't try to guess the top. Wait for it to really drop a big bearish candle, blowing out this 69% of longs, then we consider catching on the right side.US Midterm Elections vs $BTC
Look at the historical rhythm:
Midterm Years (Drawdowns):
🔴 2014: -57%
🔴 2018: -73%
🔴 2022: -64%
The Year After (Recoveries):
🟢 2015: +34%
🟢 2019: +92%
🟢 2023: +155%
2026 is a midterm year. We are currently in that period of political uncertainty and price drawdown.
But if history rhymes, the real explosive leg up comes *after* the elections when the political fog clears. The four-year halving cycle overlaps perfectly with this political cycleOn the same morning, Asian stock markets were split in two. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index surged 2.85%, led by AI hardware, semiconductors, and optical communications; meanwhile, the Singapore Strait Index hit its lowest point since July, and despite explosive export data from South Korea, the Korean won weakened as foreign capital withdrew from the stock market.
Don't be fooled by the red and green of a single market. When some rise 3% and others hit new lows in one day, it means money isn't leaving the market but moving within Asia—from places drained by foreign capital to sectors like AI hardware that still have stories to tell.
Watching the market means not just focusing on index ups and downs but tracking capital flows. Where money moves in, the story isn't over; where money is pulled out, even strong fundamentals can't withstand the selling pressure. Following where the money goes is far more useful than just watching which index rises or falls. Conclusion first: $TRUMP rose from 1.589 to a high of 1.777 in the past 24 hours, now at 1.701, up 7.1%. But what should be focused on is not the increase, but three numbers.
① At 22:00 on 11-01, the 1H trading volume was 40.34 million USD, 25.8 times that of the previous hour, with the price surging from 1.617 to 1.777.
② Open interest simultaneously rose from 14.44 million USD to 17.84 million, up 23.5%. When the price rose, people really added positions, not just shorts covering.
③ The funding rate stayed at the floor price of 0.005% for 9 consecutive periods, with the perpetual premium at zero—there was no short squeeze premium; longs were buying piece by piece.
Money bag: OKX perpetual 24-hour trading volume was 178 million USD, 4.2 times the spot volume of 42.6 million; the top 20 perpetual buy orders totaled 1.5 million USD, while spot only had 300,000. Perpetual contracts have less slippage, but spikes and funding fees all remain on the perpetual side.
The background is the US midterm elections on November 3: the crypto industry spent 200 million USD on votes, and the CLARITY Act’s chance of passing is close to zero due to a Senate setback. The rise is a political expectation premium, not on-chain data. I haven’t found any specific announcement explaining this wave, so don’t take 1.777 as an anchor.
For this election week wave, is 1.777 the top or just the first stage? $TRUMP🔥The pressure on BTC may not be over yet! What makes this drop worth watching is that gold and US stocks are also under pressure simultaneously, so the risk is not just coming from within the crypto space.
📉 On November 2nd, my BTC trading bias remains bearish. Around 78500 is a key observation zone; if the price rebounds to this level but fails to hold firmly and shows clear signs of weakening, I will consider looking for short opportunities. My overall downward view for this week remains unchanged for now, with continued attention on 72000 below.
🌍 Why do I remain cautious? Because market risk appetite is being affected by multiple factors. Gold is weakening, US stocks are adjusting, and crypto assets can hardly stay completely unaffected. Once capital tends to reduce risk exposure, high-volatility assets are often hit harder.
🧠 However, shorting should not be based solely on directional judgment. 78500 is just an observation price, not an unconditional entry signal. If the price breaks through resistance strongly and holds, we must guard against the bearish view failing.
⚠️ What I value more is trading discipline: wait for confirmation on rebounds, set stop losses when entering, keep position sizes reasonable, avoid holding losing positions stubbornly, and don’t add blindly. 72000 is the current target expectation, not a guaranteed price to reach.
Brothers, do you think BTC still has rebound potential this week, or will the bearish trend continue to dominate? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ In the first 10 hours after withdrawals resumed, Binance saw a net outflow of $3.64 billion. BTC rebounded over the weekend, and some community members said the incident was over and funds had returned.
I don't see it that way.
If even market makers pull their funds, the order book thins out — the depth for the same sell order will be completely different. When FTX collapsed in 2022, the market was dealing with more than just the exchange's own problems; it was a chain reaction after liquidity collectively withdrew. The nature is different, but the thinning of the order book happened back then.
Withdrawal data is still changing. For the past couple of days, I’m treating the market as if it’s recovering. If withdrawals stabilize, order book depth returns, and ETF funds flow back in, I will revise my judgment.On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets. Among 32 economists, 31 bet on a rate hike, with only one from Deutsche Bank betting on a pause. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly did not raise rates.
This kind of situation is exactly the scenario I like. When a result is priced in 100% by the market, guessing the right direction hardly makes money—if rates rise, it just confirms expectations and prices remain unchanged; but if rates don’t rise, the Australian dollar and short-term bonds immediately reprice, and the odds pay out several times over.
Trading and playing cards follow the same principle: when everyone bets on one side, the real value lies on the opposite side. It’s not about betting on the underdog, but learning to place heavy bets only when the odds are severely asymmetric, and otherwise holding back. Low frequency, big bets, waiting for asymmetry—these three are what allow you to survive long-term, not guessing daily price ups and downs.The whole screen is teaching you to use Middle East headlines as a hedge, but let me show you some data that no one is watching: Tokyo's electricity price just hit a new high since September 2022, and the LNG spot price has risen to 34 USD per million BTU, more than three times the pre-war level.
This is the real transmission path of the Middle East chess game. Oil and gas prices are at high levels, first pushing inflation, then keeping yields in various countries from falling, and finally hitting risk assets together. Mitsubishi UFJ said it very plainly today: the rise in US yields combined with high oil prices will continue to pressure emerging market currencies and assets.
So stop treating the war as a bullish factor and blindly buying hedges. The real pricing is—this is a conflict being traded as if it were a rate hike. Gold has fallen along with it these past two days, which is the best reminder: the hedge narrative is invalid in this game.🔥 On November 2nd, BTC rebounded to around 78,500, but I still prefer to look for shorting opportunities! The overall approach this week remains unchanged: do not easily change the bearish plan until the trend reverses.
📉 My judgment is that this round of decline is not just a problem within the crypto space. Gold has recently been under clear pressure, the US stock market has also experienced adjustments, and global risk assets are all under stress. When the whole nest is in trouble, no egg can remain intact. When overall market risk appetite declines, it's not easy for the crypto market to stay unaffected.
🎯 If BTC rebounds to around 78,500, I will focus on observing whether there are signs of stagnation, volume resistance, or a pullback after a spike, then consider setting up short positions. Without confirmed signals, do not blindly chase shorts; if the price effectively holds above key resistance levels, also adjust the strategy in time.
⚠️ The current bearish target still focuses on 72,000, but the target does not mean it will definitely be reached. The most important thing in trading is not to guess right every time, but to control position size, set stop losses, avoid holding losing positions, and not stubbornly resist.
Brothers, do you think BTC will first rebound to 78,500 today, or will it continue directly toward 72,000? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $AKE dropped 30%, I switched back to the group chat, I almost want to slap my own thigh blue!
【Hardcore review of this "missed the meat grinder" wave】:
Looking at the screenshots in the group, at 00:06 AM, big brother @熠光 openly said: "ake can still be shorted, you go with a small position to take a taste." What did I reply at that time? "Dare not, too thrilling... I want to hold it, it will rise tomorrow, otherwise I can't sleep."
Now look, with AKE's chart today, I can't sleep, and I'm even scrambling for rooftop space!
Look at this 1-hour chart, plunging from 0.03209 all the way down to 0.00585, today it crashed another -30.97%! All moving averages are in a waterfall-like bearish alignment, bottomless. Looking at the data in chart 2, my scalp tingles: the funding rate has already dropped to an extreme negative value of -0.443%, yet the long position ratio is still as high as 73.69%! Retail investors are crazily catching falling knives halfway down the mountain, and the manipulators seeing this full screen of longs, how could they stop without slaughtering you?
Macro logic: In a weak market with tight liquidity, new coins are just ATMs for manipulators, there is simply no bottom.
My advice: Use the most cautious instinct to miss the fattest crash. Since it has already fallen this far, don't bet on any "oversold rebound" bottom fishing now; going long here is just delivering takeout to the manipulators. If you haven't entered short positions, just watch the show honestly, wait for the rebound near the moving averages before shorting on the right side.BTC, ETH, ZEC Liquidation Pain Points｜The Long-Short Double Kill Range Is Already Set 📊
After a wave of rally, it quickly weakened and pulled back. The core reason is that the price touched the upper short pain point range, where short selling pressure is concentrated and released.
Several coins surged and hit the dense short positions, bulls lacked strength to support, and the market directly turned down.
📊 24h Liquidation Pain Points:
$BTC Current price 78613
Short pain point 78904 (+0.37%), Long pain point 77242 (-1.78%)
The upper short pain point is very close; a slight pull can trigger the liquidation zone; the lower long pain point has more space. BTC can easily spike down to shake out shorts before turning down to sweep longs.
$ETH Current price 2308
Short pain point 2319 (+0.50%), Long pain point 2268 (-1.73%)
Close to BTC’s rhythm, upper resistance is just a step away, limited upper space, mainly oscillating and tugging.
$ZEC Current price 1280
Short pain point 1301 (+1.57%), Long pain point 1206 (-6.17%)
Focus on ZEC! The upper short pain point is not far; moving up can trigger short liquidation; the lower long pain point has ample space. Once broken, many longs below are waiting to be harvested. Approaching NU7 upgrade, elasticity far exceeds mainstream.
In comparison: BTC and ETH have close upper short pressure, limited upward space, oscillation and repetition are the main theme.
ZEC still has a small upper short sweep space, but the "slaughterhouse" space for longs below is larger, intensifying the long-short battle.AI, the toughest target in this round, is starting to soften. OpenAI has slashed its current round financing target by $10 billion at once, with its valuation adjusted down to 1.25 trillion. Note, this is the primary market, the most sought-after card, discounting itself.
Many people still treat the recent drop as a correction, thinking to buy in after a deep fall. I've always said this is deleveraging, not a correction. The evidence is here: it's not a secondary market sentiment crash, but even the pricing on the financing side is retracting. The demand is real; AI inference calls have increased a thousandfold in a year, but demand never truly equals reasonable pricing.
Bubbles never burst starting from the worst assets; they begin to loosen from the most expensive and most believed ones. As a risk asset shadow, $BTC shouldn't be expected to remain unaffected at times like this. The small position I hold is waiting for the right spot, not bottom fishing.