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Société Générale transferred $10 million of U.S. Treasury bonds to a counterparty through DTCC's tokenization service, with Canton Network providing the network. The amount is not large, but this is the first time a systemically important bank has truly moved Treasury bonds as on-chain collateral.
Why is this noteworthy? The old problem in the collateral market is "illiquidity." Treasury bonds are the highest quality collateral globally, but once they are held in a custodian, moving them to serve as margin for another transaction requires a full process of reconciliation, confirmation, and settlement, and cross-institution exposure is unclear.
Tokenization turns these bonds into on-chain certificates. When the certificate moves, ownership moves simultaneously, and the status can be checked in real time. So the seemingly plain statement from Salim Nemouchi, Head of Americas Global Equity at Société Générale, is key: this transaction demonstrates that tokenized collateral can be transferred between market participants. Transferability is what creates liquidity.
Canton Network's statement is also worth noting: the service initially focuses only on U.S. Treasury bonds held by DTCC members and custodied at DTC. The scope is deliberately narrow, starting with the most standardized and legally clear instruments before expanding outward.
Compared to native assets like $BTC, the difference is this: coins are inherently on-chain, while Treasury bonds must first be converted into an on-chain format. No one facilitates this step for traditional funds, so they cannot enter. The $10 million is a low-cost pilot; the highlight will be the scale of the next transaction.In the past 7 days, Binance platform has had a total withdrawal of 15.1 billion USD. $BNB
In the past 24 hours, the inflow of funds has slightly decreased by 2.4 billion USD.
This is a huge number, but still not as high as during FTX in 2022, when confidence in CEX exchanges plummeted.
Binance's total assets still remain above 100 billion USD, reaching 124.83 billion USD.The overlooked trio, each with its own storyline (￣▽￣)~*
The market has indeed been quiet these days; no one is paying attention to the ups and downs of $STRK, $NEAR, and $BCH, as if they've been forgotten in a corner (´･ω･`)
STRK is hovering around its yearly low of 0.10–0.11. Breaking away from Ethereum to become a quantum-resistant L1 sounds grand, but essentially it's a long-term gamble (｡•́︿•̀｡). The short-term on-chain incentives are just a little sugar that can't satisfy the selling pressure; with no organic buying, the price can only lie flat.
NEAR is relatively tougher. Accounts can directly upgrade to quantum resistance, and the AI Agent has partnered with NVIDIA, so the storyline isn't bad (ง •̀_•́)ง. The price is holding support around 4.00–4.20, with RSI just above 40, but no sign of a bottom yet. The technicals are more honest than the price—if 4.00 doesn't break, consider it still range-bound; the drop is due to macro factors, the logic remains intact (￣ω￣).
BCH is the most boring, grinding around 284. CME futures are up, the BCHG spot ETF S-3 filing is progressing, institutional channels are being paved one by one, but it has the worst elasticity (－_－) zZ. No get-rich-quick narrative here; it's fine for allocation, but don't expect it to lead a charge.
In this overlooked market, each has its own way to endure. STRK bets on the future, NEAR holds support, BCH lays the groundwork—who will break out first? No one knows, but at least none have collapsed (◔‿◔)The price surge of $BTC to 78,000 tonight was so exciting. The trading volume of that one 1-hour candlestick reached 46,000. However, it closed as a Pin Bar, leaving a long wick above. Despite such a large volume, it couldn't hold the price, indicating a high-level volume stagnation. The price not only failed to stay high but also gave back most of the gains.
In the past few hours, the price tried to push up again. Several 15-minute bullish candles moved upward, but the trading volume kept shrinking. The price was rising, but the volume was decreasing, showing a mismatch between volume and price. A rebound lacking volume support cannot sustain the follow-up bullish momentum. Even a slight selling pressure makes it hard for the price to advance.
Looking at the daily chart, the 78,000 level is exactly a daily resistance. The 4-hour EMA lines are also in a bearish alignment, with major resistance above. The recent volume surge failed to break through, and now with shrinking volume, it's even harder to overcome the pressure.
I personally lean bearish. The current price is hitting key daily resistance with heavy selling pressure above. Without volume to absorb large sell orders, breaking resistance is difficult. I expect a high probability of a downward pullback next.
$ETH $SOL #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Tonight, the crypto world might face an epic case of "paying to suffer."
I just took a quick look at the real-time odds for the midterm elections, and I really feel for the industry bigwigs.
Not long ago, the crypto industry painstakingly raised $176 million in political donations, spending heavily on lobbying everywhere, hoping that after the elections the CLARITY Act would pass, giving us a more relaxed regulatory environment.
But before the results come in tonight, reality just slapped us hard: prediction markets show the Democrats' chance of taking the House has soared to 95%.
What does this mean? Bloomberg did the math directly: if the Democrats sweep both chambers, the median year-end Bitcoin price prediction crashes to 76,450; if it's a split Congress, it's 84,100; only if the Republicans win outright can it reach 90,800.
$176 million in cold hard cash spent, and it looks like we're buying the worst-case scenario.
Bitcoin is still below 80,000 now, just one breath away. I haven't opened a single position yet—not because I'm not tempted by this volatility, but because I'm afraid that after tonight's results, there will be a straight guillotine cut.
$SOL $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $FIL brothers, FIL looks really weak this round, stuck at 0.885 and can't break through no matter what, clearly under heavy pressure, might even have a big drop coming, brothers.
This rally looks more like a brief bull trap. Looking at the whale data, bears dominate the majority, short positions massively outweigh longs, and the bears are currently very strong.
Based on this trend, the first target is 0.8. Even if it falls to this level, it will probably be hard to hold. Most likely, it will just briefly consolidate and shake out before continuing downward, first testing 0.7. If support fails there, 0.6 is also possible to reach.
This coin has been steadily declining recently, with very weak rebounds. Every pump just gives bears an entry opportunity. The bulls' confidence has long been lost. Now, following the trend to be bearish is completely reasonable. Small and large non-farm payrolls are coming, and the market is waiting for the data
The rhythm this week is clear: small non-farm on Wednesday, large non-farm on Friday, and the rate decision on December 13. CME currently prices about a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. To change this probability, we need to watch these two data releases.
$BTC at 77622, dipped to 76450 during the day, climbed back at night, just shy of 78000. But at 78204, 16.8 million is at 0.75%, with layers of resistance at 78786 and 79174, no new volume, so 78000 is hard to hold. Underfoot, 75681 has 51.8 million waiting at -2.5%.
$ETH at 2301, back above 2300, but fluctuated several times today at this level. 10.6 million is pressing at 2376, with support at 2244 and 2215. It’s oscillating within the range, indecisive, fully dependent on Bitcoin. The fear and greed index is still at 26, just one point away from extreme fear; sentiment hasn’t recovered.
$SOL at 93.77, bounced back from around 91, 90 hasn’t broken for now, but 6 million is pressing at 97.29, so the rebound space is limited.
With data not yet released, I don’t consider this grinding upward rebound a reversal to chase.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Behind BEAT's Slight Rise: Financing Costs Quietly Increasing 📈
BEAT is currently trading around 0.10121, with a 3.0% increase drawing many people's attention to the "bull continuation," but they overlook the changing holding costs. The latest financing rate is 0.0125%, up from the previous 0.0115%, meaning that for every additional period a long position is held, higher fees must be paid. 💸
This does not directly negate the price increase but will slowly wear down the bulls' patience. If the price continues to rise and the financing rate keeps climbing, be wary of the falsification signal of "price can rise but holding becomes exhausting." ⚠️
In terms of operation, don't just look at the candlesticks. Open the position list, check the size of BEAT long positions, calculate how long the ongoing financing costs can be sustained, and then decide whether to reduce positions or set proper exit conditions. 🧾✅Maywell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum to strengthen AI optical communications, indicating that tech capital is still leaning towards computing infrastructure. This mildly supports risk appetite, but the coin price has not yet followed suit. I judge the short term to still be a zero-sum game. The four-hour level is weak, down 8.07% from the high; the one-hour is rising but only 1.14% below the peak; current price 77682.7, slightly up 0.2%, with a turnover of 7.207 million, relatively light. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 3.37, with noticeably strong buy orders; the funding rate of 0.01% shows lukewarm bullish sentiment. You can lightly go long at 77385 with a stop loss at 76940 and a target of 78460; if it rises to around 78490 and stalls, go short with a stop loss at 78920 and a target of 77720. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total funds; exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局
#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局
$BTC 🚨 BTC Touched $76,400, But Where Are The Buyers?
Bitcoin hit the retracement level I mentioned yesterday, but I'm not celebrating just yet.
Yes, we saw a few bullish candles around $76,500. But look closer — where is the volume? Where is the strong buying pressure?
A few green candles and a long wick don't automatically mean a real recovery.
Right now, the market feels like you're waiting for a reply and all you get is a dry "hmm." 😂
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit $BTC is experiencing positioning issues.
Spot buyers are involved.
But derivatives traders are still selling.
Latest data from Glassnode:
→ Spot CVD: -$78.6 million → +$25.3 million
→ Perpetual funding subsidy: -$381.7 million → -$564.8 million
→ Funding for long positions: +40.5% to $3.1 million/day
This is contradictory:
Spot demand is improving, while leveraged traders remain in a defensive stance.
Is AI wrong?
Let's see if spot buying can absorb the ongoing sell-off—or if crowded long positions will become the next forced liquidation source.The intraday market continued the downward momentum from Monday, falling back to around 76400 before breaking above to around 77800, perfectly fulfilling the 1200+50⚡️ range during the day.
Early Wednesday:
Around 77300-76800↑, targeting around 78300-78800.
Around 2278-2258↑, targeting around 2325-2355.
$BTC $ETH Leverage long-short ratio is 22:1, how should this signal be interpreted?
Bitcoin borrowed for long positions is 1507.55 coins, while borrowed for short positions is only 68.89 coins; for $SOL, the disparity is even greater, with 129,900 coins long versus 3,148 coins short. Dividing these gives 22 times and 41 times respectively.
The calculation is simple: borrowed coins used with leverage to buy means going long; borrowed coins sold immediately expecting a drop means going short. Dividing the two yields the degree of crowding.
The real meaning of this calculation is not in the numbers themselves, but in the chip structure. A one-sided long position indicates that basically all the leverage funds that could enter the market have done so. Without new buying support following, if the price shakes a bit, the first to exit will be those who borrowed money to open positions—they have the highest cost and the most fragile psychology.
But note, this crowding cleans out leverage, not spot holdings. Long-term holders don’t need to move their positions because what gets shaken out is borrowed money, not your coins. Clearing leverage actually makes the base more solid.
What really needs caution is: when everyone thinks the direction is certain, the damage from reverse fluctuations is greatest. It’s not that the direction is wrong, but that the crowding on the vehicle is too dense, and those who can’t keep their balance when braking are the first to fall out. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$APR Large buy order cost decreases, sell order cost increases. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy/sell changed from 3.21%/0.66% to 2.02%/0.77%. Compared to the previous window, one side's cost rises while the other's falls.
$PONS Large buy order cost increases, small buy order cost remains almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy increased from 0.87% to 0.99%. 10k buy remains about 0.12%. When costs worsen, adjust order size, not directional view.
$AKE After amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides significantly increases. Simulated slippage for 10k scale buy/sell is 0.17%/0.12%, for 100k is 0.90%/0.81%. This is a cost table, not direction; simultaneous cost increase on both sides indicates overall shallow depth.Tomorrow is very likely to be a typical "event-driven spike day." $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The midterm election vote counts will come out gradually; the critical window is from the morning to noon Beijing time on November 4, but the Senate swing states may not be clear for a few days. During this "undecided result" phase, volatility itself is the biggest product.
BTC options implied volatility has already jumped to 43.5%, indicating the market is buying hedging insurance rather than betting on a single direction. Coupled with ongoing ETF outflows and the lingering effects of the Binance hack, liquidity is thin, so spikes up and down to sweep stop losses will be frequent.
In terms of the election, the Democrats have a high probability of taking the House, while the Senate remains uncertain. If a "split Congress" forms, major bills won’t pass, and policy uncertainty will actually decrease, which historically isn’t bad for the stock market. But for the crypto space, crypto-friendly legislation will slow down, and short-term will be more about emotional volatility.
Operationally, don’t chase spikes tomorrow. After the spikes up and down, see if demand can hold; if it stabilizes, then talk about a rebound; if not, continue treating it as a range-bound market. Leave room in your position and wait for the results to become clear before making moves. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Why can hackers breach Binance, Bybit, and Bitget, but never touch Coinbase? 🧵👇
They have securely stored 959,000 bitcoins, worth as much as $103.31 billion, safely for 14 years without incident.
1. No giant honeypot: 69.8 million independent user deposit addresses
Most exchanges, to speed up withdrawals, consolidate tens of billions of funds into a few hot wallets.
Once hackers breach operational permissions, they can sweep all assets at once.
Coinbase’s logic is completely different. It uses MPC (Multi-Party Computation) security, with no complete private key existing; private keys are split into fragments and stored separately in independent hardware chips.
The 69.8 million addresses are not wallets storing Coinbase’s own funds but are exclusive deposit addresses assigned individually to users.
Coinbase’s real funds are still centrally stored in official hot and cold wallet systems.
But this mechanism remains unbreakably secure:
In October 2026, hackers breached Binance’s operational computer, hijacked hot wallet signing permissions, and stole $6.36 billion in 20 minutes.
However, at Coinbase, even if hackers infiltrate employee computers, they only get fragmented, invalid key shards, making it impossible to sign and transfer assets.The pattern of the last three midterm elections has been broken by Bitcoin this year
$BTC
Tonight, American voters head to the polls. The first vote counts will be released during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.
While waiting for the results, let's talk about a data pattern that few people have noticed.
In the last three U.S. midterm election days (2014, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin was always below the 200-day moving average—35%, 9%, and 22% below this line respectively. To translate: Bitcoin was in a bear market during the past three midterms.
This year is different. Currently, BTC is about $76,900, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average (around $73,169). The long-term trend line is still underfoot.
All three historical samples showed "weakness before the election," but the fourth time shows "strength before the election"—is this a change in the pattern or just noise? Don't rush to conclusions; let's break down the data.
First, let's look at the reason for the "anomaly"
This year's bear market looks different from the previous three: the drop was shallow and early—mainly concentrated in January and February, after which the price center repeatedly built between $70,000 and $80,000. By election day, the price had already climbed halfway out of the pit, naturally standing above the 200-day moving average.
In other words, it's not that the price surged this year, but that it fell early. Different positions lead to different starts.
Now, let's look at the truly valuable part of the pattern
Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, reviewed a more interesting statistic: in the first few months after midterm elections, Bitcoin usually oscillates or leans slightly bearish; but in the following 12 months, it rose in all three cases.
There is clear logic behind this script: elections bring policy uncertainty → capital waits on the sidelines → uncertainty disappears after results are finalized → liquidity reprices risk assets. No matter how Congress changes, the landing of the boot itself is positive—the biggest enemy of the market is uncertainty.
Two possible vote outcomes, two scripts
- Republicans hold Congress: crypto-friendly legislation (such as the "Clarity Act") continues to advance, regulatory discount improves, benefits are directly realized
- Democrats flip control: short-term suppression of risk appetite, but the market also has another interpretation—the policy focus may shift to ending geopolitical conflicts, lowering oil prices and inflation, which may not be entirely negative for risk assets
Note, neither script is one-sided. This is why election night often sees "initial spikes followed by direction setting"—algorithms and short-term funds first sweep out stop losses on both sides.
My view
Short term: volatility on election night is certain, direction is uncertain. The $73,000 level (200-day moving average) below $77,000 is a position bulls must defend; if broken, the "strong start" story falls apart.
Mid to long term: although the sample of three elections with 12 months of subsequent gains is small, the logic is consistent. If prices dip then rebound after this election, the historical pattern will likely rhyme again.
Data won't make decisions for you, but it can help you know what to watch when others panic.
Do you think Bitcoin will replay the "oscillate for a few months, then rise for 12 months" script after this election? Leave your judgment in the comments.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice.)
#BTC #MidtermElection #HistoricalPattern #MarketAnalysisToday Yushu surged 18%, and my long-short strategy also made a little profit. How did I operate? (Feeding tutorial) Just like going long Tesla and short SpaceX, I am going long Yushu while simultaneously shorting Changxin Storage in equal amounts. The reasons are as follows: - As analyzed before, Yushu and Changxin have similar circulating supply ratios, with no new circulating supply in the short term, but bearish sentiment is severe. Since listing, it has dropped 60%, with nowhere left to fall. - Changxin is different; it has been consolidating at a high level for a long time, but it will unlock early next year, which is a strong support, and it is also dragged down by the AI market. Therefore, going long Yushu and short Changxin feels more comfortable, and you can also add several times leverage, making capital utilization very efficient BTC dropped to 76400 intraday, but I really can't get excited at all. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The retracement level I mentioned yesterday was hit, but take a close look at today's market. That strong demand on the smaller scale simply hasn't appeared.
It feels like what? Like you're waiting for a reply from someone, but all you get is a "hmm."
There were indeed a few bullish candles around 76500, but what about the volume? Not much. Don't shout rebound just because of a wick; the demand hurdle He Yipiao revealed a figure: In 2026, Binance's security team intercepted 57 suspected cyber threats linked to North Korea.
Notably, the methods were not technical vulnerabilities. Fake recruitment, malware, malicious packages and browser extensions, fake video conferences, social engineering—none of these five categories involved on-chain attacks; they all targeted people. Attackers don't need to crack private keys, they just need to convince an employee that the other side is a recruiter.
This is the real state of security battles at exchanges today. Over the past decade, the industry has focused budgets on cold wallets, multisig, and code audits, which are relatively mature; but the scale of 57 incidents shows the remaining gap lies with people. A fake interview link or a backdoored meeting software can bypass all cryptography.
For ordinary holders, the criteria must also change. Don't just look at how much reserve an exchange announces; see if it manages "people" as risk assets: whether internal permissions are tiered, employee devices are isolated, and social engineering drills are routine.
Another point worth considering: the state-level background of these attacks means they won't end after a single interception. The 57 cases are interception counts, not occurrence counts. Security has shifted from a one-time project to a long-term operational cost—whoever bears this cost more robustly will have a more stable market in the long run.$BTC This midterm election essentially represents the market's pricing of the Trump administration's fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical policies, with the core focus on the power structure of Congress. Three scenarios correspond to completely different asset logics. Priority should be on the control of both chambers: the House of Representatives is widely expected by the market to be taken by the Democrats, while the Senate remains more uncertain. The vote counting pace in swing states like Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas will directly stir the market. If Democrats only take the House and Republicans hold the Senate, this is the most familiar split Congress scenario for the market: fiscal expansion is blocked, new tax cut bills are unlikely to pass, US debt supply pressure eases, and debt ceiling brinkmanship risk rises. Historically, this environment tends to favor US stocks, with moderate tech regulation pace. If Democrats sweep both chambers, expectations for investigations, AI regulation, and tighter corporate taxes will quickly rise. Computing power and AI growth sectors may come under pressure, while there will be expectations of a softer stance on Iran, causing geopolitical premiums on oil prices to further decline. Conversely, if Republicans hold both chambers, fiscal stimulus, tariff increases, and energy deregulation policies will face little resistance, inflation stickiness expectations will rise, reinforcing a hawkish Fed pricing, and US Treasury yields are likely to rise. Beyond Congress, the results of swing state governors should not be overlooked, as they will determine the rules for immigration, energy, and industry implementation in each state over the next two years and will also serve as a barometer for the 2028 presidential election. Attention should also be paid to tail risks such as voting disputes and delayed counting; if disputes arise, short-term safe-haven buying will push up the dollar and gold. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Not just "metaphysics": Looking at the midterm election $BTC cycle bottom from a technical structure perspective
Many posts treat "bottoming after the midterm election" as a rule, but I think it's more worthwhile to analyze the underlying market structure and liquidity logic. Putting 2014 / 2018 / 2022 together, you can actually see a clear chain:
Election uncertainty → Risk premium rises → Leverage liquidation/liquidity exhaustion → Rapid bottom search → Macro liquidity shift → New round of expansion.
From a technical perspective, these types of bottoms usually share common characteristics:
1. Weekly RSI extremely oversold with divergence
It's not just about falling a lot, but the decline slows down and momentum no longer hits new lows.
2. Volume structure: high volume sell-off → low volume sideways → high volume reversal
After panic selling releases, if selling pressure quickly dries up, the bottom is often near.
3. Key moving averages/on-chain cost zone support
The $3,200 in 2018 and $15,500 in 2022 are not random numbers; they correspond to miner costs, long-term holder costs, and liquidity concentration zones.
4. Extreme market sentiment
Around the midterm elections, macro narratives combined with regulatory/fiscal expectations tend to create a "final drop." U.S. stocks are on a big bargain sale 😹 Last night, fortunately, Brother 800 escaped a disaster, but this morning, the triple-leveraged Philadelphia Semiconductor index dropped another 10% $SOXL, and Brother 800 chose to go long at 69.59 after hours 🙀🙀🙀 Hopefully this time it's really a solid bottom. In a few days, there's also the AMD earnings report, which is related to semiconductors. Personally, I think it's somewhat positive #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
$SKHY 147.75,
$SNDK 1090.9.
The previous surge to 82.93 was a classic bull trap. At that time, seeing the sector warming up, many bulls rushed in to lay ambushes, but now the bears are dumping with volume, and everyone is trapped.
The movements of the three are highly correlated. SOXL is triple-leveraged, so the decline is magnified; Hynix and SanDisk, as core storage stocks, are weakening in sync.
This is now a downward continuation pattern with heavy resistance above: SOXL's first resistance is 78.76, Hynix's resistance is 154.96, and SanDisk's resistance is 1143.2.
Short-term support: SOXL 69.36, Hynix 147.66, SanDisk 1090.2. Once support breaks, a new round of downside space will open.
Previously, we always hoped earnings would bring positive surprises, but the market no longer buys into positive logic. Macro pressures are weighing on tech stocks, and all good news is treated as an opportunity to sell. In this kind of market, high-leverage long positions have very low error tolerance; rebounds are more opportunities to cut losses and exit. Don't rush to add positions to lower your cost.Midterm elections might be the last leg???
$TRUMP
From the historical high of $83 down to now, a drop of over 96%, nearly a million wallets have cumulatively lost $3.8 billion, while Trump himself cashed out over $600 million. Is this data heartbreaking enough?
Essentially, it's selling a narrative, and narratives have a shelf life; once expired, they're worthless. Previously, Mar-a-Lago dinners, airport renaming—each time it was buying the expectation and selling the reality, pumping then dumping.
Tomorrow is midterm election day. Regardless of who wins or loses, once the shoe drops, the breath supporting the price will dissipate. History has proven this countless times, so manage your positions reasonably.Prices haven't moved, yet SOL has the most liquidations
The three coins' price changes are all within 1%, long-short ratios all declined, but SOL has the most liquidations.
$BTC: Slight drop, long-short ratio falling
Current price $77,610.6, down 0.36% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 2.63, 4 hours ago 2.75, decreased. Open interest about 2.588 billion U. In the last 130 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 219,000 U, shorts 141,000 U.
$ETH: The only one in the green, largest drop in long-short ratio
Current price $2,296.76, up 0.38% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 2.11, 4 hours ago 2.36, largest decrease. Open interest about 1.472 billion U. In the last 108 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 95,000 U, shorts 169,000 U.
$SOL: Price dropped slightly, most liquidations
Current price $93.65, down 0.51% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 3.32, 4 hours ago 3.39, decreased. Open interest about 336 million U. Funding rate -0.0004%, shorts pay longs. In the last 206 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 573,000 U, shorts 642,000 U.
Commentary: Long-short ratios all declined, SOL remains above 3.3, liquidations split evenly between longs and shorts, with the largest amounts.
Summary: Prices are stable, liquidations concentrated in SOL—are both sides taking hits, or are longs not fully squeezed out yet? Watch if 90.87 holds. For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 🚨 Stop using past bear market patterns to predict Bitcoin in 2026! $BTC
Recently, there's been a saying in the market: after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin tends to decline, so now is not the time to touch contracts, let alone use leverage.
But I think judging future trends solely based on historical years has significant problems.
What really matters is not whether BTC rises or falls after the election, but what differences exist in the market structure during each cycle.
📉 Looking back at the past three cycles:
2014: Bitcoin was in a long-term downtrend, the 200-day moving average kept declining, and the price was always suppressed by the moving average, with no clear reversal signals.
2018: The market was also in a deep bear market, the downtrend remained unchanged, buying lacked sustainability, and the overall structure was still weak.
2022: The downtrend was still obvious, the long-term moving average was not recovered, and the market did not show strong enough trend reversal signals.
So, what about 2026?
This is the most worthy topic for discussion!
🔥 This year's market structure has shown notable changes:
Bitcoin once broke through the key downtrend line and climbed back above the long-term moving average, indicating the market structure is not exactly the same as in previous bear phases.
Of course, a breakout does not necessarily mean entering a bull market, and a retest of the annual moving average still needs to be observed for effective support.
What I pay more attention to are three signals:
1️⃣ Can effective support form near the annual moving average? #Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ 💰 USDC 持續成長，Circle 財報就一定會超預期？
Circle (CRCL) is about to release its Q3 earnings! This time, I'm more focused not on the scale of USDC issuance, but on whether growth can truly translate into profit.
📊 Three key points to watch:
① Can the continuous expansion of USDC circulation drive revenue growth?
② Will interest rate changes and profit-sharing costs squeeze profits?
③ Can the Arc blockchain and payment business create new revenue streams?
🔍 My view:
Growth in the stablecoin market does not necessarily mean profits will increase in tandem. The real decisive factors in this earnings report are USDC scale, reserve income, and distribution costs!
⚠️ If revenue grows but profit margins cannot be maintained, the market may reassess CRCL's valuation.
🔥 Currently, about 40% of the community expects an earnings beat, while 60% are pessimistic.
📣 Do you think Circle will deliver a surprising earnings report, or have the positives already been priced in?
#Circle #CRCL #USDC #穩定幣 #美股財報季 #OKXFrom late October to early November 2026, XPL underwent a severe deleveraging. The drop within 24 hours reached 12%–13% at one point, with 30 candlesticks showing a volatility amplitude of about 24%, making it one of the most volatile assets in its category. Trigger factors included coordinated margin withdrawal by related wallets (over 2 million USDC), long position liquidations causing liquidity to dry up, and an instantaneous price plunge of about 18%.
Technical indicators entered a typical oversold + sentiment bottom combination:
RSI dropped to the 30–33 range, approaching or entering the oversold zone;
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 26–34, within the “Fear” range;
Price hovered near the lower Bollinger Band, but the MACD histogram showed signs of turning positive in some time frames, indicating a weakening downward momentum.
However, one detail is worth noting: despite the sharp price drop, the funding rate remained positive (+0.0050%), meaning longs were still paying to hold positions, and bottom-fishing sentiment had not cleared. This could prolong consolidation or trigger a secondary squeeze. The consensus among several analysts is that the current structure is better defined as an “oversold rebound” rather than a “trend reversal.” Multiple trading plans strictly set stop-losses below the lower Bollinger Band, exiting positions once broken. A market observation from Gate Square also characterizes the state as “neutral consolidation, accumulation zone,” with weak volume and no confirmed breakout yet.Gold has fallen to a one-year low; there are no safe-haven assets left in this world.
Last night's market shattered my understanding built over more than a decade.
The Middle East is still in turmoil, major US tech stocks are crashing collectively, and according to the old script, funds should be rushing to gold for safety, right? So what happened? COMEX gold futures fell below $3900, hitting the lowest in a year; silver is even worse, dropping below $50, nearly halving in value.
Why are safe-haven assets no longer safe? I read a report that analyzed this thoroughly: everyone has lost too much in stocks, leverage is about to blow up, so they are forced to sell the gold that is still making money to cover margin calls. When all assets are falling, liquidity squeezes turn gold into an ATM.
Yesterday, I saw a brother in the group say, "I don't dare trust anything now, I just want to hold cash." I think he’s right. At this stage, the best safe-haven assets are stablecoins and staying out of the market.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK My strongest heart is a bit weak now
Is this a bull trap?
The earnings report is so strong, why is it still plummeting 🤧
The market keeps crashing, can it hold on!
The better the performance, the more the market falls, indicating that the market trading is no longer just about current profits, but about expectations for future growth!
SanDisk's next quarter operating profit forecast is only 2 trillion yen, lower than the market expectation of 2.35 trillion yen.
More importantly, the price increase of NAND flash memory has significantly slowed down, with about a 70% increase last quarter, and the latest quarter's increase dropped to just over 20%, cooling down expectations for future price rises as well!$BTC votes in the midterm elections today, what is the outlook?
First, the judgment: The Republican election situation is passive, dragged down by the Trump factor, BTC is very likely to have another drop, with support levels first seen at 76000 and 75500.
Currently, the trend is unfavorable to the Republicans, the Democrats have a higher probability of retaking the House, while the Senate remains deadlocked. After the results are finalized, regulatory expectations may cool down, risk aversion sentiment will rise, and funds tend to withdraw from high-risk assets first.
ETF funds are also weak: In the past few trading days, BTC ETF single-day outflows reached up to $643 million, with about $800 million in cumulative outflows from crypto ETFs over the past 7 days, indicating institutions are reducing positions in the short term. Yesterday's outflow was close to zero, more like a wait-and-see after failing to push prices down, not a bullish counterattack.
The market is consolidating with low volume, rebounds lack volume, and the bearish structure remains intact. If it falls below 76000 tomorrow and fails to recover, the next support level to watch is 75500.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $UNI is very strong
1. Because Binance still hasn't opened withdrawals, it means the missing coins haven't been fully replenished yet. Once withdrawals open, the strong opportunity will disappear and it will follow the overall market.
2. UNI and ETH share the same wallet code. ETH withdrawals are already open, but UNI's are not, which supports my judgment.
3. Looking at the UNI spot order book, there really isn't enough buying power.
7.02 million tokens were stolen, worth over 50 million dollars. The 2% depth is only about 2 million. The average price hackers sold at was 5.45. If Binance quickly buys back from the secondary market, it will directly pull the price up sharply, so it mainly depends on OTC. The secondary market can only absorb a little, but OTC dealers mainly buy slowly from the secondary market.
So, you know, if the coin replenishment happens too fast and the price rises too high, I will reduce some positions to contribute a small amount to easing liquidity tension 😀At 11:30 PM, the US stock market was volatile at midday, BTC continued to grind at 77600, and risk aversion sentiment tightened again.
Just checked the latest on-chain tracking: a hacker incident triggered over $1.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations; although Binance resumed withdrawals and provided backstop coverage, net outflows have exceeded $3.6 billion; market makers' defensive order cancellations caused order book depth to plummet by over 50%, spot buy orders are severely fractured, and the price is firmly suppressed at 77600.
$BTC: 77600 repeatedly tugged back and forth, $3.6 billion outflows suppressing rebound
Previous reference price was 81500. After the crash, bulls are severely weakened, 78500 has completely turned into strong resistance. Order book support is extremely fragile; if the night session fails to reclaim 78200, beware of further probing down to the critical defense line at 75500 due to liquidity shortage.
$ETH: 2220 weak consolidation, huge stolen chips hanging overhead
Previous reference price was 2450. The attacker’s position liquidation pressure remains, and institutional funds are accelerating withdrawal. Currently retesting 2220 with tug-of-war; if the 2180 defense line breaks, a faster bottom test at 2100 is feared.
$SOL: lost the 100 mark, retreating to weak tug at 93
Previous reference price was 105. Dragged down by market deleveraging, it broke below the 100 integer mark. Order book depth sharply reduced, chips loosened obviously, and rebounds are prone to trigger secondary sell-offs.
Summary: Tens of billions in capital outflows severely damaged order book depth; BTC is stubbornly holding low, altcoins have even weaker support. Prices and funds are still searching for a bottom at low levels.
Until market depth is restored, the true stable bottom has yet to emerge.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 AMD Q3 revenue exceeds 13.1 billion, EPS exceeds 1.97 → numbers beat expectations
But the stock price may not rise, because the AI narrative depends on whether there are stronger signals for data center "doubling or more" by 2027
Risk points: PC/gaming dragging behind, MI450 mass production delayed to 2027 H1, HBM/TSMC N2 capacity bottleneck, gross margin falling below 56%
Positive points: Meta/Microsoft/OpenAI side Helios installation confirmed, EPYC Venice restocking, Q4 guidance close to 15 billion+I never quite understood: when an exchange runs into trouble, everyone's first reaction is to run. Then what? If you keep your money in your own wallet and lose the private key, no one compensates you; if you put it back, you're afraid it might happen again.
Binance's current account is: a net outflow of 4.72 billion USD, accounting for 3% of the platform's assets, mostly USDT. 95% of the tokens have been replenished, the remaining 5% went off-exchange. Losses are covered by SAFU.
To put it simply, 3% left, 97% of people didn't move. $BNB is still there, and the depth of $BTC hasn't collapsed. This looks more like a stress test, not a collapse.
My simple method: don't listen to talk, first check if withdrawals are working.Has $SNDK crashed? What happened?
SanDisk really scared me, dropping as low as 1070
Intel fell below 60
Woke up this morning feeling completely stunned
The performance was so good
Even if the future outlook is pessimistic, it shouldn't fall this much
I don't know where the bottom is
Added to my small position
Fortunately, I recovered some during the day, so far it has rebounded 4%
Bought too much earlier
No extra position left to add more
So controlling position size is very important
Brother Baba said SanDisk will see 2000
Looking at SanDisk's path so far, I have no confidence it will rebound to 2000 at all
If it can return to 1400, I think that would already be very good
One very important point, SanDisk's product prices are already very high
Gross margin has reached 85%
It's hard to maintain this situation for a long timeAt Hong Kong FinTech Week, Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng gave three figures: a cumulative net outflow of about $4.72 billion from customers, accounting for about 3% of platform assets, and 95% of affected tokens have been replenished. These three numbers together tell the same story—the scale of the run is much smaller than the asset buffer.
First, look at the outflow structure. Most of the $4.72 billion is $USDT, which aligns with the instinct during panic: first convert to stablecoins, then decide whether to leave. But converting to stablecoins does not mean exiting; many just shifted positions from altcoins to $BTC and $ETH.
Next, look at the replenishment mechanism. The remaining 5% was restored through over-the-counter (OTC) trading service providers, which itself is a signal: if relying solely on market orders, the 5% would push prices up and prolong the process; going OTC indicates the gap is controllable and they don’t want to leave traces on the market. Losses are borne by SAFU and company reserved funds, without affecting user balances, which is the most critical step in credit repair.
Judging from this, the short-term shock has mostly passed; the remaining 5% is tail risk, worth monitoring but not panicking over. What really matters is the net flow of $USDT two weeks later: if it flows back, it means the panic was emotional; if it continues to flow out, it means some are relocating long-term.
One question remains: if the run only withdrew 3% of assets at a time, why does the market price it at a 30% discount?#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% SanDisk's revenue and profit this quarter have outperformed market expectations across the board. The data center storage business is rapidly expanding, driven by AI computing power demand. At the same time, the company announced a 1-for-8 stock split plan and simultaneously increased its buyback program. Although the news seems densely positive, the stock price has sharply declined. The core reason is the market logic of storage cyclical stocks: "buy the expectation, sell the reality."
The stock split itself is a neutral event; it only lowers the stock price threshold, making it easier for retail investors to participate, and does not change the company's intrinsic value. It is not a catalyst for price increases. What truly suppresses the market is concern over the price increase slope: this rally mainly relies on NAND flash price hikes, but industry partner Kioxia has signaled a clear slowdown in the pace of flash price increases. This suggests that the strongest phase of the cycle has most likely passed. Even if performance continues to hit new highs, a marginal slowdown in growth will pressure valuations.
Additionally, SanDisk has seen a huge prior price increase, and bullish expectations are already fully priced in. Without stronger-than-expected guidance, concentrated profit-taking is easily triggered. It is also important to note that although the company’s guidance for the next quarter remains high, the market has begun to price in risks of peak prices and rising capital expenditures going forward. $BTC $ETH $ZEC What makes $ETH interesting is not just its market activity, but the ecosystem developing around it. Ethereum has become a major foundation for DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and decentralized applications. Its real strength lies in giving developers tools to build without depending entirely on traditional intermediaries. I believe Ethereum's long-term story deserves attention beyond daily price movements."$INIT Restart, $XLM Pending Vote: Don't Let 'Technical Narrative' Get Ahead of 'Usability'"
After frequent security incidents, I care more about whether the project team is busy with PR or busy fixing the issues. Today, looking at two chains heading in opposite directions: one just climbed out of an accident pit, the other is stepping onto the upgrade ladder.
On the INIT side, the chain was urgently halted on October 23 due to a MoveVM vulnerability. On November 2, it was officially announced that the mainnet and Rollup were relaunched, and asset support was restored. But note the wording—"gradual reopening": cross-chain bridges and exchange transfers are still being released in batches, and some cross-chain withdrawals have a 24-hour cooling period. The chain producing blocks is only the first step; whether cross-chain channels are smooth, DEX depth returns, and post-incident reports are transparent are the hard indicators of trust rebuilding. Don't translate "restart" directly as "all clear."
On the XLM side, Stellar's Bell protocol 30 is scheduled for testnet voting on November 3 and mainnet voting on the 23rd. The upgrade package includes a new contract address format, contract-level quantum-resistant signature verification, and millisecond-level ledger timing. But to pour cold water: quantum-resistant signatures currently apply only to contract verification, which does not mean the entire chain is immediately quantum-secure; millisecond timing is a ledger-level optimization and does not mean end-user experience suddenly becomes "instantaneous."
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 #Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？
I, Orange Brother, think Circle's revenue might be lower than market expectations, with EPS likely flat or slightly lower. I estimate revenue around $755 million to $785 million, and EPS about $0.32 to $0.38. Here's my analysis:
Many might see the growth in USDC on-chain transaction volume and directly conclude Circle's revenue will exceed expectations, but Circle's business model doesn't mean revenue grows proportionally with transaction volume. Circle's main revenue actually comes from interest generated by USDC reserve assets.
Last quarter, Circle's combined revenue and reserve income was about $701 million, with roughly 94% from reserve income; meanwhile, USDC circulation dropped from $77 billion in Q1 to $73.3 billion, indicating active transactions but no corresponding growth in funds held in Circle's reserve system.
Q2 on-chain transaction volume did increase 151% year-over-year, reaching $14.8 trillion, but this did not bring equivalent revenue growth; total Q2 revenue only grew 7% year-over-year. The reason is simple: many USDC transfers do not mean many new USDC were added to the market.
As long as average circulation doesn't significantly increase, reserve asset scale won't grow substantially, and Circle's interest income will be hard to rise quickly.
This is my personal analysis and not investment advice. #PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but stock price fell instead of rising
The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Overvaluation, the market demands "stunning" rather than "excellent"
Before the earnings release, Palantir's forward price-to-sales ratio was as high as about 50 times, and the trailing price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 140 times. At such an extremely high valuation anchor, "exceeding expectations" is no longer a catalyst for stock price increase but the minimum entry condition. Although Palantir performed well, it failed to deliver surprises sufficient to support a higher valuation, triggering some investors to take profits.
2. Significant slowdown in new contract total value (TCV) growth
Despite a 96% year-over-year revenue increase for the quarter, the new contract total value (TCV), which reflects potential future revenue, was only $2.918 billion, with year-over-year growth sharply dropping to 6%. Since revenue is recognized from signed contracts, the growth rate of signed contracts lags far behind revenue recognition growth, meaning the company is consuming backlog orders faster than replenishing new orders, causing investors to doubt whether the company can maintain its current high growth trajectory.
3. Contract structure changes raise sustainability concerns
This quarter, the company signed multiple eight-figure large contracts with shorter durations than usual. This means the current strong commercial revenue has not yet been tested through a full contract cycle, and its long-term sustainability remains uncertain.
4. Impact of macro sector sentiment
Recently, the entire tech and AI sectors have been under continuous pressure, with the market becoming increasingly cautious about the sustainability of high capital expenditures on AI infrastructure and the return on investment.🔷 AI Stock Sell-Off: KOSPI −4.1%, $BTC <$77K
Asia under pressure due to AI fears: KOSPI down to −4.1%, Taiwan down to −3.3%. On October 30, the US semiconductor index lost 7.2%.
BTC correlation with Nasdaq 100 over 30 days is 0.68. Red flag: US elections ahead on November 3.
DYOR.
Are you cutting risk or holding through? 👇Watching those exaggerated large orders on the order book, don't rush to call the bottom yet. The placed orders are a show for you; the real speed is in the order cancellations by the main players. Just scanned through the order book, the pattern is the same old story.
$BTC buy-sell ratio near the current price is 46:54, with selling pressure slightly dominant. There are tens of millions worth of buy orders stacked below 76000, which looks like a solid bottom but is more like a "stay put, don't run" billboard; the real selling pressure is above 77000, so think twice before chasing longs as they might cancel orders and push the price down.
$ETH currently at 2258, order ratio 50:50, bulls and bears face to face. Above 2310 there's a sell wall of over 8 million, ridiculously thick; chasing highs means guarding resistance for the main players. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal before volume breaks through the sell wall.
$SOL currently at 92.28, after breaking below 100, buying pressure actually dominates, order ratio 63:37, with over 5 million buy orders near 89, indicating some are willing to buy, but the 93-95 range is densely packed with trapped positions, so don't get overexcited bottom fishing.
My view: The thicker the floor orders, the more likely it's psychological warfare where they don't really want to spend money to push the price up. What do you think about that tens of millions buy order pile at 76000—is it support or a bull trap? Do you have any positions now? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 BITCOIN IS HOLDING $77K — BUT MARKET FEAR IS RISING FAST!
This is becoming more than just a Bitcoin price correction. The pressure is building across global markets. 👀
🌍 Oil has surged above $98 amid Iran tensions and Election Day uncertainty.
Meanwhile, crypto is facing fresh warning signs:
🔻 Nearly $400M in spot BTC ETF outflows. 🔻 Almost $5B reportedly withdrawn from Binance following the record hack.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit #ExtremeFear
#DailyOrbit The alarm hasn't sounded, but smoke is already swirling on the ceiling; this building is on the verge of a flashover.
$BTC is currently stuck at 77294.9, with the upper Bollinger band at 77493 acting as the load-bearing wall glowing red from the fire. A group of amateur retail investors are still rushing to the top floor without any smoke masks, completely unaware of the fire spread index beneath their feet. The RSI is stuck at 51.9, seemingly indicating good air circulation, but in reality, the fire scene has entered the most dangerous smoldering phase.
Hardcore data from the mining area shows that the firewall built by the network's total computing power and electricity costs has long been welded shut at the base. This position now belongs to a typical strong convection suspended zone, with the upper band under pressure and heat waves backflowing. Blindly setting up cloud ladders to chase longs at this point is effectively cutting off the entire rescue team's retreat.
The first iron rule of firefighting rescue: never advance one step deeper into the fire source without seeing an escape route.
Since the upward push to the ceiling is blocked, the physical law of return airflow pressing down is inevitable. The middle band at 76985 is the first smoke curtain barrier, and the lower band at 76477 is the safe island for setting up water cannon positions. Without effective fire suppressant injection, I will only execute tactics of high-position resistance and guarding the smoke exhaust port.
- Target: $BTC 🔴
- Entry: 77250 - 77450
- TP1: 76980
- TP2: 76500
- SL: 77750
The safety rope is only set to 77750; once the structure completely collapses triggering a backdraft, immediately cut the rope and evacuate, leaving even the hoses behind. 🧑🚒
#CoinMoveAlert#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle's profit core relies on USDC's reserve U.S. Treasury interest income. This earnings report focuses on the market's key battle over circulation scale expansion and whether it can hedge against the yield decline caused by interest rate cuts. Leveraging compliance advantages and the CCTP cross-chain protocol, USDC continues to attract institutional funds. The implementation of MiCA also opens up overseas increments. If circulation volume rises and self-custody proportion increases, channel distribution costs will be optimized, and profit elasticity is expected to be released.
Risks are also prominent. The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle will suppress reserve income. Even if issuance volume rises, interest increments are easily eroded by interest rates. Meanwhile, USDT continues to seize market share. Under industry competition, channel incentive costs remain high. Regulatory and reserve audit news can also easily trigger fund redemptions, dragging down performance.
The earnings report focuses on USDC circulation volume, reserve yield, distribution costs, and EBITDA. On-chain transaction volume booming does not equal profit growth. If circulating supply growth is weak, performance expectations are easily disappointed. In the short term, stock prices are sensitive to core data, and market fluctuations will be amplified. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
I read Binance's preliminary report twice. 98% of affected assets have been replenished, compensation funds are prepared to exceed 100%, and 2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted. The numbers look good.
The market is not convinced. BNB is at 698.9, it hasn't even stayed above 700 today, with a 24-hour low of 691.52.
I think the two sentences to pay more attention to are: the attacker used fake job interviews to trick employees into granting access; the frozen 2.85 billion still needs to be revalued at market price. The first sentence indicates the defense line is on personnel, the second means the number will fluctuate.
Contract positions are 50.79 million, earlier it was 54.05 million. The fee rate is 0.0000694, close to zero.
No one is panicking, and no one is buying the dip.
Replenishment is a matter of the ledger, trust is another ledger. This ledger has no progress bar.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
The 23:01 JOLTs came out at 7.523 million, expected 7.1 million. 330,000 more jobs than expected, USD/JPY immediately broke 158.5.
By the old logic, this is bad news—jobs are still being sought, so no rate cuts expected. BTC is now around 77,300, down only 0.6% in 24 hours, the daily low is still the 76,386 from the afternoon.
At 21:00, the 1-hour candle saw 597,000 contracts traded, touched 77,856 then was pushed back. Afterwards 520,000, 137,000, each candle less than the last, price moving sideways.
Open interest shrank from 2.629 billion this morning to 2.576 billion, funding rate still hanging at +0.01%. Leverage retreated, bulls haven't admitted defeat.
Bad data can't trigger volume, I interpret this as those holding inventory have already left. But no new entrants either.
I’m not taking sides in this kind of market, waiting for it to reveal itself.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ History shows BTC has always pumped in the 12 months following the last 3 elections. 2014: +24.5% 2018: +44.9% 2022: +92.3% And this election matters a lot for crypto. The CLARITY Act is already stalled in the Senate, and if Democrats win, the chances of approval would go down even more. Not only that, but a Democrat win could even push Trump to launch fresh attacks on Iran, which will result in high oil prices and inflation. But this will all concern the markets in the short term. $BNB Once