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Individual stock perpetual contracts were just approved, but industry organizations have already filed lawsuits
After the CFTC announced that individual stock perpetual futures can be traded on qualified markets, institutions such as Capital Markets Alliance filed lawsuits attempting to block the related authorization. Participants include industry forces supported by Cboe and Citadel Securities.
The controversy centers on whether these contracts should be regarded as security futures or possibly fall under the regulatory scope of other securities derivatives. The interpretation of regulatory authority may determine whether the product can expand smoothly in the future.
This reminds me that there is still a gap between policy announcements and legal implementation. Traders should not only focus on the positive statements from regulators but also pay attention to court procedures and subsequent rules.
The $BTC market has also experienced regulatory disputes in the past. The long-term direction may be compliance, but the short term will still be affected by lawsuits, approvals, and product restrictions.
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress
Brothers, the results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both houses of Congress. Old Mo straight up says: this is definitely a midterm bearish signal for the crypto space.
Why? The Senate Banking Committee is very likely to be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher.
So why did Bitcoin violently surge to 81,199? This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Before the election, everyone feared a Democratic win and forcibly pushed the price down to 75,690. Now that the results are out and the bearish news is fully priced in, shorts are forced to cover, and combined with a short squeeze in the options market, it triggered a strong bullish candle.
But remember, after the emotional venting, we still have to face reality. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Previously, U.S. institutions wanting to trade perpetual contracts basically had to go through overseas channels. Now Coinbase Prime has opened the door.
According to PANews, Coinbase Prime is opening regulated global options and perpetual contract trading to institutional clients in the U.S. and other eligible regions. U.S. and global traders share the same liquidity pool, with market-making liquidity provided by Deribit. The initial coverage includes more than 20 assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, AVAX, and HYPE. Collateral support includes BTC, ETH, and USDC, with plans to expand further.
Observation 1: The inclusion of mainstream coins and high-volatility assets like HYPE in the initial list usually means deeper contract liquidity and incremental capital entering the institutional channel. Observation 2: The risk lies in whether U.S. institutions will actually deposit funds and generate trading volume, and that after the launch of perpetual contracts, the leverage crowding on the same batch of assets will increase, leading to more severe liquidations during sharp rises and falls.
Are you more focused on the mainstays like BTC and ETH in the initial list, or on more elastic assets like HYPE, AVAX, and XRP? The US stock market performed quite well, with AMD playing a major role.
AMD's Q3 data center revenue reached 8.546 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. The Q4 guidance of 17 billion exceeded expectations, causing after-hours trading to surge over 9%. Nvidia followed with a 2.29% increase, reclaiming the global No.1 market cap spot from Apple. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, CoreWeave rose over 7%, and Oracle gained nearly 6%. But honestly, half of this rebound is just a recovery from the heavy October sell-off; the semiconductor index dropped 15% that month, so it's not entirely due to a sudden improvement in fundamentals. AMD's free cash flow actually looks poor, down 64% year-over-year, with inventory piling up nearly 3 billion. The market is currently choosing to focus on revenue guidance first.$BTC hovers around seventy-seven thousand dollars, $ETH stands above two thousand three hundred dollars, and $SOL is stuck at the ninety-three dollar mark — all three slightly rose today, and voices shouting "the reversal is here" have started to emerge again. But breaking down this movement, it looks more like a technical correction after overselling rather than a trend reignition 🔥 First, look at the strongest evidence: the trading volume throughout the cycle has almost dried up. What does this mean? It means this rally is not driven by new money entering the market, but by short covering combined with a very thin layer of buying, which "lifted" the price. Volume is the fuel of the market; the fuel wasn't added, yet the vehicle moved, which itself is a warning sign. The second signal is hidden in the liquidation data. Most of the recent hours' liquidations were shorts; in other words, the market is clearing out those who chased shorts at the lowest point. A typical feature of this "short squeeze" rebound is that it comes fast but lacks sustainability because its driving force is stop-losses, not consensus. The third and most critical signal is the daily-level structure. None of the repair points have been properly fixed. Price can deceive, volume can deceive, but structure will not. Until the daily framework gives a clear reversal signal, any rebound can only be defined as a rebound. So the current position is awkward: chasing longs means catching a rebound's flying knife; shorting at the top means running into the barrel of a short squeeze. What’s truly worth doing is waiting for the repair to be in place, waiting for volume and structure to simultaneously give clear signals, then placing bets. Impatience is never a reason to enter; patience is the scarcest position at this stage. OneNasdaq has approved the listing registration of Canary Staked INJ ETF, ticker INJC.
According to PANews, Nasdaq has approved the Form 8-A12B listing registration for Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) under Canary Capital. The fund plans to stake at least 90% of INJ on the network, with BitGo as the custodian. It still requires the S-1 registration statement to become effective before it can be publicly traded. This is Injective's first staking ETF to receive a listing admission.
Opinion: If the compliance channel opens, staking operations may continuously lock up part of the circulating supply, providing medium-term buying support for INJ; however, short-term movements are more driven by sentiment catalysts, and real incremental funds will wait until the product officially launches.
Scenario 1: S-1 becomes effective and fundraising begins, with focus on whether the first-day scale and staking ratio can remain stable above 90%. Scenario 2: Listing is delayed or fundraising falls short of expectations, in which case the benefits of this small-cap ETF are easily quickly given back.
Are you more concerned about the timing of the S-1 effectiveness or the scale of the first-day fundraising? $RIOT
Miners are the leverage of BTC, but this statement is only half true tonight.
After RIOT's earnings report, it rose 16.6%, HUT fell 21%, and MARA only dropped 1.9%. BTC itself only rose 3.5% in 24 hours. The same sector, three different directions.
RIOT's rise is not from mining. It signed a 15-year lease with an unnamed cutting-edge AI lab for the Corsicana campus' 910MW, with an initial contract of $28 billion, two renewals fully exercised totaling $54 billion, and long-term data center contract revenue reported at $38 billion.
The cost is written in the earnings report: in the first nine months of this year, it sold 20,264 BTC, about $1.5 billion; in Q3 alone, it sold 10,599 BTC, 6.5 times the 1,637 BTC mined in the same period, with holdings dropping from 11,380 BTC to 2,418 BTC.
HUT's revenue declined and was pushed down 20% pre-market. MARA has no story, just follows BTC's movement. On OKX, RIOT perpetual positions are only $110,000, the 16% rise is thinly traded and ridiculous, don't use it as a sentiment indicator.
Now the pricing for miners is based on electricity and land, not computing power. Last year I was still calculating their shutdown price, but that calculation is now completely off.
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress $ZEC
1352, the high point ZEC touched last night at 11 PM. Now at 1286, a 4.8% pullback in four hours, but still showing +6.3% over 24 hours.
The breaking news is still reporting that the NU7 upgrade activation is imminent, and ZEC reached 1313. 1313 was the price around 10 o'clock; those who chased in then are now underwater.
I'm watching open interest and volume. At 10 PM, open interest was $189 million, now $177.9 million, down by $11.5 million. One-hour trading volume shrank from 16.83 million contracts to 1.26 million contracts, down to one-thirteenth. The spike up is even stranger: price pushed higher, but open interest dropped by 3.49%.
The reduction in open interest during the spike strongly suggests short covering, not new longs taking over. The funding rate confirms this — it rose over six basis points, the upgrade is imminent, yet the perpetual funding rate is stuck at the 0.01% baseline, not a penny premium.
If someone were rushing to front-run NU7, the funding rate wouldn't be this quiet. I won't chase this structure; I'll wait for the upgrade to land and the corresponding K-line to appear before making a move.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Sony Earnings Report Expectations: How Did the Gaming and Music Sectors Perform?
🚨 Two Bitcoin mining companies sold thousands of bitcoins to fund artificial intelligence projects
🔴 Riot (RIOT) sold 20,264 bitcoins this year to fund an AI data center and currently holds 2,418 bitcoins. HUT (HUT)$BTC 👀 复盘美国中期选举后的$BTC走势，2018与2022确实都出现过明显回撤，但把这两次直接套到今天，并不严谨。
关键差异在价格位置：前两次回撤启动前，BTC已在一年低点附近，情绪脆弱、缓冲不足；眼下BTC较年内低点高出约33%，市场成本、杠杆和持仓结构都不同。
这并不意味着风险消失，而是说“选举后必跌”并非固定剧本。历史能提供风险提示，却不能替代对当下流动性、资金面和情绪的判断。
对$BTC 而言，更值得关注的是关键支撑是否失守、成交量能否配合，而不是只盯着年份做类比。历史可复盘，交易要就事论事。
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Strategy上周财库操作现分歧信号
10月26日至11月1日，Strategy通过普通股增发筹集资金购入811枚BTC，耗资约6550万美元，均价80846美元，持仓总量升至849327枚。
但同一周，公司却动用约2.082亿美元现金回购STRC优先股，金额达到购币支出的三倍有余，美元现金储备从约2.424亿骤降至约1.327亿。
机构资金面同样偏弱。美现货BTC ETF于11月3日净流出约2740万美元，连续三日撤资，不过较11月2日的约3.986亿美元明显收窄，流出动能有所减弱。
个人判断：Strategy本周动作更偏向优化优先股负债端，而非单纯加码多头叙事，短线不宜将其视为趋势做多依据。
盘面上，BTC亚洲早盘自78000附近承压回落，现交投于77000一线，24小时高低区间约78049/76360，资金费率约0.01%。
短线关注76800支撑，早盘多次测试该位，若有效跌破则考虑减仓；上方77500为首道压力，站稳后方可看向78000。止损置于76500下方，目标暂看78000，仓位维持轻仓。WLD、TAO、RENDER今天全部下跌约4%—5%，过去7天的跌幅也都超过12%。AI板块没有出现明显的资金回流，前期跌幅越深的方向，反而越难形成有效反弹。
$WLD 目前约0.37美元，过去7天下跌超过14%。0.36—0.366美元是第一支撑，上方0.385—0.39美元存在压力。重新站稳0.40美元才能改善结构，跌破0.36美元则要防继续测试0.34美元。
$TAO 目前约220美元，过去7天下跌约12.4%。218—220美元先看承接，上方228—232美元存在压力。突破235美元才能扩大修复，失守218美元则要防继续测试210美元。TAO近期相对抗跌，但短期依然偏弱。
$RENDER 目前约1.48美元，过去7天下跌约13.5%。1.46—1.48美元是第一支撑，上方1.54—1.57美元存在压力。重新站稳1.60美元才能改善结构，跌破1.45美元则要防继续下探。RENDER尚未出现明显止跌信号。ETF流出、机构减速，唱衰派还没喊够，可BTC已重新站回8万了！（多军永不言败
10月30日和11月2日，美国现货BTC ETF累计净流出约10.42亿美元，企业财库增持也在放缓。
随后虽然ETF流出有所收窄，但市场仍认为买盘不足，反弹缺乏持续资金支撑。
可
到了11月4日至5日，行情却给出了另一种答案。美国中期选举结果逐渐明朗，政治不确定性消退，加密市场开始修复。
尤其今天BTC重新站上8万美元，ETH从2200多美元反弹至2400美元上方，表现尤其突出。
反观SOL，涨幅明显落后（这次多少有点跟不上队伍了 再骂它一次
BTC：80,396美元，+3.52%
ETH：2,431美元，+5.77%
SOL：96.94美元，+3.55%
现在的割裂感越来越明显：ETF资金流出，价格却在修复；
BTC站稳8万，
ETH领涨，
SOL相对滞后
唱衰的声音或许可以先消停一会儿了。资金流出不代表市场只能下跌，
接下来就看这轮修复能不能持续
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $APR Regarding this coin, I have been continuously following it for nearly half a year. Recently, on-chain transaction volume showed that the whale was accumulating for two days with increased volume. After a recent spike and pullback, the current price is at the whale's previous accumulation cost zone. I believe going long here offers a much better risk-reward ratio than going short, so it's worth taking a chance.This building has no load-bearing walls, yet it plans to add three more floors. $DOGE has surged 5.43% in 24 hours. From a structural review perspective, this looks more like a facade renovation rather than a main structure elevation.
First, let's look at the constraints of the enclosure structure. Within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price has already reached 72% of the band range, with only 1.0% of clearance left before hitting the upper band, while downward there is still a 2.6% retracement buffer. The mid-term is even more extreme. The price stands at 92% of the band range, only 0.7% from the upper band, but 8.4% away from the lower band. This is equivalent to pushing the building's footprint to the cantilever limit, then fully loading the eaves with materials. The floor height seems sufficient, but the load path is missing.
Next, look at the stress indicators. The one-hour RSI has crossed the critical line of 64, the short-term value is 67.9, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3. The two curves differ by nearly 18 points. This is a typical "upper structure is moving, foundation is not." The short-term momentum is supported by scaffolding, but the long-term foundation has not caught up at all. Such a node on the blueprint requires a re-calculation of the load transfer path.
So my judgment is clear: this is high-altitude work, not foundation construction. The signal direction given is downward correction, and I will not chase longs at the cantilever end; I will wait for the price to be pushed to a temporary support level before placing short orders.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.0724 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 0.0666 (-4.9%)
Take Profit 2: 0.0646 (-7.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.0800 (current price +14.3%)
Take Profit 1 is near the short-term lower band. That is the first place with real concrete. Take Profit 2 reaches the mid-term 8.4% buffer zone. The stop loss is set at a 14.3% height because although this building has no load-bearing walls, the short-term wind load can still push the price through the 1% upper band margin. The budget must be sufficient; the safety factor must never be compressed to one.
Whether a project is worth holding long-term is never judged by how lively the renderings are. It is judged by how many retracements it can withstand without collapsing.Trump said in one sentence, "We have done our best," basically declaring the overall situation settled.
What does it mean? The control of Congress is lost, and the previously hyped crypto-friendly bills and crypto capital plans are directly blocked and hard to advance.
The Democrats took both the House and Senate, a rare big win in forty years, but the biggest risk for the crypto circle is not the bills being stuck. The biggest fear is sudden geopolitical news after election losses. Once news of Middle East military action breaks out, it will cause a double-sided spike, killing both bulls and bears, and no one can escape.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations in advance, with Bitcoin showing a daily bearish pattern, ETFs continuously seeing outflows, and $ETH ETFs bleeding longer, making its rebound inherently weaker than $BTC. Those who have recently doubled their gains are advised to take profits first and not chase the tail-end rally.
All current market moves are expectation games; only after the election is fully settled will a true trend emerge.
Going forward, focus on $SPCX as it is the leading signal of this round of risk asset sentiment. If you have no direction, visit the homepage study group for operational ideas.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The most fragile link last night was actually the close position button I didn’t press in time after drinking too much. Have you ever had that moment of "I wanted to run, but fate took the position for me"? Waking up to see the position still there, the first reaction isn’t relief, but a tight feeling in the chest. BTC opened at 79432.1, current price 76609.8, unrealized loss 300.27U, ROI -355.29%. With 100x leverage, every small bullish candle feels like testing my margin bottom line; SOL slid from 95.79 to 91.37, unrealized loss 63.33U, ROI -92.28%. In a weak consolidation, the most tormenting thing isn’t the drop, but the repeated hope given and then taken away; only ETH moved from 2243.35 to 2253.65, unrealized profit 6.1U, ROI +9.18%, small like a candy, but the only position that didn’t make me frown. What’s really worth discussing here isn’t the joke about "drinking causing trouble," but that high leverage compresses risk management’s margin for error to almost zero. 100x means a 1% adverse price move nearly wipes out the principal. The so-called "margin ratio still safe" is just temporary breathing room, not a safety net. More hidden is the psychological aspect: when three positions are open simultaneously, people automatically enter a "wait for rebound before exiting" mode, alternating between FOMO and hesitation, narrative fatigue follows, and in the end, it’s not the market that defeats you, but your own monitoring rhythm that wears you down. The bullish path isn’t impossible either: if BTC holds the current range, and ETH shows relative resistance to the drop... 事件：币安：98%被盗资产已完成回填，储备金证明快照扩至44种代币 这件事。同类情况大多数时候改不了趋势，能改趋势的是钱的方向。 当下的盘面坐标： · BTC 现价 80,243.10，24 小时 +3.45% · ETH 现价 2,418.10，24 小时 +5.53% · 现货 USDT 对里 206 个上涨 / 94 个下跌（成交额 ≥ 10 万美元口径） 可以顺着这三点往下想： 1）接下来的 24 小时里量能是放大还是缩小，是判断它有没有被市场接受的最快指标； 2）同类标的有没有跟涨或跟跌，联动说明资金在按板块给定价； 3）资金费率有没有转向，杠杆情绪常常比现货价格更早松口。 这可能和你的直觉相反，说说你的看法？ 评论区留个判断，明天回来对一对谁看对了。$SNDK
Storage stocks are under pressure again, and strong AI demand has not been able to stop the sell-off.
Election impacts and concerns over storage prices have dragged down SanDisk and its peers, despite strong AI data center demand and SanDisk's record revenue, the sell-off continues.
I am cautious: negative factors and weak market sentiment coincide, with 1H and 4H both below EMA20, EMA20 below EMA50, and RSI14 at 34.8 and 35.0 respectively; I am closely watching the 1,016.3 support level.
OKX data: SNDK 1,030.90 USDT, 24h -7.77%, volume 1.75B USDT.
Do you think AI demand can offset the pressure on storage prices?
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#DemocratsWinCongress $STX Bullish news: BitGo opens Bitcoin staking, requiring 5% STX per transaction, STX rises 9.8% in one day
STX is currently priced at $0.3558, up 9.75% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.3185 to 0.3657, with a trading volume of about $6 million
On November 3, BitGo announced opening Bitcoin staking based on Stacks to institutional clients, with BTC kept in BitGo's qualified custody, pairing 5% STX based on the staked BTC value, locked for about 6 months
This effectively opens an institutional demand channel for STX; the more BTC staked, the more STX must be locked, reducing the circulating supply
The first two staking rounds have attracted about 735 BTC; the next round is expected to open around November 10, at which time the increased scale will directly reflect STX's locked demand.This ruling reads like saying: "Don't rush, I'm not stopping it yet." "But you make a good point, you might win."
The U.S. judge rejected the injunction to pause the CFTC's approval of individual stock perpetuals, with a simple reason: the plaintiff didn't prove that there would be no time to remedy. Then the judge admitted that the plaintiff's claim that the CFTC has no authority to approve such products might succeed.
The product moves forward, but its classification is not yet determined. Those trading $BTC $ETH perpetuals are temporarily unaffected, but if they are truly classified as securities swaps, the rules will need to be rewritten. The CFTC will respond on November 6, and the plaintiff will reply on November 10.ETH is stuck below the 2,309 cost line, with US funds selling.
The current price is around 2,280, and it can't break above 2,309 on the rebound. This level represents the average on-chain holding cost; failing to surpass it indicates that selling pressure is stronger than buying pressure. Coinbase premium index is at -0.161, with selling pressure mainly from US investors. ETF net outflows have continued for six consecutive days, with a record 1.61 billion in October alone.This time, the U.S. court did not block the approval of single-stock perpetual contracts, but it conveniently put the question of "who should regulate this" on the table.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied a motion for a temporary restraining order filed by the Capital Markets Alliance Association, which sought to halt the CFTC's approval of single-stock perpetuals. The court disagreed, reasoning that the plaintiff failed to demonstrate that without immediate relief, its members would suffer imminent and irreparable harm. The threshold was originally "too late," and the approval process is still ongoing.
However, the judge offered some consolation to the plaintiff in the ruling: the plaintiff's claim that "the CFTC lacks authority to approve these products as securities futures" may succeed, as these contracts better fit the SEC-regulated swap definition. This statement is weightier than the denial — the products currently approved might be reclassified in the future.
The timeline became the most concrete element. The CFTC must respond by November 6, and the plaintiff must reply by November 10. Two windows, two points to watch.
For those dealing with perpetuals, the short term means approval continues, the medium term means jurisdiction remains undecided. Mainstream perpetuals of $BTC and $ETH are not directly constrained, but if single-stock perpetuals are classified as securities swaps, the compliance cost model for perpetuals will need to be recalculated, and offshore venues will be affected as well.
That phrase "may succeed" is actually telling the plaintiff: no need to rush for an emergency injunction; going through normal litigation can also overturn the approval. The battle line is extended, not ended.The more sluggish the Bitcoin market is, the more I focus on this brewing on-chain golden cross!
This observation comes from brother wander! This chart is worth studying repeatedly.
As of November 2, $BTC is about 76.7K, the real market average price TMMP is about 77.65K, the short-term holder cost STH-RP is about 75.88K, and the two lines differ by only about $1,800! Looking back carefully at the history of 2016, 2019, and 2023, after STH-RP crossed above TMMP again, the market gradually entered a new recovery phase. What is truly worth paying attention to behind this is the readjustment of the short-term holding cost structure and the overall active market cost.
Of course, the golden cross has not yet formed, and BTC has not yet firmly stood above TMMP. Before the golden cross in 2023, there was also a long period of repeated bottoming. I have always insisted that BTC has exited the bear market and entered the early stage of a bull market, but the early bull market is never smooth sailing; it gradually completes structural repair through oscillations, shakeouts, and chip turnovers. Next, the key is to observe whether STH-RP can continue to rise and complete the golden cross, and whether the price can effectively recover around 77.65K.
The more pessimistic the market sentiment, the more we need to calmly observe those on-chain structures that are quietly changing! The bull market will not end because of a few pessimistic remarks, nor will it immediately take off because of a single golden cross.
True trend changes often happen when most people are still doubting!After the first three U.S. midterm elections,
$BTC actually wasn’t very “friendly”:
2014: It rose for about 9 days, peaking over 40%, then steadily declined;
2018: It only held up for one day, then the maximum drawdown was nearly 50%;
2022: It hit the FTX crash and continued to fall after the election.
This election day, BTC rose from 76,000 to around 78,600, more like a short squeeze first— or is it the start of a new rally?
In the short term, the chance of a short squeeze is indeed high. Because it fell after the previous three elections, many have gotten used to shorting; when shorts get crowded, it’s actually harder to push down, so if it’s really going to fall, it has to first rally to clear out the shorts. "Gradual decline wears you down, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal"
Mainstream coins continued to weaken this morning, with BTC at $76,983, ETH at $2,266, SOL around $92, and OKB at $107.14. The drop isn't large, but the rebound is slow to come; this kind of slow, simmering decline is more patience-testing than a sharp fall.
The core issue isn't lack of funds, but that buyers are unwilling to keep attacking. Glassnode shows BTC spot still has support, but contract leverage pressure hasn't fully eased; combined with midterm elections, employment data, and macro policy expectations, funds naturally remain cautious. No positive news doesn't mean prices will hold steady; with buyers absent, the price base may continue to slowly shift downward.
How long will the adjustment last? Don't guess the days, watch three signals: whether volume can expand, whether capital flow can turn positive, and whether sentiment can recover together. Without resonance among these three, small bullish candles look more like repair than reversal. Currently, time is being exchanged for space—chase fewer small rebounds and wait more for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Posting as evidence! This time it's just short covering! This week we'll see BTC starting with 7 again!
$BTC
Short-term sharp pull-up of 4%, jumping directly from 78,300 to the 80,000 mark;
$ETH
Even more elastic, rising from 2226 all the way to 2450, an increase of nearly 7%.
There are two main drivers behind this rally:
First, the US midterm elections have settled, with the Democrats taking both chambers, removing the uncertainty hanging over the market. The Nasdaq opened up about 2%, risk asset sentiment warmed up, and funds flowed back into the crypto market accordingly.
Second, after the price broke through around 80,000, a large number of short positions were liquidated, accelerating the short squeeze rally and pushing the gains higher.
But one key point must be clear: spot ETFs have still seen net outflows for three consecutive days as of November 3, totaling about 1.16 billion outflows.
This means this round of rally is not driven by sustained long-term spot capital inflows; the core incremental capital from ETFs has not arrived.
Essentially, this is a concentrated release of suppressed short-term sentiment, a pulse rally caused by short stop-losses.
It looks strong with bullish candles now, but the sustainability is questionable. Don’t chase it as if a new bull trend has started. The characteristic of a short squeeze rally is that it comes fast, and once the stop-loss orders are digested, it can quickly fizzle out and fall back.
⚠️ Personal market record only, not trading advice Index kicks out hoarding stocks, is it the stocks or the coins that get hit?
MSCI will announce the final list affected by the "Non-Operating Company" rule on November 11. Strategy, Metaplanet, and others previously appeared as potential removal candidates; the rule focuses on the proportion of operating assets and financial screening, not specifically targeting Bitcoin. If removal occurs, it will take effect after the close on November 30.
Passive funds sell stocks, not BTC spot — the pressure is more likely to hit financing/fundraising channels, which does not mean the company is forced to sell coins. An undecided list ≠ already out; kicked out of the index ≠ crashing the coin.
Are you more focused on the November 11 list, or on tomorrow's non-farm payroll?
(Media restates MSCI rules and candidate list, confidence medium)
$BTCOrder Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$HUMA cost differences mainly appear in large buy orders. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.25%/0.21%, and for 100,000 scale is 2.74%/1.71%. The asymmetry is an execution issue, not a price movement signal.
$AKE after amplifying orders, slippage on both entry and exit sides increases significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.32%/0.36%, and for 100,000 scale is 1.60%/1.36%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall shallow depth.
$CAP large buy and sell costs rise simultaneously. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy/sell rises from 0.62%/0.62% to 0.68%/0.69%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are increasing.【BTC Short Position Review: This Time the Rebound Really Hurt!📉】
Totally lost! Public positions were reduced in time and stop-losses set to exit, but my own short positions weren't handled promptly.
Reviewing this BTC $BTC rebound, there are three main reasons:
1️⃣ Election sentiment recovery: Political uncertainty faded, and oversold BTC saw a rebound.
2️⃣ Concentrated short liquidations: A large number of short positions were forcibly closed, further pushing the price up.
3️⃣ Macro environment support: US Treasury yields fell, ETF funds flowed back temporarily, providing momentum for the rebound.
However, there are concerns with this rise: Derivatives buying is strong, but whether active spot demand keeps up remains to be seen.
Next, focus on the resistance zone between $81,300–$81,755.
The biggest lesson this time: Directional judgment is only part of trading; stop-loss and position management are equally important.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #OKXOrbitAfter dropping to around $75.7K, $BTC has climbed back near $80.4K. That’s a decent recovery, but the next move matters more. Personally, I’m watching the $80K–$80.5K zone closely. Holding above it could improve sentiment, while another rejection may bring selling pressure back. One thing I’ve learned: a green candle can bring hope, but confirmation matters more than excitement. Do you think BTC has found its bottom, or is another retest still possible? #$BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #EarningsWaHere are 8 versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? ✨ In the short term, there will be pressure and volatility, and risks from tightening regulatory policies; the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
>
> ✨ Mid-to-long-term strategy
> After this uncertainty settles, the long-term development logic of AI will remain unchanged, and ultimately the market trend will still return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? Short term will have pressure and volatility, also facing risks of regulatory tightening, the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations. Mid-to-long-term strategy: after this uncertainty settles, AI's long-term development logic will not change, and the market trend will ultimately return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 3 - Trader's Version*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point?
> Short term: pressure + volatility, regulatory tightening risk, market sharp fluctuations
> Mid-to-long-term strategy: wait for uncertainty to settle, AI's long-term logic unchanged, ultimately returns to earnings and profit growth
*Version 4 - Professional Version*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? In the short term, there will be pressure and volatility, and risks from tightening regulatory policies; the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
>
> Mid-to-long-term strategy: after this uncertainty settles, AI's long-term development logic will remain unchanged, and ultimately the market trend will still return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 5 - Colloquial Version*
> The Democratic Party won big, and the US stock market... 🚨 $TRUMP continues to weaken, getting closer to its historical low!
After news of the Republican election loss spread, TRUMP once dropped to around $1.48, with political sentiment and market selling pressure both impacting the price performance.
What makes this token special is that its market narrative is highly tied to Trump's personal influence. As market sentiment cools, investor confidence is also shaken.
Currently, the key focus is on the historical low near $1.30. If this support breaks, the price may continue to seek lower support; a rebound would need to watch the resistance in the $1.55–$1.60 range.
The biggest risk for sentiment tokens is the sustained selling pressure after the narrative fades. Do not blindly bottom-fish, and do not ignore risk management.
#TRUMP #Crypto #Bitcoin #OKXOrbit
The above is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Big Brother Maji is really rich! It feels like no matter how much he loses on these bullets, he just can't run out of them. I just took a look at his position, and he's nearly at 17 million dollars again. 😳
Let's check out his latest holdings:
👉ETH long position (25X full margin)
Opening price: 2362.72
Position: 6960 units (margin 677,600 U)
Unrealized profit: +494,700 U
A few days ago, Big Brother Maji was still adjusting his position with losses, but somehow he managed to bring in a large amount of margin again, and now he's made nearly 500,000 dollars in profit. This blood recovery is really fierce.
But the current market is a bit tough. The election is settled, and funds are watching from the sidelines. BTC is stuck around 80,000, neither up nor down, and ETH softened after reaching 2450. The ETF is still running away, relying entirely on whales to support the bottom. Sideways trading with low volume is the easiest to get sudden spikes and dips. Let's see if Big Brother can hold steady, so he doesn't lose all the profits in a big pullback again. 🤣
$BTC $HYPE $ETH RVN Birth: "The Last True Son of Satoshi Nakamoto's Spirit"
2017 was a year of frenzy in the crypto market, with countless projects rapidly launching through ICO fundraising, pre-mined tokens, and venture capital manipulation, deviating from Bitcoin's original spirit of fairness, openness, and decentralization. It was in this environment that Ravencoin (RVN) was born, carrying the essence of Bitcoin's native spirit, regarded by part of the community as a representative PoW public chain steadfastly adhering to Satoshi Nakamoto's original path.
The project's launch timing is full of symbolism: the whitepaper information was released on October 31, the anniversary of Bitcoin's whitepaper publication, and the genesis block was mined on January 3, 2018—coinciding with the ninth anniversary of Bitcoin's genesis block, thereby declaring its inheritance of Bitcoin's foundational philosophy. The development team includes former Bitcoin Foundation members, and the underlying code is forked from Bitcoin's UTXO architecture, fully continuing the core PoW consensus mechanism.
Most importantly, it strictly adheres to fair issuance principles: no ICO, no private sale, no pre-mining, no founder's reserved shares. Before network launch, no tokens were pre-allocated; all RVN can only be mined after launch, with no early capital or development team advantage in token holdings, fundamentally avoiding the centralization issues common in most new projects. Unlike many contemporaneous public chains heavily reliant on institutional capital, RVN has no external venture capital-led capital planning; its development depends on community and miner support, with no narrative compromises under capital binding. 🚨 $BTC: Bull Trap or Real Reversal?
Bitcoin surged from $76K to $81K, but was the rally driven by short liquidations rather than fresh buying?
⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty remains
📉 Capital flows need confirmation
👀 $81K breakout needs follow-through
Don't confuse a short squeeze with a trend reversal. Stay cautious and manage risk.
#BTC #DemocratsWinCongress #Crypto #OKX #DailyOrbit🚨 History Repeating? US Midterms Could Shake $BTC!
Past midterms brought major BTC corrections:
📉 2014: -48%
📉 2018: -50%
📉 2022: -16%
Could 2026 bring another wave of volatility?
Watch crypto regulation, fiscal policy, capital flows, and investor sentiment.
History offers clues, not guarantees. 👀
$BTC #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #Crypto #OKX #DailyOrbit🚀 $AMD Beat Is Real. But Can It Close Green?
🔥 Revenue: $13.38B
📈 Data Center: +97%
⚠️ FCF: -64% to $554M
📦 Inventory: $11.46B
The earnings are impressive, but political risks and rising inventory deserve attention.
My call? Bullish, but not blindly. 👀
$AMD
#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% #Stocks #OKX #DailyOrbit如果你是在 2,450.30 附近追进去的，现在 2,421.95 这个位置大概是最难受的。 ETH 现在的坐标：现价 2,421.95，24 小时涨 5.42%，处在 24 小时区间 2,226.85 ~ 2,450.30 的 87% 分位。 把这一段拆开看：上行的 6 根 1 小时 K 线配上 1.93 倍的均量，说明放量背后是有资金在动的。50 小时均线在 2,291.95，现价在它的上方 5.67%，大体就是这一波的中期成本区。 关键位置： · 上方：2,450.30（+1.17%），也是 24 小时高点 · 下方：2,226.85（-8.06%），也是 24 小时低点 · 24 小时成交额 5.16 亿 USDT（1H K线口径） · 永续资金费率 +0.007% / 8h —— 费率转正，多头持仓成本在上升 分歧主要就卡在这几条上： · 看多的理由：现价 2,421.95 还在 20 小时均线 2,325.31 的上方，短线结构没走坏； · 看空的理由：24 小时区间只有 10.03%，方向没选出来之前追价的成本偏高； 资金费率为正，多头持仓成本在上升，拥挤的那一边更容易先Some say that historically, $BTC tends to perform weakly after the US midterm elections, so this phase is not suitable for trading contracts or using leverage.
But I think we shouldn't just look at the year; we need to consider the technical trend at the time.
Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC was clearly in a bear market phase, with long-term moving averages trending downward and prices continuously suppressed by trendlines.
Now looking at 2026, the market structure has changed: the price has broken through the downtrend line and climbed back above the yearly moving average.
So, we can't simply judge the current market based on past price movements.
History can be a reference, but it shouldn't be copied blindly. What really matters are the trend, position, and market structure.
If BTC returns near the yearly moving average, would you choose to wait and see or look for trading opportunities?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #OKXOrbitBTC dominance is currently trading below the horizontal supply zone of an ascending triangle pattern and is operating within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud, indicating market indecision.
If rejected at the supply zone, it could trigger a further decline in BTC dominance, potentially supporting a bullish trend for altcoins.
On the other hand, a strong breakout above the supply zone could invalidate the bearish scenario and push BTC dominance higher.
Given its strong correlation with cryptocurrencies, the next move of the S&P will play a key role in shaping overall risk sentiment $BTC "The Wyckoff Trading Method" - Supply and Demand
Supply and demand are a pair of important concepts in economic activity. Price fluctuations in any market stem from changes in the supply and demand relationship. Whether in securities, stock markets, futures, or forex markets, a fundamental principle is that imbalances in supply and demand generate trends. What we commonly observe are market phenomena: such as support and resistance, trends, and price-volume fluctuations, all caused by imbalances in supply and demand. However, retail investors often focus more on indicators and geometric patterns, lacking the ability to accurately measure the state of supply and demand at a certain price level or during a specific time period, which leads to misjudgments. For example, in a certain price range, who is controlling the market — the buyers or the sellers? At the early stage of distribution at the top, changes in supply and demand already show that supply begins to exceed demand, signaling danger. Yet the surface price movement on the chart still shows a continued upward breakout, and many technical indicators still give signals to keep buying 📶, making everyone believe the market will continue to rise sharply. The fundamental way to resolve these misjudgments is to use supply and demand relationships to identify institutional positioning. $BTC #CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns
Here's an important detail behind Coinbase's Q3 results:
$719M reported net income.
$77.7M adjusted net income.
Why the difference?
Gains on crypto assets held for investment significantly boosted reported profit.
A strong headline deserves a closer look. Understanding where profits come from matters just as much as the final number.
#Coinbase #COIN #CryptoOn the eve of the non-farm payrolls, first steady your mindset (｡•́︿•̀｡)
After several days of continuous decline, the account has been shrinking all the way. Watching the market feels like opening a blind box; I close it but can't help wanting to check again, really frustrating _(:з」∠)_. Tossing and turning at night, and during the day I don't even dare to open the market charts, this sense of powerlessness is too real.
All eyes this week are on the non-farm payrolls. September only added 29,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, a strong signal of cooling employment; the market roughly expects 60,000 to 80,000 for October. If it continues to be soft, the Federal Reserve's rate hike pressure will ease, and funds will be more willing to flow back into risk assets.
BTC is oscillating between 76,000 and 78,000. After breaking below 77,000, it bounced a bit but still remains below the key moving averages, RSI is low, short-term weakness remains unchanged (´･_･`). ETH is consolidating around 2250, with 2200 temporarily holding support and significant resistance near 2300, clearly linked with BTC.
Before the non-farm payrolls land, it will most likely continue to consolidate with volatility. Don't rush to guess the direction; it's safer to wait for the data before making moves. The market is not short of opportunities, but it lacks a good mindset and patience ヽ(•ω•ゞ)
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC
According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach 337 million.
Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $79,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach 919 million.
This rebound was driven by the stock market, but the follow-up momentum is weak, and a retest of 79K is very likely.$SOL & XAU gold options officially launched on Stryke.
Derivative tools continue to diversify, the SOL ecosystem keeps evolving, with room for both long and short strategies.Bulls first "get off the bus," mainstream coins take a breather (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
In the past 24 hours, BTC, ETH, and CORE have shown similar capital settlement patterns: it's not a fierce bear attack, but rather bulls consolidating their positions in an orderly manner. The chasing funds are first digested, and short-term floating pressure is subsequently released (￣▽￣)ノ
$BTC total settlement is 97,998,800, with bulls at 66,923,400 and bears at 31,075,400. The high proportion of bull settlements indicates that major market targets prioritize clearing upward momentum followers. $ETH total settlement is 68,785,800, with bulls at 38,795,200 and bears at 29,990,600, following the same rhythm as BTC, with even stronger bull rebalancing (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$CORE, with a smaller volume, has a total settlement of 54,100, bulls at 51,800, and bears at 2,343.36, but its structure follows the mainstream, with short-term bull positions also being sorted out. Overall, the three are not bear-dominated but represent active adjustments of bullish positions following the trend.
This looks more like a "get off first, then consolidate" breathing process. After the chasing funds settle in concentration, short-term pressure eases; the key focus going forward is to observe whether the post-rebalancing position distribution can be more solid and stable (๑¯ω¯๑)AMD’s data center revenue nearly doubled in Q3, while results elsewhere showed a more uneven picture.
Q3 2026 results included:
• Revenue: $13.377B, up 45% YoY and 16% QoQ
• Non-GAAP diluted EPS: $2.09, up 74% YoY
• GAAP net income: $2.428B, up 95% YoY
• GAAP operating margin: 21%, versus 17% in Q2 and 14% a year earlier
Revenue exceeded the $13.09B LSEG estimate, while non-GAAP EPS beat the $1.95 forecast. GAAP operating income rose 123%, showing that operating profit grew faster than salesIt's not their own money, so they don't feel bad spending it 😅
A hacker suspected of stealing $106 million from an EU entity bought 27,553 $ETH in a single day yesterday, worth $62.83 million. All the buying operations were completed on-chain, with an average price of $2280.34. It seems the buying has now paused.
Wallet address 0x9EcA05D78f6751C91Ab048858b7d21a67C015547These three altcoins are still quietly declining as holders sell off; be cautious when bottom-fishing.
$RIVER: Previously peaked at 88, then rebounded to around 34 leaving a large number of high-position long orders; after more than half a year of consolidation, the trapped positions have not been fully cleared, and the market looks more like continuous distribution. Don't mistake the decline for an opportunity; bottom-fishing lightly may lead to deeper losses.
$KAT: Had a surge shortly after launch, then a long-term quiet decline. Although the small cap seems to have a light trapped position, it doesn't mean there is capital willing to push it up; with weak liquidity and poor support, rebounds are more likely to become sell-off windows.
$BSB: Previously shorted around 2.7 with some profit, now still in a quiet decline rhythm, with long positions floating at a loss of about $240,000. After half a year of adjustment, there are still many trapped positions, and restarting a rally will face significant resistance.
The common risk for these types of assets is that "falling a lot" does not equal "falling to the bottom." Quiet declines to sell off often trade time for space, and rebounds do not necessarily mean a reversal. Without clear signs of a bottom and capital inflow, don't use the decline as a reason to bottom-fish; observe cautiously.