Orbit Post Sitemap

Top 10 airdrops worldwide have crashed $STRK says it will move from L2 to L1 in 2027 Can this move salvage the situation?$NVDA fell back to 200, east rising and west falling? Is the tech bull really over? Can the bulls get some breathing room? As long as the pattern is trapped, no support on the downside, all resistance on the upside, this is scarier than July. Nvidia is now at $200.13, retreating from the October 6 high of $243.37 to around 200, a short-term "valuation kill". The market is straightforward: price broke below the 200-day moving average, MACD green bars expanded, KDJ oversold, Bollinger lower band at 199.2 underfoot. As long as the 200 integer level holds, it’s still high-level consolidation; if it truly breaks 199.6, look down to 190. Resistance above is at 204, 212, 220; without volume pushing back above 212, it’s considered a weak rebound. But the fundamentals haven’t collapsed. FY26 full-year revenue is 215.9 billion, Non-GAAP gross margin 71.3%, Blackwell in full production, Rubin taking over in the second half of 2026, and inference demand driven by Agentic AI is still ramping up. PE (TTM) is 25x, which isn’t expensive for a compute leader growing over 60%. The real risks aren’t whether AI is a false demand, but three things: Whether cloud providers’ capital expenditure cycles will marginally slow; AMD, Google TPU, and Amazon’s self-developed chips taking away some market share; China’s export restrictions continuing to shrink accessible markets. Currently, 95% of institutions are bullish, with an average target price above 320, but that’s a 12-month view, not tomorrow. My judgment is that the tech bull is over. Understand the current capital truth of $BTC with one CVD chart — spot whales have entered, are you still in? Many worry this wave will turn bearish directly; just look at the 4-hour separated CVD to tell clearly. Since the drop from 87300, the main force smashing the market has been leveraged contract funds, with the blue line deeply declining all the way, bulls stopping losses and shorts adding positions. This is also what I have emphasized: this drop is more dominated by the contract market rather than a large-scale sell-off in the spot market. Meanwhile, spot funds have not panicked and fled. Since the day Binance was hacked and the price dropped to around 76300, the orange spot CVD has stabilized and turned upward, with spot whales starting to accumulate chips in batches. The declines yesterday and today saw spot CVD buying again, leading the contract CVD rebound and crossing above the contract CVD. Notably, the contract market has not caught up yet, as it just experienced a large number of consecutive liquidations and still needs to recover. Further observation is needed: 1. Whether spot CVD can continue to recover and turn positive from negative. 2. When contract CVD will sharply turn upward. Only when spot + contract funds resonate and flow back will the upper resistance zone of 84,000–85,000 open, driving altcoin rotation. Finally, we still see this pullback of over ten thousand points as a continuation of the uptrend, unless spot CVD continues to deeply decline afterward.SpaceX's stock supply might increase by about 50%, which is the figure I care about most in Hayes' estimate. I usually separate "the company getting money" from "old shareholders being able to exit": both are capital stories after going public, but they are not the same thing for the company's sustainability. The article also warns that the stock price pressure on AI giants might transmit through the credit chain to the crypto market. My judgment is that the IPO hype cannot be directly counted as a positive for crypto. An increase in unlocked shares available for trading does not mean the company obtains new funds, nor does it mean all these shares will be sold. My speculation is: if supply pressure lowers the stock price and causes creditors to raise financing quotes, then the financing convenience brought by going public might be discounted, and the crypto market could also be dragged down by tightening liquidity. So I care more about whether the "exit channel widens" or the "financing channel narrows." To judge whether this risk is approaching, would you choose to watch the stock price performance after unlocking or the bond yields of related companies?A dinner bill suddenly popped into my mind: the AI giants are responsible for ordering lobster, the crypto crowd is sitting at the next table, but the waiter says, "You all need to eat a little less." My first reaction was: this table hasn't even settled the bill yet, but the check is already being calculated 😂 Arthur Hayes warns in "D is for Dilution" that SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may face unlocking and dilution pressure after going public. According to his estimates, by June 2027, SpaceX could add about 8.6 billion new shares outstanding, equivalent to about a 50% increase in share supply; initial investors in Anthropic's IPO may face dilution as high as 83% during the same period. I think this is more like a liquidity stress test and cannot be directly taken as a bearish verdict for the crypto space. My reasoning is that more shares do not mean banks will immediately lend less money. According to his logic, this still has to go through stages like stock price weakening, bond investors demanding higher yields, and AI credit contraction, so the scenario shouldn't be treated as an immediate account notification. But if banks slow down balance sheet expansion because of this, then the crypto market might be passively pressured; this is a speculation following his logic and means that only focusing on crypto news might miss the source of risk. So I would pay more attention to whether this chain can transmit to the credit side, rather than just counting new shares. Are you on the side of "dilution should be warned about in advance," or "credit contraction is the real hammer"? The next table ordered lobster, so should we really keep the instant noodle soup first?In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.004 billion, burying 135,000 people. Short positions liquidated $571 million, long positions liquidated $434 million. Shorts liquidated $137 million more than longs, which is completely opposite to previous "long liquidations" market trends. Looking at the coin distribution: BTC alone liquidated $408 million, with shorts accounting for 75.6%, meaning over $300 million of that was short positions liquidated; ETH liquidated $248 million, also dominated by red shorts. BTC and ETH are the hardest hit areas in this short squeeze. Looking at the timeline: $621 million liquidated within 12 hours, with shorts at $425 million. This was the wave after last night's election results, a collective stampede of shorts. Within 4 hours, longs and shorts were almost even ($17.17 million vs. $14.83 million), indicating a tug-of-war after the rebound. The largest single liquidation was on HTX's ETH, a $37.99 million short position forcibly closed by a whale. This kind of short-dominated liquidation market is called a "short squeeze." Election results → bad news fully priced in → shorts panic close positions → price pushed up. But brothers, understand that in this $1 billion liquidation, shorts were passively closed, not new longs entering. The characteristic of a short squeeze is rapid rises and rapid falls. Once shorts are fully liquidated, without new buying support, prices can fall anytime. 130,000 people liquidated shows leverage was too crowded at this level. With non-farm payroll data coming out tomorrow night, don't chase the highs. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Super reversal lands! BTC/ETH shorts completely flushed out 🔥 $BTC｜80699 Today's market sees a two-way shakeout, with an early dip to 75628 hitting a six-week low, followed by a violent rebound during the US stock session, breaking key resistance levels repeatedly, with an intraday volatility of 4.9%. This rally is driven by concentrated short covering, with no new capital entering. Macro tailwinds support the market: crude oil, inflation, US bonds, and the dollar all weaken simultaneously. However, ETFs continue to see outflows, and institutions have not returned. Looking ahead, holding above 79000 targets resistance at 81647; breaking through 82000 targets 84000; a drop below leads to a 77000-78200 consolidation. ADP beats expectations; avoid chasing highs before nonfarm payrolls. Range: 79800-81400｜Stop loss: 79300 $ETH｜2427 After piercing the 2226 low, a strong rebound with a single-day gain of 6.97% outperforms BTC, with stronger short squeezes. Multiple resistances have been broken; upside targets are 2450 and 2513. But ETFs continue to bleed, making the strength hard to sustain. Holding 2317 supports continuation of the rebound; breaking below returns to the 2250 range. Range: 2390-2460｜Stop loss: 2360 About $132.8 million, I will break this amount into two columns: how much is in coin value, and how much cash is actually in hand; the report only provides the first column. Lookonchain detected that MARA transferred a batch of $BTC to platforms like Galaxy Digital and Copper. What I care more about is whether the mining company can convert assets into usable funds, rather than whether the transfer amount is shockingly large. My judgment is that this looks more like a signal for fund management observation, not enough to be taken as evidence of deteriorating operations. According to my speculation, if the transfer is for financing, it can alleviate cash demand but may also increase collateral constraints; if it is a sale, then cash increases and coin exposure decreases. These two arrangements carry completely different risk profiles. I would choose to be more cautious and wait for clearer usage before making a judgment, not rushing to label the mining company. When encountering such large transfers with unclear purposes, would you prefer to play it safe and wait for clarification, or are you willing to take the risk of misjudgment and prematurely bet on one explanation?Seeing this message, I feel the same familiarity as in the previous round: when off-chain financing heats up, the crypto circle has to watch the US dollar liquidity. Arthur Hayes warned in a post that AI giants may face unlocking and dilution pressure after going public; according to his estimate, SpaceX could add about 8.6 billion new circulating shares by June 2027, equivalent to increasing the share supply by about 50%. What’s different this time is that he places the risk chain on the bank balance sheets. My understanding of the transmission is: if stock prices come under pressure and push up financing costs, AI credit may contract; if banks then slow down balance sheet expansion, the crypto market may also lose a source of US dollar liquidity. But this is a conditional deduction, not an already occurring liquidity withdrawal. My judgment is a bearish cycle reminder, not an immediate sell-off signal. Compared to the dilution ratio, I pay more attention to whether credit is truly tightening. Do veteran players feel the same familiarity? Will you watch AI stock unlocking or bank balance sheet expansion?Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), and SOL ($SOL) all rose simultaneously, but this round of rally is more of a short squeeze rather than a broad bullish consensus. $BTC refreshed the local high to 78520, $ETH reached 2322.8, and SOL ($SOL) showed relatively weak gains, only 0.87%. The most obvious signal behind the market comes from liquidation data. Recently, a large number of short positions in $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL were forcibly closed, while the scale of long liquidations was much smaller. The price rise mainly relied on shorts being forced out rather than new buying continuously absorbing selling pressure. However, leverage has not decreased accordingly. The long-short ratio of the three coins has somewhat declined, but the total open interest continues to rise, meaning the liquidated short positions are being replaced by new longs. At the same time, all three have positive funding rates, indicating longs need to pay fees to maintain the current uptrend. Now that a large wave of short positions has been cleared, the buying momentum from forced liquidations has weakened, and longs need to continuously bear holding costs. Interestingly, SOL ($SOL) has the highest funding rate but the weakest performance among the three, indicating that clustered longs do not necessarily gain profits. The key observation point ahead is $BTC at 78520. Holding this level, a breakout could attract shorts to re-enter and restart the squeeze; if broken, these longs carrying holding costs may face a new round of stampede. Additionally, $ETH during the statistical period almost had no long... Following point 9️⃣ Cloud providers have negative cash flow but are still increasing future capital expenditures, AI large models are pre-booking future computing power demand. Those selling the tools won’t let the market down, refer to AMD. It is recommended to take profits while earnings sentiment is high and hasn’t fallen back yet, Remember "Never make the last penny." Risk control > profit, build positions in batches, leverage should not exceed 10x A platform not on the top list achieved a single-day perpetual contract trading volume of $414.9 million yesterday, a historical high. This number alone is meaningless; it only makes sense when paired with another: perpetual contracts contributed 43% of its total daily revenue. First, look at the structure. Derivatives platforms mainly earn from fees, and perpetual contracts are the easiest product to convert trading volume into revenue—there’s no expiration date, positions can be rolled over indefinitely, and one can open and close many times a day. When perpetual volume rises, revenue follows mechanically. But volume does not equal profit. $414.9 million is nominal turnover, not net inflow. The same margin can be opened and closed twenty times, generating twenty times the nominal volume. To judge whether this new high reflects real demand or just wash trading, one must see if new account openings are rising in sync and whether the average margin per trade is increasing or decreasing. Neither is mentioned here. Next, look at concentration. One product line accounting for 43% of daily revenue means the platform’s revenue curve almost mirrors the perpetual contract volume curve. When volume is good, the financials look good; once $BTC volatility narrows and leverage demand wanes, revenue will drop much faster than user numbers. So the real takeaway from this news isn’t the $415 million, but the 43%. Nearly half the revenue depends on a single product, making growth elasticity and vulnerability the same thing. One question remains: if next month volume remains at a new high but the 43% drops to 30%, does that mean new business is rising, or is perpetual subsidizing volume growth?The crypto circle's hot topic just surfaced, and the prediction market odds have already shifted. I haven't even found the original news yet. This speed really makes you wonder if someone got the answer in advance. But if the market depth is thin, a slightly concentrated buy order can skew the odds. Unlike trading Bitcoin, here you're betting on event outcomes, and even the definition of "how it counts as happening" has to be scrutinized. Odds are pricing given by the funds, not a certification of facts. I actually want to click on those suddenly changed markets to see where the news source really is, but no matter how much I search, it's always the same screenshot?Moving stocks onto the blockchain, the hardest part to transfer is actually the order book. I think the real weight of the Hyperliquid news is that it shifts the competitive topic from "what can be traded" to "whether deeper trading demands can be supported." According to Bloomberg, co-founder Jeff Yan went to London to meet some policymakers and hinted at the possibility of offering tokenized products of large company stocks in the future. The report also states that core contributors of the platform hold at least 238 million HYPE tokens, valued at about $20 billion; this is not his disclosed personal net worth. What I care more about is how liquidity will come. Tokenizing stocks increases trading access points but does not automatically increase the funds willing to continuously quote prices. My guess is, if market making, pricing, and risk hedging don’t keep up, then no matter how long the trading hours are, it might just be shelves open with very thin order books. Another variable is third parties. The report says third parties play an important role in product supply, which means the product experience may not be determined solely by the platform. For ordinary users, how the underlying stocks correspond and how abnormal market conditions are handled might affect trust more than how user-friendly the access is. I see this as an important signal of on-chain trading competing for traditional asset demand, but the assumption that "liquidity exceeds traditional stock markets" still needs to be verified. Next, I will focus on product rules and the ability to maintain continuous quotes, rather than being dazzled first by asset digitization. Just finished lunch, was feeling sleepy, but after checking last night's spot ETF data, I was instantly wide awake. The contracts surged so fiercely last night—do you think big money was frantically buying? These institutions are playing a double game, one face in front, another behind! $BTC endured outflows for a full four days (tens of millions flowing out each day previously), but yesterday finally saw a turnaround with a net inflow of $9.63 million. However, looking closely at the details, BlackRock (IBIT) withdrew nearly $26 million, while Fidelity (FBTC) stepped in with $30 million to cover. This clearly shows internal disagreements among institutions. Although they started tentative buying, the old foxes are very cautious. Looking at $ETH, there was heavy bleeding in recent days. Yesterday showed a superficial net inflow of $23,300, but don't rush to celebrate. BlackRock (ETHA) alone dumped nearly 100 million in a single day. Grayscale is buying, but BlackRock is aggressively selling, indicating institutions are distributing at highs during the rebound. This ETH rally won't last long. The funniest is $SOL—yesterday's data showed zero across all items. A few days ago, there were daily outflows, and now institutions don't even bother pretending; they just lie flat. This means SOL is now purely retail traders hyping contracts with no big money backing. In summary, contracts reflect sentiment, but spot holdings are the real solid foundation. Although the BTC ETF has stopped falling, disagreements remain large. Don't blindly rush in just because the candlestick is up; understanding institutional intentions is the key. What do you think—can BTC firmly hold 80,000 this time? Are you holding long or short positions now? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Brent's 8.67% drop to $94.62 on Nov. 4 shows how quickly a possible easing in the Iran conflict is being priced through oil. The midterm result may sharpen political pressure, but Qatar has no deal and Iran's demands remain unresolved. Markets are discounting a path to supply relief, not confirming it. #OilWarRiskRepricing #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ The gaming business is under short-term pressure but profits are improving, while the music business shows steady growth, jointly supporting Sony's better-than-expected earnings report this time. In gaming and network services (G&NS), PS5 hardware sales have slowed due to rising storage chip costs, but profit improvement is driven by increased network services and digital software share, as well as favorable exchange rates, with Q1 operating profit up 37% year-on-year. The release of "GTA VI" in November will be an important catalyst for the second half of the year. The music business performed even more impressively, with Q1 revenue up 21% year-on-year, driven by comprehensive growth in streaming, offline events, and copyright income. Recently completed the acquisition of copyrights for over 45,000 songs from Recognition Music Group, further expanding IP assets. Together, these two major segments account for more than one-third of Sony's revenue. The recovery of gaming profits plus continuous growth in music are the core supports for this better-than-expected earnings report.The phrase "share unlocking" made me pause for a moment: AI company stocks can be sold now, so how does that affect the crypto space? Hayes is worried it will drag down stock prices and the credit market, further squeezing crypto liquidity, so Maelstrom is temporarily taking a wait-and-see approach. My understanding is that unlocking does not equal new issuance, nor can it be directly interpreted as funds being withdrawn. I think the more important aspect of this news is risk appetite, not the number of shares: if post-unlocking sell-offs push stock prices down and make credit funds more cautious, then the crypto market might come under pressure as well. This is my speculation based on the news, not a result that has already occurred. After being in the space for a year, I still tend to jump to "someone can sell now" and imagine it as "they're about to dump" 😂. I haven't figured out yet what level of stock price pressure would affect credit. A reminder to myself: being able to sell, actually selling, and impacting other markets are three different things and should not be equated all at once. This wave of $BTC has given me a decent rebound to wait for. The long position entered around 77300 has already moved from unrealized loss to unrealized profit. The second long order placed at 76188 was also successfully filled. Looking back now, the fill at 76188 was actually quite thrilling. BTC once dipped to around 75690, the worst moment on the chart when no one knew if there was more room below. Fortunately, I didn’t go all in at once but placed orders in batches as planned. BTC has now risen above 80800, reaching a high of 81199. The 1-hour Bollinger middle band is at 78993, the upper band at 81420; the price has clearly returned to a strong range but is also close to facing resistance at the upper band. On the news front, the US midterm election results are in, with the Democrats taking both chambers. When the results first came out, BTC briefly dropped below 76000, then made a V-shaped rebound, climbing back above 81000. The market is now trading not just on the election results themselves but also on whether subsequent crypto regulatory legislation will be affected. Risk appetite has returned, but policy uncertainty remains. The first two long positions have already secured profits, so the next priority is protecting those profits rather than chasing after every big bullish candle. The orders from 77300 to 76188 were all pre-planned limit orders, not just excuses made after the price rose. #DailyOrbit In this message, what I'm focusing on are the four words "credit market." In the futures market, a price drop in a certain commodity isn't necessarily the most worrisome; it's when financing conditions tighten that things get troublesome, because that might force those who originally didn't want to reduce their positions to also shuffle funds. When I look at such cross-market news, I usually start by checking the money flow, not rushing to guess the direction. Hayes believes that the unlocking of AI company shares could drag down stock prices and the credit market, thereby compressing liquidity in the crypto market. Maelstrom is currently taking a wait-and-see approach. My own judgment is that this is more like a capital stress test question and cannot yet be directly taken as a bearish conclusion for the crypto market. The key lies in whether the credit link is truly affected. Crypto is different from traditional commodities; you can't directly apply industry supply and demand, but the logic of financing constraints can be compared. My speculation is that if pressure on the stock side causes fund providers to reduce risk limits, then even if crypto itself has no bad news, it might still be implicated; if it's just an internal repricing of AI stocks, this transmission chain may not hold. My old habit, frankly, is to first see whether borrowing money is difficult, then see whether the story is compelling. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When you encounter such news, what credit indicators would you use to judge whether the pressure has transmitted to crypto, rather than just looking at whether both sides are falling together? $BTC is still hovering just above eighty thousand in the afternoon, roughly oscillating around eighty thousand and three hundred. The momentum from the morning's sharp rebound has clearly dulled; seeing the green but not daring to chase much. Last night, the pullback from around seventy-five thousand looked scary, but much of it was shorts being squeezed out pushing the price up, not new money frantically buying. The sideways movement in the afternoon with less active trading makes the market feel suspiciously quiet—this is when it's easiest to feel stuck on both sides: afraid to chase due to pullbacks, but also afraid to short because of a possible late-night surge, itching to act but hesitant to go heavy. My own view is simple: sideways does not mean the buildup is complete. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are still ahead, and there's no solid sign of ETF inflows yet; the resistance above eighty-two thousand remains tough. Don't take this little green in the afternoon as a free pass to confidently add positions, and don't relax your mindset just because "it's already above eighty thousand." Holding steady is a breather, not a license. When short-term volatility is high, position sizing and discipline are more valuable than slogans. Are you watching the show for now, or can’t you resist taking action yet? $BTC $ETH $SOL #CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns Coinbase's prediction markets surpassed $200M in annualized revenue during Q3. Daily traders grew over 60% quarter over quarter, while more than half of Q3 contracts traded were non-sports. That's an interesting sign of how prediction markets are expanding beyond sports. #Coinbase #Crypto #Web3Short-term focus on amount VS long-term focus on sustainability, I usually start with this comparison when looking at mining company news. Lookonchain detected that MARA Holdings transferred 1,650 $BTC, approximately $132.8 million, to platforms like Galaxy Digital and Copper in the past 12 hours. My judgment: This news carries more weight for short-term sentiment than for explaining long-term supply and demand. The scale of over a hundred million dollars easily leads the market to associate it with selling pressure; however, 12 hours is just an observation window and cannot be used to judge the mining company's long-term capital arrangements. If similar transfers continue to appear afterward, then I will increase my attention to potential supply pressure — this is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred. Therefore, I lean more towards "looking at sustainability"; the amount grabs attention, but continuous behavior has a greater impact on my judgment. Would you raise your alert based on a single large transfer, or adjust your view on mining company supply only after multiple consecutive transfers?Three majors are rising together, but the composition of the rally looks less like broad conviction than a one-sided squeeze. $BTC printed a fresh local high at $78,520 and trades near $78,497, up 2.43% over 24 hours. $ETH sits at $2,322.8, also up 2.44%, while $SOL lags at $93.09 with a 0.87% gain. The price action is synchronized; the positioning beneath it is not. The clearest signal comes from liquidations. Over the past 86 minutes, $BTC recorded 100 liquidation orders worth $806,000 in shorWhy do I analyze that now is not the time to enter a long position? If this really were a strong bullish trend with a big rally, yesterday it would have firmly held at least the 84000 level. Only then could everyone believe that the capital's bullish counterattack has sounded the horn. But why did it pull back to just above 81000, waiting for retail investors to get on board, promising quick profits? Even if it does make you money, it would have to be at the 84000 level, not 81000. This clearly shows insufficient capital trying to pull retail investors up together, using the opportunity to escape. At most, tomorrow, there is one more day before it must crash down.The dog that can't be killed is the most valuable dog First, my judgment: The most valuable thing about DOGE is not its hype, but its longevity. It has survived for eleven years, while 90% of coins born at the same time have gone to the grave. It is still lively and kicking. This kind of "unkillable" nature itself is an option that the market has undervalued. Lindy's Law states plainly: for something that does not naturally perish, every additional year it lives adds another year to its expected lifespan. This applies to books, technology, and currencies alike. DOGE was born as a joke, survived three full bull and bear cycles, and outlasted countless challengers claiming to replace it. Eleven years undefeated means it is no longer a game that can end at any moment, but an asset with survival inertia. The key lies in the compounding of consensus. The longer it lives, the more people know about it, the less exchanges dare to delist it, the more wallets are willing to support it, and the more loyal the community becomes. Once this cycle starts, it’s no longer a price issue but a presence issue. Like the noodle shop at the neighborhood entrance that’s been open for twenty years — its taste may not be the best, but it’s the first thing you think of when you’re hungry late at night. Adding Elon Musk into the mix, DOGE gains a variable others don’t have: a superstar spokesperson who naturally brings traffic, plus a namesake department to ride the hype. This off-market catalyst effectively gifts the option with time value. Of course, longevity doesn’t guarantee a rise; options can expire worthless, and faith coins never spare you from drawdowns. So my view: don’t just focus on whether $DOGE will surge or not; first acknowledge one thing — a dog that can’t die is already appreciating just by "being alive." #DailyOrbit #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ This week's U.S. employment data could not only reinforce the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate hike in December but might also directly lock in this action; federal funds futures have priced the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December at 81%–83%. At the FOMC meeting at the end of October, although the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, there was a 10-to-2 vote split, indicating high internal vigilance against an inflation rebound. The ADP private sector employment increase of 86,000 in October, released on November 4, was steady and in line with the previous figure. What alarms the Fed more is wage stickiness—total compensation for employed persons rose 4.7% year-over-year, while total compensation for job switchers surged 7.6%, marking the fastest growth since March 2024. September's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased by only 29,000, and the market median expectation for October's nonfarm payrolls, to be released on November 6, is only 55,000 to 65,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.2%. In short, since the market has already heavily priced in a December rate hike, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is actually an asymmetric game: data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations will solidify the rate hike outlook and support U.S. Treasury yields; conversely, if the data again falls significantly below 50,000 as in September, it would break the current consensus on rate hikes and trigger a sharp dovish market repricing.Why did the US stock market and BTC rise after Trump lost the midterm elections? The key lies in war and oil prices. JD Vance mentioned that the war has pushed up energy prices, increasing the cost of living pressure on the American public. The market is starting to bet on a possible easing of US-Iran tensions, leading to a drop in oil prices and a subsequent easing of inflationary pressure. Oil price decline → Inflation relief → Rising expectations of interest rate cuts → Risk assets benefit. Although the advancement of the CLARITY Act may become more difficult, what the crypto market truly needs is liquidity. Focus next on: war, oil prices, and capital flows. The next opportunity for $BTC may depend on whether the macro environment can truly improve.From night to morning, the bulls have had a comfortable run: BTC touched above 80,000 for the first time, ETH surged to 2,440 at one point, gaining 7% in a single day, with the top 24-hour gainers mostly showing red candles. The trigger was straightforward—the midterm election results were finalized, and the control of both chambers was no longer in doubt. Risk assets never want good news, but certainty. BTC standing above the 200-day moving average last happened on the election day in 2014; in the three midterm election years that followed, Bitcoin's average annual gain was 53.7%. What really made the bears uncomfortable was ETH. Within two hours, $236 million worth of positions were liquidated, with shorts accounting for $132 million—this rise wasn't driven by buyers, but by shorts being forced up. The price naturally returned to the on-chain average realized cost line at 2,309 for the first time in this round. Why do I recognize this level: spot products have seen net outflows of $656 million over seven consecutive trading days, institutions withdrew a total of $1.6 billion in October, institutional money is flowing out while the price is pushing up, and the ETH balance on exchanges has dropped to the lowest in seven years. Chips have moved from the order book into dormant addresses; I've seen this structure at bottoms, but never at tops. The second signal is in LINK. Its gains this round have outperformed the market, with the price standing above all major moving averages: the partnership with Hanwha Investment & Securities focuses on tokenized assets, Aave has started using its 24-hour data feed, and its own reserve pool is...A 30% increase in one day, but the locked volume is still less than half of the peak at the beginning of the year.🔎 CAP rose about 30% in one day and about 30% in a month. However, the protocol's locked volume is only $190 million, with the peak at the beginning of the year being $480 million. Even more striking is the circulating supply: out of a total of 10 billion, only 15.6% has been released, and the remaining 84% is still locked. I think this surge is driven by expectations, not the protocol itself; chasing at the 0.1 price point is not cost-effective. $CAP #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Dow surged 1,569 points in a single day, a 3.03% increase marking its best performance since April 2025, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.58% and 1.44%, respectively. However, simply interpreting this bullish candle as "Democrats won, so the market rose" misses a more important signal: the market is repricing a new landscape of constrained fiscal expansion and a reversal in regulatory direction. Sector divergence provides more insight than index gains. Consumer discretionary and financials led with gains of 4.27% and 3.46%, while energy plummeted 4.77%. The declines in energy and defense reflect rising expectations of détente with Iran under Democratic control and the failure of the $1.5 trillion defense budget expansion; the rebound in clean energy and healthcare directly mirrors the policy benefit logic. Meanwhile, AI data center operators were heavily sold off—CoreWeave fell 10%, Hut 8 dropped over 20%—indicating the market is preemptively discounting an increased probability of regulatory hearings and investigations. The Democrats' victory in Texas and their push to halt data center construction are particularly critical. Looking ahead, two main themes to watch: 1️⃣ The "absence" of fiscal stimulus is structural: Democratic control of Congress means large-scale tax cuts and Budget Reconciliation Act 3.0 lose their legislative foundation, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is already pricing in this change. 2️⃣ Regulatory scrutiny will shift from "verbal risk" to "scheduled events": the frequency of hearings in technology, crypto, and data center sectors is very likely to increase, and the policy benefits for AI capital expenditures face reassessment.Polymarket's election report card is indeed impressive. According to official data, out of 426 settled U.S. midterm elections, the favorite candidate the day before the election won 419 times, with an accuracy rate of 98.4%. But don't interpret "accurate predictions" as "buying along guarantees profit." For example, buying a share for 99 cents only earns 1 cent if you guess right, but if there's an upset, you lose 99 cents, not including transaction costs. I think prediction markets have value: listen less to empty talk and see what judgments people are willing to back with real money. But if you really want to place a bet, you still have to ask: is this price worth the risk? Getting the result right and making money are truly two different things. SanDisk (SNDK) has recently plummeted, not due to a single negative factor, but as a result of the combined effect of earnings guidance falling short of expectations, U.S. political changes impacting AI infrastructure expectations, and concerns about the storage cycle "peaking." The most direct trigger was the forward guidance in the earnings report missing expectations: • Last quarter's performance was actually strong: Fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue surged 372% year-over-year, but the market did not respond positively. • Next quarter guidance was disappointing: revenue guidance range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, below the market expectation of $11.148 billion; gross margin guidance was roughly flat, interpreted as a sign of "peaking." • Market logic shift: SanDisk is a core beneficiary of the AI storage rally, with valuations already pricing in very high growth expectations. When the "better-than-expected past" cannot offset the "slightly below-expectation future," selling pressure concentrates. Macroeconomic impact: Democratic "blue wave" shakes AI data center expansion expectations The U.S. midterm election results brought deeper demand-side concerns: • Texas changes: Democratic candidate won the Texas governor election, advocating a pause on new data center construction. Texas accounts for about 27% of the planned data center capacity in the U.S. Goldman Sachs estimates that Democratic wins at state and county levels could affect about 45% of expansion capacity nationwide. • Transmission chain: Data centers are one of the largest incremental demand sources for NAND/DRAM memory chips. $ $BTC The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence. Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins. The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. When I look at stock tokens, I first calculate not how convenient the trading is, but the returns brought by that convenience, and whether they can cover the risks of rule changes. No matter how tempting the odds are, if the key uncertainties cannot be estimated, the expected value easily becomes a confusing mess. According to the latest announcement from OKXICE, Nebius, Boeing, and ServiceNow have joined the list opposing stock token trading, bringing the number of issuers raising objections to 62. My judgment is that this is somewhat bearish for the sector's expansion expectations, but "raising objections" should not be directly equated with trading being about to stop; the information does not support that conclusion. This news has led me to lower my expectations that "stock tokens can smoothly expand coverage": an increase in the objection list means expansion cannot be judged solely by how many listings the platform can add. If objections further affect trading arrangements, then users bear not only the risk of stock price fluctuations but also the risk of changes in arrangements. This is my scenario analysis, not a development that has already occurred. For me, only when trading arrangements and the boundaries of objection handling are clear enough does convenience deserve to be counted as part of the returns; if these remain vague, simply valuing the sector higher based on abundant listings, I think the odds are not worthwhile. Going forward, I want to see how objections are handled rather than how many more issuers might be added to the list.CFX Historical Trend: In the early stage, there was an extreme speculative surge reaching 1.7U, which was a typical bull market sentiment-driven rally, not sustained by fundamental drivers; after the bull market ended, a long value reversion began, dropping to a low of 0.02169. Subsequently, there were several pulse rebounds, but each rebound peak was lower than the previous one, failing to form a progressively higher upward structure. Previous rallies were mostly narrative-driven by policy and compliance-related news; once the news hype faded, funds exited, and the price re-entered a slow decline. Current Market Status: The current price is 0.04639, grinding at the lower edge of a large range. The long-term VWAP is 0.172, and the current price is far below this average holding cost, meaning the vast majority of early entrants are trapped. Volatility has been decreasing over the past few months, with volume continuously shrinking, representing a typical "bearish grinding bottom" where buyers are reluctant to enter, trapped holders are inactive, and there is a lack of active incremental capital. Comparison with Peers: Other public chains have at least continuously active ecosystems and stable on-chain transaction flows, with market trends following the overall market and sufficient elasticity; however, CFX currently heavily relies on news stimuli, has weak spontaneous ecosystem activity, and often underperforms mainstream coins during market rebounds. It only experiences short-term pulses when exclusive positive news appears, with poor sustainability. If no heavyweight landing benefits or capital inflows occur in the future: it will grind repeatedly at low levels, oscillate within a range, occasionally spike, then slowly decline, with liquidity gradually thinning; if there is an unexpected positive catalyst, it will quickly surge in the short term, but the heavy trapped positions above make it difficult to sustain a long bull market, resulting more in a fast rise and fall narrative-driven market.The top five TRUMP holding addresses look like a health check report today. Four of the five addresses had transactions, except the largest position only closed 838 coins. The remaining long position of $928,300 remains untouched, with an unrealized loss of $855,700—losses have eaten up more than half of the principal. Not cutting losses is not a judgment, but reluctance to turn unrealized losses into realized ones. The shorts on the other side are much more orderly. TOP3 had zero transactions today but openly placed 80,000 coins sell orders at $2, holding a short position of 615,900 coins with an unrealized profit of $457,200. TOP2 frequently opened and closed shorts, net adding 460,500 coins short, pocketing $223,300. TOP5 has bidirectional orders rolling over positions, only an unrealized loss of $3,050. In total, longs hold 1,493,100 coins, shorts 1,797,900 coins, totaling $3,291,000, with the scale clearly tilted towards the shorts. What’s really worth watching is not who is losing more, but who is still entering. TOP4 continuously opened longs of 447,500 coins at an average price of $1.244, making a small profit of $7,878, the only profitable long, and entered while others were deeply trapped. There is a layer of selling pressure waiting to be relieved above, and short sellers’ add orders hanging below. $TRUMP is unlikely to break out in a single direction in the short term. To go long, the first signal to watch is whether TOP3 will withdraw that 80,000 coin $2 sell order.📊 Whale Movement: $344 Million Sell Pressure Looming A major on-chain move just broke out: Trump's media transferred 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com, valued at $344 million. The market is currently conflicted—BTC just climbed back above $80,000, up 3.08% in 24h, with recovery driven by fading election uncertainty still ongoing. 👉 Breaking down this transfer: two transactions of 2,140 and 2,119 BTC respectively, marking the first concentrated transfer to a CEX after months of dormancy. At the psychological $80k mark, this $344 million potential sell pressure could either be preparing for a dump to realize profits or serve as a margin hedge base. Either way, the sell pressure above $80,000 is solidly thickening. 🗣️ Macro context: December rate hike pricing rebounded to 81.5% this morning, with non-farm payrolls releasing tomorrow night, previous figure only 29,000. The macro outlook is already bearish, and this whale's pending order on-chain adds to the pressure, squeezing the rebound from both sides. 👉 Trader's takeaway: $79,700 is today's key dividing line; breaking below indicates the transfer sell pressure is being priced in, with the next support at $78,500; reclaiming $81,000 above would mean this pending order's threat has been digested. Don't rush to catch the falling knife—wait until the final destination of this BTC on-chain transfer is confirmed.To pour some cold water first, I don't take this news as a positive sign that the stock token business has already been implemented. The easiest thing for the market to exaggerate is to hear "may provide" as "ready to launch," and then take "liquidity may be higher" as a result. The direction can be anticipated, but the realization is another matter. According to Bloomberg, HyperLiquid co-founder Jeff Yan has gone to London to meet some policymakers and hinted that tokenized products based on large company stocks may be provided in the future. The report also states that core contributors of the platform hold at least 238 million $HYPE tokens, worth about 20 billion USD, but this is not proof of product implementation. I am cautious for two reasons: first, meeting policymakers does not equal obtaining permission, and hinting at a product does not mean a clear launch; second, moving trading onto the chain will not magically create liquidity. Without continuous quoting and effective arbitrage, more convenient trading does not necessarily mean large trades will be easier to execute. I also admit that this path might work. If later we see clear product rules, compliance arrangements, and sustained market depth, I will adjust my judgment. But the report says third parties are very important for product supply, and even future development is "hard to predict." Counting on success prematurely now seems too hasty to me. Next, I will focus on implementation details and will not endorse the product based on the co-founder's personal holdings.SanDisk $SNDK breaks below 1000!!! I’m not surprised, I even think this drop is pretty clean. Many people were confused after seeing the earnings report: revenue doubled year-over-year, EPS $49, guidance exceeded expectations, so how could it still fall like this? Actually, the market stopped focusing on "how much is earned this quarter" a long time ago; it’s recalculating "how much you’ll be worth after 2028." In the first half of the year, NAND contract prices could rise 70% in a quarter, now they’ve dropped to 15%-20%. It’s not that prices won’t rise, they just can’t rise that fast anymore. Customer tolerance has reached its limit, and long-term contracts have locked in elasticity—downside is protected, but upside has no room for imagination. When Yangtze Memory Fab3, Samsung P5, and Kioxia expansions all come online at the end of 2027, supply and demand will loosen, and valuations will have to be discounted first. So this drop isn’t killing performance, it’s killing the narrative of "AI storage always being highly prosperous." Technically, 1000 is a psychological level and previous low; if it breaks, it will head to 950, and if it’s more severe, back to the 900-750 range; If it rebounds, 1200-1250 will be resistance first. RSI is oversold and there will be a rebound, but the trend hasn’t reversed, so don’t rush to catch the falling knife. The company hasn’t gotten worse, it’s just shifted from "growth stock pricing" back to "cyclical stock pricing." If you really want to see a turning point, watch two things—whether NAND spot prices have a second surge, and whether the floor price in long-term contract renewal terms can be raised. If these two don’t move, any rebound is a chance to reduce positions, not a signal of reversal. Earnings Highlights: ### Gaming Business: Profit elasticity is more important than revenue Q1 gaming revenue was almost flat, but profit grew significantly, mainly driven by exchange rates, tariff refunds, network services, and subscriptions; non-first-party software sales and PS5 hardware sales remain weak. Key points to watch this quarter: - **Whether gaming software revenue improves**: especially the release schedule of first-party blockbusters and third-party titles. - **PlayStation Plus subscription performance**: As of early 2026, PS Plus users are about 51.4 million, and the company is promoting user migration to higher-tier Extra and Premium plans. - **Increase in digital content proportion**: The share of PlayStation software digital sales has risen to about 78%, which helps improve software profit margins. - **Whether investment in PS6 increases**: Sony is increasing investment in the next-generation platform, which will affect short-term profit quality but does not necessarily weaken long-term expectations. If Q2 gaming revenue resumes growth while operating profit margin remains high, it will be seen as a positive signal by the market. ### Music Business: Still one of the strongest growth engines currently Sony Music performed strongly in Q1, with streaming, copyright agency, offline events, and merchandise jointly driving growth. Sony Music's operating profit for fiscal 2025 also hit a record high. Key points to watch in this earnings report: - **Whether recorded music streaming revenue maintains double-digit growth**; - **Whether music publishing/copyright agency revenue continues to expand**; -Short TRUMP (Political Premium Liquidation Day) $TRUMP hits a historic low of $1.22, down 98% from the peak! Expose the truth: Issuer earns 635 million in royalties vs 990,000 buyers losing 3.81 billion — this coin is designed to cut you! The blue tsunami is just the beginning: The chairman of the supervisory committee calls for "finding a good lawyer," November 6 briefing deadline, buying dries up after the November 22 banquet — political bearish news keeps flowing! BTC +4% while it alone drops, sector down 16%! Direction: Short. Go short directly! Market order: Enter at market price 1.27 Limit order party: Short on rebound at 1.299 Targets: Halve at 1.15 → 1.05 → clear position at 0.95 Stop loss: 1.34 (limit order at 1.40) Short! 🔥Tonight at 21:15, the US October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is about to be released, with market consensus at only +70,000 — this number itself is a fuse. It is not only a leading indicator for the Fed's rate path in December but also an immediate litmus test to see who is naked swimming in the current crypto market bulls and bears. What is truly worth cautioning is not the data itself, but the market's severely asymmetric pricing of three scenarios. First, Scenario One: Employment resilience significantly exceeds expectations. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen simultaneously, rate cut expectations are pushed back, and risk assets take the brunt. $BTC and $ETH quickly dip in the short term, the dense stop-loss zone for bulls below is cleared first, and short whale traders profit in the short term. The damage of this path lies in the fact that the market has not fully priced in the tail risk of "rate cut delay"; once triggered, the liquidation chain reaction will be more abrupt than expected. Scenario Two: Data basically meets expectations, employment mildly declines, and rate expectations remain unchanged. Macro disturbances are limited, the market continues its original rhythm, $BTC oscillates within the current range, bid and ask liquidity continue to be consumed, and large funds remain inactive. This is the easiest path to be overlooked yet has a not low probability — a boring market itself is a position trap. Scenario Three: Data is significantly below expectations. Weakening employment strengthens rate cut bets, the dollar and US Treasury yields fall, and risk assets benefit. $BTC and $ETH rally sharply in the short term, short positions above are liquidated and triggered, but short whale positions are heavy, making the rally prone to selling pressure and pullback. This path most resembles the classic structure of a "false breakout and real distribution." The core contradiction lies in: currently In the afternoon, there was another surge, but the volume on ETH's pullback made me pause. The midday report mentioned that the two coins failed to hold after testing higher. After 12:30, they surged up together again. Just as I was about to lean my judgment toward the stronger side, the next 15-minute candle pulled back. BTC first closed above 80693, then retreated to 80522; ETH fell back from around 2431 to 2425. The question from before noon—"can it hold?"—was put right back in front of me. What made me stop and take a closer look this time was the volume on the two pullback candles. BTC's pullback volume was only about one-third of the surge volume; ETH, on the other hand, had about 35% more volume on the pullback than on the surge. Volume alone can't confirm who's selling, but ETH's regained ground was traded faster and more actively. So, for now, I don't want to treat the afternoon surges of the two coins as the same kind of recovery. When BTC retraced, the volume didn't keep up; for ETH, we need to see if it can firmly hold around 2431 again. If it tests this level and falls back again, the quality of the rally will be discounted. If it holds, I'll withdraw this concern. You can't define a trend by a single candle; short-term fluctuations are fast, so be mindful of risks. $BTC $ETHBitcoin breaking above 80,000 is basically because the market sold the expectations and bought the facts, causing such a big rise. All public information is quickly absorbed by the market and reflected in Bitcoin's price. The expectation that Democrats would likely take the House in the midterm elections, and then take both chambers, was gradually absorbed by the market. Before the election ended, Bitcoin had already dropped to 75,600. After the announcement that Democrats took both chambers, with no disruptive regulatory policies introduced and all known negative factors fully priced in, the short positions bet on this were closed for profit, and funds that were waiting on the sidelines began to re-enter, causing the price to surge rapidly. I just didn't expect that after a 3,000-point rise during the election rally, it could quickly rebound from 78,800 to 81,000, bringing another big 2,000-point move. The rebound has hit a critical watershed, preparing to try one last short position. The rebound is excessive: from the low of 75,690 to the high of 81,100, the rebound has already been 5,000 points. 80,600 is exactly the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of decline. Only if volume continues to increase and breaks through the 0.618 level, around 81,500, will a new upward pattern emerge. There are large sell orders above 80,600, with concentrated sell orders, so the momentum to continue rising is insufficient. At 80,600, I will try one more short position with a stop loss at 81,100, expecting a pullback of 1,500 points. Bitcoin has become an indefinite cash flow, ultra-long growth asset, so its value will still be influenced by the US Dollar Index and Federal Reserve interest rates. The rate hike in December will more or less limit the upside. After being overbought, I still believe there will be a pullback. Three major tokens rose together, yet the liquidation tape told a different story: the losing side was the same in every case. Buyers, not sellers, absorbed the damage. That divergence deserves more attention than the headline gains. $BTC climbed 3.41% in 24 hours to $80,469.2, having touched $81,200. Its buy/sell ratio slipped to 1.54 from 1.57 four hours earlier, with roughly $2.699 billion in open positions. Over 148 minutes, 100 liquidations split into $313,000 of long orders against just $3$APP I wrote this at 6 a.m., saying that the 260 level was short squeezes, not new money coming in. Now at 325, that statement is half right. The earnings report is solid. Q3 revenue was 2.18 billion, up 55% year-over-year, EPS 4.30 exceeded expectations, Q4 guidance of 2.365 to 2.395 billion also beats the market, and the buyback authorization was increased by 3.2 billion to 3.6 billion. The stock closed at 271.75 yesterday, touched 333.8 after hours, and the token followed. Looking at the contracts, the rate was negative 10.47% this morning, now negative 0.71%, shorts are basically gone. Open interest only increased from 1.3 million to 1.55 million, 24-hour volume is 14.3 million. From 7 a.m. until now, six hours, the highest was 338, the lowest 320, and the upper shadow at 343.77 hasn’t been touched again. Within ±1%, the 50 levels of sell orders add up to less than 8,000 USD; such a pool can be pushed ten points by a single large order. The rise is driven by earnings money, not leverage money. Tonight when the US stock market opens, we’ll see if the stock recognizes this price. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 74.56 million yesterday, which is somewhat good news. But I took a closer look at the details. Fidelity's FBTC alone brought in 237 million, while the other dozen or so combined still had a net outflow of over 160 million. The total amount turned positive because one player is moving money, not a full-scale inflow. The market didn't cooperate. The 24-hour price rose from 77,306 to 81,200, with that spike happening within one hour at 11 PM last night, hitting 3 million contracts, compared to 1.48 million in the previous bar. The following thirteen bars combined totaled 3.38 million contracts, averaging 260,000 each, less than one-eleventh of that spike. Now at 80,445, the four-hour range is between 80,200 and 80,900, with open interest steady at 2.682 billion, same as this morning, and the fee rate exactly at the 0.01% benchmark, with no premium given. The ETF is buying spot, and no one is adding leverage on the contract side. The money is real, but only a portion of it. I'll acknowledge it when open interest rises as well; at this position, I won't chase. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 The boss has something to say I've been watching this news for a long time: After the midterm elections, the Democrats took both chambers, Vance attributed the Republican loss to the Iran war, the Democrats called to end the conflict, and Trump also said no more fighting for now—on November 4, Brent closed down 8.67% at 94.62 USD, WTI down 8.29% at 88.12, the war premium was wiped out in one day. My interpretation is: this cut in oil prices targets supply risk, not demand collapse. Inflation expectations eased accordingly, which for the market suppressed by hawkish pressure with September CPI at 3.7%, is like loosening a macro pressure valve—this is one of the backgrounds for BTC daring to break above 80,000 with volume. But ANZ Bank warned that the Strait of Hormuz navigation has not resumed, and October Persian Gulf exports are still lower than September, so the premium retreat is fast and the fluctuations will be quick as well. BTC current price is about 80,560, 24h high touched 81,190, up about 4.3%, previous resistance at 78,960 has turned into support. My view: above 81,000 is a dense short squeeze zone, spot ETF net inflows have not turned positive with the market yet, this bullish candle is more a combination of short squeeze and macro easing resonance, chasing highs is not cost-effective; only if the pullback to 79,000–79,500 does not break, is it a position I am willing to re-enter. The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I've also thought about using prediction markets to hedge the big coins I hold. Spot trading looks at the coin price, but prediction markets depend on whether the agreed event actually happens at expiration, which is quite different. The odds can show which side the market participants lean toward, but that doesn't mean it will actually play out that way. Especially when the coin price drops but the purchased outcome doesn't trigger, that gets a bit awkward. I don't plan to use it for now; just studying the settlement conditions is already quite a headache, and you have to keep track of both sides. Just thinking about it is annoying.