Orbit Post Sitemap
#美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 $BTC $ETH The US midterm elections have changed US-Iran expectations, and Brent crude has fallen below $95 — a congressional election is rewriting the pricing logic of the Middle East war and global oil prices. Market overview: On Wednesday, Brent crude plunged about 8.7% in a single day, closing at $94.62, WTI closed at $88.12, both hitting their lowest since August 31; on Thursday during the Asian session, Brent briefly dropped to around $93.6, with a cumulative weekly decline close to 16%. Last Friday, Brent was still near $118 at its peak. Why can an election cause oil prices to plunge? 1) Power constraints: The Democrats took both the House and Senate, and the market generally believes that Trump's room to escalate military actions against Iran is limited. Vice President Pence also attributed the Republican defeat to the Iran war; Trump stated that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran. 2) Diplomatic acceleration: Qatar has intensified mediation efforts, and Iran announced lifting the Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions for ships from India, China, Iraq, and Qatar. 3) But major differences remain: Iranian officials say the two sides are still "far from an agreement." Eurasia Group lowered the probability of the US striking Iran again from 65% to 60%, but also cut the chance of reaching an agreement from 20% to 10%, while the "stalemate" probability rose from 15% to 30%. If escalation occurs, Brent could be pushed back to the $110 to $125 range. Middle East physical crude Murban remains about $7 more expensive than Brent futures, indicating physical tightness persists. Regarding the crypto market$SNDK has been falling continuously? Why isn't it going up?
Don't simply attribute it to earnings missing expectations; the real pain point is that the market is no longer willing to assign high valuations at the peak of the cycle.
Even if the current data looks good, what capital fears most is that the high profits earned now are very likely the ceiling of this storage cycle. Once the price increase benefits fade later, the gross margin will directly decline, Gold reserves rose 59%, but XAUT hasn't surged all the way.
On one hand, fundamentals are increasing gold holdings
On the other hand, 1H is stuck below 4125, oscillating back and forth, current price 4107
Hold above 4125 then try a small long position
If it breaks below 4085 (MA20), stay short and watch
Personal opinion, not a trade call.
$XAUT #Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59% $BTC
Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-level consolidation phase
Relatively, the bulls are slightly stronger than the bears
But going long at this position carries high risk
The cost-performance ratio is low
After the price breaks through 82000 and holds steady for 1 hour
Entering a long position is relatively much better$FIL
Filecoin addresses a fundamental question in decentralized infrastructure: can distributed storage provide a dependable alternative to conventional cloud services? Its long-term opportunity depends on actual storage demand, retrieval performance, provider reliability, and competitive costs. Network capacity is only one part of the equation. Real customers paying for useful storage services are a much stronger adoption signal.$ETH – Short Signal
Bias: Bearish 📉
Entry: 2410–2415
Take Profit (TP): 2405 / 2395 / 2385
Stop Loss (SL): 2425
Resistance: 2420–2425
Support: 2405
Reason: Price is trading below short-term EMAs, showing bearish momentum. A break below 2405 could trigger further downside.
Wait for confirmation before entry. Use proper risk management.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 $RENDER
Decentralized GPU infrastructure has an interesting opportunity as demand for rendering and AI-related computing expands. Render's proposition is connecting computing demand with distributed GPU resources rather than relying entirely on centralized providers. The challenge is proving that this model can deliver competitive pricing, dependable performance, and recurring customer demand beyond the current AI narrative.The biggest visible decline isn’t coming from a crypto token.
Tokenized SanDisk exposure ($xSNDK) is down 4.31%, making it the weakest performer in this snapshot.
A useful reminder that volatility isn’t limited to crypto. Traditional tech stocks can experience sharp moves too.#SonyQ2ProfitUp45% 24-hour liquidation pain point data! Overview of BTC, ETH, and SOL long and short dual pain point positions
📊 Largest short pain points (upper resistance liquidation zones):
✅ $BTC: Current price 80155U | Short pain point 81529U, liquidation volume 82.844 million U, distance +1.68%
✅ $ETH: Current price 2412U | Short pain point 2462U, liquidation volume 44.719 million U, distance +2.03%
✅ $SOL: Current price 96.07U | Short pain point 98.29U, liquidation volume 2.415 million U, distance +2.26%
📊 Largest long pain points (lower support liquidation zones):
✅ BTC: Current price 80155U | Long pain point 79880U, liquidation volume 100 million U, distance -0.34%
✅ ETH: Current price 2412U | Long pain point 2391U, liquidation volume 36.077 million U, distance -0.88%
✅ SOL: Current price 96.07U | Long pain point 95.07U, liquidation volume 4.547 million U, distance -1.05%
Core analysis (updated according to market conditions):
Within the 24-hour cycle, BTC's largest long liquidation volume is below, only 0.34% away from the current price, very close, representing the primary short-term risk level;
There is also a significant pending liquidation volume at the upper short pain point.
ETH and SOL have balanced pain point distributions on both sides, with concentrated liquidation chips both above and below. The range has been defined.Both lines touched the edge, but one doesn't count
At 14:00, the 3.49 million contracts moved from 1312 to 1335, 6 points higher than 1328.89, with a volume difference of 310,000 and closed back at 1326, so the long position doesn't count; at 15:00, it closed bearish at 1317 with only 2.97 million contracts, 230,000 less than the short position requirement, still insufficient.
The next five highs were 1330/1332/1327/1330/1325, none returned above 1328, with volumes shrinking to 65% at 2.97/2.27/2.97/2.37/1.92 million. The gate opened, but no one passed through.
Current price 1313.04 / +1.92% / MA20 at 1308.09, 5 points below. At 20:00, 1.19 million contracts in twenty minutes closed at 1313; the 24h high and low of 1352.13 and 1270.57 were swept by the same candle at 22:00 last night.
With volume breaking below 1308 (≥2 million contracts), rebound to 1314~1317, short at 1315, stop loss at 1324, target 1290, odds 2.8;
With volume breaking above 1335 (≥3.5 million contracts), pullback to 1321~1324, long at 1323, stop loss at 1312, target 1352.13, odds 2.7.
$ZEC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Is the pre-nonfarm rally a bull celebration or a final bull trap? The "waterfall" scenario for BTC and ETH is brewing.
From the bears' perspective, the current rebound looks more like risk pricing ahead of the nonfarm report rather than a trend reversal.
As of 2026-11-05, BTC is quoted at 80,149.03 USDT, up 2.49% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,411.17 USDT, up 4.05% in 24 hours. But don't overlook: BTC's daily MACD is still a death cross structure, and the supertrend still points downward; ETH has just formed a golden cross, but the supertrend is also bearish. Both have mixed moving average arrangements, and the trend has not truly reversed.
What concerns me more is volume: BTC's daily volume is only about 0.52 times the 7-day average, and ETH's is about 0.40 times. Price is rising, but trading volume hasn't expanded accordingly. If the nonfarm data is strong and suppresses rate cut expectations, profit-taking in risk assets could quickly loosen.
ETH has already seen net outflows of large orders, and although BTC has slight net inflows, it is insufficient to prove bulls are dominant. The market has already experienced a sharp drop and rebound; if macro data fails to provide easing expectations, the rebound chips may turn into selling pressure.
My conclusion is not that a "waterfall" is inevitable, but rather: the less volume confirmation there is before the nonfarm report rally, the more volatile risk after the data release deserves caution.
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.The easiest thing to misinterpret this time might not be the rise of INJ, but the statement "ETF has already brought in institutional funds."
Nasdaq has approved Canary's Staked Injective ETF listing application, with the ticker INJC. The news sounds impressive, but approval for listing does not mean it can be bought yet; the official trading start date has not been announced, and the custody and validator allocation details have not been clarified. The entire market is rising, but only the Trump concept is falling; DJT evaporated a quarter of its value in one day.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones surged 3.03%, marking its best single-day performance since April, with the S&P and Nasdaq also rising over 1%. On the same day, DJT crashed inversely by 24.5%, closing at $4.49, with an intraday low of $4.46, the lowest closing in history.
Trading volume was about 21.7 million shares in one day, usually just four to five million shares.
Honestly, this stock has long been unrelated to business.
The company’s annual revenue is only $4.52 million, with a price-to-sales ratio of about 280 times; the stock price is just a political promissory note.
Once the Democrats took control of both chambers, the market immediately discounted the "Trump trade."
Trump himself holds about 41% of the shares; on this day, his net worth shrank by approximately $168 million, according to Forbes.
Since the beginning of the year, DJT has dropped 66%, nearly halving in the past month.
I won’t touch this kind of stock; if I were to participate, I’d wait for it to first reclaim $5.95.
That was Tuesday’s closing price; if it can’t get back there, any rebound is just a flash in the pan.
Don’t even think about bottom-fishing below the intraday low of $4.46—there’s no support below.
The next test is the earnings report after the market closes on November 9.
It doesn’t follow when the market rises, but runs fastest when it falls; this kind of excitement is just for watching. $TSLA $SPX
#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 This definitely grabs attention. ⚡ But my first reaction is: break down the incremental increase first, don’t get misled by the total holdings rhythm.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries disclosed on X, the Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin Corp., supported by the Trump family, increased its holdings by 127 $BTC, bringing the total holdings to 8,427 $BTC. I tend to see this as a short-term sentiment boost, not a trend confirmation.
The reason is straightforward: the family background easily amplifies attention; corporate accumulation can fuel bullish sentiment; but 8,427 $BTC is the cumulative holding, not all of which should be counted as new demand this time. Treating stock as increment can easily overestimate the impact of this news.
In the short term, I will first watch the volume and price support after the news. If it spikes but can’t hold, I won’t use the news as a reason to enter; if I already have a position, I will set exit conditions first. When you encounter such accumulation news, do you wait for a pullback confirmation or just ignore it?The market suddenly surged, what now? Although Bitcoin's daily chart closed with a strong bullish candle, the current price has already reached the upper range. Even if it strongly breaks above 82000, that's no reason to blindly chase the rally! A rational approach is to patiently wait for the high-low structure to break, then wait for a pullback to stabilize and confirm before entering with the trend. Pay attention to the #Bitcoin# rhythm; not blindly chasing highs is the key to winning!The midterm election drama: the market first dips out of respect, then rises out of respect.
Last night during the Asian session, it briefly dropped to $75,740, breaking below the 100-day moving average and the 0.382 retracement level. Panic sellers just handed over their chips, and the European and US sessions reversed sharply with a V-shaped recovery.
As of 3 AM on November 5 (Baghdad time), CoinGecko real-time data shows:
BTC $80,480, 24h +3.88%
ETH $2,424, 24h +6.59%, leading the mainstream gains
SOL $95.51, 24h +2.89%
On the surface, it looks like a “blue wave benefit,” but it’s more like a “certainty landing benefit” — before the election, the fear was uncertainty; after the election, no matter who wins, capital first looks for a direction to take sides.
But don’t pop the champagne just yet:
10x Research’s next observation level is $82,000; if it can’t hold here, this wave is just an oversold rebound;
If it falls back below $78,000, the V-shape is a bull trap, not a reversal.
The more critical variables lie ahead: Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report and whether ETFs can sustain net inflows. The former sets the macro sentiment, the latter determines the quality of the rebound.
So the question now isn’t "has it risen?" but:
Is this wave the start of a new upward trend, or just an oversold rebound followed by continued bottom consolidation?
$BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
On the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, the market holds its breath! Tomorrow (November 6) at 9:30 PM, the October US nonfarm employment data will be released with great impact.
📊 Preview of data undercurrents:
Small nonfarm exceeds expectations: October ADP new jobs recorded 86,000, significantly above expectations, with transportation and healthcare as the main drivers.
Job openings rebound: September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million, a four-month high.
Stalemate of low hiring + low layoffs: Layoffs remain at historic lows, but companies are cautious in hiring. How "resilient" is the labor market?
🔥 Core question: Is a December rate hike a done deal?
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has surged to nearly 80%!
September nonfarm increased by only 29,000, while October market forecast has moderately rebounded to 65,000. If tomorrow's nonfarm data significantly exceeds expectations (for example, breaking 100,000+), combined with a rebound in wage growth, it would be like adding fuel to the fire for a December rate hike; conversely, if the data remains weak, the Fed might still hold some "dovish" breathing room.
👇 Tomorrow's nonfarm, which side are you on?
Strong data, a 25bp rate hike in December is inevitable!
Moderate data, rate hike expectations remain but the market will price it in advance (good news already priced in) At the price range of 84,000, there are stacked 869,000 bitcoins.
No other price level in the entire market is more crowded than this.
Bitcoin's ledger is public: anyone can check who bought at what price.
People who bought coins in the past six months were almost all making money in early October,
because the price was 86,500.
By the end of the month, it dropped to 77,000, a nearly 10,000 drop in one month.
In thirty days, more than 60% of the same group turned into losses.
People at a loss generally do not sell.
They are waiting for one price: to return to the day they bought.
And this price mostly falls between 80,000 and 86,000.
Bitcoin is now around 80,000,
just stuck below the buying cost of this group.
In the first half of October, the price touched above 84,000 several times but never held.
So don’t guess whether it can reach 85,000.
Just watch one thing:
After breaking above 80,000, does the trading volume keep up?
If the trading volume keeps up, it means there are really people putting money to take these chips that want to be sold.
If the trading volume doesn’t keep up, it’s just a surge followed by a fall.
Resistance levels are not shouted into existence; they are bought up with funds.When oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, and money dares to take risks.
On November 4th, $BZ Brent dropped 8.7% in a single day, and $BTC bounced back from about 75.7K to 80K.
The three signals I'm watching:
1️⃣ ETF funds have returned: net inflow of about $74.6 million on November 4th, ending three consecutive days of outflows
2️⃣ Shorts were liquidated: about $378 million worth of short positions were cleared in one hour
3️⃣ 10x Research believes a rebound to around 82K is possible after overselling
The market has already started to call a ceasefire, but the ceasefire itself hasn't come yet. Friday's non-farm payrolls will provide the answer.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Market Analysis: $BTC is showing bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with price trading below the short-term EMAs and struggling to regain the $80,400–$80,500 resistance zone.
A breakdown below $80,000 could open the door toward $79,500, while a recovery above $80,500 may signal renewed bullish strength.
Sellers currently have the edge, so caution is advised until a clear reversal appears.
Will $BTC break lower or reclaim resistance?
$BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 On the surface, it looks like a legal battle between WLFI and Sun Yuchen's legal team, but what is truly being repriced underneath is who can benefit from the policy dividends. Could this lawsuit quietly rewrite the strength ranking within the altcoin sector? I've read this news twice carefully. Sun Yuchen's legal team has officially filed a motion in federal court requesting sanctions against WLFI and its legal team, citing their deep ties with the Trump family. The noise is all the back-and-forth, but calmly considered, the market is trading on another level: whether the compliance narrative still deserves a premium. The valuations projects like WLFI previously received were largely built on a "sense of policy proximity." Now the opponent has dragged this line into court, turning implicit endorsement into a public dispute. What is being priced in early is the expectation of a "sure win," while the unseen risk is that if the legal process drags on, the market-making willingness within the related ecosystem will cool off first. I understand the transmission path like this: as the dispute heats up, WLFI-related narratives come under pressure, copycat altcoin projects lose a replicable template, and risk appetite shifts slightly from "storytelling" toward "looking at cash flow and real use cases." BTC and ETH layers might instead be passive beneficiaries, as funds prefer to return to large-cap assets during uncertainty. Regarding sector strength, I tend to see this more as a signal of a divergence phase—not a start, nor a distribution yet—but the inertia of "just being related means a price rise" is loosening. On the bullish side, the legal actions themselves indicate the game is moving into the open, and clearer rules are good for long-term institutional entry. On the bearish side Beginner's Diary: This week the ETF drama feels like a palace intrigue 😂
Yesterday (11/4), the US spot BTC ETF finally turned positive, with a net inflow of $74.6 million, and the ETH ETF also brought in $53 million, breaking ETH's 7-day consecutive outflow totaling $657 million.
But the most absurd part is the "internal fight": BlackRock's $IBIT saw an outflow of $201.2 million that day, with 4 consecutive outflows totaling $935.2 million; meanwhile, Fidelity's FBTC absorbed about $237 million, single-handedly covering the big brother's hole and then some 🤡
What I learned today: When looking at ETFs, don't just look at the total amount; break it down by issuer. The money might just be "changing bowls to eat from," not necessarily exiting the market.
When you usually check ETF data, do you look at total inflows or focus on IBIT?
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress$BTC has a BTC address that has been dormant for three years recently transferring chips consecutively, totaling 1900 coins, all transferred to the market maker Wintermute.
These chips were credited on June 21, 2023, when the BTC price was 28,800, and this position was worth about 55 million USD, then completely dormant for 1227 days.
The first transfer occurred on the night of October 30, when Binance was hacked and BTC plunged more than five thousand dollars in a single day, transferring out 449.5 coins; just now, another 1208.5 coins were transferred out, worth nearly 97.3 million USD, also to this market maker.
Chips transferred to market makers are generally not simply locked up and held. The holder bought at 28,800 and sold above 80,000, profiting nearly 2.8 times, and specifically chose times of market volatility to sell in batches. Currently, out of the 1900 coins, only 242 remain in this wallet.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ZEC $ETH I see this as a recovery following sentiment, still one step away from trend confirmation.
Bitcoin $BTC remains above $80,000, with open interest increasing by only 0.3%. Reports suggest the rebound is mainly driven by short covering. I use three trend indicators: look at direction, see if bullish sentiment is supported; look at capital, forced short covering does not equal active position increase; look at sustainability, a one-day rebound is not conclusive.
The trend is the best friend; I wait for confirmation and don’t chase the hype. Are you currently using moving averages or volume-price combinations to judge whether this rebound can develop into a trend?At the same entrance, the second time only cost one-eighth of the money
04:00 That 623 lots pushed up to 559.4 (24h high), closed at 556.5, upper shadow 2.9 points failed to hold. 19:00 used 494 lots to push to 558.8, 20:00 in twenty minutes only used 70 lots to touch 559.08, missed by 0.34, the second time only spent one-eighth.
Nine bars all stuck between 551.4~556.9, volume 154~703 lots, total daily turnover 17,000 U, this is a shadow price not a trend.
Current price 558.64 / +5.10% / MA20 555.08, 3.5 points below. 556.9 is the opening price of the 16th, 18th, and 19th bars, tested three times without breaking.
Close above 559.42 with volume (≥300 lots), pull back to 558.2~558.6, long at 558.4, stop loss 556.2, target 564, odds 2.5;
Close below 556.9 with volume (≥300 lots), rebound to 557.6~558, short at 557.8, stop loss 559.6, target 553, odds 2.7.
Between 556.9~559.4 no movement, real pricing only at 22:30 when US stock market opens.
$MSFT
(Not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk) Many people think that if the Republicans lose both chambers, the crypto bill is dead. My view is the opposite: the bill has a chance to advance, but don’t treat it as purely bullish to chase the rally.
With the Democrats controlling both chambers, they will use the crypto bill to negotiate with Trump, amend the bill’s provisions, check the Trump family, and at the same time court crypto users to prepare for the next election.
The bill can pass, but the version will most likely tighten regulation, not the lenient plan the market imagines.
This morning the Democrats released news about crypto legislation, which just confirmed my judgment from yesterday afternoon. The market has already priced in the “legislative expectations” in advance, the bullishness is gradually being realized, and expectations are overextended.
Don’t chase the highs, expect a peak and stagnation, play for a pullback, and manage your stop losses well.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC $ETH Key variable tonight: October Nonfarm Payrolls (Beijing time November 6, 20:30)
The market expects October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000, higher than September's 29,000; unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%; month-on-month wages expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, year-on-year 2.9%. ADP private employment has already given a slightly stronger signal: October added 86,000, higher than the expected 69,000, showing the labor market still has resilience.
Scenario Condition Potential impact on BTC
🟢 Weaker employment (<50,000) Strengthens expectation of no rate hike in December US Treasury yields decline, BTC is expected to break through 82,000
🟡 Meets expectations (60,000-70,000) Maintains status quo Likely to fluctuate around 81,600
🔴 Stronger employment (>80,000) + 0.3% wages + Strengthens expectation of rate hike in December US Treasury yields and USD strengthen, BTC may retreat to test 79,000
Nonfarm payrolls are currently the only macro catalyst capable of breaking the "short-covering driven rebound" deadlock. If the data is weak, the rebound may upgrade from a "technical correction" to a "trend correction"; if strong, today's gains may face pressure to give back. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ On November 5th, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, pushing the rate to 4.00%. This is the first rate hike since August 2023, a small increase, but the direction has changed. What really deserves attention is not these 25 basis points, but the latter half of the statement.
Bailey said that unless the Iran war is resolved, this is unlikely to be the last rate hike. In other words, the entire interest rate path is tied to a conditional premise. And this rate hike itself "meets market expectations"—it’s not a surprise; consensus has quietly shifted.
The main market narrative over the past two years was "when will the rate cut cycle accelerate?" Now that narrative has been pulled back. The impact of rate hikes on crypto is actually straightforward: risk-free yields rise, discount rates go up, and the longest-duration assets are hit first; yields on pound assets increase, forcing carry trade funds to recalculate; US dollar liquidity tightens marginally, and risk appetite adjusts downward. Crypto is at the very end of this transmission chain and is the most sensitive.
So the judgment is not about these 25 basis points, but about the word "continue." If the geopolitical conflict remains unresolved, inflationary pressures won’t naturally ease, and the central bank will have no room to turn dovish. The pricing of assets like $BTC essentially discounts future liquidity, and the discount rate on that end is rising now.
One point worth pondering: the market previously anchored on "this is the last time," but the central bank clearly said "this is unlikely to be the last time." This expectation gap has not yet been fully digested, so volatility is very likely to remain high.Last night, I couldn't find any announcement explaining that surge. Today there is a press release, but the timing doesn't match.
Cap issued a press release on November 4, expanding on-chain credit to film and media financing (reposted by Business Insider Markets). The earliest timestamp is 11-04 16:08 UTC = Beijing time 00:08 on the 5th, which is 5 hours later than the 1H candle starting at 19:00 on OKX. Don't take this as the reason for the price increase: Cap is building digital dollars (backed by money market funds and payment stablecoins) + credit + collateral markets. Last month they were discussing AI infrastructure financing, now they've expanded to film sets.
Calculating three accounts for chasing the high:
1. The ledger hasn't caught up: TVL is $191.7 million (7 days -5.8%), cUSD supply is 64.84 million; market cap is $151.5 million, only 0.79 times the TVL.
2. Dilution 6.4 times: circulating supply 15.6%, FDV 971 million.
3. Cost: funding fee settles every 4 hours, last night it was 0.0077% at the same time, now 0.046%, a 6-fold increase—long $10,000 pays $27.6 per day, about $10,000 per year; OKX has no spot pair, 400 order book levels total $4,613, but 24-hour volume is $112.4 million, 17.5 times the open interest of 6.41 million.
Price up 30% in 7 days, ledger down 5.8% in 7 days. Are you willing to pay 6.4 times dilution for a narrative not yet recorded on the ledger? $CAP The US midterm elections have changed US-Iran expectations, Brent crude fell below $95, and risk appetite has warmed, favoring SPCX, but the market has yet to confirm a reversal. The four-hour downtrend structure remains intact; the rebound looks more like a correction rather than a turning point. The top ten buy orders are 1240 versus 1566 sell orders, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.79, sellers still dominant. The funding rate of 0.0149% is relatively neutral, with open interest at 421,000 showing no signs of panic selling. The 24-hour amplitude is $10.81, indicating clear long-short divergence. The rebound first targets resistance at 139,865; a pullback to support at 129,615 allows for light long positions with a stop loss at 127,940 and a target of 138,720; position size should not exceed 20%, and exit immediately if support breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SPCX #US Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress
#US midterm elections change US-Iran expectations, Brent falls below $95
$SPCX Tonight, the hottest is $INJ.
CoinGecko ranks it high in trending searches, with a global 24h trading volume of about $122 million and a market cap of approximately $830 million. OKX spot price is currently around 8.35 USDT, up about 8.5% from the 24h open at 7.695, with a daily range of 7.61–8.59 (data as of Beijing time 20:12).
The news is clear: Nasdaq approved the listing registration application for the Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) this Monday, planning to stake at least 90% of holdings, with custody by BitGo. It is the first Nasdaq channel for an INJ staking ETF. The actual sale still awaits the SEC's S-1 effectiveness; trading has not started yet.
My understanding: this round is more about the "channel opening" expectation, not the product being listed yet. Short-term sentiment is bullish; next, watch the S-1 progress and whether it can hold around 8.4.
$INJNonfarm payroll expectations are relatively weak: Will $BTC BTC and $ETH ETH really face a waterfall decline, or will the bears be counterattacked again?
From a bearish perspective, I say: the confidence behind this rebound is not sufficient. Approaching the nonfarm payroll release, if the data strengthens expectations for prolonged high interest rates, risk assets may face pressure first. In yesterday's public news, the market already showed a "dip and rebound" due to uncertainties related to the US midterm elections, indicating unstable sentiment.
BTC is currently around 80,146.11 USDT, with a 24-hour open at 78,174.95 USDT; the daily RSI is 57.70, not extremely overheated, but the MACD is still in a death cross state, and the super trend remains downward. Although the price stands above the 7-day moving average, it has not held above the 25-day moving average, and volume is only 0.51 times the 7-day average volume—there is a lack of transaction confirmation for the upward push.
ETH is currently around 2,412.92 USDT; the daily MACD has just formed a golden cross, but the super trend is still downward, and there is a net outflow of large funds at -3.28%. This means technical repair and capital attitude are temporarily diverging.
My bearish scenario is not an "inevitable waterfall": if the nonfarm payroll results exceed expectations and are strong, with the dollar and interest rate expectations rising, the low-volume rebound may be quickly given back; but if the data falls short of expectations, bears must also guard against a sharp pullback caused by liquidity replenishment. The key is not the expectation itself, but whether the volume, capital flow, and daily structure weaken synchronously after the data release.After reading, I noted three things, first separate "proposed" and "implemented" to avoid getting worked up when seeing the word "delay."
1. The South Korean government plans to postpone the taxation of crypto assets until 2029. The current proposal imposes a 22% tax on the portion of an individual's annual net gains exceeding 2.5 million KRW. The related proposal still requires the National Assembly to amend the Income Tax Act. The proposed loss carryforward only covers losses incurred from 2029 onward and can be deducted against taxable income until 2032; losses before the tax implementation are not counted.
2. My judgment is that this is more meaningful for individual investors in South Korea who have cross-year gains and losses and should not be directly regarded as a market positive. If the proposal passes, loss years can provide deduction space for subsequent profitable years. Compared to simply deferring tax payments, this arrangement better reflects investors' actual cross-year gains and losses.
3. I will mark on the list "old losses not applicable," so it should not be understood that all historical losses can be retroactively claimed. The government-civil working group still needs to refine taxation standards for complex activities and simplify the filing process; my guess is that if the rules are hard to understand and records are difficult to organize, then the theoretical deduction space may not be easy to utilize.
What I value more is whether the rules can truly be put into practice. What would you add as a fourth point: the boundary of historical losses, or how complex transactions should be reported?Did you guys expect this wave of Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise? Anyway, I didn't 🙂↔️, and unknowingly got trapped.
In the last 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $720 million, with $250 million liquidated on long positions and $470 million on short positions.
I still can't understand how $BTC can still go up to 80,000. Wasn't yesterday's news mostly bearish? Is this a case of bearish news turning bullish after the shoe drops? This wave trapped a lot of short positions, and liquidation data shows $270 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $250 million contributed by short positions. The huge volatility yesterday and still no profit really frustrates me.
Ethereum $ETH's rebound this time is really strong, bouncing from a low of $2,225 to a high of $2,451. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum spot still saw an outflow of about $77.09 million, while Bitcoin was slightly better with a net inflow of $209 million. In terms of funds, Ethereum hasn't seen much improvement yet, but its price has rebounded.
Right now, there's really no direction. Going long at this position isn't cost-effective, and going short risks getting trapped. Friday also has the US non-farm payroll data. Let's wait for the results before making any moves. Over fourteen hundred contestants were filtered down to just three, and the 19 consecutive wins record was the most striking benchmark in this OKX earnings forecast competition. During the break, the remaining participants all learned a lesson from the same SK Hynix market movement, where the stock surged 13.3% in a single day, completely overturning previously confident predictions. This failure forced the person holding the revival card to surrender their only chance for a do-over. This setback wore down the obsession with being right in every single round; the direction after earnings release inherently lacks stability. No matter how thorough the prior analysis, one cannot avoid moments when the market delivers an opposite answer. The foundation of the entire analysis is to gather all market earnings expectations in advance and follow the clues given by the data forward, rather than betting based on personal preferences. Luck will inevitably be involved in every choice, but it cannot sustain continuous judgments. MSFT once experienced a 4.68% volatility, reminding everyone that price boundaries during earnings windows are much wider than usual. Another kind of loss comes from misreading the rules themselves. Some focus on the snapshot mechanism, trying to continuously bet on negative options to rack up points, but ultimately gain nothing and waste a round of participation. Such mistakes have nothing to do with company performance but can quickly erode the small advantages accumulated earlier. This approach of prioritizing consensus expectations and lightly betting on one side will face challenges again when such extreme single-day jumps over 13% occur.$BTC Non-farm payroll negative expectations weigh heavily, after a stunning 24-hour reversal, will BTC and ETH experience a waterfall drop?
$BTC $ETH $STRC $TRUMP #NonFarmPayrollComing, can employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations?
The past 24 hours witnessed a super reversal completely beyond public expectations:
The market originally unanimously bet on a crash after the midterm elections, but the market instead saw a sharp V-shaped recovery. BTC first broke below 76,000, ETH fell below 2,250, spreading panic; as the Democrats took both houses and the boot dropped, the market directly reversed, BTC surged 5,460 dollars to a high of 81,196, ETH rebounded to around 2,450.
This triggered a chain reaction in the market: Saylor's STRC rose above 100 dollars for the first time in five months; the total market value of US stocks increased by 1.3 trillion dollars in a single day, the overall crypto market increased by 134 billion dollars; Schumer stated that the Democrats are pushing to end the Iran conflict, oil prices plummeted 9% to 87 dollars, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 7 months.
At the same time, risk warnings appeared simultaneously: TRUMP token plunged 20%, Democrats plan to investigate his family's crypto business; there is also news that Trump-related entities transferred 343 million dollars in BTC to Crypto.com, and Democrats are preparing to introduce legislation to strengthen SEC crypto regulation. This is why it has always been said, don't try to trade every short-term fluctuation.
Now with non-farm payrolls approaching, the market has already priced in the negative narrative of "strong employment data, delayed rate cut expectations." Top Bull: Position Update! Total position value 670 million, fully short portfolio continues to hold and earn funding fees
Monitoring this whale's perpetual contracts, BTC, ETH, SOL all short positions laid out, showing unrealized losses but continuously earning funding fee subsidies.
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ $BTC short position｜5X full position
Position: -2326.18 BTC, position value $190 million
Entry price: $76398.7
Unrealized P&L: -8.7331 million U
Funding fee income: +3.6261 million U
Margin: 37.2901 million U, liquidation price: $137805.05
✅ $ETH short position｜5X full position
Position: -87,500 ETH, position value $210 million
Entry price: $2322.71
Unrealized P&L: -8.556 million U
Funding fee income: +4.627 million U
Margin: 42.3583 million U, liquidation price: $3940.83
✅ $SOL short position｜7X full position
Position: -684,800 SOL, position value $64.804 million
Entry price: $94.3346
Unrealized P&L: -203,700 U
Funding fee income: +3.9816 million U
Margin: 9.2577 million U, liquidation price: $285.99The same non-farm payroll report sparks two heated debates with two different scenarios—Binance is asking "Is there still a chance for a rate cut?" while Europe and the US are asking "Will the December rate hike be reinforced?" BTC has first bounced back to around 80,200.
The market thinks: with the election settled, oil prices falling, and crypto turning green again, the macro narrative is unified.
In reality: ADP private employment increased by +86,000, exceeding expectations; ISM services employment at 51.4 continues to expand; but the non-farm payroll expectation is only about +60,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, to be released tomorrow at 21:30 Beijing time. The green candle fills the "narrative gap," not the "rate cut/hike is sealed."
My view: don’t treat above 80,000 as confirmation of a rate cut rally yet. If non-farm payrolls are significantly above 60,000 and unemployment doesn’t rise, rate hike expectations may be reinforced, making 80,000 a fragile support; if significantly below 60,000, then we can talk about risk appetite warming up again. The election good news is already priced in; the switch depends on data deviation direction, not slogans.
Takeaways:
1) Watch tomorrow at 21:30 non-farm payrolls vs. the expected +60,000/unemployment rate 4.2% deviation
2) Is 80,000 a narrative support or data support—don’t add positions based on feelings before data
3) The split in hot debates on the same topic = weak consensus, volatility will increase
Do you stand with "rate hike expectations will be reinforced" or "there’s still a chance for a rate cut"?
$BTC $ETH
#NonFarmPayrollsAreComing, can employment data reinforce December rate hike expectations?Non-farm downside expectations loom, will BTC and ETH really waterfall?
As the non-farm payroll approaches, the market has already started trading the narrative of "stronger data, suppressed rate cut expectations." If employment and wage data exceed expectations, the rise in US Treasury yields and the dollar could suppress risk appetite, potentially amplifying BTC and ETH volatility; however, I would not equate this directly to a waterfall decline. If expectations have been priced in advance, the reverse volatility after the data release is also worth watching.
On the charts, BTC is currently quoted at 80228.32 USDT, up from 78327.57 USDT 24 hours ago; ETH is currently at 2417.79 USDT, up from 2325.04 USDT 24 hours ago. BTC's daily MACD remains in a death cross, the super trend is at 82920.26 USDT and trending downward, with the 7-day moving average at 78329.57 USDT and the 25-day moving average at 80623.20 USDT forming a near-term tug of war. ETH has just formed a MACD golden cross, standing above the 7-day and 25-day moving averages, but the RSI is 69.95, approaching an overbought zone in the short term.
BTC's daily volume is only 0.51 times the 7-day average volume, ETH's is 0.39 times. If the rebound after the data release lacks volume and prices fall back below the short-term moving averages, the weak structure will be more convincing; conversely, if prices hold with volume amid high volatility, the bears' "waterfall scenario" will need to be reconsidered. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？
"AAOI 800G Optical Module Performance Reconciliation"
AI hardware has been hyped for so long, everyone has been focusing on computing power cards, but the high-speed optical modules responsible for data center interconnection are now starting to deliver results.
US stock AAOI is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings after market close on November 5, with official revenue expectations between $255 million and $290 million.
How many 800G high-speed optical modules have actually shipped, and whether the profit margin can hold up, will be revealed immediately after the earnings report. $BTC Today I saw many brothers saying "🐮 is back," so Beichen wants to share a personal view.
First of all, I personally think the bull is not back yet, and the reason is simple. This wave of rise is actually a rebound after bad news has settled. Previously, midterm election results, crypto regulatory expectations, Binance security incidents, and other negative factors continuously impacted the market. $BTC once dropped to around 75,000, and $ETH also followed with a significant pullback.
After the market releases concentrated panic, selling pressure naturally eases. Moreover, yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a renewed inflow of about $74.6 million, ending three consecutive days of net outflows. A large number of shorts were liquidated, and short covering further amplified the upward momentum.
A short-term rebound is possible, but it's still too early to call the bull 🐮 back. Currently, the outlook remains bearish. In the next article, Beichen will discuss short strategies for Bitcoin and Ethereum!
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #How far is Oklo's nuclear power layout from commercialization? This company is about to release its Q3 earnings report before the US market opens on November 6. What are they doing? Small modular nuclear reactors, specifically aimed at powering those AI data centers that are ravenous for energy. In theory, this sector is absolutely a hot trend right now, but if you look at the market, the tokenized stock OKLO has dropped 1.18%, with capital clearly rushing to hedge before the earnings report. My personal view is: the direction is definitely right, but the reality is extremely harsh. This company is basically "drawing cakes to satisfy hunger." Look at the truth that smart people in the community have pointed out: its commercialization is stuck dead in the water due to regulatory approval not granted and technology not fully validated. Even more painfully, it currently has no electricity revenue at all, relying on the 2028 Aurora project to generate income, and in the short term can only survive by selling some isotopes to stay afloat. Although institutions are bullish on nuclear energy by speculating on uranium prices, they are very cautious about Oklo's continued losses and have even lowered the target price. This means that no matter how many letters of intent you have, without real cash income, in the eyes of the capital market, you are a ticking time bomb. What impact does this have? In the short term, this is a signal of cooling sentiment. The lack of power for AI data centers is a hard fact, but if a star company like Oklo disappoints in its earnings report, it will directly hit the market's feverish expectations for AI infrastructure construction. When this cold wind blows into the crypto space, those altcoins and DePIN projects riding the "computing power + energy" concept will most likely get hit as well. But looking at the medium to long term, this is precisely the de-centralThe pre-market is mostly in the green, except for one name that is stuck below its issue price. $SPCX is down 5% pre-market, and the $135 issue price looks like it won't hold — this is not the usual daily fluctuation of a small stock, but a concentrated market pricing of political risk related to Musk. What’s even more intriguing is the timing. With the Democrats sweeping both chambers, traders' first reaction is not to celebrate policy implementation, but to start revaluing government contracts tied to Musk’s assets. $Tesla and $SpaceX, which have long relied on federal orders and policy benefits, are suddenly under Congress’s magnifying glass. The market’s concern is not the investigation itself, but the contract renegotiations, subsidy reviews, and public pressure that investigations bring — these are the real threats. The public may be underestimating the length of this transmission chain. Most only see $SPCX breaking below issue price as a single point, but the real signal is that political risk is upgrading from "personal reputation" to "priceable asset discount." When an entrepreneur’s political stance starts to affect the predictability of government contracts, the capital market reacts ahead of news headlines. The 5% pre-market drop in $SPCX is a sample of this early reaction — it’s not trading performance, but trading uncertainty. A few days ago, Trump even said that if the Democrats take Congress, he would first pardon Musk. That statement now sounds more like a warning than a joke. The premise of a pardon is that someone must be held accountable, and the market has already voted with its feet, pricing in this possibility. To confirm whether this argument holds, look at two$1.16 billion ran through in three days, and on the fourth day, Fidelity alone pulled back $237 million
US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4
Ending three consecutive outflows since October 30: -$643 million, -$399 million, -$116 million
The divergence is the highlight: Fidelity FBTC +$237 million in a single day
ARKB +$19.9 million, BITB +$15.2 million, BlackRock IBIT reversed with -$201 million
Still a net outflow of $827 million over 7 days, the fourth day only made up a small fraction
Bitcoin also pulled back from a seven-week low below $76,000
On November 5, it stood above $80,000, rising 3.55% intraday to $80,317
I think this is not institutions returning, but money changing hands between issuers
The invalidation point is if FBTC turns net outflow tomorrow, or if Bitcoin's daily close falls back below $76,000
Which side are you on: Is Fidelity leading the inflow a reversal signal, or does IBIT continuing to run away count?
$FBTC $IBIT
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元
The U.S. midterm elections change global oil prices! $95 breached, is the real storm just beginning?
Brent crude oil fell below $95. This time, the market is trading not just oil, but the U.S. political landscape and the direction of the Middle East war!
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out: the Democratic Party took control of both chambers of Congress, putting greater political pressure on the Trump administration. The previously sustained rise in oil prices due to U.S.-Iran conflicts has now seen new expectations for a turnaround.
On November 4, Brent crude plunged 8.7% in a single day, closing at $94.62, marking a new low in over two months.
But I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this oil price drop is not how much it fell, but that the market is beginning to reprice geopolitical risks.
If U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress and Middle East oil supply is restored, the previously accumulated risk premium could further dissipate.
But don’t rush to think that oil prices have entered a long-term bear market. The war has not truly ended, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz still exist.
My judgment is: the market is now trading on expectations of peace, not the reality of peace.
With $95 breached, is this the start of a new round of oil price declines, or a concentrated release of geopolitical risk premium?In ten minutes, the Bank of England will simultaneously release the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. Having all three documents drop in the same minute is not the usual rhythm; typically, the authorities want the direction, divergences, and medium-term path to be seen together rather than leaving the market to guess.
The weight of the three documents differs. The interest rate decision sets the current price and can be traded immediately; the meeting minutes reveal the internal committee divergences, with the size of the divergence determining whether there will be further changes next time; the monetary policy report provides the medium-term assumptions, serving as an anchor for forward pricing. Short-term fluctuations and medium-to-long-term expectations are re-evaluated simultaneously.
The transmission is straightforward. First, the pound and UK government bond yields move, then the effect spills over through the dollar and global risk appetite. $BTC is currently traded as a liquidity asset and is most sensitive to this spillover; $ETH has greater elasticity, so its volatility is amplified; highly volatile assets like $SOL tend to react even more extremely when liquidity expectations change.
My judgment is: the direction is not at the moment of the announcement but at the closing price of the first hour after the release. Since the three types of information are released together, the initial reaction is likely to be wrong because algorithms and emotions move first, and humans adjust later. Those chasing the first spike usually just provide liquidity for others.
Here is a question worth pondering: Does compressing the release of the three documents into the same moment reduce uncertainty, or does it create a more concentrated pricing event?Oh no, ETFs have started net inflows!
After the midterm elections settled, the market shifted from risk-off selling to a mild return following the elimination of uncertainty.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
On November 4, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $74.6 million, and ETH net inflow of $53 million, ending the continuous outflows around the election period.
My judgment is that this is positive, but not a confirmation of a trend.
The reasons are simple:
First, the single-day scale is small; over the past 5 trading days, BTC ETFs still had a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion, indicating a mild return rather than strong buying;
Second, there is obvious rotation of funds, with large inflows into FBTC while IBIT saw large outflows, indicating internal switching rather than broad net buying;
Third, although election uncertainty has been removed, with the Democrats controlling Congress, the path for crypto regulation remains uncertain, so institutions will not significantly increase positions based on single-day data.
This looks more like a tentative return after a pause in selling; trend reversal still requires verification by continuous net inflows over multiple days.
$BTC Trend forecast:
In the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate between 78,000 and 82,000; if ETF inflows continue for two consecutive days, it may test 82,500; if outflows resume, it will retest support at 76,500–77,000.
Trading advice:
Spot holders can continue to hold; contracts can be lightly shorted near 81,500 with a stop loss at 82,500. AI position liquidation may be nearing its end, and hedge funds might start buying again at this point
In October, hedge funds significantly reduced risk and focused on liquidating AI positions, which actually improved the positioning environment for U.S. stocks, especially the AI sector, ahead of year-end. If AI stocks gradually stabilize in November and retail investors continue buying equity funds, hedge funds may begin to increase AI exposure again starting from the end of November. However, long-term capital allocation to bonds may still limit further declines in yields, and subsequent interest rate drops might rely more on momentum and other speculative funds to drive them. (JPMorgan) #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $SOL US Midterm Elections: What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?
As the US midterm elections approach, market attention is once again focused on the potential impact of this event on Bitcoin. According to historical data, since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen in the year following all 19 midterm elections, with an average increase of 15.1%. Similarly, Bitcoin's price has also increased one year after the last three complete midterm election cycles, with an average gain of about 54%. However, investors should understand that these figures conceal significant risks.
According to analysis by Deep Tide TechFlow, Bitcoin's performance this year has broken the pattern of the previous three midterm elections. Its current price is above the 200-day moving average, indicating that its long-term trend remains upward. However, it is worth noting that historical data shows Bitcoin often experiences a short-term decline immediately after elections, which means investors may face potential losses in the weeks following the vote.
With the market generally expecting Congress to be controlled by different parties, regulatory policies will have a major impact on the crypto industry. The progress of the CLARITY Act is very uncertain. If future congressional legislation on the crypto industry is not proactive, it could lead to a prolonged state of regulatory uncertainty for the sector. This uncertainty may not only suppress investors' risk appetite but also delay the market's recovery process.The ETF ran for three days, but the coin price actually stood up — this drama is even more entertaining than the midterm elections themselves.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $115.6 million on Tuesday, adding to $398.6 million on Monday and $643.2 million on October 30, totaling $1.157 billion over three days (Farside data, announced November 4).
Ethereum wasn’t idle either: $85.3 million outflow on Tuesday, totaling $380.7 million over three days, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for the majority on Tuesday.
But the price didn’t cooperate with the script: BTC is currently around $77,946, up 1.55% in 24 hours; ETH is about $2,300, up 1.97% (CoinGecko real-time verification).
I think these three days of ETF activity look more like profit-taking plus risk aversion, rather than a collective institutional sell-off — if confidence had truly collapsed, prices wouldn’t have V-shaped back after the midterm election results.
Of course, don’t rush to call a reversal until outflows stop; the US October jobs report on November 6 is the next hurdle.
The invalidation condition is clear: if BTC falls back below the intraday low of $75,736, this "stabilization" theory is void.
Which side are you betting on: ETF outflows stopping means the coin price is truly stable, or price rises first and funds follow?
$BTC $ETH
#ETFfundflows #BitcoinEthereum