诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Waller turned hawkish, raising interest rates by 50 basis points, even harsher than expected!
The market originally thought a rate hike in December was highly likely, at most a 25% increase, but Waller said: if the CPI increase is around 0.3% or higher, the Fed might need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December. Once this statement came out, the crypto community started to panic again!
$BTC Daily chart: Around 73,000 is the densest liquidation zone for bulls, and the price is already close. With a confirmed rate hike, this cluster will be cleared first; below that is a short zone, with a moderate cluster only at 71,000, and further down at 66,000 there are only sporadic buy orders.
In terms of timing, this expectation is suppressing the market before December. If tonight's CPI is really hot, it will directly trigger the 73,000 level.
My stance is also bearish. If 73,000 breaks, then look at 68,000-70,000 first, and wait until it's cleared before making further moves. Hold steady on spot positions, but reduce leverage on contracts, and close positions if necessary, as high leverage carries liquidation risk. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
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That morning's spike caught many people off guard. The short position held by "Endure Eagle" just happened to be right on the edge.
His $ETH short with 10x leverage took a hit of over 40%, pocketing 710,000 dollars. He opened the short in early November and only closed it after the flash crash on the 9th, capturing the entire downtrend.
Looking at the market, $BTC dropped nearly 3% in 15 minutes, spiking down to 73,500, and over 700 million dollars worth of long positions were liquidated within an hour. $ETH was even worse, with its rate crashing over 4% simultaneously, hitting a new low for September.
On one side, Endure Eagle pocketed nearly 900,000 dollars, while on the other, long positions were wiped out for over 700 million. Without comparison, there's no pain.
But I'm not envious, I'm fearful. I previously blew my account trading contracts, and since then I've only touched spot trading. Endure Eagle's profit comes from anticipating the drop early, holding on, and precise timing—missing any one of these means no gain.
Ordinary people see others making big profits on shorts and are most likely to flip and bottom-fish with longs, becoming one of those billion-dollar liquidations.
Winning once in this contract game relies on knowledge; winning ten times relies on luck.
But when a flash crash wipes out all the longs, are you sure you won't be the next one caught in the spike?
$OKB A couple of days ago, it was the only token in the pool with a positive fee rate. Yesterday, the trend reversed, shorts started paying, and a batch of active short sellers came in.
The fee rate directly dropped to negative 0.0186%, the most negative in the entire pool. This signal is more dramatic than a 13-point drop. The shift from longs paying fees to shorts paying fees indicates real money is actively pressing it.
This afternoon, all 8 tokenized stocks have been launched. Yesterday, only 4 of them were listed; today, the remaining four were listed in the same time slot. This positive narrative has been fully released today, but the market hasn’t shown any gains, indicating a lack of market acceptance.
OKX and the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company ICE are running this tokenized US stock platform, relying on the SEC’s temporary exemption rules to do so. If a company doesn’t want its stock on this platform, it must actively submit an objection; no objection means it can be listed.
Initially, 62 star companies were selected as the first batch of eligible tokens. Of these, 56 companies objected, and later 11 companies not on the list also objected, totaling 67 objections. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and JPMorgan Chase are all among them.
Originally, 6 companies had not expressed their stance; now only Robinhood has spoken up. As a new exchange focusing on tokenized US stocks, it cannot get stocks from mainstream major companies and only has crypto-related tokens to support it, making it still very challenging to grow.
My view: The fee rate turning negative indicates active shorts are not done yet. Wait for volume to pick up and a bottom between 88 and 90 before reassessing. Stop loss at 84.5, initial target at 100. Short term likely to remain weak. #美股探索代币化与全天候交易
+132.07 USDT
+34.55%Snapshot at 11 Nov 2026, 11:30
Last night the CPI data came out, and a rebound this week is basically out of the question.
The previous drop was due to leverage being wiped out, but starting last night it's about interest rates being repriced. The month-on-month CPI was 0.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.3%.
Once the news broke, the 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 18 basis points to 4.73%, the Nasdaq only fell 0.74%, crypto dropped 2%-4%, and the gap between stocks and crypto widened again. This time, the hit was to crypto's own leverage and liquidity.
The fear and greed index is now around 25, and some in the market are already discussing a 50 basis point rate hike instead of 25. With sentiment this cold, I actually feel the shoe is about to drop.
$BTC indeed broke below the 73,000 range as I predicted, hitting a low of 72,695 last night, now at 73,848. Until it climbs back above 76,000, it will remain weak and volatile.
This wave of negative news has basically been fully released. Earlier, it crushed high-leverage longs; last night's CPI swept away the last batch. On-chain liquidations are done, what's left are spot holders holding tight.
The market has already priced in rate cuts through the recent declines; when the rate hike actually lands, there will be little volatility because it's already been digested. A fear and greed index of 25 is a typical panic zone; historically, such levels are often the start of a slow bull run rather than the end.
My own base position is basically full now. I'm just waiting for Bitcoin to climb back above 76,000 to confirm strength. Holding spot firmly, after this round of washout, a slow bull run should begin. #美国10月整体与核心CPI双超预期
Bitmine announced its recent holdings data today, showing that it has bought a total of 6.07 million $ETH, which accounts for 5% of Ethereum's total supply.
The disappearance of the largest buy orders—does this mean ETH has entered its darkest hour?
I don't think so:
Bitmine started buying ETH from June last year, and the accumulation speed has been slowing down. In the past three weeks, it has only been buying about 10,000 ETH per week.
Meanwhile, ETH's recent average daily trading volume is 35 billion. A daily buy order of 20 million accounts for only 0.05%, so the impact is limited.
On the contrary, I think the recent panic caused by the drying up of buy orders, combined with a bunch of macroeconomic negative factors, has created an oversold opportunity for Ethereum.
+510.48 USDT
+19.69%Snapshot at 10 Nov 2026, 22:59
I've seen many people say that Brother Maji has given up on $ETH, abandoned the long position, is afraid to go long, and has cleared his positions to exit Hyperliquid.
Actually, that's not true; people misunderstood. He hasn't exited the market but transferred his funds to Papertrade, where you can mine by losing money 😂
Since Brother Maji entered Hyperliquid last May, he has been all-in with high leverage on ETH, but he hit the bear market from last October until now and has lost 37.56 million USD.
Maybe he figured it out: instead of pure losses, why not earn some mining interest and airdrops through losses?
But I think a slow bull market is about to come 😂 I've basically maxed out my positions. Switching to a questionable platform now, I don't know if it's a blessing or a curse.
$ETH was the main stage for the weekend's liquidation wave, with $507 million liquidated in 24 hours, more than $BTC's $324 million. After a round of chip structure cleanup, it's actually healthier, and when the bull market comes, it can rise more than 99% of coins.
Of course, it's not the time for a big bull yet. BTC is stuck below 75,000, with MA7 (76,000) and MA25 (79,000) pressing down as resistance. RSI at 54 shows no momentum, and 73,000 is the iron bottom for the past two months. Until it breaks back above 76,000, it's weak consolidation, no reversal yet.
BTCSpot
+531.53 USDT
+20.50%Today, putting UNI, HYPE, and OKB together, all have positive catalysts, so why is there no positive feedback in the market?
$UNI fell the hardest last night, dropping 6 points, and only rebounded 1.6 points this morning. Bitwise submitted 11 strategy ETFs to the SEC, and this is the first time it has been included in this basket, meaning it has moved one step from governance tokens to configurable assets. But the market performance is poor, the price is stuck around $7, and the direction is unclear. The fee rate is at the limit, indicating crowded longs; once there is any disturbance, it’s easy to trigger a concentrated sell-off.
$HYPE rose last week but gave all gains back this week. Elysium went live yesterday, and on the first day, the only supported applications were Pump.fun and Fomo; the order book reading function will take another four weeks. Institutional short positions have unrealized profits exceeding ten million, and buying interest is really gone. Without panic selling, this kind of drop won’t have a V-shaped rebound. The technology is indeed launched, but the product hasn’t reached the stage to change valuation yet.
$OKB In the afternoon, OKX launched four new tokenized stock markets, marking OKX’s first real volume push in the tokenized stock track. The product line is developing in the most imaginative direction, yet it’s falling, down over 11 points in seven days. The opening was lively but OKB didn’t rise, indicating this narrative has already been priced in by the market.
My view: The positive news from the three is all slow-moving variables; it takes months from ETF filing to approval, and new listings also take time to transmit value.
$ZEC upgrade has truly landed! But why did the price drop instead of rising?
This NU7 upgrade brings significant technical improvements: block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, network throughput increased to 6.6 TPS; wallet synchronization requires loading less data, making it more user-friendly. However, the coin price dropped to around 1160.
The reason is the upgrade changed the fee distribution: 60% of the fees must be saved and will only be released to miners in 2031, so miners currently only receive 40%.
Although on-chain usage data looks good, miners’ immediate income has directly decreased. Plus, privacy coins have always faced compliance restrictions, setting a ceiling, so despite the positive upgrade, the market doesn’t respond favorably.
My judgment: ZEC has achieved faster privacy, but technical upgrades and real buying pressure are always separate matters. If 1160 doesn’t hold, I expect a drop back to 1050.
US tech stocks surged yesterday, but BTC didn't even touch back its key integer level. This kind of market divergence is the most direct signal. Why are traditional risk assets rising while crypto is still oscillating?
$BTC The US stock rebound isn't followed by Bitcoin due to the chronic bleeding of ETFs. Last week, spot ETFs led by IBIT saw a net outflow of about $1.282 billion. Tonight at 21:30 before the CPI release, the market is betting along the 75,000 line and interest rate hike expectations. A hot CPI reading would push the December rate hike expectation above 80%, putting immediate pressure on 75,000 again.
$ETH Even weaker than BTC, spot ETFs have had net outflows for eight consecutive trading days totaling $640 million, and ETH/BTC has fallen to its lowest since mid-August. My view: high beta has turned into downward elasticity here; if it can't close above 2300, I see weakness. Only a break above 2346 would trigger $932 million short liquidations.
$SOL Grinding around 86, Jump Crypto has staked 450,000 tokens on-chain as a long-term signal, but the same address transferring 1.223 million tokens into Coinbase Prime is a looming sell pressure, and fees have turned negative. My judgment: after the non-farm payroll and CPI events pass, it should lead the rally.
Before CPI, US stocks rising while BTC doesn't follow is itself the most honest indicator of selling pressure.
$AVAX has been a bit awkward these past couple of days. The New York Stock Exchange has chosen it as the settlement layer for its tokenized stock trading platform, yet the coin price hasn't really risen much, and many people have been asking me what's going on.
Let me first clarify what this coin is for: it is an L1 public chain targeting RWA institutions. Unlike Ethereum, it is specifically designed to issue customized chains for institutions, with compliance where needed and speed where needed. Its job is to move government bonds, stocks, and stablecoins onto the chain.
Yesterday, after the news broke, the coin price just touched around 9 USD. Considering that Goldman Sachs' hundred-billion-dollar US Treasury fund and Japan's tens-of-billions securities have been moved onto it, the on-chain RWA has genuinely reached a scale of 1.7 billion USD.
So, is it a good project? My judgment: fundamentally, it is competitive among L1s and truly has scenarios in use. But there is a pitfall that is easily overlooked: the NYSE used its technology to build a private chain for itself, and AVAX only collects some validation fees; the coin itself doesn't get much benefit. Even if the chain is lively, it doesn't mean holding this coin will take off.
Is it worth buying? The coin has dropped more than 90% from its peak and is indeed at a cycle bottom now. The 1.7 billion USD RWA backing it is more solid than the pure bubble in 2021. The problem is that value capture hasn't happened; it's a story that sounds good but has weak realization. My personal view is that below 7 USD is suitable for laying low, and 8-9 USD is the news premium zone.
When will it rise? Either the burn or fee return mechanism really kicks in, or the RWA narrative heats up again and the overall market sentiment returns. Relying on just one news hype won't last more than a few days. #纽交所选定Avalanche，推进代币化证券结算
Will the CPI directly disrupt the rhythm of the crypto market? The data at 21:30 tonight is very critical. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
The market expects the CPI month-on-month to be +0.3%, core +0.2%. Currently, the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has reached 80%. Because of last year's government shutdown, the focus tonight is on the month-on-month data.
My personal judgment is that the scenario of meeting expectations has the highest probability. If the data aligns with expectations, the probability of a rate hike will likely remain around 80%. $BTC could easily first spike down to shake out the bulls, then rally to sweep out the shorts, oscillating back and forth.
If the core month-on-month is ≥0.4%, the rate hike expectation could surge to over 90%, even pricing in another hike next year, which would be bearish for crypto.
Only if the core is ≤0.2%, ideally around 0.1%, will it shake the December rate hike expectations and be bullish for the market.
Before this data, it is not suitable to heavily bet on a one-sided position; spike moves can easily trigger leveraged liquidations. Wait for the data to land before deciding the direction.
