陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Last night the Nasdaq had a big rebound, but $BTC did not follow. My understanding is that it's a matter of timing.
1. At the start, BTC bulls showed strong resistance, refusing a deep pullback, but it was still dragged down by the US stock market;
2. So when the US stock market, especially certain tech stocks, have already fallen to a good value, naturally the priority for capital purchases will be higher than Bitcoin.
Since the timing has clearly changed, we should then deduce the subsequent trend according to the possibly changed timing;
Personally, I lean towards the black line scenario, because currently:
1. The panic sentiment in the US stock market has been fully released;
2. Oil prices are declining;
3. There is no escalation between the US and Iran.
All the negative factors visible in the market have already been realized.
From a technical perspective:
1. Bitcoin has reached a key support level;
2. The liquidity for bulls below has just been obtained.
Therefore, I believe it is unlikely to continue dropping from this position. The most probable movement is some consolidation followed by a rebound, although it might only be a rebound.
RT @qinbafrank: Three envoys are heading to the Middle East together; recently China has really been stepping up its efforts in the Middle East situation. The core purpose is exactly what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced: to urge peace talks, promote negotiations, and ease tensions.…
1. Previously, Bitcoin stubbornly held at 80,000, and I said it was insanely strong;
2. Later, I said as long as Bitcoin stays above 76,000, it’s a strong consolidation;
Now Bitcoin has fallen below 76,000, so it has shifted from strong to weak;
Let me explain what I understand by strong and weak:
Strong means indicators are showing bullish divergence, the market leverage is too high, the position is too heavy, so it has to come back to blow up high-leverage positions, unload some, then continue the rally and dance;
What does it mean to shift from strong to weak? Simply put, previously the bulls and bears were not balanced, bulls had the advantage, but now bulls and bears have reached a balanced contest of power; I have to say, during this period, the environment (the overall market conditions) favors the bears, and apart from the steadfast holders, bulls have no other advantage.
If previously Bitcoin was ridiculously strong, the preset scenario was a fast push with no chance to get on board; now the preset scenario can’t be a fast push anymore, since it has started to oscillate, so let it oscillate, and the adjustment period might be longer than we imagined.
1. Bears are impressive, previously they used oil as an excuse, now that oil prices are falling, they use the US dollar as an excuse;
2. We can only wait for the US stock market to stabilize.
3. In the short term, I think there will be another rebound. The Fibonacci 0.5 level itself is the boundary between strong and weak. If it goes lower, a pullback will be painful, and many bulls will be wiped out by the bear consensus; moreover, there is also support from the daily SMA200 moving average.
From the perspective of the adjustment structure (if this is an adjustment), I believe the main trend has basically completed:
1. The first drop was from 87 to 80, then a rebound; the second drop was from 85 to 73.5;
2. ① The second drop has already exceeded a 1:1 ratio of the first drop, currently the wick reached 1.382, if it falls further to 1.618, it would be broken; ② The wick at 73.5 broke the bottom of wave 4 of the previous rise, which should have triggered a large number of stop-loss orders.
The adjustment pattern has been completed, and the purpose of the adjustment (liquidating leverage, shaking out floating positions) has been achieved. If this is an adjustment, it should be nearing its end.
陈桂林谈交易
1. A while ago, I saw $BTC was ridiculously strong and thought this round wouldn't pull back to the daily SMA200 level, but unexpectedly, it did, albeit late (see Figure 1);
Now Bitcoin has reached the strength-weakness dividing line (support):
1. The price of the SMA200 today is 73153;
2. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement price from the 57–87 segment rise is 72581.
If Bitcoin falls below this level, it objectively means weakness.
2. As for that beast $ETH, I feel it’s an M pattern, really can’t help but curse it (see Figure 2)
2100–2800 is the consolidation zone; below 2100 is a bear market, above 2800 is a bull market.
