夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
全市场分析，不受局限 提供真正有价值的投资建议
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I have always been committed to sharing trading knowledge to help everyone avoid high-risk trades and investment scams. All guidance is completely free, with no charges. I do not belong to any company, organization, or platform, have no partners, no groups, and will never ask anyone to transfer money to me.
I always advise everyone to keep their money in their own accounts, learn independently, and make their own judgments. When the market declines, you can focus on coins with real projects and long-term value, buy rationally, and sell at the right time after reaching profit targets.
Sharing knowledge is done out of goodwill, with no expectation of return. Protecting your own funds is more important than anything else.
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What supplements do super individuals need?
(Deep research version)
My combination is:
Anti-aging + High energy + Improve sleep quality + Build lean muscle strength
Basic foundation:
High-dose multivitamins
Fish oil Omega-3
D3 + K2
Nervous system & sleep:
Magnesium glycine
Anti-aging and antioxidant:
GlyNAC (NAC + Glycine) + Ergothioneine
Mitochondria & energy:
Coenzyme Q10 + PQQ
Brain & physical performance:
Creatine 5g
Core logic: supplement the foundation → antioxidant → repair mitochondria → enhance long-term energy and performance.
Also suitable for crypto community
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In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
The reason past financial crises were easily brewed was largely due to slow information dissemination. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency meant that information was held by only a few for a long time. Many risks could accumulate within the system for years, while most market participants remained unaware. By the time the problems truly surfaced, the market often had no time to react, panic spread rapidly, and it eventually evolved into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information allow information to spread almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many localized risks are reacted to by the market before they have a chance to expand. From this perspective, the traditional type of financial crisis that relies on delayed information accumulation has indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not equal more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news mix, emotions spread faster, and market reactions are often amplified. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contractions occur more frequently in modern markets. The early stage of the 2020 pandemic is a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers within just one month. It was not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but that the market quickly formed a consensus panic under intensive information shocks. When everyone reacts in the same way simultaneously, market volatility is extremely amplified. A deeper problem actually comes from the increasing complexity of the financial system itself. The 2008 financial cri
Bitcoin drops to $73,000, is the final drop not over yet?
BTC previously rebounded to $81,000, but has now fallen back to around $73,000, a nearly 10% pullback in a short time.
What’s more notable is that the US Bitcoin spot ETF has recently seen continuous net outflows, indicating the market buying pressure remains weak.
I previously thought the last drop might occur near $73,500, but now the price has fallen further, showing the market has not yet completed bottoming.
Currently, $73,000 can no longer be considered a reliable support.
If it fails to quickly recover to $75,000, I will start to be cautious about BTC further testing $70,000 or even $68,000.
However, after continuous declines, the market could also see a sharp rebound at any time.
If BTC can climb back above $76,000, there will be a short-term chance to challenge $78,000–$80,000 again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The latest US CPI has been released, and the result once again exceeded market expectations.
The October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.3%.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining the same increase for three consecutive months.
Among them, food prices rose 0.5%, housing costs rose 0.3%, and energy prices rose 0.7%.
The most troublesome aspect of this data is that US inflation has yet to show a clear cooling.
The market has basically priced in another rate hike in December and has even started discussing the possibility of a 50 basis point hike.
However, as of the morning of November 10, the market's probability pricing for a 50 basis point hike remains only about 15%.
If employment data continues to be strong, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to ease monetary policy.
This is obviously not good news for US tech stocks, which are already overvalued, and for the liquidity-dependent crypto market. $QQQ $NVDA $XAU
The U.S. stock market just showed a strong rebound yesterday, but started to decline again today.
On November 10, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, with the Nasdaq falling about 1.25% intraday and the S&P 500 down about 0.84%.
NVIDIA once plunged more than 5%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.99%.
Over the past two years, AI tech stocks' valuations have been based on sustained capital expenditure growth and future profit expectations.
But if U.S. interest rates remain high, investors will need to recalculate the value of these companies' future cash flows.
Especially NVIDIA faces controversies within the company itself, with its stock price affected by both market conditions and individual events.
I currently do not believe that a one- or two-day rebound in tech stocks means this round of correction is over.
If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to break through 5%, high-valuation tech stocks may still face selling pressure. $QQQ $BTC $NVDA
The AI industry may be about to witness one of the craziest IPOs in history.
On November 10, Anthropic launched its IPO roadshow, planning to issue 825 million shares at a price of $70–78 per share, aiming to raise up to $64.4 billion.
Based on fully diluted shares, the company's valuation could reach as high as $1.4 trillion.
Even more astonishing, Anthropic's annualized revenue scale as of the end of October has already reached about $81 billion, but its future computing power procurement commitments approach $900 billion.
This company is expanding its revenue at an incredible speed while also bearing extremely large costs for computing resources.
In the past, capital markets were willing to pay high valuations for AI companies' growth; now Anthropic is ready to face the test of the public market directly.
If the $1.4 trillion valuation still attracts substantial funding subscriptions, it indicates that investors remain highly optimistic about the long-term growth of the AI industry.
However, if the IPO pricing continues to be revised downward, it could further impact the valuation of the entire AI industry chain. $SNDK $NVDA $BTC
Visa has further expanded its stablecoin settlement network.
On November 10, Visa announced the inclusion of Monad into its stablecoin settlement support network, allowing eligible card issuers and acquirers to use Monad for settlements.
More notably, Visa's stablecoin settlement business has already exceeded an annualized scale of $25 billion.
In the past, stablecoins were mainly used for cryptocurrency trading, cross-border transfers, and on-chain finance.
Now, the global payment giant is attempting to directly integrate stablecoins into the traditional financial settlement system.
For companies like Visa, one of the greatest values of blockchain is enabling institutions to complete fund settlements continuously outside of traditional banking hours.
However, this cooperation is mainly targeted at participating financial institutions and does not mean that all Visa consumers can directly use Monad for payments.
As for whether the MON token will benefit from this, it still depends on the actual on-chain settlement volume and whether these transactions will generate sustained token demand.
Stablecoins are gradually becoming a payment infrastructure seriously studied by traditional financial institutions.
$BTC $ETH $MON
Is there really a rich mindset? In fact, many times, it's just survivor bias.
Is there really a rich mindset? Actually, many times, it's just survivor bias. Buffett is famously steady, Musk is famously bold to go all in, yet everyone says they have a rich mindset. Today I dug into their backgrounds. In 1963, American Express was involved in a fraud case, and its stock price plummeted. While others were selling off, Buffett kept buying, investing up to 40% of his fund's capital. But he had originally set a rule to buy no more than 25% of any one stock. For American Express, he personally broke that rule. So in the end, he and Musk are actually cut from the same cloth—they both dare to go all in where they are most confident. So, going all in when you are sure—that should count as a rich mindset, right? But just looking at the winners isn't enough; let's look at the losers. Around the same time as Tesla, there was another American electric car company called Fisker, which you probably haven't heard of. Back then, it was no smaller than Tesla; both companies had government loans, and Fisker was even approved for a higher amount, backed by top Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins. It also chose to go all in, betting the entire company's fate on electric cars. The most important part of making electric cars is the battery. Fisker chose the then highly regarded star battery manufacturer A123, while Tesla used battery packs made up of thousands of small laptop cells. If you were to invest at that time, who would you choose? The result: A123 went bankrupt in 2012, Fisker followed in 2013, while Tesla repaid its government loan nine years early in the same year. In hindsight, Fisker bet wrong, but at the time, it was clear that it...
Pop Mart myth shattered! The once trillion-yuan trendy toy empire is undergoing a brutal valuation reassessment.
Pop Mart once swept the globe with LABUBU, with its stock price peaking at HK$337.
But as of November 6, the stock price has fallen to HK$141.9, down about 58% from the high.
Even more shocking are the latest results.
In Q3 2026, Pop Mart's revenue dropped 45%–50% year-over-year, with the Americas market revenue plummeting 70%–75%.
LABUBU, which was wildly sought after worldwide last year, has now clearly cooled off.
The reason the capital market was willing to give Pop Mart such a high valuation was because investors believed it could continuously create the next LABUBU, even becoming the Chinese version of Disney.
But the hardest part of the trendy toy business is that while a hit product can generate astonishing growth, it’s very difficult to ensure the next product will also succeed.
When consumers stop frantically buying, the capital market begins to recalculate the company's long-term value.
Falling from HK$337 to HK$141.9, Pop Mart has proven one thing: even a global phenomenon consumer brand cannot rely forever on a single hit product to maintain high growth. $BTC $ETH $XPOPMART
10 Habits That University Research Teams Reveal Easily Lead to Poverty
1. Spending each day without setting goals (McGill University)
2. Tendency to procrastinate on money management (University of Chicago)
3. Lack of exercise habits (Stanford University)
4. Irregular sleep schedules (Harvard University)
5. Checking your smartphone immediately after waking up (Stanford University)
6. Constantly comparing yourself to others (Columbia University)
7. "Busy" becoming a catchphrase (Yale University)
8. Always keeping notifications turned on (MIT)
9. Having a messy room (Princeton University)
10. Eating meals at different times every day (Columbia University)
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The final drop of Bitcoin is very likely nearing its end!
This morning, $BTC fell to a low of $73,500, retreating more than 9% from the previous rebound high of $81,000.
At the same time, Jensen Huang's personal controversy continues to escalate, and Nvidia's board has launched an independent investigation, adding another uncertainty to the US tech sector.
The crypto market also saw massive liquidations, with about $745 million liquidated across the network within the first hour of the morning, over 95% of which came from long positions.
With continuous declines, ETF outflows, and concentrated long liquidations, a significant portion of short-term risk has already been released.
I tend to believe that the final drop of this adjustment has very likely occurred.
As long as BTC can hold around $73,000, the next target is to see if $76,000 can be reclaimed, followed by $78,000–$80,000.
If it falls below $73,000 again, this judgment will need to be revised. $NVDA $SNDK
Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB, Buffett's company, recently hit a historic high.
I just saw a report and found that Buffett's successor, Greg Abel, seems to be more actively deploying the company's cash.
Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in stock in Q3, and added another $2 billion in October, spending a total of $11.6 billion in just four months.
Interestingly, although operating profit fell 6% and net profit dropped 28% in Q3, the stock price hit new highs against the trend during the tech sell-off.
As of the end of September, Berkshire still held $356.9 billion in cash on its books.
It feels like the cash empire Buffett left behind is entering a new phase.
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