NVDA at $176, do you dare to buy?
A single-day plunge of 9%, market cap evaporated by 400 billion, CEO rumors flying everywhere, regulatory threats looming — everyone is shouting "The AI bubble has burst." Just now, the price dropped to around 175, RSI hit 25 in the oversold zone, and the Q3 earnings report on November 17 is just days away. Is this the end of the bull market or a golden buying opportunity?
First, look at the surface: bad news lined up to crush the market, bulls are beaten down and can't lift their heads.
From the October high of 243 down to 176, a drop of over 20% in one month. It broke below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the weekly rising wedge pattern broke down, and MACD shows a bearish alignment. The news is even harsher: post-midterm election regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten again, CEO personal matters and board investigation rumors pressured pre-market. On November 5, a single-day drop of 9%, market cap evaporated over 400 billion USD.
First thing: what's falling is the stock price, not computing power.
Latest earnings: Q2 revenue 96.2 billion USD, +106% year-over-year; data center revenue 89 billion USD, +117% year-over-year; gross margin 75%. Q3 guidance 108 billion USD. FY2028 preliminary revenue growth expected around 70% — note, this is under "supply constrained" assumptions, actual demand is higher.
The Vera Rubin platform has already started shipping, accounting for about 20% of data center revenue next quarter. Big customers like AWS are still increasing orders.
In plain language: AI demand hasn't collapsed, orders haven't collapsed, gross margin hasn't collapsed. What collapsed is your leverage and sentiment.
Regulation is a real risk, but it won't kill computing power demand. It will only concentrate the survivors. NVDA is the concentrated beneficiary.
Second thing: the $176 price already factors in a lot of pessimistic expectations.
Forward P/E has significantly declined, some analysts point to a range in the teens. Most Wall Street price targets remain at 250-300+.
Do you know what this means? The market is not pricing in "NVDA is failing," but rather "NVDA can't skyrocket like before anymore." These are two different things.
Customer self-developed chips, memory cost squeezing gross margin to 71-73%, China revenue basically zero — these negatives are already priced in. What you're afraid of now is what you should have feared three months ago.
Third thing: technically oversold, earnings are the turning point.
RSI daily has hit 25-30, the oversold zone. 175-170 is strong support, 164-165 near the 52-week low. Volume has increased confirming selling pressure, but after oversold, a technical rebound can come anytime.
Key event: Q3 earnings on November 17.
If guidance beats expectations and FY2028 growth is confirmed, a V-shaped rebound is not a dream.
If it misses expectations or regulations tighten further, it may dip to 165 or even lower.
Those who cut losses before earnings will likely regret it after, but those fully invested before earnings may also get buried. This is the current situation.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Revenue +106% YoY, data center +117%, gross margin 75%
Vera Rubin shipments started, AWS continues to add orders
Forward valuation significantly digested, Wall Street targets 250-300+
RSI oversold, 175-170 strong support
Earnings could be a catalyst for reversal
On the other side:
Regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten
CEO-related rumors suppress sentiment
Moving averages bearish alignment, weekly structure weakening
Interest rates 3.75-4.00%, high rates suppress growth stocks
Breaking below 175 may accelerate drop to 165
Key levels
Resistance above: 181-185 → 190-195 → 200-205 (200-day MA)
Support below: 175-170 (strong support) → 164-165 (52-week low)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don't heavily short; oversold rebound can come anytime. Hold 175 with volume rebound, light long positions, target 181-185, stop loss 172. If 175 breaks with volume, wait or light short, target 170-165, stop loss above 178. Shorting here risks getting stuck at the bottom.
Mid-term players:
Wait for November 17 earnings clarity. Aggressive traders can build long positions in batches at 170-175 with low leverage, stop loss below 165, target back to 200+. Conservative traders wait to hold above 185-190 before adding.
Long-term believers:
If you are bullish on AI long-term, the value at 176 is already attractive. Dollar-cost average on dips or hold spot with low leverage, target 250+. But be prepared to endure a 10-15% further pullback. Long-term means not watching the chart obsessively, or watching but not panicking.
NVDA now is like NVDA at the end of 2022 —
99% of people thought "The AI story is over," but it went from just over 100 to 240. $BTC$ETH$NVDA
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
