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Global Macro Guidance from October 26 to November 1 — Fed + PCE Data Pricing in December Rate Hike, AI Giants Face Profitability Test, Super Pricing Week Arrives! If last week’s market discussion was about the probability of an October rate hike being postponed to December, this week’s core argument becomes more complex, focusing on three key directions: a, how the Fed defines no rate hike in October — is it a pause? Or a dovish shift? b, which macro data among oil prices, GDP, and PCE will become the key driver deciding whether to hike rates in December! c, AI giants’ earnings reports vs. macro pressure entering the second week — can this week’s earnings reports from the giants reverse the situation? #ThisWeekWillReleaseOctoberFOMCRateDecision In short, this week is a super week where policy + inflation + growth + AI profitability + global central banks + geopolitical energy all converge, and I believe the focus should be on three main themes. First main theme — no rate hike in October becomes the default, is the expectation of a December rate hike locked in, and will there be further hikes in the future? 1. As of now, the probability of a December rate hike has risen to around 72.4%, entering the preliminary pricing stage. 2. In the early hours of October 28 — October FOMC meeting + Wash’s speech, the focus is not on no rate hike in October, but on what policies are being laid out to pave the way for a December hike: a, will inflation risks and continued inflation rise be emphasized? Will inflation expectations be raised? b, how to evaluate the energy shock? If Wash explicitly acknowledges concerns about oil prices affecting commodities, transportation, corporate costs, and inflation expectations, then December rate hike