Post
ARRIWYKS
#OilFlowsRecover
Brent $114 now, EIA Q4 $105, 26 avg $96 → $84 in 27 if flows hold. Goldman $85 Dec → $80 27.
Why $100+ still?
Crude recovers, refined only 58% of 25 avg — Kuwait 75% cap. Diesel $200/bbl 2x crude. Stocks -509M bbl vs Feb, lowest since 16. US distillates -32% 5y avg. 7 tankers hit Hormuz, rates still high.
Outlook: OPEC+ HOLD Nov, Saudi cut Asia -$5. G7 100M SPR release. If Hormuz holds: $95-110 Q4. Escalation: $120-150 diesel $250.
Play: Long crude dips, long diesel crack.
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