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taishiro
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The market may be pricing in a pause, but the inflation data could make the months ahead more complicated.
A 57.6 Composite PMI and rising corporate selling prices suggest the Fed may have less room to ease than traders' hope.
For BTC, I’m watching how the market reacts to Powell’s tone. If yields climb on a hawkish surprise, this rebound could face another round of selling pressure.
交易员刺客
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is just around the corner. On the surface, the market generally expects no change in October, but brothers, take a close look at the underlying data in this chart—there are strong undercurrents beneath the surface.
The latest preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI hit 57.6, with the Manufacturing PMI soaring to 56.0, marking a 53-month high. Even more critical, the increase in corporate selling prices is the fastest since August 2022. What does this mean? It means the U.S. economy is not in recession but rather heating up, and the root of inflation has not been removed.
The community comment at the bottom of the chart hits the nail on the head: "Pause is not a dovish pivot; 92.8% of pricing hides a December rate hike knife, the real signal is in the wording."
The trading strategy in recent days is very clear: before the meeting results are released, absolutely do not heavily bet on a one-sided move. If you hold long positions, take profits during this rebound; if you are out of the market, closely watch the post-meeting statement and capital flows. If Powell (or Waller) comes out hawkish and the market rebound is weak, we will follow the trend to short and take profits on the pullback. Don't be cannon fodder before the news lands; wait until the boot fully drops, then enter to pick up cheap chips. Keep cash in hand and wait for the wind to blow. $BTC
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