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$BTC $ETH The 5 key price levels to watch in the crypto market today, not trending on Twitter Don't be fooled by hot words in the group chat, today's real trading numbers are these: BTC 82000: Holding = bulls haven't collapsed; breaking below = watch the 80000 psychological level ETH 2447: short-term sentiment watershed, if not broken, try going long; breaking 2400 switches to defense ETH 2500: breaking above with volume = bears temporarily concede XRP 1.35: breaking means sideways trading fails, 1.30 is the next support to watch SOL 105: high beta critical point, if 105 can't hold, no bull market talk for altcoins Plus two macro anchors: Dollar Index 102.5: above 103, risk assets all tremble US 10Y Treasury 5.24%: continuing to rise, ETH can't expect a crazy rally Trading is not prediction, it's clearly writing out "if... then..." scenarios. Don't guess the bottom or chase the peak today, wait for price levels to speak. #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation $BTC crude oil surges to 106, gold suppressed at 4195: Safe-haven assets show inconsistent stances today Interesting, today traditional safe-haven/inflation assets are "divided." Gold COMEX at 4195.90, spot at 4174, touched 4217 on Monday but didn't hold — indicating there is "safe-haven buying," but the dollar and US Treasury yields are keeping it down. Brent crude oil at 106.12, WTI at 93.16 — this is pricing in a "geopolitical risk premium," not economic strength, but trouble in the Middle East. So where does BTC fit? In the short term, it’s not gold, it’s a "tech risk asset": Nasdaq down 0.44%, BTC also soft; dollar up, BTC also soft. In the long-term narrative, it only touches on "digital gold." So don’t blindly buy BTC just because gold is rising, nor shout "crypto safe-haven" just because oil prices are up. The real relationship today is: oil price up = inflation fear = Fed hawkish = crypto under pressure gold not taking off actually proves "true safe-haven funds" are still hesitant. #CPI and PPI releases imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $ETH $BTC Scumbag observation on ETH 10.13 Well, it really is a big bearish candlestick crashing down Let's pay attention to the support around 2400; if it breaks down effectively, it will be truly empty. Be careful not to suffer big losses. Place some orders around 1920Day 10 of the 10,000 to 200,000 challenge, BTC current price 81811, I am betting the bottom is relatively higher than the last buy point at 81600, buying!$AZTEC Damn it! AZTEC's recent pump is just ridiculous. The volume above 0.0186 clearly can't keep up, it's pure bull trap. I've been watching for a while, and the sell orders are piled up like a mountain; smart money has already left, just waiting for retail investors to take the bait. This kind of pump without news is either a shakeout or a dump—classic manipulator tactics. I placed a short at 0.0186 with a stop loss at 0.0205; if it breaks that, I'll accept the loss. If you want to take this bite, be careful and don't overleverage your position. 👇👇👇$BTC $ETH The US September inflation data hasn't been released yet, and starting October 14, the crypto market needs to "hold its breath" Don't think today's volatility is all there is; bigger shocks are coming: US September CPI/PPI/retail sales will be released one after another, and the market is already waiting. Why is it important? Because the Fed is still tough: "Inflation mindset is entrenched, interest rates still need to rise." If CPI exceeds expectations again, the probability of a 25bp rate hike will jump from 20.5%; if CPI weakens, the market will discount the December rate hike, giving risk assets some breathing room. For crypto: Hot CPI → Dollar rises, US bonds rise, BTC/ETH fall first Cold CPI → Short covering, ETH surges to 2500–2550 Strong retail -> Fed becomes more hawkish -> Crypto market gets tougher So don't set your stop losses too tight these days, and don't max out leverage. ETH at around 2447 is most vulnerable to "betting on direction before data, then getting stopped out after data." Experienced traders usually reduce positions before data and watch for real breakouts after data before following. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ZEC has completed a classic rally and profit-taking cycle. It surged to 1348, attempted 1350 but failed. During the price decline, OI continuously flowed out. Bulls took profits and exited, with no new funds entering. This round of short squeeze has ended. The core question now is: can the 1111 support hold? The privacy narrative remains the fundamental logic behind ZEC. But the market tells us: without OI increasing again, a new upward rally will not start.5｜SOL 109, BNB 740, XRP 1.38: Don't chase altcoins today, first watch BTC's mood Today SOL is about $109.76, BNB about $740.14, XRP about $1.3858. On the surface, all slightly up, but don't be fooled by the “red bars.” $BTC SOL are highly volatile chains; they usually surge sharply and drop hard too. With tight macro conditions, a hawkish Fed, and a strong dollar, it's hard for them to fly solo. If they really want to surge, BTC needs to hold steady above 82000, and ETH must defend 2447–2480 to have confidence. BNB is relatively stable because it has exchange fundamentals, Launchpool, and on-chain activity supporting it, but it's not a “mindless buy” — if the overall environment pulls back, it will also retreat, just usually more resilient than smaller altcoins. XRP now is like a “slow-heating old man,” hovering around 1.38, neither breaking down nor breaking out. Suitable for placing orders, not for chasing gains or panic selling. Today's altcoin trading mantra is: If BTC is unstable, don't heavily hold altcoins; if ETH doesn't return to 2500, don't chase SOL above 112; XRP can be picked up while sideways, discuss weakness only if it breaks 1.35. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test The market is being generous; I said I wasn't optimistic about the rise. Combining the trend structure line, this short position is directly making big profits! The feeling of precisely escaping the top is just comfortable. $NEAR: Opening average price 5.576, current price 5.085, 10X leverage, unrealized profit 732.23U (+88.07%). Nearly double the return! Shorted near 5.6 after a reversal at the top; this downtrend has been extremely smooth, leaving no chance for bulls to rebound. Currently approaching the 5.0 level; first, let's see if this position can hold. If not, continue holding; if it breaks below 5.0, target 4.8. $BTC: Opening average price 82603, current price 81819, 10X leverage, unrealized profit 155.39U (+9.49%). Also decisively entered a short at the high of 82600. Now Bitcoin has directly broken below 82000, confirming the bearish trend. This trade is steady; looking further down at the 80000 level. Previously, all long positions were fully closed for profit, then firmly switched to short. This wave's rhythm is tightly controlled. When the market is weak, short positions are the best safe haven. Profits are running; continue to sit tight and wait for the market to bottom out before making further moves! $STRK #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? ## 今日 T+24H 突发（4 条） 1. 🔴 **伊朗革命卫队 10/12 在霍尔木兹再扣一艘违规油轮**（两天内第三艘），航运风险持续升级 2. 🔴 **胡塞再袭沙特空军基地**，利雅得机场关闭延至 10/18；沙特 24h 内 119 次空袭报复；**美军暂不直接下场仅情报支持**（关键缓释） 3. 🔴 **克利夫兰联储哈玛克放鹰 "需小步快频加息"**；CME 12 月加息 25bp 概率升至**70.3%**（上期 64.1%） 4. 🟠 **俄乌 "能源停火" 罗生门**：佩斯科夫正式拒绝 60 天停火；泽连斯基指控俄一边克制一边被打加油站；俄方至今未确认 ## 核心盯单点 - **今日盘前银行财报**：JPM EPS $5.93 / GS $14.47 / C $2.64 / WFC $1.844 - **明日 CPI**（10/14 20:30）：预测整体 + 3.6% / 核心 + 2.5%，核心环比 0.21% 为决胜点 - **模拟交易**：维持 100% 空仓，CPI + 银行财报双重事件前不追多October 13 Crypto Market Daily: The recovery didn't hold, the pullback has arrived. BTC fell back to $81.8K, ETH lost $2,500, SOL dropped below $106 — yesterday's small rise was swallowed by today's bearish candle. As of around 07:35 Beijing time on October 13: BTC: $81,820, 24H -2.19% ETH: $2,451.52, 24H -3.27% SOL: $105.66, 24H -4.94% 24H trading volume: BTC about $27.35B ETH about $13.10B SOL about $3.11B Market cap: BTC about $1.645T ETH about $299.66B SOL about $62.30B All three declined simultaneously, with clear strength hierarchy: BTC is the most resilient, ETH second, SOL the largest drop. The trading volume clearly expanded, indicating this is a volume-backed decline, not a low-volume gradual drop. In short: this is a pre-CPI early reduction of positions, not a trend collapse, but definitely not a time to add positions. 1) Price structure: recovery failed, BTC fell back to the lower boundary of the range BTC reported at $81,820, 24H -2.19%. Binance 24H range about $81,800-$84,352. BTC dropped directly from above $84K back to $81.8K, basically giving back all of yesterday's recovery, heavy💎 ETH: Security Is Just as Important as Growth! One Ethereum development I find worth discussing is the Foundation’s research into native transaction assertions. The idea is to help users verify that a transaction produces the intended outcome, rather than relying only on the fact that a transaction was signed. 🔐 In my view, making blockchain transactions safer and easier to understand is an important part of wider adoption. 📉 Don't panic over the market pullback; these 4 assets are "charging up"! Today SUI, PUMP, ZEC, and ARB are all down, but the fundamentals are being bombarded with positive news, a typical "leveraged shakeout": SUI (-5.4%): Institutional funds are surging! Included in the CME index + unlocking $500 million BTC liquidity, infrastructure is being rapidly completed. PUMP (-6.4%): The Meme sector king has a deep moat, with an average daily buyback and burn of $1.25 million, totaling $300 million burned, the deflationary logic is the strongest. ZEC (-7.8%): Privacy coin ETF fee war has begun! Gemini applied for an ETF management fee of only 0.25% (Grayscale is 2.5%), significantly lowering institutional allocation costs. ARB (-4.0%): Robinhood chain's trading volume has surged to $34.6 billion in two months since launch, the "Meme + US stocks" play is triggering traffic spillover. 💡 Observer's view: Panic is the best test of fundamentals. Before CPI data, watch more and act less, but these few stocks with strong left-side logic are worth adding to your watchlist for focused monitoring! 👀 #Web3 #Cryptocurrency #SUI #PUMP #ZEC #ARB #InvestmentWatch$ETH The Federal Reserve is the hidden big player in the crypto market: One sentence from Harker makes the market more bearish than Twitter news Honestly, trading crypto now without watching the Federal Reserve is like driving without looking at traffic lights. The hardest news today: Cleveland Fed President Harker said U.S. interest rates still need to rise further, inflation will stay at 2.5%–3.0%, companies are raising prices faster than costs, and "inflation mindset" is solidifying. She is also a voting member for the October meeting and is "open" to whether to raise rates on October 27–28. The market pricing now is: 79.5% chance of no change in October, 20.5% chance of a 25bp hike; 70.3% chance of a 25bp hike by December. This is very clear—not an immediate hike, but the "easy money dream" is gone. What does this mean for the crypto market? Strong dollar → risk asset valuations pressured → BTC/ETH unlikely to have a crazy bull run High U.S. Treasury yields → funds prefer 5%+ yield in Treasuries rather than gambling in crypto Weak U.S. tech stocks → crypto follows down, especially high beta like ETH/SOL So today ETH grinding between 2447–2500 is not decided by retail investors, but the "Fed expectations" pressing down the ceiling. Don’t believe in "$100k soon," believe first that the Fed won’t turn hawkish again. $BTC #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $BTC The current popular trend in the crypto world is "hoarding." Publicly listed companies treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and mining companies hold onto the coins they mine, waiting for appreciation—but there is one listed mining company that sells every coin it mines immediately, keeping zero on its books. According to Wu Shuo Blockchain's news on October 10, Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer sold all 300.6 BTC mined during the week ending October 9, maintaining a zero Bitcoin holding on its balance sheet. In other words, this company's "net increase in Bitcoin holdings" has long been zero. This figure stands out in the industry. In the past two years, "hoarding coins" has almost become the standard practice for listed mining companies and coin-holding firms: keeping mined coins on the balance sheet is both a bullish bet and a way to beautify the books when coin prices rise. Bitdeer goes against this trend—turning mining output directly into cash, leaving none behind. The last time it appeared in news about "holding growth" was in September 2025, when it announced holdings increased to about 1,966 coins. Now back to zero, it effectively overturns the two-year narrative of hoarding coins. Why dare to do this? Let's look at its fundamentals. Bitdeer's operational data for June 2026 is quite strong: Bitcoin production increased by 388% year-over-year, reaching 990 coins; self-mined computing power is 73 EH/s, with a self-mined mining machine scale of 243,000 units. $BTC BTC 82600, ETH 2487, XRP 1.38: These three are not following the same story today Don't be fooled by the similar red and green in mainstream coins today; the logic is completely different. BTC is around 82625 USD, touched 84000 over the weekend then came back, indicating there is real selling pressure above 84000, but there are buyers at 82000. BTC is now a "macro barometer": the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 5.24%, the dollar is strong, so it dares not surge recklessly; but as long as risk appetite returns to US stocks, it is the first to be bought. ETH is about 2487 USD, highly correlated with BTC but more volatile. When BTC drops 1%, ETH often drops 1.4%—today's news said "Bitcoin dropped over 1%, Ethereum dropped over 1.4% to 2493." In other words, ETH is now "eating from the same macro meal," but with a shallower stomach, prone to vomiting. XRP is about 1.386 USD, up 0.38%, not very strong. It is no longer purely a crypto narrative, more a slow variable of "legal/payment/institutional adoption." Short-term funds are not that crazy, but it hasn't collapsed either; it’s the kind of asset where "you feel uncomfortable chasing highs, but dare not short when it breaks down." Today, don't treat these three coins as the same kind of asset. BTC watches the macro, ETH watches volatility and stop-loss, XRP watches if it can hold sideways and change volume. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Grid bot check-in update✅, it has now been running for 6 days and 10 hours🥰 The grid itself is still working hard, with grid profits reaching +0.77%, cumulative arbitrage count hitting 598 times, almost a stable 93 round-trip arbitrages per day. As long as the price fluctuates within the grid, it obediently earns the spread, working without slacking off! But the market keeps going down😮‍💨, the price has dropped from 123.94 in the last screenshot to 120.69 now, getting farther from the starting price of 131.88. The little bot still sticks to its instructions, continuing to buy and add positions as the price falls. The fridge has been stocked with many new small dishes🥬 that haven’t been eaten yet. The unrealized paired loss has expanded to -6.81%! The little money painstakingly earned by the grid can’t withstand the continuous inventory loss from new additions, and the overall total return rate has dropped to -6.04%, deepening the loss compared to last time😭ETH (Ethereum) ETH $2,487 Macro: BTC has pulled back to around 82,600, and ETH continues to weaken relative to BTC (ETH/BTC down about 4% in the last 20 days). Capital has not rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum, making it the weakest link. Technical: This morning at 05:00 Beijing time, ETH dropped 1.4% in one hour alone, directly breaking through the key support at 2,510, hitting a low of 2,482; the 1H RSI is only 26 (oversold), but the price is already below the 1H MA20/MA50/MA200 — the breakdown is confirmed. Focus: 2,510 has flipped from support to resistance; if the rebound cannot close back above 2,510–2,535, the downtrend will continue; below, 2,470 is the starting point of this rebound and the last near-term support. If broken, the price will head straight to 2,406 (the crash low on October 8).$ETH ETH is now at 2447. Don’t just look at the number; look at which “battlefield” it’s on. Brothers, ETH is quoted around 2487–2493 USD outside today, but many are focused on the 2447 whole number. Why? Because 2400–2450 is the short-term bullish defense zone. If it breaks, it’s likely to drop to 2350–2380; if it holds, there’s a chance to test 2500+ again. Today isn’t just “ETH playing by itself,” macro factors are pulling it: the US Dollar Index is hovering around 102.5, and Fed’s Harker hawkishly said “interest rates need to rise further.” The market partly believes there’s a 79.5% chance rates won’t move in October, but also fears a 20.5% chance of a rate hike surprise at the October 27–28 meeting. At times like this, ETH is easiest to shake out: it rises and someone sells, it falls and someone buys. Don’t get emotional in trading: 2447 is not a “must-buy,” it’s an “observation point.” If it really moves, wait for 2447 to hold on a rebound with volume, or if it breaks 2400 and then fails to reclaim it on a rebound, then talk about a weakening trend. ETH is no longer a junk coin logic; it’s the “risk asset among risk assets.” When the Fed coughs, it sneezes first. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes $BLUR top accounts are more bullish, positions are more bearish, divergence narrowing mainly from the account side. Bullish accounts ratio 59.4%→55.7%, bullish positions ratio 41.7%→41.3%; gap narrowed by 3.32 percentage points. $BOME top accounts are more bullish, positions still bearish. Bullish accounts ratio increased by 1.8 percentage points, bullish positions ratio increased by 0.06 percentage points, still at 47.2%.🚨 Alert! Ledger hardware wallets suffer supply chain attack (malicious chip implanted) Ledger confirms that some devices sold through Southeast Asia authorized distributor (CryptoBilis) were tampered with in the supply chain, with unauthorized hardware modules implanted! ⚠️ Attack methods and threats: Highly covert: The malicious implant retains the original secure chip, perfectly bypassing Ledger's official Genuine Check. Mnemonic theft: During user wallet initialization, the module captures the mnemonic displayed on the screen and quietly transmits it via a built-in cellular module. 💥 Impact and losses: Hundreds of wallets have been emptied, with estimated losses reaching $70 million – $93 million+. Some community reports indicate the risk may not be limited to this single distributor channel. ℹ️ Official response: Ledger emphasizes that its official system and devices sold directly on the official website are unaffected. However, this incident has severely shaken supply chain trust in the self-custody industry. 🛡️ Security advice: Always purchase hardware wallets only through official direct channels; do not rely on third-party authorized dealers. Regularly inspect device casings for signs of resealing or tampering. #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 #Crypto #Cybersecurity #HardwareWallet #BlockchainSecurityThis account has fully closed its ONDO long position, exiting with 330,000 USD at an average price of 0.467429. Closing the position does not mean a bearish view; let's see if they open a new position again. ONDO trader closed long | Account 52c8e6 | Position change 329,210 USD Average execution price 0.467429 · Position after change 0 USD · Leverage 3x $ONDO $BTC was excited for nothing. I saw Bitcoin rise to 550,000, and I thought I was going to get rich quickly, but it turned out to be an OK bug.Woke up early to a harsh reality, currently floating at a loss of -41.35U. Stared at the screen for a while, sighed deeply, and decided to let it be, really exhausted mentally. 🍂 $ETH: All profits gone, plunged into hell. Entry price 2,501.22, current price 2,447.98, 20X long position, huge loss of -53.23U (-42.56%). The +62U earned a couple of days ago is completely wiped out, breaking below 2500 directly. Liquidation price 2,386, feeling powerless watching it. 🌧️ $TRX: The dragging anchor on the brink of despair. Entry price 0.3353, current price 0.3286, 20X long position, floating loss of -10.04U (-39.96%). Continuous decline with no rebound, just a step away from liquidation price 0.3209, no strength left to struggle. ☀️ $BTC: The only lifeline. Entry price 82,544.12, current price 81,813.17, 20X short position, profit +21.92U (+17.71%). The market finally crashed, the short position barely recovered some ground, liquidation at 86,341. Brothers, close the app, have some breakfast, get a good rest. Life is yours, let it be, good morning everyone.👇 $BTC $ETH $TRX #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what to watch for in the October 15 earnings report? Stop sleeping, wake up quickly, 82000 is gone I jumped out of bed and opened the OKX app. $BTC 81778, down 2.28% overnight. I bottom-picked at 82000 last night, now I'm standing on the edge of an abyss. I'm not the only one having this morning. I checked, 512 million liquidated in 24 hours, bulls account for 84%, 122,262 people are sleepless with me. The worst is Binance's 9.65 million BTC long position, liquidated at 81772. Whales and retail investors, same treatment this morning. $ETH 2447, down 3.49%, funding rate turned negative, shorts start paying. Total network open interest shrank from 142.3 billion to 138.8 billion, leverage is being cleared. The off-exchange fire hasn't died out: crude oil 105, US Treasury yield 5.3%, ETFs ran 680 million last week. Key points: 1. I think breaking below 82000 is not a pullback, it's macro bloodletting plus stop-loss stampede. Even whale positions got liquidated, this path is full of bull corpses. 2. Ethereum funding rate turning negative, extreme pessimism is often the eve of a rebound. Bottom picking is okay, but don't use leverage, I certainly don't dare. 3. ZEC dropped 9.31% catching down, the altcoin falls first. Before tomorrow's CPI release, I choose to stay out and watch. I closed the app, decisively don't want to watch the market, decided to have breakfast first and get ready to work hard. What about you, do you still dare to open positions today? The window outside brightened, others greeted the morning light to start a new day, while I stared at the devastated market, my hands and feet cold. The account shows an unrealized profit close to 600U, yet I feel a bone-chilling cold. $BTC (The cold bloodsucking machine) Entry average price 85,763, current price 81,857. Isolated margin setup, unrealized profit 285.49U, ROI 91.07%. The big coin smashed through 82,000, the defense line far away at 89,753. Extremely safe, yet it became the shackle locking my warmth. That bearish candle is filled with others' wails. $ETH (The bleeding MVP) Entry average price 2,712.23, current price 2,449.35. Isolated margin setup, unrealized profit 305.72U, ROI 193.84%. So tragic! Ethereum plummeted, shorts earned nearly double. This is the most dazzling record in the account, and also the abyss of others' flesh and blood. $DOGE (The last warmth being strangled) Entry average price 0.08427, current price 0.082228. Isolated margin setup, unrealized loss 2.42U, ROI -48.44%. Amid the chaos, I used the remaining 5U to lay out a tiny bit of faint goodwill, trying to find a trace of warmth. Reality is ruthless, even this last innocence is to be crushed. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test #Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what highlights remain for the October 15 earnings report? Once shouting slogans of unwavering loyalty to SK Hynix and Samsung, the outlook now seems less optimistic. Some data: 1. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has dropped a cumulative 22% in the second half of this year, becoming one of the worst-performing major stock indices globally. 2. This year, foreign investors have net withdrawn as much as $131 billion from Korean stocks, the largest withdrawal scale in all of Asia. Among them, Samsung's foreign ownership ratio has fallen to 46.38%, the lowest in 18 years since the 2008 financial crisis; SK Hynix's foreign ownership has also dropped below 50%. 3. Samsung and SK Hynix's combined $41 billion stock buyback plan is supporting the market floor. However, the buyback progress has already exceeded 80% and is expected to conclude by mid-October. 4. The average daily trading volume in the Korean market has plummeted 70% from the peak in late May, retail investors' outstanding margin loans have decreased from 38.6 trillion KRW to 33 trillion KRW, and securities account balances have also shrunk significantly. Speculative rotation, refusing to pay for the last feast. $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX Sharing a spot slow-wealth framework! 🧭 For steady progress, keep only $BTC, $ETH, BNB, SOL in the main portfolio. These leaders have strong consensus and good liquidity, more reassuring than chasing small coins. 🪙 Profit relies on cycles, not frequent trading. Buy in batches during bear markets, sell in batches during bull markets, wait 2-3 years for trends, aiming for 5-8x returns. 📉➡️📈 To raise the ceiling, learn some candlestick charts, do swing trading on weekly charts, target 8-12x; when the trend is clear, try small positions in sector leaders, exit if wrong. ⚖️ Two bottom lines: ① When the market is overheated and positive news floods in, take profits in batches to lock in floating gains. 💸 ② Avoid contracts and high leverage; one liquidation means zero. 🚫 Spot trading, spare money, patience, and discipline are needed to survive bull and bear markets. 🌱 This is just a personal approach, not investment advice. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Coin Watch Morning Report 2026.10.13 BTC $81,789｜ETH $2,446｜SOL $105 As of October 13, 2026, the crypto market accelerated its decline, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds have fully withdrawn, awaiting CPI guidance. 📊 Major Asset Market BTC: Around $81,789**. Total network open interest is **$55.05 billion, up slightly 1.28% in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%. ETH: Around $2,446**, breaking below the whale liquidation zone lower boundary. **$2,401 is the bulls' lifeline; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate. SOL: Around $105**, 24H liquidations total **$10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral washout. Open interest $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging continues. 💡 Trading Suggestions BTC: No rush to bottom-fish, wait for volume expansion and stabilization signals near $80,000. ETH: $2,401 is the lifeline; strictly exit if broken. SOL: Do not chase shorts, wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing. Keep low leverage and control positions before CPI release; avoid premature speculation. Building an AI-weighted moonbag not names with “AI” in the ticker, projects with real usage behind them. $TAO $NEAR $RENDER $LINK $SOL all still 64-83% below their ATHs. Not a call to buy the dip, just where these sit on the monthly chart right now. The idea small size, long hold, forget about it until the next cycle tells a different story.$NEAR 已经进入超卖区，但“该反弹了”和“已经见底”完全不是一回事。 现价5.038，24小时-14.16%；1小时偏弱、4小时偏弱，量能约为近20根均量的1.01倍。 我把它拆成两个剧本：A，突破6，短线结构获得确认；B，跌破5.007，原判断失效，下一观察位转向4.445。 不预设答案，只看哪个条件先发生。你认为A剧本还是B剧本更可能先出现？ 以上是行情观察，不构成投资建议。这里是币圈牛牛说。Macro Summary Part 3 This Week — The U.S. Stock Market Q3 Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off! This week features earnings reports from U.S. banks, ASML, and TSMC, representing three key links in the AI industry chain: capital supply, semiconductor equipment, and advanced chip sanctions. The quality of bank earnings reports will determine whether the environment for AI capital expenditure is abundant; ASML, as a core equipment manufacturer, decides on key technologies, equipment capital expenditure, and capacity expansion speed; while TSMC is responsible for providing capacity, yield rates, product pricing, and packaging, determining the actual supply capacity and manufacturing cost of AI chips. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Therefore, the earnings reports of these three sectors will be the key "first shot" of the U.S. stock market Q3 earnings season. Whether they start off well will determine the market's valuation adjustments for subsequent companies. Especially under the current macro pressure of global inflation plus high long-term bond yields, a curious phenomenon emerges: strong earnings companies versus high risk-free returns. How should capital choose? Should it pay for companies? First, it looks at whether the industry environment is healthy, then whether individual earnings are strong, only then will capital pay for the current valuations. For U.S. banks, currently in a phase of high long-end interest rates plus continued AI capital expenditure expansion, earnings reports should be analyzed by focusing on loan growth, net interest income/net interest margin, investment banking and debt capital markets, credit loss provisions, and management guidance. The core is to see whether the current macro environment, while boosting bank profits, is beginning to suppress corporate financing and credit expansion.Overall, the account looks pretty good today. The two short positions on $ETH and DOGE are still held, with comfortable profits. Just opened a long position on BTC, currently a slight loss. $DOGE: Entry price 0.09984, current price 0.09504, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 624U, ROI 101%. This position has been held for several days, steadily going down without much adjustment. Continuing to hold the short, target first at 0.09, will consider exiting once reached. $ETH: Entry price 2739.79, current price 2675.86, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 223U, ROI 49%. Was still underwater yesterday, but turned positive today, dropped smoothly, continuing to hold looking at 2600. $BTC: Entry price 84407.31, current price 84302.30, full position 20X leverage, unrealized loss 17U, ROI -2.49%. Newly opened long position, just entered near the cost line, holding to observe. As long as BTC doesn't fall below 83000, no big problem; upper target is 86000. Summary: Shorts are for making money, longs are for testing the waters, overall the account is still in the green. Trading doesn't need to be complicated; hold on if the direction is right, don't panic with small positions when underwater. That's it for today, will check again tonight for opportunities. #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report? #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation For blockchain projects, rewards and ecosystem activities do not guarantee token price appreciation. Participants need to consider transaction fees, time, token depreciation risk, and liquidity withdrawal capability. Increase: Price breaks resistance with volume and actual demand improvement. Decrease: Losing support while altcoin cash flow weakens. What to do: Calculate net profit after fees, not just the number of tokens received. Perspective: Realized profit is more important than the number of tasks completed. $NEAR #NEAR #Airdrop #CryptoIs it still time to roll the position now? I really regret not doing it earlier! Seeing ZEC's big bearish candle directly smashing through 1162, my heart is truly bleeding. It's not because it dropped, but because I hate myself! Clearly, when it was above 1300, I was sure it couldn't go higher, so why didn't I dare to be bolder and roll the position? Now looking at the 1354% profit in my account, others envy it, but I only feel regret. In this bearish trend, I got some gains, but because of fear, I missed out on the fattest piece! Why am I so sure this drop isn't over yet? Check out the latest fundamentals: ZEC's NU7 upgrade plan has sparked concerns that v4 transactions might be disabled. Privacy coins fear protocol instability the most, and this basically shakes its technical foundation! The main players are using this news to wipe out retail investors who were shouting "bullish quick recovery." Look at the 4-hour chart: from 1384 down to 1112, then rebounded to 1349, and now turning down again to 1162. This is not bottom building; it's the main players repeatedly pumping and dumping, tricking hopeful bulls to get slaughtered one wave after another. Now retail traders are scared and rushing to short, the long ratio plummets, but this actually shows the real panic selling isn't over yet. The major trend has completely turned bearish $BTC $ETH $ZEC #InstitutionsKeepPositioning, why is BTC still under pressure? When will this big bearish candle come to an end? I still can't see the end. At least not yet. What I see now is that other major altcoins are falling harder than BTC. Just like before when the market was rising. During the rise, major altcoins led BTC upwards, most altcoins could outperform BTC, but this time, most major altcoins are falling even worse than BTC. This is value reverting. Where it will revert to, I don't know. We can only wait and see.日本这轮“倒闭潮”不是单一危机，而是成本冲击 + 人力枯竭 + 利率正常化 + 外部冲击 + 人口老化叠在一起，把抗风险最弱的中小企业先压垮了。 一、核心原因 1. 物价和进口成本大涨 - 日元长期贬值 → 食品、能源、原材料、零部件进口变贵。 - 但很多中小企业没议价权，不敢把成本全转嫁给客户，利润被两头夹死。 - 2025 年“因物价高企破产”案例明显上升，2026 年上半年仍继续增加。 2. 人手不足 + 工资被迫上涨 - 少子老龄化导致劳动力供给收缩，餐饮、建筑、护理、运输、软件外包最惨。 - 大企业能加薪抢人，中小企业为了留人也硬加薪，结果“人工成本涨得比利润快”，现金流崩掉。 - 2026 财年上半年“因人手不足破产”创历史新高，“因找不到接班人破产”也创历史新高。 3. 日本央行退出零利率，融资成本上升 - 过去低利率让很多低效企业“半死不活”续命； - 现在利率上行（2026 年已提到约 1.25%），银行也不再无底线续贷，僵尸企业开始出清。 - 利息支出增加，对本来就在盈亏线上挣扎的小企业是致命一击。 4. 美国关200 million liquidation, longs account for 70%! I'm still holding on, just one step away from liquidation, how about you? Brothers, as of October 13th, 8:30 AM. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $195 million, with longs liquidated at $143 million, accounting for 73.31%. $ETH leads with $58.14 million liquidated, longs account for 64%; $BTC liquidated $54.89 million, longs account for 78%; $ZEC liquidated $15.07 million, shorts account for 59%—ZEC is the only coin where shorts liquidated more than longs, because the earlier short squeeze was too intense, causing a short squeeze stampede counterattack. Looking at my positions: BTC long -240%, ETH long -92%, ZEC long -115%, only CL short +16% is holding up. I was almost one of that 73.31%. But I won't cut losses. The reason is simple: CPI hasn't been released yet. If the CPI cools down on October 14th, short covering will give all deeply trapped longs a chance to escape. If CPI exceeds expectations, then I'll accept the loss. Holding positions is not heroism; it's preserving chips before data release and decisively admitting mistakes after data disproves your position. Are you among that 73.31% of liquidated longs? Do you plan to hold until CPI or cut now? Fortunes rotate; after longs get liquidated, will shorts be next? #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test "The sharp pull-up at dawn, who chased to the high ridge?" $BTC surged to 84,500 then quickly fell back to 83,800; ETH rose from 2,530 to 2,580, then dropped back to 2,520. One false breakout, one real drop, the market is full of drama. 1-hour chart: BTC's red bars remain, DIF at 188.3, MACD at 3.9, golden cross still alive; but the J value has slipped to 42.7, momentum quietly loosening. Upper boundary at 84,550, lower boundary at 83,350, break whichever side, follow that side. ETH also has a golden cross, J value at 54.2, upper boundary at 2,588, lower boundary at 2,498. Key levels to watch: BTC must hold above 83,800 to recover; if it breaks 83,350, look for 82,800; ETH holding 2,500 means consolidation, losing 2,498 points to 2,450. Early morning rallies are the easiest to deceive; without volume and without holding steady, chasing in means taking the bag. Don't let a single bullish candle change your view, wait for breakout confirmation before acting. For personal observation only, not investment advice.$ZEC has been oversold in the short term, showing a slight stop in the decline and a small rebound. The large range above is mostly trapped positions, creating heavy resistance. The price has dropped sharply in one direction with strong downward momentum. Although there is a small rebound after the oversold condition in the short term, the overall trend has already weakened. The rebound is most likely a correction within the downtrend. Those who just entered are now trapped. Teachers, how much do you think it will pull back, or will it continue to fall?Tragic, so tragic. This morning I was still calculating a floating profit of 552U, now the total floating loss is 938U. This is not trading, this is being repeatedly ground down by the market. Take a look at this battered account: $ETH: floating loss of 539U, position increased to 8.245 units, current price 2449, liquidation price 2400. Less than 2% away from liquidation. Institutions are still continuously transferring ETH to exchanges, which is the most despairing signal for me. $DOGE: floating loss of 317U, current price 0.0821, liquidation price 0.0813. Only 1% away from liquidation! This is the deadliest time bomb in the whole market. Dogecoin's high beta characteristic is fully exposed in the downturn; any sudden dip could wipe me out completely. $BTC: floating loss of 81U, current price 81818, even the big brother can't hold 82,000 anymore. The Middle East situation suddenly escalated, oil prices surged pushing inflation expectations higher, ETF outflows reached $487 million in a single day, and the CPI data release on October 14 is imminent. The macro environment is all bearish. Last night I was still fantasizing about a "turn for the better," today reality slapped me awake. With 20x leverage, the so-called "holding the position" and "bottom fishing" are just blindly stepping forward on the edge of a cliff. The liquidation lines for DOGE and ETH are already right under my feet. Now it's not about how much profit I can make, but whether I can preserve my principal. #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test #Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? The market is under pressure, with a bearish capital flow. BTC is currently around 81,990, ETH has fallen below 2,500, down approximately 2.1% and 1.1% respectively in the last 24 hours. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $678.9 million, ETH a net outflow of $542 million, both the worst recent performances. On the macro level, CPI and PPI data are about to be released, the Fed's September minutes are hawkish, and overall risk appetite remains cautious. BTC technicals are bearish. The price has fallen below the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, with the 200-hour MA at 83,877 forming a key resistance above. On-chain data shows that $84,000 to $85,000 is the largest cost concentration area, forming the main resistance zone; $77,000 to $79,000 is the core support zone below. Strategically, do not chase shorts; wait for CPI release to confirm direction. If the price pulls back to around 81,300 and stabilizes with a 15-minute level stop-fall signal, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss below 80,800 and a target of 82,800. If a rebound to the 83,300 to 83,500 resistance zone fails to break out with volume, it is a short-term short opportunity. ETH technicals are weaker. The 15-minute level just experienced a sharp drop; ETF outflows and large on-chain sell-offs resonate, with F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun transferring 2,160 ETH to exchanges, miner address transfers usually seen as sell signals. The current price is trapped between the support zone of 2,444 to 2,478 and the resistance zone of 2,548 to 2,648.#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC The biggest market suspense this week centers on the upcoming US September CPI and PPI inflation data releases. With the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaching at the end of the month, these two inflation reports will directly reprice expectations for rate hikes and cuts, causing sharp volatility in crypto, gold, and risk assets. What to watch in the two data sets CPI (Wednesday evening) — Consumer inflation The market's most focused core indicator, reflecting prices of goods and services consumed. If the reading rises again, it indicates persistent inflation, and the market will reprice the likelihood of rate hikes. US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, directly suppressing risk assets. If inflation falls, tightening pressure eases, providing a basis for risk asset recovery. PPI (Thursday) — Upstream industrial inflation A leading indicator of factory raw material and energy costs. A rising PPI means upstream cost pressures are high and will eventually pass through to consumer CPI; a falling PPI indicates inflation pressure is easing at the source. Only by combining both data sets can we see whether inflation is truly cooling or just a temporary illusion. Current market situation After last week's pullback, the market is merely undergoing a correction after being oversold, not a trend reversal. With no major data early in the week, the market enters a phase of expectation games, with neither bulls nor bears initiating major moves. Oscillations and shakeouts will be the main theme. BTC is stuck between resistance and support, with much of the intraday price movement reflecting capital testing the waters; false breakouts and traps are common. Brothers, what are your thoughts on tomorrow night's data…To be honest, when I discussed with him, I did feel this way too. Bitcoin and Ethereum often fluctuate sideways, and the trend is sometimes not obvious at all, which can be confusing. Even when a trend emerges, if you chase it then, the volatility is not that big anymore. Unlike altcoins, when a trend starts there, if you chase it, there's at least a 10%-15% volatility range to follow.Someone privately asked: Bitcoin dropped two points, now at 81975, is it a good time to buy the dip? Let me do the math for you: 82000 is resistance above, 81750 is support below, with only 250 points of space in between. If you buy in now, your stop loss should be at 81500, risking 475 points; the target is 82000, only gaining 25 points. This risk-reward ratio isn’t trading, it’s just giving money to the market. I used to do this foolish thing: buy when it drops, get stuck, hold on, then cut losses when I can’t hold anymore. That’s how I lost 200,000 U. The correct approach: wait for 81750 to break before deciding the next move, or wait until 82000 truly holds before following. Don’t trade in between; missing out is not shameful. With a small 5000 U position, always use stop loss, never hold through losses. Trading doesn’t mean catching every move, just the ones you understand. $BTC #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $ #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Live trading record day 183! The data hasn't come out yet, but the knife has already fallen. CPI and PPI hang overhead, funds choose to retreat first, and risk-off sentiment directly pushes the market into defense mode. The current rebound looks more like a breather after a sharp drop, not a turnaround. $BTC reported at 82832, smashed down with a big bearish candle in 1 hour, followed by only a slight weak recovery. The price is still suppressed by all EMAs, the bearish framework remains intact. RSI6 is at 38.2, MACD green bars continue to expand, selling pressure is still pouring out. The upper resistance at 83240 is not reclaimed, so no short-term strength reversal; the lower support at 82348 is a buffer for now. The current upward move is considered a pullback. $ETH reported at 2529, continues to follow BTC, stuck below EMA55, RSI6 at 38.66, also weak. The upper resistance is 2548, the lower support is 2512. Its own elasticity is insufficient; direction still depends on BTC. $SNDK reported at 1492. Down 7.34% in 24 hours, volume breakout, all short-term moving averages lost, RSI6 dropped to 20.6, oversold but oversold. However, sentiment in the storage sector has worsened. Resistance above is 1555, support below is 1467. Selling pressure is not fully digested; the rebound should be seen as a repair, not a bottom. Weak consolidation after a big drop, rebound quality is low, blindly bottom-fishing is risky. Focus on whether BTC can retake 83240. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Before the market opens, take a look at the chessboard: placing these twelve pieces—Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, SpaceX—at once on Solana's grid lines is not a simple pawn advance; it's castling the king and rook of traditional finance directly onto the opponent's home ground. Behind each token is a one-to-one backed real equity, with dividend rights and voting rights—note, these are not fake “shadow pieces” like CFDs, but real physical pieces truly placed on the board. This move is heavy and extremely risky. As someone used to counting squares in endgames, the first thing I see is not the list of targets but how many empty squares remain on the liquidity chessboard. The biggest fear in asset tokenization is not an ignored opening but a standoff in the midgame—when dividend distribution, voting rights exercise, and redemption channels are all under threat simultaneously, who guarantees the board won't collapse? Securitize uses registered broker-dealer settlement, pegged to USDC, effectively adding a moat for itself, but the deeper the moat, the narrower the drawbridge for exit. Redemption can hold temporarily, but it cannot withstand everyone demanding cash out simultaneously when market sentiment shifts abruptly—this is a classic token redemption trap; it looks like the pieces are balanced, but the initiative has already changed hands. Then look at the phrase “allowing qualified investors in the market”—these five words are restrictive rules on the chessboard. Qualified means not everyone can place pieces; liquidity is naturally cut. The not-yet-launched digital trading venues and subsequent settlement channels are still unlit squares; the game hasn't reached there yet, and any premature celebration is a rookie mistake. The real highlight is the linkage between US stocks and these twelve tokens. If targets like XEWY form a high-pressure hedge with US stock spot markets, token premiums and discounts become the pawn promotion in the endgame—one step difference decides win or lose. My judgment is: whether this model can succeed depends not on technology but on whether market makers are willing to hold their positions under redemption pressure. If willing, it’s a solid midgame advantage; if not, it’s forced piece sacrifice. The layout is complete; the midgame struggle has just begun. #securitize12stocksDay 15 of Quantitative Scanning Current assets: ¥1460.93 $BTC officially adopted a brand-new execution approach yesterday. During the day, it maintains approximately one full market scan per hour, capturing RSI reversal signals followed by a secondary screening to choose the right entry timing. From the logic of signal capture, the overall direction is correct, and most trades during the day are profitable. $ETH took small profits on winning trades; losing trades were stubbornly held without a rigid exit rule. Positions looked stable before sleep, but unfortunately, the market suddenly dropped sharply overnight, causing passive drawdowns on overnight holdings. $ZEC coincided with a collective market crash yesterday. Under extreme conditions, the account's drawdown remained controllable without catastrophic losses. The strategy is beginning to take shape, but there is still significant room for improvement in risk-reward ratio and risk control rules. Whether the strategy is viable long-term still needs repeated verification over time, gradually refining the details.看那栋叫Grain Management的承重结构被整根抽走的时候，AT&T、T-Mobile、Verizon三根主柱同时下沉了近六个百分点——这不是市场情绪在抖，这是有人要在既有的城市天际线旁边，直接打下一片全新的地基。 SpaceX拿下的这张全国性800兆赫频谱，本质是一块别人捂了多年的旧地皮。它本身不产生任何价值，就像一块没有施工图的空地。真正让我在图纸前坐直身体的是：这块地和它头顶上那张低轨卫星网配合起来，第一次构成了一套完整的垂直承重体系——从地面基站到近地轨道，从物理光缆到射频波束，一个人可以同时站在两个楼层的结构上。运营商们过去赖以自豪的，是那套横贯全国的地下管网和塔架，那是几十年浇筑出来的钢筋混凝土，密度极高，护城河极深。但现在有人不跟你比墙有多厚了，人家在换结构体系。 但我要指出一件所有建筑师都懂的事：盖一栋摩天楼，最贵的从来不是钢，是地基与施工周期。频谱只是批文，卫星只是塔吊，真正决定这栋楼能不能封顶的是现金流这根后张预应力筋。Starlink Mobile要从太空和地面同时供楼，需要的资本开支曲线不是斜线，是近乎垂直的悬崖。旧运营商此刻的股价崩塌，反映的不是他们担心今天被抢走住户，而是担心这张新图纸一旦开工，整个行业的分摊成本结构要重新计算。 再看那个标着 $xEWY 的衍生结构，它挂在美股这栋大楼的裙楼里，跟着塔尖一起震。这类资产的连接方式是软连接，没有独立承重，风一吹就传导。真正的判断锚点不在它身上，而在那张频谱批文什么时候落地、发射节奏能不能撑住、以及用户增速这根梁能不能先于利息成本垂下。 评估一个项目不要看效果图，要看剖面图上每一根钢筋的规格与间距。SpaceX现在交出的，是一份极其雄心勃勃的方案图；至于它能不能从图纸变成实景，取决于施工队愿不愿意在看不见的地方继续砸钱。 这栋楼的桩基已经打进去了，而原来的三栋老楼，还在重新测量自己的沉降量。 #starlinkspectrumdeal早盘砸到$81,803，$BTC回踩低位。 当前市场行情显示，BTC现报$82,134，24小时跌1.9%。 凌晨一度弹到$83,149附近，没接住就回落。 早盘进一步探到日低$81,803，把昨夜$82,400一带的弱反弹也打穿了。 ETH现报$2,466，24小时跌2.7%；SOL跌约4.4%，弹性端更软。 合约费率约+0.003%，几乎贴平；OI近24小时合约币量约多1%，但凌晨高点后持仓在回落，更像砸下来减仓，不是追空把杠杆打满。 ETF最新一日净流入约2110万美元；5日至9日合计仍净流出约6.79亿美元。 资金通道还没修好，价格却已先把$82,400的弱反弹吐掉。 周三还有美国CPI，数据前仓位普遍偏轻，波动容易被突然放大。 短线先看$81,800-$82,400有没有承接。 守得住，CPI前多半继续在高低点之间磨。 再往下破，$81,800会先变得敏感。