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This Yi Lihua, do any of you brothers follow him?
Do you think the BTC resistance and support levels he describes in the article are reliable?
Let me comment one by one:
First question: The 400-day moving average of BTC is at 81,000, so it can get support and rebound here.
Comment: What the heck is a 400-day moving average? Twice the 200-day? It's the first time I've heard of a 400-day moving average. To prove his sharp insight, does he have to make up a BTC 400-day moving average?
Second question: The strong resistance level of BTC is at 86,500, so every time it reaches here, it pulls back.
Comment: Does it pull back because there is resistance at 86,500? Isn't it due to recent macro issues like the crazy rise in oil prices, the repeated ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine on oil and gas, and the unstable situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia? It's just that there was no special positive catalyst to push a one-time rebound above 90,000, and it just happened that BTC encountered resistance at 86,500.
When all these coincidences come together, it is described as a mechanical executable operation method. This kind of thinking is extremely naive.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
Looking at this data, don’t rush to shout "institutions have fled" just yet.
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs flowing out together indicates that allocation in regulated channels is cooling down, especially ETH with eight consecutive days of withdrawals, which looks more like a "real reduction" than BTC.
But I prefer to call it: macro risk aversion + profit-taking, not a collective long-term institutional exit.
When US Treasury yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risks rise, big money in ETFs first cuts beta; it’s normal for BTC and ETH to be trimmed together.
The difference is: BTC outflows are in pulses, ETH outflows are a trend. So the phrase "institutional demand weakening" fits ETH more, while for BTC it’s more of a short-term retreat.
Next, watch the next three days: whether outflows spread to the entire IBIT/FBTC/ARKB camp or just concentrate on individual products; whether BTC can hold above 84k;
Whether funds return after CPI and Fed statements. If outflows continue, that’s a demand inflection point; if they stop falling and rebound, it’s just October deleveraging.
$SNDK
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $BAT short positions are too many, every time the whale pumps it slowly slides down, pumping a few points at a time can't trigger the short positions, and instead the shorts keep adding to their positions. How long can this coin last relying entirely on the whale's pumping?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?
On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakableUniswap is refocusing on its core business.
For UNI holders, this is not good news.
The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong,#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? The leader has something to say
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows last week, totaling $1.221 billion. BTC net outflow was $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH net outflow was $542 million, the largest single-week outflow since January, with nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Is institutional demand weakening? My judgment is that this is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not a trend of withdrawal. Before the CPI release, funds are hedging, which is expected. Plus, with 30-year US Treasury yields at 5.7% and short-term debt yields high enough, some funds temporarily move into fixed income, which is normal.
But ETH is weaker than BTC. BitMine already holds 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of total supply, and management says they have basically bought enough. The largest ETH treasury buyer has stopped, so ETH lost key support. Therefore, ETH fell harder than BTC and its rebound is weaker than BTC's.
Today the market is recovering, BTC up 2.09%, ETH up 2.94%. ETF fund flows and short-term prices are diverging; some are selling, some are buying. The market is waiting for CPI to set the direction.
I still hold my BTC long at 82,800+, stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. ETF outflows are a slow variable and do not affect the short-term rebound rhythm. I will reduce positions at the target, no stubborn holding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I won't touch ETH for now, waiting for ETF funds to flow back. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly. The most noteworthy data today is that BTC's total network contract open interest sharply dropped by 6.05% within 24 hours, falling to $54.091 billion. Meanwhile, the price rebounded above 83,000, making the signal of position reduction and rebound worth a close look.
1. What changed? This morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000, with over $770 million in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which 88.9% were long positions. The price then made a V-shaped recovery, but the open interest did not rise correspondingly.
2. Why is this important? This rebound accompanied by a decline in open interest indicates that the rally was not driven by new long entries but rather by short covering and passive position closures. BTC funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are now paying to hold positions.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a "technical correction after leverage clearing" rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, showing institutions are still systematically reducing positions.
Next, watch the previous high at 83,800: a volume-backed hold above this level would validate the rebound; if pressure returns, the nature of this rebound as a position reduction will be confirmed. The direction may be revealed earlier than most expect. $BTC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC Dot plot says 4.1%, the speaker says more hikes are needed.
▪️ Median of September dot plot 3.8% → 4.1%, unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 25bp
▪️ SEP pushes return to 2% to 2029, core PCE revised up to 3.4%
▪️ CPI announced on 10/14 at 20:30, August reading CPI 3.4%, core month-on-month 0.3%
▪️ CME shows 78.4% probability of no rate hike at 10/27–28 meeting
▪️ Concurrently 10Y at 5.36%, 30Y at 5.73%, highest since 2002
The disagreement is not about how tough the speaker is, but that the "median of the dot plot" and the "tone of the speaker" are not the same thing.
The dot plot is the composite result of 19 voters, reflecting the committee's view on year-end rates; the speech is an individual statement, which can be interpreted as tougher. What is truly priced in is the former—CME's 78.4% no hike indicates the market treats the rate meeting as an uncertain variable. CPI is the only number not yet factored into this pricing.
Direction is to wait and see — if CPI is below expectations, bets on rate hikes will fade; if above expectations, the long end will move up another notch. Costs dropped by 82%, but I’m actually panicking
Researchers have reduced the estimated computational cost of dedicated quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions by 82%, down to $59.
The potential risk exposure is huge.
According to a study by Glassnode, about 6.04 million Bitcoins (30.2% of the then-issued Bitcoin supply) have public keys visible on-chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum attacker could derive private keys from the exposed public keys and take control of the associated cryptocurrencies.
My thought is: what used to seem impossible is now being seriously pursued.
What’s more troublesome is something else.
Every time you transfer your coins, it’s like hanging your house keys online.
About one-third of all Bitcoins worldwide are already in this state.
And the new solution only protects those that have never been exposed.
So the dividing line isn’t about cost, but whether you acted early enough.
The good news is, changing to a new address can be done today, almost for free.
The bad news is, the attack has no deadline, but the risk is always present.
Don’t mistake the absence of incidents for safety; quantum security doesn’t mean it’s impenetrable.
It means it hasn’t been broken yet.
Those who act early can sleep well.
$59, one step closer than what I wrote before.BTC staged a classic "short squeeze counterattack" in the past hour. It briefly fell below $81,000 in the morning, causing nearly 170,000 liquidations, but then the price strongly rebounded to around $83,800.
The core driving force behind this rebound was short covering, not new capital inflows. In the past 4 hours of liquidations, short positions accounted for over 90%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million in a single week, with institutions reducing positions during the rebound.
In the short term, watch the resistance at the previous high of $83,800. If it fails to break out with volume, it will likely retest support at $83,000. The real decisive factor will be tomorrow night's CPI data—if inflation exceeds expectations, this rebound may be just a flash in the pan. $BTC $BTC More short-term liquidations of short positions occurred in the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, indicating that this rapid rebound primarily swept out the shorts. Looking at the 24-hour timeframe, long position liquidations reached 110 million, significantly higher than the 53.119 million in short position liquidations.
In simple terms: short-term rallies harvested shorts, but over the full-day larger cycle, longs are still being heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, washing out both longs and shorts in turn. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so positions must be kept light. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% 【Under negative ETH funding rate, who is placing the 2523 buy order to support the bottom?】
Just after the US stock market opened, an abnormal signal appeared in the ETH order book.
What has changed with ETH? The funding rate is negative (-0.00064%), shorts are paying to hold positions, but buy orders occupy 58% of the order book, with a large 250 ETH order placed at 2523.83.
Why is this worth attention? Over the past 10 days, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, on the futures order book, someone is absorbing at the lower level. These two forces are moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards "passive defense under crowded shorts" rather than active bullishness. A negative funding rate means short positions are concentrated, and if the price does not fall, there is a possibility of a short squeeze.
Next, watch two signals: whether 2520 (MA20) can hold, and whether ETF outflows converge. If it doesn't hold, the support order may just be a buffer; if it holds, the story is just beginning. $ETH Write an analysis post about the field I am most skilled in.
I have spent 1000 days and nights studying various macro data and geopolitics of different countries.
First, regarding the screenshot, tomorrow is the release day of the 5-star data CPI, which will be published at 8:30 PM.
The most noteworthy points are the annual rate and the Fed's favorite core CPI monthly rate month-over-month.
Currently, the expected data for the annual rate is not optimistic, while the core monthly rate month-over-month is still acceptable; last month was 0.3%, and now the expectation is 0.2%.
If one is good and the other is bad, they can offset each other. If both are bad, then we need to focus on analyzing the current positions and status of BTC and ETH in the market.
First: If both data points are good,
BTC and ETH will strongly break through their respective resistance levels at 83850 and 2566, these two key positions.
Second: If one is good and the other is bad, regardless of whether the annual rate or the monthly rate is good, overall, as long as ETH is around 2535 at the time of release with one good and one bad data point, it will most likely move sideways downward. Subsequently, it will continue to oscillate within a range.
Third: If both data points are bad,
If at the time of release BTC is above 83000, a sharp drop is inevitable. Altcoins will suffer even more.
If BTC and ETH tonight, for unknown reasons, fall below 81000 and 2430 respectively, then with bad data, the rise or fall tomorrow is uncertain.
Only by breaking below their respective lows to find a bottom, or by the negative news being fully priced in, will there be an open-ended positive outcome.Bottom at 80,000 or chase the rise at 86,000?
CPI will give the answer tonight
CPI data is the "trigger" for the crypto market's directional choice tonight. If the core month-on-month is 0.2%, BTC is expected to hold above $83,000 and challenge 86,000; if it is 0.3% or higher, there is a high probability of a pullback to 80,000 or even lower.
The current market has already "voted with its feet" in advance. The capital flow sends a clear warning: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million last week, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows; Ethereum ETFs also had a net outflow of $542 million, with institutions proactively reducing risk amid macro uncertainty.
The key contradiction lies in the misalignment between market pricing and Federal Reserve expectations. Prediction markets show a 67% probability that BTC will fall below $80,000 within October, meaning the current crypto prices have not fully priced in the scenario of "core CPI exceeding expectations."
Operational advice: reduce leverage and stay on the sidelines before the data release. If the core month-on-month is 0.2%, lightly follow BTC's short-term rebound with a target of 85,000-86,000; if core is 0.3%+, wait for BTC to pull back to the dense on-chain support zone at 77,000-78,000 before considering phased buying, rather than blindly bottom-fishing around 81,000. Ethereum requires additional attention to ETF capital flows and transfer movements of wallets related to the foundation.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Originally was about to sleep, but glanced at the K-line, BTC 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, too hot for the short term, ETH and SOL also bounced accordingly, but whether they can hold above the resistance level is the real focus.
$BTC rebounded from 80351 to 83665, 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, clearly overbought, but contract open interest hasn't expanded much, indicating this rally looks more like short covering and bottom-fishing driving it; spot market hasn't kept up at all. The 84000 level above is a resistance; if it can't hold, it's a fake rebound, chasing highs is very risky.
$ETH rose from 2405 to 2520, but the 4-hour MACD is still below zero line. The lower edge of the 2550 to 2578 range has many trapped positions; it's not easy to break through directly. RSI is also overbought. Chasing longs here has poor cost-effectiveness.
$SOL rebounded from 101.58 to 108.08, 15-minute RSI surged to 74.9, 4-hour resistance is near 110. Like BTC and ETH, no new money is entering; this rebound lacks sustainability.
I believe tonight's V-shaped rebound is not a reversal, more like an escape opportunity for those trapped during the day.
Follow-up plan: Only consider light long positions if BTC holds above 84000, ETH above 2550, SOL above 110; otherwise wait for pullbacks. Watch BTC at 82000, ETH at 2450, SOL at 103-105, and act after volume contracts and stabilizes.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed Countdown 24 hours: 820 million evaporated overnight
At midnight, $BTC plunged to 80,927, $ETH touched 2,405, with 814 million contracts evaporated in 24 hours, 84.6% of which were long positions—no black swan, just leverage paying debts.
The rebound gap is very honest: BTC is only 0.3% away from the opening price, ETH hasn't touched back 2,560, $SOL is 3% short of 112. This is not a return of risk appetite, but funds hiding in BTC as a shelter. Market dominance is 59.3%, BTC is sucking liquidity.
Macro is not easing: Hamak says inflation has spread to AI infrastructure and electricity, with nearly 70% chance of rate hike in December, 10-year US Treasury at 5.24%.
October 14, 20:30 CPI, the decisive factor is core month-on-month—≤0.2% is a breather, 0.3% reignites debate, ≥0.4% triggers rate hike repricing. Risk is asymmetric; overheating is much more troublesome than cooling.
Watch three numbers: BTC 84,360, ETH 2,580, SOL 113. Only when all three move together is it diffusion; BTC alone moving is risk aversion.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Lost $11.27 million in seven days, this crash really put big brother Maji on the hit list again.
First, two rounds of cutting positions and taking losses, a real loss of $1.01 million + $12,000, left with only a 25x long position of 7,150 ETH, with the price just $26 above the liquidation line;
Then just after a slight rebound at dawn, he turned around and added positions again, now holding 9,825 ETH, with an unrealized loss of $845,000, and cumulative funding fees burned $1.34 million.
On October 5th, the account still had an unrealized profit of $5.46 million, but in just seven days it dropped to $562,000, a net value drawdown of nearly 90%. This is no longer a roller coaster, it's free fall.
Many people use him as a contrarian indicator to mock, but I think this is the harshest truth of high-leverage trading: unrealized profits are always just paper numbers, but liquidation is a real evaporation of principal.
He was right to bet on ETH long-term going up, but 25x leverage simply can't withstand any volatility. Even if the big direction is right, there's a high chance of dying halfway. Sideways movement is like a dull knife cutting flesh, funding fees are drained daily, and if the trend doesn't come, the position is gone first.
Leverage is something where winning a hundred times is not enough to cover losing once. Do you think he can hold on this time, or is it another liquidation to zero?
$BTC $ETH 100x leverage earned 175%, netting 0.08U
$ETH pulled from 2487 to above 2530, rising less than two points.
Someone used 6.91U principal, 100x full position long.
What does this number mean:
100x means if the price moves 1% against you, the principal is gone.
1% of 6.91U is 0.07U.
So this trade survived because the direction was just right.
What he actually did:
Entry price 2487, unrealized profit 175%, which translates to only 0.08U earned.
Shorted another coin 3x, unrealized profit 65%, netting 0.1U.
Together, both trades sum to less than 0.2U.
Leverage amplifies the percentage, not the money.
When the principal is very small, doubling is just a matter of a few cents.
What really gets amplified is the liquidation risk.
Wait until a position that can lose the entire principal appears, then talk about profits.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $ETH $ETH On the ETH side, 1-hour and 4-hour intervals see more short liquidations, with short-term rebounds first clearing out the shorts. But extending to 12h and 24h, the volume of long liquidations significantly surpasses shorts; in 24 hours, longs liquidated 130 million, while shorts only 39.378 million.
Simply put: short-term rallies harvest shorts, but over the full day in larger timeframes, longs are heavily liquidated. The market pulls back and forth, longs and shorts are alternately shaken out, making it easy for both sides to hit stop losses. Operations must be cautious.
⚠️Risk warning: Liquidation data only reflects already occurred clearings and cannot be used to predict future market trends LayerZero spent $10 million buying its own tokens, yet ZRO still dropped 14%, with the unlocking acting like a blade pressing down on everyone.
Market overview first: OKEx spot price currently at 2.0272, down 2.1% in 24h, after reaching a high of 2.3673 then falling back to 2.03, a 14% pullback from the peak; trading volume 5.9 million USDT, market cap 950 million, volume shrinking with a slow decline.
Interesting event timeline: Yesterday LayerZero Labs bought $10 million worth of ZRO on the open market, price surged to 2.48 that day, making people think the project team was stepping in to push it up, but today it was knocked back to reality— even insiders buying tokens couldn’t stop the correction.
The reason is clear: On October 20, 23.63 million ZRO tokens worth about $53.73 million will unlock, split evenly between core contributors and the ecosystem. As the countdown enters the unlocking window, short-term funds dare not take the lead; technical indicators also align: RSI at 40.5, MACD bearish crossover below zero line, price pressed below supertrend and all short- and mid-term moving averages, no one dares to go long proactively.
But don’t lose sight of the long-term logic: Since April, Stargate’s revenue has been 100% used to buy back ZRO, already purchasing 2.538 million tokens. The project team investing real money to vote is a long-term positive signal, it’s just that the unlocking window causes short-term pressure.
Watch the support at 1.9984, if broken look down to 1.97; resistance at 2.1384. The battle before unlocking lands is about who has patience. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZRO #LayerZero #CrossChainToday, South Korea's KOSPI plunged sharply, once falling below the 6000 mark, dropping over 6% and triggering a circuit breaker. Weighted stocks were clearly under pressure, with Samsung Electronics down more than 5% and SK Hynix plummeting over 7%.
This round of sell-off was driven by multiple factors resonating together: continuous large-scale foreign capital outflows, with net sales exceeding 1 trillion KRW in the morning session, and the outflow trend has persisted for several days; combined with breakthroughs in ChangXin Memory's DDR5 new technology, the market worries about the impact on Samsung and Hynix's storage pricing advantage. Additionally, the weakness in the US stock AI sector and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials tightened liquidity expectations, further dragging down global tech risk assets.
The index dipped to around 5900, close to previous key support. Many local Korean brokerage views believe that after the sharp drop, Samsung and Hynix valuations are temporarily oversold and require technical repair.
But it should be noted that foreign capital selling pressure has not yet confirmed an end, and whether following the trend to short or directly bottom-fishing, the risks remain high.
Short-term judgment: A rebound repair wave is highly likely, but it is characterized as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea KOSPI down over 6% $SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple pre-market news in the US stock market collectively signal that institutions are beginning to reduce equity risk and shift towards bond hedging, which will directly impact the crypto market.
In the crypto space, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has already rebounded. The risk appetite in the US stock market will directly affect the crypto market. Institutions reducing US stock holdings and increasing US bond holdings means a contraction of risk capital, which will continue to suppress BTC and ETH. Yesterday, spot ETFs continued to see outflows, resonating with the risk-off sentiment in the US stock market.
If the US stock market opens weaker, the crypto market will simultaneously come under pressure; if the US stock market stabilizes and oscillates, the crypto space will maintain range-bound trading. Currently, with overall capital seeking safety, altcoins are facing greater volatility pressure.
BlackRock's actions are the most representative: it downgraded US stocks to neutral while increasing US bond allocations, ending a six-year underweight stance on US bonds. This reflects the current judgment of leading institutions that the cost-performance ratio of the stock market has declined, capital prefers bonds for hedging, and the willingness to allocate to risk assets is shrinking.
Bank earnings reports show divergence: JPMorgan's revenue missed expectations, with FICC business income below estimates; Goldman Sachs' equity trading business exceeded expectations, but fixed income business was weak; Citigroup slightly met targets. Big banks' earnings falling short of expectations will heighten market concerns about the economy.
In the storage chip sector, Morgan Stanley warns that the semiconductor cycle is nearing its peak, with high profitability posing a valuation trap, and expectations for tech stocks are beginning to ease.#渣打银行为Ripple旗下RLUSD提供托管服务
$XRP 银行来托管稳定币，抵押品不用挪窝。
▪️ 渣打通过迪拜国际金融中心分行提供 RLUSD 机构托管，受迪拜金融服务管理局监管
▪️ 支持 RLUSD 在其原生 XRP Ledger 上运行
▪️ 拟把「抵押品镜像」模式扩展到 LMAX，客户把 RLUSD 当交易抵押品
▪️ 镜像模式下代币留在银行托管，LMAX 无需客户转账即可确认持仓价值
▪️ 渣打称该模式可降低转移风险与交易对手敞口；功能仍需文件、测试与监管审批
分歧不在银行肯不肯托管稳定币，在「抵押品不用离开托管」这个设计省掉了哪一步。
过去要用稳定币做抵押，得先把币转到交易对手那里，转移过程本身就是敞口。镜像模式让银行出具确认、对手方认可价值，币不动、风险敞口也少了一段。这套流程能不能落地，取决于银行愿不愿意为一份「确认」承担责任——渣打把它写成了待审批事项，说明它自己也在等条件齐备。
方向给观望 —— 抵押品功能获批落地才算新阶段；停在托管则只是多了一个保管方。#Strategy's buying slowdown, is the corporate treasury strategy changing?
Strategy's approach has shifted a bit; it used to buy coins blindly, but now it's starting to be more cautious.
Let's look at the data. From October 5th to 11th, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending less than $20 million. But during the same period, it spent $192 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares. Do the math: the buyback amount is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The guy who used to "raise funds just to buy coins" is now using most of the money to fix the capital structure.
Looking at the bigger picture, SoSoValue reports that the net weekly BTC purchases by listed companies dropped by 90.6% week-over-week. This isn't just about Strategy; the entire corporate treasury buying pace is collectively slowing down. On the other hand, BitMine still holds 6.03 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, with 84% staked and gradually locked up.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term buying pressure is definitely reduced.
Second, just because treasury players aren't buying doesn't mean they're selling.
My view is simple.
Don't panic just because buying is slowing down. Strategy is now spending 9 times more on repurchasing preferred shares, which is building a firewall for itself—stabilizing the capital structure first, then planning for future coin purchases. This is not a signal that the market is about to drop; it's treasury players shifting from "charging ahead" to "holding steady."
What do you think? $BTC $SOL is bearish; in the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for $25.11 million, while short positions only saw $8.48 million liquidated. The number of long trades is about half that of shorts, but the amount is much larger, indicating that large long positions were liquidated, whereas shorts are mostly small trades. The funding rate has dropped for three consecutive periods to 0.0013%. The sign of the funding rate doesn't indicate direction, but it has been narrowing, showing fewer people are paying to go long. Leveraged longs are being squeezed out, and no new money is coming in to take their place. The chart's highs are still rising, so the uptrend structure hasn't broken. However, these highs were pushed up by leveraged longs, who have just been cleared once; the 109.82 level was tested but not held. Moving averages show a bearish alignment and have broken support, matching the liquidation direction, which I trust more. $920 million in open interest remains on the books; longs haven't fully cleared yet, and the next test will be at 101.56. Conditions to turn bullish: price must reclaim above 109.82 with open interest increasing simultaneously. If both occur, this bearish view is invalidated. Interactive Brokers has also launched ETH staking, using ZeroHash technology. But the announcement doesn't provide a single yield figure, nor does it mention the lock-up period or whether you can withdraw at any time.
On-chain interest is originally something you can get in full just by opening a wallet. When integrated into a brokerage account, there's an extra layer of channel and an extra layer of fees; what they are really selling is convenience and compliance.
$BTC
$ETH $ADA Market Overview ADA has long been in a fluctuating downward channel, with multiple rebounds being weak recoveries. The rebound heights are getting lower and lower, making it difficult to sustain a continuous trend. When the overall market warms up, ADA's gains lag behind public chain competitors like Ethereum and SOL; once the market pulls back, ADA often falls among the top in losses, making it a typical weak asset that follows declines but not rises. Recently, rumors have circulated that some trading platforms plan to delist ADA spot trading pairs, further suppressing market confidence and causing on-exchange funds to exit for safety. Core Reasons for the Decline 1. Continuous ecosystem contraction, lacking real incremental growth Cardano initially focused on being an academic public chain with peer-reviewed scientific narratives, but the implementation progress has been slow for a long time. On-chain TVL has shrunk significantly, DeFi activity is sluggish; once leading NFT marketplaces and on-chain data tools have successively shut down, daily active addresses and on-chain transactions continue to decline. The ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications, user loss is obvious, and there is no sustained capital or new user inflow to support the token price. The grand narrative has gradually been disproven by the market. 2. Competition in the sector squeezes space, narrative no longer scarce The smart contract public chain sector is highly competitive. SOL, ETH, and Avalanche continuously capture funds, while new public chains and modular chains keep diverting attention. ADA's "academic public chain" story is no longer fresh. Others are rapidly iterating their ecosystems, while ADA's update pace is slow. Market funds prefer chains with real users and high transaction activity, leading to continuous outflow from ADA. 3,$BTC 晚间阿月给出的看哆思路，目前已小幅度兑现，顺利走出八百余点空间，以太也有近40余点！及时跟上节奏的朋友，请留意查收，注意分批减仓。$ETH 愿后续继续顺势而行，稳扎稳打，步步为营，再创佳绩，不辜负每一份信任与坚持。
$ZEC
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
Don't rush to go all in before the CPI release; crude oil and U.S. Treasuries have already given their answers
The September CPI is coming tomorrow night, and the market expects the numbers to look bad this time. Core CPI month-over-month is expected to be between 0.2% and 0.24%, but the overall CPI year-over-year might jump directly from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%.
In simple terms, oil prices have pushed the overall number up, but core inflation is actually cooling down. The national average gasoline price in the U.S. is $4.33, nearly $1 more expensive than the same period last year. However, core components like rent, used cars, and insurance are stable, and the one-time factor of Verizon's price hike has also passed.
Crude oil is even more straightforward. Brent is fluctuating around 104-106, WTI around 91-93. Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked, diesel supply is very tight, and U.S. diesel is $0.70 more expensive than before the conflict. But Trump has said he won't attack Iran before the midterm elections, and Russian diesel exports are starting to loosen up, so oil prices have both ceilings and floors.
U.S. Treasuries are even more interesting. The 10-year yield just surged to a 20-plus-year high of 5.36%, but on Tuesday it reversed and fell back to around 5.19%. The reason is simple: as Asian stock markets fell, safe-haven funds flowed back into U.S. Treasuries. But this doesn't mean the inflation problem is solved; it's purely a risk-hedging demand triggered by the stock market drop.
My view: short-term is more likely to be volatile, no rush to expect a one-way move. If core CPI meets expectations, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to fall in the short term, providing a breather for growth stocks 正股暴跌，合约却暴涨——这笔钱我赚得心虚
今晚最魔幻的一幕：美股存储板块崩了。长鑫存储IPO首日暴涨466%，全球存储股吓尿——SK海力士跌10%，美光跌5%，闪迪正股开盘又跌近5%。
但OKX的SNDK合约，从1,403一口气拉到1,465，逆着正股狂飙，现在比正股还贵。我在1,437上的车，浮盈+5.5U。
这波拉升不是多头强，是空头太拥挤：白天恐慌盘把合约砸得比正股便宜一截，美股开盘利空落地，空头集中回补，直接把合约顶过了头。
所以我的选择：利润先装兜里。正股在跌、长鑫的竞争是真的、10/29还有财报大考——错位赚到的钱，是市场暂时寄存的，别当成本事。
你们玩过股币联动的合约吗？评论区聊聊。
风险提示：个人实盘记录，不构成投资建议，杠杆风险极高，请勿跟单。Bookmakers being investigated for advertising—what does this have to do with the crypto space?
Just saw that the FTC is targeting FanDuel and DraftKings, saying their ads might be misleading.
But notice one detail: Kalshi and Polymarket are not on the list.
That’s worth pondering.
Both involve betting, yet traditional gambling is being scrutinized while prediction markets are left alone.
Simply put, regulators currently treat these two as different species.
Gambling is gambling; prediction markets are more like financial instruments.
This is a sentiment boost for platforms like Polymarket, at least in the short term since they’re not under scrutiny.
But don’t celebrate too soon—the FTC’s review is still early, and it’s uncertain if the scope will expand later.
What I’m more curious about now is whether this wave of scrutiny will turn into free advertising for prediction markets.
#Tokenized assets accelerating expansion, how far are we from large-scale implementation?
#$ZEC In the past decade or so, the mainland's attitude toward Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a main line: from "defining it as a virtual commodity, warning of risks, isolating the financial system," gradually moving to "completely banning domestic virtual currency-related businesses + clearing out mining + continuously cracking down on speculation/money laundering/illegal financial activities." It was not a sudden one-size-fits-all ban but a step-by-step tightening. 1. 2013: Recognized as a "virtual commodity" but denied currency attributes - The People's Bank of China and five other ministries issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks": Bitcoin is not currency but a "specific virtual commodity" and cannot circulate as currency. - Financial institutions and payment institutions are prohibited from conducting Bitcoin exchange, clearing, custody, pricing, insurance, and other businesses. - Ordinary people can buy and sell at their own risk—this is considered "commodity trading," not a legal investment product, nor currency. - Core logic: prevent money laundering, maintain the legal status of the RMB, and keep risks outside the financial system. 2. 2017: Expanded from "Bitcoin" to "virtual currency/ICO," clearing trading platforms - The People's Bank of China and seven other departments issued the "Announcement on Preventing Risks of Token Issuance Financing": ICOs were defined as illegal public financing. - Domestic token issuance financing and virtual currency trading platforms were centrally cleaned up; Huobi/OKEx and others moved their domestic businesses overseas. - Attitude change: no longer just "Bitcoin speculation is risky," but treating token financing, platform matchmaking, and fundraising behaviors as financial chaos to be cracked down on. - At this time, individual coin speculation was not yet considered a crime, but platforms, coin issuance, and fundraising were already prohibited. 3. 2021: Completely tightenedGlassnode: BTC has twice found support at the ETF cost basis, with key support below at $77,500
According to on-chain institutional data from Glassnode, BTC has twice stabilized and rebounded at the ETF cost basis level, which has turned from previous resistance into support. If this defense line is breached, the next strong support is expected at the true market average of $77,500.
Opinion: The ETF cost line is the breakeven point for institutional holdings. The fact that support has held twice indicates strong buying pressure in this area. However, support is not an iron bottom; macro interest rate hike expectations and ETF capital outflows could break through this range. Holding near $81,500 is necessary for a rebound to have room; if broken, the price will directly target $77,500.
Contract trading strategy: Use the support level to play long positions with stop loss set below $77,500. If volume-driven break below $77,500 occurs, do not bottom-fish; follow the bearish trend. Also, continuously monitor daily ETF capital flows, as sustained outflows will weaken on-chain support effectiveness.
Do you think the ETF cost support will hold this time, or will it test $77,500?The biggest buyer of HYPE is not institutions: $1.26 billion, it is buying itself
Who is the biggest buyer of HYPE? Not institutions, not ETFs, it is itself. Data from October 10: Hyperliquid's cumulative protocol revenue has exceeded $1.4 billion, of which over $1.26 billion has been used to buy back HYPE. This number alone might not mean much, so let's find a reference — the total net asset value of all $HYPE spot ETFs combined is about $452 million.
In other words, the money the platform has spent on buybacks is nearly three times the total holdings of all ETFs combined. To put it simply: whether those institutions outside buy or not is actually not that important; the real main buyer is the platform's own daily revenue. Other projects rely on calling people in to support the market, but this one relies on real money buying in itself.
I used to focus on who was flowing in and out, but now I don't watch that anymore — that's just small money coming and going. Just keep an eye on the buyer who consistently scoops up every week without fail.Can a trading newbie who knows nothing achieve stable profits from the market? I will show you with 100 live trades.
No need to chew on obscure theories, no need to study complicated indicators every day.
You just need to build a simple, suitable set of trading rules for yourself: when to enter, how much to take profit, how much loss requires exit, and order position size. The rules don’t need to be complicated, just understandable and executable. (Trading strategy at the end of the article)
Today is the fifth trade of the SPCX opening strategy.
The market gave the short position a 2:1 risk-reward opportunity, and the short trade also successfully took profit. As for whether the market will continue to fall afterward or if there will be a big missed opportunity later, I don’t care; I only take the profits within my own trading strategy!
I will use several common market trading strategies to execute 100 live trades, no mysticism, no hype about huge profits, no hindsight bias. No need to chew on complex theories, no market direction prediction, just stick to fixed rules: entry conditions, take profit, stop loss, and position size all predetermined. Every trade is fully recorded, every profit and loss is shown truthfully. No reliance on one-time big wins, only looking at whether the strategy can produce positive results over the long term. As long as it can generate stable profits, anyone can replicate it.
Detailed strategy:
Only trade within the first four hours of the US stock market open, determine high and low points based on 15-minute candlesticks before and after the open, enter when price breaks out, go long on a breakout above the high, short on a breakout below the low. Stop loss is placed at the breakout candlestick’s high or low; if the stop loss is too tight, place it at the previous candlestick’s high or low. Risk-reward ratio 1:1 to 2:1.
SPCX is highly popular, with sufficient liquidity during opening hours and large volatility, making it a good candidate for breakout trades.
The market always has uncertainty; no strategy can guarantee profits forever. Even the best trading systems will encounter losing trades. What makes the difference is whether ordinary people can control their impulses and consistently follow their own rules.
$BTC $SPCX $ETH #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed Summary in one sentence: Countries that ban cryptocurrencies mostly do not "collapse," but generally fail to completely ban cryptocurrencies; the result is "the disappearance of the open market, the growth of underground/P2P/stablecoin markets," expanding regulatory blind spots, and many countries later shifting from bans to licensed regulation. 1. Typical outcomes fall into four categories 1. China: Completely cuts off the financial system, but demand moves underground/overseas - In 2021, exchanges were cleared out, trading was banned, and mining was phased out. - Goal achieved: The banking system, household savings, and power grid resources are no longer directly tied to highly volatile crypto speculation. - Cost: Trading moved to overseas platforms, USDT/stablecoin P2P, Hong Kong/offshore channels; retail investors find it difficult to defend their rights, and fraud and cross-border money laundering become harder to track. - Industry side: China-background teams like Binance and OKX went overseas; the domestic market missed the native CEX/stablecoin track but gained the digital RMB and Hong Kong compliance pilot field. - Conclusion: National financial security benefits are obvious, personal investor protection weakens, and industry spills over. 2. Nigeria: Ban failed, returned to licensing after 5 years - In 2021, the central bank prohibited banks from servicing crypto exchanges. - Result: Naira devaluation + inflation, people wanted USDT more; the market shifted from exchanges to P2P, OTC, and Telegram trading. - IMF later clearly stated: bans alone don’t work, leading to "digital dollarization" + regulatory black holes. - Around 2026, shifted to virtual asset regulatory framework and regulatory sandbox. - Conclusion: BanThanks to the market for giving me a V-shaped recovery, otherwise I would have been eating dirt today. Let's talk about my positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB:
Today, the four brothers I hold all took a hit, but who is the main decliner, who is affected by sentiment, can still be seen from the on-chain capital flows:
1. $BTC is the most resilient, with the cleanest on-chain funds. Although ETFs were redeemed for $450 million, whales took advantage of the plunge to buy 15,000 coins, so BTC's mid-term trend will be very strong.
Also, 81,000 is a strong support level at BTC's 400-day moving average, and every pullback quickly rebounds. From a long-term perspective, BTC is also in a consolidating upward trend.
2. $ETH is the weakest, with ETFs seeing net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $640 million. The capital side is too weak to hold.
Moreover, the selling pressure suspicion of 4,393 ETH transferred from the EF wallet to Kraken hasn't dissipated; 2,200 is a critical hard support level below.
3. SOL fell the hardest, rooted in a $120 million short position on Hyperliquid. ETFs only saw outflows of over $3 million, so the impact is minor. This token is being suppressed by derivatives sentiment, not by spot money running away.
4. $OKB followed the decline, but its fundamentals are very good: X Layer acquired xStocks, plans to seek SEC exemption to list 63 US stock tokens, plus deflationary burns, so the mid-term market cap can hold.
This kind of follow-the-fall decline has the potential to break out into an independent rally anytime, so holders with chips should hold tight!$CORE The circulating supply you observed decreased by 81 million tokens. Based on public information, this is very likely due to the excess tokens burned during the hard fork in early September, which have now been updated and included in the data platform's statistics, rather than a new burn operation by the project team in October. 🔍 Why did the circulating supply decrease by 81 million? Your screenshot shows the circulating supply dropping from about 1.5 billion to 1.479 billion, a decrease of approximately 81 million tokens. This is directly related to the previous v1.0.26 hard fork event: · September 3 hard fork: Core DAO permanently burned over 150 million excess CORE tokens at the protocol level. · Data update lag: The hard fork occurred in early September, but data platforms (such as OKX) had delayed updates to circulating supply statistics. The 1.5 billion you saw earlier was likely pre-burn outdated data; the current 1.479 billion reflects the latest statistics after deducting the burned tokens. · Not a new burn: The "circulation rate of 70.45%" and the 81 million change you mentioned reflect the burn that occurred in September being re-accounted for, not a new action by the project team in October. 🧐 Did the project team perform new burns in October? No. Since the October 1 announcement about "gradually handing over block production roles to independent validators," there have been no new updates on the official Twitter. The circulating supply changes you see are statistical updates of historical events, not new burn announcements. 🤔 Why has the project team been "silent"? The October 1 statement essentially is a#BlackRock shifts to overweight short-term bonds, downgrades US stock rating
$BLK underweighted US bonds for six years, now it has reversed.
▪️ Short-term US bonds rating upgraded to overweight, long-term US bonds raised from underweight to neutral
▪️ When first underweighted in October 2020, the 10-year yield was about 0.9%; now it is above 5.2%
▪️ US stock rating downgraded from overweight to neutral, agency MBS also lowered to neutral
▪️ The report believes the market's bet on Fed rate hikes is already too high
▪️ Interest rate swaps show traders expect at least three 25bp hikes in the next 12 months
The divergence is not about whether BlackRock is bullish on US stocks, but that it is doing two things simultaneously: locking in yields and avoiding volatility.
In the same report, the short end is favored because yields have reached a "lock-in" level, while the reason for downgrading US stocks is the "potential volatility brought by AI development." It clearly states it does not mean bearish on AI, just managing near-term risk — but this sentence itself reveals the divergence: AI capital expenditure is increasing, financing costs are high, and whether companies can generate returns above capital costs is becoming a screening criterion.
The direction is to wait and see — if rate hike expectations cool down, short bonds benefit; if expectations strengthen again, this allocation will need to be reassessed. Something happened in the Strait of Hormuz, so why is $BTC also suffering?
Originally, I thought that when a geopolitical conflict breaks out, Bitcoin could at least benefit a bit from its "digital gold" status. But this time, the intense attacks in the Strait of Hormuz actually slapped it down.
To be honest: this round of crisis is bearish for the crypto market, not bullish.
The logic is actually simple——
When the strait is hit, oil prices rise. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations return. When inflation returns, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates easily. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, assets like Bitcoin that generate no interest naturally get sold off first.
A few data points illustrate the issue:
During the days of escalating attacks, Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, dropping nearly 4% in a week. Ethereum and other major coins fell even harder.
More dramatically, nearly $970 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which $644 million were long positions. Leveraged funds fled faster than anyone else.
The most ironic thing is that during the most tense moments, gold and Bitcoin both fell together. The term "digital gold" temporarily doesn't hold up in the face of real inflation-driven geopolitical shocks.
So what should we watch next?
Don't just focus on the news headlines; focus on these two more practical things:
First, whether Brent crude oil prices can fall back below $100;
Second, the Federal Reserve's stance, whether it will be forced to continue tightening because of oil prices.
Once oil prices ease, the macro pressure on Bitcoin will lighten considerably.
#September CPI is about to be released, and Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed $ETH funding rate just turned negative. The total open interest across the network has dropped from daytime levels, down over 4% in the last 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing candle formed with significantly increased volume. Price rebounded upward but open interest continues to shrink; the total volume did not expand alongside the bulls' push.
The rebound accompanied by declining open interest indicates that shorts closing positions mainly pushed the price up. Sell orders driving price down are decreasing, and there is a lack of new short positions opening to apply downward pressure. Negative funding rate with shrinking open interest shows that although short sentiment is strong, actual selling pressure on the market has eased and the price is not continuing to be hammered down.
Looking at the larger timeframe, the current price is right at the 4-hour support near 2520. The daily EMA lines are smoothly expanding upward from bottom to top, maintaining an overall bullish trend. During today's dip, the price slowed its decline after hitting the 4-hour support. This candle closed without breaking the support level, and buy orders at the bottom absorbed this pullback.
For the outlook, I lean bullish. The large-scale 4-hour support below is holding well, and the short selling pressure has mostly been exhausted. I expect a recovery wave to the upside.
$BTC $SOL #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamarak says further rate hikes are still needed Looking at the wallet data left me speechless for a long time.
$ZEC currently has about 79% of the chips held by the top four addresses, which means this—everyone else in the market still watching this coin, guessing and trading, is all bundled together fighting over just these leftover crumbs. If this data were about any new coin, I wouldn’t even glance twice. People shout every day about whales controlling the market, but when it comes to an old-timer like ZEC that’s been around for years, the feeling is different, like someone quietly cleared the table.
Look at how it’s dropped 11.6% over the past 7 days, and the short-term price has been smashed down to around 1199. Doesn’t it look like a bunch of scared folks are rushing to get out before it’s completely dead? Then look at the daily chart—it kind of looks like a shallow pit has been dug all the way down. I’m not telling you to believe in this "double bottom"—analyzing this is fuzzier than fishing, with more wrong guesses than right ones. $ZEC SNDK previously said the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. Changxin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "the rise of Chinese chips," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
For those holding positions, if 1450 doesn't break, just hold on.To start with the conclusion: The price of $SKDD and the contract positions are telling two different stories.
In the past 24 hours, it rose from 8.5 to 9.9, an increase of about 15%, while during the same period, 239 perpetual contracts across the market were falling. But if you look at the funding rate: -0.28%, meaning the shorts are paying the longs.
What does this number mean? The funding rate is the "seat fee" between longs and shorts on perpetual contracts, settled every 8 hours, with a baseline of 0.01%. -0.28% is 28 times the baseline; if shorts hold continuously at this level for a month, they would cumulatively pay about 8% — shorts are literally burning money.
Two possibilities: one, the contract side believes this rally can't hold and keeps shorting to hedge; two, shorts are trapped inside, with growing unrealized losses, and the risk of a short squeeze from forced liquidations is building. Which is correct, the candlestick chart will tell you. But one thing is certain now: the price is rising, yet the contract side remains net short.
A word to those using leverage: if you don't understand the funding rate, don't lightly open shorts on "up days." Opening shorts on up days means you are the one paying rent.
$SKDD
Do you think the shorts will hold until 10, or will they be squeezed out first? Tonight marks the start of the Q3 earnings season, with the Big Four banks reporting first, and their results are diverging. Goldman Sachs posted net revenue of 18.68 billion, up more than 20% year-over-year, with stock trading surging 72%, exceeding expectations; JPMorgan Chase's revenue of 50.91 billion fell short of expectations, dropping 2% in pre-market; Citigroup's profits increased by 40%, while Wells Fargo's 21.87 billion was below expectations. One sweet, one salty—bank stocks are likely to split at tonight's open.
The real focus is the US September CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. The market expects the overall year-over-year rate to rise from 3.4% to around 3.6%, mainly driven by oil prices; core inflation expectations remain mostly unchanged. If the core softens a bit, long-term interest rates can ease; if it hardens, bets on rate hikes will resume.
In crypto, outflows are tightening: last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, the largest week since late June, and Ethereum about $542 million. Meanwhile, the S&P hit new highs, but crypto didn't keep up—there, corporate earnings are supporting prices; here, it's reliant on new money inflows, so any tightening reveals the difference.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering between 5.19 and 5.24 at high levels. Watch two key points: if the 30-year breaks 5.64, tension rises; Bitcoin can't break above 82,500, and buying pressure hasn't returned.
Before a long trip, I usually fill up the tank and review the route once, then don't touch it. Road conditions are unpredictable; the only thing you can prepare is fuel. Just jotting this down as a personal note, not investment advice. It can be proven that Maji probably used algorithmic trading. Maji, who was supposed to be liquidated at 2490, saw the liquidation price drop to 2396 as the market fell, narrowly avoiding liquidation once again. It can be concluded that the possibility of him being directly liquidated is extremely low. The only scenario that could get him liquidated is a market that rises slowly and then crashes suddenly. This causes Maji to add positions during the rise and cut losses during the fall, continuously eroding the principal.$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is turning its Layer-2 infrastructure into lasting economic activity. More applications can attract users, but raw transaction counts do not tell the whole story. Fees, liquidity, active users, and competition from other scaling networks all matter. Another important distinction: growth across Arbitrum does not automatically mean equal demand for the ARB token.#Russia and the US Advance Diesel Supply Cooperation, Disagreements Remain on Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
Host's Commentary
Russia and the US are advancing cooperation on diesel supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that energy departments and companies from both sides are in talks, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. The US also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refining facilities, or it may affect weapons and intelligence support.
However, the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has not been implemented yet. Trump announced it, but both sides have not jointly confirmed it. Ukraine says Russia is still attacking its energy facilities. The agreement is just a declaration; details have not been finalized.
For the market, increased diesel supply is positive and can suppress refined oil prices. But the energy ceasefire is uncertain, and the Middle East remains unstable, so oil prices won't drop in the short term. Today, CL rose 0.38%, BZ fell 0.12%, showing a muted reaction.
I still hold over 82,800 long contracts on Bitcoin, with a stop loss at 81,500 and a target of 86,000. I won't bet on a single direction before the CPI release. ETFs saw a total outflow of 1.2 billion last week, 30-year US Treasury yields are at 5.7%, and macro conditions remain tight. Long positions are short-term plays for a rebound and will be reduced once targets are reached.
The Russia-US diesel cooperation is a variable, not a direction. Focus on the details, not the headlines. Don't chase rallies or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI/PPI are coming, the crypto circle awaits the whistle (｀・ω・´)
This week's crypto market script is almost entirely bet on the CPI and PPI on the 14th. Previously, the Fed minutes were hawkish, hinting at possible rate hikes by year-end; but the nonfarm payrolls and PCE were soft, pushing the October rate hike probability down to about 18%. Don't be quick to relax, the earlier inflation decline hides statistical adjustments, the hawks have not left the stage (￣﹏￣)
This round of data is a short-term watershed. If oil prices raise overall inflation but core inflation cools moderately, expectations to pause rate hikes in October will dominate, $BTC could surge to 87200, $ETH could recover to 2560-2650 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conversely, if core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will quickly return, US Treasury yields will rise, and crypto prices will be under pressure: BTC may fall back to 80000-81300, ETH could drop below 2470 and test 2370 (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Retail and initial jobless claims can serve as auxiliary indicators to observe economic strength and policy clues. Don't go all in before the data, keep an eye on BTC 84100 and ETH 2560 as key levels, and wait for clear direction before acting~ (￣▽￣)~*#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% If the US stock market officially launches 23-hour trading on weekdays this December, the liquidity of altcoins may further decrease, and many altcoins will go to zero in the future. Therefore, before December is the golden window for junk altcoin pump-and-dump by manipulators to lucky buyers. For me personally, besides allocating a few particularly promising bluechip altcoins, I will also allocate part of my position to $CRCL and $COIN stocks. In the future, the returns of these two coin stocks