Orbit Post Sitemap

Understanding the deep V-shaped BTC volatility logic from yesterday makes everything clear! Yesterday's deep V-shaped BTC movement seemed thrilling but was actually logically clear. Intraday, a rapid drop was triggered by concentrated long liquidations, with over 170,000 people liquidated, and long position liquidations accounting for the vast majority, causing the market to instantly panic. Then, as liquidity replenished, the market rebounded, but it must be clear that this rebound was only a technical correction without new capital inflow, and not a signal of trend reversal. The subsequent decline was mainly due to continued weakness in institutional ETF buying, lacking effective support to sustain the market. Currently, the market shows three core structural changes: First, top whales continue to accumulate coins, with total holdings steadily increasing, and ETF funds shifting from net outflow to slight net inflow, quietly concentrating long-term chips; Second, the market capital structure is completely diverging, with institutional funds leveraging against the trend while retail investors continue to panic exit, accelerating chip exchanges; Third, macroeconomic uncertainty makes short-term trends more prone to volatile shakeouts rather than one-sided breakouts. In the face of this structural divergence, blindly chasing highs or selling lows easily leads to being "hit from both sides." Instead of being led by short-term fluctuations, it is better to closely watch whale holdings and ETF fund flows, the two core indicators. When chips continue to concentrate in long-term holders and institutional funds gradually recover, that is the real signal worth positioning for. Until then, patience and maintaining your own pace are more important than guessing short-term ups and downs. #September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution Core Long-Short Logic Dimensions 📈 Bullish Signals 📉 Bearish Risks Technical Aspect: Support at 82,972 is effective; after surging to $83,709, resistance encountered; MACD red bars shrinking; moving averages in bearish alignment Capital Aspect: ETF net inflow of $176 million yesterday; exchange holdings dropped to 2.67 million units; Strategy continues to increase holdings. Previous week saw ETF net outflow of $679 million; ETH ETF outflows for 9 consecutive days Macro Aspect: Williams rules out rate hikes in 2027; October rate hike probability about 18%-20%; CPI exceeding expectations probability not low; December rate hike probability about 70% Institutions: Saylor clearly states "the bull market has arrived," target 100,000; Wintermute warns Bitcoin remains sensitive to US stock market volatility, downside risk is relatively high Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 63 (Greed), market not in extreme panic; forecast market bets on a drop to $80,000 within October with about 56% probability $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla delivery exceeding expectations shifts focus to profit recovery $BTC What is still missing for BTC's rebound? The triple test of CPI, real interest rates, and spot buying The key to BTC's rebound is not just whether CPI cools down, but whether inflation data can lower real interest rates and ultimately translate into sustained spot buying. ① CPI below expectations opens space for monetary policy shift; ② Real interest rates fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC; ③ Continuous net inflow of ETF funds proves that incremental capital is truly entering the market. Forward-looking judgment: If favorable CPI does not lead to a decline in real interest rates and a return of spot funds, the rebound is more likely a short-term sentiment repair; Only when macro pressure eases and spot accumulation continues can BTC hope to move from an oversold rebound to a trend reversal. The real signal is to see if there is new capital buying behind the rise.#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Brothers, Brother Ci speaks ahead of time. At 8:30 tonight, the September CPI will be released, don't rush to bet on the direction. Focus on the core, not the overall. The overall year-on-year expectation rose from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%, largely contributed by oil prices; the core month-on-month may drop from 0.3% to 0.2%. If the core cools down, it means inflation hasn't spread, and the expectation to pause rate hikes will be stronger; if the core also exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will immediately rise. Officials are still arguing. Harker, Williams, and Collins all said there might be another hike this year, but no one is clear about October. CME shows: about 77% chance of no change, about 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Officials are hawkish, market is dovish, this gap is the source of tonight's volatility. BTC is fluctuating around 82,000, down slightly 0.15% in 24 hours, direction undecided. If the core is mild and the dollar and US bonds fall back, look for a rebound at 83,500-84,500; if the core is strong, first look at support at 81,500-82,000, break that and look at 80,000. Control positions before the data, wait for it to land before following funds. ⚠️ The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice, the market is volatile, profits and losses are your own responsibility. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC $BTC $ETH $XAU 🪤🪤🪤 After the last big nonfarm payrolls pump and dump, it’s obvious 📉📉 Wall Street’s attitude is clear—they’re not buying it. Bitcoin also dropped below support right after another pump and dump, then started moving sideways~ 🥱🥱 However, tonight will most likely set the direction. The CPI released at 8:30 PM tonight will determine whether the Fed can reignite rate hike expectations 🆘🆘 Personally, I think tonight’s data will be close to expectations; the market has already accepted that inflation has risen compared to last month~ If it exceeds expectations, even just a little, it would be quite bearish! As for being below expectations, I don’t think that’s possible, since the US-Iran conflict keeps oil prices at a fairly high level, so inflation can’t come down! Also, Mr. Trump said he wouldn’t escalate strikes on Iran before the midterms? I think he’ll break that promise; Iran is currently strengthening its defense systems during the ceasefire, so maybe, at any moment, they’ll exchange heavy rocket fire again 🌚🌚 Regarding the midterms, I think Trump will most likely fail; his approval rating is already below the minimum threshold! Additionally, yesterday’s deep V-shaped rebound was caused by the chain reaction from the Korean stock market crash, combined with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling to support levels, triggering massive short-covering and reverse buying, which pushed the market back up to the previous drop point—there was no other way~ #September CPI released tonight, Fed rate hike disagreements await resolution #After sharp drop, Korean stocks narrow rebound; can semiconductor buying continue? Gold and Bitcoin had another dull day, moving sideways with no decent direction all day. Just at this time, the market started to press down again, which is a bit frustrating to watch. There is a big event tonight—the CPI data release. I checked the report from CICC; the market expectations and current pricing are actually quite close, meaning tonight's data is unlikely to be too surprising. What the capital market fears most is never bad news, but uncertainty. Before the data is out, funds hold back and no one dares to move; once it lands, regardless of good or bad, the boot drops and the market will move accordingly. In fact, bad news is not that scary then. From a trading perspective, a slight drop in advance is not necessarily a bad thing. Panic selling comes out first, so the selling pressure when the data is released at night will be smaller, releasing some pressure. The worst is holding firm during the day and then a big bearish candle smashing down right after the data release at night—that would be painful. One thing to be cautious about: altcoins are weakening again. Bitcoin and gold are just sideways, but altcoins have already dropped, indicating funds are shrinking into core assets and risk appetite is cooling down. At times like this, don't rush to buy altcoins; wait to see what the CPI says tonight, confirm the direction before acting, and keep some bullets in hand—it’s always more comfortable than being fully invested and taking hits. #September CPI released tonight, Fed rate hike divergence to be resolved $BTC's current market situation is very similar to that of 2022; it feels like the low point should be around March next year STRK’S RALLY HAS A CALENDAR PROBLEM. ⏳ $STRK gained 214% in 30 days. Now it’s down roughly 16% in 24 hours. Tomorrow, Oct. 15, another 127 MILLION STRK unlock: 🔹 66.61M for early contributors 🔹 60.39M for investors That’s approximately 1.3% of total supply becoming unlocked—not 127M tokens automatically sold. The rally was spectacular. The next test is whether demand absorbs potential new supply. #STRK #Starknet #TokenUnlock #DailyOrbit Sideways for three days waiting for CPI, what I see is the bears closing the net BTC has been sideways at 83400 for a whole day, with volatility narrowing. The comment section is again shouting "Can't fall anymore, bad news is fully priced in, it will rally directly." This kind of low-volume sideways movement is never a bottom; it's a buildup before a trend change, and tonight the direction is most likely down. At 8:30, CPI is expected year-on-year at 3.6%-3.7%, up from the previous 3.4%, and month-on-month 0.6%, the largest in five months. The key is not how bad the data is, but that the bulls have already priced in "bad news fully priced, rate cuts coming" — the price is sideways, priced for easing expectations. Once the data lands, with 3.7% inflation in front of us and October rate cuts falling through, the mismatch between expectations and reality means even meeting expectations is bad news, let alone exceeding them. $BTC Above 83400, between 84800 and 85600 lies the trapped positions from recent failed rallies, so rebounds are all resistance; breaking below 82200 will sweep the stop-loss orders accumulated over three days of sideways movement, and 80000 is just the first stop. The longer the sideways, the deeper the fall. $ETH 2500 is even weaker, unable to produce a decent rebound. Once BTC breaks down, ETH will first look at 2450, then 2400; don't hold onto illusions. My thinking is clear: don't chase shorts before the data, wait for the bulls' last counterattack after the data lands, pushing to resistance levels — that is the comfortable entry point for shorts. The rate cut story has been told for a month; tonight let the data speak. The above is only market observation and does not constitute trading advice September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30. Oil prices are stuck around $100, and the overall CPI is basically expected to rise, with the market anticipating about 3.7%. The real focus is on the core CPI—if it can't be contained, a rate hike in December is inevitable. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.2%, so money just sitting there earns that yield; not many are willing to take risks in the crypto space. BTC is currently at 84,000, hovering around this level for the past couple of days. My judgment is that once the data comes out, it will first drop a bit. The 82,000 area is the first support level to catch it; if it dips and recovers, it's fine, but if it can't hold, it will need to find support lower down. Reduce positions before the data release; the drop will actually be a good entry point, so don't follow the crowd out. $BTC#SanDisk and Micron Decline, ChangXin Technology Progress Under Focus US storage chip and data storage stocks continue to fall, with the market reassessing competition in China, but ChangXin's R&D progress does not yet equate to mass production or market share changes. Reuters reported on October 13 in the US Eastern morning session that Micron fell about 4.5%, SanDisk about 4.3%; these are intraday figures, not closing prices. ChangXin stated that the fifth-generation DRAM platform began mass production in September; additionally, according to media citing executives, progress has been made on the higher-density 4F² architecture, while server DDR5 products are still in planning. Micron mainly focuses on DRAM, SanDisk primarily on NAND flash, so the competitive impact paths differ; the simultaneous decline may also reflect semiconductor valuation and AI spending concerns. Subsequent observations will focus on ChangXin's product yield, shipment volume, customer validation, and Micron and SanDisk's financial reports regarding price and demand. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Price is falling, but the bulls haven't left yet. What has changed? ETH quickly dropped from 2,507 to 2,481 in the past hour, a decline of 1.07%, with a significant increase in trading volume. However, the proportion of long positions on the contract side remains as high as 73.5%, and the funding rate stays positive at 0.0031%, meaning the bulls are still paying to hold their positions. Why is this worth noting? The price is declining, but the crowding of long positions hasn't decreased. In the past 24 hours, ETH long liquidations totaled 10.45 million, and short liquidations totaled 10.13 million, almost balanced. Meanwhile, whales are offloading — an institution liquidated 52,000 ETH at an average price of 2,632, profiting 24.49 million; another OG address just deposited 6,369 ETH to Kraken. Which observation is more supported? It supports "long crowding coexisting with spot selling pressure." But ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 24.83 million yesterday, ending 10 consecutive days of net outflows, with Grayscale Mini ETH alone accounting for 16.72 million. ETFs are receiving, whales are selling, and the bulls' leverage hasn't left. Below 2,388 there is a 946 million long liquidation zone, above 2,636 there is a 1.047 billion short liquidation zone. Spot is receiving, whales are running, bulls are holding — CPI data lands tonight, which side will move first? $ETH Price is falling, but shorts are still paying. What has changed? BTC dropped from 83,449 to 83,133 in the past hour, breaking below the Bollinger lower band at 83,148, currently testing support at 83,100. However, the funding rate has fallen to -0.0029%, indicating shorts are still paying to hold their positions. Why is this noteworthy? The price is declining, but the rate is negative, showing that shorts are actively increasing their positions during the drop. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations reached 11.15 million, exceeding long liquidations of 8.36 million. Contract open interest increased by 11.14% in 24 hours to 61.75 billion, with leverage rapidly rebuilding. Which observation is more supported? It supports the "long-short standoff amid intensified short crowding" scenario. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 176 million yesterday, with FBTC alone accounting for 103 million, indicating spot funds are accumulating. The shorts increasing positions and ETF inflows form a standoff, both sides waiting for tonight's CPI. CPI expectations rose year-over-year to 3.6%. 83,300 is the watershed level; breaking below it would test 82,500. Shorts are adding positions, ETFs are absorbing, and at the moment CPI is released—who will break first? $BTC The real place worth watching is where the drops differ. Even though the market is all green, why do some coins "rise first then fall," while others "just keep falling"? When I was watching the order books of WLD and FIL yesterday, I actually felt a bit chilled inside. Not the kind of panic chill, but the kind of "oh, so this is how the chips are changing hands" chill. WLD dropped 9.88% yesterday and then fell another 3.21% today, with the direction completely consistent over two days. FIL, on the other hand, rose 3.27% yesterday and only gave back 3.88% today, almost standing still over two days, just tracing an arc of rising then falling. Here's a detail many overlook: the drop percentages are calculated separately by day. So FIL looks like it "also fell today," but it actually didn't bleed continuously; it was first pushed up, then brought down. WLD, however, truly fell two days in a row, with a very unified directional sense. So what exactly is the market trading? I think it's trading "who's in a hurry to leave." Both WLD and FIL have trading volumes still above 100M, indicating chips are indeed changing hands, with some selling and some buying. But TRUMP only fell 1.35% today, with volume at just 65M — it fell less not because someone was rushing to buy, but because no one was in a hurry to move at all. A drop on shrinking volume and a drop on expanding volume reflect completely different emotional temperatures behind them. From the perspective of capital preference, this looks more like a phase of divergence rather than a start or continuation. The varieties with volume-driven consecutive drops indicate sellers still have strength; those with shrinking volume and slight drops might instead be temporarily forgotten. What really needs to be warned about is⚖️ Boss Eleven VS Brother Maji, a comparison of two top-level trading strategies. Boss Eleven: High-frequency swing trading, quick in and out. Nearly 30-day win rate of 78%, total return +531%. Both BTC and ETH are fully long with 50x leverage, decisively stop loss and exit when wrong (BTC lost 27,000 U, ETH lost 12,000 U), never holding losing positions. $BTC Brother Maji: Heavy position hedging (BTC short + ETH long), long-term holding with strong endurance, betting on market divergence, often accompanied by huge floating losses and volatility. Neither model is absolutely better or worse: the former emphasizes risk control and turnover, the latter bets on trend and patience. Ordinary traders should never blindly copy high leverage! $ETH #BTC Treasury Preferred Stock Financing Heats Up #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, Profit Performance to be Revealed Suddenly understand why Warren Buffett only holds short-term Treasury bonds. The 20-year US Treasury yield reaching 6% could trigger a sell-off equivalent to $110 billion. Right now it's 5.68%. A difference of 0.32 percentage points. The key is not the yield, but the futures. Futures can choose which bond to deliver. When yields rise, the 20-year bond immediately becomes the cheapest. So, institutions hedging to lock in exposure start selling. When many sell, prices fall. Prices fall, yields rise even more. More people sell. This is not a one-time sell-off, but a self-reinforcing cycle. Yesterday at the supermarket, I saw an AI shopping assistant say "Welcome" three times, but later realized it wasn’t calling me. Some signals are like this too—seeming to call you, but actually aimed at others. Why not focus on the 10-year? Because the 20-year is more sensitive. If interest rates rise by 1%, it falls more, so it breaks first. Stocks are pressured in two ways: Treasuries give you 5%+ risk-free; Corporate borrowing becomes more expensive. The expensive batch of tech stocks can’t hold up first. There’s an even earlier signal. When the 10-year hits 5.9%, fund managers will give up on stocks. It’s currently 5.22%. This number is more important to watch than 6%, because it’s not theoretical, it’s behavioral. But I want to say the opposite. Neither of these numbers is a death line. Interest rates are still on the way up, prices can fall first. The most dangerous thing is not interest rates hitting 6%, but everyone still waiting for 6%. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. The overall year-on-year is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, the largest rise in nearly 5 months. The rebound in energy prices is the main reason. Core CPI is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than last month's 0.3%. This is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. The market currently only prices in about a 17% chance of a rate hike, whereas when the core month-on-month was 0.3% last month, the probability once surged to 70%, indicating that the market is betting on a "one-time recalibration" rather than a new round of tightening. So tonight, there is only one number to watch: if the core month-on-month holds at 0.2%, it is very likely to stay put; if it jumps to 0.3%, the October meeting will immediately become tense. PPI on Thursday will add more pressure. $BTC $ETHRight now, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are playing dead, all waiting for the US September CPI data. August inflation was 3.4%, with the market expecting it to rise to 3.6% in September, driven by oil prices. However, the core CPI is only 2.5%. The midterm elections are in November, and historically, the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in the month before an election. This CPI report is the litmus test for rate hike expectations. Ethereum is consolidating above 2500; with moderate core inflation, this consolidation can continue; if it spikes, it will face pressure first. Let's wait for tonight's data release. #SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution $BTC has dropped 3.22% across the entire market in 24 hours, yet the top gainers list is dominated by a series of small sectors with a maximum market cap of only $130 million. Farcaster, Clanker, and Launchpad all point to the same trend: on-chain social networking combined with one-click token issuance has been revived for speculation, and Pre-IPO tokenization is also a fresh target sought by the same group of people. Where is the money coming from? Look at stablecoins. USDT market cap is down 0.02% in 24 hours, with no new issuance and no new funds entering OTC. The fear and greed index has fallen from 71 a week ago to 62, indicating a retreat in sentiment, with heat concentrated only in a few small pools. This is a relocation of existing funds, moving from mainstream to small caps in search of volatility. My judgment is that this rotation won't last long; it is short-term speculation within a weak market, not yet a full altcoin season. The end signal will be seen in the Farcaster and Clanker sectors: when their 24-hour gains both turn negative and the top of the leaderboard changes themes, this round will be over. We have to wait for USDT market cap to start increasing and the fear and greed index to return above 71 before new money can take over.In the market, Bitcoin is still oscillating above support. CPI data will be released tonight, and the market may experience significant volatility, so caution is needed. The larger trend remains in a corrective phase, with right-side confirmation ongoing, and structural support still above 75,000. U.S. Treasury yields have declined and adjusted over the past two days, which has eased upward pressure on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. With the midterm elections approaching, asset performance generally tends to be less favorable at this time. On a smaller scale, Bitcoin is also moving on the right side, confirming support above 81,000. It's difficult to break higher as there is a lot of trapped supply above. To initiate a second upward move, a deep pullback is needed first. Patience.#Rebound without volume, has the capital pattern really shifted? The data gives a mixed answer. On October 13, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $21.47 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity products contributing the main buying, ending the continuous outflow state. The capital direction showed a turning point, but the overall volume was small, belonging to institutional tentative absorption. Ethereum simultaneously turned positive, with only $10,100 inflow, temporarily halting selling pressure after ten consecutive trading days of outflow; the increment is almost negligible. Meanwhile, SOL funds continue to bleed, with large net outflows for two consecutive days, indicating the previously expected capital resilience does not exist. Currently, the market only has a slight partial capital return and has not welcomed large-scale incremental entry. The ETF capital flow after the U.S. stock market opens tonight is the key to verifying whether this round of recovery can continue. 84,000 is an important resistance level. If capital inflow can continue, it is expected to attempt to break through this position; if buying quickly fades, this small recovery rally will stop here. $BTC $ETH $SOL CPI night, don't just focus on the numbers Tonight's CPI, the real suspense isn't about the year-over-year percentage points, but that funds have long since gone their separate ways. $BTC: On-chain support, institutions hesitant. Coinbase premium turns negative, institutions are cashing out; but the number of addresses holding 100–1000 coins on-chain hits a new high, with whales buying over 80,000 coins in three weeks. There's support at the bottom, but chasing highs is weak. If core CPI is 0.2%, BTC could reach 84,000–85,000; if 0.3%, the 81,000 support will be further tested. $ETH: Shorts paying the price, waiting for ETF turnaround. Spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding 500 million last week, BlackRock reduced nearly 500 million. But leverage ratio dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates turned negative, raising short position costs. If support holds, short covering could trigger a rebound; the premise is ETF stops bleeding first, which hasn't happened yet. Gold: Speculation retreats, allocation advances. Futures longs withdraw, but gold ETFs continue to attract funds, with record net inflows in Q3; central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, September's increase is the largest this year. Different buyers, different patience: BTC relies on whales, gold on central banks. Don't bet on data, bet on fund divergence. BTC waits for institutions to return, ETH waits for ETFs to stop bleeding, gold has solid logic underpinning it. #SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution #BTC spot ETF outflows again, can institutional buying warm up? #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardIn the past week, BTC fell by 3.82%, but gold, which has always been considered a safe-haven asset, also dropped by 0.96%. Both "safe-haven assets" weakened simultaneously—where exactly did the money go? Let's start with the news. Today's three data points: BTC is currently priced at $82,444.3 (down 3.82% over the past week), gold futures at $4,176.0 (down 0.96% intraday, spot price $4,159.90), and the US Dollar Index at 102.49 (down 0.09% intraday); meanwhile, US spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $696.8 million over the last 5 trading days. Notably, the dollar has not strengthened significantly, but both gold and BTC are falling—this indicates that the selling pressure is not coming from the "dollar appreciation" channel. Looking at the impact on capital flows: the price drivers for gold and BTC are completely different—gold's core buying comes from central bank gold purchases, real interest rates, and safe-haven demand; BTC's core marginal buying comes from spot ETFs and risk budgets. When both decline simultaneously, it usually means one of two things: either the market is concentrating on liquidity withdrawal (cash demand rises, and almost all assets are sold), or gold is taking profits after a prior rally while BTC is passively deleveraging. Currently, the situation is closer to the second scenario—gold has retreated from above $4,300, while BTC is weakening amid accelerating ETF net outflows. Implications for BTC: this shows that the "safe-haven narrative" did not support BTC this time. The logic over the past few months was that "gold and BTC are both inflation-hedging assets," but when risk budgets contract, the market alsoRegarding the current continuous decline of $SNDK, my personal view is that concerns are triggered by domestic storage competition, but a technological breakthrough does not mean immediate large-scale commercialization, nor does it directly replace SanDisk's products. Moreover, its own fundamentals are also strong, including $MU, coupled with increased volatility caused by CPI and interest rate expectations putting pressure on tech stocks. These are all within expectations. At that time, making this trade was indeed impulsive, leading to this mysterious operation. Next, I will watch whether its support level at 1400 will be broken, followed by an average price pull-up. You can also wait for the earnings report data on the 29th at the end of the month to make a choice. Those trapped in the position, don't be afraid. I personally believe SanDisk's earnings data will exceed high expectations. This is my personal opinion! For reference only #BTC Spot ETF Sees Net Outflow Again, Can Institutional Buying Warm Up? The boss has something to say BTC spot ETF funds have weakened again. On October 9, there was an inflow of 21.13 million, but by October 12, there was a net outflow of 65.4 million, all from BlackRock IBIT, with the other 11 products unchanged. Previously, from October 7 to 8, there was a cumulative outflow of 731 million. ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 85.4 million on the same day, with a combined single-day outflow of 151 million for both product types. I believe institutional buying is unlikely to warm up in the short term. The reason is that the outflow is concentrated in IBIT, indicating it is not a widespread reduction but redemption pressure on a single product. ETH is weaker, with continuous outflows and inherently insufficient buying power. My long position at 82,800 was stopped out today; I am now flat, waiting for CPI. No chasing highs or panic selling; I won’t catch a falling knife before the direction is clear. The CPI release will show inflation and interest rate expectations. If the data is hawkish, ETF redemptions may continue. If dovish, funds might flow back. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Short term looks volatile, mid-term waiting for signals. Set stop losses properly, don’t hold through losses. The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on positions. Good luck.#Strive增持3311枚BTC，高息融资能否持续？ Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) purchased 3,311 BTC at an average price of about $84,500 between October 5 and 9, raising its holdings to 32,773 BTC, valued at approximately $2.7 billion. This is the largest single increase since the Semler merger in January.‌ The key lies in the source of funds. Strive mainly relies on SATA perpetual preferred stock financing, currently yielding 13%-14%, and has launched a new class of SATS preferred stock aiming to raise $500 million with a fixed dividend rate of 15%, subordinated to SATA.‌‌ The core contradiction is: financing costs are rigid, Bitcoin returns are not. Dividends of 13%-15% must be paid in cash. The company currently holds about $310 million in cash, but if all SATS are issued, the annual dividend obligation alone would reach $75 million.‌ More worrisome is the dilution effect. Total holdings grew by 11.2%, but the coin amount per common share increased by only 1.7%—most of the growth was diluted by the new preferred stock.‌ Whether the flywheel can continue depends on two conditions: Bitcoin’s long-term compound returns remain stably above 13%-15%, and the stock trading premium is maintained. Once the premium narrows and issuance becomes more expensive, the pace of buying coins slows, and the market compresses the premium again—this is the natural reflexivity of treasury companies.‌$BTC $ETH $ZEC Brother Maji's "BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short" combination looks like a hedge on the surface, but in essence, it's still a high-leverage tough hold. The BTC short position's profit expanding indicates the short-term bearish judgment hit the rhythm; however, the HYPE short position has an unrealized loss exceeding four million, barely surviving on funding fees. If the short squeeze continues, the risk will rapidly escalate. The ETH long position is still at a loss, and its direction conflictsSaylor said Bitcoin will return above 100,000 He said this on Bloomberg TV. The exact words were that the bull market has just begun. His original words were: He said the coin price bottomed slightly below 60,000. In the coming years, it will rise 20% to 30% annually. In plain language: The premise of this statement is that someone keeps buying. He plans to issue more credit securities to buy. MSCI will decide something this Friday. They might remove Strategy from the global index. If removed, the money tracking the index will have to sell passively. A company that relies on issuing bonds to buy coins, if kicked out of the index, its financing costs will rise. This is more worth watching than short-term coin price fluctuations. #BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover? $BTCLet's talk about tonight's CPI and give partners a brief overview! First, tonight's scenario is the opposite of the past two years: the Federal Reserve is not cutting rates but raising them — on September 16, it just raised by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%. Unanimously approved, Williams and Collins are still signaling another rate hike within the year. The logic is not "low inflation → rate cut → rally," but "high inflation → tightening → pressure on the crypto market." Market consensus: overall CPI month-over-month 0.4% → 0.6%, year-over-year 3.4% → 3.6%-3.7%, driven by gasoline (September average price $4.33/gallon at a record high), fully priced in. The only decisive factor is core CPI month-over-month, expected at 0.2%, with institutions divided between 0.16%-0.24%. ≤0.2% would confirm a pause in October and cool down rate hike expectations for December; ≥0.3% would indicate energy costs passing through to airfare and bring October rate hikes back on the table. BTC current price 83,200-83,600, down 34% from the all-time high, with three concerns: ETF net outflow about $450 million in October, ETH outflows for 9-10 consecutive days; 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.2%-5.3%, DXY at 102.5 hitting an 18-month high; correlation with S&P at 81%, tonight ASML and tomorrow TSMC will simultaneously test AI sentiment. Asymmetric odds: 45% probability matches expectations but already priced in, no profit; softer outcome (20%) is the real positive, targeting 84,000-87,400 short squeeze zone; Above expectations (25%) targets 82,218-81,300; significantly higher (10%) breaks 80,100 triggering about $600 million long liquidation at 79,269. Timing: at 20:30, avoid trading during the first three minutes of spikes; from 20:35-21:00 watch US Treasury and DXY to set direction; 21:30 US stock market open sets the tone. Followed by PPI, Fed's Waller speech, and FOMC on October 27-28. The biggest risk is not the data but many still using the old rate cut script to go long. Position management takes priority over directional judgment. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Overall CPI: MoM +0.6%, YoY 3.6% (previous 3.4%, mainly due to rising oil prices) • Core CPI (excluding energy and food, more focused on by the Fed): MoM +0.2%, YoY 2.5% (previous YoY 2.4%) Hawkish (Collins, Barkin, Harker) Viewpoint: Energy price increases carry transmission risks; AI-related investments, transportation, accommodation, and service prices are sticky; inflation decline is not solid enough, another 25bp hike is necessary before year-end to prevent inflation rebound. In short: Better to hike once more to avoid inflation becoming entrenched again. Neutral (represented by Williams) Viewpoint: Acceptable to have one more hike this year, but it depends on core services; should not be led by one-off supply shocks like oil prices; does not support consecutive hikes, nor a sustained hiking cycle; decisions should be based on subsequent data series, not a single month’s CPI. Implied dovish logic (market trading benchmark) Current CME FedWatch pricing: about 77% probability of no change in October, meaning the mainstream expectation is likely to hold steady in October, keeping the possibility of a hike in December. Underlying understanding: If price increases are purely gasoline-related, it is an external supply shock, not overheating domestic demand, so immediate hikes may not be necessary; but if core CPI, housing, and core services rise above expectations, it will be interpreted as endogenous inflation, strengthening hawkish influence. $ETH $BTC #September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence to be resolved About 80% of the market has priced in no rate hike in October; if CPI meets expectations, there’s no story. The real danger lies in the chain of repricing after an unexpected CPI. BTC ETF saw over 700 million outflows in the first week, the negative sentiment has been fully absorbed. Core CPI at 0.2% → the market realizes it has overreacted, a rebound could come anytime. Core CPI above 0.3% → the narrative breaks down, first breaking 80,000, then watching 77.5–75k. US September CPI will be released tonight (Beijing time 20:30), expected year-on-year 3.6% (previous 3.4%), core 2.5%. Williams said there may be one more rate hike this year, with about a 77% probability of no change in October. CPI higher than expected: US stocks under pressure, growth stocks weaker BTC likely to fall back to test 81,000 support (risk appetite + liquidity sensitive) Gold falls first then fluctuates (real yields rise) CPI lower than expected: US stocks rebound BTC more likely to challenge resistance above 84,000 Gold benefits from yield decline and weaker dollar Current reference levels: $BTC: support at 81,000, resistance at 84,000-84,500, effective breakout targets 86,500+ Gold $XAU: support at 4100-4120, resistance at 4217-4250, breaking 4100 may retest near 4000 The data itself is important, but more critical is the reaction of US Treasury yields and the dollar after the release. The market currently prices in no change in October and possibly one more hike in December; any surprise will quickly revise expectations. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC smart capital will not exit at this time. Data shows that only one-tenth of the capital exits because the cost is around 67,000, and this capital just happens to be at the repayment period. The rest of the capital is around 70,000, and at this time, if Bitcoin doesn't reach 100,000, they will not consider leaving. It is predicted that at the 100,000 mark, there will likely be short-term profit-taking to flatten positions. As for how it will move later, it still depends on market expectations and policy factors. Because the higher it goes, the higher new highs it will reach.$ASTER Perpetual trading has become one of crypto’s most competitive sectors. Aster is trying to compete in that environment, where execution, liquidity and user experience matter more than flashy promises. OKX lists ASTER among its active spot markets. The real test is whether traders continue using the platform when market excitement cools and competition becomes even stronger.$ETH price surged to around 2530 this afternoon, which startled me. That candlestick pierced the previous high but closed back down. The liquidity above was swept out, and then it fell back. The surge up was quick, and the drop back was also quick; the 1-hour candlestick formed a Pin Bar. The recent drop downward was the same situation. The 15-minute candlestick pierced the previous low but closed back up. This candlestick left a lower shadow, indicating a false breakout sweeping liquidity below. Breaking the previous low did not bring more selling pressure, and the price quickly recovered above 2496. Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, the price has been consolidating. The highs are getting lower, the lows are rising, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. On smaller timeframes, liquidity is being swept on both sides; the market has not formed a one-sided trend, and volatility has slowed down accordingly. Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, the current price is holding at the key 2500 level. During the dip, volume has been shrinking, and the bears have not opened up space. The daily EMA50 is also supporting below. So, I subjectively lean bullish; the larger timeframe support is taking effect here, and the market is expected to stabilize first and then move higher. $BTC $SOL #September CPI is announced tonight, and the Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution #Lumentum Optical Communication Business Expansion, Order Performance Yet to Be Revealed Many people may not have heard of Lumentum, but in AI optical communication, it is a company that truly delivers. Its CEO said in Tokyo a few days ago that optical components are completely sold out, with production capacity booked until early 2029. What is this used for? These are the optical modules in data centers that enable data to fly quickly between servers. Without them, AI data centers are just piles of scrap metal. But guess what? Even though production capacity is sold out, the stock price only rose 0.39% that day. Why? Because in the same week, OpenAI's revenue guidance was reduced by 20 billion, Firmus withdrew its IPO, and the financial outlook for AI was repeatedly dampened. The supply side says they can't keep up, but the demand side is retreating. This divergence is very clear. What are the impacts? First, money is still being poured into AI infrastructure, and hardware orders are real. Lumentum's production capacity booked until 2029 indicates that data center construction has not stopped. The hardware costs for miners and AI computing power projects will not decrease in the short term. But this is the fundamental support for the computing power track, not a short-term speculation. Second, the market's attitude toward AI is changing. Previously, any association with AI would cause a rise, but now even companies with sold-out production capacity see little stock price movement. This shows that capital is starting to focus on actual returns rather than just presentations. AI concept coins in the crypto space will see even more differentiation going forward. Those with real computing power and product implementation will survive, while those only telling stories will be eliminated. What do you think? $BTC $2500 ETH, which side are you betting on tonight? ETF outflows have lasted 10 days straight, BitMine's buying has stopped, ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.03, and 2400 was pierced twice—tonight's CPI report could be the needle that decides whether you profit or get liquidated. First, the surface view: after the double dip at 2400, ETH is grinding near 2500, funding rates have normalized, but momentum remains bearish, and institutional buying has stopped. 2500 is only suitable for reducing positions or waiting, not for opening new ones. Spot and perpetual contracts are squeezed between 2490–2530. Your 2500 is almost today's midpoint. A week ago it was still at 2720, two weeks ago two spikes pushed it down to just above 2400. There was no support above 2700, and while there was bottom-fishing at 2400, no trend-following capital took over. This is a weak shakeout after deleveraging, not a main upward trend. First thing: ETFs are running out, BitMine has finished buying—the clearest buying force is exiting. The US spot ETH ETF has seen outflows for about 10 consecutive trading days as of 10/12, roughly $700–800 million outflow since late September. On 10/13, there was a slight net inflow of about $24.8 million, driven by Grayscale staking mini-trusts, just stopping the bleeding, not a reversal. Over the past 30 days, ETH ETFs still have net outflows, while BTC ETFs have net inflows of about $2 billion in the same period. BitMine (Tom Lee) holds about 6.03 million ETH, roughly 4.9% of circulating supply, with about 5.07 million staked. He said he stopped buying after reaching 5%, and the company also said they have basically finished buying. This round's clearest treasury buying is exiting. In plain language: Institutions have stopped buying, ETFs are bleeding out, who are you still waiting for to catch the bag? Second thing: ETH/BTC falling below 0.03 means going long ETH is essentially taking a beta weaker than the overall market. ETH/BTC fell below 0.03 on 10/12 for the first time since August 19. With your current 2500 ETH price and BTC around 83,000, the ratio is exactly at 0.03. ETH outperformed BTC in Q3, but in October funds are moving back to the more liquid BTC. Going long ETH is not going long Ethereum itself, but going long a beta weaker than the market. With treasury buying stopped and ETFs still bleeding, ETH lacks the conditions for an independent rally. Until ETH/BTC reclaims and holds above 0.03, prioritize risk budget on BTC; ETH should only be a satellite position. Third thing: tonight's CPI is the real trade. Federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%. On September 16, a unanimous 25bp hike was the first since 2023. The October 7 minutes: most officials think another hike this year is appropriate, inflation risks are upward. The market prices zero chance of a rate cut. Consensus for tonight 20:30: Overall CPI YoY 3.6% (previous 3.4%), MoM about 0.6% Core CPI YoY 2.4%–2.5%, MoM about 0.2% The overall jump is priced in; the trade focuses on the core. If core YoY rises to 2.5% or MoM ≥ 0.3%, the probability of an October hike will be repriced upward from 20%, yields and USD will move first, and ETH will be dumped. If core MoM ≤ 0.2% and YoY stays at 2.4%, shorts will cover. Bull vs. bear, you decide: On the bullish side: Double dip at 2400, shadows on 10/8 and 10/13 were bought back Funding rates near zero, no crowded trades Staking ratio about 34%, circulating supply thinning Interactive Brokers opened ETH staking, channels expanding Still up 30–50% over 90 days, a pullback during a rebound On the bearish side: ETF outflows for 10 consecutive days, about $700–800 million BitMine buying stopped, clearest treasury buying exited ETH/BTC below 0.03, weaker than the market Net issuance of 778,000 ETH in 2026, burns cover only 2%, net inflation Staking yields 3%–5%, 10-year US Treasury yields 5.1%–5.2%, no competition Tonight's CPI, core above expectations will dump ETH Trading strategy If long, reduce half between 2540–2580 to lock in profits from the 10/13 spike. Before CPI, set stop loss at cost or below 2470; don't let one data point turn unrealized gains into losses. After data release, only trade on close confirmation; don't chase the first spike. To go long, conditions must be met: 4-hour close above 2550, then add if pullback to 2520 holds. Stop loss below 2470. First target 2620, second target 2700–2740. If daily close doesn't reclaim 2580, treat it as a retracement, exit at 2620, no big picture. To go short, conditions must be met: 4-hour close below 2480, failed rebound at 2500 before entering. Stop loss above 2530. First target 2410, second target 2350. Only if daily close is below 2400, set targets to 2300/2250. Shorts above 2400 reduce at 2410. Bottom fishing only for one pattern: Pierce 2410–2430 again and close above 2450 within 15 minutes. Stop loss 2380. This is the third test, use half normal position size. If it doesn't recover, accept it; don't average down on the spike. ETH now is like itself in 2025— Weekly bull not dead, daily bear not over. 2500 is the observation zone, 2400 is the bull-bear boundary, 2580 is the rebound true-false boundary. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【OP突然暴涨20%，Uniswap这是给老东家发红包了？】 $OP 今天一度涨近20%，最高摸到0.162美元，导火索是Uniswap旗下的Unichain转向OP Enterprise，测试网迁移已经推进，主网计划10月29日切换。Uniswap自己做L2，现在又把生产运营交给Optimism的企业服务，有点新故事可以讲了。 OP单日成交额从前一天约5900万美元冲到1.58亿美元，资金明显活跃起来了。但成交放大不等于全是现货买盘，价格冲高后也已经回落。 OP最近一个月涨了约60%，除了Unichain，市场还在交易协议升级和2027年启动回购的预期。问题是，生态采用OP Stack，不等于所有链上收入都会流进OP代币。 我倾向于先看多头能不能守住这轮涨幅，而不是看见大阳线就追。后面主网上线、回购机制落地，如果真实需求和代币价值捕获跟得上，这波才有机会从炒预期变成炒基本面；否则，利好兑现也可能直接变成下车现场。有件比较诡异的现象，不知道大家有没有留意。 $ETH ETH在2500附近已经横盘将近两天。 社群里面到处都是声音：双底做出来了，行情稳了，可以抄底。 但拉远看大周期，感受反而偏谨慎。$BTC 现在这一段温柔横盘，很容易制造企稳的假象。 不少散户看见已经跌了400刀，就会产生“这里就是底部”的想法，选择进场抄底。 温水煮青蛙，往往就是发生在这种阶段。 记住一句话：真正的大底，很少会给到所有人舒服横盘的抄底机会。 现阶段不急于重仓博弈方向，先观察横盘之后的破局选择。#高盛Q3业绩超预期，美银行财报现分化 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ 伦交所挂牌事件，聪明钱看清的业务边界 伦敦时段盘前，不少资金在重新审视这则伦交所挂牌消息。聪明钱分得很清楚：Core 代币本身并未登陆伦交所，上市标的是 DeFi Technologies 旗下 Valour 发行的 1VBS，一款 BTC 质押 ETP。社区广为流传的 “Core 登陆伦交所” 只是宣传话术，不等于代币直接挂牌交易。 这只 ETP 受英国 FCA 监管，底层为实物 BTC，由 Valour 做机构冷存，委托至 Core 网络完成非托管质押，标称年化约 1.4%。投资者买入产品，间接获取 BTC 价格波动与质押收益。产品 2025 年 9 月先对专业投资者开放，2026 年 1 月拿到许可后面向英国普通散户，Core 在整套业务里只提供底层 Satoshi-P 技术支持。 机构资金愿意接入这套质押基础设施，但回避直接买入代币叙事。你会把挂单位置放在哪，止损如何划定？ $CORE $BTC $ETH $SOL Detailed analysis of ETH's decline in the past 24 hours 1. Macroeconomic factors US inflation-related data was stronger than expected, leading the market to lower rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. BTC led the decline, while ETH showed higher volatility with a larger drop than Bitcoin. ​ 2. Spot funds ETH spot ETFs shifted from net inflows to continuous net outflows, with institutions reducing positions in phases; a large amount of profit-taking accumulated from previous rises, with whales transferring ETH from cold wallets to exchanges to take profits. Market funds shifted to other hot sectors, with no new major positive catalysts in the Ethereum ecosystem, resulting in weak buying support. ​ 3. Futures market (decline amplifier) After the price broke below short-term key support levels, many short-term long positions stopped out and triggered forced liquidations. Forced liquidation sell orders continued to push prices lower, creating a negative cascade; funding rates turned negative, the futures market was dominated by shorts, and short-term long position confidence collapsed. ​ 4. Technical pattern Candlesticks broke below short-term moving averages, which turned from support into resistance. Multiple small rebounds failed to hold, with heavy selling pressure above; the RSI indicator declined, remaining in a weak zone, indicating insufficient momentum for a short-term long rebound. ​ 5. Fundamentals Layer 2 and RWA narratives currently lack new catalysts; no news is stimulating new capital inflows, previous positives have been priced in, and there is a lack of new stories to support price increases. Key points to watch going forward: whether BTC can stop falling, whether ETF funds will return, and if there is a short-term rebound opportunity caused by crowded short positions in futures. #ETH fluctuated after touching $2500 兄弟们，四年一轮回，不是玄学，是代码写好的钟 !！ $BTC 在8万多磨人，群里又开始怀疑周期。别急，先看底层规则。 中本聪定死一条：总量2100万，每10分钟出块，每21万个块奖励减半。算一下：210000×10分钟≈3.99年。所以“四年一轮”，不是分析师编的，是代码里转出来的。 回头看，节奏全对得上： 2012减半→冲1000→门头沟崩盘 2016减半→冲2万→2018深熊 2020减半→冲6.9万→FTX暴雷 2024减半→2025摸高12.6万→现在回调磨底 2026年10月，离高点回撤快一年。按历史，这叫“减半后消化期”——最无聊、最洗人、也最像底。 数据也在印证：过去10天，持币10到10000枚的巨鲸，悄悄加了4万多枚；9月底美国现货ETF周流入冲到24亿。散户恐慌割肉，大资金接带血筹码。 周期本质不是技术，是人性：绝望筑底，犹豫上涨，狂热见顶，崩溃收场。智商不如耐心，预测不如仓位。别盼V反，磨底就是用来洗快钱的。 齿轮没停，下一轮还是那个节奏 $BTC #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #Meta releases MuseWonder, stock price rises over 3% 🔥My first reaction when I saw this news: Oh. Not out of disrespect, I just really don't feel much. AI giants launch new products, stock prices rise, that's natural. But if you think that means AI concept coins in crypto will also take off, I advise you to calm down first. What's the current state of the market? Bitcoin is stuck at 84,000, options volatility is at a five-year low, U.S. Treasury yields at 5.6% are suppressing off-exchange funds. ETFs are still flowing out, and the tax season selling pressure isn't over. Money is just lying in U.S. Treasuries earning interest; who has the leisure to come to crypto to speculate on AI concept coins? Meta's stock rises, fine, but on our side, things stay flat. One product launch can't change the capital flow. So don't get carried away. Hold your spot positions firmly, avoid contracts, keep your USDT. Chasing AI concept coins at times like this is no different from throwing money blindly. Wait. Wait for this tax season to pass, wait for macro conditions to ease, then talk about opportunities. Would you chase AI coins because of Meta's product? Be honest in the comments.项目的好消息，先查谁拿到好处 $ARB 我会先看一笔交易到底需要买什么。 Arbitrum One的手续费用以太币支付，ARB主要承担治理功能。 这意味着，链上交易增加，并不会按笔强制用户买入ARB。 生态越繁荣，治理权可能越受重视，但这个价值怎么被市场认可，还需要具体依据。 所以后面看到交易量创新高，我会继续追问：增长有没有形成持续的代币需求？这一步没讲清楚，业务热闹和币价上涨之间就还有距离。 $LDO 我会先查收益记在谁的账户上。 通过Lido参与质押，获得的是代表质押资产和收益的stETH；LDO承担的是治理职能。 因此，质押规模扩大，不能直接理解成每个LDO持有人都多收了一份利息。 我更想看的是，规模增长带来多少协议收入，以及治理最终怎样安排这些收入。只看存进来的资产越来越多，还不足以把持币收益算出来。 $ONDO 我会先确认买到的是什么权利。 官方把ONDO定义为治理代币。 研究它时，我不会直接把项目旗下金融产品的收益，当成持币人的收益。 产品卖得好值得关注，但还得查清楚：新增收入归谁，持币人通过什么机制受益。 这轮我更愿意顺着钱的去向研究，少给一句“赛道前景好”加分。The CPI will be announced tonight. For specific views, refer to the two previous quotes which have already made things clear. To summarize simply, the outlook is rather pessimistic and bearish, expecting a somewhat hawkish deviation in the data. At this moment, the probability of a rate hike in October is 21.6%. Given the high oil prices in September, a CPI rebound is inevitable. The only point of contention is how strong the rebound will be—whether it meets expectations or exceeds them. Among the four figures, if two annual rates and one overall monthly rate final data are higher than the previous values but lower than expected, then the recent decline might be due to the market being overly pessimistic and oversold, and the data release could trigger a rebound. If the data exceeds expectations, then the US stock market might face a mass sell-off. As for data below expectations, I hardly dare to imagine that; it neither aligns with reality nor justifies adjustments to the Fed's rate expectations. Unless Trump really wants to prop up the US stock market again at this moment, but with the US-Iran situation and high oil prices looming, it’s somewhat difficult for the US stock market to rally further in the short term. He has no reason to pay more sunk costs when both chambers are destined to lose; better to focus on work after the midterms. Among the four CPI figures, the most critical and currently the only expected value lower than the previous is the core monthly rate. If this data can truly be controlled, risk markets might not perform too badly tonight. In summary, from a broader perspective, the best outcome for tonight’s CPI and tomorrow night’s PPI is to allow the already peaking US Treasury yields to continue declining, so that risk markets can fundamentally improve. An overall monthly rate around 0.5% and a core monthly rate of 0.2% or lower is the most favorable combination for the bond market; core 0.1 Macro Perspective: Williams Rules Out Rate Hikes in 2027, Boosts Short-Term Sentiment New York Fed President Williams stated that there is no need for further rate hikes in 2027, although he still maintains the stance that another rate hike may occur this year. Interpretation: Williams' statement itself does not change the rate hike expectations for this year (October/December), but by explicitly ruling out a tightening path in 2027, it suggests that the current rate hike cycle is nearing its end. The market interprets this as a "forward liquidity inflection point" signal, weakening the dollar and boosting Asian stock markets. Bitcoin rose 1.5% to nearly $83,900 accordingly. 📊 Special Importance of CPI Data: The September FOMC minutes showed that 19 officials unanimously supported a rate hike in September, with most considering another hike before year-end as appropriate. The probability of a December hike has risen to about 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last key inflation data before the October meeting; if the data is below expectations, it may cool December rate hike expectations; if it exceeds expectations, it will reinforce pricing for "at least one more hike before year-end." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 CPI will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and the main focus for Bitcoin is just one data point: core CPI. $BTC Core CPI for August is 2.4%, and the current expectation remains 2.4%. Everyone is watching whether the overall CPI will hit 3.7%, but that increase mainly comes from expensive oil, with Brent crude now at $106. What really determines Bitcoin's direction is the core CPI. $ZEC If the core CPI rises above 2.5%, it means oil prices have started to seep into other areas. Shipping costs, wages, and various goods will gradually increase, making the Fed more confident to raise rates. U.S. Treasury yields hitting 5.3% and Bitcoin at 84,000 makes a downward move more likely. $ETH If the core remains steady at 2.4%, then this round is just about oil. The Fed will most likely not raise rates at the end of the month, U.S. Treasuries can catch a breather, and Bitcoin has a chance to ease up. The reason the Fed is so focused on the core CPI is because they were scared by the 1970s. In 1973, inflation quadrupled again. When inflation eased, the Fed slowly cut rates, thinking the problem was over. But oil prices seeped into everything, and when Iran was in turmoil in 1979, the second wave was even worse than the first. Rates were raised to 20% to finally contain it. This time, Iran is leading again. So tonight, don’t just look at the headline big number; go straight to the core CPI line. Whether it’s 2.4% or 2.5%, that 0.1 difference is the difference between Bitcoin going up or down. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Wednesday, 2026.10.14 The US stock market started to fluctuate yesterday, and Bitcoin followed suit. Tonight, the CPI data will be released, and tomorrow the PPI data. Let's see what expectations these two data points will create for the Federal Reserve and the market. On October 13, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was 175 million, Ethereum ETF net inflow was 24.8 million. Market Analysis Currently, Bitcoin's market seems to still be waiting for tonight's CPI. US stock futures have already started to fall, and Bitcoin has been dragged down as well. However, a drop before the data release is usually a good sign, as there is often a possibility of a reversal after the announcement. The 84,000 level now presents strong resistance, having failed to break through multiple times. It can be regarded as a short-term right shoulder peak, and the price may continue to fluctuate around the 81,000-84,000 range. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 55 (Neutral) 现价83297一线贴着400日均线上沿震荡，多头在81000附近有防御，但上方83639的十倍杠杆多头清算堆形成明显压制。宏观端美债收益率走高，利率维持概率上升，美元流动性没有进一步宽松，风险资产缺乏直接推动。24小时多头清算占5.92亿，说明短线追多资金已被清洗一部分，但未完全释放。 刚送完一单爬六楼，汗还没擦，盘面这位置不能急着追。若非农前情绪胶着，83600至83750无法放量站上，价格更可能向下回补81000区域。当前主策略给83600至83750区域空单，止盈81600，防守止损84200上方。 如果价格先回踩81000至81300并出现企稳，再转多不迟，止盈83100，止损80400。 $BTC #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 @OKX星球 Fund managers’ stated 5.9% switching point for the 10Y Treasury is useful precisely because the yield is still around 5.2% and no broad rotation has followed. It frames 6% as a decision threshold, not a forecast. With 19% already reallocating, positioning may change before consensus does, while the timing remains uncertain. #BofAStockBondDivide