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#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue reached a historic high, mainly benefiting from the AI chip foundry boom. However, the market is more focused on profit quality: new process ramp-up and overseas factory construction have increased costs, raising doubts about whether the gross margin can hold at 65%-67% and if profits can match the revenue. Earlier AI expectations have been fully priced in, so funds chose to cash out before the earnings report, leading to a stock price pullback. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC's revenue record before October 15 had already been absorbed by the market. If we wait until the financial report day to see it as a positive surprise, the investment rhythm might have been delayed.
On October 8, the company had already announced September revenue data: a 54.6% year-over-year increase, and a slight 0.6% month-over-month decrease. This variance carries deep significance — the strong long-term growth trend does not necessarily mean every month must set a new record compared to the previous month. Minor monthly fluctuations are not enough to shake the big narrative of AI demand The market opened broadly in the red this morning 😵. The higher-than-expected CPI data caused a general pullback in the Crypto market. It's clear that it's being lumped into the same risk valuation framework as AI stocks. Sectors like RWA have dropped more than 6%. Ajian believes that what the market cares about now isn't $BTC or $ETH or any particular token, but rather interest rates, financing costs, and whether overvalued assets can hold up.
I've also emphasized before that in the current high-interest-rate economic environment, crypto asset valuations are walking a tightrope and are especially sensitive to market sentiment. Short-term funds love to target these kinds of assets first. If the token you hold long-term doesn't have enough income support, it's risky in this environment. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The Dow fell 0.09%, almost unchanged; the Nasdaq dropped 1.88%. Two worlds in the same trading day.
Putting these two numbers together makes it clear: money hasn't left the US stock market; it has shifted from tech stocks to healthcare and consumer staples. The information technology sector fell 3% in a single day, while healthcare actually rose 2.4%. Eli Lilly and Merck rose by three to four points, a typical defensive rotation.
The root cause is still oil. In the past ten days or so, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly increased. On October 11, daily crude oil passing through the strait was only about 2.9 million barrels, compared to over 20 million barrels a few days ago. Brent crude briefly rose above $106, gasoline prices increased by more than 30% year-over-year, and the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.2%, the 2-year yield approached 4.9%, and New York Fed's Williams also said another rate hike this year makes sense.
Assets with high valuations fear this combination the most. Nvidia fell 3.2%, Meta dropped 3.3%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 10% in five days, and CoreWeave dropped 15% in one day.
I tend to believe that as long as oil prices remain above $100, any rebound in tech stocks can only be seen as a bounce. Today, we first look at TSMC's earnings report. If the AI demand story is strong enough, semiconductors may get a breather; if not, this round of adjustment may not be over. After that, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 awaits.
The xdm tech position can be held for now, adding on dips. In this kind of market, less trading is better. The midterm elections are approaching, and major turning points may come for the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. #Saudi Aramco headquarters attacked, crude oil supply under focus This CPI move has dashed the previous optimistic expectations of "peak rate hikes." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
In the short term, the macro trend is pulling downward. Rising rate hike expectations, increasing US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar mean risk assets are generally struggling. BTC will not strengthen independently.
But in the medium term, there is long-term capital buying around 80,000. The ETF's single-day counter-trend inflow of 167 million is no lie. It shows that someone is willing to support at this level.
At this stage, the biggest taboo is trying to guess the bottom. Whether 80,000 can hold depends on upcoming PPI data and the FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, position sizing is more important than judgment. # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. With the release of this CPI data, many people have actually realized that the previously repeated market narrative of "inflation easing, rate cuts by year-end" is not so certain.
Everyone had assumed that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle was already over, so assets without interest like $BTC and $ETH could maintain their valuations in a high interest rate environment.
However, this time both CPI and core inflation exceeded expectations, which directly overturned that premise—the US Treasury yields surged, and now even holding risk-free US Treasuries can yield over 5%, so institutions naturally don't want to stay in volatile, cash-flow-free crypto; the continuous net outflows from ETFs are the most concrete evidence.
The chain of liquidations only accelerated the decline speed a bit; the real problem is that most of the current buyers are still old whales in the crypto space doing short-term trades, who won't hold for more than a few months before leaving.
In contrast, gold fell but quickly rebounded, supported by long-term allocations from central banks and sovereign wealth funds; they don't gamble on whether rates will rise next month. This kind of capital resilience is something the crypto space simply can't match right now.
Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. The above analysis is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC’s record revenue figures were already public before October 15, so presenting them as an unexpected positive surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue increased 54.6% year-over-year but slipped 0.6% compared with August. This highlights an important distinction: strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean revenue will rise every month.
#TSMCOct15Earnings # TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Why so strong?
● Advanced process fully loaded: 3nm accounts for about 30% of wafer revenue, 5nm about 33%, and 7nm and below total 77%; 2nm has also started scaling (about 11%), mainly benefiting from Apple's A20 Pro/M6 chips and AMD Venice server CPUs.
● Continuous investment in AI infrastructure: Next-generation AI processors like NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform and AMD MI450X are queued up competing for capacity, and CoWoS advanced packaging is also in short supply.
● Capital expenditure significantly increased: Full-year capital expenditure for 2026 has been raised from $52-56 billion to $60-64 billion, with 70-80% invested in advanced processes. #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight Brothers, my personal analysis is that oil prices will surge to $100 before the midterm elections. First, let's talk about the US-Iran situation. Recently, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, then the Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Iran, and Iran continues to stir up the Middle East situation. Iran's goal is very clear: to control oil as a powerful weapon. Excluding seasonal factors, global demand for oil is roughly the same every year, but now that Iran controls the oil, global demand cannot be met, which will definitely affect everyone's lives, and this impact will reflect on countries. To solve this problem, there must be US-Iran talks, but the US has no sincere intention to negotiate. Currently, the US is still trying to find solutions, but the root cause remains in the Middle East. So oil prices definitely won't come down anytime soon and may even hit previous highs because Iran will surely try to finalize the talks before the midterm elections. Otherwise, once the midterms are over, the "King" will definitely attack. So oil prices may not continue to rise, but they certainly won't fall.
Now about Russia and Ukraine, the war has lasted almost five years. Now, even if they want to stop, they can't. One side must admit defeat. If they wanted to negotiate, Russia and Ukraine would have done so earlier and wouldn't have fought this long. Ukraine definitely wants to negotiate, but Russia refuses. So Ukraine attacks Russia's energy facilities daily to pressure Russia through other energy-concerned countries. But Russia has no other strengths except stubbornness. So no one knows when oil prices will come down. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous oneFrom October 14 to 15, the crypto market experienced a sharp plunge. Bitcoin fell below $81,000, hitting an intraday low of about $80,500; Ethereum dropped below $2,400, once reaching approximately $2,317 on October 15, with a nearly 5% decline over the past week. Data from Coinglass shows that the total market liquidation exceeded $1.1 billion, with Ethereum long positions liquidated at about $330 million, the highest among all cryptocurrencies. Notably, this was not an isolated "crypto-only event." During the same period, the US Nasdaq index closed down about 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell about 1.1%, gold dropped below $4,100, silver plunged sharply, and South Korean memory chip giant stocks crashed suddenly. This time, crypto assets behaved more like "high beta assets" in the global synchronized deleveraging of risk assets. 2. Direct trigger: CPI exceeded expectations, renewed hawkish rate hike expectations Let's look at the data. The US September CPI released on October 14 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6% and above August's 3.4%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%) and 0.3% month-on-month (expected 0.2%). Gasoline prices contributed more than half of the monthly increase, driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions (Brent crude oil once rose to about $105). Why this CPI data is particularly critical. The key lies in the changed policy background: the Federal Reserve just completed its first rate hike of 2023 in September, and the market was previously debating "whether#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
What I find truly worth looking at in TSMC's earnings report is not how much revenue has increased, but how long the AI business can continue to thrive.
The Q3 revenue has been announced, reaching NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year growth of about 50%, hitting a new high. This figure indicates that demand for AI chips remains strong, but it also means the market had already set high expectations for today's earnings report.
Next, focus on three areas: first, the gross margin—whether it can remain stable under the pressure of expanding 2nm process capacity; second, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity—whether AI chip orders can continue to support growth; third, the demand outlook for Q4 and 2027.
My view is that the AI industry cannot be easily underestimated for now, but we also shouldn't blindly chase the stock just because of performance growth. TSMC's good performance only proves strong demand in the supply chain, not that all AI concept stocks are worth buying.
Especially now, the market is trading not just on current profits but also on growth expectations for the next few years. If the earnings beat expectations but management does not provide stronger signals for future growth, the stock price may still surge and then fall back.
Tonight, I am more focused on management's statements about future orders and capital expenditures. What truly determines how far the AI market can go is not how much money is made today, but whether it can continue to exceed expectations next year.
What do you think? Will this TSMC earnings report continue to fuel the AI market, or is it a case of good news being priced in and funds taking the opportunity to exit? #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a bit late in the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters are different. It is still unclear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC doesn't mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can still exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, What Other Highlights Are There in the October 15 Earnings Report? Today the overall market remains weak and volatile, with mainstream coins under pressure, but a few small and mid-cap coins have developed independent trends, which is quite interesting.
The most obvious is $WAL, a decentralized storage project in the Sui ecosystem. Its 24-hour trading volume and price increase are both very strong, showing clear signs of concentrated capital inflow, mainly driven by the narrative of AI data infrastructure. However, there is still unlocking pressure ahead. Currently, it is more a result of narrative-driven and concentrated trading rather than real demand validation. A sharp rise and a sound logic are two different things...
There is also capital movement in other directions. Tokens related to AI Agents like Quack AI (Q) continue to attract attention. Bitway (BTW), with a relatively large market cap, also appears on the heat charts. Directions like storage, AI, and privacy, including tokens like ZEC and STRK, have decent weekly performance, showing localized heat.
Overall, today is a case of structural hotspots rather than broad resonance. When the market is weak, capital tends to concentrate on targets with narratives and trading volume, but sentiment fades quickly and pullbacks happen fast. For $WAL, the key going forward is whether trading volume can be maintained and product progress can keep up, not just focusing on single-day gains.
The above is purely market observation and personal judgment, not investment advice. The market changes quickly, so partners should do their own research.I just checked the long-short ratio of BTC perpetual contracts on OKX, which is 1.8 now, while it was around 1.25 a day ago.
The price dropped more than 3% in one day, but the number of long positions actually increased as the price fell. At first, I thought big players were accumulating at the bottom. However, when I looked at the top 5% segment, the numbers didn’t add up: the long-short ratio by headcount is 1.23, but by position size it’s only 0.94. So there are more people going long, but the money is slightly more on the short side.
Therefore, the main buyers catching the falling knife are small accounts; the big players haven’t shifted their positions to the long side. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, then I’ll admit I was wrong.
Do you usually watch the ratio by number of people or by position size?
$BTC The $MON chain is a good public chain with excellent engineering capabilities, capable of running large-scale DAPPs without issues. However, it lacks distinctiveness and proprietary new technologies. It still mainly relies on the usual EVM+ optimized model. Given the current intense competition among public chains, with strong technical innovations like NEAR's Nightshade sharding, Sui's Move language object model, and AvAX's subchain architecture, $MON appears quite ordinary.Alpenglow能讓Solana最終確認快99%？10月21日要驗證三件事
Solana預定於10月21日啟用Alpenglow，取代TowerBFT共識機制。官方目標是將最終確認時間從約12.8秒縮短至150毫秒。
但投資人不能只看這個數字，真正值得觀察的是：
① 實際確認速度
150毫秒目前仍是技術目標，升級後要看主網能否穩定接近預期。
② 驗證者遷移是否順利
驗證者需使用基於Agave 4.3.0的客戶端。大型共識機制轉換，網路穩定性是關鍵。
③ 鏈上數據如何解讀
Alpenglow將驗證者投票移出一般交易紀錄，可能導致TPS與交易筆數結構性下降，但不代表真實用戶需求減少。
此外，10月21日首先導入的是Votor，Rotor資料傳播升級仍屬後續階段。
我的判斷是，Alpenglow具備重要技術意義，但最終成效仍須由主網實測證明。若升級延期、網路不穩，或確認速度未達預期，就需要重新評估市場原本的樂觀預期。
技術規格是目標，主網驗證才是證據。
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ $SOL $BTC fell 3.27% in 24 hours, dropping from 84,117.6 to 80,188 before rebounding to 80,908. During this period, the bulls suffered more losses: long position liquidations totaled $84.79 million, while shorts only liquidated $33.67 million. I am bearish. The funding rates for the last three periods were 0.0015%, -0.0018%, and -0.0041%, becoming increasingly negative, indicating that shorts are willing to pay to hold positions. This structure usually leads to further price declines. Options trading shows a put/call ratio of 1.05, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.91, with new orders leaning towards buying protection. DVOL at 38.8 is not high; if PPI turns hotter, volatility has room to expand. Contract open interest remains at $7.48 billion, leverage has not been fully cleaned out, and if macro pressure increases, longs will be liquidated further. The expectation is for the price to first break below 80,188. Conditions for a bullish reversal: price must reclaim 84,117.6, and funding rates return to positive. If PPI cools down, the macro pressure will ease, and the main factor will be leverage unwinding itself, which will have a much smaller impact.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电第三季度营收创下新高，市场关注的焦点已经转向盈利能力：AI芯片需求能否继续支撑高毛利率，以及先进制程扩产带来的成本压力是否会影响利润增长。
对于投资者来说，营收增长只是第一层信号。更重要的是利润增速能否跟上，以及管理层对第四季度AI需求和资本开支的判断。
如果利润率保持韧性，说明台积电不仅获得了AI订单，还保留了较强的定价能力；反之，即使营收创新高，也可能面临市场对估值的重新审视。
台积电的财报，实际上也是观察全球AI产业链景气度的重要窗口。
补充一个重要时间点：截至截图所示的北京时间12:15，台积电第三季度完整财报尚未公布，今天14:00才召开业绩说明会。已确认的是第三季度营收约1.49万亿新台币，同比增长约50%；市场预计净利润也可能创纪录，但仍属于预测。
所以这篇帖子用“盈利表现待揭晓”是准确的，不宜提前写成“净利润已经创新高”。$CRWV dropped more than 16% today and has plummeted over 50% in the past 5 months.
The reason is its debt. CoreWeave owes about $35 billion in debt and paid $640 million in interest just last quarter. Investors are now starting to sell off this debt. Its 2032 bonds have fallen more than 23% since June.
Bond trading prices are so depressed that they are considered distressed.
Due to the price drop, anyone buying these bonds now can earn over 15% annually. Therefore, 15% is now the cost CoreWeave must pay to borrow money.
This is a big problem because it plans to spend $35 billion to $39 billion this year but only has $5.5 billion in cash. It must keep borrowing to maintain construction.
Credit default swaps, which investors use to hedge default risk, now price CoreWeave’s probability of default within 5 years at 58%.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The US September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; month-on-month it increased by 0.6%. Core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Rising energy prices are the main driver, but core inflation remains sticky, indicating that inflationary pressure cannot be simply attributed to oil price fluctuations.
This data puts the Federal Reserve in a more difficult balancing act: employment growth has clearly cooled, yet inflation is rising again. Market concerns about further rate hikes are intensifying, the direction of pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields has also changed, and the valuation space for risk assets is being tested.
Tonight, the US September PPI will also be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Whether producer prices cool down simultaneously will help the market judge if cost pressures continue to transmit to the consumer side.
For BTC, the current worst-case scenario is rising inflation, increasing rate expectations, and cooling employment simultaneously. If PPI continues to exceed expectations, the market may further lower easing expectations; if producer-side pressure eases, there is a chance to mitigate the impact brought by CPI. The key tonight is not just the data level, but whether inflation is spreading. $BTC Core DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence $BTC
期权桌已经把保护垫铺到了 80000 下方。
Deribit 期权数据显示，针对 10 月 16 日到期的合约，看跌期权持仓集中在 76000 至 80000 行权价区间，资金在用期权提前对冲下行风险。当前 BTC OKX 现货 80898.8，DOGE OKX 现货 0.07967。
事实是衍生品市场对明天交割前的尾部风险防范明显加重。我判断在 10 月 16 日期权交割前，若今晚美国零售销售数据偏强，BTC 很可能向下刺穿 80000 去测试 78000 至 79500 的看跌期权密集区，高弹性的 DOGE 也会同步下探 0.075。若交割前 BTC 始终守稳 80000 并反抽站上 82200，则下探期权密集区的判断不成立。
$BTC
$DOGE
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
台积电 Q3：营收已经不是悬念，真正要看的是三件事
Q3 营收约 1.49 万亿新台币，同比增长约 50%，这个数字月报里已经陆续公布过，大概率已经反映在股价上了。今天财报说明会，我盯三个地方：
1️⃣ Q4 营收指引：营收靠 AI 订单冲高之后，市场要的是“还能不能继续”。指引如果只是符合预期，很可能出现利好兑现、股价回落；指引明显上调，才有新的上涨动力。
2️⃣ 资本开支有没有上调：资本开支上调，说明台积电对 AI 需求的判断比市场更乐观，这对整个 AI 链（英伟达、设备股）都是正信号。
3️⃣ 毛利率：营收增速高，不代表赚得一样多。海外建厂成本、汇率都会压毛利率，看它能不能守住高位。市场预计 Q3 净利润约 7463 亿新台币，实际数字和这个预期差多少，决定今晚的情绪方向。
我的思路：财报前股价已经回调了 2% 多，说明市场有分歧。我不在财报前重仓赌方向，先用小仓位，等 Q4 指引出来再加仓或止损。
你们觉得 Q4 指引能超预期吗？评论区聊聊 👇
仅为个人观点，不构成投资建议。#TSMCOct15Earnings Mỹ mở rộng sản xuất, Texas có phải là điểm đến tiếp theo? Arizona đã đầu tư 265 tỷ USD. Tuần trước Elon Musk cho biết công ty của ông sẽ xây dựng khu công nghiệp chip AI Terafab, TSMC có thể thuê một phần nhà máy
Biên lợi nhuận gộp có giữ được không? Dự báo biên lợi nhuận gộp quý 3 là 65%-67%, nhưng chi phí nhà máy ở nước ngoài cao hơn Đài Loan hơn 30%, áp lực khấu hao bắt đầu thể hiện từ nửa cuối năm, Citi và JPMorgan dự báo pha loãng 2-3 điểm phần trămCPI Data Review: $BTC /$ETH Short-term Trend Analysis
The comprehensive weakening of the US CPI data in September was the core trigger for this round of crypto market correction. The overall CPI month-on-month rose by +0.6%, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year figure at 3.7% exceeded the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both surpassing market expectations. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
After the data release, market expectations for rate hikes surged sharply, with the probability of a rate hike in October doubling to 44%-49%, and the probability before year-end exceeding 95%. US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, US stocks plunged, and the crypto market was passively pressured.
$BTC daily chart shows slight resistance to decline, falling from 83,430 to 81,784, losing the 20-day moving average and breaking below several medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating weakening technical patterns. The key support is at 81,603; holding this level maintains a wide oscillation between 80,300-84,000;
A breakdown would target 80,365 and 78,003. The funding side has slight support, with a net inflow of 175.7 million in spot ETFs on 10/13, recovering from the previous day's outflow, but the earlier large gap has not yet been filled. Intraday range is 80,800-83,000.
$ETH continues its weakness, with significantly higher leverage risk; perpetual open interest market value accounts for 15.3%, three times that of BTC, and long positions have not been fully cleared. The short-term critical level is 2,400; breaking below targets 2,330 and 2,250, while holding above 2,500 is necessary for recovery conditions.$BTC fell 2.09% last night, Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.02%, Dow Jones only fell 0.09%, a difference of twenty-two times. This gap is the market's answer after the September CPI release.
The September CPI was announced last night at 8:30 PM (Beijing time). It’s not about waiting anymore; it’s already priced in. Overall year-on-year is 3.7%, core year-on-year is 2.6%, both surpassing expectations and previous values, exceeding forecasts. The main drivers were energy month-on-month up 5.2% and gasoline month-on-month up 9.1%. This single oil price component contributed more than half of the increase.
Once the data came out, the market immediately repriced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%. The dollar strengthened, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and U.S. stock futures turned negative. Money didn’t withdraw from the overall stock market but pulled out from the most rate-sensitive segment.
This is where crypto stands. $BTC’s drop last night was almost the same number as the Nasdaq’s. It is priced as a long-duration, high-valuation asset, so gold rose while $BTC fell. The notion of digital gold doesn’t hold up during this period.
Gold has a subtle point: at the moment CPI was released, it was hammered below 4100, but this morning it rebounded to 4,139.23, up 0.83%. Its safe-haven attribute outweighed the inflation negative impact, but $BTC didn’t get this treatment. On the same night, $ETH fell 3.33%, $SOL fell 2.74%, still high-beta assets.
Brothers, first see which type of asset your money is treated as, then watch the rise and fall 🍌#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue surged to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-over-year increase. Looking at this data alone, it's indeed impressive; the chip demand driven by AI has all landed on this one company. But why is the market waiting for the earnings report and hesitant to draw conclusions early? Because strong revenue only means goods were sold, it doesn't guarantee stable profits. TSMC currently holds orders from Apple and Nvidia, but the costs of global expansion are visibly rising. Labor and infrastructure costs for the U.S. factory, depreciation in Japan and Europe, plus the steadily increasing electricity bills over recent years, are all squeezing profit margins. Moreover, looking at the details, September's monthly revenue already showed signs of slowing down sequentially. After maxing out capacity, no one is confident about how long the growth rate can be maintained. Broadening the perspective, TSMC is more like a barometer for the entire AI industry chain. If its gross margin and next quarter guidance fluctuate, a large number of tech companies telling AI stories afterward will face direct valuation pressure. What everyone is focusing on now is no longer how much was sold in the past three months, but how much net profit remains after deducting costs.ASML's €11.662B Q3 revenue and 57.5% gross margin show that leading-edge equipment demand is already translating into strong operating leverage. Interest in 2029-2030 purchases suggests customers are planning beyond the current AI cycle, though those discussions are not firm orders.
Exploring more 2028 capacity could support earnings durability, but execution and order conversion remain the test.
#ASMLQ3RevenueRecord The Fear and Greed Index rose from 57 back to 62, first dropping 12 points and then rising 5 points within a week. However, at the same time, U.S. spot ETFs are still experiencing net outflows. Is the warming sentiment a sign of a rebound, or just another premature rush? Let's start with the news. Three sets of numbers together: On the sentiment side, the Fear and Greed Index increased from 57 to 62 (previous value 57); on the capital side, U.S. spot ETFs have had net outflows of about $768.9 million over the last 5 trading days, with a cumulative outflow of $621.2 million over 10 days, though the latest single-day outflow has narrowed to $68.6 million; on the price side, BTC is at $83,353.6, down 0.09% in 24 hours and down 0.13% over the past week, basically flat. Now looking at the impact of capital. The sentiment index is composed of momentum, volatility, social media heat, and search trends, reflecting "attention and short-term momentum"; while ETF net inflows reflect "whether money has actually returned." When sentiment warms first but capital has not yet turned positive, the most common structure is a premature rebound: short-term funds move first, while allocation funds remain cautious. This structure is characterized by a quick rebound but is easily sold back at key levels—because the volume of funds driving the rise is insufficient. Implications for BTC: this is not a reliable bottom signal, but it should not be ignored either. The sentiment rising from 57 to 62 indicates that extreme pessimism has not formed and the market still has willingness to support; and the narrowing of single-day outflows suggests that the heaviest selling pressure may be over. Together, these point to a conclusion: it is more likely a repair within a range-bound market rather than a new trend up—unless the capital flow channel turns to continuous net inflows. I continueBig Brother Maji's position exposure! A tug of war between longs and shorts, with profits and losses polarizing
Latest position screenshot leaked, total position size 60,123,500, a set of long-short hedging combinations, one side floating profit while the other under pressure, bold trading ideas sparking extensive discussion.
✅ Complete breakdown of three positions
① BTC｜40X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -243.96 BTC, valued at 19,728,700
Opening price 84070.0, unrealized P&L +781,400, funding fee +65,500
Margin 493,200, liquidation price 105590.43
② ETH｜25X full position
Direction: Long
Quantity: 8222.28 ETH, valued at 19,374,200
Opening price 2507.67, unrealized P&L -1,244,700, funding fee -18,500
Margin 775,000, liquidation price 1598.4
③ HYPE｜5X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -268,300 HYPE, valued at 21,020,700
Opening price 66.2399, unrealized P&L -3,248,600, funding fee +1,043,600
Margin 4,204,100, liquidation price 99.04If ETH is only about thirty dollars away from liquidation, then what we really should be watching in this wave is not whether Maji will be liquidated, but rather who the money prefers to stay with. Will you follow the high leverage to buy the dip, or first see which side the funds favor? When I first saw this position, I was stunned: 25x leverage, 13,650 ETH, average price 2545.84, liquidation price 2481.40, current price about 2513, only 32 dollars in between. It's like dancing on a tightrope, but I don't think this can be directly taken as a panic signal, nor does it mean the other party has no other hedging arrangements. What I care more about is another thing: how the fund preference is choosing. Data snapshot: - ETH: 25x long, 13,650 ETH, average opening price about 2545.84, liquidation price about 2481.40, current price about 2513 - BTC: 80,000 is the key defense line; if it holds and returns to the 82,000 to 83,000 range, the repair space will open - Sentiment: liquidation rumors are eye-catching, but we can't see the other party's complete fund arrangements, nor whether there are hedging accounts First, look at momentum signals. If BTC holds 80,000 and climbs back to 82,000 to 83,000, this ETH position will have a breathing window, and risk appetite for mainstream assets will warm up first. ETH, as a high-beta asset, usually rebounds faster than BTC. At this time, funds prefer the more certain mainstream assets; altcoins may not immediately follow. Then look at risk signals. If 80,000 is effectively broken, buying pressure will be significantly#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance yet to be revealed.
There is an item in the Q2 report that is easy to overlook: the disposal and fair value measurement of Vanguard International Semiconductor shares brought about approximately NT$63.2 billion in gains. This is investment-related income, different in origin from the continuous wafer production earnings. It can reasonably be included in the quarterly report but should not be assumed to occur every quarter.
With the earnings report releasing this afternoon, I want to separate operating profit from non-operating items first. If the core business continues to improve while investment income declines, net profit growth may not look as impressive; conversely, if net profit looks particularly good, it’s necessary to verify whether there are new non-core contributions. Without clarifying this, using the quarter-on-quarter EPS change to evaluate the strength of AI orders can easily lead to misinterpretation of the cause.
The market has high expectations for TSMC, so it’s even more important to clearly explain where each profit comes from. The chip manufacturing capability can justify long-term valuation, but a one-time gain from stock disposal should be understood according to its true nature.
There is no problem with this gain. The issue arises when readers treat it as recurring quarterly income.
I don’t want to see everyone just shouting “beat expectations” or “missed expectations” again as soon as the earnings report comes out. Revenue has already hit a new high; the more useful question going forward is: excluding those items that may not repeat, how well is the core business really doing? If there was extra income last quarter, the comparison base needs adjustment—don’t let one investment gain distort the entire industry’s picture One sentence for the crypto circle: Don't heavily bet on AI-themed coins ahead of earnings reports. TSMC is a sentiment booster, not the main BTC storyline; the market still focuses on US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. On Thursday morning, will you be waiting for the speech or waking up to see the results?
$BTC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, profitability performance to be revealed Up 54% in four weeks, leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum behind in the same period—what's driving Sui's surge? Three solid developments: Bitwise has brought its institution-focused RWA vault to Sui, targeting net returns over 10%; Samsung announced Galaxy devices now support USDC and integrate Sui capabilities; on-chain DeFi locked value grew 15.5% in four weeks, peaking at about $1.21 billion. But some cold water: locked value dropped 5.2% in the past week, on-chain activity is cooling; plus, circulating supply is only 41% of total, with nearly 60% still locked and pending release. Current price is near $1, about 78% below the all-time high of $5.35. Support first looks at the $1 whole number level; if it can't hold above $1.15, the rebound can't be considered strong. Do you think this round for Sui is real institutional money or just another wave of sentiment? Share your judgment in the comments. This is just data analysis and does not constitute investment advice.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC Bitcoin has tested 81,000 three times! The unstable chips are slowly being washed out!
This downward pressure mainly comes from disappointing inflation data; everyone is worried that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy, causing the US stock market to weaken, which in turn is suppressing our market.
Some analysts looking at on-chain data say that with each drop, the amount of forced selling is decreasing.
During the first drop, many who couldn't hold on fled immediately; during the second test of this level, fewer were willing to sell; although some couldn't hold and stopped losses during the third time, overall selling pressure was still not as fierce as the first time.
This means those who are unstable and panic at slight drops are gradually leaving the market, and not everyone is panic selling.
But to be clear, not everyone has sold out yet; about 30% of short-term holders are still at a loss, so we are still far from a complete washout historically.
So don't rush to assume this is the bottom.
Even if selling pressure is decreasing, once macro news comes out, the market can still continue to fluctuate and shake.
Those trading with leverage should not recklessly bet heavily at this level that it will definitely hold; risk control is still necessary. $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability to be revealed #BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover? $MSTR should have started to drop on September 17, but it has been pumped for a month…CPI unexpectedly surged, and AI infrastructure stocks were crushed: South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5.6% in a single day, Nikkei fell 1.3%, S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, Nasdaq plummeted 1.9%, and the semiconductor index declined for the sixth consecutive day; CoreWeave, Nebius, Oracle—those building data centers by borrowing money—lost about $80 billion in market value in one day. The probability of a Fed rate hike on October 28 jumped overnight from 22.1% to 31.6%.
Harsh commentary: The era of borrowing to build data centers collided with rate hikes, and the computing power bubble is first leaking air from the debt market—no matter how good the story is, you have to kneel before interest. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ September CPI exceeded expectations, and the market is stuck around the 83k level, but a group of assets have developed independent trends against the headwind: L2 and modular chains.
The capital logic is not hard to understand—money withdrawn from meme coins and old DeFi is looking for things with real upgrades. Starknet just completed the v0.14.4 mainnet upgrade, with STRK rising over 110% this week; Optimism, through a new proposal, is using half of Superchain's revenue for buybacks, with OP rising nearly 20% in a single day; the data availability sector Celestia rose 24% in seven days.
A splash of cold water: about 127 million STRK tokens (over 3% of circulating supply) unlocked today, so the bigger the rise, the stronger the selling pressure; this round's sector breadth is also very narrow, with only 6 out of 26 categories rising, and rotation can stop abruptly. If you want to participate, use small positions, stagger your entries, and don't chase single-day big gains.
Did you engage with L2 this week? Share your thoughts in the comments. The above does not constitute investment advice. CPI to be announced tonight: BTC's surge is just the beginning, the real question is whether ETH and SOL can follow up
$BTC 83,356, $ETH 2,505, $SOL 107.41.
Tonight's CPI release still shows market divergence on the inflation path. More important than the data itself is whether new funds are willing to take over after the data is published. As of October 12, the US spot BTC and ETH ETFs have net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively, indicating that sentiment recovery still needs verification.
No direction guesses tonight, just observations:
① Whether core CPI loosens expectations for rate cuts;
② After BTC reacts first, whether ETH and SOL increase volume simultaneously;
③ Whether the surge can hold steady instead of falling back sharply.
If only BTC rises alone while $ETH and SOL remain weak, I would see it as a risk-averse rally rather than a full return of risk appetite. A truly healthy rebound requires BTC to lead, ETH and SOL to follow, and the pullback not to break key levels. Data determines the first jump, funds determine the endurance.
If CPI cools down, would you rather bet on BTC strengthening independently or ETH and SOL catching up? #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
The recent non-farm employment data was below expectations, which seemed to act as a "stimulant" for the market, causing it to rise
However, the CPI data did not fall short of or meet expectations; instead, it exceeded expectations and dealt a blow to the market. $ETH and $BTC both fell, with ETH breaking below the previous September low of 2300, 80000
The rate hike expectations rose from 23% to over 30% and then slightly retreated, but the market still priced in rate hike expectations. After yesterday's sharp drop, the South Korean KOSPI index continued to fall and triggered a circuit breaker 🤔
However, Federal Reserve officials stated that more data is needed and they are not in a hurry to raise rates in October, indirectly calming the market. Personally, I suspect there may be pressure from the White House as the midterm elections approach, but if the data worsens, the possibility of a Fed rate hike in October cannot be completely ruled out
Regarding the previous plan to buy ETH at 2280, it has been canceled, but if subsequent data stabilizes, the 2280-2300 range remains attractive. Otherwise, I personally believe a drop back to 2000 or even lower may just be a matter of time. Be aware of the risks! The battle to defend 80,000 is on again—Is this BTC dip a fakeout or a real retreat?
CPI poured cold water on the market; Bitcoin surged to 84,147 last night but couldn't hold, then was pushed down to 80,228. Now, on OKEx, it's hovering around 80,800, down about 1% in 24 hours. The 80,000 psychological level is back in the spotlight.
The market isn't entirely one-sided: BTC itself is down, but ETH and SOL have fallen even harder (about 2.6% and 2%, respectively). BTC's market dominance has actually risen to 59.4%, and ETFs saw a slight net inflow of $2.2 million yesterday. Funds don't seem to be fleeing crypto but rather consolidating within the sector toward the leaders, clutching the top dog amid panic.
My take: The sudden jump to a 47% chance of a rate hike in October is the main trigger here. Technically, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, RSI is around 38—not oversold yet—and moving averages are all bearish. Sentiment is weak but not a crash volume; it looks more like a high-beta asset paying back rate expectations.
Watch two signals: whether 80,000 and the 24h low of 80,228 hold. For a rebound, first resistance is at 81,000. If tech stocks continue to fall when US markets open tonight, BTC will struggle to stand alone. DYOR, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #美CFTC启动首轮加密市场规则制定 ⚠️多家比特币矿企股价集体重挫，跌幅超12%，通胀数据偏热砸向AI基建股，$BTC也跟着走弱，行情卡在$80,478-$81,033区间里。RSI33偏空，反弹力度不强，上面$82,883-$84,461那片阻力也不轻松，多头想翻盘没那么容易。更关键的是24小时持仓量涨了2.8%，价格却跌了3.44%，说明空头在加仓，不是多头获利离场。短期情绪偏弱，风险偏向下行。我仓位上偏保守，就看$80,478能不能站稳，如果做空，突破$81,033止损离场，止盈看$79,684。这波矿企暴跌会不会继续拖累$BTC情绪？#HOODQ3TradingGrowth To my future great trader self:
From the market environment perspective, the US September CPI announced on October 14 rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.5%.
The issue with BTC is that macro news can change market pricing in a short time. Even if the medium to long term outlook remains optimistic for Bitcoin, it does not mean that short-term long positions can withstand all pullbacks.
Key points from the review:
The long-term logic of BTC and short-term trading results are two different things. Getting the direction right does not mean the entry timing is necessarily correct; being optimistic long-term is not a reason to ignore stop-losses.
After CPI exceeded expectations, the market's repricing of interest rate paths not only affects BTC but may also transmit to other crypto assets through overall risk appetite.
When the market environment changes, have you timely reassessed your position risks?
Do not underestimate the volatility risk of a coin just because you are familiar with it; do not simply interpret short-term declines as inevitable rebounds. When opening a position, you should clearly define the maximum loss you can bear, rather than only considering exit after losses have expanded on paper.
The most cautionary aspect of the ETH trade is that the risk was not effectively controlled before the outcome appeared.
You can be wrong in trading, but risk cannot be entirely left to the market to decide.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
#Tesla profit recovery becomes a focus after delivery exceeds expectations #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC's Q3 revenue surged 50% year-over-year to a record high, but the market did not rally. The core focus is not on the realized revenue but on profitability and future guidance.
The company provided a Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67%, down from 67.7% in Q2 quarter-over-quarter. The main pressure comes from increased capital expenditures due to capacity expansion. Revenue growth is driven by AI foundry orders, but expansion costs will erode profits.
The current 2% stock price decline reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, as the revenue upside has already been priced in. The real highlights of the earnings report are: first, whether the actual gross margin is near the upper or lower end of the range; second, the Q4 revenue guidance to verify if AI demand can continue; third, whether capital expenditures will be further increased.
If the gross margin approaches 67%, Q4 guidance is strong, and spending is controllable, the stock price is likely to recover; conversely, if it is near the 65% lower limit, guidance is weak, and spending surges, pressure will continue. The earnings report can also indirectly confirm the health of the AI industry chain. ARB (Arbitrum) 3-Year Price Scenario Forecast (Overseas Institutions Multi-Scenario Model, USD) Baseline assumptions: Ethereum ecosystem recovery, controllable token unlocking pressure, Layer2 business growth; divided into three tiers: [Pessimistic / Baseline / Optimistic] 1. End of 2027 - Pessimistic: $0.15–0.30 (large unlocking pressure, crypto market bear) - Baseline: $0.40–0.80 (steady growth in L2 transaction volume) - Optimistic: $1.20–1.80 (RWA assets on-chain, institutional capital inflow) 2. End of 2028 - Pessimistic: $0.25–0.50 - Baseline: $0.70–1.40 - Optimistic: $2.50–3.80 (fee switch implementation, protocol captures fees) 3. End of 2029 - Pessimistic: $0.30–0.65 - Baseline: $1.00–2.00 - Optimistic: $4.00–6.50 (decentralized sequencer launch, large-scale ecosystem expansion) Supplement: Standard Chartered Bank's extremely optimistic long-term forecast: ARB could reach $6.5 by 2029, but this is a very aggressive assumption, and the vast majority of institutions do not agree with this high target; for reference only. OP (Optimism) 3-Year Price Scenario Forecast (USD) OP is also an Ethereum L2, with an ecosystem slightly smaller than ARB, token unlocking cycle pressure also exists, overall elasticity weaker than ARB: $SNDK SNDK has already dropped to $1353, and this decline probably isn't over yet!!!
It fell all the way from around 1484 to the current 1353, which is quite a significant drop, so at this level, I actually don't want to keep shorting. But there's a question: NAND prices are still rising, enterprise-level SSD demand is strong, and SNDK's previous performance and guidance were not bad, so why can't the stock price even hold 1400?
I think the biggest problem now is not that the industry isn't growing, but that the market has already priced in this growth in advance. The positive factors remain, but the price keeps going down, indicating that capital is no longer willing to pay for the previously high valuations. Every rebound now may encounter profit-taking selling pressure again.
Next, I am most focused on TSMC's earnings report and the US PPI. If on Thursday the news triggers a semiconductor rebound and SNDK returns to around 1395–1415, I wouldn't be surprised at all. But if the news is good and capital still can't catch it, this kind of rebound will probably become a selling point again.
Personally, I remain bearish until Friday, leaning more towards 1280–1340, and if weaker, it might even test 1220–1270. However, 1353 is already close to the target range, so I won't blindly short just to be bearish.
Only if PPI clearly eases, TSMC leads semiconductors to regain sustained buying, and SanDisk firmly holds above 1484 instead of rallying and falling back again, will I change my current view. #SonyEarningsPreview: How are the gaming and music businesses performing?