Orbit Post Sitemap
Amazon's Q3 earnings report after the market close on October 29, the core question: can AWS's accelerated growth continue? There's a detail in the community worth noting — about 40% of AWS's new sales come from startups, which means locking in computing power demand in advance, clearly showing the intention to step on the gas and grab market share. High capex short-term suppresses free cash flow, but in return builds a moat for market share. After the earnings report, I only focus on two points: whether AWS's growth rate can be maintained and whether the capex guidance is disciplined.
#AmazonAWSGrowthAcceleration, CanQ3Continue? Don't use Friday's ETF report to explain weekend coin prices
On October 16, Farside data showed a net outflow of $82.4 million from the US BTC spot ETF on that day. But by the weekend, this statistic no longer represented real-time capital flows: the ETF secondary market was closed for regular trading, while crypto spot trading continued with continuous quotes. The two schedules are not synchronized, so Friday's data naturally cannot answer the new buy and sell activity that appeared on Saturday.
Therefore, when seeing a large address making a move, it is not appropriate to directly conclude that "institutional funds are all absorbing." The market has buyers as well as sellers willing to transact at the same price. What should be focused on is whether the price can hold after the purchase and whether subsequent transactions continue.
The most common misjudgment on weekends is mistaking a small rebound for a reversal in capital sentiment. Habitually watching ETF inflows and outflows on weekdays can easily lead to treating it as an all-day directional indicator, but capital statistics have fixed update rhythms, and on-chain and spot transactions do not wait for reports.
Weekend prices can certainly provide clues, but do not speak on behalf of next week's buyers in advance. Whether the price can recover after a pullback, and whether ETF subscriptions and redemptions will cooperate with this recovery after the US stock market reopens, still need to be observed.
Whether $80,000 can hold is not yet supported by sufficient evidence. Weekend market conditions only represent the weekend itself.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing will be revealed
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises TSLA's earnings report this time, with delivery volume exceeding expectations, is just the appetizer; the real main event is yet to come!
The Q3 delivery data performed well, and the probability of revenue exceeding expectations has increased, but don't rush to be blindly optimistic. Growth in delivery volume does not mean profits will grow simultaneously; the pressure on gross margin from price cuts and promotions, the performance of the energy storage business, and free cash flow are the key factors that determine the quality of this earnings report.
I am more inclined to believe that revenue has a chance to exceed expectations, but whether earnings per share can surprise the market remains uncertain. After all, the market trades not only on the results of the past quarter but also on Tesla's future growth potential.
Additionally, the commercialization progress of Robotaxi, the rollout speed of FSD, and Musk's guidance on the next phase of business could all be highlights in the earnings call. If both performance and future guidance exceed expectations, TSLA has the opportunity to strengthen further; but if profit margins fall short of expectations, even with strong revenue performance, positive sentiment may be realized.
The biggest opportunities before earnings often come with the greatest divergences. Don't just focus on delivery volume; profit and expectation gaps are the real keys to determining stock price direction! $TSLA #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 According to the benchmark model for $BTC btc, the average deposit rate rose by 1 basis point (0.01 percentage points) in a single week, corresponding to a subsequent ten-week cumulative growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization decreasing by about 3 percentage points from an average level of approximately 15% to around 12%, rather than the market cap turning negative. USDC's response is stronger than USDT. $ETH $SOL #Institutional funds continue to flow out, can BTC stabilize? If you are optimistic about Bitcoin—would you buy the coin directly, or buy a company that buys coins for you?
There is now a type of company in the market whose entire business is buying $BTC.
Metaplanet holds 44,000 coins, worth 3.6 billion USD. But if you sell the whole company, it’s only worth 2.6 billion. Buy it, then sell the coins—you make 1 billion.
MicroStrategy holds 848,250 coins, worth 69.1 billion. But the company’s market cap is only 56.9 billion USD. In other words: buy it, then sell the coins—you lose 12.2 billion USD.
So are those who buy MicroStrategy just fools?
The key point is this: the market is willing to give it a premium not because it "has a lot of coins," but because it "will buy more coins."
When there’s a premium, you’re buying growth.
When there’s a discount, you’re buying a bunch of coins.
And a bunch of coins, you can always buy yourself. Of course, behind all this lies an implicit assumption: BTC will rise! $BTC 比特币 这周的剧本相当拧巴：美国9月CPI同比3.7%刷新五个月新高，PPI跟着凑热闹，降息梦碎了一地，10月27日至28日的议息会议还被硬塞进日程当悬念；可美股周五偏偏上演惊天大逆转，道指尾盘涨1.08%站上52,177.69点，标普收在7,744.06，科技股盘中跳水1.4%硬是原路爬了回来。美股淡定，币圈绷不住，上周美国现货比特币ETF净流出6.81亿美元，三周连进账的日子到头了。$BTC周跌1.87%收在81,465，正好趴在ETF大本营持仓成本8.15万附近，卡在门缝里进退两难。30天区间76,217.70到87,374.30，上沿88,000一带堆着两年的老筹码，下方8万关口有订单簿托底，偏偏交易所储备又降到七个月低点，一年70万枚被提走冷存，抛压和囤币在这玩拔河。资金费率日均0.004%上下，多头还没缴械。图表上反弹第一目标84,420，冲得动再看86,501，怕就怕议息前先熄火，退一步的备选在74,693。 $ETH 以太坊 $ETH这周跌3.47%收2,423.74，走势像台没充满电的手机。9月21日冲高2,806.96之后一路阴跌，波段高点从2,748.5CPI与PPI双双超预期，$BTC 一度被砸到79,800附近——但真正值得盯住的不是这个数字，而是它没能在80,000下方待多久。价格短暂刺穿后迅速被买盘托回81,000上方，几个小时内完成修复。这种"被砸下去又被立刻接住"的动作，比任何单一指标都更能说明问题。 我把80,000一线视为当前的关键防线，理由有三层。 第一层来自宏观的边际松动。Warsh并未释放明确的加息信号，10月加息概率已回落至15%。收益率虽然仍在高位，但至少没有进一步的紧缩信号叠加。当宏观不再持续恶化，这个价格区间就更容易守住。 第二层是技术面的多重共振。上升趋势线大约在80,400，50日均线也在附近，现货ETF的平均成本约在81,500至82,300之间。一旦跌破这一带，不少机构会转入浮亏状态，而订单簿上此前也出现过明显的买单承接。这几个位置挤在一起，构成了密集支撑。 第三层是资金结构的分化。10月ETF整体偏向流出，机构买盘并不强。但有报告显示，本周巨鲸行为偏向吸筹，现货订单簿在80,000附近存在支撑。机构谨慎之际价格仍能站稳，说明另一股买盘正在悄悄接手——这恰恰是容易被忽视的信号。 操作层面，我更倾向Many people say that the Nasdaq 100 ETF is currently at a historical peak, the position is too high, so I won't buy. I think this idea is very wrong, listen to my thoughts: In the 2008 financial crisis, the Nasdaq 100 had its largest intra-year drawdown of 49.6%. In the 2020 pandemic, the largest intra-year drawdown was 33%. In the 2022 interest rate hike bear market, the largest intra-year drawdown was 35.16%. That is to say, the average of the last three major drawdowns is about 39.25%. Assuming the Nasdaq 100 index is at 31361.37, which is the new high of this bull market, in the worst case, my first fixed investment of 100 yuan just happened to be at this position, expecting a drawdown of 39.25% over the past year. Do you think this drawdown is possible? Normally, there are 252 trading days in a year, investing 100 yuan daily means a total investment of 25200 yuan. Using the uniform decline law for fixed investment, with a 39.25% drop at the end of the year, the calculated year-end portfolio value is 19046.30 yuan. Now look at another set of data: Big drop in 2008 → 2009: +54.61%. Big drop in 2020 → 2021: +26.63%. Sharp drop in March 2020, intra-year rebound recovery, continued big rise in 2021. Big drop in 2022 → 2023: +55.13%. That is to say, the average surge the following year is 45.46%. The uniform rise model in the second year continues fixed investment: Original base position: fully captures the 45.46% increase. The funds invested in batches in the second year only capture about half of the increase on average:Prices have all fallen below the bottom line, yet the bulls are still crazily adding positions! I took a quick look at the market before bed, and the data for WLD and HYPE is simply amazing; retail investors are clearly showing they are foolish and have too much money!
The most typical case is $WLD, currently priced at 0.4992. After breaking the threshold, retail investors not only didn't run, but the long-short ratio even reached 2.24! Everyone thinks 0.5 is a solid bottom and is desperately rushing in. But looking at the funding rate, it occasionally turns negative, meaning bulls are losing even on interest. This kind of situation, held up by faith alone, will most likely break 0.5.
Looking at $HYPE, currently at 79.1, it failed to hold the 80 mark, with a long-short ratio of 2.07. The key point is that open interest dropped from 109 million to 104 million. This signal is very familiar: the main funds are retreating, while retail bulls are stubbornly holding their ground. The upper side is full of trapped positions, the rebound has no volume, and the slow decline is the most torturous.
Finally, $ZEC, currently at 1159, is quite balanced with a long-short ratio of 0.99. But the daily chart shows a drop from 1695, and the overall trend is still downward. Funds have not entered the market, so the current rebound is most likely a bull trap.
My view is simple: this kind of slow decline at the weekend close is the worst time to bottom-fish on the left side. The bulls in WLD and HYPE haven't been cleaned out, so the market simply can't rise.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 分析完孙宇晨最新的资产配置表，可以用一个词形容他：自相矛盾。
他最怕的东西，和他最重仓的东西，是同一个。
底仓是BTC，过去一年没减仓。他一边担忧量子计算和AI算法的冲击，一边用冷钱包“掩体模式”隔离风险，然后坚持持有。
进攻仓是ETH。去年在3600到4000美元区间减持80%到90%，资金大部分转投美股，目前只留两成底仓，尚未买回。
真正的主仓是英伟达，重仓且不减，定位为AI领域的底仓。
信号很清晰：他把ETH从“进攻资产”降级了。过去两年大量买入并质押ETH，持仓一度逼近70万枚；如今砍掉大半进攻属性，把AI算力龙头抬成新的主攻方向。
最耐人寻味的是他对BTC的态度：承认风险，却没有卖；用冷钱包隔离，但底仓不动。判断是——知道有雷，但不踩刹车。
对美股纳指100，则是中线微看空，重仓持有，不做空。
他看空，但不押注做空；他怕风险，但不离场。
这才是最真实的大佬姿态：不是非黑即白，不是满仓或清仓，而是在风险和机会之间，做一个有保留的平衡。
你手里的仓位，平衡吗？#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ETH $ZEC 🚨 Brothers, Stop Using Friday's ETF Flows to Predict the Weekend BTC Market! According to Farside Investors' records, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $82.4 million on October 16. But here's the key point: once the weekend begins, regular US ETF trading pauses while crypto spot markets continue operating 24/7. These markets follow different schedules, so Friday's ETF data cannot explain every buying or selling move over the weekend. 🔍 1️⃣ Don't Assume Every Large Buyer Is an Inst$SAND 这单50x多，浮盈590%，吃到了低位反弹的暴力段，但现在的盘面反而让我更谨慎了。
回看4小时，从0.06759阴跌到0.05273，底部横盘后突然连拉大阳。我在0.05793进场，当时看的是短线均线拐头、价格重新站回关键位置，下跌动能衰竭，资金有回流迹象。日内拉了19.96%，标记价0.06477，确实走出了预期。
但这位置隐患不小。0.06759前高就在头顶，套牢盘+获利盘双重压力。资金费率负的离谱（-0.44%），说明多头情绪极速升温但盘面有分歧，这种极端费率下，要么继续逼空，要么一根针扫完多头。
老山寨的逻辑还是资金行为。前面跌那么久，市场不愿给估值，现在突然拉，更多是超跌反弹+板块轮动试探。上方0.066-0.067如果站不稳，很容易变成诱多。
50x我肯定不会贪尾鱼，前高附近会考虑减仓。反弹看承接，不是看涨幅，这波吃到了就知足。$ETH RSI 30.27 has already entered oversold territory, with the 200-day moving average still 13.38% below.
▪️ Current price 2,434.86, daily +0.40%, weekly −2.99%
▪️ RSI 30.27, fifth lowest in the last 12
▪️ 20-day moving average 2,577.52, current price 5.53% lower
▪️ 50-day moving average 2,553.49, current price 4.65% lower
▪️ 200-day moving average 2,147.54, current price 13.38% higher
▪️ Monthly −0.43%, quarterly +30.18%
The divergence is not about whether it is oversold, but that the short-term, long-term, and the 13.38% buffer are oversold.
RSI is calculated using the price changes over the last 14 days, focusing only on the short term; the 200-day moving average measures the average cost over the past year. Both lines being true means: short-term momentum has dropped near 30, while long-term holdings still have a floating profit of 13%. The retracement is concentrated in the last 30 days.
The direction suggests waiting — only a recovery above 2,553 counts as short-term repair; breaking below 2,318 means the long-term buffer starts to be eaten.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #机构资金持续流出，BTC能否企稳？ Capital Flow: ETF Continues to Bleed, but Account Long Positions and Active Trading Severely Diverge
ETF—Single Day Net Outflow of $82.39 Million
On October 16, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $82.39 million, with BlackRock's IBIT outflowing $71.78 million, which was due to contract redemption rather than BlackRock actively reducing holdings. Over the past 7 trading days, BTC ETFs have had a net outflow of about $146 million, indicating a still cautious short-term capital attitude.
However, there is a more alarming divergence: the proportion of long positions across all market accounts is as high as 64.3% (Binance 63.1%, OKX 64.2%, Bybit 63.4%), yet the proportion of active trading long positions is only 47.9%. While accounts are bullish, the actual buying power actively participating in the market has not kept pace—this rebound seems more like passive covering rather than the start of a trend reversal. Without new buying interest, the rebound is likely to falter before resistance levels.
Funding rates are overall positive but low (Binance 0.003%, OKX 0.008%), with longs still paying holding costs, but the crowding is far from extreme. Open interest is about $43.4 billion, increasing only 0.1% in 24 hours, indicating no unified chasing or dumping action in the funding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Anthropic plans to raise $60 billion, IPO faces challenges Bro, the script in the AI circle has changed, now it's playing out as "borrowing money to survive"
Look at this chart, Anthropic is pushing a $60 billion chip financing plan to get Google's TPU computing power, gritting their teeth. Blackstone invested 9 billion, but look closely at the coupon rate, 10%! What does this mean? This is like borrowing high-interest loans to build infrastructure. Even the top AI unicorn now faces outrageously high costs to raise money.
Look at another set of data, even more painful. Q3 revenue was 16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase, finally adjusted to profitability, but what happened? The IPO valuation expectation was directly slashed from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion. The New York auditor even stepped in to block, demanding AI safety governance be addressed before listing.
In short, the market's rosy view of AI has shattered. Recently, the Nasdaq plunged, semiconductors were bloodied, and capital voted with its feet. Everyone is now focused on one thing: after burning huge amounts of money and computing power, when will you actually make a profit? Now, the primary market can't get cheap money, and the secondary market is unwilling to pay sky-high valuations—both ends are blocked.
This directly impacts our Bitcoin. The global hot money pool is limited, and AI giants borrowing debt at 10% to grab chips means what? It means liquidity is extremely tight, money is too expensive. This is also why US Treasury yields stubbornly hold at 5.5%, and Bitcoin is being pressed down around 80,000. All the money is going into the bottomless pit of AI computing power.An interesting thing
The rabbit is not uninvolved
High-end hunters are behind the scenes
The chick wants to trap us
Solana's Shanghai office is established, but there's an interesting detail
This week, Solana team members collectively posted photos announcing the establishment of the Shanghai office. Business registration information also surfaced:
🔹 Shanghai Solana Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. was registered in June this year, with a registered capital of 5 million, and the legal representative is Claire Du, co-head of Solana China
🔹 In August, holding 45% shares, Shanghai Yaokun Qiusuo was established with a registered capital of 10 million, and Even Jiang, co-head of China region, serves as chairman
⚠️ But note a contrast:
The team is very high-profile in photos, but the business side is very "low-key" — this company is solely owned by a natural person, and currently no direct equity relationship with Solana Foundation can be found.
📌 Two interpretations:
① Indirect entry into China: It is common for overseas projects to enter China through natural person entities; being low-key actually indicates seriousness
② Personal behavior: It is just a company registered by the China regional head personally, unrelated to the foundation, so don't overthink it
Which is correct will be clear from follow-up actions: if it is a real layout, there will be developer events, ecosystem funds, and local partnerships rolling out; if not, this news ends here.
On-chain Shanghai, do you think it’s a real landing or just thunder without rain? Last night on TapeOut's Space, it was mentioned that there will be an upcoming TAP protocol upgrade regarding DeWEB storage and gateway.
The proposal hasn't been made public yet, so first let's talk about how DeWEB currently operates, then present the current status and figures of storage and gateway, so that once the proposal is out, it can be directly compared.
🐋 DeWEB in one minute
- Each circuit NFT is bound to an ERC-6551 account called a "container"; one container equals one website
- Website files are written into the on-chain SiteRegistry contract, split into chunks of 24,000 bytes, each chunk deployed as a small contract, with each file registered with a SHA-256
- Website names don't use DNS; the format is "#ID.processor number.tape", for example 4246.0.tape; names on X Layer have an additional zone number 2
- When opening a website, the browser reads data from nodes of at least two operators within the same block; if the answers don't match, access is denied, then each file's length and hash are verified one by one
- Website scripts can only come from on-chain; external images and APIs can be used and will be recorded and displayed
🐋 What is TAP and where does it stand
TAP is TapeOut's protocol proposal, with a process similar to Ethereum's EIP-1: first open an issue for discussion, then submit a draft, which is reviewed by editors for formatting, assigned a number, and merged. The rules are written in TAP-01$QNT
Interoperability becomes more valuable when organizations need different systems to exchange information without rebuilding their entire infrastructure. Quant focuses on connecting distributed ledger technologies through its Overledger platform. Enterprise interest, however, is not the same as widespread production adoption. The important questions concern actual deployment, recurring demand, and how consistently the QNT token is needed within the ecosystem's business model.The period when $SOL was taking hits alone has most likely passed.
Comparing the closing prices from October 6 to 13, SOL dropped from 120.52 to 107.4, a decline of 10.9%, while BTC only fell 2.7% during the same period. The extra eight percentage points represent SOL's own selling pressure. The exchange rate of SOL to BTC fell from 0.001406 to 0.001287 during this week, and this round of relative weakness was almost entirely compressed into these seven days.
After the 13th, things changed. By the close on the 17th, SOL fell another 2.9%, BTC dropped 2.2%, both basically moving in sync, and the exchange rate hovered between 0.00127 and 0.00129 for five days. On the 15th, BTC dipped to 79775 intraday, SOL followed down to just above 100; both rebounded that day, with SOL closing above 106, not continuing to fall alone.
Following the market down and falling alone are two different situations for long positions. Falling alone means someone is specifically selling SOL, and even if the overall market stabilizes, it can't stop the decline. When following the market down, SOL's own selling pressure has basically been exhausted, and what's left is the market's fluctuations. SOL inherently has greater elasticity than BTC and often leads the way when the market recovers. Confirmation of strengthening is seen in the exchange rate returning to around 0.00132, which is the level on the 12th, with BTC flat and SOL first reclaiming above 108.
On the 21st, the new consensus activates on the mainnet, an event unique to SOL. If an independent rally is to come, this is the closest date to it.SAND's trading volume and price have both expanded this round, basically confirming the main force's identity ✅
Current price 0.06498 (+19.3%, 24h range 0.05355–0.06499, almost closing at the highest point), focusing on three signals:
① Volume is indeed in place
24h trading volume rose from 339,000 to 924,000, a 2.7x increase; the 4h volumes over the past two days were 150,000 → 160,000 → 49,000 → 75,000, showing a moderate volume increase pushing upward, without a single large bullish candle pulling it all the way up.
② Shorts are being squeezed
Contract funding rate −0.737%/8h (about −2.2%/day), shorts are paying a large amount of funding fees; OI rose from 11.5 million contracts to 13.81 million contracts, an increase of about 20%. When the funding rate is this negative, short covering creates upward momentum, which is the source of this short squeeze. The key to the short squeeze is how long shorts can hold, not just buying pressure. $SAND $BTC $ETH Big Brother Maji has once again forcefully closed positions to survive!
From 6 PM yesterday until now, he has continuously reduced nearly 3,000 ETH long positions, currently holding only 3,325 long positions.
The rollercoaster market contrast is especially striking: yesterday, the unrealized profit on the account peaked at $330,000, but upon waking up, the unrealized profit shrank directly to $23,000. Dropping from 330,000 to 23,000, the speed of profit evaporation is ridiculously fast.
His current position is precarious:
Opening price 2420, liquidation price 2380, 25x high leverage, just one step away from the liquidation line. No wonder he urgently reduced his position; if he didn’t actively shrink his holdings, it would be easy to be directly liquidated by the market.
Essentially, this is not an ordinary position reduction, but an emergency hedge to preserve principal. The stubbornness of holding onto longs has to compromise in front of the life-and-death line at 2380. Even a whale can’t withstand the heavy pressure of high leverage; once close to the liquidation edge, no matter how large the size, survival must be prioritized.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #This week's market has been tugging back and forth, with most trading operations feeling very exhausting😮💨
At 2 AM on the weekend, liquidity noticeably thinned, and a small amount of capital could trigger spikes, specifically piercing stop-loss levels on both sides. After inflation data rose, expectations for rate cuts cooled down, the market lacks new funds, and the capital inside is competing with each other. The market rise is just a recovery; the decline carries real pressure. Gold has central banks continuously buying to support it, so its volatility range is relatively stable; BTC also faces ETF capital outflows, with most rebounds being retail and quant funds covering positions, lacking main force entry, so the continuation is weak. The Q4 market is more inclined to repeated range cleansing.
It's hard to see a clear trend over the weekend, mostly stop-loss harvesting. You can pay attention to the sustainability of capital changes in the market and observe whether the rebound can hold above the upper range. If the lower range holds, continue to observe the box range; if it breaks below the lower range, then reassess the current consolidation structure. How would you distinguish signals between a rebound and a trend start?
$BTC $ETH $SOL The top short seller who made 128 million is also starting to cut losses.
From 9:30 to 10:00 last night, this address reduced its ETH short position by $10.35 million, closing the position with a loss of $207,000. After the reduction, it still holds $198 million in short positions.
$207,000 is nothing to them, but the action itself is very interesting.
After checking, this address is most likely Abraxas Capital. It is short not only ETH but also holds $186 million in BTC shorts, with the combined unrealized loss once nearing $50 million.
Even the top short sellers are choosing to reduce positions to stop losses at this point. Retail investors are still fantasizing about ETH going to zero, but they are quietly stepping back.
Do you think they reduced their position because the drop has bottomed out, or simply to lower leverage? Discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data compilation and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC Folks, Wall Street really staged an epic split this week. #Nasdaq100 down 5.5% this week, chip stocks down eight days in a row
The Nasdaq 100 plummeted 5.5%, while the Dow Jones actually rose 0.68%, marking the biggest gap between these two camps in 24 years. Even worse, the semiconductor sector crashed 11.4%, Nvidia dropped 6.6%, and CoreWeave collapsed 25%.
What does this picture tell us? It means the market logic has completely changed. In the past, anything related to AI would soar, but now with inflation pressing down, the market’s patience for tech giants spending huge sums on AI has run out. People are starting to ask, after burning so much money, when will they break even?
Capital is the smartest; it just ran away. It’s pulling out of overvalued AI tech stocks and flowing into traditional sectors like energy and consumer staples. So it’s not that Wall Street is out of money, they just don’t want to pay for those sky-high AI valuations for now.
What does this mean for our Bitcoin? Extremely unfriendly.
Bitcoin is tied to Nasdaq and tech stocks in terms of capital attributes. The bloodbath in US tech stocks shows that global risk appetite is sharply contracting. In this environment, Bitcoin is struggling to hold around 80,000 and could be dragged down further by this risk-off sentiment at any time. Large wallets are increasing their positions, but I first sensed hesitation among the crowd. When you see others quietly building positions, is your first reaction to follow, or to ask what they are betting on? Reviewing on-chain data these past two days, one detail made me pause for a long time: an address that had previously hoarded millions of altcoins withdrew 2,455,000 ONDO from an exchange twelve hours ago, worth about $1,144,000, at an average withdrawal price of $0.4662 per coin. This is not an empty test; it already holds three large positions in UNI, ONDO, and LTC, totaling about $9,218,000. Among them, the UNI holding is 1,014,000 coins at an average price of $8.79, with an unrealized loss of about $1,551,000; LTC is about 12,400 coins at an average price of $67.86, with an unrealized loss of about $101,000. My feeling staring at these numbers is very subtle. On one hand, there is continued accumulation despite unrealized losses; on the other, the market narrative fatigue is written all over faces, and fewer people in the group are asking "Can we still chase?" FOMO hasn’t disappeared, it has just turned into a quieter version: afraid to chase highs, but afraid to miss out on low-level chips. This sentiment most easily causes the market to grind lower volume rather than rally in one go. The cross-market linkage is even more worth watching. ONDO belongs to the RWA narrative, UNI is a veteran DeFi blue chip, LTC carries some payment and halving memory. The fact that one large holder holds all three indicates he is not betting on a single sector explosion, but rather on "when risk appetite warms, the value-oriented segment of altcoins will be repriced first." If BTC holds steady and ETH doesn’t drag behind, this kind of position is likely to attract follow-up.Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive spread shows a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +9.99%, far-month annualized +5.6%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +2.09%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.84%. Marked annualized and best bid-ask quotes do not match, the executable spread is even thinner.
$ETH best bid-ask positive spread corresponds to a very small scale. Buy near sell far quote spread +0.55%, best bid-ask paired scale about $994; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 10%. Insufficient best bid-ask capacity.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the best bid-ask quote for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +3.59%, far-month annualized +0.37%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.04%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.13%. Without a positive executable spread, do not place orders based on positive spread strategy. The Nasdaq dropped 5.5% this week, with chip stocks hitting an eight-day losing streak. Is Bitcoin about to be dragged down as well? Pharaoh directly said that this wave is the "AI faith" being violently rubbed into the ground. Although Bitcoin hasn't fallen, it is definitely trembling on the sidelines. Let's first look at how badly the US stock market has fallen. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5% this week, marking its worst weekly performance since April. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was even worse, with eight consecutive declines, the longest losing streak since 2018, and a cumulative drop of over 12% since the October 9 high. Micron fell 7.5%, Arm nearly 7%, Broadcom over 6%, and Nvidia also fell below the $180 mark. Why the crash? Three things hit at the same time. First, the AI faith is starting to waver. The market is no longer just looking at capital expenditure figures but is beginning to ask, "Where exactly is the return?" OpenAI reported annualized revenue of 50 billion instead of 70 billion, Oracle's cash flow is tight, and Anthropic's massive computing power agreement is being questioned on whether it can be fulfilled. The Bank of England directly warned that AI-related tech stock valuations "have clearly exceeded historical ranges" and there is a risk of a "sharp correction." Second, bank earnings reports disappointed. JPMorgan's investment banking and trading revenues both fell short of expectations, credit card and mortgage volumes stagnated, and the stock price once dropped over 4%, dragging down the entire banking sector. Even safe-haven funds sold gold, with spot gold falling more than $150 from its historical high. Third, the macro environment is unfriendly. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, the dollar is strengthening, and the government shutdown has lasted over 10 days A Bitcoin company started offering an annual interest rate of 15%.
Sounds like free money. But it priced the stock at 90, with a face value of 100.
So you pay 90, and they give you 15 per year — the return is 16.7%, not 15%.
They sold a total of 630 million USD.
Here’s the question:
What do you get for your 90? When you want to sell, can you sell it back for 90?
The company owes you 100, but that doesn’t mean you can get 100 back anytime.
These shares rank ahead of common stock; if the company truly liquidates, they pay you first.
But that’s the order during liquidation, not a guarantee you can redeem whenever you want.
Also, it’s perpetual — no maturity date, the company doesn’t have to repay your principal.
So the price depends only on what the next buyer is willing to pay.
If the company pays on time, the price might still drop to 75. It could also rise back to 100.
The 100 promise is equity, not cash.
Bought at 90.
After one year, you get 15 interest, then sell at 75.
15 + 75 = 90.
One year wasted.
Interest is paid in full, but the stock price drop wipes out the gain.
If it drops to 70, you even lose 5.
The advertised 15% is real, but it only covers interest, not how much you get when you sell.
Preferred stock sounds like a safe promise.
But who ranks before whom matters more than the name.
Example:
The company has 200 left. 100 goes to preferred stock, 50 to subordinated preferred stock, and 50 to common stock.
If the company loses 40, common stock gets cut first. $OKB positive factors remain, so why does the price continue to weaken?
OKB is fluctuating around $117 today, down about 6% in the past 7 days. The previous gains above $140 have been clearly given back, and the short-term trend remains weak.
On the news front, OKX recently received strategic investments from Circle, Ripple, QRT, and SC Ventures under Standard Chartered, with a pre-investment valuation of $25 billion. Coupled with the fixed total supply of 21 million OKB and the X Layer ecosystem layout, there are still positive factors in the mid to long term.
However, institutional investment in OKX does not equal direct buying of OKB.
Positions already held are watching whether $115–$118 can hold; those not yet in the market should not rush to chase the rebound. If it stabilizes again at $120–$123, further observation of stabilization is possible; if it continues to break below $115, downward risks need to be warned.
Spot trading does not require guessing the lowest point; patiently wait for trend confirmation #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Earnings reports are not just exterior light shows; they are stress tests on load-bearing walls. Netflix is set to deliver its Q3 results after the U.S. stock market closes: revenue around $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%, and an operating margin of 33.2%, compared to 28.2% in the same period last year. The numbers look like facade lines, but the real inspection point is underground: subscriptions are the existing load-bearing columns, advertising is the newly added cantilever slab, and profit improvement is either just cleaning up the joints or quietly loading the old foundation?
First, look at the structural logic. Subscription revenue is like the core tube—stable, continuous, and predictable—but once growth hits a plateau, every additional floor requires rechecking elevator shafts and fire safety redundancies; advertising is the newly added podium commercial space, which can expand rental income imagination but brings complex loads from foot traffic, circulation, fire safety, and structural torsion. If any of advertising fill rate, user time, content amortization, or customer acquisition cost is not well managed, the surface shows revenue growth, but in reality, it’s like cutting holes in shear walls. If the 33.2% operating margin comes from content spending pacing and one-time cost convergence, that’s just temporary support during construction; if it comes from simultaneous improvements in pricing power, advertising efficiency, and content asset turnover, that’s true structural optimization.
Next, consider the market linkage of this U.S. stock tokenized asset. It’s more like a curtain wall system hanging outside the main structure: it rattles first when the wind blows and lights up first when sentiment heats up, but the final displacement is controlled by the main beams and foundation. The after-hours earnings report is a wind vibration test, and the token price is the curtain wall accelerometer; short-term correlation depends on liquidity and risk appetite, but the long-term anchor remains whether Netflix’s cash flow, user retention, and advertising monetization can form a continuous load path. If the main structure’s stiffness is insufficient, the more dazzling the curtain wall, the more glaring the inter-story displacement.
In project work, the worst fear is “profit in renderings, leaks in construction drawings.” A 12 percentage point revenue growth is new floor area, and a 5 point margin increase is structural efficiency, but we must ask: is advertising revenue bought with more content investment? Is subscription growth piled up with low-price regions? Has operating leverage been eaten up by the content arms race? If advertising increments cannot convert into structural redundancy, the 33.2% margin is just a temporary reinforcement; no matter how bright the curtain wall is, it can’t hide the fatigue of the main beams. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 美国在线股票交易平台Robinhood Markets创始人兼首席执行官弗拉德・特涅夫（Vlad Tenev）本月出售了价值近4300万美元的公司股票，但这绝不代表他在大举套现离场。 上周社交媒体一条帖子广为传播，引发市场猜测。帖子称特涅夫“已经卖出全部股份，现在持股为零”，暗示这位CEO清空了自己在公司的股权。但这种解读与事实不符。 提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件显示，特涅夫在10月5日卖出37.5万股A类普通股，成交价格区间为112.62美元至115.48美元，套现约4260万美元。这笔交易完成后，特涅夫名下不再直接持有A类股票。 正如文件附注所说明的，特涅夫原本持有的并不是A类股份。他实际卖出的是37.5万股B类股份；根据2025年9月获批的预先安排交易计划，B类股份在成交时会自动转换为A类股份。 Robinhood采用双层股权结构：特涅夫所持每股拥有10票投票权的B类股票，一旦卖出就会自动转换成每股1票的A类股票。虽然这位CEO目前不直接持有A类股，但他保留了4740万股B类股，以及通过生前信托间接持有6907股A类股。按周四103.99美元的收盘价计算，特涅夫的持股📊Mainstream Altcoin Quick Overview: TD Signals Flashing Collectively, Critical Test at Key Levels
$XRP 1.305｜SOL 104.8｜DOGE $0.0803
$XRP
Is challenging the crucial 200-day moving average at 1.37, currently about 4% away.
The TD Sequential technical indicator shows multiple buy signals, with signs of selling pressure exhaustion.
Key point: Must break above 1.37 with volume, or this moving average will switch from support to strong resistance.
$SOL
Stuck at 105, with multiple short-term moving averages pressing down above: 7-day SMA 106.16, 50-day SMA 109.42, 20-day SMA 113.21.
TD Sequential gives buy signals in the 100-105 range. Holding this range targets 111 first, then 120 further on.
$DOGE
Institutional ETF channels are basically closed off. Bitwise's BWOW ETF was suspended on October 14 and liquidated on the 22nd; the three DOGE ETFs raised less than $12 million total, effectively cutting off institutional funding through this route.
TD Sequential shows a buy signal at 0.080; holding this level targets 0.087, while breaking it points directly to psychological support at 0.075.
👉Among these TD buy signals, which do you think has the highest credibility?
$XRP $SOL $DOGE
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $OP｜Continuous positive news, but short-term pullback again!
OP fell back to around $0.13 today, down about 6% in 24 hours. It previously failed to break through $0.15 and weakened again in the short term.
On the news front, Unichain plans to migrate to OP Enterprise on October 29, and Optimism recently announced new progress in ecosystem development. There are still positive factors for long-term growth. However, ecosystem expansion does not mean the OP token will immediately benefit.
For those with existing spot positions, focus on whether $0.128–0.13 can hold steady; if it rebounds to $0.145–0.15, observe whether it can break through effectively. For those not yet in the market, it is not recommended to rush to bottom-fish; if it falls below $0.128, watch for risks near $0.12.
Short-term outlook is for support; mid-to-long-term depends on whether ecosystem value can be transmitted to OP. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus $📉 Storage stocks collectively plunge: what's being cut is valuation, not industry fundamentals
In short: Micron MU, SanDisk SNDK, and SK Hynix all fell together this round, not because storage fundamentals suddenly worsened, but due to a combination of high valuation correction, Korea's buyback support withdrawal, cooling AI expectations, and rising US Treasury yields.
//
🧨 01｜Korea's buyback ends early, safety cushion disappears
Samsung and SK Hynix previously conducted large buybacks, effectively providing a buffer for stock prices. After the early end of buybacks in early October, the market worries about the lack of continued support from major players, leading to concentrated selling by Korean funds. This pressure then transmitted to US storage stocks, making high-priced targets natural profit-taking candidates.
//
📉 02｜The real pressure is for 2027–2028
Current fundamentals aren't that bad: demand for HBM and server DRAM remains strong, some product prices are still rising, and orders haven't suddenly disappeared. But the capital market prices the future; once AI capital expenditure expectations are revised downward, long-term profit prospects shrink, and valuations come under pressure first.
//
📈 03｜Rising US Treasury yields hurt high valuations more
Higher yields lower the valuation denominator for growth stocks. Storage stocks, being at high levels, are more sensitive to interest rate changes, so capital chooses to withdraw first.
Overall, this looks more like a high-level valuation cut rather than a complete reversal of industry logic. #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Brent crude oil has stepped firmly onto $110, this is not just a normal warming, but a deep red shear line pressed out over the Strait of Hormuz. It closed at $109.86/barrel on the 16th, a single-day rise of 3.7%, the highest since May; at the same time, an oil tanker near Jubail, Saudi Arabia, was hit by an unidentified projectile, the crew evacuated safely, and the shipping impact remains like low-visibility sea fog, with radar echoes showing clutter and path errors not converging. More critically, weekly oil flow through Hormuz has plummeted about 43% compared to before the conflict, this is not a small cold front, but a conveyor belt cut off, warm and humid air cannot rise, and the cumulus clouds in the global crude oil market are rapidly thickening.
From a meteorological duty perspective, $110 is the strong convection trigger threshold. A 3.7% daily increase is like a gust of wind, first overturning the weak visibility on the board; a 43% drop in flow is a break in the ocean current conveyor belt, freight, insurance, and delivery cycles will all follow with a storm surge. The US plans to release up to 17 million barrels from strategic reserves, equivalent to artificial rainfall in a drought area, which can lower short-term surface temperatures but cannot change the framework of the subtropical high pressure. Alternative exports and backup routes are like detour flight paths, able to divert some moisture, but capacity, port windows, and risk premiums are still stuck in the shear line. Whether the attack further disrupts transit and whether reserve releases can stabilize oil prices are currently in the divergent zone of ensemble forecasts, with a wide probability range.
Shifting focus to the US stock token $xMSTR, the linkage logic is not a single-line transmission but a double circulation superposition. High oil prices are a cost-side low-pressure trough, energy inflation expectations rise, interest rate paths are relatively dry and cold, and liquidity vapor in risk assets is being drawn out; meanwhile, US stock risk appetite and on-chain market depth form wind shear, with $xMSTR first experiencing short-term gusts in the thin liquidity layer. If Brent continues to hold above triple digits, $xMSTR’s volatility will rise like thunderstorm cloud tops, alternating rebounds and sharp drops, with direction repeatedly cut by the oil price front; if shipping impacts are confirmed limited and reserve releases cause short-term cooling, risk appetite may gain a period of clear sky window, but the -43% cold pool in Hormuz flow remains and cannot be taken as a signal to stop monitoring.
My duty judgment is only one sentence: $110 is not the finish line, it is a new weather base map; as long as Hormuz flow remains in the -43% cold pool, every rebound of $xMSTR must first pass through this oil price front. #brenttouches$110Weekend candlesticks, can't interpret Friday's statement
On October 16, Farside recorded a net outflow of $82.4 million from the US BTC spot ETF. But this data "expired" by the weekend—the ETF secondary market is regularly closed, while crypto spot trading continues as usual. The two timelines are out of sync, so Friday's report can't answer the sudden trades that appeared on Saturday.
When you see a large address buying at this time, don't hastily conclude "institutional funds are absorbing." One participant willing to buy means other sellers might be willing to sell at the same price. What really needs to be observed is: after the purchase, can the price hold steady, and is there sustained trading afterward.
The easiest weekend misjudgment is to prematurely declare a reversal of fund sentiment based on a small rebound. Used to watching ETF inflows and outflows, it's easy to treat them as real-time directional signals, but fund statistics have their own update rhythm, and actual trades don't wait for reports.
Weekend price changes can provide clues, but don't prematurely speak for next week's buyers. Whether the price can recover after a pullback, and whether ETF creations/redemptions support that recovery after the US stock market reopens, all require continued observation. Especially don't endure volatility unwillingly just because of a phrase like "a whale is absorbing."
Whether $80,000 can hold or not, there is currently insufficient evidence to give a definite answer. The weekend market is only responsible for itself.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $YFI vault TVL rose ~45% from Jun 30 to Sep 30 ($141M to $205M, DefiLlama). Monthly protocol revenue went the other way, $39.1K to $33.1K.
Deposits aren’t income. Revenue is a cut of vault yield, and gross yield slipped too ($705K to $606K a month). And since Feb 5 it’s a direct share, not a buyback: 90% of revenue goes to stYFI stakers. Sept paid them $29.8K.
So yield per dollar deposited is the number to watch, not the TVL headline.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins $SAND 今天$SAND 再次大涨，能否做空？
拉升核心逻辑：逼空与局部流动性解禁
· 韩国交易所解除警告：这是最直接的导火索。此前因跨链桥漏洞（增发了149亿枚无抵押SAND），Upbit、Bithumb等韩国交易所对SAND设定了交易警示并限制了存取款。
· 衍生品连环爆仓：急涨直接触发了空头踩踏。
· 缺乏基本面支撑：这轮上涨属于典型的“流动性事件+空头回补”。
高位做空的致命隐患
· 资金费率与空头拥挤度：虽然价格急速反弹，但部分合约平台的资金费率仍处于负值，意味着空头依然在向多头支付高昂费用。这表明不少空头还在逆势硬扛，一旦价格突破关键阻力，极易触发第二波更猛烈的“空头挤压”。
如果确信这波上涨最终会回落，更稳妥的思路是右侧做空：
1. 等逼空动能衰竭：密切观察资金费率是否回正、持仓量是否开始高位回落。
2. 寻找阻力位破位：关注短线多头结构被破坏的确认信号。一旦价格无法继续创出新高，并在高位出现明显的放量滞涨或长上影线，再考虑顺势试空。
3. 严格设置止损：在波动率如此剧烈的标的上，止损空间需要适当放宽，并严格控制单笔仓位。 $AAOI belongs to the AI industry investment fund pool which is nearly depleted, with no new purchases, only sales remaining.$ETH Bullish: Top whales stop loss and close short positions, ETH short side loosens
On-chain monitoring shows that a whale address with cumulative earnings exceeding $128 million recently reduced about $10.35 million worth of ETH short positions, closing with a loss of about $207,000.
Currently, the total value of its ETH short positions has dropped to about $198 million.
The loss-taking on short positions releases two signals:
On one hand, whales choose to deleverage and hedge, indicating strong resistance above.
On the other hand, even top shorts are starting to fear a short-term oversold rebound and are taking profits early.
The market is currently extremely low in volume, with a lack of incremental funds. The loosening of large short holders' chips reduces the selling pressure in the market, marginally increasing the probability of a short-term short squeeze rebound.
Going forward, it is important to closely watch this address's further actions and the accompanying market volume.To elaborate on the debt model of the new cloud factory: they sign contracts with banks to buy cards for construction at the latest loan interest rates, then sign annual lease contracts with giants like model companies and Google Cloud, earning the spread and bearing the card depreciation. Interest rate hikes directly push up their loan rates, compressing the spread to a certain extent, resulting in huge losses when operating. This is the core reason behind the valuation kill in this round of the AI chain. $CRWV $BTC 79,500 deserves to be singled out because it simultaneously stacks three things below it.
This week's low point is at 79,800. On Thursday, there was a liquidation of 930 million in one day, with 780 million being long positions — basically, the leverage that wanted to exit did so all at once. Below that, the densest cluster on the liquidation chart falls exactly between 79,000 and 79,500. Further down is the cost basis of the whales who opened new positions this year, roughly 77,000, and the current price is still over six points higher.
With these three layers stacked together, this position is not just a casually drawn line.
But the counter-evidence must also be presented. The buy wall at 80,000 was eaten once this week, and the new orders replenishing it are thinner than before — on the third test, the depth of buyers was less than the first two times. Also, the cost band from 80,000 to 82,500 holds 780,000 coins, of which only 20% are long-term holders; this group will run at the slightest sign of trouble, so if it really crashes downward, this segment will collapse first.
Another detail: 81,000 is a zero gamma level; once broken, market makers' hedging will shift from suppressing volatility to amplifying it.
Therefore, the significance of 79,500 is not "it won't reach there," but rather "the first reaction after it reaches there." If it holds, Thursday's move counts as a shakeout; if the close doesn't recover above it, the next reference point is 78,000. ⚡能源警报拉响！油价暴涨股市重挫，BTC/ETH进入钝刀磨底期
IEA预警柴油紧缺或将延续至2027年，叠加俄乌冲突加剧供应风险，全球风险资产集体承压，大饼、以太坊缩量阴跌磨底。
$BTC
从82600持续走弱，凌晨跌破81000整数关口。82300关键支撑、81500短线止损接连告破，ETF机构成本线二度失守，下行风险进一步放大。
重点提醒，这次是缩量钝刀子割肉，没有集中爆仓出清，阴跌折磨会持续。
更大的隐性风险已经浮现：MSTR暴跌9.7%，MSCI拟修改指数规则，MSTR大概率被剔除，11月11日公布名单，数十亿被动抛压悬顶，直接动摇多头根基。
利好仅有美联储已经进入政策静默期。
技术上81000反转成为压力，80400迎来第四次终极考验；一旦失守，下一目标80000、78000。
$ETH
同步走弱，反复刺破2400又被买盘收回，陷入区间煎熬震荡。
ETF资金持续流出，机构资金缺席，上方2450‑2500套牢盘压制极强。
不破2317，则维持2350‑2500箱体来回；有效跌破直接下看2250，短线止损2385。
$BTC $ETH#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 📊 早盘流动性观察：空头订单持续累积
24 小时全网爆仓 2.24 亿，该数值反映当前盘口买盘流动性正被持续消耗。盘口买卖盘失衡明显，下方 80770、2391 两处集中了大量多头止损订单，属于流动性磁石区域；上方 82500-83200、2490-2500 存在密集卖单，是流动性陷阱。
4 小时时段爆仓占比偏高，资金费率转负叠加现货 ETF 资金分化，订单簿深度进一步变薄。宏观加息预期下调，但风险资产抛压未消，流动性结构往往会提前反映价格动向。
等待价格站稳上方阻力区间，才代表盘口流动性结构完成重构。不要在流动性断层处盲目开仓。市场如同潮汐，资金流动才是底层的浪。
$BTC $ETH $SOL #纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌
兄弟们，美股这周被AI信仰反噬了。纳指100单周跌5.5%，创2025年4月以来最差表现；费城半导体指数连续8个交易日下跌，八天累计跌幅超13%，市值蒸发约2万亿美元，创2008年金融危机以来最长连跌纪录。
核心矛盾是AI投资回报的账算不过来了。瑞银测算AI资本开支越来越依赖高息债务，10年期美债收益率升破5%后，融资成本与估值贴现率双重抬升。美光单周跌14.6%，存储芯片指数累跌17.6%；CoreWeave债券收益率飙至15%以上，已进入困境区间。
BTC现价约81,500，这周受科技股拖累一度跌破80,000，但每次砸下去都被迅速买回，8万关口展现出韧性。上方阻力83,000，下方支撑80,000。有仓位止损放79,500下方；空仓等回踩80,500附近缩量企稳再接。美股科技股的风险出清没完，别在反弹里追高。
你怎么看这波AI交易的回撤？评论区聊聊。$BTC $ETH $ZEC The main reason for this sharp drop in CRWV, I think, is that the new cloud company's debt model collided with the interest rate hikes. No matter what Jensen Huang says, he can't decide the Federal Reserve's rates. If the new cloud company's business model can't keep moving, AI computing power construction might run into problems, and the entire industry chain will suffer together. $CRWV MSCI has given Bitcoin Treasury company a "reprieve": MSTR may be kicked out of the index by the end of November, with JPMorgan estimating passive selling pressure at $2.8 billion.
On October 15, MSCI finalized new rules that "non-operating companies" are not eligible for the MSCI Global Index, directly impacting Strategy's 848,250 BTC holdings.
The final list will be released on November 11, effective after market close on November 30; the buffer clause requires failing the criteria for two consecutive fiscal years before removal, so it's not an automatic exit.
On Friday, MSTR fell another 9.6% to close at 136.83, down about 75% from its peak of 543.
My view: Saylor calls this a "discriminatory rule," but the company itself disclosed that MSCI-linked funds hold only about 13 million shares (3.1% of the float), claiming "less than one day's trading volume." Both sides have their own narratives; the true outcome will be clear with the November 11 list.
The negative impact has mostly been priced in; shorting now is like catching a falling knife, so I choose to observe rather than chase.
The conditions for invalidation are clear: if MSTR is not on the November 11 list, the selling pressure logic is invalid; if it is on the list, the real selling pressure will be from portfolio adjustments before the November 30 effective date.
Do you bet MSTR will be on the November 11 list? Yes or no?
$MSTR $BTC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Learned my lesson: don't dump seven or eight million into a single volatile stock at once. If you buy over 3 million and the trading volume exceeds 0.3% of the day's total, you'll get questioned. I actually only took 11%, not even hitting two daily limit-ups. From the regulatory perspective, this stock has already entered the abnormal fluctuation monitoring range, considered one of the tail-end signals.