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$BTC's "decent" 80,000 and $ETH's "fig leaf" 2500 — these two things are more interesting to look at separately than together right now.
$BTC: Holding 80,000 is not because the bulls are strong, but because the bears haven't gotten the cards they want yet.
The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, a full point higher than expected, and PPI also exceeded expectations. Half a year ago, such data would have pushed $BTC down to the 70,000 range at least. But this time it stubbornly held 8000The real trigger is on Wall Street: CoreWeave suffers a double hit in stocks and bonds
This round of pressure on the crypto market is not about crypto itself, but the first time the market has shorted the credit pricing of AI infrastructure:
CoreWeave plunged 25% in a single week, the five-year CDS spread broke through 1000 basis points, bond yields soared to about 15% (junk bond range), implied default probability exceeded 60%, carrying about $50 billion in debt.
Transmission chain: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 11%, Nasdaq dropped 4.5% in a week (worst week of the year) → Today, South Korea's KOSPI opened below 5600 points, down 3.17% intraday (SK Hynix -4%, Samsung -3%), Nikkei 225 fell 2.2%, losing 64000 points.
This is the root cause why BTC can't hold above 83,000: risk appetite has been drained by the AI sector overall, and crypto is now deeply tied to Wall Street sentiment. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ This rebound is an oversold recovery triggered by macro pressure,
CPI/PPI exceeded expectations → rate cuts delayed → ETF outflows → leveraged longs liquidated → price rebound.
But the rebound stopped at the resistance zone, volume didn’t keep up, and sentiment didn’t heat up. Altcoins cooled down simultaneously, with over $134 billion outflows in 15 days; funds are being withdrawn, not rushed in.
The real variable ahead isn’t in the candlesticks but whether FOMC on October 28 and ETF funds can turn positive.
Before that, recovery is recovery, reversal is reversal, don’t mix them.
$BTC $ETH
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $RENDER
Decentralized GPU networks sit at an interesting intersection of computing, creative production, and AI infrastructure. Render’s long-term opportunity depends on whether distributed resources can meet real workloads at competitive prices and reliable service levels. AI demand may create favorable conditions, but competition from centralized cloud providers is formidable. Actual compute utilization matters more than the AI label.SK Hynix's OKEx token today at 141.5 is hugging the resistance line, up 4.58% in 24h hitting a new high for the period, but this morning the Korean KOSPI spot price of the company actually dropped over 4%—the market and spot are diverging, which is quite interesting.
The storage/HBM sector has been hot all October: Citigroup analysts called for "October storage positioning" at the start of the month, with 2027 HBM demand expected to rise by 62% (market consensus is only 30%); at the OCP summit, Samsung and Hynix showcased next-generation memory, maintaining HBM's global market share leadership at 60%. However, SK Hynix had no new announcements today, and the Korean spot price is still falling, so this move looks more like token-side capital rushing ahead.
From the market perspective: OKEx xSKHY current price 141.53 is close to resistance at 141.60, MA5/MA30/MA120 are bullish, super trend at 139.13 below, RSI 64, 24h volume 7.32 million USDT, quite active. My judgment: the token is stronger than the spot, often reflecting expectations of a "US stock rebound on Monday open," but until it materializes, it's just speculation.
Watch two signals: a volume breakout above resistance 141.6 and how far it can go above the US stock close on 10/16 at 136.5, whether the pullback holds the super trend at 139; also observe how the US stock opens on Monday and whether the price gap narrows.
#SKHynix #HBM #StorageChips
Not investment advice, DYOR No time to look closely during the day at work, so I lowered the screen brightness at night. When I came across this trade, the drowsiness actually faded a bit. 🌙 Core Trader 56 (0xb663c9…e1da0) opened a long position on $SP500 with 49x leverage, with a nominal position of about $385,800. At first glance, this number feels quite overwhelming, and I almost took it as evidence of a bullish stance.
But I prefer to see it as a highly risk-compressed directional bet rather than confirmation of the market trend. Opening a long position shows the choice of this address, but it doesn't mean the choice has been validated by the market; it's still just an open position, with no realized win or loss.
What made me pause are two ratios: roughly calculating initial margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, the initial margin is about $7,874, not $385,800 principal put up; if the price moves about 1% against the position, the loss would be about $3,858, which is 49% of this estimated margin. This is a simplified estimate; actual liquidation depends on margin mode, maintenance margin, etc., so you can't just draw a liquidation line directly.
A note to myself: the thing to guard against most late at night is mistaking the shock of a large position for a basis for judgment. Who else is still awake at this hour, watching SP500 or other assets? When you see a 49x long like this, do you first check the price trend or look for margin and liquidation info?#AI或推GDP至44万亿，投资能否回本？
Anthropic's co-founder dropped a bombshell, claiming that with AI, the US GDP could reach $44 trillion by 2030. Goldman Sachs chimed in, saying that by 2026, the US alone will have to pour $600 billion into AI investments, accounting for 2% of GDP.
Sounds exciting, right? But let me tell you, the market isn’t buying it anymore. According to the old playbook, when interest rates drop, tech stocks and AI stocks should have already skyrocketed. So what happened? The AI sector is still lying flat, playing dead.
What does this mean? It means the market’s concern is no longer about "whether interest rates are high or not," but rather "whether those trillions invested can actually be recouped."
What are the implications?
First, macro sentiment suppression. If Wall Street starts doubting AI’s profitability, tech stocks will face valuation cuts. When tech stocks crash and Nasdaq weakens, highly volatile assets like Bitcoin definitely won’t escape. Bitcoin lacks big capital driving it and is being held down by this cautious sentiment.
Second, the life-or-death situation for AI concepts in the crypto space. Even traditional giants investing hundreds of billions are being questioned by the market on how to monetize. Crypto projects that don’t even have products and just ride the AI hype with whitepapers will definitely die faster than anyone else.
Don’t listen to big shots bragging about GDP hitting trillions; you have to look at corporate profit statements. These grand narratives are often just pie-in-the-sky stories. For us traders, it’s all about capital flow. Let them finish spinning their tales first.🔷CryptoX-ray #1: $ZRO - unlock tomorrow for $44M
Conflict:
Zero promises institutional investors, but the token is currently getting buybacks of about ~$3.3M. Fee switch is off.
• October 20: 23.63M ZRO (5.9% circulating supply)
• FDV ~$1.9B, only 40% circulating
• Lawsuit after KelpDAO hack for $292M: currently plaintiff's allegations
Red flag: supply pressure. Verdict: watching, key level - $1.80.
Unlock tomorrow: will they buy back or dump? 👇
#OKXTraderVoices #芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？
韩股深V，是抄底还是逃命？海力士这波我讲句实话
兄弟们，今天韩股这走法，低开三个多点硬生生拉红，看着爽，但别上头。海力士盘前一度崩了6个点，收盘才勉强平盘附近。这哪是情绪见底？这是外资和机构在5000点关口硬托了一把，盘中净买了三千多亿韩元，散户在割肉。说白了，是超跌反抽，不是反转。
消息面上，AI泡沫论还没散，CoreWeave信用那摊子事没完，晚上美股存储情绪别指望韩股给多大提振。夜盘美光、海力士ADR小反弹那是跌多了的技术修复。链上定价早就在博弈今晚美股高开低走，别只看韩股热闹。
方向上，看短期调整，不是继续反弹。海力士今天那根下影线是止损盘堆出来的，不是主力建仓。手痒的等回踩，追高必挨打。ETF is running, whales are buying: Who holds the trump card for BTC this round?
In October, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $615 million, and ETH ETFs had a weekly outflow of $320 million, due to CPI exceeding expectations and delayed rate cuts. However, whales increased their BTC holdings by 86,700 coins over three weeks, with exchange balances hitting a new low for 2023; ETH whales swept 166,000 coins in 72 hours, with staking rates at a historic high of 36%. ETF tactics are retreating, while accumulation is happening on-chain.
$BTC: 82,000 is the pivot, 83,000 is the gate. Only above that can we look to 84,000–85,500; below, defend 80,700–81,100.
$ETH: 2,400 just triggered shorts, with 97% of 1-hour liquidations being shorts; but active longs are only 53%–58%, lacking chase buying. Holding 2,400 suggests recovery; breaking below 2,398 with rising open interest signals risk of pullback.
Focus on three things: whether ETF outflows can narrow; how BTC 83,000 and ETH 2,400 are handled; and the FOMC on October 27–28.
Planet rules favor trading content, with higher weight on $BTC and $ETH. Share less about leverage, more about positions and responses.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH? Roadster combined the technologies of two companies into one car, and the market has started discussing whether to also combine the stocks of the two companies into the same story.
A Barclays analyst recently proposed the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX. To clarify: this is the analyst's judgment, not a company-announced deal yet.
The collaboration is exciting, but whether the merger is worthwhile still needs separate calculation. Engineers can work on projects together, but the returns shareholders receive must be allocated based on pricing, shareholding ratios, and transaction terms. Even with the same founder, the interests of shareholders on both sides will not automatically align completely.
Assuming a deal does happen in the future, the most important aspect to watch will be the share exchange ratio. It determines how much of SpaceX's future Tesla shareholders can receive and how much control SpaceX shareholders are willing to cede. If the ratio is unbalanced, no matter how appealing the story is, it won't support the valuation; if the ratio is reasonable, the combination of technology and capital could turn the concept into reality. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC $ETH The strength difference between the two during the day is very obvious, everyone please avoid altcoins and stick closely to BTC.
Volume and Market Observation｜BTC & ETH 30-minute simultaneous comparison post
Why is ETH's rebound always weaker than BTC? Don't be fooled by the illusion of synchronized rises; the strength divergence is already written on the chart!
From the market trend perspective, BTC's 30-minute box range is maintained more solidly, with lows continuously rising, clear support from moving averages, and MACD red bars continuously releasing, indicating stronger capital support. In contrast, ETH's rebound height during the same period is insufficient; each rebound struggles to break through the previous purple box, showing passive follow-up. BTC actively bears pressure, while ETH passively follows—this is a typical strength gap within the sector. Once the market turns downward, ETH's decline speed will be much faster than BTC's.
Macro summary: U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, no substantial strengthening in rate cut expectations, market funds tend to seek safety, prioritizing leading BTC, with insufficient confidence in altcoins like ETH. The current rebound is a battle of existing funds; incremental funds have not entered. The pattern of strong leaders and weak second-tier coins is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
The market's strength and weakness do not lie; choose strength over weakness when the market rebounds. Following the crowd will never withstand large fluctuations. It's better to hold strong leaders than weak assets—this is the survival rule the market repeatedly teaches us!$APR is heading down this week. Current price is 0.02687, with only 4 days left until the 10-23 unlock, which falls right into the period where our backtest showed the most concentrated underperformance. In the two-year sample, about three-quarters of the events underperformed the market in the week before large unlocks, with consistent direction in the samples before and after. The market is cooperating as well. Daily volatility is 42.2%, trading volume is 100 million USD, contract open interest is only 10 million, so turnover is mainly in spot, mostly taken by those wanting to exit before the unlock. Long positions were liquidated for 610,000 USD, shorts only 260,000; the spike up was hammered back down, hurting the bulls who chased in. The moving averages on the chart show a bearish alignment, rebound volume is shrinking, matching the supply pressure before the unlock. RSI at 25 is already in the weak zone, but selling pressure in this window is not over yet; the oversold reading can't support the price. Conditions to turn bullish: retake and hold above 0.0324 before the unlock; this judgment is now invalid. After the unlock, backtests show no stable direction, so we will reassess then.MicroStrategy has been hit by the new MSCI regulations this time, giving the market consensus of "buying MSTR is equivalent to buying BTC" a lesson. The intrinsic attributes of Bitcoin itself have not changed, but the stock price of the listed company holding it now has to bear an additional layer of pressure.
First, let's clarify the timeline: MSCI has announced adjustments to the eligibility rules for non-operating companies. The list of affected securities is planned to be published on November 11, and the related adjustments will be officially implemented after the market close on November 30. Therefore, the current rule risk cannot be directly equated with MicroStrategy having been officially removed.
However, the market will not wait obediently until the implementation date to react. Investors will anticipate potential changes in index demand in advance and adjust their holdings; some who worry about subsequent financing conditions will also reassess the stock's premium logic relative to BTC assets. When the crutch of index funds might be pulled away, simply viewing MSTR as a leveraged token of Bitcoin clearly overlooks its structural risks as a listed company. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ It dropped again last night, what’s next for $ETH? Here’s my own thinking.
Around 2300, there have already been three wicks, with a low of 2313.39.
From the 4-hour chart perspective, this area currently has some support. If the short-term can continue to hold and the lows start to rise, I will watch for rebound opportunities.
But where to look for the rebound first?
The first target is 2450–2480, which is a relatively obvious resistance area recently.
If it can break through with volume and hold steady, the next target is 2560–2580, but this requires a stronger trend to support it.
Of course, this is just a technical observation path; no reversal is visible yet.
Because ETF funds have not clearly flowed back. Data shows that from October 12 to 16, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $549 million, and stablecoin supply and DeFi are also declining.
This means even if there is a short-term rebound, caution is needed against a spike and fall caused by insufficient funds.
As for the 2300 level, consecutive wicks are a good sign, but you can’t assume it won’t fall further just because there were three wicks.
Be bullish when it’s time to be bullish, and cautious when it’s time to be cautious.
Wait for the market to give signals first, and respond in batches.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH?
@OKX星球 BTC: The leverage ratio has moved from theoretical to empirical. Strategy holds about 844,000 BTC, but approximately $22 billion belongs to lenders and preferred shareholders, leaving common shareholders with net reserves of only about $36 billion. Its "leverage ratio" is about 1.53 times, meaning losses borne by common shareholders are significantly amplified when the coin price falls—MSTR dropped about 77% in one year, while BTC fell about 45% in the same period. Strive's SATS preferred stock pays a 15% dividend; after issuance, the capital structure includes about $2.8 billion in common equity, $1.4 billion in preferred SATA, and $700 million in subordinated SATS, with no debt. Its investor materials assume BTC grows 50% annually, with the 35% difference after the 15% dividend accruing to common stock, which is the positive scenario of the leverage logic. But the opposite also holds: if the coin price stagnates or falls, the high dividend continuously erodes common equity, the leverage ratio passively rises, creating procyclical pressure. ETH: There is preferred stock financing, but the leverage structure is not yet typical. Bitmine, as the largest ETH treasury company, once issued perpetual preferred stock with a 9.5% dividend to raise funds to buy ETH, but larger-scale financing mainly relies on common stock issuance and ATM, with authorized capital expanding about 100 times since transformation. Its staking yield is about 2.6% annualized, far below the fixed cost of 9.5% preferred stock, and the gap must be made up by ETH appreciation or continuous issuance.#The Hormuz reopening plan is still valid, can oil prices continue to fall? Historical similar sentiment reappears, smart money chip behavior is worth observing
The current market sentiment structure highly overlaps with the periods before the two rallies in mid-August and mid-September, with retail investors' expected price points rising again. Smart money does not follow market sentiment to shout target prices but is observing the stratified flow of chips: risk asset corrections often occur in sequence, altcoins complete a round of release first, and Ethereum has also experienced a full pullback.
In terms of capital behavior, during this downturn phase, Bitcoin has stronger support; even if it continues to probe lower, the space for altcoins and Ethereum to further synchronize deep declines is limited. Capital makes differentiated choices among different varieties, not simply rising and falling together. In a bull market cycle, sentiment evolution often follows a fixed path, advancing gradually amid doubts and peaking during the frenzy phase.
The core price level observed this round is at 77500.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC SpaceX ended Q2 with about $100B in cash and securities — a spectacular balance sheet at first glance
But it raised roughly $85.7B in its IPO and issued $25B in bonds
In the first half, operations generated just $3.5B while investing activities used $34.5B
That cash cushion buys time, not proof the model funds itself
For Q3, I'm watching operating cash generation against the capital still needed to scale
#SpaceXQ3Earnings Tesla's earnings this quarter: Sales might exceed expectations, but profits likely won't?
$TSLA earnings this quarter, my judgment in one sentence:
Revenue might slightly beat expectations, but EPS will be hard to beat, and might even miss expectations.
First, the highlights:
Q3 deliveries were 486,500 vehicles, about 5.3% higher than the analyst consensus of approximately 462,000. Model 3/Y are the main drivers, and energy storage also reached 13.7 GWh, up about 9.6% year-over-year.
So on the revenue side, a slight beat is indeed possible.
But the problem lies in profits, with greater pressure:
1️⃣ Last year's Q3 was a peak before tax credits expired, so the base was very high; deliveries this quarter are down 2.1% year-over-year.
2️⃣ Sales were driven by price cuts and incentives, squeezing per-vehicle profit. Last quarter's operating margin was only 1.4%, and automotive gross margin excluding credits was 16.3%.
3️⃣ Robotaxi, AI, and Optimus are all burning cash. Capital expenditures this quarter are expected to be nearly $7.94 billion, with free cash flow expected at -$4.09 billion.
So this quarter's earnings will likely be very "divided."
Car sales aren't bad, but profitability might look weak.
The market's focus may not be "how many cars were sold," but "how much profit can be made from selling cars" and whether the AI and Robotaxi stories can support the valuation.
What do you think Tesla's earnings this quarter will be:
A. Revenue beats expectations, profits beat too
B. Revenue slightly beats, profits miss
C. Both miss, post-market plunge
Comment your pick. Pure earnings preview, not investment advice There is a truth hidden in SpaceX's launch data that most people overlook: rockets are both products for external orders and infrastructure for their own business.
Out of 38 launches in the second quarter, 28 were internal missions, and only 10 served external customers. If all launches were treated as paid orders and multiplied by an imagined single launch price, the calculated revenue would inevitably be distorted.
This is precisely the cleverness of SpaceX — internal launches are cost expenditures at the time, but can be continuously monetized through subsequent services like Starlink. Rockets send satellites into space, and satellites then deliver networks to users, providing a recovery channel for the initial investment.
Therefore, when looking at SpaceX's performance, one should not only focus on whether the number of launches breaks records. Its business logic has never been a single launch service provider, but a closed-loop ecosystem of "launch + service." Understanding this is key to grasping the underlying logic behind its high valuation. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ Overnight Review: Approximately $293 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for nearly 64%, and over 90,000 people liquidated. However, the short-term momentum has reversed: in the past hour, short position liquidations once exceeded 97%, and on a 4-hour scale, short liquidations clearly dominate. The decline first wiped out longs, and as the rebound begins, those chasing shorts are too late to exit.
ETH saw about $93.99 million liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts around $53.85 million, significantly higher than longs. After the price returned near $2400, short squeezes intensified. The technical outlook remains weak, but the rebound doesn't need to be strong; as long as it breaks through the dense short position zone, the short-term rally will be driven by short-covering stop losses.
BTC liquidations in 24 hours were about $67.7 million, with longs and shorts roughly balanced. The price is holding near $81,000–$82,000, with $80,000 still a key support level. Resistance is seen at $83,000, and if $80,000 breaks, downward pressure will quickly increase. Macro data is relatively strong, and with the FOMC approaching, volatility could ignite at any time.
ZEC liquidations in 24 hours were about $6.08 million, with longs dominating, but shorts also took a hit in the short term. The $1070–$1090 range remains a key observation zone, and breaking below the $1000 mark is not impossible. High-volatility assets are most vulnerable to heavy chasing once the direction is perceived correctly.
The Fear and Greed Index rose from 53 back to 59, entering the "Greed" zone. Liquidations hurt, but sentiment is recovering, indicating the market is not collapsing but rotating: long leverage has been cleared, short margin has been eaten up, and survivors are placing new bets.Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
The support at BTC's 80,000 level and ETH's rebound at 2,500 have different underlying logics, which is worth paying close attention to.
$BTC this time withstood the unexpectedly high CPI data and did not dip into the 70,000 range; the fear and greed index has risen back into the greed zone. However, this resilience is not due to a bullish offensive; the core reason is the massive options open interest at the 80,000 strike price, with market makers passively supporting the price through Gamma hedging. This is mechanical support, not driven by spot buying. Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows in October, and ETH ETFs have experienced several consecutive days of redemptions. CoinShares characterizes the current state as merely a volatile tug-of-war, not a trend reversal. After options hedging expires and positions migrate, the support strength will weaken.
$ETH and $ZEC's rebound at 2,500 is merely a risk appetite recovery after overselling; the on-chain supply and demand fundamentals have not improved. The mainnet fee burn efficiency is very low, with a large amount of traffic and fees accumulating on L2s like Base. The mainnet deflation narrative has basically failed, tokens continue to have net issuance, and circulating supply keeps increasing.
Going forward, focus on tracking PCE, employment data, and the direction of position migration after options expiration. Do not mistake short-term resilience for a major reversal.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 这波$BTC 、$ETH 、$SOL 的上涨，核心不是币圈自己“变强了”，而是宏观流动性修复 + ETF/机构资金回流 + 杠杆放大共同推的。
BTC主要吃流动性预期，企业买盘和ETF资金提供边际承接，盘中一度冲上8.4万美元； ETH靠现货ETF资金回流和RWA叙事修复，弹性比BTC更大； SOL则叠加了ETF资金流入、链上活跃地址创新高、RWA和稳定币增长。
但别急着追高。这轮上涨里杠杆占比不低，CPI/PPI一扰动，就容易出现急杀和爆仓。后面盯三件事：美债收益率和通胀数据、ETF周度资金流、资金费率与未平仓合约。流动性续命，多头还有戏；一旦ETF转流出、杠杆过热，回调会来得很快。
Two short positions, one +1712.17%, the other +390.88%, with a total unrealized profit of 21.81U. This is not a bragging post about profits, but a case study on "how to survive shorting against the trend amid rebound noise." $ZEC dropped from 1695.50 to 1079.44, down 4.22% intraday, 15.39% over 7 days; $SAND was pushed down from a high of 0.06690 to 0.05826. What’s truly worth pondering is not the percentages, but that both trends experienced decent rebounds yet never managed to reclaim lost ground. First, look at $ZEC’s structure. Short opened at 1643.38, 50x leverage full position, leaving only 0.03 coins, mark price 1080.63, unrealized profit 16.88U. On the 12-hour chart, SAR is at 1203.34, with red dots above the price—this signal means: every rebound fizzled out below the SAR, bulls tried but couldn’t flip the structure. The previous low at 1071.95 is just below the current price, the most critical observation point ahead. If the price stabilizes and rebounds here, unrealized profits will be given back; if it breaks through directly, the bears’ logic will have completed its final phase. $NEAR weakened in sync to 4.743, down 2.38% intraday, 12-hour SAR at 5.335 still above price, the same script. $SAND’s path illustrates the issue even more. Short opened at 0.06311, 1000 coins, 50x leverage, mark price 0.05818, return 390.88%. Daily chart from 0.0 Chip stocks falling together easily misleads people into thinking that every business in the chip industry is deteriorating simultaneously.
But a detail worth highlighting from ASML's recently released Q3 report: revenue related to equipment services and on-site upgrades was about €3.289 billion, higher than in Q2. The company also explained that strong demand for production efficiency upgrades helped the quarterly gross margin reach 57.5%.
This revenue source is not exactly the same as simply waiting for customers to buy more new machines. Equipment already installed in wafer fabs still requires maintenance and upgrades; customers wanting to increase output from existing equipment also generate business.
I'm not saying ASML won't fall based on this, nor that service revenue is unaffected by cycles. Stock price also depends on how high the market's prior expectations were. But when everyone uses the term “AI bubble” to explain all semiconductor companies, these operational differences should not be erased.
Facing last week's sell-off, I would first break down company revenue into new equipment, existing services, or a certain type of end-demand before discussing valuation. Even with the same industry label, the dependence of cash flow on capacity expansion can vary greatly.
When stocks fall uniformly, people especially want a unified answer to avoid feeling uneasy. But making judgments shouldn't be about convenience. Service and upgrade revenue from existing equipment may not be as exciting but is more worth careful calculation than broadly shouting “chip stocks are all oversold.”
#Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive drops, can AI trading repair it? I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Today $ETH rose across the board along with the overall market, but the "potential challenges" should not be underestimated.
ETF weekly outflow reached 320 million, with a total outflow of 1.77 billion for both coins over two weeks. Justin Sun sold 80-90% of ETH at $3600-4000 to convert to US stocks, large holders sold 886 coins on Hyperliquid and liquidated 35 million short positions. On-chain staking withdrawals exceeded deposits, monthly supply increased by 86,000 coins, tokenized share dropped to 22%, increasing selling pressure and competition.
Short-term funds are retreating, and whales reducing positions show vulnerability, but the overall rise confirms underlying resilience.
Mid-term outlook remains bullish, core trend unchanged.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ This week, BTC dropped 2.63%, ETFs saw a net outflow of $324.1 million over 5 days, and the Fear & Greed Index fell from 63 to 53. What exactly happened in the market over the week? Let's start with the news. Here's the weekly data arranged: On the price side, BTC is currently at $81,696, +0.43% in 24 hours, -2.63% over the past week, with a 20-day range between 79,775.1 and 87,238.3 — the lower bound was briefly breached but then recovered. On the capital side, ETFs had a 5-day net outflow of $324.1 million and a 10-day net outflow of $723.3 million, but the last two trading days saw small net inflows (+$16.2 million, +$16.3 million). On the sentiment side, the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 63 to 53. On the macro side, the US Dollar Index was at 101.84 (slightly weaker over the week), gold at 4,181.1 (+0.26%), and the S&P 500 at 7,659.44 (down 1.09% on the previous trading day). Looking at capital flows, the main theme this week was "risk assets overall under pressure, but outflows are slowing": outflows were heaviest at the start of the week (reaching $263 million in a single day), turned positive midweek, and saw small net inflows over the weekend for two consecutive days. This "fast outflow then slowing" pattern corresponds to the price action of "falling first then stabilizing." Meanwhile, gold performed relatively resiliently this week, indicating that demand for safe havens remains. The implication for BTC: the most important information this week is not the decline itself, but that "the speed of capital outflows is slowing." The decline tells us what happened in the past; the speed of capital tells us what might happen next The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has begun advancing the REGCAM regulatory framework, aiming to establish a clearer set of federal rules for crypto asset trading. On October 5, the CFTC released a request for comments document, and on October 13, it was published in the Federal Register, with the deadline for submitting comments set for December 14. Don't rush to celebrate yet, as this is not the final effective regulation.
This initiative focuses on retail crypto commodity trading involving leverage or margin, as well as related trading markets. The regulatory direction includes requirements such as market manipulation prevention, customer protection, and proof of reserves. It does not mean that the U.S. has fully opened spot crypto trading, nor does it imply that all platforms will immediately obtain federal regulatory qualification.
What I find most noteworthy is that the U.S. regulatory approach is shifting from disputes over enforcement boundaries to attempting to establish more specific rules. For platforms willing to comply, a clear admission path may reduce operational uncertainty; for businesses relying on high leverage and opaque information, compliance costs may also increase.
What will truly impact the industry landscape is how the final rules are written, how platforms apply, and whether the CFTC can coordinate enforcement with the SEC. If the final requirements are more lenient than expected, the industry could benefit more broadly; if the compliance threshold is significantly raised, smaller platforms will face greater pressure.#Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading repair? After experiencing eight consecutive declines, chip stocks have seen a rebound, but it should be distinguished: this is more of an oversold correction and does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal for the AI sector.
The core reason for the previous sustained weakness is the short-term overvaluation combined with repeated inflation data, causing the market to worry that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer. Funds have withdrawn from the overvalued AI and chip sectors, with profit-taking concentrated, triggering continuous pullbacks.
The key point of this rebound is: first, look at the trading volume. If it is just a low-volume rebound, it is a short-covering with weak sustainability; only a volume increase represents funds flowing back.
The sector remains internally differentiated: upstream computing power chips have stronger certainty; AI application-side profit realization is weaker, limiting the rebound strength.
The macro level remains the biggest constraint. If inflation rebounds again and rate cut expectations are delayed, overvalued AI assets will continue to be under pressure.
Summary: In the short term, this is an oversold rebound and should not be directly regarded as the start of a new major upward trend. For a full recovery of the AI trading market, two major conditions need to resonate: a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and verification of corporate earnings reports. $BTC $ETH $SNDK After-hours notes: The market is bleeding, and the three brothers each have their own difficulties (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Today the market absorbed liquidity, dragging $STRK, $BCH, and $NEAR down, but their decline patterns are completely different.
$STRK: The worst, avoid for now. Plunged 11%, market cap only 478 million, but turnover/market cap ratio surged to 87%. This combination looks a bit scary: chips are turning over too fiercely, retail investors are weak in holding, it seems like someone is borrowing liquidity to dump. About 98.5% away from ATH, don’t rush to bottom-fish, stay away for now. (╥﹏╥)
$BCH: The most stable, can hold. Only slightly down 0.5% following the market, basically fully circulating, turnover/market cap ratio only 2.5%, chips relatively clean, not too crowded before. The problem is the narrative is old, mainly still depends on BTC’s mood. Can hold, but don’t expect it to suddenly tell a new story. (￣▽￣)~*
$NEAR: Wait for a pullback. Down 3%, giving back some of the previous hype gains. It’s more like a flexible position for the AI narrative, largest market cap, but unlimited inflation is a ticking time bomb; about 76.5% away from ATH. If it holds above 5, there’s hope; below 4.3, it’s meaningless.
In short: BCH can be held, NEAR wait for a pullback, avoid STRK. Just recording, not financial advice (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧23,000 Nvidia AI chips, buyers, money, orders—but no power.
The Daily Telegraph reported on October 18: Microsoft has withdrawn from leasing the UK cloud provider Nscale's Essex data center. Microsoft was the main tenant and originally planned to lease 23,000 Nvidia AI chips.
The critical issue is the power grid: electricity won't be connected until the 2030s; the Norway project is also delayed by half a year, with 30 megawatts running only 6.4 megawatts.
Nscale is preparing for an IPO (raising $3 billion, valued at $35 billion), but 85% of contracts depend on Microsoft and Anthropic. Revenue in the first half of the year was $140 million, with a net loss of $1.02 billion.
Peers have already suffered losses: CoreWeave dropped 25% last week.
My judgment: The market has overestimated "Microsoft scaling back AI investment"—Microsoft hasn't given a reason; it seems more like damage control for a powerless site. The $43.8 billion long-term contract remains; the market underestimates that contracts do not equal servers, and signing is separated from powering up by the power grid and construction.
Watch whether Nscale can find alternative power supply and whether the IPO will be discounted.
Failure condition: If Microsoft cuts capital expenditure guidance, then "it's not a demand issue" is wrong.
Which side are you on: scaling back investment or avoiding powerless sites?
$MSFT
#微软退租AI数据中心OKX 联手纽交所母公司把 63 只美股搬上链，9 家上市公司说：别碰我的股票。
OKXICE 是 OKX 与 ICE 的合资公司，10 月 4 日向 SEC 报备 63 只代币化股票，24/7 交易。
10 月 15 日通知：博通、Verizon、联合健康等 9 家正式反对，约占 14%。Applied Optoelectronics 讲明理由：怕影响股价和流动性，怕被误读为背书。
纳斯达克也拒绝自家股票参与：豁免机制没有实时最优报价，像个"影子市场"。
我觉得：市场高估了 9 家反对的杀伤力——只占 14%，且只拦 OKXICE 一家。低估了纳斯达克"自己不上"：交易所都不陪玩，顾虑真实存在。
我的判断：大趋势拦不住（54 家没吭声），但 11 月首批上线大概率缩水。
观察：11 月初窗口期满，有无大市值公司跟进反对。
失效：NVDA、苹果、微软也反对，或 OKXICE 推迟上线，"拦不住"就错了。
你更认可哪种：9 家反对只是小插曲；还是发行人不买账，上链美股比想象中难？
$ICE
#美股上链遇冷Well, for brothers and sisters who already have enough long-term positions, if you really want to add some leverage at this position, what should you do? My suggestion is to use options because the tolerance for error is high enough. For example, I took a screenshot of a just-opened sell put. It expires in about two days, and if it doesn't fall below 80000, you can earn about 100+ dollars in interest. Essentially, it's quite similar to dual currency; the only difference is that with options, there's effectively no middleman, so you get to keep all the profits yourself.
$BTC Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for two coins, slippage for both buying and selling increased significantly, with UNITREE showing the highest simulated slippage at the 100,000 scale.
$UNITREE simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.07%/0.07%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.45%/0.40%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in cost on both buy and sell sides indicates overall thin depth.
$SOXS simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.04%/0.04%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.25%/0.23%. Depth is discontinuous at smaller scales; the 100,000 level is the real execution constraint.In the futures market, a large position isn't necessarily intimidating; it's the thin margin that makes people uneasy. I have an old habit when looking at positions: before asking how much profit can be made, I first calculate how much room is left if the price moves against the position for a bit.
This time, I saw wallet Core Trader 56 (0xb663c9…e1da0) open a long $SP500 position with 49x leverage, holding 50 contracts, with a notional value of about $385,800. This is an opening signal, but the outcome is still unknown. I'm more concerned about how it plans to withstand volatility rather than rushing to guess the direction.
Roughly calculating by dividing the notional value by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $7,873; if the price moves 1% against the position, the unrealized loss is about $3,858, which is 49% of this estimated margin. This doesn't include fees, and the actual liquidation price can't be directly determined by simply taking the reciprocal of the leverage; it depends on the margin model and maintenance margin requirements. So my judgment is that the biggest test for this position is not the courage to be bullish, but the execution of stop-loss and margin management.
Unlike traditional stock index futures, this on-chain record represents a tokenized exposure and cannot be directly treated as an exchange stock index futures contract to apply the same rules; from a single wallet's position, it's also unclear whether there is any hedging behind it. I wouldn't hastily judge recklessness just based on 49x leverage, but with incomplete risk control information, I'd rather raise a question mark first. Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When encountering such a position, would you first verify the contract rules or check the liquidation and margin call mechanisms?#Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, focus shifts to profit recovery Tesla's Q3 deliveries surpassed expectations, shifting market focus to profit recovery. Deliveries look good, but previous price wars have dragged down gross margins. The earnings report will focus on automotive gross margin and free cash flow, with additional attention to Robotaxi and Optimus progress. Good deliveries do not equal good profits; gross margin is the core of this market trend. ⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Coca-Cola has risen 9.42% over 7 trading days.
For a defensive stock, this is not a normal pace.
Its usual annual volatility is about this magnitude.
On October 16, it closed at 93.90, just 0.21% below its six-month high.
On the same day, AVGO hit an intraday low of 328.58, a six-month low.
One is at the top, the other at the bottom.
I don't think this is a coincidence.
KO sells sugary drinks, with predictable cash flow, no need for anyone to believe a new story.
AVGO requires people to believe AI capital expenditures can keep rising for another three years.
When the market is willing to pay a premium for the former, it means it temporarily doesn't want to pay for the latter.
The market generally is willing to pay for "doubling next year," but not for "steady 3% growth every year." Now this preference has reversed.
On October 16, KO traded 23.1 million shares.
The 20-day average volume is 16.3 million shares, an increase of 1.42 times.
Rising close to a new high, volume is still expanding.
KO has risen 26% from 74.55 on April 22 to now.
The semiconductor ETF is still 19.65% below its six-month high.
Looking at these two numbers together, it's not just simple sector rotation.
It's money changing its way of living, from seeking elasticity to seeking certainty.
$KO
#CertaintyPremiumPump.fun is also getting into contracts now, expanding the "business scope" of casual players 😂
In the past couple of days, they added a perpetual contract entry, which is connected to Hyperliquid at the backend. Order matching, positions, and liquidation all happen on Hyperliquid.
This business model is pretty easy to understand: Pump keeps users on its own page, creating an additional fee scenario; Hyperliquid gains another traffic source.
But there's a detail: the official fee rate is clearly stated — placing contract orders through Pump will incur an extra fee of up to 0.1%, calculated on the nominal order amount, counting for opening, adding to, and closing positions. Hyperliquid's own trading and funding fees are charged separately.
In other words, for a 10,000 U order, Pump's layer alone can cost up to 10 U.
Platforms increasingly want to offer an all-in-one trading service. If the backend is all Hyperliquid, would you stay on Pump for convenience or go directly to the original site?#Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive days of decline, can AI trading recover?
After chip stocks fell for eight consecutive days, they finally saw a rebound. Many are asking whether the previously booming AI market can be restored.
To get to the point, this rebound is more of a short-term bounce after a heavy drop and does not mean the AI market is directly warming up. The previous continuous decline was mainly because people started worrying that AI-related companies were spending too much, profits couldn't keep up, and funds were withdrawing, leading the chip sector to be heavily sold off.
The current price increase is just a breather after the initial panic selling. To truly repair the AI market, it’s not enough to rely on stock price rebounds; two things need to be considered: first, whether chip orders can be stabilized and if the real demand for AI computing power continues to grow; second, whether market funds are willing to return and increase holdings in tech stocks. $SNDK
If subsequent orders fall short of expectations, this rebound is likely just temporary, followed by continued volatility. The AI theme will not return to the previous surge just because of a single-day rebound. There will be clear differentiation within the sector, and only those with solid performance support will hold up. $SKHYNIX
Ordinary investors should not rush to bottom-fish just because of the rebound. First observe whether funds can continue to flow back and whether performance can be delivered, then judge if the AI market is truly recovering. Do not mistake an oversold rebound for the start of a new major rally. $BTC
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see a return first, BTC or ETH? #Meta’s huge AI investment enters the return verification period 交易越学越亏？不是你变专业了，是身上挂的“锚”越来越多。MACD让走，KDJ让留，波浪说三浪起点，缠论说中枢震荡，最后连单都不敢下。问题不是学太多，是没学会归纳。学习不是往上堆，是往下删，体系越复杂越像杂货铺。
追龙头最典型：资金流入最多、K线最好、想象力够大，只要不马上崩就买。多数人偏要看指标，嫌龙头死叉超买，转头找个指标全漂亮的杂毛，结果可想而知。指标滞后，资金实时，龙头指标差还涨，才证明它是龙头，杂毛指标完美，是因为没人管，指标完美和标的质量经常反着来。
指标越多越容易自相矛盾，二十个里总能挑三个说别买，这不是风控，是给自己留逃生通道。高手只盯一两个决定性的东西：钱在不在、结构对不对、错了在哪走，其余全是噪音。
亏得多，不是学得多，是没归纳：锚多心乱，心乱手错。先止损的不是仓位，是你那套互相打架的体系。会做减法，才能做对加法。#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ Money is diverging: BTC is entering the full cycle, while ETH and XRP are moving out. BTC is the strongest: net inflows of 150 million in 8 hours, 130 million in 12 hours, and 110 million in 24 hours, absorbing capital throughout the cycle, supported by buying pressure. ETH is wavering at both ends: 10.3344 million inflow in 8 hours, 989,000 in 12 hours, but a net outflow of 54.776 million in 24 hours—short-term inflow, long-term outflow, with selling pressure concentrated here.
XRP is weaker: 1.1537 million inflow in 8 hours, turning to a net outflow of 7.7453 million in 12 hours, and 24.1913 million outflow in 24 hours, becoming increasingly weak. Combined with earlier liquidation data, non-BTC assets are under short-term pressure, and BTC spot inflows align perfectly with contract positions. Reminder: net inflow/outflow is only a snapshot of spot funds, changing in real time, does not represent a trend, do not use it as a directional indicator. Continuing the analysis of altcoins, tracking $UNI and $PEPE
I have talked about UNI's fundamentals many times before. When it was at a high level previously, I also warned everyone not to enter. Now that it has dropped, it has reached the range where we are prepared to enter. Let me update UNI's fundamentals again and share why I am optimistic about UNI in the short term.
The current pullback level is attractive. It is currently a bit over $7, with plenty of room from the historical high. The golden entry point below is around $6, and the token's value capture is improving. The biggest problem with UNI in the past was that the protocol made money, but token holders found it hard to benefit. Now, with the fee and burn mechanisms advancing, UNI is finally starting to link with protocol revenue. There are ecosystem and institutional catalysts. CME futures, traditional finance cooperation, and the development of Unichain are all worth watching. The key is whether they can bring real demand later. Also, the UNI project has long-term accumulation. Uniswap is a veteran DEX with solid product and ecosystem foundations, but competition is fierce, so risks should not be ignored just because of its historical status.
Of course, UNI could still drop to $6 or even lower. So I think entering in batches is fine; don't go all in at once. $BTC's "decent" 80,000 and $ETH's "fig leaf" 2500 — these two things are more interesting to look at separately than together right now.
$BTC: Holding 80,000 is not because the bulls are strong, but because the bears haven't gotten the cards they want yet.
The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, a full point higher than expected, and PPI also exceeded expectations. Half a year ago, such data would have pushed $BTC down to the 70,000 range at least. But this time it stubbornly held at 80,000. On Friday, the Fear & Greed Index even bounced back from 53 to 60, returning to "greed." Looks encouraging, right?
But when you break down the options structure, the underlying reason for this "resilience" becomes clear. There is an enormous open interest of contracts at the 80,000 strike price, with market makers holding positive Gamma. When the price drops near 80,000, they are forced to buy to hedge, effectively providing a mechanical cushion for the market. This is not a "crypto asset inflation-hedge narrative returning," but short-term stickiness created by the options market at a specific strike price. Once the positions start migrating to other strike prices after the October 16 expiration, this cushion will thin out.
More honest data lies in the capital flows. Since October, $BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding 600 million USD, and Ethereum ETFs are even worse, with nine consecutive trading days of net redemptions. CoinShares directly characterized this as a tug-of-war phase, not a trend reversal. The real support at 80,000 comes from options market makers' hedging flows, not spot buying. The difference is that the former will disappear, while the latter will remain.
$ETH: 2500 is an emotional rebound, not a fundamental turnaround.
$ETH's problem is much more naked than $BTC's. The 2500 level was reached in May 2025 and has returned now, but the floor beneath it has completely changed.
The "ultrasound money" story takes courage to bring up now. In the past 24 hours, $ETH supply increased by 2,955 coins, with only 13.59 coins burned, a burn rate of 0.46% of new supply. Since the start of the year, fee burning has only offset 2.07% of total issuance. Base, an L2, has absorbed net inflows on the order of 4.7 billion USD; users and fees have migrated to Layer 2, leaving the mainnet as a settlement skeleton, and the burn mechanism has lost its fuel. Circulating supply is genuinely expanding, with over 80,000 new $ETH entering the market monthly.
Therefore, $ETH's rebound at 2500 is essentially an emotional repair of "oversold, with a slight return of risk appetite," not an improvement in on-chain supply-demand structure. Some pin hopes on L2 fee inflows or mainnet activity revival, but that is future tense, not present tense.
To be blunt:
$BTC's 80,000 and $ETH's 2500 currently share the same underlying logic: macro liquidity has not loosened, but on-chain supply is quietly increasing. After CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October briefly surged from 20% to over 50%, though it later fell back due to Warsh not sounding hawkish. The expectation of "holding steady" is marginally weakening, not strengthening. The opportunity cost of zero-yield assets has not decreased, while $ETH's circulating supply is still increasing by nearly 3,000 coins daily.
Under this combination, price "holding" and "rebounding" can both happen, but sustainability is questionable. $BTC's 80,000 relies on options structure, $ETH's 2500 relies on residual sentiment. Neither is supported by spot buying or on-chain deflation.
The real signals are not in the candlesticks but in the next PCE, the next employment report, and where option positions move after the 80,000 strike price expiration. Until then, it's much safer to view "resilience" and "rebound" separately than to mix them and fool yourself.
$BTC $ETH #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #Circle稳定币公链Arc上线 #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ 一批活跃x402钱包，首次入金后30天内再次获得资金的比例，从70.6%升至89.3%。Chainalysis的10月14日报告，对比的是2025年第三季度与2026年第二季度首次入金的钱包，两组都已走完30天观察窗口。
x402是一种让软件按次付款的协议，例如为搜索或数据接口付一笔小额费用。对这类服务的开发者，再次入金比单看支付笔数，更接近判断工具有没有被反复使用。
但这里有个重要筛选：报告只统计至少在两个不同日期付款的钱包，排除了只试一次的那批。89.3%描述的是筛选后的活跃钱包，不能说成所有AI用户的续费率；钱包数量也不等于人数。
资金进入钱包，还不等于已经付给服务方。后续要一起看未筛选钱包的留存、实际消费金额与服务收入，才能判断重复使用有没有变成持续生意。
来源及原图：Chainalysis《North America: Inside the Growth of Agentic Commerce》，10/19复核。本文讨论支付协议，无特指代币。#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Today's Asian market showed an interesting structural divergence. Overall, Asian tech stocks continue to show signs of pressure. Clearly, facing the current macroeconomic pressure plus energy inflation, market confidence in tech stocks remains insufficient, so the valuation adjustment is not yet complete. This is most evident in the Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets.
On the other hand, although tech stocks are under pressure, the South Korean stock market has seen a significant rebound. Previously, the storage sector experienced a substantial valuation adjustment. Currently, the South Korean stock market looks more like a technical rebound after a short-term oversell, and since South Korean tech stocks rely more on a few leading companies, once these top companies rebound, the index rebound becomes more pronounced.
Meanwhile, the Chinese stock market showed a contrary trend. Chinese economic data was released, with retail and industrial output data rising, and Q3 GDP year-on-year growth at 4.5%. The data indicates that the Chinese economy tends toward stability, hedging against stock market panic and boosting the market.
Currently, the overall market narrative during Asian trading hours is—interest rate hikes delayed, macro pressure slightly eased, but AI valuations and capital expenditure issues still require further verification through earnings reports. #芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？ ETH outflows surpass BTC: The "stress test" signal of this adjustment is not in ETFs, but in stablecoins
ETH ETF outflows have surpassed BTC, mainly because Bitcoin redemption speed slowed first, rather than a sudden deterioration in Ethereum's fundamentals. This actually indicates that BTC's institutional selling pressure is marginally weakening, and the stabilization sequence is most likely BTC before ETH. But the real recovery signal is hidden on-chain—ETFs are "hiding," whales are "catching," and stablecoins are poised on exchanges. ETF outflows are superficial; when stablecoins turn to buying is the leading indicator of capital demand recovery. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #Institutional funds weaken, which will BTC and ETH see inflows first? 🚀 $BTC $ETH $SOL：牛市剧本会再次上演吗？
当前三大主流币的走势，让人联想到8月的反弹行情。BTC稳住关键区间，ETH等待修复，SOL则有望在市场回暖时展现更强弹性。
但宏观环境已出现变化！美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，PPI同比达到6.3%，通胀压力重新升温，年内加息预期也随之升高。与此同时，BTC现货ETF已连续两周净流出，累计约9.1亿美元，资金面仍需观察。
如果BTC放量突破阻力，空头回补或助推反弹；若买盘不足，也可能再次回落。
形态相似不代表行情必然复制，重点看突破确认、现货资金和SOL的相对强度。 不盲目追涨，注意控制风险。仅作市场讨论，不构成投资建议。On October 15, Tesla unveiled the second-generation Roadster at SpaceX's Texas test facility. However, by the close of last week's U.S. stock market, Tesla's shares had fallen more than 7% over five trading days, wiping out about $93 billion in market value.
Tesla delivered 486,000 vehicles in Q3, exceeding expectations by 5.6%. But the stock price has dropped over 25% this year. The more they sell, the less they earn. The Model 3 and Model Y together accounted for 98.3% of total deliveries. Musk is betting the profits from the auto business on the future of AI. Yet, the returns from AI have not yet materialized.
On October 2, Tesla released its Q3 delivery data. Deliveries reached 486,000, 5.6% higher than analysts' forecast of 461,000, with a 1.3% sequential increase. The numbers look good.
Tesla's Q2 financial report showed the automotive gross margin dropped to 16.9%, and excluding regulatory credits, only 16.3%, down 2.9 percentage points from Q1. Operating profit plunged 57% year-over-year, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. Revenue per vehicle delivered fell from about $45,300 in Q1 to about $42,700 in Q2. Model 3/Y accounted for 98.3% of deliveries. The higher-priced Model S and Model X have been discontinued. Tesla is supporting higher sales volume with cheaper cars.
It is foreseeable that $TSLA's Q3 earnings report will likely continue to decline.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点