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This week is a very critical week because it is a key period for U.S. stock earnings reports. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Intel will release their earnings, and these MAG7 companies will determine the future of AI. Currently, the decline in U.S. stocks is mainly due to rising oil prices. Meta has started to reduce capital investment in AI, and the market is worried that in this macro environment, major companies will cut back on AI capital expenditures. Therefore, the AI narrative may come to an end, and AI-related storage, optical modules, cloud providers, etc., will correspondingly decline, leading to a continued downturn in U.S. stocks. Another major event is the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. Although the current consensus is clearly not to take any action, will Powell speak more hawkishly? Because the data released this month has been very unfavorable, although the FOMC will announce no rate cuts this time, I believe the market will interpret it as bearish because the current consensus for December is a rate hike! During this period, the market is expected to lack strong confidence. Additionally, Trump keeps emphasizing either to take out Iran or negotiate, and it is unclear what Trump will actually decide. So, from October through the midterm elections, I personally feel the overall market sentiment will be very unfavorable. Unless these U.S. companies report outstanding earnings, all exceeding expectations, and increase AI capital investment instead of reducing it, the U.S. stock market might see a rebound. But at present, this seems unlikely because oil prices have been high for so long, and stock prices have recently fallen so much. Can U.S. companies continue to increase AI capital expenditures? It should be noted that these deciHow are the warriors who hoarded $8.09 million in altcoins in early October doing? 🥷👇
Holding on while taking hits: Added $2.7 million in the past ten days, bringing the total position to $10.79 million, currently with an unrealized loss of $1.904 million
▶︎ $ZRO : 2.55 million tokens, entry price $2.08, current unrealized loss $970,000
▶︎ $WLD : 6.3 million tokens, entry price $0.5189, current unrealized loss $568,000
▶︎ $BAT : 5.77 million tokens, entry price $0.1981, current unrealized loss $288,000
▶︎ $CHIP : 20 million tokens, entry price $0.04928, current unrealized loss $77,000
Wallet address 0x1291d51f3DF319B3Ee6b028b134B7b367BB72EbEThe Ethereum Foundation's associated wallet sold 2,785 ETH within one hour at an average price of $2,304, converting the proceeds into stablecoins. However, on the same day, about 170,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges on-chain, and the staking volume hit a record high. Sellers are selling, lockers are locking, and ETH is stuck around 2,300, making it the most divided asset of this super week.
$BTC is around 80,000. It briefly dropped to 79,398 over the weekend before recovering. ETF weekly net inflow is 301 million, but the cumulative outflow in October is still 314 million, with a loss of 773 million over Thursday and Friday last week.
$ETH is around 2,300. The Foundation's associated wallet made its second large transfer in two weeks, cumulatively transferring out over 7,000 ETH. But ETFs have had outflows for four consecutive weeks, staking accounts for over 35% of supply, ETFs available for sale are withdrawing, and locked ETH is increasing. The daily close at 2,300 is a touchstone.
$SOL is around 99.9. ETFs have had net outflows for the third consecutive week, with 17.3 million in a single week. But RWA tokenized funds had an inflow of 453.5 million in one week, accounting for 73% of the top ten blockchains' total inflows. On-chain capital is coming in, ETFs are withdrawing, and 100 dollars is a repeated tug of war.
In short: FOMC, PCE, GDP, and tech giant earnings reports are all packed into this week. None of the three coins have secured a clean capital line; they are all waiting for the same thing—the super week to give a direction.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC crashed below 80K after 10 PM last night, hitting a low of 79.2K, then pulled back below 81K this morning, currently at 80.9K, basically unchanged in 24 hours.
This time it wasn't a short squeeze that drove it up. Exchange open interest only dropped slightly, funding rates are slightly positive, it dropped and then came back with little change in open interest, more like spot buyers are absorbing. Watch if 79K can hold first; don't chase longs if it can't reclaim 81K.
There are two reasons for the drop. Brent crude oil surged to $117 intraday on the 23rd, the highest since April. The other is large holders withdrawing; Hayes said yesterday afternoon that ETH, ENA, and UNI were all fully cleared, transferring $28.81 million worth of coins across platforms in two days.
ETH is now at 2365, with a low of 2282 last night. A giant whale with a $270 million ETH long was only $30 away from liquidation, added $9.21 million margin at midnight, pushing the liquidation price down to 2181. If that area breaks again, it could trigger a chain liquidation. ETH is weaker than BTC, don't catch the falling knife.
Today's gainers: ZEC at 1210, up over 3% in a day. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF has seen inflows for four consecutive trading days totaling about $51.5 million, but funding rates are negative and the long-short ratio is below 1, indicating shorts are holding on, a short squeeze in the making. Watch for the mainnet activation on November 5.
The Federal Reserve meets on the 27th-28th, with results released early morning Beijing time on the 29th. Don't forget to watch.BTC smashed through 80K then pulled back to 80.9K, open interest only dropped a bit, funding rate slightly positive. This trend looks like spot is absorbing, not like shorts getting liquidated and then pushed up.
If 79K doesn't hold, there's another drop below.
Hayes cleared ETH, ENA, and UNI, transferring out $28.81 million in two days, ENA is still being dumped into Cumberland.
ETH at 2365, the liquidation price for $270 million long positions is suppressed to 2181, that area is a minefield, don't rush to catch the dip.Before cross-chain transfers, don't just look at the feesWhy is it that even when you correctly predict the market trend, you don't necessarily make a profit in the end?Gold fell below $4000, and the discussion forum quickly splits into two camps: one says the opportunity has arrived, the other says the trend is broken. I think, for RMB investors, there is an even more immediate question often overlooked: what exactly are you buying, and what kind of exchange rate risk are you bearing?
International gold prices are quoted in US dollars, so local investors’ actual returns must also consider the RMB to USD exchange rate changes. Suppose the dollar gold price drops while the RMB weakens; the exchange rate might offset part of the decline. If the RMB strengthens, the converted pressure could be even greater. This is just a conditional analysis and should not replace current exchange rate judgments.
Additionally, physical gold, gold funds, and other gold-related products may have premiums, fees, and trading session differences. Everyone talks about “gold,” but the performance in accounts may not be the same.
I understand the unease caused by breaking an integer threshold. Money earned with hard work can be partially lost in just a few days, making it hard to be completely emotionless.
But especially at times like this, you shouldn’t draw conclusions about your holdings based solely on a US dollar quote. First, verify your purchase cost, pricing currency, and product fees before discussing whether to adjust. If you haven’t even clearly seen why you’re losing or where the loss is, rushing to answer in the comment section usually only increases anxiety.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 The shadowless surgical light on the operating table lit up, anesthesia had been administered, but the numbers on the monitor started to deceive. Microsoft's earnings report is like a heart ready for open-chest surgery—you can't just focus on the curve of the stock price's pulse; that's merely the surface ECG artifact. The real danger lies beneath the myocardium in the coronary arteries stretched to the limit by AI demand.
Azure's 41% year-over-year perfusion pressure last quarter looks like abundant blood flow, but surgeons know well that a good ejection fraction doesn't mean the microcirculation is smooth. The real issue is whether Copilot can monetize—that's the myocardial contractile reserve, the key to whether this heart can maintain autonomous circulation under AI's high metabolic state. If Copilot's cash flow recovery can't keep up with the capital expenditure infusion rate, it's like forcing extra load on ischemic myocardium; the faster it runs early on, the more severe the ventricular fibrillation later.
I'm not focused on the 41% figure; I'm watching the acceleration. Acceleration equals extra positive inotropic drugs, which can temporarily improve blood pressure but also increase oxygen consumption. Market expectations for Azure are already at a high dose; if this report only shows maintenance without acceleration, it's like discovering insufficient graft flow during surgery—the operation won't collapse immediately, but the monitor will start alarming.
Now look at the $xAAPL linked line. Apple and Microsoft in the AI narrative are like parallel circulations; systemic and pulmonary circulation must match. Microsoft's AI investment is the right heart pumping blood out; Copilot monetization is the left heart receiving oxygenated blood. Any increase in resistance on either side causes congestion in the entire circuit. Against the current backdrop of widening AI credit spreads, the risk of this surgery is not bleeding but ischemia of distal organs due to insufficient perfusion—those relying on narrative-driven capital infusion will be the first to feel the cold at the extremities.
My judgment is very calm: this is a high-risk second open-chest surgery, with many adhesions and poor visibility. Azure's growth is the aortic cross-clamp; if it holds, it's stable; if not, it leaks. Copilot monetization is the flow meter of the extracorporeal circulation machine; the readings don't lie.
Anesthesia is in place, the incision is made; now is not the time to listen to the roadshow ECG, but to see if there is blood in the real heart chamber. #microsoftq1azureandaiPharaoh's Market Watch]
The October FOMC rate decision is about to be announced this week. Can Bitcoin ride this tailwind to break through 84,000?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t pop the champagne yet. This FOMC isn’t a "free pass"; it’s a "life-or-death test." The market is betting on a pause, but Powell’s tone might be harsher than a rate hike.
First, let’s see how the market is positioned. CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in October is as high as 85% to 87%.
So wherThey think they are changing a reward clause, but in fact, at move thirty-seven in the midgame, they secretly shifted a pawn that had long been pinned down.
The interest ban is an iron rule. The issuer cannot pay interest; this pawn can never reach the baseline, and the promotion path is completely blocked. But the "presumed objection to third-party rewards" was removed—note, this is not lifting the ban, but rather softening the originally fixed square, allowing platforms to make moves in a gray area. Grandmasters reading documents never focus on wording, only on timing: finalized on October 21, effective January 18, 2027, with a fourteen-month interval in between, which is a rare extended contemplation. A long contemplation means the opponent admits the position is not yet fully resolved, and it also means all funders have fourteen months to redeploy their pieces.
The banking association's opposition is a standard defensive move: fearing deposit outflows, equivalent to holes being drilled in Wang Yi's pawn wall. What they fear is not stablecoins, but funds being drawn away from the bank's main line. The finance department's stance is like the referee raising a hand to signal continuation—innovation and competition, translated into chess terms, means allowing an open position.
What I am really watching is "whether third-party rewards can attract new funds." In chess logic, an attack gained by sacrificing pieces does not equal real profit. Rewards are sacrifices: platforms use subsidies to exchange for deposits, gaining temporary spatial advantage, not material advantage. If subsidies cannot be converted into real retention and usage scenarios, then it is just a brilliant tactical combination without strategic gain, and the true nature will be revealed once the endgame arrives. Pawns gained by subsidies will still be exchanged off by the seventh rank.
Where is the compliance boundary? It lies in the three squares of "who pays, to whom, and under what name." The issuer not paying interest is a hard constraint; platforms paying rewards is a soft boundary. The real decisive move is whether regulators will redefine "rewards" as "interest," just like same-colored and opposite-colored squares—once the referee determines the color of the square, the entire diagonal instantly becomes invalid.
As for the linkage of US stock token underlyings, I interpret it as opposite-colored squares: the holding channel and the stablecoin yield channel are not on the same color square; short-term sentiment may pull out linkage, but that is just smoke on the board. When the smoke clears, what matters is whose pawn chain is stronger.
After fourteen months of long contemplation, the first move on which square will decide whether this game is open or closed—and I count pawns, not words. #geniusstablecoinrewardsMiddle East crude oil transportation has gradually resumed, yet oil prices remain firmly high, which many find contradictory. $CL
The core issue is that the risk premium has not disappeared: the Houthi militants have recently continued attacking Saudi energy facilities and oil pipelines. Although Saudi Arabia intercepted some missiles, the threat to facilities remains.
Although Trump stated that the US-Iran conflict might end quickly and Iran is willing to negotiate diplomatically, no substantive agreement has been reached so far. The geopolitical easing is only an expectation, not a realized outcome.
Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, but the insurance costs for oil tankers and the security costs caused by detours remain high. These costs are directly factored into oil prices.
Last Friday, Brent $BZ closed at $116.72 per barrel, WTI at $103.27 per barrel.
Currently, the market is a game of two expectations: on one side, the positive outlook of diplomatic easing; on the other, the risk of energy facilities being attacked and shipping routes being interrupted again at any time. The future direction of oil prices depends mainly on whether facility security and shipping costs continue to rise.
By the way, high oil prices will push up inflation expectations, coinciding with this week's FOMC, which is a key macro variable that the crypto market needs to watch closely. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ High returns, do they necessarily mean better investment opportunities?Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Impact on Bitcoin in October
1. Baseline Scenario — Maintain Interest Rates + Neutral to Hawkish Speech
No ruling out of a December rate hike, emphasizing that inflation remains above target, high rates need to be maintained longer, and no early commitment to rate cuts.
Market Reaction
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate slightly, the dollar index strengthens slightly. Bitcoin initially dips slightly in the short term, then consolidates.
Market characteristics: bearish factors realized, increased volatility, contract markets prone to short-term long and short liquidations.
Medium to long term: the market continues to trade on whether there will be a December rate hike, BTC ranges sideways, difficult to break into a strong bull market.
2. More Hawkish Than Expected — Pause Rate Hikes but Clearly Signal High Probability of December Hike
Chair's statement: inflation is sticky, December hike still necessary, removed statements about inflation easing.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. Bitcoin drops sharply, deep correction, many long contracts liquidated, consistent with the decline logic after the September minutes release.
-Core logic: market raises peak rate expectations, high rates maintained longer, leveraged funds in crypto markets under pressure, ETF funds prone to net outflows.
3. Slightly Dovish Surprise — Maintain Rates, Weaken Subsequent Hike Expectations
Statement: inflation has clearly cooled, no further hikes needed, data will be observed, no preset December hike.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, risk appetite recovers. Bitcoin rebounds quickly, ETF funds return, short-term bullish momentum activated Why is the token price low, but not necessarily cheap先说为什么这周可能是今年最关键的一周。 中期选举在9天后的11月3日，但这周已经是决定走向的窗口。目前预测显示民主党大概率横扫参众两院，特朗普将失去对很多政策的控制权。这意味着他只有两个选项——要么在选举前最后窗口期对伊朗发动最终打击，要么在选举前争取达成某种协议来扭转选情。无论走哪条路，油价和风险资产都将被注入剧烈的波动。 同时48小时后美联储利率决议会落地。宏观叠加地缘，这周几乎每天都是潜在的重大波动节点。 技术面上，比特币目前仍在测试下降楔形的下行趋势线，每次触碰都获得支撑。79,000这个位置我已经说了很多次——那里有约2,000万美元的大额现货买单布防，是当前区间下沿最核心的支撑区，如果价格到达那里我会开新的单子，至少我预期能反弹至81,000附近。 流动性热力图显示上下两端都在同步积累清算单，这种结构历史上几乎总是先扫一边再走另一边——要么先向上扫顶部流动性再下来，要么先向下扫底部流动性再起飞。方向还没有选择，但假突破来临的时候要保持清醒。 如果比特币真的向下到75,000以下，从成交量分布来看71,000到75,000是历史上最密集的成交量支撑带——那个位置我会非常激进地Strategy will release its Q3 earnings report after the US stock market closes this Thursday, with an estimated single-quarter digital asset book profit of about $20.9 billion. As of October 18, it holds 848,517 BTC with an average cost of $75,446 per coin.
However, that data is as of the end of September. At the beginning of October, it was still acquiring around 85,800 BTC, and now with $BTC back near 80,200, the cushion from its average cost is only about 6%. In the past two weeks, it has only bought two to three hundred coins per week, with most of the funds used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. MSTR's weekly issuance is only about $20 million, which has basically no impact on the market.
The earnings report numbers are likely to look good, but the market will be more concerned about how high the mNAV can hold and whether there is money to continue buying. The 80,000 level is currently supported by ETF and futures funds, not Saylor, so expecting the earnings report to trigger a rally is unrealistic.
In the short term, 79,400 is around today's low; if it breaks below, reduce positions first. Resistance is between 80,900 and 81,300; if it can't break above, don't chase longs. I am only opening a light position with a stop loss below 79,200, and will take partial profits if it rebounds near 81,000. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC 【10·26 Afternoon｜ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Types】
$ETH 2318, down <1%, liquidations peaked at 41.86 million; exchange net outflow of 169,000 tokens, the largest in nearly 4 months, ETF outflows in October exceed $1.2 billion, marking four consecutive weeks. Unable to hold 2330, "bottoming out" is just a narrative; Hoodi testnet launch ≠ capital inflow. Weak with no divergence, the weakest also comes last.
$SOL 100.97, down 0.34%, liquidations at 4.98 million lowest; spot net inflow of 5.84 million, Firedancer/Alpenglow support the narrative, but ETF outflows for three consecutive weeks, nearly 72 million in the past month. Holding 100.50–100.80, stable but slow, lacking marginal buyers.
$ZEC 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only gainer; liquidations at 5.07 million, market cap only about 1/3 of SOL, most aggressive leverage; positive fee rate = longs paying to hold positions. NU7, halving, privacy story concentrated, strongest yet most fragile.
Ranking: strength ZEC > SOL > ETH;
Support: SOL > ZEC > ETH;
Leverage fragility ZEC > ETH > SOL.
Watch for narrowing ETH ETF outflows, ZEC positive fee rate reversal.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 30x leverage, 795 BTC, unrealized loss close to $880,000, this giant whale added another 302.5 BTC margin during the downturn. Do you see courage, or a forced add-on after being trapped? When I scrolled to this set of on-chain data, I paused for a few seconds. The address with 30x BTC long positions on Hyperliquid continued to add margin during today's pullback, holding 795.02 BTC nominally worth about $63.65 million, with an unrealized loss of about $878,000. The same account also holds a ZEC long position, 4717 coins worth about $5.67 million, entry price 1195.7. The numbers themselves are not surprising; what’s surprising is the timing of the action—prices are falling, yet they choose to double down. I tend to interpret this kind of behavior as a signal of the trend phase rather than a directional signal. Large players in the initiation phase often test with light positions; they dare to increase positions only in the continuation phase. Adding margin during a pullback is more like a typical scene in the divergence phase: longs unwilling to admit defeat, pushing the liquidation line further back with real money. This does not equal bullishness; it only shows that someone treats risk exposure as proof of conviction. 30x leverage means that a price reversal of just over 3% will hit the maintenance margin threshold. An unrealized loss of $880,000 relative to a nominal $63.65 million is only about 1.4%, seemingly comfortable but actually with very thin buffer. For BTC, this kind of high-leverage long concentration is a double-edged sword. The bullish path is: if the price stabilizes at the current level and recovers the drop, these trapped chips will become the most steadfast holders, with short covering combined with leveraged longs extending the life, easily leading to a period of emotional recovery.This week the interest rate decision will be announced. I’m not guessing the rate, I only care about how the chips are placed. The market is pricing in a 76% chance of a rate hike in December. At times like this, the fuller the chips are placed, the fiercer the position unwinding after the meeting — in December 2018, everyone was betting on tightening before the meeting, and the S&P dropped 9.2% that month. When the tone eased, the first to move wasn’t the price, but the positions. The variable this time isn’t the rate itself, but oil prices and votes: oil prices have been pushed to a six-month high, the Middle East’s stance fluctuates, and the midterm elections are eight days away on November 3. The White House wants low rates and low oil prices, while the central bank wants to maintain inflation control face; these two priorities are ranked behind the votes. So I don’t bet on direction before the meeting; I buy the business before the meeting: the one with real cash flow settled on-chain, plus the two whose chips have just been cleaned out. The direction is biased bullish, and I control position size conventionally. After the decision lands and positions are fully unwound, the real market move will begin. #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecisionWillBeAnnounced The FOMC is very likely to hold steady this week, with CME giving a 90% probability of no change in October and a 68.9% chance of a rate hike in December. But honestly, whether they raise rates or not isn't the main point; the key is whether the money is still in the market. The wording is more worth watching than the decision itself.
$BTC is grinding back and forth between 79,500 and 80,000, with four consecutive daily declines and volume visibly shrinking. It can't break above 81,000, nor can it break below 79,000; bulls and bears are both stuck waiting for a word. $ETH is at 2,320, with over $1 billion net outflow from ETFs in October; this trend looks like a boat leaking from the bottom.
$ZEC is at 1,188, with funding rates still at +0.01%—the price is slowly falling, but the bulls keep paying to hold on. I personally hold a 500 short position, and seeing this funding rate, I just think the other side is pretty stubborn.
The FOMC won't provide answers. What I really want to see are two things: whether $BTC can break back above 81,000 with volume, and when those $ZEC bulls will stop paying. At times like this, watching the show is cheaper than betting; I choose to sit tight first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The biggest nuclear bomb of the week is coming. The Fed's FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is about to start, and the rate decision will be announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 29.
On the surface, the market generally expects the rate to remain unchanged this time. But I took a close look at the details in the chart, and this meeting has an extremely fatal feature: no new economic forecast will be released, not even a dot plot.
What does this mean? It means the market has lost an important reference point, and all the games are pinned on that decision statement and the subsequent press conference by the chair.
The comment at the bottom of the chart expresses exactly what I feel: "Pause without turning dovish, 92.8% priced in with a December rate hike blade hidden, the real signal is in the wording."
The market now has a 92.8% expectation of no rate hike, almost completely unprepared. This is extremely dangerous. As long as the statement is a bit hawkish, hinting that December might still require action, or maintaining high vigilance on inflation, that would be a definite "hawkish pause," and risk assets will immediately face a bloodbath. Conversely, if the tone softens, that would truly be good news.
Not to mention, on the evening of October 29, the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE data will be released immediately. PMI data has already shown growth slowing but prices rising faster, a typical sign of stagflation.
Looking at the current market, BTC has already dropped near the 80,000 mark, down slightly by 0.41%, with funds holding their breath waiting for the results.
$BTC $NEAR
Trader Mk4's NEAR long position, I've been watching it all day. A $25 million position with an unrealized profit of $12.15 million, nearly 50%. I admire the confidence to hold such a heavy long at this level, but I won't follow.
NEAR is now at 4.53, up less than 3% in 24h, it touched 4.7 at the high and then pulled back. The perpetual contract open interest is $54.5 million, and his position accounts for nearly half. The funding rate is still negative, shorts are paying longs, and with longs squeezed this hard while paying the counterparty, it's usually not a good sign.
Those with the largest unrealized profits are actually closest to liquidation. I don't have the guts, just watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC on Binance is moving, but it's not the same group moving it. On a 30-day rolling basis, retail deposits doubled from $5.5 billion in April to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; during the same period, whale deposits shrank from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion, a 36% drop.
What happened? Retail investors are moving money into exchanges, while whales are pulling back. Retail deposits are now 2.8 times the size of whale deposits.
Why is this worth noting? Depositing to exchanges doesn't mean immediate selling, but historically it often signals potential selling pressure. Retail investors are treating the sideways movement above 80,000 as a selling window, while whales show no signs of large-scale distribution.
Which observation is more supported? It favors the idea that "the source of selling pressure during the rebound is changing hands"—the short-term supply side control has temporarily shifted to retail investors, not whales dumping.
Next thing to watch: will the amount whales transfer into Binance reverse from $3.8 billion and start rising? If whales also start moving funds, the rebound will face not just one layer of selling pressure, but two. Do you think retail investors can hold this wave, or will whales make the first move? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC RWA Concept Coins: The buzz is theirs, but the interest goes to others 😅
This year, the RWA narrative has been insanely popular, but when you look under the hood of a few "leaders" — only one actually received interest, the rest are just hype groups (￣▽￣)*
$ONDO's business is indeed strong, with its own USD yield product scale reaching over two billion, even surpassing BlackRock. Unfortunately, the token is purely a governance token; none of the protocol fees go into holders' pockets. Technically, MA7/20/30 lines are all pressing down, RSI at 32 approaching oversold, 30-day position only 1.3%, down 26.3% this month, so weak it can't even find support. Even the leader can't withstand the market (╥﹏╥)
$PENDLE also has all three lines pressing down, RSI 36.8 is weak but not yet oversold, 30-day position 6.7%, down 24.1% this month. The decline is slowing but hasn't stopped, hovering near monthly lows to wear you down (´･_･`)
$CFG protocol has fees, but doesn't give them to holders either. 30-day protocol fees are just under 30 million, supported by institutional cooperation with Circle Arc and New York Life to sustain the narrative. All three lines are pressing down and diverging, RSI 24.3 deeply oversold, 30-day position 0.2% hugging the floor, down 39% this month, the worst among the three, accelerating to bottom out (；´д｀)
Summary: The RWA story sounds great, but capturing token value is the hard truth. Don't just look at scale, see whose pockets the money goes into 🤔💸To pour some cold water first, I am bearish, but this news about the "ancient giant whale recharge" is not enough for me to conclude that a dump is coming. According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the Ethereum ICO period address 0x6C6…d2941 has recently deposited a total of 1,500 $ETH to exchanges, worth about 3.46 million USD; this address originally bought 100,000 ETH at a cost of 0.31 USD each. My judgment is: this is a potential selling pressure signal, but the extremely high return rate in the headline easily leads the market to mistake sentiment for evidence.
I see two issues. First, depositing does not equal selling; on-chain transfers can confirm asset location changes but cannot directly confirm transactions. Reading "if sold" as "already cashed out" is a logical leap. Second, a low cost only indicates the holder has a large profit margin, it does not mean this batch of chips is enough to change the market; lacking concurrent buy-side support and transaction data, just looking at 3.46 million USD makes it hard to judge the actual impact. What I am more wary of is that everyone is being led by the word "ancient."
Of course, the bearish view could also be correct. If there is continuous depositing later, along with price weakening and insufficient support, I will raise my judgment of selling pressure; these are my observation conditions, not facts that have already happened. Conversely, if the fund support is stable, I will not use the whale's low cost as a reason to remain bearish. I will first focus on actual support and not write a dump script in advance based on a single deposit.BTC is currently reported at 80,300, with a long-short ratio of 2.2, yet long liquidations account for 68% — more people doesn't mean the direction is right. The 80,000 meat grinder, 188 million long positions liquidated below 78,850, and short positions fueling above 81,000. Whales are accumulating, ETFs are running. $BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC fell below 80,000, with $234 million in long liquidations across the network, but some remain defiant. The top 4 BTC long addresses on Hyperliquid added 302.5 coins after the drop today, bringing their total position to 795.02 coins, valued at $63.65 million, with 30x leverage, an entry price of $81,168, and an unrealized loss of $878,000. The price is around 79,800, and they are still adding margin.
What happened? The market is deleveraging, but this address is increasing leverage. Nearly 196,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, yet this address chooses to bet against the liquidation wave.
Why is this noteworthy? 30x leverage means very little room for error. Entry price at 81,168, current price 79,800, not far from forced liquidation. The additional $2.15 million margin is a real-money bet that below 80,000 is the bottom.
Which observation is more supported? It’s more likely "this is not smart money bottom-fishing, but a high-leverage coward’s gamble." Funding rates are low, longs have just been cleaned out, and market sentiment does not support a violent reversal. This position looks more like a bet on a short-term rebound rather than a trend call.
Next thing to watch: will this address add margin a third time? If it stops adding funds, the liquidation chain reaction below 80,000 may not be over. Do you think this 30x whale can hold out for a rebound or become the next liquidation screenshot? Discuss in the comments. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ "A Day in Heaven, a Day in Hell: The Storage Adjustment Isn't Over, But the Sell-off and Fundamentals Are on Two Different Time Scales"
Let's first look at the rhythm of the past three days: On Monday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.61%, ending an eight-day losing streak; on Tuesday, US storage stocks collectively fell again, the KOSPI dropped 3.73% the same day, and SK Hynix fell 4.23%; today, the Korean stock market rebounded in early trading. One day one direction, this is not a reversal, it's a full divergence.
The reason for the sell-off lies in the long term. The trigger for this round was the news about ChangXin Memory's 4F2 architecture; in mid-October, Hynix fell over 10% in a single day, and the market fears that Chinese supply will sooner or later crush storage prices. But Goldman Sachs said the impact is overestimated; ChangXin is still some distance from true mass production.
Fundamentals are in the near term, and the heat is a completely different picture. Korean customs data: chip exports in the first 20 days of October rose 222.5% year-on-year, reaching $27.5 billion, a new high for the period. KeyBanc expects DRAM prices to rise 15% to 20% and NAND about 20% in Q4. HP and Dell have extended supply agreements to 2031, and Google is negotiating until 2035. Customers are using long-term contracts to secure goods, not cutting orders.
So the verdict is not on the market but in the earnings reports: Hynix on October 28, Samsung on the 29th with full earnings, and SanDisk's earnings, three events in a row. There is also a small side note: Micron's Taiwan factory may strike on Thursday.
Conclusion: It's impossible to conclude now that the adjustment is over. When data and stock prices diverge, chasing rallies or sell-offs is the most costly; wait for the guidance on the 28th before making a decision.🚨 That whale holding 93,000 #ETH long positions, is the ammo running out?
Between 02:50–02:58 early this morning, he topped up two Hyperliquid accounts with 5.67 million USDC, pushing the liquidation price down to 2,181 / 2,177.
I checked the on-chain records: this is already the 4th round of margin top-ups since October. On 10/07, 10/09, 10/18, and 10/25, each round happened after a sharp drop in ETH.
All four rounds of funds came from the same wallet 0x6b9e…0a24, totaling 28.82 million Bitcoin falls below $80,000, stablecoin market liquidity declines
10xResearch reports that Bitcoin's price has fallen below $80,000, but price volatility is only part of the story. Tether's USDT market cap is $182.6 billion, down 0.5% from a week ago, with a trading volume of $58.8 billion, 5% below the average. Circle's USDC market cap dropped 1.2% to $71.5 billion, with trading volume down to $11.7 billion, 19% below the average. The stablecoin minting indicator is at the 2nd percentile, signaling a very negative outlook. Stablecoin supply decreased by $1.9 billion last week, with a net redemption total of $4.8 billion over the past 30 days, indicating market liquidity is flowing out rather than in.This message looks to me like a company changing its business model. SEC filings reveal that the former CEO and CFO of Nasdaq-listed House of Doge (HODO) resigned on October 22, with Curtis Hopkins from McQueen Labs stepping in as interim CEO and CFO; the company has terminated the official Dogecoin license and plans to acquire McQueen Labs' token platform.
My judgment is: this is not an immediate positive impact that can be directly recorded in the books, but rather an increase in operational uncertainty. The impact on the company's business is more worth pondering than the effect on $DOGE sentiment.
Doing business is about input and output; licensing and platforms are two different trades. The former depends on how much revenue the brand can bring, the latter depends on whether the product has customers and can sustain revenue. A planned acquisition does not equal completion, nor does it mean cash flow is already running smoothly.
Looking at risk reserves, with the original CEO and CFO leaving simultaneously and the successor coming from the acquisition target, I would be more concerned about the transaction terms, decision-making checks and balances, and integration costs. This does not mean the deal has problems, but if a large amount of resources still need to be invested later, how long the money on the books can last is the key point in my view.
I run a small company, and when I hear “transformation,” I first check my wallet. How would business friends view this kind of risk: would you first check the acquisition price and platform revenue, or the management arrangements?Brothers, the latest report from Galaxy is quite interesting. About 20.1 million bitcoins have been mined so far, of which 11.1 million, accounting for 55% of the total supply, cannot be traced to who holds them.
Many people's first reaction is that retail investors hold their private keys themselves, not on exchanges. But the report also says that not all of these can be considered active retail holdings. A large portion of these are lost private keys, deceased holders, and permanently inaccessible dead coins; some are large holders and OTC merchants whose positions have not been identified. The remaining 45% are the holdings we can clearly see, such as those held by major exchanges, ETF funds, and the U.S. government, with Satoshi Nakamoto still being the single largest holder.
This data actually indicates two things. First, despite the current ETF institutions buying enthusiastically, the retail self-custody base of Bitcoin remains large and is not completely controlled by institutions. Second, the truly liquid supply that can be dumped on the market at any time is far less than people imagine.
However, don't be blindly bullish. Among these anonymous coins, if an old whale suddenly moves coins out, it can easily bring selling pressure to the market. Recently, Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways, so the movements of this existing supply are more worth long-term attention than short-term ETF fund flows. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Q3 profits will be very good, but not earned by HBM4. HBM4 is just a sentiment and forward pricing anchor. The basic profit foundation this quarter is HBM3E long-term contracts + server DRAM price increases. HBM4 has limited short-term impact on profit improvement; the biggest risk is Samsung catching up + TSMC Base Die eating into some of the premium.I see this message as following the trend of on-chain asset expansion, which will strengthen the sentiment in the tokenized stock sector, but it cannot yet be considered confirmation of a price trend. Token Terminal data shows that tokenized stock deposits in DeFi have surpassed $300 million, up from $262 million last month and about $11.8 million a year ago.
I have three principles for analyzing trends: look for continuation, not just a single point — the monthly scale continues to grow, which concerns me more than the headline "about 25 times in a year"; look for coverage, not just total volume — deposits are distributed across 20 issuers and 10 chains, showing some coverage but not enough to conclude balanced distribution; look for capital retention, not substituting hype for demand — deposit growth is a positive signal but cannot be directly equated with active usage, nor can it be used to infer that related tokens will rise.
Trends are the best friend; I will continue to monitor whether deposits can be retained and usage can keep pace, and I am not in a hurry to take a piece of good news as a reason to enter the market. $MORPHO
Lending on Morpho isn't one big pooled market. It's built around isolated markets, with curators setting up vaults and deciding which collateral gets exposure. That's a cleaner design for risk, but it quietly shifts a lot of trust onto those curators. How closely does the average depositor check who is steering their vault?$BTC is being continuously suppressed by spot selling.
No signs of buyers stepping in yet.$AR
Arweave's pitch is simple on paper: pay once, store data permanently. The whole model leans on an endowment that has to keep covering storage costs for decades, which works while hardware keeps getting cheaper. It gets harder to defend if that trend stalls. Permanence sounds great, but who is actually paying for it today?$NEO
NEO is one of the oldest smart contract platforms still running, and that cuts both ways. Longevity brings a mature codebase and a dual-token model where holding NEO generates GAS. It also means newer chains have spent years winning the developers and users it once courted. Surviving isn't the same as staying relevant.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Brothers, SK Hynix is about to release its Q3 earnings report. Many are watching to see if HBM4 can boost profits again. Here's the key point directly: HBM4 is basically not the main driver of performance in Q3; its real push will come later. $SKHYNIX
Simply put, the new HBM4 product only had small batch deliveries in Q3, with large-scale shipments expected after Q4 and full volume ramp-up next year. So the impressive profits this quarter mainly rely on HBM3E plus ordinary DRAM price increases. The market estimates Q3 operating profit could reach 77 trillion KRW, a historical high.
So what should everyone focus on in this earnings report? The key is not how much was earned in Q3, but the management's statements. We need to see if HBM4 yields are stable, the scale of long-term orders with NVIDIA, and next year's capacity plans.
There are also risks here; rumors say NVIDIA's next-gen chip is delayed for tuning, which might cause HBM4 shipments to fall short of expectations. The storage sector has already dropped recently due to concerns about whether AI demand can sustain.
In summary: Q3 results will likely be very good, but not because of HBM4. HBM4 is the main driver of profit growth next year. The guidance in this earnings report is the key to whether storage stocks can rebound. Although the long-term logic for AI storage remains, many positives are already priced in short-term, so don't blindly chase highs. $ETH $SOL Bitcoin has been hovering around $80,000 these past two days, dipping as low as $79,500, with about $100 million liquidated. The bulls got pretty cleaned out, then the price bounced back above $80,000 and held. Institutional average cost is roughly around here; some see this as an accumulation zone, others think it's just a pullback in a downtrend. The divergence itself is more interesting than the price.
Arthur Hayes cleared about $22 to $28 million worth of altcoins over the weekend, including ETH, ENA, and UNI. The reason is straightforward: the macro and geopolitical outlook looks grim, so he’s holding cash waiting for signals. His track record is selling and then buying back higher within a week, so don’t treat him as a prophet—just consider him a data point.
The real variable this week is the Federal Reserve. The rate decision is on October 28, with PCE data in between, plus $11 billion in options expiring. These three events clustered together will likely ignite volatility. Iran occasionally makes headlines, keeping risk appetite suppressed.
Another development that’s easy to overlook: Zcash is quietly attracting funds. Grayscale’s ZCSH saw a net inflow of $41.1 million last week, the strongest week since mid-September, reversing three consecutive weeks of outflows.
My approach is simple: keep position sizes small, hold plenty of cash, and avoid guessing direction before macro events. There’s still structural buying support below $80,000, but how long it holds depends on what the Fed writes in the next chapter. Crypto market ETH smart money position core data analysis: Longs' losses intensify, shorts are about to break even!!!
ETH current price 2322, slightly down 0.61%, current funding rate 0.0046%.
Smart money total positions 1.74B USDT, total traders 2361, nominal long-short ratio 23.70%.
Longs (885 traders)
Current position 333.53M USDT, average entry price 2874.44, unrealized floating loss 79.2097M USDT, profit ratio only 33.33%, most longs are in loss, cost far above current price.
Shorts (1476 traders)
Current position 1.40B USDT, average entry price 2306.97, unrealized floating loss 9.5897M USDT, profit ratio 61.58%. Shorts hold a larger position size, current price slightly above their average entry price, also experiencing slight floating loss.
Current price 2322 is stuck in the middle range between the cost bases of longs and shorts, longs' cost is high, shorts' cost is low, the market is tugged back and forth, a double kill pattern for longs and shorts.
Market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ARB
Arbitrum’s biggest long-term challenge is turning Ethereum scaling into sustainable economic activity. Lower transaction costs can attract users, but lasting demand depends on what those users actually do: trade, borrow, lend, or interact with applications regularly. Ecosystem growth matters most when it creates repeat usage rather than temporary incentive-driven traffic. The distinction between activity and durable demand will shape ARB’s fundamental outlook.$RENDER
Decentralized GPU infrastructure has a compelling use case: connecting computing demand with distributed hardware resources. Render’s long-term relevance depends on whether creators and other compute-intensive users continue finding value in its network. Yet demand for rendering services should not automatically be confused with demand for the token itself. Understanding how network usage translates into token utility is essential when evaluating this AI infrastructure narrative.Cutting water with a knife only makes it flow more, a thousand meters rushing nonstop
The FOMC is very likely not to raise rates this week, but the issue in the crypto world has never been "whether to raise or not," but "whether the money is still there." I believe the real focus of this meeting is the wording, not the decision itself.
CME data shows a 90% probability of no change in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 68.9%. It's like the teacher not calling roll today doesn't mean there won't be a final exam.
$BTC is repeatedly testing between $79,500 and $80,000, with four consecutive daily declines and trading volume shrinking like my weekend wallet. It can't break above 81,000 or fall below 79,000; both bulls and bears are waiting for a single sentence.
$ETH is even worse at $2,320, with over $1 billion net outflow from ETFs in October. Ethereum is like a leaking ship; others are bailing water out, but it keeps sinking.
I find watching $ZEC's market most interesting—$1,188, funding rate still positive at +0.01%, price slowly declining, bulls still paying to hold on. My $500 short position is still open; watching these bulls feels like watching myself a few months ago.
I think this FOMC won't provide answers; the real signals are: can BTC break back above 81,000 with volume, and when will $ZEC bulls stop paying funding fees. Until then, watching the show is cheaper than betting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
@你的爱播Misa @毓鑫YuXin @中确幸（Bch是世界上最有价值的币） @bilibili交易姬 Everyone is bullish, so why isn't the market rising?
The most dangerous market pattern: overheated sentiment, price stagnation
Recently, many have noticed an abnormal phenomenon:
The entire network is unanimously bullish, leveraged longs are piled up, borrowing to go long is continuously soaring,
but BTC remains stuck at the 80,000 level without breaking through or gaining momentum.
This is a typical divergence between sentiment and the market, and it is the stage where shakeouts most easily Energy turmoil rises again! Crypto faces increased pressure!
European natural gas prices have surged to a four-year high, breaking through €97/MWh. This signal should not be underestimated.
Behind this are two overlapping pressures:
✅ On one hand, winter is approaching, and heating demand in Europe is set to rise. Forecasts predict colder temperatures next week, prompting the market to stock up in advance;
✅ On the other hand, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, raising concerns about disruptions to the energy supply chain, with expectations for short-term easing weakening.
Global gas supply is already tight, and buyers in Europe and Asia are competing for resources, further driving up prices.
Many may ask, what does this have to do with the crypto world?
The core issue is inflation.
Natural gas is a fundamental energy source, and its sustained price increase will raise inflationary pressures in Europe and globally.
Once inflation rebounds, it will tightly constrain the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Expectations for rate cuts will be delayed further, or even strengthen the outlook for maintaining high interest rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets like BTC.
Although current prices are still far from the peak of the 2022 energy crisis, this round of increases is already sounding an alarm for the market.
Energy price hikes → inflation rebound → central banks hesitant to ease. Once this transmission chain is established, risk assets will struggle to experience a comfortable bull market.
In the short term, two variables need close monitoring:
Whether the Middle East situation deteriorates further, and the actual winter temperatures in Europe. The market is too lazy even to set up positions. BTC is hovering around 79,800, rubbing back and forth, while ETH broke below 2,350 and can't even muster a decent rebound. As of 3:56 PM, ETH is at 2,315, falling more aggressively than BTC. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD green bars are expanding—rebound? That's just handing you an entry ticket for $ETH.
The most ironic thing is that the big client data shows the market-wide long-short ratio soaring from 1.55 a week ago to 2.2. Logically, the bulls should be strong—but in 24 hours, 670 million was liquidated, with bulls losing 457 million, accounting for 68%. To translate: the long crowd is packed into the carriage, but the train is heading toward a cliff. On the other side, whale short positions hold 4.28 billion, accounting for 53.4%. OKX data is even clearer—big players' long-short ratio is 0.83 bearish, small players 0.5187 bullish. Big players are sharpening their knives, retail investors are bottom fishing $BTC.
News also adds to the pressure: US-Iran conflict risk flares up again, oil price inflation expectations are weighing down risk assets, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is this week, ETFs have had net outflows of 773 million USD over two consecutive days, institutions have long been waiting at the door for a smoke break.
I'm set. BTC at 80,500 and ETH at 2,380 are the starting lines for the bears. The first targets are 79,200/2,350; if broken, look to 78,000/2,300. Set your stop losses well, manage your positions, and leave the rest to the trend. Retail investors are still waiting for the “bull comeback,” but I’ll short first—relentlessly forward, no turning back.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🌤️ 10.26 Afternoon Setup
$SNDK
The order was already set before the open: SNDK long position, 3x isolated margin, holding 0.638 units, average entry price 1230.7.
The logic is in three points: First, 1229-1230 is the support zone where the 1-hour and 15-minute Bollinger lower bands overlap, and the price held here; second, the 15-minute KDJ has reached an extremely low level (J is only 1.3), indicating short-term oversold conditions, so a rebound is due; third, the daily 200-day moving average around 1236 is just overhead, current price 1232.5 is close to it, after a month of decline, expect a technical rebound first.
Take profit set at 1249, stop loss at 1223. The 1249-1251 range is the resistance zone where the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger middle bands overlap, so exit once the rebound reaches this area, no greed; 1223 is below the support zone, breaking it means the support is invalid, accept the loss and exit, no holding on.
To be clear: this is a short-term rebound trade, the 4-hour trend is still down, so this counter-trend position should not be treated as a trend trade. After the US market opens tonight, decide the direction within half an hour; if the direction is wrong, cut losses. Exit before Thursday's post-market earnings report, no gambling on earnings.
Current price 1232.5, floating profit +1.14U. The order is set, see you at the open. (Must use small leverage to test)#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Although Middle East crude oil transportation is gradually recovering, the core reason oil prices remain high is that the risk premium has not disappeared.
My judgment basis is:
1. The flow through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded to about 70%-80% of pre-war levels, and Middle East exports are close to normal levels, but they rely on U.S. military escort and detours through pipelines, making passage fragile and reversible at any time.
2. The Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi energy facilities and east-west oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia intercepts some missiles, but actual damage is yet to be verified. Concerns over facility security directly push up the premium.
3. In terms of cost structure changes, VLCC freight and war insurance have soared to historic highs, accounting for a significant proportion of cargo value. Even if flow recovers, the landed cost remains high.
4. On the diplomatic front, Trump said the conflict may end, and Iran is willing to communicate, but without an agreement, with midterm elections and military risks coexisting, the market is unwilling to prematurely price in uncertainty.
Oil price trend analysis:
Last Friday Brent $BZ closed at $116.72, and although it has retreated somewhat this week, it remains high.
In the short term, if there are no major attacks and diplomatic easing signals are clear, the risk premium may ease and prices will be under pressure;
If facilities suffer substantial damage again or shipping is interrupted, prices are likely to surge again.
The medium-term trend depends on whether the risk truly cools down, rather than simply the recovery of transport volume.