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#France's 10-year government bond yield surpasses US Treasuries for the first time since 2013 Intraday, the French 10Y government bond yield surged, exceeding the US 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2013. This is a very significant market signal, indicating that the market is assigning a higher risk premium to French sovereign debt, making France the risk focus in the Eurozone bond market.
✅Why has the French bond yield overtaken?
1. Fundamental fiscal weaknesses (core)
France's public debt is about 119% of GDP, with a deficit rate long significantly above the EU's 3% limit. The high welfare system makes it difficult to cut spending, and there is huge resistance to increasing revenue. The market does not believe the government can meet its fiscal consolidation targets. Rating agencies have already downgraded or issued negative outlooks, and investors demand higher interest to compensate for the risk. Large-scale bond issuance is planned for 2027, with many old debts maturing requiring refinancing, creating huge supply pressure.
2. Political uncertainty at its peak
Parliament is divided, street protests are frequent, fiscal budget progress is blocked, and with elections approaching, it is difficult to implement strong austerity policies. The market fears policy deadlock and stalled fiscal reforms.
3. Capital flight, foreign investors withdrawing
Long-term overseas funds from Japan and others have been continuously reducing holdings of French bonds. As their own domestic yields rise, the attractiveness of holding French bonds declines, and selling pressure further pushes yields up.
4. Resonance of both market trends causing the crossover
On one side, French bonds are being continuously sold off, pushing yields higher; on the other side, temporary safe-haven funds flow into US Treasuries, causing US yields to slightly fall. This push and pull completes this historic crossover $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report. The market consensus expects revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, a significant increase from Q2's 60.5 trillion, likely setting a new record for the sixth consecutive quarter.
However, the stock price has recently weakened, and the issue is not with profits but what lies ahead:
• Samsung's HBM yield is catching up, narrowing the market share gap
• Nvidia's Rubin has been delayed, so the ramp-up of HBM4 volume may be slower than expected
I am more focused on three things in the earnings call: HBM4 shipment proportion, long-term contract pricing, and Q4 guidance. As long as HBM4 doesn't fall behind, this profit scale is hard to ignore.
I currently hold a long position in SK Hynix and will not add before the earnings report; I will decide based on the guidance. What are your thoughts?今天链上出现了两个影子，方向是反的。 影子一：交易所单日流出169,770枚ETH，四个月新高。Santiment把它和6月5日对比——当时流出223,800枚之后，价格强劲反弹。可售供应在减少，影子在离开交易所。 影子二：一个2015年以$0.311拿到10万枚ETH的远古地址，11年来第一次移动。5,000枚转出，1,500枚已经进了CEX。十一年不动的筹码开始动了，影子在往交易所走。 还有第三个，不在链上，在ETF的申赎表里。10月1日到22日，ETH现货ETF累计净流出超过10亿美元。16个交易日，14天在流出。这不是衍生品噪音，是现货层面的影子在系统性离场。 三个影子，两个指向供给，一个指向需求。方向没有形成合力。 24小时爆仓$4,400万，74%是多单。杠杆多头在被清洗，但资金费率显示多头并不拥挤——这意味着清洗可能还没结束，但继续追空的性价比也在下降。 我的多单成本在$2,300，夹在清算线的中间，先看价格先碰哪一边，碰2,444，再看放量，中间这一段待定。单纯靠直觉来说，我觉得这波的幅度不止2444，可能会破3000。 你们觉得，那1,500枚远古ETH进CEX，是这【$20 Billion Sold in Two Weeks, Is This What AI Fears Most Finally Happening?】
Global tech stocks saw a net sell-off of about $20 billion over two weeks, reaching an extreme level; the Nasdaq $QQQ 100 dropped 5.5% last week, marking its largest weekly decline since April 2025. The market is starting to pour cold water on the AI boom: with so much money poured in, when will it actually pay off?
The pressure isn't just from valuations. JPMorgan estimates that the five major US cloud service providers will have capital expenditures of $697 billion in 2026, with AI infrastructure increasingly reliant on external financing. Rising financing costs and slow project repayments mean that if GPU operators face cash flow issues, the pressure could cascade up the financing chain.
However, selling $20 billion doesn't mean AI demand has collapsed, nor does it imply that all tech companies are unworthy of investment. The upcoming earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will be the real test: capital expenditures can continue to rise, but revenue and cash flow must keep pace. If performance can't support the investment, the sell-off may not be over; if profits materialize and credit spreads stabilize, this round of adjustment will look more like position clearing rather than an AI bubble burst.October 28 is not an earnings report day; it is a mandatory step: SK Hynix pushes the queen of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory to the center line, forcing a complete reevaluation of the entire memory cycle's valuation. True strategists first look at the pawn chain, not the pile of pieces—the Q3 figures are just the score sheet, while the mass production rhythm of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory forms the skeleton of the game.
The expansion of AI server demand is like the opponent pushing the central pawn right in front of us. If Hynix can simultaneously control shipments, pricing, and profitability, that is true piece coordination: shipments represent activity, pricing is the central square, and profit margin is the material advantage. Only increasing volume without protecting price is like sacrificing pawns without opening lines; only protecting price without increasing volume is like stacking wings but leaving the rear flank exposed. The market watches whether quarterly profits can break records again; I watch what those records are exchanged for—is it the promotion of pawns along the path, or trading future two moves for one square now.
The mass production advancement of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory resembles a breakthrough on the rear wing. If the breakthrough succeeds, the minor pieces remain active; if it fails, weak pawns are exposed, and inventory and capital expenditures will counterattack from both wings. Customer certification is the path pawn, yield rate is the bishop’s diagonal, and contract price is the rook’s open line; if any link is blocked, profit records are just a beautiful illusion. Even strong AI demand cannot replace piece coordination; strong demand only grants initiative, it cannot finish the endgame for you.
In my view, position management is not just adding or subtracting numbers, but piece deployment: first see if the center can be held, then decide whether to press the rook on the seventh rank. Rushing before the earnings report is like an unprotected general—loud but opening the king’s gate. True positioning is calculating the opponent’s responses before the news lands: if volume increases and price holds, the endgame has many pawns; if profits rely on price hikes, the endgame mostly has mismatched bishops, with harmony hidden inside. The climb of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory takes two or three moves to reveal the true situation; a single quarter’s record is just a capture, not a checkmate.
Looking at that US stock token, it is not on the same color square as the memory cycle: one feeds on risk appetite, the other on capacity and price. But mismatched bishops in the endgame will also be forced to exchange pieces. Record performance may promote sentiment; if shipments increase but pricing fails, the linked token will be checkmated first, then the valuation will follow to patch the leak. The worst in the midgame is shouting attack while leaving the king in the center.
My judgment is simple: this is not a performance reading test, it is forcing the position. Whoever mistakes the mass production rhythm for emotional noise is handing the rear wing to the opponent’s bishop in the midgame. #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings ETH bulls are getting worn down: Is the 81.58 million U unrealized loss just the beginning?
In this ETH downturn, the hardest hit are not the newcomers but the old bulls who bought above 2890 and have been holding on stubbornly until now. The unrealized loss on the books is about 81.58 million U, equivalent to a quarter of the current position already wiped out. This is not an ordinary pullback; it's a real bleeding.
More importantly, these positions haven't been massively liquidated yet, which means either the leverage is low and they're enduring the pain, or they're continuously adding margin to stay alive. But every time the price dips further, the hole to fill gets bigger; once someone can't add margin, forced liquidation will trigger passive sell-offs. These stubborn long positions on the market are essentially a queue waiting to trigger a chain reaction.
On the other hand, short positions mostly have costs near the current price, so their pressure is much lighter and they can act proactively. The bulls have already lost a quarter of their principal; if the price gets pushed down further, stop-loss and liquidation orders could easily cause a stampede. Buying longs now is like carrying the burden of trapped holders; shorting along the trend actually fits the current game better.
In short: ETH bulls' wounds are still widening, so don't rush to be a hero. Until the market shows signs of a bottom, going with the trend and shorting is more comfortable than trying to catch the bottom.
This is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH Just after finishing lunch around 1 PM, you open the market screen and feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down, seemingly stabilizing, and your hands itch to jump in and buy the dip? Don’t rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars for $BTC earlier on the chart: there’s indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in the 1-hour and 2-hour windows. Retail investors think the opportunity has arrived and rush in hard, but if you shift your view to the right and check the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow is as high as 7.682 billion, and spot has also seen an outflow of 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all designed to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a frantic retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! In the short term, just over 80 million flowed in within 1 hour, but over 30 days, contract funds have fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflows reached 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big players to unload.
Finally, $SOL is somewhat more resistant to decline, but even its 30-day contracts have seen nearly 2 billion outflow. The overall trend remains outflow.
Summary: Don’t be fooled by the green bars in just a few minutes; this is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebounds. Without real money propping it up, what will drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch the show.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ A building whose foundation piles haven't even been completed yet has already fully booked entire floors for 2028. What Seattle is presenting is not a performance forecast but a construction progress schedule marked with concrete grades.
Let's start with the foundation. Computing capacity for 2026 is sold out, 2027 is basically fully booked, and more than half of 2028 is locked in—there's only one explanation in real estate development: this is not a demand forecast, it's a presale of capacity. Pre-selling units three years ahead means the blueprints have been worn out from constant reference. Anyone who has built supertall buildings knows that the presale rate never equals the delivery rate; it only determines whether you can secure the next development loan.
The real bearing point lies in the core tube. Computing power is the foundation and vertical transportation, while AI inference demand is the floor load stacked layer by layer above. The current problem is that the climbing formwork speed of the core tube can't keep up with the floor slab pouring speed. Sold out in 2026 means the existing load-bearing walls have reached the design load limit and new structures must be erected immediately; and from rebar tying, formwork, pouring, curing to inspection, there is an uncompressible physical cycle. Capital expenditure is concrete—once poured, it solidifies in place and cannot be undone.
Thus, the free cash flow issue shifts from a financial item to a structural mechanics problem. Concrete curing periods prevent formwork removal. Every penny spent on expanding capacity is locked in the formwork and cannot be released. Those staring at the blueprints only calculate floor area ratio, not curing costs; they count the increasing number of floors, but no one asks—has the wind resistance level been rechecked?
What I really care about is prestressing. To extend the span to 2028, the steel strands have been tensioned to the design limit. Short-term stiffness has indeed increased, and the facade looks polished; but long-term creep and microcracks only gradually appear after the structure is topped out. If even a 2% settlement occurs on the demand side, the entire building will settle unevenly. The biggest fear for supertall buildings has never been wind, but the foundation moving first.
As for the linked asset, it is the curtain wall hanging on the main facade. Curtain walls always feel wind loads before the main structure; when the structure sways, the curtain wall reacts first. But the noise from the curtain wall never indicates whether the structure is good or bad, only that the wind has arrived.
The 2028 floors have already been sold, but the seismic fortification intensity on those blueprints still hasn't been signed off. #amazonq3awsoutlookThe "False Boom" of L1: Behind High TPS, Who Is Gaming Incentives to Fake Orders?
A common market misconception: as long as a public chain has high TPS, active transactions, and many ecosystem projects, its native token will definitely rise. But beneath the data facade, many high-frequency interactions are actually "witch attacks" and "token incentives" creating fake demand.
$NEAR
Cross-chain intended trading volume appears huge, but its monthly inflation issuance (about $13 million) is still more than 6 times the buyback scale. Moreover, the repurchased tokens enter "permanent capital instruments" without being burned, causing net supply to continuously expand. Many of the so-called high-frequency interactions are driven by ecosystem incentives, while real net retained income remains relatively small.
$ARB
TVL has long topped the charts, but the large amount of on-chain fee income flows entirely into the DAO treasury, and the token currently serves purely as a governance symbol. Once airdrops and ecosystem incentives stop, real retail interaction frequency often experiences a cliff-like drop, with massive unlocks hanging like a sword overhead.
$RAY
High-frequency trading on the Solana chain is not entirely fake orders; genuine Meme enthusiasm and liquidity demand bring abundant fees. Raydium uses 12% of daily fees to buy real assets on the secondary market (though retained in the treasury and not burned), at least providing substantial buy-side support.
Conclusion:
TPS without real external demand support is just server idling. When looking at public chains and trading hubs, don’t be fooled by surface data and interaction counts. Currently, Bitcoin $BTC is fluctuating narrowly between $79,400 and $80,500, while Ethereum $ETH is cautiously moving between $2,295 and $2,335. On the surface, the market seems to have entered a calm period, but behind the data, a battle of bullish and bearish forces is unfolding: some traders are starting to guard against downside risks, while others still firmly believe a rebound is imminent. It's like an ongoing chess match, with each side waiting for the other to make a mistake, and a key breakout or breakdown could change the entire market situation. 1. Whales are taking action, but the market has not formed a unified direction. Data shows that 40 new wallets withdrew 9,458 BTC, worth about $771 million. This behavior could indicate asset accumulation or merely transfers between wallets. Therefore, based on this data alone, it cannot be confirmed that all these bitcoins come from new buying activity, nor can it be directly concluded that institutions or whales are fully bullish. Meanwhile, a large trader is facing considerable pressure, with a long position size of about $400 million and an ETH liquidation price at $2,181. Last night, ETH dropped to a low of $2,282, still $101 above that liquidation price. This means if the price continues to fall, this position may face greater risk, increasing the importance of margin calls or actively reducing the position. Another noteworthy data point is the large trader long-to-short ratio at 0.77. According to the common interpretation of this indicatorFOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH tug-of-war repeats, three events this week will concentrate pricing on the short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not "whether to hike or not," but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed truly anchors on, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battleground
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil originalSouth Korean media revealed today that the company plans to distribute a special dividend of about 160 trillion KRW, funded by proceeds from selling Kioxia shares, expected to be officially announced alongside the Q3 earnings report on Wednesday. The company responded that the plan is still under discussion and no final decision has been made. $SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH But the market has already started to get excited. Coupled with the postponement of Solidigm's IPO and the continued booming demand for AI storage, the expectations this round are indeed very strong. Here are some key data points: - Q3 operating profit is expected by the market to be about 77 trillion KRW, nearly 5 times year-on-year growth, likely setting a new historical high - The 160 trillion KRW special dividend is more than 15 times the regular annual dividend - Current P/E ratio is only about 3 times, and foreign ownership has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis - The stock price has halved from the June peak, valuation has indeed hit rock bottom So, Cathie Wood is clearly bullish with a target of 1050. The logic is straightforward: explosive performance, shareholder returns exceeding expectations, and ridiculously cheap valuation, a triple positive combination. However, caution is needed; the real test will be the earnings report on Wednesday. If the special dividend amount falls short of expectations, or if the HBM4 shipment guidance is conservative, short-term sentiment may be negatively affected. But in the medium to long term, the AI storage theme remains unchanged, and Hynix's position as the leader in HBM is unshaken. Tonight's live broadcast will focus on this topic; the storage sector has recently fallen sharply, and rebound momentum is accumulating. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #SKHynixQ3EarningsComingUpCanHBM4BoostProfitability?"A 2.34% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $PUMP — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
PUMP 50x leverage, 0.004162→0.004262, +120.13%. Conversely: if it falls back just 2.34%, that 120% gain disappears entirely.
What does 2.34% mean on PUMP? A normal wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news, trend reversal, or even intentional shorting — a purely technical pullback is enough to wipe it out.
50x leverage magnifies 2.4% into 120%, and likewise magnifies 2.34% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits, but also the shortest survival time.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below isn’t far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I’ve made, only on how far it is from the cost line. 2.34% is too close.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 $BTC current price $79,730, WAIT, I am not adding to my position. I hold long positions with an average price of $83,030.
The position volume rose 4.0% in 24 hours, price dropped 1.13% in 24 hours, indicating shorts are adding positions, short-term risk leans downward.
A) If it breaks below the ascending trendline at $79,608 (still pushing up), the next level is $79,378. Within 48 hours, $79,740–$79,980 saw $5.72 million liquidated, 69% of which were longs, with thin buy orders below. Holding above $80,768 invalidates this.
B) The $80,768 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 6 times, and broken through once. Holding above it targets $81,009; breaking below $79,608 invalidates this.
If it rebounds near the cost price of $83,030, I will first reduce half of my long positions and move the stop loss to the cost price.
Do you think the $79,608 line can hold? #OKXTraderVoices SanDisk Earnings Test: 76% Betting on Beat, Beware of a Market Crash After Good News Is Fully Priced In!
SanDisk ($SNDK) will report after the U.S. market close on October 29. According to prediction markets, 76% of funds are betting its earnings will beat expectations.
On the surface, the logic is sound: AI data center demand is expanding, NAND flash prices are rising, and the company’s own revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion. But I have to pour cold water on this — a 76% betting ratio means expectations are maxed out; this hand is almost an open card. At this point, the market isn’t really looking at how much was sold last quarter, but whether next quarter’s guidance can continue to blow out.
Haven’t we had enough bloody lessons from recent tech earnings seasons? Previously, Western Digital beat expectations and had good guidance, yet its stock price still fell. If SanDisk’s guidance even slightly hints at peak profit margins or a slowdown in NAND price increases, that 76% of funds will quickly turn into the main sellers, and a stampede could happen at any time.
Semiconductors are the global tech stock barometer; this earnings report will directly impact our broader market. If the report beats expectations and the market can withstand selling pressure and move up, tech stock sentiment will stabilize, and BTC can breathe easier. But if earnings explode yet the stock price is slammed, it means Wall Street’s valuation logic for AI hardware has flipped, and BTC will definitely be drained of liquidity with extremely heavy selling pressure above.
Don’t just focus on beating expectations; beware of the chain reaction of good news being fully priced in! $SNDK $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Before the Super Week, three capital statements
$ETH: The foundation-related wallet sold 2,785 coins within 1 hour at $2,304 each, exchanging for USDS; over 7,000 coins transferred out cumulatively in two weeks. On the same day, about 170,000 ETH left exchanges, staking volume rose above 43.7 million coins, accounting for over 35% of supply. ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1 billion in October.
$BTC: Around $80,000, weekend low at 79,398. ETF weekly net inflow was $301 million, but October still had a net outflow of $314 million, with a combined loss of $773 million last Thursday and Friday. On-chain, 40 new wallets withdrew 9,458 BTC from market makers, about $770 million; whale holdings rose to 3.03 million coins, with the 30-day accumulation speed the fastest since February this year.
$SOL: Around $99.9, repeatedly contesting $100. On October 21, the Alpenglow upgrade went live, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds; spot ETFs had net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with about $60 million redeemed in October. RWA tokenized funds had a weekly inflow of $453.5 million, accounting for 73% of the top ten blockchains' total inflows.
On the macro side, September core PCE expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP expected at 3.1%, 90% probability FOMC holds steady, 68.9% probability of rate hike in December. All three prices are stuck at critical levels, with chips changing holders, addresses, and narratives.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Snapshot: October 24-26, 2026. Metrics from different aggregators vary, so I indicate the period and source next to the figures. Uniswap ($UNI) is one of the oldest and most prominent decentralized trading protocols. It is built on an automated market maker (AMM): instead of an order book, users trade against liquidity pools. The main conflict of the project: the product is in demand, but the connection between this success and the UNI token remains indirect. The token is needed for governance, but not for regular trading $XLM
Weaker than XRP, why can't the payment sector have a unified valuation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XLM's 24-hour price change was -2.78%, ranging from 0.16681 to 0.17248 USDT.
XRP fell 1.46% on the same basis, with XLM experiencing a larger pullback, indicating that similar use cases cannot eliminate differences in supply and liquidity. Industry enthusiasm does not guarantee that each generation of tokens will simultaneously gain demand.
If the relative gap continues to widen, the assumption of a catch-up rally should be lowered; if actual usage increases and the relative price stops falling, then the assessment of recovery should be raised again. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Because there are still uncertainties #CerebrasQ3AIChipOutlook
Q2 BEAT: Core $210M vs $191M +103% YoY, GAAP $180M +70%. But stock -14% after — GAAP loss $450M vs $350M est, OpEx $503M vs $89M YoY (SBC $377M). Q1 also beat $193M vs $174M.
Why YES:
WSE-3 = 58x NVDA B200 wafer = fastest inference. Cloud +281% to $126M. OpenAI $20B 750MW deal + Altman "close partner". Core guide $880-890M FY (was $855M). Backlog $25.4B RPO, cash $8.6B. EPS loss est improved -$0.32→-$
Call: 75% REV BEAT but selloff risk — needs core >$220M + GM >40% The Federal Reserve will decide the day after tomorrow whether to raise interest rates.
But the inflation data they are going to look at this time,
one-third of it was not collected.
Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was supposed to collect prices for a batch of goods and services. They were supposed to collect 100 items but only got 66.
More than 30% missing.
What about the missing part? They estimate it.
They use prices of similar goods,
use prices from nearby regions to fill in.
So that year-over-year 3.7% inflation figure,
some of it is estimated.
Is it accurate?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics itself doesn’t dare to guarantee,
only said:
There is no evidence of overestimation, nor evidence of underestimation.
But the Fed can’t wait, and won’t wait.
On the 28th, they will announce as scheduled.
The market is already betting: the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 80%.
Bitcoin is now at $80,185, right above 80,000.
Why is this line critical?
Two things happen to converge here:
The average cost of ETF buyers is 81,300.
The 50-day moving average is also here.
A bunch of people’s costs are all piled up at this level.
Last time CPI was released, Bitcoin dropped from 83,800 to below 82,000 within a few hours.
My attitude:
To put it simply:
If inflation is high, you know how to hedge.
If the numbers are inaccurate, you don’t even know where to hedge.
80,000, see you on the 28th. Expected Value Hunter｜Today's Expected Value October 26, 2026 80,000, tested again. On Monday during the Asian session, BTC dipped to a low of 79,330, approaching the lowest level since mid-September. Then it bounced back again to 80,320, just like it has done every time in the past nine days. If you opened the market today and saw the 80,000 figure tested countless times, you probably wouldn't feel much anymore. It's not numbness, it's fatigue. Dip down, pull back, dip down, pull back. Every time it seems like a direction will be chosen, but every time it isn't. But today, one thing is different from the past few days: the two groups driving this market are moving in opposite directions. First, let's look at the data on Binance. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a flow report today, separating retail investors and whales. Over the past 30 days, the amount of BTC transferred by retail investors to Binance rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting about a six-month high. Transferring coins to exchanges is usually not a buy signal. Darkfost's judgment is straightforward: retail investors are treating this rebound as an "exit window," closing positions at prices they find more acceptable to relieve previously accumulated psychological pressure. Meanwhile, whale deposits to Binance dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%, continuing a nearly two-month downward trend. Darkfost's conclusion is: no signs yet ofFinally seeing hope again! The market turnaround might really be coming! 🌈
The current market is becoming increasingly clear: the linkage between crude oil prices, global stock markets, and cryptocurrencies is strengthening.
🛢️ Oil prices falling gives risk assets a chance to breathe.
On October 26, international oil prices retreated from recent highs, and the market is also watching whether US-Iran diplomatic talks can make progress. However, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, oil prices are still high, and the subsequent trend depends on how the situation develops. Meanwhile, global stock markets have slightly rebounded, and market risk appetite has improved.
For the crypto market, if oil prices can continue to decline, easing inflationary pressure and reducing concerns about further interest rate hikes, then risk assets like BTC, ETH have a chance to perform better.
Of course, a drop in oil prices does not mean a bull market will start immediately; next, we need to watch capital flows, trading volume, and whether key price levels cooperate.
ꉂ(ˊᗜˋ*)
₿ $BTC Bitcoin
BTC has experienced a round of correction recently, and the market is currently searching for a new direction. The fall in oil prices does help ease macro pressure, but for Bitcoin to truly strengthen, continuous capital inflow and confirmation of price structure are still needed. £22 billion on-chain? Actually only £50 million
On October 26, UK asset management giant Aviva launched tokenized shares of a pound liquidity fund on XRPL.
The parent fund is about £22 billion, but the actual tokenized initial investment is only £50 million — a 44 times difference.
Aviva uses a "digital twin" structure: only share rights are recorded on-chain, while the underlying holdings, custody, risk control, and regulation all remain in the original system, with assets still at BNY.
It's like our factory didn't change equipment or processes, just added an electronic certificate channel to existing goods: production capacity and yield remain unchanged, what changes is whether the goods can be accepted by the new system.
1. The first step of tokenization is money market funds, not stocks or real estate. Shares are already cash equivalents, and after tokenization they can be settled and used as collateral.
2. "On-chain" is overused. What changes are the issuance, recording, and transfer steps, not moving the asset itself onto the chain.
For friends in finance, how do you judge if a tokenization project is "truly implemented" or just "announced"? What indicators do you look at?On October 26, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) took a landmark step: publicly encouraging community banks to consider applying to become payment stablecoin issuers, pointing to the licensing framework of the GENIUS Act. For an insured national bank, the path is to apply through a subsidiary rather than issuing directly from the bank itself. With less than three months remaining until the January 18, 2027 deadline of "no issuance without a license." But the dramatic scene is this: regulators are encouraging banks to enter the market, yet banks are worried about being hollowed out by stablecoins. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan previously warned that under certain regulatory scenarios, up to $6 trillion, about 30% to 35% of U.S. commercial bank deposits, could flow into stablecoins. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) provided a more specific estimate: if payment stablecoins become widely adopted, the future loan volume of community banks could decrease by at least $850 billion. The contradictory focus is on "returns." The OCC's final rule retains the core ban on issuers directly paying interest but removes the draft clause that "presumed third-party reward arrangements illegal," replacing it with case-by-case judgments. The banking system's concern is that even if issuers do not directly pay interest, platform and third-party reward programs can still draw deposits away from community banks. The American Bankers Association has quickly criticized the rule. This is not a "positive landing" but the beginning of a deposit battle. The OCC's encouraging stance essentially acknowledges that stablecoins have become a part of the U.S."Trading volume 49.2 billion, market cap 2.68 trillion"
Today's overall market numbers are a bit strange.
Total market cap is 2.68 trillion USD, 24-hour spot trading volume is 49.27 billion USD. Calculating turnover rate: 1.84%. Bitcoin trading volume is 16.13 billion, accounting for one-third.
This ratio is relatively low. The normal spot turnover rate in the crypto market is between 3% and 5%, so 1.84% indicates almost no one was trading today.
What’s even stranger is the price reaction. With such low trading volume, the market cap still dropped just over 4%. Among the top 30, 4 rose and 25 fell; SUI fell 3.46%, XMR fell 3.2%, ADA fell 2.91%; only ENA rose 6.43%, the strongest in the market.
On one hand, extremely low trading volume; on the other, a significant drop — these two together have only one explanation: marginal funds are withdrawing, not circulating existing holdings.
The consequences of these two situations are completely different. Circulating holdings means some are selling and some are buying; prices fall but chips don’t disappear. Marginal withdrawal means both buy and sell orders thin out, so prices can be moved with very little money. Today's 4% drop may have used only one-third of the usual funds.
The most dangerous aspect of this structure can be seen in the options market on October 30. That day, 140,844 BTC expired, nominally about 10 billion USD, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. When market depth thins, market makers’ hedging positions are amplified because the same hedge volume causes greater price impact in a thin order book.
And these three days are fully packed: October 28 interest rate decision (market pricing for rate hike probability dropped from 27% to below 15%), October 29 Q3 GDP and PCE, October 30 options settlement.
In other words: the market now is like a spring compressed to the limit, not because of bullish or bearish sentiment, but because no one wants to bet before the events unfold. Low turnover means collective wait-and-see; waiting means reactions will be more concentrated and intense when events land.
Discussion: Does low turnover mean "no one wants to trade" or "no one dares to trade"?
I think it’s the latter, and this difference determines next week’s direction. The former is indifference, prices will slowly drift down; the latter is tension, prices will jump as soon as events happen. Today’s funding rate is still +0.0054%/8h, longs are still paying — someone is waiting, and paying to wait.
Poll: Among the three major events in three days, which do you think is most likely to trigger volatility — A. October 28 interest rate decision; B. October 29 PCE; C. October 30 settlement; D. None, continue grinding.
I choose B. The rate decision is basically priced in, settlement is technical, only PCE is truly unknown.
Not investment advice, risk on yourself. #MarketAnalysis $BTC#RocketLabQ3Neutron
Why YES on Rev:
13/19 beats (68%). Electron 17 contracts Q3, >20 launches yr. SpaceX Q3 +161% $14.6B lifted space. Space Systems mix.
Why NO on Neutron:
First launch slip 2026→2027 — tank redesign, carbon fiber defect. Stock -28% 1M, -33% 6M, $53 off $151 high. Iridium $5.9B deal
Valuation: $31B mcap, P/E N/A, beta 3.19, EPS -$0.37. Avg PT $122 = 130% upside. Cantor Buy.
Call: 75% REV BEAT, 50% EPS — needs >$265M + backlog >$2.5B + Neutron pad Q4 timeline to reclaim $65.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
Musk announced that SpaceX completed $40 billion off-balance-sheet debt financing to buy GPUs, but the pricing has not yet been agreed upon. More awkwardly, xAI's similar operation last year was deemed "invalid" by accountants, and about $13 billion of debt was ultimately brought back on the balance sheet.
AI revenue is indeed exploding: Q3 Super Intelligence segment revenue reached $7.56 billion, a year-over-year increase of 830%, profitable for the first time, already surpassing Starlink. But the faster the computing power expands, the more it relies on this off-balance-sheet structure to maintain its rating.
The problem is that the market is precisely watching whether this money can truly be "off the books." The revenue explosion and financing fragility are currently two sides of the same coin.Core Risk Warnings
1. A volatility compression to 6% has historically ended in explosive moves: a 9-day consolidation box, with the 30-day price spread shrinking from 13% to 6%. Once the direction is chosen, the magnitude could far exceed the $2,100 implied by the current ATR. Avoid heavy directional bets at the end of the compression.
2. 82,700 is the "invalid line" for the medium-term bearish pattern: until the daily close breaks above this area, the objective signal is bearish and range-bound, not a bull market trend. All short-term moving averages are above the price, which is a technical fact that cannot be ignored.
3. ETF "IBIT unipolar inflow" is fragile support: 566 million this week. If IBIT inflows slow or reverse, net inflows across the market will quickly turn negative. The recent 774 million outflow over the past two days has already demonstrated this fragility.
4. The FOMC (10/27–28) is the biggest variable within 48 hours: a pause in October is priced in, but the real risk lies in any hawkish hints from Waller regarding December. If December rate hike expectations strengthen, the lower boundary of the $79,200 box will face a severe test.
5. The "chaotic combination" of $117 oil prices + falling US Treasury yields: the market is pricing in an AI recession rather than oil-driven inflation. Bitcoin has no clear beneficiary path in this combination—oil price gains do not transmit, while weakness in tech stocks drags it down.
6. Divergence between taker sell volume at 0.67 and 67% net long accounts: positions are bullish but actions are selling. If price is resisted near $82,300, passive long covering may turn into selling pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Order placing is exhausting! $247 rolled to $936 in 15 minutes, this bot really knows how to wait 😂
There is a bot specifically trading Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets. Since last December, it has run about 169,700 markets and accumulated roughly $354,200 in purchases. It doesn't guess price direction; it places buy orders at every cent price point, waiting for people to panic sell recklessly.
Today there was an even crazier window. Someone smashed about $10,000 on a buy order, and the price instantly dropped from around 65 cents to 5 cents. The bot's buy orders were all filled, costing about $247, and settled in 15 minutes for about $936, nearly 3.78 times the cost. Out of 313 days, 213 were profitable, and in the last 30 days it quietly gained about $6,950.
Retail traders rush during those 15 minutes, but the bot waits for your slip-ups. The fastest in this game is often the one with programmed orders.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $MSTR MicroStrategy has paused buying coins! Instead, it spent $205 million to repurchase preferred shares. Is the market panicking?
Brothers, MicroStrategy's recent moves are worth paying attention to. Logically, MicroStrategy should continue increasing its $BTC holdings, but this time the capital allocation has changed: it spent $205 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent buying BTC.
The money spent hasn't decreased, but the focus has shifted!
Don't rush to say BTC is too expensive to buy; the key might be the cost of capital. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%, and continuous financing means bearing significant dividend expenses. Repurchasing preferred shares may help control future capital costs and cash flow pressure.
This indicates that MicroStrategy's capital arrangement deserves a fresh look, but we can't conclude that Saylor has completely changed the strategy just because of buying less BTC for a week.
Looking at market performance, BTC has fallen below around $80,000, the FOMC meeting is approaching, risk-off sentiment is rising, and MSTR's stock price is also under pressure.
The real question is: if BTC continues to weaken and MicroStrategy slows its buying pace, can MSTR's valuation premium hold?
Next, focus on three signals: whether BTC can stabilize, whether MicroStrategy will continue buying coins, and the financing and repurchase arrangements of STRC.
Brothers, do you think this is MicroStrategy proactively adjusting its capital structure, or is market pressure starting to show? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$xMETA Here's a drama from last night. The earnings report came out, revenue blew past expectations, over 40 billion USD, profits steady like an old workhorse. But AI is a bottomless pit that burns money, so they immediately decided to raise 35 billion USD.
Investors calculated: more shares issued, dilution, pre-market sell-off, stock dropped over 4%. Almost losing their minds.
Then a divine reversal happened. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom—three chip giants—stepped up and said they would put 5 billion USD into buying its stock. Pre-market, the drop of over 4% was pulled up to a 1.12% gain.
My takeaway: the money shortage is fake, but the ranking is real. Among this huge financing, the three hardware giants willing to pay 5 billion to buy in is basically telling you—on the AI chain, no one is helping for free. Its stock price is tied to the crypto nerve; when one side moves, the stocks and tokens on the other side also get unsettled. $xMETA #SoftBankQ2AIReturns
AI goldmine — OpenAI $2.15T gain Q2, $79.6B FV vs $34.6B cost = $45B unrealized. Nvidia exit 32.1M shares $5.83B Oct, Arm + telecom stable. Vision Fund + OpenAI $500B val (was $300B Mar). Final $10B tranche done Oct 1 → total $64.6B = 13% OpenAI.
Valuation: $15.4, $169B mcap, P/E 5.2x, 78% run Sep Q (+best since 2005), now -25% off high. ROE 26%, margin 62%. Debt ¥5T, EUR 405M note redeemed.
Call: 90% BEAT needs >¥3T profit on OpenAI markup + no impairment to hit ¥7,000.Bitcoin will either plunge or surge significantly
After the past two midterm elections, BTC experienced sharp declines:
▪️In the post-election phase of 2018, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -50%
▪️In the post-election phase of 2022, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -25%
The next midterm election is on November 3.
History does not simply repeat itself, but both post-election periods shared the commonality of deep corrections.
Do you think the market will replay this historical scenario after this election?
❗This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Is $BTC Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming? Let's talk about the current trading opportunities.
1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to be like a eunuch! Constantly pondering the emperor's will, guessing the next move of King Trump.
2. Over the weekend, US crude oil CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover.
3. So what will Bitcoin do next? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. So I believe the downside risk is relatively limited, and since there has already been a significant pullback recently, buying on dips can be considered. Those who have bottomed out can wait patiently.
4. I don't know if you've noticed, but recently there have been so many negative factors in the market—US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen—so many bad news, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop, which is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market.
5. So now the market is such that despite negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. And what if there is good news later? Just think about it, something big will come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there might also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and pay attention to the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that level, if not, then forget it.Binance launched 4 TradeFi perpetual contracts all priced in USDT today, with liquidation handled on Binance RCH, and the launch times staggered by 5 minutes each.
EIDOUSDT at 17:00, EQTUSDT at 17:05, STMUSDT at 17:10, ABBVUSDT at 17:15. EIDO and EQT track US and European stock ETFs, STM is STMicroelectronics, ABBV is AbbVie; all four contracts are well-established traditional assets.
This pace is worth noting. Previously, launching a new product required the platform to warm up for several days, but now 4 are queued within 15 minutes, showing the variety pool is expanding faster than user education.
For contract traders, there are three practical impacts. First, liquidity is thinnest in the 15 minutes before opening, spreads and spike risks are high, so avoid rushing in immediately. Second, these assets don’t have the 7×24 sentiment of crypto markets; prices follow US and European trading hours, with possible no movement overnight and gaps at daytime open. Third, USDT pricing means no need to swap coins, but funding rates and margin rules must be reviewed carefully—don’t apply crypto parameters directly.
The platform bringing traditional finance into contracts is essentially competing for a bigger pool. The more varieties, the more stories to tell, but what really determines your profitability are the old questions: position size, leverage, and when not to enter.The biggest buyer didn't buy this week: Strategy spent $205 million elsewhere
The article at dawn said institutional buying couldn't keep up with mining, and by evening there was a ready-made footnote.
According to Monday's SEC filing, Strategy neither bought nor sold a single $BTC last week, nor did it touch the ATM issuance; it spent the entire $204.9 million on repurchasing its own preferred stock STRC, buying back 2.07 million shares in one week. This is the first time it paused after buying coins for four consecutive weeks — the amount spent on buying coins had shrunk from $140 million to below $30 million over the previous three weeks.
The accounting goes like this: since October, Strategy has spent about $664 million on STRC repurchases, only about $72.3 million on buying $BTC, acquiring 851 coins. Holdings remain at 848,517 coins, with an average price of $75,446, current price about $79,980 (Beijing time 22:13), still positive on paper.
Comparison group: in the same week, Strive made its largest coin purchase ever, over $510 million. One paused, one increased — there is significant internal disagreement among institutions about the 80,000 level.
There is a reason for the buyback: STRC once fell below $98 last Monday, under the $100 par value, only recovering above $99 on Friday. Whether to stabilize its own preferred stock first or continue to increase $BTC holdings, Saylor chose the former this week.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will report after the market closes on October 27. Honestly, market expectations for this earnings report are quite high. After all, Q2 numbers were outstanding: revenue surged 32% to 1.31 billion, and net inflows hit a new high of 22 billion USD. But with expectations set so high, Q3 is somewhat "riding a tiger".
The analysis shows two main points of contention: first, trading activity. Q3 saw a choppy market in both US stocks and crypto, so has retail investors' "gambling nature" been suppressed? Whether trading volume and commission income can sustain the baseline is a big test. Second, the growth of new business. Relying solely on the old core business is no longer enough; it depends on whether new products like derivatives and retirement accounts can actually monetize.
My personal view is that $HOOD is currently going through a "breaking out of the circle" growing pain phase. The inflow volume shows the user base is solid, but future revenue can't just rely on luck (dependence on trading volume). If this earnings report can prove that new business contributes substantially, then the stock price will have a new story to tell. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook
Guide $255-290M / $0.11-0.26 EPS. Q2 BEAT: $191.9M vs $190.5M, EPS $0.06 vs $0.01 (+0.22 YoY). 5th record Qtr.
Why YES:
800G transceiver ramp, 1.6T orders, TX fab expansion. Datacenter AI optics = Nvidia rack boom. Rev 5Qs up. Gross margin improving.
Valuation: $102, $5.7B mcap, 52W $18.5-$233.7, -30% off high, RSI 30 oversold, below 50/200 SMA ($106/$132). P/E -87x, beta 3.85.
Call: 70% BEAT — needs >$280M + EPS >$0.20 + 1.6T guide to reclaim $135. Miss <$250M = $85.$HYPE has a real trading ecosystem as support, but the recent decline indicates that sentiment remains cautious. It cannot be assumed to have bottomed out just based on the pullback; continue to observe platform revenue and capital flow to see if the price can stabilize again at 78-80 A 9% pullback is called a "normal shakeout in a bull market," but is it really that easy on the derivatives side? Is this wave actually shaking out floating chips, or quietly building a squeeze trigger? Last night when I was watching the market, my first reaction wasn’t the price, but the two lines of funding rate and open interest: BTC pulled back about 9% from the high, and sentiment-wise everyone started waiting for a "lower low," but the perpetual side didn’t show that clean deleveraging feeling. A well-known trader said this is just a decent correction in a bull market and suggested continuing to dollar-cost average BTC in the coming weeks, the mid-term logic is intact. I agree with his point of "don’t be misled by short-term panic," but from a derivatives perspective, I care more about who is holding the positions and who is waiting for cheaper chips during this pullback. The on-site signals are roughly like this: - Price pulled back about 9%, which is a common correction range in a bull market, but the market is generally waiting for an "extreme low" to replay - The last spike-style liquidation was the result of multiple bad news exploding simultaneously, currently there is no equivalent density of negative news - Buyers in Q4 are still waiting to enter at lower levels, spot buying is hesitant - Perpetual open interest and funding rates have not been completely cleared, indicating leverage is still in the market - High beta targets like ETH and ZEC are falling along, risk appetite is short-term defensive My understanding is: what the market is actually trading now is "whether the pullback is deep enough," not whether the trend is broken. The mid-term logic still holds, the dollar-cost averaging approach itself is not wrong, but there is an easily overlooked point on the derivatives side—if leverage hasn’t been cleaned out, if the price probes lower again, it will trigger the【Crypto Circle Script】
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Hynix's earnings report hasn't even come out yet
So why is the market already popping champagne?
HBM4 hasn't really delivered much profit yet
But everyone is already calculating how much can be earned next quarter
The money hasn't even been pocketed 🧧
Why does it feel like it's already been earned?
If the market believes
Hynix can still make more money with HBM4 going forward
Then funds will buy in early
By the time the profits are actually realized
The stock price may have already gone through a rally
If everyone knows AI demand is strong
And everyone knows HBM is key
Then how much of these positives
Have not yet been priced into the market?
Today's supply shortage
Doesn't mean it will always be in shortage
So I think
When looking at Hynix's earnings report this time
We shouldn't just focus on how much it earned
But also whether it can continue to earn this much in the future
What do you think?
After Hynix's earnings report is released this time
Will it continue to surge
Or will it pull back after the good news is realized?
$BTC $ETH #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth
Why YES:
AI optical boom — 200G EML lasers 2x QoQ record, pump +90% YoY, OCS backlog $400M+ (was $10M Q1). Undershipping demand 30%, at capacity thru CY27. Q4 guide $960M-$1.01B vs $908M est. CPO + optical scale-up replacing copper H2 26.
Valuation: $780, $69B mcap, +335% 1Y, +111% YTD. P/E 346x scary — debt 6.4x. But OM 25%→32%→30-31% guide.
Call: 85% BEAT — needs >$1.30B + EPS >$4.50 + OCS >$500M backlog to break $900. $1.20B miss = $650 flush.As soon as the US stock market opened, Bitcoin immediately gave the whole network a harsh lesson. The 80,000 round number was as fragile as paper, instantly smashed down to around 79,600. By now, has someone in the group already started shouting "golden pit" and preparing to charge? Brother, hold your horses! After seeing the data, you might not want to rush in anymore.
$BTC current price is 79,980, breaking the psychological barrier. Logically, it should cause panic, right? Not at all! The 4-hour long-short ratio is still high at 2.24. Retail investors think it's a discount sale and are still buying, with open interest not decreasing, indicating all positions are being firmly held.
Looking at $ETH now at 2,311, it’s right on the edge of a cliff. This data is even more absurd than Bitcoin’s; the 4-hour long-short ratio has soared to 2.69. This is true love—falling like this and still not giving up, desperately adding positions. The main players love this kind of stubbornness; they won’t lift you up unless they completely wipe out your leveraged positions.
Finally, $SOL is currently at 101.3, with the battle to defend the 100 mark underway. The 4-hour long-short ratio has reached 2.94, practically wearing out the short button. Below are dense bullish chips; once the 100 level breaks, a chain reaction stampede will begin.
My view: Seeing the US stock market open like this, retail investors are rushing in. As for me, I’ll continue to stay empty-handed, drink tea, and watch the show. Don’t ever think a drop must mean a rebound. In such a crowded bullish market, there’s often a heavy hammer waiting behind.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 With one sentence from Musk tonight, he crushed a string of "new cloud" companies: CoreWeave down 4%, Nebius down 4.7%, IREN also falling. His exact words were that these companies will face major consolidation and closures.
What’s intriguing is that the person saying this is himself pouring money wildly into building computing power. This isn’t bearish on AI; it’s about clearing risks along the entire chain—the weakest link has never been the giants holding hundreds of billions in cash, but the middlemen who borrow money to buy GPUs and then sublease them.
Wherever leverage is added, that layer cracks first. If this round really hits trouble, it will most likely start with these names, not Nvidia. Keep an eye on them. 5600 dropped to 4000, is the gold bull market dead?
Last week it fell 4%, breaking the round number support, and the whole internet was shouting "gold is finished." But after reviewing central bank holdings data, I found a chilling truth — all the sellers are leveraged traders, while those picking up chips remain silent.
First, the surface looks terrible: really terrible.
From the January high of 5580 down to 4000, 25% is gone. Last week recorded the worst weekly drop since June, daily moving averages are all bearish, with the 20-day MA at 4155 and 50-day MA at 4340, price lying below them. RSI dropped to 27-35, oversold, but no bullish divergence.
Everyone says "the gold bull market is over" and "de-dollarization is a scam."
Do you believe it?
First thing: the reason for the drop is not that gold is weak, but that interest rates are too high.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still near 5%.
The opportunity cost of holding gold is ridiculously high — why hold a non-yielding metal when you can put money in government bonds earning 5% risk-free interest?
Add to that a hot September CPI at 3.7%, strong PPI, and high oil prices, the market is betting a 75-80% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar is strong, and gold is being pressed down hard.
It's not that gold is worthless, it's that "the cost of holding gold" is too high.
When rates ease, gold will be the first to take off.
Second thing: while you are cutting losses, central banks are quietly buying.
Emerging market central banks — China, India, Turkey — have been steadily increasing holdings this year by over 1000 tons.
They bought above 4000, and now below 4000, have they fled? No.
ETF holdings have not increased significantly during the pullback, what does this mean?
Short-term speculative funds are exiting, long-term allocation funds are waiting.
Third thing: technically, gold has reached the "faith test zone," but not yet the bottom-fishing starting gun.
Strong support: 3980-4000 (round number + recent low cluster), break that and look at 3960-3940 (July lows), then 3900.
Resistance: 4040-4075 (previous support turned resistance), then 4100-4120, 4150-4200 is a dense moving average zone.
Pattern: inside a descending channel, after liquidity sweep below, a rebound, but until it stands above key moving averages, this is just a bear market rally, not a reversal.
Monday's rebound 0.3-0.6%, oversold repair, don't get excited.
Before the FOMC, any rebound could be a trap.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
Bears say:
Interest rates at 5%, holding cost too high
75-80% chance of December hike
Oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooling
All moving averages bearish, descending channel intact
Bulls say:
Central banks buying 1000 tons solidly
25% drop from 5600, correction deep enough
RSI oversold, technical rebound imminent
High debt + geopolitical uncertainty, mid-term logic intact
Short term I'm bearish, mid term I'm bullish.
But before the FOMC (October 28), anyone heavily positioned is foolish.
Trading strategy
Before FOMC (1-3 days):
Light positions or wait and see.
If itching to short: short on rebound 4040-4070, stop loss above 4100, targets 4000→3980→3960.
If itching to long: hold 3980-4000, wait for hammer/engulfing pattern then light long, stop loss below 3960, target 4040-4070.
Event trading (FOMC + PCE):
Dovish statement → rebound 4100-4150
Hawkish or PCE beats expectations → break 3960, look at 3900 or lower
Reduce positions or hedge before decision, don't bet your life on direction.
Mid to long term:
Build physical/ETF positions in batches within 3900-4000 range, don't go all in.
Stop loss? Mid-long term focus is on central bank gold buying and de-dollarization, not a single candlestick. But position size should not exceed 20% of total funds.
Gold now is like Bitcoin in March 2020 —
Pandemic crash, everyone said "safe haven assets failed," but it doubled in six months.
This time is the same:
You didn't lose to gold, you lost to the illusion that "everyone else is selling."
$BTC $ETH $XAU From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, after which it underwent a correction, with the current price down about 36% from the peak. Although there was a rebound in Q3, ETF fund flows were volatile, with significant net outflows during some periods. On-chain data shows that long-term holders remain relatively stable, but short-term costs and leveraged liquidations make the price highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Declining trading volume and neutral sentiment indicate that the market is waiting for a clear catalyst rather than actively pricing in a new trend.
Entering November, the market is likely to continue with high volatility and consolidation rather than a one-sided strong trend. The primary variable is the Federal Reserve's subsequent path. If the statement after this week's meeting is hawkish or the dot plot strengthens the expectation of a rate hike in December, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, further compressing the risk premium of crypto assets. Conversely, if data shows inflation easing or the chair's tone is more flexible, it could trigger a short-term rebound targeting the resistance zone of $82,000 to $85,000. Overall, however, financing costs remain a constraint, and Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in real interest rates.#OkloQ3NuclearOutlook
Q2 MISS: -$0.28 vs -$0.16 est, Rev $1.21M vs $0.09M beat but loss wider. No profit till 2028 ($51M est).
Valuation pain:
$25.5, 52W $26.3-$152, -64% YTD, -81% 1Y. Citi $57.5→$33, Truist $51→$31, Piper cut too. Avg PT $75 = 170% upside but dilution — $1B ATM sold 18M shares. Inst 85%. Net -$105M, P/B $9.45.
Call: 20% EPS BEAT — earnings irrelevant. Needs licensing milestone + no new ATM + ARK buying to hold $25. Miss = $23. $14 bear case.Brothers, in the dynamic group everyone is shouting "bottom fishing, bottom fishing $BTC," I want to ask: at this point, do you dare to bottom fish? How many people have truly bottom fished?
Let's not look at anything else, just the current market trend:
From the K-line trend, BTC has completely broken down from the high level, all short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with one big bearish candle after another pressing down hard. Every small rebound now can't even reach the previous high, it's a classic downward continuation pattern with no sign of stabilization or counterattack.
Looking at the order book depth, there are dense large sell orders around 79,640 above, the selling pressure is very heavy. Meanwhile, the buy orders below are sparse and can't absorb the dumped chips. Funds are flowing out, and the main force has no intention to support the price.
In such a one-sided downward trend, the bottom hasn't been confirmed at all; bottom fishing now is like catching a flying knife, no one knows if there's a basement under the floor.
So, do I dare to bottom fish? My answer is no, and I won't join that hype. Following the big trend to short is much safer than blindly guessing the bottom.
I'm holding this short position firmly, and I won't exit without a clear stabilization signal.
My short position entry price is 83436.2, now it has directly dropped to 79621.8, firmly holding +13.71% profit!
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议