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Kraken's parent company is moving the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Would you call this a positive development, or a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing client accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first have to be on the whitelist. This is completely different from their usual permissionless approach.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rallying first. My view is that this is about grabbing TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to suddenly flood in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HOOD Robinhood｜Prediction: Choose Yes
Robinhood's performance is highly tied to the liquidity of the crypto market. The current market consensus continues to be revised upward, with Bernstein setting a target price of 0.60, indicating good upside potential.
Risks are also evident: crypto market volatility is high, and if coin prices weaken, it will drag down the platform's trading revenue. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether NIR (Net Interest Revenue) turns negative.
This forecast approach: follow the trend to bet on the upward direction of the seller consensus, waiting for the earnings report to verify.A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order in the news flash today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-something dollars back and forth, the shorts are already sweating first. Around 2300 I also wanted to short, but was too slow to enter; now it looks like I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. The one holding for four years chose to exit, the one using 25x leverage chose to stay; these two contrasting choices make it interesting.
The fees are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open positions sideways without movement, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old chips above wanting to exit, and 2300 below can’t be broken through; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ Conclusion first: $BREV rose 16.6% in the past 24 hours (0.0800→0.0933), but the buying pressure is neither on-chain nor on OKX; it's on the Korean won market in South Korea.
On South Korea's Upbit, the KRW-BREV 24-hour trading volume was 48.26 million tokens (about 4.5 million USD), with 37.36 million tokens traded in the three hours after 20:00, accounting for 77% of the daily volume. The price moved 110→122→118→122 KRW, now at 125, with a 24-hour high of 128 (+16.8%).
On-chain activity is almost empty: only $1,795 traded on Uniswap in 24 hours.
On OKX, perpetual contracts traded $6.97 million, while spot only $348,000—perpetual is 20 times the spot volume. What’s really worth noting is the funding rate: out of the last 8 periods, 7 settled negative; at 20:00 today it was -0.0155%, and the current period is -0.1125%. Shorts are continuously paying longs, yet the price keeps rising.
My judgment: the rise is driven by Korean spot market, while positions are built up in perpetuals. Market cap is only $23.27 million, FDV 93.09 million, 4x dilution. Whether the buying pressure from Korea is still there is the real question for those chasing longs; for shorts, with funding rates this negative, the odds are not in your favor. For this $BREV move, do you think it’s short-term capital or the first phase of a new narrative?This week, three major risks hang over the US stock market: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell's press conference, and GDP and core PCE data. The market is most eager for a signal of rate cuts.
At 2:00 AM the decision will be announced, followed by the 2:30 AM press conference: the interest rate is very likely to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's wording. If he acknowledges inflation easing and leaves room for rate cuts, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage sectors will likely see a rush of capital; if he remains hawkish, emphasizing inflation volatility and delaying rate cuts, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SDK are likely to take a hit first.
At 8:30 PM, GDP and core PCE data will be released: if GDP is too strong, it will be interpreted as the economy holding up well, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; core PCE is the Fed's key concern—if it rises, expectations for rate cuts will cool, and the tech sector may plunge; if it falls below the previous 0.2%, rate cut expectations will heat up, giving growth stocks momentum to rebound.
SK Hynix's earnings report has just been released, and the storage sector was already in a battle for reversal, but whether it can launch a major rally depends on the Fed's macro gate. Earnings reflect the sector's fundamentals, but interest rates and inflation are the overall market's master switch. Even if earnings are good, if Powell remains hawkish, any rebound may be interrupted; conversely, if inflation weakens and the Fed turns dovish, risk assets like US stocks, semiconductors, and BTC are expected to rise in tandem.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Brothers, I'm numb, really numb!
This time I really have to thank this "toy company" that makes robots, it gave me a solid feast!
Why call it a toy company?
Go and savor the "mismatch between capital frenzy and deployment economics."
That sounds too literary, so in plain A-share language: the story is too rich, but the actual performance is disappointingly weak!
Concepts are hyped to the sky, valuations soar to unimaginable heights, but in the end, real profits have to pay the bill. What if they can't?
They can only crash down!
Look at the $UNITREE candlestick chart, it previously skyrocketed to 104.79. How many people got jealous and rushed in impulsively?
And the result? Now the truth is out, it’s crashed straight down to 93.50.
All the moving averages above have turned downward, forming a crushing pressure like Mount Tai.
The crazier it rose before, the more miserable it falls now. This is pure bubble burst, value returning!
My short position at the high of 102, holding until now, comfortably took an 83% profit.
When trading, never be brainwashed by so-called "grand narratives." No matter how big the bubble, it will always be popped by a needle someday.
I’ve already planned the next script: if it dares to struggle desperately and rebounds to the dense trapped zone between 96 and 98, I will be ruthless and decisively add to my short position!
$BTC
$ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $11 billion worth of BTC options expire on Friday, a figure that deserves more attention than the FOMC many have been watching this week. Guess which direction market makers fear the price will move the most right now? First, look at the calendar: October 29 FOMC, with interest rates most likely to remain unchanged; the real variable is the forward guidance in December, where a more hawkish tone would shrink risk appetite. On the same day, there are also PCE and Q3 GDP reports. Cooling inflation is a tailwind for narrative coins like ZEC, but if prices stick, the rebound space is limited. However, these two events are about expectations; the real impact on the books comes from the $11 billion BTC options settlement on October 30. Why is the options settlement more worth watching than the news? Because market makers' hedging is mechanical. There are large positions stacked in the 83K to 85K range; when prices approach this range, gamma hedging forces them to chase rallies and sell into dips, amplifying volatility. Once prices deviate, hedging pressure diminishes, and the market tends to suddenly calm down. In other words, BTC's rhythm this week is likely not a one-sided narrative but first pulled by the derivatives structure. Here's how I see the transmission path: if the FOMC guidance is hawkish and PCE remains sticky, risk appetite contracts first, high-beta altcoins come under pressure, and ETH's volatility rises along with BTC's; if inflation data cools, narrative coins like ZEC warm up first, but whether funds dare to spread to altcoins depends on whether BTC's volatility falls after settlement. The bullish side is that once settlement lands and hedging pressure releases, prices standing back at the upper range edge can restore sentiment; the risk is if the 83K to 85K range breaks, mechanical
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) (October 19-26, 2026)
This indicator tracks the price distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) at the time of its last on-chain movement (transaction) currently in circulation.
Each orange bar represents the amount of BTC last transacted within a specific price range (here spaced at $1000 intervals, i.e., ATH segments).
Chip Concentration Areas: The taller the bar, the more "chips" (trading volume) accumulated in that price range. These areas are technically considered important support zones (dense areas below, where many holding costs lie, potentially attracting buy orders during declines) or resistance zones (dense areas above, where price rises may encounter selling pressure to break even).
URPD DIFF (Chip Changes) (October 19-26, 2026)
Based on URPD, this marks the increase or decrease of chips by comparing the selected time period:
Red solid bars (DIFF positive): indicate an increase in chips in the price range, showing a recent large volume of BTC changing hands at this price (accumulation or turnover).
Green dashed lines (DIFF negative): indicate a decrease in chips in the price range, showing that chips originally at this price have shifted (upward shifts often mean profit-taking sales, downward shifts may mean loss-cutting or redistribution).
Current Chart and Market Analysis
Combining the data in the chart (current price around $80,500) and the current market structure:
Core Chip Concentration Area (Strong Support)
Chart$BTW is such a new coin, rising more than 200 times in just a few months. The key point is that at its peak, the fully unlocked market cap was nearly 30 billion. It's really funny that a coin with such a lackluster market cap could make it into the top ten.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
"Robinhood Explosive Volume: Where Does the Increment Come From?"
Robinhood's crypto trading fees surged quarter-over-quarter in Q3, with retail and high-frequency trading enthusiasm in the US stock market fully ignited.
Comparing with spot trading data across the web, BTC's daily trading volume gradually declined from $553 million on October 22 to $225 million on the 27th, with the price oscillating repeatedly around the $80,000 mark.
The platform earns fees through lending coins with leverage and high-frequency turnover, but whether the subsequent trading growth momentum can be sustained depends crucially on the Q3 audited financial report to be released on October 30. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix's Q3 2026 financial report will be released on October 28. In Q3, HBM4 is mostly in the stacking and early volume ramp-up stages. The strong performance and profits for the quarter are still mainly supported by the high-priced long-term contracted HBM3E and DRAM price increases. Whether HBM4 can substantially boost profitability depends on mass production yield, unit manufacturing cost, and order visibility for Q4.$PYPL Today's key focus is whether payment transaction volume can drive a rebound in profit margins. Active accounts and total payment volume on payment platforms only matter if they convert into high-quality transaction revenue; competition and promotions will erode profits. The interest rate environment also affects consumption and financing costs. If transaction volume growth, profit margins, and cash flow all improve simultaneously, a recovery is credible; if revenue is driven by low-margin business and user growth is weak, I will remain cautious. $XAU Gold has finally broken through the short-term resistance near 4040 after several days of grinding
The area around 4100 is also a dense pressure zone; currently, focus on whether this resistance level can continue to be broken
The current gold news is in a transitional phase of "weakening headwinds but suppression not eliminated," with bullish and bearish forces more balanced than before
The factors supporting the rebound mainly come from two lines: first, the decline in oil prices has eased inflation and the transmission pressure of rate hikes. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Iran for talks, showing marginal progress in Middle East diplomatic mediation. Brent crude fell back to around $110, and WTI briefly dropped below $100 intraday. The cooling of oil prices has temporarily removed the main driving force of the suppression chain "high inflation → Fed forced to tighten further," giving gold some breathing room. Second, there is structural buying support below 4000.
However, this is currently an oversold rebound; gold needs to hold above 4230 to be considered a strong rebound. The directional choice will most likely be broken by this week's Fed decision and subsequent PCE data
The above is a personal opinion for reference only Why is the crypto market still rising tonight when US data is so strong?
Let's look at the data first. At 8:30, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, the biggest increase in five months; at 10:00, the consumer confidence index was 91.7, while the market had expected 81. Both are numbers that say "the economy is very strong," and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 5%, peaking at 4.997.
Logically, this should give the Federal Reserve more confidence to stay tough, and risk assets should be avoided.
So what happened? $BTC was still below 80,000 during the day but rallied back to 80,300 at night; $ETH bounced from 2299 to 2334; $SOL also climbed back above 100. Some people started saying "all bad news is priced in."
Honestly, I don't understand this kind of rally.
It seems everyone only remembers one thing: a rate hike is very unlikely early Thursday morning. So no matter how strong the data is, it can be interpreted as "no rate hike anyway, so it's good news." But the fact that the Treasury yield surged to 5% is being ignored by the market—when the risk-free rate is nearly 5%, money can earn interest just by sitting idle, so who would still speculate in crypto?
My view is simple: tonight's rally is mostly a rebound from the daytime drop and short covering, plus a bunch of people betting on no rate hike. The real bombshell will be on Thursday, when Powell talks about December.
Then we'll know if tonight's bullish candle is a rebound or a trap to lure you in.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
A comprehensive early interpretation of the rate decision
Maintaining the rate unchanged in October is a foregone conclusion, but the real killer move is hidden in the press conference wording and the December rate hike expectations.
First, the conclusion prediction.
First, October will definitely hold steady, this is an undisputed clear card.
The CME data in the chart has already revealed the bottom line, with a 90.6% probability of maintaining the rate unchanged. The Federal Reserve cannot create surprises at this critical moment and go against the entire market.
Second, the biggest variable is that this meeting does not have a dot plot.
This time, no new economic forecast will be released. This means the market has lost one of the most important coordinates. Without the guidance of the dot plot, every word and phrase from the Fed Chair at the press conference will be scrutinized by investors with a magnifying glass, becoming the sole anchor for market pricing.
Third, the guillotine of a December rate hike still hangs overhead.
The probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has soared to between 67.5% and 73.9%. This indicates that even if October pauses, the Fed is still hawkish at its core.
Specific predictions for BTC:
If the press conference is hawkish: As long as the statement or speech continues to emphasize stubborn inflation or that restrictive policies still need to be maintained, the expectation of a December rate hike will be reinforced again.
If the press conference is dovish: Unless the Fed explicitly signals that the rate hike cycle has ended, the market is unlikely to reverse directly. BTC may stabilize with reduced volume around the 80,000 level, leading to a short-term oversold rebound. $BTC 🚨$HYPE Don't just focus on price fluctuations! What bulls should really pay attention to is that it is turning trading volume into token demand!
Many people trade crypto only by looking at red and green candlesticks, but they overlook a core issue: can the money a project earns actually support the token?
HYPE's bullish logic lies exactly here!
📌 First, buyback and burn is not just empty talk!
Hyperliquid uses eligible protocol fees to buy back HYPE, then burns the tokens through the aid fund mechanism. Public reports show that as of mid-October, the cumulative buyback scale has reached tens of millions of HYPE. The more active the trading, the more opportunity for protocol revenue to increase, giving the token more direct demand support. Note that the income and buyback ratio also vary; rising trading volume does not necessarily push the token price up.
📌 Second, the ecosystem no longer only focuses on cryptocurrencies
HIP-3 is expanding perpetual contract markets for more assets, giving Hyperliquid the chance to capture trading demand for assets like gold and silver. The larger the market, the more users and revenue sources the platform can reach in the future.
📌 Third, what do bulls really need to wait for?
Not to blindly buy the dip when seeing a drop, but to observe whether key supports hold, whether rebounds have volume support, and whether funding rates and open interest are overheated. A volume breakout above resistance makes the bullish structure more convincing; if support fails, be cautious of further pullbacks.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $MEME Amazon's earnings report is coming soon. Besides AWS growth, I also want to hear about Trainium.
Amazon disclosed in Q2 that the annualized revenue scale of its AI business and chip business each exceeds $25 billion. It is important to note that the annualized scale is calculated based on the current business pace and should not be considered as completed full-year revenue, nor should the two be simply added together as independent new revenue.
What interests me is whether self-developed chips can help AWS retain customers.
If customers migrate workloads over and achieve suitable performance and cost, AWS has the opportunity to secure longer-term usage through the combination of chips, software, and cloud services. Such customer relationships are more worth observing than a one-time equipment sale.
However, from announcement to large-scale use, adaptation is needed. Whether developers can migrate easily and whether operations are stable will affect how many tasks customers ultimately put on it. Signing a partnership is far from completing all the work.
I hope the earnings report can provide more progress on actual usage and less hype supported only by promised amounts. After all, customers' willingness to pay continuously indicates the product has entered daily operations.
AWS is already very large, and the market's willingness to expect higher growth naturally demands more concrete evidence. If self-developed chips can continuously bring customers and profits, I think this achievement is more exciting than simply buying another batch of GPUs.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XRP
While many are focused on stablecoins regarding Ripple's partnership with Robinhood, I'm watching another development: BNY Mellon announced custody of XRP and RLUSD, and plans to collaborate with Ripple on tokenizing trade finance.
The term "custody," coming from a 200-year-old established bank, carries a different weight. Previously, exchanges held your coins; now traditional banks say, "We'll do it." I acknowledge this system—licenses are not obtained for nothing.
XRP is currently priced at 1.317, fluctuating between 1.284 and 1.321 in the past 24 hours, up just over 1%, with a fee rate of 0.01%, and no rush of funds.
People often ask me where XRP can go; I don't give a price. Traditional finance is starting to guard the crypto space, and that is worth more than today's 1% gain—when someone truly puts client assets in, I'll make a separate note.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order flash in the news today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-some dollars, and the shorts are already sweating. I also wanted to short around 2300 but was too slow to enter; looking back, I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. Choosing to exit after four years versus choosing to stay with 25x leverage—these two decisions happening simultaneously is quite interesting.
The fee rates are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open interest sideways and unmoved, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old coins above wanting to exit, and 2300 below is a support that can’t be broken; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Can $KO's earnings report today indicate that consumer demand remains resilient? For beverage companies, pricing, sales mix, and exchange rate impacts are more important than just looking at revenue; if price increases exceed consumer tolerance, revenue growth may be accompanied by a decline in sales volume. Today's results will provide real clues. If organic sales remain stable and profit margins hold, I will maintain a defensive stance; if sales weaken and growth is only supported by price hikes, the defensive premium needs to be revised downward. $ETH #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take over?
#October FOMC rate decision to be announced this week
#ETF inflow divergence: funds only cling to BTC, full-scale counterattack is still early
Spot ETFs seem to be warming up, but funds are extremely "biased": BTC attracted $110 million in a single day, IBIT ended outflows and supported the 80,000 level; ETH, however, saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million, with large outflows from BlackRock dragging the overall market; SOL simultaneously outflowed $8.23 million, with high-beta assets bearing the brunt first. This is by no means a full market reversal, just a "selective risk aversion" by funds ahead of the FOMC.
The market fully confirms the divergence: BTC repeatedly battles around the 80,000 mark, facing selling pressure upon touching it. The cumulative outflow pressure exceeding $770 million over the past two days remains unresolved, and single-day inflows are far from enough to reverse the trend. ETH is stuck in a second consolidation range between 2313-2530, running close to the lower boundary. Although downward momentum has eased, incremental buying is lacking, with clear resistance at 2400 and weak breakout strength.
On-chain fund data also shows divergence, with flows contradicting depending on the metrics, essentially reflecting the current fragmented consensus between bulls and bears, with funds acting independently. Before the decision, the market will most likely continue narrow oscillations. In a structural market, avoid blindly bottom-fishing altcoins. Watch closely for two confirmation signals going forward: BTC effectively holding above 80,000 and ETF funds turning to sustained net inflows. Only when both are met simultaneously can the trend be considered stable. The "Fee Drain Fault" in the LSD Track: World's Largest Staking Scale, But Why Doesn't the Token Price Rise?
LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) and Restaking tracks are often seen as stable cash cows generating steady yields. However, a large scale does not necessarily mean strong token empowerment. If profits do not flow to token holders, a hundred-billion TVL is just self-indulgence by the project team.
Comparing these three projects:
$LDO: The absolute leader in liquid staking with extremely high TVL. But looking through the token mechanism, the protocol's staking fee revenue is not directly distributed to token holders, and the governance token still lacks hard cash flow capture. When you buy it, you are buying an expectation of ecosystem share, not real dividends.
$ETHFI: The business is indeed expanding, with crypto card payments contributing decent income. But its pain point lies in extremely random buyback execution: it was significantly reduced mid-term, and although it has resumed, it is far below expectations. Also, the team’s tokens are still continuously unlocking, severely diluting the positive cash flow due to selling pressure.
$PENDLE: No gimmicks, directly uses up to 80% of protocol revenue to buy back and distribute to stakers. It does not rely on treasury favors but returns real cash flow to token holders with an extremely rigid mechanism.
Conclusion:
TVL is not a moat; the profit transmission path is. When evaluating LSD/Restaking projects, don’t be fooled by scale. First check: does its net profit directly convert into token buy pressure or dividends through hard-coded mechanisms? Cash flow without mechanism constraints is irrelevant to you. Core Risk Warning
1. Once the "iron bottom" at 79,600 is decisively broken with volume, over 150 million long positions will be directly liquidated: 79,200 is the recent dense liquidation zone for longs, closely aligned with the October 24 waterfall low. If this defense line is breached by selling pressure after the FOMC, the next target will directly point to 78,000.
2. The 68% probability of a rate hike in December is the real "dark horse" of the FOMC: The October pause has been fully priced in, so if Powell clearly paves the way for December, the market will need to reprice the "second half" of the rate path. This is the biggest asymmetric risk after the decision.
3. The ETF structure with "IBIT solely supporting" is extremely fragile: The precedent of 773.5 million is not far away.
4. Open interest remains high, providing ample "fuel" for leveraged liquidations: BTC contract open interest has risen to about 669,253 BTC amid price declines, with traders holding large derivative positions even as spot weakens. Once direction is clear, volatility could be amplified.
5. AI IPO siphoning + tech earnings both bias negative: While the Anthropic IPO boosts AI sentiment, it also diverts risk capital; regardless of tech earnings results, the transmission path to BTC is unfavorable. BTC lacks a beneficial path in this combination.
6. Weekly Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish crossover: This is a mid-term level signal indicating momentum is weakening on the weekly scale, so short-term rebound characterization requires more caution.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Bitcoin is stuck near $80,200, and Ethereum is consolidating around $2,326. The current market trend can be summed up in four words: extremely low volume.
This kind of market with less than 1% volatility is indeed dull to watch. The $80,000 level has become a tug-of-war battleground between bulls and bears. There's a lack of funds to push it higher, and on the downside, there are buyers supporting the price, so the market can only stalemate. Ethereum's trend is weaker, merely hovering above $2,300 following Bitcoin.
Why is big money holding back? The core reason lies in macro-level uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is imminent, coupled with several tech giants about to release earnings reports, making the macro environment like a "blind box." Risk aversion is strong, liquidity is scarce, so Bitcoin and Ethereum can only grind within this range, waiting for new directional guidance. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI Google's current GAAP EPS is 2.97 and the expected level for this quarter is 3.03, so to surpass it, it needs 4% more, and I bet that on the last day Google won't be able to reach that income level$QQQ earnings and interest rates coincide this week; will the concentration of the Nasdaq 100 amplify volatility? Major tech stocks are densely reporting earnings, with AI capital expenditure, cloud growth, and ad monetization collectively impacting index heavyweight stocks. The FOMC decision on the same day may drive discount rate volatility. If earnings are strong and the breadth of gains expands, the trend is healthier; if leading companies' earnings diverge and yields rise, the index is likely to be dragged down by a few heavyweights.With Anthropic officially submitting its IPO prospectus, first-half revenue surged over 13 times year-on-year to $16.29 billion, instantly igniting market confidence in AI trading. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring 2.82%, marking its largest single-day gain since September 21, and all component stocks turning positive. From the OKEx watchlist market perspective, risk assets show an extremely fragmented yet individually brilliant picture. U.S. Stock Leverage and Semiconductors: Sentiment Recovery and "Buy the Dip" U.S. stock leverage and chip targets are leading tonight. SOXL closed at 96.33 (+5.83%), aggressively leading the gains. On the capital side, SOXL attracted over $9 billion in the past two weeks, setting a record for the largest biweekly inflow in the product's history; TQQQ closed at 69.86 (+1.63%), with over $1.3 billion inflow in two weeks, the second-largest biweekly inflow in 2026. The top ten U.S. leveraged ETFs have net inflows exceeding $12 billion in the past month. Retail investors continue to add positions against the trend during the AI pullback, but the combined market value has shrunk by about $20 billion in the same period, so the leverage loss risk of "buying the dip" has not disappeared. Individual stocks: $SNDK closed at 1,294.6 (+2.50%), with the storage sector collectively strengthening. Elon Musk publicly stated that the memory required for robots will exceed any other field, adding fuel to the storage demand narrative, with Western Digital and Seagate both rising significantly. AXTI closed at 56.12 (+0.34%), benefiting directly from AI data center optical communication demand for indium phosphide substrates, with Q2 revenue hitting a record, and Q3 earnings willBlackRock's sell-off funds are fleeing wildly! Is the $BTC main force going to "bloodbath" the bulls?
Trend is king, capital is emperor! Brothers, look at the 1-hour chart with a continuous decline, MACD dead cross downward. The capital situation is extremely poor, with nearly 2.9 billion fleeing in 7 days, score -94, and BlackRock selling 136 million adds insult to injury. Although whales withdrew 900 million, the current market is very weak.
Personal view: The main force is "dulling the knife to cut the meat" to force the bulls to liquidate, most likely to probe down to 79,200 to trigger long liquidations, rather than reversing to trigger shorts! Polymarket's predicted probability of decline also confirms the pessimistic sentiment. Operation suggestion: mainly short with the trend! If it stabilizes near 79,200, you can lightly bet on a rebound; if it breaks down, follow the trend to short. $ETH $DOOD ⚠️ $BTW 4H: High FDV + massive unlocking looming, be cautious when catching falling knives!
1️⃣ Valuation divergence: Market cap is 2.2 billion, but on-chain TVL is only 39 million, circulation rate just 15%, FDV as high as 14.6 billion, price seriously detached from fundamentals.
2️⃣ Unlock countdown: About $170 million tokens unlocking on November 2, equivalent to 26-34 times the daily trading volume, heavy selling pressure.
3️⃣ Market weakness: Retraced 46% from the 2.77 high, clear distribution at the top, negative funding rate, fragile leverage structure.
Summary: A typical low-circulation pump and dump phase, extremely high short-term risk, longs must set stop losses properly, do not blindly catch the bottom. A new market trend is brewing after the market correction. How to seize the entry timing? Use the 【Moving Average Strategy】 to capture it! First: Wait for the daily chart signal to turn bullish before entering. Exit if the line breaks, as with ZEC, VVV, etc. Second: Buy on dips at key support levels on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts, and exit if the line breaks. Examples include BTC, ETH, HYPE, UNI, BNB, etc. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ETH seems to be holding up? Don't rush, maybe whales and ETFs are working together to unload!!
I said yesterday that Ethereum's rebound is weak, and the bearish direction looks more and more favorable. Today, funds still didn't give the bulls any face, ETFs continue to flow out, and early whales are transferring coins to exchanges. Once these low-cost chips are dumped, the pressure will be significant.
After dropping below 2281, Ethereum has been unable to break through the 2360 resistance #Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Memory bottleneck now, not GPU
HBM market $38B→$58B +52% 26E, $85B 27E. SK = 62% HBM share, *∼70% of NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs 50% est. 16 stacks = 576GB/stack vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Why bullish: Inventory <10 days (first ever). Wafers 150-200k/mo 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 squeezed → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM sees 20%
*Risks:* Samsung $8.7B HBM Q3 > SK $7.6B first time*
*OKX play: Long HBM leverage, short PC DDR.*Hook
ETF funds are flowing back, but extremely "biased"—BTC attracted over $100 million in a single day, while ETH saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million. This is not a full-scale counterattack, but rather a "selective admission" of funds before the macro decision.
$BTC is quoted at $80,335.6. IBIT alone ended outflows by attracting funds, showing a clear bottoming intention around 80k. However, other issuers' flows dropped to zero, resembling a "single-point defense" rather than a "full-scale attack."
$ETH is quoted at $2,332.92 (+0.24%). Large outflows from BlackRock's ETHA dragged the overall market down, with funds concentrating from altcoins to BTC. The resistance at 2,400 is obvious, lacking incremental buying, making the relay difficult.
$SOL is quoted at $100.63 (-1.22%). ETFs saw an outflow of 8.23 million on the same day, taking the brunt as funds concentrate on BTC. The psychological $100 level is under pressure, and its high beta characteristic faces a test on the eve of the decision.
Summary
ETF inflows are real, but they are "BTC flows," not "flows for the entire market." Structural inflows do not equal a trend reversal; waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision is more prudent than guessing the "relay" now.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Extremely absurd! Three major positive news events landed but no price increase across the board, with strange hidden selling pressure in the crypto space 🤔🤔🤔
Reviewing the market early morning feels increasingly strange! XRP, ZEC, and BCH all released heavy positive news on the same day, yet collectively they surged weakly and moved against the trend, with the real direction of funds on the market completely diverging from the news. 😲😲😲
$XRP received major institutional support: Aviva placed a $66 million large order, and a 22 billion fund entered the ecosystem. But the market completely ignored this, with whale addresses decreasing, exchange inventories increasing by 47 million tokens, ETF funds continuously shrinking from 1.8 billion to 1.48 billion. Once the 1.26 level breaks, it will head straight to the 1.11 low.
$ZEC's trend is even more fragmented. Against the backdrop of BTC dropping 2% this week, ZEC rose 7.5% against the trend and gained a net ETF inflow of 20.52 million. However, top traders have 80% of their positions short within 24 hours, combined with the mainnet launch on November 5, a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact pattern.
$BCH market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 60% of users holding long positions, yet it has fallen 8% over seven days, TVL is sluggish, and the active buy/sell ratio is only 0.83, clearly a case of many talking but few acting, secretly offloading.
The three major legacy coins' positive news has dulled, and funds are fleeing, with the core cause pointing directly to macro pressure. The market has now priced in a 77% chance of a rate hike in December, with the FOMC decision coming Wednesday, bearish expectations priced in advance, making it difficult to reverse the weak market trend!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Brothers, the darkest black humor moment in the crypto circle has arrived!
Retail investors are still bottom-fishing around 2300, but Arthur Hayes has already fled. 6400 ETH, worth 15.2 million USD, he left only one sentence: the market must fall first before it can rise again.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that on October 26, an Ethereum Foundation-related wallet sold another 2785 ETH, cashing out about 6.42 million USD. But note, the foundation’s sale could also be a normal operational fund arrangement, so it can’t be directly interpreted as bearish.
What’s truly worth watching out for is the capital flow!
On October 26, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 88.58 million USD, with BlackRock’s ETHA single-day outflow of 104.71 million USD offsetting some inflows from other funds. Since October, the continuous capital withdrawal is adding pressure to ETH’s rebound.
My ETH short position average price is 2583, current price 2307, floating profit 1069%. But floating profit does not equal realized profit; a market reversal can still wipe out gains.
Next, focus on three key levels: ⚠️2300: short-term psychological barrier ⚠️2281: previous low support ⚠️2209: watch for potential liquidation risk
I don’t guess the bottom, I only watch how capital and price move.
If 2300 breaks, panic may further escalate; if volume recovers key resistance, bears should also beware of a counterattack.
Brothers, do you think ETH will break below 2281 next, or will there be a strong rebound first?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 It's the 4th time 😂 $BTC has fallen below 80,000 and then risen back up. Saying it's strong, it still can't hold above 82,000; saying it's not strong, it hasn't even broken below 79,000.
But Wintermute's view is very similar to mine: 82,000 is a reversal level that must be reclaimed; if it can't be reclaimed, it's just a rebound.
Currently, BTC has fallen below all short-term moving averages (20/50-day SMA are both below 82,000), RSI is weak around 40 and pressed near the lower Bollinger Band, volume is only 68% of the 30-day average volume, so it's not just a rebound that can change the pattern.
$ETH is similar. Now, Ethereum is stubbornly holding above the critical 2300 level, RSI is about 32 approaching oversold, but all four key moving averages (20/50/100/200-day EMA) are clustered overhead between 2,360–2,453. Coupled with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, the technicals are dominated by bears, clearly weaker. Only a volume-backed move back above 2360 would indicate a trend improvement.
$ZEC, however, is much better, showing a MACD golden cross. It is now consolidating around 1216, RSI neutral at 48–50, MACD just showing a golden cross. Overall, it is stuck in the 1100–1350 range. The NU7 upgrade narrative on 11/5 supports the bottom, but the 50-day moving average at 1303 is still overhead, so the consolidation pattern remains.SK Hynix is very unlikely to exceed expectations this quarter. The main drag is the further delay in HBM4 shipments: due to the postponement of the launch and certification delays of the core customer Nvidia's Rubin chip, HBM4 shipments in Q3 continue to fall short of initial expectations, and some revenue recognition has been deferred. Meanwhile, HBM is priced under long-term contracts, so when traditional DRAM prices soar, its profit elasticity is weaker than peers, making it difficult to fully enjoy the spot price increase benefits like competitors do.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Many people are waiting for Bitcoin to break even.
History says: The day you break even is the most dangerous.The same strong sector, two different chip rhythms
$ZEC ｜Short squeeze structure, waiting for catalyst
$BTC broke below 80000, ZEC above 1200, current price 1241, 24H counter-trend rise about 2%. The most eye-catching is the chips: open interest did not decrease but increased, retail long-short ratio dropped to 0.85, shorts are fully squeezed; open interest contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest since mid-September; NU7 upgrade locked around November 5**, block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. But the resistance at 1,270 above is clear, a 4 million sell wall, short squeeze is short squeeze, the previous high is not a very cost-effective point for chasing longs.
$VVV ｜Unlock window, testing quality
VVV is near 27, but only confirmed rebound after breaking above 27.90 on September 9, falling below the 22–$23 area.
Both are sectors that outperformed BTC this year (VVV +1431% YTD, ZEC +137%), the difference is that ZEC is waiting for catalyst in a short squeeze structure, while VVV is testing quality in an unlock window. Different rhythms, don’t use the same position language.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The FOMC meeting is approaching, and the market expects about a 90% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged.
Currently, the mainstream market expectation is to keep rates unchanged; the focus is not on whether to raise rates but on the hawkish or dovish tone of the press conference.
If there is a hawkish stance, it means expectations of tightening liquidity, which is bearish for $BTC and U.S. stocks. If there is a dovish signal, it indicates increased risk appetite, which is bullish for cryptocurrencies.
$ETH $DOOD $SPY US stock AI rebound meets FOMC, can the strong index momentum spread to more sectors? AP reports that after Wall Street's rebound on Monday, Asian markets followed suit, but the rise concentrated in AI and chips does not necessarily mean market breadth is improving. Interest rate decisions and corporate guidance will determine valuations. If equal-weight sectors and broad trading follow, the rebound quality improves; if only a few giants pull the index, concentration risk remains during pullbacks.All positions are showing unrealized losses! Top whale is holding through triple short positions
Three short positions fully open, all currently at a loss, relying on funding fees to recover.
📊 Position overview:
$BTC short 5x: 2,613 coins, opened at 76,343, unrealized loss -10.59 million, funding fees +3.17 million, margin 42.02 million, liquidation price 137,300
$ETH short 5x: 106,400 coins, opened at 2,322, unrealized loss -1.55 million, funding fees +4.3 million, margin 49.74 million, liquidation price 3,723
$SOL short 7x: 719,900 coins, opened at 94.3, unrealized loss -4.77 million, funding fees +3.83 million, margin 10.38 million, liquidation price 302
Total unrealized loss across three positions is about 17 million, with funding fees collected totaling over 11 million to hedge. BTC is losing the most but has the thickest margin, liquidation prices are far away, so short-term it won't die. This guy is playing a long game with thick margin + funding fees, betting on the direction to come back. Holding such large positions at 5-7x leverage, ordinary people should not imitate.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today let's talk about two earnings reports worth paying attention to: HOOD and SK Hynix.
First, HOOD. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $1.42 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%, with earnings per share expected around $0.56.
Robinhood is no longer just a crypto trading platform; stocks, options, and prediction markets are also contributing to growth. However, crypto trading revenue previously declined 38% year-over-year, and prediction market trading volume also saw a sequential drop, so this time the focus needs to be on whether other businesses can sustain growth.
My view is that the earnings could slightly beat expectations, but it's harder to predict a stock price rise after the report. After all, the market's pre-trading expectations will also affect the final performance.
Next, SK Hynix, where AI storage remains the core logic. The market expects Q3 revenue to exceed 98 trillion KRW. Demand for HBM from AI servers, along with rising storage prices, are favorable for performance growth.
But there's also an issue: when everyone knows AI storage is booming, what really determines the stock price is not just performance growth, but whether the actual data can exceed market expectations and the company's judgment on future demand.
Overall, I personally lean toward both companies having a chance to beat expectations, but I will be more cautious about stock price movements after the earnings.
This is just my personal earnings analysis and does not constitute investment advice; ultimately, it depends on the actual data and market reaction.
This should count as participation, right SK Hynix will release Q3 results tomorrow morning. Here's my conclusion first: It will most likely beat expectations, but probably moderately, not explosively. The consensus is here: revenue around 98 trillion KRW, operating profit 77 trillion, with a profit margin close to 78%. Sequential growth of 27%, more than 5 times year-over-year. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs. Why do I think it will beat? DRAM contract prices rose 13% to 21% in Q3, NAND rose 10% to 17%. Looking at these price data, gross margin won't be bad. HBM4 has already started volume shipments to Nvidia's Vera Rubin. SK Hynix holds about 50% of the global HBM market share; as I wrote before, no one can replace this position in the short term. Long-term agreements have locked most of next year's capacity. I reviewed Micron's financial report and guidance; they said shortages will continue until 2027 to 2028. This essentially validates SK Hynix's supply-demand logic in advance. Some brokerages predict operating profit has already reached 80 trillion, higher than consensus. I think if the exchange rate impact is weaker than expected, a profit margin close to 80% is possible. But I do have concerns. The Korean won appreciation has already cut consensus by 5% to 6%. The exchange rate is still a drag. Brokerages have wide divergence, with operating profit estimates ranging from 70 trillion to 80 trillion. What I care about most is the HBM4 volume ramp; if it falls short of expectations, it will directly pressure the numbers. One more thing: the stock price has pulled back about 30% recently. I think this is not doubting the current numbers, but worrying whether AI demand can sustain. So the question is not just whether it will beat, but also what happens to the stock price after the beat SK Hynix is going to release its Q3 earnings report tomorrow, and I personally am optimistic about the results exceeding expectations.
There are several main reasons:
① DRAM and NAND prices continue to rise, which should have a significant positive impact on revenue and profits.
② AI computing power demand remains strong, and HBM high-bandwidth memory is still in short supply; Hynix is one of the main beneficiaries.
③ Some institutions' profit forecasts have already surpassed the market consensus, indicating there is room for the results to beat expectations further.
Of course, there is still some uncertainty regarding the shipment progress of HBM4.
Overall, I lean towards a slight beat of expectations in the Q3 earnings report, with a subjective probability of 75%–80% from YES.
Let's see tomorrow if this judgment holds true. 😂$BTC 79.6%, the main coin is still in the hands of individuals.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals.
River's chart breaks it down clearly. Among the tradable main coins, individuals hold 79.6%, while funds and ETFs combined only have 8.5%. Individuals hold more than 9 times what institutions do.
Bonds, stocks, and gold have been mostly held by institutions for hundreds of years. The main coin is different; after more than a decade, the majority is still in individual hands.
Why can ETF flows of just one or two hundred million dollars cause such a stir? Because the 8.5% held by institutions is active money moving in and out of the market daily, while the 79.6% held by individuals mostly stays put. The real factor determining daily prices is the flow of active money, not the size of the total holdings.
River says this will change in the future. Institutional share will only rise, slowly following the path of gold.
But that is a slow variable. Today's structure has not changed yet.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC US stock market opened for one hour, BTC made a V-shape move, almost returning to the starting point.
In the first 5 minutes after the 21:30 open, trading volume was 4 times the usual, first surging to 80,330, then hammered back to 79,890 half an hour later; at 22:25 it pulled back up to 80,360 in one go. That pullback was the largest 5-minute trading volume in the US spot market since the open, about 8 times the usual.
At the same time, the Nasdaq rose about 0.7%, while the coin price basically stayed flat for the hour. US stock buying came in but didn’t bring the coin along. The dip below 79,900 looks like US spot market buyers picking up at a low.
Today’s upper boundary at 80,500 was tested once but not broken. Without breaking above, it’s still moving back and forth within the range, with the lower boundary around 79,500. What the heck? $BTC ETF funds are actually zero! What big move are these Wall Street old foxes hiding?
Last night when Bitcoin dropped below 80,000, I guess many friends were scared and sold at a loss, but I wasn’t panicking this morning. Instead, I watched the ETF fund flows all night and found something very interesting: those Wall Street old foxes collectively played a disappearing act.
First, about Bitcoin, yesterday the ETF fund inflows and outflows were all zero! You read that right, zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still actively selling, with 16.94 million running out on the 23rd, but once it hit the critical 80,000 level, they just held their fire. What does this mean? It means institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears dare to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Now look at $ETH, the only one with fund inflows! While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly sneaked in and bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total market into a net inflow. They were still selling a couple of days ago, but now at the 2300 level, institutions clearly think the price drop has become cost-effective and have started building positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today’s market.