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PUMP has experienced two consecutive hours of volume-increased decline, and it's still unclear if the buyers are strong enough to take over.
On OKEx spot from 20:00 to 21:00, about 556,000 USDT was traded, which is 4.1 times the average of the previous 12 completed hours. The closing price dropped from 0.003823 to 0.003787. The previous hour also saw about 516,000 USDT traded. Volume has been high for two hours, but the price has fallen hour by hour.
I tend to first observe whether the selling pressure can be absorbed. There are about 244,000 USDT buy orders within 1% below the price, higher than about 131,000 USDT sell orders at the same distance above, but orders can be withdrawn and cannot be directly considered support. Contract open interest slightly decreased in the most recent complete hour, which is insufficient to prove that new shorts are aggressively increasing positions.
If the next completed hour sees volume shrink but the price still breaks below 0.00377, the support explanation weakens further; if volume increases and the price recovers to 0.00387, then we can see if the sell orders above are truly being filled.
$PUMP $TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.How do those who truly make big money in the crypto circle actually do it? After studying several successful cases with public trading records, I found that their ways of making money are actually quite different.
1. Ansem: Making early discoveries of Meme narratives
On December 1, 2023, he bought his first WIF with $472 at about $0.0003 per token, and added another $185 eight days later. This was during the market recovery phase after the 2022 bear market ended, when the Solana Meme trend was just beginning.
In April 2024, WIF peaked near $4.9, about 4 months after his initial purchase.
But he didn’t just hold on blindly. On-chain statistics show he invested about $2.14 million in total, sold about $2.85 million, realizing a profit of about $804,000, with another unrealized profit of about $745,000. Note: The 16,000x figure is the ratio of the initial purchase price to the highest price, not his actual realized gains.
2. Paulo.sol: Capturing the main Meme uptrend through trend trading. He started buying BONK on November 11, 2023, began buying WIF on December 4, and started trading BODEN on March 6, 2024. He didn’t blindly chase every new coin but increased his buying power after observing upward trends in tokens, repeatedly trading by buying low and selling high. As of April 26, 2024, on-chain tracking reports show he has realized cumulative profits of about $22.83 million across BONK, WIF, and BODEN tokens.Weekend watch: Bitcoin is currently around $75,878, trading narrowly between $74,888 and $76,378 today. The $75,000 level is still holding, but the real line is at $75,600 — that's the low on election night and near the 50-week moving average. If it can't hold this, it will be the fifth consecutive week of decline, closing below the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, Strategy holds 849,000 BTC at an average cost of about $75,451, and the current price is only about 0.6% higher, meaning the whole market is watching the same line. After the non-farm payrolls, the probability of a December rate hike is nearly 80%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, indicating extreme fear. This weekend, the focus is on whether $75,600 can hold; only a recovery above $77,700 will signal a breather $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 1. Core Conclusion This is a financial report showing "slightly below-expected profits but capital allocation far exceeding expectations." Underwriting profit dragged down by -43%, but the $9.6 billion buyback (market expectation $1.64 billion, 5.9 times) is the real key information—the management is voting with real money at a historic high. The fundamentals provide reasons to "buy on dips," but the technicals (RSI 73.6 + volume surge and pullback on 11-05) clearly warn "do not chase the breakout." $BRKB Earnings Rating: Neutral to Bullish Trading Rating: Enterable, but only on dips, do not chase breakouts Key Reference Prices: Current price 570.89 | First support 559.6–561.0 | Second support 543.7–545 | First resistance 579.09 | Second resistance 586.30 2. Q3 Earnings Breakdown (2026Q3 vs 2025Q3, unit: million USD) Item - 2026Q3 - 2025Q3 - YoY Commentary Operating Profit 12,705 - 13,485 -5.8% Operating EPS (B) 5.94, market expectation 5.91, slight beat Net Profit 22,112 - 30,796 -28.2% Dragged by investment gains/losses, noise items Investment Gains/Losses 9,407 - 17,311 -45.7% Includes $7.7 billion unrealized gains, not reflecting operations Insurance Underwriting 1,352 - 2,369 -42.9% Biggest drag, expected 1,470, missed Insurance Investment Income 2,7What will BTC do after being selected? Let's first look at the two historical instances.
On November 6, 2018, the weekly close was 6,450.
One month later it was 3,545, a drop of 45%.
One year later it was 9,039, an increase of 40%.
On November 8, 2022, the weekly close was 16,330.
One month later it was 17,085, an increase of 4.6%.
One year later it was 37,064, an increase of 127%.
Putting the two together, it looks like "long-term gains after selection."
I originally thought the short term would be the same, but after reviewing the data, I found the opposite.
One time it dropped 45%, the other time it rose 4.6%.
The difference is not in the selection, but in what was happening around it.
In 2018, it hit the last phase of a bear market, with December being the lowest point of the entire cycle.
In 2022, it coincided with FTX, and three days after selection the exchange ran into trouble.
So selection is not the main variable, just a point on the calendar.
What really determines the movement in the following three months is what else happened at the same time.
Back to the probability issue.
With only two samples, you can't calculate probability.
If someone gives you a "high probability of increase" number, that number is made up, not calculated.
Now it's 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, pressing down 4.7% overhead.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
Do you think this time there might also be a "side event" that hasn't been accounted for?
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One detail that taught me a lesson this week: the entire process of $BTC dropping from above 80,000 back to 75,000, the OKX perpetual funding rate almost stayed at 0.01%. I checked the records: on November 4th, when it surged to 81,200, the rate was 0.01%. On the 5th, it dropped about 6% in one day (from 80,300 to a low of 75,558), and each settlement period was still around 0.01%. The real cooldown happened after the 6th; the 4 PM settlement today even turned negative at -0.0004%, while the price had been hovering around 76,000 for two days with a 24-hour volatility of only about 1.8%. My understanding is: 0.01% is the baseline, and most of the time it just indicates that longs are paying "normal interest," which doesn't mean there's no overheating, nor is it a safety signal. The rate turning negative often happens after the drop, so using it as a bottom-fishing signal can easily lag behind. Now I prefer to treat the funding rate as a "confirmation" rather than a "warning": first look at the price structure and key levels, like whether the 75,000 area holds, then use the funding rate to see if sentiment has caught up. Do you usually watch the funding rate? Do you use it for decision-making or just as a reference? $QQQ
Nasdaq rebound: how to distinguish between a correction and a trend recovery?
On November 6 during the US stock market session, a chip rebound drove the Nasdaq higher; this information reflects intraday conditions and cannot be directly interpreted as a sustained trend. After concentrated selling, short covering can naturally happen quickly.
Growth stocks face both profit-taking and interest rate constraints simultaneously. If the rebound only restores valuations without new profit evidence, its sustainability depends more on risk appetite.
I observe whether the subsequent rise spreads from hardware to software and other growth sectors. If breadth improves and profit downgrades stop, the correction is more credible; if the rebound is concentrated and then volume increases again with a pullback, it should continue to be assessed as a high-volatility environment.$SEI
Parallel execution is one of the more interesting approaches to improving blockchain performance. Sei uses this architecture to process compatible transactions more efficiently while supporting EVM applications. However, speed alone cannot guarantee ecosystem success. Developer retention, application quality, network security, and genuine user activity will ultimately determine whether its technical advantages create a lasting competitive position.To be honest, there are three questions I haven't understood these past few days.
How did BTC surge to 81,196 in one day and then drop back to 74,888 in two days?
Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price fall by 10%?
SanDisk dropped 27% in three days, what is it falling over?
First, it rises fast and falls even faster.
On November 4, after the election results came out, BTC jumped from 75,736 to 81,196.
On November 5, it opened at 80,504, hit a low of 75,208, and closed at 76,088.
A 5.5% gain in one day was completely given back.
Second, Circle beat this quarter, but the market is looking at next year.
Revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but CRCL fell from 75.22 to 67.58.
The USDC supply is still shrinking; a good quarter doesn't mean the supply is coming back.
Third, SanDisk's drop isn't about the earnings report.
SNDK fell from 1,145 to 838, a drop of nearly 27%.
Storage stocks are being hit by expectations of AI capital expenditures.
Putting these three things together sums up as: rises rely on news, falls rely on capital.
The position isn't easy either.
Current price is 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, 4.7% above.
MA200 is at 73,240, 3.5% below.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
$BTC $LIT missed its takeoff, now it can only be watched quietly land
The daily chart has completely broken below the long-term uptrend line, and the 1-hour chart shows a waterfall-like plunge, with the overall trend fully turning bearish. This slight rebound now is purely an oversold correction after a sharp drop, a typical downward consolidation.
The most critical issue is the underlying data: the long position ratio is as high as 65%! With such crowded retail holdings, the main force will never lift the price to help them break even. The most likely scenario is a weak rebound followed by continued selling pressure downward to test lower support levels, completely washing out these long holders. The overall trend is lost; control your impulses and patiently watch the show.Last night's market reaction was interesting. Despite negative headlines, Bitcoin only dipped toward $74,800, almost exactly matching the September correction low. Ethereum also held around $2,207 without breaking its previous low near $2,170. But I'm not convinced the bottom is in. Here's why I'm still cautious: 1. The rebound hasn't proven itself BTC has fallen from $88,000 to $75,000, while ETH dropped from $2,880 to $2,200. These prices naturally attract spot buyers looking for bargains. 2. Seeing this made me a bit confused: The US sanctioned 8 Canadian currency exchange companies, saying they helped Iran convert rials into crypto assets. When a country's money wants to flow out, it has to rely on a few small shops in another country to handle it; this chain is much more rustic than imagined.
What's even more interesting is that at the same time, the community is arguing about KOLs pushing products and cutting leeks. Outside, the exit is being blocked; inside, everyone is scrambling to be the exit. $BTC didn't drop, what fell was that little bit of trust.
Honestly, I don't know whether to say the regulators are too diligent or human nature is just too exploitable.Bitcoin market is declining, but Open Interest is growing against the trend!
According to Glassnode data, during the recent BTC price pullback, the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased by nearly $1.5 billion.
This indicates that even as market prices continue to fall, traders are still opening new leveraged positions, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Notably, the continuous rise in OI during the decline may mean the market is accumulating more leverage risk. Once prices experience sharp fluctuations, forced liquidations of leveraged positions could further amplify market volatility.
Key points to watch next: BTC price trends, OI changes, and liquidation data.
Price decline and rising OI do not necessarily mean the market will continue to fall, but they do indicate accumulating risk.
Do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing, or bears adding to their positions?
#RocketLabQ3Neutron $BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations Next Tuesday (November 10) there are two major events on the same day: the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report is worth a separate look. It is now roughly equivalent to OpenAI's "meal replacement stock": it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment of $30 billion), and as of the end of March this year, the fair value of its OpenAI holdings was $79.6 billion, with an accumulated unrealized gain of $45 billion. The problem is that Altman confirmed in September that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, so this unrealized gain currently has no exit channel in the short term.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, SoftBank liquidated Nvidia holdings to cash out $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings to raise $16.25 billion; it is also carrying a $40 billion bridge loan due in March 2027; in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing "difficulty in pricing private equity." S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: it fell 7.9% on Wednesday, and intraday on Thursday it once dropped over 14%, with SoftBank's dollar bonds leading the decline among Asian investment-grade bonds.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI's valuation is accounted for, how much the LTV rises, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice.A sanctions announcement shifted the focus from Tehran to Ottawa. The U.S. Treasury Department named 8 currency service companies registered in Canada, accusing them of providing financial services for sanctioned Iranian entities: converting Iranian rials into crypto assets, then directing them to blacklisted Iranian exchanges and addresses related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The real highlight is the target. The U.S. did not escalate sanctions within Iran itself but instead targeted a geographically safer location to cut off this link’s transit points. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it bluntly—Canada cannot become a safe harbor for sanctions evasion.
On the surface, this message is aimed at Iranian funds, but in reality, it’s a warning to all cross-border service providers: if your node handles such money, even if registered in North America and with seemingly compliant client materials, you could one day be labeled as assisting evasion.
In the same time window, another accountability event unfolded within the community. On-chain detective ZachXBT reiterated his repeated criticism of KOL Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity coins, yet this round the gamblers still trusted him, allowing him a respectable exit liquidity.
Both incidents point to the same structure: money always finds a way out, and there are always sellers facilitating the exit. While states block cross-border gates and the market curses the promoters, demand remains unchanged, just taking a different route.
Where the next batch of transit points will move to is the latter half of this news. $BTC and $ETH feel no impact.$BTC
At 75,000, Wall Street also started pulling money out! $840 million outflow in two days, are institutions really not stepping in this time?
Farside data shows that on November 5 and 6, US spot BTC ETFs had net outflows of $430 million and $412 million respectively.
Including other trading days this week, the total outflow over five days is about $1.282 billion.
But looking at the details, things are quite interesting.
On November 6, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $42.8 million.
The same BTC ETFs, some are pulling money out, while others are still seeing funds coming in.
So it can't be simply explained as "institutions collectively running away."
However, overall buying is indeed weakening. BTC is currently still around $76,000, with a low touching $74,811, and the rebound lacks strength.
Short term will continue to be bearish, no rush to bottom-fish.
If 75,000 is broken, there is further pressure below; only if it climbs back above 78,000 and ETF fund outflows significantly narrow will we consider adjusting the outlook.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $TRX Short Setup
* Current Price: $TRX 0.31984
* Bias: Bearish / Short
* Key Resistance: $TRX 0.3250 – $0.3350
* Target 1: $0.3100
* Target 2: $0.3000
* Stop Loss: $0.3420
Analysis: After failing to hold gains following the spike to $0.37589, the daily chart for TRX/USDT shows lower highs with moving averages capping upside momentum. As long as the price stays below the resistance zone, expect a drift back down toward the recent low support near $0.3000. Institutions have pulled out 800 million, but I'm still holding firm at 76,000
To be honest, I’m a bit confused tonight — institutions are pulling out, yet the price stubbornly refuses to drop. Who exactly is holding it up?
On Friday, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 412 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for 403 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; November has already seen 1.28 billion outflows. But $BTC is currently at 75,982, down only 0.17% in 24 hours. Last night’s 74,888 low wasn’t broken, and 76,000 has been tested all day.
My inclination is: outflows are real, but someone is buying at 76,000. The outflows are real cash, but the price not dropping indicates strong support. On Thursday, the whole network exploded with 1.26 billion in longs, 1.12 billion of which were leveraged, and most of the leverage has been washed out, leaving those unwilling to leave.
On the flip side, we have to acknowledge: continuous institutional outflows are not trivial. If next week follows the same pace, 76,000 breaks down, 74,888 breaks again, the next stop is 73,000. Then holding on at this level will be a joke.
So here’s a straightforward question: do you think ETF outflows mean institutions are the first to run, 76,000 will eventually break, and now is the time to catch the falling knife? Or do you think outflows are just outflows, 76,000 holding means a bottom, and betting near 75,000 to rebound to 80,000?
Just a market record, not investment advice #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There is a key clause in the $AKE OKX Terms of Service: OKX may appoint "Affiliated Market Makers," who can make markets on the platform for their own accounts, hold positions opposite to those of users, and are under no obligation to act solely in your interest. The terms even explicitly state that user trades may be matched directly with these affiliated parties, and users agree not to claim against OKX for such transactions.$JUP
Aggregators sit between traders and liquidity, which gives Jupiter a view of much of Solana's trading flow. That position is valuable but not locked in, since users can switch routes in seconds. Its long-term story depends on whether it can add products beyond swaps while keeping that routing edge.$DOT
Polkadot pitched shared security for connected chains years ago, and the market has since offered many alternative designs. The architecture is still thoughtful. What remains uncertain is whether developers want its parachain model or prefer lighter options, and that gap shows up in ecosystem activity rather than in roadmaps.#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments The market is highly anticipating Berkshire's earnings report, with the core focus on changes in this "ammunition stockpile." Previously, cash plus short-term government bonds once approached a historic high of $400 billion, then slightly declined in the second quarter. The funds were mainly used to increase holdings in Google and boost share buybacks, without initiating a full-scale buying spree, maintaining an overall cautious stance.
There are two reasons behind the high cash balance: first, current US stock valuations are relatively high. After a surge in AI tech stocks, there are few large targets that meet Berkshire's return threshold; combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment, short-term debt yields attractive interest, making holding cash while earning coupon income a cost-effective defensive choice. Second, the insurance business needs to reserve sufficient liquidity to cope with catastrophic claims and other unexpected expenses, so this fund is not entirely "bottom-fishing capital" waiting to be deployed.
This earnings report focuses on three key points: month-over-month changes in cash, whether stocks are net sold or continue targeted accumulation, and the scale of buybacks. If cash surges again, it indicates Abel's judgment that market risks remain, which is a somewhat bearish "Buffett signal"; if cash significantly decreases and there is widespread buying of quality equity, it means institutional long-term funds recognize the prices after this round of adjustment. If only slight buybacks and sporadic accumulation occur, it indicates waiting for a larger-scale pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 5th, the market really panicked......
The exchange spot active trading volume difference (SVD) heavily shifted to the sell side, reaching the highest peak since the market rally started in August, and even surpassing the active selling pressure triggered by the Binance incident on October 30th.
Deeper sell-side dominance brought lower prices, and based on this, we cannot determine whether the buy orders have become thicker. Unless the next similar active selling pressure does not result in lower prices.
A Binance black swan event, a US stock market crash, two consecutive shocks in a short time have stretched the market nerves to the limit and dealt a significant blow to bullish confidence. Many people have started to doubt: has the bear market really ended? If the US stock market continues to crash, where will it take BTC?
People are often most afraid of the unknown darkness. This is when we need data to help us see more clearly. In my personal experience, it takes at least several weeks or even a couple of months for the market to digest panic sentiment; the probability of a direct V-shaped rebound is low.
For us, whether setting stop-loss points or finding entry points, this period requires close attention to changes in investor behavior, sentiment, and chip structure. If you are interested, you are welcome to join the subscription area for joint discussion, where more data will be synchronized in a timely manner.
Reposted from MurphyThe grid looked quite lively yesterday, but the underlying structure isn't as pretty as it seems on the surface. Can the profits and losses really prove the strategy's effectiveness? I watched that set of grid data for a long time yesterday: the spread grid pocketed 40u, the rebate was 20u, and the take-profit grid had a floating profit of over 100u. Just looking at these columns, it really seems like a little machine steadily spitting out candy🍬. But at the same time, the heavy position bet on SanDisk lost more than 10,000u, wiping out months of hard work in one go. This contrast is more worth seeing than any profit screenshot—it reminds me that the "liveliness" of the grid and the "structure" of the account are often two different things. First, let's break down the event itself. The grid profits from volatility and spreads, essentially making small profits frequently; the rebate is a subsidy from the exchange, an external infusion; the 100+ u in the take-profit grid is more like a paper profit, and it depends on whether it can actually be realized later. Meanwhile, the SanDisk position was a concentrated, large, directional bet, and losing over 10,000u directly swallowed up the previous fragmented gains. The problem isn't that the grid doesn't work, but that the position structure mixed in something completely opposite to the grid logic: one relies on discipline to capture small fluctuations, the other relies on conviction to bet on big directions. The cross-market linkage line is even more worth noting. SanDisk is a name in the storage chip chain, and its price sentiment will transmit through semiconductors, AI hardware, and risk appetite. If this sector continues to be favored, storage, computing power, and AI narratives in altcoins are easily dragged along; conversely, if the hardware side corrects, BTC and ETH usually hold up first, and the real bleeding starts with high-beta altcoins and these kinds of concentrated bets.Saw some impressive data today: Canton Network accounts for $320.7 billion out of the $366 billion "tokenized assets" on RWA.xyz, a clear leader by a wide margin.
Breaking it down, this $320 billion almost entirely comes from Broadridge alone — the financial giant handling U.S. Treasury repo clearing, which processed $7.5 trillion in transactions just in September.
More importantly, these assets are called represented, meaning they are only recorded on their own ledger and cannot be freely transferred on-chain.
So this is not "RWA on-chain"; it's basically traditional finance moving internal ledgers to a different place. Analysts also say Canton now acts more like a bookkeeping layer, not a distribution layer.
With a $320 billion volume, the network's daily fees are only $1.3 million. Next time you see a headline like "RWA breaks X trillion," first ask: how much of that can truly circulate on-chain?
#RWA #Web3 #CantonThe number of bulls does not equal money
I don't bet based on headcount.
Binance SOL perpetual has 78.31% of accounts long, OKX spot is $89.80, this ratio is not the proportion of bullish funds. Accounts vary in size; more people does not mean more money.
$SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.24%, with the first-level pair size about $15; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.15%. Small orders can probe, but volume expansion must look at deeper levels.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark price spread. Near-month annualized +5.55%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark price near-far spread is -0.07%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread is -1.34%. Without the first level, cost cannot be estimated.Three factors combined determine the current strategy: On 11-05, after a volume surge decline, the price downwardly engulfed the previous day's gains (bearish engulfing), confirming the distribution zone above 80,000 → overall bias is bearish. 74,500–74,900 is the quintuple resonance Gann lifeline (main cycle 1/4 + square 45° + April 2025 low + current low + BOLL lower band) → do not chase shorts at support. 76,270–76,530 and 77,320–77,530 are two Gann resistance bands → good short positions are only at the rebound to these resistance bands. Therefore, the strategy is: short at resistance, mostly trade after lifeline confirmation, no action in between. Today's (11-07 Saturday) execution checklist: Do not open new positions. The current price is in the middle of the range, liquidity is thinnest on weekends (1H volume only 141 BTC), orders will only lose profit to slippage. Set three price alerts: 74,500 / 76,550 / 77,320. Tomorrow (11-08) watch 75,432 (1x1 angle line next day value); if broken down, it turns weak, but do not chase shorts, wait for 74,500 to clear positions, then wait for Monday's US market $BTC. Monday to Wednesday (11-09 to 11-11) decision window: 11-10 = 300-day time window after 1/14 high; 11-11 = intersection of ascending 1x1 and 76,270 resistance band → price and time simultaneously reach a critical point. Actions may appear Monday/Tuesday with volume closing above 7This is a historic-level signal for BTC.
BTC mining difficulty has not returned to its peak for 374 consecutive days. The peak was 155.97T on October 29, 2025. The previous longest stretch in history was 364 days after the 2011 crash, followed by 253 days after China's mining ban in 2021. This time, 374 days, breaks the historical record.
What does this mean? From last October until now, for over a year, miners' computing power has been shrinking continuously. In June, the difficulty dropped to a low of 124.93T, 20% less than the peak. Although it bounced back to 148T in October, it is expected to drop another 3.7% on November 13.
Why is this happening? Three reasons: First, BTC prices are sluggish, miners are not profitable and have shut down; second, publicly listed mining companies are selling BTC and even shifting mining machines and electricity to AI computing power; third, after the Democratic midterm elections, data center restrictions are expected, worsening miners' outlook.
I have been trading for fifteen years, and this data is a contrarian indicator—miners surrendering and difficulty continuously dropping have appeared at every major cycle bottom in history. When miners can no longer hold on and shut down, it is often the darkest moment.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $AKE extremes will reverse; the shorts at the top have stretched the battle line so long, and the long leverage positions have all been liquidated. The remaining longs without leverage no longer care whether it falls or not. Further drops will only attract hungry wolves outside the market. Based on this, it can be inferred that currently, the stop-profit and stop-loss orders of shorts inside the market are more likely to be triggered. If you were the market maker, which side would you play next? Last night when the data came out, I had an open position.
October added 165,000 jobs, expected 65,000, more than double; unemployment rate didn’t rise but fell, from 4.2% to 4.1%. The narrative of "economic weakness, rate cut in December" that had been hanging around for half a year disappeared overnight.
$BTC was hovering around 75,500, but as soon as the data came out, it broke 75,000 directly, hitting a seven-week low at 74,762. This isn’t panic selling, it’s positions recalculating; if interest rates don’t come down, valuations can’t hold.
I’ve been trading for fifteen years; I’m not afraid of bad data, I’m afraid when data contradicts my own judgment. I didn’t buy the dip tonight. The batch of longs at 75,500 was cut at 74,600, the loss wasn’t big, but when the direction is wrong, you can’t hold on stubbornly.
I can’t guess whether rates will be raised in December, nor is it necessary. Just watch if 74,200 can hold; if it breaks, the next support is 73,000. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SPY
Is the strong non-farm payroll data a profit boost or valuation pressure for the broader market?
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, significantly higher than the average monthly increase of 48,000 over the past 12 months. Employment shows resilience, and corporate demand may not slow down rapidly, but funding costs may not decrease quickly either.
The broader market depends on whether earnings growth can offset discount rate pressure. During sector divergence, index stabilization may also mask operational weakness in most companies.
I focus on earnings forecast revisions and market breadth. If more sectors raise earnings and the number of advancing stocks spreads, the recovery is healthier; if a few heavyweights drive gains while yields continue to rise, the index performance alone is insufficient to prove that risks have been resolved.$BTC 50x long positions holding on waiting for a rebound, even if the price remains unchanged, nearly 30% of the margin will be eaten up by funding fees in one month.
OKX BTC perpetual contracts have settled funding fees 279 times in nearly 93 days, with 257 times positive, meaning longs pay shorts, accounting for 92%.
In the past 30 days, 90 times totaled about 0.56% (calculated by position notional), converted to margin:
· 3x: about 1.7%
· 10x: 5.6%
· 20x: 11.2%
· 50x: 28%
Each time is only about 0.01%, deducted every 8 hours, so few people take it seriously. This round just turned negative today (−0.0004%), but negative rates have only appeared 22 times in nearly three months.
Leverage longs are not waiting for a rebound, they are paying rent every 8 hours.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Memecoins aren't leading this leg down. They're cheapest to push.
$PEPE -4.55% on $19.6M; $BTC -0.5% on twenty times the turnover, a ninth of the move. Which means one percent costs PEPE $4.3M, $NEAR $7.3M, $XRP $18.6M.
I stay out before the open. I flip if PEPE prints $30M without a new low.
Cheap to push is cheap to bounce.
Fade it, or wait for the book?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$PEPE $NEAR $XRP
#Pepe #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins #BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $416 million this year. This is a critical turning signal: spot ETFs have long been a source of incremental funds since their launch, but now the funds have turned from positive to negative this year, indicating a general weakening in institutional allocation willingness.
The core pressure comes from the macro side: non-farm payroll data remains strong, the market has delayed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasury yields stay high, and the appeal of the interest-free asset Bitcoin declines. Institutions prioritize returning to U.S. Treasuries and cash for defense. Coupled with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, expectations for tighter crypto regulation have intensified, leading funds to reduce exposure in advance and increase risk-averse redemptions.
Structurally, differentiation is obvious: top products continue to see large outflows, but not all ETFs are being redeemed; some products still have small inflows, representing growing institutional divergence rather than a one-sided flight. Meanwhile, the pace of corporate treasury accumulation has slowed, weakening the buying force that originally absorbed selling pressure, thus weakening the supply-demand pattern and amplifying price volatility.
It is important to distinguish: the cumulative outflow scale this year is not extreme and has not reached panic-level stampede; it is more of a portfolio rebalancing. However, continuous outflows will suppress rebound heights, and each rise is likely to encounter redemption selling pressure. Going forward, key focus should be on U.S. Treasury yields, SEC regulatory developments, and weekly fund flows. If large outflows persist, it will further weaken the bulls' confidence.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $UP This is very likely a bull trap!
After a sharp rebound from a steep drop at a high level, although it looks fierce and has risen above the short-term moving average, the resistance from the previous high's trapped positions above is very heavy. As the price climbs, the bullish momentum indicator's red bars are visibly shortening, showing that the upward momentum is seriously exhausted.
Looking at the underlying chip structure, the long-short ratio is 1.05, almost evenly matched, and the funding rate is still positive. This means the bulls are holding positions at a loss, and the market has not formed an extreme situation where shorts are forced to cover. Without short squeeze as fuel, why would the main force kindly push the price up strongly?
The most likely scenario is a weak rally followed by a rapid pullback, continuing to test the real support below. The margin of safety for entering now is almost zero, and the risk-reward ratio is very poor. I absolutely will not chase the high to take the bag; I will patiently wait for it to pull back and stabilize on the right side, or break key support before going short accordingly.
Never catch a falling knife, even if its rebound looks very tempting.Tesla is considering a major product strategy adjustment; the once highly anticipated electric pickup, Cybertruck, may end its production cycle earlier than planned. According to the current disclosed plan, Musk intends to gradually stop Cybertruck production at the Texas factory starting mid-2027 and shift more capacity to the Cybercab project. Originally, Cybertruck aimed for annual sales of 250,000 units, but actual sales in the U.S. market in 2025 are only about 20,000 units, still far from the initial expectations. Regarding stock price, Tesla has recently experienced significant fluctuations. On Thursday, it dropped sharply by 10.77%, then rebounded about 4.2% on Friday, closing near $358. I believe this capacity adjustment may be an important step for Tesla to reallocate resources. Since product sales are below expectations, continuing to invest heavily in capacity may not be cost-effective; shifting resources to businesses with greater growth potential might be a more reasonable choice. But the real question is: can Cybercab become Tesla's next growth engine? Tesla's Q3 revenue was about $28 billion, but operating profit decreased by 56% year-over-year, showing significant profit pressure in the automotive business. Meanwhile, the development, testing, and commercialization of autonomous driving technology still require ongoing investment. Cybertruck at least has an actual sales foundation, but whether Cybercab can enter more markets and achieve large-scale operations in the future remains to be seen.Here's a harsh truth: Most people only hear about the Ahr999 indicator for the first time after they've already lost money.
Today, Bitcoin fell below 76,000, currently at 75,985 USD. The indicator dropped to 0.4310, re-entering the bottom-fishing zone below 0.45. In plain terms — by its own historical standards, it's considered cheap now.
But cheap can be deceiving. From the end of May to mid-August this year, it also stayed below 0.45 for 82 days. So entering the range and hitting the bottom aren't the same thing; there's a two-month-long ECG in between.
I'm not guessing the bottom; I'm planning to split the money for buying $BTC into several parts, buying a portion each time it dips. After all, historically it has stayed below 0.45 for 655 days, so no need to rush. With the midterm elections approaching, Hyperliquid risks are heating up. If the Democrats take Congress, it is highly likely to become a key investigation target. Not an outright ban, but legislative regulation, scrutinizing high-leverage perpetuals, US stock perpetuals, US user access, and HYPE token buybacks. The Bloomberg interview signals this clearly. Jeff changed into a suit to connect with Wall Street and cooperate with ICE, essentially to hedge in advance. Using ICE's compliance channelThe figure of 76,000 USD was rewritten today. Bitcoin is currently priced at 75,985.46 USD, Ahr999 has dropped to 0.4310, falling back below 0.45; the last time it was at this level was before August 20.
The indicator logic is not complicated: it compares the current price with a period's dollar-cost averaging cost and a long-term valuation anchor. The lower the ratio, the cheaper the current price is relative to the historically reasonable buying price. 0.45 is the line drawn by the market. Falling below it does not mean an immediate rise; it means that buying in batches changes from an optional choice to one with statistical advantage.
The time length is worth noting. From May 29 to August 19, the indicator stayed below 0.45 for about 82 days. The last time it entered the bottom-fishing zone was not a single spike but a window of more than two months. Historically, it has accumulated 655 days, which is a rare state and definitely not a short-term signal that ends in a few days.
The driving force is not internal to the crypto circle. The background of this round of decline is the retreat of AI trading in the US stock market, with liquidity being withdrawn from risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin. The pressure comes from external capital contraction, not from issues on-chain or in the ecosystem.
The judgment is as follows: long-term dollar-cost averaging investors can act here, but dividing the funds into several parts and spreading them weekly fits its historical pattern better than going all-in at once; for short-term traders, 0.4310 is not a buy signal, it only indicates that the downside space is relatively limited.
A point worth pondering: the indicator tells you whether it is expensive or cheap, but not how cheap is enough. The drop during those 82 days was even deeper. $SNDK
【Thinking about making ultra-short-term trades on SNDK this weekend? I advise you to stop!】
Brothers, if you want to make a little profit over the weekend, I think it's a bit risky. The screenshot shows a "market closed" status, no guidance from the spot market, it's all about contract funds battling it out. Weekend liquidity is extremely poor, and manipulative whales can easily spike the price up or down; you might not earn a single point, and your principal could be gone first.$BTC $ETH Brothers, this time I am bullish on Ethereum. Short-term sharp rises and falls can easily confuse people, so we must look at the weekly chart: in the past year, ETH rarely experienced a continuous 5-week decline with such a small drop; the recent decline has clearly narrowed, structurally resembling a bearish exhaustion. This is the heaviest position I've taken, holding to see a third wave rise. Similarly for BTC, its rhythm is usually half a beat slower than ETH—last night BTC hit a new low, but ETH did not break below 2200, and the relative strength already tells the story. My personal view: don't be scared off by daily noise; after weekly consolidation, ETH is more likely to take off first, followed by BTC. The key is whether ETH can break the previous high with volume.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 whether BlueBird deployment is beginning to translate into direct-to-device revenue through mobile network partners. The evidence needs to connect operational progress to a credible commercial route. Cash burn belongs in the same frame. Partner traction can validate demand, but revenue and funding needs will decide how durable the path to market looks. #ASTSQ3CommercialOutlNo matter how smooth the on-chain transfer story is, it cannot replace the coin listing announcement. TraderGauls is observing the potential Upbit KRW trading pair for $REZ as a catalyst, but it is currently just his speculation and has not been confirmed. I will not directly translate transfers from suspected wallets as the exchange having decided to list.
What can be publicly verified is that the Upbit data page already has a USDT quote for $REZ; this does not mean that a new KRW trading pair has been approved, nor can it confirm wallet ownership or future buying pressure. My personal observation is that the easiest time to chase in is often when evidence gaps are most easily overlooked.
I will wait for the exchange's official announcement, clear trading pair and opening time, combined with real transaction and liquidity assessment, rather than betting on rumors prematurely. If the announcement is delayed or wallet ownership cannot be verified, this catalyst hypothesis cannot be upgraded to an action basis; even if the announcement is made, the risks of a spike and retracement and slippage remain and it will not automatically become a good buying point.
Therefore, this is only kept as a clue to be verified, not listed as a confirmed opportunity, nor providing target gains. Will you first check the official announcement or first check the transaction depth? For discussion purposes only, not investment advice.$ONE rose 57%, but no one can clearly explain why it surged
ONE directly surged 57% today, jumping from 0.0011 to 0.00198, nearly doubling in one day. Trading volume expanded 21 times, from a few million to over twenty million dollars.
Interestingly, after the rise, mainstream media only gave one sentence as the reason, with no confirmed catalyst. So what is the market speculating on? After some research, two explanations were found.
First is transformation. Harmony is preparing to shift fromConclusion first: The most conflicted aspect of $LINK right now isn't the price, but the three sources of funds working against each other.
① Whales are buying. On November 7, a whale address withdrew 57,000 LINK in 4 transactions from Binance within 18 hours, about $612,500, transferring them into its own multisig wallet (OnchainLens 11-07).
② Official reserves are still increasing. The Chainlink official reserve page shows that on November 5, another 94,523.58 LINK were added, bringing the reserve size to 6.57 million LINK, about $70.8 million, with an average cost of $11.26—higher than the current price of $10.81.
③ But ETFs are seeing outflows. On November 6, LINK spot ETFs had net outflows, while on the same day ZEC had net inflows of $1.77 million.
Wallets: 24-hour spot trading volume was 5.62 million LINK (about $60.8 million), 2.2 times the perpetual volume of 2.55 million LINK (about $27.6 million). This drop wasn't caused by leverage blowing up; it was real money changing hands. Perpetual positions stand at 2.169 million LINK (about $23.47 million), with funding rates near 0.01% for almost 8 periods, meaning longs are paying.
10.49 is this week's low, 11.26 is the official cost price. Do you think whales are building positions at 10.8, or distributing around 11?$SNDK Stock Split Countdown: Both Bulls and Bears Await November 20
SanDisk closed at $835.06, rebounding 3.55% in a single day, but still down over 27% in the past week. Intraday volatility ranged from $816 to $912, showing fluctuations have yet to settle.
Less than two weeks remain until the 1-for-8 split takes effect: record date is November 9, new shares issued after market close on November 19, and trading at split-adjusted prices begins November 20. The split itself does not change fundamentals but will attract more retail investor attention to this stock.
Divergence is growing. Consensus among 25 analysts is "Buy," with an average target price of $2,024, but the range spans widely from $870 to $3,000. The bullish case remains data centers; the cautious side points to Kioxia's NAND average price quarterly increase dropping sharply from 70% to 25%, with price softening already seen in consumer channels.
On the eve of the split, it's not about who is more optimistic about AI, but who can better withstand the volatility. $XAG The silver market has recently shown a pattern of volatile rebound. On November 6, silver futures rose about 5.5% for the week, ending a three-week losing streak. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data pushed the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on silver and causing a pullback.
1. Macro factors: The U.S. labor market performed strongly, fueling market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. A stronger dollar pressures precious metals. Yet geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide safe-haven support for silver.
2. Industrial demand: Silver is widely used in photovoltaics, electronics, automotive, and AI data centers, supporting long-term industrial demand. However, the photovoltaic industry is reducing silver usage per unit product, partially offsetting demand growth.
3. Supply and demand: The World Silver Survey expects the global silver market to experience a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of about 67 million ounces. The tight supply situation remains fundamentally unchanged.
Overall assessment: The long-term supply-demand structure of silver remains supportive, but short-term fluctuations are heavily influenced by the dollar, interest rate expectations, and changes in industrial demand, so market volatility may continue. Going forward, focus on U.S. inflation data, Fed policy, and global silver inventory changes. #日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%
The Democrats scared AI with one shout, and Goldman Sachs immediately raised its forecast?
The incoming Texas governor called for a “pause on data centers,” and the Nasdaq dropped 6% in a single week, the AI momentum index recorded the fifth largest drop in history, and data center CDS premiums soared to a record high.
As a result, Goldman Sachs turned around and raised its 2026 construction spending forecast from 67 billion to 80 billion, 2027 to 100 billion, and for the first time gave a 125 billion forecast for 2028.
In short, the market is trading on “political noise,” while Goldman Sachs is calculating the “money already spent.” The 86GW project has already broken ground, corresponding to $300 billion in spending, of which $200 billion has yet to be spent.
These five swing states together account for 42% of the capacity under construction, with Texas alone accounting for 26%, but Goldman Sachs insists: the pause order is a delay, not a termination.
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 4.2%, Nvidia +2.78%, but US power company AEP only fell slightly by 0.19%, not really joining the rally. Chip stocks are recovering from overselling, not clearing regulatory risks.
What really needs attention are those highly leveraged data center developers, with rising financing costs and leases that may be torn up; this is the first thing likely to explode in this round of regulatory tightening.