Orbit Post Sitemap
Seeing the net outflow of BTC spot ETFs this year, it's easy to casually conclude: institutions have stopped buying.
But looking into the details of different funds, the situation isn't so straightforward. On November 4, IBIT saw an outflow of about $201 million, while FBTC had an inflow of about $237 million, and the total across all products was still a net inflow. On the same day, some were withdrawing while others were buying; the term "institutions" can't encompass all traders.
This is also why I am becoming more cautious about ETF headlines. The total amount is worth watching, but internal differences are equally important. Different holders, different allocation rhythms, or even just choosing different products can make the data of a single fund look particularly striking. You can't guess the motivation behind each fund flow just by subscription and redemption amounts.
As of November 5, the net outflow over the first four trading days of the week totaled about $870 million, so the pressure does exist. But the latest trading day's data might still be updated, so declaring the buying completely disappeared based on incomplete data is a bit premature.
What I care about now is whether outflows can happen simultaneously across multiple funds and then gradually narrow down to a few products; on days with net inflows, whether BTC can hold its gains. Continuous selling pressure needs to be taken seriously, and the performance of the funds stepping in to buy is also worth watching. Putting these details together is how you truly understand where the market is vulnerable.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 The most frustrating part of this nonfarm payroll report is that even the weakness from the previous two months has been partially revised away.
October added 165,000 jobs, significantly above expectations; August and September combined were revised up by 84,000. Those who were discussing "the economy is about to collapse" based on the old data now have to recalculate. Coupled with a 0.4% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, the Federal Reserve has more confidence to continue observing, and the market hoping for a quick easing of monetary conditions will likely have to wait longer.
However, there is an uncomfortable detail in the report: the number of people working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs or have had their hours cut increased by 339,000. Companies are still hiring, but the quality of some jobs is declining; these two things can happen simultaneously.
My understanding of the increased bets on a rate hike in December is that the market is withdrawing its previously too-easy assumptions. A single employment report is not enough to decide the next meeting; subsequent inflation data still carry weight.
For BTC, this environment is the most taxing. When economic data is strong, funds worry about interest rates; when data is weak, they worry about risk appetite. Rather than rushing to label the nonfarm payroll as positive or negative, I care more about whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields can sustain their reactions after the data release. Ultimately, prices have to bear the cost of capital after repricing.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Part of the positions in the market are experiencing pullbacks, while another part is riding the trend to gain profits. Today, three meme tokens simultaneously started moving, but the driving factors pushing them up are independent of each other. Many people ask if they can follow along; breaking down each catalyst along the timeline makes it easier to see which supports can continue and which are just short-term pulses. The ARB staking proposal has already been approved by vote, locking 100 million tokens into the staking mechanism, directly consolidating part of the circulating supply. This catalyst has gained institutional recognition and is not purely driven by sentiment speculation. However, the price remains in a low range, and there is a gap between the proposal's implementation and the market's realization, making it suitable for small spot positions to lay in wait; chasing highs should not be equated with a trend reversal. PEPE's change comes from on-chain holding records; Sun Yuchen's position value has surpassed 50 million USD, and the celebrity's holdings combined with prior overselling have formed a rebound. This round of upward movement is driven by sentiment, and after the hype fades, a sharp pullback is likely, so it is suitable to hold a very small position as a lottery ticket, not as a mainline layout. DOOD's rally relies on the consensus brought by an established NFT project and is a market movement driven by sector rotation without new fundamental news as support. Its volatility is very wide, fitting only a short-term, quick in-and-out trading approach, not suitable for long-term holding. These three tokens correspond respectively to narratives of supply consolidation, hot holdings, and sector rotation. Having suffered heavy losses and liquidation experiences in such tokens before, I have learned to... Many people have this feeling: when BTC rises, altcoins don't move; when BTC consolidates sideways, altcoins also don't rise; and when BTC falls, altcoins actually fall the fastest.
The reason is that capital rotation usually follows an order: first BTC, then ETH, then mainstream altcoins, and finally small-cap coins. During a decline, the order reverses: capital first withdraws from small-cap coins, then from altcoins, and finally returns to BTC for safety.
So altcoin rotation is not "not your turn," but rather the market's risk appetite hasn't reached that stage yet. If BTC and ETH are unstable, altcoins are unlikely to sustain a rally. Even if individual coins spike in the short term, they are more prone to rapid pullbacks.
To participate in altcoins, at least consider three conditions:
Whether BTC is stabilizing;
Whether ETH is recovering with volume;
Whether the target coin has real trading volume, capital inflow, and community activity.
Without these three conditions, the so-called rotation is likely just a bull trap.
#山寨 #BTC #ETH #行情观察$BTC
After strong employment data, why can't Bitcoin just focus on the rebound of the US stock market?
On November 6, the US reported an increase of 165,000 non-farm payrolls in October. The weakening employment resilience reduces the market's bets on rapid easing, and Bitcoin still faces funding cost constraints.
With the stock market closed over the weekend, crypto assets continue trading, and there may be a time lag between cross-market hedging and spot support. I am more concerned whether the rebound is driven by spot buying or amplified by contract position increases.
If the US dollar and real interest rates strengthen, yet prices continue to hold the retracement zone, it indicates improved support; if the rise is accompanied by leverage buildup but spot lags behind, the stability of the rebound will be compromised.Falling from 124 to 88 in just one month, all the positive narratives couldn't lift the market at all. Is it because the market cap is too large to rally? There are rumors that mainland China is investigating SOL's advertising in Shanghai. Positive news doesn't help it, but it drops at the slightest negative news! It won't go back to 60 in June, right? $SOL Last night the employment numbers came out just as I was wrapping up. October added 165,000 jobs, while outside estimates only dared to guess 50,000 to 60,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2 to 4.1. The data is undeniably strong, but my first reaction wasn’t happiness—the more orders, the more the platform takes a cut first; when the market improves, money tightens first, it’s all the same logic.
The US dollar surged to around 102.3, the strongest day since mid-September. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed back above 4.86, and gold was pressed down to 4056. The December rate hike blame, 80 to 85 percent of people are betting it will hold more steadily.
US stocks showed mixed signals: the Nasdaq rose just over 1%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded more than 4%, AMD rose over 10%; but the Dow was in the red, dragged down by consumer staples and financials. The weekly numbers are more telling: the Nasdaq fell more than 3% for the week, the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 5%. Thursday’s drop can’t be made up in a day.
Crypto is the most direct. Bitcoin once touched 74,780, the lowest since August 21, now hovering around 75,600. Over 1 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, nearly 90% on the side betting on a rise. The fear index is 28, close to extreme fear.
Today is Saturday, the stock market is fully closed, thin trading. At times like this, I usually don’t open new positions; gas money and energy need to be saved. Pretty numbers don’t equal easy accounting, don’t you think?
Personal record sharing, not investment advice.In ten minutes, the trading volume expanded 28 times. This just happened to $WLD on Binance perpetual contracts.
Here are the specific numbers: nearly $93.44 million traded in the past 24 hours, while the price dropped 2.48% during the same period. Volume expansion is usually a good sign, but this time the volume soared to the sky while the price went down — this combination itself is more worth noting than the 28 times figure.
Normal volume-driven price increases mean new money is coming in to grab chips. Volume-driven declines represent a different structure: some are unloading large amounts, while others are continuously absorbing. When these two sides collide, the trading volume can be pushed to dozens of times the usual. This kind of market depth does not indicate optimism, it only shows that disagreement has suddenly increased.
After the disagreement widens, there are usually two paths. One is shorts covering and bulls taking over, volume continues to expand, and price recovers upward; the other is that those absorbing can no longer keep up, volume quickly shrinks, and price steps down again. The difference is not in the volume itself, but whether the price holds during those few minutes when volume shrinks.
Therefore, 28 times should not be taken as a buy signal. It is a warning: this asset has now entered a high volatility state, and stop-loss levels are more easily breached than usual.
Thinking one step further: out of this $93.44 million, how much is real directional opening, and how much is just the same batch of funds colliding back and forth in the market? Volume only tells you how much trading occurred, not who is winning. That is why experienced traders watch volume, but pay more attention to the volume-price coordination the next day.ETH has already broken away from its original correlation rhythm, while ZEC remains stuck within the old correlation framework. The volatility difference across these cryptocurrencies is currently the clearest reading on the market. ETH's volatility has declined first, no longer following the market pulses, which means the main source of volatility on this correlation chain has been removed. After the link loosens, ZEC's volatility is no longer constrained by ETH's rhythm synchronization; its own volatility percentile is gradually moving away from the recent normal range. If the correlation continues to fail, volatility will not immediately explode but will first be compressed at a low level, continuously narrowing the short-term swing range. Volatility compression often lags behind correlation breakdown and will not release a move at the moment of decoupling. The position corresponding to this observation is a 20x short position on ZECUSDT perpetual contracts. This setup is not a bet on a guaranteed one-way decline but a bet that after the correlation breaks, volatility will preferentially release along the downward channel. The premise for this hypothesis to hold is that ETH maintains a weak correlation state; if it synchronizes and strengthens again, the entire logic fails immediately. When compression reaches its final stage, it only takes one breakout beyond the range to rapidly increase amplitude. There is no need to predict in advance which direction the breakout will go, only to confirm whether volatility has broken through the swing boundary of the past week. Once the boundary is breached, the long-accumulated momentum will release along the breakout direction. Pull up the 24-hour amplitude panels of ZEC and ETH, compare their difference, and verify whether the correlation decay has deepened further. ZEC $EFor me, no matter how tempting the odds are, it's useless if I can't bear the cost of being wrong. Today's crypto market fear and greed index dropped from 28 to 25, down 3 points, entering "Extreme Fear"; $BTC is currently at $76,055, down 0.07% in 24 hours.
My judgment is: this news explains sentiment more than it confirms a bottom. Fear deepens, but the price hasn't simultaneously plunged, indicating a temperature difference between sentiment and price performance, yet it doesn't directly imply that selling pressure is exhausted. The index also doesn't provide information on capital absorption; just relying on 25, you can't calculate the rebound probability.
According to my speculation, if fear continues but the price no longer weakens, the scenario of a bottoming out is more worth attention; if the price starts to accelerate downward, the so-called good odds may just be underestimating the risk. I will watch whether sentiment and price continue to diverge and won't use a single reading to boost my confidence.If I were to write a strategy, I would first set a rule: if the coins redeemed by the team are only distributed to members' wallets, record it as a change in chip ownership, without directly labeling it as bearish. Newbies are most afraid of mistaking "visible transfers" for "predictable intentions" 🤖
According to PANews citing Ember Monitoring, the Hyperliquid development team HyperLabs previously redeemed 179,706 $HYPE tokens from staking, worth about $14.49 million, which have been allocated to 6 team member wallets.
I think this news is useful for chip observation but tends to be overestimated for price judgment: allocation does not equal selling, so you cannot directly infer new selling pressure; the amount is eye-catching, but without the proportion of holdings, it is hard to judge the weight. The loophole in the rule is that waiting for the purpose to be clear before judging may cause a slow reaction. If this allocation is written as an observation condition, would everyone set the threshold based on the proportion of the team's holdings or the proportion of circulating supply?BTC在7.6万美元附近暂时稳住，ETH和SOL也停止了连续下跌。但市场并没有因此恢复信心。 美国10月非农新增16.5万人，前两个月就业数据合计上修8.4万人。经济数据并未明显走弱，BTC却依然没有重新站上8万美元。 更值得注意的是，美国ETF资金数据出现了重要修订：11月5日BTC现货ETF最终净流出扩大至4.30亿美元，ETH净流出接近1亿美元。此前看起来相对温和的赎回压力，实际上比初报更加严重。 与此同时，恐惧与贪婪指数降至25，进入极度恐惧区间。稳定币供应继续收缩，Solana链上交易活动降温，但Ethereum和Base出现局部正向资金流动。 今天的市场出现了一个值得思考的现象：价格停止下跌，资金却没有全面回归。 这究竟是市场正在构筑底部，还是大规模去杠杆之后的短暂平衡？ 📉 市场：BTC企稳7.6万美元，恐惧指数降至25 截至11月7日约11:30 HKT的CoinGecko行情快照： BTC报75,958.86美元，24小时上涨0.10%。 ETH报2,246.01美元，上涨0.20%。 SOL报90.39美元，上涨0.20%。 全球加密市场总市值约2.65万亿美元，The easing of the US-Iran situation is triggering a round of "inflation cooling—rate cut expectations" macro trades, but this is more of a backdrop rather than a direct buy signal for crypto assets. The current market pricing of geopolitical easing has outpaced reality, risk budgets are actually contracting, and funds prefer to reduce exposure first rather than chase high-volatility assets.
BTC has fallen from 80835.62 to near the current price, indicating that the transmission chain of macro benefits to the crypto market is temporarily blocked: the repricing of the dollar and real interest rates has not yet translated into a stable increase in liquidity, and profit-taking pressure comes first. At this time, it is not advisable to equate the "easing narrative" directly with price appreciation.
75208.42 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding this level gives the market the condition to re-trade rate cut expectations, and risk assets like ETH and SOL may also get a rotation window; once broken, the short-term narrative of US-Iran easing will lose price support, and macro clues can only revert to potential benefits.
$BTC $ETH $SOL What does it mean when the price drops, volume increases, and OI rises simultaneously?
In the cryptocurrency derivatives market, if the price keeps falling while volume increases and open interest (OI) also rises, many traders immediately conclude that the bears are dominating the market and the downtrend may continue.
This interpretation has some reference value but should not be taken as a definitive trading signal. The combination of these three indicators needs to be understood in the context of market structure and actual trading conditions.
First, what does a price drop represent?
A price drop indicates that the overall transaction prices within the observed period are declining, but this alone cannot explain all the reasons behind the decline. The market may be influenced by spot selling pressure, derivatives trading, changes in risk appetite, or other factors.
Second, what does an increase in volume indicate?
An increase in volume means trading activity is more active. If volume rises simultaneously with a price drop, it means more trades are occurring during the decline.
However, every trade has both a buyer and a seller, so increased volume does not mean all new funds are shorting, nor does it directly prove that sellers will continue to dominate in the future.
Third, what does a rise in OI mean?
A rise in OI usually means the number of open contracts is increasing, indicating that the scale of outstanding derivatives contracts in the market is expanding.
The simultaneous occurrence of a price drop and rising OI may suggest that new positions are being established during the decline. But based on these two indicators alone, it is impossible to determine whether the new positions are from longs or shorts, or which side is bearing the risk As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out, the US dollar went straight to the moon, but our crypto market's blood was completely drained.
Last night when the data was released, the simple summary in five words: The dollar went crazy!
US non-farm payrolls surged by 165,000 in October, far exceeding the expected 65,000. Such strong employment means the Fed not only has no chance to cut rates, but the possibility of rate hikes has flared up again. The result is the dollar soaring wildly, and US Treasury yields spiked directly to 4.85%.
This is definitely a draining heavy blow to the crypto market.
The logic is straightforward: US Treasuries offer a risk-free 5% interest just by holding, so who would want to risk licking wounds in the highly volatile crypto market? All the money flows to risk-free yields, instantly drying up liquidity in the market. Without incremental funds, the market naturally cools down. Many leveraged traders get liquidated with even a small dip because liquidity is drained and there’s simply no one to take the other side.
What to watch next? Keep a close eye on these three things:
1. Whether 7.5K can hold.
2. Whether spot ETF fund flows can turn from negative to positive.
3. The Fed’s final decision on December 10.
As long as US Treasury yields don’t come down, the crypto market will most likely continue to oscillate and bottom out. Brothers, control your hands, don’t get overexcited, and definitely don’t rush to go all-in bottom fishing. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The nonfarm payrolls data for October in the US last night was simply a "nuclear-level" negative surprise.
With 165,000 new jobs added, that's more than double the market expectation of 65,000! Even more frustrating, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%. This shows that the US economy is not cooling down but rather heating up, and the labor market is incredibly tight.
Fed officials like Daly seeing this data won’t dare to ease up easily. So the dollar index surged sharply, and bets on a December rate hike skyrocketed instantly. This is basically a clear signal to the market: rate cuts? Dream on, there might even be another hike by year-end.
For us, the logic is closed. As rate hike expectations heat up, US Treasury yields must soar, global liquidity continues to be drained, and risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks will face pressure. Last night, US tech stocks plunged, and Bitcoin struggled around 76,000 — all because of this data.
In terms of strategy, just one sentence: absolutely do not catch a falling knife now. CPI data will be released next Monday, and the macro chain of shocks is not over yet. Those holding low-position chips should hold their base positions firmly; those without positions should keep watching the show and wait until this wave of panic is completely cleared and Bitcoin has fully dropped. Stay steady, don’t get carried away. $BTC When meme coins are rising, seriously asking whether the chips are concentrated or if the pool is deep enough sounds like a buzzkill. I can understand it—staring at floating profits on the account, who wants to hear others tearing down their gains? But the same questions before the rise are called due diligence, and after the rise, it becomes "you're just panicking because you didn't buy in." I don't expect to convince meme players with valuation talk, but if you can't even ask whether you can sell or not, how can we have any conversation at all?#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
US stocks finally rebounded on Friday, with the AI industry chain as the main driving force. The Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.31%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.46%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2%, AMD rose over 11%, Nvidia nearly 3%, Micron Technology over 5%, temporarily easing the previous concentrated sell-off in tech stocks.
However, it is important to note that a single-day rebound does not mean the risks have been eliminated.
This week, the Nasdaq fell a total of 3.4%, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline; the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, recording its worst weekly performance in over a year.
I believe the core of this adjustment is not just short-term panic but the market beginning to reassess the investment returns of the AI industry.
On one hand, policy changes after the US midterm elections have raised concerns about stricter regulations on data center construction; on the other hand, increasing AI infrastructure investments have brought attention to financing costs, capital expenditures, and high valuation issues.
Meanwhile, the US October nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, showing labor market resilience, but also further reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, adding extra pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. $BTC $BTC Overall market summary for this week in one sentence:
Sentiment-driven sell-off, expectation repricing, and collective deflation of risk assets mark a typical "data reverses expectations" shakeout week.
All the price movements this week revolve around two main themes:
Non-farm payroll data blew past expectations → Fed rate hike expectations restart
Market instantly repriced
- December rate hike probability sharply increased
- US Treasury yields rebounded, dollar strengthened
- Interest-free risk assets under comprehensive pressure
This is the fundamental reason why BTC and altcoins continued to weaken this week.
At this stage, remember the latest market rules:
✅ Early war phase = risk appetite killed (crypto market falls)
✅ Rising inflation + rate hike expectations = continuous suppression of crypto
KOSPI plunged and triggered circuit breakers
The core issue is not just sentiment but weakening expectations for the AI industry chain.
Market main tone: oscillating bottom building, repeated shakeouts
Rate hike expectations + geopolitical uncertainty coexist, no unilateral big bull market will appear
Whether US Treasury yields continue to rise (determines overall market strength)
Whether Middle East tensions escalate further (determines sudden black swan events)
All big losses this week came from holding positions, betting on reversals, and heavy speculation.
Weekend final summary
This week marks the market's shift from loose monetary fantasy → back to reality and tightening
All declines are macro expectation corrections, not random dumps
Next week will still be a choppy market of bottom grinding, shakeouts, and deleveraging
Don't rush to bottom fish, don't rush to expect a reversal
Be patient: only when rate expectations stabilize, sentiment steadies, and positions clean up will a true trend market arrive.
Protect principal during oscillations, make big money in trends ETH and SOL entering ETFs, do they have to be spot baskets? ARK took a detour this time.
ARK ETF Trust has filed registration documents for the ARK Tokenized Market Infrastructure ETF with the SEC (around 11/6). It is actively managed, usually allocating at least 80% of its holdings to companies related to tokenized market infrastructure—tokenization platforms, stablecoin issuers, exchanges, brokerages, custodians, and settlement networks.
For ETH and SOL, the approach is a "total return swap linked to US-listed crypto ETPs"—an indirect exposure, not holding the tokens directly nor those ETPs directly. The ticker and management fees have not been disclosed yet, and the registration is not yet effective.
Key point: filing ≠ approval ≠ spot ETF launch. This is a sidestep wrapped in infrastructure narrative, don’t confuse it with "another ETH/SOL spot ETF got approved."
Confidence: media + SEC registration disclosure (Wu Shuo, etc.); filing ≠ effective ≠ guaranteed approval. What do you think about these "indirect exposure" products? Will retail investors buy in, or are they more like side dishes on an institutional menu?
$ETH $SOL $SNDK followed the chip stocks' rebound all night, then fell back down?
Last night, US chip stocks collectively counterattacked: AMD rose 11%, Intel up 7.7%, TSMC up 6%, and SanDisk rebounded to around 910, but today it fell back below 850. It's really like going back to square one overnight.
SanDisk looks unlikely to rebound strongly because it fell too hard before, yesterday's rebound was too weak, and concerns about the storage cycle peaking remain. The gains last night in AMD and TSMC are related to AI computing power, not storage. The storage price decline cycle has just begun, and SanDisk is still the most hurt.
Moreover, the selling pressure above is too heavy. From the previous high around 1400 down to 950, all are people who tried to bottom-fish midway and got stuck. Once the price goes up, they sell.
In terms of strategy, still look to short on rebounds. The US market is closed over the weekend, so no real action. If on Monday's open it rebounds to around 880-890, you can lightly short one position!
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫
The boss has something to say
I saw the KOSPI circuit breaker this morning and immediately linked it to last night's US stock market crash: KOSPI fell more than 8% at the open, briefly dropping below 5000 points, triggering the 11th circuit breaker of the year, with trading halted for 20 minutes. Semiconductor heavyweight stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged collectively, and Japanese tech stocks also came under pressure. This is the first domino of the US AI sell-off spreading to Asia.
My interpretation is: the circuit breaker itself is an emotional extreme, not a fundamental collapse. But it indicates one thing—the global semiconductor industry chain's risk appetite is contracting simultaneously. From the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to Samsung and SK Hynix, from CoreWeave to IREN, the market is repricing AI capex. For the crypto space, this is not a direct bearish signal for BTC, but a global retreat in risk appetite: when all high-beta assets are sold off together, BTC is unlikely to remain unaffected.
BTC is currently around 74800, with narrow fluctuations on Saturday. My approach: after the KOSPI circuit breaker, there is usually a technical rebound, but this does not mean a trend reversal; 75000 remains resistance, with support around 73000. Don't rush to buy over the weekend; wait for the Asian circuit breaker sentiment to settle and for the US market to open on Monday before deciding the direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $LIT
Breaking news says Lighter's buyback pushed LIT up 26% in a week. I checked CoinGecko, 24.98%, just one point off, doesn't affect the conclusion.
Today is even more interesting. At 09:00, the one-hour volume was 173,000 contracts, over four times the previous 40,300, price pulled from 3.358 to 3.4636. Then for the next two hours, volumes were 129,000 and 109,000, price hovered between 3.45 and 3.49, never touching 3.516 again.
Perpetual positions are $24.6 million, thicker than its daily spot volume of $14.88 million.
The buyback story continues, today's volume seems to have consumed the morning spike. I can't chase at 3.49, waiting for the next move.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 💻 I want to break down this message as a code review. The input is: Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated in a CNBC interview that the AI investment boom is far from over, and increased Token usage may tighten computing power supply again, driving up related prices. This is a judgment, not a result that has already occurred.
My view: This message should remind people more to pay attention to delivery bottlenecks rather than just boosting the entire AI sector. Logically, increased usage will raise computing demand; but the potential bug is equating Token growth directly with computing power shortage, overlooking efficiency improvements. If efficiency gains can absorb the new demand, then the shortage expectation might not materialize, which is my speculation.
If it were me, I would change the review criteria to: beyond demand growth, also see if supply can be realized. The material also mentions that many U.S. states and local communities want to advance investments and strengthen AI safety regulations according to their own conditions; welcoming investment does not equal smooth project launches. I will continue to monitor delivery constraints and not rush to extend the hype.$ZEC
Within the ±1% order book, buy orders only total $12,700, while sell orders are $21,900, heavily one-sided. The depth is so thin that a single large order can move the price by fifty dollars.
This morning's quick news said ZEC spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.77 million in one day. Comparing that to OKX's spot trading volume in the last 24 hours, which is 89.92 million, that amount is enough for 2%.
Perpetual positions remain at $180 million without any reduction, and the fee rate is still stuck at a zero premium of 0.01%. The price is 1330, 57 dollars below last night's high of 1387, with only 540 coins left this hour, less than 30% of the volume at around 9 o'clock.
The ETF channel is real, but the money hasn't arrived. I'm not adding.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $XRP has been the worst performer these past two days, with Coinglass reporting 1.178, down 3.5% in 24 hours, and down 36% year-to-date. Pressuring it is the Binance hack. Elliptic said that since November 5, hackers have split the stolen funds into dozens of new addresses, swapping about 42 million XRP and approximately $50 million via THORChain, mostly converting to BTC. There are still 192 million XRP and $226 million untouched, which could be dumped at any time.
The buying side hasn't kept up either. According to SoSoValue data, the US spot XRP ETF had zero inflows for three consecutive days from November 3 to 5, with only $18.8 million inflow for the entire month of October. On November 4, Binance saw an outflow of 418.5 million XRP, the largest in nine months, possibly including internal transfers, yet the price did not recover.
Retail investors are bottom-fishing in contracts; Binance's long-short ratio is 3.01, OKX's is 4, but funding rates are only 0.0044% and 0.0012%, less than half the benchmark, indicating many participants but no increase in funding. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $8.32 million, with longs accounting for $7.78 million. Contract funds saw a net outflow of $730 million over 30 days.
The 61.8% retracement level at 1.21 has been lost; the next support is at 1.11. The initiative is in the hackers' hands. Part of the remaining 192 million XRP is frozen, or the ETF might bring in new funds. Only a recovery above 1.21 can stabilize the price; hackers might swap the entire amount while no one is taking it, and the long-short ratio above 3 is the fuel. The 1.11 level will likely be tested. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The source of funds for AI-related investments is shifting from operating cash flow to external financing. This change makes me want to add it to the watchlist even more than the "crisis probability." Another background in the material is that the US stock market gains have already crossed the asset price threshold, but corporate leverage is still rising moderately. I think the change in financing structure is a warning sign, not yet a crisis confirmation.
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if reliance on external financing continues to increase while corporate leverage accelerates, then raise the risk watch level, rather than sounding the alarm just because stock prices are rising quickly. 🤖 A common mistake I make as a quant newbie is treating a striking signal as a complete strategy.
The advantage of this rule is that it focuses on where the expansion money is coming from. According to my speculation, if new investments rely more on debt support and operating cash inflows cannot keep up, then when the financing environment tightens, companies will face greater pressure to adjust investments, and the sentiment in related sectors may also be affected.
The loopholes are also obvious: external financing is not all debt, and debt maturity and repayment arrangements cannot be lumped together. Looking only at financing scale may misjudge normal expansion as dangerous. What I want to focus on next is whether the financing structure matches cash inflows, to complete the conditions first before talking about alarms.To pour some cold water first, seeing "net outflow," I actually want to remind the shorts not to get excited too quickly. I usually look for risks first, but reading this message directly as "institutions are fully retreating" is not supported by enough evidence. My judgment is somewhat negative, but far from enough to define the trend.
According to Farside Investors data, on the U.S. trading day of November 6, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $51.7 million, with Bitwise BITB outflowing $20.5 million and ARK 21Shares ARKB outflowing $20.1 million. I am reluctant to over-interpret this for two reasons: these two products contributed the bulk of the outflow that day, so the combined figure can easily mask distribution differences and cannot be directly extrapolated to all products facing simultaneous pressure; this data reflects the buy and sell directions of traditional institutions and U.S. stock investors through ETFs, which does not equal the entire $BTC market's capital situation, and single-day data cannot answer how long the selling pressure will last.
Of course, the bearish side could also be right. If subsequent net outflows continue and expand in scope, while prices weaken in support, I will raise my alert for weakening demand. These are my observation conditions, not facts that have already occurred. What I will watch next is whether the outflow spreads and continues, rather than writing a script for a negative number in advance.A data center project originally intended to sell electricity to Google was ultimately bought entirely by Google.
Crusoe's project in southeastern Wyoming was not yet completed before it was handed over to Google. Google plans to invest $17 billion to take over and continue development; the acquisition price was not disclosed by either party. The project was announced in 2025 by Crusoe and Tallgrass, supported by Blackstone, with a planned power capacity of 10 gigawatts.
The key point is that Google's role changed. Initially, it was a potential customer negotiating to buy computing power; later, concerned about construction costs and timelines, it simply took over the project to manage it itself. This indicates that in the AI race, renting computing power is less advantageous than controlling it, and ultimately controlling computing power means controlling electricity and land.
Crusoe just completed a $3.9 billion financing round in September this year, with a valuation of about $30.9 billion. It still has projects in Amarillo, Texas, building for Google, and has previously served Oracle, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta. Selling unfinished projects does not mean there are problems; it is more like converting heavy assets into cash flow to continue taking orders.
For the market, $BTC and $ETH are only indirectly related to this news. What is truly validated is the long chain of AI infrastructure: electricity, civil construction, and server leasing. Decentralized computing narratives like $TAO are not on the same scale as a 10-gigawatt physical project.
It is worth considering: large companies are starting to buy suppliers' projects to do them themselves. For small and medium players, is the remaining space more segmented or more marginal? Ethereum's fork became a legend, while CORE's fork only became a cautionary tale
Both crises were triggered by major vulnerabilities, but Ethereum's hard fork became an industry classic, whereas CORE's vulnerability handling process ultimately serves only as a risk warning in the public chain arena. The core difference lies in the foundation of consensus and ecological strength.
After the 2016 DAO incident, the Ethereum community engaged in intense discussions, with miners, developers, and exchanges collaboratively reaching consensus to recover the stolen assets through a hard fork. At that time, Ethereum had already attracted a large number of developers, providing fertile ground for continuous iteration. Subsequently, it introduced Gas burning through upgrades, establishing a token value capture system. After weathering the storm, its ecosystem grew stronger and stronger.
In contrast, CORE's reward vulnerability created a huge amount of phantom tokens. The project chose a soft landing approach and did not replicate Ethereum's hard fork rollback path. With only 21 nodes, its decentralization foundation was weak, and community cohesion was insufficient; on-chain Gas revenue was minimal, the protocol lacked self-sustaining capabilities, and with exchanges gradually delisting it, liquidity continued to shrink.
Whether a crisis leads to rebirth or continued decline does not depend on whether a fork or soft landing is used, but on whether the project has enough ecological consensus to support it. Ethereum was tempered into a legend by crisis, while CORE's case reminds investors that grand BTCFi narratives cannot cover up the fundamental economic model and liquidity flaws.Unconsciously, another week has passed, and this week the market was again a brutal one, with countless liquidations. The amounts have been wildly plundered due to theft incidents and the midterm election market turmoil!
The recent market success rate is average; a few trades hit stop loss. With good position control, a 10-20% retracement is reasonable, but anything over 30% definitely indicates poor position sizing!
$BTC continues to focus on whether the effective support at 75000-75500 holds or breaks, which will directly determine the subsequent trend!
$ETH support at 2150/2095/2010
Resistance at 2403
Pay attention to key points 2215 and Bitcoin at 75500 for a strategic play;
XAU last night greatly exceeded expectations in the nonfarm payroll data, increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike at 3:00 on December 10; this is a major bearish factor for XAU, but the price remains relatively firm, likely reflecting the bearish news already priced in. XAU has been falling for over two months, with many expectations already realized; next week, focus on the support strength at the 3900/3970-4000 levels;
SNDK's Friday close indicators slightly recovered, avoiding further violent declines. Strictly speaking, 800 is definitely a profitable level; if it falls to 500-700, that's a bargain, and after the close on the 19th, there will be a stock split; however, the downside space is now very limited;
Trading advice does not constitute any investment basis: For SNDK, if afraid of missing out, you can buy some spot at 800; if it falls to 500-700, buy in batches; if it falls below 500, go all in. For Bitcoin, buy some spot.‼️#Attention Kurumi Index‼️
"FX Warrior Kurumi (FX戦士くるみちゃん)" started airing on October 1, 2026, with new episodes every Thursday, totaling 12 episodes for the season.
As of November 7, 6 episodes have aired. On 5 of the 6 broadcast days, the market declined; $SOXL only rose on the day of the first episode. The average decline on broadcast days is about 11.23 percentage points lower than the average change on other trading days.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% My first reaction was not "another compliance benefit," but rather to look into the accounting behind the rules. People tend to see the implementation of the tax system as the industry getting a pass, but I think the real test for on-chain applications is just beginning.
The Greek Parliament has passed a cryptocurrency tax framework: starting January 1, 2027, annual net cryptocurrency gains exceeding 500 euros will be taxed at 10%, while staking, crypto lending, and DeFi income will be taxed at 15%. My judgment: this is not a universal positive for the on-chain income sector.
Looking at it from another angle, first, different income types correspond to different tax rates. If users compare after-tax returns, the attractiveness of some on-chain products might be discounted—this is my speculation. Second, income paid in tokens must be taxed based on the euro price at the time of the transaction, so frequently claiming rewards could increase bookkeeping burdens. Clear rules do not mean easy usage. What do you think affects ordinary Greek users more: the tax rate or the bookkeeping cost for participating in staking? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.Local communities welcome AI investment but want to advance on their own terms. This detail makes me calculate risks first rather than imagine price appreciation potential. Tom Lee also judges that the AI boom is not over, and demand growth may tighten computing power again.
My view is that this is generally positive for the AI narrative, but it doesn't mean all related assets have good odds. I speculate that if local conditions and safety regulations slow down new supply while demand continues to grow, then the side with existing available computing power is more likely to benefit; the side waiting to expand to realize income may instead bear delay costs first. In the same shortage, profits and risks may not fall on the same group of people.
I will not directly equate "tight supply" with a higher chance of price increase. If prices have already priced in the expectation of a rise, no matter how hot the story is, the expectation may not be worthwhile. Next, I want to see if there are changes in project implementation constraints; don't treat every bottleneck as a positive.In this downturn, ETH is clearly weaker than BTC. The reasons are not singular but rather multiple layers of pressure stacked together.
The first layer is capital preference. When risk declines, capital tends to retreat to leading assets like BTC, and ETH, being a riskier asset, is more likely to be reduced first.
The second layer is ETF sentiment. If ETH spot ETFs continue to see outflows, short-term confidence recovery will be slower.
The third layer is on-chain activity. When L1 Gas fees are low, the ecosystem narrative lacks short-term catalysts, making it harder for the price to strengthen independently.
The fourth layer is altcoin correlation. Without ETH stabilizing, the entire ecosystem and altcoin sentiment will be suppressed.
In the short term, for ETH to recover, it must at least reclaim around $2300 and see volume and sentiment warming up simultaneously. Otherwise, any rebound might just be short-covering, and its sustainability is questionable.#AI Giant Financing Watch: Microsoft and Meta Issue Bonds Totaling $40 Billion
Microsoft $25 billion, Meta $15 billion, totaling exactly $40 billion — subscription orders exploded, Microsoft oversubscribed by 4.6 times, Meta nearly 4 times. But old Mo advises you not to just look at the words "rush to subscribe," rushing to subscribe does not mean cheap; this is called "demand exchanged for higher interest."
Microsoft's long-term bonds maturing in 2066 have a coupon of 6.35%, with a spread 1.05 percentage points higher than Treasury bonds; even more painful, AAA-rated Microsoft’s 30-year spread is actually higher than that of lower-rated Procter & Gamble. Meta’s 2033 bonds have a coupon of 6.25%, with the 30-year yield reaching 7.5%, and S&P has directly changed the outlook to negative. The spread on high-rated tech industry bonds has widened from 0.76% at the beginning of the year to 1.08% — the market is repricing AI credit risk.
The subscription frenzy means there’s nowhere else for money to go; the widening spread is the market’s true attitude.
BTC is trading in the 75,500-77,500 range, the rising AI credit costs will continue to suppress risk appetite for tech stocks, making it difficult for Bitcoin to remain unaffected. Those with positions should set stop-loss below 75,000; those without should wait for a pullback to 75,500 with reduced volume and stabilization before watching further. Don’t take "successful bond issuance" as a bullish signal to chase higher. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Beginner's Diary｜Is Solana also competing on "millisecond-level" speed? ⏱️
Flipping through Solana Foundation's October ecosystem report: On October 9, the network's target slot time was reduced from the original 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds; on October 21, Alpenglow was activated on the mainnet, adopting a new voting protocol with a target finalization time of about 150 milliseconds.
Let's first remember two differences 👇
1️⃣ A slot is the time unit the network uses to schedule block production; finalization refers to the stage where a transaction confirmation becomes harder to reverse, so these are not the same metric.
2️⃣ These are protocol targets, which do not mean every transaction can be completed within 150 milliseconds, nor does it necessarily mean wallet displays or exchange credits will speed up accordingly.
3️⃣ The upgrade is a change in network infrastructure and does not automatically mean the token price will rise.
Source: Solana Foundation October ecosystem report. When you use it daily, do you care more about speed, fees, or stability?
Learning check-in, not investment advice $STABL is expected to unlock 889 million tokens early tomorrow morning, worth over $22 million, yet the coin price has still dropped about 7% in the past 24 hours.
Here's the situation: according to the unlock schedule, at 3:19 AM Beijing time on November 8, Stable will release a batch of ecosystem and community tokens, which accounts for nearly 5% of the current circulating supply.
What's more interesting is that STABLE is currently around $0.025, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $6 million. The value of the tokens planned to be unlocked this time is already more than three times the daily trading volume.
Of course, unlocking doesn't mean an immediate dump, but where these chips ultimately flow is definitely worth paying attention to.
Stable itself is building stablecoin payment infrastructure, focusing on using USDT to pay for Gas. But the problem lies here: users don't need to directly buy STABLE to use the network; it mainly serves staking, network security, and governance functions.
Competing with mature networks like Tron and Ethereum, low fees alone aren't enough; there needs to be real payment transaction volume.
And even if business grows, it doesn't mean STABLE will automatically get equivalent buy-side demand.
I think there's no need to rush to bottom-fish STABLE for now. Let's first observe the exchange inflows, trading volume, and actual selling pressure after the unlock, and make a judgment once the tokens have been mostly absorbed.
#AST SpaceMobile's Nov. 9 Q3 call will test whether BlueBird deployment is beginning to translate into direct-to-device revenue through mobile network partners. The evidence needs to connect operational progress to a credible commercial route.
Cash burn belongs in the same frame. Partner traction can validate demand, but revenue and funding needs will decide how durable the path to market looks.
#ASTSQ3CommercialOutlook My long position 😭
Anthropic is starting its roadshow next week, and the potential buyers' psychological price has dropped from 2 trillion at the time of filing to below 1.5 trillion, with some still pushing it down. The ticker is ANT, aiming to list on Nasdaq in mid-November, cutting a quarter off the valuation in a month—this pace is even faster than when they release new models themselves.
Pushing the price down isn't without reason. Investors who came in during the May round had a cost of 965 billion; if the offer is any lower, it would mean an immediate loss upon listing, and no one can bypass that threshold. The prospectus shows revenue in the first nine months increased twelvefold year-over-year, yet it still couldn't push the price up. In this situation, the pricing power is in the hands of the buyers.
AI stocks just rebounded for one day on Friday, and the Nasdaq weekly chart is still in a continuous decline. At times like this, asking people to sign at a trillion-level price is tough.
#Anthropic IPO估值預期降至1.5兆美元 What caught my eye first wasn’t the 82 million, but rather "New York is not in the coverage area": digital wallets were distributed citywide, yet the Wall Street financial district’s table was left empty 😂
This made me feel that the positive news was amplified by the "large device count." Just because USDC appears on a phone doesn’t mean users can immediately make payments; regional restrictions indicate compliance and actual usability remain barriers to widespread adoption. For ordinary people, whether they can easily deposit and spend is more critical than how many phones are covered. The account also supports Samsung Pay, bank cards, and ACH funding, with fees varying by transaction.
If coverage expands later, convenient deposits might lower the usage threshold; but until then, I’ll treat it as infrastructure testing and won’t equate 82 million directly with user count. Which standard do you choose: usable on the phone, or truly usable in your region? Don’t let the wallet live in the phone but get stuck at the neighborhood gate.BTC's continuous rebound is weak, and institutional funds are still withdrawing. Can the weekend stop the decline and repair?
Recently, many retail investors have been waiting for a rebound in BTC, but the price has consistently lacked sustained upward momentum. Those wanting to buy the dip fear further declines, while those holding positions worry about pullbacks. What the market truly lacks is incremental capital.
From ETF data, institutional funds have not shown obvious inflows recently:
November 2: Net outflow of $399 million
November 4: Net inflow of $74.6 million
November 5: Net outflow of $430 million
After a brief inflow, large outflows appeared again, indicating that institutional buying has not yet resumed.
Next, focus on two key signals:
1. Whether ETF funds can end the continuous outflow and return to sustained net inflows.
2. Whether BTC spot trading volume can expand, showing real buying support rather than relying solely on contract-driven rallies.
A technical repair may occur over the weekend, but blind chasing of gains is not recommended before institutional funds return.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Let me pour some cold water first: I'm not very convinced by the narrative of "last time the bottom was caught successfully, so this time we should follow the bullish trend." According to Ember monitoring, this whale who bought 10,376 ETH at an average price of $1,626 in June, after 5 months, spent 19.7 million USDT to buy 8,775 $ETH at a transaction price of $2,245. What worries me more is that the market might interpret a single buy order as "expert validation."
I have two reasons. Buying cheap in the past only proves that the entry point was good then; it doesn't prove an advantage in judgment this time. Using past achievements to endorse new decisions easily turns probability into certainty. Secondly, a single address willing to increase its position doesn't mean the market is willing to keep absorbing the supply. If bystanders are just driven by the label "bottom-fishing whale," then the speed of emotional amplification might outpace the real growth in demand. This is my speculation, not a result that has already happened.
Of course, the other party might be right, and I don't need to nitpick just to be bearish. If we later see more independent buy orders continuously absorbing supply, and prices strengthening beyond just revolving around this news, I will raise my assessment of demand improvement. My reminder is: first verify whether the buying interest is spreading; don't hand out prophet certificates to big holders prematurely. Nonfarm payrolls at 165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000. Bitcoin broke through 75,000 that very night.
The October nonfarm payrolls released at 21:30 last night showed an increase of 165,000 people, two and a half times the market expectation. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and hourly wages rose 0.4%, also exceeding expectations.
The market immediately raised the December rate hike bets to nearly 80%, and the US dollar index recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly five months.
Bitcoin’s lowest point in the early morning hit $74,921, the lowest since August 21, and this morning it returned to about $75,875. The spot ETF saw an outflow of about $430 million, and the derivatives market’s single-day liquidation exceeded $1 billion.
Interestingly, the US stock market was not afraid to follow; the Nasdaq rebounded 1.09% on Friday, AMD rose 11% in one day, and Micron rose 5%.
Honestly, this drop is not just about the crypto circle itself; it’s because rate hike expectations have returned, and crypto took the first hit.
At this position, I’m not in a hurry to add positions. If it can’t hold above 75,000, adding more is just giving money to the market.
I’ll add more when it recovers above 76,400 to take a look. If it falls below 74,888, I’ll admit my mistake and leave. I won’t act before next Tuesday’s CPI release.
Until rate hike bets cool down, 75,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There have always been people hoarding Ethereum in this market, but big holders hoarding $LINK are quite rare 😆
Address 0xBA2…aB9ff has accumulated 740,000 LINK (82.3 million USD) and 3046.68 $ETH (69.2 million USD) in the past five days, spending a total of 15.15 million USD; currently holding 787,000 LINK, after replenishing the position the cost was reduced to about $11.24, currently floating a loss of 366,000 USD
Wallet address 0xBA29c9b8df2fB387605863EC7195d36e3eDaB9ffWhen I read this kind of news flash, I always want to add a data dictionary to it. The biggest fear when coding is not having wrong fields, but misreading their meanings; it's the same when looking at market data—price interfaces cannot be directly treated as valuation interfaces.💻
The input for this review is: Odaily Planet Daily citing MSX.COM data, $APP up 10.3% in 24 hours, currently at 389.9 USDT.
My judgment is that the valuation information in this message is very limited. There are two logical bugs: the unit price alone cannot directly indicate whether something is expensive; supply volume must also be considered; the increase percentage cannot be directly converted into capital inflow, as different trading depths mean the same buy orders can cause different fluctuations. I would handle the price, valuation, and capital fields separately without automatically linking them.
If I were to revise this news flash, I would prioritize adding circulating market capitalization and trading volume to reduce misinterpretation. If you could only add one field, which would you choose? Please help me review if this logic misses anything else?Texas tightens grid connection. Where is IREN's 2GW?
IREN's AI cloud revenue this quarter is $200 million, and Microsoft's first phase has already started contributing revenue.
At Sweetwater, the first phase substation is powered on, the data center is still under construction, and the entire park's 2GW still needs to pass this round of Texas verification. The company plans to deliver the first batch of data centers in Q4 2027. #IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182% On the night of the non-farm payrolls, I was watching the market closely and felt a sudden jolt in my heart. But is the real focus not that spike-and-fall candlestick? The US added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly three times the expected 59,000; the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%; average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month; and the previous two months were revised up by about 84,000. Once the data came out, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December rose from about 70% pre-market to around 79%. This is not just "the economy doing well," but it pushes back the expectation of "rate cuts arriving sooner." But what I care more about is the derivatives line. BTC first surged to 76,100, then slipped back to around 75,900, with average volume and a funding rate of only about 0.006%. This combination is very subtle: the price didn’t crash, leverage didn’t go crazy, indicating that bulls didn’t collectively add positions after the data, and bears didn’t aggressively press down. The market isn’t trading direction, but rather "who breaks first." On the spot ETF side, there was a net outflow of about $430 million on the same day; Fidelity FBTC saw about $200 million outflow, BlackRock IBIT about $105 million, with a cumulative outflow of about $870 million through Thursday that week. Hotter employment combined with ETF redemptions narrows the margin for risk appetite, but BTC still holds above 75,900, which looks more like a fragile balance before a squeeze rather than a trend reversal. On the altcoin side, no decent support was seen, indicating funds are not using this data to trigger high volatility spread. The bullish path: if around 75,100 holds, funding rate doesn’t heat up, and shorts cover, the price can be pushed back to 76 BTC short-term strategy suggestions:
Short position (80000+ holdings): Move stop loss to 77,500, target 74000→73000→72000
Short position (for those not yet entered):
Currently at 75940, no new short positions (too close to 74791, insufficient space)
Wait for a pullback to 77000-78000 (resistance zone above the 11-6 rebound high of 76278) → short, stop loss at 78500, target 74000→72000;
Or wait for a break below 74500 (with volume, hourly Delta below -500 million) → chase short, stop loss at 75500, target 73000→72000
Bottom fishing (absolutely forbidden): 74791 is not a bottom. Even if this is the ultimate bottom, the first rebound after capitulation #2 is often a "dead cat bounce" (rebound to 77000-78000 then falls again)
Risk control iron rules: Stop loss for short positions at 77500; stop loss for chase shorts at 75500; no new positions between 74500-77000
Current status (75940): Technical rebound period after capitulation #2. The market is conducting a "pressure test" above 74791—if 74791 holds and breaks through 77000 with volume, this is one of the best bottom-fishing opportunities of the year; if 74791 is broken, then 72000-73000 is the next target
$BTC #星球日报 BTC dropped to a low of $74,888, then bounced back above $75,000. Over the past few days, the market has been waiting for the results of the U.S. midterm elections. After the results came out, BTC briefly rebounded above $80,000 but was quickly pushed down again. The real trigger for this decline may not be in the crypto market. On November 5, the U.S. tech sector experienced a sharp sell-off, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.5% and the semiconductor index dropping 12%. BTC was not spared; over $1 billion in crypto leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs bearing the brunt of the impact. More troublingly, the U.S. October employment data released on November 6 showed an increase of 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000. The stronger the job market, the less reason the Federal Reserve has to rush into cutting interest rates. This is not good news for BTC. Institutional funds have also shown divergence. On one side, Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 811 coins this week, spending about $65.5 million; on the other, Keel Infrastructure sold 2,520 BTC, and Hut 8 reduced holdings by 2,148 BTC. The two companies sold a total of 4,668 BTC, far exceeding Strategy's purchases this week. Changes in mining companies are also worth noting. Core Scientific recently disclosed that its BTC holdings decreased by 816 coins from previous levels, now down to only 32 coins. This reflects that some mining companies are readjusting their asset allocations. Therefore, the current market is not all large capital