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After reviewing $ETH this week, my biggest impression is: there's too much noise, and actually only three signals.
First, macro. The Federal Reserve has moved from "whether to raise" to "how to raise," with the 165,000 nonfarm payrolls pegging the December rate hike at an 80% probability. As long as this pricing isn't lifted, ETH can't rally alone. Watch the 10-year yield and the dollar index; they're more accurate than watching the candlesticks.
Second, capital. The ETH ETF this week showed an "ECG" of "+53 million one day, -100 million the next," with BlackRock's ETHA being the bleeding point, while Fidelity and Morgan Stanley are buying. Don't be fooled by the cumulative 12 billion figure; look at the daily net flow sign. The day it turns positive is when institutions nod again.
Third, on-chain. 45.2 million staked, 1.37 million queued to enter, 13,000 queued to exit, BitMine holding 6.06 million dead coins but still staking 86%. These are slow money, the cement at the bottom, not rocket fuel.
As for the midterm elections, Warren, WLFI buybacks, Binance's 6.3 billion, Russia opening the floodgates—these are just emotional waves that wet you but won't drown the market. The one thing I learned this week: during a rate hike cycle, living through it is more important than guessing right. Keep your position light, withdraw coins, don't go long, and wait for CPI and the December FOMC meeting to choose the direction for us.
See you Monday. I'll buy under 2200 if it drops, and I won't chase if it rises. $ETH Tomorrow is the CPI release, and I've already made two preparations in advance for my position.
A reminder: On the evening of Tuesday, November 10, the US October CPI will be released. This is the most easily underestimated data point in this round.
Setting the background: September core PCE month-on-month was 0.3%, already stuck at expectations, previous value was 0.2%; oil prices are still fluctuating around $98, the Middle East remains unsettled; although the one-year inflation expectation of consumers dropped from 4.7% to 4.3%, it is still much higher than the 3.4% two months before the Iran conflict. In other words, the foundation of inflation hasn't cooled down.
The market is currently pricing in: an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, with the first hike of 25 basis points, and possibly a second one; TD Securities even bets on a cumulative 50 basis points hike early next year. If CPI exceeds expectations, this probability will rise to 90% or even higher, pushing the 10-year yield further up, and the ETH weekly chart will have to test the lower edge of 2200. If CPI unexpectedly comes in low, it will be a rare breathing window, and the trapped positions around 2300-2400 will be shaken out.
What am I doing? No leverage, placing small buy orders below 2200, sell orders above 2400, and no action in between. I don't touch options; for this kind of event-driven volatility, market makers inflate implied volatility ridiculously, buying in is just giving away money.
One more detail: According to the range given by 21Shares, BTC's lifeline is between 76,000 and 78,000, and ETF inflows only look above 80,000. ETH follows it, so don't be smart and bet on an independent rally.The Paradox of $ETH ETH: The More Locked, The Cheaper It Gets
There is a piece of data I have looked at three times repeatedly, and the more I look, the more I feel ETH is currently in a particularly twisted position.
On-chain: The total staked amount is 45.2 million tokens, accounting for more than 30% of the circulating supply. There are 1.37 million tokens queued to enter, waiting 24 days, and 13,000 tokens wanting to exit, which clear in one day. The network-wide staking yield has diluted from Lido's early 4.5% down to 2.2%, yet the queue to enter remains blocked. This is a "voting with your feet" long-term belief.
Market: The US ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of over $1.2 billion in October alone, and since January this year, only two months have seen net inflows. The historical cumulative net inflow of one product, ETHA, dropped from 11.7 billion to 11.6 billion, then fluctuated to 11.614 billion, with daily inflows and outflows in the hundreds of millions. The ETH/BTC exchange rate slid to 0.029, close to a three-month low.
On one side, coins are locked up, neither generating yield nor being sold; on the other, traditional channels are taking money out. This is not a contradiction; these are two groups telling different stories with different money: the on-chain group bets on "Ethereum as the world’s settlement layer," while the ETF group bets on "this thing following tech stocks." The former’s money is slow, heavy, and stubborn; the latter’s money is fast, light, and afraid of interest rate hikes.
My current judgment is that as long as the staking queue remains long and the exit queue short, the long-term bottom won’t look too bad. But when the price will rise depends on the ETF money turning net inflow again—only when these two indicators align in direction will the real market rally begin. When to buy during a bitcoin bull market: when unsophisticated tourists who local top blasted are capitulating and realizing losses, out of fear. $BTC$ETH ⑦ Russia opens the floodgates for retail investors, but this news has been completely ignored by the market
Over the weekend, I came across a news piece that didn’t really trend, but I think it’s worth much more than the WLFI buyback.
According to TASS, the Russian central bank has set a crypto whitelist open to "non-qualified investors": Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT—just these three. The related directive takes effect on November 17, allowing exchanges to publicly circulate these three assets. Note, this means "retail investors can buy directly," not institutional pilots or mining legalization.
How to estimate the scale? Russia’s foreign exchange retail market turns over hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Even if only a single-digit percentage is diverted in, for ETH—whose daily trading volume is already quite thin—this represents solid buying pressure. More importantly, USDT and ETH are released together—this means an official channel for on-chain ruble deposits and withdrawals has been opened.
Of course, don’t get too excited; this is a slow-moving variable, not a catalyst for a Monday pump. Sanctions, exchange rate controls, and how many accounts can actually be opened remain unknowns. But in a bear market, I specifically look for these "policy from zero to one" signals: they don’t change tomorrow’s price, but they determine whether someone is quietly accumulating at the bottom. At the 2243 level, someone is watching—not just us. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ETH The small amount of ETH I hold, I've been debating whether to sell it for a whole week
Let me be honest, not pretending to be an analyst.
I added to my position around 2300, currently floating at about a 3% loss, not terrible, but it feels uncomfortable. On Thursday, ETH dropped from around 2400 to 2236, my phone popped up seven or eight liquidation alerts, my hand was hovering over the sell button, but I didn't press it. Not because I was that determined, but because I glanced at the on-chain data: total network staking has piled up to 45.2 million tokens, with 1.37 million tokens queued for staking, needing over 24 days to activate, while the exit queue only has 13,000 tokens, which would clear in just over a day.
This is where I'm most conflicted. ETFs are bleeding, BlackRock is facing redemptions, yet on-chain people are locking ETH in. The annual yield has been diluted to 2.2%-2.6%, but some are still willing to give up liquidity for that interest. BitMine is even more extreme, holding 6.06 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the network, with 5.227 million staked, earning $358 million annually, and its stock price is discounted to 0.88 times net asset value. They'd rather spend $45.9 million to buy back shares than buy more coins — because buybacks are more cost-effective than buying coins.
See, even smart money hasn't figured it out. So my current approach is: don't sell below 2200, sell one-third above 2400, and play dead in between. Leverage? I will never go long during an interest rate hike cycle in this lifetime.$ETH The midterm election stone hasn't finished falling yet
Many people thought the "blue wave" drop ended on election day, but I actually think the toughest phase is just beginning.
The Democrats took both houses, and Trump became a lame duck. The market's first reaction was relief—BTC fell below 76,000 on election night, then quickly bounced back above 78,000. Bitcoin options traded $660 million in notional principal that day, with $420 million in calls alone. But the next day, tech stocks crashed and wiped all gains. Why? Because everyone suddenly realized one thing: Elizabeth Warren is very likely to become chair of the Senate Banking Committee.
Anyone involved in crypto knows who Warren is. She has already sent subpoenas targeting the Trump family's crypto business. WLFI dropped another 8% after election night, down more than 70% from its yearly high. The project team hurriedly announced a buyback, but didn't even dare to disclose the scale—would you call such a buyback bullish?
Looking at legislation: The CLARITY Act failed a Senate procedural vote 49-50 in September this year. Now that Democrats control both chambers, Duke, the regulatory expert, said "this bill is dead," and even insiders predict it won't be revived until 2028. The stablecoin line might still pass with bipartisan support thanks to the Genius Act, but the "crypto-friendly" policy dividend is definitely over. $ETH ETF drama: $53 million inflow one day, $100 million outflow the next
I have to say, watching the flow of ETH spot ETFs is more stressful than watching the candlestick charts.
SoSoValue data shows: On November 4th Eastern Time, nine ETH ETFs combined net inflow was $53.02 million, ending five consecutive days of net outflows. ETHA alone took in $32.75 million, looking like institutions were turning back. But what happened? On November 5th, it flipped completely, with a net outflow of $99.9677 million for the day. ETHA itself saw $75.2 million outflow, and even BlackRock's staked ETHB lost $21.98 million. Total net asset value dropped from $13.3 billion to $13.039 billion, and the historical cumulative net inflow was pulled back to $12.016 billion.
In short: this is not a retreat, but a "retreat while watching." BlackRock's ETHA was redeemed by about $1.4 billion throughout October, accounting for over 70% of the market's daily withdrawal volume. Interestingly, the money didn't go far—Fidelity's FETH is quietly taking over, and Morgan Stanley's MSSE is also seeing small net inflows. Big institutions are changing seats, not leaving the market.
My own understanding is that the ETF channel has now become a thermometer of sentiment. As long as ETHA can turn positive over $30 million in a single day, no need to hype the price, it will move on its own. Conversely, if there are two consecutive days of net outflows over $50 million, don't bottom-fish, your hands will get dirty. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ETH 2236 — is this a step forward or just a breather?
It's the weekend, and ETH is hovering around 2243, basically holding the tail of Thursday's big bearish candle in its mouth without spitting it out. Don't be fooled by the calm market now; it's quiet because the US stock market is resting, not because the drop is over.
Looking at the candlesticks: on November 5th, OKX hit a low of 2236, dropping 7.23% in 24 hours, even harsher than BTC's 5.32%. That day, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, marking the largest single-day market cap evaporation ever — about $2.5 trillion gone. Crypto was dumped along with other risk assets into the trash. According to CoinGlass, 238,600 people liquidated $1.254 billion in a single day, with $1.11 billion from long positions — meaning most were leveraged traders betting on a "post-election bad news fully priced in rebound" who got crushed.
Right now, I'm watching the 2200 line. It's not superstition; it just happens to be near the August rally starting zone and just below the price on November 4th when the ETF suddenly turned positive. If it breaks below 2200, there's no support underneath, so we have to consider 2100 or even lower; standing back above 2300 would mean half of that day's panic has been swallowed back.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so don't be fooled by fake spikes. The real confirmation will come when the US stock market opens on Monday and the CPI data on Tuesday night. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $MSTR : A CRITICAL WEEK AHEAD 🚨
On November 11, MSCI will decide to remove MSTR from its indexes
Potential selling pressure:
• $2.8B in direct sales
• Up to $11.8B including index-tracking funds
mNAV 1 is currently around $114
I’m planning to close my short near that level and flip long 👀
$BTC $ASST$OPENAI is valued at $1.25 trillion.
OpenAI has just completed the first round of its latest financing, raising about $11 billion, with a valuation as high as $1.25 trillion.
Please note the following points:
The total amount of this round of financing may reach $20 billion.
The initial goal was to raise over $30 billion, with a valuation of $1.4 trillion.
Investors participating include Coatue Management and T. Rowe Price, as well as many other large funds.
In March 2026, OpenAI raised $122 billion, with a valuation of $852 billion.
Although the valuation continues to grow strongly, the need to adjust financing targets indicates that investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the AI industry.
This information is for reference only, intended to provide data and personal opinions, and is not investment advice. Simulating 10,000 times, 83.5% of people can't survive 1,000 rounds, and half even go bankrupt by the 166th round; but the remaining 16.5% survivors have their median assets multiplied by 3.5 times—this is exactly why the Martingale strategy causes people to repeatedly fall into ruin. 1. The Casino "Cheat" In 18th century French casinos, a gameplay method has been passed down to this day: bet on red or black, and if you lose, double the bet next time. The first bet is 100, lost; the second bet is 200, won. You lost 100 in total, won 200, netting 100—exactly the amount you wanted to win the first time. Lose again? Bet 400. Lose again? 800, 1,600, 3,200. As long as you have enough principal and the table has no betting limit, this method is mathematically guaranteed to profit. Because you can't lose forever, and as long as you win once, all losses will be covered by that last bet, plus an extra bet's worth of profit. This is called Martingale. It's neither mysterious nor clever; it relies on two assumptions: You have infinite capital. The table has no betting limit. Casinos know this very well, so they set betting limits. And you don't have infinite capital. 2. The mathematically guaranteed winning method Many people argue against Martingale by saying "bad luck," but that's not the real reason. Assuming a single win probability of 50%, the probability of losing n times in a row is 0.5^n. The probability of losing 8 times in a row is 0.39%—which seems very low, right? But if you play 1,000 Can $BTC reach 70,000 by the end of the year? I'm betting on probability, not faith.
There's an interesting bet on Polymarket right now: the implied probability of Bitcoin dropping to 70,000 USD before 2027 is 52%, hitting 90,000 is 24%, and breaking 100,000 is only 9%.
It's about fifty-fifty. This isn't about someone being bearish; it's smart money pricing the path with real money. I pondered the meaning behind these numbers: the market thinks "a further 20% drop" and "holding the rebound" are almost even odds, but "a violent reversal to a new high" is already a low-probability event.
Adding a few realities: the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise rates again in December, October CPI hasn't been released yet (to be announced on November 10), and whether the new Democratic Congress will amend the CLARITY Act to give the SEC more power is still uncertain. Although Binance has stabilized, the 5% of stolen tokens with low liquidity haven't been replenished yet.
So my year-end position strategy is: no leverage, no chasing rebounds, keep 30% cash waiting for the 70,000–73,000 range. Faith is expensive; probability is cheap. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Don't be fooled by “DAO”! CORE active nodes have dropped below 20, and the so-called decentralization is just “31 addresses taking turns controlling”
Many people are misled by the CORE DAO narrative, mistakenly believing it to be a fully decentralized public chain, but the actual validator mechanism reveals huge shortcomings. The project was initially designed to select only the top 21 validator nodes to produce blocks, with later proposals planning to expand to 31, but essentially it remains a small group of addresses taking turns producing blocks, not a truly open, massively distributed decentralized network.
After the underlying reward vulnerability was exposed, the actual number of active validator nodes on the network further declined, even dropping below 20. Block production rights rotate among a limited set of validator addresses, which looks like taking turns controlling, with governance power highly concentrated in the hands of a small group of entities.
Ethereum has tens of thousands of independent nodes distributed globally, so even in a crisis, multiple forces in the ecosystem can provide checks and balances; whereas CORE’s small validator set means that once a protocol vulnerability appears, the project team can easily coordinate a few nodes to push a hard fork to modify the on-chain state. The so-called DAO community governance mostly remains at the promotional level.
When the validator list is highly concentrated, decentralization becomes just marketing rhetoric. Limited nodes taking turns in power means the network’s fault tolerance is inherently weak, which is the core reason why this vulnerability incident’s impact far exceeded market expectations.Bitcoin is heading for a 5th red week in a row.
That happened only 3 times before, and each one was a 30-40% crash. This one is a slow bleed, no panic.
A Sunday close above the weekly open breaks the streak.
#BTCThe volume ratios of the three coins have all shrunk to between 0.66 and 0.85, with liquidation nearly zero, all grinding in the lower to middle range of the 24h interval. The short position walls above are all within 2.5%, and the long position walls below are around 1.5%. But recently, there have been almost no liquidations, the bloodied chips are not being sold off, some positions are reducing while others are slightly increasing. The situations of the three coins differ: ETH is equally thick on both top and bottom; SOL has a short position wall above nearly two and a half times thicker than below, with large holders dominating the shorts; HYPE has dropped to the 24h low, with the most position withdrawals and small-scale rebounds. $ETH｜Resistance 2,255.35｜Support 2,210.64 Short positions above around 2,255.35, +0.95% from current price, liquidation about 9.72 million. Below at 2,210.64, -1.05% from current price, liquidation also 9.72 million, equally thick top and bottom. Momentum-wise, current price 2,233.75, 12-hour volatility 0.88%, Bollinger Band width 10.66%, hovering 2.23% below the middle band. Positions reduced by 1.40% in 24 hours, still decreasing. Volume ratio 0.85, contracting. Nearly one liquidation, almost no volume. At 06:00 1-hour, three soldiers rising, previously at 04:00 three crows, 02:00 long upper shadow, pressure above. In summary, ETH is stuck in a gap less than 2% between 2,255.35 and 2,210.64, equally thick top and bottom. Positions are reducing, no liquidations, no strong moves. Short term will hover in this gap, short position at 2,255.35 is a nearby wall, long position at 2,210.64 is a buffer, breaking it will sweep longs. $SOL｜Resistance 90.645｜Support 8 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls exploded, why did my coins follow and crash?
When the data came out on Friday night, I stared at the screen and laughed for three seconds, then realized I laughed too soon.
US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the market expected only 65,000, nearly an order of magnitude difference, hitting a new high since March this year. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% back to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year, while the expectation was below 3%. Even more striking, August and September combined were revised up by 84,000.
According to the old logic, a strong economy = rising risk assets. But this time it’s the opposite. Why? Because this report pushed the Fed's December rate hike pricing directly to nearly 80%. St. Louis Fed's Mouselim explicitly warned to be cautious about AI infrastructure driving short-term inflation, and Daly was even more direct: the possibility of further tightening is high.
The stronger the economy, the more certain the rate hikes, the tighter the liquidity, the harder it is for Bitcoin. This is the most counterintuitive insight I’ve had this year. So next time nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, don’t rush to buy the dip immediately; first check what interest rate futures say. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $BTC The Fed's play is that "no rate hike" is even harsher than "a rate hike"
Many people only look at the final number from the Fed: on October 28, the federal funds rate stayed at 3.75%–4.00%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Looks like a pause, right? Wrong, this is a "hawkish pause."
The real drama lies in the two dissenting votes. Lisa Cook and Cleveland's Hamarak both wanted to raise rates by 25 basis points on the spot. Cook is a moderate, and this is her first dissent in over four years. The statement also added a half-sentence: "Accumulating more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate policy stance"—which translates to, we haven't shifted direction, just want to wait and see.
Then Washington did something even more ruthless: starting in 2027, in every 8 FOMC meetings, 1 will have no rate vote and no statement; in 2028, this increases to 2. Fewer voting windows mean if you want a rate cut, you'll have to wait even longer. Credit cards, mortgages, car loans—all follow the benchmark rate.
The most direct impact on the crypto world: the US Dollar Index surged 0.71% that day to 102.31, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.85%. With rates not coming down and the dollar staying strong, assets like Bitcoin, which thrive on liquidity, shouldn't expect a bull run. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? "Decentralized" or "Centralized" Disguise? Behind the resignation of the CORE founder, the treasury and code rights are still held in hand!
CORE officially announced that two early core contributors have stepped down from their DAO positions, presenting it externally as a symbolic step towards decentralization. However, market doubts have never ceased: resigning from DAO roles does not equal handing over true control of the project.
This personnel change happened just after the underlying reward loophole and emergency hard fork incident. The official statement only publicized the transfer of block production rights to independent validators, but there is no clear timetable, nor a complete public plan for transferring treasury assets and underlying code upgrade permissions. With only 21 validator nodes already highly concentrated, even if block production is transferred, core development rights and multisig treasury keys are still very likely held by the initial team.
The so-called decentralization seems more like a PR narrative after a crisis. If underlying code modifications and treasury usage are still decided by a small circle, then this resignation is merely a "disguise switch" of identity. If protocol vulnerabilities appear again, the project side can still unilaterally push hard forks to modify on-chain states.
Investors must recognize: true decentralization is not about executives announcing resignations, but about core rights being fully and verifiably handed over to the community. Superficial delegation with real power retained is a key reason for the market's continued lack of confidence.biggest bids at 75k , but dont think weekends this quiet will tag it … we will see on Monday $BTC#BTC spot ETF net outflow this year totals approximately $416 million As of early November, the net outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this year is about $416 million to $502 million, with slight variations depending on the statistical method. Compared to net inflows of about $35.2 billion in 2024 and about $21.4 billion in 2025, this is the first year to see a net annual outflow.
However, this does not mean institutions have "completely exited." ETFs still saw about $25.6 billion in inflows this year, but outflows were greater, indicating a significantly faster capital turnover. Recent outflows were concentrated from late October to early November, triggered by factors including the large-scale Binance hack, uncertainty from the U.S. midterm elections, and a decline in risk appetite due to the tech stock pullback.
More importantly, spot ETF redemptions force market makers to sell the corresponding Bitcoin, so outflows directly create spot selling pressure. Nevertheless, ETFs still hold about $96.65 billion in assets, and cumulative net inflows since 2024 remain close to $56 billion, so the overall market size has not collapsed.
In the short term, ETF capital flow has shifted from "continuous buying" to "highly sensitive rapid in-and-out." Going forward, as long as net inflows turn positive again consecutively, selling pressure will significantly ease; if net outflows persist, it indicates institutions are still reducing positions, suppressing rebound potential. For short-term trading, ETF capital flow can serve as a liquidity signal but should not be used alone as a directional indicator.#After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly still falls about 3.4% This week, the Nasdaq 100 index experienced a sharp sell-off at high levels and earnings report divergences. Although there was a short-term technical rebound at the end of the week, the weekly chart still closed down significantly by about 3.42%. The breakdown adjustment of US tech stocks shattered the previous "independent structural bull" illusion in cryptocurrencies. What impact does this have on the digital currency ecosystem? 1. The "US stock market clock" mechanism of institutional spot ETFs:
- Spot ETFs like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have highly concentrated crypto pricing power during US stock trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time).
- The sell-off of US tech stocks at market open triggered continuous net outflows from ETFs (over $740 million outflow this week), with market makers selling large amounts of spot crypto on native exchanges to hedge discounts.
2. Cross-market indiscriminate deleveraging and ATM effect:
- Macro hedge funds execute Risk Parity. When tech giant stocks face margin calls, funds prioritize selling BTC/ETH, which have 24/7 ample liquidity, to realize cash and protect themselves.
3. Tech valuation cuts and the retreat of crypto AI narratives:
- Capital skepticism about the AI capital expenditure monetization cycle led to a pullback in US semiconductor stocks. Decentralized crypto computing power and AI concept coins (TAO, RENDER, etc.) plunged 16%~22% in a single week, quickly squeezing out liquidity premiums.
4. Altcoin liquidity black hole and rising BTC Dominance:
- Under risk-off sentiment ETF single-day outflow of 412 million, BlackRock leads the withdrawal❗️
On November 6th Eastern Time, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $412 million in one day, with BlackRock's IBIT alone outflowing $403 million, accounting for almost the entire outflow; its historical cumulative net inflow still stands at $65.131 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $93.3 million on the same day, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $90.8 million outflow, and a cumulative net inflow of $11.542 billion (｡•́︿•̀｡)
This data indicates: institutions are reducing risk exposure, not that on-chain faith collapsed overnight. IBIT's high proportion suggests a concentrated portfolio adjustment by large funds; ETHA is similarly dominated by one player, with a clear outflow direction (´･_･`).
Don't automatically interpret ETF outflows as a "bottom-fishing signal." Capital flow is a result, not a starting gun. What really needs to be awaited is a narrowing of outflows, continuous positive inflows, combined with macro expectations stabilizing. Chasing rebounds now risks getting cut.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ETFCapitalFlow #BlackRockLeadingOutflow #WaitForCapitalStabilization$BTC is now trading at the short-term holder cost basis at $76,000. Any dip below it puts the cohort underwater.
We are not seeing forced selling yet but BTC’s current tight correlation to equities means its near-term prospects are out of its hands.The scammy tactics are finally going to be smashed.
In the past few years, shady institutions have been best at two tricks: stuffing "Hong Kong" into their names and printing in small letters "license application submitted" in their promotions, then boldly guaranteeing retail investors with claims like "government-backed compliant major firm" 🤡
Just submitting an application form, without even a shadow of a license, they really think submitting the form means they are licensed.
This time, the Securities and Futures Commission is tightening licensing rules, blocking even the loophole of implying official affiliation through the name. Those relying on fake packaging and riding on credit to paint illusions will have even their last layer stripped clean 🔨
$BTC
$ETH Panic sentiment in the global financial markets is rapidly intensifying.
According to data released by Reuters on November 6, the Wall Street fear index VIX rose above 28 on November 5, reaching its highest level since the end of March.
Throughout the week, the VIX increased by more than 40% cumulatively.
Meanwhile, the tech stock plunge has started to affect other assets, leading investors to increase demand for safe-haven assets such as government bonds.
However, the bond and financing markets are still operating normally overall, and there has not yet been widespread financial system stress.
This is very important.
Because a stock market decline and a liquidity crisis in the financial system represent two different levels of risk.
If the VIX continues to rise, while corporate credit spreads widen and the financing market begins to show abnormalities, then the impact of this AI tech stock correction could further spread.
Currently, the market has shown clear panic, but it cannot yet be concluded that a financial crisis has occurred. $UVXY $BTC $SNDK 200,000 People "Carried Away": Has the Leverage Cleanup Just Begun?
The crypto world was sleepless overnight. $BTC dropped to a low of $75,568, $ETH once approached $2,237, down nearly 9%. According to CoinGlass data: over $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for nearly 90%, about 200,000 traders were "carried away" by leverage. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETH/USDT, valued at nearly $10.94 million.
The trigger is not on-chain:
· U.S. stocks crashed first: Nasdaq fell 5.52%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, AI concept stocks were heavily sold off.
· Macro pricing shift: After the midterm elections, Democrats swept Congress, and the market quickly priced in tighter data center regulations and a slowdown in AI capital expenditures.
· High beta assets took the hit first: Crypto, as the most sensitive risk asset, was hit hardest, with leverage acting as an accelerator.
Currently, $BTC is tugging back and forth around $76,000, and $ETH is close to the psychological $2,200 mark. On-chain indicators have limited significance at this moment; what truly determines whether this deleveraging round is the end or just a pause is whether U.S. stocks can stop falling.
A warning sign: Long position liquidations account for nearly 90%, indicating that the previous long crowding was extremely high, and the leverage cleanup may not be over yet. When macro headwinds meet high leverage structures, every rebound attempt could fuel the next round of liquidations. Right now, surviving is more important than "bottom fishing".
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 After the US CPI release on November 10, if you could only look at one chart first, would you choose the 2-year US Treasury yield or BTC's price trend? Actually, these two charts show two different things: how the market is adjusting interest rate expectations, and how sensitive the cryptocurrency price is to this change. Let's first look at this month's nonfarm payrolls. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, with an average monthly increase of only 48,000 over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, and average hourly earnings in the private sector rose 0.4% month-over-month. Employment numbers for August and September were revised upward by a total of 84,000. Considering employment and wages together, the market has reason to reassess how long interest rates will stay elevated. The bond market has already reacted. According to daily data from the US Treasury, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.46% on the previous trading day to 4.51% on November 6. This 5 basis point move is worth monitoring. The Federal Reserve kept the policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% in October, but two members supported a rate hike. Upcoming inflation data may cause the market to revise its expectations for the December meeting again. My judgment is to first observe whether the change in Treasury yields is sustained, then use BTC's performance to verify. If after the CPI release, the 2-year yield falls back and BTC remains above its pre-release price, I would be more confident that the rebound has support. If yields continue to rise while BTC only briefly spikes, I will watch to see if it can hold onto the gains. These two charts provideThe semiconductor surge on Friday, I classify it as a recovery window after an oversell, not a trend confirmation. AMD rose 11% in a single day, Micron and SK Hynix also recovered simultaneously. The pressure on my long-term base positions has indeed eased somewhat, but this does not mean the direction can be rejudged.
On Thursday, systemic deleveraging occurred, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging ten points in one day. On Friday, it bounced back three points due to technical overselling. Essentially, this is a swing in sentiment and position. Using a card game analogy, this is more like testing the waters with small chips after the flop, not a value bet pushing all-in. Elasticity does not equal sustainability, and a rebound does not equal a reversal.
So the strategy remains unchanged: the base positions are tactical orders; reduce them in batches as they recover, and do not treat the rebound as a belief. If the rebound enters a fatigue zone, the shift to bearish will still happen. What we need to watch now is not how much it rises in a day, but whether volume, leading structure, and deleveraging have truly ended. Has the semiconductor sector really bottomed out, or is it just catching its breath? I lean towards the latter; at least the current evidence is insufficient.$XRP at $50? Let's do the math.
Current circulating supply: 63.51B XRP.
At $50, XRP would need a market cap of approximately $3.17 TRILLION.
The entire crypto market cap is currently around $2.5T.
So, do you really think #XRP alone will reach a market cap larger than the entire crypto market today?
Bullish narratives are fine, but market-cap mathematics matter.
Be realistic with your price targets.盘面安静得有点反常，BTC 在 75800 附近来回磨，像谁都不肯先眨眼。 这种横着不动的样子，你说是蓄力还是泄气？ 这两天我盯着看，77000 一带追进去的人现在最难受，价格反复贴着 75800 晃，之前靠近 76000 那波快速反弹也没能延续，几次上冲都被压回来，买盘承接明显变薄。更关键的是，它不是在单独走弱，而是和外部风险偏好一起被压着：非农数据偏冷、12 月加息押注升到八成以上、科技股又被政策口径限制，这几件事叠在一起，风险资产的情绪是同步收紧的，不是币圈自己在演。 从跨市场联动看，这种环境下 BTC 更像被当成高 beta 的风险资产在交易，而不是避险替代。它上不去，ETH 就很难独立走强；ETH 若迟迟站不稳，山寨的轮动就更像短促的脉冲，而不是能持续几周的板块行情。现在市场提前计价的，是"紧缩预期回来"这件事，但还没完全计价的是：如果科技股继续被压， crypto 内部的资金会更偏向防守，而不是去接高位山寨。 偏多的路径也不是没有：只要 BTC 能重新拿回 77000 上方并站稳，说明这波卖压被消化，ETH 和山寨才有机会跟着修复，情绪也会从防守切回试探。可风险在于，758一个账户同时压着三笔空单，浮盈合计接近1000万美元，资金费收益又额外落袋超1250万美元——这不是短线博弈，而是一场用低杠杆换时间、用资金费堆安全垫的持久战。$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 三个主流币种被同一套逻辑串起来：开仓价远低于现价，爆仓价高悬在现价之上一大截，容错空间宽得惊人。 先看结构。$BTC 空单持有 -2356.4 枚，名义价值1.8亿美元，5倍全仓，开仓价76390.2，爆仓价131182.12，浮盈100.82万美元，资金费已收376.2万美元。$ETH 空单 -78100 枚，同样1.8亿美元名义价值，5倍全仓，开仓价2322.72，爆仓价3896.76，浮盈602.49万美元，资金费476.43万美元。$SOL 则是7倍全仓，-665600 枚，名义价值5984.38万美元，开仓价94.3346，爆仓价280.99，浮盈294.09万美元，资金费400.16万美元。 真正值得琢磨的不是浮盈数字，而是收益构成。三笔仓位合计资金费收入约1252万美元，已经超过浮盈总和的量级贡献。这意味着这套策略的核心引擎不是价格下跌，而是高资金费环境本身——只要费率维持正值，时间就$CORE ⚠️ Alert:
One-sentence conclusion
The short-term probability of going directly to zero is low, but the long-term risk of going to zero truly exists, making it a high-risk asset.
Distinguish two concepts: on-chain zeroing (public network shutdown, completely unable to transfer) vs price zeroing (almost no buy orders, liquidity dried up, price approaching 0)
✅ Reasons supporting that it will not go to zero immediately
1. The mainnet itself has not been breached: the vulnerability is in the b14g third-party staking contract; Core's underlying public chain, consensus, and validator nodes continue to produce blocks normally; the chain itself is still running, and tokens can be transferred between wallets, so it will not die on-chain directly.
2. Most of the stolen funds have been recovered via hard fork (68.15 million tokens), no new issuance, reducing the impact of a one-time large sell-off.
3. Some leading exchanges still temporarily retain trading pairs, only suspending deposits and withdrawals, not delisting entirely; the BTCFi sector still has narratives and some community and validators maintaining the network.
4. The project team has the ability to intervene assets via hard fork and has emergency measures for major security incidents.
🔴 Core risks driving it towards zero (key points)
1. Continuous delisting wave by exchanges: Bithumb confirmed delisting on 11.30, and some exchanges have already delisted; if more leading exchanges follow, liquidity will rapidly dry up, buy orders will disappear, and price will approach zero infinitely, which is the biggest risk.
2. Two consecutive major security incidentsComputing power is too costly; will the token market worry about valuation first?
Growth requires sky-high computing power investment, so investors will naturally question the input-output ratio. Anthropic still aims to push forward with the IPO in November, but potential investors are more selective about valuation.
Speaking of $TAO: on November 7 at 12:00 UTC, about $225.08, 24h +0.42%; Binance contracts at 09:00 show open interest around $53.5 million. Relatively resilient, but contract positions still need independent verification.
Also $ICP: about $2.42, 24h -1.41%. The AI narrative cannot cover its own volatility risk; the AI hype has not directly translated into equivalent price performance.
My impression from this group of tokens is: high capital expenditure affects the discount rate of tech stocks, but AI tokens are more influenced by supply-demand and leverage, so you can’t directly infer synchronous price moves.
If you really want to verify the strength of the AI sector, you should see more than one token increasing volume to follow, rather than just a few headlines repeatedly trending.
If financing costs continue to rise, which type of AI tokens would you be more cautious about?
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $ONE Watch: Doubled in two days, but the official account hasn't posted a single word
Current price 0.00199, up 8.21% in 24 hours, trading volume about 8.36 million USDT, intraday high reached 0.002479
From the low point around 0.00103 on November 5, it has nearly doubled in two days, with Binance-side trading volume once reaching about 40 times the daily average
The Harmony X account has not posted any new announcements explaining this market movement since October 21; the original chain was shut down in September, and the token migration to Ethereum is not news today
Some analysis points to increased contract interest and heavy leverage traces; without new products or cooperation landing, this looks more like liquidity speculation rather than a fundamental revaluation.Ethereum falls and gets back up, why can't CORE recover after falling? The degree of decentralization determines life or death
Facing the same major crisis, Ethereum can be reborn through a phoenix-like revival, while CORE continues to be stuck in a liquidity quagmire. The key dividing line is the level of decentralization.
Ethereum has a massive number of validator nodes distributed globally and a large independent developer community. The DAO incident was just a vulnerability in the upper-layer DApp contracts. All network participants could fully debate and independently decide whether to follow the hard fork. Even though the chain split created ETC, the vast majority of hashrate, exchanges, and ecosystem builders still chose the main chain. This strong and decentralized network brings very strong fault tolerance.
In contrast, CORE initially set only 21 validator nodes, with a highly concentrated validator group and centralized governance power, inherently having centralization weaknesses. This reward vulnerability occurred at the underlying protocol level. After the incident, there was no sufficiently decentralized group of nodes to form a diversified check and balance, causing the market to directly worry about the project party unilaterally modifying the ledger. Coupled with the pressure from 69 million ghost tokens being dumped and competition from BTCFi track rivals, confidence quickly collapsed.
Bugs can be fixed, but the trust gap caused by insufficient decentralization is hard to bridge. Decentralized consensus inherently carries resilience; networks with highly concentrated nodes, once negative events occur, can easily trigger a liquidity negative spiral.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$AKE large buy order cost decreased, small buy orders almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy dropped from 1.31% to 1.12%. 10,000 buy still about 0.16%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are decreasing.
$MET after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.13%/0.12%, for 100,000 it is 0.77%/0.76%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall order book depth is thin.AMD surged 11%, should AI tokens be chased?
AMD's gain on Friday was quite eye-catching, but I wouldn't directly link a chip company's rebound to all AI tokens. Chip stocks rebounded on Friday, with AMD rising about 11% that day, but crypto AI tokens showed mixed performance.
Let's first look at $TAO: around $225.08 at 12:00 UTC on November 7, 24h +0.42%; Binance contracts at 09:00 had an open interest of about $53.5 million. Relatively resilient, but contract positions still need independent verification.
Next, $WLD: about $0.3386, 24h -2.82%. The news hype didn't prevent a short-term pullback; without spot market support, daily stabilization still needs further validation.
Finally, putting them together, the profits of listed companies and the cash flow of tokens are two different things; what needs checking is the AI tokens' own trading volume, supply, and holdings.
If tech stocks face another sell-off, observing which token falls less might be more important than rushing to catch the first rebound.
When chip stocks are strong and AI tokens are weak, would you wait for sector confirmation or bet early on sentiment transmission?
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Combining the context of Rocket Lab's upcoming Q3 2026 earnings report to be released after market close on November 9, the latest progress and related impacts of the Neutron rocket can be summarized from the following dimensions:
1. Core R&D and hardware manufacturing progress
1. Engine testing phase: As of late August 2026, the Archimedes liquid oxygen methane engine supporting Neutron has completed over 400 hot-fire tests. All 9 flight engines have entered mass production, and the core validation work of the propulsion system is basically completed.
2. Rocket assembly advancement: The official update in October 2026 shows that the second-stage rocket has entered the final assembly and full system testing phase. The midsection and common bulkhead of the first-stage propellant tank have been assembled, with front and rear sections being joined. After the thrust module body is completed, comprehensive verification of valves, avionics, and propulsion systems is underway. More notably, the hardware for the second Neutron rocket has already entered the factory and started assembly line production. The company did not wait for the success of the maiden flight to begin manufacturing subsequent batches, demonstrating strong confidence in the overall design scheme. AAVE has become an unavoidable systemic risk node in DeFi.
AAVE Labs disclosed in "Systemic Risks in DeFi" that AAVE's TVL is about $34 billion, accounting for roughly one-quarter to one-third of the entire DeFi TVL.
From a horizontal perspective, the total deposits across all DeFi protocols are about $160 billion, with AAVE alone accounting for 21.25%, meaning that for every $5 in DeFi deposits, more than $1 is in AAVE.
Looking at the asset structure:
In terms of protocol revenue, ETH and stablecoins together contribute 82%, SOL accounts for 6%, and BTC accounts for 5%. The revenue sources are highly concentrated in ETH and stablecoins.
Among the total deposits in DeFi, stablecoins amount to about $57 billion, accounting for 35%; ETH about $50 billion, accounting for 31%; BTC about $29 billion, accounting for 18%. These three asset types together make up 84%.
This means that AAVE's risk is not only within the protocol itself but is also closely linked to the core assets and liquidity of the entire DeFi ecosystem.
Historically, security incidents in DeFi protocols are not uncommon. Problems in smaller protocols may have localized impacts; however, AAVE carries hundreds of billions in assets, and if a major vulnerability, liquidation failure, or liquidity crisis occurs, the shock could spread to a broader market.#RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? IBIT sold 403 million, yet FBTC is still buying
This detail is really worth highlighting: on the same day, two major funds took opposite directions. Since its launch, the spot BTC ETF has still seen a net inflow overall; two days of outflow cannot erase the entire history.
An example on the market is $BTC: on November 7 at 12:00 UTC, about $75,917, 24h -0.21%; aggregated OI daily change -2.0%. The market's support still requires spot transaction confirmation; spot funds need further validation and cannot explain all price fluctuations by a single day’s ETF activity.
At the same time point, $XRP: about $1.17, 24h -2.06%; perpetual OI across three exchanges about $764 million. Positions remain, but the price is weaker, so first guard against further divergence in strength.
So don’t rush to conclusions: capital flows do not mean all institutions are bearish simultaneously; differences among issuers change how we interpret net outflows.
Will you focus on IBIT’s large sell orders, or FBTC’s counter-direction inflow?
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Stop comparing CORE to Ethereum! One is a fundamental protocol crisis, the other is an upper-layer application.
Many people habitually compare the CORE reward vulnerability with the Ethereum DAO incident, but the two are fundamentally different types of incidents, and forced comparisons only lead to misjudging the risks.
Back then, when the DAO was attacked, the vulnerability was only in the DApp smart contract deployed on Ethereum; the Ethereum base protocol itself had no issues. The stolen funds had a lock-up period, giving the community ample time to respond. The hard fork was a governance decision actively made by the community, and this debate actually strengthened the consensus within the Ethereum ecosystem.
In contrast, CORE's incident occurred at the L1 base layer block reward distribution logic, representing a major defect at the native public chain protocol level. The vulnerability directly caused a large amount of tokens to overflow prematurely. Even if some assets were recovered through a hard fork, a huge amount of ghost tokens remained, creating long-term selling pressure. Additionally, with only 21 validator nodes, decentralization is weak, and governance heavily depends on the project team.
The bug levels are worlds apart, compounded by CORE itself being in a phase of declining sector benefits, with liquidity continuously under pressure.
When an upper-layer application fails, the chain's foundation remains intact; when the base protocol has issues, it directly shakes the value foundation of the entire chain. The risks are completely on different scales. $ONE rose from 0.00106 to 0.002476 in two days, with a maximum increase of 141%.
The bait is: the project is shutting down the original L1, migrating to Ethereum, snapshot airdropping new ERC-20 tokens, and also transforming into the AI video sector.
But the part no one wants to see is:
On November 18, the official blockchain explorer will be permanently closed—10 days from now, the narrative endpoint is clearly written.
On August 12 this year, about 4 billion ONE were minted out of thin air, accounting for 26% of the total supply, causing the price to crash 33% at that time.
TVL is only 8.1 million USD left, 24-hour DEX trading volume is 317 USD.
The same script in September: after a 4-day surge, it fell 73% over 6 weeks.
What needs the most attention is the price structure: on November 6, it surged straight from 0.00106 to 0.00197, with almost no transaction accumulation in between. This means that once it breaks below 0.00180, there is almost no transaction support from there down to 0.00130, and the decline speed will be faster than your reaction.900 billion computing power commitments, beyond the hype, costs must be considered
Seeing nearly $900 billion in computing power commitments, it becomes clear that AI development is not just about storytelling but also about paying the bills. Anthropic still aims to push forward with its IPO in November, but potential investors are more selective about valuations.
An example on the market is $TAO: on November 7 at 12:00 UTC, about $225.08, 24h +0.42%; Binance contracts at 09:00 show open interest around $53.5 million. A slight rise does not mean the AI sector is broadly warming up.
At the same time, $AKT is about $0.6428, 24h -1.16%. The theme is reasonable but doesn’t mean funds recognize it today.
So don’t rush to conclusions: financing costs and infrastructure expenses may affect overall tech valuations, but crypto computing power tokens do not automatically benefit proportionally.
If you really want to verify the AI sector strengthening, you should see more than one token increasing volume to keep pace, rather than just a few headlines repeatedly trending.
Would you look at computing power order fulfillment, or first check token market trading and leverage?
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Code bugs can be fixed, but consensus collapse is hard to save: The essential difference between the Ethereum and CORE crises
Both suffered major security incidents and relied on hard forks to fix vulnerabilities. Ethereum grew stronger through the fire, while CORE plunged into a liquidity crisis. The biggest gap between the two has never been the code itself. The Ethereum DAO crisis had vulnerabilities at the DApp application layer, while the underlying public chain protocol remained intact. After the incident, the community engaged in thorough debate, and miners, developers, and exchanges formed a strong consensus. Even though ETC split off, the vast majority of ecosystem participants chose to follow the main chain, and the crisis instead tempered the consensus. CORE’s reward vulnerability directly hit the L1 underlying token distribution mechanism. More fatal was the project’s already weak consensus foundation: only 21 validator nodes, insufficient decentralization, and a community mostly composed of speculators driven by narratives rather than long-term builders. After the vulnerability was exposed, the market immediately worried about inflationary sell pressure, compounded by 69 million ghost tokens looming overhead, exchanges adjusting support, and competition siphoning off BTCFi track users, causing confidence to quickly collapse. Bugs can be fixed through hard forks, but once investors’ trust in project governance and economic models collapses, it is difficult to rebuild. Technical defects can still be repaired, but consensus disintegration is the most irreversible deadlock. #US Crypto Regulation: "CLARITY Act" Progress Stalled, 401(k) Rules Enter Final Review ⚠️ Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations but Can't Shake Gold or BTC! The Market Isn't Really Waiting for Rate Hikes
October nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, showing strong employment resilience, which pushed up the probability of a Fed rate hike in December, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising together. According to traditional interest rate logic, assets sensitive to real rates like gold and BTC should be under pressure, but the market showed a counterintuitive move: after the data release, there was only a brief quick dip before bottoming and rebounding; the negative news failed to break key support and instead reversed to rally.
The core of this abnormal move is that the market's pricing logic switched in advance. This nonfarm report is a "boot dropping" type of negative news; the market had already priced in a weakening expectation beforehand, so when the data was released, shorts took profits en masse, quickly easing selling pressure and supporting prices. Nonfarm payrolls are just a reference; the real determinant for December rate hikes is the November CPI. Before the inflation data is out, funds won't bet unilaterally on rate hikes; safe-haven buying supports gold and BTC to hedge against the pressure from high rate expectations.
Do not blindly short at key support levels; the downside support is strong, and shorting risks being stopped out by volatility. Conservative traders can continue to wait and watch, check their stop losses, and consider positioning only after CPI and rate decision signals become clear.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 69 million ghost chips hanging overhead: Is the CORE reward vulnerability really just a simple code bug?
CORE exposed a validator reward duplication vulnerability, with a total of 255 million CORE tokens released prematurely. After a hard fork, about 186 million were recovered, but approximately 69 million have already spread to external wallets, becoming ghost chips that cannot be directly reclaimed, continuously suppressing market sentiment.
Many people simply attribute the incident to a single line of code error, but the hidden risks go far beyond that. The vulnerability occurred in the L1 underlying block reward accounting logic, directly touching the token issuance rules, representing a defect at the economic model level. The entire network only sets 21 validator nodes, with highly concentrated nodes and inherent decentralization deficiencies, embedding risk hazards from the protocol's initial design.
Compared to the Ethereum DAO incident: Ethereum's vulnerability was an upper-layer DApp contract issue with a solid underlying layer; CORE's problem lies in the chain's own block reward mechanism. Coupled with competition pressure from BTCFi track rivals, long-term low on-chain Gas revenue, and continuous liquidity contraction, the selling pressure expectation caused by ghost chips further amplifies panic.
The code bug is only the surface; the underlying architectural flaws, governance centralization, and compounded downward cycle are the real fatal roots. One vulnerability exposed the project's long-hidden weaknesses to the market all at once.US October Nonfarm Payrolls Released:
New jobs added 165,000 (expected 65,000), unemployment rate 4.1%, wage growth higher than expected, previous two months' data revised upward, labor market resilience exceeds expectations
Market reaction: CME shows December rate hike probability rising to 77%-80% for a 25bp increase; US Treasury yields surged, US stocks diverged, growth stocks under pressure
Several Fed officials stated they do not rule out further rate hikes, while warning of inflation risks brought by AI
Nonfarm payrolls only raise the probability of a rate hike, not a certainty; the key will be the October CPI on November 11
Note: Figure 1 Nonfarm employment data (new job trends)
Figure 2 CME FedWatch rate hike probability (core this time: December hike probability rises above 77%)
Figure 3 US Treasury yield trend chart (yields surged after nonfarm release)
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温