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Ethereum's upgrade roadmap through 2029 has been clarified today
About 7 hard forks scheduled all the way to the end of 2029, with consensus, execution, and data layers all replaced, but old applications don't need to be rewritten
Glamsterdam leads, Hegota is the last fork before the full upgrade, and the final L fork to truly wrap up will be at the end of 2029
The new layered fees are expected to drop by more than 10 times, but this is only an estimate, not a network-wide guarantee, and only applies to the new layers, not all transactions
Each of the seven forks is small, but every step counts; this is how a major protocol overhaul should proceed
#Ethereum #LeanEthereum #Glamsterdam Last night the election results came in, and the market played a game of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Overnight, US stock futures plunged, and Bitcoin followed with a low spike down to 75,700; during the day, US stocks turned positive, and the crypto market pulled back above 80,000. Everyone needs to understand that this rally is purely an emotional recovery from the "result landing" and does not mean crypto policies have improved.
On the macro front, don't be blindly optimistic: although the Democrats took both chambers, Trump has veto power, resulting in a "divided government," so major moves can't be pushed through.
The biggest risk this week is Friday's non-farm payrolls. If the data is hot, the expectation for a December rate hike solidifies, the dollar rebounds, and crypto gains will be immediately wiped out; even if the data is cold and the dollar weakens briefly, it won't change the reality that "rate hikes are still ongoing." Additionally, if the Middle East causes turmoil leading to a spike in oil prices, inflation won't be contained, and the Fed will only become more hawkish, which is directly bearish for crypto.
$BTC $ETH There's something I can't quite figure out.
Mining companies are selling coins, while traders are still waiting for the big bull market after the halving.
MARA transferred out 1,650 bitcoins in 12 hours, worth $132.8 million, with the recipients being institutional platforms like Galaxy Digital and Copper. They have mining rigs and electricity bills, so they know exactly where the cost line is.
We are here watching the K-line charts and drawing lines, while they make decisions based on cash flow. It's clear who really understands this industry.$CL Crude oil just dropped back to $95, but Northstar once again reiterated: it could still rise to $200, even above $300 in the future! What exactly has this analyst seen?
After carefully studying his latest monthly chart, I think there is a very noteworthy logic: short-term pullback and long-term bullishness are not contradictory! Crude oil has already broken through a multi-year downtrend line, but it is still suppressed by a long-term resistance zone above. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate, or even retest the $74–$69 support zone.
The real test is whether it can effectively break through the historical resistance band of $110–$140 in the future, thereby opening up a larger upside space. However, I remain cautious about the $200–$300 target. If the global economy continues to grow slowly, is such a high energy price driven by a supply shortage new bull market, or will it ultimately cause a stagflation crisis that destroys demand?
Technical charts can predict price breakouts, but they cannot guarantee that the economy can bear the cost after the breakout!An on-chain transfer clearly illustrates the miner's situation: MARA Holdings moved 1,650 bitcoins in the past 12 hours, worth $132.8 million at the time.
What’s notable isn’t the amount, but the recipients. Galaxy Digital acts as a market maker and institutional service provider, while Copper is a custody and settlement platform. When mining companies hand over coins to these two types of institutions, it’s usually not for "long-term holding," but to find buyers off-exchange, secure collateralized financing, or simply convert to cash to pay electricity bills.
Breaking it down, 1,650 coins in MARA’s holdings isn’t a liquidation-level amount, but the pace within 12 hours is urgent. Miners’ fund management always prioritizes cash flow more than retail investors; they sell some to lock in profits when prices are good, and sell some to maintain operations when prices are weak—both scenarios can trigger sales. So, simply assuming that "transferring to exchanges" means a dump oversimplifies a complex issue; but treating it as completely irrelevant noise is equally risky.
The real signal will come in the following days: whether these coins are slowly absorbed off-exchange or quickly appear on the spot market. The former indicates liquidity preparation; the latter signals genuine selling pressure.
The miners’ ledger always leads the candlestick chart by half a step. The current question is whether this time they are locking in profits or fighting for survival.$XAUT
One token corresponds to one 400-ounce gold bar. According to the gold token pegging standard announced in Hong Kong today, at the current price of 4120, one token is worth 1.65 million USD.
This is not for retail investors. The project is under the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Ensemble, designed for interbank settlement, priced using the HAU reference price newly introduced by Hong Kong this year, and also requires tokenized deposits. Previously, retail gold tokens were a few grams each; HSBC's was only 0.001 ounces per token. This time, the Hong Kong government uses a whole gold bar as the unit.
At the same time, gold on exchanges follows a different system. XAUT opened at 3932 and rose to 4125, up 5%, with OKX daily turnover of 26.5 million USD; PAXG only 1.83 million, for the same one ounce, quoted at 4134.8, 15 USD more expensive than XAUT, a 0.37% difference. The order book is still thin, with ±1% bids at 98,000 and asks at 59,000.
The premium difference for the same asset is not about the gold itself, but whose market is thinner.
Institutions are fixing the pipelines. Our prices are just the quotes outside the pipeline.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC Midterm elections concluded: Democrats regained control of both chambers, Trump lost for the first time.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December surged to 79.2%, the market is pricing in a "Blue Wave + tightening" scenario.
Key data:
• BTC: Fell below 76,000 before the election → V-shaped rebound to 77,800, 70% priced in
• USD: G10 currencies broadly weakened
• Gold: Breakthrough 4000 logic confirmed
• Long-term US Treasuries: Fiscal deadlock expectations suppress yields
Market segment analysis:
US stocks → Tech high-beta stocks sold off first, defensive sectors took over, volatility increased
Crypto → CLARITY shelved, regulatory headwinds, but BTC's support level remains stable
Macro → Short end tight, long end loose, USD weak, gold strong
Personal view:
This is not a crash, but a re-pricing. Political division reduces systemic risk, rate hikes suppress inflation rather than rescue recession. History rhymes: post-election dip to build a bottom → December FOMC sets direction → 2027 Q1 all bad news priced in and recovery begins$BTC Just now, the 15-minute Bollinger Bands upper and lower bands were very close. The gap between the two bands has fallen to a recent low. The price hasn't expanded its amplitude for more than two consecutive hours. The candlesticks have been moving narrowly within the channel below 81,000.
The 5-minute Bollinger Bands are also very tight. The price has fallen below the 5-minute middle band. The latest 15-minute candlestick's trading volume has halved. Bulls and bears are grinding back and forth in such a narrow space, which is a bit unexpected. Market volatility has been compressed to the extreme, and a direction will be chosen soon.
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are opening upward, and the candlesticks are moving along the upper band. However, the 4-hour EMA moving averages maintain a bearish sequence from top to bottom. If the current price moves up a few more steps, it will reach the daily resistance near 81,000. The major cycle resistance point is right above.
Personally, I am bearish. The strong daily resistance is right overhead, and the 4-hour moving average structure hasn't turned bullish. The bulls lack volume to chew through the sell orders above, so the trend is expected to first pull back to find support.
$ETH $SOL #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $SNDK
At six in the morning, I wrote that this coin was grinding between 1030 and 1050 for six hours, with volume shrinking to just over 6,000 contracts, saying the pipe was connected but no water came. Now it looks like the water has come, and the direction is downward.
The SNDK token opened at 1067 and dropped to 1013, with an intraday low of 990.8. The current price is about 12% below the 24-hour high of 1148.7. At 09:00, the 1H candle released 101,000 contracts, fifteen times the 6,630 contracts at 06:00, and the price easily broke through the previous platform. The only time volume expanded again today was in this direction.
Those holding on have not left. Positions stand at 137,800 contracts worth 140 million, exactly the same as at 3 a.m.; the fee rate is 0.0487%, 4.8 times the benchmark of 0.01%, with longs paying premiums every eight hours. New price lows, unchanged positions, and willingness to pay premiums—this is not panic selling, it’s refusal to give up.
On the other hand, the news is not good either. The list of objections from the issuer of OKXICE has reached 62 companies today, including Nebius, Boeing, and ServiceNow, compared to only 16 in the announcement on October 19.
The regulatory foundation is shrinking, while longs in the contract are still paying premiums to hold. Putting these two things together, I can’t find a bullish reason for it.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 📌 ONEA community additional Q&A: 8 questions about on-chain restrictions and asset security.
If you hold the private key, why might you still be unable to transfer?
Does a failed transaction mean you have been blacklisted?
What exactly do whitelist, pause function, and upgradable contracts mean?
Does open-source code equal security?
How should ordinary users verify projects, check permissions, and reduce operational risks?
These questions cannot be answered by guesswork alone. We need to combine contract code, current status, permission settings, and on-chain records to distinguish verified facts from issues still to be confirmed. For ONEA, judgments about actual progress should also be based on verifiable information, not treating future plans as already implemented features.
Long-term trust comes from continuous evidence, not from demanding unconditional belief from others.
The next article will continue the discussion: Why can traders still get liquidated even when the direction is right?
#ONEA #Web3 #Blockchain 📌 ONEA community additional Q&A: 8 questions about on-chain restrictions and asset security.
If you hold the private key, why might you still be unable to transfer?
Does a failed transaction mean you have been blacklisted?
What exactly do whitelist, pause function, and upgradable contracts mean?
Does open-source code equal security?
How should ordinary users verify projects, check permissions, and reduce operational risks?
These questions cannot be answered by guesswork alone. We need to combine contract code, current status, permission settings, and on-chain records to distinguish verified facts from issues still to be confirmed. For ONEA, judgments about actual progress should also be based on verifiable information, not treating future plans as already implemented features.
Long-term trust comes from continuous evidence, not from demanding unconditional belief from others.
The next article will continue the discussion: Why can traders still get liquidated even when the direction is right?
#ONEA #Web3 #Blockchain Cornered by sanctions, even the national-level stock exchange has to bow to Bitcoin and USDT.
The Moscow Exchange will start crypto spot and swaps trading next month, directly connected to the nationwide unified clearing system. What's more interesting is that they specifically reserved a "no-address anonymous order book" 😅.
On the surface, it's all about compliant pilot projects, but behind the scenes, it's all about practical calculations to circumvent the blockade. They used to shout about a total ban every day, but when it comes to cross-border choke points, they can't even bother with ruble stablecoins and directly bring Tether in as a ready-made tool.
$BTC
$ETH Tomorrow night at 21:30 is the non-farm payrolls release. The market consensus expects only 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. But the data released in the past two days—ADP private sector added 86,000 jobs, and the ISM services employment index rose to 51.4, indicating continuous expansion. These two leading indicators are solid, completely contradicting the market's soft expectations.
This kind of divergence is really headache-inducing. Actually, everyone knows deep down that these recent non-farm payrolls reports are no longer just about the economy's health; it's all about the Fed's decision on whether to raise rates in December. If tomorrow night's data really beats expectations like the ADP, the panic about maintaining high rates or even raising them in December will be reignited immediately. Once U.S. Treasury yields spike, the dollar will strengthen accordingly. Can the Nasdaq and our crypto market handle that? They will get hit hard.
Looking at the market over the past two days, BTC just went through a very nasty short squeeze and short covering. Now it’s already in a tense state of "no follow-through," and funds simply dare not take over at this level. Now, with the non-farm payrolls macro blind box coming, both bulls and bears will most likely hold back, so from tonight until tomorrow night, the market will probably see low volume and sideways movement, all waiting for the results.
Don’t try to guess the data. The instant spike and shakeout when the data comes out is not something ordinary people can handle. If the data disappoints, it’s a lifeline for the bulls; if it’s ridiculously strong, then just watch how the U.S. stock market and Treasury yields react. If you’re itching to trade, hold your hands, wait for the data to settle, see how Treasury yields move, then decide your direction. Don’t gamble your real money on luck at this critical moment. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 to 34, but BTC still fell by 0.66%. Sentiment rebounded first, but the price did not follow— is this a retreat of panic or a dead cat bounce? 1. News. The latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 34, up 8 points from the previous 26, but still in the panic zone. BTC is at $77,187.6, down 0.66% in 24 hours and down 4.18% in the past week, with a 20-day low of $76,265.2. Large redemptions occurred simultaneously in ETFs, so sentiment and capital are not fully synchronized. 2. Capital impact. The latest single-day net outflow of BTC ETFs is $663.6 million, with a 5-day net outflow of $226.5 million and a 10-day net outflow of $351.2 million. The US Dollar Index is at 101.46, down 0.28% intraday, while gold rose 0.43%. A weaker dollar provides a buffer for risk assets, but ETF redemptions directly weaken BTC spot support, so the sentiment rebound lacks capital confirmation. 3. BTC implications. The Fear and Greed Index rebounding from an extremely low level often only indicates the retreat of extreme panic trading and does not represent a full recovery of risk appetite. 34 is still some distance from the neutral line; as long as BTC falls below 76,265 again, sentiment may quickly reverse. To judge whether this rebound is effective, we need to see if ETF outflows can narrow and if BTC can reclaim 79,220, rather than just looking at a single-day rise in sentiment. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether the Fear and Greed Index can continue to stay above 35; second, whether the single-day ETF outflow is$SNDK Longs are crowded: The long-to-short account ratio is about 8.79, with significantly more long accounts than short ones. This indicates a market consensus leaning bullish; if the price continues to fall, longs may be forced to close positions en masse. • Open interest is increasing: Up about 23% in 24 hours, while the price is dropping. This usually indicates new positions entering and increasing leverage. • Funding rate is positive: About 0.054%, meaning longs need to continuously pay funding fees. • Note: The "24-hour price change" field in the snapshot shows abnormal values and should not be used; rely on spot price change data instead. 3. If you still want to go long, you can control risk like this: 1. Use only a small position, such as a small portion of your total capital, and avoid investing all at once. 2. Build positions in batches, for example in 3 parts, each spaced out over time, rather than going all in at once. 💻Breaking down the input by code review: The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" states that he will continue buying when gold, silver, and Bitcoin decline, believing the real issue is global debt expansion, especially U.S. debt. I think debt is worth being cautious about, but using it directly to justify buying on dips doesn’t quite add up logically.
There are two potential bugs: long-term debt expansion doesn’t provide a timeline for assets to stop falling in the short term; gold, silver, and $BTC are not the same function, so you can’t assume they behave the same way under risk. If the market experiences liquidity tightening, these assets could also come under pressure. This is my speculation; you can’t treat the safe-haven narrative as a price floor.
If I were to revise this logic, I would separate "concern about currency purchasing power" and "how to allocate assets," adding parameters like time horizon, cash needs, and drawdown tolerance. Macro views can be discussed, but my risk checks can’t be skipped just because of celebrity opinions.The $20 million trading volume threshold, in my view, is just a filtering criterion, not a liquidity guarantee. To pour some cold water first, I won't assume a contract is easier to enter or exit just because it made this list. This list comes from Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data, with $ZEC leading the gains, TRUMP leading the losses, and BTC and ETH rising simultaneously.
What concerns me are two gaps. First, the trading volume records transactions that have already occurred, not the funds currently on the order book willing to take orders; if trading is concentrated in short-term fluctuations, then after the excitement, entry and exit may not remain smooth. Second, the full-day price change only shows the result between two time points, without explaining the path in between. Even if the close is higher, a steady rise versus a sharp spike followed by a pullback presents completely different execution difficulties for ordinary users. So my judgment is: this list can indicate where activity is, but it is insufficient to prove where participation is more suitable.
Of course, the bulls might be right; my cold water is not a denial of the price increase. If later I see sustained order book depth, stable bid-ask spreads, and no obvious loss of support after price rises, I will change my judgment on trading conditions. For now, I separate "trading heat" from "ease of trading" and won't let a single filtering threshold make risk judgments for me. The dust has settled on the U.S. midterm elections, with a big win for the Democrats, and the market's uncertainty has somewhat eased, leading Bitcoin to rebound above $80,000 today.
According to CoinMarketCap data, around 8:25 AM Beijing time today, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $80,399, up about 3.26% in 24 hours; Binance BTC/USDT briefly fell below $76,000 in the early hours, with a 24-hour high of about $81,196. ETH also strengthened, around $2,425, up about 6.5% in 24 hours.
Interestingly, the rebound's background is not "clean": the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.16 billion over the past three trading days (last Friday $643 million, Monday $399 million, Tuesday $116 million), but the outflow pace has clearly slowed; Bitwise's research head also characterized this round of redemptions as short-term risk aversion rather than a structural institutional withdrawal.
My judgment is: this looks more like an "emotional recovery after the bad news has been fully priced in" rather than confirmation of a trend reversal—the price has returned first, but the funds have not yet come back.
There are two verifiable observation points next: one is whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000, and the other is whether ETF fund flows will turn from net outflow to net inflow in the next trading day; on the downside, watch if the area around $76,000 (the low point of this round) can hold. If either of these two signals changes first, the conclusion will follow. $BTC At first glance at this position, I almost translated “large position” directly as “very confident” 😂. Core Trader 80 (0x683846…02c51) opened a short on $HYPE with 10x leverage, nominal value about $100,000. Having been in the space for only a year, I find that when monitoring, I’m still easily attracted first by the amount.
But after thinking a bit more, my judgment is: this is a trade with a bearish direction, but it can’t be directly taken as evidence that this wallet is fully bearish. What I understand is that a single order only shows one action, not its role in the entire portfolio—I’m not sure if that’s correct.
On one hand, nominal value is not equal to the actual margin invested. Roughly calculating with 10x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $10,000; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss on this position is about $1,000. Leverage amplifies the impact of volatility, not the confidence in the judgment. On the other hand, the data doesn’t disclose other positions; if there are long exposures elsewhere, this short could also be reducing overall risk, which is my speculation.
I haven’t figured out yet how much public transaction data can distinguish between “actively bearish” and “hedging.” I’d like to ask experienced seniors: when observing this wallet’s subsequent actions, which kind of position changes would you prioritize to judge whether it’s hedging, and why?The results of the U.S. midterm elections on November 4 were announced: the Democratic Party regained control of both chambers of Congress. The market's initial reaction was not panic but relief—the stock index futures initially dropped 2.5% during early vote counting, then fully recovered. The analysis from Nexo represents the mainstream view: the market sees the election result as "increasing certainty rather than changing the growth story."
The crypto market's rebound was even more direct. On November 5, Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $80,500, returning above $80,000; Ethereum increased nearly 6% to $2,433; Solana and XRP rose about 2.5%. Leverage data is worth a close look: futures trading volume rose 27%, but open interest increased only 3%, with about $469 million in leveraged positions liquidated amid volatility—traders were adjusting existing positions rather than adding new leverage-based bets; in the options market, call options were the most active, and spot order flow shifted from seller dominance to slight net buying.
Structural differentiation is equally honest: crypto concept stocks collectively rebounded, with Strategy and Coinbase each up about 6% (Strategy's floating rate perpetual preferred stock STRC even touched $100 for the first time since May), Block surged 15% after its earnings report; meanwhile, the Trump-themed TRUMP meme coin fell 17% in a single day—the settlement moment after the political rally, the chips#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
$SONY
Sony FY2026 Q2 (to be released before market open on November 5) likely sees "game revenue decline but profit increase, music steady growth as a support."
Games & Network Services (G&NS)
PS5 hardware continues to weaken, selling only 1.5 million units in Q1 (down from 2.5 million YoY), Q2 expected to remain soft; revenue flat or slightly down. Profit supported by digital versions, additional content, and PS Plus subscriptions—Q1 segment operating profit was ¥202 billion (+37%), but includes a US tariff refund distortion. This quarter, excluding one-offs, focus on three things: PS Plus renewals, MAU (about 125 million in Q1), playtime (whether the -4% decline narrows), memory price increases squeezing console gross margin, and channel inventory expectations ahead of GTA VI release in November. Full-year G&NS operating profit guidance is ¥660 billion, with the market focusing on the "service" aspect rather than console unit sales.
Music
The most stable cash cow. Q1 revenue ¥562 billion (+21%), operating profit +14%; streaming recordings +10%, publishing +8% (in USD terms), boosted by catalog licensing, tours/merchandise, and favorable exchange rates. Q2 expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, with profit growth slightly lagging revenue (due to copyright amortization and content investment). Key variables are whether streaming growth avoids falling to single digits, catalog monetization pace, and yen conversion. Seeing this, I get a sense of familiarity from the last cycle: the market is still telling stories, but everyone has already started counting how much ammunition is left inside. What I want to clarify now is whether the water is just changing pools, or if the entire pool is getting shallower.
According to DefiLlama data, the total USD stablecoins across the network are about $295.3 billion, down $4.83 billion in one week; among them, USDT decreased by $3.08 billion, and USDC decreased by $251 million. What concerns me more this time is that the total supply contraction cannot be explained solely by switching positions between stablecoins; but the volume shrinkage difference between the two is obvious, so we can't directly say all funds are retreating simultaneously.
My judgment is that this looks more like a defensive signal within the cycle, not a bear market verdict yet. If the volume contraction continues, I speculate the market will rely more on rotation of existing funds, and the competition for liquidity among themes will become more apparent. Do veteran players have the same sense of familiarity: shifting from discussing where new money is going to discussing how many rounds the funds inside can still rotate?Sony is releasing its earnings today, with all eyes on the gaming and music sectors.
The gaming business looks bad on the surface.
Last quarter, PS5 sales were only 1.6 million units, a sharp 36% year-over-year drop, and Sony's own major titles sold just 6 million copies, also shrinking!
Monthly active players hit a new high of 125 million, but total game time dropped 4%—people are still there, but playing less.
However, the core is strong: gaming operating profit surged 37%, driven not by hardware sales but by 82% digital sales share and in-game purchases—hardware sales are declining, but profit margins are getting better.
Music tells a different story: revenue grew 21%, powered by streaming and live performances, and they just spent $1.6 billion acquiring a new music catalog, very solid.
The only concern is that last year's "Demon Slayer" was so strong, setting a high base, so growth this quarter won't look as good.
The market expects earnings per share around $0.38, nearly a 10% year-over-year increase, and the stock price had already jumped about 7% before the earnings release, raising the bar: PS5 shipments, "Wolverine" initial sales, and full-year guidance upgrades—these three numbers will be the deciding factors tonight.
Meeting expectations isn't winning; exceeding them is. "Resubmitting and renegotiating a new agreement"—this is the detail I find most damaging to the odds: progress made earlier does not guarantee fulfillment later. According to reports, the Democrats have taken control of both chambers, but advancing still requires bipartisan support, and the rebooted version is expected to strengthen regulations. I don't see this purely as negative news; it feels more like the waiting cost for rule implementation has increased.
I will account for this from two perspectives. If stricter standards can bring clear, enforceable boundaries, then paying more for compliance might be worthwhile; at least companies won't have to keep guessing the red lines. But if it's just renegotiation and demands for more without reducing uncertainty, then for DeFi, the costs come first while the benefits remain uncertain. This is my scenario speculation, not a result that has already occurred.
I would rather guess the passing probability less often but clearly see how much the odds remain after passage. Moving forward, I care more about whether the new text can reduce ambiguity rather than just having a few more optimistic points in the headline. Fractal's first halving destroyed a total of 4,275,161 FB.
About 2.196 million came from the remaining early rewards of Index Mining, 579,000 from public test rewards, and 1.5 million from the second-year ecosystem treasury; all records can be verified on-chain.
When seeing coin burns, retail investors often think the price should rise. However, FB is currently around $0.31, down about 9% in 24 hours, 15.5% in the past 7 days, and 22.4% in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, BTC is still rebounding, indicating weak buying pressure for FB itself.
This burn did not involve secondary market buybacks; it mainly dealt with unissued allocations. It reduced future supply but did not bring in new buying funds.
The burn amount accounts for about 2% of the maximum supply. After the halving, 25 FB will still be generated every 30 seconds, about 72,000 per day, approximately 26.28 million per year, roughly six times the amount burned this time.
Official data shows that about 109.6 million FB are currently in circulation, with 45.7% still not circulating. Index Mining has about 12.6 million FB staked, locking part of the circulating supply; staking rewards will also create new selling pressure.
The direction of this burn is correct; supply pressure has indeed decreased somewhat. For the price to recover, it depends on whether Fractal can bring more users, transactions, and capital to absorb the daily newly minted FB.
#FractalBitcoin #FB #BitcoinSilver surged five points in a single day tonight, directly pushing above $52, much stronger than gold. Some people backstage have already started shouting "Precious metals are about to take off, hurry and chase."
Hold your horses first. Silver is naturally more emotional than gold, with a smaller market and more leveraged funds. Such a vertical single-day surge, seven or eight times out of ten, is driven by short squeezes and forced liquidations, not a sudden improvement in fundamentals. Afte.What I'm focusing on is the step of "selling after redeeming from Aave" 👀. According to monitoring, this large holder who has been silent for a year has cumulatively sold about $6,357,000 worth of ETH and stETH. This is somewhat interesting, but redemption is just a pre-sale action; I wouldn't directly interpret it as a problem with the lending protocol.
I think the impact of this news on small tokens related to staking and lending is more likely due to emotional contagion rather than business changes. If the market interprets the exit of individual large holders as the entire sector falling out of favor, then high-volatility assets might be disproportionately affected. This is my speculation. Emotional misalignment may present observation opportunities, but small tokens have thin liquidity and are harder to absorb selling pressure when the narrative fades.
My approach is to separate changes in the protocol itself from token sentiment, and not to condemn the sector based on a single sell order. Recently, as everyone is paying attention to staking or lending sectors, what signals will be used to distinguish short-term sentiment from real risk?Looking at American Bitcoin's Q3 report, my first reaction wasn't how much they earned, but how much they stored.
8,427 bitcoins, with an increase of over 5% in one quarter. They mined 891 coins that quarter, with revenue of $63.4 million. After staring at it for a while, I have just one question: is this company a miner or a big-time hoarder?
Mining is originally hard work—mine one coin, sell one coin to pay the electricity bill. But they don't sell; they move the mined coins straight to the vault. It's like holding onto $BTC tightly, except their holding is written into the financial report.
It's a bit funny, but also a bit bittersweet. If Nintendo sells gaming nostalgia, then $SONY actually sells an entertainment ecosystem. Think about it, my Switch can still gather dust at home, but it seems I haven't really experienced Sony-related products much.
From the PS5 to music copyrights, Sony has a very special trait: it may not create blockbusters every quarter, but it can turn content into long-term revenue.
Sony is releasing its earnings report tonight, and I personally lean towards steady performance with a slight chance of exceeding expectations.
The PS5 has entered a mature cycle, and relying solely on hardware sales to drive growth is increasingly difficult, but the real profit comes from digital game sales, PS Plus subscriptions, and in-game purchases.
Although players' total game time has declined previously, monthly active users remain stable, and upcoming major releases are expected to drive consumption. I believe the gaming business profits still have support, but revenue growth potential is limited.
The music business, on the other hand, is the part I am more optimistic about. Streaming subscriptions, music copyright licensing, live performances, and music publishing form a continuous revenue business model. Compared to games that require constant R&D investment, music copyrights are more like assets that can generate long-term rental income.
So this time, I focus more on profit growth rather than just revenue figures.
Can Sony prove that the gaming business can stabilize its core base while allowing the music business to continue contributing profits?
#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ A mining company endorsed by Eric Trump just released its Q3 financial report, and the most striking figure isn't revenue, but the string of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
The facts are clear: American Bitcoin held 8,427 BTC at the end of Q3, about 5% more than Q2; it mined 891 BTC during the quarter, with revenue of $63.4 million. Putting these three numbers together, the market reads not how much was earned, but how much was retained.
The mining company model is evolving. In the past, it was hash power exchanged for fiat: mine and sell immediately, pay electricity bills, and repay machine loans. Now, $BTC is treated as an asset: mined coins are not sold but added to the balance sheet, using equity and debt financing to expand hash power. Once the coin-based model is established, miners shift from sellers to holders.
The impact on price structure is slow but real. Every additional mining company hoarding coins reduces the amount of new supply available for circulation. As long as demand doesn't collapse, marginal buyers face an increasingly thin sell-side.
One more detail worth calculating yourself: this quarter mined 891 BTC, but reserves only grew by about 5%. How wide is the gap between what was mined and what was retained? The financial report won't say directly. When looking at mining companies hoarding coins, don't just look at total reserves; you have to see whether they are selling or not.a16z's $HYPE sell-off is still ongoing🤨
In the past 16 hours, a total of 148,145 HYPE has been deposited to major exchanges, with a total value of 12.63 million USD and an average deposit price of $85.26
As the largest external entity holding HYPE, since 10.30 they have transferred a total of 233,000 HYPE, worth over 20.6 million USD. If sold, the profit would be 1.141 million USDBTC currently shows a clear divergence in time cycles: the original post mentioned that spot products have experienced capital outflows for three consecutive trading days as of November 3, totaling approximately $1.158 billion; meanwhile, JPMorgan has for the first time included BTC in its 2027 long-term capital market assumptions. According to this estimate, BTC's benchmark annualized return over the next ten to fifteen years is about 10%, higher than the 7.5% of the US stock market, but with an annualized volatility reaching 55%, and a correlation with US stocks of about 33%. The original post thus believes that due to unstable correlation, uncertain diversification effects, and high volatility, BTC has not yet entered the mainstream institutional asset allocation matrix. This seems more like a change in the long-term research framework and cannot be directly equated with large-scale institutional buying. 💡 My view. Long-term expectations and short-term capital flows are not contradictory. Institutions can recognize BTC's long-term return potential while controlling allocation proportions at the current stage; continuous outflows indicate that short-term funds remain cautious. Looking at both together, the market seems to be in a phase where expectations lead but capital has not yet followed. The original post also cited Strategy founder Saylor's judgment, stating that BTC has completed bottom formation, a new upward cycle has begun, and he is optimistic about an average annual increase of 20%–30% in the coming years, with a target to challenge the 100,000 mark again; he also believes that traditional financial entry and continued team accumulation will provide momentum. This is a personal view and expectation; subsequent developments will still depend on whether capital flows can stop falling and rebound. Are you more focused on the long-term allocation logic or the short-term signals from continuous outflows in spot products? #BTC enters JPMorganShort squeeze rebound, ETF still bleeding
BTC around 80,500, ETH 2,424. After the election results, BTC rebounded from 75,600 to touch 81,000, and the fear and greed index rose back to 50.
The rebound relies on short covering, not active buying.
Nearly 1 billion liquidations across the network in 24h, shorts account for nearly 600 million. Trading volume expanded, but open interest contracts decreased by 4.36%, indicating existing shorts are stopping losses rather than new funds entering.
The funding situation remains weak.
BTC spot ETF outflows for three consecutive trading days, weak willingness to take over funds, rebound sustainability is questionable.
Macro focus:
Midterm elections concluded, regulatory battles continue. The real core trigger is tomorrow night's non-farm payroll data, which will directly set the tone for December rate hike expectations.
Key levels:
BTC: Upper resistance at 82,600 is the main wave threshold, lower psychological support at 80,000; if broken, look to 78,000.
ETH: Upper strong resistance at 2,439-2,465, lower support at 2,400-2,365.
In short: Shorts being squeezed provide the rebound, but lack of buying support. Do not chase longs, wait for a pullback to stabilize at 80,000 before watching further; control positions before the non-farm data.Exclusive Market Analysis for November 5
1. Shorts Have Become the Fuel for the Rally
In the analysis from the past two days, we mentioned a key level: $80736. If the price rebounds to this point, more than $1.3 billion worth of short positions will be liquidated.
The election results triggered forced buybacks, which accelerated the price rally. Shorts were squeezed and became the fuel for the upward move.
2. Negative Funding Rates and Declining Open Interest Are the Most Important Signals Right Now
Data from OKX shows: BTC's 8-hour average funding rate is about -0.0044%, and the basis rate dropped to about -0.00215%, hitting a nine-month low.
Historically, similar bottom scenarios are characterized by negative funding rates and concentrated large short liquidations. This historical bottom pattern is preliminarily forming now.
3. Key Data Analysis
Upper channel target: $82600. Analyst Yili Hua: After touching the $75,700 downtrend line, the upper channel target is set; a strong breakout could trigger a pullback.
Core resistance: $81300–$81500
Bull-bear dividing line: $80000. Regaining and holding this level is a condition for the market to ease short-term caution; closing below it would downgrade the rebound's quality.
First support: $79500–$79800, a 4-hour short-term support zone. If the price tests but does not break below, the rebound structure remains intact.
Key support: $78000–$78300, the next level after losing $79500 $CAP just placed a takeout order, and while waiting for the food, I glanced at the market and was so shocked that my hand trembled, quickly closing out the small short position I had. This wasn’t just waiting for takeout; it was almost waiting for a liquidation!
【Hardcore Review of this "Extreme Short Squeeze"】:
Looking at the 15-minute chart, CAP was pulled up hard from 0.072. I just shorted at a high of 0.09942 (point S), thinking, "Since you dare to go long, I dare to short." After all, the MACD had already formed a death cross at a high level, and the green bars were showing, so it really looked like a pullback was coming.
But switching to the second chart data, I broke out in a cold sweat: the short accounts ratio actually surged to 71.87%! The long-short ratio dropped to a terrifying 0.39!
【Unique Insight: Short is Long, Long is Short】:
Friends, this script is too familiar. Everyone was counter-trend shorting at the top; this 70% short position is the fattest fuel in the eyes of the market makers. The market makers would never kindly let the shorts profit together. Most likely, they will forcibly push the price up to blow out all the high-leverage shorts before a real drop.
【My Trading Advice】:
I was so scared I quickly closed my position to break even and took profits! For these extreme short squeeze tokens, never try to guess the top, and don’t stubbornly hold on. With shorts so crowded now, let’s just grab a small stool and watch how the market makers wipe out this 70% short army. As long as the green hills remain, there’s no fear of running out of takeout!💻 I want to break down this input according to code review: According to Odaily monitoring, a certain address increased its long position by 3,875 $ZEC from 09:09 to 10:07, raising the holding to 15,000.19 coins. The contract account's cumulative profit is about 21.35 million USD.
My judgment: This seems more like a sentiment signal rather than a fundamental bullish factor. There are two logical points to check: the account's cumulative profit is not equal to the profit from this $ZEC long position; mixing them causes variable confusion. The address increasing its position shows it is adding to its long exposure, but this action alone cannot verify the coin's value. Directly inferring "making money before" as "this time is also right" lacks testing in between.
If it were me, I would look at the account profit, single coin holdings, and position increase actions separately in the information to avoid piecing together what looks like a complete winning rate report. Next, I want to observe whether the position increase continues, rather than using historical profits to endorse the current position.Platform coins rely on security narratives to support their valuations. The trust crisis fallout from the neighboring exchange hasn't dissipated, and the election has pulled risk appetite back. Among these platform coins, which one has stronger security attributes?
$BNB shows the most obvious repair in security narrative among the three. Binance released a PoR audit report on November 2 to patch the trust crisis, and on election day, risk appetite rebounded back to around 715; however, BSC's daily active addresses had previously dropped by 14% due to incidents. Currently, BNB's security reputation is still being restored, but adoption hasn't caught up yet.
$HYPE actually weakened that day, as two whales dumped after ICE revised the perps plan, compounded by the November 6 unlock expectation scaring off short-term traders. However, the team clarified on Discord that only 180,000 tokens were actually distributed, accounting for 1.2% of daily volume; the 9.92 million shown on trackers was a false alarm. Panic hasn't subsided, and no one dares to make a move.
$OKB remains the most boring but also the most stable. It neither rose nor fell on election day, and its defensive attributes were validated amid the chaos. It is purely a deflationary shadow token, and holding it as a defense in these times is more practical than chasing highs.
BNB relies on PoR to restore trust but ecosystem adoption lags behind; HYPE is dragged down by unlock expectations and persistent panic; OKB neither rises nor falls, but instead demonstrates the most solid defensive attributes amid the turmoil.First, to pour some cold water on this, I don't accept translating this reduction in position directly as "smart money turning bearish." According to Odaily's monitoring, a certain address completed 42 rounds of BTC transactions from September 18 to October 30, with a single-asset win rate of about 98%; from November 4 to 5, it net reduced long positions by about $6.7 million, and currently still holds about $18.1 million in $BTC long positions. My judgment: this is a risk reduction by the bulls, not yet a confirmed bearish move.
I mainly focus on two points. First, the remaining long position value after reduction is still higher than the net reduced amount this time, so the directional position remains. Calling "reducing a bit" as "turning bearish" is too much of a stretch. Second, a single address's position change does not equal a full market fund withdrawal; the data lacks its complete asset allocation and other accounts' hedging information. I don't know why it reduced, so I'm even less willing to take one action as a statement for the entire market.
Of course, the bears might be right. If this address continues to cut long positions, while prices weaken and the market sees a broader withdrawal of bulls, I will increase the weight of this signal. These are my verification conditions, not something that has already happened. Even though I lean bearish, I can't use someone else's position reduction to bolster my own confidence. Regarding the significance of this news for the short-term direction, who stands bullish or bearish? Please state your reasons, especially clarifying which evidence is still missing. [819 Million USD Liquidation, Shorts Suffer Even More from the Rebound]
In the past 24 hours, about $810 million worth of crypto contracts were liquidated, with shorts accounting for approximately $579 million and longs about $240 million. The largest single liquidation was on $ETH, valued at $37.9991 million. Shorts made up over 70%, indicating that the main driving force of this rally came from short covering after the price rebound.
$BTC previously dipped below $76,000 but then reclaimed $80,000, with a single-day gain exceeding 4% at one point. After the US midterm election results were finalized, the weakening dollar and recovery of risk assets also provided an external environment for the crypto market rebound. The price increase triggered short liquidations, and forced buying further pushed prices up, forming a typical short squeeze chain.
However, this rally cannot yet be considered a trend reversal. Open interest actually decreased by about 1% during the same period, indicating that many positions were passively closed and new leverage did not expand simultaneously. After clearing the previously accumulated shorts, further upward movement requires spot buying to take over.
The short squeeze has already occurred in the short term, but whether the market can turn into a reversal depends on whether BTC can hold above $80,000 and continue to reclaim resistance above. Short squeezes can push prices up, but what truly determines how far it can go is whether real money continues to enter the market.ZEC 24h: First dipped to 1,172, then surged to 1,349, currently at 1,321 (+11.8%)
After briefly dipping to 1,172 yesterday afternoon, the market reversed overnight: the price broke through the 1,248 decline zone and the previous high resistance at 1,297, reaching a peak of 1,349.4 before falling back to 1,321 in the early morning. During the same period, BTC rose +5.5%, ZEC showed nearly double the volatility.
The most notable aspect is not the price increase, but the open interest: 24h OI +24.3%, rising to 180 million — this indicates new funds entering the market, not short covering. The funding rate remains at +0.008%, signaling the market has shifted from "deleveraging" to "re-leveraging."
Assessment: The breakout of 1,248-1,297 is valid, and Monday's panic low at 1,125 has been confirmed as a phase bottom. Currently, 1,321 is consolidating after the breakout, with resistance at the 1,349 high and the previous high of 1,395; as long as the pullback does not break below 1,297 (previous high turned support), the bullish structure remains intact.
Risk: Multiple instances of extreme sell pressure with buy/sell ratios between 0.20-0.46 occurred at high levels within single hours, indicating profit-taking above 1,320. Chasing highs requires waiting for a pullback; it is not advisable to chase gains near 1,340. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
US Stock Market Analysis: The Blue Wave Lands, Why Did the Index Surge While Your Chip Stocks Plummeted?
The Democrats swept both the House and Senate, with the Dow soaring 1,569 points overnight, a 3.03% increase to 53,356.12 points, marking the largest single-day gain in over a year; the S&P 500 rose 1.58%, and the Nasdaq increased 1.44%. But if you only bought chip stocks, the experience might be completely different.
Macroeconomic news has effectively split the US stock market in two.
The election removed political uncertainty, with the market betting on limited fiscal expansion and easing geopolitical tensions. Crude oil plunged nearly 9% to $87.49, the 10-year US Treasury yield sharply dropped to 4.89%, the dollar fell 0.33%, and gold surged over 3% to above $4,060.
Transmission to equities: Microsoft rose 6.7%, Amazon 6.1%, Apple over 5%, with mega-platforms becoming cash flow safe havens; meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3%, Micron plunged 7%, Nvidia dropped 3%, CoreWeave nearly 10%, and the energy sector overall declined nearly 5%.
Money hasn't left the market; it has just violently rotated from the "computing power narrative" to "cash flow certainty." The probability of a December rate hike remains near 80%, but today the market chose to trade politics first, then price in the Federal Reserve.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
US Stock Market News Analysis: The Midterm Election "Boot Drops," So Why Are Tech Giants Torn in Two?
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow surging 1,569 points, up 3.03% to 53,356.12, marking the largest single-day gain in a year and a half; the Nasdaq rose 1.44%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.58%. But beneath the index rally, sector splits were extremely severe.
On the turnover leaderboard, Apple rose 5.31% with $31.259 billion in trading volume, reclaiming the top market cap spot; Microsoft gained 6.68% with $28.073 billion in volume, hitting a record high; Amazon rose 6.12% with $24.863 billion in volume.
On the other hand, Nvidia fell 3.17% with $29.982 billion in volume, Micron Technology plunged 7.00% with $28.606 billion in volume, and Tesla dropped 3.34% with $18.328 billion in volume.
The core variable in the news is the midterm election: the Democrats swept Congress, eliminating political uncertainty, Trump expressed willingness to cooperate, and risk appetite instantly released.
However, the Democrats' policy stance directly hits data centers and the chip supply chain, with CoreWeave down nearly 10%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once falling over 2%.
Meanwhile, hyperscale cloud providers became a safe haven, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all surging, as market logic shifted from "buying computing power" to "buying cash flow." Whale's “Short Rent Collection Scheme” (￣▽￣)
A certain whale was detected shorting BTC/ETH/SOL simultaneously in the perpetual market, with a nominal value of about $660 million. The three legs performed differently: BTC has an unrealized loss of $3.62 million, but the funding fee is $3.59 million, almost offsetting it; ETH has an unrealized profit of $2.35 million and a funding fee of $4.56 million; SOL has an unrealized profit of $346,000 and a funding fee of $3.96 million. The total funding fees of the three legs amount to about $12.12 million, which still contributes positively after covering unrealized losses (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
In its full-position mode, BTC/ETH use 5x leverage, SOL uses 7x. The opening prices are $76,383 / $2,322.71 / $94.33 respectively, with liquidation prices at $137,256 / $3,793.19 / $292.81. It’s clear that it doesn’t rely on short-term dumping but rather long-term shorts collecting funding fees, exchanging time for space (•̀ᴗ•́)و.
However, the full-position margin linkage is a hidden risk: once extreme market conditions approach the liquidation price, the three legs will drag each other down (╥﹏╥). This scheme profits from patience but fears black swan events.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 【JPMorgan Sets a 10% Annualized Return for BTC, but Institutions Withdraw $1.16 Billion Over Three Consecutive Days】
JPMorgan has finally included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market forecast, projecting an annualized compound return of about 10%, higher than the 7.5% for the U.S. stock market. This marks a formal recognition by traditional finance of BTC's long-term investment value, but don't rush to interpret this as institutions preparing to make large purchases.
The report also indicates a 55% annualized volatility. This figure means that although $BTC has higher long-term expected returns, its holding process is much more volatile than stocks. Therefore, JPMorgan did not include BTC in the main asset covariance matrix but instead established a smaller, separate comparative model. The real concern for institutions is not whether BTC can rise, but whether it can play a stable role within a portfolio.
However, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive trading days through November 3, totaling about $1.157 billion, with the largest single-day outflow on October 30 reaching $643 million; IBIT still experienced an outflow of $95 million on November 3.
This can be seen as a difference in two time dimensions:
Wall Street is beginning to acknowledge that BTC deserves long-term study and allocation, but it still faces two hurdles—volatility and correlation—before becoming a conventional portfolio asset like stocks or bonds.
Long-term forecasts are an endorsement, but continuous buying is the true allocation. The current consecutive outflows from ETFs indicate that institutional demand is not yet strong enough to support the short-term market.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Sony's gaming and music businesses are the two most closely watched segments in this earnings report.
In gaming, the PS5 ecosystem foundation is solid, with stable subscription and digital game revenues, but console shipments, new release schedules, and R&D investments will cause performance fluctuations; elasticity depends on the performance of major games.
The music business is more stable, relying on its copyright library, streaming revenue shares, and concert-related income, showing strong resilience to economic cycles and serving as an important profit stabilizer.
Additionally, changes in the yen exchange rate will impact overseas revenue. Overall, gaming is about elasticity, music is about stability.
⚠️For industry analysis purposes only, not investment advice. Less than 48 hours after winning control of both chambers, the Democrats have started rewriting crypto rules: the SEC is set to regain dominance, while the CFTC will be weakened.
Reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed on November 4 that House Democrats are planning a new crypto market structure bill.
The draft is based on Waters' 2025 "Crypto Investor and Consumer Protection Act," which was previously rejected.
The fate of the old bill illustrates the trend: it passed the House 294 to 134.
But on September 15, the Senate stalled it at 49 to 50 on a procedural motion, 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold.
The new proposal may also add an ethics clause restricting federal officials like Trump from participating in crypto businesses.
But don’t take it as fact yet: so far, it’s only insider industry reports, with no official text released.
Republicans have already labeled it a "slogan bill."
I think this round isn’t about the details, but about "who calls the shots"—the regulatory balance is swinging back from the CFTC to the SEC; just watch, don’t chase.
Invalidation point: If the new Congress presents an official text and starts committee review at the beginning of January next year, or if bipartisan substantive negotiations begin, my "announcement before implementation" judgment will be void.
Do you think the new Congress’s first move will target exchanges or officials holding crypto?
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Starting from 12:00 on November 5, B will gradually open partial asset withdrawals on the $ETH, $BSC, $BASE, $TRX, $MATIC, and $SUI networks.
Why release in phases instead of all at once?
It is a deliberate measure to mitigate the impact of a bank run, as the platform's risk management enters its final stage.
Here, we need to distinguish two layers of capital logic:
One part of users withdrawing coins to self-custody is a normal transfer after trust repair;
The other part of the withdrawn chips will directly become potential selling pressure.
Personal judgment:
In the short term, on-chain liquidity will rise, and the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, so do not treat this as purely positive news.
The peak of custody anxiety has passed, but emotional aftershocks remain.
Going forward, focus on monitoring large on-chain withdrawals and the strength of $BNB linkage.
The market will not move unilaterally just because withdrawals resume; the pace will still be slow.
Sharing this thought process with those following along: prioritize risk control and avoid emotional speculation.STX just experienced a volume surge with a one-hour price drop, followed by an even larger trading volume in the next hour, and the price pulled back again. OKEx spot trading from 10 to 11 o'clock was about $515,000, 5.5 times that of the previous hour, closing down 2.19% at $0.3524. By 11:30, the price had returned to $0.3618, and the still-unclosed hourly candle at 11 o'clock had a trading volume exceeding $1.08 million.
This round of pullback is quite noticeable; for now, I do not classify it as new leveraged chasing. OKEx contract open interest nominal value was about $2.94 million at 10 o'clock and about $2.91 million at 11 o'clock, with a funding rate around -0.012%. Trading volume expanded while open interest slightly decreased, so at least open interest data cannot prove that long positions are accelerating; whether longs or shorts were closed cannot be determined from this data either.
High volume does not necessarily mean the buy side can hold the price. I am more focused on whether the next complete hourly candle can stand above $0.3657, the 24-hour high, while open interest increases. If it falls back below $0.3524, the current pullback lacks evidence of continuation.
$STX Fractal's first halving destroyed 4,275,161 FB tokens.
About 2.196 million came from the remaining early rewards of Index Mining, 579,000 from public test rewards, and 1.5 million from the second-year ecosystem treasury; all records can be verified on-chain.
Seeing token burns, retail investors often expect the price to rise. However, FB is currently around $0.31, down about 9% in 24 hours, 15.5% in 7 days, and 22.4% in 30 days. Meanwhile, BTC is rebounding, indicating weak buying pressure for FB itself.
This burn did not involve buybacks on the secondary market; it mainly dealt with undistributed allocations. It reduced future supply but did not bring in new buying funds.
The burn amount accounts for about 2% of the maximum supply. After the halving, 25 FB will still be generated every 30 seconds, about 72,000 per day, roughly 26.28 million per year, approximately six times the amount burned this time.
Official data shows about 109.6 million FB are currently circulating, with 45.7% still not in circulation. Index Mining has about 12.6 million FB staked, locking part of the circulating supply; staking rewards will also create new selling pressure.
The direction of this burn is correct; supply pressure has indeed decreased somewhat. For the price to rise, it depends on whether Fractal can bring more users, transactions, and capital to absorb the daily newly minted FB.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC 80720 $ETH 2431 $ZEC 1318 All three RSI indicators are maxed out, I entered short positions first in this wave
BTC's RSI at 78.8 is indeed hot, ETH at 77.3 is also rallying, but ZEC's 58.4 is nowhere near maxed out, so the headline saying all three are maxed is a bit exaggerated. I entered a short on BTC around 80700, with a stop loss above 81500; the upper Bollinger band at 81648 is the last line of defense. I also took a short on ETH at 2431, but with a lighter position than BTC. The funding rates are only 0.01% and 0.0049%, indicating that long leverage hasn't gone crazy yet. With such mild funding rates and overbought conditions, the pullback is likely to be shallow, don't expect a waterfall drop. The 24h gains of 5.92% and 8.35% are sharp rallies, so profit-taking will definitely happen, but the MA25 at 79338 and 2370 is still holding firmly, so the trend is intact.
In terms of operation, my short positions are only for the short term, targeting BTC to exit between 79500 and 80000, and ETH around 2380. I won't short ZEC; despite a 12% gain, its RSI is only 58, indicating it has climbed slowly from a low level, not an emotional top. The high at 1352 is resistance but not yet a time to short. What really needs caution is if BTC stabilizes above 81200, I will admit my short position was wrong and exit immediately, no holding on. My judgment for this wave is a rise followed by a limited pullback, don't mistake the pullback for a reversal, control your position size, and don't get carried away.