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BTC's current bear market began on October 6, 2025, at its historical peak and has lasted 396 days as of this writing, slightly exceeding the average 391 days needed to bottom out bear markets since 2014. In terms of historical retracement magnitude, the 2014 bear market saw a maximum drop of about 86%, 2018 about 84%, 2022 about 77%, while the current retracement is about 53%, relatively mild. With the increase of spot ETFs, enterprises, and institutional participants such as funds, the market's position structure may become more stable, thereby reducing the extent of declines. BTC whales have been continuously accumulating since July. However, reaching the historical average cycle duration does not mean the bear market is over; BTC still needs to reclaim and maintain the $80,000 to $82,000 range to further confirm market trends. Meanwhile, recent declines in U.S. tech stocks and semiconductor sectors, capital shifts to bank stocks, as well as the Dow Jones rising and oil prices falling after the U.S. midterm elections, are taken as the backdrop, suggesting current Wall Street capital flows are unclear, and BTC may be at the tail end of the bear market cycle. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Aztec, a privacy-focused Ethereum Layer 2 network, has launched the Tierra upgrade, introducing a new rollup that significantly improves message passing speed between Aztec and Ethereum. However, this upgrade requires existing contracts to be recompiled and will generate new contract addresses, meaning developers must take action to migrate. To ease the transition, Aztec is providing approximately 30 days of funded migration support for V5 users. The Tierra upgrade is a key step in Aztec's roadmap, aiming to bring scalable privacy to Ethereum. By enhancing cross-chain message passing, the network seeks to reduce latency in transferring assets and data between Aztec and the Ethereum mainnet, which is crucial for DeFi composability and user experience. Industry Analysis and Impact This upgrade highlights the challenges and opportunities in building advanced Layer 2 solutions. While faster message passing can unlock new use cases—such as near-instant cross-chain swaps and more responsive privacy applications—the need to recompile contracts introduces friction for developers and users. This is a common trade-off in the rapidly evolving L2 space, where protocol upgrades often require breaking changes to improve performance and security. Aztec's decision to fund migration for V5 is a pragmatic move aimed at retaining the developer community and ensuring continuity. It also underscores the competitive pressure among L2s to not only innovate but also provide robust developer support CARDS has already stirred up expectations.
Trading hasn't started yet, but the sentiment is already running ahead.
I'm standing aside: this pricing wave is hope, not realization.
Coinbase has put Collector Crypt's CARDS on its listing roadmap.
Note, it's a roadmap.
Not already listed.
No opening date given either.
If trading really opens, it still needs market-making support and technical infrastructure in place, which will be announced separately.
During this gap, the market has already started filling in the price.
OKX spot rose about 13.83% this round.
But what's more striking is the volatility.
Low at 0.2521, high at 0.354.
Relative to the open, volatility is about 39.91%.
Current price 0.2906, not holding the high.
Price went up, but that doesn't mean the news has landed.
Nearly 40% back and forth looks more like an early overdraft of the "possible listing."
CARDS is already traded on multiple CEXs including OKX.
Coinbase is not the first place to buy it.
What it brings is greater exposure.
Not a realized opening.
I don't want to count intention as a direct result.
Do you treat the roadmap as a positive realization, or as an unrealized option?
#OKX星球话题来啦 $CARDS $BTC Rushed up to 81,190 this morning, now at 80,300.
700 points short, didn't touch the 50-day moving average (81,933).
This is the first real resistance encountered in this rebound. Previously, from 76,664 upwards, there was hardly any resistance because short squeezes don't need a reason. But above the 50-day moving average is the cost zone for those who entered in the last two months, where there is real selling pressure.
Also, a figure released this morning: ADP private employment at 86,000, expected 75,000.
Employment is stronger than expected. If tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are similar, expectations for a December rate hike will harden.
The market is now betting on a December rate hike — this is a stone on top of the rebound.
Another risk few mention: Democratic control of both chambers is not friendly to crypto. They were the ones blocking the CLARITY Act before, and now they call the shots.
So my view remains unchanged: this is a correction, not a reversal.
I won't add positions before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls come out. #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
My US stock pre-market diary (November 5, 2026): The main forces are dumping SNDK, SpaceX, and SOXL. Should you short or lay low?
Take a look at the pre-market volume leaderboard; don’t be fooled by the "slight dip in the three major indexes." S&P futures only fell 0.06%, but SOXL is down 6.93%, SNDK down 2.93%, and SpaceX down 1.06% pre-market. This isn’t a broad sell-off; someone is specifically dismantling AI hardware stocks.
Breaking it down, the reasons for the sell-off in these three stocks are completely different.
SND’s earnings report showed a 372% surge in revenue last quarter, but the next quarter’s revenue guidance of 10.3–10.8 billion is several billion below the market expectation of 11.148 billion, with gross margin guidance flat quarter-over-quarter and signs of peaking.
Adding to that, Texas has changed hands politically; the Democratic governor advocates pausing new data center construction. Goldman Sachs estimates this will impact about 45% of data center expansion capacity nationwide.
SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, dropping from 79 to 62.36, triggering forced liquidations and stop-loss orders concentrated exits.
For SpaceX, Crew-13 was delayed due to oxidizer leakage in the propulsion system, and Democrats are still threatening to review government contracts with Musk’s companies.
Software and platform giants haven’t been hit at all. The capital is violently shifting from the "computing power narrative" to "cash flow certainty," not exiting the market.
Don’t bet on a V-shaped rebound in trading.#CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%
The stablecoin business that earns interest—can issuing tokens really change the game?
Circle's latest financial report exceeded expectations, with total revenue of $865 million and EPS of $0.84, far surpassing market expectations. This is a major capital showdown $CRCL
The rate cut cycle has arrived, and the decline in reserve yields dragged interest income down 8% year-over-year to $658 million. The old rental model of earning interest from government bonds passively no longer works; pushing on-chain transaction volume to $13.9 trillion, a 49% increase, still can't offset the yield shrinkage.
The turning point is that the Arc token presale contributed $182 million in just one quarter.
Everyone thinks this is just a desperate cover-up to cash out, but I am optimistic about this strategic shift. If stablecoins only serve as underlying funding channels, the bulk of profits are taken by the channels and exchanges.
Issuing the Arc public chain token is not just riding the hype; it upgrades tenants to landlords, keeping the transaction fees originally given to channels directly in their own pockets.
In the short term, narrowing interest income will still pressure the stock price with volatility. But in the long run, as long as the Arc public chain and CCTP cross-chain protocol ecosystem loop is established, Circle's valuation logic will leap from a fragile financial interest-earning stock to a high-premium foundational infrastructure tech stock.
DYORThe US stock market is currently being supported by just a handful of major companies, particularly the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” while a large number of individual stocks have already suffered significant declines. The crypto market is showing a similar pattern. Bitcoin, Ethereum, $BNB , and $HYPE are providing some stability, while most altcoins continue to struggle, with many looking increasingly weak. Bitcoin and Ethereum have staged a relatively strong rebound from yesterday into todaRecently reviewing the market, I found a commonality: event-driven pulse rallies are increasingly lacking sustainability.
$PEPE is now stuck in a sideways range around 0.000005.
After the selling pressure from the previous theft was released, a single large holder directly scooped up 45.08 billion tokens.
A simple calculation: 45.08 billion tokens × 0.000005 ≈ 2.25 million USD.
This single order of over 2 million USD briefly pushed the price up, but it was just this one order.
The biggest weakness of the market lies here:
The rally depends on a single large buy order; once the funds stop, there is no incremental off-exchange volume to follow up, the heat fades, and the price quickly returns to its original state, resulting in long-term sideways consolidation.
Not only PEPE, two other tokens follow exactly the same script:
$TRUMP remains sideways around 1.58; on voting day, no new funds entered to follow up, and the positive news immediately turned negative.
$UNI has been stuck around 7 USD for a long time. The protocol itself continuously generates revenue and the fundamentals are not bad, but incremental buying has dried up, and no one is willing to actively push the price higher.
Summary:
Events bring short-term emotional rallies, but after the news cools down, there is a lack of long-term buying funds.
Off-exchange funds are now very cautious, they won’t blindly chase hot spots, mostly waiting for volume confirmation or a completely new narrative to emerge before considering entry.
At this stage, do not chase pulse rallies.
Price increases driven by single injections of funds are most prone to sharp pullbacks and trapping.
Wait for sustained volume expansion before judging whether the trend has reversed. #RationalViewOnMarketVolatility #BewareOfShortTermPulseRallies Data shows that currently long positions account for 58.75%, short positions 41.25%, with a long-short ratio of 1.42. During the previous rally phase, the proportion of long accounts surged rapidly, and the long-short ratio once rose sharply, fully igniting retail investors' enthusiasm for going long.
Recently, the long-short ratio has noticeably declined, indicating that some long accounts have actively closed positions and exited, cooling down the market's bullish sentiment, but the proportion of long accounts still holds the upper hand.
This structure warrants caution, as the retail long proportion is relatively high, indicating a crowded long position state. If the price struggles to move upward, it can easily trigger a pullback to shake out short-term trend-following long positions.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ARB
Arbitrum's biggest opportunity goes beyond being another Ethereum scaling solution. Its broader ecosystem gives developers infrastructure for building applications with different requirements. But competition among Layer-2 networks keeps increasing. Ecosystem expansion matters, yet sustainable growth requires active users, meaningful transaction demand, and applications that attract people without relying entirely on incentives.The wallet declaration measures have been temporarily shelved, and this detail gives me a bit of a familiar feeling from the previous round: when seeing news of regulatory easing, it's easy to first think positively. This time in France, the budget revenue part was rejected, so the stablecoin tax and wallet declaration measures were shelved accordingly, but the related provisions may still be reintroduced through Senate amendments.
What needs to be distinguished this time is that the shelving comes from budget obstruction, not a specific rejection of crypto measures. I prefer to see it as a pause in the regulatory process rather than a signal of an industry shift. For users who might be affected by declaration requirements, there is currently less urgency, but it cannot yet be concluded that declarations will no longer be required in the future.
Viewed in the cycle, I think this news has more impact on sentiment than on long-term rules. If the provisions reappear, then the current relaxed interpretation will need to be revised. I will keep an eye on subsequent provisions and am not in a hurry to label this as "regulatory easing."Since early October, the overall position focus has been continuously rising, and despite several rounds of pullbacks, there has been no large-scale capital exit, indicating that funds are continuously entering and positioning.
During the recent surge phase, positions quickly spiked, then slightly retreated after the peak. The current price corresponds to a position of 33,500 BTC, with a nominal value of 2.7 billion USDT.
This signal indicates that market leveraged funds have been continuously increasing their positions during this rebound, representing a strong structure of rising price and increasing positions. However, it is important to note that the pullback after the position spike means some short-term funds have chosen to take profits and exit.
Key focus going forward: If the price continues to rise and positions increase simultaneously, the bullish momentum can continue; but if the price weakens while positions remain high, it can easily trigger concentrated liquidations.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test
The leader has something to say
I view this news in the context of this week's bigger picture: Nebius will release its Q3 earnings before the market opens on November 12, a major test for the AI cloud sector. In Q2, the group revenue was $582 million, a year-over-year surge of 454%, with AI cloud revenue at $575 million, accounting for 98%, which is indeed impressive; but the community's doubts are also sharp—quarterly capital expenditure was about $5.657 billion, far exceeding revenue, EBITDA just turned positive, essentially burning cash to gain scale, and the high-yield bond market has already started closing doors to AI cloud providers.
My interpretation is: NBIS's earnings report is not a direct driver for the crypto market but acts as an emotional amplifier. The B200 spot price doubled within seven days, and new capacity was fully booked immediately, indicating real AI demand; however, tightening financing channels and capex far exceeding revenue show the business's critical issue is "whether money can continue to be borrowed." If revenue and guidance on November 12 cannot support the AI narrative, valuation cuts will spread from US AI stocks to all high-beta assets, and BTC won't escape.
BTC current price is about 80400, I have taken profits on my 30x long position today and am now watching empty-handed. My approach: no new leveraged longs before the earnings, wait for BTC to oscillate between 7900—8100; follow up if it breaks above 81190 with ETF net inflows, switch to defense if it falls below 78960. Others bet on the earnings, I first watch the results of their bets.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Today's Market Snapshot: Election Pressure Eases with a Rebound, but the "Fuel" Remains Short Covering
Dimension Current Status
Current Price Around $80,500 - 77,890 - $81,196
Fear and Greed Index 50 (Neutral), sharply up from yesterday's 34, entering the neutral zone
Liquidation Structure Approximately $560 million liquidated across the entire market in 24 hours, dominating absolutely; single-hour short liquidations once reached $378 million, accounting for 81% of that hour's liquidations
ETF Funds (November 4) Net inflow of 1.16 billion. However, IBIT still saw an outflow of 237 million **Inflow leads
The core mechanism of the rebound is clearly written in the liquidation data: after the price broke through $80,000, shorts were forced to buy to close positions, and the buy orders from liquidations pushed the price further up, forming a short-term positive feedback loop. This means the current rise is more of a passive adjustment of the leverage structure rather than an active influx of spot demand. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 Oil prices crashed directly! Dropped eight or nine points in one day, the plot twist is faster than flipping a book. Recently, due to the tense Middle East situation, oil prices stubbornly held the $100 mark, but this week they were slapped down by political winds. Let me break down what exactly happened for you guys. The US midterm elections just ended, and the Democrats won both houses of Congress. This political change had the most direct impact on the Middle East situation. The Democrats advocate ending the conflict, and Trump also stated he will not attack Iran for the time being. Seeing this, the market immediately thought the war wouldn't happen, and crude oil supply could soon recover. So funds frantically sold off; on November 4th, Brent crude oil plummeted 8.67%, falling below $95; WTI also fell below the $90 mark. Related crude oil token assets also plunged across the board, with declines over 3%. My personal view is: this plunge is completely the result of both sentiment and fundamentals hitting at once. Two layers of logic. The first is sentiment: US domestic political pressure changed, everyone thinks the war will stop, expectations changed, and bulls rushed to take profits. The second is fundamentals: global crude oil supply was already somewhat oversupplied, and once the "war premium" is removed, pricing logic immediately returns to the reality of "supply exceeding demand." However, don't think the Middle East is peaceful yet. Iran's conditions haven't been agreed upon, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hasn't fully resumed, and October's export data was even lower than September's. So, this sell-off is more about "trading expectations" 40x short position, I see this message as reinforcing bearish sentiment, but it is not enough to prove it follows the trend. Arkham detected James Wynn holding about 0.24 $BTC short position, with a screenshot showing an unrealized profit of about $26, that's the fact.
I have three principles for trading trends. First, look at the market direction, not who placed the order. This short position only reflects his choice, it cannot confirm the direction for the entire market.
Second, leverage does not equal certainty; 40x amplifies profit and loss sensitivity, not the reliability of the judgment. Third, unrealized profit is not evidence of a trend; a screenshot is just a moment in time. If onlookers treat high leverage as a strong signal, I speculate it will amplify short-term bearish sentiment but may not increase the accuracy of the judgment.
The trend is the best friend; I still wait for market confirmation and do not follow celebrities' positions. Facing this kind of message, do you now use price structure, volume, or other methods to judge the trend?$BTC is now around 80,400, up +2.5% in 24h, but it basically stalled between 80,270–80,800 this afternoon, with no direction since last night's big bullish candle that squeezed out shorts.
Looking at liquidation data makes it clearer: TRdesk reports BTC liquidations of about $270 million in the past 24h, 95% of which were shorts, but only $9.1 million in the last 12 hours, and just $460,000 in the last 4 hours. Shorts that needed to be liquidated have basically been cleared out.
$ETH is similar, with $136 million liquidated in 24h, only $1.2 million in the last 4 hours, price at 2,418, not far from the 24h high of 2,450.
OKX perpetual rates for BTC and ETH are both 0.01%, leverage hasn't been rebuilt.
My view is that the fuel has burned out; next, it will rely on spot and tonight's US market ETF flows to push it. Without new volume, sideways movement is more common than further rallies.
$BTC $ETH The most fragile link was actually the batch of people in the early session who "didn't dare to take it." The reversal came so quickly—is it a shakeout or has the capital preference really changed? When I was watching the market in the morning, my first reaction was not excitement but tension. The news of the Democratic Party's victory suppressed the market; the Nasdaq once fell 2% intraday, BTC followed down, and that drop below 76,000 was just a breath away from 75,000, with everyone in the group chat talking about even deeper levels. At that moment, the most fragile was not the price but the support—those willing to place orders suddenly became fewer, and the selling pressure seemed particularly heavy. But the script did not follow panic. BTC sharply pulled back from the low, ETH rebounded in sync, and high-beta tokens like SOL and Koru also bounced back quite well. What I was watching was not how much it rose, but the speed of the pullback: the decline took half a day, but the recovery only took a short time, indicating that low-level chips were unwilling to let go, and the short squeeze component was very obvious. What the market was actually trading here was not the election itself, but "who is still willing to hold risky assets after the bad news has landed." The morning sell-off priced in some policy concerns in advance; once the index stopped falling and capital preference shifted from defense back to offense, the pace became very fast. After BTC stabilized, ETH and altcoins had the confidence to follow the rise; conversely, if BTC breaks the previous low again, high-beta tokens will be the first to be sold off. The bullish side: volume recovered at low levels, panic selling was absorbed, and sentiment shifted from one-sided to hesitant, which is usually the starting point for a short-term recovery. The risk is also clear: a rebound that is too fast can be overextended, and if the Nasdaq weakens again, today's lower shadow will be retested, and those chasing highs will become the new fragile link. There's something quite counterintuitive: BTC rose 7%, but contract open interest actually dropped 6%, and ETH even more sharply, down over 20%.
Prices go up, but positions go down. It's not that everyone is rushing to buy; it's that the shorts are giving up and closing their positions. Once the shorts exit, prices naturally get pushed up.
This kind of rise is fast but not solid. When real money comes in, open interest will rise together. Now the long-short ratio has dropped from 2.92 to 1.53, and the number of people daring to go long has halved. The fear and greed index just hit 50, meaning fear is gone but greed is still far off.
So I didn't chase this wave; I'll wait until it stabilizes at 80,000 before making a move. BTC pulled from 75,736 to 81,196 USD, a 7.2% rebound. Among the top 100 assets on the entire network, 84 rose, and the fear and greed index went from 34 back to 50.
But the futures market is sending a contrary signal. BTC futures open interest is 20.54 billion USD, down 6.30% in 24 hours; ETH is even worse, down 22.29%. The long-short ratio dropped from 2.92 to 1.53.
Price rising, open interest falling, and long-short ratio dropping all point to one explanation: the main driver of this rally is short covering, not new buying. Shorts giving up and covering pushed the price up, but the money driving it did not stay in the market.
$BTC market dominance is 58.55%, rising 0.12 percentage points in 24 hours, with capital preference still concentrated on Bitcoin. But rising dominance does not equal net inflow—altcoins fell more, so dominance can rise anyway. A healthy broad rally would see $ETH follow and dominance decline.
Politically, the Democrats took both houses of Congress, and the market worries the CLARITY Act legislation will slow down. But the already enacted GENIUS Act and strategic Bitcoin reserves will not automatically become invalid, and the ETF pathway does not depend on any individual. What changes is the speed, not the existence of the system.
Technically, 80,000 is a key observation level, and 82,600 is the next hurdle. One point to consider: short covering consumes selling pressure, it does not create buying demand. If the spot market does not catch up after covering, the ground beneath is empty.#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
The market currently expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, with the previous figure at 29,000, better than expected, indicating that the U.S. job market has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
However, the context of this non-farm payroll is somewhat different. The Federal Reserve chose to pause rate hikes in October, with two officials even voting to continue raising rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in December is already quite high.
If tomorrow night's employment and wage data remain strong, it may further reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, putting pressure on $BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks.
$ETH $ZEC Heat dissipates, and the market falls into sideways consolidation
$PEPE is currently fluctuating around 0.000005.
After the previous theft incident triggered sell-offs, a fund swept in 45.08 billion tokens at once.
Simple calculation:
45.08 billion tokens × 0.000005, valued at about 2.25 million USD.
This large buy order of over 2 million USD quickly drove the coin price up in the short term.
The root cause of the difficulty in sustaining heat:
The market rally completely depends on this one-time buy order.
When this fund stops buying, subsequent transactions cannot continue, and the price quickly returns to the original range.
$TRUMP remains around 1.58, with no new funds entering on the voting day.
$UNI has been consolidating around 7 USD for a long time; the protocol fundamentals are profitable, but incremental buying continues to be absent.
The three targets show the same market characteristics: event-driven catalysts bring pulse-like rallies, but after the hype fades, there is a lack of follow-up buying.
Potential incoming funds are mostly still waiting for volume signals or new narratives to emerge.
#CryptoIndustryCollaboratesToProtectAssetSecurity
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ ADP data is so strong that I reversed and opened a small short position on $BTC — tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will reveal the truth
ADP added 86,000 jobs, and the ISM Services Employment Index has risen for two consecutive months, directly crushing the market's expectation for tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (60,000).
I have to pour cold water on myself first. Inflation is far from dead, the Fed held steady in October, and now the employment data is so robust, clearly showing the economy doesn't need saving. If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls also beat expectations, the December rate hike expectations will surely soar. Once US Treasury yields rise, all risk assets will take a hit.
So I'm not stubborn; I opened a small short position on $BTC following the trend, with a cost roughly above 80,000. The logic is simple: with macro data like this, short-term bearish sentiment will definitely dominate. Bitcoin is already shaky around the 80,000 mark, and once the negative data is digested, the probability of a downward smash to take some profit is very high.
But I won't get carried away. The position is small, no leverage, this is just a short-term trade betting on macro data. If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly disappoint and the market rallies sharply, I'll immediately admit my mistake, stop loss, and exit—no stubborn holding.
This is all my personal market feeling and plan, not investment advice.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin smash through 80,000 following the trend tonight, or hold firm at support? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Bitcoin’s violent rebound has handed the market a clean, if uncomfortable, test: was the midterm-driven selloff a genuine shift in risk appetite, or simply a liquidity air pocket that gave way once the political fog lifted? $BTC broke through its prior range and climbed to 81,000, while $ETH pushed straight to 2,450. The move was as abrupt as the drop that preceded it, and the sequence matters more than the levels themselves. The source narrative points to a chain of political causality. Trump lBTC was still hovering just above 80,000 in the evening; don’t mistake the daytime recovery as a free pass before the US market opens.
Watching it climb back from around 75,000 during the day looks lively, but it’s mostly shorts covering at the top. Has real money re-entered? Spot ETF has still seen net outflows in recent days, so the market doesn’t really look like "everyone believes again." The fear and greed index jumped quickly from the low 30s to around 50, flipping sentiment too fast—this kind of comfortable sideways movement is the easiest to get carried away in.
US stocks haven’t opened yet, and the quiet sideways action in the Asian late session is the easiest way to fool yourself into thinking "it’s stable." When the US market opens tonight, that 80,000 line can break just like that. Don’t chase the green line to add positions; keep some in reserve, and don’t treat the daytime rebound as a ticket to the night session.
Are you watching first tonight, or have you already got your hand on the add position button? $BTC $ETH $SOL Net profit of 126 million USD, ABTC has turned the page on its loss story this quarter. This Trump family mining company was still losing money last quarter, but now it has turned profitable, mainly relying on gains from the fair value of digital assets, and its Bitcoin holdings have also increased.
What I care more about is where the profit comes from: appreciation of book assets does not equal a stronger mining business. My judgment is that this financial report is still insufficient to prove operational improvement. Will this story continue to be written by mining, or will it continue to be dictated by the price of $BTC? What does everyone think?Big Brother Maji has made profits again this round! But this time, the risks are getting more and more exciting!
Latest position data shows that Maji is not only continuously going long on $ETH but also constantly rolling and increasing positions. With 25x leverage, the holdings have increased from over 2,000 contracts initially to nearly 6,700 contracts, with the latest average opening price around $2366, and the unrealized profit once exceeded $460,000.
However, as the position size keeps expanding, the liquidation price has also been pushed to around $2391.
Big Brother seems very confident, but I am actually more cautious about ETH's short-term trend ahead.
Personally, I prefer to wait for a rebound opportunity near $2450 before considering setting up short positions.
Why not rush to chase longs?
1️⃣ The nature of the rebound still needs observation
After the US midterm election results were released, the market experienced a quick rebound. I tend to interpret this as short covering after uncertainty dissipated, rather than confirmation of a new upward trend.
2️⃣ There is resistance near $2450
If ETH rebounds to around $2450, it may face strong selling pressure above. If it cannot break through effectively, chasing higher in the short term is not cost-effective.
3️⃣ Risks of high-leverage longs are accumulating
When a large number of high-leverage positions concentrate in a similar direction, once market sentiment reverses, chained liquidations may further amplify the decline.
My short-term trading plan:
Rebound to $2450–$2480: Observe if short signals appear.
Break below $2350: Wait for confirmation before considering following the trend to short.
Feng$SNDK staring at this sluggish candlestick on the screen, I took a deep drag of my cigarette and cursed inwardly: "Why isn't it dropping yet? This damn manipulator is way too stubborn!"
【My current market analysis】
I opened a short position around 1008, now with a slight profit of +0.35, and the forced liquidation price is far away at 1114. Seeing it stubbornly hold above 1000, I calmly realized: the 1000 round number is the psychological barrier for retail traders. After the previous sharp drop, many shorts took profits here, plus the 15-minute MACD formed a weak golden cross below the zero line, temporarily propping up the price.
The 1-hour MA20 and MA60 still press down like Mount Tai, the main trend remains bearish. This current "stubbornness" is at most a minor pullback in the downtrend. From a behavioral finance perspective, the 90% of die-hard bulls from a few days ago haven't fully given up cutting losses yet, so the manipulator must repeatedly tug at this level to wear out impatient shorts like me and fatten the bulls bottom-fishing, before delivering a fatal blow.
【My iron-blooded operation】
I'm not panicking! According to the Kelly criterion, my position is very light, and my break-even stop loss is set just above the entry price. I'm going to tough it out! The resistance at the 1020 moving average above is closely watched; if it breaks out with volume, I'll run immediately. Below, I'm waiting for the previous low at 990.8; only a volume-driven break below that will be a true waterfall crash with big profits.
In trading, patience is more precious than gold. Don't shoot the hawk without seeing the rabbit. We'll outlast this manipulator!Nasdaq approval for listing does not mean trading can start. Canary's staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) stated in the Form 8-A submitted on November 3: Nasdaq has approved the listing application; the fund aims to stake at least 90% of INJ, with custodian BitGo, and an annual fee of 1.10%. Both Injective official and Cointelegraph are reporting the same news.
The key issue is that the S-1 registration statement has not yet become effective. Listing approval is just the exchange's clearance; the public cannot buy shares yet, and there is no trading start date. Opponents interpret the 90% staking plan as the institutional channel being open; without an effective date, funds cannot flow in.
Until the S-1 becomes effective, treat this excitement as a document progress, not as the buy orders being in place. Wait for the SEC to announce effectiveness or Nasdaq to give a trading date, then see if funds follow. Snapshot around 18:03 Beijing time, Binance INJ about $8.35, 24h approximately +8.6%.
$INJ
#INJ #Injective #cryptocurrency Exchanges are delisting one after another, liquidity is in crisis! Has CORE's "countdown to zero" begun?
Multiple platforms have successively cleaned up trading pairs involving CORE, essentially due to the continuous depletion of liquidity. The chain reaction from exchange delistings is highly damaging: with each lost trading channel, order book depth thins further, bid-ask spreads widen, and the cost of exiting grows increasingly high.
To make matters worse, while external liquidity is under pressure, fundamental internal project issues remain unresolved: an 81-year continuous token release inflation pressure, meager on-chain Gas revenue, and a lack of rigid constraints on buyback commitments. Once large sell orders appear, slippage cascades can easily be triggered.
⚠️ But delisting does not mean immediate zero value. As long as the chain is still running, tokens can still circulate in wallets and on DEXs, though monetization becomes significantly more difficult. The real tipping point: if leading platforms follow suit with delistings and on-exchange buy orders continue to shrink, liquidity death will accelerate.
Holders must plan their exit strategies in advance and not hope for a sudden market reversal to save the day. Liquidity risk is often more fatal than a simple price drop.On-chain data doesn't lie: CORE's Gas fee revenue is only $200, what supports its tens of millions market cap?
The underlying on-chain data exposes a huge contradiction in CORE's valuation: the base Gas revenue of the entire public chain is extremely low, yet it carries a market cap in the tens of millions, revealing a clear shortfall in value support.
The meager base Gas revenue means the public chain itself cannot generate sufficient native income. Additionally, the project has adjusted its burn mechanism; transaction fees are no longer used for deflationary burns but instead flow to ecosystem and node incentives, making it difficult for Gas revenue to feed back into token value.
The buyback logic the project team hopes for requires the ecosystem to generate enough profit to be realized. But with severely insufficient base chain income, even if the application layer generates some transaction fees, whether they can be passed on to the CORE token remains unknown. Coupled with inflationary selling pressure from token releases lasting 81 years, the gap between valuation and fundamentals continues to widen.
This also serves as a warning to investors: don't be simply swayed by the BTCFi narrative. The valuation of a public chain ultimately must return to the real on-chain cash flow. After the narrative hype fades, the revenue shortfall will become the biggest drag on the token price.Can the BTCFi narrative save CORE? Compared to Babylon and Merlin, how much chance does it still have?
With the resurgence of BTCFi's popularity, many hope this sector can reverse CORE's decline, but a horizontal comparison with competitors shows that CORE faces significant challenges to break through.
Babylon firmly holds the native BTC staking track, attracting massive institutional capital, with a significantly leading TVL scale, and controls the most core BTC yield narrative; Merlin, as a Bitcoin ZK-Rollup, deeply cultivates BRC20 and inscription assets, with outstanding on-chain interaction and liquidity advantages.
CORE's advantage lies in being an independent L1 + EVM-compatible chain, capable of directly supporting DeFi needs after staking on-chain, suitable for retail investors who prefer to complete all operations on a single chain. But its shortcomings are fatal: an 81-year continuous token release causing high inflation, an unfulfilled buyback plan, and an architecture with only 21 validator nodes, raising decentralization concerns. Institutional funds tend to prefer Babylon.
The sector's recovery can bring short-term sentiment rebounds, but relying solely on the BTCFi narrative is unlikely to fundamentally solve the tokenomics issues. Only with real ecosystem revenue landing and effective inflation hedging does CORE have a chance to turn around; otherwise, it will most likely just follow sector fluctuations and struggle to achieve an independent major rally.Tonight's review has one main theme: the boot has dropped. The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, with the Democrats taking both the House and Senate. Logically, this should be a major upheaval, but the Dow rose about 3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and BTC pulled back from a seven-week low of 75,700 to above 80,000, around just over 80,000 during the day. ETH is above 2,400, up about 6%. Why the rise? It's like dating: the worst thing is not your partner controlling you, but your partner having a different idea every day. Now that someone is in control, you can actually sleep well. The market fears not bad outcomes, but uncertainty. Another reason is technical: short positions were liquidated about $378 million in one hour. Simply put, it's a short squeeze, not a large influx of new money. The fear and greed index returned to a neutral 50. Spot BTC ETF saw a slight net inflow on Wednesday, ending three consecutive days of outflows, but the cumulative outflows from previous days remain. This is like on the third day after a breakup, the other party sends a "Are you there?" message—not necessarily a real comeback; it depends on whether there are sincere apologies over the following days. There's also regulatory talk: the CLARITY Act was already stuck, and with the change of control in both chambers, advancing it will be more difficult. The Democrats are still discussing whether to strengthen investor protections; rules may become stricter, but that's better than no rules. Don't treat this as either bad or good news—just consider the "wedding date" postponed. Don't forget the macro picture: September CPI at 3.7% was higher than expected, and the market prices in a significant chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC. Risk assets are celebrating today, but the Fed may be quietly preparing the bill on the side. Outlook for tomorrow: watch if 80,000 can hold. If it holds, it means the buying is real; if not, it's just the inertia of a short squeeze.The rebound in major cryptocurrencies is real, but it is not uniform. $BTC, $ETH and $SOL have all moved off their lows, yet the composition of each bounce tells a different story about who is actually buying. $BTC offers the clearest case of short covering. After touching $75,600, it was pulled quickly back above $80,000, a move that suggests bids remain underneath the market but also carries the fingerprints of forced buybacks rather than fresh conviction. The immediate test is whether $80,000I smell that familiar feeling from the last round when people used corporate earnings reports to talk about a bull market again.
Trump family mining company ABTC posted a net profit of $126 million in Q3, with holdings increasing to 8,427 coins. This time, I pay more attention to the holdings: the profit turning positive mainly relies on fair value gains of digital assets, which does not mean mining is more profitable.
I judge this as a magnifier of coin exposure, not yet solid proof of a mining industry recovery. Old players, seeing mining companies hoarding coins and valuation gains supporting profits, do you feel that familiar vibe from the last round?Preparing to eat dinner in the evening, I checked the futures capital flow and found a warning signal: BTC and ETH prices are both rising, but short-term funds are starting to withdraw! DOGE is even more dominated by long-term outflows. How much strength does this rebound really have?
First, look at $BTC: $80,356, up 2.42%
After the US midterm elections, the dollar weakened, US stocks rebounded, boosting risk appetite. But futures capital data shows BTC net inflow of about $130 million in the past 24 hours, yet an outflow of $19.26 million in the last 4 hours, and a cumulative outflow of $9.16 billion in the past 30 days. Short-term support is at 80,000, with resistance at 82,000 above.
Next, look at $ETH: $2,414, up 3.97%
ETH's gains lead BTC, but capital flow shows divergence. Net inflow of about $704 million in the past 24 hours, outflow of $61.85 million in the last 4 hours, and outflow of $91.59 million in the last 6 hours. This indicates short-term enthusiasm for chasing gains is still divided. Hold 2,400 and then look to 2,500.
Finally, look at $DOGE: $0.07706, up 2.49%
DOGE futures capital flow is even more worrisome! The chart shows net outflows for most of the year, and the price rebound lacks sustained capital support. Short-term support at 0.075, break through 0.08 to look for continuation.
A few final words
24-hour inflows do not mean sustained short-term bullishness; capital divergence is the key! For this wave, I prefer to wait for confirmation and am not in a hurry to chase.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Money market funds, those things with such low returns that no one pays them any attention, are actually the first type of fund to be tokenized on the blockchain.
I always thought the first to be tokenized would be the high-growth, story-rich varieties. But it turns out that a European asset manager turned the least sexy cash fund into a token, still keeping half to sell to old clients.
Frankly, it’s a way to avoid offending either side: old clients don’t accept tokens, new clients find the process cumbersome, so they just opened both paths.
Recording shares on $ETH and having more transparent records—these terms sound great. But ordinary people only care about two things—whether there’s one less fee, or if the payment arrives a day faster? No one talks about that.
So even now, I still don’t understand who this is actually convenient for. Binance has just survived a hacker attack with losses as high as $6.3 billion and is now showing signs of recovery. Its tracked assets have increased by about $5 billion, reaching $133.12 billion. $BNB
The cash flow in the past 24 hours was positive $774 million, but the cash flow over the past 7 days is still negative $10.88 billion. Withdrawal pressure remains.
One day’s inflow is not enough to offset a week’s sell-off. Do you think Binance has regained trust? 🔥 #USJobsReportInFocus — FRIDAY DECIDES THE FED 👀
ADP October: +86K vs +69K expected. Private hiring beat.
BLS Friday 15:30 SA: +65K expected, unemployment 4.2%. September was just +29K.
JOLTS: 1.06 jobs per unemployed — still tight.
What it means for crypto:
Hot jobs = Fed hawkish = risk pressure.
Weak jobs = cut hopes = risk relief.
Don't trade the headline. Wait for confirmation, manage risk.
Your call: Hot or weak on Friday? 👇
#USJobsReportInFocus #JobsReport #Fed #Crypto #Bitcoin #OKXTomorrow night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payroll report will be released. Let's talk about my views.
The market expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, up from 29,000 previously, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Last night, ADP added 86,000 jobs, better than expected, indicating that the US job market has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
But the background for this nonfarm report is somewhat different:
The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in October, with two officials even voting to continue raising rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in December is already quite high.
If tomorrow night's employment and wage data continue to be strong, it could further reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, putting pressure on $BTC, gold, and US stocks.
Personally, I lean towards a moderate recovery in employment data, but it may not be enough to change the policy expectations already formed by the market.
So the most worth watching tomorrow night is whether risk assets can hold up if the data exceeds expectations.
After all, the rate hike expectation is already in place. What the market really fears may be stronger-than-expected employment and inflation pressures 🫡
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A European asset management company has tokenized the shares of a money market fund on-chain without cutting off the old channels.
Amundi, in collaboration with CACEIS, launched the first tokenized share for its AMUNDI FUNDS CASH EUR money market fund, using a hybrid distribution model: investors can either go through traditional channels or buy the tokenized shares J28 EUR DLT (C). The underlying ledger is the public Ethereum.
Why is the money market fund the first to go on-chain? Because it is most like cash: short term, low net asset value volatility, naturally suitable for collateral and settlement. Institutions are not looking to speculate on it, but to move idle cash onto a track that can settle 7×24 hours and serve as collateral.
Note the four words "hybrid distribution." It is both a convenience and a compromise—the custody, registration, subscription, and redemption still go through CACEIS's old channels; the token only adds an additional entry point, not a replacement. The official emphasized benefits are transparency and traceability, not returns or speed.
The real signal is that "public Ethereum" is written into the plan: using a regulated public chain for share registration means acknowledging this path is viable. $ETH thus gains an additional use unrelated to price, and $USDC and $ONDO will also be mentioned along the way.
What is worth considering: if after a year only this money market fund is on-chain, the resistance lies in custody and regulation; if stock funds are also brought on-chain, it will truly shift from an experiment to a channel. For now, it is just the first one. Binance was hacked, and 48 hours later, hackers continue to attack multiple targets in the cryptocurrency market!
According to CryptoCeek, days after the Binance incident, attacks continue targeting Mercado Bitcoin, EU organizations, BTCPay merchants, and 12 DeFi platforms. $BNB
Preliminary estimated losses exceed $146 million.
=> Crypto assets are not necessarily safe just because they are stored on the blockchain.
Five principles to protect your assets:
Only keep trading funds on exchanges; transfer long-term assets to wallets you control.
Do not save your mnemonic phrase as images, cloud notes, or on websites.
Prioritize using apps or hardware security keys for two-factor authentication.
Revoke access permissions (token approvals) on DeFi platforms that you no longer use.
Be vigilant about customer service messages, withdrawal alerts, and invitations to transfer assets to secure wallets.
Self-managing your assets lets you control your private keys but also means you bear sole responsibility for their security.
Do you think storing cryptocurrency on exchanges is safer, or is self-managing with a cold wallet more secure? BTC sits at $BTC 80,444.90 (-0.03%), holding strong after bouncing from its low of $BTC 75,690.10. Crypto always moves in waves: past crashes like 2018 and 2022 saw brutal dips before massive bull runs. History shows prices cooling off before smashing new highs like Bitcoin's peak near $BTC 84,876.00.
My ultimate all-time prediction is BTC hitting $1,000,000 per coin long term.
Will Bitcoin smash past its old record during the next big cycle? Trump's media coverage continues to be disappointing.
$BTC After more than three months, visiting Crypto.com again
According to data recorded by Arkham 1 hour ago, this entity's wallet has cumulatively deposited 4,259.
$BTC Worth $343 million USD Please visit http://Crypto.com
Surprisingly, this deposit amount is twice the previous two deposits combined, and it is also all of their remaining assets. They currently hold only 1.3 million.$BTC
Arkham reported that James Wynn holds a 40x BTC short position. I checked the quantity, 0.24 BTC.
At the current price of 80453, the nominal value is just over nineteen thousand dollars, with margin under five hundred dollars at 40x leverage. This even made it to the broadcast.
Last year, when he had tens of millions in positions, a single liquidation could drag the market sentiment down for half a day. Now I just scroll past this without stopping. The reputation remains, but the position is gone.
What really matters is the holdings. Two hours ago I recorded 33,597 BTC, now 33,582, down by fifteen BTC. The price moved from 80541 to 80453, just a few dozen dollars back and forth. No money came in or out.
The funding rate is still pinned at the 0.01% benchmark, no premium at all. 81199 was left at 11 PM last night, this morning at 9 AM a surge of 340,000 contracts hit 80886 with no follow-up, at 3 PM 260,000 contracts were pushed back to 80755.
The order book is somewhat interesting: within ±1%, buy orders total 280 million, sell orders 90 million, a 3:1 ratio. The buy side is thick but the price isn't pushed up, indicating orders are placed but not filled.
A 0.24 BTC short with five hundred dollars margin. Even whale reports have shrunk these days.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 🔷 CryptoX-ray #31: $AKE - cap $66M, FDV $290M
Volume ~$26.6M, about 40% of the cap. Circulating 22.8% out of 100 billion.
Red flag: November 21 unlock ~2.108 billion AKE (~9% of circulation). Burn and payments to stakers announced but not confirmed.
Verdict: there is volume, no demand for the platform seen. Waiting for verifiable payments. Ready for −30%.
Will the unlock crush the price? 👇Some existing and potential investors discussing Anthropic's valuation have lowered it from about $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. This is an investor valuation discussion and should not be directly written as the confirmed IPO offering price.
The drop of about 25% seems large, but it only indicates a change in the price acceptance range between both parties and cannot alone prove that it is cheap now.
What I care more about is the company's disclosed future funding arrangements: approximately $895.4 billion committed to computing power and infrastructure expenditures, of which about $69.8 billion is expected to occur within the twelve months ending September 2027.
These are cross-period commitments and cannot all be counted as current quarter expenses; however, the upcoming payment demands will affect how much financing the company needs and how fast future revenues must grow.
Demand and revenue have already shown strong momentum, but valuation still needs to consider capital costs, spending pace, and profitability. Willingness to pay a high price for growth is understandable; extending growth indefinitely easily leads to a valuation that only holds in the most optimistic scenario.
I am actually not opposed to the cooling down of valuation discussions. Investors starting to seriously talk about price and terms is more useful than just arguing over who can become the biggest AI company. The company can be excellent, but shareholder returns still depend on how much was paid and how much more needs to be invested later.
#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Gold rose 0.43%, the US dollar fell 0.28%, but BTC fell against the trend by 0.66%. External conditions are clearly favorable, so why doesn't BTC follow? 1. News. COMEX gold closed at $3,957.4, up 0.43% for the day; spot gold around $3,946.5; the US dollar index at 101.46, down 0.28% intraday; BTC at $77,187.6, down 0.66% in 24 hours and down 4.18% over the past week, with a 20-day low of $76,265.2. The three show obvious divergence. 2. Capital impact. BTC ETF latest single-day net outflow was $663.6 million, 5-day net outflow $226.5 million, 10-day net outflow $351.2 million. Gold rising and the dollar weakening should benefit risk assets, but large ETF redemptions offset the macro tailwind. The fear and greed index rose from 26 to 34, but the improved sentiment did not immediately translate into BTC buying. 3. BTC implications. Gold first attracted safe-haven funds, while BTC remains suppressed by ETF redemptions and exchange risks. This is not simply a case of "safe-haven assets winning," but a gap in BTC's own capital flow. Only when ETF outflows narrow and BTC reclaims 79,220 can it indicate that the macro tailwind is starting to transmit. Otherwise, a weaker dollar only reduces pressure, it is not an engine for price increase. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether single-day ETF outflows can drop below $100 million; second, whether the 5-day cumulative can turn positive; third, whether the dollar can continue below 102; fourth, BTSun Ge's recent moves are really baffling!
He boasts a net worth of up to $85 billion, but when it comes to raising $140 million, reports reveal he's shuffling funds around and even seems a bit strapped for cash?
First, he pledged 580 million $TRX, then issued an additional 60 million USDD, subsequently exchanging them for USDT through the official liquidity pool, and finally transferred everything to Binance to earn a 10% financial yield.
This series of operations looks like a grand financial juggling act.
On the surface, he's a glamorous figure with a net worth in the hundreds of billions, but behind the scenes, it's a complex web of pledges, exchanges, and fund movements.
The question is: how much truly free cash does Sun Ge have? Of the so-called $85 billion net worth, how much is real hard capital?
The financial story behind $TRX might be even more worth watching than the market itself!The contract price rising does not mean institutions are buying
Last night the contract surged sharply, and many thought big money had entered.
But the spot ETF data on the same day tells a different story.
How this number is calculated:
$BTC net inflow is 9.63 million, with Fidelity contributing 30 million.
BlackRock ran nearly 26 million in the same period, hedging between the two sides.
Common misinterpretations:
$ETH shows a superficial net inflow of 23,300, which looks like a positive shift.
BlackRock sold nearly 100 million in a single day, and Grayscale is buying.
This is turnover, not adding positions.
$SOL’s three data points are all zero; institutions don’t even provide numbers.
The contract side is lively, but no one is placing orders on the spot side.
Contracts reflect sentiment; spot is real money.
When several institutions turn positive together someday, that will be the bottom.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $BTC $ETH