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#Sony Q2 operating profit grows 45%, raises full-year performance guidance 78446, ETF redemption wave quietly picked up by institutions
Strategy continues to accumulate amid ongoing market redemptions, the market stuck around 77000, all outcomes await the non-farm payroll release. LTC opened a 20x long at 53.48 and gained 43.93%, its elasticity has outperformed the broader market.
ETH held the selling pressure at 2260, and 2158, which is the 200-day moving average, is a critical support level that must not be broken this round. On-chain Gas fees have dropped to multi-year lows, and accumulated positive factors have been suppressed by sentiment, unable to be released.
Pull up the risk control panel for your held contracts and recalibrate your stop-loss range against this key support.
$BTC $LTC $ETH This morning I came across a post about mining nostalgia, and my fingers paused for two seconds. Do you still remember the first coin you thought "this time I really caught it"? The poster dug up old records from back then, waking up every day to click mining first, watching who turned off their machine and who increased power. $CORE slid from a peak of $6.9 all the way down to $0.011, a nearly 99% loss over four years. My first reaction after reading wasn’t regret, but recalling that familiar market bustle: suddenly a sector’s entire group looks up, the chat starts spreading "if you miss it, it’s gone," candlesticks keep pushing up, but the real support holding the price is as thin as paper. This is the most deceptive aspect of sector strength and weakness. On the surface, it’s a collective rally, but inside, only a few tokens are carrying the flag, while the rest are just pulled along by sentiment. The mining narrative was the same back then; everyone talked about computing power, output, and the "second Bitcoin," but what really decided the outcome was never the number of participants, but whether there was sustained new demand to absorb the continuously released chips. Heat can create an opening, but support determines the close. Looking at the current rhythm, when BTC stabilizes key ranges, funds will first test altcoins with strong narratives, quickly sorting out the main line and the runners-up within the sector. Strong tokens show volume and buying on pullbacks, which is a bullish path; but if it’s just a broad rise mixed with insufficient volume and the leader weakens causing the whole sector to retreat, that’s a typical false rally. What I care more about is the performance during pullbacks: who still has support when prices fall, and who just rode the wave of sentiment. The unseen risk lies in $HYPE Institutional selling pressure mounts, 78 is the last line of defense
HYPE recently pulled back nearly 3%, after previously hitting 98 and continuing to weaken. More importantly, the price is approaching the super trend line at 78, a clear dividing line between bulls and bears. Since October 30, a16z has transferred about $12.63 million worth of HYPE to exchanges, which the market interprets as institutional cashing out pressure, increasing the risk of retail investors blindly bottom-fishing. Strategy focuses only on 78: if it breaks below, the trend weakens and one should decisively exit; if repeated dips still hold, it indicates ongoing support, so small positions can be used to test rebounds, but heavy positions are not advisable.
$ZEC Upgrade implemented, 1440 is the key switch
ZEC rose slightly by 1% near 1320, after falling from a high of 1697, now consolidating around 1300. As a strong coin that nearly doubled previously, volatility remains high. The Zcash NU7 upgrade has been activated, reducing block time to 25 seconds, providing fundamental news, but whether it can attract incremental funds depends on the 1440 resistance. Do not chase highs before breaking through: consider going long only after stabilizing above 1440; if a rebound at 1440 is resisted, light short positions can be taken with strict stop-loss. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Nasdaq index rose by 1.44%, yet the three major storage giants simultaneously dropped by 5% to 8%. This is not a split in market sentiment, but rather two completely different trading logics clashing on the same board. 🧐 The Nasdaq's weight rests on software and cloud giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. When they rise, the index remains stable; the storage sector has a limited share in the index, so even if it collectively plunges, it’s hard to drag the overall market down. What’s really worth questioning is: why are cloud giants being bought while storage is being sold off? The most direct driver is the pricing differentiation under election expectations. After the Democrats took control of the House and Senate, the market began pricing in tighter approval and regulatory paths for data centers, power, and new AI projects. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple’s profits come from cash flow of existing cloud businesses and do not rely on continuously building new data centers; whereas Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix’s orders are deeply tied to new computing power construction, so if expansion slows, storage demand expectations are downgraded and funds will immediately withdraw. ✅ vs. ❌ essentially reflects the divide between “existing cash flow” and “incremental capital expenditure.” On a deeper level, storage itself is a cyclical stock. The script of shortage → order explosion → capacity expansion and factory construction → supply increase, demand lag → valuation crash has been repeatedly played out over many years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq holds a basket of cloud platforms and consumer assets with more durable demand, so the index can still hold up even when semiconductor hardware collectively plunges. This is the structural reason why storage is being sold off separately. My judgment is: this round of storage correction looks more like a mid-cycle valuation adjustment rather than a cycle peak confirmation First, let me talk about my own positions. My $SNDK long at 1145 is still open. It’s false to say I’m not upset when it broke below 1000. If 975 can’t hold, it might drop to the 700s; this coin really lacks momentum right now.
As for $BTC, after a strong rally, it’s stuck oscillating between 80000 and 81000, with selling pressure above and a bunch of FOMO buyers scrambling below. I tend to wait a bit longer; even if I’m itching to trade, I’ll wait for 78000. Spot can enter anytime, and extending the cycle won’t make much difference. Next, we’ll see if 82000 can hold.
$ETH dropped to 2170 this round, then bounced back to 2450—a 300-point move, likely forced liquidations of shorts. There’s still room; 2560 is a key hurdle. Long term, I see a bull market, but bulls often pull back, so you have to manage the rhythm yourself.
Non-farm payrolls, midterm elections, and JPMorgan’s long-term forecasts are still uncertain right now. #NonFarmPayrollsUpcoming (December rate hike expectations) #USMidtermElections (Democrats winning both chambers) #BTCEnteringJPMorganLongTermForecast (institutional allocation remains cautious)
This is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. Stock market plummets. Why the crash? The answer is here. First, let's talk about the major indexes: Nasdaq weakened sharply, flashing a drop of over 4%. The trigger was storage semiconductors like SNDK and MU, which collectively plunged, with declines reaching as high as 15%! Why such a severe drop? I mentioned the core reason in the afternoon US stock analysis: changes in data center policies. The market logic is clear: Texas flipped blue, and the new governor, Enohosa, announced a suspension and halt of all data center approvals, canceled related tax incentives, and tightened access again. Other blue states are also showing tendencies to follow suit. This means the difficulty of building new data centers has greatly increased, directly lowering semiconductor shipment expectations. MU and SNDK led the crash, dragging down the US stock market; the weakening US market then pulled down global risk assets, and Bitcoin also came under pressure. It's truly a battle of giants, with retail investors suffering; even hiding in the crypto space can't escape the impact of the midterm elections. However, according to historical patterns, big drops around midterm elections are common, so this is not unexpected. But this time, the winning side directly hit the stock market fundamentals, and the semiconductor sector, with its high leverage and sensitivity to volatility, suffered even more damage. One point worth noting: historically, after big drops around midterms, the US stock market often presents good buying opportunities. You might consider buying indexes or Bitcoin in batches on dips, as there will be chances for recovery later, but patience and time are key. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SOXL $SNDK $NVDA #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 The Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, holding the power of appropriation, and the market quickly traded on the logic of easing Middle East conflict tensions. The previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium was released in concentration, driving Brent crude below $95. The market's core judgment is that the Democrats can constrain the White House's expansion of strikes against Iran through military funding and war powers legislation, significantly lowering the black swan probability of a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Funds have preemptively cashed in on safe-haven longs.
However, this decline is priced on expectations and does not mean an immediate ceasefire. Iran's stance remains tough, Israel's demands are still an important variable, the risk of channel disruption has not completely disappeared, and crude oil supply and demand remain tight, providing fundamental support on the downside. Coupled with macro factors such as fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, oil price volatility is further amplified. CTA trend funds follow the short side, exacerbating the current decline.
The subsequent market will shift from a unilateral conflict escalation to a wide-range oscillation pattern. Two key focuses: first, whether the Democrats can implement appropriation restrictions and promote negotiations; second, whether there are substantive signals of US-Iran easing. If easing expectations fail, the geopolitical premium could quickly rebound at any time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $WLD continues to show weakness on the higher timeframes after facing another rejection around the $0.58–$0.60 resistance zone.
Bearish momentum remains dominant, with $0.29–$0.33 emerging as the next major downside target.
I'll be monitoring the reaction at this zone. A strong bounce could trigger a recovery, but losing $0.29 would expose the lower support area around $0.23–$0.26.
#SonyQ2ProfitUp45% $META Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 595 - 605 (close to the current price resistance).
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks through 620.
· Take Profit: First target 588 (near previous low), second target 570.
⚠️ Note: There is an extremely sharp cliff-like plunge (drop over 7%), MACD dead cross below zero line with strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for rebound to confirm resistance, use light positions with stop loss.$TSM Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 365 - 370 (close to the resistance just above the current price).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 380.
· Take Profit: First target 359 (near previous low), second target 350.
⚠️ Note: There is an extremely sharp cliff-like plunge (nearly 10% drop), MACD dead cross below zero axis with very strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for a rebound to confirm resistance, use light positions with stop loss.Crypto Market Analysis Host: @梁老表 The bearish impact of macro politics and the US stock market decline clarifies the current broad-range oscillation market characterization 1. Macro and Market Trend Analysis 1. Macro Politics and External Market Bearish Factors US Midterm Elections Impact: The Democratic Party gained control of the Senate and House, suppressing Trump and his interest groups, making it difficult for the crypto market to rally in the short term. US Stocks and Crypto Market Linkage: US stocks have been continuously falling recently without stopping, with a risk of accelerated decline, causing funds to exit early; the crypto market cannot remain unaffected and follows the US stock decline. Historical Extreme Market Review: Mentioning historical extreme crashes like March 12 and May 19, noting that although US institutions have entered the market, black swan events must still be guarded against; nothing is impossible in financial markets. 2. Market Characterization Broad-range Oscillation Dominates: The market is likely in a broad-range oscillation (monkey market) phase, with both large rises and falls limited; if this scenario holds, the oscillation may continue until the first quarter of next year. 3. Specific Coin Risk Warning SOL Expected to Perform Mediocrely: Solana accumulated many trapped positions during the last rally, and current capital attention is less than Ethereum’s, so its performance this round is expected to be average. Sandisk One-sided Downtrend Risk: Sandisk has broken new lows with strong bearish momentum, in a one-sided downtrend; long positions are strictly prohibited.1. How much did it actually drop tonight? On the same night, the entire storage sector collectively crashed: $MU -13.25%, Western Digital WDC -14.68%, Seagate STX -15.08%, Semiconductor ETF SMH -8.61%, AMD -14.48%, $NVDA -6.80%. Market cap evaporated from $347 billion in June to about $121 billion — $226 billion lost. This figure exceeds the GDP of many countries. But please note one thing: even after such a drop, $SNDK is still up about +260% year-to-date.
2. The trigger: a tweet. The real ignition point was on November 4, not in the earnings report, nor in NAND prices. Newly elected Arizona congresswoman Yassamin Ansari posted on X, with the core proposition that on the first day Democrats enter Congress, the top agenda should be to pause AI data center expansion. Just that one post. Along with several newly elected governors promising tighter data center approvals during their campaigns, the market suddenly realized: full Democratic control brings not only political changes but also the possibility that the assumption of "unlimited expansion" of AI infrastructure could be interrupted by policy. Why such a big market reaction? Because SanDisk is purely a NAND flash company, with data center revenue of $4.8 billion in a single quarter, a year-over-year growth of about 1,700% — its valuation is entirely based on $INTC Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted near 54.50 - 55.00 (close to the current price resistance).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks above 56.00.
· Take Profit: First target 52.47 (near previous low), second target 51.00.
⚠️ Note: There is an extremely sharp cliff-like plunge (nearly 7% drop), MACD dead cross below zero line with strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for a slight rebound to confirm resistance before entering, use light positions with stop loss.I always thought that crypto stocks were just shadows of the coins, that when coins fell, stocks would follow. Last night I took a look and found it was the opposite.
Stocks fell much harder than the coins. BMNR dropped 11.73%, CRCL dropped 11.35%, MSTR dropped 10.12%, COIN dropped 9.37%, all double-digit drops. The real coin IBIT only fell 5.49%.
The most fragile isn't $BTC, but the companies doing business around BTC. The miners, holders, and exchanges all took the hit for the coins. People bought them originally thinking "if the coin goes up, I go up even more," but now they realize the other side is "if the coin falls, I fall even worse."
So am I really betting on the coin, or am I betting on someone else's balance sheet?Professional Edition (Blogger's research report style, directly copied)
$XTZ — Tezos
Tezos relies on an on-chain governance mechanism, driving protocol iteration and upgrades through community participation. This governance model provides a unique development paradigm for the blockchain ecosystem, freeing it from the constraints of centralized decision-making.
To evaluate the project's long-term development, focus on continuously tracking core indicators: on-chain governance participation rate, developer ecosystem activity, DApp adoption penetration, and the underlying network security status. These collectively help comprehensively assess the project's evolution pace and value potential.Event: Nvidia plunges 7.3%, Nasdaq crashes over 1,000 points, US stock market fear index VIX volatility rises 40% intraday. First, let's present the original information: The US stock market fear index VIX rose 40.0% intraday, reaching 23.28. The S&P 500 index's decline widened to 2.4%; the Dow Jones fell over 700 points, a drop exceeding 1.3%; the Nasdaq dropped over 1,000 points, a decline exceeding 3.9%; the Nasdaq 100 index fell 1,300 points, a drop exceeding 4.5%; the semiconductor index dropped about 900 points, a decline of 8.7%. According to ChainCatcher and Gate market data, Nvidia fell 7.3%, marking its largest intraday drop since April 2025. The same news can have very different outcomes under different liquidity conditions, so first look at the money, then the conclusion; Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 76,248.90, 24h -5.08% · ETH current price 2,274.58, 24h -6.16% · Spot USDT: 48 pairs up / 298 pairs down (with trading volume ≥ $100,000) Next, the real focus should be on these points: 1) Whether the volume can catch up — event-driven moves often have more convincing trading volume on the second day than the first; 2) Whether other targets in the same sector move along — if only a single asset moves, it's usually just its own issue; 3) The continued sell-off suggests $BTC could be heading toward $75K, with little room for optimism in the short term. Still, I see this dip as a potential buying opportunity. The decision is yours.
Pharaoh is keeping a close watch on $ETH , $ZEC , and $BTC.
#USJobsReportInFocus Market conditions are turning increasingly bearish.
Nasdaq and major indices are seeing sharp declines, putting additional pressure on $BTC . My key support level has now broken.
Oil prices remain weak, and bond yields are also moving lower.
The broader picture hasn't changed much, but the chances of a liquidity sweep toward $75,000 are now higher.
Still focused on accumulating.
#ModernaQ3VaccineSales $TSLA Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 355 - 360 (close to the current price resistance).
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks through 370.
· Take Profit: First target 346 (near previous low), second target 340.
⚠️ Note: In case of an extremely sharp cliff-like drop (over 10%), with MACD dead cross below zero line and very strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for rebound to confirm resistance, use light positions with stop loss.$WLD
Why is the concern over AI regulation hitting WLD first?
After the news of the Democrats sweeping Congress, Nvidia dropped 7.6%, Arm fell over 10%, and AI hardware suffered heavy losses. On the crypto side, WLD dropped from 0.396 to 0.3463 in 24 hours, down 12.6%, worse than TAO's 7.8% and SUI's 9%.
A related note: WLD is associated with Altman, the same father as OpenAI. When policy risks arise, the market first cuts the one that looks most like the AI narrative.
At 23:00 on this 1-hour candle, 75.89 million contracts traded, $26.45 million. At 19:00, it was only 6.95 million contracts. Eleven times the volume. The low touched 0.3404.
However, holdings are only 88.55 million tokens, $30.61 million. The perpetual contract saw 430 million tokens, $150 million in turnover over 24 hours, about five times the holdings turnover. This pool can't hold institutions; it's all short-term money fighting inside.
The fee rate is still negative, -0.0151%, shorts are paying. The order book ±1% shows 450,000 buy and 500,000 sell, so thin that a few tens of thousands of dollars can push the price by one point.
In previous times, I was repeatedly shaken in such thin pools; this time, I just watch and don't act.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SPCX Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted near 124.50 - 125.50 (close to the resistance just above the current price).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 128.00.
· Take Profit: First target 122.72 (near previous low), second target 120.00.
⚠️ Note: There is an extremely severe cliff-like plunge (drop over 10%), MACD dead cross below zero line with strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for a slight rebound to confirm resistance before entering, use light positions with stop loss."Sandisk-style Top: It’s Not a Sharp Drop First, But a 'Stuck' Rise First"
For high-volatility assets like Sandisk, the most valuable part to study isn’t the main upward phase, but the high-level sideways movement that "still looks strong." Think of it as a structural chart: price rapidly rises, the first volume surge stalls the rise, the second rebound shrinks in volume, and the third can’t even reach the previous high. The story may remain the same, but the trading structure has changed—the buyers need increasingly stronger reasons to pay the same price.
To judge if a strong asset is weakening, I look at three steps in order: first, the highs—if it fails to surpass the previous high twice in a row, it means supply above is stabilizing; second, volume—rising with shrinking volume and falling with expanding volume indicates weakening chip support; third, the lows—if the raised lows hold, it’s still strong consolidation, but once broken and not recovered within three days, the structure is considered broken.
Applying this ruler to BTC, don’t ask about target prices yet. Mark the most recent raised low, then mark the previous high: the price is in between, just oscillating; a volume-shrinking retest of the low without breaking it is strong; a volume-expanding breakout above the previous high with a retest that holds is a new trend. The thing to watch out for most is "good reasons but no price movement"—buying power failure often appears earlier than a big bearish candle.
The takeaway from Sandisk for crypto is simple: tops aren’t formed by sharp drops, but by a decline in buying efficiency first. (Sandisk is a US stock; here I only borrow its price structure to explain the method.)
Discussion: Between "good news but no rise" and "bad news but no fall," which do you trust more?
I use the former to warn of tops and the latter to confirm bottoms: tops look at whether buyers can still push prices, bottoms look at whether sellers can still suppress prices.
Poll: To judge BTC weakening, what do you look at first—A. Highs no longer rising; B. Rebounds continuously shrinking in volume; C. Raised lows broken; D. Good news but no rise.
I choose C. A, B, and D are warnings; C is structural confirmation.
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion $UNI
Uniswap v4 introduces something more interesting than another liquidity pool upgrade: customizable hooks. Developers can attach specialized logic to pools, enabling features such as dynamic fees and customized trading mechanisms. This expands the protocol's design possibilities, but innovation must translate into useful liquidity and trading activity. Developer experimentation is valuable; sustainable economic demand is the harder test. Uniswap Developers +1$TRX
TRON's resource model makes its token economics particularly interesting. Transactions use Bandwidth, while smart-contract execution consumes Energy. Both resources can be obtained through staking TRX or delegation. This creates a direct connection between network usage and the token's utility. However, the bigger question is whether application demand remains strong enough to support long-term network activity. TRON Developer Hub +1$ETH
2300 broke, I won't catch it at this level.
At 23:00, this 1-hour candle opened at 2343.2, plunged straight down to 2264.64, and closed at 2278.49. Volume was 11.26 million contracts, $2.59 billion. The two previous candles had volumes of 5.95 million and 1.42 million contracts respectively, one candle outweighing eight.
Spot price dropped from 2437.14 in 24 hours, down 6.3%, with a low of 2266.73. At the same time, the Nasdaq fell 3%, VIX surged 47%, and storage stocks in the US market dropped by over ten points. Risk assets were all hit together.
I changed my reading on open interest. At 21:00, perpetual contracts still had 644,800 ETH worth $1.54 billion, now only 561,400 ETH worth $1.277 billion remain, down 83,000 ETH, about 13%. The longs didn’t hold on stubbornly; they were swept out.
The fee rate is still hanging at the 0.01% baseline, not turned negative. Shorts didn’t take this opportunity to squeeze in and accumulate.
Order book ±1% sell orders are 9.36 million, buy orders 3.99 million, more than double.
I tend to think this kind of volume-driven dip will take a long time to grind out. I’ll wait until the 1-hour volume drops below 3 million contracts before considering, not catching a falling knife during the spike.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The impact of the Binance hack incident is far from over, with core reasons for potentially more severe and unpredictable crashes ahead.
The short-term rebound from this event is merely the market's temporary self-comfort treating it as a "one-time accident"; however, its essence is a state-level APT-initiated digital currency war in action, with hidden risks that are chained, delayed, and unpredictable, and a crash could strike again at any time.
1. Hacker chips are timed sell pressure; the selling rhythm is completely uncontrollable and not a one-time dump.
Lazarus (TraderTraitor) tactics do not involve immediate dumping after the incident but rather a months-long or even cross-quarter money laundering and selling pipeline: splitting into thousands of anonymous intermediary wallets, cross-chain jumps, coin-mixing protocols for laundering, specifically waiting for market recovery and sentiment repair to realize profits in batches.
- Stablecoins have been frozen, but native tokens like BTC, ETH, and STRK lack issuer blacklist authority, making tracking easy to break off;
- On-chain analysts can only monitor a small portion of already exchanged addresses, with a large amount of silent chips hidden in the dark. When and how much to sell is entirely decided by the hackers, with no one able to predict in advance;
- Hackers have state-backed funds, disregarding short-term profits and losses, prioritizing cashing out for foreign exchange. Any slight market rebound becomes their selling window, and every rebound could be smashed through.
2. The underlying cracks in industry trust have formed; the withdrawal wave is a slow, continuous bleeding, not ending in a day or two.
Although Binance used its own funds to cover losses and protect users' account assets, avoiding an FTX-style instant bankruptcy stampede, the "security myth" of centralized exchanges has been shattered. Institutions and whales have formed a new consensus: even top global exchanges have fatal weaknesses in hot wallet protection under state-level long-term social engineering infiltration and permission hijacking. Funds will continue to slowly withdraw from CEXs, moving to cold wallets and self-custody. This exit is not a single-day panic but a long-term outflow of existing funds. Once a concentrated withdrawal expectation ferments and liquidity rapidly dries up, no massive sell-off is needed to trigger a liquidity stampede, causing an unsupported cliff-like drop.
3. Regulatory countermeasures are delayed negative factors that could strike suddenly at any time.
The U.S. has classified this incident as a North Korean hacker money laundering case and will leverage this largest theft in history to tighten the entire crypto regulatory framework:
- Tightening exchange custody qualifications, strengthening sanctions on on-chain coin-mixing tools, upgrading KYC and fund tracing requirements;
- Raising scrutiny standards for ETFs and institutional entry, delaying or even canceling the expected institutional incremental funds;
Regulatory policies will not be implemented all at once on the incident day but will be gradually studied and rolled out in batches, constituting a "black box negative" that could land anytime, with timing and intensity impossible to predict precisely in advance.
4. It sets a bad precedent: state-level hacker attacks will be priced by the market as normalized risks.
This attack proves that the social engineering + AI-assisted infiltration and signature permission hijacking tactics are mature and replicable. The market will reprice a long-term risk: the next top exchange hack, unknown when or which one. As long as this expectation takes root, risk premiums will continue to rise. Any minor disturbance (small exchange hack, on-chain vulnerability exposure) will trigger collective capital flight, amplifying the decline. The crash trigger points are highly random and cannot be predicted precisely in advance.
5. Resonating with existing negative factors, forming a multi-layered selling force.
This event will not act alone but will stack with existing negatives:
- Macro: stronger USD, delayed rate cut expectations, risk asset preference declines;
- Token chips: STRK hacker chips combined with large monthly unlocks, ETH staking unlocks, and declining ecosystem revenues for most tokens;
- Underlying crypto narratives: BTC and ETH elliptic curve quantum long-term risks will be amplified again during weak market phases;
Once multiple negatives resonate simultaneously, buying support will be insufficient, combined with high-leverage contract forced liquidations, the downward pressure will far exceed the initial incident drop, constituting an unpredictable resonant crash.
6. An easily overlooked point: liquidity confidence collapse will cause "priced but no buyers."
Crypto prices heavily rely on internal exchange market makers and cross-market capital allocation. After the top exchanges' security trust is damaged, market makers will proactively shrink capital and reduce liquidity supply. After liquidity thins, even a medium-sized sell order can cause a deep price drop, which is the "sudden violent crash" everyone sees. This liquidity risk is the hardest to predict.$LTC
Litecoin represents a different side of the cryptocurrency market: simplicity, established infrastructure, and a long-standing focus on payments. Its challenge is maintaining relevance while newer networks compete through smart contracts, application ecosystems, and alternative payment experiences. Longevity is an advantage, but continued usefulness depends on real-world payment demand rather than historical recognition alone.Last night I opened a $BTC short position, with a maximum drawdown of 20%, held firm, and set a take profit at a 78% drop. Unexpectedly, it just hit the take profit. When the US stock market opened tonight, I watched the market for two or three minutes and then set a small position to short $DOGE at 33x leverage and long $SONY at 10x leverage. Dogecoin is bearish down to 0.69, Sony is bullish up to 30. Everyone, control your hands; when the profit reaches half, close half to secure profits, and gamble with the rest.
#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 The impact of the Binance hack incident is far from over, with core reasons for potentially more severe and unpredictable crashes ahead.
The short-term rebound from this event is merely the market's temporary self-comfort treating it as a "one-time accident"; however, its essence is a state-level APT-initiated digital currency war in action, with hidden risks that are chained, delayed, and unpredictable, and a crash could strike again at any time.
1. Hacker chips are timed sell pressure; the selling rhythm is completely uncontrollable and not a one-time dump.
Lazarus (TraderTraitor) tactics do not involve immediate dumping after the incident but rather a months-long or even cross-quarter money laundering and selling pipeline: splitting into thousands of anonymous intermediary wallets, cross-chain jumps, coin-mixing protocols for laundering, specifically waiting for market recovery and sentiment repair to realize profits in batches.
- Stablecoins have been frozen, but native tokens like BTC, ETH, and STRK lack issuer blacklist authority, making tracking easy to break off;
- On-chain analysts can only monitor a small portion of already exchanged addresses, with a large amount of silent chips hidden in the dark. When and how much to sell is entirely decided by the hackers, with no one able to predict in advance;
- Hackers have state-backed funds, disregarding short-term profits and losses, prioritizing cashing out for foreign exchange. Any slight market rebound becomes their selling window, and every rebound could be smashed through.
2. The underlying cracks in industry trust have formed; the withdrawal wave is a slow, continuous bleeding, not ending in a day or two.
Although Binance used its own funds to cover losses and protect users' account assets, avoiding an FTX-style instant bankruptcy stampede, the "security myth" of centralized exchanges has been shattered. Institutions and whales have formed a new consensus: even top global exchanges have fatal weaknesses in hot wallet protection under state-level long-term social engineering infiltration and permission hijacking. Funds will continue to slowly withdraw from CEXs, moving to cold wallets and self-custody. This exit is not a single-day panic but a long-term outflow of existing funds. Once a concentrated withdrawal expectation ferments and liquidity rapidly dries up, no massive sell-off is needed to trigger a liquidity stampede, causing an unsupported cliff-like drop.
3. Regulatory countermeasures are delayed negative factors that could strike suddenly at any time.
The U.S. has classified this incident as a North Korean hacker money laundering case and will leverage this largest theft in history to tighten the entire crypto regulatory framework:
- Tightening exchange custody qualifications, strengthening sanctions on on-chain coin-mixing tools, upgrading KYC and fund tracing requirements;
- Raising scrutiny standards for ETFs and institutional entry, delaying or even canceling the expected institutional incremental funds;
Regulatory policies will not be implemented all at once on the incident day but will be gradually studied and rolled out in batches, constituting a "black box negative" that could land anytime, with timing and intensity impossible to predict precisely in advance.
4. It sets a bad precedent: state-level hacker attacks will be priced by the market as normalized risks.
This attack proves that the social engineering + AI-assisted infiltration and signature permission hijacking tactics are mature and replicable. The market will reprice a long-term risk: the next top exchange hack, unknown when or which one. As long as this expectation takes root, risk premiums will continue to rise. Any minor disturbance (small exchange hack, on-chain vulnerability exposure) will trigger collective capital flight, amplifying the decline. The crash trigger points are highly random and cannot be predicted precisely in advance.
5. Resonating with existing negative factors, forming a multi-layered selling force.
This event will not act alone but will stack with existing negatives:
- Macro: stronger USD, delayed rate cut expectations, risk asset preference declines;
- Token chips: STRK hacker chips combined with large monthly unlocks, ETH staking unlocks, and declining ecosystem revenues for most tokens;
- Underlying crypto narratives: BTC and ETH elliptic curve quantum long-term risks will be amplified again during weak market phases;
Once multiple negatives resonate simultaneously, buying support will be insufficient, combined with high-leverage contract forced liquidations, the downward pressure will far exceed the initial incident drop, constituting an unpredictable resonant crash.
6. An easily overlooked point: liquidity confidence collapse will cause "priced but no buyers."
Crypto prices heavily rely on internal exchange market makers and cross-market capital allocation. After the top exchanges' security trust is damaged, market makers will proactively shrink capital and reduce liquidity supply. After liquidity thins, even a medium-sized sell order can cause a deep price drop, which is the "sudden violent crash" everyone sees. This liquidity risk is the hardest to predict.Democrats want an AI ban!?
On November 4, U.S. Representative Yasmin Ansari (Arizona) wrote on social media: "The Democrats need to put a pause on the development of advanced artificial intelligence at the top of the agenda on day one, regulate the out-of-control industry, and ban artificial superintelligence." This post was published less than 24 hours after the Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
The next day, Elon Musk responded with the phrase "It's a Brave New World," referencing Huxley's dystopian novel title, with obvious irony. This is both an ideological statement and a risk warning for an asset class: when politics begins legislating the boundaries of technology, valuations are no longer determined solely by computing power and cash flow.
Notably, the "ban on artificial superintelligence" called for by Ansari is not a spontaneous proposal. The Senate version S.5493 was introduced by Bernie Sanders on September 23, and the House version H.R.10538 was introduced by Casar on September 24; both are currently in "Introduced" status and have not yet passed committee review. Ansari herself is one of the co-sponsors of the "ASI Prohibition Act of 2026." In other words, the Democrats' legislative tools were already in place before the election; the election results only provided procedural space to advance these tools, not to create new policy intentions.
According to the House version H.R.10538, ASI refers to systems with the following characteristics: first, AI architectures that achieve or exceed human cognitive performance and capabilities across a broad range of domains and tasks, or systems that can be easily modified to exhibit such capabilities; second, AI systems capable of planning and executing actions that undermine human dominance or even overthrow or disrupt the U.S. government system.
The bill requires a complete pause on all advanced AI development until a dedicated federal regulatory agency is operational and clear regulations and model review mechanisms are established. Penalties for violations include forced dissolution of involved companies and up to 20 years of federal imprisonment for individuals, with sentencing standards comparable to current major crimes involving illegal nuclear weapons development. Furthermore, jurisdiction is not limited to within the United States; the bill explicitly lists "global prohibition of superintelligence" as a U.S. foreign policy goal, requiring the U.S. government to actively seek international agreements to strengthen ally cooperation and implement strict export controls to block any possibility of developing artificial superintelligence anywhere in the world.
However, the bill's core concept, "artificial superintelligence" (ASI), lacks an operational technical definition. AInvest's commentary hits the nail on the head: the proposed banned subject "has no recognized technical definition," which is not a semantic footnote but the core of the entire deal. The U.S. Treasury Department previously noted in its foreign investment restriction proposals that the relevant terms "should not be interpreted as implying frontier or superhuman capability thresholds." If "superintelligence" cannot be quantified as a testable threshold, then enforcement of the "ban" will heavily rely on regulatory discretion rather than a clear legal boundary. For AI asset valuation, this ambiguity itself constitutes a risk premium: investors cannot precisely price a ban with unclear boundaries and can only discount for overall "regulatory uncertainty." Political pressure is mounting: WLFI and TRUMP face investigation risks, will BNB be implicated?
The new U.S. Congress has not yet officially taken office, but political scrutiny of the Trump family's crypto businesses is already intensifying. $WLFI and $TRUMP have become focal points, and $BNB, which is connected to the USD1 ecosystem, may also face indirect impact:
1. It has been reported that the UAE invested $500 million in WLFI, and subsequently the U.S. approved the export of advanced AI chips to the UAE, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest.
2. The Trump family has gained huge profits through crypto projects like $WLFI and $TRUMP, and related business activities are receiving increased attention.
The market has already shown clear reactions:
- $WLFI dropped nearly 10% in a single day, with weak buying support.
- $TRUMP fell about 20%, with more obvious short-term selling pressure.
As for $BNB, due to its connection with the USD1 ecosystem and CZ's presidential pardon background, it may be affected by political public opinion in the future.
However, BNB has a large market cap and a relatively mature ecosystem, so its overall risk resistance remains strong.
Technical analysis of BNB:
- Key support: $700–708
- Resistance above: $730–760
- 200-day moving average: about 700
#USJobsReportInFocus Today BTC staged a textbook "short squeeze party": surged about 5% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $81,105, currently at $80,700 — reclaiming the 80,000 mark for the first time since losing it on October 28. The bears delivered a tragic annual performance: $745 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts liquidated at $499 million, nearly 70% — even data platforms noted "excessive short positions are a typical feature of a short squeeze." Contract trading volume surged 68% to $255.9 billion, long-short ratio at 50.92:49.08, market sentiment flipped from "funeral parlor" to "Disco" in seconds. However, the afternoon session had a slight flaw: in the last 4 hours, longs were liquidated by $13.05 million vs shorts $4.51 million — the bulls chasing highs are now feeling the cold wind at the peak.
Forecast: reclaiming 80,000 is a strong tonic, but $81,100 signals a short-term top. If the pullback stays above 79,500–80,000, there is hope to retest 82,000–83,000 (the breakout zone at the end of October); if it falls below 79,000, the short squeeze bonus is void, returning to muddy consolidation. Strategy: don’t stand guard at the peak, wait for a pullback to re-enter.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 1. Short term (1–2 months, Q4) Range: approximately $25.0–30.3 fluctuating to digest gains • Current phase: Earnings report boost triggered a rebound; short-term valuation (TTM about 22x) has risen, some institutions believe a pullback to digest is needed, Bernstein gives a neutral target around $26. ◦ Bullish scenario: If the year-end holiday season and major titles like "GTA6" drive game revenue volume and transaction volume continues to expand, holding above $28.3 could lead to challenging $30.3 (near one-year high). ◦ Bearish scenario: If gains are realized and funds take profits, yen rebounds, and the market pulls back, likely to retest $26.2–26.8; if volume breaks down, further test of $25.0 support, entering sideways consolidation. • Main catalysts: Year-end holiday sales, blockbuster game performance, PS Plus subscription data, exchange rates, sentiment in US tech stocks. • Main pressures: Short-term gains already realized, game console hardware sales slowing, image sensor demand on mobile side not strong. 2. Medium term (3–6 months, until Q1 next year) Reference range: $26–31 Market consensus rating is Moderate Buy, institutions' 12-month average target price about $29.5–31. ✅ Supporting factors • Gaming business is the biggest highlight: "GWho wouldn't call this market bullish? Yesterday's rise reversed today, falling back down—it's the familiar pattern of the market.
Yesterday, Bitcoin pulled back above 80,000, and everywhere you looked people were shouting "bullish reversal, trend flip, bottom fishing after oversell," but Shen Ying doesn't follow that—still bearish.
The logic is simple: the rise was due to short covering and emotional surges, not real spot buying with actual money. ETFs are still withdrawing, on-chain selling continues, and today the 80,000 level broke down, falling all the way to 76,100.
Market moves are just outcomes; the hard part is maintaining independent judgment when everyone is bullish, resisting emotional influence, and executing trades according to plan. $BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 📉 $BTC & ETH: Tech Stocks Add Pressure
$BTC and $ETH dropped as US tech stocks weakened, with SanDisk falling over 10% alongside declines in Micron and Nvidia.
This reflects broader risk-off sentiment, not necessarily a direct reaction to SanDisk. The proposed AI restrictions have also raised concerns, but aren't an enacted ban or a confirmed cause.
What to watch:
- $BTC: Can it reclaim broken support with strong volume?
- $ETH: Its sharper decline raises #USJobsReportInFocus Bitcoin and Ethereum short position layout strategy: 11/5
"If Bitcoin doesn't make a move, even a strong Ethereum can't hold alone; a breakout requires the leading coins to resonate together.
"This wave isn't about bullish or bearish, but about whether the structure is complete — the daily retracement isn't finished, and the 4-hour rebound hasn't even started, so it's too early to talk about a reversal.
"Bollinger Bands narrowing is a consolidation, only when they expand does the direction become clear; don't chase orders during the narrowing.
"Good prices won't knock repeatedly, and a true bottom won't wait several days for you to get on board.
"After a long sideways movement, a rise is inevitable, but before the rise, there will be a shakeout of floating chips; this is a rule, not a coincidence.
Bitcoin successfully took around 2500 points, and Ethereum successfully took around 120 points. #Stripe稳定币付款覆盖160多市场
Stripe has expanded stablecoin payments to over 160 markets, but currently it is only open to U.S. businesses; New York State is excluded for now and must wait in line for early access. Payers use USD or USDC balances to pay, sending funds to recipients' external crypto wallets, supporting USDC and OUSD, operating on Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon, with transactions settling in minutes. Fees are $0.5 plus 0.5% per transaction.
Stripe's strategy is not to issue its own coin nor require businesses to handle on-chain operations; it manages conversion and on-chain processes itself, providing a front-end experience similar to regular payments. For companies engaged in foreign trade and cross-border payments, this is a practical solution.
However, the 160 markets refer to the recipients' locations, not that paying businesses can initiate operations in 160 countries. New York State is excluded due to regulatory hurdles not yet cleared. The significance lies not in the number but in mainstream payment channels integrating stablecoins into enterprise-level payment workflows; direction matters more than speed.Enduring the pressure for one more bet: $710,000 margin short on $ETH, only $92 away from liquidation price
Just after cutting losses of $300,000, the trader immediately went against the trend again: shorting 5,864 $ETH, with the short position valued at about $14.2 million, nearly 100 million RMB, while only putting up $710,000 margin.
Leverage is pushed to 21.88x, liquidation price at 2508.53, only about $92 away from the current price. The safety buffer is extremely thin; a slight price surge could wipe out the position.
This move seems more like an emotional increase: just stopped loss and immediately reversed, the direction remains unchanged but the risk is more concentrated. ETH has high short-term volatility, and hitting liquidation dense zones can easily trigger chain reactions. High-leverage short positions in such areas can quickly become fuel.
Whether the position survives depends on whether the 2508 level can hold. If ETH rallies with volume, liquidation risk will rapidly increase; if it spikes and then falls back, there will be a chance to catch a breath. Spectate if you want, but don’t heavily bet on the direction.
The above is only an event summary and does not constitute investment advice. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 ETH made a strong move to the upside from our buying zone, and structure is looking bullish now.
I’m currently watching two POIs. If we pump and sweep yesterday’s high at 2,450, I’ll look to short ETH toward 2,300.
My major long POI is 2,260–2,270. That’s where I’ll look to swing long ETH toward new highs, with 3K as the target.🎯
$ETH
#SonyQ2ProfitUp45%
Dyor 【SanDisk has dropped like this, which of the two coins' recent dips looks more like a retreat?】
BTC and ETH both dipped consecutively in the evening, with trading volume noticeably increasing after 10:30 PM. I initially looked for any sudden incidents, then checked the US stock market—SanDisk fell more than 10% intraday, and Micron and Nvidia also declined. This is not just a short-term pullback for the two coins themselves; the risk appetite for tech assets is also cooling down.
But don’t directly interpret the simultaneous decline as "SanDisk dragging down the coins." SanDisk and other storage stocks have been under pressure for days due to industry-specific concerns; the overall weakness in tech stocks may be causing funds to tighten their tolerance for high-volatility assets. There is currently no evidence as to which side led the other.
As for the "super AI ban," the related content is still a policy proposal put forward by lawmakers and cannot be described as a new ban that has already taken effect. It’s fair to say it has increased market concerns, but I do not currently accept it as the sole cause of this round of decline.
What I care more about is whether the upcoming rebound will be supported by trading volume: if BTC only bounces back near the broken level and then retreats, the pressure remains; ETH’s recent dip was sharper, and if its pullback remains weaker than BTC, short-term support will be questionable again. Volatility will increase after a sharp drop, so be cautious of risks. $BTC $ETHThose who chased high at 81000 yesterday probably can't sleep tonight, right?
Yesterday Bitcoin was still at 81000, with a bunch of people shouting "bullish rebound speed return" and rushing in; today as soon as the US stock market opened, it directly crashed to 76100! This roller coaster ride cures all kinds of disbelief.
Why such a brutal drop? Three cuts came down simultaneously:
First, the US stock market plunge dragged down the whole market. The Nasdaq was already down pre-market, tech stocks plummeted, funds fled wildly, and Bitcoin suffered along.
Second, institutions are secretly running away. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of over 1 billion USD in two days, with BlackRock leading the exit. They talk bullish but act honestly.
Third, a long squeeze and chain liquidations. The leveraged longs who chased high at 81000 last night were too dense; once the price broke the level, the liquidation engine immediately switched to meat grinder mode, with nearly 600 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, mostly longs.
What’s the outlook now?
Since it has truly dropped to 76100, those so-called supports from before have long been broken and now all turned into an iron lid overhead. The most critical level right now is the round number 76000.
If this level can’t hold, below is a large liquidation minefield, with the next targets directly at 75000 or even 74000. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife; when gods fight, mortals better stay away first.
Check in in the comments:
Brothers who chased longs at 81000 last night, are you still holding? How much leverage did you use?
Those who stayed out and watched the show, give a like so I can see how many wise people there are!$PUMP is setting up a high-probability bullish reversal right off major range demand.
Selling pressure has fully dried up as smart money absorbs sell orders.
Buy Zone
0.00385 - 0.003968
EP
0.00385 - 0.003968
TP
0.00425
0.00458
0.00495
SL
0.00372
Order flow indicates steady buyer accumulation establishing a rock-solid foundation. A clean move above local resistance will spark a high-velocity recovery push.
Let's go $PUMP
#OKXOrbitTopics $ETH Market status: Selling pressure exhausted, but structure is broken. Volume sequence (5 minutes): 10,412 → 11,497 → 7,233 → 6,521 → 16,118 (peak) → 5,174 → 1,710 (sharp drop). Exactly the same pattern as $BTC: at 23:25, a capitulation volume surge appeared, followed by a rapid volume contraction. Price rebounded from 2,266.9 to 2,285, but the amplitude was less than 1%. Selling pressure exhaustion ≠ bottom confirmation. This is now the "first pause after a sharp drop." Three possible paths: A. Low-level oscillation 50% between 2,270–2,320 range repeatedly. B. Second bottom test 32% breaking 2,266 → 2,200 → 2,174 (52-week low). C. Rebound repair 18% recovering 2,305 → 2,345. The baseline is A, but note that the probability of B is higher than BTC—because ETH has no liquidation buffer zone below, and the 52-week low at 2,174 is just 4.6% away, which is a natural "magnet point." $ETH strategy four plans Plan ①: Short on rebound (preferred) 2,305 turns from support into resistance, this is the cleanest move. Trigger: rebound to 2,300–2,320 (just broken weekly MA50). Entry: 2,305 / 2,318 in two parts. Stop loss: 2,358 (above daily MA20). Target【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x833b opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: $79,690.05
▪ Transaction amount this time: $1,259,163.38
▪ Leverage: 40x
Is anyone else watching this coin? Let's discuss.
Note: This address has earned over $545,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +48.66% Another liquidation explosion! The bulls have been completely broken through, where is the bottom?
Over 100,000 liquidations within 24 hours, evaporating $720 million, with 98% all long positions, nearly $100 million long liquidations in a single hour. Multiple bearish factors resonated causing continuous bleeding, the selling pressure is extremely fierce.
$BTC is at 76,633.2 (-4.57%). The 76,000 level is repeatedly crushed, attention below is on the 75,000 to 76,000 support zone, short-term long-short battles are extremely intense.
$ETH is at 2,283.21 (-5.90%). The decline far exceeds the overall market, the largest single liquidation reached $38 million, crowded leverage causing a chain stampede, around 2,215 is the next critical lifeline.
$OKB is at 107.14 (-3.08%). Although daily trading volume has shrunk to the tens of millions level, safe-haven funds are flowing in, spot depth is relatively strong, and selling pressure is relatively unbreakable.
Summary: Leverage has been bloodied, but spot support power remains. Is this correction a chance to get in or the start of an abyss? Are you adding positions now or trapped? Report your holdings in the comments!
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 "After Intel's Halving: A Golden Opportunity or a Falling Knife?"
Q3 was not bad: revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with data center business up 78%, the strongest in 15 years. The sell-off was triggered by the Q4 guidance—revenue of $15–16 billion (expected around $17 billion), adjusted EPS of $0.25 (expected $0.43); compounded by memory price hikes suppressing PC demand, an explosion at the Israel factory causing about $600 million in losses over two quarters, capacity constraints, and 2027 still being an "investment year." The AI recovery narrative, which had surged 150% earlier this year, was completely reversed in one go: on 10/30, a single-day drop of 28.6%, and by 11/5, the price had fallen to $53.88, nearly halving.
Bottom-fishing bets on "falling expectations but not falling demand." Federal Reserve data shows that in the second quarter of 2026, the net worth of the wealthiest 0.1% of American households is about $27.87 trillion, while the bottom 50% of households collectively have only $4.28 trillion, with the former being about 6.5 times the latter. Over the past year, their wealth grew by 18.9% and 7% respectively, with the originally wealthier group growing even faster.
Federal Reserve Governor Barr explained one reason in a related speech: households that already hold appreciating assets can continuously accumulate wealth through asset appreciation and reinvested returns. The more assets originally owned, the greater the wealth increase from the same rate of appreciation. Meanwhile, households mainly relying on wages must first cover daily living expenses, and only the remaining money can be used for savings and investment, meaning the principal participating in asset appreciation is inherently smaller.
Therefore, stock market gains and many households not noticeably feeling an improvement in living standards can occur simultaneously. The rise in asset prices directly increases the wealth of holders, but for households with very few assets, the amount they can continuously invest is even less.$AAVE
A lending protocol's real strength is revealed when market conditions become uncomfortable. For Aave, the important question is whether borrowers and liquidity providers continue finding value in its lending markets across different chains. Sustainable lending demand matters more than temporary yield incentives. Credit efficiency, liquidation performance, and deposit liquidity remain essential factors in evaluating its long-term position in DeFi.The $BTC market had already priced in the expectation of a "crypto-friendly Congress" ahead of the parliamentary meeting, pushing it up to 81,000. Once the parliamentary session officially ended without any unexpectedly strong positive news or new legislation, and with no reason for bulls to continue adding positions, profit-taking began immediately. At 10:10, Barkin stated that domestic demand in the US is steady and the current economic situation is good. Market interpretation: this implies no rush to cut interest rates for now, which will have a bearish sentiment impact on crypto and US stocks. The crash starts around this time; how far do you think it will drop? 📉$BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Election results are in, with the Democratic Party sweeping both chambers of Congress, which currently has a huge impact on the crypto market.
First, there was a massive rally during the daytime in Asia, but the fuel for this rally was short covering, not new money entering the market. Within two hours, $132 million worth of ETH shorts were liquidated, with the majority of liquidations coming from shorts across the network. However, the funding rate failed to rise, indicating no leveraged funds chasing longs off-exchange. On the ETF side, Ethereum just ended a continuous seven-day outflow totaling $657 million. But the current US stock market has already said it all; a $53 million inflow in one day cannot change the market's downward trend.
On the policy front, the CLARITY Act originally failed to pass the Senate threshold in September. After the Democrats regained control of both chambers, this issue has shifted from "pushing it again" to "re-negotiating," and the Democrats themselves are working on a version that expands SEC authority and narrows the CFTC's role. Over the next two years, the crypto industry will face not legislative relaxation but tighter administrative regulation.
So shorts can continue to hold now. The rebound propped up by short liquidations can be said to be meaningless; once the liquidations are done, what follows is spot selling pressure and the ceiling of regulatory expectations. The election has shattered the narrative of "favorable legislation," and the rebound is a way to make room for shorts, not to open the door for longs.