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#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week $BTC $ETH BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in one week — institutional funds clearly reduced positions this week rather than bottom-fishing. According to crypto.news citing data from Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $1.65 billion from November 2 to 6. Among them, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion in one week, marking the worst week since the end of June this year; Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of about $365 million, recording net outflows for the sixth consecutive week. The Block's statistics based on SoSoValue data also point to this scale. The structure is even more striking than the total amount. BlackRock's IBIT had a weekly outflow of about $1.21 billion, almost entirely accounting for the selling pressure on the Bitcoin side; on Friday alone, IBIT outflowed $403 million, about 88% of the total Bitcoin ETF outflow that day. In the same week, Fidelity's FBTC actually recorded a net inflow of about $93.1 million, indicating this is more like a redistribution of funds among different issuers rather than a "market-wide run." On the Ethereum side, BlackRock's ETHA had a weekly outflow of about $345.9 million, also a major player. In terms of rhythm, only Wednesday saw positive inflows for the whole week: Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $74.6 million, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $53 million. On Thursday and Friday combined, the two product types had a total outflow of about $1.04 billion One group is buying, two groups are selling.
Ethereum has been falling for four weeks.
Someone has been buying continuously, each time at a higher price.
In June, he bought at 1626. The batch added this week was at 2245. It’s 38% more expensive, but he still bought.
Another new address 0x4AB7 withdrew 9,777 coins from Binance in one week, about 22.5 million. When coins are transferred to one’s own wallet, it usually means no intention to sell immediately.
This week, a total of 42 million like this was moved in.
In the same week, US Ethereum funds sold 365 million. BlackRock alone sold 346 million.
The buying is nine times less, ridiculous.
The amount bought in a week is not enough to cover one day’s selling by the funds.
The futures market is also in this direction. In these eight days, big players have been betting on a drop, while retail investors bet on a rise.
On November 5, tech stocks were falling, and Ethereum dropped all the way to 2206. It wasn’t this group that pushed it down.
They were betting on the drop; when it fell to 2206, they profited. After making money, they stopped and conveniently bought a batch.
The next day it bounced to 2254, only a 2% rebound, no momentum. They judged it could still fall and continued betting on the drop.
There is only this one group buying. But there are two groups pushing it down.
So, the price definitely can’t hold.
This week the low touched 2206, 2200 is right underfoot.
If it breaks below 2200, the next support is 1963.
When will the drop end?
Mainly depends on the day BlackRock stops selling.If you are a disciplined technical naked K-line trader, it is absolutely impossible to be stuck halfway holding semiconductor stocks.
When you trade contracts, altcoins run fast because you know you are gambling. If you change the contract name to semiconductor, do you really think you are investing? What's the difference if you cover the name?
This shows that technical analysis and chartists are not useless.
And how any technique is used depends on the person, not on what kind of knife you hold.
For example, SNDK and Hynix.
Recently, SNDK has a clear resistance level at 1400, which has been tested 3 times in the last 10 days and was firmly suppressed each time. As a naked K-line trader, you should just think about shorting quickly, rather than stubbornly holding long positions that are useless.
As for Hynix, on Thursday, when it quickly broke below 990, it was clearly a place where long positions needed to stop loss.
If you are wrong, you have to learn to admit it; otherwise, if you are wrong once out of 101 times and still hold the position, you are doomed!!#BTC and ETH spot ETF weekly net outflow exceeds $1.6 billion $
Weekend sideways trading, the direction is still downward.
$BTC is now at 75,900, fluctuating narrowly between 74,900 and 76,400 over the weekend, with no clear direction. Last Friday it dropped 5.5% in one day, the weekly chart has shown three consecutive bearish candles (October 19, 26, and November 2 all closed lower), and this week is also bearish so far, with no rebound signals.
There are quite a few data releases next week: Tuesday at 9:30 PM CPI (expected year-over-year 3.7%), Thursday initial jobless claims, Friday PPI; also SoftBank earnings on Tuesday afternoon.
My view: short-term bearish bias. The weekly bearish streak hasn't stopped, sideways trading just means it can't fall further, not that it will rise; CPI is the turning point next week—if it exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations won't ease and pressure continues; only if it is below expectations will there be a decent rebound. First, watch if the 75,000 level can hold. Recently, a textbook-level bull squeeze occurred, with leveraged long positions being heavily liquidated. Bitcoin ($BTC) saw a total liquidation amount of about 280 million in 24 hours, accounting for 25.25% of the entire market, with longs liquidated at 250 million and shorts only 30.63 million. Ethereum ($ETH) followed a similar trend, with liquidations totaling 180 million, accounting for 15.97%, with longs at 150 million and shorts at 32.05 million. SOL ($SOL) ranked third, with liquidations of 37.68 million, accounting for 3.36%, with longs at 33.94 million and shorts only 3.74 million. The structure of the three major mainstream coins is highly similar: long leverage was largely washed out, while short positions showed basically no significant change. This is a typical case of passive deleveraging, not both bulls and bears firmly betting on one direction. One notable feature of this correction is capital rotation. When Bitcoin and Ethereum fell back, altcoins actually rose slightly, indicating that funds did not exit the entire crypto sector but rather switched between assets of different risk levels. If it were a wholesale exit, most coins would fall simultaneously, and short liquidation volumes would also rise significantly. For traders, the psychological impact may last longer than the paper losses. Investors who entered near the highs and were liquidated will make remaining buyers more cautious. Even if spot funds remain relatively stable, short-term confidence in going long will recover slowly. Large-scale liquidations clear excessive leverage from the market, which historically tends to lay a healthier market foundation, but this does not mean the market trendSpot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion this week, with both markets pulling money out together. This is not retail sentiment; these are institutional redemption orders. Understand the role of this pipeline: after it opened in January 2024, institutions for the first time had a way to buy Bitcoin directly in brokerage accounts without touching private keys. Since then, the daily fund flows of ETFs have been the most real-time pricing signal on the market. Now that money is continuously flowing out, the price can only move sideways—around the 75,900 level it has been flat for almost a week, with the fear and greed index dropping to just above 30, and no one willing to add positions at this level. The counterintuitive point is this: most people focus on price, but I look at who is paying. The batch that entered at the high in 2025 has an average cost around $84,000; the current price is much lower than their cost, leaving only two options: cut losses during rebounds or hold and wait for the cycle. So every rally sees selling. Historical comparison makes it clear: from November 2025 to February 2026, the spot channel saw a cumulative withdrawal of about $6.3 billion over four months, with the price grinding down to 66,000 before buyers reappeared; in March this year, there was a single-week inflow of $1.32 billion, the first positive turn in those four months, but the whole quarter still ended in net outflow—one inflow does not mean the funds have returned. What’s different this time is that the outflows are from passive index funds, not panic selling; the exit is slow but hits the order book at every step, so this round is not a crash, it’s a grind. If you’re hoping for a policy turnaround to save the day, better drop that idea early.When people see "Congress changing hands, legislative gridlock," they mostly think it’s bearish for the entire industry. Galaxy Research’s midterm election assessment warns: if the Democrats win both chambers of the U.S. Congress, the crypto industry may face stricter oversight; research lead Alex Thorn expects little substantive progress on key digital asset legislation.
On the flip side, what I think we should be more wary of is not just the cooling sentiment, but the possibility that industry barriers might be raised. This is my speculation: if legislation remains unclear for a long time, companies that need to operate under multiple sets of rules will have to continuously bear compliance judgment costs, which small teams may not be able to afford.
Another reason is that the SEC, CFTC, and banking regulators can still refine rules under existing laws. If rules continue to advance, larger institutions may have more resources to adapt, and the market could become more concentrated. I will be watching who the rules ultimately shift the costs onto, rather than just counting how many bills pass.South Korea plans to stipulate that the largest shareholder of an exchange can hold at most 15% to 20% of the shares. At first glance, it seems like putting shackles on the boss, but in fact, it's locking down the license — the entry process is changing from declaration to a permit system, and existing platforms will have to endure a 1 to 2 year transition period.
Interestingly, in the same draft, the tax on crypto asset income is postponed by two years. Tightening on one side, loosening on the other, no one loses out, it just pushes the timeline back.
The KRW premium for $BTC and $ETH will probably suffer for a while, and $XRP, a favorite among Korean retail investors, is even more affected. Watching others change the rules through the screen, we can only wait for the permit list to come out before saying anything.A government draft bill not yet submitted may decide the future ownership of several Korean exchanges: a single shareholder can hold a maximum of 15% to 20%, existing platforms only have a 1 to 2 year transition period, and it may also be limited to voting rights only. The draft is coordinated by the Financial Services Commission, aiming to be proposed within November.
This is not just adding a compliance procedure; it is changing control. The equity of leading platforms is already concentrated, so the cap means they can only split shares, bring in new shareholders, or separate voting rights from dividend rights. The negotiation window of 1 to 2 years is not wide.
At the same time, the admission system changes from a filing system to a licensing system. The era of opening business just by filing is over; regulatory approval is required to operate. The implication of the licensing system is that the list is limited, and whoever is on the list has a license premium. Stablecoin issuance tends to be centered on bank-led consortia, with the issuance rights retained by banks.
There are two more points: no-fault compensation is set for hackers and system accidents, so incidents cannot be excused by "we are also victims," meaning security costs will truly increase; violating actual holding obligations can directly be grounds for suspension of business, which is harsher than fines.
The pace is even more intriguing. On November 5, Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Lee Hyeong-il stated that he will negotiate with the National Assembly to postpone the originally scheduled crypto asset income tax next year by two years. Tightening on one hand, deferring on the other. The Korean won premium for $BTC and $ETH will not disappear because of one law, and retail-heavy assets like $XRP are even more easily driven by sentiment.
What really needs attention is not the articles, but who remains on the licensing list.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$AKE large sell cost increased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale sell rose from 0.62% to 0.70%. 10,000 sell still about 0.11%. Order size reduced or split until cost returns to an acceptable range.
$PONS after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10,000 scale buy/sell slippage 0.13%/0.13%, 100,000 is 0.81%/0.61%. This is a cost table, not direction; simultaneous increase on both buy and sell sides indicates overall shallow depth.$TTWO Before the earnings report, which major new release should we focus on?
Take-Two has scheduled the quarterly earnings announcement for November 9. I am more concerned about the composition of the booking guidance and the release schedule, because development costs occur upfront, and cash recovery depends on product delivery. If the guidance is supported by multiple products, the risk of delay in a single project is lower. If the incremental revenue heavily depends on the same window, sensitivity to the timeline needs to be increased.Elon Musk expects SpaceX's annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year. As the on-chain mapped asset, SPCX has only risen slightly by 0.1% so far; the hype has not yet translated into buying pressure. I judge the news to be somewhat positive, but the market has not confirmed it yet. The short-term one-hour upward trend conflicts with the four-hour downward trend, and the price has fallen 10.01% from the four-hour high, indicating the rebound is still corrective in nature. The buy-sell ratio is 1.02, slightly favoring buyers. The funding rate is zero, and open interest is 381,000, showing both bulls and bears are reluctant to increase positions, with clear divergence. Strategically, one can lightly try going long at 134.83 with a stop loss at 133.97 and a target of 136.42; if the price rises to 136.18 but is resisted and falls back, then reverse to a short position with a stop loss at 137.05 and a target of 134.72, keeping single position size under 10%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SPCX#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元
#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元
$SPCX This week $TRUMP has really had a rough time😮💨
As the Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, TRUMP also faced a sharp sell-off, with its price dropping from around $1.71 at the start of the week to $1.18, a weekly decline of over 30%!
During this period, it hit a low near $1.11, setting a new all-time low.
This actually aligns quite well with TRUMP's asset characteristics:
Its price largely depends on Donald Trump's political influence, market attention, and the willingness of speculative funds to participate.
The midterm election results mean that policy advancement over the next two years may face more obstacles, which is obviously not good news for a token reliant on political narratives.
Even more awkwardly, TRUMP has dropped over 98% from its historical peak to date...
Currently, I still don't have a positive outlook on its short-term performance: the heat around political narratives is cooling down, market liquidity is tight, and simply trying to buy the dip because it has fallen a lot is not very attractive.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ZEC at $1260, upgrade successful, so why are you still losing money?
NU7 upgrade implemented, block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, 12,000 ZEC permanently locked — all the positives have been realized, yet the price dropped from 1300 back to 1260. Just now, it fell 4% in 24 hours, bulls liquidated over one million. Is this a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" harvest, or has the upgrade dividend not yet been priced in?
First, look at the surface: positive news delivered, price fell.
On November 5, NU7 officially activated, block time shortened to 25 seconds, Sprout pool retired locking about 12,200 ZEC, directly reducing supply. Price surged to 1300+ before the upgrade, then dropped back to 1260 after.
First thing: you weren’t cut by the upgrade itself, but by "buying the expectation and selling the fact."
Before NU7 upgrade, the market hyped it for over a month, pushing price from lows to 1300+. Once the upgrade landed, profit-taking was collective, bulls liquidated over a million, price retreated to 1260.
Is this the end of good news? No, this is short-term traders exiting and long-term holders entering.
Think about it: block time changed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, confirmation speed tripled; 60% of transaction fees go into reserves, block rewards supplemented from 2031 — this equips ZEC with a "long-term security budget." The upgrade is not the end, but the beginning. But short-term players only care about "whether to sell the moment the news breaks," so what you see is a dump.
Second thing: 12,200 ZEC permanently locked, have you done the math?
Sprout privacy pool officially retired, about 12,200 ZEC permanently locked, worth approximately $15-16 million.
Circulating supply about 16.95-17.03 million, total supply 21 million. 12,200 is not a huge amount, but it’s "permanently gone," not "temporarily locked."
Add NU7’s reserve mechanism — 60% of transaction fees go into reserves, supplementing future block rewards. ZEC is shifting from "pure inflation" to a "sustainable security budget," a Bitcoin-level economic model design.
You’re still focused on the 4% drop, while others are calculating the supply curve for the next 5 years.
Third thing: technicals tell you 1260 is a midpoint, neither bottom nor top.
Daily RSI around 50-51, neutral. Price pulled back from highs, forming lower highs, testing support.
Strong support: 1235-1240 → 1210-1216 → 1120-1140
Resistance: 1280-1290 → 1340-1360 → 1380-1400
50-day moving average pressing from above, short-term bearish consolidation
Hold 1235 with volume rebound, target 1287+; break below 1210, look down to 1150-1120.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
NU7 upgrade implemented, confirmation speed tripled, long-term economic model improved
12,200 ZEC permanently locked, real supply shock
Privacy demand remains, stricter regulation makes privacy more valuable
Significant annual gains, mid-term narrative intact
On the other side:
Post-upgrade profit-taking, short-term selling pressure not digested
ETF net outflows recently, cautious capital flow
BTC oscillating between 75,000-76,000, market fear & greed index 28-44
Privacy coin regulatory uncertainty still looming
Development fund governance disputes, community divided
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Light long positions at 1235-1245, stop loss below 1210, target 1280-1290, then 1340. If rebound hits resistance at 1285-1300, light short positions can be tried, stop loss above 1310, target 1260-1240.
Swing traders:
Wait for pullback to 1120-1200 range to build long positions in batches, stop loss below 1100, target 1400+. Premise: BTC stabilizes, ETF funds return. If BTC remains weak, wait for lower levels.
Long-term believers:
Privacy narrative intact, NU7 is a long-term positive. But don’t blindly buy at 1260, wait for pullback below 1200 to dollar-cost average. By end of 2026, target 1400-1600, betting on privacy demand + upgrade dividends + ETF inflows. Exit if it breaks below 1120 to observe.
ZEC now is like ETH before its upgrade —
Everyone focuses on "the moment the news lands," but the real big move happens after digestion. $BTC $ETH $ZEC South Korea plans to reduce major shareholders' holdings in exchanges to 15%–20%. With this sharp cut, the industry landscape will have to be reshuffled.
The Financial Services Commission is pushing for the draft "Basic Digital Asset Act" to be proposed this month, aiming to change cryptocurrency exchange regulation from a registration system to a licensing system. It is considering setting a major shareholder holding cap at 15%–20%, with existing platforms possibly granted a 1–2 year transition period. This means South Korea is shifting from "registration filing" to "licensed operation," marking a regulatory framework change in one of the world's most active trading markets.
The licensing system raises the entry threshold, compressing the space for exchanges to rely on major shareholders' capital injections and financial maneuvers. The equity structure, mergers and acquisitions, and expansion pace of leading platforms like Upbit will need to be rearranged; the transition period indicates there won't be an immediate blanket clearance, with the main impact focused on valuation and compliance costs. Scenario one: if the cap is set at 15%, the pressure to rearrange equity is greater; scenario two: if set at 20% with attached rectification conditions, the transition pace becomes more critical. Are you more concerned about the final cap on holdings or whether the transition period includes rectification conditions?
Source: Wu Shuo#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 indicates that incremental funds are withdrawing, making it harder for altcoins to remain unaffected. Regarding SKHYNIX, I tend to continue defending rather than bottom-fishing. Looking at the market, the price is 875.1, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, with a high of 882.1 pressing down and a low of 868.1 supporting, both 1-hour and 4-hour charts show a downward structure; the order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.57, sellers clearly dominate, funding rate is 0.0000%, open interest is 64,000, sentiment is cold with no leverage short squeeze momentum. Strategy-wise, lightly short near 879.6 on a rebound, stop loss at 884.3, target 866.5; if volume breaks below 868.1, short again, stop loss 873.2, target 858.9. Single position no more than 20%, exit if the breakout fails.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SKHYNIX#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
$SKHYNIX Who holds 849,327 BTC?
Of course, it's MicroStrategy.
Currently, the price is around 75,900, which is near MicroStrategy's cost basis.
Every time it hits this cost basis, the screen fills with mockery or panic.
Does this Bitcoin reserve train really have a destination, or is every stop just a temporary station to get off?
This year, to pay preferred stock dividends, they have already sold about $430 million worth of coins.
In 8 to 10 hours, let's see if Taylor tweets to indicate whether to buy or sell this week?
We wait and see; this is also a typical sentiment indicator. Just stay tuned! $NVDA Earnings Preview｜OKX Predicts Market 80% Expect Better-than-Expected Results, I Lean Bullish
Nvidia confirmed it will release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes next Tuesday (November 17). The prediction market currently shows Yes at 82¢ and No at 20¢, corresponding to about an 80% probability of beating expectations.
Supporting this judgment are several points: the company’s revenue guidance is $108 billion (±2%), the market consensus is about $108.8 billion, slightly above the midpoint of the guidance; last quarter’s revenue was $96.2 billion, about 4.6% higher than expected; EPS has beaten expectations in all of the past four quarters.
But there are two points to note: first, the 80% probability already factors in most of the good news, with a Yes buy-in price of 82¢, winning yields only about 18¢ per share, while losing means losing the principal, so the odds are not high; second, beating earnings does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. In the past four beats, the stock price fell after earnings three times, and the company also warned that Q4 gross margin will decline due to rising memory costs.
So I am optimistic about the "beat expectations" itself, but I don’t consider it a sure win. I used to think that as long as the direction was right, having a larger position just meant earning a bit more. Only after suffering losses did I admit that the worst thing isn't being wrong about the direction, but pressing the position so hard that you don't dare to admit the mistake, delaying the stop loss again and again.
This time, Core Trader 93 used 10x leverage to go long on $SNDK, with a nominal position of about $100,400, and the result hasn't come out yet. My judgment is that this trade should focus more on risk budgeting rather than guessing how confident he is. Roughly calculating by initial margin without fees, if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss would be about 10% of the margin; but since the total account funds are unknown, you can't just judge heavy position by the amount alone.
Now I follow two rules: first, set the maximum loss you can bear per trade, then calculate the position size backward from the stop loss distance to avoid being unable to withstand normal fluctuations; second, set the stop loss firmly and don't move it farther away, to avoid turning one wrong judgment into a stubborn hold. Have you ever experienced moving your stop loss farther and farther? What hard rule did you set for yourself afterward? Starting November 17, ordinary people in Russia can buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT through licensed institutions.
The central bank's rules have been finalized: for non-qualified investors, each institution can buy up to 300,000 rubles per year, about 3,700 USD, and they must pass a test first. The Moscow Exchange will also start a pilot on December 1. (Source: Cointelegraph, Russian Central Bank)
My view: this is a compliance entry point, not a liberalization. Only three coins are allowed, with limits, and P2P trading will be banned starting July 2027; transferring to personal wallets is also not allowed. There is actually little room for people who want to put coins into their own wallets over there.
Don't expect too much from the market. The annual quota of 3,700 USD is spread across each institution, so the scale is limited. The real change is that another major country has incorporated crypto into a regulatory framework. These days, the market mainly focuses on the Federal Reserve and US stocks; this news is more of a slow variable.
#BTC #ETH #USDT #美加稳定币监管明确收益边界 $BTC The gold market recently experienced a significant adjustment followed by a rebound, but overall volatility remains high. Continuous gold purchases by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in the global economic outlook remain key factors supporting gold's long-term value.
From a macro perspective, U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, fueling market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates. This strengthened the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, exerting short-term pressure on gold.
From the capital demand side, global central banks' net gold purchases in the third quarter reached 321 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase. Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 211 tons during the same period, indicating that institutional and central bank allocation demand remains strong.
From the market demand perspective, global economic uncertainty and ongoing sovereign debt pressures continue to support gold's safe-haven demand. However, high gold prices have also suppressed some physical gold and jewelry consumption.
In summary: Gold remains supported in the long term by central bank purchases, safe-haven demand, and global debt issues, but faces short-term pressure from a stronger dollar and expectations of high interest rates. Going forward, key focus areas include U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve policy, dollar trends, and global central bank gold purchases. $XAU First, consider the worst-case scenario. When I see data showing a cluster of long positions, my first question isn't how much more it can rise, but: if the market suddenly reverses, can my margin hold up? Having done risk control, this habit is hard to break.
The current long-to-short ratio on OKEx BTC contracts is 2.99, compared to 2.98 24 hours ago, meaning for every 1 short account, there are 2.99 long accounts. I think this is more of a crowding alert rather than a directional signal.
⚠️ I have three concerns: the number of accounts doesn't equal the amount of capital, many accounts don't necessarily mean large positions; the change from 2.98 to 2.99 is very small, so it can't be used to judge a clear rise in sentiment; if crowding continues to intensify and is met with a reverse fluctuation, I speculate that high-leverage accounts will be more passive, but this shouldn't be taken as a definite signal for a drop.
Ordinary traders might first clearly define the maximum loss they can bear per trade, rather than using the number ratio as a substitute for risk budgeting. When facing such data showing a long bias crowding, how much stop loss do you generally set for yourself per trade? Lately, people have been asking: With the price dropping like this, who exactly is selling? The answer isn't that mysterious; it's just that someone has been continuously using market orders to push the price down.
Since October 14, the active sell volume of $BTC has consistently exceeded the active buy volume, accumulating an excess of 105,300 coins. During this period, the price fell from 84,000 to 76,000. The drop didn't happen out of thin air; there really are sellers, and they're selling patiently.
Many people's first reaction is, "Is it another liquidation?" Liquidation-driven drops are like a needle—sharp and quick, then a rebound. This time is different; it's a slow grind downward, selling as it goes, which is even harder to endure because it doesn't give you a clear bottom to buy at.
If you're thinking about buying in, first ask yourself: Has the active buying volume returned?$BTC dropped from $84,000 to $76,000, and many people's first reaction was that leverage blew up. But there is another line worth watching during the same period: starting from October 14, the CVD turned negative and steadily declined to 105,300 BTC.
CVD measures who is more active between buyers and sellers. Its turning negative and continuing downward is straightforward: during this period, there were consistently more active sellers than active buyers, with a cumulative excess of 105,300 BTC. The price drop is due to real continuous selling pressure in the order book, not a sudden spike in some contract market.
Passive limit orders can be withdrawn without leaving traces; active trades involve exchanging real money. Therefore, CVD explains who dominated this period better than price alone. While the price dropped $8,000, CVD steadily declined, indicating persistent and patient selling pressure.
Axel Adler Jr.'s judgment is that the bears are applying pressure and currently dominate. The operational implication is specific—until active buying volume turns positive again, any rebound is more likely a recovery after selling pressure release, not a trend reversal.
Another point to consider: before October 14, CVD was positive, indicating buyers were pushing. Later it turned negative and price fell simultaneously, meaning most chips changed hands during this interval. The new holders' cost basis is above $76,000, and they want to exit once breakeven is reached, creating resistance above.
The focus is not on whether the price breaks a level, but on when CVD turns positive.Can $HOOD's net inflows offset the cooling of retail trading?
Robinhood disclosed $16 billion in net inflows in Q3. More client assets benefit brokerage and interest businesses, but activity levels, asset allocation, and interest rates will affect monetization. If inflows are retained and multiple business lines grow, revenue will be more stable. If inflows remain in low-monetization assets and trading volume declines, profit elasticity will be discounted.“The bulls are so crowded, it should reverse.” This is a common interpretation. The current long-to-short ratio for OKEx BTC contracts is 2.99, compared to 2.98 24 hours ago.
Thinking about it the other way, I feel it's too hasty to treat this as a bearish signal: first, the increase is only 0.01, which doesn't indicate a sudden shift in sentiment; second, it only counts accounts without considering position size, so more long accounts don't necessarily mean stronger capital. I will wait for position data to confirm before hastily labeling this data as a reversal signal.Elon Musk expects SpaceX's annualized revenue run rate to exceed $100 billion by December. The number is impressive, but my first reaction is to pay attention to the term "annualized." Annualized revenue usually converts the income speed of a certain period into a full-year level. For example, if the monthly revenue is about $8.33 billion, multiplying by 12 results in an annualized scale of about $100 billion. This is a different question from how much revenue has actually been confirmed for the entire year. This does not affect the weight of the target itself. If such a revenue speed can really be achieved, it certainly means the business scale deserves to be reassessed. But next, we need to see which businesses contribute to the growth, whether it can be sustained, and how much capital is required to obtain this revenue. Especially during a high-speed expansion phase, revenue may run fast, but expenses may also run fast. If valuation is calculated only based on annualized revenue while ignoring equipment and infrastructure investments, the model usually looks much better than reality. I am willing to pay attention to this target, but I want to see subsequent financial reports clarify the revenue composition: how much is sustainable and repeatable, how much depends on concentrated delivery, and when the cash is actually collected. The market likes big numbers, which is normal. But for shareholders, beyond revenue scale, investment and returns must also be considered. The more aggressive the target, the more consecutive quarters of fulfillment are needed to reliably raise expectations. #马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元 43 linked receiving addresses transferred at least 4.06 million USDT from 365 TRON wallets. The same batch of addresses also transferred funds from wallets on Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, Arbitrum, and other chains, indicating this is a cross-chain coordinated operation rather than an isolated TRON incident. Pattern revealed by on-chain data Hundreds of victim wallets funnel funds to a few collection addresses, a typical characteristic of automated coin-sweeping malware or large-scale phishing toolkits—once a wallet is compromised, its stablecoin balance is quickly drained. TRON’s low fees and deep USDT liquidity make it a primary channel for legitimate transfers as well as the preferred network for illicit fund liquidation; this network has long carried the main share of global USDT transfers. Bitquery clustering of 43 receiving addresses implies a single operator or a closely coordinated group behind it. Cross-chain footprints (Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, Arbitrum) indicate the attackers are not limited to a single chain and likely aggregate funds via cross-chain bridges or swap services. Significance for the stablecoin ecosystem USDT is the primary target. Stablecoins have the best liquidity and are the hardest to track at scale, allowing attackers to instantly swap across various trading venues. TRON remains a high-risk zone. Its popularity in emerging market retail payments means many users and wallets have weaker security protections. Exchange compliance is the key checkpoint. Tether can freeze addresses upon request, and centralized exchanges are the main cash-out channels; coordinated blacklisting is the most effective measure.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
Next Tuesday (November 10) has two major events on the same day: the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report is worth a separate look. It is now roughly equivalent to
OpenAI's “meal replacement stock”: it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment $30 billion), and as of the end of March this year, OpenAI's
holding fair value was $79.6 billion, with cumulative unrealized gains of $45 billion.
The problem is that Ultraman confirmed in September that it will not go public in 2026, so these unrealized gains have no short-term exit channel.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, it liquidated Nvidia holdings to cash out $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings to raise $16.25 billion, and it is still carrying a $40 billion bridge loan (due March 2027); in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing “private equity pricing difficulties.”
S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: down 7.9% on Wednesday, intraday drop over 14% on Thursday, SoftBank's dollar bonds led the decline in Asian investment-grade bonds.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI is valued on the books, how much the LTV has risen, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice.Bitcoin at $75,880, just lying there playing dead, down only 0.2% in 24 hours.
This isn’t sideways movement; it’s clearly both bulls and bears exhausted, glaring at each other in the narrow alley between $75,500 and $76,100.
The ETF side is real combat: $430 million outflow on November 5, another $412 million outflow on the 6th, with BlackRock alone redeeming $403 million, totaling $1.28 billion fleeing in one week.
Institutions vote with their feet, retail investors stand firm with faith, caught in the middle is a fear and greed index at 26—scared, but not scared enough to cut losses.
I think the $75,556 50-week moving average is the key tonight; if it holds, the five consecutive weekly losses cap can be delayed; if it breaks, the 200-day moving average at $73,191 will have to come in to catch the fall.
The $76,125 24-hour high is the resistance; if it can’t break above, the so-called rebound is just handing the bears a knife.
Tonight at 7 PM Eastern Time is the weekly close, followed by the November 10 CPI, and the probability of a rate hike in December is already 76.5%. This game leaves little time for the bulls.
Which side are you on: hold above $75,500 and keep grinding, or admit defeat and exit if it breaks down?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #ETFCapitalFlowAfter reading, I noted three things and usually start with a checklist: This time, I want to examine the informational value of prediction markets rather than just how lively they are.
1. According to reports, Kalshi claims its trading volume related to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has exceeded $2.5 billion, nearly double the $1.3 billion of the 2024 election cycle. My judgment is that this is a positive signal for prediction markets as a public information tool, but trading volume can prove participation scale, not prediction quality alone.
2. Kalshi data shows that as of the morning of November 4, popular candidates won 479 events with an accuracy rate of about 98%. I would first put a question mark on this number: How much stronger is it than ordinary polls or simple judgments? Without comparable benchmarks, "high hit rate" and "providing additional information" cannot be equated in my view.
3. I care more about coverage: these elections involve the House, Senate, governors, and also positions like state attorneys general. If elections at different levels can continuously receive sufficient trading, then I speculate that the informational use of prediction markets has the chance to expand from focal events to more local races.
I will list scale, benchmarks, and coverage as my observation checklist. What would everyone add as a fourth item: probability update speed, or the information quality of less popular elections? $CORE 🚨🚨B14g has finally announced a user repayment plan, but I believe the crisis cannot be declared over yet.
On November 6, b14g announced a new user repayment arrangement.
According to their latest statement and media reports:
Phase One:
68,146,177.22 CORE previously recovered through the Core network upgrade is planned to be returned to affected orders within 5–7 days. Based on the original affected balances, users are expected to receive about 70.2% first.
Phase Two:
The remaining unpaid portion will be gradually repaid through 50% of b14g's future Core staking business income, with users able to claim weekly. If more CORE is recovered later from exchanges, it will also be added to the repayment funds. This is a step forward compared to the previous phase which only had progress on fund recovery.Brothers, the market looks calm this afternoon, ZEC dropped sharply by 3.61%, and the order wall is down to only 40 million.
📊 Market Hidden Signals
The latest depth difference shows a green bar, with slightly thicker buy orders, but far less than the peak of about 120 million on November 6. Orders near ±1%: BTC has 885 million from three parties, ETH has 1.293 billion from six parties, SOL only 167 million, and ZEC just 40 million. The wall is thin, so when it drops, no one is there to catch it.
💰 Capital Flow
BTC spot net inflow is 44.8971 million, contract net outflow is 76.5473 million;
ZEC spot net inflow is 6.2174 million, contract net outflow is 28.1152 million.
ETH contract net outflow is 128 million, spot net outflow is 29.4993 million;
SOL contract net outflow is 56.5539 million, spot net outflow is 2.5688 million.
Spot buyers are stepping in while contracts are withdrawing, the only sign of warmth.
⚠️ ZEC Concerns
ZEC closed at 1262, down 3.61% in one day, the worst among the four coins. Open interest dropped 4.41% in 24 hours, but turned positive by 0.53% in 1 hour, the only short-term rebound. Some short-term buyers are returning, but positions are still moving out over the day. Don't overextend your bottom-fishing hands.
🎯 Position Battle
SOL closed at 89.15, still 1.15 above 88, haven’t taken half profits yet, continue holding. ETH short positions remain unchanged, 2235 is getting smoother to hold. BTC at 75819, stuck here grinding, direction not chosen yet, no adding or cutting for now. Until the order wall thickens, chasing ups or downs is just giving money to the wall.#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Brothers, good weekend. The market these past two days can be described as "both bulls and bears suffering, specifically targeting the stubborn ones." Taking advantage of this weekend's downtime, let's calm down, set aside emotions, and deeply review the current market purely with data and logic, as well as strategies for next week. 📊 1. Macro: Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, rate cut expectations completely dashed The biggest shock this week was undoubtedly the US October nonfarm payroll data released on Friday. · Added 165,000 jobs, completely crushing the expected 65,000; · Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, labor market remains strong. Once the data came out, market bets on a Fed rate hike in December instantly heated up. You should know that the crypto market's previous rebound relied on expectations of "rate cuts" and "liquidity easing." Now, the strong nonfarm data locks out short-term rate cuts, with a macro hammer hanging overhead, risk assets (including US stocks and crypto) simply can't catch a breath in the short term. Coupled with BTC ETF net outflows exceeding $1.1 billion over multiple days recently, institutional funds are also retreating from highs, the overall environment is definitely bearish. 📉 2. Technical: BTC's "false breakout" and "moving average meat grinder" Looking at the current 15-minute and 1-hour charts, BTC is oscillating around 75,900. The 24-hour high and low range is between 76,350 and 74,800. 1. False breakout to lure bulls: Last night the price rebounded from 74,800, reaching a high of 76,216, then quickly formed a long upper shadow and dropped. Technically, this is a classic "false breakout," intended toI used to easily mistake "everyone is watching" for "I understand it myself," the more lively it was, the more afraid I was to miss out. The lesson is, after watching for a long time, people really do take others' confidence as their own judgment.
Kalshi reports that the market trading volume related to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections exceeded $2.5 billion, nearly double the $1.3 billion of the 2024 presidential election cycle. As of the morning of November 4, popular candidates won 479 events with an accuracy rate of about 98%.
I think the easiest thing to amplify from this news is the impulse of ordinary people to participate. High trading volume indicates active trading but does not mean personal judgment is more reliable; the overall high hit rate of popular sides also cannot be directly applied to the specific event you chose. This reminds me of past hot market trends where everyone felt the answer was right in front of them.
Now I stick to two rules: write down a counterargument before making a judgment; no matter how high the heat, do not increase the originally set risk limit. Have you ever been misled by a high hit rate, and what rule did you add for yourself afterward?Liquidations reached 800 million, but one market has already started to "reverse"
Good afternoon. CoinGlass data: total liquidations across the network hit 812 million, with longs accounting for 668 million. But looking closely at the structure, one coin is moving completely opposite to the overall market.
SOL's funding rate is negative. It dropped 5.9% that day, and now shorts have to pay longs. This is the only mainstream coin where the crowd has truly reversed. To translate: SOL shorts have become so crowded that they need to pay to hold positions. If $89 holds, these shorts will fuel the next rebound.
What about BTC and ETH? Longs are still paying to hold and haven't surrendered. Despite the same drop, the position structures are completely opposite.
My judgment: the bottom for BTC/ETH is not confirmed yet, so don't rush to bottom-fish; the short structure of SOL is worth watching separately. My ZEC short position remains on hold, and SanDisk is also showing minor fluctuations.
In the same market, two groups of people, two directions. Don't use one framework to fit all coins. Do you have short positions on SOL?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Once the data came out, I only did one thing: reduce risk exposure but did not go fully out of the market. October added 165,000 jobs, while the market expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%—this data blocked half of the path for December. The tone on interest rates turned tighter; the first to run were not stocks but the crypto spot channels: the net outflow for the month has already exceeded $1.2 billion, withdrawing for the second consecutive trading day. There is a counterintuitive point here: strong employment should be good news for risk appetite, yet money is flowing out. The market fears not this interest rate decision, but the lack of room for rate cuts afterward—once liquidity tightens, the first to be cut are those with the highest leverage and no intrinsic cash flow. My judgment: the 75,800 level for Bitcoin is a short-term watershed; only if it stands above can we talk about a rebound, otherwise it will continue to grind. For longs, I only touch assets with real cash flow and no crowding; for shorts, I focus on those with high positions and absurdly positive fees. This round, I hold TRX, BNB, and LINK longs, with fixed take-profit and stop-loss levels; if the position is wrong, I exit without arguing with myself. Are you holding spot waiting for the next data, or betting on direction with contracts? #US October nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, December rate hike bets heat upStill expecting the bull market to reverse soon? Don’t rush to dream just yet. The clearest signal in the current market is that funds dare not enter, and trading sentiment continues to cool down.
The weekend market disappointed again.
$BTC remains suppressed below $76,000, with rebounds lacking strength. Although the bears haven’t made much profit, they at least maintain the advantage; on the other hand, many long positions are still in floating losses.
According to past market rhythms, after a big drop on weekdays, some degree of recovery usually occurs over the weekend, and a $2,000 rebound is not uncommon. But this time, not even a decent bounce appeared.
$ETH is also weak, continuously oscillating below $2,250, with clearly insufficient buying pressure.
What’s more worrisome is the funding side: BTC spot ETFs continue to experience outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks are under pressure, concerns about Federal Reserve rate hikes are heating up again, and risk assets naturally struggle to attract new incremental funds.
So at this stage, my strategy is very clear:
Don’t rush to bottom-fish, don’t blindly chase longs, prioritize shorting on rebounds at high levels.
The true market bottom requires confirmation from both funds and trend, not just emotional guessing.
Do you think BTC will continue to dip, or is it already close to reversing?
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket
#USJobsBeatExpectations Earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped nearly 10%.
Circle's Q3 report was released on November 4, with total revenue of 865 million, a 17% year-over-year increase, higher than the expected 778 million.
Adjusted earnings per share were $0.84, while the expectation was only $0.37, more than doubling.
But there's some fluff: 182 million came from a one-time ARC token presale; excluding this, revenue was negative year-over-year.
Reserve income was 658 million, down 8% year-over-year, with interest rate cuts eating into the core business.
USDC trading volume rose 49% to 13.9 trillion, circulation remained flat at 7.39 billion; volume increased but money did not.
The stock price was honest: before the earnings report it was 75.22, it surged to 76.12 on the day of the report but only held for one day.
On Thursday, it plunged 8.72% to 69.48, hitting an intraday low of 64.81, then fell another 2.3% on Friday to close at 67.88.
A three-day drop of 9.8%, more than halving from the 52-week high of $140.
Wall Street followed with price cuts: Wells Fargo from 115 to 101, JPMorgan from 110 to 100.
Waiting and watching, no chasing.
The beat was propped up by a one-time presale; the core is shrinking, and the stock price has voted with its feet.
Only a return to 76.12 would count as a re-pricing; falling below 65.71 means weakness continues.
Earnings beat but stock price fell—do you trust the books or the stock price?
$CRCL
#CircleEarningsThe U.S. elections are over, and the Democrats have taken both chambers. My friend's first reaction: It's over, tightening is coming.
Actually, not a single existing regulation has been repealed. The $BTC spot ETF will open as usual tomorrow; subscriptions and redemptions proceed as normal.
What has changed is the "instruction manual" — the CLARITY Act, which aims to clearly define who between the SEC and CFTC regulates what. It missed the 60-vote threshold by a few votes on September 15, but now with new people, the draft will be debated again.
The most awkward are the products waiting for approval: more categories of ETFs, complex derivatives, and DeFi stuff. $UNI relies entirely on regulatory definitions to survive, so it can only wait.
Retail investors won't feel anything in the short term and will keep guessing. Between fighting and talking, the market is waiting for "safe passage" rather than "action"
Mearsheimer's probing question still hits the mark: previous military actions have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz dilemma, so can limited US strikes on Iranian air defense facilities really reopen the strait? Qatar is still mediating US-Iran talks, but differences over reopening conditions remain unresolved, forcing the market to repeatedly price between "fighting" and "talking."
The three benchmarks show divergent trends: BZ at $98.32, up 0.03%, with supply premiums still supported due to blocked safe passage; CL at $90.83, up 0.34%, with prices constrained not only by Middle East risks but also US inventories, production, and demand; BTC at $75,746.93, down 0.26%, where high oil prices boost inflation expectations and compress rate cut space, indirectly pressuring risk assets.
The key is not the military action itself, but whether the energy corridor can truly be restored. BZ and CL depend on the recovery of physical supply and transportation, while BTC depends on changes in inflation and liquidity. Whether negotiations can be finalized is the common switch for the next moves in all three markets.
$BTC $BZ $CL
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Here are my thoughts. First, let's review the recent timeline: the neighbor was hacked (crash, hitting market confidence) — stabilize (combined with election expectations, retail investors thought it was a downward consolidation and continued shorting) — election results announced (rally, making retail investors think the bad news is over, bulls follow) — sharp drop (killing retail investors). Overall, this was a deliberate harvest coordinated by CZ. The evil capitalists don't see us retail investors as people, just as dogs to be walked. What’s next? I personally think the crypto sector will see another wave of decline. The financial market hasn't stabilized, panic is rising, bull support is limited, liquidity is insufficient, so the wick is long. Regarding storage, the Democratic Progressive Party is cooperating with capital to harvest through proposals. Many believe storage has entered a cycle and is a cyclical commodity; I will agree with this view in three years. Currently, storage is definitely not done; demand remains, and the great power competition continues. If the U.S. abandons AI, it’s like cutting off its own arm. Impossible, the Democratic Progressive Party is not stupid. The volatility will still be significant in the next two weeks, friends mustIn the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of the House of Representatives and flipped several seats in the Senate. The "manual" that the crypto community was waiting for has moved further away.
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold in a procedural vote in the Senate and has stalled. Its goal is very specific: to clearly define the jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, so that trading platforms and token issuers have clear rules to follow. The sticking points are how to calculate stablecoin yields, whether they will compete with bank deposits, and conflicts of interest involving officials participating in crypto businesses—issues on which the two parties cannot agree.
Now that the Democrats control the agenda-setting power, investigative authority, and hearing rights, they want to add tougher measures: stricter anti-illegal finance provisions, consumer protections, and restrictions on officials leveraging their positions to engage in crypto business. Whether DeFi protocols should bear broader responsibilities may be the core of the next round of disputes.
But don’t get the focus wrong—the current framework has not been overturned. Spot ETFs for $BTC and $ETH continue to operate as usual, and tokenized stocks and funds remain within the bounds of the law. What becomes truly complicated are products awaiting new approvals: more categories of ETFs, complex derivatives, and DeFi-related financial products, whose discussion cycles will clearly be extended.
Institutions will not withdraw; they will choose their paths. Without the market structure bill passing, asset classification, custody responsibilities, and compliance costs remain unresolved, so capital prefers to flow into tracks with clear legal foundations.
The operation of the new Congress in January 2027 and how committee chairs are assigned will determine whether this bill has a chance to return.$COIN ETF redemptions have amplified trading volume. Can this improve exchange revenue?
Coinbase's latest quarterly report shows a 10.7% share of crypto trading volume. High volatility may increase trading frequency, but revenue elasticity is determined by trading structure and fee rates. If the volume increase coincides with active retail participation and stable effective fee rates, profitability is more likely to benefit. However, if the incremental volume is concentrated in low-fee trades, the volume figures may overstate profit elasticity.The most vulnerable link in Ethereum is actually not the direction, but the leverage structure. When a 25x full-position long is liquidated, who exactly is the market punishing? Seeing that position record, my first reaction is not "who is right or wrong," but that this structure is too fragile. Majid opened a long position of 540 ETH at $2304, about $1.2 million, with 25x full leverage, and the liquidation price was set at only $2203. The price didn’t even move far before he was liquidated. On the other side, a large short holder holds about 5180 ETH short positions, with a nominal value close to $11.94 million, also 25x leverage, average price $2269, but the liquidation price is far away at $8303. Two directions, same leverage, but one is instantly liquidated while the other still has a huge buffer; the difference comes from position structure and entry point. What’s really worth watching here is which side the capital preference is leaning toward. The longs use full-position high leverage to bet on a very near rebound, indicating willingness to take risks but with extremely low tolerance for error; the shorts built positions around $2269, with unrealized profits accounting for more than 60% of their gains, holding a thick safety cushion and can wait patiently. The market at this moment looks more like a divergence phase rather than a clean start or smooth continuation: the bulls are rushing the pace, the bears have profits as protection, and neither side wants to back down first. Every time ETH price dips a bit, those who exit first are often not the ones who chose the wrong direction, but those who are over-leveraged and too close to the liquidation line. Translated to the market, I will pay attention to two points. The bullish path is: this kind of The Democratic Party's impeachment of the Secretary of Defense is the result, while Trump's move against Iran is the cause. Next week's crude oil market will be unsettled.
Conclusion first: CL US crude oil will still rise a bit more, no rush to short.
Oil didn't open over the weekend; everyone is waiting for a signal to act, so the after-hours market is also quiet.
After losing both houses, Trump launched a small strike against Iran on Friday, hitting Iran's Qeshm Island with two missiles, while deploying over 50,000 troops, more than 20 warships, and over 200 aircraft. Iran, having lost in the midterm elections due to Trump, has started negotiations for greater benefits.
1.
This means Trump and Iran are in a tough stance, increasing the probability of conflict escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening crude oil flow, and raising the chance of conflict heating up again. This is a bullish signal for crude oil.
2.
The Democratic Party impeaches the Secretary of Defense, Trump defends him; internal struggles will push Trump to resolve internal conflicts by uniting against an external enemy. This strategy was used by Germany before World War I and Japan during the Great Depression.
As everyone knows, crude oil flowing through Hormuz accounts for 30% of the global supply. If conflict escalates, the crude oil shortfall could increase by 10 million barrels per day, greatly increasing the probability of a price rebound.
Even just verbal escalation, policy uncertainty, or minor frictions are enough to push crude oil back above 95.
Only if substantial geopolitical conflict escalates and incremental funds enter the market to speculate on geopolitical expectations will the short-term rebound push crude oil back near 96 for trading, with short positions between 96-98.
Impeachment and tough stance on Iran are both tactics in the game between Trump and the Democratic Party.
In the short term, they can support a rebound in crude oil.
The height of this rebound is limited, so be prepared to short crude oil once it exceeds 96.
Don't forget, we've never lost when shorting crude oil.The US employment data has blocked the December path halfway back: 165,000 new jobs in October, waiting for 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. With the numbers landing, risk assets collectively froze, Bitcoin broke through 76,000 intraday and closed flat at 75,800, with the fear and greed index just above 30. What’s pressing it down isn’t sentiment, but primary funds still withdrawing — the spot channel saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.28 billion in November, marking the second consecutive trading day. Let me first report the last round’s results, I never start with a story: TRX long from 0.3203 to 0.3204 (+0.02%) with take profit at 0.3216 and stop loss at 0.3196, neither hit, direction was correct; ZEC short from 1,254.23 to 1,262.69 (+0.67%) with stop loss at 1,274.49, not hit, no success; LINK long from 10.781 to 10.726 (-0.49%) with take profit at 10.95 and stop loss at 10.68, neither hit, no success. One out of three was right, two missed, both orders stuck just above stop loss — no one got stopped out, no one made money. Here’s a counterintuitive point: the heaviest blow was the employment data, but the first money to be pulled out was from crypto spot channels. The interest rate side just tightened its tone, but the money is really leaving. Are you fully invested waiting for the next data, or sitting on the sidelines watching? For this round of three picks, I’m all long — not because I’m bullish on the market, but because each of these three has its own reasons. First, TRX A heavyweight trader known as Maji, with a portfolio of about $61.55 million, is seeing shorts making money while longs are bleeding — this contrast itself is the most honest thermometer of the current market 🌡️. $BTC short positions (40x leverage) have an unrealized profit of $562,800, with funding income of $186,700; $ETH long positions (25x leverage) have an unrealized loss of $1,812,300, with funding costs of $108,300; $HYPE short positions (5x leverage) have an unrealized loss of $1,665,200, but funding income as high as $1,229,700. Three positions, three fates, pointing to the same question: when directional judgment diverges from the funding fee structure, who is really paying for the positions? First, look at the most glaring comparison. $BTC shorts are the only "double-winning" position — unrealized price gains combined with positive funding income indicate that market bullish sentiment is still paying the shorts. This is not a simple bearish signal but evidence of leverage structure imbalance: high-leverage shorts can simultaneously benefit from price difference and funding rates, meaning there is persistent long crowding above the spot price. $ETH longs are the exact opposite, suffering both unrealized losses and funding costs, with the position cost under 25x leverage eroding principal in a compounding manner. What is truly intriguing is $HYPE: the short direction is wrong, with an unrealized loss of $1.66 million, but funding income of $1.22 million almost offsets more than half the loss. This reveals a truth overlooked by most — in extreme funding rate environments, being wrong on direction is not necessarily fatal; standing on the wrong side of funding rates is. From this, one can distill a...outflows of $416M dominate the discussion. That resilience is notable, but it leaves the market dependent on whether flows stabilize rather than on a broad risk-on impulse. A renewed acceleration in outflows would challenge this read. Not financial advice.