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#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed 50 Billion Not Enough, 100 Billion Is: DeepSeek's Latest Funding Round Is Not About Lacking Money, But About Buying Into the "Domestic AI Industry Chain" First
According to reports from Caijing and other media, DeepSeek's second funding round plans to increase from 50 billion to about 100 billion, with a pre-investment valuation still fixed at 500 billion; new investors include Shixi Capital, SMIC Juyuan, CPE Yuanfeng, Junlian Capital, and Geely—all "chip + vehicle + industrial capital"; existing shareholders CATL (planning to add about 10 billion more), Tencent, IDG, Lisi, and Shixiang also participated. DeepSeek has not officially confirmed, but this list itself is more explosive than the amount.
What Liang Wenfeng wants is not just more zeros in the bank account, but to weld computing power—energy—vehicle end—storage into a network before going public:
SMIC Juyuan/Shixi = domestic chips and storage;
CATL = electricity and energy storage for training clusters;
Geely = vehicle-end large model scenarios;
Tencent = traffic, cloud, developer ecosystem. Bitcoin is repeatedly oscillating between 81,000 and 84,000, with the 80,000 mark being a significant barrier. ETFs saw a net outflow of 681.1 million USD last week, and selling pressure before the CPI data won't be light. Mainstream coins like Solana and Hedera were all dragged down by the liquidation wave, while NEAR briefly rebounded on ETF inflows but softened again. The IMF is also chiming in, saying that the AI asset correction will impact the global bond market, indicating a tight macro environment.
Outside the booth, a foreign car tried to snag a parking spot. I pressed the remote but didn’t lift the barrier, then looked down to continue watching the market.
GTC is moving opposite to the broader market. The candlestick has stabilized above the Fibonacci 0.382 level at 0.2468, with a MACD golden cross and volume expansion, showing a complete bullish structure. The current price at 0.2484 is consolidating within the accumulation zone, with downside space locked. Above, between 0.255 and 0.260, there is a cluster of short liquidation positions—this is the gravity point, and the price will most likely move there to sweep liquidity.
Trading strategy: buy on dips. Enter gradually between 0.2468 and 0.2485, with the first take-profit target at 0.265. Once reached, watch volume to decide whether to hold further. Set stop-loss below 0.2430; if broken, admit the mistake and exit without holding the position. The bias is bullish, and short liquidations are the fuel.
$GTC
#SanDiskMicronDown, ChangXinTechnicalProgressInFocus
@OKXPlanet Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the September CPI will be released, which is the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.
Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI really slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not easing up. Cleveland Fed President Mester clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a large divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will be under pressure, with support at 81,500 to 82,000, and if broken, look to 80,000.
BTC is now around 82,000, up 0.8%. Many defenders have piled up near 80,000, so this position has short-term support. But the direction is not yet chosen; before the data release tomorrow night, avoid heavy bets.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH. #September CPI release imminent, Mester says further rate hikes are still needed Crypto exchanges are all rushing to integrate US stocks, increasing liquidity pressure. BingX launched over 7,000 US stocks and ETFs today, with orders routed through Alpaca; Bybit followed suit yesterday. Leading platforms are embedding US stock access directly into crypto accounts, allowing funds to flow back and forth between stocks and crypto. Coupled with high interest rates and stubbornly high US Treasury yields, the substitution effect of equity assets on high-risk crypto assets is growing stronger, with high Beta coins being hit first.
BTC is currently at $83,704, near the lower bound of the range. $83,000 is a key level; breaking below it could lead directly to $80,000. On the upside, there is resistance at $86,000, which needs strong volume to reclaim in order to shake off short-term bearishness.
ETH is at $2,525, falling more than BTC, with the exchange rate still weakening. $2,500 is the next support line; breaking it could see a drop to $2,400. Resistance on the rebound is at $2,650.
ZEC is at $1,228, down 8.61% in 24 hours. While mainstream coins remain stable, it is being sold off on its own as funds withdraw from privacy-focused and other fringe narratives. Due to thin liquidity, its pullbacks are often several times larger than the broader market, so chasing highs or bottoms requires caution.
Exchanges moving US stocks into crypto accounts is just the beginning of capital diversion; with a weak market, defending support is more important than chasing rebounds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are seeing simultaneous outflows; has institutional demand weakened? Is it still time to roll the position now? I really regret not doing it earlier!
Seeing ZEC's big bearish candle directly smashing through 1162, my heart is truly bleeding.
It's not because it dropped, but because I hate myself!
Clearly, when it was above 1300, I was sure it couldn't go higher, so why didn't I dare to be bolder and roll the position?
Now looking at the 1354% profit in my account, others envy it, but I only feel regret.
In this bearish trend, I got some gains, but because of fear, I missed out on the fattest piece!
Why am I so sure this drop isn't over yet?
Check out the latest fundamentals: ZEC's NU7 upgrade plan has sparked concerns that v4 transactions might be disabled.
Privacy coins fear protocol instability the most, and this basically shakes its technical foundation!
The main players are using this news to wipe out retail investors who were shouting "bullish quick recovery."
Look at the 4-hour chart: from 1384 down to 1112, then rebounded to 1349, and now turning down again to 1162.
This is not bottom building; it's the main players repeatedly pumping and dumping, tricking hopeful bulls to get slaughtered one wave after another.
Now retail traders are scared and rushing to short, the long ratio plummets, but this actually shows the real panic selling isn't over yet.
The major trend has completely turned bearish
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#InstitutionsKeepPositioning, why is BTC still under pressure? $BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just 0.3% shy of the opening price; $ETH bounced from 2,409 to 2,532 but didn’t reach back to 2,560, with resistance at 2,580 like a wall; $SOL rose from 101.63 to 108.56, still 3% short of 112.19. When funds face uncertainty, their first reaction is always to retreat to BTC.
The macro environment hasn’t eased at all: Harker hawkishly stated that inflation has spread from energy to AI infrastructure and electricity, with a rate hike in September and nearly 88% probability of another in December; CPI data is due Wednesday. On the ETF side, BTC saw an outflow of 679 million in the first week, ETH has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days, and ETHA had a weekly outflow of 477 million—BTC has buyers, but ETH is truly bleeding.
So this is a BTC-led recovery, not a return of risk appetite. Focus only on three things: BTC holding above 84,360 (a volume-light surge still needs to retest 82,800–83,000); ETH reclaiming 2,580 (losing 2,536 would escalate the pullback); SOL breaking through 113. Only when all three move together can it be considered diffusion; BTC running alone is risk-off; if BTC falls below 83,000, this recovery is discounted.
SOL’s quick bounce is a high Beta instinct, not strength—real strength is whether it can reclaim lost ground.
#September CPI release imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed $ETH 一觉睡醒，盘面翻了个面。
大饼深V，从80961拉回83574，以太也从2407弹回2523。
但是先看一个数据，昨天大饼和二饼的ETF，同步净流出。
问题来了，机构在撤，价格却在V，这波反弹是谁拉的？
答案不难猜。爆完仓的空头回补，加上散户抄底，再叠上费率洗干净之后的轻装上阵。
这三种钱拉出来的反弹，有个共同特点，来得快，没后劲。机构的钱没上桌，桌子就没那么稳。这种V我见得多了，十次里有七次是空头回补。
所以别看到V就喊反转。我的尺子还是那把，一天是离席，连续才是撤退。反转过来也一样，一根V是情绪，明天ETF继续流入才是钱回来了。
明晚八点半还有CPI，哈玛克早上还在放鹰，说要更快更频繁地加息。CPI要是再炸一次，今晚这个V就白V了。
我自己的纪律没变，深V不追，回踩不破再看。这波要是真反转，不差这一天。要是假反弹，追进去的人又得给庄家送一单。
大家觉得，这波深V，是空头回补的虚火，还是反转的开始？
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ETH $SNDK #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $SNDK $SKHY $MU Why the bearish outlook? 🔥🔥🔥
First, remember one thing: stock prices trade on expectations, not the present.
If you’re still browsing the news, you’ll see NAND and DRAM spot prices rising—that’s a fact; but capital is already thinking ahead about the story to come.
The storage sector is weakening, and there are several core concerns:
First, worries that there’s no big buyer to support the price anymore! Previously, Samsung and SK Hynix propped up stock prices with massive buybacks, but the market expects that money is running out.
Second, concerns about overcapacity! Global manufacturers are planning expansions, and with breakthroughs in domestic high-end storage, the market is worried in advance whether supply will increase in a year or two, cooling down the cycle’s heat.
Third, lowered expectations for AI! OpenAI’s latest revenue isn’t as exaggerated as rumored online, so capital is starting to consider: will the cloud providers’ frenzy to hoard storage slow down a bit?
The previously blind optimistic premium is being gradually withdrawn by the market. The overall trend going forward is down. For specific entry points, Sister Xi will notify here 👇👇👇STRK at $0.086, do you dare to bottom-fish?
It took only 4 days to surge from 0.05 to 0.126, then it dropped back to 0.086 in two days. Everyone is shouting "L1 + quantum resistance takeoff," but with unlocking the day after tomorrow and CPI tomorrow—are you buying the bottom or halfway up the mountain?
Let's look at the surface first: a normal pullback after a sharp rise, daily chart still above the moving averages, RSI just over 60, not oversold.
In the past month, STRK doubled, up 65% in 7 days, hitting 0.126 on October 11, a nearly 10-month high. Then on the 12th, a big bearish candle smashed it down to just above 0.08, a 30% drop in one day. Today it’s still down 14%-18% in 24 hours, ranging between 0.082 and 0.107.
The candlestick tells you: 0.086 is exactly the 50% retracement level from the starting point 0.048 to the high 0.126. Daily EMA20 (0.06) and EMA50 (0.047) remain intact, the major structure is not broken. All technical analysts are shouting: 50% retracement is a golden pit, buy it!
But I want to ask you:
Have you ever seen a "normal pullback" that is the first high-volume long bearish candle after a sharp rally, and unlocking happens the day after tomorrow?
First thing: The L1 narrative is just a "consideration"
On October 8 at Token2049, StarkWare’s Eli Ben-Sasson said: they are considering spinning off from Ethereum L2 to become an L1, aiming to be the first quantum-resistant network by 2027.
The market immediately priced this in. STRK surged from 0.05 to 0.126 in a few days.
But note: this is "considering," no governance approval, no migration timeline, no mainnet launch date.
In plain language:
The project says "I might do something big in 2027," and the market treats it as "already done."
On-chain activity and fee revenue lag far behind the price increase. This rally is a valuation re-rating, not a fundamental change. 0.12 has already overextended the story.
What does "buy the rumor, sell the fact" mean? This is it.
Second thing: 127 million tokens unlock on October 15, selling pressure will be amplified by leverage
The day after tomorrow, October 15, about 127 million STRK will unlock, accounting for 3.4% of circulation, roughly over ten million dollars at current prices.
Sounds small?
But look at the current market structure: 24-hour volume is 300-400 million dollars, close to market cap. This is not a slow bull market, it’s leverage and short-term trading at play.
After a sharp rally, contract positions are crowded, funding rates are positive, many longs.
Unlocking at this time, even if only dumping over ten million, can trigger a chain of liquidations.
The negative impact isn’t huge, but at the wrong time, it’s a nuclear bomb.
Third thing: No macro tailwind, CPI is tomorrow
BTC is oscillating between 82,000-84,000 USD, spot ETFs saw significant outflows last week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.2%, liquidity is very unfriendly to high-beta altcoins.
Tomorrow, October 14, is the US CPI release.
The Fed already raised rates once in September; the market is wavering between "pause in October, raise again in December." If CPI beats expectations, volatile coins like STRK will be the first to get cut.
Individual narratives can run independently for a few days, but unlocking day overlapping with CPI leaves very little margin for error.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
L1 + quantum resistance narrative, big imagination for 2027
Daily chart still above EMA20/EMA50, major structure intact
Protocol v0.14.4, mobile proof, staking vault, long-term story intact
0.086 is exactly 50% retracement, technical analysts see this as the decisive zone
On the other side:
L1 is just "consideration," no governance approval or timeline
127 million tokens unlock on October 15, leverage crowded
CPI tomorrow, US Treasury 5.2%, BTC ETF outflows
On-chain activity and fees lag far behind price
FDV based on 10 billion total supply is close to 900 million USD, not cheap
Key level 0.086, resistance above at 0.100 is the lifeline, support below at 0.082 is the critical point.
Resistance above: 0.088-0.090 → 0.093-0.096 → 0.100-0.103 (round number resistance + crash start) → 0.120-0.127 (previous high)
Support below: 0.082 (24h low, break accelerates) → 0.074-0.078 (61.8% retracement) → 0.065-0.068 → 0.050-0.055 (last defense line for this bull run)
Daily chart bullish, hourly chart bearish. Typical large-scale uptrend intact, small-scale distribution ongoing.
Trading strategy
Short term (before unlocking, before October 15):
Default to wait and see, or only short on rebounds, do not chase longs.
0.082 is today’s critical point. If 1-hour candle can’t reclaim it, next target is 0.074-0.078, weaker target 0.065.
Rebound to 0.093-0.096, if volume can’t keep up and there’s another long upper shadow, reduce position or short, stop loss above 0.100.
Only a 4-hour volume breakout closing above 0.100 means the dump was bought back, then look at 0.110/0.120. Before that, treat all rebounds as escape waves.
On unlocking day and after:
If on the 15th it dumps to 0.074-0.078 or even 0.065, and BTC doesn’t break down, small position can try to catch a rebound, stop loss 4%-5% below entry low, target first 0.088, then 0.096.
If unlocking day doesn’t drop and directly breaks above 0.100, it means selling pressure was absorbed by spot, then follow along, don’t guess early.
If daily closes below 0.050, this L1 narrative trade ends, back to bear market consolidation, don’t hold on.
Positioning iron rules:
Keep total perpetual risk to a very small part of the account, single loss limit 1%-2% of net value.
Currently funding rates are positive, contract positions high, longs crowded, prioritize preventing spikes, don’t use high leverage to "bottom-fish halfway up the mountain" at 0.086.
STRK now is like ARB in 2025—
L2 leader, narrative upgrade, grand ecosystem, everyone thinks "this time is different."
What happened?
Unlock dump, narrative falsification, price halved from highs again and again.
In crypto, after a coin doubles, any "good news" might just be fireworks to unload.
$BTC $ETH $STRK Standard Chartered’s RLUSD custody announcement matters less as a product launch than as evidence of institutional plumbing being assembled. Trading and collateral plans still depend on testing and approval, while FASB consultation shows accounting treatment remains in development. Adoption may hinge on these operational layers, not branding alone.
#StandardCharteredRLUSD #pons has been continuously declining, when will it finally rise?
First, let's talk about why it has been falling continuously (not a single negative factor, but four overlapping ones):
1. The overall Robinhood Chain heat has cooled down: On-chain DEX trading volume dropped from a peak of $3.51 billion on September 4 to $1.21 billion now, a 65.5% decrease.
2. Platform revenue collapsed, insufficient "ammunition" for buybacks: Pons daily revenue fell from over $2 million on September 5 to about $72,000, a 96% drop.
And PONS's price logic is "80% of revenue used for buyback and burn"; without revenue, the buying pressure disappears. The team also admitted that the burn rate was not adjusted timely and the claiming process was not fully decentralized. They are upgrading the contract; the new mechanism is to claim once every 7 days and use all proceeds for buyback and burn.
3. Negative events in the ecosystem: On September 28, continuous rug pulls were exposed on Robinhood Chain, with the same group linked to 53 token issuances and cashing out about $18.43 million in two months;
At the same time, Robinhood CEO reduced holdings by 375,000 shares, and Cathie Wood's ARKK sold about 152,000 shares, with HOOD stock price dropping from 127.42 to 108.8.
4. Competition and diversion: Uniswap's Pools.trade entered the same track with zero fees, issuing more volume than Pons on the first day; meanwhile, funds were diverted to the recovering Solana ecosystem.
When will it rise? Watch these 4 signals, more useful than watching K-lines:
Whether platform daily revenue can rebound: This is the only real source of buying pressure. From $72,000 moving towards $500,000 or $1 million, buybacks can support the price.
Weekly burn volume after the new buyback mechanism is implemented: Currently, 32% of total supply has been burned; after the upgrade, weekly burn amount is a verifiable hard metric.
Liquidity realization from exchange listings: On October 8, Coinbase, Upbit (KRW/BTC/USDT), and Bithumb launched listings concentratedly, but this has not yet reflected in the price. Next, watch if their trading volumes can pick up.
HOOD stock price and BTC environment: PONS has weak correlation with the overall market, mainly depends on its own fundamentals, but HOOD is an emotional anchor. $PONS
What truly determines if it can rise back is whether the issuance heat of Robinhood Chain can revive — without that, relying solely on buyback and burn is hard to withstand selling pressure.Macro inflation expectations are heating up, putting pressure on risk assets, with Wednesday's CPI in focus.
When the US stock market crashed, $BTC also softened. Current price is 82.1K, after a push to 84.2K last night was pressed back, down over 2% intraday. Bulls lack momentum after the rally, while bears have returned to apply pressure. The ratio of large holders long to short has steadily declined; many bulls have exited, but bears don't hold much either, so the drop isn't deep, with bears slightly dominant. Be cautious about going long on BTC in the short term. Don't rush, wait for the CPI.
On-chain: ETFs had a net inflow of 127 coins yesterday (about 10.49 million), turning positive for the day, but still a weekly outflow of 8,538 coins (about 704 million). Institutions show no sustained direction. Mid-sized whales increased holdings by 86,702 coins over three weeks, the highest since April, while super whales have been selling for three consecutive months. The largest holders are accumulating, not withdrawing. Exchanges saw inflows of 11,593 coins over three days, but a net outflow of 28,599 coins over 30 days, with reserves around 2.67 million coins, at a cyclical low. Supply is shrinking, buying demand is insufficient, and there is significant divergence.$BTC was at 81,500 this morning, still at 82,400 at 7 o'clock, with Asian sell-offs continuously hitting, dropping as low as 81,200. Open interest is 93,200 contracts, previously nearly 100,000, so quite a few have been washed out, but the funding rate is still positive, indicating that leveraged liquidations are not over yet.
For a short-term rebound, it depends on whether BTC can hold above 84,200, not just bounce up and fall back down. Also, CPI should not push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher again, or macro pressure will return.
Right now, don’t try to guess the bottom; just see if anyone is willing to keep buying at 80,000.
The macro environment is also very pressured: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, with money being drained out. ETFs saw a net outflow of 679 million from October 5 to 9, with 485 million outflow on the 7th alone. Trading volume is also low, averaging 6.8 billion on the 7th, less than 90% of trading days since 2024. Prices rose but volume didn’t follow; retail investors are inactive, and ETFs are still flowing out. The problem isn’t too much selling, but insufficient buying strength.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are potential long liquidations of over 100 million near 83,000, and another batch around 82,100-82,200. On the upside, there are 250 million short liquidations between 84,600-84,750, so a little spark in the spot market could trigger a short squeeze. #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU storage stocks are dropping again. On October 12, SanDisk fell 5.97%, Micron dropped 3.88%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also followed down. In the past 7 trading days, 6 days were down, indicating the sector has entered a weak consolidation phase.
The core logic behind the decline is not that AI demand has disappeared. The market is starting to reassess the future supply and demand landscape. ChangXin Memory just disclosed progress on its new generation 4F² DRAM architecture and plans to launch server memory products by the end of the year. Mass production capability has not yet been verified, but expectations have already been set. If ChangXin really takes off, the storage capacity landscape will change between 2027 and 2028, and the price increase logic will need to be recalculated.
Additionally, Samsung and SK Hynix's large-scale buybacks are nearing completion, and foreign investors are reducing their holdings. The sector had risen too much earlier, so any slight disturbance causes profit-taking to accelerate.
The impact on crypto is indirect. Storage stocks falling cools AI hardware sentiment, risk appetite contracts, and Bitcoin also comes under pressure. But Bitcoin's main conflicts remain US Treasury yields and CPI; storage issues are not a directional switch. #ZEC has entered the top ten, accelerating institutionalization. Don't chase BTC yet, and don't rush to sell either. $BTC
On the afternoon of October 13, spot price was about $83,861, almost flat in 24 hours. Today's low was 81,033, high was 84,166. It broke below 81,000 overnight but pulled back, this is a rebound after leverage washout, not a new round of rally.
The daily chart is still weak. The 5-day moving average is 83,017, price just stood above it; the 10-day moving average is 83,801, and the 20-day moving average is 84,018, both pressing overhead, MACD remains bearish. The current range is 81,000 to 84,200, real resistance is at 86,000, which was the level not held in early October.
The contract explains why it could pull back today: 24-hour volume about $6.95 billion, open interest about $2.49 billion, funding rate only 0.003%. The whole network had about $800 million liquidations in 24 hours, nearly 90% were longs. The funding rate is not hot, longs have not re-entered aggressively.
Spot ETFs are still seeing outflows this month, about $390 million net outflow in the first 7 trading days. Oil prices and US Treasury yields remain high, and tomorrow is the US September CPI. If data is strong, 81,000 will be tested again; if data is weak, there is a chance to touch 86,000.
For holders, 84,200 to 86,000 is selling pressure, don't add if daily close can't reclaim 84,000. For non-holders, don't chase at 83,800, wait for a pullback to 81,000. If daily close breaks below 80,000, the rebound is invalid, next support is 76,000. Only if daily close stands above 86,000 and holds, can it be considered a trend reversal. Until then, any rise should be treated as a rebound.
This is just market observation, not trading advice.Many people think they are trading in the same market, but in fact BTC, ETH, and ZEC each exist in completely different parallel universes. The rules, players, and survival laws are all different.
$BTC Universe: Pricing power is in the hands of institutions here. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds are the main players; they focus on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and global liquidity. Market fluctuations are driven by macro factors, and retail investors are merely passive recipients. In this universe, the most profitable strategy is "allocating alongside institutions" rather than frequent trading. BTC's price movements are the result of institutions voting on the credit of the US dollar.
$ETH Universe: A technical testing ground for developers and protocol layers. The core players here are core developers, L2 teams, and DeFi protocols. Prices are driven by technical upgrades, staking yields, and value capture ability. Retail investors in this universe are most easily misled by "technical narratives," because technological progress does not equal price appreciation. The iron rule in this universe is: only when upgrades change the supply-demand structure is it worth betting on.
$ZEC Universe: A refuge for privacy purists. The players here are privacy geeks, quantum-resistant pioneers, and regulatory arbitrageurs. Prices are driven by scarcity narratives and trust games. Due to the lack of institutional channels, liquidity is extremely poor and volatility is very high. In this universe, holding spot positions dead-still may be consumed by liquidity; quick in and quick out is the way to survive. # Semiconductor sector faces concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6%
【AI's reckoning has finally begun, and the South Korean stock market has crashed,】
South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 6% intraday today, with core AI chain stocks like Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY being directly hammered, as foreign capital massively withdraws. On the surface, it looks like a South Korean stock crash, but the real market being traded might not be Korea itself, but whether the recent wave of AI investment frenzy is truly worth it.
In recent months, semiconductors and AI infrastructure have been the main focus of capital concentration. The problem is, after stock prices have risen too fast, the market starts to ask a new question: can these massive capital expenditures really be recouped with profits of the same scale in the future? Once this expectation loosens, the first assets to be sold are always those with the largest gains.
Can the AI sector continue to enjoy high valuations? If capital begins to withdraw from AI growth stocks, high-risk assets like Crypto will very likely be repriced together.
Of course, the market might just be taking profits. Going forward, it depends on whether US semiconductor stocks can stop falling and whether capital flows back. If it's just a price drop, the story hasn't changed; but if doubts about AI returns start, then it's not just a one-day market issue.CPI落地，$BTC 和ETH的剧本每次都一样？
兄弟们，CPI发布夜的K线是不是总让你怀疑人生？明明核心CPI超预期了，$ETH 却能一小时拉6个点。别急着喊“利空出尽”，那根阳线背后是空头踩踏，不是新资金进场。
CPI对币圈的冲击本质是利率预期博弈。核心CPI环比每高出0.1%，加息概率就能从70%跳到90%。但市场不傻，前几天的砸盘已经提前消化了鹰派情绪，数据落地反而触发空头回补。
本周10月14日CPI，我的判断：
若整体CPI因油价拉升至0.6%但核心只有0.2%，市场大概率先杀多头再V反。BTC上方83300是分水岭，有效站上才能挑战85000；下方82500一旦失守，8万见。ETH更脆弱，跟跌幅度历来大于大饼。
策略很简单：别在数据公布前站队。 热CPI先观望等砸盘，冷CPI顺势跟多。数据公布后第一根15分钟K线的高点，才是真正的方向确认信号。
你上次CPI行情是吃了肉还是挨了刀？
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ZEC 之前独领风骚，现在跟跌不跟涨，这味儿你还没闻出来？
兄弟们，ZEC之前有多猛不用我吹，一年干700%多，灰度ETF疯狂输血，空单踩踏推着飞。那会儿谁提ZEC，群里都喊“隐私之王”。
现在呢？风停了，猪摔了。灰度ZCSH一周净流出近5900万刀，机构在跑路。大饼、以太一拉胯，谁还管你隐私不隐私，先跑为敬。
有人说“819巨鲸”加仓了ZEC，跟着大佬准没错。兄弟，大佬扛得住几千万浮亏，你扛得住吗？巨鲸加仓不是买入密码，人家可能是在补仓摊成本，你跟着冲就是给人垫背。
盘面也很诚实：大盘红一下，它磨磨蹭蹭；大盘一扭头往下，它跌得比谁都快，24小时最多跌超10%。这已经说明它没底气走独立行情了，基本看主流脸色吃饭。
操作思路：别追多，反弹到压力位冲不上去就空，止损放前高上面，目标看继续跟跌。想抄底的，等大盘企稳、ZEC自己站稳再说。现在接，容易接一脸。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 最危险的那一环，永远是山寨高杠杆。 你有没有发现，这轮下跌里最疼的从来不是BTC？ 看到有人晒单，四个仓位全在扛。ETH在2661开的五十倍多单，现在2421，浮亏1821U，回报率负450%。BTC在83669的多单，现价81304，亏441U，负141%。最惨的是ZEC，1316进的多，现在1146，浮亏1037U，负258%。四单加起来亏了快3300U。 我盯着这组数字看了很久，真正让我在意的不是亏损本身，是亏损的分布。BTC只跌了不到三个点，ETH跌了九个点出头，ZEC直接蒸发了十三个点。同样的市场，同样的方向，结果差了四五倍。这不是运气问题，这是资金偏好写在盘面上的答案。 市场在交易什么？交易的是确定性溢价。BTC有ETF通道、有机构托底、有宏观叙事撑着，跌下去有人接。ETH卡在升级预期和实际需求之间，叙事不够硬，跟跌不跟涨。而ZEC这类老山寨，平时靠情绪撑着，一旦风险偏好收缩，买盘瞬间消失，跌起来根本没有缓冲带。五十倍杠杆放在这种结构里，不是勇敢，是把命交给了最脆弱的那一环。 偏多的路径也存在。如果CPI和PPI数据不炸，加息预期松动，BTC稳住八万关口，资金会先回流主流，I thought my defenses against Bitcoin and Ethereum were strong enough, but then came another ZEC.
After being crushed from both long and short sides and repeatedly stabbed on BTC and ETH, leaving me mentally exhausted, I thought I had developed nerves of steel.
But then I looked at ZEC's trend and realized this is what true psychological torment looks like.
Only this time, the blade is swinging towards the bulls.
Let's analyze the logic behind why ZEC's current downtrend is far from over:
The fundamental logic is completely shaken. The risk of ZEC's upgrade has erupted, with the planned NU7 upgrade in November potentially disabling v4 transactions.
For privacy coins, the underlying protocol is the lifeblood. Now that lifeblood is in turmoil, triggering a panic sell-off.
Once the technological moat leaks, a valuation of several thousand dollars is just a castle in the air.
Looking back at my old short position taken from 1593 to now, the +1152% unrealized profit looks great, but only I know the psychological torment endured along the way.
The forced liquidation is far away at 2197, and a margin rate close to 3000% is the confidence that lets me watch coldly.
As long as no extreme macro black swan events occur, I’m set to take the profits from this trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed $SNDK $SKHY $MU 存储板块为什么持续走跌？会跌到哪里？
这波下跌最大的导火索就是Michael Burry公开加码做空存储赛道💥
他点名美光：存储这波涨太多，市场把短期缺货、涨价，当成了“未来好几年都能赚大钱”；一旦后面大厂扩产、供给上来，周期很可能拐头，股价要剧烈回调。
消息出来第二天9月23日，存储板块（SNDK、MU、SKHK集体低开杀跌，就是这一轮下跌的起点信号
九月末陆续出来了一些利空消息
1.【三星+SK海力士之前合计接近400亿美元的股票回购提前结束】💥
市场慢慢意识到：这笔托市资金要提前收工了，没有持续买盘兜底；外资开始连续从韩系存储龙头撤出，情绪顺着传导到美股SNDK、美光。
2.另一则重磅消息就是长鑫。
【长鑫存储公布下一代4F² DRAM架构重大突破】直接瞄准之前美韩垄断的高毛利AI服务器DRAM市场，长鑫的成本更低，这对美光、闪迪、海力士都是重大的冲击💥
市场开始疯狂讨论：“涨价还能持续多久？2027年会不会供给过剩？”
机构还在上调Q4合约涨价预期，但股价在跌。
因为资金开始算账：厂商都在规划未来两年扩产；现在火爆，会不会到2027年集中释放、供需反转？
周期峰值焦虑，是贯穿这一轮下跌最核心的行业逻辑！
3.拖累整个AI硬件链、间接带崩存储的是【AI端消息】💥
只要AI需求预期被怀疑，存储第一个受牵连。
OpenAI年化营收低于之前市场流传的700亿预期，只有接近500亿
10.8消息出来当天，整个半导体、AI硬件、存储板块又集体跳水一波。
4.交易拥挤度、获利盘本身就很重
从年中一路涨上来，存储是AI赛道里收益最猛的分支之一，很多筹码已经浮盈巨大；一旦风向变一点点，很容易出现“谁先跑谁划算”的踩踏效应，越跌越有止损盘出来
所以这次不是行业垮了，而是估值从亢奋往回拉！熹姐继续看空！Looking at storage stocks today, Hynix directly dropped about 10%, SanDisk in the US market fell nearly 6% yesterday, and Western Digital also dropped 2.6%. To be honest, this wave can't be blamed solely on US debt and the dollar; what really deserves attention is that the market is starting to worry about how long competition in the storage industry and AI investments can last. Recently, Changxin Storage announced progress in higher-density DRAM technology and plans to launch a new generation of server memory by the end of the year. Once the news came out, the market worried that competition would intensify in the future and that storage manufacturers would not find it so easy to maintain high profits. So I believe the market has already priced in the expectation of intensified future competition. Another layer of pressure comes from AI; previously, the market's expectations for AI storage demand were too high, and now there is concern about whether the investments can be sustained, making valuations vulnerable to a hit first. Therefore, I am short-term bearish on the storage sector but not fully bearish in the mid-term, since AI infrastructure demand has not been proven to have weakened yet. Going forward, I want to judge whether there is a substantial weakening based on specific data.Brothers, this $W rollercoaster, those chasing the highs are still standing guard at the peak, while the shorts have already gotten off early and are counting their money.
WUSDT short position entered at 0.02375, current price 0.019353, floating profit +18.53U, return +55.51%. Yesterday it was pulled from 0.017 to 0.0317, an 86% increase in one day. Many shouted "Cross-chain leader taking off" and rushed in, but a long upper shadow candle buried them all.
Why continue to be bearish?
First, the capital outflow is faster than expected. 24-hour contract turnover is 892 million USD, looks lively, but it's all short-term hot money, withdrawing after the spike, no sustained buying support.
Second, the October 16 unlock is hanging overhead. About 58.33 million W tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 0.9% of circulation, the market has priced this in advance, and the whales just used this rally to sell off.
Third, the order book shows B 68% vs S 32%, with thick buy orders but the price can't be pushed up, a typical support trap to lure longs, retail investors catching a falling knife.
Trading strategy: continue holding the short position, set stop loss above 0.023, first target 0.017, if broken look at 0.015. Don't rush to bottom fish, wait for the unlock to land and the market to shrink and stabilize before considering.
$BTC $ETH #September CPI announcement imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed Judging from the timing and pattern of the adjustment, I tend to think this wave of correction is not over yet, and with the probability of an October rate hike still so low, the usual CPI/PPI data would push the rate hike probability up. If that really happens, the drop will be even more severe.
I would only consider buying the dip if Bitcoin can return to around 75k; the three major storage coins also need to drop a bit more to stabilize.
If this is the scenario, it probably means the continued decline in the US stock market forces large institutions to sell Bitcoin to cover margin calls, triggering a chain reaction of declines, and ultimately only policy support can stabilize the market.papertrade的字面意思是纸手，协议出来好几天了，一直让“亏损即可挖”这几个字挡在外面，觉得自己见过，觉得很普通的想法。 但是今天早上细致看后，才恍然，别有洞天啊，怪不得蓝狐老师@lanhubiji 都亲自嘴几句。 先和大家一起讨论几个问题： 1、这个项目有几种参与角色 2、设计一个项目最难的地方在哪里？ 3、为什么papertrade不直接搞LP存款，那样LP散户也能参与啊？ 带着问题，我们先来细致捋一遍项目（长文预警） 一、Papertrade 是什么 Papertrade 是一个部署在 Hyperliquid 的 EVM 层上公平启动的全链上永续合约交易所。 用户不跟别人撮合，也不跟外部做市商交易，而是直接跟协议自己的一个 USDC 流动性池（称为 Martingaler LP）对赌。价格完全依赖 Hyperliquid 订单簿的 BBO mid（最佳买卖价中间价），通过预编译实时读取，因此号称零滑点、无资金费、无传统 notional 手续费，最高支持 1000x 杠杆，目前主要交易 BTC 和 ETH。 LP独特的来源（来自trader的亏损），是这个项目最源头，也是最Last night's deep V market was highly volatile.
If you got the direction right, you still made a profit this round.
Both BTC and ETH formed a V. And there was also some W?
Many liquidations occurred during the deep V market.
Let's take a look at the liquidation data. It's probably quite scary.
Looking at the market, long positions were mainly liquidated.
According to the latest liquidation dashboard data, the crypto market experienced intense leverage cleaning in the past 24 hours. Overall, the total liquidation amounts for the two major mainstream coins, BTC and ETH, remain high, and in short time frames (4 hours and 1 hour), they show a highly consistent directional pattern—short position liquidations dominate, indicating a strong short squeeze rebound recently.
BTC Liquidation Data
1-hour liquidation: 2,630,700 U
4-hour liquidation: 17,897,100 U
12-hour liquidation: 150,000,000 U
24-hour liquidation: 190,000,000 U
ETH Liquidation Data
1-hour liquidation: 249,800 USDT
4-hour liquidation: 10,695,400 U
12-hour liquidation: 150,000,000 U
24-hour liquidation: 180,000,000 U
Data Comparison and Analysis
From the total liquidation amounts, BTC and ETH are very close at the 24-hour and 12-hour levels. Within 24 hours, BTC's total liquidation is 190 million USDT, ETH's total liquidation is 180 million USDT, differing by only 10 million USDT.
It suddenly feels like a directional move is about to happen $ZEC That wave of ZEC's dominant market performance has temporarily cooled off!
Everyone knows how strong it was before, achieving over 700% in a year, fueled crazily by Grayscale ETF injections and a short squeeze.
But now the tide has turned: Grayscale ZCSH saw a net outflow of nearly $59 million in one week, institutional funds are fleeing; when Bitcoin and Ethereum falter, who still cares about privacy narratives.
Although that "819 whale" also increased their ZEC holdings, big players can withstand tens of millions in unrealized losses, so let's not treat the whale as a buy signal.
Looking at the market, it's quite straightforward: ZEC now typically follows the market down but not up; when the market is slightly up, it drags its feet, and when the market turns down, it falls faster than anyone else, dropping over 10% in 24 hours at worst.
In short, it no longer has the confidence to break away from Bitcoin's trend and basically just follows the mainstream's lead. #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hammack says further rate hikes are still needed What signal does Microsoft's heavily invested self-developed Maia 300 chip actually send?
Recently, Microsoft unveiled its third-generation self-developed AI chip Maia 300, with the key computing power part fully utilizing TSMC's 2nm process, and equipped with 288GB of HBM4 memory. This is not just about saving money, but also a deep concern from the giants about Nvidia's hardware monopoly.
From a technical route perspective, Nvidia tends to use a super-large single chip paired with high-bandwidth memory, while Microsoft plays with a multi-chip combination of smaller chips, using 2nm for the core and more cost-effective 3nm for other auxiliary parts. This design can flexibly control costs and is more suitable for handling large-scale long-text inference tasks in the cloud.
However, the biggest challenge for self-developed chips has never been the specs on paper, but ecosystem compatibility and deployment speed. Although there are reports of a grand plan to deploy millions of chips next year, truly shaking Nvidia's software moat built over many years remains a tough battle in the short term.
I think cloud providers develop chips not ultimately to completely replace anyone, but to have bargaining chips when negotiating with Nvidia.
Next, major companies' self-developed chips will move from behind the scenes to the forefront, forcing the entire hardware supply chain to accelerate internal competition.
From this wave of self-developed chips and supply chain patterns,
Microsoft $MSFT Nvidia $NVDA TSMC $TSM
$MSFT $NVDA $TSM
#Microsoft launches new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high CZ posted a condensed version of a long article on asset security on X yesterday, advocating that security investments should match the value of holdings and personal technical ability, addressing theft prevention, loss prevention, and inheritance together. Chainalysis statistics show that in 2025, there were 158,000 personal wallet thefts totaling $713 million, half of the previous year's $1.5 billion, although the number of cases is increasing. An overlooked aspect is that the more complex the offline computer and multi-location backup process, the higher the chance of user error, and losses from such errors have not been publicly reported. In the first half of 2026, there were 46 armed coercion cases involving over $30 million; cold storage cannot prevent these. I expect the number of personal wallet cases to continue rising this year, with the amount per case decreasing. $BTC holders should practically test their recovery process first. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice.First, let's talk about FIL's technical candlestick chart issue, which is also the strongest guidance for my trading. I am currently reviewing the trades.
The first analysis of FIL is because I was scolded harshly for three consecutive days because of this FIL.
The chart includes both 4H candlestick charts and 1H hourly candlestick charts.
Conclusion first: The best position for FIL in the morning happens to be the common support level of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. After touching this favorable position, together with the overall market, a clear bullish structure appeared on the hourly chart, so quickly enter a long position.
Reasoning:
Following up on the posts from the day before yesterday and especially one posted last night, I mentioned that 1.21 is a 4H-level previous high support for FIL. However, the sentiment was too poor last night, and there was no pause at 1.21; it broke down directly with no bullish signs at all. Naturally, this support level became invalid and useless for entry.
Today's second support level for FIL at 1.0728 was perfectly supported and eventually formed a bullish pattern, so naturally, just chase in and go long.
Off-topic: When I entered FIL today, I was on a boat trip out of town and didn't look at the candlestick charts. I had already done my homework yesterday and entered purely based on intuition. So far, the results are pretty good.
If this article gets me scolded again after posting, then to the brothers who scold me, you misunderstood me. It is definitely not my fault!! $SOL is just about playing mahjong, the K-line just turned downward. 100x leverage, entered at 110.5 and marked at 108.64, 168% profit, my card friends still don't know I've won big.
The sideways stalemate is broken! A sudden downward move in the silence, once the direction is chosen, so is the space. After contraction, a reversal is inevitable.
Trend: pressed from 110.5 down to 108.64, floating profit is considerable. Breaking down means bears dominate, follow to survive.
Structure defines space. Panic is likely a false break, loss is betting full position.
Take half profit first, defend the rest with stop orders. If you haven't entered, wait for a rebound failure, confirm then enter, don't be cannon fodder. $BTC $ETH #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed $BTC was at 81,500 this morning, still at 82,400 at 7 o'clock, with Asian sell-offs continuously hitting, dropping to a low of 81,200. Open interest is 93,200 contracts, previously nearly 100,000, so quite a few have been washed out, but the funding rate is still positive, indicating that leveraged liquidations are not over yet.
In the short term, to recover losses, it depends on whether BTC can hold above 84,200, not just bounce up and fall back down. Also, CPI should not push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher, or macro pressure will return.
Right now, don’t try to guess the bottom; just see if anyone is willing to keep buying at 80,000.
The macro environment is also very pressuring: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, with money being drained out. ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million from October 5-9, with 485 million outflow on the 7th alone. Trading volume is also low, averaging 6.8 billion on the 7th, less than 90% of trading days since 2024. Prices rose but volume didn’t follow; retail investors are inactive, and ETFs are still flowing out. The problem is not too much selling, but insufficient buying strength.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are potential long liquidations of over 100 million near 83,000, and another batch at 82,100-82,200. On the upside, there are 250 million short liquidations between 84,600-84,750; a little spark in the spot market could trigger a short squeeze. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously; has institutional demand weakened? #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed #Attack at Riyadh airport accelerates Saudi Arabia’s land oil transport layout $BTC $ETH $SOL
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed
Harker's hawkish stance now seems like a "preemptive warning" ahead of the upcoming CPI release. Her preferred "small, frequent rate hikes" imply that tightening won't end soon, rather than passively reacting after the data comes out.
The impact on the crypto market is bearish, but the extent depends on the CPI itself:
· Core logic: Rising rate hike expectations will push up U.S. Treasury yields (30-year near 5.7%), weakening the appeal of interest-free assets like BTC, while a stronger dollar suppresses risk appetite.
· Market pricing: CME data shows traders' bets on a December rate hike probability have surged to 88%, more hawkish than before Harker's speech.
· BTC reaction: After the news, BTC dropped to around $81,000, currently in weak consolidation.
The key is tomorrow night (October 14) CPI: expected year-over-year 3.7%. If core month-over-month hits 0.3%, it will confirm rate hike expectations, and BTC may dip to $80,000 or lower; if core month-over-month is only 0.2%, a short-term recovery rebound is possible.
In short: Harker has "cast the tightening spell" early, and CPI is the final judgment. Before the data, watching and waiting is safer than betting.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% The Korean stock market circuit breaker triggered again, with a maximum drop of 6 points. SK Hynix fell over 10%, and SanDisk has been crashing since yesterday. This scenario was just played out in July, when semiconductors fell for an entire month, but BTC instead slowly climbed up from the bottom. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC I said at the beginning of July that the semiconductor tide receding is good for the crypto space. At that time, crypto was at a low point while semiconductors were high; as long as a small amount of capital flowed over from there, it would be a real increment for BTC. That wave saw BTC rebound from 58,000 to 65,000, effectively pulling crypto back from the edge of a cliff. The trigger for this storage crash is very clear: ChangXin Memory announced a technological breakthrough, packing more storage units into the same area, directly challenging the monopoly of traditional giants. Once Chinese manufacturers succeed in the technology, mass production speed is never a problem. Plus, the storage sector has surged too much in the past two years, and the main funds already had a need to withdraw, so this adjustment is basically unstoppable. Not only storage, but optical modules are also taking hits; stocks like GLW, LITE, and COHR in the AI communication chain are all falling. Interestingly, BTC is actually in a rather awkward position now, having just gone through a round of correction at a high level, and another big wave could come at any time. But the semiconductor downturn might actually have helped it survive. This morning BTC retraced to around 81,000, and buying surged immediately, quickly pulling it back above 83,000, indicating strong bottom-fishing willingness. In contrast, the Nasdaq fell 0.8 points in early trading with weak rebounds, while BTC is clearly more resilient. The capital logic is actually quite simple: the storage sector weakens, so it has to... How this rebound came about: short covering + easing geopolitical tensions
BTC rebounded from the intraday low of 80,961 to 84,130, an increase of over 3,100 points. There are two driving factors:
Short covering is the main driving force. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $710 million, of which short liquidations accounted for $461 million, or 65%. The 83,500-84,200 range was packed with closely liquidated long and short positions, with shorts being concentratedly cleared at the low level, forming passive buying support.
The decline in oil prices provided marginal improvement. Brent crude oil fell from a high of $107.25, easing the previous inflation panic caused by the attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and oil prices remain high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% up to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI truly slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not backing down. Cleveland Fed President Mester clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a significant divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, putting pressure on BTC, with support at 81,500 to 82,000; breaking that level could see it test 80,000.
BTC is currently around 82,000, up 0.8%. There are many defenders around 80,000, so this level has short-term support. But the direction is not yet decided; before the data release tomorrow night, avoid heavy bets.$BTC 今早81500，7点还在82400，亚洲抛盘一直砸，最低到81200。持仓量9.32万枚，之前快10万，洗掉不少，但资金费率还是正的，说明杠杆爆仓还没完。
短期想回血，就看BTC能不能站稳84200，不是弹一下又掉回去。还有CPI别再推高美债收益率和美元，不然宏观压力又来了。
现在别猜底，就看8万有没有人愿意持续接盘。
宏观面也很压：10年期美债收益率冲到5.36%，2002年以来最高，钱都被抽走了。ETF 10月5-9日净流出6.79亿，7号一天就4.85亿。成交量也低，7日均68亿，比2024年以来90%的交易日都少。涨了但量没跟，散户不活跃，ETF还在流出。问题不是卖太多，是买盘不够强。
再从清算热力图看，83000附近有1亿多头的潜在清算，82100-82200还有一批。上方84600-84750有2.5亿空头清算，现货一点火可能轧空。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 📉 The storage sector continues to plunge! The real logic behind it is not the collapse of AI demand
The storage sector collectively weakened, with SanDisk and Micron sharply falling on October 12, down 6 out of 7 trading days, entering a weak consolidation phase.
The root cause of the decline is not the disappearance of AI demand; the market is re-evaluating long-term supply and demand: news about ChangXin's new generation DRAM architecture has been released. If subsequent mass production is realized, the storage capacity landscape in 2027-2028 may be reshaped, and the price increase logic needs to be reconsidered. Combined with Samsung and Hynix's buybacks nearing completion and foreign capital reducing holdings, a large amount of previously profitable positions fled upon the news, intensifying the pullback.
The weakness in storage only indirectly affects the crypto market by suppressing market risk appetite; however, the core variables for Bitcoin remain U.S. Treasury yields and CPI, and sector fluctuations cannot determine Bitcoin's major trend.
Personal operation:
Long Bitcoin at 83,000, short at 86,500 for hedging both sides, with a relatively light position; no betting on one-sided moves before CPI.
Long position: stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000
Short position: stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500-85,000
Whichever target is reached first, reduce that side's position first.
Temporarily watching the storage sector, waiting for ChangXin's mass production verification and supply-demand data before deciding. Do not chase rises or sell-offs; always set stop losses on positions.Why has the US stock market been performing so poorly recently?
The recent weakness in the US stock market actually stems from the memory sector, which has directly shaken market confidence in the AI rally.
Memory chips are the core hardware that AI computing power cannot bypass. Now the market is getting nervous, worried that the supply-demand situation might completely reverse. Domestic company ChangXin has made a major breakthrough in DRAM technology, which could very likely break the existing industry monopoly. Additionally, the massive stock buybacks by overseas giants have also been halted, removing a key support for stock prices.
A series of changes have caused investors to start doubting how long the high demand for AI hardware can be sustained. Memory-related stocks were the first to see massive capital outflows, and pessimism quickly spread across the entire tech sector, dragging the overall market down. In short, the whole market is now re-evaluating the various risks hidden behind this big AI surge! $SNDK $SKHYNIX #SemiconductorSectorSelloff, South Korea's KOSPI fell over 6% $BTC 兄弟们，这波反弹很猛，爆空加上洗掉不坚定的筹码，接下来大概率还有一波拉升。就算它是诱多，也不会在美股盘前就跌下来。只要大饼能站稳84000上方，直接多单进场，跟随巨鲸步伐吃一口主流多单。
从资金净流入的变化能看出来，市场已经回暖了。84000进场做多，第一目标看85000上方。
补充几个看多理由：
第一，巨鲸在抄底。Hyperliquid上那个15连胜的巨鲸，在81000附近开了1500万U的BTC多单，还在72000到81000挂了9000多万U的阶梯买单，摆明了等回调接货。
第二，链上数据支持。过去三周巨鲸增持了8.6万枚BTC，交易所净流出创七个月新高，大户在买，散户在卖。
第三，空头被清算。这波拉升爆了不少空单，空头踩踏会变成买盘，推着价格继续走。
第四，技术面企稳。BTC跌破81000后快速收回，说明下方承接很强，84000一旦站稳，上方空间就打开了。The more useful AI constraint may be shifting from supply to underwriting. Broadcom and Intel leaders still see near-term demand, yet their focus on financing costs and validated long-term returns suggests capital will increasingly favor projects with a credible path from compute spend to cash flow.
#AIFundingConstraints The big bearish candle of $ZEC directly smashed through the key support level. Watching the chart, my heart bleeds—not because I'm afraid of it falling, but because I hate being too conservative. I clearly saw the heavy selling pressure above that made it impossible to break through, yet I never dared to decisively increase my position and roll it. Now, the unrealized profits in my account are right in front of me, but all I feel is regret. I clearly grasped the bearish trend, but due to hesitation at the critical moment, I missed out on the fattest part of the profit in this market.
I am confident this downtrend is far from over. The core support comes from the latest fundamental changes: $ZEC's NU7 mainnet upgrade is approaching, and the protocol plans to disable the old v4 transactions. A large amount of funds locked in the old privacy pools face the risk of being unretrievable. The core value of privacy coins is entirely built on the stability and trustworthiness of the underlying protocol. Such a level of rule disruption directly shakes its technical foundation, and panic selling pressure will continue to be released.
There is still ample room to enter and roll positions now. As long as the stop-loss is set above the broken support line, you can follow the trend to catch the subsequent bearish market and recover the profits missed earlier.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously; has institutional demand weakened?
#Spot ETF funds are diverging; BTC selling pressure remains
#SOL continues its rally, with funds and on-chain demand resonating
$BTC $ETH $SOL Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% up to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI truly slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not backing down. Cleveland Fed President Mester clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a significant divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, putting pressure on BTC, with support at 81,500 to 82,000; breaking that level could see it test 80,000.
BTC is currently around 82,000, up 0.8%. There are many defenders around 80,000, so this level has short-term support. But the direction is not yet decided; before the data release tomorrow night, avoid heavy bets.BTC has rebounded from around 81,000 and is now hovering near 83,600. Many people are starting to call for a push to 85,000 again—
but after taking a look at the liquidation heatmap, I actually think the upcoming movement might not be that simple.
First, look at two key levels:
Above: 84,300–84,500
- The liquidation zone is glaringly yellow, with a bunch of long leverage stacked here
- If the price really pushes up, it will trigger a bunch of short stop losses, fueling the rise
Below: 82,100–82,300
- There's also a large liquidity pool here, which is the stop loss zone for those chasing longs
- If the price drops down, it will first wash out the longs who just chased in
The harshest scenario might be like this:
First, a drop down to around 82,200—sweeping out all the longs who just chased up from 81,000, clearing the leverage clean. Then suddenly reversing upwards, pulling to 84,400—taking out the shorts who chased in as well.
The price makes a round trip, the trend doesn’t move far, but the leverage on both sides is cleared.
But pay attention to one variable:
If BTC doesn’t sweep down but instead directly breaks and holds above 84,500 with volume—then the expectation of a downward shakeout is invalidated, indicating the bulls are really going for a strong attack.
So the two levels most worth watching now are: 82,200 and 84,400. Tokenized assets could eventually connect traditional financial products with blockchain-based settlement.
But there is a difference between creating a token and creating a useful market around it.
Investors still need clear ownership rights, dependable custody, sufficient liquidity, and rules that work across jurisdictions.
The technology matters but the financial and legal infrastructure matters just as much.
Which will drive tokenization forward fastest: better technology, clearer regulation.The Cardano Card will be discontinued on October 31, 2026.
To clarify: it's not an issue with the Cardano chain itself, but the card issued in partnership with Wirex is being discontinued. The reason is simple—Wirex is no longer providing custodial services and is switching to non-custodial, so the entire custodial infrastructure will be shut down accordingly.
Is this bad news?
Regarding the $ADA price, I think it basically has no direct impact. The discontinuation of a payment card is a completely different matter from on-chain activity and ecosystem narratives.
So why mention it?
Because I've been burned by the same kind of situation before. I've seen projects launch a card or a co-branded product, hype it up during promotion, and then a year or two later, the partner changes direction and just stops the service. Users holding that card can only wait for announcements and can't do anything else.
So the real signal to wait for is whether Cardano will take over the service themselves or just let it go. Don't rush to interpret now; wait for them to clarify the follow-up arrangements.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#渣打银行为Ripple旗下RLUSD提供托管服务 $ADA BLUR dropped by 30%, and Blur shutting down the frontend feels more like a dignified exit
Starting November 12, the blur.io web frontend will be disabled, and the NFT lending protocol Blend will stop matching new loans on the same day. Borrowers who don't repay before maturity will be considered in default. The official statement says the on-chain transaction protocol will continue running as usual, and token holders still control the fee switch. The same team behind Blast announced its closure on October 2.
The price reacted first. At 6 AM Beijing time, TokenPost reported $0.01548, and by around 11 AM it was $0.01275, a 32.7% drop in 24 hours, with a market cap around $44 million. Bitcoin hovered near 82,000 during the same period, with $672 million liquidated across the network in one day. The market was weak, but the 30% drop mainly concerns BLUR itself.
How to interpret this? The fee switch is valuable only if there are transactions on the protocol. According to The Block, monthly transaction volume peaked at about $1.43 billion in March 2023, but by this March it had dropped below $7 million. With the frontend shutting down, retail access disappears, transaction volume will likely shrink further, and the money distributed from the fee switch will approach zero. This is my inference. For unpaid loans in Blend, the collateralized NFTs will enter default procedures, possibly pushing floor prices down another round, but the scale is unknown.
On the 6th, Abstract also announced closure. I tend to think the market reads these events as one: the team is fully withdrawing. The official hasn't said this explicitly, but it can be considered another short target. You might try small positions with low leverage on $BLUR at highs. $BTC Fear & Greed 57: Not fear, but "greedy yet hesitant"
Today Crypto Fear & Greed is 57, a week ago it was 73.
This level is the trickiest: it's neither extreme fear (a buy opportunity) nor extreme greed (time to sell), but rather "thinking it will rise but not daring to add, thinking it will fall but reluctant to sell."
In line with macro:
Gold COMEX 4195.9, London Gold 4211.6, safe-haven assets are rising;
Nasdaq -0.44%, Philadelphia Semiconductor -2.7%, risk assets are trembling;
BTC 83800, stuck in the middle acting like a fence-sitter.
Under this sentiment structure, posts are most likely to mislead: "Add at 83800" or "Clear out at 83800" are both too absolute.
Real strategy: keep core holdings steady, trade between 82000–84500 for swings, reduce leverage to zero before CPI. #SeptemberCPIUpcoming, Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed Done! BlackRock ends nearly six years of underweighting U.S. Treasuries and officially shifts to buying bonds,
capital starts flowing back into U.S. Treasuries, crypto is in danger!
#BlackRock shifts to overweight short-term bonds, downgrades U.S. stocks
BlackRock directly raised short-term U.S. Treasuries to overweight, and long-term U.S. Treasuries moved from underweight back to neutral.
At the same time, U.S. stocks were downgraded from overweight to neutral.
This is a dangerous signal: one of the world's largest asset managers is starting to move funds back into U.S. Treasuries.
The 10-year yield has already touched around 5.25%, and this high yield is crazily attracting capital.
BlackRock itself admits this is about locking in returns and managing short-term risk.
When the largest asset manager starts to shift, a chain reaction can easily follow.
Institutions follow suit, funds rebalance, and liquidity in risk assets tightens.
High-yield U.S. Treasuries are attracting capital, and assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto are likely to come under pressure next.
My judgment:
The market trend is starting to change; don’t just look at the rebound, you can short at high levels!
$BTC: Key support is in the 81k-82k range.
If it breaks below 81k, it may dip to 80k or even lower in the short term; resistance above is 84k-85k, a breakout requires macro support.
$ETH: Relatively weaker; if BTC is under pressure, ETH is likely to break 2500 first, further targets are 2450-2400.
Mainstream altcoins like SOL/XRP: Weekly charts are already weak and more vulnerable to being crushed.
$SOL support at 105-107, XRP around 1.35.
Note: CPI comes out tomorrow, which is the biggest short-term variable.