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24-hour Greed and Fear Index: 27, major coins all retreating, market is in the fear zone!
📊 Core asset 24-hour data:
✅ $BTC current price 76000U, down 4.75% in 24 hours, long positions 47.34 billion (48.83%)｜short positions 49.6 billion (51.17%)
✅ $ETH current price 2237.09U, down 6.77% in 24 hours, long positions 27.58 billion (48.34%)｜short positions 29.47 billion (51.66%)
✅ $SOL current price 90.22U, down 5.23% in 24 hours, long positions 4.12 billion (48.39%)｜short positions 4.39 billion (51.61%)
Core analysis: Market sentiment is declining into the fear zone, with the three major mainstream shorts slightly dominant, short-term selling pressure is still being released. Market volatility is relatively high with a significant risk of spikes; leverage must be strictly controlled in operations to avoid blind bottom-fishing.A worrying thought crossed my mind today: what if Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress? Could this create another major challenge for the crypto industry? The biggest concern is regulatory uncertainty. If the crypto bill remains stalled, its progress could face further delays, creating more uncertainty for the market. For $BTC , the bigger question is what happens after the Trump administration leaves office. Will institutional support remain strong, or will capital continue flowiLast night's sharp drop triggered a flood of various market rumors! There are rumors that a wallet linked to Trump transferred about $346 million worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, sparking concerns about potential sell-offs and further intensifying panic.
Following that, the US stock market opened with tech stocks and memory chip sectors collectively plunging, and selling pressure continued to spread. Liquidations in the past 24 hours reached as high as $1.248 billion, with long positions being the main victims!
A 6% surge one day, followed by a 10% plunge the next—market sentiment and leveraged trading have become very apparent these days. The more intense the volatility, the more important it is to control position sizes and patiently look for opportunities.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is about to be released, with the market focusing on employment performance and the Fed's subsequent policy expectations. If the data meets market expectations, a short-term sentiment recovery is possible, and there could be a rebound over the weekend.
Additionally, Wanwan has observed that recently, the relatively resilient altcoins mainly include $ZEC, $UNI, and $PEPE Said it would break below 76,326 and to exit first, but today it directly crashed to 75,208.....
US semiconductor stocks cut 12% in one day, spot ETFs saw an outflow of 430 million on Thursday, yet the OKX long-short account ratio climbed to 2.99. More people are catching the fall!?
Tonight at 21:30 is the Nonfarm Payrolls. I’m watching 75,208; don’t stubbornly catch if it breaks below. It’s not recommended to chase longs before it stands back above 76,326
#美股遭大幅拋售：費城半導體指數創2020年3月以來最大單日跌幅 CARDS one day -24.6%, one week only -8.6%
Total market cap 24h -8.3%, $CARDS dropped to 0.228 USDT, 24h -24.6%, falling much harder than the overall market.
According to reports, Solana's event in Shanghai was stopped due to unauthorized promotion.
CARDS 7-day is -8.6%, the drop is significantly less than the 24h -24.6%, indicating the price 7 days ago was even lower than 24h ago. I double-checked these two numbers, the contrast is quite striking.
24h high 0.3054 USDT, low 0.2109 USDT. The current price is in the lower part of the range, much closer to the low than the high.
$SOL 24h -5.2%, $ZEC 24h +1.1%. Compared to these, CARDS dropped the most, while ZEC is still up.
CARDS 24h trading volume 3.57 million USDT, ranked 44th. With such a small volume, I’m staying away from it today. $DOOD is the token of the established NFT project Doodles, issued in 2025. After issuance, it has been steadily declining, with a market cap now only $14 million, a fraction of its all-time high.
More than ten days ago, a major event occurred: without any official news, it surged nearly 3x in two days, with a single-day trading volume of $640 million, 45 times its entire market cap. The money came fast and left even faster: it dropped back to the original level in four days; Korean funds then pushed for a second wave, but it fizzled out before reaching the previous high, halving again in ten days, crashing to 0.00157 last night.
Today is the first rebound after bottoming out: it climbed back to 0.00176 for the whole day, +10%, with small gains generally in the same sector. But the trading volume is only a fraction of the peak, indicating a rescue by existing holders, with no new money. There is also the looming risk of the treasury: about 690 million tokens were previously transferred to exchanges, accounting for nearly 7% of total supply.
In this market, the first day of a rebound is the easiest to deceive. The main holders start discounting once it hits 0.0019-0.0020; only if it breaks and holds above 0.0020 with volume can a second wave be discussed.
The verification point is in the next two days: can the intraday high of 0.00183 be broken with volume? If yes, the rebound upgrades; if not, it remains an oversold bounce, and if it falls below 0.0016, last night's bottom will need to be tested again.$SOL watchlist: I see a bounce setup, but I’m not taking it before the jobs report.
Why I like it: 90 held on the daily this week, the invalidation is clear (daily close below 88), and TP1 (97.5) sits at the daily 20 EMA zone.
Why I’m waiting: the weekly is still under its EMAs, and the data in 30 minutes can move this several percent either way.
If 90–92 holds after the print: TP1 97.5, TP2 102. If 88 goes, the idea is dead. NFA.
Would you enter before the data, or wait?$BTC | 4H MARKET SETUP
Current Price: 76,037.0
BTC is trading with limited momentum. The market remains near a decision point, requiring confirmation before the next directional move.
SHORT: 1H bearish CHoCH followed by a confirmed 4H support breakdown and retest.
LONG: 1H bullish CHoCH followed by a 4H resistance reclaim.
Focus on liquidity and volume confirmation before entry.#AAOIQ3RevenueUp128% Brother 800, after losing so much, do you have nightmares when you sleep?
Last night we could still see you
$SNDK 1377 profit over 30,000u, cost 1223
$SOXL 108 profit over 300,000u, cost 80.61
$SKHY 157.12 profit about 50,000u, cost 134.62
The account shrank from over 10 million u to over 6 million u. #SanDisk Q1 revenue up 378% YoY, Q2 revenue guidance strong
Originally, the market was unanimously optimistic about SanDisk's earnings report, expectations were high, a large amount of funds were waiting quietly for the earnings release to push prices up, and market sentiment was also bullish.
No one expected a sudden black swan event, the wallet incident shocked global risk assets, and the semiconductor sector faced a collective stampede.
In front of the main funds, retail investors' expectations were almost an open book. The originally expected earnings benefits were no match for systemic panic; the positive news instead became a pretext for funds to sell off.
This time it is not a collapse of individual stock fundamentals, but the overall market risk appetite being continuously suppressed, with negative factors piling up. Many thought it had bottomed out, but in fact it was just halfway down the decline.
In the current market, controlling your hands is the top priority, prioritize staying out of the market and watching, wait for this round of panic to fully release and the sector to truly stop falling and stabilize, then redeploy opportunities. Don't rush to enter and catch a falling knife; in this kind of market, patience is far more valuable than the positions you hold. #DailyOrbit The non-farm payrolls report is the most important monthly macroeconomic data influencing the Ethereum market. The core logic is that it changes market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which drives fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, thereby affecting the liquidity of risk assets. Ethereum tends to be more elastic and often reacts more intensely to interest rate expectations than traditional stock indices. If the non-farm employment data exceeds market expectations, it indicates strong resilience in the U.S. labor market. The market will lower its expectations for rate cuts, causing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen simultaneously. This leads to a contraction in risk appetite, putting downward pressure on ETH. Combined with concentrated liquidations in leveraged contract positions, short-term selling pressure will be further amplified. If the non-farm data falls short of expectations, signals of weakening employment will boost easing expectations. U.S. Treasury yields will decline, the dollar will weaken, and risk appetite will rise, often triggering a sharp rebound in ETH. When analyzing non-farm data, one should not focus solely on the number of new jobs added. Wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data often cause greater volatility. Wage data is directly linked to inflation and is a key indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. In most cases, the impact of non-farm data is just a short-term emotional shock, often resulting in a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. To achieve a sustained one-sided trend, internal factors such as Ethereum ETF fund flows, sector narratives, and contract positions need to resonate together. A single non-farm report alone is unlikely to change the existing trend. BTC breaks below previous low, mid-to-long-term bottom range and key support
Daily-level correction is not over yet. Below, combined with market structure, we analyze mid-term and smaller cycle trends.
4H/1H levels: Yesterday's rebound was misleading; the 75736~81196 rebound did not form a new mid-level pivot. Today it broke below the previous low, and the 4H correction continues.
Short-term core support is 74000-75000; stabilization here may form a new structure. If lost, look down to 72500 or even 70600, matching previous daily-level correction targets.
The 15-minute chart is currently in the second rebound wave; if it cannot break through 78800, another round of decline will follow.
ETH market trend is weak; a short-term break below 2174 will confirm the 4H-level daily fifth wave down.
The market will likely continue several days of oscillating correction; short-term support is at 2030, with extreme scenarios testing the 2000 level.
If today's 15-minute rebound cannot hold above 2400, adjustment risk remains. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
Mid-to-long-term cycles $BTC $ETH
Short-term corrections do not change the major bullish trend. This pullback is a consolidation and chip rotation after a big rise, a normal weekly/monthly correction.
Large-scale corrections trade time for space; 70600-74000 is a dense zone of strong mid-term support. A daily-level bottoming pattern is a good opportunity for mid-to-long-term positioning.
Short-term volatility can interfere with judgment; focus on weekly stabilization signals for mid-to-long-term, hold patiently, and the upward trend remains unchanged.A friend asked me to move $ETH from the mainnet to layer two
Said the fees are cheaper over there
I didn’t rush after hearing that
First, I went through tutorials for several bridges
The more I looked, the deeper it seemed
Some pages looked exactly like the official site
Only one letter difference in the domain name
I stared carefully for a long time to avoid clicking wrong
The first time I bridged, I only dared to transfer a tiny amount
Double-checked the network and address several times
My palms were a bit sweaty during those few minutes of confirmation
Only relaxed after the funds arrived
Later, I tried another route with $USDC
The process was similar
But fees and waiting times were different
I took notes to compare
$ARB arrived faster
I still didn’t dare to transfer everything at once
Split it into two transactions
Kept some on the original chain
In case the bridge has issues, not everything gets stuck
Now whenever I cross chains
I always say start with a small amount
Then check the domain and contract address
Don’t mind the hassle
Bridges are convenient
But one wrong click can cause a big headache#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $AKE surged to 0.0057 then got slammed, 15-minute death cross! Don't rush to catch the falling knife
Brothers, look at the latest 15-minute chart, this rally from 0.001888 shooting up like a spring onion, after touching the high of 0.005740, is clearly a bit "weak." Now the price has fallen back to around 0.0050 and is dithering. I know many are itching to jump in after a more than 90% gain in a day, but listen to me: now is really not the time to blindly rush in:
· 15-minute MACD death cross at high level: Look at the indicator at the bottom, DIFF and DEA have formed a death cross, red bars turning green (STICK: -0.000125). This is like a car climbing a hill suddenly easing off the gas, short-term momentum is fading, entering now is very likely to buy in at a mid-pullback.
· Volume contraction and sideways trading, the main force is watching: Look at the volume in the middle, during the rally there were huge volume bars one after another, now the price is oscillating at a high level but volume has clearly shrunk. This indicates that chasing funds have become cautious, the main force is most likely using this opportunity to shake out or quietly sell off.
#IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182% $AKE $AKE $BTC pierced the 76,000 support! Cross-asset panic resonance, bulls suffer consecutive liquidations
In the past 12 hours, Bitcoin rapidly plunged, breaking through the $76,000 mark intraday, with a 24-hour maximum drop approaching 6%. This plunge is not an isolated crypto market crash but a cross-market contagion triggered by the mass flight from risk assets on the US stock market's Black Thursday: the Nasdaq plunged over 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 12%, and the AI chip industry chain faced indiscriminate valuation cuts.
On the news front, the US midterm elections saw the Democratic Party take both chambers of Congress, forcing the market to urgently reprice two major risks: increased regulation of the AI industry and reduced capital expenditure by tech companies, while regulatory uncertainty for crypto assets simultaneously rises. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, the market began pricing in the possibility of a rate hike in December, putting collective pressure on high-risk assets.
On the charts, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq surged sharply, with the 30-day correlation soaring to 0.68. Bitcoin has completely transformed into a high-beta risk asset, no longer possessing independent safe-haven properties. The derivatives market is bleeding heavily, with over $1 billion in crypto derivatives liquidations across the network in 24 hours, 88% of which were long positions; BTC open interest contracts quickly fell from $28 billion to below $26 billion, as crowded leveraged longs were concentratedly liquidated, and chained forced liquidations further amplified the downward momentum. The short-term trading focus: whether 76,000 can be quickly reclaimed is the dividing line between strength and weakness, with resistance zones between 78,000 and 80,000. If the tech sell-off in US stocks continues, BTC is highly likely to continue probing lower for new support. Bullish on #$AKE Bullish on the AKE contract cannot be based on ignoring structural risks. The token structure of AKE is a typical "high FDV, low circulation": total supply of 100 billion tokens, with only about 22.8% in circulation. There is a multiple-fold gap between FDV and circulating market cap, and around November 21, about 2.1 billion tokens will be unlocked, accounting for approximately 9% of the circulating supply. On-chain chips are highly concentrated, with front-row addresses having a very high degree of control, which causes short-term price fluctuations of the contract to be driven more by leverage and chip games rather than smooth fundamental pricing.
Therefore, the bullish view here is not that "AKE will not fall," but rather that "at the current position, the odds of going up have started to significantly outweigh the risks of going down." After experiencing extreme liquidation, the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short naked is decreasing, and once the bulls get a catalyst, the elasticity will be sharply amplified by the low circulation structure. Exactly the question — AI panic hit chips first, then it spilled into crypto. $BTC fell with stocks because risk-off is risk-off, no matter the asset. But $75K is holding so far: support $75,000, resistance $76,873. If stocks stabilize, $BTC leads the relief bounce. Are you buying this dip or waiting for $75K to prove itself? #Bitcoin #BTC #ChipStocksFallOver12%如果你准备把一笔钱放上 Robinhood Chain，这一章先回答一个最朴素的问题：链上到底有哪些东西可以持有，钱实际在哪里，每一类资产的收益从哪来、风险是什么、多快能退出。 钱不在你以为的地方 提起 Robinhood Chain，大多数人想到的是股票代币：一家美国券商把苹果、英伟达、标普 500 搬上了链，任何国家的人都能 24 小时买卖。 链上的账本给出的是另一幅图。2026 年 11 月 2 日，这条链的总锁仓（TVL）约 10.83 亿美元，链上稳定币约 10.45 亿美元。这两个数字里，最大的单一用途是稳定币借贷：Morpho 上的借贷市场锁着约 6.2 亿美元，其中约 5.2 亿美元来自同一个金库。而 Robinhood 在 10-Q 里披露，截至 9 月 30 日，它发行的全部公开股票代币，公允价值合计只有 1.85 亿美元。 换句话说，这条以股票代币闻名的链，钱的主体是美元，不是股票。 这个对比决定了这本书的重心。一个投资者在这条链上能做的事，大致分成八类。我们先把它们摆在一张地图上，再逐一说明它们赚的是什么钱。 八类资产 一、稳定币：USDG 与 USDe 链上稳The crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report is coming tonight!
The market expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, up from the previous 29,000. This data will directly shake the entire market tonight.
If the data is significantly stronger, the dollar will rise, and risk assets will come under pressure and fall;
If the data meets expectations, there will likely be a spike followed by a pullback, with bulls and bears repeatedly shaking out positions;
If the data is clearly weaker, the dollar will weaken, providing a rebound opportunity for assets like SNDK and BTC.
Nonfarm market volatility is extremely wild, with false breakouts and rollercoaster moves being the norm. Do not take heavy positions betting on one side prematurely. Be patient and wait for the data to be released, observe the true direction of capital, then follow the trend accordingly. Beware of being stopped out by back-and-forth swings! #AAOIQ3营收同比增长128%，连续六季创新高 $BTC BlackRock deposited another 1,883 coins to the exchange, worth $143 million
BlackRock deposited 1,883 BTC to Coinbase Prime through IBIT, valued at $143 million, equivalent to $75,942 per coin.
What do we make of this news? Here's the conclusion first: this is not good news, but don't be scared.
Why is it not good news? BlackRock depositing coins into Coinbase Prime is part of the ETF redemption process. Depositing means shares are being redeemed, which means someone is selling the ETF. And this is not the first time. IBIT has been flowing out these days; on November 3rd alone, $95 million flowed out, accounting for 82% of the total $116 million Bitcoin ETF outflow that day. Today, another 1,883 coins were deposited, indicating redemptions are ongoing.
But why shouldn't you be scared? ETF subscriptions and redemptions are routine operations. The coins deposited are not necessarily going to be dumped immediately; often, it's just custody transfers. The real signal is in the ETF's daily net inflow, not in single transfers.
So how to view it now? Beichen thinks the key is tonight. At 21:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. If the data is poor and rate cut expectations return, the selling pressure from these 1,883 coins will be absorbed by buyers; if the data is good and rate cuts are off the table, this $143 million will be solid selling pressure.
In terms of action, don't chase shorts or longs, just wait for the Nonfarm.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ You teachers keep saying that US stocks never trap people... Indeed, they don't trap people, they just cause liquidation. So what's the point of trapping? You keep shouting to buy Micron and SanDisk every day—is there something seriously wrong? Micron dropped from a high of 1250 to 650, which is only a half retracement. You have been calling the bottom from 950, and even from last year's low, there are still many times profits. Americans hold all the low-priced chips, and the teachers are leading Chinese investors to take the dump 😂. This wave probably caused 60% of the crypto community to quit.
I’m done with Intel, this shady company. I got stopped out last night after a sweep. I won’t touch products outside my own field anymore. When US stocks fall, they are even more brutal than knockoffs. Just make money within your own understanding.
$ETH ETH dropped directly from above 2440 to around 2200, just like Bitcoin. The rebound is contract-driven; the spot market didn’t follow, so the drop is especially smooth. 2200 is the support to watch now; if broken, look at 2000. Above 2300 is resistance. After failing to hold the 50-day EMA at 2410, the short-term structure is already bearish.
$BTC This rally was weak from the start. When it broke 81000, open interest only increased by 0.3%, clearly pushed by short covering, not spot buying. After the shorts are squeezed out, the bulls become the next batch to be liquidated. That’s why I firmly told you to hold your short at 79400. There’s still a lot of long liquidation pressure around 75000, so there’s a high probability of another down wave. Around 77300 above, there is short liquidity; a rebound to near 77300 may trigger it.$BTC closed down 5.5% yesterday, and some think it should calm down today.
In nearly 300 trading days, there were 9 times with a close down ≥4%: on the next day intraday, 9/9 times it probed at least 1% lower, 7/9 times it probed ≥2% lower, with an average further probe of −3.0%. Today during the day it’s already −1.0%, and the nonfarm payroll at 21:30 hasn’t arrived yet.
The most expensive point on the day after a big bearish candle is not the opening, but after you think it’s over.
Not investment advice｜OKX BTC-USDT daily chart #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ The White House's schedule these days doesn't look good. On Wednesday and Thursday, there are two consecutive meetings with the topic of resuming military actions against Iran. At the same time, Central Command is completing related preparations but clearly states it has not yet received new orders from Washington.
What really deserves attention is not whether to strike or not, but a detail brought up in the meetings: November 9th in the Middle East coincides with a new moon night, meaning the night sky has no moonlight, which is favorable for military operations. The operational window is specified to a particular day and chosen based on astronomical conditions, indicating this is no longer just a theoretical exercise.
So why did the crypto market drop first? Because $BTC is currently priced as a high beta risk asset, not digital gold. The path is clear: geopolitical tensions push up crude oil prices, crude oil raises inflation expectations, inflation suppresses room for rate cuts, liquidity tightens, and the first to be hit are the high beta assets. $ETH and $SOL have even higher beta and greater volatility, so they fall sharply and won't be slow to rebound.
But pay attention to the phrase "no new orders received yet." Preparation does not equal execution. The market usually prices preparation as a one-time pulse, but execution leads to continuous repricing. So this drop now looks more like sentiment running ahead rather than a confirmed trend.
One point to consider: before such news truly materializes, crude oil and the US dollar index will move before the crypto market. If oil prices don't react, the crypto decline is just leverage changing hands; if oil prices jump first, that is a real risk repricing. Watch the sequence first, then discuss the direction.US stocks evaporated $3 trillion overnight — Nasdaq -5.52% in a day, S&P -4.36%. When stocks lose $3T, $BTC can't hide — it's still pinned near $76,100. Support: $75,000. Resistance: $77,770. My take: this is a stocks-led selloff, so watch the Nasdaq open before calling BTC's bottom. Stocks lead or BTC bottoms first? 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWall Street is in chaos, with stock groups being mercilessly sold off. $AAPL $NVDA $MSFT
After the Democrats won the midterm elections, the market began to worry about how policies will affect the AI investment wave.
Not just cryptocurrencies, even the US stock market has completely fallen, haha.
Either the Democrats don't like AI, or the market just wants an excuse to sell.🚨 Three Meme coins, three different stories, who is the real winner?
In the crypto market, some lose money while others seize opportunities. Now, $ARB, $PEPE, and $DOOD are attracting investors' attention with different market narratives.
Let's take a look at the opportunities and risks behind them.👇
🔹 $ARB – The story of reduced supply
The community has passed a staking proposal to lock 100 million ARB tokens. A reduced circulating supply may bring positive sentiment, but whether the market will truly rise because of this remains to be seen.
🐸 $PEPE – The power of Meme hype
Reports say Justin Sun has become the largest individual holder of PEPE, with holdings worth over $50 million. Coupled with a technical rebound after overselling, PEPE is once again attracting market attention. However, the hype may come quickly and fade just as fast.
🎨 $DOOD – NFT ecosystem rotation
As the Doodles ecosystem gains more attention and NFT-related funds rotate, DOOD is also entering investors' sights. But without sustained fundamental catalysts, price volatility remains a concern.
My biggest personal insight is:
I have experienced Meme coin liquidations in the past, which changed my trading approach. Now, I prefer to observe market hype rather than blindly chase gains.
#DailyOrbit SNDK｜Recovery rebound after a sharp drop, the key lies at this line
SNDKUSDT, 15-minute chart review.
After a rapid sell-off earlier, the lowest hit 793.7. Once the panic selling was exhausted, a wave of consolidation and recovery followed. The current price is 889.8, with a 24-hour increase of 6.84%.
This wave is an oversold rebound, not a direct trend reversal. The short-term moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 have converged, with bulls and bears battling here.
Key levels:
✅ First resistance: 901.7, the most critical current level. Whether it can hold above this will determine if the rebound can continue; the next strong resistance is the previous high at 981.7.
✅ First support: 877.7, followed by the SuperTrend defense line at 871.7. If broken, the rebound pace will slow, and the price may retest the lows.
Market outlook:
Holding above 901.7 gives bulls a chance to expand upward;
If pressure near 901 causes stagnation, a pullback is likely, with priority on testing the support strength at 877.
The storage sector is highly volatile, and the rebound is very much a battle. Focus closely on 901 as the watershed level.#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Nonfarm payrolls are revealed tonight, how will the market bet on a December rate hike after the sharp drop in US stocks?
Can US stocks make a comeback tonight when the nonfarm payrolls are announced?
Last night, the Nasdaq 100 was just cut by 6.36%, the sharpest drop since March 2020, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 12%, and the VIX closed above 28.
This morning before the market opens, it looks lively: Nasdaq futures up 1.1%, Micron up 8.9% pre-market, Nvidia +4.1%. But don’t be fooled by this 1%—Dow futures are still down 0.8%, money is just picking around in chips, not a full return.
Tonight at 9:30 PM, the consensus for nonfarm payrolls is only 65,000, previous value 29,000, unemployment rate 4.2%. Sounds low, right?
But ADP has already done 86,000, initial jobless claims dropped to 189,000 matching a 57-year low, and Goldman Sachs directly calls for 75,000. Here’s a counterintuitive trap: the stronger the data, the harder it is for US stocks.
Strong employment will supply ammo for a December rate hike, while the interest rate swap market’s priced-in hike probability has dropped from 80% a week ago to 68.7%. In other words, the market just priced in a "no rate hike" expectation, if nonfarm payrolls prove otherwise, this expectation will have to be reversed.
So tonight is not a simple "good data = rise, bad data = fall" multiple-choice question, but a question of which comes first: "recession trade" or "rate trade." If the data is a cold surprise, recession fears might push the chip rebound back down; if the data is hot, the rate bomb will suppress valuations. Both sides have risks. $AR
Permanent data storage addresses a problem that conventional cloud services do not always solve: long-term accessibility. Arweave approaches this through its blockchain-based permanent storage model. The interesting question is whether demand for preserving applications, websites, and digital records can translate into lasting network activity. Storage technology matters, but actual usage will determine its economic relevance.#IREN accelerates transformation to AI cloud, business revenue grows 182% quarter-on-quarter #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Key focus on two things:
✅ Actual sales of the updated COVID vaccine and overseas order deliveries, which form the current baseline;
✅ Commercial progress of the RSV vaccine, determining whether it can move beyond reliance on a single product.
COVID vaccines have shifted to seasonal administration, with unstable demand and high performance variability. Cost reduction can only improve profits in the short term; long-term value depends on the launch of new pipeline products.
This is just a review and discussion, not investment advice.On November 5, after the US stock market closed, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, with AI-related stocks leading the decline. Coinbase and Strategy dropped nearly 10% in a single day. Bitcoin weakened in sync, falling below $76,000, hitting a new low since September, with a 24-hour drop of about 5.5%, the largest single-day decline in nearly five months; Ethereum fell even deeper, to about $2,244, down 7.6% in 24 hours. This round of decline is not due to news from the crypto circle itself, but a transmission of risk sentiment from the US stock market—this time Bitcoin is more like a highly volatile tech stock. This wave is a sentiment-driven sell-off, not a fundamental reversal, but don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term. On Wednesday (November 4), the US spot Bitcoin ETF still had a net inflow of $74.6 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $53 million, just ending a continuous outflow; institutions have not completely exited. The real problem is that ETF money has come in, but the coin price was still dragged down by the US stock market, indicating that the current market leadership is in the hands of the US stock market. At 16:00 today, about $2.65 billion in Bitcoin options will expire on Deribit, with the biggest pain point at $79,000; at 20:30 tonight, the US October employment report will be released. Just watch two numbers: whether Bitcoin can hold the $75,000–$75,650 range, and how quickly it can recover the $79,000–$80,000 range. If it can’t hold, weakness will continue; a quick recovery is just an emotional shock.#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Before tonight's non-farm payrolls, the market's main theme is clear: after the US stock market bloodbath, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December remains around 69%–71%, but US Treasuries are already front-running a "narrowing rate hike space."
If the data is weak: rate hike expectations retreat → risk assets catch a breather,
$BTC first looks to defend 76,000, with a rebound aiming to break 80,000; $ETH's upward momentum is weaker than Bitcoin's, $SOL is recovering quickly from overselling but is the most volatile.
If the data is strong: interest rates rise, Nasdaq drops again, BTC is likely to dip around 73,000, ETH tests 2,200, SOL experiences the sharpest pullback.
My mid-term view: high interest rate pressure currently has no resolution yet. 🌙 Uncle's Night Talk｜11.06 ▍CRYPTO｜Touched 75,000 then climbed back to 76,000 BTC hit a low of $75,131 today, the lowest since mid-September, currently back near $76,100. Over 240,000 liquidations in 24 hours, with liquidation amount reaching $1.26 billion. Funding logic: Today, the crypto market is not the main character but a supporting role. It was hammered along with AI hardware during the day and then followed the rebound of US stock futures at night. It currently lacks its own independent narrative and is mostly following Nasdaq's risk appetite. Next focus: Whether $76,000 can hold overnight. If it can't hold, the weekend may continue to see tug-of-war around $75,000. ▍A-share Review｜4700 stocks down, volume shrinks by 460.2 billion: More painful than a crash is no one stepping in to buy Shanghai Composite -1.10%, Shenzhen Component -2.57%, ChiNext -3.96%, turnover 1.66 trillion yuan, down 460.2 billion yuan from yesterday. Computing power hardware is lining up on the decliners list: Cambridge Technology, Aohong Electronics hit limit down, big names like Industrial Fulian and Shengyi Technology also couldn't hold up. Counter-trend gainers are banks, power, and agriculture: Chengdu Bank +1.61%, Agricultural Bank +1.38%, power sector also had stocks hitting limit up. Funding logic: The most notable today is not the decline but the volume shrinkage. A decline with increased volume often means growing divergence and chip exchange; a decline with shrinking volume indicates reduced market participation willingness and insufficient buying support. Computing power funds are retreating, but still238,600 people liquidated in 24 hours, $1.25 billion, with longs accounting for 88%.
But the position data is moving in the opposite direction: long accounts increased by 25% in one day, short accounts decreased by 26%. The long-short ratio shifted from 58:42 to 70:30.
To translate — what's liquidated is leverage, what's entering the market is position size. Shorts are running, retail traders are catching the knife at 75,000.
The problem is 75,800 is the average cost line for short-term holders, and it has now been broken. This means there is a large group of losing traders above, and every rebound is their window to sell.
Tonight at 21:30 is the Non-Farm Payrolls, expected at 59,000, with a 68.7% chance of a rate hike. If the data is strong, we look directly at 73,000; if weak, it only gives the trapped longs a chance to escape.
The real bottom never appears when "everyone thinks it's cheap." #韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫 The recent sharp drop in KOSPI triggered a trading halt mechanism, mainly due to a global AI computing power valuation reassessment combined with market structure amplifying selling pressure. Samsung and SK Hynix have very high weights, with memory chips as the core pillar of the index. HBM was previously the main theme of this AI rally, with concentrated capital bets; once expectations reverse, the downside elasticity is very strong.
The trigger came from the US midterm election results, with the market worried that the Democratic Party will tighten data center approvals and raise computing power construction costs, directly weakening the long-term demand expectations for memory chips; combined with high US Treasury yields and the upcoming non-farm payrolls tonight, foreign capital is withdrawing early from the highly elastic Korean tech stocks. Meanwhile, the sector had large prior gains, accumulating significant profit-taking positions, with concentrated Korean leveraged ETFs and retail margin financing; after the drop, this triggered a chain of forced liquidations, intensifying the sell-off.
The market is now repricing two core risks: slowing capital expenditures by major manufacturers and gradual release of memory capacity, with HBM premiums falling. However, fundamentals have not completely deteriorated; long-term AI demand remains, representing a valuation correction rather than a cyclical reversal.
Going forward, focus on tracking US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, HBM pricing, and foreign capital trading trends. If tonight's non-farm payrolls are hawkish, pressure on Asia-Pacific tech stocks will continue; if employment cools, risk assets may see a recovery window. $BTC $ETH $SNDK *Trump media transfers 4259 BTC, not confirmed as a sell-off!*
*Core:* Trump media transferred *4259 BTC, about $344 million* to http://Crypto.com, in two transactions: 2140 + 2119 BTC.
*Key clarifications:*
- On-chain data only proves a *transfer*, not a *sale*; no official confirmation of a sell-off
- This amount is almost equal to its convertible bond collateral of *4260.73 BTC*, facing a maximum redemption pressure of about *$1 billion* on November 30
- The company still held *9477 BTC* at the end of June, not a full liquidation
*Market linkage:*
- After the midterm elections, Trump-related tokens plummeted: TRUMP -21%, MELANIA -13%, WLFI -11%
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market recorded its largest single-day drop since March 2020
- BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about *$1.1 billion* in the past 7 days, with BTC pressured to fluctuate near 80K
*In a nutshell:* This is not a confirmed run, but a warning signal before debt maturity; the market is betting on whether it will be forced to sell coins to repay debt.
> Reminder: Avoid saying "liquidated 99.99%" as it can be misleading; transfer ≠ sale. Today's second short draft post, recommend posting soon:
Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF just received $237 million on Wednesday, but $199 million flowed out on Thursday. In one day, over $400 million went back and forth.
The whole market is following this rhythm: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $430 million on Thursday, with none of the 12 funds attracting money. November has only had 4 trading days so far, with a cumulative outflow of $870 million, and the $74.6 million on Wednesday was the only net inflow day this month. (Source: Farside, SoSoValue)
My view: Wednesday's "inflow" looks more like short-term funds reacting to election market conditions, not long-term buyers returning. If real buying pressure existed, it wouldn't be given back in one day. Bitcoin holding at 76,000 now relies on the breathing room after leverage clearing, not ETF support.
From now on, I only watch one thing: consecutive net inflows for two or three days before discussing whether the rebound has a foundation. Don't take single-day inflows too seriously.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC NVIDIA evaporated over $440 billion in one day, is AI really about to collapse this time?
Last night, the US stock market took a heavy hit. NVIDIA plummeted 9.3% in a single day, closing at $181.60, wiping out about $446.6 billion in market value in one day.
Even worse was AMD, which dropped 17.3% straight down. Just a few days ago, everyone was discussing how strong AI chip orders were, but suddenly the entire sector got crushed.
But I think there’s something worth pondering about this round of decline.
NVIDIA’s chip demand hasn’t suddenly disappeared, and giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon haven’t announced stopping data center construction.
What the market worries about is something else: money is being spent too aggressively.
Several tech giants plan to invest at least $720 billion in capital expenditures this year, most of which is related to AI infrastructure. Now data center construction is also facing pressures from power, costs, and policies.
If projects get delayed, NVIDIA’s order delivery schedule could also be affected.
However, NVIDIA’s current expected price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to about 14 times, even below the S&P 500 average. Just looking at this number, it’s indeed not as scary as before.
I won’t conclude that the AI rally is over just because of one day’s plunge, but I’m also not rushing to bottom-fish. The November 17 earnings report and management’s judgment on subsequent orders and deliveries will be very critical.
If NVIDIA’s performance continues to grow but the stock price keeps falling, do you think the problem lies in valuation, or is the market starting to doubt whether AI investments can pay off?$WLFI
WLFI rose by more than 3 points. Looking at today's two pieces of news together, I still hesitate to call it a buyback rally.
On one hand, the House Oversight Committee may investigate World Liberty Financial in February 2027; on the other hand, the USD1 supply is reported to have dropped to 3.63 billion USD. Both pieces of news require follow-up details; an investigation plan is not an investigation conclusion, and changes in supply cannot be directly equated with fund withdrawals.
OKX spot is about $0.04682, 24-hour low $0.04355, high $0.04887; perpetual positions about $8.22 million, fee rate 0.005%, leverage positions are not thick. The price has returned from the low to the middle, but this range is insufficient to define the news.
I prefer to wait until the reasons for the USD1 supply change and the scope of the investigation are clear before judging which side this matter falls on. For now, just note the news and do not rush to answer for the market.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 I always thought hedge funds closed because they lost money. This time it's different—Room40 Capital returned all external funds to clients and quit.
The reason is a bit harsh: the profits weren't enough to justify the risks. The boss, Paul Yablon, also mentioned the $6.3 billion Binance hack, specifically saying he didn't keep assets there.
To translate: he's not afraid of a drop; he just feels the table no longer has good cards. Then he went back to Moore Capital to do macro trading, switching venues to keep playing.
So is he too conservative, or have we, still watching the $BTC candlestick charts, gotten used to mistaking no opportunity for opportunity? $BAM
Does an increase in assets under management mean Brookfield's profits grow proportionally?
Brookfield Asset Management is entering its Friday earnings report window. Fee-paying assets, management fees, performance fees, and exit proceeds are not measured on the same basis. Total AUM growth may come from valuation changes or new capital inflows.
If fundraising converts into recurring management fees and exit proceeds support distributions, the earnings quality is better; if profits rely on a few exits or valuation adjustments, I would reduce extrapolation of recurring revenue.A fund has shut down, but not because of performance. Room40 Capital returned all external capital, keeping only its own funds and one institutional partner. Smaller in scale, it speaks more freely.
At the helm is Paul Yablon, former portfolio manager at Moore Capital. His explanation is brief: the risk-reward ratio is asymmetric, and profitable crypto opportunities are scarce. To put it plainly—he can't find a worthy table to bet on anymore.
He casually pointed to the $BNB-related $6.3 billion hack and specifically emphasized that Room40 holds no Binance assets. This is worth pondering: it’s not an excuse after losing money, but a clear disassociation before leaving.
What’s more interesting is where he’s going. Not to another crypto fund, but back to his old firm as a macro portfolio manager. The direction is clear: money isn’t flowing from Bitcoin to another coin, it’s flowing out of the entire asset class.
Judgment: one fund’s exit doesn’t define the market, but it is a sample. When professional capital sets the tone with "opportunities are scarce" rather than "prices are cheap," it’s not a valuation issue, it’s a structural one—repeated security incidents, narrowing profit paths, and a declining tolerance for volatility.
One thought to leave with: the price of $BTC is never decided by this kind of news, but its foundation writes one rule—how many institutions are willing to allocate. If this rule is slowly crossed out, it won’t drop that day, but it will gradually become harder to rise later.75200 was tested twice but not broken; will tonight's non-farm payrolls decide life or death? Yesterday I was still dreaming above 80000, but tonight I'm focused on the 75200 line, feeling quite anxious. Overnight $BTC touched 75200, a seven-week low; Nasdaq fell 5.5% in one day, Nvidia dropped 9.3%, AMD fell 17.3%, marking the worst day for US stocks since April 2025. Over $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions.
My inclination is: 75200 might really be a critical threshold this time. It was tested once overnight and again in the afternoon at 75300, both times not broken; the shorts even took a hit in the afternoon, with nearly 877,000 liquidated shorts versus only 178,000 longs in the past 4 hours, those chasing were taken out. After a full day of decline, the price still managed to stand back at 76000, so the shorts aren't having it easy either.
On the flip side, a bounce back doesn't mean a reversal. It hovered above 76000 all afternoon, but couldn't hold 76300; if the non-farm payrolls at 21:30 tonight cause US stocks to fall again, the 75200 level might not hold a third time. If it breaks, the next stop is 73000.
So tonight, a straightforward question: do you think holding 75200 twice means a bottom and it's time to get in, or do you think this rebound is just giving shorts a position, and breaking 75200 will send it straight to 73000?
Just a market record, not investment advice
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Damn! The Nikkei has officially entered a bear market 😂
US stocks AI sector crashed, and Asian chip stocks all went flat. The Nasdaq dropped about 5.5%, the S&P about 4.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell over 12%. The Nikkei closed down about 6%, at 57434, down more than 20% from the June high, textbook bear market. South Korea's KOSPI once fell over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker.
BTC is still hovering around 76,000. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $430 million yesterday, and 24-hour futures liquidations were about $1.26 billion. US stocks are coughing, Asia is feverish, and the crypto world is shaking along.
If you didn't drop more than 5% today, come out and check in. Brothers and sisters, today Pharaoh glanced at AAOI's earnings report while holding his coffee and almost thought his presbyopia was acting up: Q3 revenue soared 128% year-over-year to $269.9 million, setting records for six consecutive quarters, with data center revenue more than doubling. Logically, with such an "AI computing power selling shovels" performance, the US stock market should be celebrating with fireworks. So what happened? After-hours stock price dropped first, falling more than 10% at one point. Pharaoh put down his coffee and broke it down for you; the impact on the future trend of the US stock market lies entirely in these three points below: 1. Even explosive revenue growth can't save the "gross margin bottleneck" life. AAOI's data center revenue is indeed strong, with visible acceleration in demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules. But the problem lies in the profit side: gross margin stubbornly stuck around 28.2%, barely moving; GAAP operating level actually still lost $1.4 million, and the net profit on the books is propped up by "other income." In plain language: business is growing bigger, but the hard-earned profit per dollar sold hasn't increased. The US stock market's patience with AI hardware stocks is running out; capital wants "revenue up, profits up"—just relying on scale narrative is no longer enough. 2. Capital is moving from "AI infrastructure" to "value stocks," and AAOI is just a microcosm. Recent US stock market signals are clear: institutions are systematically withdrawing from capital-intensive AI infrastructure and shifting to cyclical value stocks and high-quality defensive assets. AAOI's Q4 guidance midpoint is $40.25 billion, below the disincreasing, the rate hike expectations will be However, last night's drop was more about selling on expectations. As the director analyzed earlier, if the non-farm performance is good, it might actually cool down rate hike expectations, giving the market a chance to make a V-shaped rebound. Regarding the Democratic Party's bill, it is currently just a proposal, representing a signal of tightened AI regulation and uncertainty, which has amplified risk-off sentiment. But no matter who takes office24-hour spot fund data released! Short-term bottom-fishing funds aggressively enter the market, with BTC and ETH seeing significant inflows over 6-12 hours, while the daily level still maintains an outflow pattern
📊 Fund statistics for each coin:
✅ $BTC
6 hours: net inflow of 164 million U
8 hours: net inflow of 159 million U
12 hours: net inflow of 133 million U
24 hours: net outflow of 392 million U
✅ $ETH
6 hours: net inflow of 69.8584 million U
8 hours: net inflow of 59.706 million U
12 hours: net inflow of 67.3631 million U
24 hours: net outflow of 87.3382 million U
✅ $SOL
6 hours: net inflow of 2.7036 million U
8 hours: net inflow of 3.0491 million U
12 hours: net inflow of 3.9861 million U
24 hours: net outflow of 7.8391 million U
Core analysis (based on market updates):
At the daily level, BTC and ETH overall still show outflows, and medium-term selling pressure has not been fully released.
However, short-term inflow signals are strong, with significant capital entering for bottom-fishing at the 6 to 12-hour level. SOL also shows a slight inflow, with bottom-fishing funds in the market beginning to build positions in batches.
In simple terms, it’s a process of selling while absorbing; daily selling pressure is still being released, but short-term bottom-fishing funds have already started entering to accumulate.High-Leverage Whale Shorts Exposed! $BTC , $ETH & $SOL All in Profit Another major whale's futures portfolio has been revealed, with a total position value of approximately 57.2 million $USDT. The whale is simultaneously holding short positions in $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL using high leverage. All three positions are currently showing substantial unrealized profits, while also generating additional income through funding fees. 📊 Position Breakdown 🔹 $BTC | 40X Short - Position: 269.59 BTC - PositAI massive retreat???
Friday's Taiwan stock market sell-off was quite brutal, with the weighted index closing down 4.51% at 39,701, and TSMC falling 4.69% to 2,135 TWD. The morning session was even more extreme, with the weighted index plunging 3,737 points at one time, marking the largest intraday point drop in history, hitting a low of 37,837; TSMC opened hitting the limit down at 2,020 TWD.
The trigger was the overnight heavy plunge in U.S. semiconductor stocks, with the market lowering expectations for U.S. data center expansion, causing Taiwan stocks and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to collapse in tandem.
After-hours policy was swiftly implemented: the National Stabilization Fund activated its market support for the 10th time, and from November 9, the short selling limit on borrowed shares was reduced from 30% to 3%, and margin requirements for short selling were raised to 130%. Foreign investors' selling pressure was fierce, with net sales exceeding 994.3 billion TWD in October, and another 524.4 billion TWD sold through November 6.
Short selling restrictions plus market support can only suppress volatility; pessimistic expectations have yet to be cleared. In the short term, Taiwan's semiconductor stocks remain bearish at high levels, U.S. market sentiment is unstable, and the Asian chip supply chain continues to face pressure and volatility. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $ARB is displaying powerful bullish momentum with aggressive continuation potential.
Structure remains firmly intact as buyers dominate every minor dip.
EP
0.1650 - 0.1690
TP
0.1760
0.1840
0.1920
SL
0.1590
Buying pressure is intensifying rapidly above the crucial breakout baseline, paving the way for a sharp acceleration toward upper liquidity zones.
#OKXOrbitTopics
Let's go $ARB
#OKXOrbitTopics