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Just checked the market, wow, BTC has directly dropped below 80,000, ETH fell to around 2,300, OKB, DOGE, and SOL are all plunging, even the stock tokens of SNDK and MU are falling.
In the past 24 hours, 185,000 people were liquidated, totaling $982 million, with over 90% being long positions. A day of bloodbath for the bulls.
Why is everything falling?
The root cause is last night's US September CPI data. Year-over-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Once the data was released, the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in October instantly surged to nearly 50%. Although it later retreated, the expectation of "higher rates for longer" has reignited.
US stocks crashed first. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, European semiconductor stocks plunged, ASML fell over 5%, SK Hynix dropped over 7%. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted 8%, triggering a circuit breaker.
The crypto market was sold off in tandem but has its own accelerators.
Ethereum contract liquidations reached $286 million, Bitcoin liquidations $197 million, all longs. The long leverage piled up around 80,000-82,000 was triggered by a single needle, and the chain liquidations pushed the price down further.
I currently hold no positions, not because I'm bearish, but because I know that selling at the lowest point during such macro-driven drops is the dumbest move.
Let's chat in the comments, were you buried in this wave or did you dodge it?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $BTC US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year?
CPI and PPI both significantly surpassed market expectations, with the inflation rebound breaking the previous optimistic market forecast of a gradual decline in inflation. The possibility of another Fed rate hike within the year has risen again. This round of inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy prices, but the core CPI also strengthened simultaneously, indicating that inflation stickiness on the service side has not dissipated. Upstream production price pressures will gradually transmit downstream to consumption, which hits the Fed’s most cautious risk: inflation becoming entrenched again. However, whether to raise rates or not will not be decided solely based on these two monthly data points. A rate hike was just implemented in September, and due to policy lag effects, the Fed needs to observe the ongoing impact of prior tightening on employment and demand. Current employment data already shows signs of weakening; aggressive consecutive rate hikes would amplify recession risks. Therefore, the probability of an immediate rate hike in October remains limited, with more focus on the December FOMC meeting. Going forward, it depends on whether October’s inflation and nonfarm payroll data continue to be strong. If inflation remains persistently high, a second rate hike within the year is highly likely; if employment cools rapidly and oil prices fall, the Fed may choose to pause rate hikes and maintain a high-rate wait-and-see stance. For various assets, inflation exceeding expectations will push up long-term US Treasury yields again, suppressing valuations of growth stocks and crypto assets. The current market expectation is in a rapid re-evaluation phase, with volatility significantly increasing. It is not advisable to simply bet on a single direction; continuous tracking of subsequent economic data and official statements is necessary. #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? The CPI data isn't just scary, it's outright shocking. Overall and core inflation are soaring together, the Fed's "energy temp worker" script can't continue, and the market's bet on "October lying flat" has been kicked over.📉
$BTC: As soon as the data came out, 82,000 was lost, and 80,000 turned from an iron bottom into an iron top. ETF funds keep slipping away, macro tightening shrinks buying; old players on-chain are catching it but can't withstand futures shorts swinging the hammer. If 80,000 breaks, 78,000 will be seen.😬
$ETH: The worst tonight, smashed below around 2,400. It's inherently the weakest, ETF bleeding, staking yields can't compete with US Treasuries, institutions won't take it. When Bitcoin softens, it directly kneels. Don't expect it to strengthen independently in the short term.😵
$XAUT: Gold also collapsed, spot gold down nearly 2%. Core inflation pushes up real rates, the dollar and US Treasury yields both peak, interest-free gold can only take the hit.🥶
View: Don't bet on the data, bet on the Fed's trust collapse. Don't chase the first candlestick, wait for the sentiment to play out before making a move.🧠#USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high PPI explodes: September month-on-month 1.3%, the largest monthly increase since March 2022; year-on-year 6.3%, far exceeding the expected 5.3%. Gasoline rose 20.3% in one month, with energy contributing 80% of the increase. CPI 3.7% + PPI 6.3% both exceed expectations — the interest rate meeting on October 27-28 brings rate hikes back to the table. It's only a matter of time before PPI's fire spreads to CPI. BTC just caught a breath above 80,000, but the real test is still ahead.The moment a big bullish candle shoots up, the group chat becomes both silent and noisy. Have you noticed that the higher the price rises, the fewer people dare to admit they missed out? Last night, I saw a screenshot from a big trader's position: BTC 40x full position long, average price just over 80,000, unrealized profit over 1 million U. ETH 25x, over 30,000 coins, earned more than 5 million. HYPE 10x, 86,000 coins, cost 92 each, unrealized profit 230,000. Account net value over 6.6 million, the numbers look so perfect they seem photoshopped. But what I stared at for a long time was the small line below: cumulative funding fee paid, over 900,000 U. This is where the real story gets interesting. Unrealized profit is just on paper, but the funding fee is real money paid out. The first thing you do every morning isn’t checking the market, it’s paying rent to the exchange. The more sideways the market moves, the more this money leaks like an hourglass, bit by bit. What is the market really trading? Not direction, but patience. The bullish logic is clear: BTC holds above 80,000, ETH defends key ranges, hot money is willing to pay a premium for high Beta assets, and new narratives like HYPE still attract attention. As long as the liquidation line isn’t broken, this position set is a money printer. But the risks hide in two places. First, 40x full position means almost zero margin for error; if BTC falls back to 52,000, it’s a wipeout scenario. Second, the fees are a continuous negative feedback; the longer the sideways market lasts, the thinner the unrealized profits get eaten away. Once the market shifts from a one-way trend to oscillation, the first thing to collapse isn’t the price, but the mindset. What I care about more is the crowd psychology. Now the screen is full of people showing off orders, profits, and beliefs, with narrative fatigue and FOMO coexisting. This kind of Last night, the core CPI exceeded expectations, and tonight the PPI exploded again! Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are facing bearish pressure again. The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year; excluding food and energy, it still increased by 0.7%, indicating significant price pressure on the production side. However, retail sales grew 0.8% month-over-month, but the control group excluding gasoline and other items only rose 0.1%, so consumption is not as strong as it appears on the surface. Energy is the main factor, but price pressure is not limited to oil prices. CPI and PPI consecutively exceeding expectations indicate that US inflation pressure is more stubborn than the market thinks. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October only rose from about 33.2% to 33.8%, while the probability of at least one rate hike before the end of the year increased to 66%. Meanwhile, the dollar, 10-year US Treasury yields, and Brent crude oil all retreated intraday, which is not good news for Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounds. Therefore, I remain bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially more cautious on Ethereum. I believe the current support observation range is likely between 79,500 and 80,300.#BTC spot ETF sees net outflows again, can institutional buying rebound? Here we need to distinguish: short-term net outflows ≠ institutions being bearish on BTC long-term; it's more of a tactical reduction driven by the macro environment, not a large-scale liquidation of long-term core holdings. The ETF's existing scale remains large, but new subscriptions are temporarily weaker than redemptions, losing the previous stable off-exchange incremental support. The market rebound will rely more on on-exchange absorption and long-term holders on-chain.
Capital outflows are a somewhat bearish signal for the market. Without continuous ETF subscriptions to support the bottom, the sustainability of the rebound will be discounted. Once the market weakens, volatility is more likely to amplify. However, note that outflows can also be a phase of clearing. After continuous outflows, if redemption scale gradually narrows, that is a leading signal of buying rebound.
Whether it can rebound depends on three core points:
1. Whether inflation data will decline subsequently, if rate cut expectations recover, and if long-term US Treasury yields can turn down;
2. Outflow structure: whether it's large redemptions from top flagship funds or scattered selling from small funds;
3. Whether there is a reappearance of large single-day net inflows forming a trend through sustained subscriptions.
As long as macro interest rate expectations do not improve significantly, it is difficult to quickly return to a state of sustained net inflows in the short term. If large outflows continue, it means institutional risk appetite keeps declining, continuously suppressing BTC's rebound potential; if redemptions gradually converge and positive catalysts emerge, buying inflows may return. $ETH $BTC $SOL #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Regarding $UNI, there's something to mention.
On October 19th, it will launch CME futures. Only 5 days left.
Sounds like institutions have gained a proper channel to buy it, which is quite nice. But experienced traders should have a conditioned reflex when seeing the word "launch"—when did this rally start? Scroll up, the long trendline had been suppressing it for five years, connecting the highs of the previous two bull markets, and it was just recently broken through. My first reaction was, bullish. My second reaction was, those who broke through that line were waiting for exactly this news to land.
Now at 6.87, it has already retraced quite a bit from that position, down nearly 10% in 7 days. It feels like this—good news drives the price up first, then the supply comes out afterward.
I can't say for sure that it will die immediately on the 19th, but historically, when a major positive news is released and volume doesn't keep up, eight out of ten times it will pull back. $UNI #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ ZEC跌近10%，11月5日的主网升级日期还没最终确认。
截至北京时间21时45分，欧易现货约1100美元，24小时成交额约6283万美元，日内低点1073.76美元。Zcash基金会称，NU7已于10月4日在测试网激活。社区时间表把10月20日列为主网最终决策日，届时才决定是否激活并设定高度。
我的判断是，把11月5日当成已确定的催化，容易低估延期风险。升级计划中的25秒出块已在测试网运行，主网仍待决定。今天的跌幅也不能单独证明升级遇阻。
我更关注10月20日的决定。若主网高度按期公布，11月5日的目标才更有把握；若决定推迟，原先按这个日期计算的预期就要重估。
$ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 我觉得不会超A quick explanation about $OKB: Don't rely on official website announcements to believe or not believe in token minting; check if the contract has mint permissions. In this round, OKB directly removed the mint function, fixed the total supply at 21 million, and the on-chain burn address is verifiable. It's not "we promise no minting," but rather "the code simply doesn't have that feature."醒来那一刻，我第一反应不是开心，是有点后怕。空单拿住了，但市场脆弱的地方也暴露得太明显了。 你有没有发现，这波下跌里最疼的其实不是BTC？ 前天空了ETH在2533.85，现在2421；SOL空在108.58，现价104.21。仓位不大，但那种"终于站对边"的爽感很真实。可真正让我在意的，是这轮情绪为什么转得这么快。 先看触发器。美国9月CPI同比3.7%，比预期3.6%高，核心也偏热。数据一出，美债收益率往上走，市场立刻开始担心利率还会更高更久。对加密来说，这不是单一利空，而是把风险偏好重新按了回去。之前大家愿意给山寨和成长叙事溢价，现在先想的是：钱还贵不贵。 - 情绪信号：BTC曾短时冲上84000上方，CPI后跌回82000下方，冲高失败比下跌本身更伤人气。 - 板块信号：ETH和SOL跟跌更顺，说明资金不是在挑币，是在收缩敞口。 - 风险信号：反弹被迅速卖掉，说明追高意愿弱，杠杆多头被动减仓的压力还在。 - 动量信号：空头节奏占优，但这不是趋势确认，更像情绪主导的短窗。 我倾向把这轮理解成：市场在交易"降息预期后移"，而不是交易"加密基本面变坏"。这两者差别很大。前者压缩估值和之前押财报超预期小亏了一点，回头看超预期概率其实挺高的🤏
- 2026Q2营收同比涨13%，净利润同比增9%，表现亮眼
- 亚太、拉美地区营收增速分别达16%、21%，增长动力超足
- 会员扩张、调价还有广告收入提升，这些早就埋好了超预期的信号✨这哥们做空整个AI赛道，最近7天盈利1000万美金
但做多比特币 $BTC ，吃掉了他空单一半的利润
值得注意的是他又开了一个$STRK 多单The domestic market is neutral to slightly bullish, but both indices opened lower, dragged down by the semiconductor sector. SPY is below 770.43; today is a confirmation day—if it closes below and fails to recover, it will break down, with support at 760.28 holding the daily trend unchanged; QQQ is below 734.08, with support at 706.58.
Data: September PPI month-over-month at 1.3% (expected 0.5%), core at 0.7% (expected 0.3%), combined with yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI; retail sales month-over-month at 0.8% (expected 0.3%). The data pushes up rate hike expectations, but U.S. Treasury yields are moving inversely downward.
Sectors: Semiconductors, storage, optical communications, and crypto are pulling back; XLP/XLV and gold are strengthening, Apple and software are holding up, NOW is uniquely strong and can hold until it breaks down. Funds are shifting to defense, overall bearish. Divergence remains, with short covering and rotation; need to watch the strength and sustainability.#十天巨鲸缩水，高杠杆持仓逼近清算线
3657.25 万美元，是这轮账户累计亏损总额，这个数字直观体现高杠杆带来的毁灭性冲击。近七天又继续亏掉 443.56 万美元，当前账户仅剩 27.98 万美元资产，手中持有 2100 枚 ETH 多单，仓位价值 507.44 万美元，开仓均价 2515.81 美元。
该仓位原始设置 25 倍全仓杠杆，账户实际杠杆显示 36.17 倍，当下浮亏 20.89 万美元，累计资金费消耗 136.27 万美元，爆仓价位落在 2397.51 美元，可用保证金已经归零。巨额多单还在扛，账户却几乎没有缓冲资金，十天内体量从巨鲸快速萎缩。
杠杆既能放大收益，也会加速账户消亡。很多人盯着巨鲸动向跟风进场，但合约交易的核心生存逻辑，始终是仓位管控。你当前的挂单和止损点位设置在哪里？
$ETH $BTC $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% to a new high, once again proving the extremely strong demand for AI. The market correction triggered by inflation is purely a pullback to pick up those who missed out.
Core assets like Micron, with capacity shortages extending to 2029, are best bought in batches when prices fall below 900.
Finding reasons when prices rise and excuses when they fall is meaningless; the essence of this tech stock decline is deleveraging.
MU and SNDK rose too fast earlier; their drop is a healthy shakeout of speculative holdings. You can see NBIS, which relies purely on concepts, has fallen sharply, while INTC and the US tech giants backed by solid businesses remain resilient. The competition behind this is about share structure and business strength.
Don't treat memory as a cyclical stock that traps investors anytime. Musk has already made it clear that robots and AI will drive huge demand for memory, and capacity won't catch up until 2029.
MU has steadily returned to 1100 since August, consolidating a lot of old money, which is completely different from the explosive rally earlier this year. Now, opportunities at 880, 860, and 840 must be seized. 通胀反弹，消费有韧性，就业降速，美联储的宽松空间受到压缩。
对美联储：10 月暂停仍是基准情景，但 12 月进一步加息的风险上升。
对美债：短端受政策预期影响，长端还要考虑通胀、财政与期限溢价。
对美股：高估值成长股更容易受到实际利率和融资成本的双重压力。
对黄金：短期受美元和实际收益率影响，长期避险逻辑仍然存在。
对原油：供给端风险决定通胀能否持续。
至于对 BTC、ETH不多说了，乐观一点7万多见吧TSMC’s advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 79% of total wafer revenue. 3nm led with a 33% share, while next-generation 2nm chips already contributed 8%.
#DailyOrbit #TSMC #AI
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The US September PPI exploded, year-on-year at 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%. Month-on-month at 1.3% is more than double the expectation, and core PPI also fully exceeded expectations. Coupled with the previous CPI surge to 3.7%, it's like two consecutive heavy meals; inflation shows no sign of cooling down.
As soon as the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 22% to 51%. Officials now say "not urgent" verbally, but the divergence is obvious. Harker said rates are still not restrictive enough, and inflation mindset is solidifying; Daly and Goolsbee say they are not in a hurry but didn’t rule out action.
The real protagonist is Waller. At 11:30 Beijing time on October 16, he will have a dialogue in Bangkok with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. This is his last public appearance before the October FOMC blackout period. The market is waiting for this one sentence—if he emphasizes inflation is spreading and action is needed, October rate hike expectations will immediately return; if he says to wait and see, the pause expectation will be confirmed.
$BTC is suffocating under the inflation data pressure, dropping from 84,000 all the way below 81,000, down more than 3% in 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations across the market. Rate hike expectations are heating up, US Treasury yields are surging, and zero-yield assets are the first to get hit. Whether the 80,000 level can hold depends on what Waller says tonight.
#USCPIandPPIexceedexpectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? $SNDK
Under pressure right at the open! After 21:30, Sandisk continued to weaken, with multiple emotional resonances triggering sell-offs
After the U.S. stock market officially opened at 21:30 Beijing time, the storage chip leader Sandisk did not show a recovery rally; instead, it experienced a continuous downward trend, with intraday losses expanding, dragging the entire storage sector into a collective pullback.
This round of continuous decline was not caused by a single piece of news but by several layers of pressure combined:
• Asia-Pacific panic transmission: Today, the South Korean stock market faced a "Black Thursday," with the KOSPI plunging intraday triggering a circuit breaker. Samsung and SK Hynix, two major storage giants, plunged sharply, and panic sentiment directly spilled over to the U.S. storage sector, with funds prioritizing reducing positions in related stocks right at the open.
• Inflation data raising rate hike expectations: The previously released U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, causing the market to reprice the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even raising rates. High-valuation tech and chip stocks were suppressed, and storage, as a sector with significant recent gains, became a key target for profit-taking.
• Cycle concerns reemerging: Although short-term storage price sentiment remains positive, funds have begun to speculate on long-term supply and demand, worrying that future capacity releases will weaken the price increase logic. Many short-term funds chose to lock in profits.
• Sector-wide dragging effect: After the open, Micron and Western Digital also fell simultaneously, creating a negative feedback loop of "mutually pushing down prices," with more stop-loss orders emerging as prices fell, amplifying the downward trend.
It is worth mentioning: Currently, there is no sudden major negative announcement from Sandisk; the volatility is driven more by sentiment, sector linkage, and short-term profit-taking, which does not mean a complete fundamental reversal. After the continuous sharp drop, intraday volatility will significantly increase, and short-term trading risks are high.
$SNDK #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 is indeed very strong, but this financial report should not be simply interpreted as "AI chips continue to skyrocket mindlessly." More accurately, it proves that AI computing power demand remains robust, advanced process orders are full, but the market has started to evaluate its valuation and subsequent capacity expansion returns with more stringent standards.
For investors, this financial report is more like a "confirmation that the boom is still ongoing" rather than a signal to "mindlessly chase the highs." In the short term, the stock price may be affected by US stock market sentiment, semiconductor sector fluctuations, and valuation digestion; in the medium to long term, it still depends on capacity, gross margin, and the realization of AI demand.#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Major macroeconomic bearish news has arrived
$BTC is going to crash!
First, let's explain what PPI and CPI are
PPI is the Producer Price Index, representing the cost of goods purchased by factories and enterprises for production (producer-side inflation), while CPI is the Consumer Price Index, reflecting the prices consumers pay for goods. PPI leads CPI: when factory costs rise significantly, they are likely to pass the increased costs onto retail prices, driving CPI higher.
This time, the core PPI data for September:
- PPI month-over-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%, significantly above expectations
- Core PPI month-over-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%, also off the charts
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
Key point: It's not just oil and energy prices rising; the core PPI excluding food and energy also surged sharply.
PPI has risen for two consecutive months, with September data hitting a recent high, indicating a clear rebound in producer-side inflationary pressure.
Implications for the market
1. CPI already exceeded expectations the previous night, and now PPI has exploded; inflation is not a temporary rebound, upstream and downstream inflation are both rising.
2. The market worries: rising corporate costs will be passed on to consumers, making it likely that CPI will remain high.
3. Market inference: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be further delayed, and the possibility of another rate hike remains.
👉 Major macroeconomic bearish news!AI吃存储的故事讲了快一年了，上周曝出来三星业绩可能不及预期后，这周存储股集体回调。
还好美光$MU 有HBM的硬筹码撑着，这周只跌了5%；海力士$SKHYNIX 因为有获利了结盘，这周跌了10%；闪迪$SNDK 就惨了，纯靠NAND的故事，资金一慌砸下来近20%。
1. 美光是最抗跌的。HBM严重短缺、2027 产能锁死 75% 以上，所以机构目标价一路往上抬。短期压着股价只是因为中国台湾工厂罢工这个供给隐患。
2. 闪迪最惨，一周跌了18%。因为它是纯做NAND的，市场在给NAND挤泡沫，甚至在讲周期见顶。它自然是跌最多。上次财报的毛利率84.6%还是挺好的、前瞻PE才7.5 倍，就看它29号的财报能不能给力点了。
3. 海力士的RSI 27，说明股价是被获利盘砸下来的。还好它HBM4已经供货英伟达，而且份额将近 58%，所以大家对它挺有信心，没有恐慌抛售。而且它PE才3.1倍，很便宜。
至于大家买哪只股，就看哪只股能最先拿到利好了：MU要解决罢工问题；闪迪要在财报里给出超预期的业绩；海力士要获利盘停售。#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ PPI实际数据：远超预期的“第二只靴子”
指标 实际值 预期值 前值（修正后） 偏离幅度
PPI同比 6.3% 5.3% 5.6% +1.0个百分点
PPI环比 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% +0.7个百分点
核心PPI环比 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% +0.4个百分点
核心PPI同比 5.0% 4.4% 4.8% +0.6个百分点
核心PPI环比0.7%——是预期的两倍以上，远超我之前判断的“0.4%鹰派分水岭”。 这不是“通胀仍集中于能源”的叙事，而是通胀正在从能源向核心领域全面扩散的确凿证据。
PPI环比1.3%是2022年以来最猛烈的单月涨幅，意味着生产端的价格压力不仅没有缓解，反而在加速恶化。$BTC $ETH $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Is this pullback in AI computing power leaders really the start of a major drop?
Today's opening in the US stock market is quite interesting, showing a complete contrast. The Dow surged to 51922 points, up 0.58%, while the Nasdaq was hammered down 1.31%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.47%.
Chip stocks took a collective hit: $AMD plummeted 5.4%, $INTC dropped 4.6%, and $NVDA also pulled back 2.71%. Chinese concept stocks $BABA and $BIDU also saw slight pullbacks around 1.7%.
In my view, this is not a fundamental problem with computing power but a typical case of profit-taking and capital rotation between sectors.
Recently, tech stock valuations were pushed too high, combined with extended expectations of interest rate cuts. High-valuation stocks are especially sensitive to rates, so capital naturally flowed toward traditional industrial stocks for safety.
Additionally, people are starting to do the math: major companies have spent hundreds of billions buying chips, but how much actual return on investment is there? This anxiety about ROI is directly reflected in valuation discounts.
Looking ahead, NVDA and AMD may continue to experience short-term volatility as bubbles are squeezed and support levels tested. But as long as the giants don’t cut capital expenditures on AI, the fundamentals of AI hardware remain intact. Squeezing the high-level bubble actually provides a safer observation range for those optimistic about the long-term trend.
DYOR A smaller drop does not mean it can hold up
$BTC dropped 3% in one day, 2% in one week, but still has a 7% gain over one month.
Newcomers to the circle tend to see these three numbers as the same thing.
How this number is calculated: the starting points of the three time periods are different.
People who bought a month ago are still making a profit, while those who bought a week ago are already at a loss.
For the same candlestick, the feelings of these two groups are completely opposite.
Common misinterpretation: a smaller drop only means fewer sellers.
It does not mean someone is buying, nor does it mean there is a bottom below.
$ETH dropped 5.6% in one day, $SOL dropped nearly 7% in one week, the same principle applies.
The integers 80,000 and 100 themselves do not generate any buying pressure.
The price stops there because the orders just happen to pile up at that point.
Whether it stops and continues down or stops and pushes up are two different things.
#StandardChartered opens BTC and ETH trading, bank expands crypto business
#$BTC $ETH 这锅高汤熬得太浓了——台积电第三季度营收1.49万亿新台币，同比飙升50.9%，净利润7631亿新台币，同比暴涨68.7%，直接把历史记录按在灶台上刷新，连最挑剔的食客都挑不出毛病。
你想想，2纳米工艺才刚上桌，就占了晶圆收入的8%，这是什么概念？这是我刚往汤里撒的第一撮松露盐，香气还没完全散开呢。而7纳米以下的先进制程合计贡献79%——这才是真正的主菜，和牛、帝王蟹、黑松露全部码齐了，整桌硬菜撑起了这顿饭的骨架。剩下的成熟制程，就是配菜和摆盘用的香草，点缀而已。
真正的火力来源在哪里？人工智能芯片需求。这道菜的火候完全靠它撑着，灶台温度一直在高位，锅气不散，订单就源源不断。这不是小炒，这是流水席，一桌接一桌，翻台率高得让同行眼红。
现在说市场联动。美股映射标的 $xSKHY 的走势，得看这锅汤的余温能传到多远。台积电这份财报，相当于给整个半导体供应链下了一锅底汤，鲜味会顺着食材一层层渗下去。但别高兴太早——底汤再好，端到散户桌上的那一碗，往往已经被兑过水了。
我一向讲配比。组合里的主流标的，那是你的主菜，火候稳、分量足，能扛住整桌宴席；小市值品种是调料，撒一点提香，撒多了直接毁味；至于杠杆合约——那是特辣辣椒，切的时候手抖一下，整锅汤就废了，肠胃穿孔不是开玩笑的。很多人看财报亮眼，就往锅里猛倒辣椒，最后端上来的不是盛宴，是救护车。
看数据要看门道。营收涨五成、利润涨近七成，说明定价权和产能利用率双双在线，这不是靠打折促销冲量冲出来的，是真功夫。先进制程的高占比意味着议价能力牢牢攥在手里，别人想复制这道菜，连灶台都搭不起来。
但厨房里有个铁律：越是招牌菜，越容易被人盯着偷师。产能扩张、地缘扰动、客户砍单，任何一味调料放错，整道菜的口感都会变。财报是已经出锅的成品，香气扑鼻，但下一锅能不能保持这个水准，取决于灶下的火还稳不稳。
我见过的食客太多，看见红油翻滚就以为整锅都辣，结果捞起来全是豆芽。这轮行情的香气确实浓，但你要分清楚，哪一勺是真材实料的高汤，哪一勺只是浮在表面的油花。#TSMCQ3RecordProfit The numbers on the monitor don't lie. On October 9th, the total blood flow just recovered to 21,130,000, but 24 hours later, 6,540,000 blood units surged out from the wound — all from the same aorta, BlackRock's IBIT. The other eleven funds remained completely still; this is not systemic sepsis, but an acute rupture of a single blood vessel.
But don't rush to conclusions. The real lesion lies on the timeline: from October 7th to 8th, 731 million dollars of blood was lost — that was the major hemorrhage. The small amount of reflux in between was just a brief compensation after vascular spasm, indicating that the perfusion pressure of this heart is extremely unstable and could fibrillate again at any time.
Ethereum's performance is even more alarming: 85.4 million outflow, combined with Bitcoin, a single-day loss of 151 million. This is not the failure of two independent organs, but a sudden drop in cardiac output within the same circulatory system — both ventricles pumping weakly simultaneously. You have to consider that the myocardium itself is the problem, not just a simple lack of blood volume.
Regarding the judgment — "Outflow from a single fund does not equal a comprehensive institutional sell-off" — anatomically, I agree. You can't conclude the entire heart is necrotic just because one coronary artery is narrowed. But as the surgeon, I must remind you: if that vessel happens to be the left anterior descending artery, its occlusion is enough to cause an anterior wall myocardial infarction. IBIT's weight in this circulation is precisely close to that critical vessel. The CPI data is about to be released, which is equivalent to a preoperative angiogram and will tell us whether the stenosis is 30% or 90%.
The decoupling of Bitcoin and Nasdaq is a dangerous signal in hemodynamics. The chambers of a normal heart contract synchronously; once separated beats appear, it means the conduction system is destabilizing. Meanwhile, the widening AI credit spread and SK Hynix's double hit in earnings and stock price reflect increased peripheral vascular resistance — the heart has to work harder to maintain the same output.
As for the hyped US stock Token target, I won't make preoperative predictions. The iron rule on the operating table is: don't look at the medical summary handed by the family, only look at the images from your own angiogram.
The key issue now is not whether the funds will return, but whether irreversible myocardial fibrosis has occurred. If this outflow is just stress-induced tachycardia, stopping medication can restore rhythm on its own; if scar tissue has already formed, then any CPI fluctuation will be the last wire to break the conduction system. I am waiting for the angiogram results, not a placebo. #btcetfoutflowsreturn24-hour rebound? Mainstream coins' short-term funds are still "ebbing" 🌊
Daily net inflow can be misleading; zooming into 4-hour and 8-hour frames, the fund temperature of mainstream coins remains low.
BTC: +$55.51 million in 24 hours, but -$172 million and -$158 million in 4-hour and 8-hour periods respectively; weekly net outflow of $3.313 billion. There is short-term rebound, but mid-term pressure remains. 😬
$ETH: -$99.32 million in 4 hours, -$127 million in 8 hours; no obvious short-term fund replenishment, rebound quality is uncertain. 🤨
$SOL: -$8.92 million in 4 hours, -$13.68 million in 8 hours, +$20.12 million in 24 hours; bulls and bears are not aligned, chasing the rally has low cost-effectiveness. 🚫
$ZEC: -$22.77 million in 8 hours, weekly net outflow of $299 million; weak support, stop-loss not confirmed. ❄️
Overall: short-term remains bearish. But fund outflow does not necessarily mean price must fall; before CPI and PPI releases, focus on the sustainability of fund inflow and key supports. Currently treat it as a corrective rebound, don't rush to call a reversal. 🔍 #USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record high $SNDK multiple negative factors are piling up all at once!
First, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and high interest rates directly kill high-valuation growth stocks. The entire tech sector is being sold off, market sentiment is very poor, and funds are prioritizing reducing positions in storage stocks that had surged earlier.
Second, Elon Musk's tweet continues to have a damaging effect!
He publicly praised Micron for restrained pricing, implicitly criticizing other manufacturers for aggressive price hikes. The market is now extremely worried that if SanDisk continues to raise NAND prices, AI major clients will turn to Micron, spreading panic about peak gross margins.
Third, expectations of breakthroughs in ChangXin Memory's technology continue to suppress the market!
The market is pricing in future DRAM capacity expansion in advance, fearing that global memory supply will increase later, ending the price hike cycle prematurely. Even though current orders are good, funds have already started to anticipate a supply-demand reversal in a few years.
Fourth, a massive amount of profit-taking pressure is building above!
The recent surge was huge, and the 1500 resistance level has been tested several times but not broken. Bulls have long lost confidence; at the slightest negative news, funds rush to exit, and no one is willing to support the price.
Fifth, panic during earnings season.
The market has become very picky, doubting whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. Even if earnings look good, any slightly weak forward guidance will trigger a sharp valuation cut.
Key reminder!
This is not a short-term minor pullback; it is a trend of capital withdrawal.
Don't rush to bottom-fish for a rebound!
Only if U.S. Treasury yields fall and NAND contract prices strengthen again will the sector have a chance to stabilize.
Before clear stabilization signals appear, selling pressure may continue to intensify at any time!So far, it seems that the trend for Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH is bearish! But I believe there will be a small temporary correction, then a continuation of the decline! Last night's Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected, which means that expectations for a rate cut have been curbed, and the risks of a rate hike have returned to be priced into the market. This led to a chain reaction and increased market anxiety about another rate hike. We need to monitor the US dollar, US bond yields, and officials' statements that could change expectations. Amid these major economic factors, if it happens The entire market is frantically searching for a bottom, but institutions remain very calm and show no panic.
Yesterday's ETF fund data reveals the true situation of the market.
$BTC had a net outflow of 31.44 million in one day, with BlackRock and Fidelity concentrating their sell-offs. After a slight accumulation the previous day, the CPI negative news triggered immediate profit-taking; institutions are only probing positions with very strict risk control.
$ETH had only a slight outflow of 51,900, with funds almost stationary. The price dropped to a low of 2315; institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, instead observing to wait for direction.
$SOL is even more representative, with small outflows for eight consecutive days, and selling pressure nearly exhausted. The main force driving the dump now is not ETF institutions but a long squeeze within the market.
Market core: bullish sentiment has not been cleared.
$SOL long-short ratio is 2.68, with a large number of long positions yet to stop loss; the chain liquidation is not over.
This round of decline is a long-killing-long sentiment-driven drop, not an institutional exit.
I remain in cash and watch; in chaotic times, do not call the bottom.
Wait until contract liquidations are complete, selling pressure is exhausted, and the market stabilizes before considering entry.
The above is only personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus 20:30 The data is out, syncing with you all.
Weekly unemployment claims are lower than expected, indicating the labor market is still tight; September PPI year-over-year jumped directly to 6.3%, hotter than expected. In the short term, this is bearish news, no surprises. I also looked at the market; there is absolutely no capital supporting the market, a single sharp drop crushed it, and the bulls didn't even have a chance to react.
This pattern is very familiar, exactly like the CPI day yesterday. Once the data came out, volume dropped, with no support, indicating that market funds have no intention to catch the falling knife at this level.
I judge that the US stock market will likely continue to drift down after opening, with no decent rebound. For tech stocks, I prioritize shorting SNDK; the storage sector has been leading the decline, $MU and $SKHYNIX are following, but $SNDK dropped from 1650 to just over 1300 and still hasn't stopped, each rebound weaker than the last. Shorting it with the trend is more reliable than bottom fishing.
I'm not in a hurry with mainstream coins. For BTC, I still watch the position I mentioned this afternoon; I'll consider buying when it dips to the 79000 to 78000 range. Right now, just above 80000, there's resistance above and no support below, so entering now is just gambling on direction. If it really falls to that range, I'll look at volume and support signs, and buy in batches if there's a bottoming signal, not all at once.
The above is just my personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice
#USCPIandPPIbeatexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year? $ETH $BTC Many people are still waiting for positive news to drive Bitcoin higher, but the external environment has quietly shifted. U.S. inflation data has risen again, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates have increased, the dollar has strengthened, and funds are beginning to withdraw from high-risk assets. The inflow of spot ETF funds that previously drove the rise has clearly slowed, institutional participation is much weaker than before, and the previous surge lacked sustained capital support.
Leverage is heavily stacked in the market now, with a large number of long positions recently liquidated, showing the pressure on bulls holding positions. Even with occasional policy benefits, it is difficult to reverse the major trend of capital outflow. Many people are gambling on a rebound by bottom-fishing, but they are easily trapped by short-term minor pullbacks.
Overall market risk appetite is declining, this round of the downtrend is far from over, and the outlook remains bearish. Do not blindly bottom-fish; entering against the trend carries high risk. Be patient and wait for further declines.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The crypto market surged by $840 billion in three months.
But spot trading volume actually dropped by 14.2%.
Prices rose 40%, but the amount of money traded decreased. This is called a fake rally.
The real risk lies in futures: open interest reached $102.2 billion.
Most of it is leveraged. When the price drops to a certain level, the system automatically sells for you. After selling, the price crashes even lower, triggering more automatic sell-offs.
The last time this number exceeded $100 billion was in May 2025.
After that: forced liquidations of $19 billion, and Bitcoin dropped 14.5% in three days.
This is not a crash countdown.
But on October 28, the day of the Federal Reserve decision, it could ignite.
How much do you still have?$OKB essentially can be increased to 210 billion in the backend because it only circulates on this one platform, and almost no one will withdraw the coins, right? So there's no way to prevent the platform from acting maliciously; after all, it's all just transaction data, so even if they increase the supply by 10 times in the backend, you wouldn't notice.Big Brother Maji's recent portfolio adjustment really signals a shift in the wind.
He used to basically go all-in long, but this time it's different. The total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts: short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH.
A few details:
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84070, currently floating profit around 220,000 U, but funding fees have cost 56,600 U. Position dominant, but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can be painful, so don't just look at the floating profit.
$ETH 25x long, opened at 2541, currently floating loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's still holding longs, either betting on ETH catching up or using it for portfolio hedging. Unfortunately, there was a sharp spike this morning, suspected to be targeting Big Brother Maji's position!
$HYPE is the harshest, 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss of 4.21 million U, but funding fees collected 1.03 million U. These fees help ease the cost a bit, but can't withstand price volatility. Don't think collecting fees means it's stable. So I think this isn't a full bearish stance, more like he's diversifying directions among different coins.
Watch three points going forward: can BTC stabilize, can ETH rise, and can the HYPE short hold up. You can observe smart money's positions, but don't blindly copy. What really matters is why he's positioning this way, not just following because he buys. The market is still falling, but $ZK managed to generate proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks with just one graphics card, with 99% of the proofs completed within 10 seconds, rising about 12% against the trend. Meanwhile, $ARB and $OP, which are also in the L2 track, weakened. But does strong technology necessarily mean it's worth chasing? ZKsync Era's DeFi locked value is only about $15 million, far below ARB and OP. More importantly, the originally planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been activated after the v31 adjustment, so token demand may not necessarily increase. However, the top ten addresses hold nearly 51%, so personally, I think the current state is more like being controlled by major holders. Therefore, I admit that ZK is stronger than its peers in the short term, but I tend to believe it is driven by a combination of technical benefits and trading capital.The story of AI eating into storage has been going on for almost a year. After last week's revelation that Samsung's performance might fall short of expectations, storage stocks collectively pulled back this week.
Fortunately, Micron $MU has the hard chip of HBM supporting it, so it only dropped 5% this week; SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell 10% due to profit-taking; SanDisk $SNDK suffered badly, relying purely on the NAND story, with funds panicking and crashing nearly 20%.
1. Micron is the most resistant to decline. HBM is severely in short supply, with 75%+ of 2027 capacity locked in, so institutional target prices keep rising. The short-term pressure on the stock price is only due to the supply risk from the Taiwan factory strike.
2. SanDisk is the worst off, down 18% in a week. Because it purely does NAND, the market is deflating the NAND bubble and even talking about the cycle peaking. Naturally, it fell the most. The last quarterly gross margin of 84.6% was quite good, and the forward PE is only 7.5 times, so it depends on whether its earnings report on the 29th can be strong.
3. SK Hynix's RSI is 27, indicating the stock price was hammered down by profit-taking. Fortunately, its HBM4 is already supplying NVIDIA, with nearly 58% market share, so people have confidence in it and there is no panic selling. Also, its PE is only 3.1 times, very cheap.
As for which stock to buy, it depends on which one can get good news first: MU needs to resolve the strike issue; SanDisk needs to deliver better-than-expected earnings in the report; SK Hynix needs profit-taking to stop. #Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? $BTC is testing the 80,000 integer level again, continuing to observe
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high
TSMC's Q3 net profit significantly exceeded market consensus, with single-quarter profits reaching a record high. The core driver is the sustained high demand for AI computing power chips, full orders for advanced process technology, with both revenue and profits increasing. Meanwhile, the Q4 revenue guidance has been raised, and the full-year revenue growth target has been lifted, confirming the strong certainty of advanced wafer foundry under the AI capital expenditure cycle, with fundamentals remaining strong. From a trading perspective, the earnings realization is positive, but caution is needed against the short-term pressure of "buying expectations, selling facts." The stock price has partially priced in AI high growth in advance, so after the earnings report, short-term profit-taking fluctuations are likely.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the company remains the world's most advanced wafer foundry with the highest technological barriers. The 2nm process is gradually ramping up, and AI high computing power orders continue to be received, so the growth mainline logic remains intact; however, two major suppressing factors need close monitoring: first, the phased dilution of gross margin caused by the 2nm mass production ramp-up; second, the potential risks from increased capital expenditures due to building factories overseas, geopolitical policy changes, and the subsequent slowdown in AI customer capital expenditure rhythm. These factors may affect long-term profit expectations and valuation levels.TSMC's Q3 earnings far exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell in response, a typical case of "good news priced in."
Behind the impressive earnings report lies a dual nature: on one hand, 2nm process steadily ramps up, advanced process share increases, AI chip demand remains strong, and the short-term fundamentals are impeccable; on the other hand, risks are also prominent, with performance highly tied to a few major AI clients, US factory construction pushing up long-term costs, and geopolitical uncertainties persisting. Short-term benefits have been realized, and the market is beginning to price in long-term risks. Going forward, focus will be on capital expenditures and the sustainability of customer orders. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 美国经济数据集体拿高分，美元和美债收益率却往下走。华尔街看完成绩单，开始怀疑考生是不是靠借钱撑出来的。 9月CPI同比3.7%，PPI同比6.3%，零售销售环比增长0.8%。 数字看起来相当漂亮。 可仔细看，事情就没那么简单。 汽油涨价推高零售金额，剔除部分波动项目的核心消费控制组只增长0.1%。 居民花出去的钱更多，不一定代表买到的东西更多。 更何况，物价上涨与实际收入压力同时存在。 于是市场出现了少见的分歧： 美元指数回落至102.03附近。 10年期美债收益率降至约5.085%。 黄金一度上涨1.3%，至4156美元附近。 BTC却仍然承压，曾跌至80,247美元附近。 这说明资金在重新权衡两件事： 通胀会不会逼迫美联储继续加息，以及高利率会不会反过来伤害经济增长。 🔮 今晚Web3资金观察 BTC｜宏观防守 美元回落没有立即带来加密买盘，先观察80,000美元附近承接与OI变化。 XRP｜机构资金观察 比较XRP/BTC相对强弱，以及稳定币基础设施新闻能否转化为实际成交需求。 LINK｜链上金融基础设施 关注金融机构真实采用情况、成📊 US PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, BTC dropped toward 80,000! But I don't think the entire drop can be blamed on inflation
Tonight, the US September PPI was officially released:
Overall PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year; excluding food, energy, and trade services, the monthly increase still reached 0.5%.
This is indeed a warning sign of inflation.
BTC's 24-hour decline includes trading before the PPI release, so we can't directly say that the entire 2.14% drop was caused by the PPI.
Another piece of evidence comes from ETFs.
On 10/13, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $175.7 million, but on 10/14 it turned into a net outflow of $261.4 million.
Unstable capital demand, combined with inflation possibly affecting interest rate expectations, creates more resistance for the rebound.
Currently bearish, but not enough to confirm that a larger-scale downtrend has started.
If BTC effectively breaks below $80,000 and fails to recover, downside risk will increase.
Conversely, if it reclaims $82,500, a reassessment of the short-term structure will be needed.
Next to track: whether US Treasury yields and spot buying change simultaneously after the PPI release.
Data tells us what happened; the subsequent price and capital reactions help judge if the trend has changed.
Do you think the current $BTC price already reflects inflation risk?
#USCPIandPPIexceedexpectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? Is history always astonishingly similar? The "midterm election curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is OI increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and OI decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price stabilizes afterward and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities.
Historical cycles can only provide clues; capital behavior is the verification signal.
In 2026, do you think Bitcoin's cycle bottom is already near? $BTC $ETH $SOL #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure Two big inflation blows shattered the rate cut fantasy.
① CPI strikes first: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6%, gasoline surged 9.1% in a single month, core CPI 2.6% also beat expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped overnight from 22% to nearly 50%.
② PPI delivers another hit: September PPI year-on-year 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, both crushing expectations (5.3%/0.5%), the strongest since the end of 2022. Upstream price increases are starting to transmit downstream, confirming inflation stickiness.
③ Pain in the crypto world: Bitcoin fell below 81,000, briefly touching 80,200; ETH plunged 6% to around 2,350. Nearly $1 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions—those chasing longs were collectively wiped out by a single data point. Spot ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows.
Remember this chain: Inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → capital withdraws from high-volatility assets. Bitcoin is no longer a "digital gold" safe haven; it is the most elastic link in global interest rate trading.
The real judgment day is the FOMC on October 27-28. Whether the 80,000 level holds is more important than any single bullish candle. Control your hands, don’t be part of the 90%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit a record high #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High TSMC's Q3 earnings report is indeed impressive, with net profit hitting a record high. Many people's first reaction is that the semiconductor industry is about to take off comprehensively. Here's my take: ✅ The positive side: Demand for high-end process orders is very stable, AI chips continue to contribute revenue, gross margin remains at a strong level, and profitability is fully maximized. AI-related wafer orders from customers have not declined, and advanced processes remain TSMC's core business, which is the main reason for the record-high profits. ⚠️ But we should also be objective; it's not without concerns: The recovery pace of mature process demand is slow, relying more on AI advanced processes in the short term; additionally, overseas factory construction costs continue to rise, and geopolitical uncertainties will suppress capital expenditures and profit margins in the long term. Another point is that if AI customers reduce capital expenditures later, it will directly affect future order expectations. Current market divergence: Optimists believe AI computing power demand will continue long-term, TSMC's advanced process barriers are solid, and earnings still have room to grow; cautious parties think the current high earnings are largely priced into the stock, and if AI customer order pace slows, expectations may fall. In summary: This earnings report proves the AI dividend is still being realized, but a peak in earnings does not equal a peak in stock price. Going forward, focus on tracking advanced process order intake, gross margin, and customer capital expenditure guidance. The semiconductor sector is highly volatile; do not blindly chase highs and manage your positions carefully. #TSM #TSMC #Semiconductor #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS market consensus forecast: $0.82~0.83, revenue forecast about $12.86 billion
- Historical pattern: In the last 4 quarters, Netflix's EPS slightly beat expectations twice and missed twice; the beats were mostly just marginally over $0.01, rarely significantly exceeding
- Positive support: Growth in ad subscription business and continuous price increases help raise revenue per user; content amortization growth slows in the second half, supporting profit margins
- Downside risks: Increased content investment and negative exchange rate impact will squeeze profit margins; if new subscriber growth falls short of expectations, it could drag down performance.