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#Meta's Huge AI Investment Enters the Return Verification Period
Will META's earnings report this period exceed expectations?
Last quarter's results: revenue slightly exceeded expectations, but profit and cash flow fell short
✅ Total revenue around $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year. Revenue from advertising and WhatsApp subscriptions increased by 73%
❌ Net profit declined 14% year-over-year, and free cash flow shrank significantly
———————————————————————
Now, about this quarter:
Advertising base: Advantage+ annualized revenue run rate has exceeded $75 billion, with revenue up 27.5% year-over-year compared to last quarter
Revenue has a chance to slightly exceed market expectations, advertising business remains stable but has slowed compared to Q2.
However, there is also bad news:
There is a lawsuit
A one-time settlement fee of about $10 billion with the US bank state attorney general
GAAP net profit will be dragged down by legal settlement costs, but adjusted earnings excluding this one-time expense will likely be close to expectations.
But what really determines the stock price is not revenue and EPS, but capital expenditure + free cash flow.
AI computing power investment is burning cash, Muse AI just launched subscriptions; if it discloses impressive commercialization data, it can offset the high investment
So this time, I say Yes
Revenue will most likely slightly exceed the adjusted EPS expectations
@misaENFP @okxchinese
#OKXUSStockEarningsSeason #OKXExperts #TradeTradFiComeToOKX When the crypto market $BTC and $ETH complete a key bottoming process in the summer of 2026, the core question for market participants is no longer whether the bottom is confirmed, but who will lead the core momentum of the next bull market.
Alana Levin, partner at Variant Investments, observes that a deep consensus is forming among institutional investors: the marginal dollars flowing into the market will concentrate into two major camps — the first being assets anchored by Bitcoin, which inherently carry monetary attributes and value storage functions; the second being protocol projects with real profitability. In contrast, the third category consists of concept projects tied to the AI narrative, which harbor arbitrage traps due to a disconnect between token valuation and equity returns, requiring investors to remain cautious. Furthermore, the resilience shown by quality projects in the last cycle indicates that the crypto market ecosystem is maturing, no longer repeating the destructive drawdowns of over 90% seen in the past. The volatility structure is beginning to align with traditional mature financial markets, with drawdowns converging to a moderate range of 10% to 30%.
#InstitutionalFundsWeaken, WhoWillSeeInflowFirstBTCorETH? To start with a cold splash of water, "having the conditions to form a bottom" is still quite a distance from "bottom confirmation." I am reluctant to treat this news as a bullish pass. CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that exchange $BTC reserves have risen from about 2.67 million coins in early October to about 2.68 million coins, still below January levels, but the supply-demand improvement is uneven.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, exchange supply has not continued to shrink; if the new reserves turn into sellable chips, then demand must absorb this supply—forming a bottom cannot rely solely on sellers holding back. Second, the information mentions that spot demand has turned negative again and whale accumulation is diverging, which means the demand side has not formed a unified support. Interpreting some whale accumulation as a collective bullish sentiment from large funds, I think, is reading a partial action as a consensus across the board.
But bears should not get excited too quickly either; the reserve increase may come from custody adjustments and cannot be directly counted as selling pressure. Bulls could very well be right: if subsequent spot demand continues to turn positive and whale accumulation no longer shows obvious divergence, even if reserves do not immediately decrease, I would reduce my doubts about bottom formation. Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think the negative demand is enough to deny bottom formation, or is the supply still being below January levels more convincing? Please share your reasons. #CoreWeave sells off $3.3 billion, AI financing risk heats up
The boss has something to say
CoreWeave is in trouble again. Since the IPO, the three co-founders have sold a total of $3.3 billion in stock, with $2.4 billion sold this year alone. The company says the sell-off was disclosed as planned, and the three still hold 20% of the shares. But the market is not buying it: the stock price dropped 25% in a single week, and long-term bond yields exceeded 15%.
I believe this is a clear signal that AI financing risk is heating up. There are two reasons. First, founders cashing out at a high level indicates insiders think the valuation is about right. Second, bond yields breaking 15% and CDS soaring show the credit market is repricing AI financing risk. The high-leverage expansion model is losing market trust. Bank of America also warned that the surge in AI investment could repeat historical capital cycles.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If AI infrastructure financing tightens, risk appetite will shrink, and Bitcoin will also face pressure. But Bitcoin’s main conflicts remain CPI, PPI, and U.S. Treasury yields.
Yesterday I took profit on my short at 81,900 at 80,800. My long at 81,800 is still open, with a stop loss at 80,500, first target at 84,000, second target at 86,000. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000, support below at 80,000. Reduce position at targets, keep the rest at breakeven.
CoreWeave’s sell-off is a risk signal for the AI sector, not a directional switch. Don’t chase the rally or panic sell; set your stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitiveZEC at $1160, can you bring yourself to sell?
From 1698 down to 1049, a 25% drop in 30 days, Coinbase delisting, EU ban countdown, the whole network shouting "privacy coins are dead"—but just after everyone cleared out, it bounced back to 1160, with the largest on-chain whale averaging 1179, holding on despite floating losses, liquidation price far below at 838. Is this the last chance to escape, or a golden pit before the NU7 upgrade?
Let's look at the surface first: the bad news is done, but the price hasn't collapsed.
From the high of 1698 at the end of September, it dropped all the way to 1049, nearly halving by 40%. Then?
It pulled back from 1049 to 1160, repeatedly testing around 1165 intraday. RSI at 40-45, neutral to weak, price below the 20-day moving average—all indicators telling you one thing: weak consolidation, no clear direction.
But wait.
Are you sure it can't fall further, does that mean it will rise?
First: Is the NU7 upgrade a lifeline or a death sentence?
On October 20, tomorrow, the Zcash team will decide based on testnet results whether to launch NU7 on mainnet. Target activation date is November 5.
What does NU7 do?
Block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, nearly 3 times faster. 60% of fees go to the public reserve, miners get 40%. The harshest part—old Sprout pool is completely closed, about 22,000 ZEC there can no longer be spent.
In plain language:
If the upgrade succeeds, ZEC's usability and long-term sustainability take a step up. If the upgrade fails or the decision is postponed on the 20th, all bulls betting on "November positive news" will be buried.
There is a giant whale on-chain, averaging 1179, currently at a floating loss, liquidation price 838. What is it betting on? It's betting on NU7 in November.
But the more people bet on good news, the harsher the dump when the good news lands.
Good news fully priced in is bad news—this phrase has never failed in crypto.
Second: The ETF application is real, but Coinbase delisting is also real.
On October 6, the Winklevoss brothers submitted an S-1 for a Zcash spot ETF to the SEC, ticker WINK, fee 0.25%, planning to list on Nasdaq, and pledged to buy up to $100 million in shares.
Sounds exciting, right?
Grayscale's ZEC trust converted to an ETF in August, and 21Shares launched a ZEC ETP in Europe. Institutional channels are opening.
But on the other hand—
In April 2026, Coinbase delisted ZEC. Reason: compliance risk. EU rules starting July 2027 restrict privacy coins, and a major exchange has already stopped offering ZEC to users in India and UAE.
One side is Wall Street knocking, the other is exchanges closing doors.
Third: The technical side has only one question—can it hold?
Support: 1049-1050 (previous low), 1000 (psychological level).
Resistance: 1180-1200 (dense short liquidation zone), 1250 (20-day MA), 1300+.
Current price stuck at 1160, neither up nor down.
15-minute and 30-minute funds are flowing out, the 1-hour pump relies on shorts' stop-loss feeding volume, not real buying.
What does this mean?
If 1160 breaks, next stop 1133, then 1049 if broken again.
If 1160 holds, above 1180-1205 there are short sellers' "blood bags," the main force might squeeze shorts using NU7 news.
But short squeeze is a short-term gamble, not a trend reversal. Until the daily structure returns above the moving average, any rebound is a downtrend continuation, not a bottom.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- NU7 target activation November 5, decision on October 20
- Winklevoss ETF application with $100 million support pledge
- Quantum resistance roadmap advancing, privacy narrative long-term
- Whale averaging 1179 holding despite losses, liquidation at 838
Bears:
- Coinbase delisted, EU ban in 2027
- Daily price below 20-day MA, weak structure
- 1160 rebound driven by short stop-loss, not real buying
- From 1698 down to 1160, massive trapped positions
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 1150-1155 to stabilize, try light long positions with stop-loss below 1130. Target 1188-1200, exit half at target. If it can't break 1188, flip to short with stop-loss at 1205, target 1160-1140. Don't chase in the middle at 1160, both sides are risky.
Swing traders:
Wait for the NU7 decision on October 20. If it proceeds and price holds above 1200, consider mid-term positions targeting 1250-1300. If postponed or breaks below 1133, close the page and wait for 1049 or even 1000.
ZEC now is like XMR in 2024—
Everyone says "privacy coins are killed by regulation," but every time regulatory news lands, there's a "bad news fully priced in" rebound.
But the trapped positions falling from the peak, every rebound is their escape window.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #InstitutionalFundsWeakening, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? "Short Covering, Rebound Still Weak"
On Monday morning, the crypto market began to recover after the weekend flash crash. $BTC dipped near 80750 before quickly reclaiming 82000; ETH bottomed around 2360 and then rebounded, climbing back above 2400.
The direct driver of this rebound was short covering. On-chain data shows that the night before, traders placed large short positions on $ETH near 2366. The morning price rebound to 2409 triggered partial liquidations, and the remaining short liquidation price at 2419 is just one step away from the current price. In a low liquidity environment, the short squeeze effect was amplified, becoming a key micro driver in the morning session.
However, the sustainability of the rebound faces challenges. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen continuous outflows recently, the US tech sector remains weak, and overall risk appetite is under pressure. The total market cap still declined about 1.4% over 24 hours, and mainstream coins mostly gained less than 1%, indicating this is more of a technical rebound after overselling rather than a trend reversal. Without incremental buying, whether BTC can hold above the psychological level of $80,000 will be a crucial anchor for short-term sentiment.
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report after going public will be unveiled July 594, yesterday 300, today it bounced more than 6%.
Western Digital completed a full halving in four months.
On July 14, the intraday high was 594.53, on October 18 the low was 300, a drop of 49.5%.
Today before the market opened, it once bounced to 341, up 6.86%.
But it’s still 43% below the July high, and only 13% within the 100-day range.
I think this looks more like short covering, not that someone started to turn bullish.
Look at today’s cross-section.
The biggest gainers are the ones that fell the most: WDC up nearly 7%, SNDK up over 6%, MU up nearly 5%.
The only sector down today is energy, XLE -1.58%, crude oil -2.20%.
And XLE stands at 89% of its 100-day range, the highest among all.
Money isn’t flowing from energy to storage; someone first sold after making enough profit, then bought the ones that fell and no one wanted.
These two things happening on the same day look more like portfolio rebalancing, not a new trend.
The real dividing line is at 371.
That’s the opening price of the big bearish candle on October 15, which closed down 6.13% that day.
If it can’t get back above, today’s candle is just a rebound; if it does, then we can talk about recovery.
I tend to think it won’t get back above; it fell too fast, and the trapped positions above haven’t been fully digested yet.
$WDC
#AfterHalvingAfter CT surged, about $6.38 million was traded continuously for two hours, but the price still hasn't returned above $0.40.
According to OKEx data, the full hour at 15:00 saw about $5.23 million traded, closing at $0.40422; at 16:00 about $3.46 million, closing at $0.38118; at 17:00 about $2.92 million, closing at $0.38740. By 18:22 Beijing time, the spot price was about $0.38135, still up about 20.9% over 24 hours.
I am more focused on the follow-through after the sharp rise. The rebound at 17:00 did not reclaim the 15:00 closing price, and the price then returned near the 16:00 close. Looking only at the full-day gain can easily overlook this volume-driven turnover.
If subsequent full hours close back above $0.40422, I will revise my currently cautious judgment; if it closes below $0.38118 and trading volume continues to expand, we need to watch whether selling pressure after the sharp rise still persists.
$CT Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
On Monday morning, after the crypto market experienced a weekend flash crash, it started a recovery rebound. BTC hit a low near 80750, then bulls quickly took action, pushing it back above 82000; ETH simultaneously found a bottom around 2360 and rebounded, reclaiming the 2400 level again.
The core driver of this rally is short covering forcing a short squeeze. On-chain data shows that some funds heavily shorted ETH at 2366 the night before, and the price surge to 2409 in the morning triggered partial liquidation of short positions, with the remaining short liquidation point at 2419, very close to the current price. Market liquidity is relatively weak, amplifying the short squeeze effect, which became the micro driver of the morning rebound.
However, note that the sustainability of this rebound is still questionable. Macro pressures remain, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, combined with weakness in US tech stocks, overall risk appetite is weak. The total market cap still declined about 1.4% in 24 hours, mainstream coins generally showed small gains, essentially a technical rebound from oversold conditions rather than a trend reversal. Without new incremental buying entering the market, whether the psychological support at 80000 for BTC can hold is the core short-term market sentiment anchor.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH $ETH $ZEC France's 10-year yield jumped past 4.88% as unrest intensified fiscal fears. Italy hit 4.55%. US 10-year yields moved the opposite way, near 5.07%. Bitcoin rose 2.1% in Reuters' European-morning snapshot. This isn't proof crypto is a safe haven. It's a reminder that currency stress, sovereign debt and risk appetite can collide in a single session. The chart to watch: French vs German bond yields. $BTC #CryptoTreasuryDivides #Macro#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 暂时没有起飞迹象I analyzed the relationship between $ETH ETF flows and price action. ETH ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of outflows, a pattern historically associated with 30–40% price declines. If history repeats, ETH could potentially fall toward the $1,900 zone.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins ETFs are still bleeding, but someone is quietly accumulating
U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $549 million last week.
It looks scary, but it's less than half of the $1.22 billion outflow the previous week, so the bleeding is slowing down.
ETH is worse: a cumulative outflow of $955 million in October, the largest monthly outflow this year.
BTC has had outflows for two consecutive weeks, ETH has lost for three consecutive weeks.
Yet the price hasn't collapsed.
BTC fell below 80,000 last week but climbed back to around 82,700 today, holding above the 50-day moving average.
Off-chain data is even more interesting.
Chainalysis says the U.S. became a net importer of BTC for the first time since 2022.
CryptoQuant: Since the end of August, whales have increased holdings by 60,000 BTC, totaling nearly 3 million BTC.
ETFs are being redeemed, but someone is quietly taking the supply.
I think this shows retail and institutions diverging: retail fears rate hikes and redeems ETFs, smart money accumulates on the dip, observing positions without chasing.
This judgment fails if BTC falls back below $80,000 or if weekly ETF outflows expand again to the $1 billion level, then my judgment is void.
Do you trust ETF fund flows or whale wallets?
$BTC $ETH $MSTR
#ETFFundFlows #Bitcoin $DOGE Dogecoin is just waiting for you to rise, come on 🐶 Show some strength with a deep V breakout
doge short cycles of 1 hour, 4 hours, and 12 hours show liquidation amounts of short positions crushing longs, especially in the 1-hour chart where longs barely get liquidated, all the liquidations are on shorts, indicating a short-term surge that wipes out all the shorts lurking at low levels.
But when extended to 24 hours, the situation reverses: 3.835 million in long liquidations far exceeds 749,000 in shorts.
This means: short-term sharp rallies wipe out shorts, but over the whole day, the bulls chasing the rise are the main ones getting harvested.
This is typical for MEME coins like Dogecoin, where a pump lures in longs, and once everyone rushes in, the market often turns downward again. The short-term rebound looks fierce, but don’t get carried away chasing it; this kind of back-and-forth shakeout can easily hurt both sides.🔍 The amount of coins in exchanges has increased again. Is someone preparing to sell, or has a wallet moved? When I review this information, the point I most want to follow up on is this doubt—don’t rush to conclusions yet.
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that BTC exchange reserves have risen from about 2.67 million at the beginning of October to about 2.68 million, but still remain below January levels. He believes Bitcoin has certain conditions for bottoming out, but supply and demand improvements are uneven.
An interesting detail here: reserves no longer decline, meaning we can no longer support the judgment of tightening supply by saying "coins in exchanges are decreasing"; but the increase may also come from custody adjustments, so it cannot be directly equated with selling pressure. The headline also mentions spot demand turning negative and whale accumulation diverging, but this summary does not provide specific data, so I will treat them as clues to be verified.
Here is my speculation: for short-term sentiment on $BTC, this looks more like a cautious signal rather than confirmation of a bottom. If weakening demand is confirmed and the new reserves are indeed available for sale, then the pressure to absorb them is more worrisome; if it’s just custody relocation, judging by reserves alone can easily lead to misinterpretation.
I will continue to monitor the source of new reserves and whether spot demand matches. Do you suspect this is a sell-off preparation or a custody adjustment? Which data would you use to verify? Let’s watch the follow-up together and see whose speculation is closer.Wall Street is once again boosting storage chips, saying that the recent drop in US storage stocks has seriously deviated from fundamentals, valuations have basically been cut to the bone, and AI storage demand is not as bad as the market thinks. They even predict that from 2027 to 2028, the prices, revenue, and profit margins of storage chips can still be maintained at the high levels of a super cycle.
After reading this, I can't help but laugh. Not long ago, the market was crazily hyping AI storage shortages and price hikes, as if trying to price in profits for the next few years all at once. Now that the stocks have dropped, they're telling everyone that the worries were overblown. Wall Street sure switches narratives quickly.
But I do admit one thing: AI data centers do support demand for HBM and high-performance storage, and manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all benefiting from this wave. The problem is, the storage industry has gone through several super cycles before. Every time the market is at its peak, everyone thinks this time it will last longer, but in the end, supply and demand changes are unavoidable.
Especially for stocks like Micron and SanDisk, which were once wildly chased by investors, I remain bearish. Even if profits really stay high in 2027, that doesn't mean today's stock price is cheap. The stock market trades on expectations; even if profit growth drops from 100% to 20%, the company might still be making money, but valuations can still be slashed significantly.
Whether the rebound can hold, whether downstream AI capital expenditure has slowed, and whether storage prices can continue to rise—until these questions are clear, I'd rather keep waiting. #After eight consecutive drops in chip stocks, can AI trading recover? In this round of capital inflow competition, what truly determines the order of inflow is not the small amount of new money from ETFs, but whether the selling pressure from old money has been fully released.
Looking at new money from ETFs and corporate treasuries, they simply can't absorb the cashing out wave from long-term holders; the supply-demand gap is terrifyingly large. The essence of the current decline is that old money from the previous era is frantically distributing, and new money can't hold the market. Who can inflow first? It depends on whose old money finishes exiting first.
For Bitcoin $BTC, the distribution of chips by long-term holders is already nearing the end, and the trend of whales transferring coins to exchanges stopped long ago. Selling pressure is weakening at the margin; old money is no longer dumping, so the foundation naturally stabilizes, and once capital flows back, it can rise immediately.
But for Ethereum $ETH, it's a completely different story. Ethereum's fundamental problem isn't ETF outflows, but the heavy historical baggage. Early ICO whales and early foundation-related addresses hold massive zero-cost chips and are still lining up to move to exchanges. New money coming in to bottom-fish directly runs into these ancient scythes. Bitcoin's bottom is supported by institutions, while Ethereum's bottom is heavily suppressed by old-era scythes.
I used to focus solely on ETF inflows and outflows, but after reviewing, I understood this logic. Don't bet on Ethereum rebounding first; its historical baggage is too heavy. Bitcoin is the one with the cleanest and most confident base to welcome capital inflow first. #InstitutionalFundsWeaken, WhoWillSeeCapitalInflowFirstBTCorETH? In the futures market, I've seen a common misjudgment: seeing a large short position and assuming the trader must have some special insight. Having traded commodities for years, I've developed a habit of first calculating how much reverse volatility the position can withstand before considering the direction.
This time, I monitored Core Trader 11 (0xe31062…4d444) opening a short position of 500 $SNDK with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $676,500. This is an opening position, not a profit already realized. I'm more concerned about their risk budget rather than taking the amount as evidence of bearishness.
Roughly dividing the notional value by leverage, the margin corresponds to about $67,650; if the price rises 1% against the short, the unrealized loss is about $6,765, which is about one-tenth of the estimated margin, not including fees. This shows that although the position looks large, the buffer may not be thick.
Crypto on-chain monitoring differs from traditional futures order book tracking; it can map some positions to specific addresses, but this does not mean seeing the full account. Margin models, additional collateral, and other positions are unknown, so you cannot directly treat a 10% reverse move as an exact liquidation threshold. My judgment is that the focus for this position should be on how the exposure is managed going forward, rather than the size of the short itself.
Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When facing such a 10x short position, do you set risk limits based on total account equity or single position margin, and why?$BTC has rebounded, but can it really sustain this time? Now I think the key is whether it can break through and hold above 83000. If it successfully breaks through and holds, it means this rebound has strength, and we can continue to watch 83800 and 34500 USD.
Now we need to see if this rise is supported by real capital. After the previous adjustment, the market showed some low-level support, but next we still need to look at trading volume, key levels, and ETF capital changes.
Let's first talk about the capital situation: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has been unstable recently. On October 13, there was a net inflow of about 176 million USD, on the 14th a net outflow of about 261 million USD, on the 15th a slight net inflow of about 5.1 million USD, and on the 16th another net outflow of about 82.4 million USD. Especially with BlackRock and Fidelity products seeing capital outflows, it shows institutional buying has not yet formed a sustained and consistent direction. As for today's data, it is not yet available, so the situation is unknown. A good rise is when everyone recognizes the price and buys; now with unclear capital direction, we still cannot blindly be bullish.
Currently, $BTC price is rising and volume is expanding, indicating buying is strengthening; if it is just a rebound on shrinking volume, a pullback after a rise may still occur. $ETH at 2450 USD is a resistance level, the 4-hour K-line shows an upper shadow, so we need to see if it can break through this level and then test 2500, otherwise this level is very risky. #Institutional capital weakening, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? The $BILL project team raised thirty million US dollars, and selling now is all profit.About 400,000 wallets connected to Hyperliquid perpetuals via Phantom and MetaMask have cumulatively lost approximately $280 million.
On the evening of October 19, according to X Hotspot data, Phantom users lost about $100 million and paid around $29.6 million in fees, MetaMask users lost about $74 million, with a 90-day retention rate of only about 1/7, and the platform's daily revenue is about $2 million. CoinGecko spot price for HYPE is about $79.9, up about 1.1% in 24 hours (snapshot around 18:05 Beijing time).
I think the easy access has raised the cost of trial and error, resulting in many losses and few retained users, while the platform still collects fees. This is not just a simple leverage story.
I am watching two things. If retention clearly rises from 1/7, I will lower the entrance friction weight; if the spot price falls below $75 with volume, I will treat this round of entrance bonus as cooling down.
Do you believe this is a one-time friction, or will it drag down HYPE's valuation? I tend to watch retention first, price second.
$HYPE $BTC $ETH
#Hyperliquid #PerpetualContractsBusy at work during the day, no time to look closely; at night, leaning back in my chair scrolling through news, the words "$10 billion" on the screen chased away the little sleepiness I had 🌙. The lending vault already holds this much money—how do the people choosing strategies for this money actually make decisions? That's what keeps me awake.
According to CoinDesk, deposits in crypto lending vaults have exceeded $10 billion, up from $4 billion at the beginning of last year. These vaults are usually managed by Curators who select lending strategies, set risk limits, and collect fees. Annual yields generally range from 3% to 10%, with high-risk strategies reaching 20% or more.
I think the most important signal from this news is that the responsibility of strategy managers should be brought to the forefront. Users hand over strategy selection, saving themselves the operation, but still bear the consequences of those choices; since Curators can set risk limits, whether those limits are clear and whether adjustments are visible directly affect users' judgments.
Regulators focus on collateral and smart contract risks, which also makes me feel that just looking at the yield page is not enough. My guess is, if vaults explain the underlying collateral and strategy constraints more clearly, ordinary users will find it easier to compare products rather than just comparing annualized numbers.
A reminder to myself: if you don’t understand who the money is lent to or what backs it, don’t be tempted by the yield. Who else is still awake at this hour, and what kind of lending vaults are you looking at? Do you first check the collateral list, or do you first look up the Curator’s risk limits? #SpaceXQ3Earnings Is the market underestimating the value of SpaceX?
SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company; with the global expansion of Starlink and the integration of AI as a core part of its operations, the company now has multiple and potential growth engines.
The key question is: Are investors overly focused on short-term volatility, ignoring long-term growth prospects?
What do you think? Is SpaceX's value lower than it deserves at current levels, or has the market already overestimated its future growth?
📈 Are you optimistic? 【2026/10/19 East 8 Zone 16:06】Market reversal! Bitcoin strengthens, soaring today, how to position next? Take a quick look
1. U.S. stock futures opened low and rose high, Bitcoin rose in sync. Last Friday I posted a long position in the 80000-81000 range, now with a profit space of 2000-3000 points;
2. Next, attention should be paid to changes in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Oil price fluctuations relate to U.S. inflation, while changes in Treasury yields determine the direction of risk assets like U.S. stocks and crypto. From my observation, oil prices are unlikely to fall in the short term since no substantial progress has been made in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain high, high inflation is the norm, and rate hike expectations persist. As for Treasury yields, they remain oscillating above 5%. Before breaking below 5%, it is difficult for U.S. stocks and crypto assets to see significant gains. Therefore, for Bitcoin, continue to maintain a wide range of oscillation, avoid being overly bullish. As for shorting, it is not considered at this stage. The FOMC meeting this month is very likely to hold steady;
3. Bitcoin's current resistance is at the daily middle Bollinger band around 83500. Breaking through will accelerate the rise. Today's operation: buy on a pullback near the 4H Bollinger middle band at about 81900. If U.S. stocks come under pressure tonight, add positions if BTC falls near 81000, targeting a rebound to 83500-84000. After breaking through, target 86500 directly.ADA still has a wide audience
There are many discussions in daily posts. Although ADA's trading volume is far behind altcoins like ZEC and NEAR,
I still have to say it once because this is my job, and I must repeat it.
The core issue with ADA remains: during the alternating rebounds, it keeps retreating step by step, continuously hitting new lows, without forming any bullish structure. Therefore, it cannot catch rebounds or bottom-fish. This is the conclusion, especially for the brothers who are going long.
I have already marked the red box.
Additionally, ADA is still suppressed at 0.2235 on the 4H timeframe. During ETH's strong rebound to 2440, ADA still cannot break through 0.2235, which shows we really need to wait and see, rather than bottom-fish and go long.
If you have other questions, leave me a message as soon as possible, and I will definitely reply to everyone.Tonight's review Monday, October 19 First, let's talk about the market BTC fluctuated between 80,700 and 83,000 today, settling around 82,000 in the evening ETH ranged from 2,360 to 2,440, even less lively than BTC The daily rise and fall were small, like a blind date saying "let's wait and see" There is enthusiasm but no commitment The bears haven't been idle either Last night someone opened a short position of 13,830 ETH at 2,366 This morning, when it rebounded to 2,409, part of it was forcibly liquidated The remaining liquidation price is at 2,419 Data comes from on-chain monitoring I haven't verified every trade but this story repeats every month Leverage is like a cheat code when right, but like an ex taking everything when wrong It can take all you have The reasons for price fluctuations are actually not internal to the crypto space Last week, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for 8 consecutive days, the longest since 2008 Jensen Huang said "This too shall pass" Everyone understands the logic but still opens the market app Just like on the third day after a breakup, your best friend says it will get better, yet you still scroll through their social media at 2 a.m. Plus, September CPI was 3.7% The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September Most likely no change on October 28 But there are still talks of rate hikes in December The ceiling over risk assets remains Also, last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $230 million, ETH even more Institutions are also watching closely Another detail: a BTC long stop loss was not triggered After losing, the trader switched to US stock longs Crypto and stocks are now tied together To watch crypto, you have to watch the Nasdaq first 10.19 BTC
Institutional funds are generally weakening, who will see the first return flow?
Recently, crypto ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, with institutions overall contracting, but the fund attributes of the two differ significantly, directly determining the pace of return flow.
Historical patterns also confirm: in each cycle, BTC always bottoms out first and attracts funds back first, while ETH is more elastic but always starts later.
There are three core reasons:
First, the fund attributes differ. BTC is mainly held for long-term allocation, with more buying in batches as prices fall.
ETH has a high proportion of trading and arbitrage funds, which do not return easily when the market is unstable.
Second, liquidity differences are large. BTC market depth far exceeds ETH, so large fund inflows and outflows have less impact; institutions always start building positions with BTC as the base.
Third, consensus priority differs. For traditional institutions entering crypto, BTC is the primary standard allocation, with more mature compliance and narrative.
Operational suggestions:
For stability: prioritize phased allocation of BTC for higher certainty.
For elasticity: wait until BTC stabilizes support and funds flow in continuously, then allocate ETH to capture elastic returns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #InstitutionalFundsWeakenedWhoReturnsFirstBTCvsETH $CORE has been in a Waterloo-style downtrend for four years. Looking at the candlestick chart, calling it a slow decline is an understatement; it's more like a cliff-diving free fall. The peak was at the opening, and it dropped right from the start, continuously falling from high to low. In four years, there hasn't been any decent rebound. It's baffling that some people still try to bottom-fish this coin hoping for a turnaround—I don't know what they're thinking.
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report after going public is about to be revealed. You can't just give away money like that, right? Look at those valuable coins like $ZEC—none of them start low and keep going lower. They have ups and downs but gradually trend upward. This thing has no way back; it's heading straight to zero. If time is supposed to prove everything, then four years should be enough proof 😂$ARB current price 0.1839, down nearly 8% intraday, but the long-short ratio surged from 0.75 to 1.80, and the open interest shrank from 22 million to 17 million tokens. Price is falling, retail investors are flooding in, while the main players are exiting—this is not bottom fishing, it's lining up to catch a falling knife🔪 First, look at the strange data for $ARB: the number of longs has surged, but the total position size has shrunk, indicating that the increase is all small orders, and big money is leaving. Under this structure, any rebound lacks support; the more the price falls, the more crowded the longs become, which actually fuels subsequent liquidations. A true bottom usually accompanies position clearing and leverage resetting to zero, not a long-short ratio rising against the trend. Next, look at $UNI: 7.10, down 4%, long-short ratio 2.07, funding rates occasionally turning negative—the buyers can barely hold their position costs. Above 7.4 lies a large amount of trapped positions; the rebound lacks volume support, and buying more as the price falls is just stubborn holding😮💨 The upper resistance is not digested, so the long structure remains fragile. $NEAR 5.01, long-short ratio 1.47, open interest increasing against the trend. The longs are still holding on hard; without complete despair in this structure, it's hard to say the bottom has appeared🤔 Positions not decreasing and longs not dispersing means downward pressure has not yet been fully released. All three coins point to the same signal: this currently looks more like a long trap. Buying is easy to lose, shorting risks a rebound, and the risk-reward ratio is extremely low. Don't get emotionally attached to the candlesticks; wait for volume contraction and stabilization, and for leveraged positions to be liquidated before considering light probing👀 The only confirmation signal is a real clearing of positions, not longs continuing to add. To pour some cold water first, an increase in crypto lending vault deposits does not equal a reduction in risk. According to CoinDesk, the deposit size of crypto lending vaults has exceeded $10 billion, a significant increase from $4 billion at the beginning of last year. What worries me more is that this growth figure is being interpreted as "the model is already safe and mature," rather than recognizing that the exposure is also expanding.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, these vaults are usually managed by Curators who select strategies, set risk limits, and charge fees. Users save themselves the research effort but do not avoid collateral and smart contract risks; if you only look at yields and hand over risk control, it’s easy to mistake delegated management for a safety net. Second, ordinary strategies typically yield 3% to 10% annually, while high-risk strategies can reach 20% or more. If funds are attracted by high returns, the growth in scale may be accumulating risk and cannot be directly taken as evidence of industry quality improvement. This is my speculation, not a conclusion that has already occurred.
However, I admit that those who are optimistic may also be right: the expansion in scale could indeed reflect real lending demand. If we could see more transparency regarding collateral quality, risk limits, and contract security, and if the vaults can continue to operate normally after stress tests, I would change my view. Don’t get excited too quickly; what I want to see is how risk is managed. Facing this $10 billion, are you long or short? Share your reasons: do you value demand growth more, or are you worried about the risks behind the returns? At the moment of a sudden blood pressure drop, the monitor only alarms; the truly fatal issue is the bleeding point inside the chest cavity that has not yet been exposed. Both buyers and sellers in the Russian diesel trade have been identified, commercial terms are still under negotiation, and delivery will wait until fifteen to twenty days after the contract is signed. The US has suspended some sanctions, opening a window, but the initial contracts and supply volumes have not yet been confirmed, and oil prices have already fallen. This is not a market cardiac arrest, but like a coronary angiogram indicating severe stenosis where the guidewire has not yet passed, yet onlookers have prematurely declared the surgery successful after reperfusion.
The price drop is only a symptom. The lesion lies in the absence of an "executable contract": buyers and sellers identified is only equivalent to completing preoperative blood matching; negotiating commercial terms is the last heparinization before extracorporeal circulation; the fifteen to twenty days delivery is the occlusion time, not the blood flow restoration time. The sanction suspension is more like a temporary vascular clamp; whether the vessel remains patent after release depends on political complications. Unconfirmed supply volume equals unknown stroke volume, so heart function cannot be inferred from blood pressure numbers. An undefined contract timing is a pseudo-variation on the ECG, appearing rhythmic but lacking actual mechanical contraction.
The linkage of $xSNDK is a peripheral perfusion signal; it cannot replace central venous pressure, let alone coronary angiography. The oil price drop may be vasodilation induced by anesthesia or a preemptive blood pressure reduction by the market anticipating "supply restoration soon," but the initial contract volume and actual delivery have yet to materialize. Any rebound could be a brief electrical activity after myocardial stunning. The only vital signs to watch are four: whether the contract is signed, whether loading has occurred, whether delivery volume is fulfilled, and whether the sanction window is reversible. Opening the chest based solely on the price curve is like mistaking pericardial tamponade for hypovolemia; the more fluid you give, the more dangerous it becomes.
This diesel deal is currently just a preoperative discussion, not a sternum already cut open, much less a hemostat clamping the bleeding point. #russiausdieseldealwatch What Anthropic now needs to prove is not just how many people will use AI in the future, but also whether the reserved computing power can be utilized by enough paying demand.
Confidential IPO documents previously seen by Reuters mention that the company has committed at least $518 billion in AI infrastructure spending over the next decade, about 80% of which is non-cancellable or must be paid regardless of actual usage. This is a multi-year commitment and cannot be treated as a one-time cash payment this year, but it is also difficult to consider it as a budget that can be scaled down at any time.
There is a reason for locking in computing power in advance. When demand truly explodes, without resources, you can't serve customers. But on the other hand, if growth is slower than expected, or the computing power required per task decreases faster, the committed costs may not decrease accordingly.
This is also what I pay more attention to when looking at the proposed $60 billion chip financing: having money to arrange equipment only solves the supply problem; afterward, it still depends on customers continuously using and paying for it.
Rapid revenue growth is certainly good, but locking in long-term spending too early makes operations more sensitive to the accuracy of demand forecasts. Customers can use less, but the company may not be able to pay less, and this mismatch needs separate evaluation.
I don't think investing in advance is wrong. What really makes people uneasy is only promoting "leading computing power reserves" without discussing what happens if they are not fully utilized. When reading financing news, besides asking how much money can be borrowed, one should also ask: if the business underperforms expectations, how much less can this money be spent?
#Anthropic plans to raise $60 billion, IPO faces test 最近有讨论称，约600万枚BTC处于"公钥已暴露"的状态，理论上可能面临量子计算的风险。这个老话题为什么又被提起？它会影响价格吗？ 先说新闻。事件的要点是：有研究讨论指出，约600万枚BTC的地址公钥已经暴露（早期P2PK地址、地址复用等），在理论上更容易受到未来量子计算攻击。同期行情：BTC报81,696美元（24小时 +0.43%、近一周 -2.63%）；ETF最新单日净流入1,630万、5日净流出3.241亿、10日净流出7.233亿；恐惧贪婪指数53；美元指数101.84、黄金4,181.1。 再看资金影响。量子风险属于"长期技术风险"，它的定价方式和短期资金完全不同：短期价格由流动性、ETF申赎、杠杆决定；长期风险由技术路线、协议升级、社区共识决定。历史上类似的长期风险（比如扩容争议、算法风险）在真正影响价格之前，通常先在社区讨论中发酵很久，而资金数据往往不会立刻反应。今天的数据也印证了这一点——ETF连续两天小幅净流入，没有出现恐慌性流出。 对BTC的含义：正确的位置是"记录但不交易"。如果量子风险被机构认真定价，你应该先看到ETF持续净流出、长期持有者地址开始移动、以及开Drawing the theoretical pinnacle of $440 billion on the blueprint, while the load-bearing calculations underneath remain blank—this is not design, it's gambling with lives. The internal aggressive scenario leaked from Reuters pushes the US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030, sounding like a super skyscraper piercing the clouds, but the first thing I see is what soil layer the foundation piles of this tower are actually driven into. Goldman Sachs calculates $600 billion in AI investment, about two percent of GDP, and the OECD also nods approvingly that investment and output support growth—but these are all just concrete volumes, not structural calculations.
On the construction site, the most expensive thing is never the rebar, but rework. Corporate-level efficiency improvement reports are like lighting effects in a model room—photogenic, but once you live in it, you realize if the ceiling height feels oppressive. The overall productivity gains of the economy have yet to be proven, so what does this mean? It means all those data centers and computing power parks rising are upper structures built according to renderings, while the bearing layer at the bottom—the real total factor productivity—has not yet completed the geological survey report. Architects fear this situation most: the facade is topped out, but the core tube reinforcement is still under debate.
The market linkage of that token in the US stock market essentially puts a valuation label on this building that has not yet been accepted. Capital markets always sell pre-construction units first, then verify the structure later. $600 billion in annual capital expenditure is no small amount; it’s equivalent to simultaneously starting construction on hundreds of giant complexes next to the existing urban fabric, each requiring future rental cash flows to cover principal and interest. The question returns to the old saying: can productivity gains and new income withstand the dead and live loads of this wave of capital expenditure? My judgment is cold: the current evidence chain only supports point efficiency optimization, not a leap in system-level load-bearing capacity.
What truly determines whether this expansion is a landmark or a stalled project is not the height of the pinnacle announced at the press conference, but the three-layer structure—first, the construction quality and depreciation cycle of computing infrastructure; second, whether the transmission path of enterprise applications permeating the entire economy is continuous; third, whether new income can close the load at each node. If any layer experiences stress concentration, the lateral stiffness of the entire building will distort, and the wind load coefficient in the valuation model must be recalculated. I have seen too many projects die on the "build first, talk later" approach; no matter how grand the blueprint, if the foundation is soft, $44 trillion is just a paper height."Huahua 10.19 Market Analysis"
$BTC earlier hit a low of 80684, then rallied all the way up to 83158, about a 2500-dollar swing. $ETH was even stronger, jumping from 2329 straight to 2446, nearly 5% from the low.
But I, Huahua, think it's still too early to be happy now.
$BTC is already facing resistance around 83000, especially between 83150 and 83500, where without some volume, it's tough to hold. Only if it can firmly hold above 83500 will I look towards 84000. If it gets pushed down again, keep an eye on 82000 first; if that doesn't hold, then 81500. Don't forget, the previous sharp drop was no joke.
There's also an interesting detail~
According to Beijing time today, BTC rose 2.26%, ETH rose 2.72%. But looking at the past 24 hours, the gains are only 0.95% and 0.69% respectively. This shows the previous drop was indeed severe, and today is more of a recovery.
Tonight during the US session, I'll be watching one thing: whether this rebound has follow-up capital to continue.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? $ETH
ETH is also approaching a high point, so why can't it be directly declared as the successor yet?
In the morning market snapshot, the spot price rose about 0.61% in 24 hours, ranging from 2329.04 to 2430.25, with the price positioned at about 94% of the range.
Within the same window, ETH's gain is lower than BTC's; a strong position in the range does not equal stronger relative returns. If funds are truly flowing into ETH, continuous excess returns should be observed even when BTC is sideways, not just when both rise together.
Only if 2430.25 holds firmly and relative performance to BTC continues to improve can the rotation judgment be strengthened; if it falls back below 2329.04, the recovery fails. Business demand and price signals still need to be verified separately; a single rebound cannot prove fee growth.$BTC Bitcoin｜4-hour close above 82580, bulls confirmed ✅
The confirmation condition given on the 17th was fulfilled today: the 4-hour candle closed at 82687 and 82728, both surpassing 82580, no longer a false breakout wick. Current price is around 82900, about 900 points away from the first target of 83838.
Market review: Yesterday, two attempts to break 82580 were rejected, with a high of 82178; the early morning low was 80598, still far from 79724, as long as the pullback doesn't break the structure, it's still intact. Today during the Asian session, volume surged and price pulled up, with a higher quality breakout than yesterday.
Indicators are also aligned: the 2-hour MACD has already returned above the zero line, the 4-hour is still below zero but the fast line is close — a typical corrective rally, momentum reversal halfway through.
🔸 Hold above 82580 on the 4-hour → target 83838, reduce position when reached, as that is a selling pressure zone, not the end point.
🔸 Drop back below 82580 → treat as a false breakout, reduce position, no need to wait until 79724.
🔸 4-hour close below 79724 → structure is truly broken, look down to 76873.
In short: the direction is correct, but the 4-hour is still below zero, this is a rebound, not a reversal. 82580 is the new moving defense line, don't go full position with stop loss at 79724. To pour some cold water first, 2x leverage does not mean this long position is safe. Monitoring shows that Core Trader 04 (0x0ad9e6…c4cbf) opened a long $NBIS position with 579.2 units, nominal value about $100,000. I take a bearish view on the signal value of this trade: it shows someone is willing to bet on a rise, but it does not prove the timing of entry is appropriate.
I have two concerns. First, roughly calculating with 2x leverage, the initial margin is about $50,000; if the price drops 10% against the position, the loss would be about $10,000, which is 20% of the initial margin, so even low leverage can hurt. Second, the data only shows the long opening action, without account equity, other positions, or exit plans, so it’s impossible to judge whether this is a directional bet or a portfolio hedge. Taking it directly as bullish evidence misses part of the logic; if the market weakens, the most uncomfortable might be followers who mistakenly take a large order as confidence and refuse to admit mistakes.
Of course, the other side might be right. I won’t stubbornly be bearish just to be bearish: if the subsequent price stays above this reference price and can recover after a pullback, I will reduce my doubts about the timing of entry. This is my verification condition, not a market that has already happened. Regarding this 2x long position, do you stand long or short? Please clarify your reasons: do you value subsequent price validation more, or wallet position adjustments?I just analyzed the correlation between $ETH ETF capital flows and its price.
At present, ETH ETFs have recorded three consecutive weeks of negative flows. Historically, whenever these ETFs experienced outflows for three weeks or more, ETH’s price dropped by 30% to 40%.
If this pattern repeats, it suggests ETH is on track to decline toward the 1,900 USD zone.$JUP throws an anomaly.
Down 17% in 7 days, then a 2.3% rebound in 24 hours, but volume is only half the usual. After so many days of decline, then a small rebound with volume cut in half.
My interpretation: This means the sellers have temporarily left, not that buyers have entered. Two completely different things. The former is capital, the latter is a halftime break.
Why did it drop these 7 days? Real income, US capital investment, community proposal to use 70% of income for buyback and burn not yet voted on—the story hasn’t broken. But no matter how hot the story is, no one wants to put real money in at this price now. That post asking if 50,000 yuan can reach 3 yuan is still pinned on the square. This volume-shrinking rebound gives a little hope. But at 0.29, volume tells us there aren’t enough players at the table. Let it rebound, but it’s too early to talk about a trend reversal. When volume pushes it above 0.35, then we can talk. $JUP How to distinguish between patient holding and holding through losses? I'll answer with my own forced liquidation this month.
That early morning, I opened a short position. Actually, the direction was right, and shortly after opening, it was in floating profit.
Later, the price started to retrace. I watched helplessly as the floating profit shrank bit by bit, until it disappeared and turned negative. At every level, I kept thinking the same thing: break even and exit, break even and close.
In the end, the system made the decision for me: forced liquidation.
Only when reviewing did I understand that from floating profit to forced liquidation, I had only one thought in mind: break even. I never once asked myself if the bearish logic still held; I only looked at how far the price was from my cost.
This is the boundary.
Patient holding focuses on whether the logic still holds. Holding through losses focuses on whether the cost has been recovered.
When your mind is filled only with the words "break even and close," you are no longer trading; it's purely luck.
I set three objective signals for myself (just my humble opinion):
First, are you thinking about whether the logic still holds, or just about breaking even?
Second, do you still dare to watch the market? Patient people dare to watch; those holding through losses do not.
Third, was your stop loss set before entering the position, or moved later? If moved, that's holding through losses.
My answer is: where your mind is focused, there you are in that state.
Everyone, check yourself: for the positions you hold now, are you thinking about the logic or about breaking even?
#VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC $ETH $SNDK SpaceX has dropped nearly 13% in a week, and not even Starship can save the stock price? This time, the market's concern might not actually be about rockets.
My judgment: Continue to be bullish in the mid-to-long term, but don't chase in the short term; wait for a pullback.
1️⃣ The short-term sell-off is about AI premium. CoreWeave plummeted, and the market is starting to reassess the financing costs of AI infrastructure. SpaceX being dragged down together doesn't mean Starlink's business suddenly got worse.
2️⃣ European competition is real, but not that fast. Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales are jointly pushing Bromo, aiming to complete Europe's space industry chain. But catching up to Starlink's scale and launch efficiency can't be achieved immediately just by throwing money at it.
3️⃣ The real catalyst is Starship. Flight 15 has been postponed to no earlier than November 8. Whether the spacecraft can be recovered will be an important focus; success could strengthen the technology narrative, while failure might continue to impact market sentiment.
📍 Trading plan: Observe and accumulate in batches at 145 / 142 / 139, stop loss at 135, target 158 → 176. Prices are just references; if the pullback isn't in place, keep waiting and don't chase.
I'm not afraid of a SpaceX pullback; what I fear is liking it so much that I can't help but chase the highs.
#SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing will be revealed $SPCX $BTC is stagnant, not stable, but because no one wants to make the first move
$BTC is hovering between 81,600 and 82,000.
The volume keeps shrinking, 84,000 is already last week's story.
What does this price level mean: 80,000 looks stable, but there is no strength either up or down.
There are few orders placed, many are waiting for direction, the longer it stays sideways, the more sudden the move will be.
What will happen next: $ETH at 2,420, falling but not rising.
$ZEC has dropped one-third from the high, a single-day 14% drop like that naturally deters buyers.
$SOL at 104, breaking the 100 mark looks toward 90.
This weekend's silence most likely means the real action will be seen on Monday.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH?
#$BTC $ETH 🚨🚨🚨 I have a very bold prediction: the bottom of the next Bitcoin bear market could be at $120,000!
You read that right.
I'm talking about the bear market bottom, not the bull market top.
This long-term monthly BTC chart shows a very noteworthy historical phenomenon:
📍 2017 bull market peak: about $20,000
📍 2022 bear market bottom: about $15,500
The lowest point of the previous bear market still held near the earlier bull market peak.
And now, Bitcoin has experienced a new major upward cycle.
If BTC continues to set new all-time highs in the future and completes the next long-term bull-bear cycle transition...
Then could the next bear market bottom possibly be not $60,000, nor $80,000, but $120,000?
I think this scenario deserves serious consideration.
Because with spot ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate treasury allocations gradually entering the market, Bitcoin's long-term supply and demand structure is changing.
The previously effective four-year halving cycle does not necessarily mean it will repeat in exactly the same way in the future.
Of course, this is just a long-term scenario projection, not a confirmed bottom prediction. The 2018 bear market also fell significantly below earlier historical highs.
But the core point I want to express is:
Could the prices we are now afraid to buy at become prices that the next bear market will never return to?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Micron plummeted 5.63%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive days! Is the good time for AI storage over?
I actually think that the harshest cuts now may not be due to fundamentals, but valuation.
1️⃣ Earnings haven't collapsed, but stock prices have. TrendForce expects Q4 DRAM contract prices to rise 10%–15%; Micron's Q1 revenue guidance is as high as $61.5 billion. Orders are still there, but the market is starting to worry: how much is this growth really worth?
2️⃣ The real risk lies in financing. CoreWeave plunged about 12% in one day; the AI infrastructure model relying on borrowing to expand is being tested. The higher the interest rates, the more expensive the capital, and the less willing the market is to pay for distant growth.
3️⃣ But Micron is not without worries. Domestic DRAM capacity expansion and future supply increases may affect the memory cycle. Cutting valuations now doesn't mean fundamentals will never deteriorate.
My strategy: short-term bearish, but not chasing the downside.
Reference price levels: 966 / 1002 / 1045 to observe and gradually look for shorting opportunities on rebounds; admit mistake above 1050; target 882 → 856. If the price structure changes, the plan will be void.
Remember: a good company does not equal a good price, and industry prosperity does not mean stock prices only go up without falling. $MU $BTC
Brothers, check out this liquidation data, the market is getting interesting!
In the short cycles of 1 hour, 4 hours, and 12 hours, the liquidation amount of short positions is far greater than that of long positions, indicating that the short-term trend is a pump to shake out shorts, sweeping out those who shorted at low levels.
However, extending to 24 hours, the situation reverses: long position liquidations total 190 million, more than the 150 million of shorts, meaning that throughout the day the overall trend was mainly a dump to harvest longs.
Simply put: the overall daily trend is bearish, but there was a violent short squeeze rebound in the short term.
The market is tugging back and forth—first pumping up to clear shorts, then likely falling back to clean up longs chasing the rally, a typical two-way harvesting volatile market.
Don't blindly chase longs on the short-term rebound; this rally is most likely just a shakeout, not a direct reversal to a big rise. Be careful of being trapped if it falls again after the rebound. ETF outflows reached $550 million again, but there's a detail that changed
Last week (October 12–16), the combined net outflow of US spot BTC and ETH ETFs was about $549 million. BTC accounted for $229 million, marking the second consecutive week of outflows; ETH accounted for $320 million, marking the third consecutive week of outflows. Since October began, ETH ETFs have seen outflows of about $955 million, the highest monthly outflow this year.
But one detail changed: the outflow pace is slowing down. The combined outflow of the two ETFs was $1.22 billion the previous week, while last week it was $549 million, a drop of more than half. Wednesday saw the worst day of the week with BTC ETFs outflowing $260 million in a single day, but Tuesday still recorded a net inflow of $176 million, showing ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Looking at the whole year, both sides still show net inflows: BTC ETFs have netted about +$259 million year-to-date, and ETH ETFs about +$610 million. Whether institutions are exiting or just repositioning is still too early to conclude.
Risk warning: For reference only, not investment advice. 刚扫了一眼4小时图，ETH第二次探底那一下，心里咯噔了一声。 这次的低点，真的能守住吗？ 说实话最近盘面看下来，越来越觉得"难玩"不是错觉。表面上看热点不少，RWA叙事在走、ETF相关工具也在铺，但底下真正能接住抛压的买盘，薄得有点让人不安。ETH这次二探没破前低，4小时级别底背离信号确实出来了，下方支撑开始有反应，短线我个人倾向是底部区域可能差不多了。 但这里有个容易被忽略的落差：图形给的是"止跌信号"，市场交易的却是"预期重定价"。什么意思呢，高利率环境拖得越久，资金对降息的想象就越容易被反复修正，而BTC、ETH杠杆ETF这类工具让仓位调整变得更快更碎，结果是——底背离能带来反弹，却未必能带来趋势。大家看到背离就兴奋，可真正决定节奏的，是上方4小时压力位能不能被有效吃掉。 偏多的路径很清晰：ETH守住二次低点，4小时突破上方压制，情绪修复会先传导到ETH，再带动山寨里那些跌透的品种做一波超跌反弹，风险偏好短暂回暖。但风险也摆在那：如果第二次探底只是缩量假稳，一旦压力位反复冲不过，杠杆工具会放大回落速度，BTC横盘、ETH独木难支，山寨反而跌得更快。这种结构分化，才是现在最磨人的地Duan Yongping calculates Apple's price very straightforwardly.
$AAPL has a market value of about 5 trillion. The US 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.2%. If you buy 5 trillion worth of Treasuries, in 10 years you will get back about 8.36 trillion.
That means Apple needs to earn an additional 3.36 trillion in the next 10 years, with profits growing about 12.6% annually, for buying it to be more worthwhile than buying Treasuries.
He says Apple is a good company, but maintaining this growth rate on such a base is not easy. If you think it can achieve this or even do better, then the current price is not expensive.
Haha, the day before he also said: At this price, I am selling calls on Apple, I like it, but it's hard to take the plunge and buy.
In the future, when you see a good company, you can also first ask: Can its growth outperform risk-free Treasuries? If Congress doesn't grant authority, will the CFTC act alone? Can the "voluntary version" of crypto regulation be implemented?
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate, blocking the CFTC's path to expand crypto regulatory authority.
But in less than three weeks, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig introduced a new framework himself. On October 5, the CFTC issued an ANPRM, launching Reg CTX and Reg CAM, establishing a "three-tier" regulatory system:
Tier 1: Pure spot markets, only anti-fraud enforcement, with other matters handled by state licenses.
Tier 2 (core): Retail platforms with leverage and financing. They can apply for a lightweight federal registration (CAM), with Coinbase and others as potential candidates.
Tier 3: Perpetuals and derivatives, regulated under the traditional DCM framework.
But this framework has a fatal limitation: it is voluntary.
Selig admitted that mandatory registration requires Congressional legislation. Platforms can choose federal registration or continue using state licenses. This means how much market coverage this framework, supported by existing laws, can achieve depends entirely on whether exchanges think the "federal endorsement" is worth the compliance cost.
The public comment period runs until December 14. Is this "voluntary version" of regulation truly beneficial, or just a lot of noise with little substance? What do you think?