Orbit Post Sitemap
Bitcoin spot ETF has continuous net inflows but fails to drive market sentiment. This divergence between macro funds and the crypto market is transmitting through liquidity tightening to small-cap stocks like $SKHYNIX. I judge the current rebound to be more of a correction rather than a reversal. The four-hour chart remains in a downtrend channel, down about 30% from the high, but the one-hour chart is turning upward. The price at 965 has an 8-point floating profit from the intraday low of 927.3, showing a clear short-term long and long-term short pattern. The order book's top ten bid-ask ratio is only 0.22, with overwhelming selling pressure. Negative funding rates indicate crowded shorts, and the 75,000 contracts open interest hides a risk of a short squeeze. A light short position can be tried at a rebound to 981.5, with a stop loss set above 1004.5 and a target at 938.7; if it pulls back to 929.4 and stabilizes, reverse to a short-term long with a stop loss at 916.8 and a target of 958.3. Single position size should not exceed 3% of total capital, and overnight positions should be halved in a negative funding rate environment.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
$SKHYNIX It's almost midnight, brothers. Habitually checking the market before sleep. Tonight's sudden surge probably wiped out many shorts directly. BTC is soaring all the way close to 85,000. Those who missed out can only slap their thighs, but don't rush to open positions late at night. Let's take a look at the backend data.
$BTC current price around 84,500, up over 1.8%. The 4-hour long-short ratio dropped to 1.37 despite the big rise. Normally, a big rally should see more longs, so why did it drop? This indicates that during the rally, a large number of shorts were liquidated, and profitable longs were also closing positions. Open interest is still surging, meaning new big money is entering to take over. The market shows healthy turnover.
Looking at $ETH now at 2,507, finally above 2,500. The 4-hour long-short ratio also dropped to 1.43. Many crowded retail traders were shaken out by this sharp rally, but historically, there's heavy selling pressure above 2,500. Don't blindly chase highs late at night.
Finally, $SOL at 108.4, pushing hard. The 4-hour long-short ratio remains high at 2.38. This position is still too heavy, with retail all long. If BTC pulls back slightly late at night, it could trigger a long squeeze.
Summary: BTC and ETH have cleaned out leverage well, structure is stable, but SOL's risk remains. No need to gamble on the market late at night. Control your hands, stay flat, get a good sleep, and check again tomorrow.
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#Strive大额增持，Strategy回购规模超买币 After the US stock market opened, BTC rose
This BTC upward movement is driven by multiple factors resonating together, not by a single news stimulus. It can be divided into four core layers:
1. Macro sentiment layer: Market risk appetite is warming up, US Treasury yields and rate cut expectations have marginally improved, reducing the holding cost of high-risk assets, and funds are willing to flow back into risk assets.
2. Capital structure layer: Spot ETFs continuously provide institutional buying support, long-term chips have a high degree of lock-up, and the market's spot basic demand is solid, providing a foundational support for the rebound.
3. Short-term derivatives boost: After the price breaks upward out of the range, existing short positions in the market trigger stop-loss liquidations, forming short covering, further pushing up the price, amplifying short-term gains, and driving the market strength.
4. Sector driving effect: After the cryptocurrency market strengthens, liquidity spills over outward, driving rotation in sectors such as privacy coins and public chains. ZEC's recent rise is a typical example of sector funds following the overall market sentiment. The shovel sellers will also have to submit their answers tonight
After the US Eastern market closes tonight, Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) will report earnings for Q1 of fiscal year 2027.
Consensus expectations: EPS $2.18 (+72%), revenue $8.12 billion (+52.4%).
But the stock price doesn't believe it at all: from the high of $347.49 on October 2 to $263.94 on October 16, a 24% drop in two weeks.
Last week, 20 AI and semiconductor giants lost over $1 trillion in market value in one week, with panic saying "AI is all about burning money with borrowed funds, equipment orders will eventually dry up."
However, Deutsche Bank raised its target price against the trend from $320 to $375, optimistic about new DRAM factories driving equipment demand in 2027.
Lam Research has beaten EPS expectations for 8 consecutive quarters; equipment orders are the most solid leading indicator to test the "truth of AI demand."
I think tonight Lam Research is the touchstone for the panic narrative: memory equipment revenue share jumping from 34% to an expected 45.7%, guidance not being lowered, shovels still selling, the crash is about sentiment; otherwise, if orders dry up, that's real, so keep watching and don't chase. Invalidation point: EPS or revenue below expectations, or memory order outlook downgraded, judgment void, market will look directly below $260.
Are you betting on Lam Research beating expectations tonight, or continuing to be hammered? A beats expectations B gets hammered
$LRCX $MU $ASML
#AI #semiconductorETF funds "flash in and out," BTC rebound lacks strength
BTC spot ETF recently experienced a rollercoaster of funds: from October 12 to 16, a net outflow of $228 million, but on the 19th, a sudden net inflow of $527 million, hitting a monthly high, with BlackRock making a significant contribution; however, on the 20th, net inflow quickly shrank to $23.16 million. The surge lasted only one day before fading, indicating institutional buying lacks continuity and the willingness to keep going long is weak.
Price reaction is even more straightforward. On the 19th, ETF inflows exceeded $500 million, yet BTC only oscillated around $82,000 without forming an effective breakout. This shows heavy selling pressure above, with incremental funds absorbed by sell orders. The current rebound mainly comes from passive buying after short liquidations, rather than sustained real-money ETF accumulation, making the rally somewhat hollow.
Currently, with tech giants' earnings season and the Federal Reserve's quiet period coinciding, large funds tend to avoid risk, and no one is willing to push prices up rashly in the short term. In terms of strategy, longs can reduce positions and lock in profits during the rebound without greed for the last bit; those out of the market should hold back, as volume-less rebounds are the easiest traps for bulls.
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
$BTC $ETH $KORU $KORU might rise tonight, a little less before the market opens, more during the session, hey
$SKHY Pretending to let you endure some hardship, not really tiring you out, you’re still in the trillion club.
Q2 2026 revenue 79.3 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year, operating profit 60.5 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year, first half revenue exceeded 100 trillion KRW.
Operating margin 76%, gross margin 83%.
Note, the net profit of 93.9 trillion was significantly boosted by a one-time gain from the sale of Kioxia shares, which should not be considered operating profit.
However, performance was below market expectations (operating profit estimated around 64.2 trillion), ADR fell nearly 6% after hours. "Best ever but below expectations" indicates the market’s expectations were already very high. #"The Democratic Party will not sweep both houses" ≈ The blue wave will at most advance into the House of Representatives, the Senate may not turn blue, don't take 'one party taking all' as the default outcome.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Conclusion first: I lean bearish, choose No (stock fell on the first trading day after the earnings report)
Reasons
1. The market expectations are currently too high; Yes has already reached 80¢, meaning most people assume the earnings report will be very good. The biggest risk in this situation is "fully priced expectations" — even if the data just meets expectations without exceeding them, investors will feel "the good news has already been priced in," and will cash out and run, which is the common phenomenon of "good news fully reflected."
Although deliveries exceeded estimates, they still fell 2.1% year-over-year, achieved by price cuts to boost delivery volume, which will suppress gross margins. The market's core focus now is profit recovery; as long as gross margins fall short of expectations, the stock is prone to crash.
2. Industry pressure remains; the global electric vehicle price war continues, Tesla needs to keep cutting prices to maintain sales volume, which will continuously erode profits. Autonomous driving FSD is a long-term story; short-term earnings reports are unlikely to directly reflect large gains, making it difficult to support further stock price rallies.
$BTC Big Brother Maji's hedging portfolio is now caught in a tug-of-war between profit and loss. The BTC short position is steadily gaining unrealized profit, but the HYPE short position's losses continue to widen, with unrealized losses nearing 3.88 million U.
His strategy is BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short, holding three positions simultaneously to withstand market movements, with profits and losses switching back and forth with the market. The BTC short is currently profitable, the ETH long is slightly underwater, and the biggest drag on the account is the HYPE short. Fortunately, this position only uses 5x leverage, which is somewhat less risky compared to the other two.
Many mistakenly believe that hedging strategies guarantee profits, but hedging only mitigates the impact of sharp one-sided price surges or drops; it is not a foolproof way to preserve capital. HYPE itself is highly volatile, and if the price continues to rise, the losses from this short position could quickly wipe out all the profits earned from the BTC short.
Adding to that, with ETH at 25x leverage and BTC at 40x leverage on full positions, if the market moves in an extreme opposite direction, the risk of forced liquidation can come at any time.
Even large holders with substantial capital cannot withstand severe market volatility. In the futures market, there is no such thing as a permanently safe trading strategy.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SpaceXQ3 revenue surged 161%, AI business becomes the main growth driver SpaceX delivered an earnings report that exceeded expectations: revenue of $14.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 161%; net profit of $4.4 billion, successfully turning a profit. The core highlight is the AI business explosion, with Super Intelligence (SI) revenue reaching $7.6 billion, surpassing the Starlink connectivity business's $5.2 billion; the latter remains an important profit pillar.
My view: SpaceX is transforming from a commercial aerospace company into a comprehensive platform of "Starlink cash flow + AI computing power + rocket technology," with significant growth potential. However, one should not only look at profit growth: AI capital expenditure is huge, and net profit is also affected by non-operating income. Future focus should be on the sustainability of AI revenue, capital return rate, and Starship reuse progress. The fundamentals are strong, but whether the valuation is reasonable still requires separate judgment.The roles of long and short liquidations have just switched. In the past 24 hours, the total long liquidations across the network reached $355 million, surpassing short liquidations at $298 million; and in the recent 4 hours, out of $119 million liquidated, longs accounted directly for $75.94 million.
What changed? A couple of days ago, shorts were being chased down, now the long positions chasing the market are taking over the liquidations. The largest single liquidation was $14.45 million, occurring on Hyperliquid's BTC contract.
Why is this worth noting? After the fuel for short stop-losses burned out, the longs chasing at high levels have become the new source of liquidations. Long liquidations surpassing shorts indicate that the leveraged long positions' defense line is being tested, not protected.
Which observation is more supported? It supports the "liquidation structure switch" rather than a continuation of one-sided squeezes. The dividend from short clearing is receding, and long crowding is beginning to be exposed.
Next, focus on one thing: will the proportion of long liquidations in the 4-hour window continue to expand? If longs keep dominating liquidations, the driving logic of this market cycle will have completely changed protagonists.
Shorts just laid down, and longs are already lining up? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH 合约多单一小时内爆了近281万美元，盘面确实难看。 说白了就是大户借着反弹出货，获利盘集中兑现引发恐慌性抛售，跟基本面短期关系不大。$SNDK $BTC $ETH 底层逻辑其实没变。闪迪要扛NAND价格和竞争压力，美光得证明DRAM和HBM的高利润能持续，海力士则面临HBM竞争加剧和AI资本开支回报的考验。 这波砸盘不是AI故事结束了，而是资金开始重新算账，高增长还能值多少溢价。当前位置还没看到有效企稳信号，想抄底的先别急，等盘面真正稳住再说。#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 #奈飞Q3盈利超预期，广告业务增长放缓 In the past 24 hours, BTC short liquidations reached $70.47 million, accounting for 85.7% of BTC's total liquidations, while long liquidations only amounted to $9.06 million. The largest single liquidation came from Binance BTC/USDT, where a $11.96 million short position was directly wiped out.
What changed? The price pushed above 84,000, liquidating shorts. BTC short liquidations accounted for over 80%, and ETH was even more extreme, with short liquidations making up nearly 94%.
Why is this noteworthy? This is not a bullish attack but rather shorts being too crowded and stop-losses being triggered one by one. Liquidations were concentrated in the last 12 hours, making up 80% of the day's total, indicating the squeeze was impulsive rather than driven by sustained buying.
Which observation is more supported? It supports "short positions being passively cleared" rather than trend confirmation. After shorts are eliminated, if spot and ETFs don't take over, the price is likely to lose direction once the squeeze ends.
Next thing to watch: In the next round of liquidation data, will the proportion of longs start to rise? If long liquidations expand again, it means those chasing longs are becoming the new fuel.
Shorts are cleared, who will be next? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC BTC once touched 84,888, with $327 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, shorts accounting for $250 million — but spot ETF inflows plummeted from $526 million to $23.16 million, shrinking by 95%.
What changed? The price was pulled from 83,233 to 84,888, fueled by short stop-losses, not spot buying. The funding rate was only +0.0052%, and leveraged longs did not chase the rally.
Why is this worth noting? Mid-sized whales' holdings hit a six-month high, but super whales are still net reducing — accumulation hasn't spread to the top tier. The short liquidation intensity above 86,990 is $1.425 billion, while the long liquidation intensity below 79,160 is even higher at $1.947 billion, making longs more crowded.
Which observation is more supported? It favors "high-level turnover after a short squeeze" rather than an incremental trend. Selling pressure remains above 84,800, and the price has yet to break out of the October range.
Next thing to watch: whether ETF inflows can hold steady for a third consecutive day. If they continue to shrink to the tens of millions level, the sustainability of this rally is questionable.
Shorts have been cleared, but spot hasn't taken over. Is 84,800 the end or just a pause? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $NFLX dropped 4.5% intraday on the first day after the earnings report, about 1.6 times the ATR, while the sector average was only -0.1%, indicating a stock-specific movement.
Q3 earnings per share were $0.87, better than the expected $0.82; but Q4 revenue guidance was $13.4 billion, below the market estimate of $13.54 billion.
Analysis: A typical "good earnings, weak guidance" scenario, with a high probability of closing down on the first day.如果把这周ETF数据当成一张情绪温度计，那么BTC和ETH正在量出两种体温。 同样是净流出，为什么市场只对ETH皱眉？ 昨天BTC现货ETF单日净流出约403枚BTC（约3388万美元），但拉长到7天仍是净流入2528枚（约2.12亿美元）；ETH那边单日流出12688枚（约3142万美元），7天累计流出15.5万枚（约3.84亿美元）。数字摆在一起，反差挺刺眼的🍓 我盯着这两组流向看了好一会儿，感觉市场不是在交易"有没有资金"，而是在交易"谁更值得被留下"。 偏多的解读是：BTC的短期赎回更像获利了结和仓位再平衡，7天口径没坏，说明配置盘还在；一旦价格横住，边际买盘回来会很快。偏空的风险则藏在ETH那头，连续失血会削弱反弹时的追价意愿，ETH/BTC走弱又容易把山寨的情绪压回去，形成一种"BTC稳住、其他资产却提不起劲"的钝感。这种钝感比急跌更磨人，因为它让风险偏好慢慢变凉，而不是一次性释放。 我更在意的是节奏：当主流资产里出现明显强弱差，交易者会本能地缩窄战场，先抱紧确定性，再谈弹性。所以短期看，BTC更像情绪锚，ETH更像情绪试纸；前者稳住能托住大盘下限，后者不修复就很难打开向ETH surged to 2515, surpassing 2500 for the first time in a week. In the past 24 hours, $186.8 million worth of short positions across the network were liquidated, accounting for nearly 70% of total liquidations. However, at the same time, ETH spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a total withdrawal of $1.08 billion in October.
What has changed? The price is rising, shorts are being liquidated, but ETF funds are flowing out. The fuel for the rally is short stop-losses, not spot buying.
Why is this worth noting? Long positions account for 68% of accounts, but active trading is skewed towards shorts, indicating a lack of strong willingness to chase longs. The short liquidation zone above $2572 is only $553 million, while the long liquidation zone below $2333 is as high as $1.023 billion — the short stop-loss line is closer, but longs are more crowded.
Which observation is more supported? It favors a "structural repair after short squeeze" rather than an incremental-driven trend. Large whales are rotating from BTC to ETH, while ancient whales are using this liquidity wave to clear nine-year positions. Chips are changing hands, not accumulating.
From now on, focus on one thing: will ETF outflows stop above 2515? If ETFs continue to withdraw while shorts have already capitulated, the sustainability of this rally is questionable.
Shorts have been cleared, spot ETFs are still selling, so who is lying? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $SPCX 两天从 147 拉到 160，真正让市场坐不住的并不是这 8.8% 的涨幅，而是财报里那组几乎不合常理的数字：营收 +161%，AI 业务收入暴涨 830%，马斯克还顺手抛出与 Tesla 合并的构想。🚀 一边是叙事火箭，一边是 Q4 高达 350–400 亿的资本开支——赚来的钱几乎全部回流到算力军备竞赛里。这才是当前最值得盯住的张力：市场在为“AI+航天+马斯克生态”的合并故事定价，却可能低估了这场合并的真实代价。 先看多头逻辑。营收翻倍以上、AI 收入 830% 的增速，说明 $SPCX 已经不是单纯靠发射订单讲故事的标的，而是被算力需求真实拉动的成长资产。与 Tesla 的合并若落地，想象空间在于生态协同与估值重估，分析师 217 的目标价正是建立在这套叙事之上。160 距离前高 176 只差一步，情绪面确实容易被点燃。 但空头视角同样扎实。换股式合并的本质是增发稀释——用股票换股票，老股东的每一股都被摊薄，这不是“信仰充值”，而是一次实打实的股权成本。更关键的是，Q4 350–400 亿的资本开支意味着自由现金流持续承压，利润被算力吞掉，估值锚只能挂在未来而非当$BTC Just now ETH touched around 2510, with a short-term rise appearing even faster than BTC. But after glancing at the position data on both sides, I felt a jolt. The capital status behind the two assets is not in sync. Watching the market can't just focus on the price increase.
BTC's positions have been steadily increasing over the past 4 hours. There is active buying pushing the price near 84,000. ETH's positions, on the other hand, shrank by nearly 3% in these 4 hours. ETH's surge was mainly driven by short covering being passively pushed up; this kind of rally is a false strength hiding real weakness.
Although BTC is moving steadily, it has started to stagnate at the high level. The 15-minute chart just closed with a long upper shadow Pin Bar. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the current price is right against the resistance zone near 85,000. The cumulative rise in these hours has reached 1.6 times the 4-hour ATR, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
In the short term, I tend to expect a pullback. With the 4-hour high resistance overhead, breaking upward requires very large volume support. There are thick sell orders stacked above; if the buying side can't sustain strength, the market will likely turn down for a retracement.
$ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 Capital Flow: Significant ETF Inflows, but Monthly Trend Has Not Fully Turned Positive
ETF — Single-day net inflow of $526.7 million, largest in nearly a month
On October 20, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $526.7 million, the largest single-day amount in nearly a month. The market sentiment was boosted by the rebound in tech stocks and ETF capital inflows. However, the funds are highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, rather than a broad institutional return.
Structural concerns remain: Over the past two weeks, ETFs have had a cumulative net outflow of about $910 million, and the cumulative flow for October so far is still -$615 million. More critically, Bitcoin's price had previously slightly dipped below the average cost line of ETF holders (around $82,300), putting some positions at a floating loss. Returning above 84,500 today means ETF holders are back above the breakeven line — whether this can translate into sustained holding confidence is the key point to watch going forward. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 With the Federal Reserve's October meeting approaching, what exactly is BTC's rebound trading on?
The most interesting aspect of the market right now is the divergence between macro expectations and cryptocurrency price performance.
Previously, the market was worried that the Fed would continue raising rates in October, which could put risk assets under renewed pressure. But as of October 21, the public prediction market's pricing for holding rates steady on October 28 has risen to nearly 90%. In other words, what truly deserves attention now is not just whether rates will be raised or not, but how much of the previously priced-in tightening risk the market has already digested.
BTC recently rebounded from around $81,000 to above $84,000, with US corporate earnings reports and falling oil prices also improving risk appetite. However, this does not mean macro pressures have disappeared: US Treasury yields remain high, and energy prices and inflation expectations could still alter market judgments.
Another easily overlooked issue: if holding rates steady has long been fully priced in by the market, even a meeting without surprises may not continue to push crypto prices higher. What will truly influence the market may be the Fed's statements on the future policy path and how the market reassesses the duration of high interest rates.
Do you think this round of BTC's rebound is more about trading the decline in rate hike risks, or has capital already begun to re-accept the high interest rate environment? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC $ETH Bear Market Countdown: 359 days vs. Historical Shortest 361 days
Hashdex Data: As of September 30, this BTC bear market has lasted 359 days. The previous three bear markets lasted 361 days, 377 days, and 411 days respectively. Short-term holders account for only 16% of the total supply, the lowest since January 2023. 71% of circulating coins are still in profit. If the cycle theory still holds, the darkest tunnel's end may be right underfoot. But the premise is: the $80,000 ETF cost line must not be broken again.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $BTC $ETH BTC spot ETF hides strange signals ⚠️ Single-handed inflow, don't take it as a big positive!
There is a very awkward phenomenon in the US Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow 🤨
On the 19th, the single-day net inflow was $527 million, setting the highest inflow record since September 22 🔥, but this money was almost entirely supported by BlackRock's IBIT alone!
IBIT absorbed $665 million in a single day, Fidelity's FBTC outflowed $83.6 million, Grayscale's GBTC outflowed $54.9 million, and other ETFs were almost flat. Others were withdrawing, only IBIT was crazily taking over.
But just one day later, on the 20th, inflow shrank directly to $23.16 million, a month-on-month plunge of 96% 📉. Although IBIT was still increasing positions, the strength was obviously weak.
Moreover, the monthly trend has not reversed at all ❗ Since October, ETFs have still had a net outflow of $88 million overall, with outflows of $681 million and $229 million in the first two weeks respectively. The large inflow on the 19th was merely a stopgap, not a reversal or recovery.
$BTC's market is even more telling 💡
Funds briefly returned, but BTC is still grinding around 82,000. On the day of the large inflow on the 19th, BTC closed at only 81,875, about 2% lower than the end of September.
Oil prices are stuck at a five-month high, AI quantitative trading continues to disrupt, and risk appetite is doubly suppressed ⛓️. Institutions are bottom-loading, not chasing a rally!
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #美伊谈判仍存分歧，霍尔木兹运输量回升 The US-Iran negotiations have not reached a substantial consensus, and differences between the two sides still exist, but the tanker traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has already rebounded.
The recovery in transport volume indicates that the market is not overly panicked at present, shipping companies have temporarily resumed normal navigation, and the risk premium caused by geopolitical risks is beginning to decline, which puts short-term pressure on oil prices. However, it should be noted that the differences have not disappeared, only temporarily eased; negotiations could stall at any time, and the risk of conflict has not been completely eliminated. This is a phase of risk cooling, not a fundamental resolution.
From the market perspective, crude oil is likely to fluctuate at a high level and is unlikely to experience a unilateral sharp decline. Shipping freight rates will fall somewhat as navigation recovers, but if US-Iran tensions escalate again, shipping through the strait will quickly be impacted.
For equity and crypto markets, the easing of geopolitical risks will slightly improve risk appetite, but the main focus remains on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
Key follow-ups: progress of US-Iran negotiations, strait vessel traffic data, changes in crude oil inventories. $BTC $ETH $SOL After the US stock market opened today, the seesaw logic between SPCX and the three major memory stocks seems to have been reactivated. However, tomorrow SPCX will have 1.3 billion shares unlocked. Although previous unlocks did not cause a significant drop in the stock price, this time is indeed different from before.
First, 1.3 billion compared to 319 million, four times the usual amount.
Second, this round of unlocking is mainly by institutions and VCs, but their probability of selling is lower than that of employees, which is good news.
The biggest difference lies in the price. Previous unlocks were at low price levels with weak selling pressure, but this time it hits the sweet spot. If the selling pressure is heavy, there is a possibility of a drop similar to Intel's post-market surge after earnings in July, followed by two declines.
At this time, the three major memory stocks are at relatively low prices, indicating that the seesaw logic between the two may reverse starting tomorrow.
However, considering political factors, Musk-related stocks are unlikely to fall sharply before the November 3 midterm elections, especially since Tesla will release its earnings report after the market today, which may further announce merger news to boost confidence.
So, looking at this comprehensively, even if the seesaw logic reverses, SPCX may experience box range fluctuations, while the memory stocks may outperform the market later by rebounding strongly based on earnings reports. $SPCX $SNDK #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 ETH just broke above 2500.
The two biggest long buyers haven't broken even yet:
One swapped BTC for 46,000 ETH at an average price of 2513;
One is holding 109,000 long contracts on Hyperliquid at an average price of 2543, with nearly 9x leverage.
The breakout you see is their breakeven line.
$ETH #BTC spot ETF sees continuous net inflows, market reaction limited
? Should $BTC and $ETH be held or sold?
BTC can be held for observation, ETH is recommended to cautiously reduce positions. The funding situation for the two is clearly diverging and should not be treated equally.
BTC: Hold for now, but don’t add more
The apparent "continuous net inflows" are actually structurally fragile. On October 20, $527 million flowed in, with BlackRock IBIT alone contributing $665 million, while Fidelity and Grayscale were outflows. The next day, total inflows sharply dropped to $23.16 million, showing a pulsing pattern. This indicates that existing funds are moving to leading products rather than new buying. Although Citi raised the 12-month target price to $113,000, that is a long-term expectation; short-term prices are still dominated by macro pressure and early holders selling. Holding is fine, but chasing highs is unnecessary.
ETH: Worse signals, consider reducing positions
Ethereum spot ETFs have had net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with $26.13 million outflow on October 20 alone, led by BlackRock ETHA’s $33.01 million outflow. Unlike BTC, which at least has IBIT supporting it, ETH lacks supporting funds. If your cost basis is high, the current rebound is a window to reduce positions; if your position is light, it is also not recommended to add for now.
In short: BTC is propped up by a single product, while ETH funds continue to withdraw. Holding BTC is clearer in signals; ETH should prioritize risk control.THE YIELD TRADE JUST GOT LOUD.
On October 20, Pendle processed $158M in DEX volume—its busiest day since November 2025.
$PENDLE rebounded roughly 15% as onchain yield trading accelerated.
Yet the protocol holds approximately $1.11B in TVL, versus a $13.39B peak in September 2025.
A trading-volume comeback is not the same as a capital comeback.
The next test: sustained deposits, fees and revenue—not another impressive candle.
#PENDLE #DeFiReal-time core data analysis of crypto whales' dynamics shows significant losses on short positions. Who is making money in this market???
BTC current price 84584.20, funding rate 0.0055%. Whale overview: a total of 739 whale accounts, nominal long-short ratio 43.65%.
Long whales
270 whale accounts, current position 1.07B USDT, average entry price 86323.28, unrealized P&L -22.0987 million USDT, profit ratio 81.85%. Most long whales hold positions at low levels, only a small portion chased higher near 86323 and got trapped. The area above 86323 is a concentrated cost pressure zone for long whales.
Short whales
469 whale accounts, current position 2.46B USDT, average entry price 76528.08, unrealized P&L -234 million USDT, profit ratio only 5.33%. Short whales hold larger positions and are deeply trapped. Continued market rise will keep triggering forced liquidations of short positions, further pushing prices up.
Order logic
Short-term difficulty for shorts to unwind is high. If the market continues to surge and hits the dense cost zone of whales' longs at 86323, long funds will concentrate on taking profits and exiting, creating conditions for a significant pullback. Before that, avoid heavy short positions.
Analysis is for market reference only and does not constitute any trading advice #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 兄弟们，别光看新闻标题就激动了。昨天贝莱德IBIT单日净流入6.65亿美元，带动全美比特币ETF净流入5.27亿，创近一个月新高。很多人一看就喊“机构进场，牛回速归”。 但仔细看一眼盘面，BTC至今依然卡在8.2万-8.3万美元区间动弹不得，连8.7万美元的阻力位都摸不到。专家视角看，这背后藏着两个被掩盖的残酷真相： 第一，贝莱德的“净流入”很可能只是账面数字。IBIT很大一部分流入属于“实物转换（in-kind conversion）”，也就是老持有者把手里的现货比特币换成ETF份额来避税。这里面根本没有产生新的美元去买币，只是把旧筹码换了个壳。 第二，卖盘的体量比ETF流入大得多。Galaxy Research分析师明确警告：今年早期持有者累计净抛售了约12.7万枚BTC，而ETF全年净流入折算下来只有3.55亿美元。机构那点买盘，根本填不满早期巨鲸的抛售缺口。 再加上美债收益率死咬5%上方，无风险收益像抽水机一样抽走了流动性。所以盘面上看到的就是：ETF在唱独角戏，价格被死死压住。 其实10月至今，全美比特币ETF#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The market generally expects the October FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged and pause rate hikes, but there are still many potential variables in this meeting.
Core logic: Previous inflation data rebounded, with CPI and PPI exceeding expectations, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to quickly shift to rate cuts while retaining the option to continue raising rates. Recent speeches by Fed officials have been overall hawkish, repeatedly emphasizing that if inflation rebounds again, restarting rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The biggest variables currently focus on three points. First, inflation stickiness. If service-side and energy prices continue to rise, inflation decline will be hindered, leaving room for rate hikes. Second, employment resilience. A persistently strong labor market will support consumption, delay inflation decline, and dispel expectations of rapid rate cuts. Third, long-term U.S. Treasury yields. If Treasury yields rise sharply on their own, the Fed will weigh whether to raise rates again.
On the market front, maintaining a pause in rate hikes is within market expectations, and the positive effect is easily realized, often leading to buying on expectations and selling on the fact; if hawkish statements are released, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields will strengthen, suppressing risk assets such as crypto and the Nasdaq.
Key follow-ups: the dot plot update, Powell's press conference wording, and the description of inflation, with a focus on whether the phrase "further rate hikes" is retained. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A couple of days ago, I just wrote "$DOGE shouldn't be shorted casually," and today I shorted it myself and got stuck.
The reason for shorting it sounds quite ridiculous: seeing it rise for two consecutive days, I thought it was just a meme hype and wanted to bet on a pullback. I didn't pick a good entry point; I just entered when I saw it rising.
Only after entering did I realize where I went wrong. This rally isn't DOGE itself pushing up; it's the entire market's shorts being liquidated one by one—in the past 24 hours, 70% of the liquidated positions were shorts; when BTC broke above 83,300, shorts alone were wiped out by 270 million. The position I shorted was right at the feed inlet of this meat grinder. Now I won't add to the position or average down; averaging down would just turn one mistake into two.
It's not entirely hopeless: DOGE is still below the three moving averages around 0.09, so the structure hasn't changed. But "structure hasn't changed" and "it's about to drop" are two different things—the former is a fact, the latter a wish. I'll set a stop loss at 0.085; if it hits, I'll accept it and exit. To really see if it's right, I have to wait for it to drop below 0.080 and hold steady there—that would mark the end of the short squeeze and then it would be my turn.
The mistake wasn't in the direction, but in the entry point. Shorting at a place where shorts are being liquidated means even if the direction is right, you'll lose first. ETH returns to 2500, but the liquidation map tells me this bull run is just bloated
$ETH currently at 2,513, just back above 2500, and the comment section is buzzing again. But I checked the liquidation distribution, and the more I look, the more off it seems.
Between 2400 and 2450, long liquidation orders are densely packed, all the Achilles' heel of leveraged longs. From 2500 to 2550, there are also short liquidation orders, but much sparser. What's worse is that now the big holders' long positions far outweigh the shorts. What does that mean? The bulls are numerous and strong, but it's all leverage piled up, just bloated.
This kind of structure fears a slow decline the most. Once the price breaks below 2450, the liquidation orders below will trigger like dominoes, bulls trampling each other. That kind of drop makes no sense logically. Conversely, even if it surges past 2550, the volume of short covering is just so-so, not enough to support a trend.
In short, 2500 looks shiny but is actually the most fragile position for bulls. Moving up just feeds bullets to the shorts; moving down is a liquidation frenzy for the bulls.
I'm holding my short, just waiting for it to tear through 2450.
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 The data is laid out plainly, but if you stare at it long enough, you'll find some numbers are like faces with makeup—the real knives are hidden under the table.
52% of $BTC is bullish, but it's a facade propped up by borrowed money.
Above the current price of 82,000, it seems like the bulls are leading, but if you reveal the bottom cards: Coinbase's BTC balance has dropped to a near one-year low, spot buying is withdrawing; meanwhile, Binance's funding rate has soared, with leveraged longs piling up wildly. Spot is bleeding, leverage is holding hard—this 52% isn't confidence, it's the last breath not yet released.
$ETH's 50-50 split is a meat grinder.
The long-short difference is negligible, with dense strong liquidation zones at 2422 and 2447, very close to the current price. The fuel is laid out, just waiting for a needle to ignite the shorts. But on the other side, ETFs are continuously flowing out, whales are shorting, and active selling dominates. This "on-paper balance" is, at its core, longs and shorts holding each other hostage.
$SOL is the most ironic: data is bearish, but shorts have just been buried.
Data shows short dominance, but the market just exploded the shorts with a bullish candle. Alpenglow upgrade combined with ETF benefits makes a stampede inevitable. The "short advantage" you see is just an expired snapshot.
The real referee is the FOMC.
With US Treasury yields high and CPI elevated, these three major coins are bouncing inside BTC's cage, and the key is in the Fed's hands on the 28th. The current divergence is not a trend, but a clearing of the table before a turning point.
Don't be fooled by that "percentage advantage"—when the table is flipped, the truth is who can withstand a single needle. Don't get carried away with leverage. #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
Spot ETF funds continue to flow in, but the coin price has yet to show a strong rally, indicating a clear divergence between the capital flow and the market.
🔥Key Highlights
▫️ETF maintains continuous net inflows, with institutional funds steadily positioning, but buying power is offset by selling pressure
▫️Selling pressure mainly comes from early large whale holdings being realized and profit-taking at high levels, creating significant absorption pressure
▫️Macro factors are the main restraint: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are strengthening, suppressing risk appetite, and incremental off-exchange funds are cautious
▫️Capital structure is fragmented: only a portion of institutions are buying, overall market incremental funds are insufficient, with mainly stock game dynamics
💡Personal View
ETF inflows ≠ immediate surge.
Currently, it is a stock turnover phase, with ETFs taking chips while old holders exit opportunistically. Only when net inflows continue to expand, macro liquidity warms up, and whale selling pressure weakens, can a trend market easily emerge. Simply relying on ETF inflow signals is no longer as reliable as in the early days. META dropped 9% in a week, and with earnings tonight, I’m not betting on the direction.
Yahoo daily chart shows META closed at 762.5 on 10/13 and 694.25 on 10/20.
After the US market closes tonight, the Q3 earnings report will be released. Market expectations are for revenue around $63.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 23.6%.
Options pricing implies a post-earnings move of about ±6.3%, corresponding to a range of 650 to 738.
Bank of America warns that this quarter’s EPS might be lowered by about $10 billion in one-time legal expenses.
My view: Advertising revenue is very likely solid; the real factor determining the stock price is how much AI capital expenditure will be allocated in 2027.
Muse downloads are hot but haven’t turned into revenue yet; once spending ramps up, cash flow will be eaten up first.
The pullback this week before earnings is the market’s early fear of this issue.
Only if it holds above 738 after earnings should it be considered a breakout.
Invalidation: If it falls below 650 and even the lower bound of options can’t hold, don’t bottom-fish.
What do you think? Should we focus on advertising or capital expenditure for META tonight?
$META $NVDA $GOOGL
#USStockEarnings #AI
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 #BTC spot ETF continuous net inflows, limited market reaction BTC spot ETF funds continue to flow in, but the coin price shows weak upward momentum, resulting in a divergence between funds and market performance.
The core reason is that most of the inflows are small, staggered allocations, lacking large institutional one-time buy orders; the buying power is insufficient to quickly push up the price. A large amount of previously trapped positions accumulate above, so even a slight rebound triggers profit-taking sales, continuously consuming the buying power brought by the ETF.
The external macro environment also imposes constraints, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields remaining strong, and overall market risk appetite weak. Coupled with a high short-term holder position volume and a trading habit of cashing out on rebounds, this further weakens the effect of fund-driven price increases.
Simply put, ETF net inflows act as bottom-supporting funds, which can limit deep declines but are insufficient alone to start a new upward trend. The market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation.
Going forward, two signals are key to watch: first, whether the single-day ETF subscription scale can significantly expand, indicating large institutional capital entry; second, whether selling pressure converges and trapped positions are gradually digested. $BTC $ETH $SOL $UNITREE Unitree Technology surges aggressively to 90? RSI/MFI/CMF readings: short-term overheating is digesting, mid-term funds just turned bullish
| Indicator | 1H | 4H | Daily K | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60 | **74.8** (two periods ago 83.3) | 67.9 | 4H severely overbought then pulled back, no death cross |
| MFI | 43-64 fluctuating | **88.7** (extreme 94-95) | 76.5 | Capital flow extremely overheated, now retreating |
| CMF | +0.1 | **+0.3~0.4** | -0.2→**+0.1 turned positive** | Real money inflow, daily positive turn is a mid-term signal |
- Last night it touched **82 then fell back to 76.66 (-6.5%)** — 4H RSI 83 + MFI 95 double extremes are never to be chased, above 82 there is a trapped position at 90.41
- **The key rhythm: Tomorrow 10/22 Ecosystem Conference = typical good news realization day**, A-share two-day limit-up surge + on-chain short squeeze both happened before the conference; 10/29 earnings report with -19.3% net profit excluding non-recurring items and 4.15pct gross margin decline is a clear risk
- If it really shorts, wait for a break below **the 90-100 platform** (after the 30-day breakout at 76.8 was rejected, 72-73 is the previous platform) failing to hold means the event-driven rally is over, returning to the 60 range
Short from 90 down to 60 fits perfectly #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ Bitcoin touched above 84,800, and the short liquidity that had been hanging on the order book for a week was instantly swept away.
Some are shouting that the 90,000 gate is open and starting to chase blindly, while others insist this is a resistance level trap preparing for a top.
However, the total open interest (OI) in contracts across the network surged by over 1 billion dollars within two hours, but spot buying volume did not increase correspondingly.
Is this wave truly a breakout driven by large spot funds, or are market makers orchestrating a short squeeze to trap those chasing longs?
$BTC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 OCC给稳定币发息松绑？别急着狂欢，这是一场逐案审判的开始 10月21日，美国货币监理署（OCC）扔出了GENIUS法案的首个最终规则，2027年1月18日正式生效。市场最关注的一点是：OCC删除了草案中关于第三方稳定币奖励推定违法的条款，改为逐案审查。 这意味着，交易所给稳定币余额发奖励，不再被一刀切地视为违规。但别急着喊利好落地。专家看到的，是三条更冷峻的底线。 第一，发行方直接付息的红线，纹丝未动。GENIUS法案的核心禁令依然有效：稳定币发行方不得仅因用户持有、使用或保留稳定币而直接支付利息或收益。OCC放松的，只是第三方这一层的空间。 第二，没有祖父条款，也没有安全港。现有交易所的奖励计划不会自动获得豁免。OCC明确表示，存量项目同样要接受逐案评估，行业只能通过实际案例去试探监管的边界。 第三，逐案审查的裁量权，本身就是最大的不确定性。OCC保留了solely这个词的解释权：一笔奖励如果至少部分出于其他原因，就可能不落入禁令范围。但这个其他原因如何界定，OCC没有给出清单，只说会基于事实与具体情况判断。 为什么OCC要这么改？因为草案的推定违法条款被批过于粗暴，可能误伤合规安白天韩国那边先崩了一轮，AI数据中心企业Elice上市首日暴跌32%，顺带把海力士、三星这些科技股也拖下水。到了美股盘前，存储板块继续承压。结果美股一开盘，情绪逐渐修复，币安上的SNDK和MU合约都走出了一轮明显的反弹。$SNDK $ETH $BTC 说白了，市场现在纠结的还是AI那笔账。数据中心越建越多，融资规模越来越大，但未来赚的钱到底能不能覆盖这些投入？ 不过这里得区分一下。AI基础设施的投资回报被质疑，不代表存储芯片的需求马上就要崩。现在很多资金有点杯弓蛇影，一听到AI融资出问题，先把整个产业链卖一遍再说。 接下来还是得看企业自己的业绩能不能稳住市场信心。#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 #奈飞Q3盈利超预期，广告业务增长放缓 I think what we really need to focus on
is not whether there will be a rate hike this time
but how the Federal Reserve evaluates future inflation
If it hints at another rate hike in December
Bitcoin and the US stock market could still face pressure
If the stance clearly turns dovish
the market might start trading on easing expectations again
So this meeting
what might decide the short-term market trend is not the interest rate
but the Federal Reserve's attitude toward the future
Brothers, do you think this will be positive news landing
or will the Federal Reserve pour cold water on the market again?"The rebound since last night has been strong, but I will not yet consider it a trend reversal. Liquidity is currently thin, and after sentiment warms up, a small amount of buying can quickly push prices higher. BTC volatility is near the 2026 low, market trading is light, and funds are still waiting for the Federal Reserve decision and the US midterm elections. High Beta assets like XRP and ETH have greater elasticity, rising more sharply during rebounds but also potentially falling deeper during pullbacks.
BTC: $83,651
$80,000 remains the key dividing line between bulls and bears; holding above it is necessary to maintain expectations of a consolidation bottom. The resistance at $87,000 is clear. Glassnode data shows many investors who bought at highs near the end of 2025 are still trapped around $87,700, so a price rebound to this area may face selling pressure from those looking to break even. Without an effective break above $87,000, this can only be seen as a rebound, not a confirmed trend.
ETH: $2,467
ETH/BTC is performing slightly stronger, but the upward foundation is not yet solid. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows of about $1.08 billion since October, marking the largest monthly outflow in 2026, and institutional funds currently lack sustained follow-through. $2,500 is the first key level; failure to hold above it should raise caution for a potential pullback.
$BTC $ETH $XRP #SpaceXQ3RevenueUp161% SPCX will release its Q3 earnings report around 4 AM Beijing time tomorrow morning. The stock price at 147.96 is still about 34% below the June high of 225.64. I am "watching but not chasing."
Yahoo daily chart: On 10/19, it closed at 147.96, down about 9.5% over the past 5 trading days, only about 9% above the IPO price of 135 USD.
The market expects this quarter's revenue to be about 12.87 billion USD, with earnings per share of 0.14 USD. Last quarter, revenue was 7.81 billion USD with a net loss of 541 million USD.
Options price this earnings at about ±7.1%, but in August's earnings, the stock dropped 13.6% the next day.
So don't take the options-implied range as the upper limit.
I think the revenue doubling is probably already priced in; the real direction depends on how much more the AI sector will burn.
Last quarter, AI investment was 15.8 billion USD, double that of Q1. If this number jumps further, the valuation becomes uncertain.
My approach: watch and don't chase before earnings, don't bet on direction near 148, and don't catch falling knives.
After earnings, wait to see if the daily chart holds above 160; if it closes below the IPO price of 135, this rebound logic is invalid.
Where do you stand: betting on Starlink and AI telling a new story, or waiting for the burn numbers to land before deciding? The funding situation for the US Bitcoin spot ETF just showed a rather awkward signal: on the 19th, it poured in $527 million, the highest single-day amount since September 22, but looking closely, almost all the money came from BlackRock's IBIT alone, which absorbed $665 million in one day, actually more than the net inflow of the entire market. To translate, Fidelity's FBTC ran off $83.6 million, Grayscale's GBTC ran off $54.9 million, and other products basically saw no movement, relying solely on IBIT to hold the line. On the 20th, inflows shrank directly to $23.16 million, a 96% drop; IBIT was still buying in, but the intensity was clearly weaker.
More importantly, the monthly trend hasn't reversed. From October until now, Bitcoin ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $88 million, with the first two weeks seeing outflows of $681 million and $229 million respectively. The big inflow on the 19th was just to stop the bleeding, not to recover.
$BTC price is even more honest. ETFs have returned funds, but the price is still hovering around 82,000. On the day of the large ETF inflow on the 19th, BTC closed at only $81,875, about 2% lower than the end of September. Oil prices remain at a five-month high, anxiety over AI trading hasn't dissipated, and risk appetite is being squeezed from both ends. Funds have returned but prices haven't followed, indicating institutions are buying for "allocation," not "chasing the rally." Whether the 82,000 level can hold is more worth watching than how many billions the ETF poured in on a single day. #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 🌙 Watching three directions tonight: robots charging, storage retreating, DOGE drifting along
$UNITREE 76.81, up 6.28, charging the hardest 🤖
The robot theme was triggered by funds tonight, with trading volume reaching 79 million. Tokenized shares follow short-term sentiment and have little to do with primary valuation; they come fast and go fast. Let's see how many days this theme's heat can last.
$SNDK 1,374.9, down 1.90, retreating alone 💀
While the market is up, it remains down. NAND and enterprise SSDs have no issues; the entire storage sector is suppressed by capacity concerns, and funds avoid it during rebounds. The market is first cutting valuations for the sector; we have to wait for earnings reports to reveal real orders before recalculating.
$DOGE 0.08037, up 1.66, drifting with sentiment 🐶
Meme funds flowed back tonight with a burst; supply remains, driven by the community and external figures. When the market pauses, it rests. This kind of momentum has limited sustainability.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Support Levels Below
Support Level Position Significance
First Support 83,500 Near-term defense zone; if broken, the breakout at 84,200 may be invalidated
Core Support 82,700 Short-term key support defined by Wintermute; if held, a narrow consolidation pattern is maintained
Key Defense Line $80,433 Located at the 50-day moving average; if broken, the next target is $76,140
Deep Support 80,000 Next target if $80,433 fails, also a psychological level defended multiple times by bulls
$82,500 is currently the most critical short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A clear break below this level could lead to a retest of the area just above $70,000. $SOL $BTC $SNDK #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 The pause on rate hikes is already priced in at over 80%, so what other variables could there be?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
First, some news 📢: The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, and the pre-meeting quiet period has begun with officials collectively going silent. The market consensus is clear: the probability of holding rates steady and pausing rate hikes is over 80%. No surprises? The variable is inflation: September's CPI year-over-year came in at 3.7%, higher than expected, and PPI is also running hot, so the decision day might not be as stable as the pricing suggests. Waller previously hinted that he does not predict or suggest another rate hike in October—the door isn’t fully closed, but it’s not wide open either.
Looking at the market positions tonight for the three major cryptos:
BTC is around 84,463, with long positions increased by 4.32%
ETH is around 2,497, with longs and shorts evenly split
SOL is around 107.64, with shorts holding a 52.7% advantage
Behind these numbers is a scramble for positions before the "pause" is confirmed: 263 million contracts exploded across the network in 24 hours, with shorts making up 67%, and 80.6 million of the liquidated BTC shorts accounting for 86%. Big money has already bet on the pause, forcing shorts to cover; SOL is the weakest, just having passed the baton, and money is hesitant to bet on the main player.
My view: If the decision really follows through with a pause, the moment of the announcement is likely to see a spike and then a pullback, so don’t chase that second. If the wording carries a hawkish tone, SOL will retrace faster than BTC and ETH. Over 80% is still just a probability, not a guarantee; until CPI cools down, I trust positions, not words.
Do you think this over 80% probability is solid? Could the remaining 10% chance of a rate hike be the biggest black swan of the year? 👇我对 Meta 今晚财报的收入表现仍然偏乐观，不过这次更关心的是 Muse 发布后的实际使用和付费情况。股价此前已经随着 Muse 的热度涨过一轮，广告业务略超预期可能不足以支撑市场对新业务的期待。 九月 Meta 股价上涨约 27%，Muse 的热度是当时受到关注的上涨因素。我理解这轮上涨包含了投资者对新收入来源的期待，因为 Meta 除了用 AI 改善广告效果，也开始有机会直接通过 AI 产品赚钱。不过截至 10 月 20 日股价已经回吐了部分涨幅，所以不能因为九月涨得多就判断今晚会利好出尽。 我比较看好 Muse 面向商家的应用，因为它可以连接 Facebook、Instagram 商业账户和广告账户，帮助商家分析经营情况、制作内容和处理日常运营。Meta 本来就有广告客户，如果这些工具确实能帮客户节省时间、改善生意，就可能同时增加产品付费和广告投放收入。但这条路径最终能带来多少利润还要看商家是否愿意持续使用并付费，以及 Meta 为他们提供服务需要花多少钱。 这里也需要分清产品发布和财报覆盖的时间。Muse 智能体九月才推出，十月发布的 Muse Wonder 模型更不属于三季The prophet event's madmen are either far ahead or directly out; getting second place is impossible!👿
Although Tesla's company consensus released on the 19th is 0.45, exceeding the guess of 0.43; JPMorgan still hasn't expressed a view and remains pessimistic at 0.36, and nearly half of the recent company earnings reports have missed consensus, indicating the NO side is not necessarily doomed to lose.
META has a particularly important piece of news: whether the billion-dollar legal fees will be fully recognized in Q3 at once; if confirmed, the result will only be Gaap Eps <4; even if not confirmed, the expectation is only 6.08, still needing to exceed the expectation by over 4% to reach 6.31.
Looking forward to the results after the US stock market closes. If you see that I am in first place, please reply to me 😄