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The weekend data looks quite interesting. Let's first look at BTC: in the past 24 hours, there was a net capital inflow of 595.75 BTC. Although this is more than a 50% drop compared to the inflow scale of the previous day, it represents a 428.18% increase compared to seven days ago, indicating that the capital foundation remains solid. During the same period, the liquidation amount was only $4.355 million, with a total of 605 liquidation orders. Compared to both the previous day and a week ago, this is a significant reduction, indicating that the current market leverage pressure is light and there is no intense liquidation tug-of-war. However, signals from the external market are more cautious. Morgan Stanley reviewed the recent sharp drop in the US stock market and mentioned that the daily sell-off scale of leveraged ETFs reached $57 billion, the highest level since 2007. The single-day leverage ratio reduction of hedge funds ranked fifth since 2010. Since June, these funds have been continuously shrinking their exposure and are currently underweight in the AI sector, although AI positions still account for 32% of their absolute exposure. Retail investors are also selling off simultaneously, and the correlation between assets is rising. Simply put, BTC has short-term capital support and contract risks have been relatively cleanly released, but the institutional deleveraging sentiment in the US stock market has not yet dissipated.Before $TLT CPI release, what combination does long-term bonds fear the most?
The US October CPI is scheduled to be released on November 10. If inflation is stronger month-on-month and the market demands higher term premiums, long-term bond prices may face pressure simultaneously. If core inflation slows and long-term real yields decline, duration will have more support. Looking only at short-term policy expectation changes can easily overlook the pricing factors specific to long-term bonds.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's Q2 earnings report is likely "good on the surface, tight inside." The market is focused on OpenAI's $89.6 billion fair value, but this quarter's valuation was not re-assessed, so its contribution to profits is zero. Last quarter's impressive 34.9 billion yen profit was actually due to a one-time revaluation of Intel's stake; the Vision Fund's own pre-tax profit dropped sharply to just 5.4 billion yen, a 98.8% year-over-year decline. What's more worth pondering is where the money comes from: the $64.6 billion commitment to OpenAI is mainly supported by bridge loans and pledged Arm shares, with the five-year CDS spread hitting a four-year high. So the real question isn't "Is OpenAI worth it?" but whether Masayoshi Son can afford to wait—the story isn't broken yet, but the substance of the earnings report is indeed thinning.10x long on $ZEC, I'm not in a hurry to assume it's a trend—one long position doesn't prove market sentiment.
I have three rules for trading trends: watch the price action, if the data isn't there, wait for confirmation; watch consensus, one wallet doesn't represent the market; watch risk, if the price moves about 1% against you, the unrealized loss is about 10% of the initial margin, stubbornly holding against the trend is even more passive.
The trend is the best friend, I'd rather wait for direction confirmation. Are you currently using moving averages, volume-price, or swing highs and lows to judge the trend?"A four-word tweet was treated as a financial report preview.
Michael Saylor from Strategy posted "Connecting the dots," along with Bitcoin Tracker information. He has repeated this set of actions many times, and the market directly interprets it as a signal: new accumulation data will be disclosed tomorrow. The value of the post lies not in the content but in the timing.
Looking at the numbers: as of November 8, Strategy holds 849,327 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,446, and a total holding value of approximately $64.44 billion. $64.44 billion paired with an average price close to $75,446 means the book value is almost at cost, with early unrealized gains having been eroded by later price changes.
The mechanism is this: Strategy's buying is not driven by price but by financing rhythm. Convertible bonds, preferred shares, additional issuance—once the money arrives, they buy without waiting for a pullback. The accumulation announcement reflects how much was raised last week, not that they think it’s cheap now.
Another point to consider: 849,327 BTC is already a single observable buy order. If it keeps buying, the market gets used to it; if it stops one day, the market will need to reprice. $BTC’s resilience largely depends on "someone buying regularly every week," while $ETH and $SOL fluctuate with expectations of strength or weakness. 1. BTC 73,200–73,700 is the critical zone where three lines converge: the daily MA200 (73,229) and the weekly MA20/MA30 (73,686/73,585) almost overlap, leaving no buffer zone. A daily close below this confirms a medium-term bearish shift.
2. The ceiling for the rebound is marked: BTC 77,000–78,100 is the densest trading zone over 90 days (16% of volume concentrated here) plus MA100; the first wave of rebound is very likely to be sold off here; similarly for ETH, 2,410–2,490 holds 31% of volume.
3. Positive changes in position structure: BTC active buy/sell ratio jumped from 1.27 to 2.83 (support at low levels), large holders' short ratio slightly decreased from 0.51 to 0.49, and funding rates are close to neutral—indicating "bottom friction" rather than a one-sided downward continuation. However, retail long/short ratio remains high at 2.33, longs have not surrendered, so don't expect a V-shaped reversal. I'm not jumping in on this wave; the rise doesn't make sense. 76,058.7 has been reached, but 24h volume shrank by 45.15%.
This morning's "settlement before 20:00 at 75,500–76,300": the window's high was 76,023.2, low 75,781.7, and the 1H close above 76,700 did not occur.
The daily cost paid by bulls dropped from 0.00669% to 0.000103%, about 0.01% of the 1% benchmark.
The 1H network explosion was 5,871,500, 3.8 times the morning; 4H shorts at 10,797,300 surpassed longs at 8,317,900. The price was propped up by squeezed shorts, not newly bought spot, with open interest increasing by 1.2 billion.
If the 1H closes above 76,300, this line is invalidated; only dropping below 75,569.1 can we talk about 75,300. I expect BTC to range between 75,569.1 and 76,300 before the ETF reopens tomorrow; I won't take a breakout.
But one thing doesn't side with me: IMX at 0.1219 rose 2.52%, SAND fell 2.15%, YGG fell 3.76%. These are single-point quotes, not money returning.
The Hyperliquid ZEC-USD 439,500 trade is the largest single trade in 24h. Personal opinion, not investment advice.
Leverage is back, spot isn't yet. Is this a refill or a start?
$BTC $IMX $ZEC #Tech stocks rebound after US stock market plunge, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4%$ONE Looking at this guillotine, it really makes your scalp tingle. After a sharp surge, it quickly fell below the high-level pivot, and the upward momentum has completely exhausted. Currently, the funding rate is deeply negative, and the short position ratio is as high as 54.99%, with retail investors blindly chasing shorts.
Under the extremely crowded bearish consensus, it is very easy to trigger reflexive fake moves to lure shorts. Entering the market at this time has very poor odds, no margin of safety, and is highly likely to be wiped out by two-way spikes. Wait for a new balance to be established on the right side; don't try to catch a falling knife.The overnight bullish candle was earned by the AI chain itself: the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose 4.2% in one day, Nvidia and AMD both rebounded, pulling the Nasdaq up by 1%. But the weekly tally still looks bad—the Nasdaq fell 3.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq has already retraced more than 10% from its high a month ago; the technical correction has long been established. There's a counterintuitive point here: on the US stock side, the strongest sell-off was followed by the strongest rebound, but on the crypto side, there isn't even a decent rebound. I've observed this kind of market for many years; after the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000, it bounced three times, each time people shouted it was the bottom, but all three were just panic waves, and the real bottom only appeared two years later. The difference between then and now is what broke: that year it was valuations and earnings that were bad; this time it's leverage and funding channels that are broken—the capital expenditure for AI is still rising, chip capacity is still being stacked toward advanced storage, the story hasn't ended. But the story existing doesn't mean the money is there. This round, spot products have withdrawn for two consecutive trading days, with a net outflow of $1.6 billion over the week; this is not sentiment, it's primary capital exiting. The money from the tech stocks' oversold recovery is finding positions within the US stock pool itself and won't casually jump over the wall into crypto. So the inference that "risk appetite has returned, so crypto prices will naturally follow"—I don't buy it. You're either betting that tech stocks will bring risk appetite back together, or you're betting that crypto has to endure until that money is willing to return. Those who treat US stocks as a leading indicator for crypto have already been proven wrong twice this round.Orbit tonight's third most discussed topic: BTC spot ETF has a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year, with 2,132,100 views and 420 posts, making it the most viewed topic tonight. This number should be considered together with another one. Last night's fourth most discussed topic: BTC spot ETF net outflow of about $1.1 billion in the past 7 days. Both numbers indicate outflows, but their scopes are completely different. First, the scope is different. The 7-day outflow of $1.1 billion refers to the flow rate: how fast funds have moved in the past week. The cumulative net outflow of $416 million this year refers to the ledger: whether funds have been net in or out so far this year. A fast flow rate does not mean outflow all year. Second, the rhythm is different. Roughly calculating from the two public numbers: a $1.1 billion outflow in the past 7 days, but only a $416 million cumulative net outflow for the year, indicates that the earlier part of the year was roughly a net inflow of about $680 million, and the recent week's accelerated outflow flipped the annual ledger to a net outflow. The outflow is not uniform; it has only recently accelerated. Third, the position is different. During this week of accelerated outflow, BTC dropped from 82,000 to around 76,200, and ETH returned to around 2,244. Prices fell but did not crash or immediately rebound. With accelerated outflow and price bottoming, just focusing on the outflow number is not enough; we need to see if anyone is buying the dip. Putting these three numbers together changes the interpretation. The 7-day outflow of $1.1 billion reflects recent weekly sentiment; the cumulative net outflow of $416 million this year,$AAVE
Aave’s long-term strength comes from its position in decentralized lending, where liquidity and borrower demand matter more than short-lived market narratives. The real test is whether lending activity remains sustainable across different market conditions. Rising deposits alone are not enough; healthy borrowing demand, manageable liquidations, and competitive yields are equally important indicators of ecosystem strength.#SoftBankQ2AIReturns
432bp: SoftBank's 5-year CDS on Tuesday, its widest since November 2022.
It only broke 400bp a week ago.
The stock is down about 50% from its June high.
Bloomberg Intelligence sees at least $6B of cash outflow in the year to March 2027.
And SoftBank is in talks to put more into OpenAI's ~$30B round at a $1.4T+ valuation.$SNDK Storage market has value but no buyers?
It's a bit tense
Shared this as early as last year
Multiple memory module manufacturers and third-tier PC brands are slacking in pre-sales and after-sales... 2028
The market will have 9 DRAM suppliers coexisting
Some of them already have clear plans to increase production #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% I prefer to see "whether it can survive" as the foundation of value storage, rather than just a conservative slogan. Having grown accustomed to the industry chasing speed and new narratives, this approach of first asking whether the system can withstand risks actually makes me feel more assured.
Vitalik posted on X that if the main reason for holding ETH is value storage, the primary metric is survivability. He advocates for conservative security trade-offs, including hash-based security mechanisms, formal verification, rounds exceeding known security requirements by three times, and pursuing partial protocol finalization.
My judgment is that this holds greater significance for long-term holders than for short-term sentiment stimulation. More functions do not necessarily mean a more reliable asset; if protocol expansion introduces more attack surfaces and capture risks, then so-called upgrades might also add an invisible risk bill for holders. This is my understanding.
Another key point is that security cannot stop at the protocol level. Whether holders can securely store, maintain privacy, and smoothly send transactions also determines whether the asset is truly usable. Reducing infrastructure dependence means lowering reliance on a few service providers when using this system.
Therefore, I would not directly translate these words into positive price news. What I want to see next is whether Ethereum can maintain security and decentralization as a bottom line while increasing asset utility. After losing tens of thousands of U in liquidation, the first thing he calculated was "how many meals of four dishes and one soup it could buy" 🫧 Have you ever had such a moment: your account goes to zero, and you start converting your losses into living expenses? These past two days, I saw a record where $SNDK, $SOXL, and $MU all liquidated together. Holding on for a month, tens of thousands of U wiped out. The money came from saved meal expenses, but the stop loss was never triggered. Honestly, my first reaction after reading this was not to mock, but a pang in my heart — this "just wait a bit longer and it will come back" mentality is more familiar than any bearish candle. Let's first define the current rhythm of US tech stocks: it’s neither a start nor a distribution phase, but more like a volatile oscillation after a sharp drop. The Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%. Tech stocks have rebounded, but the quality of the rebound is more worth watching than the magnitude. This stage is most easily misread as "the trend is back," but in fact, it’s just short covering and bottom-fishing funds fighting for rhythm. My main focus is on cross-market linkage. This pullback in US tech stocks transmitting to crypto is not a simple "risk appetite synchronization," but a rhythm mismatch: when the Nasdaq falls, BTC does not immediately follow, indicating it is currently supported by its own narrative; but if US stocks continue to weaken, ETH and altcoins’ beta will fail first because their marginal buyers rely more on sentiment than cash flow. In other words, US stocks are the source of pressure, crypto is the amplifier, and in between are positions and leverage. The bullish path also holds: if the tech stock rebound can continue and the Nasdaq weekly decline narrows, risk appetite will first return to large caps, then slowly spill over to ETH,Does a 13% increase mean the bulls are back? Don't be too quick to celebrate. Who exactly is being liquidated in this ACT rally? I've been watching this line for a while, and my most direct impression is: the activity is real, but the support is thin. ACT current price is 0.011768, up 13.41% in 24 hours, surged to 0.012950 in 15 minutes then slipped back, KDJ is stuck at a low level, Bollinger upper band is pressing down, short-term momentum is actually already gasping. Many see the rise and assume "buying is back," but I pay more attention to the details in the liquidation structure. Total liquidation in 24 hours is 280,100, with short positions accounting for 55.5%, meaning this rally looks more like a short squeeze rather than a signal of new bulls entering collectively. After the shorts are squeezed out, the force driving the price up is reduced. Looking further, the liquidity distribution of liquidations is even more worrisome. About 125 million below, only 30.06 million above, the largest concentration is near 0.01; if the price falls another 5.89%, it could trigger, making the risk of bottom testing obviously high; the liquidation zone above is at +3.16%, where selling pressure is actually lighter. Translated into market terms: upward space is being suppressed, while the "magnet" downward is stronger. From the perspective of capital preference, short-term rallies in small-cap targets like ACT usually attract fast in-and-out speculative funds, not trend funds willing to hold. This kind of money comes quickly and leaves quickly; once the short squeeze ends, the follow-up depends on spot buying and narrative continuation, neither of which currently shows strong evidence.When I see this message, what comes to mind is the company's risk reserve: this money usually seems to have low input-output efficiency, but when something really goes wrong, it must not fail. The biggest fear in business is putting working capital into a place where you can't access it when needed.
Vitalik stated on X that if ETH is regarded as a store of value asset, the primary metric is survivability. He advocates conservative security trade-offs, including hash-based security mechanisms, formal verification, and rounds exceeding known security requirements by three times, while also cautioning to carefully assess the impact of fast block production on centralization.
My judgment is that this approach is commercially viable, but it is more about controlling implicit costs rather than immediately increasing revenue. The more protocol features there are, the heavier the maintenance and error burden might be; setting high thresholds for expansion means taking fewer orders but avoiding dragging down the foundation.
Another consideration is cash flow. Just because assets can be held doesn't mean they can be smoothly used when needed. Ensuring transaction sending and reducing infrastructure dependency addresses availability; increasing collateral and conversion uses improves capital efficiency. My guess is that if increased utility brings heavier dependencies, the added utility might be offset by risk costs, so one shouldn't just watch the excitement.
But "more stable" does not necessarily mean suitable for operating cash. Friends in business, if you put ETH into long-term reserves, are you more worried about price volatility during temporary turnover or about underlying system issues making it unusable? 🔥BTC, how much longer are you going to stay sideways? It has fallen all the way down from around $80,000, and now after two consecutive waves of negative news, the price still holds above $75,000. You could say it's strong, but it can't break through; you could say it's weak, but when it drops, it quickly recovers.
📉 What torments traders most about BTC now isn't the sharp drops, but the endless oscillations. After a long sideways period, patience wears thin and the sense of direction fades. The market always says that a long sideways means a drop, and a long drop means a rise, but anyone who has actually traded knows the market doesn't follow such simple rules.
📊 I actually think that holding above $75,000 after consecutive negative news at least shows there is some support below. But this doesn't mean the bottom is confirmed, nor does it mean buying now is necessarily safe. Whether it can truly strengthen depends on whether it can break through the resistance zone with volume later.
🤐 A friend asked me today: Is $75,000 a good bottom to buy? I was silent for a long time and didn't answer. Not because I don't want to help, but because I know that saying "yes" might turn into a real-money decision for him. If it keeps falling, who will bear the loss?
🎯 Whether going long or short, trading is ultimately your own choice. Being able to bear the consequences is true maturity. Do you think BTC holding $75,000 means it has stabilized? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 [Weekend Tokenized US Stocks] Friday's rebound was not erased, but Sunday barely found a direction
US stock spot market is closed on weekends. OKX tokenized market on Sunday showed low volume sideways: XNVDA ranged about 189.00/187.09 all day, with a volatility of about 1.0%, trading volume about $580,000, roughly 20% of Saturday's; XTSLA volatility about 0.3%, XAAPL only about 0.17%. As of around 21:03, XNVDA≈187.90 (about -0.4% in 24h), approximately 0.7% higher than Friday's close at 186.64; XTSLA≈358.08 (about -0.4%), XAAPL≈342.80 (unchanged), XAMZN≈260.40 (about +0.2%).
On Thursday, the seven giants lost about $1 trillion in market value in one day, with Nvidia alone about $440 billion, and Friday recovered part of the losses; some traders believe the adjustment may take a few more days. On Monday, watch wholesale inventories and earnings reports from Take-Two, Occidental Petroleum, KKR, etc. $BTC ≈76008 (about +0.1%), $ETH ≈2240, Fear & Greed index about 28.
Click the link to view the market/place orders: https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/xnvda-usdt
Sunday's low volume held Friday's rebound, Monday's open looks more likely to hold, or should we wait and see? Click #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% XNVDA to view the market$SEI
Speed is useful, but speed without meaningful applications creates limited long-term value. Sei combines parallelized transaction processing with Ethereum-compatible development infrastructure, targeting applications that require responsive execution. The bigger test is ecosystem retention. Can developers attract users who continue transacting after promotional incentives disappear? That distinction could determine the network's fundamental strength.$XAUT
Tether Gold targets the same idea as PAXG, so the comparison is natural. Both depend on trust in the issuer, vaulting arrangements, and attestation quality. Differences in jurisdiction, transparency, and redemption access are where the two actually separate, and that's what a careful reader should check.#Anthropic still plans an IPO in November, investors lower valuation expectations. Once the non-farm payrolls were released, the market's previous hopes for a rate cut were directly dampened. Employment data significantly exceeded expectations, wages did not stabilize, the labor market remains very resilient, and bets on a December rate hike were immediately raised. U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the dollar strengthened.
The logic is simple: with a hot job market, the Federal Reserve has no pressure to ease quickly; instead, it has the confidence to continue controlling inflation, prolonging the duration of high interest rates. Valuation pressure returns to U.S. tech growth stocks; the previous sharp drop was followed by a rebound that was merely short covering, not a trend reversal.
This macroeconomic trend directly impacts Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset; rising interest rate expectations increase the cost of leveraged funds, making capital more willing to allocate to risk-free returns like U.S. Treasuries, causing pressure on the market. BTC spot ETFs continue to see outflows, institutional funds remain cautious, and combined with rate hike expectations, it is difficult for the market to sustain a large rally.
Going forward, focus on CPI inflation data, as this is the Federal Reserve's ultimate decision basis. Currently, it is just an expectation game, volatility will increase, so do not chase rebounds with heavy positions. Control your position size and wait for the macro dust to settle before taking action.
Open your position list, check the current position proportions, and avoid being overexposed.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP $BTC 🔥 Bottom grinding, institutions continuously withdrawing funds! The most core contradiction in the crypto space right now: technicals have entered the oversold zone, but ETF outflows have not stopped
US October nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, with 165,000 new jobs added and unemployment rate falling back to 4.1%. The market has raised the probability of a rate hike in December, and macro pressure persists. Against this backdrop, the market shows a very contradictory state: prices can't fall further, volume shrinks and consolidates, but institutional funds continue to exit.
📊 Market data
BTC current price near 75,850, short-term oscillation range 75,500—76,300; RSI(6) only 23, already in extreme oversold. Key support at 75,000, if broken look down to 73,000. Recent long-short ratio 3.00, open interest 2.62 billion, almost no liquidations in 4 hours, selling pressure temporarily easing, but no new inflows.
ETH current price near 2,234, range 2,200—2,240, 2,200 is a critical defense line; RSI(6) as low as 18.63. ETH ETF has seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, currently at 2,241, long-short ratio 3.27, open interest 1.53 billion, long and short positions stalemated, no independent strength momentum.
SOL current price 89.39, repeatedly contested around 89, support at 88.82/88.71, long-short ratio 3.81, open interest 320 million.#Nasdaq Is About to Enter the Era of 23-Hour Trading#
Nasdaq no longer plans to "close." Starting December 6, it will implement a 23-hour trading schedule, five days a week, leaving only one hour from 8 PM to 9 PM Eastern Time for maintenance. Simply put, this is not charity; it's a business grab: making it convenient for global investors to "trade US stocks in their own time zones," perfectly covering Asia's daytime. This is about expanding and strengthening the market. For ordinary retail investors, there are pros and cons. The market never sleeps, so your trading frequency will increase, and the risk of losses will grow. The advantage is that it "puts the initiative back in your hands." Previously, Asian retail investors either had to stay up late watching the market or wake up to find their accounts already gapped, forced to accept the opening price passively. The most practical benefit of 23-hour trading is: no more adjusting for US stock time differences. The new night session covers Beijing time from 10 AM to 5 PM, so you can work during the day, glance at the market during lunch break, and fit trading into your normal routine without staying up late. Secondly, when earnings reports drop after hours, you can finally act immediately instead of helplessly waiting for the next day's open to get hit. When sudden macro news breaks, retail investors can react instantly like institutions, which to some extent is "trading equality." Simply put, time freedom itself is an advantage—but the premise is that you control your impulses and don’t turn "being able to trade anytime" into "wanting to trade all the time." In the past week, Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $365 million, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses. BlackRock's IBIT became the largest source of outflows, with over $400 million withdrawn in a single day on Friday. This data directly caused the cumulative fund flow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2026 to turn negative, with a net outflow of about $914 million year-to-date. On the surface, it appears institutions are retreating, but it is important to distinguish between flow and stock: since the product launch, BTC has still seen a cumulative net inflow exceeding $55 billion, and ETH about $12 billion, with this week's outflow accounting for a limited proportion of the historical cumulative amount. This round of outflows is highly concentrated and continuous. ETH has experienced net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with about $2 billion withdrawn since the end of September; the redemption intensity, calculated by asset scale, is significantly higher than BTC. Funds are simultaneously leaving both major crypto ETF channels, indicating that the issue is not with a single asset or product, but a systemic contraction of institutional risk exposure. Driving factors include a decline in risk appetite after the midterm elections, stronger-than-expected employment data pushing up US Treasury yields, cooling expectations for rate cuts, and the opportunity cost disadvantage caused by the lack of staking yields in ETH ETFs. As ETFs are the most liquid channel, they often become the primary target for institutions to reduce positions when adjusting their portfolios. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week BTC and ETH fell by 7.3% and 16.0% respectively, with market breadth sharply contracting. The root of the volatility lies not in the prices themselves, but in the capital structure: both BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows, with ETH experiencing a massive $1.6 billion outflow in a single month, indicating tactical contraction in institutional demand. More challenging is that the total open interest across the market has dropped to a 12-month low, with leverage basically cleared out, yet the perpetual funding rate remains positive, meaning longs are still paying to stay "bullish"—the chips have cleared, but those unwilling to admit defeat are still holding on. The future trajectory is more likely not a one-sided breakout, but a bottoming process followed by divergence. 10x Research expects BTC could still reach $90,000 by year-end, but only after first dropping to $77,000–$79,000 to complete the final shakeout, and ETH is expected to underperform BTC because value continues to flow to Layer 2, leaving ETH holders without sufficient returns. The key signal triggering a trend reversal is the funding rate turning negative, which would mean bulls truly concede and a bottom structure is established; before that, any rebound is more likely a recovery rather than a reversal. #US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, December rate hike betsI always thought I was just betting on the direction, but later realized I was actually paying someone else's bill.
Holding ETH perpetual contracts without moving, the funding fee is deducted day by day, and even if the direction is right, you might not profit. The most frustrating part is that you have no choice about this money; it follows the position and charges you whether the price goes up or down.
Now some say you can separate this cost layer and trade it independently, with one contract covering 30 days for a $1000 exposure. It sounds like buying insurance for your position, but my first reaction is: the person selling me this insurance, why should I believe they can bear the risk?
The direction is your own judgment, the fee rate is someone else's rule. These two things have been mixed together for so long that we've all gotten used to it.Breaking down CORE's current four major contradictions: security, governance, liquidity, tokenomics
The biggest highlight of CORE is BTC staking, but it is currently trapped in four core contradictions.
① Security contradiction: The BTC staked by users is secure, but the CORE token contract has repeatedly suffered vulnerabilities. In the b14g incident, 97 million tokens were stolen, with only about 70% recovered. The tracking of remaining assets and compensation plans remain uncertain.
② Governance contradiction: The project team directly modified account balances through a hard fork to recover assets, breaking the public's perception that public blockchains are immutable; coupled with key personnel exiting the DAO, unclear transfer of rights and responsibilities, the trust crisis continues to ferment.
③ Liquidity contradiction: Bithumb is about to delist CORE, causing existing liquidity to drain, market depth to thin, and increasing the risk of price spikes, while the market worries more exchanges will follow suit.
④ Tokenomics contradiction: The previously anticipated revenue buyback has yet to materialize, validator rewards continue to be released over 81 years, causing long-term inflationary dilution of tokens, compounded by fierce competition in the BTCFi sector, resulting in ecosystem self-sustainability falling short of expectations.
The short-term rebound is merely an emotional recovery; without resolving these four fundamental contradictions, a trend reversal is difficult to achieve. Stayed up all night and went through the lending market; the more I look, the more uneasy I feel.
On the $BTC side, longs have borrowed 1864.85 coins, while shorts total 50.9 coins. The ratio is 36.6:1. I stared at this ratio for a while—it doesn't mean the longs are that strong, it just means almost no one is willing to take the opposite side. All the leverage is squeezed through the same door, and the moment someone pushes the door from outside, there's no order to who gets pushed out first.
On the $ETH side, there are 17,600 long loans outstanding. $SOL is also accumulating, but my records have a few gaps, so I haven't verified the exact numbers and won't guess.
What really scares me about this structure isn't the slow decline, but the sudden event: the price shakes a bit, liquidation orders start feeding each other, and within minutes everyone who needs to be taken out is taken out. Those cursing in the group afterward are basically the ones who maxed out their leverage.
I'm not guessing the top, nor planning to short. But with such imbalance, keeping positions smaller and leverage lower at least prevents you from being a backdrop when others are getting liquidated.Burning is like a fire; it can generate heat but doesn't necessarily create a floor. Seeing this message, I actually feel that equating "more burning" directly with "valuation floor" is a kind of lazy habit we're too used to.
Vitalik stated on X that ETH burn revenue mainly comes from internal uses within the crypto ecosystem, and when the coin price plummets, the payment capacity for these uses also declines. The growth of the RWA economy brings better external revenue support to Ethereum, but mature businesses are unlikely to replicate the scene where digital monkeys burned $180 million worth of ETH in a single day.
My judgment is that this is good for the valuation discussion of $ETH but cannot be directly taken as positive price news. Internal demand fears rising and falling together: when the market is hot, usage and burning both thrive; when the market is cold, payment capacity shrinks accordingly. Treating this income as a safety net might precisely reveal the cushion thinning when it is most needed.
What deserves more observation in RWA is the source of demand, not the burn record. My speculation is that if on-chain business corresponds to real settlement demand, then its dependence on crypto market conditions might be lower. However, business going on-chain does not necessarily mean value will flow to ETH; actual usage and payment must be considered.
I will pay less attention to how much was burned in a day and more to why these fees occurred. Do you think that to judge whether RWA can support ETH, we should prioritize looking at business scale or the actual on-chain fees it brings?$MU is fixated on the stalemate of Micron's market closure, with nearly 87% of dead long positions going absolutely insane. After a plunge of a thousand points followed by a volume-less sideways consolidation, it appears to be forming an exhaustion pivot, but in reality, it's overdrawing the last bit of liquidity. The extreme mismatch of a 6.69 long-short ratio fully exposes the collective sunk cost fallacy, with the market filled with stubborn holders refusing to admit defeat.
The moving average system in this downtrend cycle offers no margin of safety; the system is in an extremely fragile state. Once micro-level buying dries up, it easily triggers reflexive stampedes. The likely next step is a brutal false breakout downward to forcibly clear high-leverage floating positions, thereby reshaping the volume-price structure. Current odds are very poor; best to wait quietly for the trend to complete its final breakdown and bottom search. 🔥Price is grinding at the bottom, but institutions are withdrawing! The biggest contradiction for BTC and ETH right now is that technical indicators are already oversold, yet ETF funds have not stopped flowing out.
📉According to the current market, BTC is oscillating around $75,850, with $75,500–$76,300 as the short-term battleground; ETH is hovering at $2,234, with the $2,200–$2,240 range temporarily providing important support. The entire network saw $54.46 million liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions losing about $42 million, so bulls have not truly relaxed.
📊Technical indicators are quite extreme: BTC RSI(6) is 23, ETH only 18.63. After continuous declines, prices have started to consolidate with shrinking volume, indicating selling pressure may be easing, but this is only a short-term signal and does not mean the trend has reversed.
💸The biggest concern currently is the capital flow. From November 2 to 6, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, ETH ETFs a net outflow of about $365 million, with ETH ETFs experiencing net outflows for six consecutive weeks. IBIT and ETHA also showed significant capital withdrawal. Without sustained capital inflow, rebounds lack crucial support.
🔍Next, BTC needs to hold $75,000; if it fails, watch $73,000; for ETH, focus on $2,200. If tonight there is only a price rebound without volume and capital support, I still won’t easily chase longs. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The four-year cycle still holds true for $BTC, but applying the same timeline to altcoins has failed — the most glaring crack in this cycle is not the price, but the misalignment of rhythm. In the 2023 to 2025 market, altcoins actually peaked as early as the first half of 2024 and have not followed Bitcoin to new synchronized highs since. While the market is still using the "four-year bull" template to project the entire scene, the real divergence point has shifted to: where exactly Bitcoin's own bottom will land. The historical low of $57,800 is currently the most critical reference point. Before it lie two completely opposite paths: one is the price dipping again, breaking the previous low, and forming a brand-new bottom; another is only retesting the 6x,000 level for a second bottom, marking the end of the bear market; and a more aggressive version — launching a strong rally right now, with the bull market starting early. All three paths are plausible, and because of this, no one can give a definitive answer now, including myself. But not seeing a clear direction does not mean acting recklessly. What truly determines profit or loss is not prediction accuracy, but discipline. My principle is strict: do not buy unless the price falls, only act during sharp drops. Patiently wait for opportunities, the buying price must have enough margin of safety; if not, better to miss out. Missing out does not lose money, opportunities will always come again. Here lies a signal that most people underestimate: when the market anchors $BTC to the four-year cycle but anchors altcoins to the old peak of the first half of 2024, the two clocks are already out of sync. If Bitcoin truly completes a second bottom near $57,800 instead of breaking down,Next week (11.9-11.3) BTC and ETH outlook
Current inflation isn't that hot, everyone thinks no more rate hikes are needed, US Treasury yields are falling, the dollar is weakening, and money is willing to come out to gamble on risk assets.
BTC, a type that jumps as soon as liquidity loosens, is the most responsive to this, like gold, first being driven by capital.
This week, ETFs ran nearly 1.28 billion, acting as the main force pushing prices down.
Historically: outflows bottom out + the day net buying starts = institutional action signal.
Two or three consecutive days of net inflows often lead to a big bullish candle.
Long-term holders have chips at historical highs, and coins on exchanges are decreasing.
Whales have absorbed over 120,000 BTC in the past month.
The market is thin on sellable coins; even a small buy order can push prices up.
Now many are betting on a drop, but once the price breaks 77,000, short positions get stopped out, and shorts have to buy back to close.
The more they buy, the higher it goes; the higher it goes, the more shorts get squeezed, potentially leading to a big bullish candle.
Swing trade reference:
BTC: Buy on pullback near 74,800 and 73,800, target 77,000; if it breaks up, look at 79,000-82,000
ETH: Buy on pullback near 2,200 and 2,170, target 2,400; if it breaks up, look at 2,500–2,600
In short: rate expectations turning dovish give direction, ETF inflows provide ammunition, chip concentration gives elasticity, short covering triggers breakout; BTC is a high-beta liquidity-sensitive asset, and when these four factors align, a big bullish candle is likely.
$BTC $ETH $xMETA Bearish: Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in Q3, S&P changes outlook to negative
Tokenized US stock XMETA current price $612.14, down 0.10% in 24 hours, trading volume about $8,450, cash market fell about 0.79% last week
In last month's Q3 report, Meta recorded a free cash flow deficit of $2.12 billion, the first quarterly negative since listing, with full-year capital expenditure guidance of $135 billion to $145 billion
On October 30, S&P downgraded the outlook from stable to negative, maintaining the AA- rating, expecting free cash flow shortfalls of about $39 billion in 2026 and about $71 billion in 2027, and stated it is still unclear when AI investments will break even (Reuters/CNBC)
In early November, the company plans to issue another $20 billion to $25 billion in bonds to fund AI infrastructure (CNBC), and on the 3rd, S&P rated this proposed issuance AA-
Current cash flow cannot cover expenditures, and the rating agency has further increased the projected shortfall for next year and the year after.
#AI巨头融资观察：OpenAI完成110亿美元融资，科技企业发债潮持续 TRX prediction based on chart data:
TRX is showing some green right now, trading at $0.32052, but let's be realistic. Look at the chart. After a big peak around $0.37, it crashed hard, dropping below $0.31. We saw strong red volume which means heavy selling. The recovery since then has been weak with low green volume and a very long red wick on a recent candle, signaling a rejection of higher prices. Moving averages also look bearish.
Based on this, my "all time" (long-term) prediction for TRX London asset management firm Abraxas Capital holds approximately $451.85 million in open contracts on Hyperliquid, almost entirely short positions, about four times Wintermute's exposure of approximately $107.59 million. Abraxas Capital has unrealized losses of about $37.24 million, with total short exposure around $451.68 million. Major shorts include BTC at about $158.66 million, HYPE at about $77.6 million, ETH at about $75.27 million, and ZEC at about $63.51 million. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC has fallen causing widespread panic, but the proportion of profitable on-chain chips has once again returned to an important area at the beginning of a historical bull market!
I strongly agree with wander's analysis!
In the early bull markets of 2016 and 2023, PSIP dropped to about 57.7%; this round's lowest was 58.3%, currently about 59%, all three are very close! This means that about 40% of BTC supply is currently at a floating loss. More notably, when BTC previously rebounded to 87K, PSIP rose back to 78.2%, but now it has fallen again, indicating that the repair of the chip structure is still tortuous.
I still tend to believe that BTC is in the consolidation and turnover phase at the beginning of the bull market. Of course, historical similarity does not equal bottom confirmation! The 2020 black swan event once caused PSIP to drop to 44.3%. What really matters is whether sustained capital absorption can appear after panic, allowing profitable chips to expand again.
Confidence in the bull market is not shouted out, but proven by data and real money!1.32 million UNI, approximately 11.05 million USD — address 0xC374…9813 has almost only incoming transactions for nearly 45 days.
According to Lookonchain around November 7: this address has cumulatively bought about 1.32 million UNI, with the latest monitored purchase of about 308,500 UNI (approximately 2.13 million USD). On-chain, it almost only receives and does not send, with an average price above 8.3 USD; the current price is still around 7 USD, so cumulative buying does not equal profit yet.
In the same timeframe, wallets related to the Uniswap Foundation have net transferred about 1 million UNI (approximately 7.3 million USD) to Binance through multiple hops. Transferring to an exchange does not mean it has been sold, and the foundation has not made any statement. Both sides can be viewed in parallel; do not directly interpret this as a dump.
The UNIfication fee toggle and burn plan recently passed governance, which should be considered background information, not a buy or sell signal.
Why it matters: one side is accumulating, while foundation-related addresses are moving tokens to exchanges. Looking only at "someone is buying" misses half the picture.
Confidence level: Medium | On-chain monitoring and secondary analysis (Lookonchain / Blockchain.News), purchases and transfers are based on public transfers. Which side do you want to focus on first — the accumulation side or the exchange transfer side? $UNI $SNDK Looking at this market during the holiday closure, and then glancing at the bullish ratio as high as 89.79%, it really feels suffocating.
After a large-scale waterfall plunge followed by a volume-less sideways consolidation, the moving average system still shows an absolute bearish alignment, firmly suppressing the price. The weak golden cross below the waterline is merely a feeble gasp after momentum exhaustion. Nearly 90% of retail investors are trapped in an extreme sunk cost trap, stubbornly holding on, while the positive funding rate indicates the bulls are still bleeding.
Under such extreme crowding, reflexivity will inevitably trigger an extreme long-liquidation stampede. This liquidity-starved deadlock will most likely be resolved by a downward spike to clear out the last floating positions.
Tomorrow, Monday's opening, we await the news and shifts in market sentiment.Who would have thought that the income gap between Bitcoin mining and AI has become so large.
I was a bit surprised after reading IREN's latest financial report: AI cloud revenue reached $200 million, while Bitcoin mining only made $28 million, a difference of more than 7 times.
They are already shutting down some mining machines and converting the original land, power, and machine rooms into AI data centers.
So the question arises: if all mining farms switch to AI, will there be no one left to mine Bitcoin?
My judgment is no.
If this kind of transformation increases, computing power might drop in the short term, and block production could slow down. But Bitcoin will adjust the difficulty itself; with fewer miners, the remaining miners will find it easier to mine coins, profits will return, and naturally, people will come back.
A more likely outcome is diversion: mining farms with the cheapest electricity and the newest equipment will continue mining coins, while others with good conditions will switch to serving AI.
People used to say AI and Bitcoin were competing for chips, but now it seems the real competition is for electricity.
A company's AI revenue is 7 times that of mining coins; sooner or later, the boss will have to recalculate this account. #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Attention CORE holders: Bithumb will stop trading on November 30, withdrawal countdown begins!
According to the official announcement from South Korea's Bithumb, CORE trading will officially terminate on November 30 (Korean time 15:00), and all unfilled orders will be canceled; users still have a grace period, with withdrawal channels remaining open until December 30, 15:00. After the deadline, assets cannot be withdrawn. The reason for delisting is that the previous trading warning issues related to CORE have not been properly resolved.
This delisting will directly remove a large portion of CORE's local liquidity in South Korea, further thinning market depth, increasing slippage, and making flash crash scenarios more likely. Coupled with the coin theft incident and core member departures, the market will further worry about other exchanges following up with reviews.
Two practical reminders for holders: ① If your CORE is stored on Bithumb, be sure to plan your time and prioritize completing withdrawals before the deadline. Do not wait until the last moment to avoid network congestion and review delays that could trap your assets; ② After liquidity shrinks, price volatility will significantly increase, so do not blindly bottom-fish or gamble on short-term rebounds.
Exchange delisting is only one aspect of the risk; governance disputes and selling pressure risks still exist. Until substantial improvements are made amid multiple negative factors, caution must still be maintained.Strong jobs +165K vs 65K expected pushed December hike odds to 76% (CME FedWatch, Dec 9 meeting), up from last week.
The 10Y spiked on the data but closed Friday at 4.86%, still far below its October peak (5.3%).
$BTC is the weak link, under 76.8K even as yields fell.
CPI on Tuesday is the next test. NFA.
Is this a rates story, or is crypto waiting for its own catalyst? #USJobsBeatExpectations $BTC held without selling for the past 3 years: +114%. Only missed the 10 best-performing days: −14%.
· Period from 2023-11-08 to 2026-11-07, total 1096 daily candles, opened at 35,400, closed at 75,868
· These 10 days account for only 0.9% of all days
· Among them, 5 days occurred within 3 days of the top 10 largest down candles in the same period. The harshest was on 2026-02-05, dropping 14.0%, followed by a 12.2% rise the next day
· Missing the best 20 days results in −56%
The weekly chart has had 4 consecutive down weeks, with ETFs seeing a net outflow of 1.28 billion USD in one week, giving plenty of reasons to exit. If you decide to exit, follow your pre-established plan and don’t get emotionally forced off on a big down day.
The best days often come right next to the days you most want to cut losses.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily candles (UTC), calculated independently
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 美国那份就业数据把 12 月的路又堵回去一半：10 月新增 16.5 万、等的是 6.5 万，失业率掉到 4.1%。数字落地之后盘面已经消化完了——比特币在 7.59 万横着，这十只主流里九只的 24 小时波动都在 1% 以内，谁都不想先动手。真正在动的是钱：现货通道 11 月累计净流出约 12.8 亿美元，连续第二个交易日往外撤。压着价格的是这个，不是情绪。 先报上一轮的账：TRX 做多 0.3203→0.3205（+0.02% 盈），止盈 0.3216、止损 0.3197 都没碰，方向对；LINK 做多 10.73→10.77（+0.35% 盈），止盈 10.87、止损 10.64 都没碰，方向对；BNB 做多 699.80→698.65（-0.16% 亏），止盈 703.93、止损 697.32 都没碰，这单没中。两中一负，三个位置全在原地——这种横盘给不出利润，我给的是方向。 这里有个反直觉的地方：本轮波动最小的是 TRX，它也是全场最不拥挤的一只；波动最大的 ZEC，反而是多头最拥挤的那一只。波动和筹码居然是对着走的。你现在是满仓等那个数字，还是空着手看这九只横着？ 本轮三选In the past 20 hours, a transfer of 1,670 ETH worth 3.73 million USD moved out from Tornado Cash into Hyperliquid, sold, and entirely converted into 2,959 ZEC. 3.73 million on both sides, no cash left over.
First, consider the nature. The primary purpose of funds coming out of a mixer is to break the link, not to profit from price differences. So this is not a bullish move on ZEC, but someone needing to convert ETH into an asset without history on another asset. The direction changed; the motive is privacy, not profit.
Next, look at the channel. Hyperliquid has sufficient depth, fast order execution, and no need to go through layered spot exchange processes. For a position change that must be completed within 20 hours without leaving traces, this is the shortest path.
Will $ZEC rise? There is real buying pressure in the short term. Dropping 3.73 million USD into a target with a market cap far smaller than ETH definitely has greater elasticity. But this buying pressure can leave at any time without prior notice.
What’s worth considering is another layer: the on-chain data reveals the withdrawal time and amount—linkage is cut, but behavioral patterns are not. Will the next person taking the same path dare to do so?
The short-term opportunity for $ZEC is real, but the profit you make is from liquidity mismatch, not narrative fulfillment. The stop-loss logic for these two types of profits is completely different.💎 Vitalik Buterin: ETH is a store of value, not a fee-burning token*
The Ethereum co-founder explained why he believes $ETH should be developed as a store of value rather than as an asset whose price is supported by burned fees.

He proposes to keep the EIP-1559 fee-burning mechanism but not to rely on it as the main source of value.
Why is the burning model weaker than it seemed?
The idea is simple: if the network burns $1 billion in fees annually, then at a 4% discount rate, the token supposedly cannot be worth less than $25 billion.
This is exactly how ETH’s price was justified from 2021 to 2023.
But this was never a true "floor."
Most fees came from internal crypto transactions: lending, memecoins, NFT ape sales, which burned $180 million in one day. If ETH dropped 10 times, these revenues would fall along with it.
Why does chasing fees harm decentralization?
To justify the current market cap through fees, Ethereum would have to operate like a global corporation on the scale of L'Oréal.
And large corporations spend billions on development: for Ethereum, this is about 700,000 ETH per year, which is two-thirds less than validators’ income.
Moreover, corporations require strict management that constantly reshapes the product for new markets.
There is another problem: maximizing fees means expensive gas, which displaces exactly those users who need privacy and security the most.
Why store of value is the right path
What people value most in Ethereum is decentralization, censorship resistance, open source code, privacy, and security.
For those holding ETH as a store of value, the main metric is one — survival.
Therefore, Vitalik bets on conservative cryptography protected against quantum computers, gradual "freezing" of the base protocol, private and secure storage, and the guarantee that no one can block your transfer.
He runs a full Ethereum node on a laptop: synchronization took less than 6 hours and only one-eighth of the disk.
This is an important shift in the narrative: ETH now competes not with corporations but with Bitcoin and gold. DOGE’s handling of technical debt has merits, but the praise that "it completely fixed transaction malleability in 2015, even earlier than BTC" needs to be cut in half first. In 2015, Dogecoin Core 1.10 introduced BIP66, which was activated in 2016, enforcing strict DER rules to constrain signature encoding; BTC had already implemented similar rules in 2015. It did not change the signature algorithm nor completely close all malleability entry points. Malleability allows transactions to change thLIT didn't lose a level. It lost its market.
Four sessions capped it near $3.57; last session broke on $5.05M, 23% of the $22.4M average. Price fell 5.9%: nothing dumped, bids just stopped.
24h flow $6.3M. $XRP turned $18.2M, $SOL $18.7M — three times that.
Waiting. Watch $3.15 at the open: above $12M of flow and still under, I flip.
Buy before the test, or wait for it?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$LIT $XRP $SOL #Litentry #OKXOrbit #Crypto Five consecutive weekly declines, should we bottom-fish or wait for 67800?
Tonight's market is really frustrating me—not a drop, but grinding down patience. $BTC is now at 75973, fluctuating about 450 dollars within 24 hours, and the weekend felt like a standstill. But with the weekly close, this week marks basically five consecutive weekly losses; historically, only twice has there been a longer losing streak: the 2022 wave and the six weeks at the start of this year.
My judgment is: consecutive losses aren't scary; what's scary is money actually flowing out. The US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion this week, and for the whole of 2026, it has turned negative 914 million; BlackRock alone withdrew 1.21 billion; the fear index is 28, still in the fear zone.
On the flip side, over five weeks, the drop is only 12.4%, not a crash-level decline. On Thursday, 1.27 billion in leverage was liquidated, with longs accounting for 1.1 billion; the leverage washout is mostly done; 76000 has been tested for two days without holding, but there are buyers below. Tuesday's CPI is the next hammer.
So to ask plainly: with five consecutive weekly losses confirmed, do you think this is the bottom area, dare to slowly buy near 75000, or do you think the ETF turning negative for the year means waiting for CPI to land before considering 67800?
Just a market record, not investment advice
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温