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BTC fell below 80,000, and the market is starting to worry again about the "midterm election curse."
Historically, there have indeed been multiple major pullbacks in election years, but this year's timeline is different: the low point in July was about $57,850, already completing a deep correction in advance, followed by a rebound of nearly 40%.
So I am more focused on the cost zone rather than just watching November 3rd.
Short-term outlook:
80,000 → 78,000
The truly critical area:
73,000–75,000
This is also close to the cost zone for short-term holders and institutions. If it only pulls back and holds, the bull market structure still has a chance to continue; if it truly breaks below, then the trend needs to be reassessed.
Elections may bring volatility, but what ultimately determines the strength of the market is whether the key cost zone can hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
##SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Brothers, this ETH smart money data clearly explains the current long-short situation.
Overall structure: 2,175 whale traders, total positions of 1.62 billion U. The nominal long-short ratio is only 23.96%—shorts account for 76%, with 1,382 shorting and 793 going long; the number and volume of shorts overwhelmingly surpass the longs.
On the long side: positions total 313 million U, average entry price 2863, while ETH is currently only 2346. This means the average cost for longs is 2863, now floating a loss of 69.13 million U, with a profit ratio of only 25.97%. In other words, these longs are all trapped above 2800 at high levels, deeply stuck with an 18% loss, unwilling to cut losses but suffering by holding on.
On the short side: positions total 1.3 billion U, average entry price 2311, now at 2346. Shorts have an average floating loss of 19.42 million U but still maintain a profit ratio of 65.26%. This indicates most shorts opened near the low at 2311; although there was a rebound, overall they are still profitable. The short volume is four times that of the longs, showing a very clear direction for big money.
The most critical signal: both sides are floating losses. Longs lose 69.13 million, shorts lose 19.42 million. The price is exactly stuck in the middle—longs feel it has fallen enough and shouldn’t drop further, shorts feel the rebound is about done and it’s time to continue shorting.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
SanDisk peaked at 2354 in June, but closed at 1238 last Friday, losing half its value. Today Nomura jumped out saying the storage shortage will last until 2028, and the sector valuation is seriously underestimated.
In the same week, one says it's seriously undervalued, another drops by half; this situation itself is worth pondering. Nomura's argument is valid, NAND prices are indeed rising, and AI storage is a real demand; JPMorgan also said a few days ago that the adjustment does not change the fundamentals. They collectively characterize the market's AI spending concerns as an overreaction.
The tokenized SNDK on OKX is now at 1238.9, closely tracking the US stock market. These kinds of stock tokens follow the US stock market opening; a gap down at night makes the opening tough. I always keep my position smaller than my crypto holdings. Anyway, I don't really want to watch the late-night action.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, Bitcoin has been oscillating back and forth between $80,000 and $86,000 for 9 consecutive days, with volatility gradually decreasing.
The data is very clear: the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the past 30 days has been compressed from 13% down to just 6%. Simply put, no one in the market dares to actively push the price up, nor does anyone aggressively dump; both bulls and bears are watching and waiting.
Yesterday, $BTC hit a nearly 30-day low, but fortunately it held at the 365-day moving average and even rebounded slightly. This annual moving average is currently the most important defensive support.
Experienced traders know a rule: during such prolonged sideways consolidation with narrowing volatility, a big move usually follows—either a breakout upward or a breakdown downward.
Right now, focus on two key points: to trigger an upward rally, the price must firmly break above 86,000; if it falls below the 365-day moving average, this round of support will fail, and a new downtrend is likely to start.
This frustrating consolidation phase is the easiest trap for futures traders. Many get bored with the lack of movement and keep opening and closing positions repeatedly, but when a strong one-sided move finally comes, they risk liquidation.
At this stage, don’t rush to bet on direction. Watch more and act less before a breakout. Wait for $BTC to choose a direction before making moves, and never heavily bet on guessing the rise or fall. $ETH $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 1: The ChiNext Index follows the pattern of crashes after the 2015 and 2020 bull markets. Late August 2015 and late April 2022, in terms of timing and magnitude, this time it's late October.
2: ChiNext Index decline ratio 1:1
3: RSI oversold
4: This Thursday and Friday there are Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. Once the meetings conclude, the impact will be clear.
5: The mid-year report disclosures will end by the end of this month. Basically, most major news and uncertainties will have passed,
so, personally, I think if the A-share market retests the bottom next week, boldly increase your position.$BTC
The ETF saw $773 million withdrawn over the past two days, with $635 million out on Thursday alone, the largest single-day outflow since June. By past experience, this volume should have already smashed through, yet BTC is still hovering around 80400.
I recognize the 80,000 level; the claim about institutional cost is not exaggerated. There was over 450 million liquidated in 24 hours, 86% of which were longs holding on. The initial drop washed out the chasing longs, but the price did not continue to collapse.
These days it’s grinding between 79,000 and 82,000. I tend to think it’s a turnover rather than a sell-off—the ETF is selling short-term allocation positions, while on-chain signals are actually accumulating. Of course, I was optimistic like this last time and got proven wrong, so I’ll wait and see; if it really breaks 79,000, I’ll admit I was wrong.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ On October 28, most likely nothing will happen. The CME data is clear — the probability of maintaining the interest rate in October is 90.6%, and the probability of a rate hike is less than 10%. The market has long priced in "no change this time." You also know the habit after Wash took office: no forward guidance. He most likely won't say at the press conference, "We'll reassess in December," nor will he say, "Inflation is still too high." He will say a bunch of things that leave you guessing. So the "no rate hike" on 10.28 is not a dovish victory. It hands the trigger to December. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is already 74.8%. Goldman Sachs' judgment: most officials support hiking every other meeting, once in December and once in March next year. October 28 is not the starting gun. It is the action of chambering a bullet. On October 29, Strategy's earnings report. Everyone is guessing "how much BTC MSTR bought again." That is not important at all. What matters is 848,500 bitcoins at an average price of $75,446, with a total cost of $64 billion. Where is BTC now? Around $80,800, with $81,000 having fallen from support to resistance, showing a completely bearish trend on the hourly level. That means Strategy's book profit margin has less than a 7% buffer left. If it falls a bit more, the world's largest bitcoin treasury company will switch from "unrealized gains" to "unrealized losses." What is even more worth watching is: the financing repurchase preferred stock (STRC) is consuming cash flow. That week in October, the publicBitGo, Valour, Bitget all listed? Don't get excited—Core doesn't have heavy VC holdings, only "business cooperation"
Many promotions package institutions like BitGo, Valour, Bitget as signals of heavy capital holdings, but the essence must be distinguished: Core has been Fair Launch since its inception, with no traditional VC private rounds, no top funds investing in the project or locking low-price chips.
BitGo is a custody service provider, offering BTC dual staking custody channels; Valour issues a London-listed BTC staking ETP, using Core's staking mechanism underneath, earning asset management service fees; Bitget belongs to exchange ecosystem cooperation, launching trading and staking products. Their core cooperation target is BTC staking business, not continuous buying or supporting CORE tokens.
Such business cooperation can be terminated at any time, and institutions do not bear the obligation to support the coin price. Although BTCS has a small allocation of CORE in the treasury from the secondary market, the scale is limited and cannot be considered a strategic heavy holding.
Combined with the current situation: official nodes continue to withdraw, SatPay is long delayed, on-chain fees are almost zero, and ghost chip selling pressure remains unresolved. Institutional infrastructure cooperation is a plus, but it cannot be taken as a guaranteed trump card for a bull market rise.$ETH December rate hike expectations are back on the table, and I've heard this so often my ears have calluses.
The transmission chain has three links: stronger rate hike expectations push the dollar and yields up, and risk assets collectively get pressured. The US stock market is closed over the weekend, $ETH is holding around 2350, just under 2350 dollars, 13% lower than 30 days ago, but 24% higher than 90 days ago. You read that right, those who bought in Q3 are currently in profit; the pullback just wiped out the 7-day floating gains.
The trouble is on the spot ETF side, where there has been net outflow recently, with money pulling out. $ETH Funding rates remain positive, BTC and ETH rebounds are just opportunities to reduce positions
After BTC broke the key support at 81,000, the funding rate still stayed positive, which is very telling. The market has broken down and weakened, but long positions have not been fully cleared, with serious leftover leverage, making the market structure impure.
ETH's trend is even weaker, continuously hitting new lows and showing a clear stepwise decline. The current slight stabilization is just a brief pause during the downtrend, not a true bottom.
The core issue: prices have dropped, yet longs are still stubbornly paying the funding rate.
A large number of long positions are trapped and not exiting; any slight rebound allows trapped longs to escape, while shorts add positions accordingly, resulting in heavy selling pressure above.
A true bottom signal requires the funding rate to turn negative and leverage to be fully cleaned out, which has not happened at all.
BTC no longer has its previous resilience and is weakening entirely in line with market risk appetite. ETH's continuous weakness drags down overall market sentiment, with funds generally seeking safety and high-volatility altcoins left unbacked.
The market won't see an extreme one-sided crash, but the overall rhythm has weakened: rebounds are shorter and less sustained, making chasing highs very low in cost-effectiveness.
In the short term, if BTC stabilizes above 81,000 again, it will trigger short covering and a technical rebound.
But everyone must distinguish: this is a correction, not a reversal.
Do not bottom-fish or chase the rally.
Every rebound is the best opportunity to reduce positions and hedge risk. Good news about AI chips was circulating in the morning, but by the afternoon, coins labeled with AI had fallen even harder.
$AI traded over $74 million and was still in the top ten by volume, yet it dropped more than 5% in 24 hours; $NEAR traded $115 million ranking 5th, down about 3%. In contrast, $ZEC, which is not labeled AI, sat at 4th in volume and was still rising.
My judgment: It's not that the AI narrative is broken, but money is withdrawing from the labels. BTC is still hovering around 80,600 with almost no movement, indicating this is not a market-wide panic but a targeted retreat—pricing power is returning to volume, and labels no longer provide a premium.
Signals you can watch yourself: labeled coins still rank in the top ten by volume, but their prices continuously underperform the market, meaning the premium is retreating.
The above is my personal market observation, data as of today, and does not constitute investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please make independent judgments and bear your own risks (DYOR).
For the AI coins that have fallen, do you dare to catch them or just watch first?
#欧意星球 #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #加密市场The attitude of Trump expressed in this report by Jin10 can actually be ignored; it records the statements Trump made when questioned by reporters during his campaign rally in Florida on October 24.
Especially since Trump was in the campaign stage, the reliability of all statements must be seriously weakened, as they are ultimately for political vote service and do not represent his true thoughts.
However, another piece of news might have a slightly bullish impact on Brent — the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan clearly stated that Pakistan Army Marshal Munir's visit to Tehran this Monday was as a messenger.
But Iran stated that this time it was Iran sending a message to Trump through Munir, not Munir bringing a message from Trump.
Why is this bullish for crude oil? Because this news proves that the communication channel between the US and Iran still exists, but there has been no positive progress in the situation; having a channel but no progress means both sides' attitudes, conditions, and thresholds are tougher, which is indeed unfavorable for the US-Iran situation!#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.8%, BTC fell to 81,000, with $260 million liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions.
Why does the crypto market collapse as soon as tech stocks cough?
Because all the leverage is on the same side.
This round isn’t a problem with crypto itself, it’s being dragged down.
Do you still think BTC is a safe-haven asset? #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Raising money by issuing preferred shares to buy Bitcoin was a popular tactic for a while, but preferred shares require continuous interest payments. MicroStrategy recently spent a large sum to buy back preferred shares, but they actually bought very few coins.3. The real highlight this week is the FOMC
In the early morning of October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Although 94% of economists expect the rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, the real focus is on the path in December.
The new Fed Chair, Powell, is famously hawkish, and the market is guessing whether he will leave room for a rate hike in December. Once a hawkish signal is released, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, and Bitcoin will face pressure.
4. Which is more resilient, BTC or ETH?
To be honest, ETH is clearly weaker than BTC in this round. ETH ETFs have continuous outflows, on-chain activity is cooling down, and the 2300 level has been repeatedly tested.
Although BTC has also fallen, there is relatively strong buying support near 80,000, and funds will step in if it drops further.
What’s the outlook?
In the short term, the 80,000 level is very critical. If the Middle East situation continues to worsen or the FOMC turns hawkish, BTC may test the 78,000-79,000 range. Conversely, if the situation eases and the Fed holds steady, it is highly likely that BTC will stabilize and rebound near 80,000. Brothers, the market this weekend is quite interesting. BTC directly fell below $80,000, hitting a low of 79,700, marking a new low in over a month. ETH didn't fare much better, once dropping below 2,300.
Today, let's review what has happened recently to see the real reasons behind this drop and what to expect next.
1. The Middle East situation is the direct trigger
The US has taken significant actions these past two days, withdrawing diplomatic personnel and military bases from the Middle East. Embassies in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan have all entered restricted operation status.
Intelligence reports say Iran's assassination plans targeting Americans have reached an advanced stage, and Trump has warned that the US might strike Iran again at any time.
With this geopolitical risk, the first reaction of capital is to flee. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, was hit first.
2. ETF funds are fleeing ahead of prices
A key detail in this drop is that ETF funds are moving faster than prices.
On October 22, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in one day. On October 24, another $227 million flowed out. Ethereum ETFs were even worse, with $320 million outflow in a week, with redemption intensity ten times that of BTC.A new week begins, and the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28 (Eastern Time), a macro event that cannot be ignored in this market cycle. Looking back to the last time: on September 16, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, at which time $BTC was around $76,000. Now it is around $80,000, about 6% higher. Three key points: 1. Inflation: September forecasts show the median PCE inflation for 2026 at 3.7%, still significantly above the 2% target. 2. Oil prices: Due to the Iran war, Brent crude has risen above $117 per barrel, which will increase inflation concerns. 3. Wording: Analysts often say that the "surprise" in the rate decision usually has a greater impact than the decision itself. The market cares more about whether rate hikes will continue afterward. I haven't found reliable real-time data on how much the market is betting this time; please refer to CME FedWatch for specific probabilities and don't trust second-hand screenshots. My view: volatility on the night of the decision is usually large because macro news impacts the stock market, the dollar, and cryptocurrencies simultaneously. If you trade contracts, reducing leverage before and after the decision is more practical than guessing whether rates will be raised. What signal do you think the Fed will send this time? Will $BTC try to fall below $80,000 again because of this? Let's discuss in the comments. The above is my personal opinion and a summary of public information, not investment advice; please judge risks yourself. #FederalReserve #F Three Faces of Buybacks — Burn, Retain, and Void
"Buyback" is a frequently mentioned keyword in current narratives, but ultimately, are tokens burned, retained, or decoupled from revenue?
$HYPE is the most extreme example: about 97%–99% of fees are used by the aid fund to buy HYPE on the open market and permanently burn it, with cumulative burns exceeding $4 billion. The mechanism chain is very short; burning directly returns value, and buybacks are almost synchronized with protocol revenue.
$JUP presents a different scenario: the protocol once used 50% of fees for buybacks and locking, with cumulative investment exceeding $70 million. However, during the same period, JUP’s price dropped nearly 89% from its peak. The co-founder publicly questioned the effectiveness of buybacks in January 2026, as locking and retention rather than burning reduced the certainty of supply contraction.
$GRASS shows a third state: revenue in the first half of 2026 was about $14.53 million, with a full-year guidance of $65–75 million, but all revenue flows to subsidiaries DataCo and SearchCo, and token holders have no direct claim. The scale of open market buybacks of GRASS is minimal.
Summary:
Beyond the mere presence or absence of buybacks, it is more important to verify whether tokens are burned or retained, and whether revenue itself is decoupled from the token. HYPE’s burns are immediate and continuous; JUP’s buybacks come with locking and ongoing selling pressure tug-of-war; GRASS’s revenue growth has yet to be transmitted to the token through mechanisms. These three represent three different stages of value capture.On October 25, according to PANews, analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted a reminder: BTC's volatility range is continuously narrowing, with the high-low price difference over the past 30 days compressed from 13% to 6%, and the price trapped between $80,000 and $86,000 for 9 consecutive days. The spring is being compressed tighter and tighter; a breakout is only a matter of time. ════════════ 📊【Market Overview】 🟠 Current BTC price: $80,695｜24h -0.11%, 7d -1.15% 👑 BTC market dominance: 60.73%, funds still concentrated in BTC 🌍 Total network market cap: $2.65 trillion｜24h -0.78% 😐 Fear & Greed Index: 54, neutral, sentiment neither hot nor cold Yesterday, the intraday price once touched the 365-day simple moving average before rebounding, finally closing at $80,500 — the lowest close in the past 30 days. Note this detail: 【Close hits new low, but the moving average held】, bulls and bears are clashing near the moving average. ════════════ 🔍【What does the narrowing mean】 The narrowing volatility range usually ends with an explosive move; the direction is uncertain, but the magnitude will not be small. Key resistance above: $86,000, only a volume-supported break and hold will mean bulls regain control. 📌 Critical support below: 365-day moving average; once effectively broken, technical traders will collectively turn bearish. The bear representative Peter Schiff has already spoken out, targeting the next support at $75,000 and mocking ETF holders for having no weekend support.While $SOL is falling, the open interest is climbing, and the funding rate has turned negative—a classic short squeeze is brewing. Weekend market liquidity is insufficient, yet shorts are flooding in heavily. We've seen this scenario before. Low liquidity combined with crowded positions means that once a short squeeze hits, the market will swing violently. When everyone is betting in the same direction, don't go against the trend. Stay patient, watch for a wave of short covering, and strictly enforce stop losses. The situation could get chaotic quickly. $SOL $ETH $BTC Everyone who went all-in following Duan Yongping has suffered heavy losses
Pop Mart peaked at 450 billion, but in the past year it has plummeted over 60%, with more than 270 billion HKD evaporated.
In May, Duan Yongping announced he had spent 11 billion HKD to bottom-fish, becoming the second largest shareholder. However, after his purchase, Pop Mart dropped another 36 billion. Calculated, this investment currently has an unrealized loss exceeding 2 billion HKD...
At that time, many of Duan Yongping's fans were very excited and heavily invested, now facing unrealized losses of about 15% to 20%. If leveraged, this 20% drop is enough to trigger a margin call...
Following Duan Yongping to trade stocks is not a good idea. I still remember the Tencent case:
700 dropped to 600
Duan: Tencent is good, bottom-fishing buy
Dropped to 550
Duan: I understand Tencent a bit, but not fully, bottom-fishing buy
400
Duan: Buy
250
Duan: Actually, I don’t understand Tencent very well, I only bought 1%
350
Duan: Buy some Tencent PUTs
The harshest truth in the capital market is: you and the big players are simply not at the same table.
Duan Yongping has the backing of perpetual cash flow from his industrial businesses, with OPPO and vivo paying tens of billions in dividends annually as support. This 2 billion unrealized loss might just be one year’s dividends for him; he still plays golf every day and waiting ten years or so is no big deal.
Retail investors blindly follow to buy stocks, using money meant for buying a house, marriage, or living expenses, charging in after seeing news about the big players, and suffer a 30% loss that directly damages their financial health...
In short, with different capital scales, copying others’ trades is just waiting to dieThis can be considered somewhat good news. I just saw that the SEC has included tokenization in its 2027 regulatory priorities, which should be a signal that regulation is shifting from enforcement to rulemaking. However, I still remind everyone not to misinterpret this kind of news as an imminent positive development. Even if the valuation of compliant issuers will be reflected in advance, the secondary market money will have to wait until the rules are implemented. Any benefits effective only in 2027 are worth just 30% today. Moreover, in my view, the biggest beneficiaries of this framework will not be DeFi, but rather banks and asset managers who fear uncertainty the most.Are new BTC buyers really back? This on-chain chart is worth a close look.
Glassnode tracks the proportion of BTC moved in the last 3 months relative to the realized market cap of the entire network. It measures the cost-weighted active coins recently, not the number of new entrants.
At the end of past bull markets, this ratio reached about 85% in 2018 and over 70% in 2021. But at the October 2025 peak, it was only 37%, then continued to decline, approaching historical bear bottom levels by July 2026.
The turning point is: the ratio has now risen back to about 21%, with coins aged 1–3 months contributing the most. This means some coins active in August were not quickly transferred again, indicating market absorption and holding.
But there is a caveat: "younger" coins do not equal a surge of new funds. Turnover of existing coins and wallet migrations also affect the statistics, so one chart alone cannot declare a bull market restart.
In October, BTC found support around $80,000, but supply pressure remains between $85,000 and $87,500. Going forward, we need to watch the proportion of young coins, ETF fund flows, and whether spot trading continues to improve.
New buyers have indeed started joining the group, but just because some speak up doesn’t mean everyone is ready to hold long term.
Do you think this wave is a recovery or just a rebound?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 High interest rates won't retreat, don't mistake a pause for a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The market treats "no rate hike in October, rate cut by year-end" as the script, but PMI disrupts it: manufacturing hits the strongest in 53 months, and corporate selling prices rise at the fastest pace in over a year. The economy is so hot, inflation won't cool down, so why would the Fed rush to ease? The real variable isn't whether to hike or not, but that high interest rates will last longer (¬‿¬).
BTC: Sentiment supports sideways trading, ETFs act like pulse capital inflows and outflows, no long-term base seen. Everyone hopes for liquidity, but if funding costs don't drop, who wants to buy at high levels? Long-term bullish is correct, but short-term beware of pullbacks; pause ≠ reversal, be cautious chasing highs, and firmly set stop losses on short positions (ง •̀_•́)ง.
ETH: Still a fragile follower. ETF bleeding hasn't stopped, the ecosystem lacks new breakout points. High interest rate drain hits it first, and when the market softens, it falls harder. Don't mistake sideways for stabilization; if BTC tests the bottom, ETH's decline will amplify, don't catch falling knives (￣▽￣)~*.
XAUT: Gold logic is the opposite. Short-term rebounds during high interest periods are mostly fake moves, but geopolitical conflicts + central bank buying are the trump cards. When the market truly prices in a "hard landing," safe-haven funds will take over, and gold will run an independent trend. Don't trap long-term logic with short-term sentiment (¬‿¬).
$ETH $ETH $XAU
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The water is calm and the river flows, but there is a line trembling beneath the surface
For the past one and a half hours, neither BTC nor ETH has exploded. BTC seems to be pressed repeatedly between 80,300 and 80,400, with almost zero net movement in an hour and a half; the calmness is so dull it makes people sleepy. ETH moved slightly, sliding from around 2,340 down to 2,336, a drop of just a few tenths of a percent, not even reaching the threshold of a "plunge."$ETH
Small moves, but the atmosphere is intense. Derivatives trading volume shrank by 11.66% in 24 hours, and short-term bettors are clearly retreating. What really keeps people on edge is the line beneath the surface: a certain whale’s ETH long position liquidation price is only about one hundred dollars away from today’s low, and they just added $9.21 million in margin to stay alive at midnight. The price hasn’t collapsed, but it hasn’t left the danger zone either, like a person standing on the edge of a cliff scrolling on their phone—feet haven’t slipped, but the heartbeat hasn’t stopped.$BTC
If the price chooses to "not move" to survive the liquidation line, is that a successful defense, or just postponing the explosion by a few hours? No one knows the answer. The key is on October 27–28; the market is waiting for a bigger variable to unfold. Big money chooses to lie low, short-term funds choose to watch, and naturally the market is sucked into a vacuum.
In short: it’s not that no one wants an explosion, but the fuse has been pulled out by margin calls, the explosives dampened by macro factors, and even the igniters are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s starting gun. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's ETF fund flows look quite divided 👀
BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $301.2 million over the week, but the rhythm was quite twisted: over $1 billion came in during the first three days, then $773.5 million flowed out consecutively on Thursday and Friday. The whole week's support basically relied on IBIT alone, which saw an inflow of $565.7 million over five days, while FBTC and ARKB actually experienced outflows.
ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $220.7 million for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $1.1 billion in October.
My understanding: institutions haven't fled but are being selective, concentrating funds into top BTC products while ETH is being neglected. The prices reflect this as well, with BTC hovering around 80,000 and ETH dropping to about 2,350.
The biggest variable next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, with oil prices still above $117. If the meeting leans hawkish, outflows like those on Thursday and Friday may repeat; if the tone is more dovish, BTC is more likely to rebound first, and ETH will need capital inflows to outperform.
Personally, I am lightly positioned before the meeting and not betting on direction. Do you think ETH will continue to be drained?
Sources: Farside Investors, NewsBTC, Investing.com
Personal views only, not investment advice, DYOR
$BTC $ETH
#ETF fund flows #Federal Reserve meeting #BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC is currently reported at about 80,650, after dipping to 79,146 over the weekend and then recovering above 80,000. ETF had a net inflow of 5.05 million yesterday, with IBIT alone taking 16.78 million, but on a weekly basis, IBIT took 566 million while others withdrew 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. The probability of FOMC maintaining interest rates is 90.6%, with no position taken before the meeting, waiting for a clear signal with volume.$SNDK 10/29 This earnings report, I tend to think it will exceed expectations, and I am optimistic it can rally after the release.
The company's adjusted EPS guidance is $44–46, with the market expecting $45.22, basically right in the middle. Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, and this guidance has already moved up quite a bit. The logic of NAND price increases and locked-in long-term contracts still holds, so I think the performance has a chance to be even better.
However, the stock price has been falling, dropping from $1,887 back to $1,238, a pullback of over 30%. Compared to the last earnings report, profit expectations are higher, but the stock price has been moving downward recently, which is also why I am leaning bullish this time.
Of course, a big drop doesn't necessarily mean it will rise. But my judgment is that if this earnings report beats expectations and next quarter's guidance doesn't disappoint, the previously suppressed sentiment might ease, leading to a rebound.
I will focus on next quarter's revenue guidance: if it can reach above $12 billion and maintain gross margin, that would be more reassuring; if it falls below $11 billion or gross margin drops significantly, then this judgment would need to be revised.
So my prediction this time is: earnings will be favorable, expect a rebound after the release, first seeing if it can recover $1,300. As for whether it can continue up to $1,450–1,550, that depends on the guidance and capital reaction.ETH smart money trader position core data analysis, both longs and shorts under pressure, who is really making money!!!
ETH current price 2346.37, down 1.13%, current funding rate 0.0079%.
Smart money total positions 1.62B USDT, total traders 2175, nominal long-short ratio 23.96%.
Longs (793 traders)
Current position 313.47M USDT, average entry price 2863.83, unrealized floating loss 69.132M USDT, profit ratio only 25.97%, vast majority of longs are trapped, entry cost far above current price, huge pressure.
Shorts (1382 traders)
Current position 1.30B USDT, average entry price 2311.51, unrealized floating loss 19.4258M USDT, profit ratio 65.26%. Number of short traders and position size significantly larger, although most traders are still profitable, overall accounts also show floating losses.
Current price is squeezed between long and short costs, longs deeply trapped, shorts slightly floating loss, also a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Long profit ratio less than 30%, clearly the weaker side.
For market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS Robinhood Chain is starting to look like more than a place to trade tokenized stocks.
DEX volume fell 30% to $6.35B, yet DeFi TVL climbed to $1.058B.
And the bigger signal? Morpho had $486.8M in open loans.
Trading cooled off, but lending kept growing.
That week alone, borrowers paid ~$417K in interest + liquidation bonuses, while Morpho itself recorded $0 in protocol revenue.
The market may be shifting from speculation to financial infrastructure.
$HOOD $xHOOD
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth People buying gold to hedge against inflation might feel especially frustrated these days: energy prices are rising, yet gold prices once fell below $4000.
On Friday, spot gold touched around $3975 intraday. This trend reminds me that gold's reaction to inflation is far from the straightforward "prices go up, gold goes up" logic.
If rising energy prices make the market worry that interest rates will stay high longer, non-interest-bearing gold faces opportunity cost pressure. Coupled with the dollar, real interest rates, and position adjustments, short-term performance can completely differ from the most intuitive safe-haven logic.
I do not completely dismiss gold's long-term allocation role because of this drop, but I will reassess the expectations when buying. Using it to diversify long-term risk and expecting it to rise immediately every time the situation tightens are two different needs.
The $4000 round number is very eye-catching, but after breaking below it, we still need to see whether funds continue to sell and how interest rate expectations change. Relying on a single round number makes it hard to judge whether the adjustment has ended or just begun.
What’s most uncomfortable is that the risks we worry about are still there, yet the asset bought for hedging makes the account suffer first.
At times like this, I prefer to clarify the holding period. Long-term allocation requires the ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, while short-term trading needs separate exit conditions and cannot change plans to long-term only after a drop.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Four major events line up next week: the Federal Reserve decision, the ECB, US GDP and PCE, and Friday's options expiration. Who will trigger first is unknown, but before the explosion, there will definitely be a shakeout in the market.
$BTC is "grinding and waiting": hovering around 80800, price unchanged, positions holding against the trend, with 175 million liquidated; price not falling and positions not reducing means it's not stability, someone is still filling. No volume surge means no chase, just riding sideways to profit from volatility and losing on fees.
$ETH is "following the weakness": grinding at 2360, falling deeper, positions flowing out, 157 million liquidated; ETFs are withdrawing nearly 1 billion in October, staking at 2.6% can't compete with 5% treasury yields, so funds have no reason to return actively. Positions keep flowing out with no uptake.
$SOL is "forgotten": fluctuating at 102, positions shrinking, long liquidations, but accounts still hold over 76% longs, many talk long but sell with hands, this divergence is even more frustrating; no volume surge to show presence means no added drama.
All fees are positive: BTC 0.0071%, ETH 0.0053%, SOL 0.0062%, longs pay to hold positions; total daily liquidations across the network hit 542 million, up 14.52%, a typical sideways market deleveraging—price isn't killed, positions are.
Conclusion: No directional bets before the decision, just watch three lines—whether BTC positions keep rising, ETH positions keep shrinking, and whether SOL continues to be forgotten. Whichever changes first will move, if none change, just watch. Staying still is harder than moving; survival depends on steady hands.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $IRYS 的上涨动能正在衰竭，而市场还在用上一轮的剧本等它“再冲一次”。原文给出的判断很直接：这枚币已走完拉升段，接下来更可能是缓慢阴跌、偶发弱反弹，直到无人问津时才出现一波不大不小的修复行情——老剧本，重复上演。真正值得警惕的不是跌，而是“跌到没人讨论”这个信号本身：它往往才是下一轮反弹的起点，而非终点。😮💨 再看 $ORDER，原文的态度异常鲜明：别碰。控盘极紧，随时可能暴拉也可能瞬间崩塌，方向不由基本面决定。若非要参与，只能分批小仓，并做好归零准备。这不是看空，而是承认这类标的的价格发现机制已经失效——在这种结构里，任何“技术位”都是幻觉。 $BTC 才是这轮叙事的锚。原文给出两个关键价位：80,000 与 76,000。逻辑是：若先破 80,000，会诱出一批追空盘，随后反而可能触发强势上攻；而只要 76,000 不破，多头希望就仍在，长期看涨立场不变。这里藏着一个容易被低估的预期差——市场把 80,000 当成阻力，原文却把它当成“洗空头的诱饵位”。换句话说，破位不等于转熊，而可能是反向燃料。确认信号很清晰：80,000 失守后若出现放量下杀却快速收回，就是空头陷阱成$APR This project itself has Jump and Coinbase backgrounds, and it did do real cash buybacks in the early stage, so the story is somewhat complete. But the fatal flaw lies in the token structure, with a circulation rate of just over 20%, and a cliff-like large unlocking is about to happen, nearly half the current circulating supply. Watch the 15-minute chart closely; after a pump, the MACD immediately forms a death cross and crashes down. This is clearly making room for low-cost chips to sell. Jumping in now is just being an ATM for others.
$RLS RLS is involved in blockchain game distribution, with only about 15% circulation, the market cap is extremely light, and any random order can distort the candlestick chart beyond recognition. The buyback and burn narrative sounds impressive, but there's no verification of where the funds come from. Its 24-hour turnover rate is extremely high, all short-term hot money quickly in and out. On the 15-minute chart, it spikes with a long upper shadow, showing obvious lack of momentum, a typical pump-and-dump; once the hype fades, the true nature is exposed.
$USELESS USELESS is on my blacklist, not even worth analyzing. Pure stagnant water variant and Meme collector, relying on the name to disgust people, pumping once to scam once. This kind of trash coin has no game theory logic at all, just block it and don't look at it; touching it is just giving away money.
In summary, with the current high-interest environment tightly suppressed, there is basically no incremental fresh capital entering the market. Altcoins are just robbing each other, chaotic and reckless. Control your hands, hold firmly the big coins like BTC and ETH with solid fundamentals for the long term, and don't touch these meat grinders. Two hundred billion dollars of capital expenditure is placed on the board at once, but what it gains is only a pawn that has yet to promote—a path pawn. This is not an offense; it is an exchange that stakes the entire rear wing.
Google's parent company chose to reveal the midgame only after the U.S. stock market closed on October 28th, a cunning move under time pressure: first letting all opponents calculate on their own for a day, then putting the answer on the table at the market open the next day. What truly makes grandmasters frown is not whether the cloud business can keep running fast, but that it pushes the 2026 budget directly to the range of 195 billion to 205 billion—this means the pawns in the deployment phase have already reached the sixth rank, the spatial advantage is real, and the permanent weaknesses are real too.
To understand this game, you must distinguish which piece is the path pawn and which is the iron horse. Search advertising is the iron horse occupying the strong central squares; moving it even one step loosens the entire defense line. Cloud computing is the most aggressively advancing path pawn; the further it goes, the more support it needs from other pieces, and the cost of support is capital expenditure. Computing infrastructure is the pawn structure itself—every pawn you push out today will come back to settle accounts with you in the form of depreciation three years later. Most people in the market only calculate one step: whether revenue exceeds expectations. But those truly sitting at the board calculate the twentieth step: when the depreciation curve will surpass the gross margin curve, and in which quarter free cash flow will start to show overlapping and isolated pawns. Once the pawn structure deteriorates, it takes more than three moves to repair, and the opponent will not give you three moves.
As for the mapping token $xMETA anchored to the U.S. stock market, it has never been an independent game. It is a response move on the adjacent board: as long as this opening system of ultra-large-scale computing power continues to push pawns forward, all suspended pieces hanging on the same system will vibrate synchronously—cloud growth is the fuse, capital expenditure is the gunpowder, and gross margin is the restraint no one wants to touch first. You think you are trading a token, but you are actually bearing the joint responsibility of the entire industry's pawn structure.
Sacrificing pieces is the easiest move to misread in this game. Giving up current free cash flow to exchange for future air superiority in computing power is theoretically valid—provided the opponent cooperates, meaning demand cannot slow down before the endgame. But once the revenue growth support line breaks, what is sacrificed is not a piece, but the pawn wall of the king's wing.
The report after the close on October 28th essentially answers a pure chess theory question: do you want a beautiful midgame or a winning endgame? Usually, you cannot have both.
True masters are not focused on the single number of cloud business growth at this moment, but on the ever-tightening restraint between depreciation and cash flow—pushing pawns across the river does not count as a win; only holding the promotion square counts. #alphabetq3cloudandaiWhen a building announces that its number of tenants has hit a record, the first question a structural engineer asks is never how much the rent has increased, but rather—whether the live load has exceeded the design value. Robinhood delivered a 32% year-over-year revenue growth and 22 billion in net deposits; this report card looks impressive on the surface, but a beautiful facade never proves that the internal framework is stable. Deposits are the foundation reserves, while trading volume is the live load pressing down daily, and live load is cyclical—like wind load, you have to verify it under the most unfavorable conditions.
What truly makes me cautious is its load-bearing system. A platform that lives off trading commissions is essentially a large-span space supported by temporary booths—crowded with people during busy times, but when it calms down, you realize there are hardly any columns in the middle. The key in Q3 is not how steep the revenue curve is, but whether there is a continuous transfer layer beneath that curve capable of transmitting vertical loads. Whether trading activity can sustain translates into engineering terms as: can the building’s natural frequency avoid resonance with market sentiment?
What is the new business? Is it an added curtain wall, or a new core tube? These are two completely different construction plans. The former only improves the appearance; the latter determines how tall the building can be. If the new business just moves revenue from Building A to Building B, that’s interior decoration, not expansion. What’s really worth monitoring is whether the foundation depth has increased along with the building height, and whether the user asset retention structure has shifted from short-term leases to long-term load-bearing walls.
Now look at that record 22 billion in net deposits. The shinier the number, the more I want to check the thickness and reinforcement of the foundation slab—are these funds settled static loads, or temporary piled loads that get withdrawn at the slightest disturbance? The capital attributes of a financial platform are like the soil quality of a building’s foundation; once the moisture content rises, the bearing capacity immediately discounts. Q2 revenue growth was 32%; if Q3 is sustained by increasing trading frequency, that’s equivalent to adding dynamic loads to the structure without fatigue verification.
I don’t care how the candlestick charts jump after the market opens; I care whether, after stripping away the financial report’s decorative layer, its load transfer path is clear, continuous, and free of stress concentrations. A financial report is like a main structure inspection—what’s exposed is always decoration, what’s hidden is the construction. When a building starts relying on continuously adding external advertising spaces to maintain popularity, its structural design lifespan was actually predetermined at the blueprint stage. #hoodq3tradinggrowth#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report before 9 AM on October 28 (Wednesday) Seoul time, before 8 AM Beijing time.
Market expectations are high: FnGuide's consensus operating profit forecast is about 76.96 trillion KRW, which if realized, would mark a record sixth consecutive quarter. The biggest highlight is HBM4, which is the first quarter to fully include revenue from Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform HBM4. According to Counterpoint data, in Q2 it held about 50% of the global HBM market share, ranking first.
Three things I want to watch:
1. The shipment progress of HBM4, especially whether the capacity ramp-up of the 12-layer stacking goes smoothly;
2. Whether the Q4 guidance is further raised;
3. Whether buybacks and dividends are increased.
But the fuller the expectations, the easier it is for "good news to be fully priced in." No matter how good the earnings are, if the guidance falls short even slightly, the stock price may still drop first.
Scam warning: Whenever there is a hot topic, "Hynix concept coins" and "AI chip coins" will appear, which have nothing to do with the company. If you see them, just swipe them away.
Do you think this time it will exceed expectations or is the good news already priced in?
Not investment advice, DYORCore DAO 在伦敦证券交易所（LSE）业务真相 $CORE代币本身并没有在伦敦交易所上市。上市的是第三方发行商 Valour（DeFi Technologies旗下）的BTC质押ETP产品（1VBS），底层质押技术由Core提供支持。很多社区宣传会简化说成“Core登陆伦交所”，这是宣传口径，并不是CORE币挂牌交易。 产品：1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking（1VBS） 1. 是什么：ETP（交易所交易产品，类似ETF），在伦敦证券交易所公开交易，受英国FCA监管，实物比特币做底层资产，比特币进入Core网络做非托管质押产生收益 。 2. 业务逻辑 - Valour公司持有真实BTC，机构冷存储保管； - 将BTC委托到Core网络验证者进行质押，产生质押奖励（标称年化约1.4%）； - 质押收益归入产品净值，投资者买这个伦交所证券，间接拿到“BTC价格涨幅+质押收益”； - 2025‑09专业投资者开放；2026‑01拿到FCA许可，对英国普通散户开放交易 。 3. Core在这里扮演角色：底层技术服务商 - 提供Satoshi‑P+0.007% 的资金费率，在 BTC 刚跌破 81,257 美元前低的夜里，安静得有点刺眼。 你猜这是买方最后的倔强，还是空头还没收网的信号？ 昨晚盯着 ETH 那根 23 号的阴线看了很久。它直接打穿了 22 号 2,358 美元的底，最低摸到 2,350，现在 2,383 附近趴着，像台阶一样，每一级都比昨天矮一截。表面看是跌不动了，但我总觉得这种"稳"更像下坡路上的一次喘气，不是终点。 真正让我警觉的不是价格，是衍生品那头的表情。BTC 资金费率还挂着 +0.007%，ETH 是 +0.006%，价格在破位，多头却还在乖乖付保费。这说明追多的人没走干净，杠杆也没清完。这种结构最脆弱的地方在于：一旦反弹，空头有利润加仓，多头有残仓等解套，上方每一格都容易变成卖压。反过来，如果费率突然转负、持仓快速缩水，那才是挤压空头的燃料，可惜现在还没看到这个苗头。 跨市场看，BTC 从 21 号 84,876 的高点连跌两场，23 号最低 80,457，已经丢了 21 号的 81,257 支撑。它不再是那个"跌得慢一点"的避风港，而是跟着风险偏好一起往下挪。ETH 更弱，山寨会更敏感——这种时Core DAO 所谓王牌（核心技术+标杆产品） 一、底层王牌：Satoshi Plus 共识（最大叙事卖点） 1. 混合共识，比特币算力 + BTC质押 + CORE质押三方共同保护网络，宣传为“比特币安全加持的EVM公链”。 2. 支持自托管BTC质押：比特币不用跨链、不用包装，用比特币原生时间锁就可以参与质押拿收益，资产用户自己保管私钥，是它和其他BTC二层最大差异点。 3. 双质押（Dual Staking）：同时质押BTC+CORE，解锁更高收益，制造CORE代币的需求。 4. 兼容EVM，以太坊工具、合约可以直接迁移，转账速度快、手续费低 。 风险：共识逻辑复杂，历史上出现过验证者奖励漏洞，需要硬分叉修复，机制复杂度带来安全隐患。 二、BTCFi（比特币DeFi，生态主赛道） 1. 自托管BTC质押系统 项目第一招牌，把沉睡的比特币变成生息资产，不需要把BTC交给托管方。产出BTC流动质押凭证，凭证可以在生态借贷、DEX中继续使用。 2. Colend（旗舰借贷） 生态原生头部借贷协议，允许质押BTC/LST做抵押借贷；现状：合约还在，但TVL萎缩Core 官方（Core DAO）主动撤出自己的验证节点，分两种完全不同的解读，要看是主动下线退出验证集合，还是只是临时停机。 一、最理想的解读：去中心化（利好叙事） Core 网络总共只有 31 个活跃验证节点。 - 基金会把自己运营的官方验证节点主动退出，不再霸占验证席位，把出块资格交给社区第三方验证者。 - 代表项目方不再把持网络控制权，弱化基金会对链的掌控，符合公链去中心化的目标。 - 属于很多公链后期的常规操作，本身不代表链要跑路。 但这里有个关键点： 虽然官方节点退出，但如果大量质押委托仍然集中在少数头部验证人手里，网络依旧高度中心化，只是控制权从项目方转移给了少数大户。 二、需要警惕的负面信号（市场最关心） 如果是在没有提前公告的情况下，核心官方验证节点突然退出，一般会被市场解读为下面这些问题。 1. 项目方运维收缩、预算缩减 运行验证节点需要持续服务器、运维人力成本。 - 币价持续低迷、生态收入不及预期，团队缩减开支，不再承担验证节点成本。 - 说明项目方已经不愿意持续投入维护这条链，属于基本面转弱信号。 2. 团队信心不足 I'm holding Yes. Strategy already disclosed a ~$20.9B unrealized BTC gain for Q3 (8-K, Oct 5), so most of the headline profit is already known. Consensus EPS is ~$21.5, but it's based on only 3 analysts, and my rough math puts GAAP EPS above that even after taxes. Risks: a ~$4.1B deferred tax reversal, inconsistent estimates across sources, and a history of misses. Earnings: Oct 29, after close.Sunday midday session, focus by coin:
1. LAB: 0.044→0.0377, 0.037 is the last line of defense; order book dropped 81,000, pushed up 224,900, lacking users and volume, do not bottom-fish if broken.
2. BTC: 80191, broke 81000, support at 80000; new wallet received 9,458 BTC (771.5 million) from Wintermute, market makers still on Binance; options 80000 positive Gamma may act as mechanical support. Save bullets before FOMC, if breaks 80000 look at 75000.
3. ETH: below 2433, 155 million buy orders at 2300, exchange outflow of 169,770 tokens hits April high; but OG selling, takers biased to sell. Holding 2300 confirms pullback, if broken look at 2256/2226, then down to 2200.
4. RE: 0.377 with only 310,000 volume, thin market, lack of participants; waiting for chain liquidations to trigger compensation demand.
5. Sentiment: Fear and Greed at 50 neutral. Anchors: LAB 0.037, BTC 80000, ETH 2300, no dramatics. $BTC $SOL $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Samsung's Oct 29 Q3 release matters because the preliminary profit jump only describes the outcome, not its durability. HBM4 shipments, memory pricing, and profitability across businesses can show whether AI memory demand is broadening earnings power or merely lifting a narrow part of the cycle. That distinction will shape confidence in the improvement.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook In the past month, USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, and USDT decreased by 1.194 billion. My first reaction after reading this was: where exactly did the money that people kept shouting about waiting to buy the dip go?
I checked the changes in USDC over the past month, and there are indeed many overlaps with BTC's trend. Especially during several obvious drops in USDC supply, BTC was also weakening.
But there's one thing that's easy to misjudge. For example, if someone redeems USDC for dollars, it could be withdrawing funds or just a matter of fund management; if someone uses USDC to buy BTC, the stablecoin just changed holders, and the total supply doesn't decrease at all. So just looking at this 4.9 billion doesn't tell us how much selling pressure there really is.
What I want to know more is, among these reduced stablecoins, how much truly left the crypto market, and how much just moved elsewhere.
BTC midday price is 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average still pressing at 80,825. I’m not changing my bullish view for now, planning to buy near 79,600, set stop loss at 78,800, and target 82,000 first, then see about 83,500.
But this time I will watch one more condition: if when BTC breaks through 82,000, USDC and USDT supply are still continuously declining, I might halve the position I originally planned to add.
Conversely, if stablecoin supply starts to rise and BTC can reclaim the previous high, I’d be more willing to hold the long position longer.
Lately, I’ve been staring at candlesticks for a long time, but sometimes it’s really better to see if the money has come back.The open interest of perpetual contracts did not decrease but increased from October 24 to 25, rising from 8.44 million contracts to 8.79 million contracts, an increase of about 350,000 contracts. On the same day, SOL was hammered down to 98.62 intraday, nearly a 4% drop within the day.
Open interest is the sum of positions on both sides; its increase indicates new positions entering the market, but the direction cannot be inferred from open interest itself. The simultaneous price plunge and rise in open interest statistically lean more towards shorts and hedging positions. Bulls willing to take positions at this level would not cause a significant increase in open interest. The funding rate supports this: at 00:00 on October 25, the funding rate turned negative to 0.00002754%, with the mark price at 99.71. Funding rates turning from positive to negative usually occur when shorts dominate.
What truly explains the situation is the following segment. At 23:00 on October 24, open interest peaked at 8.79 million contracts, then fell to 8.52 million contracts by noon on October 25, a decrease of 270,000 contracts. During this period, the price barely moved, hovering around 102.6. Price staying flat while open interest drops indicates positions are exiting, but the direction remains unchanged.
$SOL is currently reported around 102.6. This batch of newly opened positions withdrew 270,000 contracts, and the price did not rise, indicating the exiting longs were not absorbed. A decline in open interest itself is not a bullish signal; it only shows leverage is retreating. A true bullish reversal requires the price to first break back above 104 with increased volume. Without volume movement, the exiting positions will continue to unwind.I just reviewed the stablecoin data from the past month: USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, USDT also dropped by 1.194 billion, totaling about 4.9 billion. This outflow scale is quite dramatic, no wonder BTC has been struggling to rise recently.
I specifically looked at the changes in USDC supply and BTC price; the two lines often move quite similarly. When USDC decreases sharply, BTC usually doesn't have a good time. When USDC starts to increase, BTC tends to rally.
However, there's a confusing point here: a decrease in USDC doesn't necessarily mean people are selling coins to cash out; it could also be redemptions or fund migrations. Some people exchange USDC for USDT, so the money actually remains within the market. But now even USDT supply is decreasing, so this needs closer attention.
I'm still bullish on BTC, but I don't want to chase around 81,000 these days. At midday, BTC was at 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average at 80,825, which is still capping the short-term. I plan to buy around 79,500–79,900 with a stop loss at 78,800, targeting 82,000 and 83,500 upwards.
Also, I plan to add USDC changes into my daily market monitoring. Everyone is researching where liquidations are happening and which whales have opened how much leverage, but I'm more interested in seeing if stablecoin supply can rise when BTC pushes to 82,000 again.
If the coin price goes up but USDC keeps dropping, I might reduce my position first. After all, this round has been quite a rollercoaster, and I want to hold my long positions a bit longer.周末流动性差，最容易让人误判趋势阶段。 你以为这是山寨在补涨？其实市场在给BTC重新定价风险。 我盯着这组数据看了一会儿，越看越觉得味道不对。表面上是资金去炒BTC的"影子资产"，但主流币一个都没被带起来，BCH也软软的，这就不是普通的板块轮动了。周末薄流动性放大了局部投机，却掩盖了真正在发生的事：市场在重新给BTC定价，而不是在扩散风险偏好。 先看几个关键信号： - BTC卡在30日区间0.2%的位置，月内只跌3.6%，RSI 42。这不是崩，是被钉在底部做积累，跌势被控制住了，更像启动前的沉默而非派发。 - XRP最弱，30日区间6.1%，RSI 34.7接近超卖，月跌18%，三条均线全压头上。技术面最差，但也意味着空头预期已经打得比较满。 - BCH夹在中间，MA7贴着279，RSI 40.9，30日区间16.7%。弱但没塌，缺的是方向，不是信心。 这里有个容易被忽略的第二层传导：如果BTC在80000上方稳住，周末这种山寨投机反而可能是风险偏好回暖的前哨，只是顺序错了——先炒影子，再等主流确认。反之，80000一破，散户情绪会先慌，周末薄流动性下的下跌会被放大，XRP这种已经超The most noteworthy news today in the AI circle and on-chain: Switzerland approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at retail investors.
Issuer BIT Asset Management targets a November listing on the SIX exchange. This is the first time Swiss regulators have opened the door for retail investors to access a spot Bitcoin ETF.
There are two other pieces of news in the same batch that are interesting to compare.
HSBC's Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin launched on PayMe, available to 3.3 million users, usable at over 100,000 merchants, running on HSBC's own private ledger.
Bybit obtained Dubai VARA's first full spot trading license, but still needs to complete the launch process before going live.
Putting these three together, the direction is clear: traditional finance is moving onto the chain, not the chain waiting for traditional finance. HSBC uses a private ledger for its stablecoin, not a public blockchain; Switzerland's ETF approval goes through a regulated exchange, not DeFi.
The real variable this round isn't the coin price, but "who issues licenses and who builds the channels." Once these channels are established, the path for retail investors to enter will be completely different from the previous cycle.
I will be watching two things: whether Switzerland's ETF can list on schedule in November, and whether HSBC's stablecoin will expand beyond Hong Kong. $SIGN is bearish. There are 21 days left until the cliff unlocking on 11-15, with the pressure window concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, which hasn't arrived yet. The highs on the chart have been steadily rising, so the structure is indeed intact. However, this rally is happening in a very thin market, with trading volume and contract open interest close to zero; a 5.5% amplitude can be pushed by very few orders. Such a thin support cannot withstand a concentrated supply release; in the week before the unlock, the event will outweigh the technical structure. Backtesting shows that in the 7 days before large unlocks, $SIGN underperforms the market; two sample periods show consistent direction, with about three-quarters of events closing negative. After the unlock, there is no stable direction. Therefore, watching the unlock day itself is not very meaningful; what matters is monitoring $SIGN's strength relative to the market in the final week. There were only 3 long liquidations, and almost no leverage was used, so the possibility of a drop accelerated by liquidations is very small; it is more likely a gradual weakening. Conditions to turn bullish: after entering the 7 days before the unlock, if $SIGN outperforms the market and holds above 0.011238, the bearish view is invalidated. If it first breaks below 0.010648, it indicates that supply has already been priced in early.