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Being able to participate on the listing day does not necessarily mean better odds. When I see this kind of news, I first consider the appeal of "catching the first day" together with usage restrictions; simply being earlier is not enough to improve the expected value.
Dinari promises to launch dShares on the day of Anthropic's IPO, with US investors also able to participate; previously, Ondo's announced plan was aimed at non-US investors. However, Dinari's tokens in the US remain non-transferable and cannot be used for DeFi. I believe this is more beneficial for expanding participation channels rather than increasing DeFi asset supply.
My speculation is that if users only want to gain related exposure and accept these restrictions, the new entry point has value; if they expect free transferability and access to on-chain gameplay, then it is not worth imagining too much about the "first day." Covering more people does indeed increase the likelihood of product usage, but if permissions remain unchanged, it is difficult to infer on-chain portfolio demand. I would value channel expansion and functional openness separately.Conclusion first: On Friday, US stocks in AI rebounded across the board, except Anthropic moved in the opposite direction.
$NVDA +1.3%, $COHR +11.0%; OKX perpetual contracts on $ANTHROPIC dropped 10.4% in 24h, falling from 152.4 to 130.74, now at 134.7.
This is not a sector issue, but a primary market pricing issue: WSJ says major investors don't believe Anthropic can go public at $1.5 trillion valuation, Bloomberg reports buyers only see $1.1 trillion.
Three points:
1. At 20:00 last night, a 4H candle traded $17.2 million, accounting for 63% of the day's $27.3 million volume.
2. Positions only $7.21 million, 24h volume $26.13 million, turnover 3.6 times.
3. 20-level order book totals less than $8,000, best bid only 1.017 shares at about $137, a $10,000 market order can easily consume the best bid; funding rate has been 0.
Valuation cut to $1.1 trillion is -27%, perpetual contracts only down 10.4%, discount only halfway there. With such thin depth, a single-sided position creates its own slippage; 134 is not "the bottom".
What do you think Anthropic should be priced at, $1 trillion or $1.5 trillion? $ANTHROPIC#韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫
$SNDK $BTC KOSPI plunged sharply intraday triggering a circuit breaker, halting trading for 20 minutes. The main drivers of the sell-off were the storage chip leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with significant declines.
The trigger came from the expected changes following the US midterm election results: the market fears that with the Democrats controlling the House, AI data center regulations will tighten, capital expenditure on computing power will shrink, directly suppressing demand for storage chips. Coupled with the previous stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and rising rate hike expectations, high-valuation growth stocks face dual pressure.
✅ Transmission logic
- The Korean stock market is highly tied to memory semiconductors, which are upstream of AI computing power, with concentrated chips and high elasticity; bad news easily causes foreign capital to flee en masse, triggering a stampede;
- Panic spreads along the AI industry chain, with Taiwan stocks and A-shares in computing power, optical modules, and semiconductor sectors simultaneously under pressure;
Risk appetite quickly declines, indirectly suppressing risk assets like BTC; gold gains some support as a safe haven asset.
⚠️ Key distinction: this is a repricing of valuation and demand expectations, not a complete end to AI industry logic. In the short term, it is a concentrated exit of crowded trades, and volatility will continue to spread across the Asia-Pacific market.
📌 Practical approach
The global tech chain is entering an emotional sell-off phase; do not rush to bottom-fish computing power or chip-related stocks.
Combined with nonfarm payrolls pushing up rate hike expectations, risk assets face dual pressure; continue to control positions and reduce leverage.
Key tracking points: US Treasury yields, pace of foreign capital outflows, and whether there will be official reassurances or industry benefits to offset panic.
Brothers, is it time to bottom-fish SanDisk yet?#Báo cáo tài chính RocketLab trước thềm: Tiến triển của tên lửa Neutron ra sao? After the nonfarm payroll data was released, BTC fluctuated repeatedly: Is the market digesting employment or interest rate expectations?
The nonfarm payrolls are out, employment data is quite strong, yet BTC hasn't taken a clear direction. This chart looks frustrating; my judgment is that the market cares more about whether this employment report will keep high interest rates around longer.
In October, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, exceeding the average monthly increase over the past year; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Employment resilience is good for the economy, but for funds hoping for looser monetary policy, it's less comfortable. Without a clear weakening in employment, the Federal Reserve has more room to focus on inflation and maintain a tighter policy.
But this doesn't mean a rate hike is certain in December, nor should every BTC drop be blamed on the nonfarm data. The Fed last chose to keep rates unchanged, and there are still inflation data and official statements to come; if rate expectations ease, BTC might first experience a recovery phase.
Now I want to see how the price responds. On the downside, watch the 24-hour low near 74,888: if the pullback holds, there's a chance for a rebound; if it breaks and the bounce fails to recover, short-term risk of testing lower lows increases. On the upside, watch around 76,379; after a breakout, it needs to hold—just a wick through isn't enough to consider the recovery complete.
Conversely, if BTC holds above this level and rate expectations don't turn more hawkish, I will adjust my short-term cautious stance.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Everyone is focused on $BTC fluctuating around 76,000, but I'm more concerned about another number: the total stablecoin supply. According to DefiLlama's data this morning, the total stablecoin market is about $292.3 billion, down from $307.3 billion a month ago and the May peak of $315.5 billion, shrinking every day over the past 10 days. USDT dropped from $184.1 billion to $176.8 billion in a month, and $USDC fell from $73.8 billion to $70.6 billion. There's a detail that's easy to misinterpret: you often see "another 1 billion USDC minted," but Goldsky analyzed it and found that about 90% of USDC minting events are cross-chain transfers, not new money. From 10/27 to 11/3 this week, USDT and USDC had a net burn of $3.5 billion across 5 chains. My judgment: stablecoins are the "ammunition" on the market; the shrinking total means it's more of a stock game now, so rebounds are easily sold off. I'll wait until it stops declining for at least two consecutive weeks before taking any rebound seriously. The risk is also clear: a decline in total supply isn't all about funds leaving the market; it could also be institutions switching to tokenized government bonds or internal rebalancing within exchanges. Looking at this indicator alone can lead to misjudgment. What do you trust more when assessing liquidity: total stablecoin supply or ETF flows?The fear index has dropped to twenty-five — but that doesn't mean it's the bottom. Today (November 7), the Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index reports 25, labeled as "Extreme Fear," three points lower than yesterday's 28; it has been stuck in the fear zone for nearly eight days. Price-wise: OKX $BTC-USDT is currently around 76042 (price checked approximately at 2026-11-07 09:57 Asia/Shanghai), with a 24-hour low of about 74888 and a high of about 76379, basically hovering around seventy-six thousand all day, without "crashing" into a new pit along with the index. What’s more contradictory is the cross-asset comparison. Last Friday’s U.S. stock market close showed divergence: the Nasdaq rose about 1.09% driven by a rebound in chip stocks, while the Dow Jones continued to fall about 0.46%. The side with the worst sentiment (fear index) is still declining, but risk appetite has already caught a breath on the U.S. tech stock side — indicating that "Extreme Fear" is more of a lagging emotional reading, not evidence that spot buying is already lining up to enter. My own judgment in one sentence: treating the fear index dropping to twenty-five as a bottom-fishing signal is like mistaking an emotional thermometer for trading volume. What really matters is whether there are buyers willing to take the other side on the spot market. The price is hovering near the support zone between seventy-five thousand and seventy-six thousand; if it’s just short covering or weekend liquidity holding it up, once the market opens and risk appetite shrinks again, it’s easy to retest the lows. Only if spot trading volume and capital flow stabilize together over the next few trading days will this "Extreme Fear" be worth using as a contrarian reference, rather thanIf I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if an ETF shows net outflows but lacks a scale reference, first mark the funds as weak without directly concluding a bearish market. The biggest flaw after learning quantification is probably looking for the denominator when seeing numbers first 🤖
According to Farside Investors data, on the US trading day of November 6, the total net outflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs was about $1.9 million. I think this is a weak observation signal for $ETH, but it shouldn't be given too much weight when used alone to judge direction: the same outflow amount means different things relative to fund size; ETF fund flows reflect the buying and selling directions of traditional institutions and US stock investors, and cannot replace the entire market.
The advantage of this rule is that it is less influenced by headline-driven sentiment, but the downside is it may react slowly. My guess is that if the price also weakens simultaneously, the signal becomes more explanatory. Would you add the "outflow as a proportion of asset size" or the condition of "price weakening simultaneously"?Seeing "Coinbase Pro leaked 1366 BTC," my first reaction was also: big money is moving out. Then I casually checked the balance, and 872,500 BTC are still there. 1366 compared to 872,500 is like scooping a bucket of water from a swimming pool.
So should we be worried? Honestly, I'm not sure. The breaking news only tells me how much moved, not who withdrew it or where it went. Moving to a cold wallet means long-term optimism, moving to another exchange means preparing to sell, but on-chain it's exactly the same.
$BTC is the easiest to be misled by a single number like this, and the hardest part is admitting you can't tell the difference. My approach is simple: don't act yet, wait until tomorrow to see if more moves happen.A piece of data that is easily misread: Coinbase Pro outflowed 1,366 $BTC in the past 24 hours, worth 137 million USD, while the exchange's wallet still holds 872,500 coins.
First, put the scale in perspective. 1,366 coins in a pool of 872,500 is a very small portion. Looking at this alone, it neither constitutes a giant whale fleeing nor a tightening of chip supply. What really matters is the direction, not the size of the number.
The logic behind exchange balances is straightforward: coins on the platform can be sold at any time; when coins are withdrawn, there is less immediate selling pressure in the short term, so outflows are often interpreted as bullish. But this inference has a premise — you have to see who is withdrawing and where they are withdrawing to. Withdrawing to cold storage and withdrawing to another exchange to prepare for selling are two completely different things, and this data only gives the net amount, not the destination.
This is its limitation. Outflow is a result, not a cause. The same 1,366 coins could be institutional portfolio adjustment, custody relocation, or just a market maker changing venues. These three scenarios have completely different implications for $BTC, but on-chain they look exactly the same.
My judgment: treat this as a starting point for tracking, not a conclusion. Next, watch two things — whether the outflow continues for several days, and whether $ETH and $SOL balances on their respective exchanges are also decreasing simultaneously. If only Coinbase is moving, it is likely an individual platform event; if several exchanges move together, then it can be considered a market-level change.Shorts got crushed! 🔥
Short liquidations: $1.01 billion
Long liquidations: $130 million
$SOL's upper liquidity is almost 8 times that of the lower side!
If the price keeps rising, shorts might face another round of mass liquidations.
$BTC When I see this message, I think of a common question newcomers ask me: "If assets become tokens, can they be used as collateral?" 📌 This needs to be explained separately: tokenization is a product form; whether it can be transferred or integrated into protocols is another level of permission.
Dinari promises to launch dShares on the day of Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO), and U.S. investors can also participate; previously, Ondo's announced plan was for non-U.S. investors. However, Dinari's tokens in the U.S. are still non-transferable and cannot be used in DeFi.
My judgment is that this is more important as an entry point for U.S. investors' participation and should not be directly counted as new ammunition for DeFi. Expanding the covered population does not mean expanding on-chain use cases. If newcomers want to transfer it into lending protocols as collateral after participating on the same day, this path is blocked according to the restrictions in the material. The most common misunderstanding is equating "holding tokens" with "freely combining and using them." Where else do newcomers misunderstand the two permissions of transfer and collateral? Leave a comment to discuss.$PEPE LONG SETUP: Higher Lows Keep Building
PEPE bounced from 0.0000046290 and climbed to 0.0000052018, then pulled back to a higher low near 0.0000049400. Price now trades at 0.0000050273 and buyers are stepping back in. A break above 0.0000051000 opens a retest of 0.0000052018.
Setup stays valid while price holds above 0.0000049400. Risk warning: use a stop-loss and size carefully.
Trade on $PEPE
#USJobsBeatExpectations #BerkshireQ3CashOutlook
#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, latest developments to be revealed in the earnings report
Berkshire releases Q3 earnings today, massive cash movements are the biggest focus
On November 7 Beijing time, Berkshire Hathaway officially released its third-quarter earnings report. The market's core focus is on its long-standing high cash reserves—by the end of Q2, its cash holdings had already exceeded $360 billion. Changes in this figure during this quarter will directly reflect the latest capital allocation strategy of Berkshire under new CEO Abel.
Previously, Berkshire ended 14 consecutive quarters of net stock selling, had made large purchases of Google shares, and slightly advanced stock buybacks. The Google position entered at $350 is currently showing a nearly 20% unrealized loss, and whether to adjust holdings going forward has become a hot topic in the market. Additionally, insurance underwriting, energy💻My reaction to this message is: This code review only states "missed the launch window" but doesn't specify where the bottleneck was at the time. I'm more interested in the blocking issues rather than the degree of regret.
The input is: According to PANews on November 7, reporter Eleanor Terrett relayed that former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry said the crypto industry missed the best opportunity to push market structure legislation and establish a regulatory framework, and he also bears some responsibility.
My judgment: This is not sufficient grounds for a negative outlook on the entire industry; the real pressure might be on compliance development. The logic is, if regulatory boundaries remain unclear for a long time, teams find it difficult to define product scope; if rules change later, early investments might have to be redone. The term "best opportunity" lacks a comparative standard, which is a potential flaw in this judgment.
If I were to revise it, I would break down the review into controversial clauses, responsible parties, and conditions for progress, rather than just saying "missed it." Everyone, please help me review: For the development team, which should be prioritized for clarification, business boundaries or compliance pathways? BNB/USDT is holding steady around $695.82 after pulling back from its peak of $810.10. Look at past moves: BNB dropped to a strong support low of $537.20 in July before launching into a major rally to break above $800.
My best all-time prediction: BNB is completing a healthy retest. As long as key support near $660 holds, BNB will bounce back toward the $780-$810 zone and clear its path toward $1,000+ in the long run.
Do you think BNB will break $810 this month or retest lower support first? #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
ETH basically consolidated sideways overnight after the sell-off. Current price is about 2246, not far from the 24h high of around 2254, and it hasn't dipped below 2200, hovering just above the round number. F&G dropped from 28 to 25 (Extreme Fear).
The simulated position is still open; I didn't liquidate during the consolidation, nor did I add leverage betting on a rebound. The position remains, rhythm aside. Reminder: 2254 / 2246 / 2200 — intraday high, current price, round number support. These are observation points, not trade calls.
Grinding above 2200, what do you prefer: A) cut some to lock in rhythm first, or B) hold on to see if 2200 holds?
$ETH I see expressions like "all-weather" and usually break them down into two sides: holder experience vs. counterparty cost. One person feeling it's fast might just mean another person has taken on the waiting, so you can't directly say the entire chain has sped up.
In Ardoino's all-weather asset plan this time, the Hadron and RedStone protocols rely on approved buyers to provide financing for fast settlement; these buyers are willing to wait for cash. The arrangement supporting holders' nearly instant voluntary exit is still on the roadmap.
My judgment is that this is more like a division of liquidity, not waiting disappearing out of thin air. Holders may reduce waiting, while buyers have to bear the cost of advance funding. If this cost is factored into the price, then my guess is the key user experience will shift from "how fast" to "how much it costs to be fast." Which side are you on: accept some discount for speed, or keep the price and continue waiting for cash?"$ETH $BTC Sometimes when you see an indicator work correctly several times, you feel it is very useful and rely on it continuously, but then there will be a time it causes you a big loss, wiping out all your profits and even causing a loss.Don't panic, BTC market dominance at 59% indicates funds haven't fled
Many people feel panic when seeing the market pullback, but the current BTC market dominance remains around 59%, reflecting that on-exchange funds are prioritizing BTC as a safe haven and have not massively exited the crypto space.
It's important to distinguish a key point: an increase in market dominance often doesn't mean BTC is surging, but rather that altcoins are falling harder. When risk appetite declines, funds tend to abandon highly volatile small coins first and concentrate in the most liquid asset, Bitcoin, which is a typical risk-averse behavior. However, this doesn't mean BTC itself is free from selling pressure; spot ETFs still experience continuous outflows, but compared to altcoins, BTC endures less selling pressure.
⚠️ There is a cognitive misconception here: stable market dominance ≠ an immediate start of a bullish trend; it only indicates that funds are temporarily unwilling to move into altcoin sectors. For a trend reversal, two conditions must coincide: price volume must firmly hold above the 80,000 level, and ETF funds must flow back. Until then, the market remains in a consolidation and bottoming pattern.
The current environment is very unfavorable for altcoins. Projects like CORE, which have fundamental pressure, will continue to bleed during risk-off phases and are prone to independent gradual declines.
Market dominance is an important reference indicator but should not be blindly optimistic based on this data alone. Macro CPI expectations and leverage levels remain the core variables determining the subsequent market trend. Market Notes: The bearish candle is the result, pressure is the variable
BTC and ETH plunged simultaneously. What you really should focus on is not this single bearish candle, but the triple pressure behind it. US stocks in AI and semiconductors were sold off heavily, the market is recalculating data center capital expenditures and profits, and risk appetite for tech stocks is cooling; December rate hike expectations remain high, making funds more cautious; crypto itself also faces ETF outflows and previously accumulated leverage, weakening the foundation for a rebound.
Market data also reflects this: BTC once dropped nearly 5%, ETH fell over 5%, and about $428 million long positions were liquidated in a single hour. The decline is not all from active selling; forced liquidations are also accelerating.
Next, watch the US stock market open: tech stocks continue to weaken, BTC, ETH, and ZEC may remain under pressure; a halt in US stock declines does not mean an immediate reversal in crypto. My judgment is that the last rally had a clear short-covering component, so the trend reversal is not confirmed yet. Whether BTC can hold around $75,000 and whether spot buying volume can pick up again is more important than guessing a waterfall target. Don’t get excited by the drop, nor loosen risk controls because of a rebound. $BTC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Why can large trades still cause slippage even when liquidity is ample?
Many traders believe that as long as they choose cryptocurrencies with high trading volume and good liquidity, they can avoid slippage. But in reality, sufficient liquidity only reduces some execution risks and does not mean that orders of any size can be executed at the expected price.
The key point is: good overall market liquidity does not mean that at the exact moment and price range you place your order, there is enough quantity available to fill it.
First, market liquidity is not the same as liquidity at a single price level.
A trading pair may have a very high daily trading volume, but buy and sell orders in the order book are still distributed across different price levels. If the quantity at the best ask price is insufficient to fulfill your buy order, the remaining portion may be executed at higher prices.
Therefore, assessing liquidity requires not only looking at trading volume but also checking the current order book depth and price distribution.
Second, large orders may cause price impact.
When the order size is large relative to the available liquidity at a certain price range, executing the order itself can push the transaction price to change. Even if the market is generally active, large orders may consume multiple price levels, causing the average execution price to deviate from the initial quote.
Third, market volatility changes the liquidity you see when placing an order.
The order book is dynamic. The orders you see may be filled, canceled, or modified before your order reaches the matching engine. During rapid market fluctuations, price changes can be more frequent, making the actual execution outcome harder to predict. Last night, both the US stock market and the crypto market fell together, but blaming the news alone no longer explains it. In the previous major drops this year, once tariffs, war, or interest rate decisions were announced, a rebound followed—those were news-driven; this time it seems more like an internal buying problem. Exchange trading revenue dropped by 43%, indicating fewer participants; treasury companies spent three times more on stock buybacks than on buying crypto, meaning funds for buBreadth is green, sentiment is not. 56% of 25 liquid pairs closed up, yet Fear & Greed prints 25: Extreme Fear. 14 up, 10 down, 1 flat. No one is selling here, no one is buying either. I am waiting for the index to clear 30 before adding risk. Wrong if breadth falls under 40% while fear holds. Breadth or the index? $BTC $ETH $SOL #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.The moment the non-farm payroll data popped up last night, I was watching the market closely. BTC first surged near 76,100 then quickly pulled back to around 75,500. That move felt like the "exhaustion of good news" breath. When you see this upper shadow candle, do you first think about chasing longs or reducing positions? I didn’t rush to act; I first wanted to see what this wave was really trading. October’s non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, about 65,000 higher than market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, which is a bit too strong. The December rate hike bet was pushed up to 70-80%, and risk appetite was immediately suppressed by one notch. What’s more worth watching here is the rhythm, not the direction. After the data release, $BTC couldn’t hold above 76,000, indicating short-term funds had already priced in "strong employment = more hawkish"; 75,000 is the current key support, and if it breaks, stop-loss orders might deepen the pullback. $ETH fell below 2,300 and settled near 2,230, with a drop noticeably larger than BTC’s; altcoins’ elasticity in this kind of macro shock actually becomes a burden. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 28, showing sentiment is already cold but not yet fully cleared out. I tend to see this as a divergence phase within the trend—not a start, nor a full distribution yet. The bullish path is: $BTC holds 75,000, consolidates to digest rate hike expectations, and after sentiment recovers, tests the upside again; the bearish risk is: December rate hike odds continue to rise, $ETH can’t lead altcoins, and risk budgets shrink further. At times like this, position management is more important than guessing price points—don’t let a single upper shadow candle decide your rhythm for you Leverage doesn't give a second chance
After looking at Brother 800's bill, the most glaring thing isn't the loss amount, but the leverage multiple. BTC full position 19x long, opened at 77700, current price 75800, unrealized loss of $30,000, return rate -45%; ETH 17x long, opened at 2295, current price 2231, unrealized loss of $17,000, -47%; there's also a 20x BTC long position not fully shown. All three are high-leverage longs, all in the wrong direction.
The overall account is even more brutal: lost $1.06 million in 7 days, nearly 30-day win rate 10.52%, maximum drawdown 73.8%. A few days ago there was over 8 million RMB, now the account only has $300,000 left, equivalent to just over 2 million RMB. This drawdown speed is even harsher than the US stock market crash.
The most heartbreaking part is, he previously favored SOXS—3x short semiconductor, basically shorting before the US stock market crashed, probably couldn't withstand the rebound and cut losses, then turned around to go all-in high-leverage longs on BTC and ETH. BTC dropped from 81000 to 75000, getting slapped on both ends.
Core
Brother 800 isn't not trying hard, it's just the leverage is too brutal. 19x, 20x full positions, a 5% adverse move means liquidation; a $300,000 account holding $1.27 million BTC positions, this isn't trading, it's gambling with life. How long to earn $8 million, but losing it all takes only 7 days.401(k) opening does not equal a bull market button; don't misinterpret "rule advancement" as "funds have arrived." Will this wave of news really make long-term money rush into BTC immediately? Last night, I saw EBSA submit the final 1210-AC38 rule to OIRA for review. My first reaction was not excitement, but recalling the market's early agitation before every "positive policy landing." 401(k) is the largest retirement savings pool in the U.S., with a scale measured in trillions of dollars. The Department of Labor has been cautious about crypto assets in the past. Now that the rule is under White House review, it does mean the legal pathway is becoming clearer. But note, this is just a procedural milestone, not that the funding channel has opened yet. What concerns me more is the emotional mismatch: many will directly translate this news as "institutional long money is coming," then chase the highs. But the final rule still needs to complete review and publication, usually with a transition period, and actual allocation takes time. In the short term, it is more likely to reflect a warming of risk appetite rather than an increase in real capital. BTC and ETH will be the first to receive allocations, but the rhythm is more like emotions move first, prices verify later. The bullish side is that if the final version provides enough flexibility in allocation ratios, custody standards, and prudent assessments, the imagination space for long-term capital entry will open, which also reinforces the institutional narrative for ETH. The bearish risk lies in the details: unclear ratio caps, strict custody thresholds, and prolonged effective dates could turn the "positive" into a one-time emotional pulse, making altcoins more prone to hype and quick retreat. I will watch two signals: first, the finalNonfarm payrolls 165,000, expected 65,000, two and a half times.
Unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, hourly wages up 3.1%, and the previous two months were revised up by 84,000.
December rate hike bets surged directly to 80%.
By the old logic, the Nasdaq should have fallen.
But the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21% — it had just dropped 12.25% yesterday.
The data itself hasn’t failed: the bears had already sold off what should have fallen the day before, and the bad news actually became a reason to cover positions.
The market is no longer pricing in rate hikes, but rather "who will concede first."
Will you dare to chase this rebound on Monday?
☀️ Uncle’s Morning Report 11.07
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 When the $75,000 wall was pushed down, I stared at the order book for a long time. The activity was indeed lively, but the support underneath was so thin it made me uneasy. Have you noticed that the more everyone shouts "once in four years" on such nights, the easier it is to overlook what the structure itself is actually saying? The Binance spot buy wall of over $20 million was pushed from 75,000 down below 74,800. The previously mentioned spot buying point was really touched tonight. On the surface, it looks like "the opportunity has arrived," but what I want to say is another layer: the wall being eaten away does not mean someone is absorbing it below; more often, it’s just orders being withdrawn or penetrated, and the real transaction depth actually becomes shallower. This is the detail I care about most tonight. From the perspective of the volatility phase, the market is not really trading "cheaply" now, but rather "who breaks first." After the buy wall disappears, short-term volatility is amplified, stop-losses and leveraged liquidations are more easily triggered consecutively, and price swings near key levels become more intense. The bullish logic is: if the price can stand back above 74,800 with volume, it means this downward pressure was just shaking out floating positions, risk appetite will quickly recover, and after BTC stabilizes, ETH and altcoins will have room to rotate. Conversely, if it can’t hold and the rebound lacks volume, it means the disappearance of this wall exposes real selling pressure, sentiment will slide from "bottom-fishing" to "wait and see," and capital preference will shift toward defense. My own feeling is that tonight feels more like a volatility test rather than a clean bottom confirmation. The excitement is on the surface, the structure is underneath, and the two are not aligned $BTC spot buying has already started entering the market, but the perpetual contract market is heavily shorting.
This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin has been unable to rebound for a long time.
However, if spot buying continues to strengthen, shorts may be forced to liquidate en masse, which could trigger a fierce surge with a large bullish candle (God Candle).At this time last week, everyone was sharing screenshots of their profits in the square. Today at this time, they are sharing their position costs.
From 81,000 down to 74,888, in six trading days, over 6,300 dollars lost.
But I’m more focused on another number: the Fear and Greed Index dropped directly from 50 to 25. The price only fell 7.8%, but the sentiment dropped a full level. This shows that what’s falling is confidence, the structure hasn’t been broken.
My judgment: this round is washing out leverage and sentiment; BTC’s major cycle hasn’t been fundamentally damaged yet. The truly critical level is around 73,000.
The current position is very clear: 74,000 to 75,000 is the floor for this wave, 77,500 to 78,000 is the ceiling. In between, chasing highs or selling lows is easily stopped out, not an opportunity.
#BTC #ETH #FearAndGreedIndex #Futures #LiveTrading$BTC I've never quite understood: a coin spends its own money to buy itself back, then throws it into a black hole to burn it—what's the point?
Hyperliquid did exactly that yesterday, repurchasing and burning 21,040 HYPE tokens within 24 hours at an average price of $78.90, burning a total of $1.66 million. The platform's earnings didn't go into anyone's pocket; instead, they went back to the market to buy their own tokens and burn them.
There are indeed benefits: fewer HYPE tokens in circulation means tighter supply, making the price more likely to rise. But there's a very practical issue: the money spent on burning comes from transaction fees, which only exist if people trade. When the market cools down, what’s generous today might not be sustainable tomorrow.
So don't assume it's stable just because you see "burned $1.66 million."Many people are still waiting for Dogecoin to hit $1.
Let's do the math: to reach $1, it needs to achieve a market cap of over 150 billion, which is more than ten times the current value. Moreover, it has no total supply cap and keeps increasing its supply every year, continuously diluting its value.
Back when memes were at their wildest and Elon Musk was fully promoting it, the highest it reached was only 0.73. Unless the next super bull market happens and the entire crypto bubble and traffic shift over, the difficulty is extremely high.Seeing "participate on the IPO day," many people easily mistake it as a benefit of asset tokenization. Dinari promises to launch dShares on the Anthropic IPO day, allowing U.S. investors to participate; previously, Ondo announced plans targeting non-U.S. investors. This is still a promise, not yet implemented.
On the other hand, I think the real competitive point of this news is U.S. market access, not tokenization speed. One reason is that, although both revolve around Anthropic, their target audiences differ. If both plans are realized, then competition must be viewed based on investors' locations, not just who launches earlier.
Another reason is that Dinari's tokens in the U.S. are still non-transferable and cannot be used in DeFi; expanded access does not equal expanded on-chain utility. I would see this as a trial of the issuance channel, and next, watch how the promise is implemented, without rushing to add drama to the entire DeFi sector.One coin spent 1.66 million USD in a day to buy itself back, then burned it. Hyperliquid did exactly this in the past 24 hours: cumulatively repurchased and burned 21,040 $HYPE at an average price of 78.90 USD.
The numbers are not parallel. 21,040 multiplied by 78.90 equals 1.66 million USD. This money is the platform's real income, not newly issued tokens, not from the foundation's inventory, but money taken to buy on the market.
The mechanism is the key. Repurchase and burn do two things simultaneously: place real buy orders on the order book to support the price, and permanently remove these tokens from circulation. Most deflation is just locking tokens or promises; the coins still exist but are temporarily inactive. Burning means the coins disappear from the ledger, permanently cutting the supply curve.
What does this mean? Supply shrinks unilaterally, and as long as demand does not significantly shrink, the price's upward elasticity increases. But the key for models like $HYPE is not the burn amount on a single day, but whether it can be sustained—the burn money comes from transaction fees, i.e., platform activity. When activity rises, burning accelerates; when it falls, burning slows immediately.
So what really matters is not today's 1.66 million, but the burn amount at the same time next week. If it stays at this level for several consecutive weeks, it means stable income and structural deflation; if it drops after one week, today's figure is more like a nice number.
$BTC and $ETH of this scale won't use burning to control supply; this logic only works for small market cap, high cash flow protocols.U.S. stocks had a rough week. On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.1% to close at 24,579, still in a correction zone, down 3.4% for the week; the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, down 2.7% for the week; the Dow Jones fell another 0.5%. Thursday's sharp drop was due to elections—10 states held 41 local votes, with only one not siding against data center restrictions.
Friday's rebound was supported by chips, with Micron $MU up 5.1% and Nvidia $NVDA up 2.8%. Dragging behind was Microsoft, with reports saying it plans to use fewer new cloud providers, causing its stock to fall 1%, shaking confidence in AI computing power.
$OPENAI CFO Friar came out to steady nerves, saying the midterm elections didn’t fundamentally change anything; data center investments continue, demand is real, and funding will keep coming. CNBC confirmed that $11 billion has been raised so far in this round, with possibly another $9 billion in the coming weeks. She still looks to 2027 for IPOs, while Anthropic aims to get ahead with a Nasdaq listing targeted for mid-November.
An off-market highlight: Airbnb earned $3.16 per share in Q3, with revenue up 19% to $4.9 billion, and its stock rose 11.7% in one day.
Next week, eyes are on CoreWeave’s earnings report; its stock rose 6.3% on Friday. If Microsoft’s reduced use of new cloud providers is confirmed by its guidance, this rebound will be for nothing; orders and capital expenditures need to hold up for chip stocks to recover. No matter how tough Friar talks, losing 40 out of 41 ballot measures can’t be changed, and Texas approvals remain the real hurdle. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Bitcoin stayed flat around 75,900 overnight, and the Nasdaq's 1.1% rebound didn't lift it. The Treasury just kicked MEXC out of the US financial system, the market lacks momentum, and RAY, ARB, and ZEC each have their own issues.
$RAY near 1.79, a DEX supported by US stock tokens 📈
Up 6.2% in 24 hours, bouncing about 20% from Wednesday's low of 1.48. According to Blockworks data, 39% of Raydium's October swap revenue came from tokenized US stocks, memes only accounted for 32%, and Q3 net revenue rose 264% quarter-over-quarter.
$ARB near 0.166, watching frozen funds
Up 5.7% in 24 hours. Binance proposed on November 5 that ArbitrumDAO release 8,426 frozen ETH and about 74.56 million ARB; the vote process will take over seven weeks. Another approximately 92.65 million tokens will unlock on November 16.
$ZEC near 1,320, upgrade landed without a dump
Up 5.1% in 24 hours. NU7 activated on Friday, block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of fees are reserved for future miners. The anticipated positive effect was realized, but the market didn't react.
ZEC has the strongest fundamentals; pushing further to 1,375 will depend on Bitcoin's mood. RAY's story is the freshest, but 1.78 is pressing against the 4-hour 200 MA; if it can't break through, it's just a rebound. ARB is the weakest, with more tokens unlocking than frozen; the longer the DAO delays, the harder it is to sustain this gain. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 74888 formed a pin bar, but I still don't dare to catch the falling knife. Last night I stared at the 75200 line until midnight, but it still broke — Nonfarm payrolls came out with an increase of 165,000, more than double the expected 60,000, and the probability of a December rate hike jumped directly to 77%, $BTC plunged to 74888 overnight, the floor broke as soon as it was touched.
My inclination is: it broke but then recovered, this pin bar has some significance. After touching 74888, it pulled back above 75800 within an hour, and in the morning it was still hovering around 75900; on the US stock side, the Nasdaq rebounded 1.09%, AMD surged 11% in one go, the panic seems to have eased.
On the downside, we must acknowledge: a recovery doesn't mean it's all clear. Nonfarm is so hot, the 77% rate hike probability is a solid bearish factor; Nasdaq rebounded, but BTC didn't follow, hovering around 75900 all night without holding firm. If it really breaks 74888, the next stop is 73000, and by then, even calling it a fake drop would be stubborn.
So this morning, a straightforward question: do you think the 74888 pin bar is the bottom, and dare to catch the falling knife near 75000 betting it will rebound to 80000 first, or do you think breaking 75200 means it's broken, and acting now is just giving money to the bears, waiting to break 74888 before making a move?
For record-keeping only, not investment advice
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Scumbag's observation on Anthropic, IPO (2)
Anthropic
Q1: Revenue about $4.7 billion, the exact figure in S-1 is $4.731 billion.
Q2: Revenue $11.555 billion, year-over-year growth about 1,368%. The revised version discloses Q2 operating profit of $974 million, adjusted operating profit of $2.2 billion, adjusted profit margin 19%.
Q3: Revenue $16.96 billion, year-over-year growth 1,127%, quarter-over-quarter growth 47%, net loss $23.3 billion. Operating profit turned from Q2 profit to a $567 million loss, adjusted operating profit $2.5 billion, adjusted profit margin dropped to 15%.
Scumbag thinks the large loss in Q3 is largely due to spending big money renting SpaceX's computing power, but the revenue effect can only be seen in Q4.
On-chain valuation has dropped quite a bit again, currently at 1.37 trillion.
If the revenue at the end of '26, i.e., December, can reach $8.5 billion, then Scumbag thinks a 15~20x price-to-sales ratio is still relatively reasonable. That would be a valuation of 1.53~2.04 trillion.
The current on-chain valuation still has some attractiveness #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 The key point is not how much cash there is, but that cash is starting to decrease: Q1 peak was about $397 billion, Q2 dropped to about $365 billion, Q3 is expected to be about $358 billion; Q2 net stock purchases were about $20 billion, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling, and acquisitions include Taylor Morrison and an investment in Alphabet. Abel has shifted from "hoarding cash" to "active allocation," which is the most practical good news — money is starting to be used effectively, benefiting long-term shareholders.
Impact: If Q3 cash declines in an orderly manner and is directed toward high-quality assets, it will support the "Abel premium," and the stock price will be resilient; the decline in tech stocks also makes Berkshire a safe haven and may provide opportunities for favorable exits. Risks include weak insurance underwriting profits, EPS expected to drop about 5.6%, and unrealized losses on Alphabet investment; if cash declines too quickly or relies on high-priced buybacks to prop up the market, there will be concerns about "spending money just to spend money." Conclusion: The good news lies in allocation discipline, not in single-quarter profits.This market is a bit crazy! $BTC current short liquidations are about 5 times that of longs.
Below $74K–$73K, there is only a small chunk of long liquidation liquidity left; besides that, the market's biggest pain point seems to have shifted upwards.
It's possible the price might dip below $75K again to sweep liquidity, but I tend to think this is just the final shakeout.
What’s really worth looking forward to might be the subsequent breakout upwards, harvesting the large amount of liquidity accumulated above.#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments Berkshire no longer just hoards cash: After peaking at $397 billion, Abel starts "spending money"
Berkshire's massive cash reserves are reaching a turning point.
In Q1 2026, Berkshire's cash reserves hit a historic peak of about $397 billion, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of net stock sales. But by Q2, cash dropped to $365.5 billion, consuming about $31.5 billion in a single quarter—still the second highest in history, but the narrative has shifted from "why not spend money" to "how to start spending money."Last night, I was just one click away from opening a short position. But before placing the order, I decided to check spot market activity. What I found completely changed my perspective. Here's the breakdown: 📊 Spot vs. Futures Trading Volume - $BTC : $9.67B spot vs. $104.005B futures (9.3% spot) - $ETH : $4.116B spot vs. $59.878B futures (6.9% spot) - $SOL : $929M spot vs. $8.707B futures (10.7% spot) - $ZEC: $718M spot vs. $10.267B futures (7.0% spot) Futures volume is roughly 10 times highe#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 It's not the "end of the hoarding money era," but rather the capital allocation rhythm of the Abel era has changed. Cash decreased from 397.4 billion to 365.5 billion, but 365.5 billion is still a historical high — indicating it's not a full-scale chase for gains, but selective buying: Google, own stock, overall acquisitions, all are specific price/value opportunities.Last night, the US stock market finally stopped falling and rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising about 1.1%, the S&P 500 up about 0.3%, but the Dow Jones still closed lower. The Nasdaq had just plunged 5.52% the day before, so this rebound looks more like a recovery after a concentrated sell-off in tech stocks, and it does not yet indicate a full restoration of risk appetite. For BTC and ETH, the most important focus is the US nonfarm payroll data released last night and whether institutional funds are willing to re-enter the market. ① Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the Fed's easing expectations may continue to be under pressure. At 21:30 Beijing time last night, the US announced 165,000 new nonfarm jobs in October, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, showing stronger employment performance than market expectations. Steady employment indicates that the US economy still has resilience, but it may also leave the Fed with less reason to cut rates quickly. If the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen as a result, BTC and ETH may face pressure; conversely, if the market focuses more on a soft landing for the economy, risk assets may also benefit. ② Tech stocks rebounded, but US Treasury yields did not show a significant simultaneous decline. Last night, chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD rebounded, driving the Nasdaq higher. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.8%. My understanding is that funds are willing to buy back some tech stocks, but this does not mean the liquidity environment has improved. Especially since BTC is increasingly influenced by institutional funds, the sustained high US Treasury yields may continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. ③ ETF funds are the real issue BTC needs to face. On November 5, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 It's not the "end of the hoarding money era," but rather the capital allocation rhythm of the Abel era has changed. Cash decreased from 397.4 billion to 365.5 billion, but 365.5 billion is still a historical high — indicating it's not a full-scale chase for gains, but selective buying: Google, own stock, overall acquisitions, all are specific price/value opportunities.BTC current price is around 76K, short-term downward momentum is insufficient, a rebound is possible but reversal is not yet confirmed.
On the four-hour chart: after a long lower shadow bearish candle followed by a doji, a second doji is brewing, indicating that the dip is being supported and bulls and bears are in a stalemate. If the second doji closes, the short-term bottoming signal strengthens. There is large buy support at 76K, but volume is not accumulating, so bearish pressure could still break through.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December has risen above 70%. BTC did not continue to crash, which is a signal that bearish news is not causing a drop. If there is no new bearish news next week, a rebound is highly likely.
Upside targets are 77.3K, 78K, and further 79.8K; downside 75K–75.5K is the critical line—if not broken, no major issues. Currently, do not chase shorts. #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC $ZEC $HYPE @OKX中文 @OKX星球 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 首先我们直入主题，美国国会参众两院换届绝非简单的党派轮替，而是对美伊四十年来地缘博弈底层逻辑的重大重构。 行政层面的“灰色妥协”空间被立法铁幕彻底封死，中东火药桶的导火索再度被拉紧。 对于我们交易员而言，这不仅是一场地缘新闻扰动，更是一场涵盖“美联储利率天花板”、“全球流动性潮汐”、“加密资产属性阶级分化”与“OFAC链上制裁审查”的宏观风暴。 美国国会参众两院换届不仅是党派席位的轮替，更是美伊四十年来地缘博弈底层逻辑的重大转折点 首先我为什么会怎么说呢？为什么这将美伊底层博弈逻辑的重大改变呢？ 近年来，美伊局势一直处于微妙的“灰色默契”。美国白宫为了压制国内汽油价格通胀，在过去数年间，在对伊原油制裁执行层面采取了一定程度的“战略性睁一眼闭一眼”，以达到减缓自家石油价格膨胀，这种不存在于谈判桌上的“灰色协议”，致伊朗原油日出口量一度重返 150 万桶以上，大部分流向亚洲独立炼厂。 然而，新一届国会的交接与权力格局重塑，彻底终结了这一行政默契： 为什么这一届国会的交易，这种“灰色默契”彻底被撕碎了呢？ 主要原因权力的交接！两个班底不同的政策！不同的目标#BerkshireQ3CashOutlook 9:30, poured a glass of water and came back to check the market: BTC is still hovering around 76,000, 3 hours ago it was 76,020, now 75,925.
$BTC: Moved less than $100 in three hours
Current price 75,924.6, 24h down 0.05%. 24h high 76,379, low 74,888, lost 75,200 overnight but recovered. Long-short ratio 3.04, same as this morning. Open interest 2.63 billion U. In the past 8 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 1.142 million, shorts 1.564 million, shorts took more hits.
$ETH: Still hovering around 2,240, shorts took another 780,000
Current price 2,243.17, 24h up 0.52%. 24h high 2,254, low 2,210. Long-short ratio 3.56, lower than this morning's 3.63. Open interest 1.536 billion U. In the past 3 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 323,000, shorts 782,000, shorts got cleaned out.
$SOL: The best performer among the three, longs took the most hits
Current price 90.36, 24h up 0.75%, the highest among the three, holding above 90. Long-short ratio 3.74, highest among the three. Open interest 315 million U. In the past 10 hours, 100 liquidations: longs 800,000, shorts 293,000, longs bleeding the most.
Commentary: Price hasn't moved, long-short ratio hasn't changed, liquidations haven't stopped.
Summary: Sideways trading is not stabilization, the direction hasn't emerged. Chasing longs in the morning is easy to catch the baton. Is 76,000 a bottom test or a sharpening knife?
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元