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Thailand has launched an app called WORPT, which allows foreign tourists to convert USDT and USDC into Thai Baht, then pay by scanning local Thai PromptPay QR codes.
The developers are Waan Exchange and Wipay, with Tether as one of the partners. The project operates within the Thai SEC's TouristDigiPay regulatory sandbox.
One detail is easy to overlook. Stablecoins are not paid directly to merchants. They are first converted into Thai Baht within the app, then processed through PromptPay. Merchants receive Thai Baht, and the acquiring system has no connection to cryptocurrency.
Sandbox limits: no more than 100,000 Thai Baht per transaction, and no more than 550,000 Thai Baht per month.
The design intention is very clear. The first real use case for stablecoins found in Thailand is currency exchange for tourists. At the local payment layer, it has not yet touched $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ATOM market is still pricing ATOM with "infinite inflation," but its underlying logic has already shifted.
In August 2026, Cosmos Hub officially switched to a fee buyback and burn model, and Osmosis terminated OSMO inflation with a 91% voting rate, also canceling new ATOM minting. The supply side changed from "only increasing" to "decreasing," marking a structural turning point, not a short-term sentiment.
On the demand side, IBC v2 is linking Solana and all EVMs, while the global RWA tokenization market is expected to expand to $418.6 billion by 2026—ATOM’s role is to be the trustless settlement layer for cross-chain flow of these assets.
The price is stuck in the critical decision zone of 1.60–1.63; once it breaks above 1.85 with volume, the path to 2.20 will open. Coupled with an 18%+ staking annualized yield, the cost of waiting is gradually being offset by returns.
The suspense has never been about the price itself, but whether ATOM near 1.6 will still be waiting for you when the market finally understands the deflation + RWA play.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Just saw a sudden sharp pull-up, and immediately someone in the group changed the target to six figures, while just moments ago they were still waiting for sixty thousand. Do you have these kinds of voices around you that switch scripts in a second? When I was watching the market at that moment, my first reaction wasn’t excitement, but annoyance. As soon as the price moves, the narrative shifts accordingly. Yesterday they were still telling you to wait for the deep waters, today they’re already drawing higher targets. On the surface, it looks like emotional hype, but what you really need to watch is sector strength and weakness: who’s leading the rally, who’s just being pulled up briefly, and who’s left unsupported after a spike. This gap is far more important than slogans. Whether BTC breaks a certain round number is just a trigger point. What the market is actually trading is whether risk appetite has returned, whether leverage dares to increase, and whether anyone is willing to catch the dip. If only the top assets strengthen, and ETH and altcoins can’t keep up, it’s more like an emotional repair, not a full recovery. Conversely, if volume holds during the pullback and there’s relay support within sectors, that’s a real sign of absorption. The more bullish path is: after a breakout, don’t rush to chase highs; wait for a pullback confirmation and let strong sectors prove their resilience. The potential risk is that everyone mistakes "seeing a rise" for "the trend is set," prematurely pricing in rate cuts, incremental funds, and new highs expectations, only to be shaken out by a single retracement. More subtly, the hotter the price action, the easier it is to overlook sector divergence—surface-level red everywhere, but real support is thin. My own rhythm is not to compete in volume calls, but to first look at strength rankings and pullback quality. You can watch the hype, but position sizing should be slow. Are you more concerned about the breakout moment or the pullback moment? Time will reward patience Today there are signs of capital inflow, but it is still far from confirming a reversal. BTC spot and futures both show net inflows on the 4-hour timeframe, ETH's leveraged capital replenishment is stronger, while SOL shows a divergence pattern with spot absorbing and futures continuing to withdraw.
$BTC
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $111 million, futures net inflow of $36.18 million. Over 24 hours, spot still has a net inflow of $179 million, but futures have turned to a net outflow of $92.74 million. More importantly, the 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures has expanded to $7.83 billion. Short-term buying has returned somewhat, but the mid-term deleveraging process is not over.
$ETH
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $51.64 million, futures net inflow as high as $221 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, from a 30-day perspective, spot has a net outflow of $3.77 billion, and futures net outflow reaches $8.29 billion. The short-term replenishment is clearly stronger than BTC, but the mid-term capital structure remains weak.
$SOL
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $8.66 million, futures net inflow of $4.53 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures have a net outflow of $58.94 million. The 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures is $2.17 billion.
Going forward, the key focus is whether the rebound can attract sustained incremental capital. If it is only a stock game, there is still a risk of a pullback after the rally. This time I'm siding with ETH first. BTC really broke through 80,000 last night, hitting a low of 79,505 on OKX, while ETH just brushed 2,297 and is now hovering above 2,340.
The contradiction is that money and price are moving in opposite directions. October isn't over yet, but the US spot ETH ETF has already seen a net outflow of over a billion dollars (about 1.18 billion as of 10/23), making it the worst month this year; at this rate of bleeding, the price should have collapsed long ago, but 2,300 just won't break.
The Federal Reserve decision is at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow. They just raised 25 basis points in September, and about 90% of CME bets that there will be no change this time. I won't add positions before the shoe drops, using 2,300 as the dividing line.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 48-Hour Liquidation Pain Points Overview! Concentrated Chip Zones for Both Bulls and Bears
📊 Bullish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Bullish pain point at 79966.32, -1.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 63.154 million U
✅ ETH: Bullish pain point at 2280.09, -3.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 33.7978 million U
✅ SOL: Bullish pain point at 99.09, -2.43% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 7.8466 million U
📊 Bearish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Current price 80856.3, bearish pain point at 81561.16, +0.87% away, corresponding liquidation volume 66.8784 million U
✅ ETH: Current price 2353.14, bearish pain point at 2375.77, +0.96% away, corresponding liquidation volume 22.805 million U
✅ SOL: Current price 101.56, bearish pain point at 102.12, +0.56% away, corresponding liquidation volume 6.4109 million U
Core Insight
The current market is stuck between the bullish and bearish pain points. The upper bearish liquidation zone is very close; a slight upward move can trigger a concentrated short squeeze. The lower bullish pain point is also nearby; a slight dip will wash out bullish chips. The liquidation capital accumulated on both sides is substantial, making it easy for short-term whipsaws and dual-direction harvesting. The market shows clear consolidation and shakeout patterns, with a relatively high risk for chasing positions. Saw a pretty cold piece of news: the world's fourth largest gold hub HKGX is going to use Chainlink's CCIP for cross-chain gold token XGZ. Usually, no one pays attention to this kind of news, but I think it's worth pondering more than most of the wild price surge or plunge news.
The tokenization of gold has been pushed since BlackRock started BUIDL last year. What's the bottleneck? It's that different chains don't recognize each other's accounts. For physical assets like gold, the custodian says it exists, so it exists, but if tokens are issued on Ethereum and then again on another chain, how do you prevent double-spending? Oracles solve this problem. Chainlink's current role is increasingly like financial infrastructure, not just hype.
Here's a contrast. When this news came out, LINK's price barely moved, hovering around 11.5. The market currently doesn't price in the narrative at all; everyone's focused on BTC hitting 80,000. When RWA really picks up volume someday, looking back at this kind of news might not be cheap.
I don't hold LINK and don't plan to get in now; BTC hasn't even chosen a direction yet. But I will keep watching this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 [The U.S. Government Sold Anthropic Shares Too Early, Missing Out on $3.3 Billion]
Last year, the U.S. government sold 4.45 million shares of $ANTHROPIC, confiscated from the FTX case, for $627 million. Based on the market's rumored valuation of $1.5 trillion, these shares would now be worth about $3.94 billion, representing a book loss of over $3.3 billion. Selling too early by six times is even more thrilling than retail investors chasing highs and lows.
The proceeds were ultimately used to repay FTX creditors, while the shares were repurchased by Anthropic and then resold to nine investors. Anthropic has now filed IPO registration documents, planning to use $ANT as its Nasdaq ticker. The valuation imagination for AI companies certainly makes that past deal look especially cheap.
However, the $1.5 trillion remains a market-expected valuation, not the final offering price; since the shares were sold at the financing price back then, it cannot be simply concluded that the government made a poor decision. For FTX creditors, the $627 million was the actual realized repayment, and how much was missed afterward is another matter.92.8% of people are focused on the "no rate hike" at 2:00 as good news, but the real cut is at 2:30. CME gives a 92.8% chance of no change in October, Reuters surveyed 100 economists all betting on December, and CME shows about a 74.8% chance of a 25bp hike in December. The news is "no change," but the market is betting on "there's more to come." The most likely path: prices rise first at 2:00, then fall back at 2:30 when the Fed turns hawkish. BTC short-term trading range is 82,000–82,500, testing that before returning to fluctuate around 80,000; but if it's read as "December is the last hike," the decline might actually attract buyers. Don't make impulsive decisions on the spot; pre-load both hawkish and dovish scenarios into your algorithmic orders, simulate the market first, and let the strategy execute at 2:30 instead of chasing the candlesticks.SOL basically didn't keep up with this rebound; I tend to think it hasn't recovered yet.
In the past 24 hours, the low was 99.17, briefly breaking the 100 integer level, now climbing back near 101. During the same period, BTC rose from 80097 to 80630, ETH from 2321 to 2343, SOL from 100.73 to 101, basically standing still. The funding rate is 0.002%, essentially zero, and the open interest of 3.2 billion USD is flat—no one is adding positions, nor is anyone dumping.
After crossing the 100 level back and forth twice, it’s no longer support but a divergence line. My view is conservative: among this round of mainstream coin rebounds, SOL is the weakest leg. Whoever is holding or sneaking ahead, on-chain data is more stubborn than my words.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Watching the three positions on the screen, the short positions on DOGE and SOL were caught by a short-term rebound, with floating losses close to 29% and 17% respectively, relying entirely on the 20x isolated margin BTC long position to support the net value with an 18% floating profit. This kind of long-short struggle before the FOMC announcement is not surprising, as funds are all contracting their battle lines.
DOGE is currently priced around 0.0787, not far from my forced liquidation line at 0.0808. On the news front, the Dogecoin Foundation has just terminated the exclusive trademark license with House of Doge, demanding the other party pay $400,000 and change their name. This kind of ecological-level tug-of-war is unlikely to provide price support in the short term. SOL is also under pressure; the perpetual contract trading share has dropped from 17% to 6%, the Meme coin proportion has shrunk significantly, and ETFs have seen net outflows of about $50 million for two consecutive weeks. BTC has returned above $81,000, reaching a high of $81,300, but the FOMC is very likely to keep rates unchanged. The real variable lies in the post-meeting tone on December policy, with dense selling pressure still near the $81,000 level.
As long as BTC's long base remains stable, the floating losses on altcoins are still within an acceptable range. The stop-loss line is already locked in, waiting for the decision to be made before responding.
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DOGE Foundation terminates exclusive license, SOL transformation under pressure, BTC awaits FOMC guidance #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 SanDisk long position is currently in profit, with the FY27Q1 earnings report after the market tomorrow.
Options market pricing: single-day volatility after earnings ±9.87%. The actual next-day volatility for the past four earnings reports was -6.81%, +8.25%, +6.85%, +15.31%.
My stop-loss level just falls within the range that the options market considers "there is a 50% chance it will reach." 1200 is the lower hedge wall marked by the options structure. But on a night priced at ±9.87%, a reasonable position is not the same as a safe position. The put/call skew steepened before earnings, indicating someone is buying protection against downside.
The fundamentals have no cracks. The cracks are on the "expectation" side.
TrendForce: Q4 NAND contract prices will rise another 15%-20%, enterprise SSDs up 23%-28%. Citi says supply tightness will continue until 2028, with a target price of $2100.
But consensus revenue is already 46.61. The company's own guidance upper limit is 46. Wedbush raised its earnings forecast to 49.04 before earnings—raising profit expectations but maintaining the $2000 target price unchanged. Better profits are accepted; "stock price should be higher" has not yet been confirmed.
In the past four quarters, SanDisk has significantly exceeded guidance each time. Is "meeting guidance" enough in the face of the inertia of "always exceeding it"?
I don't guess tomorrow's earnings numbers. But the data structure is clear:
Fundamentals are accelerating, and acceleration has been priced in. The options market prices earnings as a ±9.87% event, and my stop-loss falls within that. The $1258 cost is not enough against this thickness.
I don't guess tops or bottoms. But on earnings night, position size should reflect tolerance for "asymmetric volatility," not conviction in NAND's long-term tight supply.
What do you think? Will SanDisk "significantly beat expectations and push shorts back," or "meet expectations and let the options market realize that 9.87%"?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SNDK #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 92.8% of people are focused on the Fed's "no rate hike" at 2:00 AM tomorrow, calling it bullish, but the real knife comes at 2:30.
CME gives a 92.8% chance of no change in October, Reuters surveyed 100 economists all betting on December, and CME shows about a 74.8% chance of a 25bp hike in December. The news is "no change," but the market is betting "there's more to come."
Most likely path: rise first at 2:00, then fall back at 2:30 when Waller turns hawkish. BTC short-term range between 82,000–82,500, test that level then return to around 80,000 to consolidate;
But if it's read as "December is the last time," then the drop will attract buyers. Don't make snap decisions on the spot; pre-load both hawkish and dovish scenarios into algorithmic orders, run simulations first, and let the strategy execute at 2:30 instead of chasing the K-line.Brothers, I'm a PhD, let's break down the funding rate chart
The current funding rate is 0.010%, positive. From the end of September to now, about a month, look — most of the time the bars are red (positive funding rate), with only a few days showing green (negative funding rate). What does this mean? It means that over the past month, longs have consistently outnumbered shorts, and longs have been subsidizing shorts.
Here's the key point: over this month, Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 to 79,000, a 5,000-point drop, but the funding rate remained positive throughout. Have you ever seen this? The price has been falling for a month, yet longs not only haven't left but are increasing. This is a classic case of "buying the dip"; retail investors are stubbornly holding long positions above 80,000, with leverage piling up.
Now look at those few green bars — early October, mid-October, October 22. Each time a negative funding rate appeared, the price bounced briefly. Negative funding rates indicate too many shorts, with longs collecting fees, which tends to lead to a rebound.
Currently, the funding rate has surged back to a high of 0.010%, with long leverage maxed out. I think if the FOMC turns hawkish tomorrow night, these longs who are subsidizing shorts will be the fuel — once the price breaks below 79,000, cascading liquidations of longs will accelerate the decline. Conversely, if the FOMC is dovish, short stop-losses might trigger a bounce, but the upside will be limited.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $PEPE was pumped this morning. As of 10:00 AM Beijing time on October 28, OKX spot PEPE/USDT is quoted at 0.000004922, up about 14.3% in 24h, with an intraday high of 0.00000495; CoinGecko shows a 24h trading volume of approximately $378 million and a market cap of about $2.04 billion, breaking into the top five trending searches.
The main news is from Justin Sun: Arkham data shows that two wallets associated with him withdrew 72 trillion and 46.5 trillion PEPE from Poloniex on October 17 and 26 respectively, holding about $51 million worth, accounting for approximately 2.82% of total supply, making him the largest individual holder outside exchanges. Within one hour this morning, shorts on the three major exchanges were liquidated for about $330,000, squeezing the bears.
My view: This wave is driven by whale narratives and short squeezes; the project itself has no new developments. The key is the subsequent moves of Sun's addresses—if he continues to accumulate, there will be a story to tell; if he transfers coins to exchanges, sentiment will quickly reverse. 0.000005 is a psychological level; whether it can hold depends on volume. First, about the position: I'm still empty-handed. I didn't dare to catch this wave of Ethereum, and I haven't recovered the long position I cut yesterday.
Ethereum is now at 2,355, up 1.4% in one day. Compared to the big brother, the ETH/BTC ratio only rose 0.3%—in other words, it's stronger than Bitcoin, but only slightly, not the kind of strength that leads the charge forward. The 2,400 level above is a round number resistance, which hasn't been touched these past two days.
My view: Ethereum's rise is supported by the overall market, not because it's particularly strong on its own. The variable here is: if the ETH/BTC ratio can keep rising for several days, then there really is capital switching into Ethereum, and that would be a different story.
Position reminder: Don't just heavy-load a single coin because it’s rising; the risk of a single coin going wrong is much higher than the overall market.
So, for this slightly stronger but not leading Ethereum, would you dare to hold it alone? Polymarket's US version quietly launched a new feature last night: 5-minute crypto price movement predictions, featuring only four coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
This selection of four coins is quite telling. Prediction markets used to settle daily or weekly, but now they've compressed it into 5-minute rounds, effectively institutionalizing short-term speculation. SOL making it into this quartet is no accident; in terms of volatility and retail participation, the platform treats it as a standard.
I casually checked the current price; SOL is hovering around 101, with a 24-hour low of 99.2, having recovered quite neatly. Today is also a Federal Reserve decision day, and having this kind of 5-minute market on a decision day is like a casino within a casino.
My view: this is a double-edged sword for SOL. The attention is genuinely coming, but these newcomers don’t hold positions—they only bet on direction, so volatility will be amplified by sentiment. The platform knows better than us which coin’s volatility is most valuable, and that statement alone carries weight.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Looking at news about listed companies holding crypto, I usually first check whether the funds can be circulated, then look at the coin price. The macro environment determines the tightness of financing, while whether assets can be accessed at any time determines if a company has room to maneuver; these two aspects cannot be viewed separately.
According to The Block, Datavault AI's stock price plummeted nearly 50%, and the company stated that starting June 2026, it will be unable to withdraw the $BTC stored with Biconomy. This crypto came from an equity transaction in September 2025: Scilex agreed to purchase its shares and warrants with BTC worth $150 million, with the related BTC recorded in wallets via off-chain transfers.
My speculation is that if the financing environment tightens, the market will place more emphasis on available cash; if the held crypto cannot be accessed, then even if the coin price rises, it may not alleviate the company's funding pressure. For large capital, this affects the assessment of asset quality, not just the judgment of coin price.
Another layer of impact is financing feedback: if asset restrictions increase uncertainty, equity investors may demand higher risk compensation, and subsequent corporate financing may become more difficult. However, inability to withdraw does not equal confirmed loss, and the two should not be conflated.
Therefore, I tend to see this as an alarm for listed companies' crypto asset management rather than a direct bearish signal for the entire Bitcoin market. When judging the funding pressure of such companies, which macro factor do people care about most now: interest rates, US dollar liquidity, or stock market risk appetite? SK Hynix's Q3 sales reached 104.62 trillion KRW, and they even declared that by 2026 the total shareholder return scale will reach 100 trillion. This wave of prosperity in memory directly slaps the numbers in your face, no objections accepted.
SNDK contracts are now hovering around 1310, up nearly 3% in 24 hours, with the low point at 1254 pulled up and never looked back. This round is really not about hype; HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs are solid shipments.
I used to worry that the memory cycle had peaked, but with these results, I admit I was wrong—the peak hasn't arrived yet. But I won't chase it at this level; I'll wait for a pullback.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📌 $BTC news: A diversified allocation ETF plans to allocate 2% to Bitcoin, ranging from 1% to 5%, with institutional positions gradually increasing.
But I don't follow the market: the price rose 1.23% in 24 hours, yet the open interest dropped 1.3%, indicating shorts are closing positions, not new money entering. Such a rebound is likely to top out.
I'm watching the $81,009 level, which has been tested 11 times on the upside, pulled back 7 times, broken through 3 times, and once with no reaction. Only a break above gives a chance; failure means consolidation.
Do you think it will first sweep the stop losses below, or break through directly? #BTCETFFlowSwings #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood relies on market predictions and options to drive growth, with its crypto business weak; growth is constrained by market sentiment and regulatory restrictions, making its sustainability questionable.There are 870,000 coins waiting to be sold on top of Bitcoin.
Bitfinex counted: around 82,500, with 874,000 coins trapped. Once the price rises back, they won't lose anymore and will sell at any time.
What's more troublesome is that fewer people are taking over.
Yesterday, for the US ETF, only BlackRock was buying; the others were all zero. A few days ago, $770 million was withdrawn.
On one side, 870,000 coins are waiting to be sold; on the other, only one buyer remains.
My view:
When it rises to 82,500, don't rush to buy.
There are many people standing there wanting to break even and leave; only after they finish selling will there be the next wave.$BTC just touched back near 80800. The position data doesn't match up, which is a bit surprising. The price has been rising since last night, but the 24-hour open interest actually dropped by two points. The funding rate stayed at the baseline reading without moving. There are no new long buy orders on the exchange; this round of price increase wasn't driven by active buying.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, after breaking below the previous low this morning, it was pulled back. Just now, a bullish candle retraced the morning's decline. However, the overall volume shrank during the rebound. Although the price touched back to the high, the trading volume didn't pick up. The upward momentum is weak, more like a short squeeze.
Switching to the 4-hour level, the current price near 81,000 is exactly the swing high from a few days ago. Several 4-hour EMAs are sloping downward, showing a clear downtrend. The price is not only pressed down by the moving averages on top but also faces a major horizontal resistance ahead.
In the short term, I lean towards bearish. The price is capped by this major 4-hour resistance, and without incremental funds, it's hard to break through. The trend is more likely to reverse downward for a pullback.
$ETH $SOL #美加稳定币监管明确收益边界 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
US stock market news analysis: AI faith is back again, but Meta itself has already stumbled
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading, up 1.18%, and the S&P 500 up 0.60%
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.60%, with all 30 component stocks in the green. AMD rose 5.45%, Broadcom up 4%, Intel up 3.61%, Micron up 2.77%. But Meta, the top in trading volume, closed down 1.64%, with $31.9 billion in turnover.
Price changes and trading volume:
Money is flowing into chips.
AMD traded $11.4 billion, Micron $21.1 billion, Nvidia $18.4 billion. Storage and optical communications continue to surge, Western Digital up nearly 7%, Lumentum up 5.88%. But Meta’s $25 billion common stock issuance subscription was oversubscribed 5 times, yet the stock price fell. To translate: institutions are buying, retail investors are selling, or someone is using good news to unload shares.
News:
Two things are supporting AI sentiment. First, the afterglow of Anthropic’s IPO remains, with Broadcom leading a $63 billion financing round to help Anthropic buy chips.
Second, the easing of US-Iran tensions has pushed oil prices below $100, easing inflation expectations.
AI hardware is rising, AI financing is shifting, but Meta’s trend says one thing: money is not unlimited. Tonight’s Microsoft and Google earnings reports will be the real test; good performance is expected, but weak guidance will be a cut.I imagined a job interview: Solana shows up on Wall Street wearing a suit, with a resume that says "Good at creating hype." The interviewer says: We're hiring for financial infrastructure, not for party atmosphere coordinators. 😂
According to Bloomberg, Solana is trying to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to financial applications like stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption on Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, as well as Visa and Fiserv, have already started related operations on the network. My judgment is: the most important aspect of this shift is not the change in client list, but that the evaluation criteria will become stricter, which will have a more direct impact on infrastructure builders.
Speculative trading values hype, but payment services must withstand everyday use. If institutional business expands, then network stability and predictability of transaction costs may become more important than how hyped the network is on any given day. This is my speculation and the direction I prefer to focus on.
Tokenized assets face another challenge: being transferable on-chain does not mean off-chain rights are clear. What the assets correspond to, how to redeem them, and who is responsible in case of disputes all determine whether the business can go far. I would not directly interpret "institutions have started business" as "the transformation has already succeeded."
If you were to audit for an institution, would you first check network stability or asset redemption rules? Choose one, and join the discussion in the comments: For this interview, would you have Solana take the data center test first or the legal test first?#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ robinhood chain, Robinhood's blockchain, where users trade stock tokens. From October 6 to 12, decentralized exchange trading volume dropped by 30% to $6.35 billion. However, from September 30 to October 12, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance rose to $1.058 billion, with the lending protocol Morpho holding $486.8 million in outstanding loans on the chain. Therefore, lending has now become a significant use case, not just trading. That week, borrowers on Morpho paid about $417,000 in interest and liquidation bonuses, but Morpho recorded zero protocol revenue.Tin Ripple mở rộng stablecoin RLUSD trong hệ sinh thái Robinhood ngày 27/10/2026 đáng chú ý vì nó hướng đến mở rộng ứng dụng thực tế, không chỉ dừng ở câu chuyện đầu cơ giá $XRP Nếu Robinhood triển khai XRP Ledger cho các khoản thanh toán giữa tổ chức, đây có thể là bước tiến giúp mạng lưới Ripple tiếp cận thêm hoạt động thanh toán tài chính. Tuy nhiên, cần phân biệt rõ: RLUSD là stablecoin neo theo USD, còn XRP là tài sản số riêng biệt. Việc RLUSD được mở rộng không đồng nghĩa nhu cầu mua $XRP💻 I want to break down this according to code review: Myriad confirmed that the internal admin wallet was compromised, and the attacker manipulated the results of 10 prediction markets on October 26 to claim rewards. The platform revoked these markets, and affected users will receive automatic refunds.
The input is a wallet that manages both partial market creation and adjudication, with logic designed for automation efficiency. My judgment: the requirement is reasonable, but handing over both market creation and result adjudication to the same key means the permission boundary is too broad. Once the wallet is compromised, the impact could extend from configuration directly to reward settlement; for ordinary users, besides judging events, they also have to bear the risk of adjudication permissions being stolen.
If it were me, I would prioritize separating creation and adjudication permissions, add independent review for critical adjudications, and then consider automation deployment. This is just my engineering inference; whether it can be implemented depends on the architecture. What I want to look at next is how permissions are separated and how abnormal results are intercepted, not just whether refunds are received.Just saw Core Trader 57 shorting XRP with 8x leverage, nominal position about $84,700. My first reaction was: how bearish must they be? 🤔
But after thinking about it, I understand that beginners should focus on risk exposure and not directly interpret a large order as a bearish signal. Not sure if that's right. Nominal amount does not equal invested principal; a large amount doesn't prove the judgment is more accurate. If the price rises 5% against the position, with 8x leverage and rough initial margin calculation, the loss would be about 40%, not including fees. Beyond direction, how much adverse volatility one can withstand is also critical.
I've been in the space for a year and still haven't figured out how to distinguish directional bets from hedges. Just looking at this opening record isn't enough. I'd like to ask experienced traders: when checking such short positions, which holdings from the same address would you prioritize to determine if it's a hedge?#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Three points to judge:
The money is truly earned, not growth bought. While revenue doubled, the operating profit margin rose from 20.7% to 35.6%, operating profit from 2.8 billion to 8.8 billion. Relying on subsidies or low-price orders would push margins down, but here it’s the opposite — this is the most valuable part of the 82% growth.
But cash is indeed tight. Single quarter capex 44.9 billion (+100%), free cash flow −5.86 billion, negative for the first time ever; to cover this, issued 70 billion USD in stock and debt, and stopped buybacks. Investment no longer self-sustained by operating cash flow.
Visibility is long, but concentration is high. Backlog 514 billion, +380% year-over-year, more than half to be recognized within 24 months — this is evidence of demand. But the nearly 4x year-over-year order increase mainly relies on a few very large long-term contracts, so a change in one order has a big impact; don’t extrapolate linearly. A large buy order can change sentiment but does not necessarily improve the odds for followers. PANews cites Onchain Lens monitoring: after 27 days of silence, a whale bought 123,055 $HYPE from Wintermute, approximately $10.02 million.
I see this as a somewhat bullish demand signal, but not yet evidence of a trend. The purchase indicates there is capital willing to take on the position, providing a bit more support for the possibility of sustained demand; however, 27 days of inactivity does not mean that after this purchase there will be continued buying, and the transaction from Wintermute cannot be directly interpreted as ongoing buying pressure in the open market.
In my estimation, if subsequent demand continues and the price has not already priced in expectations, this news deserves more weight; if sentiment pushes the price up first but new demand does not follow, the odds for chasing the news might actually worsen. I will continue to watch whether demand can sustain and will not let a whale's buy order endorse my own expectations.$ETH saw a net outflow of 1.08 billion in October. Do you still dare to chase this rebound?
Just finished reviewing the capital flow. To be honest: I don't dare to see this rebound as a reversal for now.
⚠️ News: Funds are withdrawing, sentiment is cold
The most direct selling pressure: ETH spot ETF net outflow in October has exceeded 1.08 billion USD, marking the largest single-month outflow since 2026. The funds that flowed in during September have almost been completely withdrawn. Institutions are continuously redeeming, which is the most tangible supply pressing down on the price.
Another drag: Testnet upgrade delayed, lacking new narrative catalysts in the short term, limiting rebound expectations; futures active trading has also shifted to seller dominance, which corroborates the price structure.
My own feeling: The short-term bearish pattern remains unchanged. 2,370 is the first filter for the rebound, 2,400 is the key test for whether bulls and bears switch hands, and 2,300 is the short-term bottom line. Until ETH firmly reclaims 2,400, I will treat the rebound as an oversold correction, not a reversal. First, remove all the exterior wall scaffolding: Samsung's third-quarter operating profit surged year-on-year, not a celebration banner, but the muffled sound emitted when a prestressed pile in the foundation of intelligent computing power storage was driven to the design elevation. The profit statement is just an elevation drawing; what really needs to be examined is the load-bearing system of the memory cycle.
Preliminary data is like on-site concrete test blocks, only proving that this pour layer meets strength standards; the complete financial report on October 29 is the structural acceptance, where every beam and column must be checked for hollowing. The shipment rhythm of the fourth-generation high-bandwidth storage is like the climbing formwork of the core tube, memory pricing is the locked price list of rebar and concrete, and the profit margins of each business are the reinforcement efficiency after floor slab openings. If there is any weak weld in these three, profit growth will degrade from the main structure to just a decorative surface.
The $xMETA US stock token is more like a corridor: one end anchored in intelligent computing capital expenditure, the other in risk appetite. Samsung is the main beam of storage supply; if the main beam bends, the corridor will creak. What I want to see is whether the yield rebar joints are continuous, whether the inventory turnover formwork is removed timely, and whether the capital expenditure scaffolding is extended to the next construction phase. If the shipment ramp-up of the fourth-generation high-bandwidth storage is slower than the price increase, it means honeycomb roughness is buried in the load-bearing wall; if pricing is firm and shipments are synchronized, cash flow will rebound after prestressed tensioning.
I don't look at the year-on-year curves thrown out in press releases; those are just facade renderings. Completion data must be unfolded: high-bandwidth storage yield, memory prices, profit contributions of each business, inventory days, capital expenditure. Any misalignment at these nodes will be like a post-cast strip not poured according to curing age, with cracks crawling from the basement to the roof.
Before the fourth-generation high-bandwidth storage passes structural acceptance, the linkage of $xMETA is just curtain wall hoisting, not the main structure topping out. #samsungq3profitoutlookI checked the details this morning: on the 27th, only 305.81 BTC spot were bought, all from a single entity, no other movements.
The day before was the same pattern: 1376.78 BTC, again only one entity active, with volume shrinking by nearly 80% in one day.
What is this about? 🔍
Simply put, the details lay out the real money clearly: which entity bought how many coins, not just the total number to gloss over.
What impact does this have? 📊
First, volume shrank, the main force didn’t follow.
Second, only one entity moves each day, and it’s different entities each time, this is sporadic probing, not collective action.
Third, the foundation hasn’t collapsed, with a total of 721,800 BTC still held; a few hundred coins in a single day is just a drop in the bucket, no sign of a run.
The market matches this: BTC is grinding above 80,000, ETH follows suit, SOL holds above 100, ZEC surged nearly 6% leading the pack. The overall network long-short ratio is balanced at 50-50, liquidations at 149 million, no heavy bets. The FOMC is still in session, the decision comes early Thursday morning, everyone is waiting.
Here’s my take. Long term, I’m not worried, the foundation of over 700,000 BTC remains, this daily volume won’t shake the base.
Short term, I’m not chasing either; until I see a second entity follow, I treat this as probing, not a signal to enter.
Conditions are clear: after the decision, if multiple entities buy together for two consecutive days with volume returning above a thousand coins, I’ll acknowledge it; if it turns negative in a day and multiple entities sell together, I’ll reduce my position first.
What do you think? Wait to see if a second entity follows after the decision, or think this volume is negligible?The pointer on the barometer has traced a typical mid-latitude frontal passage curve over the past five trading days. From the 19th to the 21st, a warm and moist airflow from institutional sources lifted nearly 1.075 billion units of saturated water vapor in one go, creating a peak in water vapor flux—that should have been a decent precipitation event. But immediately after, the cold front rapidly cut in within 48 hours, draining 774 million units of precipitation, lowering the cloud base quickly, and sharply tightening the pressure gradient. On the 26th, a single jet stream from the BlackRock direction brought a weak echo of 1.103 billion, barely stopping two days of declining water, but the strength of this ridge was really weak, and the cumulative humidity balance over five trading days still remained in the negative zone.
I have to say, this is a typical "post-severe convection residual low pressure." The surface warm and moist transport seems to have resumed, but dry cold air still underlies the near-surface layer, and the inversion layer has not been completely broken. Bitcoin prices linger near the 80,000 mark; in meteorology, this is called "low-pressure center stagnation"—the system itself hasn't dissipated, but the lifting conditions are insufficient, and cumulonimbus clouds never quite build up. The moisture supply curve in the ETF channel has turned upward, but it is still an entire order of magnitude short of forming effective precipitation convergence.
Looking further upstream, the pressure pattern on the U.S. stock market indicator side also does not show a clear pre-trough southwest airflow signal. The entire mesoscale environmental field remains in a tug-of-war between a weak ridge and a shortwave trough, and the flux density of institutional buying is insufficient to support a continuous warming.
Right now, everyone is focused on the sea surface temperature anomaly area of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting—that is the key thermal forcing determining the frontogenesis position in the next 72 hours. The numerical model divergence lies in whether the warm and moist transport from the institutional side can reorganize a cyclonic wave or will be hastily dispersed under the suppression of the southward cold air. Bitcoin's humidity field has been below the climatological mean for several consecutive time steps, and the isobars are dense and flat, indicating no obvious acceleration in the wind field.
My professional judgment points to only one conclusion: the low-pressure center has not yet moved eastward, the cold and warm air masses are still entangled, and the convergence zone refuses to close. #btcetfflowswings SK Hynix released its Q3 earnings report today, and I made a chart that even beginners can understand.
The top left section shows how much profit was made this quarter. It sold $78.3 billion worth of goods, with the core business earning $62.4 billion. For every $100 sold, it earned $80. Memory is truly profitable now.
But when looking at financial reports, it’s not just about how much was earned; you have to see if it’s better than what everyone expected, which is the section on the right. Analysts had predicted the core business would earn $57.6 billion, but the actual was 8% higher, a significant beat.
Looking down at the third section, the final net profit was actually less than half, only $29.8 billion, compared to $70.3 billion last quarter. The main losses came from two accounts: investments held depreciated, with Kioxia’s stock price dropping 40% in Q3, plus the Korean won appreciated, so the dollars held converted to less. Most of these are accounting losses and unrelated to memory sales.
Next to it, the fourth section shows the money distributed to shareholders, about $75 billion this year. It sounds like a lot, but $30 billion was already announced in August, and the new amount is about $45 billion, roughly matching what Korean media reported the day before.
So the bottom right section shows the stock price didn’t rise much more than the overall market. As of 9:45 AM Beijing time, Hynix rose 8.7%, the entire Korean stock market rose 6.2%, and Samsung rose 9.1%. Most of the good news had already been anticipated.
Whether the earnings report is good or not depends on the number everyone expected beforehand. I will continue to post details from the earnings call here once I finish organizing them.Brothers, take a look at the open interest chart
Current BTC open interest is 31,000 BTC, with a nominal value of 2.5 billion USD. From September 28 to now, over the past month, open interest has climbed from 27,000 to 32,000, showing an overall upward trend.
The key is to look at a contradiction: over this month, BTC dropped from 84,000 to 79,000, a 5,000-point drop, but open interest did not decrease; instead, it increased. This is called "increasing open interest on a decline," which means what? It means shorts are continuously adding positions, the more it falls, the more bearish they get. Long positions that are stuck haven't exited either; they are holding on. Both long and short leverage are stacking up.
Looking at the last two days, after open interest surged to a high of 32,000, it slightly retreated to 31,000, while the price bounced from 79,000 to 81,000. This indicates some shorts closed their positions during the rebound, taking profits and exiting.
I believe the current high open interest means leverage is maxed out. When the FOMC announcement comes tomorrow night, the direction—whether up or down—will be amplified: if it rises, short stops will be triggered and liquidated; if it falls, long stops will be triggered and the market will be dumped. This explains why recent volatility has been so intense; the higher the open interest stacks, the sharper the spikes.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today it was judged that the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States) sued Utah, and Reuters also revealed that it is investigating Polymarket. Putting these two pieces of news together, the meaning is very clear: the CFTC is fighting for operational space for prediction markets under federal regulation, and it is also investigating whether platforms comply with the rules. I see this as a positive signal for the industry, but the lawsuit has not yet reached a final result, and compliance requirements have not been relaxed. In terms of funds, BTC saw a single-day recovery of inflows, while ETH and SOL did not keep up, so it is not yet a comprehensive strengthening. 1. ETF: BTC recovered inflows, with buying still concentrated in IBIT October 26 spot ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) complete data: * BTC: net inflow of $110.3 million, almost all from IBIT. * ETH: net outflow of $88.6 million. * SOL: net outflow of $8.2 million. BTC ended two consecutive days of net outflows, which is a good change. But with only one day turning positive and subscriptions mainly relying on IBIT, I would not yet conclude that funds have stabilized and returned. The redemption pressure on ETH and SOL has not ended either. 2. Prediction markets: CFTC is fighting for regulatory authority, and platform compliance is still being investigated The CFTC officially sued Utah and said it has taken legal action against nine other states. It claims that event contracts fall under federal commodity derivatives regulation, and state governments cannot arbitrarily restrict registered trading venues. The core of the dispute remains whether these products should be regulated federally or be subject to state gambling laws. The court's rulingWatching the old street being repaired before, I gradually understood one thing: no matter how new the road is, it’s very important which doorstep it leads to. After retiring and learning about digital assets, I often use this measure to evaluate information.
At the Ripple Swell conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that digital assets can consolidate the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, pointing out that over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the dollar, and issuers often hold U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves. I think these words carry significant weight; they remind me that while technology changes, currency dependencies may not necessarily change.
My judgment is that the more popular stablecoins become, the more we need to clearly see the dependencies behind them. On one end, being dollar-denominated means using a digital wallet does not equate to escaping the dollar; on the other end, if reserve assets rely on growth to drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, then according to his logic, U.S. financing might also benefit. To young friends, I want to add one more thing: even if the tools are easy to use, don’t skip the effort to check reserves and redemption conditions.$CORE "Long awaited and finally released," but after being silent for more than ten days, this tweet is not good news; instead, it is the CORE project's "official death notice" and "soft exit declaration." This announcement, published by the official Twitter (X), uses extremely grandiose language to package a brutally harsh truth: the core team (founders) have officially abandoned ship, completely dumping the mess onto the community. Combining all the information you've tracked over the past half year, let's dissect the "facade" of this tweet sentence by sentence: 💥 Core bombshell: founders officially "pass the buck" and run away The most critical sentence in the tweet is: "As part of this transition, the original contributors such as Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo are gradually stepping down from their roles in the DAO." · This confirms our previous deductions. Rich Rines (former Coinbase executive) and Brendon Sedo, these two core bigwigs who once stood for CORE and represented the project's face, have officially announced their departure. · Where did they go? You checked before, Rich Rines had long gone to Z Protocol (a new project) as co-founder. They took away funds worth tens of billions, and now they even find "nominal association" troublesome, simply saying goodbye to you. 🎭 Extreme rhetoric packaging: turning "the tree falls, the monkeys scatter" into "decentralization" The entire tweet talks about "decentralization," "community ownership," and "the community taking on more management responsibilities." Stop obsessing over the K-line charts. I just checked last night's spot ETF data, and honestly, I feel worried for the brothers blindly rushing in. The moves from these traditional institutional funds are completely different from what we retail investors think!
First, look at the $BTC ETF: yesterday saw a net inflow of $3.05 million. Don't think it's small—remember, there were continuous large outflows in the past few days, with over $70 million dumped on the 22nd. This slight inflow now indicates traditional funds are tentatively buying at the 80,000 level, but they're still very cautious and haven't made big moves.
Next, the $ETH ETF barely had an inflow of $14,200 yesterday. But looking at the previous days, on the 22nd and 26th, there were outflows of three to four million. Big institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock are clearly still watching and haven't decisively stepped in to support the price.
The worst is the $SOL ETF, which had an outflow of $190,000 yesterday. It has been steadily bleeding out in recent days. Institutional funds are not buying at all. The 100 mark is now being held up only by retail investors heavily leveraged in contracts. If spot inflows don't come, once it breaks down, a chain of liquidations will be ugly.
To sum up, the current ETF market shows BTC stabilizing, ETH on the sidelines, and SOL continuing to bleed out. Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing with leverage in contracts, while institutions watch coldly from outside the ETF market. Don't open positions blindly. Wait until institutions put real money in with volume before making a move. For now, just observe.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🚨 Michael Burry's warning about the real estate market seems increasingly worth paying attention to.
The latest data shows that foreclosure pressure on U.S. homes is rising:
Foreclosure inventory up 37% year-over-year
Completed foreclosure sales up 15%
Loans overdue by more than 90 days up 21% year-over-year
A few months ago, Burry already indicated that the U.S. real estate market was starting to loosen, and home prices might already be falling.
If these pressures continue to expand, the real estate market could face greater challenges.
But note, rising foreclosure data does not necessarily mean a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.
What deserves more attention next are employment, credit quality, and home price trends.
Macroeconomic risks cannot be ignored, and risk assets like $BTC may also be affected by changes in liquidity.Market Watch: Detailed Differentiation Between Gains and Losses
$BEAT reported at 0.07229, up 8.5% in 24 hours, showing a truly outstanding price performance. However, the contract data doesn't quite align — open interest by coin count shrank about 2.4% within a six-hour window. The price increase is valid, but the contract volume hasn't kept pace, indicating this rally may not be driven by new positions. The strength is acknowledged, but the narrative of "contracts continuously entering" currently lacks evidence; existing data cannot clarify which type of traders are driving the momentum.
$ETH reported at 2313.97, down 0.9% in 24 hours. It briefly rebounded above 2330 during the session, then retreated back near the starting point, erasing the earlier gain from 2318. The recovery process remains volatile; a single push up doesn't guarantee stability. The short-term smoothness is discounted; the rebound is worth noting, but the pullback must also be accounted for — we can't just pick the favorable half.
$XRP reported at 1.294, nearly flat in 24 hours. The absolute price didn't move, but measured in ETH it rose about 0.8% — the difference comes from the comparison benchmark, not from its own strength. This relative advantage can be credited, but only for the current window; it doesn't amount to a strong rally, nor is there a need to fabricate an additional capital story to support it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 2. My subjective judgment: What will be the final Normalized EPS recorded by Seeking Alpha?
Given the premise that the current net profit is significantly lower than the original estimate:
👉 I estimate the actual Normalized EPS to be in the range of $6.00–$6.22, closer to around $6.10.
3. Probability of > $6.25 (purely subjective probability, for speculative reference only, not an exact model)
✅ Probability of greater than $6.25 (Yes): about 20%
❌ Probability of ≤ $6.25 (No): about 80%
Why not fifty-fifty?
Positive factors (supporting surpassing $6.25):
1. Revenue and operating profit exceed expectations, HBM structure is very good;
2. Exchange rates and adjustments (items excluded in normalized) may raise adjusted profit.
Negative factors (suppressing, also the core reason I assign a low probability):
1. Original net profit of 39.78 trillion KRW, significantly lower than the previously assumed nearly 60 trillion by the market, a much weaker base;
2. Many analysts’ baseline expectations are themselves 6.15/6.25, already hovering near the threshold;
3. The rule requires strictly greater than 6.25, equality does not count as Yes, further compressing the Yes space. Looking at the risk-reward structure of this, the key is who the new demand belongs to, not who shouts the loudest. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated at the Ripple Swell conference that digital assets can consolidate the global dominance of the U.S. dollar; over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the dollar, and issuers often hold U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves.
My judgment: This increases the likelihood that dollar stablecoins will be promoted as financial infrastructure, and the actual implementation of payments is more worthy of study than conceptual premiums. My speculation is that if stablecoins can truly open new global markets, settlement services may gain new demand, and the demand for U.S. Treasury reserves may also grow with adoption. But increased usage does not mean the related tokens will receive revenue; there is still a value capture mechanism in between.
For me, only with real usage and clear attribution of revenue is it worth continuing to calculate expectations; with only policy narratives, no matter how tempting the odds are, it is difficult to evaluate. Looking at the stablecoin sector, do people value the success rate of payment implementation more, or the odds of the related asset's imagination space?I look at the on-chain positions of stocks mapped to assets like this, and I usually place them within the framework of liquidity and risk appetite first, rather than directly guessing whether the company is good or bad. This time, Core Trader 31 opened a new $NVDA short position, using 20x leverage, with a nominal value of about $100,000.
My inclination is: this looks more like a tactical bet that needs to be observed for follow-up, not enough to indicate a broad shift to defense by large funds. The amount can indicate the risk exposure of this trade, but it cannot vote for the entire market; and looking at a single wallet alone, it’s impossible to tell if it’s hedging long positions elsewhere.
If the macro liquidity outlook tightens and the risk funds are willing to take decreases, then the valuation of high-expectation assets may come under pressure, and this short position would have the wind at its back. This is just my inference; the material does not provide evidence that macro conditions have already changed. Conversely, if risk appetite remains strong, then 20x leverage will make waiting expensive: a price move of about 5% in the opposite direction could theoretically wipe out an amount equivalent to the initial margin, and actual forced liquidation is also affected by margin models and other conditions.
I wouldn’t interpret high leverage as greater conviction; I’m more interested in observing whether broader, sustained defensive behavior emerges afterward. For me, a single address is a clue; whether capital behavior can resonate broadly is the key to judging risk appetite.On Tuesday, US stocks and BTC rebounded together, led by technology and chips, while oil prices fell for two consecutive days, and AI sentiment also recovered a bit. After Monday's close, Bank of America, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone raised $63 billion, buying Broadcom chips and network equipment and leasing them to Anthropic, finally giving the market a glimpse of hope for AI fundraising.
But inflationary pressure remains: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still near 5%, and although oil prices have retreated, regular gasoline in the US only dropped by a little over one cent per week, while highway diesel rose to $6.35 per gallon, more than $2.6 higher than last year, making it difficult to reduce freight and business costs.
The Federal Reserve meeting is early Thursday morning; the market expects no rate hike, but high oil prices and soaring inflation make it hard for Chair Powell to be dovish, and even without a rate hike, there could be a heavy hit; core PCE on Thursday night is likely to rise, making a rate hike in December almost inevitable.
$BTC remains strong, back above 80,000. Those worried about confidence before the rate decision and PCE this week and want to be cautious can trade below 78,000. If BTC can hold steady above 80,000 after this week, then switch to a more aggressive stance.Three days of narrow-range grinding, the real answer comes early Thursday morning⏳
$BTC is hovering around 80,000, ETH around 2300, SOL near 101, back and forth for the third day, the range narrowing more and more, the market feels muted🔇. Don’t really fall asleep though, money never rests.
$ETH current price 2327, with 10.86 million short orders hanging at 2345 above, just one breath away; BTC above 80,000, 24.1 million held down at 81,400. Not empty below either: ETH has a string of long orders at 2245, 2240, 2222, BTC is supported layer by layer at 79,200, 79,000, 78,200. Capped above, supported below, price stuck in the middle, neither bulls nor bears showing their cards first🃏.
This quietness feels more like holding breath. No visible volatility on the surface, but both sides are gathering strength, waiting for the Fed to give direction at 2 AM Thursday🧭.
Retail investors fear this moment the most: either guessing direction and opening positions early, or thinking “three days sideways, it won’t drop” and heavily betting on one side. If it really won’t drop, why are those tens of millions of long orders below piling up thicker? Once broken through, it could trigger a chain reaction, queueing downwards💥.
The longer the sideways, the stronger the move once direction emerges. Before it lands, don’t shoot all your bullets for either side first🔋. #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 3E; Brokers previously downgraded Q3 profit forecasts mainly because the certification of Nvidia's new generation chips was delayed, dragging down the shipment pace of HBM4.
2. HBM4 itself is a super high gross margin product; once volume scales up, its elasticity is very strong. The unit price of HBM4 is significantly higher than HBM3E, with a gross margin of 70%–80%, making it SK Hynix's most profitable product; the company guides that by Q4 2026, HBM4 shipments and revenue scale will surpass HBM3E, with Q4 being the turning point for HBM4's profit contribution.
3. Q3 profits mainly rely on existing HBM3E stock plus server DDR5 price increases; HBM4 is more driven by expected valuation rather than current performance.
II. Positive factors: The long-term profit logic of HBM4
- Performance and orders: HBM4 meets Nvidia's new generation GPU demands and has signed long-term supply agreements with multiple leading AI customers, locking in capacity for the next 2–3 years. The product commands a clear premium, with significant price increase potential compared to HBM3E.
- Yield improvement: Management states that HBM4 yield is already close to the mature HBM3E. As capacity ramps up, unit manufacturing costs continue to decline, and once scaled, profit margins will further improve.
- Complete product lineup: HBM4E samples have been delivered, and the next-generation IHBM self-developed packaging is progressing simultaneously, maintaining HBM technology barriers and consolidating share advantages in Nvidia's supply chain. Bitcoin's security budget is being gradually torn apart by reality
In October 2026, Bitcoin's price hovered around $80,000, while the total network hashrate climbed back above 1 ZH/s (approximately 1070–1090 EH/s). On the surface, the network looks "very secure." But the miners' ledgers are looking increasingly grim.
How tough is it for miners right now?
The current hash price has returned to the $36–37 per PH/day range. Difficulty was just adjusted up by 5.92% on October 16, reaching 140.58T, and the next adjustment (expected around October 29) will likely increase by another 5–6.5%. Transaction fees? They have long accounted for about 0.5% of miners' total revenue, almost negligible.
In plain terms: miners' daily earnings almost entirely depend on the 3.125 BTC block subsidy. After deducting electricity, maintenance, and equipment depreciation, many older mining rigs are hovering around breakeven. Some publicly listed mining companies have shifted their facilities and power to AI computing, while small and medium miners are gritting their teeth to hold on. Although hashrate has returned, the profit margin behind it is being squeezed by both difficulty and electricity costs.
This is the most realistic pressure miners face today—not a lack of hashrate, but insufficient "secure wages."
What are mining pools competing for?
The leading mining pool landscape is very clear: Foundry USA firmly holds first place (about 26–27%), followed closely by AntPool and F2Pool. Together, these three often control over 60% of $BTC.