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#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $INTC
The most easily misinterpreted part of this earnings report is attributing the plunge solely to the "Q4 guidance below expectations" surface fact.
A more accurate interpretation is: Q3 proved that Intel's server business has genuine structural demand, and the foundry's technological progress is real, but the time needed for these two positive signals to translate into financial profit has been simultaneously extended by the PC cycle downturn, supply incidents, and a peak in capital expenditures. The detail that “the ETF intends to directly hold ZEC” made me stop halfway through reading and go back to check the spokesperson’s identity. Having just entered the circle for a year, I originally took this as a dispute over privacy philosophy, but seeing that the applicant is a company under the Winklevoss brothers, I felt I needed to think a bit deeper 🤔
This time Cameron advocates that Zcash does not need to redo governance, putting privacy back at the core, and calls for the termination of ZCG; the related ETF has currently submitted a registration application. My own judgment is: when one party with potential holdings talks about governance, their views can be heard, but they cannot be directly taken as the common answer for all users.
My understanding is that holding $ZEC and using privacy features do not necessarily fully overlap in demands. If holders prefer to reduce governance disputes, while users care more about the availability of privacy features, then “less fuss” and “making the product better” are not necessarily the same thing. This is my speculation, not saying that a conflict has already occurred between the two sides.
I haven’t figured out yet how this indirect holding method via ETF will affect actual governance participation, and the materials do not clarify whether it participates in voting. For me, what needs to be observed next is whether the needs of different users can be heard, rather than who shouts the “privacy mission” more forcefully."Privacy is the core goal," I agree with this statement, but I won't use it as a reason to leverage. I don't play with high leverage; I prefer to step back from the hype and see if it actually changes the long-term value. What I care about most this time is whether clearly stating the mission can prove that the governance plan is also the right choice.
My judgment is: the mission statement alone is not yet a long-term positive; for now, it is more a voice in the governance debate. In the materials, Cameron also advocates no need to redo governance or terminate ZCG, and his asset management firm has previously submitted a Zcash ETF registration application. These moves carry weight but cannot serve as a report card for the actual progress of privacy products.
Regarding $ZEC, I prefer to separate the "goal" from the "method." Privacy is the goal; holding tokens to vote is the method. Agreeing with the former does not mean the latter is inherently effective. In my estimation, if governance adjustments can reduce conflicts and allow development to focus more, then it might become a long-term signal; if it's just a change of people continuing the disputes, ordinary users will not get a better privacy experience as a result.
As for me, I am a slow mover holding steady, not rushing to take sides. Leverage, however, won't wait patiently for debates to settle. My reminder to myself is: don't get carried away by statements; pay more attention to whether privacy capabilities and user experience actually improve.Last night's hacker incident caused a sharp drop, and many people think "the bad news is fully priced in" or "Binance has already bailed out," preparing to use large funds to bottom-fish. Don't be impulsive! Here are some fatal realities to consider:
1. The bailout is only "life-saving," selling pressure is far from gone
Although Binance and Tether quickly froze some funds and promised compensation, this only guarantees "deposits won't be wiped out." The tokens in the hacker's hands that haven't been frozen remain a sword hanging overhead, and they could dump at any liquidity window. The real market selling pressure has not disappeared.
2. Stolen coins become a "financial weapon," long positions become fuel
It's hard for hackers to cash out, but a more sophisticated tactic is to coordinate with massive short positions: selling stolen ETH to create panic and precisely harvesting high-leverage long positions. Your 20x long position is their ATM and liquidation fuel. On a macro level, continuous ETF outflows add to the gloom.
3. Liquidity dries up, beware of "spikes up and down"
Current liquidity is extremely poor; market makers and hackers can easily create fake rebounds to lure longs, then follow with a big bearish candle to dump. ETH and BNB have dropped over 4%, with intense long-short battles. Heavy contract positions now are like gambling on big or small; be sure to control your hands and keep enough cash to wait for the right side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC To start with a reality check, opening a large long position does not mean the direction has been confirmed. Core Trader 14 used 15x leverage to go long 555 ETH, with a nominal value of about $1,211,300. I wouldn’t take this trade as a signal to go long; instead, I want to see: if the price doesn’t cooperate, who will be forced to change their mind first.
I have two concerns. First, the monitoring only shows this wallet’s actions, without visibility into its full assets and other positions; if it also has hedges, then observers following the long might actually be exposed to a completely different risk. Second, the nominal amount is not the invested principal but determines the profit and loss sensitivity to price fluctuations. Roughly estimating with unchanged position size, for every $100 move against ETH, this long position would incur about $55,500 in unrealized losses. My guess is that if the market doesn’t give positive feedback soon, high-leverage longs will suffer more than low-leverage holders, but the exact liquidation point can’t be determined from this data alone.
Of course, it’s also possible they caught the right direction. My bearish bias doesn’t mean I oppose going long. If the price can sustain above this reference price of about $2,182.53 and recover after a pullback, I will reduce my skepticism and see it as a buy-side response rather than just a wallet expressing intent. Next, I will watch how the price responds to this long position, without relying on position size to boost my confidence. $COIN
715 million and 2.2 billion, less than a day apart.
When Coinbase's Q3 earnings report just came out, it was quite lively: net profit of $719 million, turning a profit, a scene of "crypto brokers winning easily." I looked closely — 715 million is the paper unrealized gain calculated from the appreciation of crypto assets held, the actual adjusted operating profit was only 78 million, and trading revenue dropped 44% year-on-year. They did make money, but it was from coin price, not business.
Then this morning they announced that executives plan to sell up to 13.6 million shares, which at the current price is about $2.2 billion. No one knows better than executives whether their own stock is worth anything, so I side with the sellers on this one.
Actually tested the COIN token on OKX at 154.94, which is already more than 3 points lower than the US stock's closing price of 160.59 yesterday, and last night it hit a low of 150.23. This token has near-zero fees, contract positions only $5.2 million, pricing basically follows the US stock, and in the crypto world it's just a shadow.
I just finished writing "Making a good profit is not as good as holding through trouble," and they immediately taught me another lesson: the wealth on the report is not as good as the cash in your pocket. This drama is the same everywhere, and I even laughed after reading it.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 🔍“Operating for hundreds of years” — does that prove token voting is suitable for Zcash? I, Old K, actually become suspicious when I see this sentence: just because a mechanism has been used for a long time doesn’t mean it’s appropriate to put it on-chain. What can be confirmed is that Cameron made this claim and called for the termination of ZCG, while his brother’s company had previously submitted a Zcash ETF application; whether governance should change is still his judgment.
An interesting detail here: the history of capital markets is being used to endorse on-chain governance. I think this analogy lacks sufficient evidence; the key is how voting rights distribution and accountability are arranged. Here’s my speculation: if governance leans more toward token holder voting, then the preferences of large holders may more easily dominate resource allocation; “privacy first” does not automatically eliminate this divergence.
Don’t rush to conclusions yet. I will continue to focus on specific governance proposals rather than treating statements as finalized. Let’s all keep an eye on what follows: what evidence will you use to judge whether token voting truly benefits privacy development? Let’s see whose speculation comes closer.$BTC
Was slammed down to 76000 by hackers, this time I'm leaning bullish—don't rush, I mean don't rush to call the bear market restart.
The panic is indeed scary, the whole market was bloodied last night, BTC bottomed at 76472. But there's a figure I've been watching: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $17.07 million yesterday, four days in a row, with IBIT alone accounting for $12.8 million. The ones being hit are exchanges, not Bitcoin itself; this money thinks more clearly than those shouting trade calls.
On the other side, tonight Deribit has 134,000 BTC options expiring, nominal $10.48 billion, with the max pain point at 78000—current price 78261, right on target. Put/Call ratio is only 0.53; after such a big dump, not many dare to bet on further drops.
The 18,270 BTC stolen, I tend to think it can't be dumped all at once in the short term. Mixing channels have been tightly controlled these years, with KYC and on-chain tracking, laundering out requires a lot of effort. Jiang Zhuoer’s calculations are similar: Binance's gross outflow is 5.64 billion, after freezing 3 billion, 2.64 billion remains, accounting for 1.6% of user assets, not comparable to Bybit's 9% back then; the withdrawal wave is likely more noise than substance.
Fees are still positive now, OI at $2.69 billion hasn't shrunk much. My judgment: this wave is a liquidity shock, not a fundamental breach. But I won't rush to go long here; panic bottoms are always formed by the market itself, wait for it to stabilize before talking.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 黑客手里那14亿美金的18270枚BTC，短期内基本别想砸出来，反而变相给市场锁仓了。$BTC $ETH $SNDK 跟ETH完全不一样。以前BTC还能靠ChipMixer、Bitcoin Fog、Samourai这些混币渠道洗，现在全被端了。主流CEX的KYC卡得死死的，敢充进来直接冻结。 当年BTC-e那种来者不拒的交易所早就没了，门头沟那批赃币想大规模出货根本找不到门路。 2016年Bitfinex被偷12万枚，黑客折腾了6年才洗出去一小部分，最后还是被FBI追回了9.4万枚。那时候链上追踪几乎为零。 现在过去十年了，Chainalysis、Elliptic、Arkham这些公司盯着，被盗地址几分钟内全行业标红，想动都动不了。 币安这次亏得这么狠，肯定拼了命也要追回来，不会轻易放过。 所以这18270枚BTC，不是洗不了，是洗得慢、折价狠、随时可能被截胡。 算是这次事件里唯一能自我安慰的地方了。#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Long positions liquidated across the board, ETH long liquidations nearly 57 million U
📊4-hour liquidation data overview
✅ ETH: Total liquidations 70.9748 million U, accounting for 37.4%
Long liquidations 56.9589 million U | Short liquidations 14.016 million U
✅ BTC: Total liquidations 52.6263 million U, accounting for 27.73%
Long liquidations 34.027 million U | Short liquidations 18.5993 million U
✅ XRP: Total liquidations 6.4486 million U, accounting for 3.4%
Long liquidations 5.5697 million U | Short liquidations 0.8789 million U
Key points
This round of downward market movement mainly targets cleaning out high-position long holders. ETH long liquidations lead by a wide margin, with nearly 57 million U of long positions wiped out; BTC and XRP also show long liquidation volumes significantly exceeding shorts.
A large amount of high-position chasing chips stopped losses, panic selling concentrated. After short-term selling pressure is released, the market can easily see a quick wick rebound. Avoid blindly shorting during the downtrend; beware of bear traps and reversals.I just checked OKX ETH perpetual contracts; the long positions have already outnumbered the shorts by more than three to one, yet the funding rate has turned negative.
The long-short ratio peaked at 3.27 between 11 AM and 3 PM, the highest in four days. The settlement funding rate at 8 AM was -0.003%, the first negative rate in over half a month, meaning shorts are effectively paying longs.
At first, I thought with more people going long, the funding rate should rise. But it doesn't add up: while the number of longs increased, the capital hasn't followed. The top 5% of large accounts' position ratio remains near the four-day low, and the perpetual price is still significantly below the spot price.
Yesterday's prediction was to check if the top 5% position ratio would return above 0.87 by this time today; if so, I'd be wrong. But this morning it was still 0.83, so it didn't hit that mark.
Retail investors keep buying the dip, while large holders are pressing on the short side, which is why the funding rate is suppressed into negative territory. If the settlement at 8 AM tomorrow flips back to positive, it means the big money has also jumped in, and I'll admit I was wrong.Meme coins can't hold up without news; once the market drops, their true nature is exposed.
$DOGE fell 6% back to $0.074, while $SHIB and $PEPE all shrank collectively. Before this round of decline, meme sentiment was already low, with the fear and greed index dropping straight from 46 to 37, entering the fear zone.
The issue now isn't which meme to pick, but to avoid catching a falling knife. Historical patterns show that after exchange-level black swan events, meme coins usually need to bottom out for another week or two. If you really want to position yourself, wait for DOGE to confirm a second bottom around $0.07 before considering it. Acting now is most likely just helping the whales.#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 $SNDK $xSNDK SanDisk's earnings report is indeed as I expected, very impressive. But why did the stock still decline today? I believe it's mainly due to the positive news being fully priced in. Since SK Hynix released its earnings report a day earlier, and its stock rose, it drove SanDisk's rise as well. So the market had already anticipated and positioned for SanDisk's earnings beating expectations ahead of time. Therefore, there was a decline today, but this decline is healthy and won't last long; a rebound upward is possible later. Because SanDisk's fundamentals are not bad, everyone can still look forward to it. When I saw this message, it reminded me of an old question discussed in traditional futures exchanges about rules: Should those who put in more money have greater say? In the futures market, no matter how familiar the voting methods are, they cannot replace the inspection of core tasks like delivery and risk control.
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss stated that capital markets have used stakeholder voting for hundreds of years, and token-holder voting is just an on-chain implementation; Zcash does not need to reinvent governance mechanisms. He believes privacy is the core goal and calls for the termination of Zcash Community Grants (ZCG).
I agree with putting privacy back on the main track, but I do not agree with directly stamping traditional shareholder voting onto on-chain governance. The equity relationships of company shareholders are relatively clear, but the token holders, developers, and privacy users in crypto networks do not necessarily overlap; if opinions are expressed only according to token holdings, the needs of actual users may be overshadowed by financial weight, which is my concern.
On the other hand, terminating a funding mechanism does not automatically mean resources will flow to privacy development. I pay more attention to whether alternative arrangements can take over development support; otherwise, having one less governance process does not necessarily mean more product capability. My judgment is that returning to the mission makes sense, but what exactly to withdraw still needs separate discussion.
Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? If you participate in such voting, would you copy shareholder voting by equity, or reserve separate seats for developers and actual users? #OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to push perpetual contracts into the compliant US market. Let me break down this big event for you guys. On October 29, Star, the founder of OKX, announced that OKX will collaborate with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the on-chain perpetual contract platform Trade.xyz to officially advance perpetual contracts into the regulated US market. The specific plan is: ICE has signed an agreement with Trade.xyz, and in the future, ICE will build an independent trading and clearing system and act as the exclusive operator, then sell to US retail investors through a joint venture between ICE and OKX. The coolest part is that this system is built based on Hyperliquid's technology. Once the news broke, amid a market-wide bloodbath, HYPE directly surged against the trend, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 13%. My personal view, from Xiaomage, is that this is a perfect script of "recruitment" and "counterattack." Many new retail investors might not realize how powerful this is. Previously, Americans strictly guarded against perpetual contracts, considering them too risky. Now, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange is personally stepping in to build a clearing system. What does this mean? It means traditional finance finally acknowledges that on-chain derivatives are a good thing and wants to get a piece of this pie. And the most dramatic part is Hyperliquid. A purely decentralized grassroots platform, not only did it not get crushed by traditional giants, but it has become the "underlying technology provider" for giants building a compliant market. This is definitely a super highlight moment for DeFi. The community is even buzzing about the former Soros Quantum Fund trader... A funding rate of 0.0013% per hour caught my attention more than that rising line. Anyone living day to day knows that a slow dripping faucet doesn’t mean the water meter isn’t running. After retiring and learning about digital assets, I’ve gotten used to first looking at those inconspicuous but ongoing expenses.
This time $ZRO rose briefly but still fell throughout the day; the data provided is from perpetual contract markets. My view is that this is not yet evidence of a trend reversal. For those using leverage, the cost of holding positions is actually more tangible. With a positive funding rate, longs have to pay; if this rate persists, waiting for a price rebound also incurs costs. However, this is a conditional inference—the rate itself can change, so you can’t just keep projecting current numbers forward.
A reminder to young friends: don’t just ask how far the price can go, also consider how long you can afford to wait. When you see this kind of volatility, do you factor the funding rate into your judgment, or mainly focus on price and volume?#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market
The leader has something to say
OKX is teaming up with ICE and Trade.xyz to push perpetual contracts into the US compliant market. Moreover, this cooperation is built on Hyperliquid technology. Once the news broke, HYPE surged against the trend amid a general decline in mainstream crypto assets, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 13% at one point, now stabilizing at 3.53%. OKB also rose by 3.10%.
I believe this marks a major turning point in the perpetual contracts sector. Previously, these decentralized derivatives were always pushing the boundaries of compliance recklessly. Now, with the New York Stock Exchange's parent company (ICE) directly stepping in as the exclusive operator, it effectively brings this sector into the mainstream regulatory framework.
Some comments say that the Soros Quantum Fund operator has entered the market, which means capital is voting with its feet. Once compliance expectations open up, the potential for incremental capital emerges. HYPE, as the underlying technology provider, is reaping the most direct benefits.
For the overall market, this indicates that the crypto market's compliance process is accelerating, which is good in the long term. But today, Bitcoin is still hovering near the 80,000 mark, facing short-term pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance.
Let's see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rally or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲
This financial report makes me even more certain that the storage industry is undergoing a boom cycle driven by AI demand!
The most noteworthy aspect of $SNDK is not the revenue growth rate, but the pricing power of NAND flash.
The biggest pain point in the storage industry used to be oversupply; when prices fell, profits quickly shrank. But now, with AI data center expansion, continuous growth in enterprise SSD demand, and manufacturers controlling capacity, there is room for improvement in NAND pricing and product mix.
However, the 378% growth should not be simply interpreted as nearly a fourfold expansion in end-user demand; the financial scope after business segmentation and the year-over-year base must also be considered.
Looking at the supply chain, $MU is simultaneously involved in DRAM and NAND, $SKHYNIX has a clear advantage in the HBM field, and Samsung covers HBM, DRAM, and NAND.
I believe the most critical change in this market cycle is that the market is beginning to reassess the profit elasticity of storage companies.
But be aware, storage price increases are a double-edged sword. Price hikes drive profit improvement but may also stimulate manufacturers to expand production, eventually reversing the supply-demand balance.
Next, focus on Q2 gross margin guidance, enterprise SSD orders, and NAND contract pricing.
If price increases can continue to translate into profits, $SNDK's performance still has support.
The biggest risk in the storage cycle is not poor performance, but that when performance is at its best, the market has already priced in future growth.英特尔暴跌22%只是开场？存储涨价正在反噬整条PC链
盘后一根大阴线，英特尔直接被砸出22%的跌幅，市场用脚投票。陈立武也摊牌了：PC需求疲软，内存价格却一路狂飙，这个窟窿到2027年上半年都未必补得上。
本质不复杂——AI算力那边开香槟，传统PC这边修屋顶。前两年大家猛聊“存储超级周期”，如今后遗症来了：海力士、三星、美光这些上游玩家利润爆表，下游PC厂和芯片厂却被高昂存储成本按在地上摩擦。终端卖不动，成本下不来，越生产越难受。
所以，别看到跌幅大就手痒去接飞刀。没落赛道反弹不等于反转，产业链的钱往哪儿流，才是关键。AI算力和存储上游仍在吸金，传统PC链的苦日子可能还没到头。稳住仓位，别上头。#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $INTC ETH is currently fluctuating narrowly around 2220, facing dense rebound selling pressure above, while the strong support zone at the 2200 whole number and 2190 is being repeatedly tested. The short-term trading logic should mainly follow the downtrend by shorting on rallies, combined with long positions on the right-side rebound from the extremely oversold and very weak support zone. Blind bottom-fishing without basis is strictly prohibited. Risk control and configuration discipline: This plan strictly implements a balanced risk control strategy. Single position size is recommended not to exceed 10% of total funds, maximum leverage for opening a position must not exceed 5x, single maximum loss is strictly controlled within 1.0% of total funds, and trading must be unconditionally stopped if the cumulative maximum loss for the day reaches 3.0%. #FedKeepsRatesUnchanged
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1%
🏦 FOMC holds 3.75%-4% Oct 29 vote 10-2 — 2nd straight hold? Actually 2nd cut cycle pause. Miran wanted 50bps cut, Schmid wanted no cut. Powell: Dec cut "not foregone conclusion" meeting-by-meeting. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, job gains slowed, gov shutdown clouds data. QT to end Dec 1 after 3-year runoff. Market pricing Dec cut 67.2% vs 49.9% before minutes. Dow 52,475 +0.19%. Pause = Fed watching tariffs + labor. Next: Dec FOMC. 1930 Market Update: BTC Leads the Correction
BTC is trading near $77.8K, with $77K–$77.5K as key support. Reclaiming $79K could signal recovery, while a breakdown may push it toward $75.5K.
$ETH trades around $2,220, with $2,200 as critical support. $XRP sits near $1.23, with support at $1.20.
Overall: The market remains bearish, with altcoins showing weakness. Until BTC reclaims $79K, risk management matters more than chasing a bottom.
Healthy correction or further downside?
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1% $BTC just gave everyone a little heart attack with that sudden drop I checked the 4H chart, and price plunged to $76,472 before bouncing back to around $78,285. But the recovery still needs proof because BTC is trading below the 5, 10 and 20 moving averages. I’m watching $76,472 as support and $79,400–$80,265 as the recovery zone. Will buyers step in properly this time, or is another dip waiting? 👀Good morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $ETH 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total liquidation amount for ETH in 24 hours is: $365 million.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: $304 million.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: $60.8049 million. The transaction keeps loading in a loop, should I click again?
The thing that makes me most anxious about on-chain operations is when the page keeps loading but the price is still moving. But at this time, I first check the transaction status.
The page not updating doesn’t mean the transaction wasn’t sent. If I have the transaction hash, I go to the corresponding block explorer to see: is it still pending, successful, or failed? Before confirming, submitting a new transaction might turn one operation into two.
Take a regular Ethereum account transaction as an example; transactions have an order. If the previous one isn’t processed properly, subsequent operations might be affected. Wallet features like speed-up or cancel also require waiting for on-chain processing; they don’t take effect immediately after clicking.
My records keep the submission time, transaction hash, and final result, making it easier to distinguish whether the issue is on-chain or just a display problem.
The faster the market moves, the more I want to understand what I’ve already done before deciding the next step.
When your transaction gets stuck, do you check the status first or can’t help but click again?S1Quant Research Observation | How Do Exchange Security Incidents Affect Bitcoin?
Exchange thefts do not correspond to a fixed pattern of BTC price rises or falls. The current preliminary sample size is insufficient to confirm a stable directional impact, and post-incident returns cannot be directly regarded as a result of the theft. When assessing risk, focus should be on three transmission channels:
Asset Flow and Potential Selling Pressure
Whether the stolen assets include BTC and whether they enter the trading market provide more explanatory power than the nominal loss amount. It is necessary to distinguish between abnormal transfers, cross-chain exchanges, and actual sales; these should not be equated directly.
Solvency and Liquidity
Whether losses can be covered, whether deposits and withdrawals return to normal, and whether asset and liability disclosures are sufficient determine if the security incident further evolves into a credit crisis. Proof of reserves still needs to be evaluated in conjunction with liabilities and fund availability.
Macroeconomic Environment and Leverage Structure
Interest rate expectations, capital flows, and centralized clearing may amplify price volatility. When analyzing the impact of incidents, it is necessary to distinguish between industry shocks and concurrent market factors.
Core Judgment: The amount stolen determines the scale of the incident, while actual asset disposition, solvency, and market liquidity jointly determine how risk is transmitted. Historical averages should not be directly used as a basis for shorting or bottom-fishing.$ETH Who is buyingSo, from the outside, it looks like Binance's hot wallet transferred the funds out by itself. On-chain, there is no "external address transferring assets" action visible; it just looks like Binance 14 is making a normal outgoing transaction.
The attacker did not know the real-time nonce of Binance 14 (that wallet was still continuously sending transactions). So he stuffed 50 authorizations into one transaction, with the nonce ranging from N to N+49, betting that one of them would hit. In the end, only one took effect.04:41 and 04:59: The attacker called another function 0x043ff9d2 on Binance 14; within the same minute, Hot Wallet 34 transferred out 780 million and 43 million USDC respectively. The attacker borrowed the permissions of Binance 14 for this contract.
05:04: Another sweep, sweeping away 1,699.92 ETH.
05:22 to 06:02: Breaking down the amounts. RLUSD 88.5 million, UNI 7.02 million, PEPE 7.77 trillion, wBETH 29,934, ENA 217.5 million, each sent to brand new addresses, with each address pre-funded with 0.5 to 1 ETH for Gas.
05:44: During this process, another successful sweep occurred on Binance 14, sweeping the newly deposited funds.
Only 3 minutes and 24 seconds passed from the delegation to the first sweep. But Binance's risk control system took no interception action. Main attack: 40 minutes (October 30, 04:21 – 06:02)
04:21:00: Submitted an EIP-7702 type transaction, delegating the code of 0x63e8…6fAe to Binance 14, address 0x28C6…1d60. The same transaction included 50 authorizations, with only 1 hitting the nonce.
04:24:23: Main sweep occurred. Binance 14 initiated the call itself, transferring out 167,464 ETH plus 63 types of tokens to 0x5227…2f8c, including about 1.615 billion USDT. The fee was 0.0004 ETH, less than 1 dollar.
04:24:47: Binance 16 added 28,005.6 ETH to the same address, almost seamlessly.
04:30 to 04:33: Started splitting USDT, 500 million sent to 0x9749…C762, 200 million sent to 0x0Ddf…697e.
04:38: 195,460 ETH transferred in one go to 0x8532…43D4. This was the largest single transfer. $AAVE, can weekend pricing enable Aave Horizon to expand tokenized assets? Aave Horizon uses Chainlink's weekend pricing service for traditional assets, filling the price reference gap for stocks and other targets during market closures. Continuous pricing reduces the risk of collateral valuation gaps but also introduces oracle and liquidation risks when liquidity is thin. If collateral scale, borrowing demand, and protocol revenue grow, business value increases; if weekend prices deviate from spot, triggering liquidations or stagnation in scale, expansion expectations should be lowered.I'm the type to draw lines, but before even drawing them, I remind myself not to be misled by liquidation numbers. 📈 When I encounter such news, I focus on spot volume, changes in contract open interest, and whether the price can hold the breakout zone after a pullback following a surge, without rushing to label the trend.
OKX's public forced liquidation data shows that in the past hour, there were 31 forced liquidations on the $SOL USDT perpetual contract, totaling at least $830,000, with shorts accounting for 97%, and the largest single liquidation about $480,000. This wave is indeed a short squeeze, but I think it serves more as a risk warning for short-term leveraged traders than as a fundamental indicator.
One liquidation accounts for more than half of the total amount, and concentrated liquidations can amplify perception; forced short liquidations do not directly prove sustained active buying. If the price rises while open interest declines, I tend to interpret it as driven by position reductions. This is my observation framework. Next, I will watch whether spot volume can take over; don't mistake liquidation noise for trend confirmation.Is a project financially strong just because its treasury is rich?
When I see a project announce the size of its treasury, I first scroll down to see: what exactly is inside?
Suppose the treasury shows a balance of 100 million, but 80 million of that is the project's own tokens, that's completely different from holding 100 million in cash. If the token price drops, the treasury's valuation will shrink; if they really want to sell tokens to cover expenses, they have to consider how much the market can absorb.
So when I analyze spot holdings, I separate stablecoins, other assets, and the project's own tokens, then look for public disclosures of expenses, liabilities, and fund usage plans. The on-chain balance you can check doesn't necessarily represent the project's entire assets.
If there's only a total amount without asset details, I write "insufficient information" in my observation notes and won't directly label it as well-funded.
For me, what's more worth tracking is whether the project still has resources to keep going after the market cools down.
When you look at a project's treasury, do you pay more attention to the total amount or to what exactly it holds inside? SanDisk's earnings report first surged then fell: What exactly is the market repricing?
SanDisk's earnings report numbers are not bad. Revenue reached $11 billion, a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase; data center business grew 61% quarter-over-quarter. The company's revenue guidance for the next quarter is also higher than this quarter's actual revenue.
But the market did not cheer all the way. In the hour after the earnings release, the price surged to 1378, then fell back; later it dipped to 1261.6 before gradually rebounding.
I think the market's current debate focuses on how long this high growth can last. Strong storage demand and increased profits are already reflected in the report; what investors need to calculate next is whether data center demand can continue to grow, and whether product prices and profit margins can be maintained. A good earnings report does not automatically mean acceleration can continue every quarter in the future.
But here we must also consider a counterpoint: the company still expects revenue growth next quarter, and the data center business is expanding. Simply judging that storage demand has peaked based on contract declines is also untenable. Whether this is a cooling of expectations or short-term capital adjustment still requires subsequent price and operational data verification.
On the chart, I am first watching the hourly high near contract 1312. If it recovers and holds on a pullback, then look at the post-earnings surge near 1378; if the rebound is blocked and it falls below 1261.6 again, it indicates this recovery is not yet solid.
$SNDK #闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 #OKX星球话题来啦 $5.6 billion swept away in 40 minutes
The night before: 18 hours of preparation (October 28–29)
From October 28: The attacker’s initiating address 0x7C86…5CA0 received three transfers of about 0.1 ETH each from Tornado Cash, specifically to pay for Gas. This address had no prior connection with Binance.
October 29, 10:29: Deployed the first sweep contract 0x19be…f2bf, which was later abandoned.
October 29, 21:51: Wrote EIP-7702 delegations to two test wallets. Neither wallet belongs to Binance; they were external wallets found by the attacker.
October 29, 22:20 and 22:24: First and second rehearsals, calling sweep to empty these two test wallets. The first attempt may have had issues, so it was repeated four minutes later.
October 29, 23:59: Deployed a revised contract 0x63e8…6fAe, which ultimately took effect on Binance.
October 30, 00:21 to 00:30: Third rehearsal, switched to a third wallet, with two delegations plus one sweep.
Then silence for 3 hours and 51 minutes. Until the attack began. $AMZN Amazon's earnings report indeed did not exceed expectations, consistent with my previous judgment.
Q3 revenue was $20.194 billion, below the market expectation of $20.222 billion; earnings per share were $1.89, also below the expected $1.97.
The brightest spot was AWS, with revenue of $45.98 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in nearly five years, and AI computing demand remains strong. However, the problem is also clear: the company expects capital expenditures to reach $220 billion in 2026, and further increase in 2027, with the cash flow pressure from huge investments not to be ignored.
Additionally, although operating profit grew 61% year-over-year, overall revenue and EPS still did not meet market expectations.
This is also why I was previously skeptical about the earnings beating expectations: no matter how fast AWS grows, investment costs and profit conversion need to be considered. Amazon's long-term AI story still holds, but in the short term, the stock price needs to face the dual test of performance expectations and capital expenditures.
#亚马逊Q3营收略逊预期，AWS增速达近五年最快水平 Is CORE really done for? I went through today's data carefully.
Screenshot from OKEx at 11:54: CORE/USDT perpetual contract at 0.01543, down 11.42% in 24 hours, high 0.01770, low 0.01403, volume 309 million tokens / 4.7705 million USDT. Back-calculating yesterday's close: 0.01543 ÷ (1−0.1142) ≈ 0.01742, daily high-low range 26.2% ((0.01770−0.01403) ÷ 0.01403). On the 15-minute chart, EMA5 is 0.01537, EMA10 0.01532, EMA20 0.01540—all clustered together; MACD's DIFF −0.00016 crosses above DEA −0.00024, histogram +0.00016—a golden cross underwater, short-term bleeding stopped, trend not reversed.
The real sting is the 0.01403 figure. The historical low recorded by Script Home on October 29 was 0.016358 (spot basis), and today’s wick pierced below that. A new low means no previous low to act as support; below is a blank slate.
Whether it’s done for depends on the ledger. The same project's stage gains: last 30 days −25.27%, last 6 months −52.37%, last year −92.52%; Coinranking’s monthly closes form the same downward line, from $0.206 in October 2025 to $0.0279 in March 2026. Market cap size: CoinMarketCap lists circulating market cap at $23.22 million, ranked 608; CoinGecko lists $25.15 million, ranked 749. Their circulating supply metrics differ, but the scale is around twenty million dollars.
Three events led to this point. At the end of March, Colend liquidation cascade dropped price from about 0.13 to near 0.03 within hours, $130 million volume hitting a $34 million market cap; on September 1, validator over-rewards triggered an emergency hard fork, with Coinbase, Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, LBank restricting deposits and withdrawals; on October 28, the project officially announced that initial contributors Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo stepped down, handing block production to independent validators. The project calls this the next step in decentralization, but the market reads it as "people have left."
Today’s drop isn’t entirely its own fault. Binance was suspected of a hacker attack early morning, Bitcoin fell below $78,000, down 4% intraday, with over 180,000 liquidations across the network totaling $1.112 billion in 24 hours (China Fund News 10-30). A small cap with 0.88 correlation to Bitcoin fell 11% when the big cap dropped 4%.
I only trust one line: the daily close must reclaim above 0.01742 and hold for three days before we can talk about a bottom; if not, the words "done for" are not insults, but descriptions.$AMZN Amazon's earnings report indeed did not exceed expectations, consistent with my previous judgment.
Q3 revenue was $20.194 billion, below the market expectation of $20.222 billion; earnings per share were $1.89, also below the expected $1.97.
The brightest spot was AWS, with revenue of $45.98 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in nearly five years, and AI computing demand remains strong. However, the problem is also clear: the company expects capital expenditures to reach $220 billion in 2026, and further increase in 2027, with the cash flow pressure from huge investments not to be ignored.
Additionally, although operating profit grew 61% year-over-year, overall revenue and EPS still did not meet market expectations.
This is also why I was previously skeptical about the earnings beating expectations: no matter how fast AWS grows, investment costs and profit conversion need to be considered. Amazon's long-term AI story still holds, but in the short term, the stock price needs to face the dual test of performance expectations and capital expenditures.
#亚马逊Q3营收略逊预期，AWS增速达近五年最快水平 $BTC Current market positives that can be presented (graded by strength, objectively explained, mostly repair-type positives, not strong reversal positives) 1. Marginal easing of the Binance hack incident (the most direct positive at present) Binance statement: All losses will be covered by the platform, user assets are not affected; stablecoin issuers have frozen a large amount of USDT/USDC held by the hacker, part of the chips the hacker could use to dump are locked, panic sentiment will not spread indefinitely, avoiding further escalation of a bank run stampede. Shortcoming: Native coins like ETH and BTC cannot be frozen, so the selling pressure risk from the hacker's holdings remains. 2. Technical oversold support BTC dropped to 76472, entering a key previous capital absorption zone, combined with the lower Bollinger Band, which easily triggers short-term bottom-fishing funds and short profit-taking closures, bringing a rebound repair, a technical positive, not news-driven. 3. Institutional long-term buying expectations Listed companies like MSTR (Strategy) and Strive have long-term plans to continuously increase BTC holdings, with expectations to buy on dips during major drops; US spot BTC ETFs occasionally see single-day inflows, representing long-term base holdings, but overall outflows have dominated in recent days, with weak absorption strength. 4. Regulatory expectations are relatively mild (medium to long-term positive, not effective in the short term) The US SEC's attitude towards crypto assets has eased compared to before, RWA and tokenized asset narratives continue to advance, tokenized debt products like BlackRock BUIDL continue to expand, benefiting public chains and ETH.Seven portfolios, three BlackRock strategies. Ondo launched Intelligent Portfolios on Solana yesterday: one token corresponds to a whole basket of tokenized stocks and ETFs, with contracts automatically rebalancing according to rules, eligible non-US users can directly acquire them. The official statement says that previously on Ethereum and BNB Chain, TVL exceeded about $45 million within weeks; Ondo's tokenized asset inventory on Solana itself has already surpassed $500 million. CoinGecko spot ONDO is about $0.385 (snapshot around 12:08 Beijing time), down about four and a half points in 24 hours.
After tokenizing individual stocks, portfolios also began to be packaged into a transferable token. The key is not just adding another chain, but whether new shares can continue to be minted on the Solana side; opponents would say this is just moving the shelf, and buying demand has not caught up yet.
Looking first at one week net increase: if these seven portfolio tokens fail to show verifiable holdings growth soon, this will only count as a new chain expansion, not that the portfolio products have already attracted new money.
$ONDO
#Ondo #Solana$COMP
Governance tokens face a fundamental question: does voting power translate into meaningful economic influence? Compound operates in decentralized lending, where capital efficiency, borrowing demand, collateral quality, and risk controls shape the protocol’s usefulness. COMP’s investment narrative therefore cannot rest solely on DeFi recovery. A stronger assessment considers whether lending activity creates sustainable protocol relevance and whether token holders capture sufficient value. 💻I treat this order as a code review: Core Trader 17 goes long on $BTC with 20x leverage, nominal value about $401,000.
The logic is bullish, but I think the bug lies in fault tolerance: a reverse fluctuation of about 5% could exhaust the initial margin, and the exact liquidation price is also affected by the margin mode.
If it were me, I would set a stop loss first, then work backward to determine the leverage. Help me review: if there is a price jump, what might this stop loss logic still be missing?HYPE surged on news of entering the US market, but the first thing I noticed was the crack in BNB. The hype is one thing, but where is the real fragile point to watch? Seeing HYPE jump 10 points instantly on the news of entering the US market, my first reaction was not to chase, but to see who fell behind in this wave. After all, it had already captured 73.3% market share in the perp DEX sector, making it the absolute leader. With the added expectation of the US market, the story indeed becomes smoother. Technically, it also cooperates: the price directly stands above the MA20 at 84.7, the short-term structure shifts from consolidation to strength, and the sentiment is supportive. But the gap between surface hype and real support has already appeared. - If BNB didn’t have the buying support from Pre-TGE today, the price would likely look worse. It has now fallen below 740, leaving the uptrend line; RSI at 54 is neutral to sluggish, and MACD is almost flat with no direction. To reconfirm strength, it must first reclaim 759.9 with volume, otherwise the rebound looks more like a correction than a reversal. - OKB is even more marginal, with an open interest of only 37 million, basically no one is playing with it. The price is grinding near 110, RSI at 37 is weak, suppressed by the MA30 at 119. It needs to return to the 116 to 120 range first to have any decent elasticity. My own understanding is that this wave is not trading on "perp DEX overall improvement," but rather on "US compliance expectations being prematurely priced in" Let's do the math first: the proposed Zcash ETF fee rate is 0.25%, which corresponds to a cost of 25 yuan per 10,000 yuan, but submitting an S-1 does not equal approval. Gemini co-founder Cameron advocates that there is no need to redo governance, privacy is the core, and calls for the termination of ZCG.
I agree with focusing on privacy, but removing the funding mechanism does not equal efficiency improvement. Less fuss is stability; if development support is cut off as a result, then it is risking the core mission.
I will first see how the funding responsibilities are taken over, and will not directly treat institutional statements as positive news, to be more cautious.Earnings report has highlights, but stock price still falls: Here's how to view Google's lesson
Google's Q3 earnings report has many highlights, yet the stock price still dropped about 10% after hours. It clarifies one truth: the market doesn't focus on whether the earnings report is good or not, but on how much the report deviates from expectations.
Let's look at the numbers first: Revenue was 127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, but below the expected 128.22 billion; earnings per share were 2.12, significantly below the expected 3.02. Cloud revenue was 30.7 billion, doubling year-over-year; backlog was 561 billion, short of the expected 650 billion.
Why? Three reasons. First, expectations are already priced in; cloud doubling but still falling is common in earnings seasons. Second, an 8.7 billion loss from equity securities dragged down profits; excluding this, earnings per share would be 2.67, still below expectations. Third, capital expenditures will increase significantly in 2027; the market hears "profitable business still needs to spend more money."
A reminder: In Orbit, the perpetual Google position buys more as it falls, with the long-short ratio rising from 6.3 to 8.5. Others buying is not a signal from the earnings report; bottom-fishing depends on whether your position can withstand the next candlestick.
Do you look at the total numbers first or the difference from expectations when reviewing earnings?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Numbers cited from company announcements and public reports: revenue 127.58 billion, earnings per share 2.12, cloud 30.7 billion, backlog 561 billion, Q3 expenditure 51.4 billion, after-hours drop about 10%. Contract risk is extremely high; leverage should be used prudently.) During the joint global operation by major institutions to block Binance hacker assets within these few hours, Ajian thinks it's needless to mention that stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle assisted in freezing assets. One special attribute of stablecoins is that, while serving as on-chain liquidity infrastructure, they may also have control capabilities similar to freezing accounts in the traditional financial system. What I mainly want to talk about is L2 protocols like Arbitrum:
For example, the Arbitrum Security Council exercised emergency management authority in this operation, transferring 74.56M $ARB and 8,425 $ETH from the attacker's wallet to an intermediate frozen wallet. This means that when users use Arbitrum, they rely not only on smart contracts but also on a governance organization; it also means that Arbitrum's emergency authority is not just for show—it can actively intervene in asset flows under special circumstances.
All of the above can indeed cooperate with law enforcement agencies in such incidents to prevent stolen assets from continuing to circulate, but it is also a thorn in the side for some users who strongly emphasize non-interference with assets. After the later stages of this incident, I think the on-chain intervention capabilities of stablecoin issuers and community councils will once again become a focus.
So, which side do you support? Only one alarm is set, for 12:30 on the 29th. The decision at 18:00 UTC on the 28th is widely expected by the market to hold steady; this time they won't even release the dot plot or economic forecast summary, so the statement will have limited new information. What will truly affect December pricing are the Q3 GDP preliminary figures and September PCE, both released together at 12:30 UTC the next day.
Looking at the two data sets separately, the key points to watch differ:
1. If the preliminary GDP remains around the 2% mark, it indicates the economy hasn't weakened enough to force the Fed to immediately ease, reducing the likelihood of easing in December.
2. The focus for PCE is on the month-over-month change. The year-over-year figures were already high last month and have been priced in by the market; whether the month-over-month continues to decline is crucial for leaving room for a rate cut.
$BTC has climbed back from the lows to 82,000, with part of this rise already factoring in December easing. Last week, ETF funds shifted direction daily, with a net inflow of $210 million on Friday and a net outflow of $130 million on Monday, indicating buyers themselves are waiting for these two data points before taking a definitive position.
The alarm is set; now it's just a matter of waiting for the numbers.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTCThe U.S. economy is accelerating, but why do people feel like it's getting harder to breathe?
How would you interpret today's economic calendar?
Q3 GDP is expected to grow by 3.2%, higher than the previous quarter's 2.2%. From a broader perspective, the U.S. economy is speeding up, with businesses continuing to grow and invest.
But for the average person, this story may not be so pleasant.
- PCE: Prices are expected to rise rapidly (0.5%), while income is only expected to increase slightly (0.3%), meaning the extra income may not be enough to cover living expenses.
Unemployment claims are also rising. If this trend continues, many families may have to cut back on shopping, delay home purchases, or dip into savings to pay bills.
→ Declining purchasing power will lead to slower business sales and reduced hiring.
Here lies the paradox: economic growth does not necessarily mean people are getting wealthier.
The economy is still growing rapidly, but rising living costs are a heavy burden on people. If rapid growth is accompanied by persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates and provide economic support.
The dollar is putting pressure on $XAU. $BTC responses also depend on risk appetite.
Do you think the market will focus on the strong-growing economy or on the cost people must pay to sustain that growth? Intel drops 22%, don’t rush to catch the falling knife
Intel plunged 22% after hours. Chen Liwu frankly admits weak PC demand and rising memory prices, with profit recovery possibly delayed until the first half of 2027. On the surface, it seems like Intel’s issue alone, but in reality, AI data centers and traditional PCs are worlds apart: computing power continues to expand, while PC demand is cold and costs are high.
The bill for the storage super cycle is being passed downstream. Upstream players like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are earning handsomely, but PC manufacturers and chipmakers have to swallow high material costs; with end products not selling well and costs not coming down, profits are squeezed from both ends. Intel happens to be at the pressure point in this chain.
Therefore, a big drop doesn’t mean cheap. The old PC supply chain’s difficulties won’t be resolved overnight, and bottom-fishing is more like catching a falling knife. What really needs tracking is the profit flow in the industry chain: money is moving toward AI computing power and upstream storage, not flowing back to traditional PCs. Strategically, watch more and act less, wait for a fundamental turning point, and don’t get carried away.
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Intel's Q3 report released today shows that the server segment indeed delivered growth, and it was stronger than I initially expected. However, the pace at which PC customers are cutting back on purchases has heavily dragged down profits for Q4. I underestimated this round of PC adjustments and overestimated the support that data center growth would provide to the group's profitability. After reading the financial report and the earnings call, I will lower my profit expectations for the group in Q4 and the first half of next year. The server business still looks promising, but the overall company’s timeline for sustained recovery needs to be pushed back. Here, it is necessary to clearly account for these two opposing changes. Focusing only on data center growth would underestimate the drag from PCs; looking only at the Q4 guidance would miss the changes already occurring in the server segment. First, let's review the previous forecast. In the outlook, I was slightly optimistic about Q3 and expected continued growth in Q4. Now, comparing to actuals, the deviation is clear. The table below shows revenue in billions of USD, EPS in USD; both gross margin and EPS are on an adjusted basis. Q3 is actual results, Q4 is the company's recently announced guidance. If we only look at total Q3 revenue, my previous estimate of $16.6 billion was only off by $87 million. But breaking it down by segment, this "close" figure is less encouraging. My previous forward-looking model estimated CCPG revenue at $8.8 billion and DCAI revenue at $6.8 billion. Actuals were $8.097 billion and $7.318 billion respectively. Client revenue was down by $703 million, data center revenue was up by $518 million, and these deviations largely offset each other. The close total revenue estimate masks the changes in business structure.