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Bitcoin has risen to $78,831! But with today's surge, I noticed something off with the funds!
On November 2nd, BTC rose 1.3%, seemingly about to break $80,000 again. But after reviewing the fund data, I actually think we shouldn't rush too much right now.
Here are 7 key points:
1. Binance spot 24-hour trading volume is $548 million, while contract trading volume is $4.638 billion. The most active market right now is still the contract market.
2. Aggressive buy orders account for 51.1%, bulls only have a slight advantage, far from a frenzy of buying.
3. The most interesting thing is that although the price rose, contract open interest dropped from 97,309 to 95,070, down by 2,239 contracts! This rally is partly driven by liquidations, not purely new long positions entering.
4. The US Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $643 million on the last trading day, with a total outflow of $976 million over the past 7 trading days. In other words, institutions have not yet shown clear signs of buying back.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
The market has been interesting these days.
Gold first fell below $4000, then rebounded to around $3900 today; oil prices dropped more than 3% due to news about Iran negotiations. On the other hand, large tech stocks have pulled back about 11% over the past three weeks, but Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on U.S. tech stocks today.
I think the most worth watching now is how much selling pressure remains in this AI valuation crash.
Previously, tech and gold were too crowded; when the market turned, everyone deleveraged together. Now, with U.S. Treasury yields falling and oil prices starting to ease, several factors pressuring tech stocks are relaxing.
My own $SNDK long position is still losing, and I haven't dared to add heavily to my tech holdings.
If semiconductors stop falling and U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, I will start seriously looking at this round of oversold recovery.
What’s really interesting recently is that capital is starting to find direction again.
$SNDK $XAU With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats contested, the midterms could reset the practical limits on Congress's fiscal, legislative, and oversight agenda. The reported $233M in crypto-linked political donations makes the sector's policy exposure unusually visible, but spending alone cannot tell us which rules will emerge.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 【Nonfarm payrolls expected at only 55,000, market still waiting for the Fed to continue raising rates】
At 21:30 Beijing time on November 6, the US will release October nonfarm payrolls. The latest market expectation is an increase of about 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. The Fed just kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% last week, but two officials directly voted in favor of a rate hike, and the probability of a December hike has risen to about 73%. This nonfarm report is essentially a test of whether the Fed has reason to continue tightening.
Inflation remains the Fed's biggest headache: core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, higher than the previous 3.0%; meanwhile, initial jobless claims were only 194,000, with no obvious worsening in layoffs. Employment growth is weak, but companies have not carried out large-scale layoffs, which actually gives the Fed room to continue raising rates.
This nonfarm report can be seen as a confirmation battle for rate hike expectations. If new jobs significantly exceed expectations and wage growth also strengthens, US Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to be supported, putting pressure on risk assets like $BTC; if employment is significantly below expectations, the market would have reason to bet on a pause in rate hikes. Rate hike expectations are already very high, so ordinary weak data may not be enough; the weakness must be sufficiently obvious to truly reverse market pricing.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The real main theme this week is not in the crypto circle, but in AI earnings reports. The Q3 reports from the three major cloud providers point to the same thing: revenue is rising, but free cash flow is being eaten up by capital expenditures. The on-chain US stock contracts have directly priced in this expectation.
$xINTC Intel was the first to have problems, with earnings below expectations and a single-day performance marking the worst in fifty years. AI money is not evenly distributed; laggards are punished very quickly.
$xMU Micron's on-chain perpetual contract is at 907, higher than Friday's after-hours 889, indicating funds are moving forward in the storage price increase cycle; AMD's on-chain is 513, also higher than after-hours, but its lifeline depends entirely on its data center share, so earnings week volatility will be amplified.
$xNVDA Nvidia's on-chain is 204.8, unchanged from after-hours price, indicating the market has no new expectations for it and will price it on earnings day.
On-chain quotes can price Monday in advance but can be withdrawn before the earnings release.Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.59%, with the first-level pair scale about $165; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact proportion.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is already inverted. Near-month annualized +2.63%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.06%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.38%. If there is no positive executable spread, do not place orders based on the positive spread strategy. Why did $SOPH rise in the morning and fall in the afternoon today?
1. Extremely crowded short positions triggered selling pressure
The current market funding rate is -0.1272%, indicating extremely crowded short sentiment in the market. When shorts heavily short, if the price rises in the morning, it often faces huge pressure from short covering or short selling at highs, making it difficult for the afternoon market to hold and eventually leading to a decline.
2. Dense sell orders above create obvious resistance
From the order book depth, there is a clear "sell wall" of sell orders above. For example, at price levels 0.001525 and 0.002025, the order volume is very concentrated. This means bulls need to consume a large amount of funds to "eat through" these sell orders when pushing the price up. When buying power is insufficient to break through these resistance levels, the price naturally pulls back downward.
3. Sellers actively offloading at high levels
According to VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) data, the average active sell price within 15 minutes (0.00146673) is higher than the average active buy price (0.00145839). This detail shows that recently, buyers tend to accumulate at lower prices while sellers are more actively offloading at higher prices, and this trading behavior directly causes downward pressure on the price. I guess that in ten years, prediction markets will be like the weather forecast in your wallet; when checking the progress of Ethereum upgrades, you can conveniently see the probabilities given by the market. However, the odds will also be driven by sentiment and capital, so I’m hesitant to take them as true probabilities. Unlike holding spot assets, here settlements must be made according to agreed conditions. If it’s written as a strategy, I suppose I’d first have to spend time understanding the question: what exactly counts as a "successful upgrade"? Otherwise, by the time the code is running, everyone might still be arguing about the question.$COMP
Compound's importance comes from its role in decentralized lending rather than short-term market narratives. Lending demand, borrowing costs, collateral quality, and protocol security are central to its long-term position. Competition across DeFi lending markets is intense, so maintaining capital efficiency and attracting sustainable borrowing activity remain significant challenges. Ethereum has dropped like this for a reason.
The Americans' crypto buying counter was emptied in October.
Throughout October, Americans withdrew $1.6 billion from this counter.
It was the coldest month since it opened.
Five weeks, each week worse than the last.
The counter is called an ETF; it's the window through which Americans buy crypto with money.
From July to September, this counter was still receiving $3 billion.
In October alone, more than half ran away.
Ethereum is now at $2,299.
An analyst drew a line, saying 2295 is the bottom.
Just a tiny bit away. Almost broken.
Don't rush to bottom-fish.
Just watch whether the counter is receiving or sending out money this week.
If it's still sending out, it's not the bottom.
$ETH #Ethereum#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Considering the current market expectations and valuation levels, my core judgment is: the performance figures themselves are very likely to still exceed expectations, but the threshold for "meeting high expectations" has been raised extremely high, and the stock price faces significantly asymmetric risks, 10月31日11:34 UTC，以太坊发生一次1个区块的重组（reorg）。一笔10 ETH的充值恰好在被丢弃的区块里，THORChain已经观察到并记了账。这笔兑换没达到限价被退款，金库于是退出了从没收到的10 ETH；用户在正式链上的那笔充值也被退了一次。 THORChain说，所有节点都察觉到了重组，但本该撤销这笔充值的复核没能及时得出结论，记录就被确认了。偿付能力检查自动暂停ETH兑换，约2分钟内节点停止ETH签名，随后节点投票暂停其余链。截至11月1日的公告：ATOM、BCH、BSC、BTC、DOGE、ETH、LTC、SOL、TRON、ZEC暂停，AVAX、BASE、RUNE、XRPL照常。用户已主动退回10 ETH，金库恢复偿付。 更要紧的是官方原话里的风险：既然已公开，每次外部链重组，恶意者都可能用同一nonce发新交易，从金库领钱。修复还在做，没有公布恢复时间。Chainalysis还指出，这次暂停意外拖慢了币安被盗资金经THORChain跨链洗币的速度。 给开发者的提醒：以太坊大约2个epoch（约13分钟）才算最终确定。凡是"看到充值就记账"的桥、交易所、支付和AIThe hacker story grabbed the headlines, but it was macro data that pushed $BTC to 77,732. Strong GDP and sticky PCE inflation revived rate-hike expectations, and that repricing—not a fundamental collapse—drove the sell-off. The damage showed up in leverage: more than $1.3 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 86% of the total. That ratio matters. When one side of the book is that crowded, a modest macro shock becomes a forced unwind, and the price move overs$XAU Gold and silver are more likely to first rebound and then continue to decline.
There is currently no reliable bottom-fishing signal in the major gold cycle. When it broke below the 3950–4000 support range, it closed with a large bearish candle with almost no lower shadow, indicating weak support below and that bears firmly control the market. Observing on the four-hour level, this round of decline is likely not over yet, and further dips to 3800 cannot be ruled out. In the short term, there may be a recovery, with a rebound testing the 4000 level, but this is just a pullback during the downtrend and should not be considered a trend reversal. To confidently go long, a rebound close to 200 dollars in magnitude is needed, followed by 2–4 weeks of consolidation to form a clear bottoming pattern; if even a decent rebound cannot be achieved, beware of the market further dipping to 3400–3600.
In my judgment, this gold cycle is a deep monthly-level correction that may last 6 to 12 months, and the bottom has not yet been reached. What we can look for are weekly-level rebound opportunities within the major downtrend, which carry relatively high risk.
Before this round of gold adjustment ends, I will temporarily not consider positioning silver long; the monthly-level target for silver remains in the 35–40 dollar range.
Risk warning: This is only a personal market view and does not constitute trading advice
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $LIT LIT (Lighter) License Status
Core Objective: Apply for two licenses from the U.S. CFTC
• DCM: Designated Contract Market
• DCO: Derivatives Clearing Organization
✅ Current Progress:
• No formal application has been submitted yet, nor has any approval been granted
• Announced at the Q3 investor call on October 21: plan to submit the formal application in November 2026. Currently in the "pre-communication, pending submission" phase, purely an expectation narrative, the license has not been obtained yet.
Official Statement Update (Latest)
◦ Founder Vlad said in podcasts and interviews: "licence application is pending," meaning materials are being prepared and pre-communicated, which does not mean it has been officially submitted for processing; he himself is on the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, which is only an advisory role and does not represent an approval fast track or license endorsement.
Key Market Expectation Gap
◦ ✅ Positive Narrative: Once formally submitted, it will be the first wave of strong catalysts; if the license is obtained, integration with Robinhood targeting U.S. institutions will be the main market speculation theme #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Analysis of the subsequent impact of the non-farm payrolls on the trends of BTC and gold!
$BTC $XAUT Is Trump about to lose Congress? Midterm election countdown, 70% odds right before your eyes! Will US stocks and BTC be repriced again?
On November 3, the US midterm elections will officially take place.
Kalshi data shows the market-implied probability of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate is 70%, while the probability of the Republicans sweeping both chambers is only about 6%.
This does not mean Trump himself will lose, but that the Republicans may lose control of Congress.
① Will Trump's policies face obstacles?
If the Democrats control both chambers, it may become more difficult for Trump to push tax cuts, fiscal legislation, and regulatory reforms. Tariff policies will also face more political battles.
② Is there really a bottom-fishing pattern in midterm elections?
In 2018, the Nasdaq bottomed in December, while in 2022, the S&P 500 bottomed early in October.
JPMorgan statistics show that since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in the 12 months following every midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%.
But historical patterns do not guarantee repetition.
③ Will $BTC rebound accordingly?
BTC is currently still fluctuating around $78,000.
In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin's important lows appeared after the midterm elections.
④ Where is the real opportunity?
The market has already priced in election expectations. If the results meet expectations, there may not be big swings; if surprises occur, it could trigger sharp volatility. Will this time first dig a deeper hole?#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The most vulnerable link has never been the news that hasn't passed, but that everyone treats it as if it has already passed. Do you remember who was the first to be thrown off the car during the last round of meme frenzy caused by ETF rumors? When I saw Canary submit an ETF application for $PEPE, my first reaction was not excitement but alertness. Because such news is most likely to push expectations too far ahead during volatile phases, with prices running first and emotions heating up first, but the actual implementation has to wait for the SEC to complete the S-1 process, and the S-1 has no fixed approval timeline; submitting the application does not equal approval. In other words, the market is currently trading more like a "possibility premium," not a certainty of positive news. I noticed a detail: $ZEC was also rapidly lifted recently due to ETF-related news, indicating that current funds are extremely sensitive to the "compliance narrative," even if the target itself is quite controversial. This sensitivity is a double-edged sword. On the bullish side, $PEPE obtaining application qualification itself will strengthen the compliance imagination of the meme sector. If BTC and ETH volatility converges and risk appetite warms up, the leading meme in altcoins is likely to receive tentative buying first, and the spread of sentiment will drive sector rotation. The bearish risk lies in the fact that there is no timetable for approval, and after the news heat fades, the chips chasing highs will become the most vulnerable layer, and when volatility amplifies, these expectation-driven positions are often the first to be cleaned out. So now I am more focused on three signals: whether $PEPE can hold key support after volume expansion, whether internal shifts appear in the meme sector$BTC has never lost money in the 535 days before a halving
Three data points. Skeptics call that luck. Holders call it supply math
The next halving lands in April 2028"A 7.03% drop brought a 140% gain, but a floating profit of 0.04U can be wiped out by a single rebound at any time."
$AKE 20x short, 0.00612→0.00569, +140.52%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound about 0.35% for this 140% to vanish completely.
What does 0.35% mean for $AKE? A normal upward wick, or even a large order surge in the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately going long — just a technical rebound is enough to erase it.
20x leverage magnifies a 7.03% drop into 140%, and likewise magnifies a 0.35% rebound into zero. It gives you huge percentages but is always ready to take them back.
So I never decide to close based on "how much I’ve earned," only on how far it is from the cost line. A 0.35% buffer looks like room, but the asset’s volatility never makes sense.
Only one move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ TRX has shown relative strength, rising steadily during the session and approaching highs, contrasting with the weakness seen in most altcoins. The stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee revenue within the TRON ecosystem have always been the fundamental support for TRX, and during market risk-off phases, investors prefer established public chains with real use cases. Recently, capital has clearly favored defensive assets, making TRX appear more resilient. However, after a short-term continuous rally, attention should be paid to whether turnover at high levels accelerates; if trading volume continues to expand, the strong structure will be more convincing. $TRX💰 0.125 ETH, once valued up to $100 million, but now only 10.19 million left
There is a detail on-chain: In April 2023, someone exchanged 0.125 ETH (about $240 at the time) for a batch of PEPE, which at its peak was valued close to $100 million. Two and a half years later, the holdings at the same address have dropped to only 10.19 million, a drawdown of 89.81% — not because of selling off, but because the asset itself fell back.
He is still adding: the latest purchase was 45.08 billion tokens, funded by selling 600,000 SPX (about $210,000). At the current price of 0.00000482, that equals exactly $217,000 — this is a full position swap, not just a casual buy.
On the other side, addresses related to Justin Sun are accumulating PEPE, amounting to $51.25 million, about 3% of the supply. The community is talking about an ETF and token burn; the former is just an application submission, and the latter has not been confirmed. PEPE dropped 3.41% today; whales buying on the dip doesn’t mean you should too.
Conclusion: This is a story of concentrated chips, not a reversal. Whether it can hold above 0.0000050 is more important than who is adding positions.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $84,324
Stop Loss (SL): $71,832
• ETH — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $2,561
Stop Loss (SL): $2,012
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR Non-farm payrolls are coming, will the December rate hike change? This Friday night at 21:30 (Beijing time), the US October non-farm payroll report will be released, which will likely determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and whether BTC can break out of the 78,000 sideways range.
📌 First, look at market expectations
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 60,000 new non-farm jobs in October, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Last month (September) only added 29,000 jobs, far below the previous expectation of over 80,000; the average monthly increase over the past 12 months was only 45,000.
📌 What is the Fed's current stance
On October 28, the Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, with the two dissenting members advocating a 25 basis point hike. Subsequent data showed Q3 GDP annualized growth at 3.4%, and September core PCE year-over-year at 3.1%, indicating inflationary pressure remains significant. Currently, the futures market prices the probability of a December rate hike at around 75%–80%, with the decision announced at 3 AM (Beijing time) on December 10.
📌 Three scenarios, each with different impacts on the crypto space
1️⃣ Non-farm payrolls greatly exceed expectations (over 100,000), unemployment rate does not rise: December rate hike is basically confirmed, the US dollar strengthens, BTC and ETH face short-term pressure.
2️⃣ Meets expectations (around 60,000): rate hike expectations basically unchanged POL's recent trend has been weak, and trading volume has not significantly increased during the pullback, indicating that the pressure is more naturally due to a decline in risk appetite. POL is linked to the Polygon ecosystem upgrade and aggregation scaling narrative, and the market will subsequently focus on on-chain user activity, transaction activity, and enterprise cooperation progress. The key now is not just the technical roadmap, but whether the ecosystem can convert its technical advantages into sustained usage demand. In the short term, if it can recover and stabilize within the recent consolidation range, market sentiment may have a chance to shift from defense to recovery. $POL$BTC
The number of active Bitcoin addresses has dropped significantly from its peak, but the daily average transaction volume hasn't decreased much. At first, I thought the on-chain activity had cooled down, but then I read the second part and thought, huh? Why didn't it drop together? I don't plan to change my holding strategy for now; instead, I want to first review the statistical criteria of these two indicators. Fewer addresses don't necessarily mean people have left; who exactly is supporting the remaining transactions?On the first day of lifting $BNB withdrawals, 3.64 billion flowed out, but OKX only absorbed 370 million, and Hyperliquid only absorbed 240 million.
The remaining 3 billion, because people no longer trust exchanges, all moved to their own cold wallets. So there is no winner in this incident.
BNB has lost a lot of user confidence, now holding at the 200-day moving average around 690–700, with resistance above at 730–760. Its on-chain adoption is not its own brand, and its valuation is anchored in capital operations, which has become a burden now. BNB is currently suppressed by the hacker incident and is estimated to possibly break below 700 at any time.
$HYPE, although a spillover beneficiary, actually not that much. It works as a narrative, but it’s a bit forced to consider it fundamental growth. The long-term fundamentals still depend on ICE bringing Hyperliquid onto the compliant US stock market, especially since even Druckenmiller has invested in TradeXYZ, which is its biggest structural positive this year.
$OKB also benefited from this capital flight event, but the reason is that OKX attracted users with heavy subsidies. So today it rose the most in the CeFi sector, making it the strongest defensive position in this market. It has already reclaimed the 7-day moving average at 112 and the 20-day moving average at 113.2, recovering the position lost last Friday. The 30-day moving average at 117.4 is the next hurdle.Shenzhen Intermediate People's Court disclosed a case
An employee transferred the company's coins, considered as embezzlement, with the amount appraised according to the exchange rate on the day of the incident, totaling more than 2.58 million yuan. Everyone is celebrating that "coins are also considered property," but the really interesting part is the latter half — virtual currency pricing is not allowed domestically, yet the court must first set a price to convict.1,000,000 Possible Bitcoin Futures
We just finished a 48-hour machine learning run simulating 1 million paths — incorporating macro shocks, dollar debasement, AI agent economies, adoption curves, and more
Median path lands $BTC at ~$280K by 2028Wallet 3M219K transferred out a total of 26,081.63 BTC from 11-01 14:11 to 11-02 14:03, transferred back 5,312.94, net decrease of 20,768.69, with the balance dropping from 173,885.66 to 153,116.97 (starting balance taken before 11-01 14:11).
According to Whale Alert, it is labeled as "Binance," and Onchain Lens also calls it Binance cold wallet; both are third-party annotations.
Three transactions: 17,548.10, 3,984.27, 4,549.27. Today, two transactions each had 3,000 sent to the same address bc1qhp7n.
After receiving, bc1qhp7n immediately sent out dozens of multi-output transactions, which is the pattern of exchange batch withdrawals. According to BTCPulseData, it is labeled as Binance withdrawal hot wallet.
The "Binance outflow" reported by Whale Alert may be an internal Binance transfer.
Today's 3,984.27 and 4,549.27 are the same amounts as the two transfers on 08-01 and 08-13.Looking at the XAUT USDT daily chart from late October to early November 2026, the price is sitting around 3897.1 after dropping sharply from a high near 4210.7. Similar to past market corrections where heavy red volume candles push moving averages downward, this recent slide shows strong selling pressure. Looking at old up and downs, major drops often test lower support before finding a solid bounce. My all time best prediction is that price might dip slightly to test deeper support near 3850 I always thought the blockchain would be crowded during a bull market, but looking at the data, it's as quiet as during the New Year.
The 30-day average of active Bitcoin addresses is now 629,000, compared to 1.1 million in December 2024, a sharp drop of 43%, not even reaching the annual average of 702,000.
The strange thing is the money is still moving. The daily average transfer volume is 819,000 BTC, only 5.4% less than the peak. People aren't coming, but the money keeps moving.
So I guess the ones left on-chain now are the whales—one person equals what used to be ten, so the transfer volume naturally doesn't drop. As for retail investors, they might all be resting in exchanges, too lazy to even open their wallets.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ From current data, Circle faces a core contradiction in Q3 between "scale expansion and profit realization mismatch." Although the total circulation of USDC is about 70 billion tokens, there was a net redemption of about 800 million tokens within 7 days as of October 29, indicating a short-term contraction in demand. More critically, about 95% of revenue depends on reserve interest; now the reserve yield has dropped from 4.14% to about 3.5%, while Q2 distribution costs reached $412 million (of which about $325 million was paid to Coinbase), resulting in only about 7 cents of net profit left for every dollar earned.
Therefore, the focus of the November 4 earnings report is not on revenue figures (market expectations are about $790 million), but on how management explains the divergence of "volume growth without profit growth." If distribution costs and downward pressure on interest rates cannot be alleviated, even if USDC payment business continues to expand, profit realization will remain under pressure. After the $XPL flash crash, don't rush to talk about opportunities.
Yesterday it dropped directly from 0.086 to 0.069. Among 16 related wallets, 12 withdrew about $2,038,600 margin in advance. HLP passively took long positions and lost about $556,000. But before the first liquidation, it had already fallen, so we can't simply blame these wallets for the crash.
Now it has bounced back to around 0.07 in 1 hour, but each rebound is weaker than the last, with no short-term reversal. On November 25, about 228 million tokens will be unlocked, adding supply pressure ahead. The price trend has been mediocre since launch, and the rebounds have lacked sustainability.
For this kind of asset, it's better to miss the rebound than to catch a coin in a downtrend.An unusual combination has appeared on the Bitcoin blockchain: fewer people, but the money hasn't decreased much.
As of November 1, the 30-day average of active addresses is 629,000, down 43% from the peak of 1.1 million in December 2024, and about 10% below the annual average of 702,000. Looking at this number alone, it is a very typical mid-bear market characteristic—nearly half fewer people open their wallets daily.
But another metric hasn't collapsed. The 30-day average daily transfer volume is 819,000 BTC, only down 5.4% from the peak and about 5.5% higher than the annual average.
The two curves are moving in opposite directions, which is key. The number of addresses measures "how many people are using it," while the transfer volume measures "how much money is moving." A 40% drop in addresses with almost no change in transfer volume indicates that the ones exiting are small, low-frequency addresses, while the remaining players are those making larger single transactions. There is no bleeding on-chain, just a change in the holder structure.
This also explains why the price often feels like "no one is catching the falling knife, but it’s not crashing either." Selling pressure comes from large addresses, which remain active; retail investors watching from the sidelines only make the address count look bad but do not directly turn into sell orders.
However, a caveat: transfer volume may also be inflated by whales or exchanges consolidating funds, which does not represent new demand. More accurately, it is existing funds moving, with no return of new users, so network activity has yet to sustainably recover.
The focus is not on price but on when 629,000 will climb back above 702,000. A rebound in addresses is the signal of new money entering the market. SOL accounts are 78% long, but active trades are only 56%; XRP faces a liquidation zone at 123 million; ADA shorts are paying, but the price remains sideways
$SOL Many longs, but money hasn't followed
Open interest of $4.4 billion is still increasing, with longs accounting for 78.6% of accounts, but active long trades only 56.6%. More troubling, a certain whale deposited 1.49 million SOL to exchanges within 10 days. Crowded accounts, trade divergence, and large holders moving positions—94 is the long defense level; if broken, the crowded positions could turn into fuel.
$XRP Below 1.229 is the liquidation zone, above is the 200-week moving average
Below $1.229 is the main long liquidation zone, with about a 54% chance of being tested within 24 hours. But the 200-week moving average lies between 1.25 and 1.28, which was also the starting point of the August rally. Leverage is cooling off, open interest has dropped to $1.38 billion, and much of the excessive leverage has been cleared. 1.229 is a local bottom or a pause in the downtrend.
$ADA Shorts are paying, price is sideways
Funding rate is -0.021%, shorts are paying to hold positions, long-short ratio is 0.79. Given this sentiment, the price should have dropped, but it only dipped by two cents after a whole afternoon of sideways movement. Negative funding rate, crowded shorts, price not falling—either no one is buying, or shorts are stacking themselves as fuel.
Summary: Watch if SOL holds 94.35, XRP eyes the 1.2292 liquidation zone, ADA watches 0.2143 sideways to see who gives up first
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $AKE This is a 20x short position, entry at 0.01141, target at 0.00567, floating profit +1,006.13%.
Subtracting the two numbers: 0.01141 minus 0.00567 equals 0.00574, which corresponds to a 50.31% change based on the entry price. Multiplying by 20x results in the four-digit figure shown on the screen—perfectly aligned.
What actually happened is that the "target was halved," not that the "account multiplied tenfold." Restoring this clarifies the other side as well: to recover the cost, it needs to rise by 101.23%. If it falls by half, it must double to get back—not a miscalculation, but a change in the denominator—and when the market turns, it follows the latter path.
From the trend perspective: the center of gravity is at 0.00567. Downwards: 0.00560 around 1018, 0.00550 around 1036, 0.00540 around 1053, 0.00500 around 1124, 0.00450 around 1211, 0.00400 around 1299; upwards: 0.00570 around 1001, 0.00580 around 983, 0.00600 around 948, 0.00650 around 861, 0.00700 around 773, 0.00800 around 598, 0.00900 around 422, 0.01000 around 247, 0.01100 around 72, 0.01141 zeroed out, near 0.01198 broken through. First take a position, continue following if it breaks 0.00550, and move on if it stands above 0.00600. $BTC $ETH Dage Market Watch
Withdrawal resumed next door. To be honest, the resumption of withdrawals in 28 fiat currencies sounds like good news, but it is not a signal that the "alarm is lifted."
Let's clarify the situation first: Binance was hit at the end of October, and withdrawals were closed for nearly two days. Now they are reopening in phases. USD, AED, VND are among the newly reopened ones, totaling 28 fiat currencies. But if you glance at their network status page—LINK, WBTC, HYPE are still not fully restored, and BTC, ETH, USDT are only "partially restored," meaning not every chain allows free withdrawals.
My view is simple: just because the channel is open doesn't mean you can relax.
During the previous period of "can buy but can't withdraw," the hardest part wasn't how the K-line moved, but that you wanted to run but couldn't. Now that fiat withdrawals are possible, it's a relief, but on November 1st, Binance had a net outflow of nearly 3.6 billion USD, with more people withdrawing than depositing. What does this indicate? It means many people, like you and me, first react by moving money out rather than rushing in to buy the dip.
So don't interpret "fiat withdrawal resumption" as "all bad news is out, time to go long." It's more like: the door has opened a crack, but there are still a few feet stepping out behind it.
To sum up in one sentence: channel restoration is fixing the door, not the starting gun. When the door opens, first confirm if your position can get out before thinking about where to rush in. When the market is grinding you down, being able to withdraw and sleep well is more valuable than any indicator.
Dage is done speaking, follow, $BTC $ETH Observation: ETF net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks, only Fidelity FETH is buying
Current price 2298.8, up 1.1% in 24 hours, trading volume $227 million, slightly stronger than BTC's 0.1%
The question is who is selling. Last week, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $432 million for the 5th consecutive week, with BlackRock's ETHA alone outflowing $391 million
The only one buying against the trend is Fidelity FETH, with a net inflow of $63 million in one week. The divergence among large institutions is now on the table
Coinbase premium index has recovered from -0.21 on October 29 to -0.13. US buying is returning but has not yet turned positive
2295 is a key level many analysts are watching. The current price is just above it. There is no Fed meeting in November; what can influence it this week is Friday's employment data. If it falls back below 2250, a reassessment is needed. $BNB
Yesterday someone in the group said Binance is done for this time. I didn't respond.
Those days were indeed scary. $6.3 billion hot wallet disappeared, BNB dropped sharply from 750 to 678, with $46 million traded that day, usually only over $10 million a day.
Four days later, now at 711. 24-hour low 704, high 718, volatility less than 2%.
On-chain funds are still moving out. Newsflash says Binance Bitcoin wallet balance has dropped for four consecutive days, down 23,000 BTC compared to before the attack, roughly $1.8 billion at current price.
So the money is less, but the coin price hasn't dropped. Contract positions of $53.8 million haven't been withdrawn, and the fee rate is still slightly positive.
My view is that the market treats this as operational risk, not credit risk. Withdrawals are not blocked, fiat channels have even added USD, so people are reluctant to run.
The first sign of real trouble is not a few points drop, but inability to withdraw.
So for BNB, I neither short nor long, just watch it digest this matter on its own.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #Binance Hacker Tracking EP01｜Continuous Updates
4 days after Binance was hacked, the major funds on-chain have not moved: 1.35 billion USDT and 823 million USDC remain on the blacklist (on-chain recheck at 11/2 16:38). On 10/30, Binance stated it had verified and frozen about 3 billion USD.
ETH side: 0x8532 received 197,460.01 ETH, none has been transferred out so far.
SOL side: AffzF (marked as Binance_Hacker by Arkham) currently holds 425,182.56 SOL; Eze86 received 485,270 SOL on 11/1 and has not moved it since. On 11/1, via Relay, 838.26 SOL was exchanged for about 1.02 BTC, consolidated to bc1q8xnar and not transferred out.
Today 11/2: From 12:14 to 15:16, AffzF transferred out 35,640.78 SOL in 8 transactions, of which 35,288.25 SOL was swapped via Jupiter into 3,326,295.56 USDC, then split into small amounts and distributed to over 60 addresses. As of 16:20, no cross-chain bridge or known exchange deposits have been seen. After 16:02, AffzF lost about 5,900 SOL more; the destination is still being tracked.$BTC failed to close above the 50-week EMA but successfully closed above the 50-week MA again.
Now, the next two important levels are $78,600 and $80,000.
If it reclaims these two levels, BTC may start the next wave of rally.$SNDK
SNDK climbed from 1152 to 1198 today, now at 1185, up only 1.4% intraday.
On the day of the dump, the volume was 1.25 million contracts; now it's 170,000 contracts, one-seventh. It's the fourth day of the rebound, and volume is shrinking day by day.
There’s no shortage of news. SK Hynix and Samsung stocks are both rising, and Morgan Stanley says global data center capacity could reach 316GW by 2030, making the storage sector sound hot again.
But on the token side, contract open interest at $107 million hasn’t increased, the fee rate is 0.016%, and longs are still paying to support shorts. Stocks follow their own logic; when I buy this token, I’m buying the sentiment of the US pre-market.
Last week I chased at 1374 and cut at 1171. Looking back, cutting was right, but I didn’t have the guts to buy at 1117.
If volume doesn’t come back, I’ll just treat it as a shadow of the stock.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ As the US midterm elections enter their final stretch, political momentum is shifting, and Wall Street and crypto markets are on high alert. A shift in the balance of power in Congress could radically alter the trajectory of fiscal spending, international trade/tariffs, and digital asset regulation. If control of Congress flips, here is how different asset classes and markets are likely to react first: 1. 🪙 Crypto Policy & Digital Assets (The Immediate React) Regulatory Clarity vs. Gridlo#OKX Global Asset Convenience Store
From CEX Affiliate to X Layer Cornerstone: The Absolute Scarcity of $OKB and the "On-Chain Digital Tax" Narrative
From continuous deflation to "absolute scarcity." In August 2025, OKX will permanently burn approximately 65.25 million OKB in a one-time event, locking the total supply at 21 million and removing the functions of additional issuance and manual burning. This ends the quarterly buyback and burn mechanism that lasted for years, shifting OKB's scarcity from "traffic-driven" to a rigid constraint at the contract level. Correspondingly, the narrative focus moves from relying on exchange profits to the intrinsic value of the on-chain ecosystem.
Gas is the baseline; staking and governance are the upper limits. As the only native Gas token of X Layer (OP Stack L2), OKB is the fundamental consumable for all on-chain transactions. However, the low Gas design means that simple transfer demand has limited pull on the token. Thus, OKB upgrades from a "consumable" to a quasi-access credential for on-chain production resources.
The carrier of the "on-chain digital tax," not a second BNB. OKB no longer offsets centralized trading fees on OKX; its value logic is deliberately decoupled from the CEX and fully migrated to the on-chain entry formed by X Layer and OKX Web3 Wallet. The essence of this choice is to let OKB bear the value capture of the infrastructure layer within the X Layer ecosystem—the more prosperous the ecosystem, the more rigid the demand for native resources and staking access.
Shifting from an exchange platform token to an X Layer ecosystem value anchor BTC's October decline matters, but the sharper warning is the demand backdrop: US spot ETF outflows of $643M on Oct. 30 followed four days of inflows, while the Coinbase premium has remained negative for 38 days. Miner revenue is strong, yet revenue per hashrate fell. That mismatch leaves any recovery dependent on renewed spot buying.
#BTCMarketSignalsDiverge $LIT This is probably a rumor. The project team stated that they have negotiated with the CFTC to apply for a decentralized exchange license, and it might pass the review before $HYPE!
The key point is that the project's official Twitter has no related news. If true, an official announcement might only come after progress is made.
Today, LIT's rebound is clearly better than other coins, which may have already been reflected in the price 🚀.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Bitcoin is often said to have:
A sharp drop in September and a sharp rise in October,
Even National Day rallies, Christmas rallies, and Spring Festival rallies.
Essentially, these are cyclical patterns like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword.
Historical data does show tendencies, but they are very fragile.
It seems to have "seasonality," but statistically it is not significant.
The sample size is too small (only once a year), and the volatility is too high.
Randomly shuffling and rearranging the month labels many times
Often produces illusions like "a particular month is especially strong."
Academic research on the cryptocurrency market
Also repeatedly points out that the monthly effects in crypto are not robust.
When market structures change (spot ETFs, institutional funds,
macroeconomic interest rate environment, leverage liquidation mechanisms),
The old calendar effects naturally become distorted.
Why are these "rallies" so easily mythologized?
1. Survivorship bias + narrative demand
Market participants naturally like simple, shareable stories.
"Uptober," "Black September"
Easy to remember, easy to chant, easy to tweet, so they get reinforced repeatedly.
The truly failing years are selectively ignored.
2. Confusing correlation with causation
Past Q4 strength may just be a coincidence of overlapping
halving cycles, liquidity easing, year-end fund
reallocation, and other multiple factors,
Not because it is October that causes the rise.
3. Holiday rallies are even more so
Spring Festival, Christmas, National Day "holiday effects"
Might have had influence when liquidity was poor and participant structure was simple in early days,
But now the market is 24/7,
Global trading, dominated by institutions and algorithms.
$BTC #非農來襲，12月升息會否生變？ 昨晚在$BTC 78000一线提示开空，这次又踩准了节奏。本周主基调仍是向下，这个判断没变。顺着这个思路，反弹就是布空的机会，这样做至少不会被套、不会挨亏。这波下跌不是加密独有：黄金$XAU同步重挫，美股也在跌。在全面失血的格局里，加密凭什么独自走强？维持看空，72000目标不动摇。$ETH 同样承压，宏观端#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧，风险资产难有像样的反抽。 真正值得琢磨的不是又对了这一次，而是市场还在用"加密独立行情"的旧框架思考。当$XAU和美股同时走弱，资金是在做全资产降杠杆，而非板块轮动。这意味着反弹的持续性会被系统性压缩——每一次回升都更像逃生窗口，而非趋势反转。$BTC 78000的空单之所以有效，恰恰因为它顺应了这种跨市场的共振下行，而不是赌单币种的强弱。 $ETH 的处境更能说明问题：它既没有独立叙事支撑，又要承受宏观预期的摇摆。12月加息路径的分歧本身就是压制项——不确定性越高，资金越倾向于先减仓再观察。这种环境下，任何反弹都缺乏承接盘，布空的胜率自然高于抄底。 确认信号看两点：一是反弹时成交量是否萎缩，二是$XAU与美股能否止跌。若两者继续同步走Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$XPL small-scale dual-side costs are close, large buy orders are more expensive. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.06%/0.06%, for 100,000 it is 0.55%/0.32%. Small-scale dual sides are close, large-scale one side is significantly more expensive. Apple Earnings Night: Squeezing Out Timing Distortions, Then Watching Three Lines
After the U.S. market closes on November 2, Apple will release its new earnings report. Don’t just focus on the consensus of $113.3 billion in revenue and $1.98 EPS; there are at least three layers of noise behind the numbers.
First, look at the iPhone. Bank of America has already warned that the launch timing of the iPhone 18 and the foldable Duo are out of sync, posing a risk of overestimation in the Q4 revenue model. If hardware growth is distorted by timing differences, the apparent strength or weakness is unreliable; only by removing timing effects can true demand be seen.
Next, look at gross margin. The price increase of storage chips is no longer a distant thunder; inventory buffers and pricing power are gradually exhausted, and the pressure is passing on to Apple. Once this lifeline of gross margin is breached, valuation pressure will hurt more than a revenue miss.
The services business remains the ballast. Market expectations are for about 14% growth; it is highly profitable, supports premium valuation, and is the part of Apple’s valuation most feared to be disproven.
Finally, the first quarterly call with new CEO John Ternus. Whether the guidance for next quarter is conservative or optimistic will reset the pricing anchor for the coming quarters. Apple’s valuation is not cheap, and any flaw will be magnified. This earnings report is not simply a matter of good or bad, but a triple test of squeezing out distortions, assessing resilience, and listening to guidance.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单