Orbit Post Sitemap
This time, it’s not the stock market falling by 5%, but the 10-year US Treasury yield crossing the 5% threshold again. It acts as the "pricing anchor" for global assets; once it stabilizes, funds will withdraw from stocks, gold, and commodities, flowing into more certain US dollar assets, causing market volatility to increase significantly. The reasons behind this are not complicated: US inflation has fallen less than expected, delaying the pace of rate cuts; meanwhile, the large supply of US TrI want to share with everyone a few ways to look at market trends.
【1. One big bullish candlestick doesn’t mean an uptrend.】
If it rises for one day, I’m not in a hurry to call a reversal. What I’m watching for is whether it can continue to strengthen afterward.
【2. A rebound after a crash doesn’t mean the correction is over.】
I reviewed the recent 7 historical samples where the Nasdaq 100 index dropped more than 5% in a single day and had a complete three-month outcome. Only 3 times did it rebound the next trading day. By the 5th trading day, 4 times it was still below the closing price on the crash day.
This time, on November 5th it dropped 6.36%, and on November 6th it rebounded 1.35%. A rebound the day after a drop can happen, but it can also fall back again after a few days. Be prepared for both scenarios.
【3. Over a longer time frame, the outcome might be different.】
Still looking at these 7 cases, 6 of them closed higher after three months. Compared to the closing price on the crash day, the 7 samples averaged about a 12.8% increase.
My view is simple: find good targets for dollar-cost averaging, maintain patience and discipline, and that’s the most important way to stay in the game.🚨 November's L1 competition is shifting from slogans to real usage and security verification. Three pieces of news put together, worth thinking about where funds are focusing. ① ETH: Ethereum Foundation disclosed Nov 6, Glamsterdam test found some contracts may be affected by EIP-8037, 8038, developers decided to postpone Hoodi hard fork, first check compatibility. This is risk control at test stage, not mainnet failure. Short-term beware upgrade expectation failing, later watch audit fixes, teMy two short positions are still floating in profit, but I'm actually hoping the market takes a hit first 😮
In 24 hours, the whole network exploded with 61.38 million, longs accounted for 69.5%, and 47,579 people were eliminated. But in 1 hour, it reversed; shorts were lifted by 5.11 million, more than twice the other side.
ZEC is the most typical case: in 1 hour, shorts lost 358,500, longs only lost 33,500, more than ten times difference, and open interest even increased by 1.62%. The more the cuts, the more people take over. BTC and ETH are the same, with more shorts in 1 hour, only SOL is the opposite 😅
I'm not afraid of the hit, I'm afraid no one takes the hit. Bulls don't give up, bears don't concede, positions just keep draining like this, no one can calm down.
After the explosion, the market calms down, then I dare to think about the next step.📊 Market Insight: Capital Is Playing Defense, Not Chasing Direction.
🔶 $ETH : The 2180 call and 2343 short positioning suggest a focus on volatility and hedging rather than a clear directional bet.
🔶 $SNDK : Dip buyers are struggling to stop the decline, showing weak demand and shrinking market confidence.
🔶 $AKE : Holding near 0.005182 in a tight consolidation. Unlike SNDK, selling pressure appears limited, but volume confirmation is still needed.
#USJobsBeatExpectations A French bank was robbed of more than $133 million, and in the end, it wasn't the police or the bank's risk control that uncovered it, but a person monitoring addresses on the blockchain. Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed to CoinDesk that fraudulent transactions occurred but refused to disclose the exact amount, only emphasizing that customer funds were not affected. Lawyer Renato Mariotti named ZachXBT as the person of the week, citing that the clues were traced by him.
The wording of the statement is worth close attention. They admit fraud but don't say how much, and first assure that customers are safe — the order itself is the answer: the stolen money was on the bank's balance sheet, not the depositors' funds. Depositors' money is backed by reserves, but the bank's own money is not.
The real highlight is the investigation path. Traditional financial theft cases rely on internal audits, judicial assistance, and cross-border evidence collection, with timelines measured in months. This time, the clues came from on-chain traces: addresses, transactions, timelines, all publicly verifiable and immutable. An independent investigator can get ahead of institutions because they don't need permissions, only patience.
The market impact is indirect and won't change the short-term direction of $BTC or $ETH. But the signal is becoming clearer: on-chain transparency is shifting from a privacy flaw to a foundation for accountability. $SOL, with its high-frequency ecosystem, has the most transaction counts and the densest traces.375 days — BTC mining difficulty this time "can't break the peak," longer than about 364 days after the 2011 crash, and also longer than about 253 days after China's mining ban in 2021.
The peak is about 155.97T, occurring on October 29, 2025, around block 921,312. Every adjustment since then has been below the peak. The mid-year low is about 124.93T, roughly 20% below the peak; after two increases in October, it is about 148.36T, still about 4.9% below the peak.
Bitcoin.com News roughly verified this record against Mempool.space around November 7. The next adjustment is expected around November 13, with Mempool.space currently estimating a further drop of about 5.2% — the estimate fluctuates with block production and is not final; if the trend holds, the peak break will be pushed further back.
Why it matters: Difficulty below the peak does not mean the network security has collapsed; block production still follows the roughly ten-minute target; it more reflects miners' margins and hashrate reallocation, not that the coin price will crash or that miners have been wiped out.
Confidence: Medium-high | Mempool.space difficulty history, media double-checked. What do you think — is this long delay more like miners enduring a cycle, or is the hashrate being diverted? $BTC The overnight market can be the most misleading. Bitcoin is hovering around $75,900, with almost no price movement and noticeably weaker trading activity. Liquidity is thin, and sudden price spikes can trigger stop-loss cascades even when overall market participation is low. The 1-hour volume has dropped sharply from around 299 to just a handful of trades. For now, neither buyers nor sellers seem willing to make a decisive move. My strategy tonight: • Avoid opening fresh positions in low-liquidiNovember 9
$SNDK has a long-short ratio of 9.15, but the funding rate is 0. I don't like this combination.
The price dropped from 1100 to 834, RSI is 24.7, technically indeed oversold. But 90% of accounts are long, with a long-short ratio of 9.15—after a 24% drop, the bulls not only haven't fled, they are crowding together.
The funding rate is even more subtle: previously the bulls were paying (+0.054%), now it’s zero. It’s not balanced; the bulls can’t afford to pay anymore, but they still hold their positions. The basis is -0.073%, contracts are cheaper than spot, bulls hold positions but the market offers no premium.
Downside: if 797.97 breaks, 90% of longs will be forced to liquidate, and with such thin liquidity, the stampede won’t have a decent exit price.
Upside: if 855.98 recovers with volume, the short covering at 9.15 ratio will be ready fuel.
The news-driven 24% drop has been largely priced in, but before the 1:8 stock split on November 20, liquidity structure will change, and many haven’t entered positions yet.
My view: now is neither a position to chase shorts nor to bottom-fish. Oversold only means the odds of going down have worsened, not that the direction has reversed. Wait for 855.98 to recover before considering longs, or wait for a secondary clearance after breaking 797.97—between these points, watch more and act less. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 Ethereum 2236, down 0.42%, weaker than Bitcoin. Here are three points for you, read them and then sleep:
1. The 2222 level has been tested twice today and bounced back both times, but the bounce height is getting lower each time, which is called a weak rebound.
2. If it breaks below 2210, no need to discuss, just exit, don’t try to guess the bottom.
3. If you want to bottom-fish, wait until 2232 holds firmly, don’t catch blindly at 2236.
Bitcoin 75900 remains steady, Ethereum is dropping on its own, this kind of divergence is usually not a good sign.
#ETH #BTCLooking at my $ZEC short position showing 1184% ROI, then checking the chart, I can see why the bulls are struggling. ZEC dropped sharply from 1388 to 1235 and is now hovering around 1264. The recovery still looks weak. On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are tangled around 1260, showing no clear direction. MACD has produced a weak golden cross below the zero line. The histogram bars are barely visible at 0.49, suggesting that bullish momentum remains limited. For now, this looks more liConclusion first: On 11-07 at noon, I posted about $ONE, saying it was +61.2% in 24 hours, ending with the question "With this depth, would you chase?" Today's answer: those who chased above 0.0019 are currently at a floating loss of 8%~29%.
1. This is not consensus pricing. The 1H candle at 00:00 on 11-08 touched 0.0024798 as the peak, current price is 0.00176, down 29.1%. Three-day trading volumes were 45.59 million, 129 million, and 75.33 million USD, peak open interest was 3.548 million, now 2.552 million, down 28%. 24-hour trading volume is 99.95 million against open interest of 2.55 million, a 39x turnover.
2. No one is taking the bids. Perpetual contract volume is 99.95 million, spot ONE-USDT only 5.3 million, a difference of 18.8 times. The order book shows twenty levels with bids at 60 and asks at 64 USD; when I posted on 11-07, it was 5100 bids and 2500 asks.
3. Funding rate turned negative. At noon on 11-08, it was still at the floor price +0.00005, then turned negative for three consecutive periods: -0.0511%, -0.3096%, -0.2478%, meaning shorts are paying longs. Those chasing longs weren't killed by shorts, they just didn't wait for the second bullish candle.
Lesson: With 39x turnover and structural reversal, first ask "Who is setting this price?" 7 days +52.2% paired with the same day -23.1%, this is not a trend, it's a meat grinder.
When you chase, do you look at the gains or the depth? #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's Q2 financial report numbers are highly likely to be "impressive" (with an outperformance probability of about 60%-65%), but this is purely "accounting fluff."
The profit relies entirely on the paper revaluation gains from OpenAI's valuation rising from 852 billion to 1.25 trillion USD. But behind the impressive numbers lie three thorns:
1. Market disbelief: Analyst consensus actually expects a slight loss; no one treats this one-time unrealized gain as real profit.
2. Debt drain: Issued $11 billion in high-yield bonds (coupon 9.75%), doubling financing costs; CDS has surged to a two-year high.
3. Doubtful momentum: OpenAI's target fundraising amount has shrunk, valuation expansion slope has slowed, leaving less room for the next revaluation.
The better the income statement looks, the louder the alarms on the balance sheet; leverage levels and cash flow gaps are the real lifelines of this financial report. $OPENAI XPL's "most fatal flaw is that the long position ratio is as high as 71%," this extremely crowded chip structure means that above are all retail leveraged traders who are trapped and holding on desperately. The main force "is very likely to pierce down through the bottom edge of the box again, using a panic-driven volume surge to thoroughly cleanse this batch of bloodied leverage." In other words, from the flash crash on November 1 to November 8, although XPL has experienced a significant decline, the long positions have not been effectively cleared. The market structure remains a "powder keg" that could ignite at any time. Under this structure, the decline itself becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: as long as there is a small downward pulse in price, it will trigger a batch of forced liquidations of highly leveraged longs; the sell orders generated by forced liquidations further depress the price, triggering the next batch of forced liquidations. The decline "an hour ago" is very likely another routine outbreak of this mechanism under the 71% long position ratio, not necessarily requiring a new external catalyst. Macro background: The liquidity vacuum in altcoins continues. This short-term decline cannot be separated from the higher-level macro background. As of November 8, Bitcoin's price remains suppressed below $76,000, and the entire crypto market is heading toward its fifth consecutive week of decline, with major altcoins generally recording double-digit drops over the past seven days. Market sentiment on November 8 remains in the "fear" zone (Fear and Greed Index at 28), and the previous sell-off of AI tech stocks has not eased risk appetite suppression. In this environment, mid-to-small cap tokens like XPL, with a market cap of only about $272 million and a daily trading volume of about $27 million,Rocket Lab Q3 Earnings Preview: I Choose Yes!
After the U.S. market closes on November 9, $RKLB will release its Q3 earnings report. Although currently 74% of people choose No, I am more optimistic about revenue exceeding expectations.
The reasons are clear:
① Increased launch frequency. In Q3, Electron completed 6 launches, higher than Q2's 4 launches, supporting growth in launch service revenue.
② Strong order backlog. At the end of Q2, the backlog reached $2.36 billion, a 137% year-over-year increase, providing a solid foundation for continued deliveries in the aerospace systems business.
③ Modest revenue expectations. The market consensus is about $257 million, with the company's guidance ceiling at $265 million. I believe actual revenue has a chance to exceed $260 million.
The Neutron delay is indeed a negative factor but has limited impact on this quarter's revenue.
#RocketLab財報前瞻：Neutron火箭進展如何？ A single $ETH options buy order at 2180 paired with a short position at 2343 — this combination itself is a statement of attitude: not betting on direction, but betting on volatility pricing errors. Most people focus on "what if I lose money buying options," but overlook that the hedging structure has already dismantled the one-sided risk — the real signal is not in profit or loss, but in the timing when such positions start to appear intensively. The most worth pondering narrative in this market cycle is the "confidence vacuum" in high-level assets. After $SNDK plunged sharply in a single day, bottom-fishers rushed in, but the market did not respond, and the price continued to fall. What does this indicate? It shows that the inertia logic of buying on dips is failing in a stock game lacking incremental funds. Bottom-fishers have become liquidity providers rather than trend initiators. The $ETH options + short position combo is precisely a rational product in this environment: since direction is hard to judge, use structure to create space. Looking at $AKE, it is consolidating at a high level with an average price of 0.005182, and holders choose "if it doesn't move, I don't move." This seemingly passive statement actually hides an underestimated judgment: the rule that long consolidations lead to declines is effective only if chips quietly change hands during consolidation. Once turnover stalls and both bulls and bears are unwilling to add positions, the rule itself dulls. The current high-level stalemate of $AKE looks more like selling pressure exhaustion rather than a buildup for a drop, forming a subtle contrast with $SNDK's failed bottom-fishing — one fell with no buyers, the other is high with no sellers. What people most easily underestimate is this kind of "structural differentiation." Everyone is used to applying a unified directional approach 🔥The market is most prone to misjudgment when prices stop falling but genuine buying pressure remains unseen!
This weekend, BTC fluctuated repeatedly around $75,000, with no panic selling and no strong rebound. On the surface, it looks calm, but the capital data is not reassuring.
📉 On November 6, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $411.9 million, ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about $93.3 million; BTC ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $1.282 billion last week. The total stablecoin market cap dropped about 2.23% over the week, indicating that the on-chain USD liquidity pool is also contracting.
🧩 Another detail: BTC contract open interest decreased over the weekend. The price did not drop significantly, possibly because previous long positions were cleared and some shorts started taking profits, leading to a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. But this is only a possible explanation and does not confirm a bottom.
🧭 Next, I will monitor spot trading volume, ETF capital flows, and contract open interest changes. Only if spot volume increases with price rises and ETFs show continuous inflows will there be more reason to be optimistic about the rebound's sustainability. Do you think the short side is weakening now, or have the bulls not truly returned yet? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #RocketLab financial report ahead: How is the progress of the Neutron rocket? 🔥In the current market, the most important thing is not to rush to bottom-fish, but to distinguish clearly between price stabilization and capital inflow!
Over the weekend, BTC fluctuated around $75,000 without continuous panic selling, but the capital side remains weak. On November 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $411.9 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $93.3 million; last week, BTC ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $1.282 billion, and the total stablecoin market cap dropped about 2.23% in one week.
⚠️ Taken together, these signals indicate that institutional and on-chain funds have not yet shown strong offensive intentions. The decline in contract open interest may also mean that leveraged funds are withdrawing, and the market is entering a brief cooling-off period.
📊 But I will not directly turn bearish because of this. The price has not continued to drop sharply, which may mean selling pressure has eased or that bulls and bears are temporarily balanced. The real direction still needs to be confirmed by subsequent trading volume and capital flow.
🛡️ Today, first check your BTC-related positions: whether your total position is too heavy, whether stop-losses are set in advance, and whether single-trade losses are within your tolerance. Without confirmation of capital inflow, don’t rush to add leverage. Are you choosing to stay out and wait now, or keep a small position to observe? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Conclusion: Leaning Yes, confidence moderate.
Earnings report time: After market close on November 12 Eastern Time (early morning November 13 Beijing Time)
Reasons supporting an upside surprise:
1. Full-year guidance pressure — The company reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0–3.4 billion. The first three quarters met expectations at only $1.887 billion; if Q3 is just $906 million, the full-year baseline depends entirely on a Q4 surge. Management has motivation to push volume.
2. Physical basis for capacity — Contracted power target raised from 4GW to 5GW, indicating deliverable computing power is increasing.
3. High contract quality — Q2 signed order value quadrupled quarter-over-quarter, new customer contracts increased more than ninefold quarter-over-quarter, 70% include customer prepayments covering 50–60% of capital expenditures. This is not just empty promises.
4. Improved pricing power — Rates for older generation GPUs are also rising, capital expenditure payback period shortened from 2–3 years to 1 year 10 months.
5. Low policy exposure — Projects located in Missouri, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, avoiding data center areas 🔥Don't be fooled by the appearance that BTC didn't continue to plunge over the weekend! Price stabilization and capital inflow are two completely different things.
💸On November 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $411.9 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $93.3 million. Looking at the entire period from November 2 to 6, BTC ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $1.282 billion, with only Wednesday showing a net inflow in five trading days. Meanwhile, the total market cap of stablecoins dropped about 2.23% over the week, so the capital environment cannot be considered loose for now.
📊BTC is fluctuating around $75,000, with trading volume below recent normal levels, and contract open interest has also declined. This may indicate that some leveraged positions are exiting, and the bulls and bears are temporarily balanced, but this does not mean the main players have started bottom-fishing.
⚠️I prefer to wait for three signals: spot volume expansion, continuous net inflows in ETFs, and ETH and major altcoins strengthening simultaneously during the upward movement. Without these combined, don't rush to treat a short-term rebound as a trend reversal. Today, are you more focused on whether the price has stopped falling or whether off-exchange funds have truly returned? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 🔥BTC did not crash over the weekend, nor did it rally strongly, but this is not necessarily good news! What is truly worth watching out for is that while the price has temporarily stabilized, off-exchange funds have not yet shown a clear return.
📉 First, let's look at the fund data: On November 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $411.9 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $93.3 million; from November 2 to 6, the BTC ETF experienced a cumulative net outflow of about $1.282 billion over five trading days. The total market cap of stablecoins dropped about 2.23% over the week, also reflecting a contraction in the on-chain USD liquidity pool.
⚠️ Next, looking at the market structure, BTC oscillated around $75,000 over the weekend with low trading volume, and contract open interest also declined. My understanding is that this currently looks more like a temporary balance after funds have reduced risk, rather than the start of a new round of bottom-fishing.
🧭 Going forward, the key points to watch are whether spot trading volume can recover, whether ETFs will continuously turn to net inflows, and whether there is real buying support during BTC’s rebound. Price not falling does not mean funds have entered the market. Do you think the market is building a bottom, or are funds still waiting for a lower level? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Despite setbacks in the Neutron narrative, this Q3 earnings report is unlikely to look bad, with clear revenue support:
· Revenue and guidance: Wall Street expects revenue of about $257 million (up 66% year-over-year), company guidance range is $250-265 million, median $257.5 million, basically matching.
· Launch business: Q3 Electron completed 6 orbital launches (4 in Q2), launch revenue is expected to increase from $44.6 million to about $59.8 million.
· Space Systems: Q2 revenue already reached $189.5 million, combined with a full quarter contribution from Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions, expected to exceed $200 million, the current main driver of revenue growth.
· Backlog: At the end of Q2 reached $2.36 billion (up 137% year-over-year), about 45% of which is expected to be recognized in the next 12 months, providing strong short-term visibility.
The real concern lies in profit quality: the company's Q3 GAAP gross margin guidance is 29%-31%, significantly down from 36.1% in Q2; adjusted EBITDA is expected to show a loss of $17 million to $23 million. Although revenue growth is fast, profitability improvement has not kept pace. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Despite setbacks in the Neutron narrative, this Q3 earnings report is unlikely to look bad, with clear revenue support:
· Revenue and guidance: Wall Street expects revenue of about $257 million (up 66% year-over-year), company guidance range is $250-265 million, median $257.5 million, basically matching.
· Launch business: Q3 Electron completed 6 orbital launches (4 in Q2), launch revenue is expected to increase from $44.6 million to about $59.8 million.
· Space Systems: Q2 revenue already reached $189.5 million, combined with a full quarter contribution from Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions, expected to exceed $200 million, the current main driver of revenue growth.
· Backlog: At the end of Q2 reached $2.36 billion (up 137% year-over-year), about 45% of which is expected to be recognized in the next 12 months, providing strong short-term visibility.
The real concern lies in profit quality: the company's Q3 GAAP gross margin guidance is 29%-31%, significantly down from 36.1% in Q2; adjusted EBITDA is expected to show a loss of $17 million to $23 million. Although revenue growth is fast, profitability improvement has not kept pace. Maji just cashed out BAYC, then immediately pushed his chips onto the ETH long table. Over the past five days, he sold 15 NFTs, losing about $505,000, only cashing out $223,000; yesterday he sold another BAYC for 12.5 ETH (about $28,000). The funds recovered did not exit the market but were instead used to increase a 25x leveraged long position.
Current bet:
· Long position size: 540 ETH
· Leverage: 25x
· Entry price: $2304.23
· Liquidation price: $2203.40
· Current unrealized loss: about $32,000
The signals on the other side are not friendly: BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week, institutions are withdrawing, but Maji is holding on. Faith and leverage stacked together mean the buffer before the liquidation line is thin.
Will ETH save him this time? Or will the next bearish candle answer for the market.The market is heavily leaning bearish, but I don't think the bullish scenario should be ignored. According to Hyperliquid positioning data, whale BTC shorts have reached their highest level since October 2025, with net short exposure nearly twice the size of longs. Meanwhile, ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. However, crowded bearish expectations can create opportunities if price refuses to break lower. Key BTC levels: • $75K – First important support. • #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's net profit for the quarter was ¥347.3 billion, far exceeding Bloomberg's consensus analyst forecast of ¥166 billion, and the 18% year-on-year decline was also better than market concerns.
The profit driver was Intel, not OpenAI. SoftBank's Intel shares surged 216% that quarter, contributing about ¥1.3 trillion in one-time revaluation gains. OpenAI's valuation remained flat compared to the end of the previous quarter, with no revaluation, contributing zero to SoftBank's investment gains or losses. In the previous quarter, OpenAI contributed about $25 billion in valuation gains, but this quarter the core engine directly "shut down." Dragged down by this, the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit was only ¥5.427 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%.
SoftBank has cumulatively invested $44.6 billion in OpenAI, with a fair value of $89.6 billion, nearly doubling the book profit, but this is a cumulative figure, not a new contribution for the quarter. SoftBank has committed to a final investment of about $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, with part of the funds coming from a $40 billion bridge loan, even pledging Arm shares. Betting on unrealized AI valuations with certain assets is a more worrisome signal behind the financial report.
When OpenAI's valuation stalls, SoftBank's profit engine slows down accordingly—this is a direct reflection that the "heavy bet" has yet to translate into sustainable profitability.
$OPENAI $AI $AKE At the 0 o'clock settlement, $ZEC longs paid shorts 0.0936%. Seeing this number and shouting that longs control the market makes me want to laugh a bit.
Those willing to pay to hold positions, frankly, it just means there were many crowded on the long side at that time and they were anxious. But once the settlement passed, the lowest price could still be seen at 1235; yesterday the price was still fluctuating around 1310–1330. If there was really that much driving force, would the price drop right after paying the fee?
High fees only indicate that longs were very crowded at that time, not the direction. The money that needed to be paid was paid, but the price was still not pushed up. Positions first paid the cost.
As for what happens next, this number itself doesn't give me an answer.🔥For BTC to sustain its rebound, relying solely on short covering might not be enough! In October, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% and wage growth also surpassing forecasts. The more resilient the employment, the less pressure the Fed has to cut rates quickly, which has intensified bets on a rate hike in December.
💵The rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of risk assets; when Treasury yields become more attractive, some funds may choose to wait and watch rather than chase BTC. Coupled with weak flows into spot ETFs, for the market to form a sustained uptrend, it needs stronger spot buying to take over.
⚠️But don’t equate macro headwinds directly with price drops; the market may price in these factors early or readjust expectations after the CPI release. Watching the market today, the key is to observe whether BTC’s rebound is supported by volume and spot demand, rather than just short-term price spikes. If only contracts are driving the move and spot lags, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. Remember, funding rates and liquidation data can only assist judgment, not replace spot trends. Do you think BTC’s next move is more constrained by a lack of buying or by macro positives? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 165K jobs are not the whole story; revised numbers are also changing expectations
Don't just focus on the addition of 165,000 people; the data for the previous two months was revised upward by a total of 84,000, which will also affect market judgment.
Looking at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $SOL as a reference, price about $89.14, down 1.11% in 24 hours; OI 24h -4.8%, fee rate +0.0062%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price and open interest are falling together, risk appetite is contracting, and spot follow-through still needs observation.
BTC’s OI is increasing while SOL’s OI is shrinking; capital’s reaction to macro news is inconsistent.
If employment continues to be resilient, interest rate expectations may be harder to ease; are you more concerned about new jobs or historical revisions?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's heavy investment in OpenAI results in a strong Q2 financial report only due to valuation gains on paper, not actual realized profits. The performance heavily depends on OpenAI's valuation changes, representing a high-leverage AI bet that looks good short-term but carries significant long-term uncertainty.
Positive: The rise in OpenAI's valuation brings substantial fair value gains, boosting SoftBank's net assets and book profits, which is the core support for this quarter's results; SoftBank uses this to anchor itself in the general AI track and to build out the computing power ecosystem story.
Risks: The gains are unrealized and lack cash flow; OpenAI itself continues to incur large losses and has yet to prove its commercialization; SoftBank keeps selling assets and increasing leverage to fulfill funding commitments, with investment concentration too high. If AI valuations correct downward, the financial report will quickly come under pressure, risking a repeat of past investment pitfalls.Big brother, this position clearly shows a large capital move. The total scale of perpetual contracts is about 600 million USD, with $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all shorted simultaneously, using 5 to 7 times leverage on the full position. The opening positions are generally high, and currently, the combined floating profit of the three short orders is close to ten million USD, with funding fees still continuously flowing in. Looking at the leverage alone, it’s not aggressive; the liquidation price is far from the current price, clearly indicating a long-term short squeeze strategy to earn fees and add positions on pullbacks.
But what really needs attention is not the floating profit, but the volume. Such a large short position concentrated on three mainstream assets means that once the market shows a strong rebound, large holders are very likely to actively take profits and close positions. The massive short covering will create a push similar to "short fuel," potentially triggering long liquidations and a follow-up rally. Don’t treat large capital directions as ironclad rules; oscillating rebounds can disrupt the rhythm at any time. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Weekly Review｜ETF Funds, Leverage, and Price: Which Signals Are Truly Useful?
This week, BTC first surged to about 81,000, then sharply dropped to about 75,000 on Thursday, and afterward traded sideways around 76,000.
📌 Cause and Effect Ranking
On Thursday, the entire network liquidated about $1.25 billion, nearly 90% of which were long positions (CoinGlass rolling 24h), acting more like an amplifier of the decline rather than the cause. Spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.28 billion over 5 trading days this week, with inflows only on Wednesday, indicating a weak capital flow, but the flow data is delayed and price and flow influence each other.
✅ Useful Signals
1. Whether ETFs have continuous outflows and if the price can hold during outflows
2. Whether leverage is truly cleared after liquidations or quickly added back
3. The Fear and Greed Index at 28 only indicates a cold sentiment and cannot be used alone as a bottoming signal
🔭 Next Week's Watch
The US October CPI is scheduled for release on 11/10 (Tuesday) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
· If ETFs turn to inflows and the price holds above 78,000, the rebound may continue
· If outflows persist and the price breaks this week's low, leverage may be liquidated again
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Last Wednesday afternoon, the number of $USELESS token holders suddenly surged by 40%, but the average holding per address dropped from 1,200 tokens to 380 tokens, a typical "breaking up chips and distributing to retail investors" pattern. Short 10x at 0.1369, exit at 0.12847, 61.57% profit.
A surge in address count combined with a sharp drop in average holdings is a textbook distribution signal, but Meme coins can also "fake distribution and then pump" to shake out shorts.
The break-even line is firmly welded, the mark price is not the transaction price, and slippage will bite. Withdrawal capital is firmly welded to stop losses on the move. If you missed it, wait for the next structural cycle. $BTC $ETH Price and Market Overview
As of early November 2026, SOL is in a clear correction cycle, showing pressure in performance:
· Price Level: Recently fluctuating between $89 - $95, down nearly 47% from the 52-week high of about $172; the decline in just the past month ranges from 13% to 19%.
· Market Cap and Staking: Total market capitalization is approximately $53 - $56 billion. Although the annualized staking yield is about 5.23%, 4.82 million SOL have been unstaked in the past month, indicating some holders are exiting.
· Capital Outflow: The stablecoin supply on the network decreased by $1.6 billion during the same period, reflecting a decline in capital activity within the ecosystem.
Despite the weak coin price, the Solana network completed its most significant technical upgrade in history in October 2026:
· Alpenglow Consensus Launch: Activated on the mainnet on October 21, this was the first full consensus mechanism replacement, compressing transaction finalization time from about 12.8 seconds down to 150-196 milliseconds.
· Block Time Halved: On October 9, through an upgrade, the target slot time was shortened from 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds, further enhancing network throughput.
· Performance Positioning: This upgrade makes Solana highly competitive in real-time financial scenarios such as high-frequency trading, stablecoin payments, and RWA (Real World Assets). Capital flow in one sentence: $BTC withstood a $416 million ETF outflow, holding price near 75,784, with resilience driven by capital flow dependence rather than a rebound in risk appetite.
Even though market discussions are dominated by $BTC ETF outflows as high as $416 million, $BTC still maintains around $75,784. This resilience is noteworthy, indicating that despite selling pressure, the price has not significantly broken down. However, it should be clear that current support depends more on whether capital flow remains stable rather than broad risk appetite driving it. In other words, the market relies on capital support, not a recovery in sentiment. If outflows accelerate again, this assessment will be challenged. This is not financial advice. $BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Negative factors dulling, not equal to bottom confirmation
Bitcoin is reported at $75,799, Ethereum at $2,234.69, both slightly down intraday but hugging the lower edge of the near one-week range: BTC is at the 14.4% percentile, ETH only 11.7%. Over the past three days, both have dropped 5.93% and 7.95% respectively, with the seven-day decline narrowing to 2.51% and 1.27%. The sideways movement after continuous pullbacks looks more like a pause in selling pressure rather than a signal of stabilization.
Notably, negative factors are not few: continuous outflows from ETFs, stolen funds from Binance being moved, changes in US regulatory expectations, and bearish community discussions, yet prices hardly dip further. Behind this is the fact that leveraged funds have been cleared in advance—open interest decreased by 1.42% in 24 hours, liquidations around $60 million, down 70% from the previous day; funding rates are positive but only 0.0087% for BTC and 0.0061% for ETH, bulls dare not rush ahead, bears have no intention to aggressively attack. The long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, all pointing to low-level wait-and-see.
Therefore, the current market is not "all negative factors exhausted," but rather "negative factors dulling." Reduced floating positions lower the momentum for further sharp declines, but the lack of incremental buying makes rebounds difficult to proceed smoothly. In the short term, it is more likely to maintain weak oscillation, waiting for new directions from funding or regulatory aspects. It is too early to treat the sideways movement as a bottom. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Neutron is the core of Rocket Lab's mid-to-long-term valuation and also the biggest highlight of this earnings report. The project has been postponed again to its maiden flight in 2027, with the main bottleneck focused on manufacturing defects in the first stage carbon fiber tank; progress on the engine, fairing, and second stage subsystems is relatively smooth, but the tank issue will extend the overall testing cycle, increase R&D expenses, and delay the realization of medium-sized reusable launch revenue. Market expectations have already been lowered, but management's statements during the call regarding the tank process rectification, testing plans, and cash burn pace remain key variables for short-term stock price fluctuations. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 78%.
The previously anticipated easing trades are facing repricing, and beyond macro pressures, institutional funds are also withdrawing. Last week, US spot BTC saw the largest weekly outflow since the end of June.
This means BTC is currently facing not only interest rate pressure but also a shortage of incremental funds. Short-term rebounds can come from short covering, but to form a trend reversal, spot buying and ETF funds need to re-enter.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in Q3, cash reserves hit a new high $BTC $ETH Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in Q3, cash reserves hit a new high: This company, known for "waiting for the right opportunity," is simultaneously piling up cash to new highs while increasing its buybacks of its own stock. The Q3 earnings report released on November 7 shows Berkshire's operating profit for the third quarter was about $12.7 billion, down 5.8% year-over-year from about $13.48 billion in the same period last year, mainly dragged down by a decline in insurance underwriting profits. More eye-catching is the capital move: the company repurchased about $9.6 billion of its own stock during the quarter, exceeding about $4.5 billion in Q2 and about $234 million in Q1, marking the largest single-quarter buyback in the company's history. As of September 30, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities totaled about $377.4 billion, a new record high, also higher than about $365.5 billion at the end of June. This set of figures carries an important implication. The continued increase in cash indicates management still believes that high-quality external targets are not cheap enough and prefers to keep money in U.S. Treasuries; at the same time, the $9.6 billion buyback shows they consider their own stock price more attractive relative to intrinsic value. On one hand, they remain inactive on acquisitions; on the other, they buy back their own shares, essentially saying "external prices are expensive, our own is relatively cheap." This move happened after Greg Abel succeeded Buffett as head of the company, with buyback intensity more pronounced than in Buffett's later tenure. For the crypto market, this signal is not easy. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating slightly around $76,076 (24-hour $BTC price just slowly moved near 76,000. However, the funding rate is very low, basically hovering around zero. The market seems to be continuously moving up, but the open interest in both 1-hour and 4-hour contracts hasn't increased. Short-term positions are even slightly decreasing.
The price is rising but open interest isn't increasing, which is a bit surprising. On-exchange funds show no active willingness to go long. This rebound isn't driven by increased long positions but more like a passive push from short covering. Both long and short sides on the leverage end are cautious. The market lacks new buying momentum to follow through.
Looking at a larger timeframe for position, this rebound just hit the daily resistance near 76,000. Several moving averages on the 4-hour chart are pressing downwards, with EMA20 continuing to slope down. The 1-hour EMA20 is also below EMA50. The daily structure is overall bearish, and the rebound momentum is weak. There are many sell orders above, and without volume expansion, it's hard to break through.
I am bearish on the outlook. Strong daily resistance is blocking above the current price. Without long position follow-through on the sentiment side, the market is likely to face resistance and move lower next.
$ETH $SOL #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have erased all inflows for 2026. Approximately $26.1 billion in sell-offs have completely offset the $25.6 billion net inflows accumulated year-to-date. This reversal marks one of the most dramatic sentiment shifts since the launch of this crypto investment vehicle. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded negative returns this year, indicating that the pullback has spread from Bitcoin to the broader digital asset space. The synchronized outflows show that investors are broadly reducing crypto asset exposure rather than rotating between crypto products. Drivers of the fund withdrawals This round of sell-offs results from a combination of macro pressures and internal crypto market factors. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have reduced the appeal of risk assets, while profit-taking after last year’s gains has accelerated redemptions. The liquidations also highlight the growing importance of basis trading and arbitrage strategies in ETF fund flows: as futures premiums narrow, previously driving arbitrage trades become unprofitable, forcing funds to unwind positions. Macro headwinds: Expectations of prolonged high interest rates and stronger bond yields have dampened market interest in volatile assets. Basis trade unwind: Narrowing futures premiums have reduced cash arbitrage profits, triggering mechanical outflows. Momentum reversal: After strong performance in 2025, trend-following and momentum funds cut exposure when prices broke key technical levels. Impact on market structure The scale of these redemptions is significant because ETFs have become a primary source of marginal demand for Bitcoin. The ongoing outflowsThe long liquidation scale below is approximately $3.06 million, while the short liquidation above is only about $760,000, making the price structurally more prone to being "pulled down." A large number of pending orders are concentrated around $0.072, about 7% lower than the screenshot price of $0.10076; whereas the upward space to $0.0787 is only about 1.7% (based on data at the time of writing). This means that the current spot risk-reward ratio for chasing longs is roughly 1.7% upside potential versus 7% downside risk, which is a typical negatively skewed trade.
Regarding funding rates, data varies across different time periods: some periods saw the CAP rate in negative territory at -0.0172% (4 hours), superficially indicating shorts are paying; however, combined with the nearly stagnant price and slightly expanding open interest, a more reasonable interpretation is that funds are probing the crowded direction rather than shorts dominating. Regardless of the rate's sign, the core fact remains: long positions are already quite crowded, and the sustainability of marginal buying is weakening. 401(k) rules entering White House review does not mean pensions will immediately buy crypto
Rules entering review do not mean retirement accounts will immediately allocate crypto assets. The Labor Department's 401(k) alternative asset rules have been sent to the White House for review, focusing on performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and complexity.
Looking again at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $ETH as a reference, price about $2,234.31, down 0.63% in 24 hours; OI 24h -0.1%, fee rate +0.0055%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price has fallen but open interest is almost flat, temporarily more like waiting for direction rather than new leverage entering clearly.
BTC and ETH contract data reflect trader positions but cannot prove retirement accounts have bought in.
After implementation, it also depends on whether trustees adopt it. Do you think pensions will allocate BTC first?
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Solana's LST and restaking sector has been pushed to the extreme. On the surface, APYs are all above 7%, but when breaking down the yield composition, the real external MEV and inflation subsidies vary greatly within the high staking returns.
Comparing these three targets:
$JTO: The absolute leader in Solana LST and MEV. Mechanically, the protocol distributes most MEV income to stakers, and the JTO token has the JIP-38 proposal design. However, the pain point is that the "fuel" for its buyback flywheel heavily depends on transaction activity on the Solana chain. Once the Meme craze cools down, the buyback strength will shrink accordingly.
$MNDE (Marinade): The earliest native LST. Mechanically, it focuses on a decentralized validator set and uses part of the staking fees to buy back MNDE. But it has been significantly squeezed by rising stars like Jito, suffering serious market share loss. Without top-tier MEV capture capability, its staking yield lacks competitiveness, and token empowerment has become empty talk.
$CLOUD: The new star in LST infrastructure. Positioned as the "LST of LSTs," its mechanism design is complex, attempting to capture value through liquidity aggregation. But currently, the token is purely a governance symbol; the real protocol-generated revenue is not strictly tied to CLOUD, lacking immediate cash flow support.
Conclusion:
JTO is "mechanism works but depends on on-chain transaction heat"; MNDE is "losing share, becoming mediocre"; CLOUD is "narratively clever but zero token capture."Geopolitical risks are heating up, is BTC really a natural safe haven?
Every time there is news from the Middle East, some people immediately call BTC a safe-haven asset. I think this conclusion is too hasty.
Looking at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, funding rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the funding rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present, but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $ZEC as a reference, price about $1,260.58, down 3.88% in 24 hours; OI 24h -5.9%, funding rate +0.0265%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price is falling while positions shrink, funding rate remains relatively high, indicating bullish cost pressure is not low, deleveraging may not be over yet.
The same news affects these two coins differently, showing that capital does not treat $BTC and $ZEC as the same kind of risk.
BTC still has risk asset characteristics, and ZEC’s decline may also be influenced by its own positions. Do you think crypto assets can be considered safe-haven tools?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Just past midnight, my eyelids are fighting to stay open. Before sleeping, I take one last look at the capital flow. Brothers, don’t think that just because the market hasn’t crashed hard now, everything is fine. Look at this capital data — the main players are playing a trick of overtly repairing the plank road while secretly crossing the Wei River. It’s very shady!
$BTC in the short term over the past few hours shows rows of green bars in both contracts and spot, with money pouring in crazily. It looks good, but if you look to the right at the 30-day long cycle, the contract side has a net outflow as high as 8.4 billion, which means short-term funds are just hyping themselves up inside, while big money has long taken advantage of the rebound to pack up and leave. The small inflow on the spot side now is just quietly picking up some bloodied chips at the bottom.
Looking at $ETH, it’s simply unbearable to watch. Although short-term contracts are also seeing money coming in, if you look carefully at the 24-hour spot side, over 30 million has flowed out, and the long-term 30-day contracts have fled nearly 6.6 billion. Ethereum is like an orphan now; once the market shows some resistance, it will definitely be the one smashed the hardest.
Finally, $SOL, although short-term contract funds are withdrawing, switching to the spot side and looking at the long cycle, there’s a net inflow of over 200 million in 30 days and over 50 million in a week. This indicates that some big players are accumulating long-term holdings to support the bottom. Among these major coins, it’s the most resistant to decline.
In summary, short-term rises are all bait; the long-term declines are the truth. Big money is strategically retreating. Let’s not be cannon fodder, keep fussing less, and sleep peacefully.
It’s already midnight. Are you still guarding your screen tonight? Are you holding BTC, ETH, or SOL?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 On November 6, SoftBank shares fell by about 10.8%, and the cost of insuring its debt rose to the highest level since 2022, amid concerns about debt and returns on artificial intelligence investments.
Concerns about debt and liquidity support gold
A sharp drop in tech stocks may support gold
Rising dollar and bond yields put pressure on gold
My reading: The news carries more negative risks for stock markets than it does confirmed positive news for gold. There is no direct relationship guaranteeing gold's rise due to SoftBank's results. Originally waiting for $CT to pull back to 0.12 to go long, but it hovered at 0.12597 for eight hours. Every dip was pulled back, but the upward momentum was weak. @大勇干短线（互动）
Such high-level sideways movement in small coins is most likely distribution, not accumulation. Checking the order book, the buy walls are all fragmented orders propping it up, while the sell orders are in large blocks. Reversed to 20x short, exited at 0.12124, 75.09% profit.
Fragmented buy orders propping the price is the most basic bull trap tactic. Shorting has a high cost but the direction is confirmed. Move the stop loss tight to the breakeven line. For those who missed it, patiently wait for a rebound. $BTC $ETH X Layer Ecosystem Weekly Report｜2026.11.02—11.08
From the overall ecosystem performance perspective, DeFi locked value has rebounded somewhat, but DEX trading volume and active users still face pressure, and stablecoin scale has basically stabilized.
Uniswap has proposed an upgrade to the X Layer fee release mechanism.
Although X Layer has already enabled the Uniswap protocol fee mechanism, its underlying architecture has particularities:
X Layer uses OP Stack as the execution framework
Cross-chain assets still use Agglayer
The OP Stack message bridge cannot directly transfer UNI ERC-20 tokens
The original fee release contract was not adapted to Agglayer
Aave and Spark remain core participants in X Layer's lending and yield scenarios, while Uniswap undertakes the main trading liquidity function.
However, currently ecosystem funds are relatively concentrated in a few mature protocols, and the capital scale of emerging projects is still limited.
X Layer has previously launched two rounds of RWA ecosystem liquidity incentives and initiated an RWA ecosystem token trading competition.
Among them, the first round of RWA liquidity incentive plan announced a total scale of up to 5 million USD, followed by a second round of incentives.
The RWA token trading competition launched in September focuses on enhancing the trading activity and liquidity of ecosystem assets